Before the referendum we were told that the UK had about 1/3 strongly anti-EU, about 1/3 quite positive and about a 1/3 essentially Eurosceptic but not strongly so and fearful of disruption. I think Dave coralled the full forces of the state to get nearly half of that wobbly 1/3 to vote Remain. A creditable result actually. Imagine if he'd been pushing in the right direction though - it'd have been over 60% Leave. After this GE the remain block is going to be somewhat disemepowered. There'll simply be less noise in the HoP (both houses). The power of the state will be coralled into getting on with it. The press will have a decisive GE result to deploy. I suspect this chart may move in a Leave direction later this year. It hasn't moved a jot thus far.
It's the 1/3 of hardcore Eurosceptics I'd like to see detailed polling for. How the strand of opinion that expected the EU to crumble and break up responds to the reality that the EU is strong and will be a permanent feature of European politics for the rest of our lives, that we will be more aware of on a day to day basis on the outside than on the inside, will be instructive.
Ask that question again next May after 5* win the Italian elections. Switzerland, Norway and Iceland have also survived for decades outside the EU
Did Le Pen finally get more votes than Macron in the first round ?
She won more departements and 5* lead Italian polls
On topic - would Yougov have done this tracker if Remain had won?
Yes. But the question is wrong in my opinion.
The question ought to be re-asked "Would you leave or remain" as it is for Scottish independence. "In hindsight" can induce a regret that simply isn't there before the question is put. It is mildly leading.
What is Zac going to do when the Government continues with plans for Heathrow?
Resign and then stand in the by-election. He would look stupid if he didn't. Why was it important to resign last time and not this time ?
But he has to win first.
If he wins, and it is a big if, he will not resign over Heathrow as he will stand against it as many other London conservatives but the important difference this time is that he will not have become a hostage to fortune by saying he would resign over Heathrow
So last time it was an issue about principle. This time, well, it is not that important.
He resigned over the principle but if he is elected the consituents will have endorsed him in full knowledge that he will not resign this time. I do have my doubts about his selection though
Ten months ago today and we were told that economic Armageddon was already happening:
Remainers criticise the £350 million for the NHS figure with some justification, but I can't recall any of them conceding what a load of old bollocks Project Fear has turned out to be. If there was a "big lie" of the referendum campaign it was the wall to wall drivel about the economy from the Remain side, and as you say ten months on we haven't had to resort to cannibalism. Although I dare say some Remainer will now pipe up to say "we haven't left yet".
Don't you find the little footprints particularly amusing? It's almost as if the artist was inviting the viewer to conjure up images of 76 million Muslims marching across English soil.
I think you misunderstand, I'm giggling at you, not a poster.
I realise that you're intensely relaxed about whipping up xenophobia in pursuit of political gain.
I find it disgusting.
Oh well.
Are there any countries you wouldn't enter into political union with?
From that non sequitur I take it that you accept that you are intensely relaxed about whipping up xenophobia in pursuit of political gain. Thanks for confirming.
Well dodged, I'm still curious if there are any countries that you wouldn't enter into political union with.
Before the referendum we were told that the UK had about 1/3 strongly anti-EU, about 1/3 quite positive and about a 1/3 essentially Eurosceptic but not strongly so and fearful of disruption. I think Dave coralled the full forces of the state to get nearly half of that wobbly 1/3 to vote Remain. A creditable result actually. Imagine if he'd been pushing in the right direction though - it'd have been over 60% Leave. After this GE the remain block is going to be somewhat disemepowered. There'll simply be less noise in the HoP (both houses). The power of the state will be coralled into getting on with it. The press will have a decisive GE result to deploy. I suspect this chart may move in a Leave direction later this year. It hasn't moved a jot thus far.
It's the 1/3 of hardcore Eurosceptics I'd like to see detailed polling for. How the strand of opinion that expected the EU to crumble and break up responds to the reality that the EU is strong and will be a permanent feature of European politics for the rest of our lives, that we will be more aware of on a day to day basis on the outside than on the inside, will be instructive.
Ask that question again next May after 5* win the Italian elections. Switzerland, Norway and Iceland have also survived for decades outside the EU
Did Le Pen finally get more votes than Macron in the first round ?
She won more departements
That's like saying a losing football club got more corners. It's meaningless.
The Tories of course won Copeland for the first time in decades in large part because it was a Leave seat and given there are around 400 Leave seats and only 200 Remain seats even if Labour the LDs and SNP gained every Tory Remain seat and won 50 more the Tories would still be ahead because of gains in Labour Leave seats
About 60 seats are in the range 49-51% leave/remain i.e. too close to make any difference at all whether you label them leave or remain.
There are 160 seats that are decisively 60%+ leave and 100 seats that are decisively 60%+ remain. The other 376 seats are in the range 40-60%.
Even gaining all those 60 seats would not produce a Remain majority they have to win 55%+ Leave seats to do that
There is ZERO chance there will be a Remain majority as Tories, UKIP and Labour will all be different shades of Leave in their manifestos. That only leaves LibDem, Green and SNP to form a Remain majority!
What is needed is an effective opposition that promotes the Remain/softest Brexit position in Parliament - and that is where the LibDems, SNP and Greens come in, hopefully with help from some renegade Remain Labour and Tory MPs.
Don't you find the little footprints particularly amusing? It's almost as if the artist was inviting the viewer to conjure up images of 76 million Muslims marching across English soil.
I see one set of footprints in that image. I don't think anyone ever thought every single person from Turkey would move. Though there are twice as many Turks as Poles and there is a greater discrepancy in living standards between the UK and Turkey so we could reasonably predict more than twice as many Turks would emigrate as Poles did.
It really is the apotheosis of Remainer Black-Knightery that they cannot see that Erdogan's frolics have rendered the Turkey card unplayable. I mean, who wouldn't want to be in close political union with an explicitly Islamo-fascist dictatorship?
Don't you find the little footprints particularly amusing? It's almost as if the artist was inviting the viewer to conjure up images of 76 million Muslims marching across English soil.
I think you misunderstand, I'm giggling at you, not a poster.
I realise that you're intensely relaxed about whipping up xenophobia in pursuit of political gain.
I find it disgusting.
Oh well.
Are there any countries you wouldn't enter into political union with?
From that non sequitur I take it that you accept that you are intensely relaxed about whipping up xenophobia in pursuit of political gain. Thanks for confirming.
Well dodged, I'm still curious if there are any countries that you wouldn't enter into political union with.
You're not xenophobic in any way are you?
No, we'll stick with the point at hand. Turkey is not joining the EU. Yet Vote Leave decided that it would campaign on a straightforward lie, conjuring up in the public's minds a wave of hordes of Turkish immigrants. But you are fine with all of that. So you're intensely relaxed to campaign on xenophobic lies.
That's why Brexit is a moral disaster for the nation.
Before the referendum we were told that the UK had about 1/3 strongly anti-EU, about 1/3 quite positive and about a 1/3 essentially Eurosceptic but not strongly so and fearful of disruption. I think Dave coralled the full forces of the state to get nearly half of that wobbly 1/3 to vote Remain. A creditable result actually. Imagine if he'd been pushing in the right direction though - it'd have been over 60% Leave. After this GE the remain block is going to be somewhat disemepowered. There'll simply be less noise in the HoP (both houses). The power of the state will be coralled into getting on with it. The press will have a decisive GE result to deploy. I suspect this chart may move in a Leave direction later this year. It hasn't moved a jot thus far.
It's the 1/3 of hardcore Eurosceptics I'd like to see detailed polling for. How the strand of opinion that expected the EU to crumble and break up responds to the reality that the EU is strong and will be a permanent feature of European politics for the rest of our lives, that we will be more aware of on a day to day basis on the outside than on the inside, will be instructive.
Ask that question again next May after 5* win the Italian elections. Switzerland, Norway and Iceland have also survived for decades outside the EU
Did Le Pen finally get more votes than Macron in the first round ?
She won more departements
That's like saying a losing football club got more corners. It's meaningless.
Not if France had the US system and no runoff it would not have been, Hillary like Macron won the popular vote too of course but Trump more states. The big danger for the EU though is 5* next year which is Eurosceptic without any far right baggage
I note Boris was being quoted on the radio this morning, words I picked up were "Corbyn, terrorism/(t?), sympathiser". The report was about Boris, but noone is voting for Boris in 6 weeks time. People ARE voting for Corbyn (PM/VI r^2 = 0.96 very very very highly correlated). This is the start of the drip drip drip to poison the Labour voting well by Lynton Crosby and the Tories. IT WILL BE BRUTALLY EFFECTIVE
No doubt someone will update me, but I think I saw a poll on Brexit showing 68% think we should just get on with it now. We have no change in opinion about whether the majority were right or not to choose Brexit, but a massive majority recognising that this was our national choice and now we must deliver it as best we can. That's a kind of coming together I suppose!
I agree with all that. The issue I have personally is that we are not yet facing reality - the quid pro quo for supporting the democratic decision is that we have to limit the damage, and in doing so we will contradict the original justification for the decision. We don't have hard choices any more. We made our choices. We just have hard consequences that we need to deal with.
I note Boris was being quoted on the radio this morning, words I picked up were "Corbyn, terrorism/(t?), sympathiser". The report was about Boris, but noone is voting for Boris in 6 weeks time. People ARE voting for Corbyn (PM/VI r^2 = 0.96 very very very highly correlated). This is the start of the drip drip drip to poison the Labour voting well by Lynton Crosby and the Tories. IT WILL BE BRUTALLY EFFECTIVE
You only have to look at the supplementary question about Corbyn down thread, a surprisingly large number of people know little about him.
The Tories of course won Copeland for the first time in decades in large part because it was a Leave seat and given there are around 400 Leave seats and only 200 Remain seats even if Labour the LDs and SNP gained every Tory Remain seat and won 50 more the Tories would still be ahead because of gains in Labour Leave seats
About 60 seats are in the range 49-51% leave/remain i.e. too close to make any difference at all whether you label them leave or remain.
There are 160 seats that are decisively 60%+ leave and 100 seats that are decisively 60%+ remain. The other 376 seats are in the range 40-60%.
Even gaining all those 60 seats would not produce a Remain majority they have to win 55%+ Leave seats to do that
There is ZERO chance there will be a Remain majority as Tories, UKIP and Labour will all be different shades of Leave in their manifestos. That only leaves LibDem, Green and SNP to form a Remain majority!
What is needed is an effective opposition that promotes the Remain/softest Brexit position in Parliament - and that is where the LibDems, SNP and Greens come in, hopefully with help from some renegade Remain Labour and Tory MPs.
If Labour won I would agree it is more likely to be soft Brexit and remaining in the single market than staying in the EU, only a LD win would stop Brexit altogether
I voted Remain reluctantly last year, I'm not thrilled about Mrs May, and even less so about some of the Leave supporting MPS on the right of the party. In an ideal world Dave and George would still be cruising around Downing Street and IDS, Bone , Fox et al would still be in the corner of the creche for backward politicians muttering inanities to each other.
BUT we are where we are. As a middle of the road voter sadly May is the only game in town,. Corbyn...I think not, I could have been tempted by Clegg but Farron is too left wing and immensely irritating to boot.
Like many, now we are leaving and the government and PM I supported has gone, I just don't like or care enough about the EU and it's goals to go into bat for it again. Doesn't mean we think the Leave campaign, the motivations of its voters or the current govt are laudable. It's not about supporting the winning team. What's the alternative? Corbyn.
A reasoned and thorough reply, and I understand voting May as the least worst option. I will not vote for my Brexiteer Tory MP, but I expect him to win anyway.
The bit I would query is this " I just don't like or care enough about the EU and it's goals to go into bat for it again"
I think there is a difference between the political goals of the EU (which I have no affection for particularly), and the economic benefits of the single market.
I think we have burned our economic future for the chance to wave a flag, and I don't currently foresee a time when I will be happy with that outcome.
And therein lies the tragedy: immediately after the referendum there was probably a majority for an EEA type solution. But the arch Remoaners, thinking they knew best, fought to overturn the referendum result, making Leavers close ranks and the chance is gone for now.
Once we've left, in maybe 5-10 years there may be another.
Don't you find the little footprints particularly amusing? It's almost as if the artist was inviting the viewer to conjure up images of 76 million Muslims marching across English soil.
I think you misunderstand, I'm giggling at you, not a poster.
I realise that you're intensely relaxed about whipping up xenophobia in pursuit of political gain.
I find it disgusting.
Oh well.
Are there any countries you wouldn't enter into political union with?
From that non sequitur I take it that you accept that you are intensely relaxed about whipping up xenophobia in pursuit of political gain. Thanks for confirming.
Well dodged, I'm still curious if there are any countries that you wouldn't enter into political union with.
You're not xenophobic in any way are you?
No, we'll stick with the point at hand. Turkey is not joining the EU. Yet Vote Leave decided that it would campaign on a straightforward lie, conjuring up in the public's minds a wave of hordes of Turkish immigrants. But you are fine with all of that. So you're intensely relaxed to campaign on xenophobic lies.
That's why Brexit is a moral disaster for the nation.
You see this is where we differ, I don't want political union with anybody, you seem to be more selective.
Before the referendum we were told that the UK had about 1/3 strongly anti-EU, about 1/3 quite positive and about a 1/3 essentially Eurosceptic but not strongly so and fearful of disruption. I think Dave coralled the full forces of the state to get nearly half of that wobbly 1/3 to vote Remain. A creditable result actually. Imagine if he'd been pushing in the right direction though - it'd have been over 60% Leave. After this GE the remain block is going to be somewhat disemepowered. There'll simply be less noise in the HoP (both houses). The power of the state will be coralled into getting on with it. The press will have a decisive GE result to deploy. I suspect this chart may move in a Leave direction later this year. It hasn't moved a jot thus far.
It's the 1/3 of hardcore Eurosceptics I'd like to see detailed polling for. How the strand of opinion that expected the EU to crumble and break up responds to the reality that the EU is strong and will be a permanent feature of European politics for the rest of our lives, that we will be more aware of on a day to day basis on the outside than on the inside, will be instructive.
Ask that question again next May after 5* win the Italian elections. Switzerland, Norway and Iceland have also survived for decades outside the EU
Did Le Pen finally get more votes than Macron in the first round ?
She won more departements
That's like saying a losing football club got more corners. It's meaningless.
Not if France had the US system and no runoff it would not have been, Hillary like Macron won the popular vote too of course but Trump more states. The big danger for the EU though is 5* next year
Call me old fashioned but in an election for a single position like President then the person with the most votes should win, I seriously don't know how anyone cn suggest an alternative is more democratic.
The right will always do better in terms of Departments/States etc because rural areas are overrepresented. Look at an electoral map of Britain even when Blair won his landslide the map looks as though he Blues walked it.
Don't you find the little footprints particularly amusing? It's almost as if the artist was inviting the viewer to conjure up images of 76 million Muslims marching across English soil.
I think you misunderstand, I'm giggling at you, not a poster.
I realise that you're intensely relaxed about whipping up xenophobia in pursuit of political gain.
I find it disgusting.
Oh well.
Are there any countries you wouldn't enter into political union with?
From that non sequitur I take it that you accept that you are intensely relaxed about whipping up xenophobia in pursuit of political gain. Thanks for confirming.
Well dodged, I'm still curious if there are any countries that you wouldn't enter into political union with.
You're not xenophobic in any way are you?
No, we'll stick with the point at hand. Turkey is not joining the EU. Yet Vote Leave decided that it would campaign on a straightforward lie, conjuring up in the public's minds a wave of hordes of Turkish immigrants. But you are fine with all of that. So you're intensely relaxed to campaign on xenophobic lies.
That's why Brexit is a moral disaster for the nation.
You see this is where we differ, I don't want political union with anybody, you seem to be more selective.
As I say, I find you amusing.
I have no interest in what you think of me, any more than I imagine you have any interest in what I think of you.
On topic - would Yougov have done this tracker if Remain had won?
Yes. But the question is wrong in my opinion.
The question ought to be re-asked "Would you leave or remain" as it is for Scottish independence. "In hindsight" can induce a regret that simply isn't there before the question is put. It is mildly leading.
The key time to ask whether people find it was a right or wrong decision will be once the final deal is approved - till then people will project their own wish list onto how they expect it to turn out.
I note Boris was being quoted on the radio this morning, words I picked up were "Corbyn, terrorism/(t?), sympathiser". The report was about Boris, but noone is voting for Boris in 6 weeks time. People ARE voting for Corbyn (PM/VI r^2 = 0.96 very very very highly correlated). This is the start of the drip drip drip to poison the Labour voting well by Lynton Crosby and the Tories. IT WILL BE BRUTALLY EFFECTIVE
You only have to look at the supplementary question about Corbyn down thread, a surprisingly large number of people know little about him.
Something I suspect the Tories intend to put right......
Ten months ago today and we were told that economic Armageddon was already happening:
Remainers criticise the £350 million for the NHS figure with some justification, but I can't recall any of them conceding what a load of old bollocks Project Fear has turned out to be. If there was a "big lie" of the referendum campaign it was the wall to wall drivel about the economy from the Remain side, and as you say ten months on we haven't had to resort to cannibalism. Although I dare say some Remainer will now pipe up to say "we haven't left yet".
But we have NOT left yet. It is a simple matter of fact, and the full effects of Brexit are unknowable until we HAVE fully left, something which now looks to be in the 2020s with all the talk of transitional arrangements and such like.
Don't you find the little footprints particularly amusing? It's almost as if the artist was inviting the viewer to conjure up images of 76 million Muslims marching across English soil.
I think you misunderstand, I'm giggling at you, not a poster.
I realise that you're intensely relaxed about whipping up xenophobia in pursuit of political gain.
I find it disgusting.
Oh well.
Are there any countries you wouldn't enter into political union with?
From that non sequitur I take it that you accept that you are intensely relaxed about whipping up xenophobia in pursuit of political gain. Thanks for confirming.
Well dodged, I'm still curious if there are any countries that you wouldn't enter into political union with.
You're not xenophobic in any way are you?
No, we'll stick with the point at hand. Turkey is not joining the EU. Yet Vote Leave decided that it would campaign on a straightforward lie, conjuring up in the public's minds a wave of hordes of Turkish immigrants. But you are fine with all of that. So you're intensely relaxed to campaign on xenophobic lies.
That's why Brexit is a moral disaster for the nation.
You see this is where we differ, I don't want political union with anybody, you seem to be more selective.
the arch Remoaners, thinking they knew best, fought to overturn the referendum result, making Leavers close ranks
Bollocks.
Nobody from the Remain side of the fence forced TMay to make a speech saying we were leaving the customs union. It was the headbangers on her back benches she was frightened of
Actually, it is Merkel that is not seeing clearly. The issue that needs to be discussed is MUTUAL access to each others markets. However, Merkel and the EU seem to think this involves them taking whatever market access they want, and the refusing us the market access that we need to make the deal work. Constantly referring to the 'old EU rules' is irrelevant as we have left the EU and have stated that we don't want to be in the single market. She needs to start looking at this as an FTA negotiation, not re-fighting the outcome of the referendum.
A 'deal' that involves tariff free trade on goods and limited access to services is not in the interests of the UK and should be rejected.
There will be no deal. Hope that May is realising that and after the election she can start having an honest conversation with the public about the costs and benefits (because there will be both) of going it alone.
I note Boris was being quoted on the radio this morning, words I picked up were "Corbyn, terrorism/(t?), sympathiser". The report was about Boris, but noone is voting for Boris in 6 weeks time. People ARE voting for Corbyn (PM/VI r^2 = 0.96 very very very highly correlated). This is the start of the drip drip drip to poison the Labour voting well by Lynton Crosby and the Tories. IT WILL BE BRUTALLY EFFECTIVE
You only have to look at the supplementary question about Corbyn down thread, a surprisingly large number of people know little about him.
Last time round the Conservative attacks on Ed Miliband was that because he stabbed his own brother in the back he'd be prepared to stab the country or some such. A complete nonsense. That he was to some degree painted as a risk to national security was quite staggering I thought - he wasn't. This time round they have proper, real incendiary stuff to go with. Most of the time with normal centre-left party leaders like Ed Miliband, Neil Kinnock, Gordon Brown, Tim Farron, Nick Clegg, Paddy Ashdown, Tony Blair the backstory simply isn't there so something or other has to be concoted. This time with Corbyn & McDonnell it is there, and it is real.
Don't you find the little footprints particularly amusing? It's almost as if the artist was inviting the viewer to conjure up images of 76 million Muslims marching across English soil.
I think you misunderstand, I'm giggling at you, not a poster.
I realise that you're intensely relaxed about whipping up xenophobia in pursuit of political gain.
I find it disgusting.
Oh well.
Are there any countries you wouldn't enter into political union with?
From that non sequitur I take it that you accept that you are intensely relaxed about whipping up xenophobia in pursuit of political gain. Thanks for confirming.
Well dodged, I'm still curious if there are any countries that you wouldn't enter into political union with.
You're not xenophobic in any way are you?
No, we'll stick with the point at hand. Turkey is not joining the EU. Yet Vote Leave decided that it would campaign on a straightforward lie, conjuring up in the public's minds a wave of hordes of Turkish immigrants. But you are fine with all of that. So you're intensely relaxed to campaign on xenophobic lies.
That's why Brexit is a moral disaster for the nation.
You see this is where we differ, I don't want political union with anybody, you seem to be more selective.
As I say, I find you amusing.
You want to dissolve the United Kingdom?
I'm ambivalent, I certainly would encourage Scottish independence and if anybody else wanted to leave I'd be fine.
Don't you find the little footprints particularly amusing? It's almost as if the artist was inviting the viewer to conjure up images of 76 million Muslims marching across English soil.
I think you misunderstand, I'm giggling at you, not a poster.
I realise that you're intensely relaxed about whipping up xenophobia in pursuit of political gain.
I find it disgusting.
Oh well.
Are there any countries you wouldn't enter into political union with?
From that non sequitur I take it that you accept that you are intensely relaxed about whipping up xenophobia in pursuit of political gain. Thanks for confirming.
Well dodged, I'm still curious if there are any countries that you wouldn't enter into political union with.
You're not xenophobic in any way are you?
No, we'll stick with the point at hand. Turkey is not joining the EU. Yet Vote Leave decided that it would campaign on a straightforward lie, conjuring up in the public's minds a wave of hordes of Turkish immigrants. But you are fine with all of that. So you're intensely relaxed to campaign on xenophobic lies.
That's why Brexit is a moral disaster for the nation.
Turkey was joining the EU. It was officially doing so accepted by both the EU, our government and Turkey. Just because accession hasn't been completed yet does not make it a lie. The lie is "yes we have said Turkey would join when it is ready but we didn't really mean it".
Actually, it is Merkel that is not seeing clearly. The issue that needs to be discussed is MUTUAL access to each others markets. However, Merkel and the EU seem to think this involves them taking whatever market access they want, and the refusing us the market access that we need to make the deal work. Constantly referring to the 'old EU rules' is irrelevant as we have left the EU and have stated that we don't want to be in the single market. She needs to start looking at this as an FTA negotiation, not re-fighting the outcome of the referendum.
A 'deal' that involves tariff free trade on goods and limited access to services is not in the interests of the UK and should be rejected.
There will be no deal. Hope that May is realising that and after the election she can start having an honest conversation with the public about the costs and benefits (because there will be both) of going it alone.
Constantly referring to the 'old EU rules' is irrelevant as we have left the EU and have stated that we don't want to be in the single market. She needs to start looking at this as an FTA negotiation, not re-fighting the outcome of the referendum.
Don't you find the little footprints particularly amusing? It's almost as if the artist was inviting the viewer to conjure up images of 76 million Muslims marching across English soil.
I think you misunderstand, I'm giggling at you, not a poster.
I realise that you're intensely relaxed about whipping up xenophobia in pursuit of political gain.
I find it disgusting.
Oh well.
Are there any countries you wouldn't enter into political union with?
From that non sequitur I take it that you accept that you are intensely relaxed about whipping up xenophobia in pursuit of political gain. Thanks for confirming.
Well dodged, I'm still curious if there are any countries that you wouldn't enter into political union with.
You're not xenophobic in any way are you?
No, we'll stick with the point at hand. Turkey is not joining the EU. Yet Vote Leave decided that it would campaign on a straightforward lie, conjuring up in the public's minds a wave of hordes of Turkish immigrants. But you are fine with all of that. So you're intensely relaxed to campaign on xenophobic lies.
That's why Brexit is a moral disaster for the nation.
Turkey was joining the EU. It was officially doing so accepted by both the EU, our government and Turkey. Just because accession hasn't been completed yet does not make it a lie. The lie is "yes we have said Turkey would join when it is ready but we didn't really mean it".
What date - to the nearest decade - do you estimate Turkey is going to join the EU? If you're unsure about which decade, I'm prepared to accept centuries after the 21st.
On topic - would Yougov have done this tracker if Remain had won?
Yes. But the question is wrong in my opinion.
The question ought to be re-asked "Would you leave or remain" as it is for Scottish independence. "In hindsight" can induce a regret that simply isn't there before the question is put. It is mildly leading.
Good point - with their experience as to how questions should be put, one might have hoped that YouGov would have expressed this differently.
That Mr Meeks still thinks "we were lying to the Turks when we said they could join" is a winning argument is incredible. Vote Leave repeated in good faith our own government saying the Turks would join.
I note Boris was being quoted on the radio this morning, words I picked up were "Corbyn, terrorism/(t?), sympathiser". The report was about Boris, but noone is voting for Boris in 6 weeks time. People ARE voting for Corbyn (PM/VI r^2 = 0.96 very very very highly correlated). This is the start of the drip drip drip to poison the Labour voting well by Lynton Crosby and the Tories. IT WILL BE BRUTALLY EFFECTIVE
You only have to look at the supplementary question about Corbyn down thread, a surprisingly large number of people know little about him.
Last time round the Conservative attacks on Ed Miliband was that because he stabbed his own brother in the back he'd be prepared to stab the country or some such. A complete nonsense. That he was to some degree painted as a risk to national security was quite staggering I thought - he wasn't. This time round they have proper, real incendiary stuff to go with. Most of the time with normal centre-left party leaders like Ed Miliband, Neil Kinnock, Gordon Brown, Tim Farron, Nick Clegg, Paddy Ashdown, Tony Blair the backstory simply isn't there so something or other has to be concoted. This time with Corbyn & McDonnell it is there, and it is real.
The Tories could soft pedal it and wait for the right wing press to start the firing gun
And therein lies the tragedy: immediately after the referendum there was probably a majority for an EEA type solution. But the arch Remoaners, thinking they knew best, fought to overturn the referendum result, making Leavers close ranks and the chance is gone for now.
Once we've left, in maybe 5-10 years there may be another.
I have never thought "soft" Brexit was realistic. The EU is doing the rational thing from their point of view and emotionally it doesn't work for them either. They are harmed by Brexit and they don't owe us any favours. Both Leavers and Remainers have resorted to the chimera of soft Brexit to boost their cases. For the first to lower the barriers to a win; for the second to retain some way back.
To me it looks more like a simple statement of fact rather than an insult. Remember that our glorious Press tends to report the lunatic fringe of any story because it makes better headlines so no doubt Frau Merkel sees the pronouncements of Bill Cash and the Mogster and their fellow extreme Brexiteers - our elected representatives (!) - presented as fact.
It also does not help that the govt's Three Brexiteers are prone to making announcements that cause many to go "WTF???"
I am delighted to see that Esther McVey will soon be making a return to parliament, and in a seat for life this time. She will be a vast improvement on her predecessor.
@SandyRentool I'm not sure that's true about a seat for life.
Tatton is due to be abolished under the next boundary review so Mrs McVey will be looking for another seat next time around.
Smithson understands this, but he's so desperate for the Lib Dems to be even slightly relevant that he pretends he doesn't.
It's embarrassing.
Long term it could shift, take a look at opinion on the Iraq War. I don't claim to know which way it will go, though I suspect mid 2020s & against if you were to put a gun to my head.
There is ZERO chance there will be a Remain majority as Tories, UKIP and Labour will all be different shades of Leave in their manifestos.
This is, sadly, another manifestation of cheering for the winning team.
Random Tory MP: "Leaving the EU would be terrible"
You lost
"We will make a huge success of the thing I said would be terrible. Vote for me"
Analogy time. You and your family or peer group debate whether to eat at restaurant A or restaurant B. You favour A, the majority favours B. You go to restaurant B. Do you do your best to ensure that the group has a good time at restaurant B or do you sulk for the rest of the evening, insult the waiters and pocket the tip on the way out?
And therein lies the tragedy: immediately after the referendum there was probably a majority for an EEA type solution. But the arch Remoaners, thinking they knew best, fought to overturn the referendum result, making Leavers close ranks and the chance is gone for now.
Once we've left, in maybe 5-10 years there may be another.
I have never thought "soft" Brexit was realistic. The EU is doing the rational thing from their point of view and emotionally it doesn't work for them either. They are harmed by Brexit and they don't owe us any favours. Both Leavers and Remainers have resorted to the chimera of soft Brexit to boost their cases. For the first to lower the barriers to a win; for the second to retain some way back.
I have to say that I never believed in a "Soft Brexit". To me it was a binary choice - Remain or WTO.
But we have NOT left yet. It is a simple matter of fact, and the full effects of Brexit are unknowable until we HAVE fully left, something which now looks to be in the 2020s with all the talk of transitional arrangements and such like.
Project Fear wasn't "bad things will happen in 2022" it was "bad things will happen immediately". We had endless updates on here by Remainers about the £ (many anticipating cross over with the € or $) and the FTSE 100. In reality after the first week or two the markets have been quite stable and most economic data since the referendum has been positive, with many upward revisions to economic forecasts.
Project Fear seems to have died down for now, but I still haven't heard anyone say "we got it wrong". I wonder how many years it will take for people to concede that they hyped it way too much?
The Telegraph is amusing today, having bounced Nicola Sturgeon into calling for IndiRef2 which has been so disastrous for the SNP, Alex Salmond is now contradicting Sturgeon and claiming IndieRef2 will feature greatly in GE2017.
Salmond hasn’t quite grasped the role of the puppet-master.
That truth doesn't gel with the LibDem's Brexit =Armageddon narrative.
Does it support the 'country coming together' narrative?
No doubt someone will update me, but I think I saw a poll on Brexit showing 68% think we should just get on with it now. We have no change in opinion about whether the majority were right or not to choose Brexit, but a massive majority recognising that this was our national choice and now we must deliver it as best we can. That's a kind of coming together I suppose!
Thinking we should get on with the process is not the same as thinking we should go ahead with Brexit at any cost. 'Now is not the time', to coin a phrase, to revisit the result, but that time *will* come.
Don't you find the little footprints particularly amusing? It's almost as if the artist was inviting the viewer to conjure up images of 76 million Muslims marching across English soil.
I think you misunderstand, I'm giggling at you, not a poster.
I realise that you're intensely relaxed about whipping up xenophobia in pursuit of political gain.
I find it disgusting.
Oh well.
Are there any countries you wouldn't enter into political union with?
From that non sequitur I take it that you accept that you are intensely relaxed about whipping up xenophobia in pursuit of political gain. Thanks for confirming.
Well dodged, I'm still curious if there are any countries that you wouldn't enter into political union with.
You're not xenophobic in any way are you?
No, we'll stick with the point at hand. Turkey is not joining the EU. Yet Vote Leave decided that it would campaign on a straightforward lie, conjuring up in the public's minds a wave of hordes of Turkish immigrants. But you are fine with all of that. So you're intensely relaxed to campaign on xenophobic lies.
That's why Brexit is a moral disaster for the nation.
Turkey was joining the EU. It was officially doing so accepted by both the EU, our government and Turkey. Just because accession hasn't been completed yet does not make it a lie. The lie is "yes we have said Turkey would join when it is ready but we didn't really mean it".
Has it joined yet? "Turkey is about to join the EU" was the message. It's been nearly a year since then. Is it in yet?
No? I suppose it'll be in later this year then? Or will it take the rest of the decade?
I note Boris was being quoted on the radio this morning, words I picked up were "Corbyn, terrorism/(t?), sympathiser". The report was about Boris, but noone is voting for Boris in 6 weeks time. People ARE voting for Corbyn (PM/VI r^2 = 0.96 very very very highly correlated). This is the start of the drip drip drip to poison the Labour voting well by Lynton Crosby and the Tories. IT WILL BE BRUTALLY EFFECTIVE
You only have to look at the supplementary question about Corbyn down thread, a surprisingly large number of people know little about him.
Something I suspect the Tories intend to put right......
For sure, but it does show how little attention most people pay to politics outside of election campaigns. I'm unconvinced that Labour will be helped by greater public attention.
Project Fear wasn't "bad things will happen in 2022" it was "bad things will happen immediately". We had endless updates on here by Remainers about the £ (many anticipating cross over with the € or $) and the FTSE 100. In reality after the first week or two the markets have been quite stable and most economic data since the referendum has been positive, with many upward revisions to economic forecasts.
Sterling dropped precipitously, and has not recovered. The economic effects of that are showing up in other numbers now.
Turkey was joining the EU. It was officially doing so accepted by both the EU, our government and Turkey. Just because accession hasn't been completed yet does not make it a lie. The lie is "yes we have said Turkey would join when it is ready but we didn't really mean it".
What date - to the nearest decade - do you estimate Turkey is going to join the EU? If you're unsure about which decade, I'm prepared to accept centuries after the 21st.
Turkey was never going to join the EU. It cannot meet lots of the accession criteria. By the time negotiations were suspended it had met less than half.
Given the way the middle east tends to treat minorities and women, I cannot see how any country from that region could ever meet the accession criteria.
The Telegraph is amusing today, having bounced Nicola Sturgeon into calling for IndiRef2 which has been so disastrous for the SNP, Alex Salmond is now contradicting Sturgeon and claiming IndieRef2 will feature greatly in GE2017.
Salmond hasn’t quite grasped the role of the puppet-master.
Project Fear wasn't "bad things will happen in 2022" it was "bad things will happen immediately". We had endless updates on here by Remainers about the £ (many anticipating cross over with the € or $) and the FTSE 100. In reality after the first week or two the markets have been quite stable and most economic data since the referendum has been positive, with many upward revisions to economic forecasts.
Sterling dropped precipitously, and has not recovered. The economic effects of that are showing up in other numbers now.
And we still haven't left yet
Real term pay is now flat or dropping too. Of course as the majority demographic for Leave was pensioners, its understandable that they haven't noticed this.
There is ZERO chance there will be a Remain majority as Tories, UKIP and Labour will all be different shades of Leave in their manifestos.
This is, sadly, another manifestation of cheering for the winning team.
Random Tory MP: "Leaving the EU would be terrible"
You lost
"We will make a huge success of the thing I said would be terrible. Vote for me"
Analogy time. You and your family or peer group debate whether to eat at restaurant A or restaurant B. You favour A, the majority favours B. You go to restaurant B. Do you do your best to ensure that the group has a good time at restaurant B or do you sulk for the rest of the evening, insult the waiters and pocket the tip on the way out?
And if restaurant B was serving roast dog or turd burgers ... ? That's the problem with analogies - they tend to illuminate only one's prejudices.
Project Fear wasn't "bad things will happen in 2022" it was "bad things will happen immediately". We had endless updates on here by Remainers about the £ (many anticipating cross over with the € or $) and the FTSE 100. In reality after the first week or two the markets have been quite stable and most economic data since the referendum has been positive, with many upward revisions to economic forecasts.
Sterling dropped precipitously, and has not recovered. The economic effects of that are showing up in other numbers now.
And we still haven't left yet
Real term pay is now flat or dropping too. Of course as the majority demographic for Leave was pensioners, its understandable that they haven't noticed this.
Turkey was joining the EU. It was officially doing so accepted by both the EU, our government and Turkey. Just because accession hasn't been completed yet does not make it a lie. The lie is "yes we have said Turkey would join when it is ready but we didn't really mean it".
What date - to the nearest decade - do you estimate Turkey is going to join the EU? If you're unsure about which decade, I'm prepared to accept centuries after the 21st.
Turkey was never going to join the EU. It cannot meet lots of the accession criteria. By the time negotiations were suspended it had met less than half.
Given the way the middle east tends to treat minorities and women, I cannot see how any country from that region could ever meet the accession criteria.
Getting a middle eastern country such as Turkey into a condition where it treated all its citizens equally and met the EUs human rights requirements and accession criteria would have been a triumph of democracy rather than some sort of existential threat to the UK.
Actually, it is Merkel that is not seeing clearly. The issue that needs to be discussed is MUTUAL access to each others markets. However, Merkel and the EU seem to think this involves them taking whatever market access they want, and the refusing us the market access that we need to make the deal work. Constantly referring to the 'old EU rules' is irrelevant as we have left the EU and have stated that we don't want to be in the single market. She needs to start looking at this as an FTA negotiation, not re-fighting the outcome of the referendum.
A 'deal' that involves tariff free trade on goods and limited access to services is not in the interests of the UK and should be rejected.
There will be no deal. Hope that May is realising that and after the election she can start having an honest conversation with the public about the costs and benefits (because there will be both) of going it alone.
An FTA won't happen for at least ten years IMO and the EU probably won't have any sense of urgency about it. The key question NOW is what will be in place on 29 March 2019. We can call it a transition arrangement, but it won't actually be that because we won't have agreed the destination.
Do you think tariffs on goods and no access to services is more in the UK's interests than tariff free trade on goods and limited access to services?
Project Fear wasn't "bad things will happen in 2022" it was "bad things will happen immediately". We had endless updates on here by Remainers about the £ (many anticipating cross over with the € or $) and the FTSE 100. In reality after the first week or two the markets have been quite stable and most economic data since the referendum has been positive, with many upward revisions to economic forecasts.
Sterling dropped precipitously, and has not recovered. The economic effects of that are showing up in other numbers now.
And we still haven't left yet
Real term pay is now flat or dropping too. Of course as the majority demographic for Leave was pensioners, its understandable that they haven't noticed this.
The very good news for us has been that the economy in our biggest export market seems to be rapidly improving - hence all those auto exports to Europe shielding the industry from the downturn in demand in the UK.
Project Fear wasn't "bad things will happen in 2022" it was "bad things will happen immediately". We had endless updates on here by Remainers about the £ (many anticipating cross over with the € or $) and the FTSE 100. In reality after the first week or two the markets have been quite stable and most economic data since the referendum has been positive, with many upward revisions to economic forecasts.
Sterling dropped precipitously, and has not recovered. The economic effects of that are showing up in other numbers now.
And we still haven't left yet
Sterling is rising well with dollar rate nearly 1.30 today and euro 1.18.
I have an interest as I leave for Canada in 10 days (holiday) and the Canadian dollar has risen from 1.61 to 1.71 in the last few weeks
Our exports are rocketing and the doom and gloom is very overdone
Of course there will be problems but that is not the same as armageddon that some portray on here
But we have NOT left yet. It is a simple matter of fact, and the full effects of Brexit are unknowable until we HAVE fully left, something which now looks to be in the 2020s with all the talk of transitional arrangements and such like.
Project Fear wasn't "bad things will happen in 2022" it was "bad things will happen immediately". We had endless updates on here by Remainers about the £ (many anticipating cross over with the € or $) and the FTSE 100. In reality after the first week or two the markets have been quite stable and most economic data since the referendum has been positive, with many upward revisions to economic forecasts.
Project Fear seems to have died down for now, but I still haven't heard anyone say "we got it wrong". I wonder how many years it will take for people to concede that they hyped it way too much?
Well if it makes you happy I thought Project Fear was hyped way too much and I am "Remoaner". Then again I never believed that by July 2016 we would be sleeping under bridges. I do think that once the trade barriers hit then we will have a recession but we live through those every 8 to 10 years. The question is are we causing a recession we could have avoided?
Also, keep in mind that we do more trade with Belgium than we do with Canada, Australia and New Zealand combined so the Anglosphere and Empire Mk.2 is not likely to make up the trade gap. It is not like Belgium is a major trading partner like Germany or Spain.
But we have NOT left yet. It is a simple matter of fact, and the full effects of Brexit are unknowable until we HAVE fully left, something which now looks to be in the 2020s with all the talk of transitional arrangements and such like.
Project Fear wasn't "bad things will happen in 2022" it was "bad things will happen immediately". We had endless updates on here by Remainers about the £ (many anticipating cross over with the € or $) and the FTSE 100. In reality after the first week or two the markets have been quite stable and most economic data since the referendum has been positive, with many upward revisions to economic forecasts.
Project Fear seems to have died down for now, but I still haven't heard anyone say "we got it wrong". I wonder how many years it will take for people to concede that they hyped it way too much?
The Remain side cannot escape the fact that the extremely wealthy Conservative politicians that led it consistently lied to the public. But then the Leave side also has to accept that the extremely wealthy Conservative politicians who fronted its campaign also consistently told porkers.
Turkey was joining the EU. It was officially doing so accepted by both the EU, our government and Turkey. Just because accession hasn't been completed yet does not make it a lie. The lie is "yes we have said Turkey would join when it is ready but we didn't really mean it".
What date - to the nearest decade - do you estimate Turkey is going to join the EU? If you're unsure about which decade, I'm prepared to accept centuries after the 21st.
Turkey was never going to join the EU. It cannot meet lots of the accession criteria. By the time negotiations were suspended it had met less than half.
Given the way the middle east tends to treat minorities and women, I cannot see how any country from that region could ever meet the accession criteria.
Getting a middle eastern country such as Turkey into a condition where it treated all its citizens equally and met the EUs human rights requirements and accession criteria would have been a triumph of democracy rather than some sort of existential threat to the UK.
Yes indeed, because that is the sort of societal shift that would be required. Turkey at one point was headed to a more secular society but now they seem to be heading to a dictatorship. Whatever they are doing is not helping to meet the accession criteria so no EU membership for Turkey for the forseeable future.
There is ZERO chance there will be a Remain majority as Tories, UKIP and Labour will all be different shades of Leave in their manifestos.
This is, sadly, another manifestation of cheering for the winning team.
Random Tory MP: "Leaving the EU would be terrible"
You lost
"We will make a huge success of the thing I said would be terrible. Vote for me"
Analogy time. You and your family or peer group debate whether to eat at restaurant A or restaurant B. You favour A, the majority favours B. You go to restaurant B. Do you do your best to ensure that the group has a good time at restaurant B or do you sulk for the rest of the evening, insult the waiters and pocket the tip on the way out?
Or go off in a huff and eat somewhere else on your own (maybe the gastronomic equivalent of applying for an Irish passport!)
The Remain side cannot escape the fact that the extremely wealthy Conservative politicians that led it consistently lied to the public. But then the Leave side also has to accept that the extremely wealthy Conservative politicians who fronted its campaign also consistently told porkers.
The Leave side have yet to accept the fact that they won!
They continue to blame those who counselled against it for the result...
The Remain side cannot escape the fact that the extremely wealthy Conservative politicians that led it consistently lied to the public. But then the Leave side also has to accept that the extremely wealthy Conservative politicians who fronted its campaign also consistently told porkers.
I agree with you, I'm not arguing Leave were right, I'm saying there ought to be some balance and Remainers should shoulder some blame for a lot of scare mongering.
@AntonWSJ: Merkel tells Bundestag Britain can’t have same or better rights than EU members; “I have the feeling that some in UK still have illusions…"
Who could she possibly be referring to?
And why would anyone think that was in insult?
Many will - if Theresa May suggested some Germans have illusions it would not be taken well by Germans
Boris Johnson has said far worse things about any number of countries. May made him foreign secretary. Merkel is assuming the UK is not inhabited by snowflakes, but by people who are prepared to hear the truth.
But we have NOT left yet. It is a simple matter of fact, and the full effects of Brexit are unknowable until we HAVE fully left, something which now looks to be in the 2020s with all the talk of transitional arrangements and such like.
Project Fear wasn't "bad things will happen in 2022" it was "bad things will happen immediately". We had endless updates on here by Remainers about the £ (many anticipating cross over with the € or $) and the FTSE 100. In reality after the first week or two the markets have been quite stable and most economic data since the referendum has been positive, with many upward revisions to economic forecasts.
Project Fear seems to have died down for now, but I still haven't heard anyone say "we got it wrong". I wonder how many years it will take for people to concede that they hyped it way too much?
Growth will be down to 0.5 or 0.4 tomorrow and it will all start up again. Its tedious.
Project Fear wasn't "bad things will happen in 2022" it was "bad things will happen immediately". We had endless updates on here by Remainers about the £ (many anticipating cross over with the € or $) and the FTSE 100. In reality after the first week or two the markets have been quite stable and most economic data since the referendum has been positive, with many upward revisions to economic forecasts.
Sterling dropped precipitously, and has not recovered. The economic effects of that are showing up in other numbers now.
And we still haven't left yet
Real term pay is now flat or dropping too. Of course as the majority demographic for Leave was pensioners, its understandable that they haven't noticed this.
Project Fear wasn't "bad things will happen in 2022" it was "bad things will happen immediately". We had endless updates on here by Remainers about the £ (many anticipating cross over with the € or $) and the FTSE 100. In reality after the first week or two the markets have been quite stable and most economic data since the referendum has been positive, with many upward revisions to economic forecasts.
Sterling dropped precipitously, and has not recovered. The economic effects of that are showing up in other numbers now.
And we still haven't left yet
Real term pay is now flat or dropping too. Of course as the majority demographic for Leave was pensioners, its understandable that they haven't noticed this.
Senile old buggers
They do not seem senile to me. Mendacious would be nearer the description I would apply.
Ask Cameron, Blair and Brown. Their governments had all said Turkey should join and accepted Turkey as an OFFICIAL accession state negotiating entry since 2005.
Considering that there were 9 members when we had our 75 referendum and there's now 28 what reason do we have to believe that Blair, Brown and Cameron were all lying to the Turks since 2005? And why should we believe that lie was a lie and put our faith in that?
Analogy time. You and your family or peer group debate whether to eat at restaurant A or restaurant B. You favour A, the majority favours B. You go to restaurant B. Do you do your best to ensure that the group has a good time at restaurant B or do you sulk for the rest of the evening, insult the waiters and pocket the tip on the way out?
You cherish the time you have with your family and ignore the overpriced crap food and service at Restaurant B, because the occasion was never about that. If your family members go on about how much better B was than A, you maintain a diplomatic silence.
There is ZERO chance there will be a Remain majority as Tories, UKIP and Labour will all be different shades of Leave in their manifestos.
This is, sadly, another manifestation of cheering for the winning team.
Random Tory MP: "Leaving the EU would be terrible"
You lost
"We will make a huge success of the thing I said would be terrible. Vote for me"
Analogy time. You and your family or peer group debate whether to eat at restaurant A or restaurant B. You favour A, the majority favours B. You go to restaurant B. Do you do your best to ensure that the group has a good time at restaurant B or do you sulk for the rest of the evening, insult the waiters and pocket the tip on the way out?
And if restaurant B was serving roast dog or turd burgers ... ? That's the problem with analogies - they tend to illuminate only one's prejudices.
No, they are effective in the right hands. Nowhere serves turd burgers, and if they did 48% of a group would not be voting to go to one, so what you think is an analogy turns out not to be one. Disappointing for you.
And ditto to roast dog, subject to Korea caveats I can't be bothered to go into.
Project Fear wasn't "bad things will happen in 2022" it was "bad things will happen immediately". We had endless updates on here by Remainers about the £ (many anticipating cross over with the € or $) and the FTSE 100. In reality after the first week or two the markets have been quite stable and most economic data since the referendum has been positive, with many upward revisions to economic forecasts.
Sterling dropped precipitously, and has not recovered. The economic effects of that are showing up in other numbers now.
And we still haven't left yet
Real term pay is now flat or dropping too. Of course as the majority demographic for Leave was pensioners, its understandable that they haven't noticed this.
Senile old buggers
They do not seem senile to me. Mendacious would be nearer the description I would apply.
But we have NOT left yet. It is a simple matter of fact, and the full effects of Brexit are unknowable until we HAVE fully left, something which now looks to be in the 2020s with all the talk of transitional arrangements and such like.
Project Fear wasn't "bad things will happen in 2022" it was "bad things will happen immediately". We had endless updates on here by Remainers about the £ (many anticipating cross over with the € or $) and the FTSE 100. In reality after the first week or two the markets have been quite stable and most economic data since the referendum has been positive, with many upward revisions to economic forecasts.
Project Fear seems to have died down for now, but I still haven't heard anyone say "we got it wrong". I wonder how many years it will take for people to concede that they hyped it way too much?
The Remain side cannot escape the fact that the extremely wealthy Conservative politicians that led it consistently lied to the public. But then the Leave side also has to accept that the extremely wealthy Conservative politicians who fronted its campaign also consistently told porkers.
I see the Lib Dems are not standing in Brighton Pavilion. I think that is a mistake.
Might help the Tories get over the line there.
Which of the following do you think would make the best Prime Minister?
Lib Dem Theresa May 38 Jeremy Corbyn 15
It's sunk Labour there anyway.
UKIP:
Which of the following do you think would make the best Prime Minister? Theresa May 54 Corbyn 7
Labour had better pray UKIP can run candidates in their leave strongholds.
From where I sit, it looks more like a Lib Dem strategy to keep Caroline Lucas in Whitehall. No doubt the Greens will be reciprocating in kind in other constituencies.
There is ZERO chance there will be a Remain majority as Tories, UKIP and Labour will all be different shades of Leave in their manifestos.
This is, sadly, another manifestation of cheering for the winning team.
Random Tory MP: "Leaving the EU would be terrible"
You lost
"We will make a huge success of the thing I said would be terrible. Vote for me"
Analogy time. You and your family or peer group debate whether to eat at restaurant A or restaurant B. You favour A, the majority favours B. You go to restaurant B. Do you do your best to ensure that the group has a good time at restaurant B or do you sulk for the rest of the evening, insult the waiters and pocket the tip on the way out?
And if restaurant B was serving roast dog or turd burgers ... ? That's the problem with analogies - they tend to illuminate only one's prejudices.
No, they are effective in the right hands. Nowhere serves turd burgers, and if they did 48% of a group would not be voting to go to one, so what you think is an analogy turns out not to be one. Disappointing for you.
And ditto to roast dog, subject to Korea caveats I can't be bothered to go into.
Of course - and a national referendum is the same category of decision as deciding where to eat*, naturally. I was merely combining analogy with reductio ad absurdam - and giving the options of hard and soft Brexit into the bargain. My point stands.
(*of course, if you're SeanT, this may be actually true.)
Growth will be down to 0.5 or 0.4 tomorrow and it will all start up again. Its tedious.
We can't even accurately measure growth to that precision, such figures are frequently revised, and even something like a brief cold snap can knock 0.1% of the economy. But yes it will be back to "Armageddon beckons".
I wish we "worried" even half as much about things that matter more than membership of the EU.
Actually, it is Merkel that is not seeing clearly. The issue that needs to be discussed is MUTUAL access to each others markets. However, Merkel and the EU seem to think this involves them taking whatever market access they want, and the refusing us the market access that we need to make the deal work. Constantly referring to the 'old EU rules' is irrelevant as we have left the EU and have stated that we don't want to be in the single market. She needs to start looking at this as an FTA negotiation, not re-fighting the outcome of the referendum.
A 'deal' that involves tariff free trade on goods and limited access to services is not in the interests of the UK and should be rejected.
There will be no deal. Hope that May is realising that and after the election she can start having an honest conversation with the public about the costs and benefits (because there will be both) of going it alone.
@AntonWSJ: Merkel tells Bundestag Britain can’t have same or better rights than EU members; “I have the feeling that some in UK still have illusions…"
Who could she possibly be referring to?
And why would anyone think that was in insult?
I second that belief that Goods & Services should be tied together and that an agreement should not be made without tying both in. I also believe that key industries should be targeted such as Agriculture that bring pressure on certain countries (one relatively friendly in the form of Ireland, one almost certainly hostile - France).Indeed working in finance for 20 years I know perfectly well the Single Market doesn't work properly in Financial Services (Euro denominated is 16% of total business and can easily continue outside SEPA simply by sticking the Underlying in a Nominee account in the EU whilst trading something like an ADR in London). Indeed regulations like MiFID have actively harmed the liquidity of the UK Equity markets. Although not a major factor the Banker Bonus rules will last 1/2 a Nanosecond after we leave the EU, I expect a similar bonfire of regulation in areas such as disastrous upcoming Payment Services Directive.
However the problem with this argument is that the single market just does not (and has never worked in services). The EU's economy is approximately 70% services but the Single Market only covers 16%. Part of this is obvious - If you are a waiter sneering at their customer in France and deliberately giving them coins over notes (Happened to me 3 months ago in Paris) you cannot be equally patronising in Munich. But the bigger problem is that the Germans & French deliberately sabotaged the Services market agreements at the time because they were worried about the Polish Plumber problem.
Where I am currently sat in Vienna is equally protectionist. Indeed an Irish collegue lives in Vienna but cannot obtain work here because the Austrians will not hire any non Austrian. The Economist has a good summary of why the Single Market in services does not work - see below.
I was watching a good video on Deutsche Welle about German Fisherman being dependent on UK waters. I personally doubt that any compromise will be available on fishing for several obvious reasons - the first being that Theresa May can turn what were previously Red / Flirting with Independence Scots Fishing communities Blue for a generation by telling the EU to take a running jump. Secondly the market for fish is now global. There are species of fish where they are shipped out to China, filleted and shipped back. The Chinese are paranoid about food supply after numerous poisoning scandals, they certainly trust British food supplies so the fish can probably be sold to China. If not they will find ready markets in other parts of the world - just look at the Icelandic Fisheries industry. But the point is that Western European countries are vulnerable in certain key sectors, and whilst Merkel has reigned them in for now it will be a bit different in 2 years when 10% of the Bavarian workforce at BMW is chucked out of the door. The problem lies in the Romania's and Croatia's of this world who don't really deal much with UK Plc. Of course they are incredibly vulnerable in Security but that is a different discussion.
The big Atom Bomb for me is the City. That 74% non SEPA is where European Banks currently on life support get their liquidity. If we took our bat home and started charging them a great deal more calling it "Political Risk" (Just as the Indians and the Chinese did to Russia post OFAC sanctions charging an additional 2%) then we could burn Europe to the ground. I know already that the UK has instructed a very large bank to set up European Subsidiaries because they don't want UK PLC responsible for Eurozone default (Which will no doubt be cited by Remain supporters as evidence of UK weakness when they move some staff to cover this), it is not a long road from there to charging a couple of hundred basis points.
I see the Lib Dems are not standing in Brighton Pavilion. I think that is a mistake.
Might help the Tories get over the line there.
Which of the following do you think would make the best Prime Minister?
Lib Dem Theresa May 38 Jeremy Corbyn 15
It's sunk Labour there anyway.
UKIP:
Which of the following do you think would make the best Prime Minister? Theresa May 54 Corbyn 7
Labour had better pray UKIP can run candidates in their leave strongholds.
I think Lucas should be safe in Brighton, but I agree, what's left of the Lib Dem vote in Brighton Pavilion is perhaps more likely to now vote Tory. Chuck into the mix those looking to switch from Labour, and the absence of a Lib Dem candidate could actually help the Tories rather than hinder them.
I think more widely this could cause more damage to the Lib Dems. Do they really want to be associated with the Greens?
But we have NOT left yet. It is a simple matter of fact, and the full effects of Brexit are unknowable until we HAVE fully left, something which now looks to be in the 2020s with all the talk of transitional arrangements and such like.
Project Fear wasn't "bad things will happen in 2022" it was "bad things will happen immediately". We had endless updates on here by Remainers about the £ (many anticipating cross over with the € or $) and the FTSE 100. In reality after the first week or two the markets have been quite stable and most economic data since the referendum has been positive, with many upward revisions to economic forecasts.
Project Fear seems to have died down for now, but I still haven't heard anyone say "we got it wrong". I wonder how many years it will take for people to concede that they hyped it way too much?
Growth will be down to 0.5 or 0.4 tomorrow and it will all start up again. Its tedious.
True. But on the other hand, Armageddon only arrives overnight in the movies.
Comments
The question ought to be re-asked "Would you leave or remain" as it is for Scottish independence. "In hindsight" can induce a regret that simply isn't there before the question is put. It is mildly leading.
You're not xenophobic in any way are you?
Who could she possibly be referring to?
And why would anyone think that was in insult?
What is needed is an effective opposition that promotes the Remain/softest Brexit position in Parliament - and that is where the LibDems, SNP and Greens come in, hopefully with help from some renegade Remain Labour and Tory MPs.
That's why Brexit is a moral disaster for the nation.
The report was about Boris, but noone is voting for Boris in 6 weeks time. People ARE voting for Corbyn (PM/VI r^2 = 0.96 very very very highly correlated).
This is the start of the drip drip drip to poison the Labour voting well by Lynton Crosby and the Tories. IT WILL BE BRUTALLY EFFECTIVE
Random Tory MP: "Leaving the EU would be terrible"
You lost
"We will make a huge success of the thing I said would be terrible. Vote for me"
Once we've left, in maybe 5-10 years there may be another.
As I say, I find you amusing.
The right will always do better in terms of Departments/States etc because rural areas are overrepresented. Look at an electoral map of Britain even when Blair won his landslide the map looks as though he Blues walked it.
http://commentcentral.co.uk/corbyns-deafening-silence-over-ira-attacks/
The key time to ask whether people find it was a right or wrong decision will be once the final deal is approved - till then people will project their own wish list onto how they expect it to turn out.
Nobody from the Remain side of the fence forced TMay to make a speech saying we were leaving the customs union. It was the headbangers on her back benches she was frightened of
A 'deal' that involves tariff free trade on goods and limited access to services is not in the interests of the UK and should be rejected.
There will be no deal. Hope that May is realising that and after the election she can start having an honest conversation with the public about the costs and benefits (because there will be both) of going it alone.
This time round they have proper, real incendiary stuff to go with. Most of the time with normal centre-left party leaders like Ed Miliband, Neil Kinnock, Gordon Brown, Tim Farron, Nick Clegg, Paddy Ashdown, Tony Blair the backstory simply isn't there so something or other has to be concoted.
This time with Corbyn & McDonnell it is there, and it is real.
It's embarrassing.
It also does not help that the govt's Three Brexiteers are prone to making announcements that cause many to go "WTF???"
Tatton is due to be abolished under the next boundary review so Mrs McVey will be looking for another seat next time around.
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/857373113830473730
Project Fear seems to have died down for now, but I still haven't heard anyone say "we got it wrong". I wonder how many years it will take for people to concede that they hyped it way too much?
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/gi73a1vx9y/TimesResults_170426_VI_Trackers_W.pdf
Salmond hasn’t quite grasped the role of the puppet-master.
"Turkey is about to join the EU" was the message. It's been nearly a year since then. Is it in yet?
No?
I suppose it'll be in later this year then?
Or will it take the rest of the decade?
If not, when?
And we still haven't left yet
Given the way the middle east tends to treat minorities and women, I cannot see how any country from that region could ever meet the accession criteria.
That's the problem with analogies - they tend to illuminate only one's prejudices.
Do you think tariffs on goods and no access to services is more in the UK's interests than tariff free trade on goods and limited access to services?
@CarolineLucas: A welcome move, for which much thanks. Now leaders of Libdems and Labour must sit down with us for talks. twitter.com/bbclaurak/stat…
@wallaceme: "Good morning, and welcome to the inaugural meeting of the Coalition of Chaos Steering Committee." twitter.com/carolinelucas/…
I have an interest as I leave for Canada in 10 days (holiday) and the Canadian dollar has risen from 1.61 to 1.71 in the last few weeks
Our exports are rocketing and the doom and gloom is very overdone
Of course there will be problems but that is not the same as armageddon that some portray on here
Also, keep in mind that we do more trade with Belgium than we do with Canada, Australia and New Zealand combined so the Anglosphere and Empire Mk.2 is not likely to make up the trade gap. It is not like Belgium is a major trading partner like Germany or Spain.
They continue to blame those who counselled against it for the result...
Which of the following do you think would make the best Prime Minister?
Lib Dem
Theresa May 38
Jeremy Corbyn 15
It's sunk Labour there anyway.
UKIP:
Which of the following do you think would make the best Prime Minister?
Theresa May 54
Corbyn 7
Labour had better pray UKIP can run candidates in their leave strongholds.
Ask Cameron, Blair and Brown. Their governments had all said Turkey should join and accepted Turkey as an OFFICIAL accession state negotiating entry since 2005.
Considering that there were 9 members when we had our 75 referendum and there's now 28 what reason do we have to believe that Blair, Brown and Cameron were all lying to the Turks since 2005? And why should we believe that lie was a lie and put our faith in that?
Been there.
And ditto to roast dog, subject to Korea caveats I can't be bothered to go into.
https://twitter.com/graeme_from_IT/status/857354706359914497
No doubt the Greens will be reciprocating in kind in other constituencies.
I was merely combining analogy with reductio ad absurdam - and giving the options of hard and soft Brexit into the bargain. My point stands.
(*of course, if you're SeanT, this may be actually true.)
I wish we "worried" even half as much about things that matter more than membership of the EU.
However the problem with this argument is that the single market just does not (and has never worked in services). The EU's economy is approximately 70% services but the Single Market only covers 16%. Part of this is obvious - If you are a waiter sneering at their customer in France and deliberately giving them coins over notes (Happened to me 3 months ago in Paris) you cannot be equally patronising in Munich. But the bigger problem is that the Germans & French deliberately sabotaged the Services market agreements at the time because they were worried about the Polish Plumber problem.
http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21702233-european-project-britain-helped-build-grinding-halt-single-market-blues
I was watching a good video on Deutsche Welle about German Fisherman being dependent on UK waters. I personally doubt that any compromise will be available on fishing for several obvious reasons - the first being that Theresa May can turn what were previously Red / Flirting with Independence Scots Fishing communities Blue for a generation by telling the EU to take a running jump. Secondly the market for fish is now global. There are species of fish where they are shipped out to China, filleted and shipped back. The Chinese are paranoid about food supply after numerous poisoning scandals, they certainly trust British food supplies so the fish can probably be sold to China. If not they will find ready markets in other parts of the world - just look at the Icelandic Fisheries industry. But the point is that Western European countries are vulnerable in certain key sectors, and whilst Merkel has reigned them in for now it will be a bit different in 2 years when 10% of the Bavarian workforce at BMW is chucked out of the door. The problem lies in the Romania's and Croatia's of this world who don't really deal much with UK Plc. Of course they are incredibly vulnerable in Security but that is a different discussion.
The big Atom Bomb for me is the City. That 74% non SEPA is where European Banks currently on life support get their liquidity. If we took our bat home and started charging them a great deal more calling it "Political Risk" (Just as the Indians and the Chinese did to Russia post OFAC sanctions charging an additional 2%) then we could burn Europe to the ground. I know already that the UK has instructed a very large bank to set up European Subsidiaries because they don't want UK PLC responsible for Eurozone default (Which will no doubt be cited by Remain supporters as evidence of UK weakness when they move some staff to cover this), it is not a long road from there to charging a couple of hundred basis points.
I think more widely this could cause more damage to the Lib Dems. Do they really want to be associated with the Greens?
I would have preferred an EEA solution, but Cameron didn't put it on the ballot paper and the chance for it has now gone, for the time being.