If the polls are anything close to correct then this is shaping up to be the most fascinating election to be held during my lifetime.
Even as a Lib Dem (albeit one who used to vote Conservative at all previous general elections until the EU referendum showed me that I'm more "yellow" than "blue") I don't find it at all difficult to understand Theresa May's popularity. I'll readily concede that I find her to be the most likeable of the party leaders by some distance. I don't even feel particularly uncomfortable with the idea of a Conservative landslide or super-landslide in the present circumstances... though obviously I would very much prefer very substantial Lib Dem progress. The main thing is that Corbyn's Labour needs to be politically killed off for the greater good of UK politics.
My theory is that the important battles that faced those great men have largely been won. The country no longer has vast areas that could be from "the road to Wigan Pier". The great injustices have largely (though not wholly) gone, and what's more, Labour won many of the battles.
But nowadays we're talking about 'relative' poverty. We're talking about the state of the NHS, not the availability of universal healthcare. People have statutory holidays, and there is a minimum wage.
Now Labour's won the big battles, they have to move on to smaller items. And the public gives a heartfelt "meh!"
If that were so the party would not rebound, ever. Even the most optimistic Tory would not say that I think.
I think that's going a little far. It's just that the foundations on which the Labour party were built have largely disappeared, and it has failed to evolve.
I think Blair recognised this, and this was part (though not all) of his thinking with 'the third way'. A move away from the party's roots towards electibility. An evolution that was sadly reversible.
With the battles won, Labour are left with redundant trade unionism and socialism. Hence Corbyn, and the difficulty in shifting him. Fifty years ago those two factors were supported by real injustices. Nowadays, whilst there are injustices about, they're generally more nebulous.
Labour have won some big battles, and irrevocably lost others.
But, there must be a place for a centre left party.
Is Kezia Dugdale worse than Corbyn ? Or, has she been dealt a poor hand ?
That is a very good question.
In fairness, I don't know enough about her to guess an answer.
In further fairness, Corbyn was dealt a pretty poor hand as well, and has played it with skill and sophistication - that is, the skill and sophistication of a drunken village idiot who moonlights as an officer of the Student Loan Company.
@AndyJS is right. Labour have nothing left to lose. Knife Corbyn the morning after parliament dissolves, before if they can find a way.
How? If they could do it they would already have done it.
Andy has already explained how it could be done - the dissolution of parliament means they could rebel en masse and still fight as anti Corbyn Labour. Nothing stopping them doing it.
That is the nuclear option though isn't it? There would be a lot of constituencies with two 'Labour' candidates, there would be huge rows over what name they could use and May would be looking at 500+ seats.
Can you register candidates after parliament dissolves? The trick is to stage the rebellion after the registration date, surely?
Ouch! Has any parliamentary candidate for a main party ever defected between being nominated and polling date?
I can see that that might be the only way to do it, but there would be lawyers all over it to start with. I also get the impression that the Labour Party is even less keen on what it sees as betrayal than the Conservatives. Corbyn would hang on to the party name, funds and database and both sides would be slaughtered in the polls while May looked on slightly bemused.
It would be just like the Tory party leadership contest all over again.
No. Ed said he would 'freeze' energy prices - meaning in the event of a fall (which duly happened) consumers would be left paying higher prices.
A 'cap' is different.
Need to see details - it may be good politics but iffy policy.
Nope - the 2015 Labour manifesto said this:
"Labour will freeze energy bills until 2017, ensuring that bills can fall but not rise, and we will give the regulator the power to cut bills this winter. During the freeze, we will reform the energy market so that it delivers fairer prices and a better deal for working families."
Nice try SO - but no cigar:
Labour would freeze gas and electricity bills for every home and business in the UK for 20 months if it wins the 2015 election, Ed Miliband has said.
It's in the manifesto. In black and white: ""Labour will freeze energy bills until 2017, ensuring that bills can fall but not rise." It's precisely what May is proposing.
So the Tories improved Miliband's initially poor idea and made it into a better less worse one!
As I wrote the other day:
Miliband proposes freeze = Bad May proposes freeze = good
I might have to go and have a lie down, as I agree with Nick....Lab vote seems to be stuck at 25%. Looks like that might be the bedrock for Labour support, still impressive as we always used to talk about Labour and Tory having a firewall of 30%.
Labour's firewall could not be 30%. In 2010, it got 29+% and in 1983, it received 28+ %. In both cases, Scotland was big with Labour.
If Lib Dem Voice is any indication, the Lib Dems don't want to be middle of the road, and increasingly want a progressive alliance (while recognising working with Lab in particular is complicated).
Seems like we truly might as well just have two parties for each country of the UK.
I might have to go and have a lie down, as I agree with Nick....Lab vote seems to be stuck at 25%. Looks like that might be the bedrock for Labour support, still impressive as we always used to talk about Labour and Tory having a firewall of 30%.
Labour's firewall could not be 30%. In 2010, it got 29+% and in 1983, it received 28+ %. In both cases, Scotland was big with Labour.
So the equivalent figure would be about 26%.
The comment we pre-2010, where we regularly said when Brown was polling 25-26% that still Labour brand strong enough to get 30%....and they very nearly did.
No. Ed said he would 'freeze' energy prices - meaning in the event of a fall (which duly happened) consumers would be left paying higher prices.
A 'cap' is different.
Need to see details - it may be good politics but iffy policy.
Nope - the 2015 Labour manifesto said this:
"Labour will freeze energy bills until 2017, ensuring that bills can fall but not rise, and we will give the regulator the power to cut bills this winter. During the freeze, we will reform the energy market so that it delivers fairer prices and a better deal for working families."
Nice try SO - but no cigar:
Labour would freeze gas and electricity bills for every home and business in the UK for 20 months if it wins the 2015 election, Ed Miliband has said.
It's in the manifesto. In black and white: ""Labour will freeze energy bills until 2017, ensuring that bills can fall but not rise." It's precisely what May is proposing.
So the Tories improved Miliband's initially poor idea and made it into a better less worse one!
As I wrote the other day:
Miliband proposes freeze = Bad May proposes freeze = good
PB Tories = PB Hypocrites
Several PB Tories have acted with hostility to the proposal.
Presumably because no matter whether it is proposed by a party that is red, blue or orange with pink spots, it is as Cicero pointed out a damn fool and disastrous proposal.
No. Ed said he would 'freeze' energy prices - meaning in the event of a fall (which duly happened) consumers would be left paying higher prices.
A 'cap' is different.
Need to see details - it may be good politics but iffy policy.
Nope - the 2015 Labour manifesto said this:
"Labour will freeze energy bills until 2017, ensuring that bills can fall but not rise, and we will give the regulator the power to cut bills this winter. During the freeze, we will reform the energy market so that it delivers fairer prices and a better deal for working families."
Nice try SO - but no cigar:
Labour would freeze gas and electricity bills for every home and business in the UK for 20 months if it wins the 2015 election, Ed Miliband has said.
It's in the manifesto. In black and white: ""Labour will freeze energy bills until 2017, ensuring that bills can fall but not rise." It's precisely what May is proposing.
So the Tories improved Miliband's initially poor idea and made it into a better less worse one!
As I wrote the other day:
Miliband proposes freeze = Bad May proposes freeze = good
Interesting, looks as though the LDs are standing against the Speaker.
Yes, announced yesterday I believe. I wonder what the logic of that is?
Buckingham is not exactly the kind of place where one might expect the Lib Dems, starting from nothing, to score a dramatic victory. It's not even a mad-keen Remain area.
Why was it they so comprehensively failed to articulate a convincing and passionate alternative to Corbyn to their own membership back in 2015, with all the other pitches seeming so utterly insipid and hollow?
Pathetic.
They were pitching at the country. not the membership.
You can argue that was dumb, as it cost them the leadership, but ti would have given them a chance now.
Unlike Corbyn.
The bigger mistake was not resigning the whip when he stayed after the vote of no confidence.
Their pitch to the country was just as crap: vacuous Blairism-plus, ContinuityBrown and I'maScouserwhowenttoCambridgeandhasneverkissedaTory.
Where are the serious thinkers in Labour?
Are there any?
The big mistake(s) Labour have made is to take almost all their voters outside the core cities for granted, ceased to make themselves relevant in an era where There is No Money Left, maintained a total tin ear for the concept of nationhood, and relied almost exclusively on the cuts the Tories have made to do all the hard work for them.
Corbyn could fall under a bus tomorrow, and none of that would go away.
A week or so back I was in Durham
My theory is that the important battles that faced those great men have largely been won. The country no longer has vast areas that could be from "the road to Wigan Pier". The great injustices have largely (though not wholly) gone, and what's more, Labour won many of the battles.
But nowadays we're talking about 'relative' poverty. We're talking about the state of the NHS, not the availability of universal healthcare. People have statutory holidays, and there is a minimum wage.
Now Labour's won the big battles, they have to move on to smaller items. And the public gives a heartfelt "meh!"
A very fair point, Mr. Jessop. Perhaps then Labour, like UKIP, is a party whose job is done. They both have nothing more relevant to say and should go into history together. Perhaps that is the message of this GE, an explanation, if you will, of what is going on.
It is the reason that private sector unions have declined, so I agree that JJ has a point. The Labour battle is won. It is the failure to formulate Macron style optomistic Social Democracy that will do in Jezza.
Council election leaflet manages a new Con record of mentioning Conservatives more than the legal minimum, however Independence + Referendum beats out Conservative by 8 to 7 overall.
For referemce the SNP council leaflet mentioned independence and referendum zero times but it is apparently the SNP who are obsessed.
My theory is that the important battles that faced those great men have largely been won. The country no longer has vast areas that could be from "the road to Wigan Pier". The great injustices have largely (though not wholly) gone, and what's more, Labour won many of the battles.
But nowadays we're talking about 'relative' poverty. We're talking about the state of the NHS, not the availability of universal healthcare. People have statutory holidays, and there is a minimum wage.
Now Labour's won the big battles, they have to move on to smaller items. And the public gives a heartfelt "meh!"
If that were so the party would not rebound, ever. Even the most optimistic Tory would not say that I think.
I think that's going a little far. It's just that the foundations on which the Labour party were built have largely disappeared, and it has failed to evolve.
I think Blair recognised this, and this was part (though not all) of his thinking with 'the third way'. A move away from the party's roots towards electibility. An evolution that was sadly reversible.
With the battles won, Labour are left with redundant trade unionism and socialism. Hence Corbyn, and the difficulty in shifting him. Fifty years ago those two factors were supported by real injustices. Nowadays, whilst there are injustices about, they're generally more nebulous.
Just dissecting the tables for the Welsh poll. The values displayed are largely reminiscent of the GB-wide surveys, except that the crossover to the Tories as the first party occurs further up the age range, and the Conservative lead amongst the C2DE's is narrow (but it is still there.)
Other observations (with the usual caveats about small sub-sample sizes):
1. Only about a third of 2015 Ukip voters still backed the party, with almost all of the defectors intending to back the Tories (the fact that Ukip isn't lower than 6% appears to be down to small dribs and drabs crossing over from other parties, but not on a significant scale.) 2. The headline Conservative lead of 10% masks a heavy (and predictable) geographical skew. Broken down by region, Labour is ahead by 10% in Cardiff and South Central (basically, the Valleys,) but behind the Tories by anything between 12% and 22% in the other regions. Those sub-samples are small, *but* taken together they indicate a substantial Conservative advantage everywhere in the country outside of that South Central zone. This suggests that the mooted wipeout everywhere except Cardiff, Swansea, Llanelli and the Valleys is very much a possibility.
What do they do if Corbyn refuses to go after the election?
Mr. Rabbit, or, to paraphrase Murray Walked - there's nothing wrong with the Labour Party, except that it's on fire.
.... I hope after the election they either finally get rid of Corbyn or just split. The country needs an opposition.
'What do they do if Corbyn refuses to go after the election?'
This is the key question. Can we get a thread on this from a Labour insider?
It won't be his decision. He will be challenged - and trounced.
Will he? I will the cultists remain deluded and believe all the tosh about the campaign being undermined by Mandelson? Or have they all failed to renew their membership fees?
If the polls are anything close to correct then this is shaping up to be the most fascinating election to be held during my lifetime.
Even as a Lib Dem (albeit one who used to vote Conservative at all previous general elections until the EU referendum showed me that I'm more "yellow" than "blue") I don't find it at all difficult to understand Theresa May's popularity. I'll readily concede that I find her to be the most likeable of the party leaders by some distance. I don't even feel particularly uncomfortable with the idea of a Conservative landslide or super-landslide in the present circumstances... though obviously I would very much prefer very substantial Lib Dem progress. The main thing is that Corbyn's Labour needs to be politically killed off for the greater good of UK politics.
Interesting, looks as though the LDs are standing against the Speaker.
Yes, announced yesterday I believe. I wonder what the logic of that is?
Buckingham is not exactly the kind of place where one might expect the Lib Dems, starting from nothing, to score a dramatic victory. It's not even a mad-keen Remain area.
No. Ed said he would 'freeze' energy prices - meaning in the event of a fall (which duly happened) consumers would be left paying higher prices.
A 'cap' is different.
Need to see details - it may be good politics but iffy policy.
Nope - the 2015 Labour manifesto said this:
"Labour will freeze energy bills until 2017, ensuring that bills can fall but not rise, and we will give the regulator the power to cut bills this winter. During the freeze, we will reform the energy market so that it delivers fairer prices and a better deal for working families."
Nice try SO - but no cigar:
Labour would freeze gas and electricity bills for every home and business in the UK for 20 months if it wins the 2015 election, Ed Miliband has said.
It's in the manifesto. In black and white: ""Labour will freeze energy bills until 2017, ensuring that bills can fall but not rise." It's precisely what May is proposing.
So the Tories improved Miliband's initially poor idea and made it into a better less worse one!
As I wrote the other day:
Miliband proposes freeze = Bad May proposes freeze = good
PB Tories = PB Hypocrites
Several PB Tories have acted with hostility to the proposal.
I thought we were all PB Tories now?
But leaving that aside, I'd need a great deal of persuasion that this policy was a good one. It doesn't seem quite as stupid as Ed's initial offering, but that view could easily change.
The energy market is borken in many ways. This does not seem to be addressing the correct issues.
No. Ed said he would 'freeze' energy prices - meaning in the event of a fall (which duly happened) consumers would be left paying higher prices.
A 'cap' is different.
Need to see details - it may be good politics but iffy policy.
Nope - the 2015 Labour manifesto said this:
"Labour will freeze energy bills until 2017, ensuring that bills can fall but not rise, and we will give the regulator the power to cut bills this winter. During the freeze, we will reform the energy market so that it delivers fairer prices and a better deal for working families."
Nice try SO - but no cigar:
Labour would freeze gas and electricity bills for every home and business in the UK for 20 months if it wins the 2015 election, Ed Miliband has said.
It's in the manifesto. In black and white: ""Labour will freeze energy bills until 2017, ensuring that bills can fall but not rise." It's precisely what May is proposing.
So the Tories improved Miliband's initially poor idea and made it into a better less worse one!
As I wrote the other day:
Miliband proposes freeze = Bad May proposes freeze = good
PB Tories = PB Hypocrites
May isn't proposing a freeze.
But apart from that......
It essentially amounts to the same thing. Continue your pointless spinning if you like...
Is Kezia Dugdale worse than Corbyn ? Or, has she been dealt a poor hand ?
What can she do realistically?
You either commit to it fully, and say "let's rally behind Jez and kick the Tories out! SNP votes can't do that! Only we can form a Government!" or you do what some Labour MPs are doing and say, "we won't win, but vote for us anyway to allow us to regroup in the Autumn under a new leader and form an opposition with more than about 150 seats".
I don't see the latter approach being effective as people don't distinguish. When the Tories were routed in 1997, or the Lib Dems in 2015, it didn't matter a damn if the candidate said "I was a rebel so not really responsible". Realistically, the choice is hanging together or hanging separately.
That said, an MP who has opposed Corbyn vocally may just feel incapable of spouting the former line with any conviction. The latter approach has the advantage of honesty even if it's doomed.
Council election leaflet manages a new Con record of mentioning Conservatives more than the legal minimum, however Independence + Referendum beats out Conservative by 8 to 7 overall.
For referemce the SNP council leaflet mentioned independence and referendum zero times but it is apparently the SNP who are obsessed.
It's interesting that all the polls are showing that Labour's vote is fairly stable at a low level (26ish): there isn't a panicky flight from Corbyn. What's happening is that UKIP's vote (some of it former Labour) is going Tory. The poll published earlier this week showing that the Tory score has actually declined in Tory seats while increasing in strong Labour seats is a good illustration. That's as the Tories would want it, in terms of winning seats, though it may not be altogether healthy in the medium term if they can't meet the aspirations of their former Kipper friends.
Fox's anecdata:
1) Romsey Constituency, visiting grandpa Fox: Orange diamonds and blue posters sighted in equal (low!) numbers.
2) Overheard train conversation of bunch of students heading London to Leeds. Not v keen on Corbyn, but voting Labour anyway.
3) Naturalised Greek voting LD in Harborough, his British wife voting Labour.
#2 - Chances they actually get registered and don't forget / oversleep / can be arsed to get to the polling station....very low.
They were spontaneously talking about it on the train, so presumably more motivated than most!
Every day I look at the @newdawn1997 Tweets - a cut and paste job for today's headline writers re 2017. Looks as if Worcester Women & Mondeo Men are no longer voting Labour.
1997 was bad for The Tories, it took them 5 General Elections to get a majority, and even then Cameron contrived to screw things up by that Referendum.
It could be a long way back for Labour.
1997 was bad for the Tories in terms of seats but their vote share was 31.4% in GB. Labour would be happy to get that sort of percentage this time. In fact it's 0.2 points higher than Ed got in 2015.
This might not be a popular point of view, but I'd argue this is just as much the fault of the Labour moderates as it is of Corbyn, who's a symptom, not a cause. And why Labour wouldn't recover much even if they ditched him right now.
Why was it they so comprehensively failed to articulate a convincing and passionate alternative to Corbyn to their own membership back in 2015, with all the other pitches seeming so utterly insipid and hollow?
No. Ed said he would 'freeze' energy prices - meaning in the event of a fall (which duly happened) consumers would be left paying higher prices.
A 'cap' is different.
Need to see details - it may be good politics but iffy policy.
Nope - the 2015 Labour manifesto said this:
"Labour will freeze energy bills until 2017, ensuring that bills can fall but not rise, and we will give the regulator the power to cut bills this winter. During the freeze, we will reform the energy market so that it delivers fairer prices and a better deal for working families."
Nice try SO - but no cigar:
Labour would freeze gas and electricity bills for every home and business in the UK for 20 months if it wins the 2015 election, Ed Miliband has said.
It's in the manifesto. In black and white: ""Labour will freeze energy bills until 2017, ensuring that bills can fall but not rise." It's precisely what May is proposing.
So the Tories improved Miliband's initially poor idea and made it into a better less worse one!
As I wrote the other day:
Miliband proposes freeze = Bad May proposes freeze = good
PB Tories = PB Hypocrites
Several PB Tories have acted with hostility to the proposal.
Not Carlotta and Fitalass. But then again, CCHQ dictates...........
Not sure if Kezia Dugdale is tilting at windmills or just having her last rant. She's in for a rude awakening, come June 10th and probably out on her ear.
No. Ed said he would 'freeze' energy prices - meaning in the event of a fall (which duly happened) consumers would be left paying higher prices.
A 'cap' is different.
Need to see details - it may be good politics but iffy policy.
Nope - the 2015 Labour manifesto said this:
"Labour will freeze energy bills until 2017, ensuring that bills can fall but not rise, and we will give the regulator the power to cut bills this winter. During the freeze, we will reform the energy market so that it delivers fairer prices and a better deal for working families."
Nice try SO - but no cigar:
Labour would freeze gas and electricity bills for every home and business in the UK for 20 months if it wins the 2015 election, Ed Miliband has said.
It's in the manifesto. In black and white: ""Labour will freeze energy bills until 2017, ensuring that bills can fall but not rise." It's precisely what May is proposing.
So the Tories improved Miliband's initially poor idea and made it into a better less worse one!
As I wrote the other day:
Miliband proposes freeze = Bad May proposes freeze = good
PB Tories = PB Hypocrites
Several PB Tories have acted with hostility to the proposal.
I have to agree with other posters, this is tectonic plate shifting moment stuff, there is some major re alignment going on, it is not a Maygasm,yes Corbyn is crap, but the change is much more than that, beginning to think that it is becoming increasingly unpopular to associate yourself with the Labour brand. Start of the Shy Labour vote?
No. Ed said he would 'freeze' energy prices - meaning in the event of a fall (which duly happened) consumers would be left paying higher prices.
A 'cap' is different.
Need to see details - it may be good politics but iffy policy.
Nope - the 2015 Labour manifesto said this:
"Labour will freeze energy bills until 2017, ensuring that bills can fall but not rise, and we will give the regulator the power to cut bills this winter. During the freeze, we will reform the energy market so that it delivers fairer prices and a better deal for working families."
Nice try SO - but no cigar:
Labour would freeze gas and electricity bills for every home and business in the UK for 20 months if it wins the 2015 election, Ed Miliband has said.
It's in the manifesto. In black and white: ""Labour will freeze energy bills until 2017, ensuring that bills can fall but not rise." It's precisely what May is proposing.
So the Tories improved Miliband's initially poor idea and made it into a better less worse one!
As I wrote the other day:
Miliband proposes freeze = Bad May proposes freeze = good
PB Tories = PB Hypocrites
Several PB Tories have acted with hostility to the proposal.
Not Carlotta and Fitalass.
Even PB Tories are not a homogenous mass.
I was a PB Tory for a couple of days!
A subset of the PB Tories are the PB Burleys. Those are truly nasty folk!
I might have to go and have a lie down, as I agree with Nick....Lab vote seems to be stuck at 25%. Looks like that might be the bedrock for Labour support, still impressive as we always used to talk about Labour and Tory having a firewall of 30%.
Labour's firewall could not be 30%. In 2010, it got 29+% and in 1983, it received 28+ %. In both cases, Scotland was big with Labour.
So the equivalent figure would be about 26%.
There is no firewall (rock bottom) percentage. SLAB have proven that, why should England or Wales be different?
No. Ed said he would 'freeze' energy prices - meaning in the event of a fall (which duly happened) consumers would be left paying higher prices.
A 'cap' is different.
Need to see details - it may be good politics but iffy policy.
Nope - the 2015 Labour manifesto said this:
"Labour will freeze energy bills until 2017, ensuring that bills can fall but not rise, and we will give the regulator the power to cut bills this winter. During the freeze, we will reform the energy market so that it delivers fairer prices and a better deal for working families."
Nice try SO - but no cigar:
Labour would freeze gas and electricity bills for every home and business in the UK for 20 months if it wins the 2015 election, Ed Miliband has said.
It's in the manifesto. In black and white: ""Labour will freeze energy bills until 2017, ensuring that bills can fall but not rise." It's precisely what May is proposing.
So the Tories improved Miliband's initially poor idea and made it into a better less worse one!
As I wrote the other day:
Miliband proposes freeze = Bad May proposes freeze = good
PB Tories = PB Hypocrites
Several PB Tories have acted with hostility to the proposal.
Not Carlotta and Fitalass. But then again, CCHQ dictates...........
I haven't commented on the merits as the details are unknown - but I have described it as possibly good politics but iffy policy.
But then when have you been remotely interested in the truth?
No. Ed said he would 'freeze' energy prices - meaning in the event of a fall (which duly happened) consumers would be left paying higher prices.
A 'cap' is different.
Need to see details - it may be good politics but iffy policy.
Nope - the 2015 Labour manifesto said this:
"Labour will freeze energy bills until 2017, ensuring that bills can fall but not rise, and we will give the regulator the power to cut bills this winter. During the freeze, we will reform the energy market so that it delivers fairer prices and a better deal for working families."
Nice try SO - but no cigar:
Labour would freeze gas and electricity bills for every home and business in the UK for 20 months if it wins the 2015 election, Ed Miliband has said.
It's in the manifesto. In black and white: ""Labour will freeze energy bills until 2017, ensuring that bills can fall but not rise." It's precisely what May is proposing.
So the Tories improved Miliband's initially poor idea and made it into a better less worse one!
As I wrote the other day:
Miliband proposes freeze = Bad May proposes freeze = good
PB Tories = PB Hypocrites
Several PB Tories have acted with hostility to the proposal.
Not Carlotta and Fitalass.
Even PB Tories are not a homogenous mass.
I was a PB Tory for a couple of days!
A dark time, to be sure - everyone's drawn in at some point, but it is possible to escape, never fear.
My strategy is to feed them chum every now and then to avoid being eaten.
Turnout in 1992 was nearly 80% too. The slow down in result rate is staggering.
1992 was the last time local election votes didn't have to be separated out from the general election ballots. That will be the case this year as well, so it should be faster.
No. Ed said he would 'freeze' energy prices - meaning in the event of a fall (which duly happened) consumers would be left paying higher prices.
A 'cap' is different.
Need to see details - it may be good politics but iffy policy.
Nope - the 2015 Labour manifesto said this:
"Labour will freeze energy bills until 2017, ensuring that bills can fall but not rise, and we will give the regulator the power to cut bills this winter. During the freeze, we will reform the energy market so that it delivers fairer prices and a better deal for working families."
Nice try SO - but no cigar:
Labour would freeze gas and electricity bills for every home and business in the UK for 20 months if it wins the 2015 election, Ed Miliband has said.
It's in the manifesto. In black and white: ""Labour will freeze energy bills until 2017, ensuring that bills can fall but not rise." It's precisely what May is proposing.
So the Tories improved Miliband's initially poor idea and made it into a better less worse one!
As I wrote the other day:
Miliband proposes freeze = Bad May proposes freeze = good
PB Tories = PB Hypocrites
Several PB Tories have acted with hostility to the proposal.
Not Carlotta and Fitalass.
Even PB Tories are not a homogenous mass.
I was a PB Tory for a couple of days!
A dark time, to be sure - everyone's drawn in at some point, but it is possible to escape, never fear.
My strategy is to feed them chum every now and then to avoid being eaten.
It's tough in here though - the PB Tories hunt in packs!
No. Ed said he would 'freeze' energy prices - meaning in the event of a fall (which duly happened) consumers would be left paying higher prices.
A 'cap' is different.
Need to see details - it may be good politics but iffy policy.
Nope - the 2015 Labour manifesto said this:
"Labour will freeze energy bills until 2017, ensuring that bills can fall but not rise, and we will give the regulator the power to cut bills this winter. During the freeze, we will reform the energy market so that it delivers fairer prices and a better deal for working families."
Nice try SO - but no cigar:
Labour would freeze gas and electricity bills for every home and business in the UK for 20 months if it wins the 2015 election, Ed Miliband has said.
It's in the manifesto. In black and white: ""Labour will freeze energy bills until 2017, ensuring that bills can fall but not rise." It's precisely what May is proposing.
So the Tories improved Miliband's initially poor idea and made it into a better less worse one!
As I wrote the other day:
Miliband proposes freeze = Bad May proposes freeze = good
PB Tories = PB Hypocrites
Several PB Tories have acted with hostility to the proposal.
Not Carlotta and Fitalass. But then again, CCHQ dictates...........
The National Union of Students (NUS) is embroiled in a fresh anti-Semitism row after three candidates holding or running for positions on its executive committee were revealed to have made offensive comments.
In online posts seen by The Independent, one current member of the union’s National Executive Council shared a video mocking Jews as having big noses and being tight with money, while another publicly suggested Jewish people are tight-fisted and said he wanted to destroy Israel.
No. Ed said he would 'freeze' energy prices - meaning in the event of a fall (which duly happened) consumers would be left paying higher prices.
A 'cap' is different.
Need to see details - it may be good politics but iffy policy.
Nope - the 2015 Labour manifesto said this:
"Labour will freeze energy bills until 2017, ensuring that bills can fall but not rise, and we will give the regulator the power to cut bills this winter. During the freeze, we will reform the energy market so that it delivers fairer prices and a better deal for working families."
Nice try SO - but no cigar:
Labour would freeze gas and electricity bills for every home and business in the UK for 20 months if it wins the 2015 election, Ed Miliband has said.
It's in the manifesto. In black and white: ""Labour will freeze energy bills until 2017, ensuring that bills can fall but not rise." It's precisely what May is proposing.
So the Tories improved Miliband's initially poor idea and made it into a better less worse one!
As I wrote the other day:
Miliband proposes freeze = Bad May proposes freeze = good
PB Tories = PB Hypocrites
Several PB Tories have acted with hostility to the proposal.
Not Carlotta and Fitalass.
Even PB Tories are not a homogenous mass.
I was a PB Tory for a couple of days!
A dark time, to be sure - everyone's drawn in at some point, but it is possible to escape, never fear.
My strategy is to feed them chum every now and then to avoid being eaten.
It's tough in here though - the PB Tories hunt in packs!
I remember when PBTories were the ones being hunted ...
@surbiton You don't have to be a Tory to believe that Corbynism needs to die as a force in British politics. Corbyn is essentially the reason as to why this country effectively as no opposition right now.
I seem to remember somebody introduced a former Labour leader like that.
The place was Sheffield.
The date was (appropriately) April 1st 1992.
The Labour leader was a bloke called Neil Kinnock, who won the election and went on to be a great Prime Mini...ahhh.
Hubris among the Tories looks bad. Hubris for Labour makes me wonder whether my earlier sarcastic comment on hallucinogenic substances was actually correct.
I seem to remember somebody introduced a former Labour leader like that.
The place was Sheffield.
The date was (appropriately) April 1st 1992.
The Labour leader was a bloke called Neil Kinnock, who won the election and went on to be a great Prime Mini...ahhh.
Hubris among the Tories looks bad. Hubris for Labour makes me wonder whether my earlier sarcastic comment on hallucinogenic substances was actually correct.
How about, "Go back to your constituencies and prepare for government"
That accounts for a lot, but is also very depressing. The young of Wales must be leaving in droves.
Wouldn't you?
Its universities have been trashed.
Its economy is weak and erratic, heavily reliant on a government that is notoriously weak and corrupt. In any case, no public sector jobs are open to non-Welsh speakers who are in fact the majority of the population.
It is remote and outside Cardiff a cultural wilderness. Transport links are atrocious and the roads are very dangerous.
It is not cheap to live in. Good houses are snapped up as second homes and bad ones are - well, bad.
No. Ed said he would 'freeze' energy prices - meaning in the event of a fall (which duly happened) consumers would be left paying higher prices.
A 'cap' is different.
Need to see details - it may be good politics but iffy policy.
Nope - the 2015 Labour manifesto said this:
"Labour will freeze energy bills until 2017, ensuring that bills can fall but not rise, and we will give the regulator the power to cut bills this winter. During the freeze, we will reform the energy market so that it delivers fairer prices and a better deal for working families."
Nice try SO - but no cigar:
Labour would freeze gas and electricity bills for every home and business in the UK for 20 months if it wins the 2015 election, Ed Miliband has said.
It's in the manifesto. In black and white: ""Labour will freeze energy bills until 2017, ensuring that bills can fall but not rise." It's precisely what May is proposing.
So the Tories improved Miliband's initially poor idea and made it into a better less worse one!
As I wrote the other day:
Miliband proposes freeze = Bad May proposes freeze = good
PB Tories = PB Hypocrites
Several PB Tories have acted with hostility to the proposal.
Not Carlotta and Fitalass.
Even PB Tories are not a homogenous mass.
I was a PB Tory for a couple of days!
A subset of the PB Tories are the PB Burleys. Those are truly nasty folk!
But who remembers Burley these days? A relic of a past so distant, it was before Labour acquired exclusive rights to the anti-Semitism franchise.
I seem to remember somebody introduced a former Labour leader like that.
The place was Sheffield.
The date was (appropriately) April 1st 1992.
The Labour leader was a bloke called Neil Kinnock, who won the election and went on to be a great Prime Mini...ahhh.
Hubris among the Tories looks bad. Hubris for Labour makes me wonder whether my earlier sarcastic comment on hallucinogenic substances was actually correct.
How about, "Go back to your constituencies and prepare for government"
I seem to remember somebody introduced a former Labour leader like that.
The place was Sheffield.
The date was (appropriately) April 1st 1992.
The Labour leader was a bloke called Neil Kinnock, who won the election and went on to be a great Prime Mini...ahhh.
Hubris among the Tories looks bad. Hubris for Labour makes me wonder whether my earlier sarcastic comment on hallucinogenic substances was actually correct.
It's a very American thing for the hosts of political campaign stops to introduce the candidate by the title being sought. "The next Senator for the great state of [fill in the blank]", "the next President of the United States".
Very sure now, yes. It took me a long time to work it out though, in fairness. The change began for me, to my surprise, during the Coalition government when I started to realise that I liked the Lib Dem parts of that program better than the Conservative parts whilst still, to this day, retaining my life-long hostility to Labour. The EU referendum made it starkly clear which side I belong on.
Why was it they so comprehensively failed to articulate a convincing and passionate alternative to Corbyn to their own membership back in 2015, with all the other pitches seeming so utterly insipid and hollow?
Pathetic.
They were pitching at the country. not the membership.
You can argue that was dumb, as it cost them the leadership, but ti would have given them a chance now.
Unlike Corbyn.
The bigger mistake was not resigning the whip when he stayed after the vote of no confidence.
Their pitch to the country was just as crap: vacuous Blairism-plus, ContinuityBrown and I'maScouserwhowenttoCambridgeandhasneverkissedaTory.
Where are the serious thinkers in Labour?
Are there any?
The big mistake(s) Labour have made is to take almost all their voters outside the core cities for granted, ceased to make themselves relevant in an era where There is No Money Left, maintained a total tin ear for the concept of nationhood, and relied almost exclusively on the cuts the Tories have made to do all the hard work for them.
Corbyn could fall under a bus tomorrow, and none of that would go away.
A week or so back I was in Durham
My theory is that the important battles that faced those great men have largely been won. The country no longer has vast areas that could be from "the road to Wigan Pier". The great injustices have largely (though not wholly) gone, and what's more, Labour won many of the battles.
But nowadays we're talking about 'relative' poverty. We're talking about the state of the NHS, not the availability of universal healthcare. People have statutory holidays, and there is a minimum wage.
Now Labour's won the big battles, they have to move on to smaller items. And the public gives a heartfelt "meh!"
A very fair point, Mr. Jessop. Perhaps then Labour, like UKIP, is a party whose job is done. They both have nothing more relevant to say and should go into history together. Perhaps that is the message of this GE, an explanation, if you will, of what is going on.
It is the reason that private sector unions have declined, so I agree that JJ has a point. The Labour battle is won. It is the failure to formulate Macron style optomistic Social Democracy that will do in Jezza.
Which begs the question why has trade unionism clung on so well in the public sector? Is it that public sector employers are so awful?
No. Ed said he would 'freeze' energy prices - meaning in the event of a fall (which duly happened) consumers would be left paying higher prices.
A 'cap' is different.
Need to see details - it may be good politics but iffy policy.
Nope - the 2015 Labour manifesto said this:
"Labour will freeze energy bills until 2017, ensuring that bills can fall but not rise, and we will give the regulator the power to cut bills this winter. During the freeze, we will reform the energy market so that it delivers fairer prices and a better deal for working families."
Nice try SO - but no cigar:
Labour would freeze gas and electricity bills for every home and business in the UK for 20 months if it wins the 2015 election, Ed Miliband has said.
It's in the manifesto. In black and white: ""Labour will freeze energy bills until 2017, ensuring that bills can fall but not rise." It's precisely what May is proposing.
So the Tories improved Miliband's initially poor idea and made it into a better less worse one!
As I wrote the other day:
Miliband proposes freeze = Bad May proposes freeze = good
PB Tories = PB Hypocrites
Several PB Tories have acted with hostility to the proposal.
Not Carlotta and Fitalass. But then again, CCHQ dictates...........
That accounts for a lot, but is also very depressing. The young of Wales must be leaving in droves.
Wouldn't you?
Its universities have been trashed.
Its economy is weak and erratic, heavily reliant on a government that is notoriously weak and corrupt. In any case, no public sector jobs are open to non-Welsh speakers who are in fact the majority of the population.
It is remote and outside Cardiff a cultural wilderness. Transport links are atrocious and the roads are very dangerous.
It is not cheap to live in. Good houses are snapped up as second homes and bad ones are - well, bad.
Why do you think I live in Cannock?
Do Plaid stand a chance in Llanelli? Nia Griffith wasn't very impressive on DP today (partly because she is in an impossible position tbf) and I see Plaid consistently run her second in the seat. Scope for anti-Labour tactical voting?
No. Ed said he would 'freeze' energy prices - meaning in the event of a fall (which duly happened) consumers would be left paying higher prices.
A 'cap' is different.
Need to see details - it may be good politics but iffy policy.
Nope - the 2015 Labour manifesto said this:
"Labour will freeze energy bills until 2017, ensuring that bills can fall but not rise, and we will give the regulator the power to cut bills this winter. During the freeze, we will reform the energy market so that it delivers fairer prices and a better deal for working families."
Nice try SO - but no cigar:
Labour would freeze gas and electricity bills for every home and business in the UK for 20 months if it wins the 2015 election, Ed Miliband has said.
It's in the manifesto. In black and white: ""Labour will freeze energy bills until 2017, ensuring that bills can fall but not rise." It's precisely what May is proposing.
So the Tories improved Miliband's initially poor idea and made it into a better less worse one!
As I wrote the other day:
Miliband proposes freeze = Bad May proposes freeze = good
PB Tories = PB Hypocrites
Several PB Tories have acted with hostility to the proposal.
Not Carlotta and Fitalass. But then again, CCHQ dictates...........
Please, all you experts on French customs/language - why is Emmanuel Macron the only gentleman whose name is not preceded by M (= Monsieur, presumably)?
The National Union of Students (NUS) is embroiled in a fresh anti-Semitism row after three candidates holding or running for positions on its executive committee were revealed to have made offensive comments.
In online posts seen by The Independent, one current member of the union’s National Executive Council shared a video mocking Jews as having big noses and being tight with money, while another publicly suggested Jewish people are tight-fisted and said he wanted to destroy Israel.
The National Union of Students (NUS) is embroiled in a fresh anti-Semitism row after three candidates holding or running for positions on its executive committee were revealed to have made offensive comments.
In online posts seen by The Independent, one current member of the union’s National Executive Council shared a video mocking Jews as having big noses and being tight with money, while another publicly suggested Jewish people are tight-fisted and said he wanted to destroy Israel.
The NUS has always been nothing more than a training platform for wannabe Labour pols. Sounds like they'd fit right in with Corbyn's party.
Be serious. Could anyone with a functioning brain vote for Nuttall?
Talking of which Corbyn is in danger of exchanging tragic hero status for laughing stock. Not wearing a tie or bowing and scraping at the sight of the flag for a moment looked like a man of principle.
So why the sudden recognition of Saints days? What's wrong with a Mandela day or a Fidel day or a Pol pot day? He's done a faustus and sold his soul to the devil.
That accounts for a lot, but is also very depressing. The young of Wales must be leaving in droves.
Wouldn't you?
Its universities have been trashed.
Its economy is weak and erratic, heavily reliant on a government that is notoriously weak and corrupt. In any case, no public sector jobs are open to non-Welsh speakers who are in fact the majority of the population.
It is remote and outside Cardiff a cultural wilderness. Transport links are atrocious and the roads are very dangerous.
It is not cheap to live in. Good houses are snapped up as second homes and bad ones are - well, bad.
Why do you think I live in Cannock?
Do Plaid stand a chance in Llanelli? Nia Griffith wasn't very impressive on DP today (partly because she is in an impossible position tbf) and I see Plaid consistently run her second in the seat. Scope for anti-Labour tactical voting?
Depends a bit on who the Plaid candidate is. If Helen Mary Jones can be persuaded to stand I would make them favourites. If not, still advantage Labour.
That said, I would expect Llanelli to go green before Ynys Mon goes blue.
This is a key part to understanding Wales's political geography in particular. Older populations are booming and taking a greater share of the electorate. They turnout in high numbers (70-odd per cent) and are moving away from Labour. Younger populations are declining or flatlining and taking a smaller share of the electorate. These younger voters don't vote (40%-ish) The net effect is an electorate which is older and older. These changes have happened quickly (post-2005). At the same time the older voters have moved away from Labour (35% in 2005 down to 21% today). So the fastest growing [older] groups, occupying higher proportions of the electorate, are having a disproportionate impact upon elections in Wales. We have seen this in Brexit of course and also now with their recent move to the Conservatives. In short, how these older voters move determines a large part of how Welsh elections move. And this will only get worse. Older populations are projected to continue to grow as a proportion well in the 2020s and perhaps beyond in Wales. All parties will have to make peace with that.
That accounts for a lot, but is also very depressing. The young of Wales must be leaving in droves.
Wouldn't you?
Its universities have been trashed.
Its economy is weak and erratic, heavily reliant on a government that is notoriously weak and corrupt. In any case, no public sector jobs are open to non-Welsh speakers who are in fact the majority of the population.
It is remote and outside Cardiff a cultural wilderness. Transport links are atrocious and the roads are very dangerous.
It is not cheap to live in. Good houses are snapped up as second homes and bad ones are - well, bad.
Why do you think I live in Cannock?
This message brought to you by the Welsh Investment Board ;-)
As well as a lot of investment in Cardiff, hasn't Swansea has had a fair bit of redevelopment?
I might have to go and have a lie down, as I agree with Nick....Lab vote seems to be stuck at 25%. Looks like that might be the bedrock for Labour support, still impressive as we always used to talk about Labour and Tory having a firewall of 30%.
Labour's firewall could not be 30%. In 2010, it got 29+% and in 1983, it received 28+ %. In both cases, Scotland was big with Labour.
So the equivalent figure would be about 26%.
There is no firewall (rock bottom) percentage. SLAB have proven that, why should England or Wales be different?
True. Tectonic plates are moving.
Labour represented the "working class". Their numbers have fallen dramatically and some do not even want to described as such. That is fair enough.
However, in that coalition, there was a large scale opinion which did not go well with Labour's professed values regarding internationalism, anti-racism etc. These two strands co-existed for many years because many at the bottom of the income scale needed Labour even though they did not agree with Labour's intellectual viewpoint. Many , of course, will stay with Labour but many have gone.
We must not forget, Labour also gained many [ though not as many ] progressive voters.
The shift from Labour to UKIP but not back to Labour is part of this tectonic movement. In the next few years another development will occur. Many "wet" Tories [ Remainers ? ] will move over to the Lib Dems and many left minded Liberal Democrats will move to a more modern Labour Party without its historical baggage, the kind of slogans Corbynistas spout out.
The question is: Is there room for two/ three parties [ Labour mark II, Lid Dems, Green ] ? Because we do not have proportional representation, we could end up like the Americans in having just two parties. Even the WWC defection to Trump could be permanent. There, the democratic coalition is still the majority as Hillary's 3m extra votes testify.
Its interesting that neither the LibDems or PC are making progress in Wales.
In fact the LibDems must be concerned that they're not making progress nationally.
They would have been looking for big gains in the local elections to give them momentum.
Being shacked up with Labour in the assembly isn't the best of positions right now, to be fair. The influx of pensioners and outflow of educated young people does the LibDems no favours given the demographics of their support. And those whose fathers knew Lloyd George are dying off.
. Older populations are projected to continue to grow as a proportion well in the 2020s and perhaps beyond in Wales. All parties will have to make peace with that.
Wonder what the demographic forecasts for Scotland are?
That accounts for a lot, but is also very depressing. The young of Wales must be leaving in droves.
Wouldn't you?
Its universities have been trashed.
Its economy is weak and erratic, heavily reliant on a government that is notoriously weak and corrupt. In any case, no public sector jobs are open to non-Welsh speakers who are in fact the majority of the population.
It is remote and outside Cardiff a cultural wilderness. Transport links are atrocious and the roads are very dangerous.
It is not cheap to live in. Good houses are snapped up as second homes and bad ones are - well, bad.
Why do you think I live in Cannock?
"In any case, no public sector jobs are open to non-Welsh speakers who are in fact the majority of the population."
That is just utter claptrap! I have family in Wales who speak no Welsh and yet work in the public sector!
Be serious. Could anyone with a functioning brain vote for Nuttall?
Talking of which Corbyn is in danger of exchanging tragic hero status for laughing stock. Not wearing a tie or bowing and scraping at the sight of the flag for a moment looked like a man of principle.
So why the sudden recognition of Saints days? What's wrong with a Mandela day or a Fidel day or a Pol pot day? He's done a faustus and sold his soul to the devil.
You obviously missed the lady from Swindon's reaction to the suggestion of Corbyn being PM.
No. Ed said he would 'freeze' energy prices - meaning in the event of a fall (which duly happened) consumers would be left paying higher prices.
A 'cap' is different.
Need to see details - it may be good politics but iffy policy.
Nope - the 2015 Labour manifesto said this:
"Labour will freeze energy bills until 2017, ensuring that bills can fall but not rise, and we will give the regulator the power to cut bills this winter. During the freeze, we will reform the energy market so that it delivers fairer prices and a better deal for working families."
Nice try SO - but no cigar:
Labour would freeze gas and electricity bills for every home and business in the UK for 20 months if it wins the 2015 election, Ed Miliband has said.
It's in the manifesto. In black and white: ""Labour will freeze energy bills until 2017, ensuring that bills can fall but not rise." It's precisely what May is proposing.
So the Tories improved Miliband's initially poor idea and made it into a better less worse one!
As I wrote the other day:
Miliband proposes freeze = Bad May proposes freeze = good
PB Tories = PB Hypocrites
The problem is not with all the PB Tories it is with certain ones of them who appear to have no minds of their own and slavishly agree with the policy of the day. Carlotta claims to be in her sixties and Oxbridge educated. She should know better!!
My theory is that the important battles that faced those great men have largely been won. The country no longer has vast areas that could be from "the road to Wigan Pier". The great injustices have largely (though not wholly) gone, and what's more, Labour won many of the battles.
But nowadays we're talking about 'relative' poverty. We're talking about the state of the NHS, not the availability of universal healthcare. People have statutory holidays, and there is a minimum wage.
Now Labour's won the big battles, they have to move on to smaller items. And the public gives a heartfelt "meh!"
If that were so the party would not rebound, ever. Even the most optimistic Tory would not say that I think.
I think that's going a little far. It's just that the foundations on which the Labour party were built have largely disappeared, and it has failed to evolve.
I think Blair recognised this, and this was part (though not all) of his thinking with 'the third way'. A move away from the party's roots towards electibility. An evolution that was sadly reversible.
With the battles won, Labour are left with redundant trade unionism and socialism. Hence Corbyn, and the difficulty in shifting him. Fifty years ago those two factors were supported by real injustices. Nowadays, whilst there are injustices about, they're generally more nebulous.
Or issues that are more difficult to tackle. FGM, for instance.
This poll is a glimpse of a future which could await Wales. If the Tories do win on theses numbers, the future of our nation is at risk.
No one should forget that Tory ideology is all about privatising and cutting public services. That means longer waiting lists, poorer education and increased child poverty. We know what they are about because we remember the Tories’ record in Wales.
With an increased mandate the Tories will privatise, cut and power-grab from our assembly so that Wales’s ability to defend its own people will be reduced.
I have to agree with other posters, this is tectonic plate shifting moment stuff, there is some major re alignment going on, it is not a Maygasm,yes Corbyn is crap, but the change is much more than that, beginning to think that it is becoming increasingly unpopular to associate yourself with the Labour brand. Start of the Shy Labour vote?
FWIW, from door-knocking so far, trying hard not to have my Optimism Goggles on, the polls seem pretty accurate - we've been focussing just on 2015 Lab voters, and even with them it's been pretty dire. I'd expect the poll results to be borne out in a few weeks, broadly speaking. But I don't get the sense this is a permanent shift - people view May as the right person to lead Britain "into war" with other EU countries, but, a bit surprisingly to me, they don't really seem to be buying this stuff about May wanting "a country that works for everyone". Whenever we say on the doorsteps things like how she doesn't give a damn about public services or ordinary people, people readily agree with us (and a few people yesterday mentioned they didn't believe she'd ever deliver the energy price thing), but they just think stuff like that is small-beer compared to getting a good Brexit deal.
All of that will be small comfort to Labour in the short term, obviously, because unless something dramatic happens, the feeling of "she's the right person to negotiate Brexit" will still be there in a few weeks, but I honestly don't think her appeal (or the Tories' appeal) is going to extend into "peacetime" once Brexit is finally done and dusted.
Please, all you experts on French customs/language - why is Emmanuel Macron the only gentleman whose name is not preceded by M (= Monsieur, presumably)?
That accounts for a lot, but is also very depressing. The young of Wales must be leaving in droves.
Wouldn't you?
Its universities have been trashed.
Its economy is weak and erratic, heavily reliant on a government that is notoriously weak and corrupt. In any case, no public sector jobs are open to non-Welsh speakers who are in fact the majority of the population.
It is remote and outside Cardiff a cultural wilderness. Transport links are atrocious and the roads are very dangerous.
It is not cheap to live in. Good houses are snapped up as second homes and bad ones are - well, bad.
Why do you think I live in Cannock?
This message brought to you by the Welsh Investment Board ;-)
As well as a lot of investment in Cardiff, hasn't Swansea has had a fair bit of redevelopment?
Yes, it's now bad rather than atrocious.
I am Welsh. My mother was from the Valleys and my father from Oswestry. I speak Welsh. I love Wales with a passion and a fervour. Even when in England, I commuted to work in Wales for as long as I could. But it is increasingly a place where people go to die rather than live. Jobs are needed. Infrastructure is needed for the jobs to come. The universities need strengthening so our brightest and best don't go to England and stay there (like I did for my final degree) rather than being brutally attacked because they dared to tell Andrews he was a lazy little tosser with the intellect of a very stupid donkey who got there because he sucked up to the right dodgy morons.
It's incredibly sad. The first stage in the recovery has to be a change to government. Labour have been in power far, far too long. This poll would give me some hope if I believed the Sennedd Tories were any better.
I might have to go and have a lie down, as I agree with Nick....Lab vote seems to be stuck at 25%. Looks like that might be the bedrock for Labour support, still impressive as we always used to talk about Labour and Tory having a firewall of 30%.
Labour's firewall could not be 30%. In 2010, it got 29+% and in 1983, it received 28+ %. In both cases, Scotland was big with Labour.
So the equivalent figure would be about 26%.
There is no firewall (rock bottom) percentage. SLAB have proven that, why should England or Wales be different?
True. Tectonic plates are moving.
Labour represented the "working class". Their numbers have fallen dramatically and some do not even want to described as such. That is fair enough.
However, in that coalition, there was a large scale opinion which did not go well with Labour's professed values regarding internationalism, anti-racism etc. These two strands co-existed for many years because many at the bottom of the income scale needed Labour even though they did not agree with Labour's intellectual viewpoint. Many , of course, will stay with Labour but many have gone.
We must not forget, Labour also gained many [ though not as many ] progressive voters.
The shift from Labour to UKIP but not back to Labour is part of this tectonic movement. In the next few years another development will occur. Many "wet" Tories [ Remainers ? ] will move over to the Lib Dems and many left minded Liberal Democrats will move to a more modern Labour Party without its historical baggage, the kind of slogans Corbynistas spout out.
The question is: Is there room for two/ three parties [ Labour mark II, Lid Dems, Green ] ? Because we do not have proportional representation, we could end up like the Americans in having just two parties. Even the WWC defection to Trump could be permanent. There, the democratic coalition is still the majority as Hillary's 3m extra votes testify.
Interesting times ahead.
There's no rule that any given number of parties can thrive under FPTnP. But only parties that have a geographically concentrated support base can do so. Labour's concentration in the mining and industrial heartlands made its replacing the Liberals so much easier. Any party with an even (-ish) spread of support cannot flourish until they get well into the 40%s share of the vote.
So in your scenario it would require a massive shift in London's voting habits such that the three parties appealed, respectively, to the Home Counties/Shires, London and the universities, and the poorer urban North. Or something similar.
Always found that sort of line very strange. When the people back the establishment (which still includes Labour, Jeremy, but let's pretend it doesn't), the line that the people are against the establishment continues.
Its interesting that neither the LibDems or PC are making progress in Wales.
In fact the LibDems must be concerned that they're not making progress nationally.
They would have been looking for big gains in the local elections to give them momentum.
It may take a little while for the implications of Labour's predicament to sink in... I think we will see some significant volatility in the polls, but the Lib Dem air war is already better than Labour. So it's still too soon to tell, as I expect M. Macron could tell you.
Comments
Even as a Lib Dem (albeit one who used to vote Conservative at all previous general elections until the EU referendum showed me that I'm more "yellow" than "blue") I don't find it at all difficult to understand Theresa May's popularity. I'll readily concede that I find her to be the most likeable of the party leaders by some distance. I don't even feel particularly uncomfortable with the idea of a Conservative landslide or super-landslide in the present circumstances... though obviously I would very much prefer very substantial Lib Dem progress. The main thing is that Corbyn's Labour needs to be politically killed off for the greater good of UK politics.
But, there must be a place for a centre left party.
In fairness, I don't know enough about her to guess an answer.
In further fairness, Corbyn was dealt a pretty poor hand as well, and has played it with skill and sophistication - that is, the skill and sophistication of a drunken village idiot who moonlights as an officer of the Student Loan Company.
She's still on stage - the latest snippet:
https://twitter.com/JamieRoss7/status/856566787856629763
I can see that that might be the only way to do it, but there would be lawyers all over it to start with. I also get the impression that the Labour Party is even less keen on what it sees as betrayal than the Conservatives. Corbyn would hang on to the party name, funds and database and both sides would be slaughtered in the polls while May looked on slightly bemused.
It would be just like the Tory party leadership contest all over again.
That is old news though!
So the equivalent figure would be about 26%.
Seems like we truly might as well just have two parties for each country of the UK.
Seems like we are now downgrading that to 25%.
But apart from that......
Council election leaflet manages a new Con record of mentioning Conservatives more than the legal minimum, however Independence + Referendum beats out Conservative by 8 to 7 overall.
For referemce the SNP council leaflet mentioned independence and referendum zero times but it is apparently the SNP who are obsessed.
2015: 17 results by 2am, 72 by 3am.
Other observations (with the usual caveats about small sub-sample sizes):
1. Only about a third of 2015 Ukip voters still backed the party, with almost all of the defectors intending to back the Tories (the fact that Ukip isn't lower than 6% appears to be down to small dribs and drabs crossing over from other parties, but not on a significant scale.)
2. The headline Conservative lead of 10% masks a heavy (and predictable) geographical skew. Broken down by region, Labour is ahead by 10% in Cardiff and South Central (basically, the Valleys,) but behind the Tories by anything between 12% and 22% in the other regions. Those sub-samples are small, *but* taken together they indicate a substantial Conservative advantage everywhere in the country outside of that South Central zone. This suggests that the mooted wipeout everywhere except Cardiff, Swansea, Llanelli and the Valleys is very much a possibility.
https://twitter.com/SarahLowesLD/status/856220472110972930
But leaving that aside, I'd need a great deal of persuasion that this policy was a good one. It doesn't seem quite as stupid as Ed's initial offering, but that view could easily change.
The energy market is borken in many ways. This does not seem to be addressing the correct issues.
You either commit to it fully, and say "let's rally behind Jez and kick the Tories out! SNP votes can't do that! Only we can form a Government!" or you do what some Labour MPs are doing and say, "we won't win, but vote for us anyway to allow us to regroup in the Autumn under a new leader and form an opposition with more than about 150 seats".
I don't see the latter approach being effective as people don't distinguish. When the Tories were routed in 1997, or the Lib Dems in 2015, it didn't matter a damn if the candidate said "I was a rebel so not really responsible". Realistically, the choice is hanging together or hanging separately.
That said, an MP who has opposed Corbyn vocally may just feel incapable of spouting the former line with any conviction. The latter approach has the advantage of honesty even if it's doomed.
https://twitter.com/JamieRoss7/status/856567705473822720
Start of the Shy Labour vote?
A subset of the PB Tories are the PB Burleys. Those are truly nasty folk!
But then when have you been remotely interested in the truth?
My strategy is to feed them chum every now and then to avoid being eaten.
https://twitter.com/JamieRoss7/status/856570744729370624
The National Union of Students (NUS) is embroiled in a fresh anti-Semitism row after three candidates holding or running for positions on its executive committee were revealed to have made offensive comments.
In online posts seen by The Independent, one current member of the union’s National Executive Council shared a video mocking Jews as having big noses and being tight with money, while another publicly suggested Jewish people are tight-fisted and said he wanted to destroy Israel.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/education/education-news/nus-anti-semitism-national-union-students-offensive-tweets-jews-racism-adolf-hitler-israel-executive-a7696566.html
The place was Sheffield.
The date was (appropriately) April 1st 1992.
The Labour leader was a bloke called Neil Kinnock, who won the election and went on to be a great Prime Mini...ahhh.
Hubris among the Tories looks bad. Hubris for Labour makes me wonder whether my earlier sarcastic comment on hallucinogenic substances was actually correct.
Results that early will lead to a foreshortening of the fun this side of the Atlantic. Done and dusted by 10pm? Boring!
Its universities have been trashed.
Its economy is weak and erratic, heavily reliant on a government that is notoriously weak and corrupt. In any case, no public sector jobs are open to non-Welsh speakers who are in fact the majority of the population.
It is remote and outside Cardiff a cultural wilderness. Transport links are atrocious and the roads are very dangerous.
It is not cheap to live in. Good houses are snapped up as second homes and bad ones are - well, bad.
Why do you think I live in Cannock?
In fact the LibDems must be concerned that they're not making progress nationally.
They would have been looking for big gains in the local elections to give them momentum.
https://twitter.com/JamieRoss7/status/856572305169895424
The NUS has always been nothing more than a training platform for wannabe Labour pols. Sounds like they'd fit right in with Corbyn's party.
Talking of which Corbyn is in danger of exchanging tragic hero status for laughing stock. Not wearing a tie or bowing and scraping at the sight of the flag for a moment looked like a man of principle.
So why the sudden recognition of Saints days? What's wrong with a Mandela day or a Fidel day or a Pol pot day? He's done a faustus and sold his soul to the devil.
That said, I would expect Llanelli to go green before Ynys Mon goes blue.
This is a key part to understanding Wales's political geography in particular. Older populations are booming and taking a greater share of the electorate. They turnout in high numbers (70-odd per cent) and are moving away from Labour. Younger populations are declining or flatlining and taking a smaller share of the electorate. These younger voters don't vote (40%-ish) The net effect is an electorate which is older and older. These changes have happened quickly (post-2005). At the same time the older voters have moved away from Labour (35% in 2005 down to 21% today). So the fastest growing [older] groups, occupying higher proportions of the electorate, are having a disproportionate impact upon elections in Wales. We have seen this in Brexit of course and also now with their recent move to the Conservatives. In short, how these older voters move determines a large part of how Welsh elections move. And this will only get worse. Older populations are projected to continue to grow as a proportion well in the 2020s and perhaps beyond in Wales. All parties will have to make peace with that.
As well as a lot of investment in Cardiff, hasn't Swansea has had a fair bit of redevelopment?
Labour represented the "working class". Their numbers have fallen dramatically and some do not even want to described as such. That is fair enough.
However, in that coalition, there was a large scale opinion which did not go well with Labour's professed values regarding internationalism, anti-racism etc. These two strands co-existed for many years because many at the bottom of the income scale needed Labour even though they did not agree with Labour's intellectual viewpoint. Many , of course, will stay with Labour but many have gone.
We must not forget, Labour also gained many [ though not as many ] progressive voters.
The shift from Labour to UKIP but not back to Labour is part of this tectonic movement. In the next few years another development will occur. Many "wet" Tories [ Remainers ? ] will move over to the Lib Dems and many left minded Liberal Democrats will move to a more modern Labour Party without its historical baggage, the kind of slogans Corbynistas spout out.
The question is: Is there room for two/ three parties [ Labour mark II, Lid Dems, Green ] ? Because we do not have proportional representation, we could end up like the Americans in having just two parties. Even the WWC defection to Trump could be permanent. There, the democratic coalition is still the majority as Hillary's 3m extra votes testify.
Interesting times ahead.
That is just utter claptrap! I have family in Wales who speak no Welsh and yet work in the public sector!
I'm sorry to make such a shallow, sexist point but a big part of May's electoral bounce is down to her being a woman.
I don't care what anyone says. It matters hugely.
This poll is a glimpse of a future which could await Wales. If the Tories do win on theses numbers, the future of our nation is at risk.
No one should forget that Tory ideology is all about privatising and cutting public services. That means longer waiting lists, poorer education and increased child poverty. We know what they are about because we remember the Tories’ record in Wales.
With an increased mandate the Tories will privatise, cut and power-grab from our assembly so that Wales’s ability to defend its own people will be reduced.
All of that will be small comfort to Labour in the short term, obviously, because unless something dramatic happens, the feeling of "she's the right person to negotiate Brexit" will still be there in a few weeks, but I honestly don't think her appeal (or the Tories' appeal) is going to extend into "peacetime" once Brexit is finally done and dusted.
I am Welsh. My mother was from the Valleys and my father from Oswestry. I speak Welsh. I love Wales with a passion and a fervour. Even when in England, I commuted to work in Wales for as long as I could. But it is increasingly a place where people go to die rather than live. Jobs are needed. Infrastructure is needed for the jobs to come. The universities need strengthening so our brightest and best don't go to England and stay there (like I did for my final degree) rather than being brutally attacked because they dared to tell Andrews he was a lazy little tosser with the intellect of a very stupid donkey who got there because he sucked up to the right dodgy morons.
It's incredibly sad. The first stage in the recovery has to be a change to government. Labour have been in power far, far too long. This poll would give me some hope if I believed the Sennedd Tories were any better.
So in your scenario it would require a massive shift in London's voting habits such that the three parties appealed, respectively, to the Home Counties/Shires, London and the universities, and the poorer urban North. Or something similar.
Yes. Exactly. That is precisely what they should do.