One personal thought - Ynys Mon. I really cannot see the Tories taking it. Yes, yes, we can talk about mathematics and swings but let's also remember it is one of the poorest places in Europe (never mind Britain) and it is very much a Welsh language stronghold. Neither are exactly fertile starting points for the blues.
Particularly in light of this announcement today, I would argue the value is in a Plaid gain:
But it should also be remembered that regardless of national swings, the last sitting MP to be defeated here was Meghan Lloyd George in 1951 (edit - and it was a seat Labour gained at a time when Liberal transfers to the Tories gave them their first overall majority in 16 years).
I got 4/1 for the Tories yesterday. Pretty happy with that now.
I wouldn't be. I don't think I'd take less than 6-1.
But stranger things have happened.
Not confident I'll win the bet, but I'm certainly happy with the implied chance.
Keith Best won the seat for the Tories in 1979 and 83, when it was even more welsh speaking...
This poll is a glimpse of a future which could await Wales. If the Tories do win on theses numbers, the future of our nation is at risk.
No one should forget that Tory ideology is all about privatising and cutting public services. That means longer waiting lists, poorer education and increased child poverty. We know what they are about because we remember the Tories’ record in Wales.
With an increased mandate the Tories will privatise, cut and power-grab from our assembly so that Wales’s ability to defend its own people will be reduced.
@surbiton You don't have to be a Tory to believe that Corbynism needs to die as a force in British politics. Corbyn is essentially the reason as to why this country effectively as no opposition right now.
No. Ed said he would 'freeze' energy prices - meaning in the event of a fall (which duly happened) consumers would be left paying higher prices.
A 'cap' is different.
Need to see details - it may be good politics but iffy policy.
Nope - the 2015 Labour manifesto said this:
"Labour will freeze energy bills until 2017, ensuring that bills can fall but not rise, and we will give the regulator the power to cut bills this winter. During the freeze, we will reform the energy market so that it delivers fairer prices and a better deal for working families."
Nice try SO - but no cigar:
Labour would freeze gas and electricity bills for every home and business in the UK for 20 months if it wins the 2015 election, Ed Miliband has said.
It's in the manifesto. In black and white: ""Labour will freeze energy bills until 2017, ensuring that bills can fall but not rise." It's precisely what May is proposing.
So the Tories improved Miliband's initially poor idea and made it into a better less worse one!
As I wrote the other day:
Miliband proposes freeze = Bad May proposes freeze = good
PB Tories = PB Hypocrites
The problem is not with all the PB Tories it is with certain ones of them who appear to have no minds of their own and slavishly agree with the policy of the day. Carlotta claims to be in her sixties and Oxbridge educated. She should know better!!
The problem is with people who won't engage in argument and simply parrot 'that's the CCHQ line' - I doubt the CCHQ line is to call it 'iffy policy' which I did.......or in Surbiton's case telling outright lies about statements I'd made. But carry on - if you can't attack the ideas, you attack the person. Your flailing is noted and appreciated.
Is Kezia Dugdale worse than Corbyn ? Or, has she been dealt a poor hand ?
That is a very good question.
In fairness, I don't know enough about her to guess an answer.
In further fairness, Corbyn was dealt a pretty poor hand as well, and has played it with skill and sophistication - that is, the skill and sophistication of a drunken village idiot who moonlights as an officer of the Student Loan Company.
I have to agree with other posters, this is tectonic plate shifting moment stuff, there is some major re alignment going on, it is not a Maygasm,yes Corbyn is crap, but the change is much more than that, beginning to think that it is becoming increasingly unpopular to associate yourself with the Labour brand. Start of the Shy Labour vote?
FWIW, from door-knocking so far, trying hard not to have my Optimism Goggles on, the polls seem pretty accurate - we've been focussing just on 2015 Lab voters, and even with them it's been pretty dire. I'd expect the poll results to be borne out in a few weeks, broadly speaking. But I don't get the sense this is a permanent shift - people view May as the right person to lead Britain "into war" with other EU countries, but, a bit surprisingly to me, they don't really seem to be buying this stuff about May wanting "a country that works for everyone". Whenever we say on the doorsteps things like how she doesn't give a damn about public services or ordinary people, people readily agree with us (and a few people yesterday mentioned they didn't believe she'd ever deliver the energy price thing), but they just think stuff like that is small-beer compared to getting a good Brexit deal.
All of that will be small comfort to Labour in the short term, obviously, because unless something dramatic happens, the feeling of "she's the right person to negotiate Brexit" will still be there in a few weeks, but I honestly don't think her appeal (or the Tories' appeal) is going to extend into "peacetime" once Brexit is finally done and dusted.
Yes, the real fight for the opposition parties will be who gets the support when things go bad and people turn against the government in 2018 or 2019. Corbyn may be gone but Labour's strategic problems and internal divisions will still be there.
No. Ed said he would 'freeze' energy prices - meaning in the event of a fall (which duly happened) consumers would be left paying higher prices.
A 'cap' is different.
Need to see details - it may be good politics but iffy policy.
Nope - the 2015 Labour manifesto said this:
"Labour will freeze energy bills until 2017, ensuring that bills can fall but not rise, and we will give the regulator the power to cut bills this winter. During the freeze, we will reform the energy market so that it delivers fairer prices and a better deal for working families."
Nice try SO - but no cigar:
Labour would freeze gas and electricity bills for every home and business in the UK for 20 months if it wins the 2015 election, Ed Miliband has said.
It's in the manifesto. In black and white: ""Labour will freeze energy bills until 2017, ensuring that bills can fall but not rise." It's precisely what May is proposing.
So the Tories improved Miliband's initially poor idea and made it into a better less worse one!
As I wrote the other day:
Miliband proposes freeze = Bad May proposes freeze = good
PB Tories = PB Hypocrites
Several PB Tories have acted with hostility to the proposal.
Not Carlotta and Fitalass. But then again, CCHQ dictates...........
Has Fitalass even been on? ...
You clearly miss the night shift. They have different time slots.
This poll is a glimpse of a future which could await Wales. If the Tories do win on theses numbers, the future of our nation is at risk.
No one should forget that Tory ideology is all about privatising and cutting public services. That means longer waiting lists, poorer education and increased child poverty. We know what they are about because we remember the Tories’ record in Wales.
With an increased mandate the Tories will privatise, cut and power-grab from our assembly so that Wales’s ability to defend its own people will be reduced.
Isn't health n education devolved?
you know that and I know that perhaps Plaid need reminding
I seem to remember somebody introduced a former Labour leader like that.
The place was Sheffield.
The date was (appropriately) April 1st 1992.
The Labour leader was a bloke called Neil Kinnock, who won the election and went on to be a great Prime Mini...ahhh.
Hubris among the Tories looks bad. Hubris for Labour makes me wonder whether my earlier sarcastic comment on hallucinogenic substances was actually correct.
Kinnock's behaviour was probably responsible for Majot getting an overall majority in 1992. His popstar rant surely added 1% to the Tory lead and gave them ten seats which otherwise would have gone Labour.
That accounts for a lot, but is also very depressing. The young of Wales must be leaving in droves.
Wouldn't you?
Its universities have been trashed.
Its economy is weak and erratic, heavily reliant on a government that is notoriously weak and corrupt. In any case, no public sector jobs are open to non-Welsh speakers who are in fact the majority of the population.
It is remote and outside Cardiff a cultural wilderness. Transport links are atrocious and the roads are very dangerous.
It is not cheap to live in. Good houses are snapped up as second homes and bad ones are - well, bad.
Why do you think I live in Cannock?
Do Plaid stand a chance in Llanelli? Nia Griffith wasn't very impressive on DP today (partly because she is in an impossible position tbf) and I see Plaid consistently run her second in the seat. Scope for anti-Labour tactical voting?
It doesn't seem like it on the face of it, but maybe someone with local knowledge could say more (my husband has some local knowledge, but isn't home at the mo.)
Nearly all the votes in Llanelli that didn't go to Plaid or Labour went Tory or Ukip, and Plaid do nothing to disguise their contempt of the Conservatives. If it were a Lib Dem vs Labour contest you could conceive of Tory voters lending their help to the Yellows, but I don't see why they should abandon their own team just to exchange one flavour of leftist for another.
NB Tory + Ukip = greater than Plaid. Perhaps if Ukip goes completely down the toilet then the Tories might fancy having a crack at Griffith themselves? A bit of bleed from Labour to Plaid could be enough to turn Llanelli into a three-way marginal, perhaps?
And the very fact that one can plausible argue for the concept of Llanelli as a three-way marginal tells you just what an advanced state of decay Labour is in. Not that anyone didn't already know that.
Always found that sort of line very strange. When the people back the establishment (which still includes Labour, Jeremy, but let's pretend it doesn't), the line that the people are against the establishment continues.
A Russian friend in Geneva who's often in Paris tells me that Russian reporters in France who aren't "embedded" have been advised to stay away from the Muslim-majority Paris banlieues from this Saturday (29 Apr) until further notice, and also from the FN's Joan of Arc march next Monday (1 May).
I asked him what he thought might happen. All I could entice out of him when I mentioned May 1968 (the one-million strong right-wing march against the students and the general strike) was that 1968 would be peanuts in comparison unless we were talking about Prague or Mexico.
The National Union of Students (NUS) is embroiled in a fresh anti-Semitism row after three candidates holding or running for positions on its executive committee were revealed to have made offensive comments.
In online posts seen by The Independent, one current member of the union’s National Executive Council shared a video mocking Jews as having big noses and being tight with money, while another publicly suggested Jewish people are tight-fisted and said he wanted to destroy Israel.
This poll is a glimpse of a future which could await Wales. If the Tories do win on theses numbers, the future of our nation is at risk.
No one should forget that Tory ideology is all about privatising and cutting public services. That means longer waiting lists, poorer education and increased child poverty. We know what they are about because we remember the Tories’ record in Wales.
With an increased mandate the Tories will privatise, cut and power-grab from our assembly so that Wales’s ability to defend its own people will be reduced.
Isn't health n education devolved?
I think they are fearful that if the Tories take 53% of seats at Westminster, largest party in the Sennedd will be close behind.
I think they are also right about this.
I am however frankly unsure how much worse things could be (in case somebody hadn't guessed).
I might have to go and have a lie down, as I agree with Nick....Lab vote seems to be stuck at 25%. Looks like that might be the bedrock for Labour support, still impressive as we always used to talk about Labour and Tory having a firewall of 30%.
Labour's firewall could not be 30%. In 2010, it got 29+% and in 1983, it received 28+ %. In both cases, Scotland was big with Labour.
So the equivalent figure would be about 26%.
There is no firewall (rock bottom) percentage. SLAB have proven that, why should England or Wales be different?
True. Tectonic plates are moving.
Labour represented the "working class". Their numbers have fallen dramatically and some do not even want to described as such. That is fair enough.
However, in that coalition, there was a large scale opinion which did not go well with Labour's professed values regarding internationalism, anti-racism etc. These two strands co-existed for many years because many at the bottom of the income scale needed Labour even though they did not agree with Labour's intellectual viewpoint. Many , of course, will stay with Labour but many have gone.
We must not forget, Labour also gained many [ though not as many ] progressive voters.
The shift from Labour to UKIP but not back to Labour is part of this tectonic movement. In the next few years another development will occur. Many "wet" Tories [ Remainers ? ] will move over to the Lib Dems and many left minded Liberal Democrats will move to a more modern Labour Party without its historical baggage, the kind of slogans Corbynistas spout out.
The question is: Is there room for two/ three parties [ Labour mark II, Lid Dems, Green ] ? Because we do not have proportional representation, we could end up like the Americans in having just two parties. Even the WWC defection to Trump could be permanent. There, the democratic coalition is still the majority as Hillary's 3m extra votes testify.
Interesting times ahead.
There's no rule that any given number of parties can thrive under FPTnP. But only parties that have a geographically concentrated support base can do so. Labour's concentration in the mining and industrial heartlands made its replacing the Liberals so much easier. Any party with an even (-ish) spread of support cannot flourish until they get well into the 40%s share of the vote.
So in your scenario it would require a massive shift in London's voting habits such that the three parties appealed, respectively, to the Home Counties/Shires, London and the universities, and the poorer urban North. Or something similar.
Labour has reasonable concentration in urban areas. Policies can gradually evolve which will appeal to suburbia as well.
No. Ed said he would 'freeze' energy prices - meaning in the event of a fall (which duly happened) consumers would be left paying higher prices.
A 'cap' is different.
Need to see details - it may be good politics but iffy policy.
Nope - the 2015 Labour manifesto said this:
"Labour will freeze energy bills until 2017, ensuring that bills can fall but not rise, and we will give the regulator the power to cut bills this winter. During the freeze, we will reform the energy market so that it delivers fairer prices and a better deal for working families."
Nice try SO - but no cigar:
Labour would freeze gas and electricity bills for every home and business in the UK for 20 months if it wins the 2015 election, Ed Miliband has said.
It's in the manifesto. In black and white: ""Labour will freeze energy bills until 2017, ensuring that bills can fall but not rise." It's precisely what May is proposing.
So the Tories improved Miliband's initially poor idea and made it into a better less worse one!
As I wrote the other day:
Miliband proposes freeze = Bad May proposes freeze = good
PB Tories = PB Hypocrites
+1
That is old news though!
Cap, not freeze.
Which of the following utilities do you think are not already subject to statutory caps at either wholesale or retail level? Gas, electricity, telecoms, mail, water and sewerage?
Your point about Miliband is not wholly wrong - his policy wasn't a particularly awful one (except for the dimness of not initially taking into account the possibility prices might fall) but it was fun pretending it was, and the test of a politician in an adversarial system is not just are his policies good, but is he good at defending them against claims that they are bad? Answer = no for Miliband and, I am afraid to say, for many non-tory pbers.
"In any case, no public sector jobs are open to non-Welsh speakers who are in fact the majority of the population."
That is just utter claptrap! I have family in Wales who speak no Welsh and yet work in the public sector!
Delighted to hear it BUT:
1) how long for?
2) as what?
I don't need to add any information to rebut your claim, as you stated that "NO public sector jobs are open to non-Welsh speakers" - no qualifications, no caveats, just a blanket statement which is simply untrue.
For referemce the SNP council leaflet mentioned independence and referendum zero times but it is apparently the SNP who are obsessed.
You must think Scottish voters are stupid trying to spin a line like that - Sturgeon and the SNP were talking of nothing else right up until the GE was called. Two days debate at Holyrood shows they're obsessed by it.
On topic, Labour is in danger of entering a vicious cycle.
The greatest risk identified in the header is not the catastrophic poll in Wales but Mike's final comment about a different leader.
Be clear - there is absolutely no way Labour could change leader now and if a serious attempt was made then unlike the original failed coup last year, this one would be extremely damaging as red-on-red attacks split the party from top to bottom during a general election campaign, making any attempt at a coherent message impossible.
However, while polling remains as dire as it is, and while the prime cause is as obvious as it is, then the more that candidates will do what they can to escape the carnage. That will inevitably include criticism of the leadership (which may well be compounded by other errors from Corbyn, under the spotlight like never before), leading to further falls in the polls / increases in the Con lead, leading to still greater panic within Labour.
It's not guaranteed. The media may well bore of the Labour problems and turn their attention to Tory problems at some point - and in an election, particularly one called unexpectedly, something will go wrong somewhere. But there is a real risk of things spiralling out of control until a new leader can be elected after June 8.
"In any case, no public sector jobs are open to non-Welsh speakers who are in fact the majority of the population."
That is just utter claptrap! I have family in Wales who speak no Welsh and yet work in the public sector!
Delighted to hear it BUT:
1) how long for?
2) as what?
most are expected to learn the language
Which was my point. It became a major issue with Plaid in government a few years back, as a bone Labour could throw to them. Anyone hired before that was OK. And of course there are so few doctors etc that only an utter fool would insist they speak Welsh (Andrews probably considered it).
So even a mediocrity who speaks Welsh has an advantage over a superstar who speaks English. That's wrong, and I speak as a Welsh speaker (albeit an increasingly rusty one). We cannot say the majority are frozen out of secure well-paying jobs because they do not speak what is even in Wales a minority language (I vividly remember my old History teacher, a good Corbynista and a great friend of mine, commenting drily that she heard more Polish in Gloucestershire than Welsh in Brecon). Is it any wonder they see England as a land with more opportunity?
"In any case, no public sector jobs are open to non-Welsh speakers who are in fact the majority of the population."
That is just utter claptrap! I have family in Wales who speak no Welsh and yet work in the public sector!
Delighted to hear it BUT:
1) how long for?
2) as what?
I don't need to add any information to rebut your claim, as you stated that "NO public sector jobs are open to non-Welsh speakers" - no qualifications, no caveats, just a blanket statement which is simply untrue.
Well - you seem to have misunderstood slightly. But I accept I should have qualified it. As I now have.
I believe that Devolution in Wales has come back to bite Labour. I always strongly opposed it and would still like the Welsh Assembly disappear. So many years in control at Cardiff have built up grievances over the years which make it much more difficult to blame a Tory Government at Westminster for problems linked to core issues such as Health & Education.This cannot be pinned on Corbyn , but it is very much a self inflicted wound.
No. Ed said he would 'freeze' energy prices - meaning in the event of a fall (which duly happened) consumers would be left paying higher prices.
A 'cap' is different.
Need to see details - it may be good politics but iffy policy.
Nope - the 2015 Labour manifesto said this:
"Labour will freeze energy bills until 2017, ensuring that bills can fall but not rise, and we will give the regulator the power to cut bills this winter. During the freeze, we will reform the energy market so that it delivers fairer prices and a better deal for working families."
Nice try SO - but no cigar:
Labour would freeze gas and electricity bills for every home and business in the UK for 20 months if it wins the 2015 election, Ed Miliband has said.
It's in the manifesto. In black and white: ""Labour will freeze energy bills until 2017, ensuring that bills can fall but not rise." It's precisely what May is proposing.
So the Tories improved Miliband's initially poor idea and made it into a better less worse one!
As I wrote the other day:
Miliband proposes freeze = Bad May proposes freeze = good
PB Tories = PB Hypocrites
Several PB Tories have acted with hostility to the proposal.
Not Carlotta and Fitalass. But then again, CCHQ dictates...........
Has Fitalass even been on? ...
You clearly miss the night shift. They have different time slots.
My point is she hasn't been, so I am not sure how you can know what she thinks about the proposal.
A Russian friend in Geneva who's often in Paris tells me that Russian reporters in France who aren't "embedded" have been advised to stay away from the Muslim-majority Paris banlieues from this Saturday (29 Apr) until further notice, and also from the FN's Joan of Arc march next Monday (1 May).
I asked him what he thought might happen. All I could entice out of him when I mentioned May 1968 (the one-million strong right-wing march against the students and the general strike) was that 1968 would be peanuts in comparison unless we were talking about Prague or Mexico.
FFS!
Sounds like a variation on a theme that used to do the rounds in UK re upcoming terrorist attacks
A centre-left house journal ponders the removal of the Leader of the Labour Party openly, six weeks before a General Election.
They are getting really, really desperate now.
Because of course the Tory party had awesomely convincing and broadly respected leaders during their own period in opposition, right? And indeed when in government too.
A centre-left house journal ponders the removal of the Leader of the Labour Party openly, six weeks before a General Election.
They are getting really, really desperate now.
Because of course the Tory party had awesomely convincing and broadly respected leaders during their own period in opposition, right? And indeed when in government too.
That's not really the point though, is it?
Not least because the Tories can get rid of leaders that their MPs disapprove of.
That accounts for a lot, but is also very depressing. The young of Wales must be leaving in droves.
Or the old are moving to Wales in droves, and being old they don't produce any new kids of their own?
Forty-odd years ago I travelled a lot on the line between London & Bristol. I came to recognise that all the trains heading out of Wales were always packed, but the ones going into Wales half empty.
News from France: Marine Le Pen is temporarily stepping down as FN leader. Unclear if she is also standing down as candidate for president. Unclear what happens if she does.
EDIT: It appears she's standing down as FN leader only. Still unclear why.
A centre-left house journal ponders the removal of the Leader of the Labour Party openly, six weeks before a General Election.
They are getting really, really desperate now.
Because of course the Tory party had awesomely convincing and broadly respected leaders during their own period in opposition, right? And indeed when in government too.
Say what you like about the variable quality of the Conservatives' leadership: the party never contemplated knifing one of its own leaders in the middle of a General Election campaign (and no Tory leader has ever taken less than 30% of the popular vote, either.)
That accounts for a lot, but is also very depressing. The young of Wales must be leaving in droves.
Or the old are moving to Wales in droves, and being old they don't produce any new kids of their own?
Forty-odd years ago I travelled a lot on the line between London & Bristol. I came to recognise that all the trains heading out of Wales were always packed, but the ones going into Wales half empty.
Do you think the train-travelling Taffs worked a shorter day than you a longer one?
I believe that Devolution in Wales has come back to bite Labour. I always strongly opposed it and would still like the Welsh Assembly disappear. So many years in control at Cardiff have built up grievances over the years which make it much more difficult to blame a Tory Government at Westminster for problems linked to core issues such as Health & Education.This cannot be pinned on Corbyn , but it is very much a self inflicted wound.
So your problem is that the shower of shite that is a labour controlled assembly can't hide behind a tory government?
"In any case, no public sector jobs are open to non-Welsh speakers who are in fact the majority of the population."
That is just utter claptrap! I have family in Wales who speak no Welsh and yet work in the public sector!
Delighted to hear it BUT:
1) how long for?
2) as what?
I don't need to add any information to rebut your claim, as you stated that "NO public sector jobs are open to non-Welsh speakers" - no qualifications, no caveats, just a blanket statement which is simply untrue.
Well - you seem to have misunderstood slightly. But I accept I should have qualified it. As I now have.
the new vice-chancellor of Aberystwyth university appointed this year does not speak welsh...
I have to agree with other posters, this is tectonic plate shifting moment stuff, there is some major re alignment going on, it is not a Maygasm,yes Corbyn is crap, but the change is much more than that, beginning to think that it is becoming increasingly unpopular to associate yourself with the Labour brand. Start of the Shy Labour vote?
FWIW, from door-knocking so far, trying hard not to have my Optimism Goggles on, the polls seem pretty accurate - we've been focussing just on 2015 Lab voters, and even with them it's been pretty dire. I'd expect the poll results to be borne out in a few weeks, broadly speaking. But I don't get the sense this is a permanent shift - people view May as the right person to lead Britain "into war" with other EU countries, but, a bit surprisingly to me, they don't really seem to be buying this stuff about May wanting "a country that works for everyone". Whenever we say on the doorsteps things like how she doesn't give a damn about public services or ordinary people, people readily agree with us (and a few people yesterday mentioned they didn't believe she'd ever deliver the energy price thing), but they just think stuff like that is small-beer compared to getting a good Brexit deal.
All of that will be small comfort to Labour in the short term, obviously, because unless something dramatic happens, the feeling of "she's the right person to negotiate Brexit" will still be there in a few weeks, but I honestly don't think her appeal (or the Tories' appeal) is going to extend into "peacetime" once Brexit is finally done and dusted.
Yes a thoughtful comment, I was a Remainer, but now accept we are stuck with leave, and have to make the best of it, and May is our best hope. Re NHS and education, I can only comment on personal experience, unfortunately I have had some health problems recently, and the NHS has been excellent, I am fixed and back to normal life. On education, I have 3 Grandchildren, and I observe they are receiving an excellent education,(Warrington, and Sheffield). I wonder just how many people are having a negative experience with the NHS and Education, and maybe this is not a doorstep issue.
News from France: Marine Le Pen is temporarily stepping down as FN leader. Unclear if she is also standing down as candidate for president. Unclear what happens if she does.
EDIT: It appears she's standing down as FN leader only. Still unclear why.
This is about the Zionist lobby fighting the movement to "boycott, divest and sanction" (BDS) with any means necessary.
So, its the fault of the zionists???.......
Yes, the undermining of the opposition in the NUS and elsewhere in British academia to Zionism, including the undermining of the justified call for an academic boycott of that regime, and of BDS more generally, is indeed the fault of the Zionists and their supporters. Their anti-BDS campaign is far stronger than any counter-campaign the white-supremacist South African regime (which didn't use its airforce and tanks against its bantustans) ever came up with.
Former board members of the collapsed charity Kids Company – including its founder, Camila Batmanghelidjh, and the former BBC chief Alan Yentob – face being banned from serving as company directors, according to reports.
Former board members of the collapsed charity Kids Company – including its founder, Camila Batmanghelidjh, and the former BBC chief Alan Yentob – face being banned from serving as company directors, according to reports.
I believe that Devolution in Wales has come back to bite Labour. I always strongly opposed it and would still like the Welsh Assembly disappear. So many years in control at Cardiff have built up grievances over the years which make it much more difficult to blame a Tory Government at Westminster for problems linked to core issues such as Health & Education.This cannot be pinned on Corbyn , but it is very much a self inflicted wound.
And all the more richly deserved for the fact that Labour only ever set up Welsh devolution in the first place because they thought that they could run Wales as a private concern forever.
It's not like there was even overwhelming demand for an Assembly. It passed the initial referendum by a margin of less than 7,000 votes.
It was just like Prescott's plan for a North East Assembly. Set up a body we can control forever, create dozens of well-paid sinecure posts for ex-county councillors, and use it as a base from which to harass the Government the next time we're out of office.
Only the cunning plan seems rather to have gone awry now. Good.
This is about the Zionist lobby fighting the movement to "boycott, divest and sanction" (BDS) with any means necessary.
No. It's about racism.
If someone says something that you perceive as racist then it is racist: this is the definition of racism used in this country.
I'm not quite clear whether you support that ridiculous definition, Fysics_Teacher, or whether you are mocking it. That's not the definition of racism used by any sensible person.
This is about the Zionist lobby fighting the movement to "boycott, divest and sanction" (BDS) with any means necessary.
So, its the fault of the zionists???.......
Yes, the undermining of the opposition in the NUS and elsewhere in British academia to Zionism, including the undermining of the justified call for an academic boycott of that regime, and of BDS more generally, is indeed the fault of the Zionists and their supporters. Their anti-BDS campaign is far stronger than any counter-campaign the white-supremacist South African regime (which didn't use its airforce and tanks against its bantustans) ever came up with.
This is about the Zionist lobby fighting the movement to "boycott, divest and sanction" (BDS) with any means necessary.
So, its the fault of the zionists???.......
Yes, the undermining of the opposition in the NUS and elsewhere in British academia to Zionism, including the undermining of the justified call for an academic boycott of that regime, and of BDS more generally, is indeed the fault of the Zionists and their supporters. Their anti-BDS campaign is far stronger than any counter-campaign the white-supremacist South African regime (which didn't use its airforce and tanks against its bantustans) ever came up with.
This is about the Zionist lobby fighting the movement to "boycott, divest and sanction" (BDS) with any means necessary.
So, its the fault of the zionists???.......
Yes, the undermining of the opposition in the NUS and elsewhere in British academia to Zionism, including the undermining of the justified call for an academic boycott of that regime, and of BDS more generally, is indeed the fault of the Zionists and their supporters. Their anti-BDS campaign is far stronger than any counter-campaign the white-supremacist South African regime (which didn't use its airforce and tanks against its bantustans) ever came up with.
Wait - do they have to a) land on the surface, b) return?
Not possible in 4 years.
Nope. They don't have a suitable rocket, capsule or tested landing mechanism, yet alone a way to return.
Aside from that (oh, and a budget) - it's a goer.
SpaceX might be able to launch a Dragon 2 capsule (Red Dragon) on Mars in 2020, but that's nohere near big enough to be manned or useful for a manned flight.
I think the next synods are July 2018 and ?October? 2020.
I believe that Devolution in Wales has come back to bite Labour. I always strongly opposed it and would still like the Welsh Assembly disappear. So many years in control at Cardiff have built up grievances over the years which make it much more difficult to blame a Tory Government at Westminster for problems linked to core issues such as Health & Education.This cannot be pinned on Corbyn , but it is very much a self inflicted wound.
So your problem is that the shower of shite that is a labour controlled assembly can't hide behind a tory government?
They've been treading water for years, at first it was not to offend London Labour and then it was just to gainsay the Tories. At some point people were going to ask questions about what the fuck they actually did all day to try and improve the situation. The Tories are ruthless, and not a little heartless, but at least they fucking do something.
This is about the Zionist lobby fighting the movement to "boycott, divest and sanction" (BDS) with any means necessary.
So, its the fault of the zionists???.......
Yes, the undermining of the opposition in the NUS and elsewhere in British academia to Zionism, including the undermining of the justified call for an academic boycott of that regime, and of BDS more generally, is indeed the fault of the Zionists and their supporters. Their anti-BDS campaign is far stronger than any counter-campaign the white-supremacist South African regime (which didn't use its airforce and tanks against its bantustans) ever came up with.
Very interesting, especially the following findings:
1. Not much evidence in this particular poll of large scale movement to and from the SNP. Suggests Tories aren't picking up Nat Leavers, but Nats aren't picking up very many Unionist Remainers, either (there's a bit of bleed from the Lib Dems, but they're tiny in Scotland anyway.) 2. Therefore, the primary driver of the Tory resurgence is suggested to be mass defections from Labour and the Liberal Democrats, i.e. Scottish politics seems to be gradually realigning on Unionist/Nationalist lines. 3. The country remains totally split on another referendum. 52% say no (at least not for many years,) 48% say either soon, or after the Brexit talks are finished.
Would be interesting to observe whether a similar trend appears in future Scottish polls? Hopefully now that the election is on, we shall see a number of surveys from different providers.
That accounts for a lot, but is also very depressing. The young of Wales must be leaving in droves.
Or the old are moving to Wales in droves, and being old they don't produce any new kids of their own?
Forty-odd years ago I travelled a lot on the line between London & Bristol. I came to recognise that all the trains heading out of Wales were always packed, but the ones going into Wales half empty.
Do you think the train-travelling Taffs worked a shorter day than you a longer one?
I think the more rural parts of Wales in the north and west ARE seeing an influx of English retirees. For example, there are areas in Ceredigion where about 50% of the population were born in England - and they have not moved there for the jobs! This explains (to me) why Plaid are doomed never to win Ceredigion again. Whereas parts of the Valleys are almost exclusively Welsh born
Former board members of the collapsed charity Kids Company – including its founder, Camila Batmanghelidjh, and the former BBC chief Alan Yentob – face being banned from serving as company directors, according to reports.
Wait - do they have to a) land on the surface, b) return?
Not possible in 4 years.
Nope. They don't have a suitable rocket, capsule or tested landing mechanism, yet alone a way to return.
Aside from that (oh, and a budget) - it's a goer.
SpaceX might be able to launch a Dragon 2 capsule (Red Dragon) on Mars in 2020, but that's nohere near big enough to be manned or useful for a manned flight.
I think the next synods are July 2018 and ?October? 2020.
Well, hang on, Nasa are sending off another Mars rover, launch date mid 2020. https://mars.jpl.nasa.gov/mars2020/mission/overview/ Not sure how big the max payload is for an Atlas V rocket but there's time and to spare to beef it up. So a landing in Trump's first time would be at the far right of the sanity bell curve, but not strictly speaking impossible. "Return them in safety" raises some issues though.
My guess is Donald would be taken aback if shown a to-scale diagram of the earth, the ISS in low earth orbit, the moon, and Mars.
Comments
63! Bloody hell. She looks younger than I do, and I'm the same age as Macron.
1) how long for?
2) as what?
Will she remain as the presidential candidate?
by politics.
Nearly all the votes in Llanelli that didn't go to Plaid or Labour went Tory or Ukip, and Plaid do nothing to disguise their contempt of the Conservatives. If it were a Lib Dem vs Labour contest you could conceive of Tory voters lending their help to the Yellows, but I don't see why they should abandon their own team just to exchange one flavour of leftist for another.
NB Tory + Ukip = greater than Plaid. Perhaps if Ukip goes completely down the toilet then the Tories might fancy having a crack at Griffith themselves? A bit of bleed from Labour to Plaid could be enough to turn Llanelli into a three-way marginal, perhaps?
And the very fact that one can plausible argue for the concept of Llanelli as a three-way marginal tells you just what an advanced state of decay Labour is in. Not that anyone didn't already know that.
https://www.redbubble.com/people/prayforpatrick/works/22487317-jezza
I asked him what he thought might happen. All I could entice out of him when I mentioned May 1968 (the one-million strong right-wing march against the students and the general strike) was that 1968 would be peanuts in comparison unless we were talking about Prague or Mexico.
FFS!
This is one reason Labour need a right royal rogering.
I think they are also right about this.
I am however frankly unsure how much worse things could be (in case somebody hadn't guessed).
The Le Pen name is as synonymous with fascism as any other current political name.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/12/12/young-prezza-to-save-old-jezza-the-task-facing-corbyns-new-speechwriter/
Whats changed? :-)
Which of the following utilities do you think are not already subject to statutory caps at either wholesale or retail level? Gas, electricity, telecoms, mail, water and sewerage?
Your point about Miliband is not wholly wrong - his policy wasn't a particularly awful one (except for the dimness of not initially taking into account the possibility prices might fall) but it was fun pretending it was, and the test of a politician in an adversarial system is not just are his policies good, but is he good at defending them against claims that they are bad? Answer = no for Miliband and, I am afraid to say, for many non-tory pbers.
There is no obvious enthusiasm for Macron among the French working class/working age vote.
https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/856579753716862976
Wait - do they have to a) land on the surface, b) return?
The greatest risk identified in the header is not the catastrophic poll in Wales but Mike's final comment about a different leader.
Be clear - there is absolutely no way Labour could change leader now and if a serious attempt was made then unlike the original failed coup last year, this one would be extremely damaging as red-on-red attacks split the party from top to bottom during a general election campaign, making any attempt at a coherent message impossible.
However, while polling remains as dire as it is, and while the prime cause is as obvious as it is, then the more that candidates will do what they can to escape the carnage. That will inevitably include criticism of the leadership (which may well be compounded by other errors from Corbyn, under the spotlight like never before), leading to further falls in the polls / increases in the Con lead, leading to still greater panic within Labour.
It's not guaranteed. The media may well bore of the Labour problems and turn their attention to Tory problems at some point - and in an election, particularly one called unexpectedly, something will go wrong somewhere. But there is a real risk of things spiralling out of control until a new leader can be elected after June 8.
So even a mediocrity who speaks Welsh has an advantage over a superstar who speaks English. That's wrong, and I speak as a Welsh speaker (albeit an increasingly rusty one). We cannot say the majority are frozen out of secure well-paying jobs because they do not speak what is even in Wales a minority language (I vividly remember my old History teacher, a good Corbynista and a great friend of mine, commenting drily that she heard more Polish in Gloucestershire than Welsh in Brecon). Is it any wonder they see England as a land with more opportunity?
A centre-left house journal ponders the removal of the Leader of the Labour Party openly, six weeks before a General Election.
They are getting really, really desperate now.
http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls/W7181w11tablesforpublication210417.pdf
Apiarists not exactly swarming to UKIP
And on that note, I'm going to watch the snooker. Have a good evening everyone.
Well - you seem to have misunderstood slightly. But I accept I should have qualified it. As I now have.
Only because you were caught out.
Not least because the Tories can get rid of leaders that their MPs disapprove of.
EDIT: It appears she's standing down as FN leader only. Still unclear why.
Big differences elsewhere.
Panel base have a more realistic base sample for the 2014 Yes/No split.
(I think a system thing - not just that one)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-39691925
Re NHS and education, I can only comment on personal experience, unfortunately I have had some health problems recently, and the NHS has been excellent, I am fixed and back to normal life.
On education, I have 3 Grandchildren, and I observe they are receiving an excellent education,(Warrington, and Sheffield).
I wonder just how many people are having a negative experience with the NHS and Education, and maybe this is not a doorstep issue.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/apr/24/kids-company-founder-camila-batmanghelidjh-facing-directorship-ban
If someone says something that you perceive as racist then it is racist: this is the definition of racism used in this country.
It's not like there was even overwhelming demand for an Assembly. It passed the initial referendum by a margin of less than 7,000 votes.
It was just like Prescott's plan for a North East Assembly. Set up a body we can control forever, create dozens of well-paid sinecure posts for ex-county councillors, and use it as a base from which to harass the Government the next time we're out of office.
Only the cunning plan seems rather to have gone awry now. Good.
The Tories are near to 50% in the rest according to my model.
The one to reback Labour at heavy odds against is Yns Mon.
Aside from that (oh, and a budget) - it's a goer.
SpaceX might be able to launch a Dragon 2 capsule (Red Dragon) on Mars in 2020, but that's nohere near big enough to be manned or useful for a manned flight.
I think the next synods are July 2018 and ?October? 2020.
The Tories are ruthless, and not a little heartless, but at least they fucking do something.
(I'm going to stop feeding trolls now.)
1. Not much evidence in this particular poll of large scale movement to and from the SNP. Suggests Tories aren't picking up Nat Leavers, but Nats aren't picking up very many Unionist Remainers, either (there's a bit of bleed from the Lib Dems, but they're tiny in Scotland anyway.)
2. Therefore, the primary driver of the Tory resurgence is suggested to be mass defections from Labour and the Liberal Democrats, i.e. Scottish politics seems to be gradually realigning on Unionist/Nationalist lines.
3. The country remains totally split on another referendum. 52% say no (at least not for many years,) 48% say either soon, or after the Brexit talks are finished.
Would be interesting to observe whether a similar trend appears in future Scottish polls? Hopefully now that the election is on, we shall see a number of surveys from different providers.
Whereas parts of the Valleys are almost exclusively Welsh born
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_Wales#/media/File:Born_In_England_2011_Census_Wales.png
Not sure how big the max payload is for an Atlas V rocket but there's time and to spare to beef it up. So a landing in Trump's first time would be at the far right of the sanity bell curve, but not strictly speaking impossible. "Return them in safety" raises some issues though.
My guess is Donald would be taken aback if shown a to-scale diagram of the earth, the ISS in low earth orbit, the moon, and Mars.
Staff at Oxford University have been told avoiding eye contact with students could constitute "everyday racism".
It is included in a list of "racial micro-aggressions" that has been published in a newsletter by Oxford's equality and diversity unit.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-39692673
I'd be screwed - I regularly avoid eye contact because I'm so awkward.