This might not be a popular point of view, but I'd argue this is just as much the fault of the Labour moderates as it is of Corbyn, who's a symptom, not a cause. And why Labour wouldn't recover much even if they ditched him right now.
Why was it they so comprehensively failed to articulate a convincing and passionate alternative to Corbyn to their own membership back in 2015, with all the other pitches seeming so utterly insipid and hollow?
Pathetic.
Because Labour members didn't want to listen to the hard truths of the election defeat and Corbyn told them what they wanted to hear. If neither Burnham or Cooper were inspiring enough for them, they should have just left it to the grown ups to decide.
One personal thought - Ynys Mon. I really cannot see the Tories taking it. Yes, yes, we can talk about mathematics and swings but let's also remember it is one of the poorest places in Europe (never mind Britain) and it is very much a Welsh language stronghold. Neither are exactly fertile starting points for the blues.
Particularly in light of this announcement today, I would argue the value is in a Plaid gain:
This might not be a popular point of view, but I'd argue this is just as much the fault of the Labour moderates as it is of Corbyn, who's a symptom, not a cause. And why Labour wouldn't recover much even if they ditched him right now.
Why was it they so comprehensively failed to articulate a convincing and passionate alternative to Corbyn to their own membership back in 2015, with all the other pitches seeming so utterly insipid and hollow?
Pathetic.
I agree with this completely. And it's not as though they've had anything to say since Jeremy Corbyn's election other than "Oh noes" either.
Actually the blame lies with the smart arse cretins who virtue signalled their "fairness" by getting him 35 nominations. Overthinking, non common sense wankery that has destroyed their party
To my fellow blues, calm down, a single vote has yet to be cast.
You don't want to become the IOS de nos jours
Correct. This is entertaining, but there is already a lot of hubris around.
Some bad news should happen for the Tories soon, otherwise the hubristic triumphalism may be difficult to resist - in fairness I cannot blame some of them. For now plenty are doing their best to be cautious, quietly confident, but just as Lab MPs may start to crack if this keeps up for 6 weeks, Tories surely will too, in the opposite direction.
I suspect the manifesto won't be to everyone's liking.
If it is, as expected, quite light in comparison to previous ones, maybe that will blunt such an effect a bit, but it would seem probable that there will be things in there that will cause kickback. The lack of explicit promise to keep the pensions lock, for example, would be a tacit admission it is going.
Noon-Valley Wales becoming like just another bit of England....
Tory.
Parts of Wales always have been like England.
North Wales where a lot of my family are from is by-enlarge and extension of Merseyside and the North West.
Wrexham and the North Wales coast should never have been included in the devolution deal. They have far more in common (economically) with Chester/Merseyside than with Cardiff and South Wales.
One personal thought - Ynys Mon. I really cannot see the Tories taking it. Yes, yes, we can talk about mathematics and swings but let's also remember it is one of the poorest places in Europe (never mind Britain) and it is very much a Welsh language stronghold. Neither are exactly fertile starting points for the blues.
Particularly in light of this announcement today, I would argue the value is in a Plaid gain:
But it should also be remembered that regardless of national swings, the last sitting MP to be defeated here was Meghan Lloyd George in 1951 (edit - and it was a seat Labour gained at a time when Liberal transfers to the Tories gave them their first overall majority in 16 years).
I got 4/1 for the Tories yesterday. Pretty happy with that now.
@jimwaterson: Trying to contact local UKIP branches based on 2016 phone numbers = string of people saying "sorry I've joined the Tories/been kicked out".
One personal thought - Ynys Mon. I really cannot see the Tories taking it. Yes, yes, we can talk about mathematics and swings but let's also remember it is one of the poorest places in Europe (never mind Britain) and it is very much a Welsh language stronghold. Neither are exactly fertile starting points for the blues.
Particularly in light of this announcement today, I would argue the value is in a Plaid gain:
I see the Telegraph has finally realised the EU isn't about to fall apart but rather that they are gearing up to give the UK the mother of all punishment beatings
Sounds like a terrible organisation to be a part of - wouldn't a noble and decent organisation be tough but fair?
This might not be a popular point of view, but I'd argue this is just as much the fault of the Labour moderates as it is of Corbyn, who's a symptom, not a cause. And why Labour wouldn't recover much even if they ditched him right now.
Why was it they so comprehensively failed to articulate a convincing and passionate alternative to Corbyn to their own membership back in 2015, with all the other pitches seeming so utterly insipid and hollow?
Pathetic.
Replacing Corbyn now will at least safeguard some future for the party. 180 seats (catastrophic defeat as it would be) is a lot better than 120 seats.
I'm not sure it would. There are barely three weeks to pull together a coherent manifesto and platform for a totally untested leader, and the voters have already decided that Mrs. May needs her mandate.
And precisely how would they oust him? Resigning en-mass? Putting up another "real" Labour leader, and ignoring the whip? It'd make the situation even worse.
The only way he goes is if he wants to, or if he dies.
This is starting to feel like here in Scotland 6 months before polling day when the polls were projecting 45+% for the SNP - most pundits and many seasoned political betters couldn't quite believe SLAB were facing a wipeout.
Regional surveys would certainly help. The recent ComRes (with Con = 50%) had the Tories ahead in every one of the ten or so regions specified, except for the North East, and for Scotland (obviously.) But that finding is contingent on unsatisfactorily small sub-samples.
Labour in England and Wales is not, of course, facing a Scottish-style wipeout - the SNP possesses an ability to attract a very wide spectrum of voters from quite far left to centre right, which the Tories cannot quite match, along with the unifying message of independence against a divided Unionist opposition. But if things don't change, and change significantly, in favour of Labour then they could still suffer very badly.
It is sobering to reflect that with this survey the Tories are ahead of Labour in every single area of the mainland, and in second place only in Scotland.
It is becoming horribly easy to see why May thought she would never have a better moment for an election than this.
I would just like to say that I am delighted with the direction of travel and support Theresa May but I am not counting chickens yet. It does look as if nothing can stop TM getting a good majority but a landslide may or may not happen and it is too premature to call it a wipe out of labour.
With all these polls can someone explain to me exactly what is happening with the Lib Dems. It looks as if they are being drowned out and Brexit is not the winner they thought it was. How many gains for them would be realistic on this polling
I would ignore the national % for the Libs, they are very good at targetting seats.
This might not be a popular point of view, but I'd argue this is just as much the fault of the Labour moderates as it is of Corbyn, who's a symptom, not a cause. And why Labour wouldn't recover much even if they ditched him right now.
Why was it they so comprehensively failed to articulate a convincing and passionate alternative to Corbyn to their own membership back in 2015, with all the other pitches seeming so utterly insipid and hollow?
Pathetic.
Because Labour members didn't want to listen to the hard truths of the election defeat and Corbyn told them what they wanted to hear. If neither Burnham or Cooper were inspiring enough for them, they should have just left it to the grown ups to decide.
Corbyn had a simple message, like Trump. That pulled in assorted entryists as well as the Left. The field was too crowded for Cooper to cut through, and people weren't ready for the awesomeness of Liz.
Noon-Valley Wales becoming like just another bit of England....
Tory.
Parts of Wales always have been like England.
North Wales where a lot of my family are from is by-enlarge and extension of Merseyside and the North West.
Wrexham and the North Wales coast should never have been included in the devolution deal. They have far more in common (economically) with Chester/Merseyside than with Cardiff and South Wales.
Agree with your comments
ITV Wales going big time on the devastating Wales poll for labour. All adds to the narrative that Corbyn and labour are going to be shredded
Let's be very clear: no alternative leader is going to be put in place by Labour in the next 6 weeks.
Not sure. Think we should all vote Labor in the locals just in case...
#OperationSaveJezza
My hunch is that Labour will outperform (very low) expectation in the local elections. Certainly if Sion Simon manages to win in the West Midlands, it will be regarded as a major triumph by the Corbynites, and would probably be enough evidence to suggest that things *might* not be quite as bad as the polls were suggesting for any remote chance of some sort of desperate challenge to the leader to be discounted.
If the Lib Dems do reasonably well in the locals then this will be even more helpful - to the Tories. The narrative that they are trying to ram home - namely, that this victory still isn't in the bag - would be greatly reinforced.
I would just like to say that I am delighted with the direction of travel and support Theresa May but I am not counting chickens yet. It does look as if nothing can stop TM getting a good majority but a landslide may or may not happen and it is too premature to call it a wipe out of labour.
With all these polls can someone explain to me exactly what is happening with the Lib Dems. It looks as if they are being drowned out and Brexit is not the winner they thought it was. How many gains for them would be realistic on this polling
I would ignore the national % for the Libs, they are very good at targetting seats.
Health warning - we all thought that last time too!
@jimwaterson: Trying to contact local UKIP branches based on 2016 phone numbers = string of people saying "sorry I've joined the Tories/been kicked out".
This is an ex-People's Army. It is in headlong retreat.
I would just like to say that I am delighted with the direction of travel and support Theresa May but I am not counting chickens yet. It does look as if nothing can stop TM getting a good majority but a landslide may or may not happen and it is too premature to call it a wipe out of labour.
With all these polls can someone explain to me exactly what is happening with the Lib Dems. It looks as if they are being drowned out and Brexit is not the winner they thought it was. How many gains for them would be realistic on this polling
I would ignore the national % for the Libs, they are very good at targetting seats.
I expect to see a gradual rise in the LD % as we move thorough the campaign.
I see the Telegraph has finally realised the EU isn't about to fall apart but rather that they are gearing up to give the UK the mother of all punishment beatings and that all the brexiteers assertions about the ease of negotiating with the EU were lies.
With BJs US links in tatters with the demotion of Bannon and his having offended most of Europe its perhaps time for him to be put out of his misery ( Its noteworthy we haven't seen anything of him in this campaign so far)
I could easily see him dropped after the election. I don't agree with the rest of your analysis - it seems to be neddlessly masochistic in tone.
I would just like to say that I am delighted with the direction of travel and support Theresa May but I am not counting chickens yet. It does look as if nothing can stop TM getting a good majority but a landslide may or may not happen and it is too premature to call it a wipe out of labour.
With all these polls can someone explain to me exactly what is happening with the Lib Dems. It looks as if they are being drowned out and Brexit is not the winner they thought it was. How many gains for them would be realistic on this polling
I would ignore the national % for the Libs, they are very good at targetting seats.
Health warning - we all thought that last time too!
Perhaps I should add the caveat compared to Ukip who prefer a scattergun approach.
One personal thought - Ynys Mon. I really cannot see the Tories taking it. Yes, yes, we can talk about mathematics and swings but let's also remember it is one of the poorest places in Europe (never mind Britain) and it is very much a Welsh language stronghold. Neither are exactly fertile starting points for the blues.
Particularly in light of this announcement today, I would argue the value is in a Plaid gain:
I would just like to say that I am delighted with the direction of travel and support Theresa May but I am not counting chickens yet. It does look as if nothing can stop TM getting a good majority but a landslide may or may not happen and it is too premature to call it a wipe out of labour.
With all these polls can someone explain to me exactly what is happening with the Lib Dems. It looks as if they are being drowned out and Brexit is not the winner they thought it was. How many gains for them would be realistic on this polling
I would ignore the national % for the Libs, they are very good at targetting seats.
Health warning - we all thought that last time too!
I would just like to say that I am delighted with the direction of travel and support Theresa May but I am not counting chickens yet. It does look as if nothing can stop TM getting a good majority but a landslide may or may not happen and it is too premature to call it a wipe out of labour.
With all these polls can someone explain to me exactly what is happening with the Lib Dems. It looks as if they are being drowned out and Brexit is not the winner they thought it was. How many gains for them would be realistic on this polling
I would ignore the national % for the Libs, they are very good at targetting seats.
I would just like to say that I am delighted with the direction of travel and support Theresa May but I am not counting chickens yet. It does look as if nothing can stop TM getting a good majority but a landslide may or may not happen and it is too premature to call it a wipe out of labour.
With all these polls can someone explain to me exactly what is happening with the Lib Dems. It looks as if they are being drowned out and Brexit is not the winner they thought it was. How many gains for them would be realistic on this polling
I would ignore the national % for the Libs, they are very good at targetting seats.
Health warning - we all thought that last time too!
Perhaps I should add the caveat compared to Ukip who prefer a scattergun approach.
This is of course true.
But that is like saying somebody's agricultural policy proved slightly less disastrous than Mao's. If that's the only comparison...
Why was it they so comprehensively failed to articulate a convincing and passionate alternative to Corbyn to their own membership back in 2015, with all the other pitches seeming so utterly insipid and hollow?
Pathetic.
They were pitching at the country. not the membership.
You can argue that was dumb, as it cost them the leadership, but ti would have given them a chance now.
Unlike Corbyn.
The bigger mistake was not resigning the whip when he stayed after the vote of no confidence.
Their pitch to the country was just as crap: vacuous Blairism-plus, ContinuityBrown and I'maScouserwhowenttoCambridgeandhasneverkissedaTory.
Where are the serious thinkers in Labour?
Are there any?
The big mistake(s) Labour have made is to take almost all their voters outside the core cities for granted, ceased to make themselves relevant in an era where There is No Money Left, maintained a total tin ear for the concept of nationhood, and relied almost exclusively on the cuts the Tories have made to do all the hard work for them.
Corbyn could fall under a bus tomorrow, and none of that would go away.
Noon-Valley Wales becoming like just another bit of England....
Tory.
Parts of Wales always have been like England.
North Wales where a lot of my family are from is by-enlarge and extension of Merseyside and the North West.
Wrexham and the North Wales coast should never have been included in the devolution deal. They have far more in common (economically) with Chester/Merseyside than with Cardiff and South Wales.
Agree with your comments
ITV Wales going big time on the devastating Wales poll for labour. All adds to the narrative that Corbyn and labour are going to be shredded
ITV Wales - 'Conservatives ahead in Wales for first time in more than a 100 years and that Theresa May is more popular than any other party leader and the results are quite staggering and will result in a worse result than 1931'
Expert saying that the poll may be understating how bad things are in Wales
To my fellow blues, calm down, a single vote has yet to be cast.
You don't want to become the IOS de nos jours
Correct. This is entertaining, but there is already a lot of hubris around.
Some bad news should happen for the Tories soon, otherwise the hubristic triumphalism may be difficult to resist - in fairness I cannot blame some of them. For now plenty are doing their best to be cautious, quietly confident, but just as Lab MPs may start to crack if this keeps up for 6 weeks, Tories surely will too, in the opposite direction.
I think a lot of us find these numbers all too good to be true and so are having difficulty truly believing it. I think the real danger of hubris damaging the prospects will come in 2-3 weeks more of such numbers, when they are no longer shocking but are taken for granted.
One personal thought - Ynys Mon. I really cannot see the Tories taking it. Yes, yes, we can talk about mathematics and swings but let's also remember it is one of the poorest places in Europe (never mind Britain) and it is very much a Welsh language stronghold. Neither are exactly fertile starting points for the blues.
Particularly in light of this announcement today, I would argue the value is in a Plaid gain:
Now is not the time, for now the Scots agree "Now is not the time" according to May, for a second independence referendum. This was regarded by some in the SNP as a gift that they could use to their advantage:
See how Westminster is is denying democracy for Scotland, See how they are overruling the "will" of the Scottish Parliament etc. It can only increase the support for independence.
As usual these threats of a dramatic change in support for independence were hope over reality as the latest crop of polls show.
We remain largely on trend across the board and spot on trend when it comes to the log line of best fit. This implies a slight narrowing of the polls that we have already seen and is nothing new. For now then, it would seem 'now is not the time' for most Scots.
To my fellow blues, calm down, a single vote has yet to be cast.
You don't want to become the IOS de nos jours
Correct. This is entertaining, but there is already a lot of hubris around.
Some bad news should happen for the Tories soon, otherwise the hubristic triumphalism may be difficult to resist - in fairness I cannot blame some of them. For now plenty are doing their best to be cautious, quietly confident, but just as Lab MPs may start to crack if this keeps up for 6 weeks, Tories surely will too, in the opposite direction.
I suspect the manifesto won't be to everyone's liking.
If it is, as expected, quite light in comparison to previous ones, maybe that will blunt such an effect a bit, but it would seem probable that there will be things in there that will cause kickback. The lack of explicit promise to keep the pensions lock, for example, would be a tacit admission it is going.
The sensible thing to do (to not lose votes) is to map out a vision that all can buy into, without making too many specific commitments.
So "we will work to lower the overall tax burden on working people, as the economy allows) rather than "we will raise threshold X to Y within 3 years".
Why was it they so comprehensively failed to articulate a convincing and passionate alternative to Corbyn to their own membership back in 2015, with all the other pitches seeming so utterly insipid and hollow?
Pathetic.
They were pitching at the country. not the membership.
You can argue that was dumb, as it cost them the leadership, but ti would have given them a chance now.
Unlike Corbyn.
The bigger mistake was not resigning the whip when he stayed after the vote of no confidence.
Their pitch to the country was just as crap: vacuous Blairism-plus, ContinuityBrown and I'maScouserwhowenttoCambridgeandhasneverkissedaTory.
Where are the serious thinkers in Labour?
Are there any?
The big mistake(s) Labour have made is to take almost all their voters outside the core cities for granted, ceased to make themselves relevant in an era where There is No Money Left, maintained a total tin ear for the concept of nationhood, and relied almost exclusively on the cuts the Tories have made to do all the hard work for them.
Corbyn could fall under a bus tomorrow, and none of that would go away.
That is what needs to be carved into a tablet of stone, and dropped on Jez and Kez.
Why was it they so comprehensively failed to articulate a convincing and passionate alternative to Corbyn to their own membership back in 2015, with all the other pitches seeming so utterly insipid and hollow?
Pathetic.
They were pitching at the country. not the membership.
You can argue that was dumb, as it cost them the leadership, but ti would have given them a chance now.
Unlike Corbyn.
The bigger mistake was not resigning the whip when he stayed after the vote of no confidence.
Their pitch to the country was just as crap: vacuous Blairism-plus, ContinuityBrown and I'maScouserwhowenttoCambridgeandhasneverkissedaTory.
Where are the serious thinkers in Labour?
Are there any?
The big mistake(s) Labour have made is to take almost all their voters outside the core cities for granted, ceased to make themselves relevant in an era where There is No Money Left, maintained a total tin ear for the concept of nationhood, and relied almost exclusively on the cuts the Tories have made to do all the hard work for them.
Corbyn could fall under a bus tomorrow, and none of that would go away.
Do one. You don't come back from Ed Miliband and then elect a 'thinker'
This might not be a popular point of view, but I'd argue this is just as much the fault of the Labour moderates as it is of Corbyn, who's a symptom, not a cause. And why Labour wouldn't recover much even if they ditched him right now.
Why was it they so comprehensively failed to articulate a convincing and passionate alternative to Corbyn to their own membership back in 2015, with all the other pitches seeming so utterly insipid and hollow?
Pathetic.
I agree with this completely. And it's not as though they've had anything to say since Jeremy Corbyn's election other than "Oh noes" either.
It's unclear to me why Casino might regard that as an unpopular view. If I wanted to be critical of it, I might suggest it was a statement of the bleeding obvious, but I don't.
I would just like to say that I am delighted with the direction of travel and support Theresa May but I am not counting chickens yet. It does look as if nothing can stop TM getting a good majority but a landslide may or may not happen and it is too premature to call it a wipe out of labour.
With all these polls can someone explain to me exactly what is happening with the Lib Dems. It looks as if they are being drowned out and Brexit is not the winner they thought it was. How many gains for them would be realistic on this polling
I agree re: Mrs May. I can't see her not getting a good majority, but the Tories must work really hard between now and polling day to further discredit Corbyn, and Labour, and to encourage people to get out there and vote for them.
As far as the LDs are concerned, I think that the hard line Remain stance is of limited electoral value, as you suggest: just because 48% of the population voted Remain, some people behave as if that choice will be the primary governing factor in their voting behaviour. This is patent nonsense. I would contend that most Remain voters - even if they are still worried by Brexit - are not distraught Continuity Remainers. They either weighed a decision on Brexit carefully before deciding that Remain was the better option, or picked sides based on their perception of their own economic self-interest and stability. I think there was probably not all that much liking for the EU as an institution in the Remain cohort, still less genuine emotional attachment to the concept of European unity.
In short, the bulk of Remain voters are voting in this election (outside of Scotland and NI, where the dynamics are very different) to pick a Government. The choice available is between May and Corbyn, not May, Corbyn and Farron. You are quite right to suggest that the Lib Dems are getting drowned out in this binary situation, and when they do get air time they spend all of it banging on about Europe: the Lib Dems have become, in essence, Anti-Ukip. A one issue party. And that's a pitch with limited appeal outside of their irreducible core - hence the glacial speed with which their poll ratings have picked up since the EU referendum, and the fact that they appear to have levelled off again.
I wrote an essay on the Lib Dem target seats the other day. In brief, I expect them to make gains (they still count as a decent opposition to the incumbent party in some constituencies, and are very good at targetting their resources and at pavement pounding,) but the number of realistic yellow targets is rather limited, and IMHO they'll have had a great night come June 9th if they've managed to get to 20 seats. In total. Not 20 gains.
To my fellow blues, calm down, a single vote has yet to be cast.
You don't want to become the IOS de nos jours
Correct. This is entertaining, but there is already a lot of hubris around.
Some bad news should happen for the Tories soon, otherwise the hubristic triumphalism may be difficult to resist - in fairness I cannot blame some of them. For now plenty are doing their best to be cautious, quietly confident, but just as Lab MPs may start to crack if this keeps up for 6 weeks, Tories surely will too, in the opposite direction.
I suspect the manifesto won't be to everyone's liking.
If it is, as expected, quite light in comparison to previous ones, maybe that will blunt such an effect a bit, but it would seem probable that there will be things in there that will cause kickback. The lack of explicit promise to keep the pensions lock, for example, would be a tacit admission it is going.
The sensible thing to do (to not lose votes) is to map out a vision that all can buy into, without making too many specific commitments.
So "we will work to lower the overall tax burden on working people, as the economy allows) rather than "we will raise threshold X to Y within 3 years".
But if you make it too vague and generic, it won't resonate. Specifics - like being able to buy an extra 5 pints of beer a week on your tax savings, resonate more than waffle, and are more likely to provoke those who like the message into voting.
Why was it they so comprehensively failed to articulate a convincing and passionate alternative to Corbyn to their own membership back in 2015, with all the other pitches seeming so utterly insipid and hollow?
Pathetic.
They were pitching at the country. not the membership.
You can argue that was dumb, as it cost them the leadership, but ti would have given them a chance now.
Unlike Corbyn.
The bigger mistake was not resigning the whip when he stayed after the vote of no confidence.
Their pitch to the country was just as crap: vacuous Blairism-plus, ContinuityBrown and I'maScouserwhowenttoCambridgeandhasneverkissedaTory.
Where are the serious thinkers in Labour?
Are there any?
The big mistake(s) Labour have made is to take almost all their voters outside the core cities for granted, ceased to make themselves relevant in an era where There is No Money Left, maintained a total tin ear for the concept of nationhood, and relied almost exclusively on the cuts the Tories have made to do all the hard work for them.
Corbyn could fall under a bus tomorrow, and none of that would go away.
These risks were all foreseeable. I know that because I foresaw them:
I would just like to say that I am delighted with the direction of travel and support Theresa May but I am not counting chickens yet. It does look as if nothing can stop TM getting a good majority but a landslide may or may not happen and it is too premature to call it a wipe out of labour.
With all these polls can someone explain to me exactly what is happening with the Lib Dems. It looks as if they are being drowned out and Brexit is not the winner they thought it was. How many gains for them would be realistic on this polling
I would ignore the national % for the Libs, they are very good at targetting seats.
Health warning - we all thought that last time too!
This time around they're not carrying so much baggage from the Coalition, and they're a pony with a trick. Even if it is only one.
One thing is for sure - if these polls do not cause disaffected Labour voters from returning for no reason other than to save the party from an absolute shellacking, then very little will.
Still edging around 1-2 of 25% on GB wide figures though. It's odd.
Why was it they so comprehensively failed to articulate a convincing and passionate alternative to Corbyn to their own membership back in 2015, with all the other pitches seeming so utterly insipid and hollow?
Pathetic.
They were pitching at the country. not the membership.
You can argue that was dumb, as it cost them the leadership, but ti would have given them a chance now.
Unlike Corbyn.
The bigger mistake was not resigning the whip when he stayed after the vote of no confidence.
Their pitch to the country was just as crap: vacuous Blairism-plus, ContinuityBrown and I'maScouserwhowenttoCambridgeandhasneverkissedaTory.
Where are the serious thinkers in Labour?
Are there any?
The big mistake(s) Labour have made is to take almost all their voters outside the core cities for granted, ceased to make themselves relevant in an era where There is No Money Left, maintained a total tin ear for the concept of nationhood, and relied almost exclusively on the cuts the Tories have made to do all the hard work for them.
Corbyn could fall under a bus tomorrow, and none of that would go away.
With May now recycling Labour policies from its 2015 election manifesto, you do have to wonder if there are any serious thinkers in any political party.
I would just like to say that I am delighted with the direction of travel and support Theresa May but I am not counting chickens yet. It does look as if nothing can stop TM getting a good majority but a landslide may or may not happen and it is too premature to call it a wipe out of labour.
With all these polls can someone explain to me exactly what is happening with the Lib Dems. It looks as if they are being drowned out and Brexit is not the winner they thought it was. How many gains for them would be realistic on this polling
I agree re: Mrs May. I can't see her not getting a good majority, but the Tories must work really hard between now and polling day to further discredit Corbyn, and Labour, and to encourage people to get out there and vote for them.
As far as the LDs are concerned, I think that the hard line Remain stance is of limited electoral value, as you suggest: just because 48% of the population voted Remain, some people behave as if that choice will be the primary governing factor in their voting behaviour. This is patent nonsense. I would contend that most Remain voters - even if they are still worried by Brexit - are not distraught Continuity Remainers. They either weighed a decision on Brexit carefully before deciding that Remain was the better option, or picked sides based on their perception of their own economic self-interest and stability. I think there was probably not all that much liking for the EU as an institution in the Remain cohort, still less genuine emotional attachment to the concept of European unity.
In short, the bulk of Remain voters are voting in this election (outside of Scotland and NI, where the dynamics are very different) to pick a Government. The choice available is between May and Corbyn, not May, Corbyn and Farron. You are quite right to suggest that the Lib Dems are getting drowned out in this binary situation, and when they do get air time they spend all of it banging on about Europe: the Lib Dems have become, in essence, Anti-Ukip. A one issue party. And that's a pitch with limited appeal outside of their irreducible core - hence the glacial speed with which their poll ratings have picked up since the EU referendum, and the fact that they appear to have levelled off again.
I wrote an essay on the Lib Dem target seats the other day. In brief, I expect them to make gains (they still count as a decent opposition to the incumbent party in some constituencies, and are very good at targetting their resources and at pavement pounding,) but the number of realistic yellow targets is rather limited, and IMHO they'll have had a great night come June 9th if they've managed to get to 20 seats. In total. Not 20 gains.
Let's be very clear: no alternative leader is going to be put in place by Labour in the next 6 weeks.
They don't have any other choice. They must replace him.
If he won't quit of his own accord then they can't replace him. Unless the anti-Corbyn MPs get together and crown their own leader. In which case, Labour will then have two leaders and be formally riven down the middle into two openly warring factions, in front of the entire electorate (who will no longer know whom the legitimate leader, and thus Prime Ministerial candidate, actually is.) And it won't look very much better for them even if he does fall on his sword. Which he won't.
The Labour Party backed Jeremy Corbyn as leader. Now it must take the consequences.
This might not be a popular point of view, but I'd argue this is just as much the fault of the Labour moderates as it is of Corbyn, who's a symptom, not a cause. And why Labour wouldn't recover much even if they ditched him right now.
Why was it they so comprehensively failed to articulate a convincing and passionate alternative to Corbyn to their own membership back in 2015, with all the other pitches seeming so utterly insipid and hollow?
Pathetic.
It's possible that time spent on the back-benches watching the Labour leadership stumble from one disaster to another may have enabled the 2015 leadership contenders to find within themselves the passion for - something - that would fire up the membership.
Mr Blair's & Mr Brown's New Labour had everyone tied down so tightly 'on message' that it probably left many of them tongue-tied on their own genuine passions.
Why was it they so comprehensively failed to articulate a convincing and passionate alternative to Corbyn to their own membership back in 2015, with all the other pitches seeming so utterly insipid and hollow?
Pathetic.
They were pitching at the country. not the membership.
You can argue that was dumb, as it cost them the leadership, but ti would have given them a chance now.
Unlike Corbyn.
The bigger mistake was not resigning the whip when he stayed after the vote of no confidence.
Their pitch to the country was just as crap: vacuous Blairism-plus, ContinuityBrown and I'maScouserwhowenttoCambridgeandhasneverkissedaTory.
Where are the serious thinkers in Labour?
Are there any?
The big mistake(s) Labour have made is to take almost all their voters outside the core cities for granted, ceased to make themselves relevant in an era where There is No Money Left, maintained a total tin ear for the concept of nationhood, and relied almost exclusively on the cuts the Tories have made to do all the hard work for them.
Corbyn could fall under a bus tomorrow, and none of that would go away.
With May now recycling Labour policies from its 2015 election manifesto, you do have to wonder if there are any serious thinkers in any political party.
Indeed. It was a foolish idea then and its not got any better.
Why was it they so comprehensively failed to articulate a convincing and passionate alternative to Corbyn to their own membership back in 2015, with all the other pitches seeming so utterly insipid and hollow?
Pathetic.
They were pitching at the country. not the membership.
You can argue that was dumb, as it cost them the leadership, but ti would have given them a chance now.
Unlike Corbyn.
The bigger mistake was not resigning the whip when he stayed after the vote of no confidence.
Their pitch to the country was just as crap: vacuous Blairism-plus, ContinuityBrown and I'maScouserwhowenttoCambridgeandhasneverkissedaTory.
Where are the serious thinkers in Labour?
Are there any?
The big mistake(s) Labour have made is to take almost all their voters outside the core cities for granted, ceased to make themselves relevant in an era where There is No Money Left, maintained a total tin ear for the concept of nationhood, and relied almost exclusively on the cuts the Tories have made to do all the hard work for them.
Corbyn could fall under a bus tomorrow, and none of that would go away.
With May now recycling Labour policies from its 2015 election manifesto, you do have to wonder if there are any serious thinkers in any political party.
If there are, they aren't anywhere near the levers of power.
No. Ed said he would 'freeze' energy prices - meaning in the event of a fall (which duly happened) consumers would be left paying higher prices.
A 'cap' is different.
Need to see details - it may be good politics but iffy policy.
Nope - the 2015 Labour manifesto said this:
"Labour will freeze energy bills until 2017, ensuring that bills can fall but not rise, and we will give the regulator the power to cut bills this winter. During the freeze, we will reform the energy market so that it delivers fairer prices and a better deal for working families."
It won't be long before we need that Balls flatlining hand wave to describe the Libs lack of progression in the polls. And after all those Dunny-on-the-Wold triumphs.....
That Ed Miliband couldn't make a very similar policy fly, but the Tories think Theresa May can, speaks volumes about the relative credibility of both these leaders and their parties.
That, and the fact that May feels that, whilst she can't quite get away with anything, she has an awful lot of political space in which to write her own agenda.
Surprisingly good spontaneous vibes for the John Lewis chap for midlands mayor in my Brum office today. The office girls knew his name and background and were very positive about him Another repeated Theresa's line on backing her to get a good deal vs Brussels pretty much verbatim. Just anecdotage obviously.
No. Ed said he would 'freeze' energy prices - meaning in the event of a fall (which duly happened) consumers would be left paying higher prices.
A 'cap' is different.
Need to see details - it may be good politics but iffy policy.
Nope - the 2015 Labour manifesto said this:
"Labour will freeze energy bills until 2017, ensuring that bills can fall but not rise, and we will give the regulator the power to cut bills this winter. During the freeze, we will reform the energy market so that it delivers fairer prices and a better deal for working families."
The centre-left is crying out for Macron. A man actually prepare to GET OFF HIS ARSE and form a popular movement rather than sit on the back benches of a no-hope Labour party or write columns for the Grauniad.
The centre-left is crying out for Macron. A man actually prepare to GET OFF HIS ARSE and form a popular movement rather than sit on the back benches of a no-hope Labour party or write columns for the Grauniad.
"I'm not going to answer that question...because one's faith is one's personal faith. What counts is your actions and your beliefs in politics".
Funny, Tim, you seem able to proffer an opinion on most other issues of the day, moral or otherwise.
He believes homosexual acts are sinful, or can anyone think of another reason he could not find a way to answer the question? It cannot be that he's answered it directly before, and so won't repeat it, since politicians repeat themselves all the time. But his answer is very poor. But he says he has a great record defending these issues, so how can he believe homosexual acts are sinful?
That Ed Miliband couldn't make a very similar policy fly, but the Tories think Theresa May can, speaks volumes about the relative credibility of both these leaders and their parties.
That, and the fact that May feels that, whilst she can't quite get away with anything, she has an awful lot of political space in which to write her own agenda.
Ed was crap, but he was focused on the mainstream and on winning power. From time to time he came up with some very eye-catching policies, which the Tories rubbished and subsequently stole. That Ed stands head and shoulders above Corbyn, but was the second worst Labour leader since WW2 tells you all you need to know. Nick Palmer backed them both, I believe ;-)
Surprisingly good spontaneous vibes for the John Lewis chap for midlands mayor in my Brum office today. The office girls knew his name and background and were very positive about him Another repeated Theresa's line on backing her to get a good deal vs Brussels pretty much verbatim. Just anecdotage obviously.
My neighbour spontaneously mentioned the election the other day and reckoned "the John Lewis bloke" was the one to vote for.
The centre-left is crying out for Macron. A man actually prepare to GET OFF HIS ARSE and form a popular movement rather than sit on the back benches of a no-hope Labour party or write columns for the Grauniad.
Why was it they so comprehensively failed to articulate a convincing and passionate alternative to Corbyn to their own membership back in 2015, with all the other pitches seeming so utterly insipid and hollow?
Pathetic.
They were pitching at the country. not the membership.
You can argue that was dumb, as it cost them the leadership, but ti would have given them a chance now.
Unlike Corbyn.
The bigger mistake was not resigning the whip when he stayed after the vote of no confidence.
Their pitch to the country was just as crap: vacuous Blairism-plus, ContinuityBrown and I'maScouserwhowenttoCambridgeandhasneverkissedaTory.
Where are the serious thinkers in Labour?
Are there any?
The big mistake(s) Labour have made is to take almost all their voters outside the core cities for granted, ceased to make themselves relevant in an era where There is No Money Left, maintained a total tin ear for the concept of nationhood, and relied almost exclusively on the cuts the Tories have made to do all the hard work for them.
Corbyn could fall under a bus tomorrow, and none of that would go away.
A week or so back I was in Durham Cathedral and there laid up like the colours of old regiments was a Durham Miners banner which contained the portraits of three heroes of the early Labour Movement. I sat and looked at that banner and thought about those men, their times and what they tried to achieve and my mind moved on to more modern times. Attlee, Bevan, Bevin, Dalton, Ede, Wilkinson and their ilk. Then I thought about our modern Labour politicians, Butler, Cooper, Abbott, Watson etc and, of course, the fool in chief, Corbyn. To stop myself feeling sick I had to take Herself off for a drink.
One personal thought - Ynys Mon. I really cannot see the Tories taking it. Yes, yes, we can talk about mathematics and swings but let's also remember it is one of the poorest places in Europe (never mind Britain) and it is very much a Welsh language stronghold. Neither are exactly fertile starting points for the blues.
Particularly in light of this announcement today, I would argue the value is in a Plaid gain:
But it should also be remembered that regardless of national swings, the last sitting MP to be defeated here was Meghan Lloyd George in 1951 (edit - and it was a seat Labour gained at a time when Liberal transfers to the Tories gave them their first overall majority in 16 years).
I got 4/1 for the Tories yesterday. Pretty happy with that now.
I wouldn't be. I don't think I'd take less than 6-1.
The Lib Dems were pounding the streets of Oval yesterday, disturbing Sunday lunches. I wonder if this issue came up. The avoidance is deafening. It's clear as day what his beliefs are.
Could it be the only thing holding back a Tory landslide has been the Toff in Ten? Joking aside, the WWC labour vote has been waiting for anything that isn't Lord Snooty and now they have it
"Surge in betting on Jeremy Corbyn to become prime minister after he promises four extra bank holidays Labour leader currently accounts for nearly half of bets on who will be the next PM, as one bookmaker cut odds over the weekend"
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And precisely how would they oust him? Resigning en-mass? Putting up another "real" Labour leader, and ignoring the whip? It'd make the situation even worse.
The only way he goes is if he wants to, or if he dies.
It is becoming horribly easy to see why May thought she would never have a better moment for an election than this.
The field was too crowded for Cooper to cut through, and people weren't ready for the awesomeness of Liz.
If the Lib Dems do reasonably well in the locals then this will be even more helpful - to the Tories. The narrative that they are trying to ram home - namely, that this victory still isn't in the bag - would be greatly reinforced.
But that is like saying somebody's agricultural policy proved slightly less disastrous than Mao's. If that's the only comparison...
https://twitter.com/murdo_fraser/status/856503556798631937
Where are the serious thinkers in Labour?
Are there any?
The big mistake(s) Labour have made is to take almost all their voters outside the core cities for granted, ceased to make themselves relevant in an era where There is No Money Left, maintained a total tin ear for the concept of nationhood, and relied almost exclusively on the cuts the Tories have made to do all the hard work for them.
Corbyn could fall under a bus tomorrow, and none of that would go away.
Expert saying that the poll may be understating how bad things are in Wales
https://twitter.com/rhodri_jones/status/856553828627472384
I'm hurt and distressed.....
"Now is not the time" according to May, for a second independence referendum. This was regarded by some in the SNP as a gift that they could use to their advantage:
See how Westminster is is denying democracy for Scotland,
See how they are overruling the "will" of the Scottish Parliament etc.
It can only increase the support for independence.
As usual these threats of a dramatic change in support for independence were hope over reality as the latest crop of polls show.
We remain largely on trend across the board and spot on trend when it comes to the log line of best fit. This implies a slight narrowing of the polls that we have already seen and is nothing new. For now then, it would seem 'now is not the time' for most Scots.
http://rwbblog.blogspot.co.id/2017/04/now-is-not-time-for-now-scots-agree.html?m=1
So "we will work to lower the overall tax burden on working people, as the economy allows) rather than "we will raise threshold X to Y within 3 years".
Anyone know the detail behind this yet?
As far as the LDs are concerned, I think that the hard line Remain stance is of limited electoral value, as you suggest: just because 48% of the population voted Remain, some people behave as if that choice will be the primary governing factor in their voting behaviour. This is patent nonsense. I would contend that most Remain voters - even if they are still worried by Brexit - are not distraught Continuity Remainers. They either weighed a decision on Brexit carefully before deciding that Remain was the better option, or picked sides based on their perception of their own economic self-interest and stability. I think there was probably not all that much liking for the EU as an institution in the Remain cohort, still less genuine emotional attachment to the concept of European unity.
In short, the bulk of Remain voters are voting in this election (outside of Scotland and NI, where the dynamics are very different) to pick a Government. The choice available is between May and Corbyn, not May, Corbyn and Farron. You are quite right to suggest that the Lib Dems are getting drowned out in this binary situation, and when they do get air time they spend all of it banging on about Europe: the Lib Dems have become, in essence, Anti-Ukip. A one issue party. And that's a pitch with limited appeal outside of their irreducible core - hence the glacial speed with which their poll ratings have picked up since the EU referendum, and the fact that they appear to have levelled off again.
I wrote an essay on the Lib Dem target seats the other day. In brief, I expect them to make gains (they still count as a decent opposition to the incumbent party in some constituencies, and are very good at targetting their resources and at pavement pounding,) but the number of realistic yellow targets is rather limited, and IMHO they'll have had a great night come June 9th if they've managed to get to 20 seats. In total. Not 20 gains.
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2015/05/2020-geography-of-labours-next-campaign.html
I'm not claiming any great brilliance because plenty of others foresaw them too.
Still edging around 1-2 of 25% on GB wide figures though. It's odd.
Never!
A 'cap' is different.
Need to see details - it may be good politics but iffy policy.
The Labour Party backed Jeremy Corbyn as leader. Now it must take the consequences.
Mr Blair's & Mr Brown's New Labour had everyone tied down so tightly 'on message' that it probably left many of them tongue-tied on their own genuine passions.
Manifesto published May 8.....
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/856556769174110208
There are nine seats where Liberal Democrats are within striking distance of victory in an election fought on Brexit issues."
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/04/constituencies-where-liberal-democrats-can-take-tories
"Labour will freeze energy bills until 2017, ensuring that bills can fall but not
rise, and we will give the regulator the power to cut bills this winter. During
the freeze, we will reform the energy market so that it delivers fairer prices
and a better deal for working families."
That, and the fact that May feels that, whilst she can't quite get away with anything, she has an awful lot of political space in which to write her own agenda.
Funny, Tim, you seem able to proffer an opinion on most other issues of the day, moral or otherwise.
He believes homosexual acts are sinful, or can anyone think of another reason he could not find a way to answer the question? It cannot be that he's answered it directly before, and so won't repeat it, since politicians repeat themselves all the time. But his answer is very poor. But he says he has a great record defending these issues, so how can he believe homosexual acts are sinful?
It will cost him a few votes.
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/856560178292023296
So that's at least 2...
https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/856559822644404228
But stranger things have happened.
came up. The avoidance is deafening. It's clear as day what his beliefs are.
Funny, we were told Cameron's popularity was the only thing keeping the Tories afloat.
Joking aside, the WWC labour vote has been waiting for anything that isn't Lord Snooty and now they have it
"Surge in betting on Jeremy Corbyn to become prime minister after he promises four extra bank holidays
Labour leader currently accounts for nearly half of bets on who will be the next PM, as one bookmaker cut odds over the weekend"
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-corbyn-prime-minister-surge-in-bets-announcement-four-extra-bank-holidays-labour-leader-party-a7699121.html