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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP’s collapse gives huge boost to CON in Wales. Now 10% ahea
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP’s collapse gives huge boost to CON in Wales. Now 10% ahead
The sheer scale of the disaster facing Corbyn’s Labour is brought home in the latest YouGov Welsh poll for Cardiff University and ITV. The figures are in the chart.
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Eh? That can't be right?
Tory.
https://twitter.com/Owain_Phillips/status/856527109539450880
That is a surprisingly high leader rating for Corbyn. I imagine the Labour vote could potentially fall further.
Even I, a serial Labour hyper (albeit I'm not a Labour voter to date), even recognising we have a long campaign still to go and anything can happen, is thinking this is looking realllly bad for Labour.
As with the SNP tidal wave, when people shift, they can shift en masse. There's a question of whether all those suggesting this will follow through, but some clearly will, and others, well, after a critical mass people will no longer feel strange doing it.
You don't want to become the IOS de nos jours
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GXFSK0ogeg4
https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/800/1*NZaNH0SFe67HtTxKrPXkAg.png
Remember the Ashcroft Polls and what happened to Nick Palmer.
What do they do if Corbyn refuses to go after the election?
Mr. Rabbit, or, to paraphrase Murray Walked - there's nothing wrong with the Labour Party, except that it's on fire.
.... I hope after the election they either finally get rid of Corbyn or just split. The country needs an opposition.
Take the piss with the voters, and they'll shower it right back at you...
Has anyone checked Pope Emeritus Benedict's newsfeed to see if this other revelation has come to pass?
This is the key question. Can we get a thread on this from a Labour insider?
.https://order-order.com/2017/04/24/corbynista-unfurls-farron-hates-gays-placard-libdem-launch/
Obvs this is not a normal situation though
The Tories have the boots on the ground to convert this. Hell, I might even join in and campaign for the Tories and I was still disillusioned due to Brexit and unsure who I was going to vote for in this election last week.
Corbyn is so repellent to voters that I would not be surprised if the end result was something like Tories 49% to Labour's 18%. Whether we will see 1997 style "Out Out Out" chanting like in Putney between James Goldsmith and David Mellor I don't know. But this is going to be an amazing election to witness.
Edit - more surprised they haven't included either of the Williams.
Back on the main headline, this is beginning to look a bit like a Labour death spiral. Each time one of these polls comes out, another group of voters wonder what the country's got against that nice Mr. Corbyn, do a bit of research, and switch (or decide to stay at home).
Lots could happen in the next 45 days of course but there must now be an outside possibility of Labour heading for pre-WW2 seat numbers surely?
https://twitter.com/ariehkovler/status/856540145989931008
Secondly, regarding *that* Welsh poll:
@AlastairMeeks said:
"The Wales poll is a 9.5% swing since the general election (the equivalent of the Conservatives having a 25% lead over Labour across the whole of the UK)."
This makes the Welsh figures sound quite plausible, when you think about it: the GB-wide leads over Labour have been coming out in the low 20s, and those are inclusive of inner London and other surviving Labour core territories where the Tories are often very weak indeed.
Furthermore...
* Welsh Labour have been in power, with a chequered record, ever since 1999. They misplaced about a fifth of their entire vote in the last Assembly election. The signs of decline have been apparent for some time.
* Plaid Cymru, who are an eccentric cross between a Welsh language defence group and a quite left-wing Socialist Party, have not had the same sort of impact as the SNP, or anywhere remotely like it. With the odd exception - Leanne Wood's spectacular victory in the Rhondda last year, and one or two other Assembly near misses - they do not poll especially well outside of the language belt.
* More generally - the language belt aside - Welsh voting patterns are more like those of Yorkshire than of Scotland. Even though the Tories were eliminated in Wales in 1997, they never acquired the same toxic taint as in Scotland, and have been able to rebuild steadily since. Nor is there any significant independence movement in Wales. Nor did it vote to Remain in the EU.
* Although I've yet to see tables, the headline changes from the last Welsh Barometer in January suggest both direct Lab to Con voter migration, and indirect movement: I would suggest that at least the greater part of the collapsing Ukip vote, which appears to be moving almost entirely to the Tories as elsewhere, is comprised of fed up ex-Labour supporters whom, having broken their previous voting patterns, now find the final step to backing Mrs May somewhat easier than might otherwise have been the case.
In any event, these changes are spectacular, and hopefully there will be further Welsh research during the campaign to help us to verify whether these numbers are about right for the Tories, or fall into the "too good to be true" category.
As for Labour, with Scotland already gone, if it can't even hold onto Wales any more then, well, it's heading - in terms of both geographic extent and vote share, if not seat count - for a worse defeat than John Major in 1997, isn't it? Labour losing most of the seats in Wales is rather like the Tories losing most of the seats in Buckinghamshire - something that you would normally expect to see only during an extinction level event.
This is starting to feel like here in Scotland 6 months before polling day when the polls were projecting 45+% for the SNP - most pundits and many seasoned political betters couldn't quite believe SLAB were facing a wipeout.
Plus the fact that I had some crazily long odds on the SNP in the constituencies also made me even more cautious, I was like I'm not going to win all these bets am I?
*Smug bastard mode*
More UKIP to squeeze in Lab Marginals.
http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/
I never paid the Ashcroft polls much nevermind. I would point out that the difference between what was forecast in 2015 and what happened was pretty modest; it was only important because it was at a tipping point. If current indications are out by twice as much as 2015 ones were, in either direction, the result is still a Labour disaster.
#OperationSaveJezza
In 1931 Labour won 46 seats, six won as Independent Socialists, plus there were 13 National Labour. It is also difficult to see Corbyn winning that few even at this moment.
However, it is also extremely hard to see him getting the 32% of the vote (U.K. wide) Macdonald, Henderson and the independents managed between them. Which means while the headline figures may be less cataclysmic, the way back looks a lot, lot harder.
Buckingham is not exactly the kind of place where one might expect the Lib Dems, starting from nothing, to score a dramatic victory. It's not even a mad-keen Remain area.
This projected wipeout might carry on all the way to 8th June, and actually happen.
Or it might not.
https://twitter.com/jgforsyth/status/856548246696710145
Why was it they so comprehensively failed to articulate a convincing and passionate alternative to Corbyn to their own membership back in 2015, with all the other pitches seeming so utterly insipid and hollow?
Pathetic.
You can argue that was dumb, as it cost them the leadership, but ti would have given them a chance now.
Unlike Corbyn.
The bigger mistake was not resigning the whip when he stayed after the vote of no confidence.
Particularly in light of this announcement today, I would argue the value is in a Plaid gain:
http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/former-plaid-leader-ieuan-wyn-12935317
But it should also be remembered that regardless of national swings, the last sitting MP to be defeated here was Meghan Lloyd George in 1951 (edit - and it was a seat Labour gained at a time when Liberal transfers to the Tories gave them their first overall majority in 16 years).
North Wales where a lot of my family are from is by-enlarge and extension of Merseyside and the North West.
Wrexham and the North Wales coast should never have been included in the devolution deal. They have far more in common (economically) with Chester/Merseyside than with Cardiff and South Wales.
Massive landslide for May.
I'm already on the Conservatives at 7/1 in this seat.
Labour in England and Wales is not, of course, facing a Scottish-style wipeout - the SNP possesses an ability to attract a very wide spectrum of voters from quite far left to centre right, which the Tories cannot quite match, along with the unifying message of independence against a divided Unionist opposition. But if things don't change, and change significantly, in favour of Labour then they could still suffer very badly.
That's a swing of 10% to the Conservatives since 2012.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/24/five-reasons-emmanuel-macron-would-bad-brexit-theresa-may/
With BJs US links in tatters with the demotion of Bannon and his having offended most of Europe its perhaps time for him to be put out of his misery ( Its noteworthy we haven't seen anything of him in this campaign so far)
With all these polls can someone explain to me exactly what is happening with the Lib Dems. It looks as if they are being drowned out and Brexit is not the winner they thought it was. How many gains for them would be realistic on this polling