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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The persistence of kippers – looking at where post-referendum UKIP is now
They are routinely derided by others. The press loves to print stories of their wackier examples. They are marginalised. Their public figures are held up to ridicule. Yet they make up roughly one in ten of the adult population. I write, of course, of UKIP supporters.
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It is interesting that both UKIP and the Lib Dems haven't really moved much in the polls.
You can cancel the appointment with the psychiatrist.
Of course, the picture of the polls is completely contradicted by the local council byelections week after week, so goodness knows what's really going on with them.
I just feel sorry for the likes of Mark Senior who seem to believe that gains at the local level mean something at the national level. (yes, I can see that they might in the longer term, through building up an infrastructure, but not for 2020)
Second, the Scotland’s Future White Paper. In November 2013, the previous First Minister and the present First Minister launched the Scotland’s Future White Paper, which was described as a ‘guide to an independent Scotland’. In that White Paper, the Scottish Government referred to the referendum as a ‘once in a generation opportunity’ (pages i and 556). Crucially, it also explicitly raised the prospect of a referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU resulting in a vote to leave despite a majority of voters in Scotland voting to remain (pages 60, 217 and 460). In other words, although it explicitly highlighted the possibility of a majority of people in the UK as a whole voting to leave the EU while a majority of people in Scotland voted to remain, it still referred to the referendum as a ‘once in a generation’ opportunity, without any caveat or conditions with regard to future events.
https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/scotlandinunion/pages/559/attachments/original/1488541426/SIU_Letter_Feb_2017v4a.pdf?1488541426
The May local elections will give a better view of their position locally. Nationally, they have a Leader who after months either hasn't cut through - or has and people just don't like him. They also have no distinctive policies other than to Remain in the EU. And that USP will have to become for us to Rejoin, once Article 50 is triggered. Rejoin will be a very niche position with the voters.
And those halcyon days ....
As long as we do actually leave the EU I'd imagine UKIP's support will drop off to that of a small protest vote by 2020, their job having being done - but if the government screws up the process there's a good chance of UKIP's vote share rising.
It's role is now essentially corrosive.
Cameron attracted what Maggie might have called wets, socially liberal supporters who were ok with fairly high levels of taxation to maintain key public services, notably the NHS. People like me in fact. May seems to me to be trying a lot less hard to keep these voters and this gives the Lib Dems some hope of recovering from the devastation that Cameron visited upon them in 2015 but the quid pro quo is that if she can deliver an acceptable version of Brexit there is still another 10% sitting to her right. That is a game changer.
As Alastair has pointed out that 10% has proven surprisingly loyal but what if UKIP cease to exist as a national party standing in pretty much every constituency at the next election? That strikes me as possible, bordering on likely. Some of their supporters, probably half, will become DNVs as there will be no party left they find acceptable. But another 5% on the Tory vote puts them in an incredibly strong position. What is looking (at the moment) as a fairly strong swing against Labour could become a tidal wave.
UKIP is a party in decline, their national poll share is regularly at odds with their performance at local level and their leadership troubles have still not abated. However, signing them off just yet on the death certificate is a little premature imho, while they have parliamentary representation at MP and MEP level, short money and donations to keep them afloat and the UK remains within the EU.
This picture is set to look very different come GE2020 as most, if not all the above has gone.
I've not seen any effective organised UKIP campaigns post BREXIT (Stoke being their best performance and it hardly brought the house down) so without membership and money they are a conundrum for the future all depends on whether they can ever survive without Nigel F
Reason I ask is thats its probably a good indicator as to how successful an independent Scotland would be.
"A public, tearful, apology, repentance and retraction, merely for dancing. Welcome to the United Kingdom in 2017. We may have just witnessed our first online religious fundamentalist inquisition...
Not a single global, nor national, feminist movement adopted this as a cause. Not a single mainstream, left wing nor liberal, media outlet reported on this.
"And I am wondering whether feminists are too busy picking first world fights while neglecting the minorities within minority communities.
http://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/maajid-nawaz/feminists-too-busy-picking-first-world-fights/?utm_source=Direct
Another small northern country, Ireland, only 'pays its way' by being a tax haven.
It is a bit surprising UKIP hasn't declined more. But, Article 50 hasn't been triggered yet and we won't leave the EU for years. So, maybe those events will see the purples wither away (or maybe a new Farage-Banks vehicle will draw away their support).
Miss Plato, that sounds rancid and backward. Lack of media coverage is disturbing.
Speaking of which, I was intrigued by the news report of the Dutch situation. Not riots, but demonstrations. No videos of chanting crowds or their violence, but some of the Dutch police restoring order.
There will always be a need for a NOTA party hoovering up 10-15% of the vote.
UKIP as a single issue pressure group was spectacularly successful but has now settled back into safe NOTA political party territory.
All that will be done is Sturgeon will, for the 100th time, lay out what conditions May needs to meet for Sturgeon not to call IndyRef2.
EXCLUSIVE: Plea for parents to teach maths amid staff shortage at John Swinney’s local school
https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/politics/scottish-politics/385408/exclusive-plea-for-parents-to-teach-maths-amid-staff-shortage-at-john-swinneys-local-school/
It's almost as if, for all the bluster, the SNP don't actually want to let the Scottish people decide their future governance.
The NHS employs about 1.4 million people.
Foreign citizens employed by the NHS are by definition ALWAYS considering whether to leave.
So its more FAKE NEWS.
Maths teachers in Perthshire?
No, that would be the day job......
Not a useful pointer for UKIP performance if the next GE is 2020.
It's a mystery to me why centrist Tories would be willing to put their faith entirely in the foam at the mouth brigade to negotiate a deal.
https://twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/841202022531624961
Where I think Alastair is mistaken is in linking this too closely to Brexit. I don't think the average UKIP voter is following it that closely - they half-expect to be betrayed over immigration even if we have a hard Brexit. But if you want to stick it to the Establishment in a general unfocused way, UKIP is clearly a good option. The Tories are not, which is why the core UKIP vote won't come to them even if the party collapses - they'll just abstain until another protest vehicle comes along.
Meanwhile, Labour's leftward swing isn't picking up the fed-up vote. That's partly because we're seen as soft on immigration and that is something which fed-up voters do dislike. And partly that Corbyn doesn't do populist rants - the calm lecturer style appeals to people like me, but positively puts off people who just want to stuff the traditional political class. (I suspect that if Labour was led by, say, Galloway or Scargill in their prime it would be making inroads into the fed-up vote, while horrifying people like me.)
Fortunately for them there's no shortage of people willing to spread worthless tweets around.
I really, really hope that once A50 is invoked and the negotiations to leave start, the more excitable remainers in the media will start to calm down a bit and get behind the British negotiations. I very much doubt that's what will happen though, instead they seem determined to show the rest of the EU just how much we're willing to bend over.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/13/dutch-voters-netherlands-election-wilders
Great turn of phrase, might have to steal that one!
The problems they have are with Romanian Big Issue sellers on benefits, of so many Polish plumbers that British plumbers can't earn a living, and of arranged marriages from Pakistan with people who don't speak English and prefer to turn certain parts of England into a mini-Lahore.
In other words, they want control over who is allowed into their country, they want the immigration of productive people that benefits the UK and don't want immigration of those who will be a drain on society or who want to change it rather than integrate.
Assuming a 6% churn, which is not unreasonable, we'd expect c84k people to leave the NHS every year.
I've thought about leaving every role I've ever been in. It's part of the human condition, surely?
I'd post the graph showing how EU nursing staff replaced Filipinos during the naughties, but we're well past the stage of valuing data when it comes to either the NHS or Brexit.
Ukip are a party of cynicism; they expect to be betrayed. Only when Brexit is totally sealed will they begin to fade away,
It doesn't help when they see and hear people openly resenting a democratic result. The suspicion arises that these people consider themselves above democracy. Unfortunately, they do.
On another issue, the retiring judge's statements about women being careful if they intend to become legless is interesting for the reaction it caused. While emphasising the fault is always with the wrong-doer, she merely advised caution if you intend to make yourself vulnerable.
The same caution the police advise when leaving your house unlocked, or Governments advise when visiting dangerous areas abroad.
You're all seen notices telling you to be careful when pickpockets are active. If you go there with a unzipped purse dangling from a pocket, get robbed, and then complain bitterly about the notices - that's not the reaction of a sane person.
What's odd is the judge feels the necessity to make the comments. Yet on the media, I saw only condemnation for the supposed insult. I may be living in a non-metropolitan bubble, but most acquaintances of mine (of both sexes) think that, on this, the offense bus-riders are embarrassing themselves.
Are we really two populations now. One writes on twitter, one votes.
Good morning, Mr. M.
It is worth noting that UKIP is founded upon a general mistrust of the three established parties and contains many supporters who left the Tories in disgust and anger. Even with Brexit proceeding I think it will take a long time for those feelings of betrayal to dissipate even if events prove them to be unfounded. For a fair few the wrench to leave Tory or Labour was so big that it is not something they will easily reverse.
Brexit will help of course but I expect UKIP to linger on for a very long time even after the EU issue is resolved.
Simply repeating "Trust Theresa" ad infinitum and ad nauseam isn't going to cut it if and when it appears not all the expectations that she has been happy to accommodate since last July are going to be fulfilled.
For months we've had this meme of "all things to all people" from the Prime Minister but A50 will mean choices will have to be made and some people are going to be disappointed and it remains to be seen how well May copes with serious opposition (unlike Corbyn). Not well if her ludicrous over-reaction to Heseltine is any indication.
The strange thing is, May is an interventionist Conservative who believes in the power of the State to solve problems. To me, she's virtually indistinguishable from Blair and indeed Heseltine in wanting to use the State as a force for change and progress. Yet she's being hailed in some quarters as a "traditional Conservative" yet Hammond, whose Budget she presumably supported, is condemned for "not being Conservative".
Blair is back - the SDP won - the "social market economy" marches on.
VVD-ALDE: 16%
PVV-ENF: 14%
D66-ALDE: 12%
SP-LEFT: 12%
GL-GREEN: 12%
CDA-EPP: 11%
It really is anyone's.
They had a Home Secretary with the powers to do so. Her name is Theresa May.
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/841213628221149186