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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The persistence of kippers – looking at where post-referendum

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  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,885
    HYUFD said:

    No. The idea May could have introduced no new immigration controls after the Leave vote is absurd

    We had a leave vote and she's not done anything to reduce immigration since, despite having plenty of scope to do so. What's absurd is your rhetoric.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    What else was anyone expecting? Brexit was inevitably going to lead to a second independence referendum. The UK has had its day. Just as England has drifted inexorably away from the EU, so Scotland is drifting inexorably away from England and Wales. Northern Ireland is too. It's all very sad, but there is no sustainable British demos anymore. Last June's vote was the final nail in its coffin.

    Good. Hanging on to relationships that have essentially expired is never a good idea for either party. If the people of Scotland or NI or Wales want to make their own way in the world good for them. I see no reason to grieve or to worry.
    On the same basis, there may be areas that wish to separate from Scotland - the Border areas as well as the Shetlands. Those living there should certainly have their view taken into account in the same way that the Ulster counties were permitted to remain within the UK in the early 1920s.
  • I voted to leave - dislike what the EU has morphed into and though the Norway option would give us enough freedom to flourish. Besides which as a non-Eurozone member we would have been out with fiscal union anyway.

    But hard Brexit to the WTO was always an absurd idea as the leaked Treasury Paper (entitled 'WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIE' apparently) demonstrates. And what special deal are the EU going to want to give us - not that 2 years gives us remotely enough time to even shape the preliminary discussions of a deal.

    May is a political imbecile of the first order. She should have gone to the country already and secured her 120 majority. Instead she'll have to go to the country just as her hard brexit sky is falling in.

    So this is where sane people step in. People voted to leave the European Union - the question on the paper. Not the other things people think they voted for, but this government appear desperate to steamroller through the suicide option hoping they will outlive UKIP if they do. Why should Scotland - or NI or Wales - put up with that?

    The Scots had a referendum. A massive change in the landscape means another one is a valid question to ask. The EU feared little sub-states like Scotland or Catalonia being formed, but thats far less of a concern than the rise of fascism threatening the whole shebang. So they'll offer Nicola the moon on a stick. The referendum will be on Scotland's terms not Westminster's. "We won't allow it then" says May and what does she plan to do about it? Scotland goes ahead anyway with a deal agreed with Europe, declares UDI and then what - war? An absurd piece of posturing from Maybe.

    And it won't end with Scotland. The reality of hard Brexit is a physical hard border in Ireland (and war) or a physical hard border between GB and NI (and war). So why would NI put up with that?

    This is why I have decided to pull up sticks and cease being much of a Labour activist. The left / right bullshit row is an utter irrelevance as I do not expect there to be a UK left to hold a 2020 election in.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,719

    Lennon said:

    If there is another referendum in Scotland, who's going to lead the No campaign? The current crop of unionist politicians is not exactly stellar, is it?

    What price a non-politico - JK Rowling?
    Actually she would be a fantastic choice for multiple reasons, if she could be persuaded to do it. I can't for the life of me think of a reason why she would want to put herself through that hell.
    she has not been great NO supporter in recent times, maybe she is not as daft as she portrayed in the past
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,376
    Lennon said:

    If there is another referendum in Scotland, who's going to lead the No campaign? The current crop of unionist politicians is not exactly stellar, is it?

    What price a non-politico - JK Rowling?
    It should be huge. She'd have to make common cause with (to her hated) Brexit, plus her statement the last time round is something of a hostage to fortune.

    'I’ve heard it said that ‘we’ve got to leave, because they’ll punish us if we don’t’, but my guess is that if we vote to stay, we will be in the heady position of the spouse who looked like walking out, but decided to give things one last go. All the major political parties are currently wooing us with offers of extra powers, keen to keep Scotland happy so that it does not hold an independence referendum every ten years and cause uncertainty and turmoil all over again. I doubt whether we will ever have been more popular, or in a better position to dictate terms, than if we vote to stay.'
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    justin124 said:

    What else was anyone expecting? Brexit was inevitably going to lead to a second independence referendum. The UK has had its day. Just as England has drifted inexorably away from the EU, so Scotland is drifting inexorably away from England and Wales. Northern Ireland is too. It's all very sad, but there is no sustainable British demos anymore. Last June's vote was the final nail in its coffin.

    Good. Hanging on to relationships that have essentially expired is never a good idea for either party. If the people of Scotland or NI or Wales want to make their own way in the world good for them. I see no reason to grieve or to worry.
    On the same basis, there may be areas that wish to separate from Scotland - the Border areas as well as the Shetlands. Those living there should certainly have their view taken into account in the same way that the Ulster counties were permitted to remain within the UK in the early 1920s.
    I don't agree. Then London should be allowed to stay in the EU.

    Scotland is different to the Shetlands, for example, because it is a separate country, maybe not in UN terms. After all, it is the United Kingdom
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I'm sure I'm not the only one who just felt a goose walk over his grave.
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275
    edited March 2017

    Your judgement is lacking. Having established that the Theresa May is not in control, the EU, and the UK, would have no interest in going over the cliff. There will be a humiliating climbdown.

    Unfortunately, there is no mechanism for a climbdown, humiliating or otherwise.
    This presumes A50 cannot be reversed. But no one knows for sure about that as the treaty does not address the issue. It would be useful to get a definitive ruling so each will then know where he stands.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    Considering how far behind Sindy1 and Brexit were before their campaigns, and where they finished, I don't think an average 45% is actually a bad starting point. The referendum won't be a rerun of the 1st one for a number of reasons:

    Economics: undoubtedly worse for indy supporters this time, probably the biggest advantage in favour of the the unionists after the currency issue

    currency: still undecided - my thoughts are that the SNP need to be able to deliver on their own terms everything they promise in order to win this, which means ruling out the British pound currency union from last time, and proposing a scottish pound.

    EU: switched from a big unionist plus in 2014 to a huge sindy one now - smart thing to do would be to guarantee EEA membership at least, and say that discussions would be aiming for full EU membership. This neutralises the whole Spain veto issue, who can't veto membership of the EEA and can be worked on longer term to come round to EU accession.

    I think the advantage is with sindy this time around, but certainly no sure thing. If I was running their campaign I would go for a Scottish Pound, and (to an extent) own the fact that there will economic difficulties around it. Leavers successfully managed to do this with Brexit, getting the public to buy in to the idea that there will be necessary short term economic wobbles before we once again rule the waves. Promise membership of the single market with a view to retaining full EU membership after discussions with member states. Above all hammer home the fact that there is no status quo option anymore, it's either brexit UK or indy scotland, you have to choose between these two binary new options.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,690
    edited March 2017
    surbiton said:

    justin124 said:

    What else was anyone expecting? Brexit was inevitably going to lead to a second independence referendum. The UK has had its day. Just as England has drifted inexorably away from the EU, so Scotland is drifting inexorably away from England and Wales. Northern Ireland is too. It's all very sad, but there is no sustainable British demos anymore. Last June's vote was the final nail in its coffin.

    Good. Hanging on to relationships that have essentially expired is never a good idea for either party. If the people of Scotland or NI or Wales want to make their own way in the world good for them. I see no reason to grieve or to worry.
    On the same basis, there may be areas that wish to separate from Scotland - the Border areas as well as the Shetlands. Those living there should certainly have their view taken into account in the same way that the Ulster counties were permitted to remain within the UK in the early 1920s.
    I don't agree. Then London should be allowed to stay in the EU.

    Scotland is different to the Shetlands, for example, because it is a separate country, maybe not in UN terms. After all, it is the United Kingdom
    There is already a growing campaign in Shetland to rejoin the UK in the event of Scottish independence, as far as they are concerned the UK is their country
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    I'm not so convinced that Scotland is fundamentally that different from England on the EU [or indeed "liberal" attitudes etc.] But it got divided along Yes/No lines first, and Yes voters went for Remain precisely because of the relevance of that question to the Independence one.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,376

    I'm sure I'm not the only one who just felt a goose walk over his grave.

    Saucy!
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,990

    If there is another referendum in Scotland, who's going to lead the No campaign? The current crop of unionist politicians is not exactly stellar, is it?

    You've just broken the heart of every Scottish Tory surger there by not acknowledging Ruth Davidson's awesomeness.
    There's only so much kickboxing one girl can do.
    One major consequence of the commons wipe-out of SLAB (and indeed the other parties just hanging on in there) has been a culling of Scottish Big Beasts from political life.

    And the collapse of SLAB in the polls, means putting forward a SLAB figure as head unionist cheerleader now carries similar disadvantages (if not quite the same level of toxicity to the decisive floating voters) to putting forward a Tory figure.
    Gordon Brown, your moment has come.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Maybe the Remainers who can't handle the EU result can apply for Scottish citizenship in the event of Sindy?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,885

    If there is another referendum in Scotland, who's going to lead the No campaign? The current crop of unionist politicians is not exactly stellar, is it?

    You've just broken the heart of every Scottish Tory surger there by not acknowledging Ruth Davidson's awesomeness.
    There's only so much kickboxing one girl can do.
    One major consequence of the commons wipe-out of SLAB (and indeed the other parties just hanging on in there) has been a culling of Scottish Big Beasts from political life.

    And the collapse of SLAB in the polls, means putting forward a SLAB figure as head unionist cheerleader now carries similar disadvantages (if not quite the same level of toxicity to the decisive floating voters) to putting forward a Tory figure.
    Gordon Brown, your moment has come.
    To make a comeback as Prime Minister of an independent Scotland?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    malcolmg said:

    If there is another referendum in Scotland, who's going to lead the No campaign? The current crop of unionist politicians is not exactly stellar, is it?

    You've just broken the heart of every Scottish Tory surger there by not acknowledging Ruth Davidson's awesomeness.
    There's only so much kickboxing one girl can do.
    One major consequence of the commons wipe-out of SLAB (and indeed the other parties just hanging on in there) has been a culling of Scottish Big Beasts from political life.

    And the collapse of SLAB in the polls, means putting forward a SLAB figure as head unionist cheerleader now carries similar disadvantages (if not quite the same level of toxicity to the decisive floating voters) to putting forward a Tory figure.
    Yes a Tory leading will be a big help toYes for sure
    SLAB should and probably will come out in favour of independence. That is the only way SLAB could begin to claw back their lost voters. By siding with Tories is a death wish as Corbyn is doing now.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    PS. Given that a Scottish referendum is being justified on the pretext that Scots would be voting Yes to give up their newly acquired or about to be acquired independence from the EU, why is it still being referred to by all and sundry as a referendum on "Scottish independence"?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,719
    Lennon said:

    If there is another referendum in Scotland, who's going to lead the No campaign? The current crop of unionist politicians is not exactly stellar, is it?

    What price a non-politico - JK Rowling?
    she would need to be crazy to take that on
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,376
    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    justin124 said:

    What else was anyone expecting? Brexit was inevitably going to lead to a second independence referendum. The UK has had its day. Just as England has drifted inexorably away from the EU, so Scotland is drifting inexorably away from England and Wales. Northern Ireland is too. It's all very sad, but there is no sustainable British demos anymore. Last June's vote was the final nail in its coffin.

    Good. Hanging on to relationships that have essentially expired is never a good idea for either party. If the people of Scotland or NI or Wales want to make their own way in the world good for them. I see no reason to grieve or to worry.
    On the same basis, there may be areas that wish to separate from Scotland - the Border areas as well as the Shetlands. Those living there should certainly have their view taken into account in the same way that the Ulster counties were permitted to remain within the UK in the early 1920s.
    I don't agree. Then London should be allowed to stay in the EU.

    Scotland is different to the Shetlands, for example, because it is a separate country, maybe not in UN terms. After all, it is the United Kingdom
    There is already a growing campaign in Shetland to rejoin the UK in the event of Scottish independence, as far as they are concerned the UK is their country
    Not sure becoming an enclave of the rUK with a 10 mile territorial limit is really in their interests, but of course that's up to them.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,264
    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    justin124 said:

    What else was anyone expecting? Brexit was inevitably going to lead to a second independence referendum. The UK has had its day. Just as England has drifted inexorably away from the EU, so Scotland is drifting inexorably away from England and Wales. Northern Ireland is too. It's all very sad, but there is no sustainable British demos anymore. Last June's vote was the final nail in its coffin.

    Good. Hanging on to relationships that have essentially expired is never a good idea for either party. If the people of Scotland or NI or Wales want to make their own way in the world good for them. I see no reason to grieve or to worry.
    On the same basis, there may be areas that wish to separate from Scotland - the Border areas as well as the Shetlands. Those living there should certainly have their view taken into account in the same way that the Ulster counties were permitted to remain within the UK in the early 1920s.
    I don't agree. Then London should be allowed to stay in the EU.

    Scotland is different to the Shetlands, for example, because it is a separate country, maybe not in UN terms. After all, it is the United Kingdom
    There is already a growing campaign in Shetland to rejoin the UK in the event of Scottish independence, as far as they are concerned the UK is their country
    They might get a better offer from Norway....
  • glwglw Posts: 10,010

    I'm not so convinced that Scotland is fundamentally that different from England on the EU [or indeed "liberal" attitudes etc.]

    The aren't different, social attitudes surveys show a margin of error difference between the UK versus Scotland, or England versus Scotland.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Get Farage to campaign for Yes in Scotland and all the undecideds like @Theuniondivvie will vote to stay!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,690

    I voted to leave - dislike what the EU has morphed into and though the Norway option would give us enough freedom to flourish. Besides which as a non-Eurozone member we would have been out with fiscal union anyway.

    But hard Brexit to the WTO was always an absurd idea as the leaked Treasury Paper (entitled 'WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIE' apparently) demonstrates. And what special deal are the EU going to want to give us - not that 2 years gives us remotely enough time to even shape the preliminary discussions of a deal.

    May is a political imbecile of the first order. She should have gone to the country already and secured her 120 majority. Instead she'll have to go to the country just as her hard brexit sky is falling in.

    So this is where sane people step in. People voted to leave the European Union - the question on the paper. Not the other things people think they voted for, but this government appear desperate to steamroller through the suicide option hoping they will outlive UKIP if they do. Why should Scotland - or NI or Wales - put up with that?

    The Scots had a referendum. A massive change in the landscape means another one is a valid question to ask. The EU feared little sub-states like Scotland or Catalonia being formed, but thats far less of a concern than the rise of fascism threatening the whole shebang. So they'll offer Nicola the moon on a stick. The referendum will be on Scotland's terms not Westminster's. "We won't allow it then" says May and what does she plan to do about it? Scotland goes ahead anyway with a deal agreed with Europe, declares UDI and then what - war? An absurd piece of posturing from Maybe.

    And it won't end with Scotland. The reality of hard Brexit is a physical hard border in Ireland (and war) or a physical hard border between GB and NI (and war). So why would NI put up with that?

    This is why I have decided to pull up sticks and cease being much of a Labour activist. The left / right bullshit row is an utter irrelevance as I do not expect there to be a UK left to hold a 2020 election in.

    Complete and utter rubbish. You voted Leave fully endorsing the Leave campaign's exploitation of the immigration issue and you cannot wash your hands of it now or indeed the fact you may have pushed Scotland towards independence. I voted Remain but recognise the Leave vote has to be honoured
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,294
    isam said:

    Maybe the Remainers who can't handle the EU result can apply for Scottish citizenship in the event of Sindy?

    :D
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,719

    GIN1138 said:

    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    glw said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I think there's a lot in what you say. I've always felt Scotland leaving the UK was inevitable since Labour brought in devolution.

    Devolution has had precisely the opposite effect that Labour thought it would.
    That was always going to be the outcome. It's like unpicking the fabric of a country thread by thread until eventually the entire thing just falls apart.
    Yaba daba doo GIN, we are off and running
    Your girl did good Malc. Enjoy :smiley:


    Turnip wine tonight!
    A vintage as well
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    isam said:

    Maybe the Remainers who can't handle the EU result can apply for Scottish citizenship in the event of Sindy?

    Actually, I am thinking about it. I thought I would have to buy a property to do so. I was in Scotland last Wednesday.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,690

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    By the time we get to an independence vote we will already have a Scottish deal in the bag. The EU are going to guarantee their EEA membership with at least fast track membership to the whole thing agreed. They'll be offered a better deal that the floor scrapings we're going to be proffered. And that'll be used as pressure on the rest of the UK.

    What can May threaten them with? Throwing them out of the CTA, currency and customs unions? A physical border? People will be laughing in her face.

    Bravo Nicola, bravo. A brilliant political gambit. Any Jeremy obsessives reading this - that's what leadership looks like.

    To be fair, Corbyn will be getting what he wants, too, if the UK breaks-up. But you are right, Sturgeon has played a blinder on this. What will May throw at the Scots to keep them on board? Being the Conservative and Unionist PM who lost the Union would be quite something on her CV.
    It was the English and Welsh voters who voted Leave who would have lost Scotland, not May who voted Remain. However as said last night May is Elizabeth 1st to Sturgeon's Mary Queen of Scots
    No - May could have neutralised the entire issue by saying she would seek to retain single market membership in the EEA. For various (understandable but incorrect) reasons she chose not to, so she has brought this on herself.
    No. The idea May could have introduced no new immigration controls after the Leave vote is absurd, half her party would have switched to UKIP. If Scotland votes Yes there is only one group to blame, the Leave campaign in EU ref and those in England and Wales who voted Leave, they may still see leaving the EU as more important than preserving the Union but the blame still falls on them
    LOL

    you dont think the SNP has anything to do with it then ?
    The Leave vote put petrol on the SNP fire
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Considering how far behind Sindy1 and Brexit were before their campaigns, and where they finished, I don't think an average 45% is actually a bad starting point. The referendum won't be a rerun of the 1st one for a number of reasons:

    Economics: undoubtedly worse for indy supporters this time, probably the biggest advantage in favour of the the unionists after the currency issue

    currency: still undecided - my thoughts are that the SNP need to be able to deliver on their own terms everything they promise in order to win this, which means ruling out the British pound currency union from last time, and proposing a scottish pound.

    EU: switched from a big unionist plus in 2014 to a huge sindy one now - smart thing to do would be to guarantee EEA membership at least, and say that discussions would be aiming for full EU membership. This neutralises the whole Spain veto issue, who can't veto membership of the EEA and can be worked on longer term to come round to EU accession.

    I think the advantage is with sindy this time around, but certainly no sure thing. If I was running their campaign I would go for a Scottish Pound, and (to an extent) own the fact that there will economic difficulties around it. Leavers successfully managed to do this with Brexit, getting the public to buy in to the idea that there will be necessary short term economic wobbles before we once again rule the waves. Promise membership of the single market with a view to retaining full EU membership after discussions with member states. Above all hammer home the fact that there is no status quo option anymore, it's either brexit UK or indy scotland, you have to choose between these two binary new options.

    The last poll was 48/52.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,990
    PeterC said:

    Your judgement is lacking. Having established that the Theresa May is not in control, the EU, and the UK, would have no interest in going over the cliff. There will be a humiliating climbdown.

    Unfortunately, there is no mechanism for a climbdown, humiliating or otherwise.
    This presumes A50 cannot be reversed. But no one knows for sure about that as the treaty does not address the issue. It would be useful to get a definitive ruling so each will then know where he stands.
    Without being explicit, the text of the treaty is about as clear as it could be, as indeed is the logic of the clause. How is it possible to state that membership will end at the commencement of the agreement / the two-year limit / the extended limit, if one side could unilaterally terminate the withdrawal discussions and return to the status quo ante?
  • HYUFD said:

    Complete and utter rubbish. You voted Leave fully endorsing the Leave campaign's exploitation of the immigration issue and you cannot wash your hands of it now or indeed the fact you may have pushed Scotland towards independence. I voted Remain but recognise the Leave vote has to be honoured

    I didn't endorse either the immigration argument or the NHS funding argument. And with stopping immigration pretty well accepted as functionally impossible even with hard brexit it was a ludicrous argument to begin with.

    People may have voted to leave thinking foreigners would go home. Or that it meant hard brexit. Or that we we "take back control". Thats up to them. Not why I voted to leave.

    Are you basically arguing that someone voting for Party A as the least worst option is endorsing them? Thats complete and utter rubbish, to coin a phrase

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    surbiton said:

    isam said:

    Maybe the Remainers who can't handle the EU result can apply for Scottish citizenship in the event of Sindy?

    Actually, I am thinking about it. I thought I would have to buy a property to do so. I was in Scotland last Wednesday.
    Silicon Scots the new Plastic Paddy?
  • OUTOUT Posts: 569
    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    glw said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I think there's a lot in what you say. I've always felt Scotland leaving the UK was inevitable since Labour brought in devolution.

    Devolution has had precisely the opposite effect that Labour thought it would.
    That was always going to be the outcome. It's like unpicking the fabric of a country thread by thread until eventually the entire thing just falls apart.
    Yaba daba doo GIN, we are off and running
    Your girl did good Malc. Enjoy :smiley:


    Turnip wine tonight!
    A vintage as well
    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    glw said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I think there's a lot in what you say. I've always felt Scotland leaving the UK was inevitable since Labour brought in devolution.

    Devolution has had precisely the opposite effect that Labour thought it would.
    That was always going to be the outcome. It's like unpicking the fabric of a country thread by thread until eventually the entire thing just falls apart.
    Yaba daba doo GIN, we are off and running
    Your girl did good Malc. Enjoy :smiley:


    Turnip wine tonight!
    A vintage as well
    A 1314?
  • MontyMonty Posts: 346
    edited March 2017
    Personally, I think the Scots would be mad to stay chained to UKIP Island now that England has voted for Brexit. Go, and go quickly would be my advice. And I think the EU would welcome them with open arms. It would look great to have them join while the UK leaves. I used to be for the union, but Brexit has changed my mind. This isn't the country I thought it was. Go Scotland, and don't look back!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,885
    isam said:

    Maybe the Remainers who can't handle the EU result can apply for Scottish citizenship in the event of Sindy?

    The EU result is the death-knell for hard-core Euroscepticism in Britain.

    After what's going to happen no-one will ever again say that leaving the EU would be a good idea.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    surbiton said:

    malcolmg said:

    If there is another referendum in Scotland, who's going to lead the No campaign? The current crop of unionist politicians is not exactly stellar, is it?

    You've just broken the heart of every Scottish Tory surger there by not acknowledging Ruth Davidson's awesomeness.
    There's only so much kickboxing one girl can do.
    One major consequence of the commons wipe-out of SLAB (and indeed the other parties just hanging on in there) has been a culling of Scottish Big Beasts from political life.

    And the collapse of SLAB in the polls, means putting forward a SLAB figure as head unionist cheerleader now carries similar disadvantages (if not quite the same level of toxicity to the decisive floating voters) to putting forward a Tory figure.
    Yes a Tory leading will be a big help toYes for sure
    SLAB should and probably will come out in favour of independence. That is the only way SLAB could begin to claw back their lost voters. By siding with Tories is a death wish as Corbyn is doing now.
    It's rather amusing that Corbyn and his lot, having spent their life decrying Blairites as Red Tories, and Lib Dems as enablers, are now aligned lockstep with Tories on the two biggest issues in a generation, Brexit and Sindy.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,944

    PeterC said:

    Your judgement is lacking. Having established that the Theresa May is not in control, the EU, and the UK, would have no interest in going over the cliff. There will be a humiliating climbdown.

    Unfortunately, there is no mechanism for a climbdown, humiliating or otherwise.
    This presumes A50 cannot be reversed. But no one knows for sure about that as the treaty does not address the issue. It would be useful to get a definitive ruling so each will then know where he stands.
    Without being explicit, the text of the treaty is about as clear as it could be, as indeed is the logic of the clause. How is it possible to state that membership will end at the commencement of the agreement / the two-year limit / the extended limit, if one side could unilaterally terminate the withdrawal discussions and return to the status quo ante?
    The EU is frequently able to distort the length of an official day, doing so for a year or two is just a matter of scale.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,448

    isam said:

    Maybe the Remainers who can't handle the EU result can apply for Scottish citizenship in the event of Sindy?

    The EU result is the death-knell for hard-core Euroscepticism in Britain.

    After what's going to happen no-one will ever again say that leaving the EU would be a good idea.
    "I hope..."
  • glwglw Posts: 10,010

    isam said:

    Maybe the Remainers who can't handle the EU result can apply for Scottish citizenship in the event of Sindy?

    The EU result is the death-knell for hard-core Euroscepticism in Britain.

    After what's going to happen no-one will ever again say that leaving the EU would be a good idea.
    I've never read a post of yours about the EU that basically couldn't be boiled down to "this is bad for Brexit". You are the most one-sided poster on PB, and considering there are a handful of die-hard Nats that is saying something.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    Maybe the Remainers who can't handle the EU result can apply for Scottish citizenship in the event of Sindy?

    The EU result is the death-knell for hard-core Euroscepticism in Britain.

    After what's going to happen no-one will ever again say that leaving the EU would be a good idea.
    Yeah right. All it will mean, if Scotland gains independence, is a bigger proportion of Britain will be Leavers
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,376
    isam said:

    Get Farage to campaign for Yes in Scotland and all the undecideds like @Theuniondivvie will vote to stay!

    Just like last time, both campaigns wouldn't touch him with yours.
  • By Sam Coates of The Times

    1. So I'm a bit baffled by Nicola Sturgeon's referendum timing. Can someone explain what's happening because as far as I can see:

    2. Sturgeon wants #indyref2 next year - which is mid Brexit talks. She will promise something she can't deliver: continuity EU for Scotland.

    3. This means that EU membership uncertain. Currency uncertain. Relationship with rUK uncertain. Means huge risks on her side

    4. Scexit takes 2 years - meanining it takes place after Brexit. And during that intervening gap would Scotland be in or out of EU?

    5. Spain wd veto Scottish "continuity" membership in a heartbeat. So this doesn't look like it will fly without radically changed circs

    6. So these are hardly ideal conditions for a referendum - centrepiece is continuity which voters will know they can't offer. So why do it

    7. Is it - therefore - a ruse? And she knows No10 wont accept? And it suits No10 and FM to kick can down road while pretending otherwise?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Does anybody seriously think that if the UK had voted to Remain, Sturgeon and the SNP wouldn't still have been agitating for a second referendum?

    It's all they've got.

    precisely
    Indeed. - The SNP protested at being dragged into the EU by England, they’re protesting now at England dragging them out, it really makes no odds, a second, third and even fourth Indyref was always going to be on the cards.
    You mean the Tories dragged us into the EEC - without a vote - and are now determined to take the "suicide option" of getting us out of the EU which again no one [ the suicide option ] voted for. To clarify, no one voted for a hard brexit. Certainly not, Hannan and Johnson.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    @bet365 prices:

    Year of Next Scottish Independence Referendum

    2017 33/1
    2018 8/1
    2019 9/4
    2020 7/2
    2021 5/1
    Not before 2022 2/1


    Result of Next Scottish Independence Referendum

    Yes to Independence 10/11
    No to Independence 10/11


    https://www.bet365.com/#/AC/B5/C20522322/D1/E32570335/F2/
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited March 2017
    Oh my word - reject your white privilege

    Neotaster
    This is a real thing that people share seriously. https://t.co/EqbfsEpVHX

    #10 Recognise you're still a racist, no matter what
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,147
    surbiton said:

    Does anybody seriously think that if the UK had voted to Remain, Sturgeon and the SNP wouldn't still have been agitating for a second referendum?

    It's all they've got.

    precisely
    Indeed. - The SNP protested at being dragged into the EU by England, they’re protesting now at England dragging them out, it really makes no odds, a second, third and even fourth Indyref was always going to be on the cards.
    You mean the Tories dragged us into the EEC - without a vote - and are now determined to take the "suicide option" of getting us out of the EU which again no one [ the suicide option ] voted for. To clarify, no one voted for a hard brexit. Certainly not, Hannan and Johnson.
    I seem to recall there being a vote on leaving the EU sometime last year.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257
    I hope I'm wrong, but I think Scotland will go this time.

    I think the political differences between Scotland and the rest of the UK are irreconcilable.

    There is a way in which a new settlement could be forged, but it would be radical and I doubt the capability and capacity of our politicians to do what's necessary to achieve it.
  • isam said:

    Get Farage to campaign for Yes in Scotland and all the undecideds like @Theuniondivvie will vote to stay!

    Just like last time, both campaigns wouldn't touch him with yours.
    Perhaps Theresa May can use her influence and get Donald Trump to campaign for Scottish Independence.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    Get Farage to campaign for Yes in Scotland and all the undecideds like @Theuniondivvie will vote to stay!

    Just like last time, both campaigns wouldn't touch him with yours.
    Haha! Have you decided how you'll vote yet or waiting to see which politician says what?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    By Sam Coates of The Times

    1. So I'm a bit baffled by Nicola Sturgeon's referendum timing. Can someone explain what's happening because as far as I can see:

    2. Sturgeon wants #indyref2 next year - which is mid Brexit talks. She will promise something she can't deliver: continuity EU for Scotland.

    3. This means that EU membership uncertain. Currency uncertain. Relationship with rUK uncertain. Means huge risks on her side

    4. Scexit takes 2 years - meanining it takes place after Brexit. And during that intervening gap would Scotland be in or out of EU?

    5. Spain wd veto Scottish "continuity" membership in a heartbeat. So this doesn't look like it will fly without radically changed circs

    6. So these are hardly ideal conditions for a referendum - centrepiece is continuity which voters will know they can't offer. So why do it

    7. Is it - therefore - a ruse? And she knows No10 wont accept? And it suits No10 and FM to kick can down road while pretending otherwise?

    Regardless, of all these, Scotland will get EEA status pretty easily. I am not sure what Spain can do about that.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,990

    PeterC said:

    Your judgement is lacking. Having established that the Theresa May is not in control, the EU, and the UK, would have no interest in going over the cliff. There will be a humiliating climbdown.

    Unfortunately, there is no mechanism for a climbdown, humiliating or otherwise.
    This presumes A50 cannot be reversed. But no one knows for sure about that as the treaty does not address the issue. It would be useful to get a definitive ruling so each will then know where he stands.
    Without being explicit, the text of the treaty is about as clear as it could be, as indeed is the logic of the clause. How is it possible to state that membership will end at the commencement of the agreement / the two-year limit / the extended limit, if one side could unilaterally terminate the withdrawal discussions and return to the status quo ante?
    The EU is frequently able to distort the length of an official day, doing so for a year or two is just a matter of scale.
    I suppose the treaty doesn't say that it's an *Earth* year. Neptune's lasts 165 earth years.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,734

    isam said:

    Maybe the Remainers who can't handle the EU result can apply for Scottish citizenship in the event of Sindy?

    The EU result is the death-knell for hard-core Euroscepticism in Britain.

    blockquote>

    'Tis but a scratch. A flesh wound.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,376

    isam said:

    Get Farage to campaign for Yes in Scotland and all the undecideds like @Theuniondivvie will vote to stay!

    Just like last time, both campaigns wouldn't touch him with yours.
    Perhaps Theresa May can use her influence and get Donald Trump to campaign for Scottish Independence.
    Trump touching someone with his would be the worry then.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,885
    Yes campaign website launched:

    https://www.ref.scot/
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257

    HYUFD said:

    Complete and utter rubbish. You voted Leave fully endorsing the Leave campaign's exploitation of the immigration issue and you cannot wash your hands of it now or indeed the fact you may have pushed Scotland towards independence. I voted Remain but recognise the Leave vote has to be honoured

    I didn't endorse either the immigration argument or the NHS funding argument. And with stopping immigration pretty well accepted as functionally impossible even with hard brexit it was a ludicrous argument to begin with.

    People may have voted to leave thinking foreigners would go home. Or that it meant hard brexit. Or that we we "take back control". Thats up to them. Not why I voted to leave.

    Are you basically arguing that someone voting for Party A as the least worst option is endorsing them? Thats complete and utter rubbish, to coin a phrase

    There's a bloke sitting behind me in the office (one of your Islington party members) who's just broadcast very loudly that all Leavers are far-right British nationalists and fascists.

    I ignore him, but referendums seem to do some very funny things to people.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,990

    isam said:

    Maybe the Remainers who can't handle the EU result can apply for Scottish citizenship in the event of Sindy?

    The EU result is the death-knell for hard-core Euroscepticism in Britain.

    After what's going to happen no-one will ever again say that leaving the EU would be a good idea.
    All is for the best in this, the best of all possible worlds.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Monty said:

    Personally, I think the Scots would be mad to stay chained to UKIP Island now that England has voted for Brexit. Go, and go quickly would be my advice. And I think the EU would welcome them with open arms. It would look great to have them join while the UK leaves. I used to be for the union, but Brexit has changed my mind. This isn't the country I thought it was. Go Scotland, and don't look back!

    Some parts of the UK are quite a nasty place to live, frankly. However, we cannot give up. It is our country too.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,376
    edited March 2017
    O/T

    For those of who work in regulatory compliance in the Banking and Financial Services Industry, the new defence is going to be called 'Doing a Hogg'

    MPs will this week discuss whether the Bank of England’s new deputy governor should remain in her post.

    Charlotte Hogg is under growing pressure to consider her position after failing to disclose a potential conflict of interest. Omitting to state that her brother is a senior manager at Barclays is a breach of the Bank’s code of conduct, which Ms Hogg helped to draft.

    The Treasury select committee, which uncovered the error, is expected to debate whether Ms Hogg, 46, is still suitable for the role in the coming days. Under her remit as deputy governor, Ms Hogg supervises markets and banking and serves as chief operating officer.


    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mps-to-mull-hoggs-fate-as-doubts-rise-k6bdvkjl0
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,690

    I hope I'm wrong, but I think Scotland will go this time.

    I think the political differences between Scotland and the rest of the UK are irreconcilable.

    There is a way in which a new settlement could be forged, but it would be radical and I doubt the capability and capacity of our politicians to do what's necessary to achieve it.

    Yet still most polls show NO ahead and particularly amongst the old who turnout most, May will also likely promise yet more powers too, however it will certainly be much tighter than last time
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,990

    If there is another referendum in Scotland, who's going to lead the No campaign? The current crop of unionist politicians is not exactly stellar, is it?

    You've just broken the heart of every Scottish Tory surger there by not acknowledging Ruth Davidson's awesomeness.
    There's only so much kickboxing one girl can do.
    One major consequence of the commons wipe-out of SLAB (and indeed the other parties just hanging on in there) has been a culling of Scottish Big Beasts from political life.

    And the collapse of SLAB in the polls, means putting forward a SLAB figure as head unionist cheerleader now carries similar disadvantages (if not quite the same level of toxicity to the decisive floating voters) to putting forward a Tory figure.
    Gordon Brown, your moment has come.
    To make a comeback as Prime Minister of an independent Scotland?
    No, Scottish Labour's shot.

    There is, however, a vacancy for a left-of-centre leader of Scotland Says No.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257
    Can someone answer me if Scottish indyref polling has been "fixed"?

    Working from memory here, but I seem to remember polling being at 48:52 in the final week of the indyref, leading to the 45:55 result.

    If the polling is showing 48:52 now, does that imply it could be 45:55 again or has it been fixed and tweaked such that it really is 48:52 (or basically TCTC given MoE)
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400

    I think the political differences between Scotland and the rest of the UK are irreconcilable.

    No they weren't. Scotland is more Tory than it has been in years. A few years of calm would have allowed the SNPs record at Holyrood to be properly examined and the independence case to be undermined.

    What is now happening is a direct result of the Brexit vote.

  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    surbiton said:

    justin124 said:

    What else was anyone expecting? Brexit was inevitably going to lead to a second independence referendum. The UK has had its day. Just as England has drifted inexorably away from the EU, so Scotland is drifting inexorably away from England and Wales. Northern Ireland is too. It's all very sad, but there is no sustainable British demos anymore. Last June's vote was the final nail in its coffin.

    Good. Hanging on to relationships that have essentially expired is never a good idea for either party. If the people of Scotland or NI or Wales want to make their own way in the world good for them. I see no reason to grieve or to worry.
    On the same basis, there may be areas that wish to separate from Scotland - the Border areas as well as the Shetlands. Those living there should certainly have their view taken into account in the same way that the Ulster counties were permitted to remain within the UK in the early 1920s.
    I don't agree. Then London should be allowed to stay in the EU.

    Scotland is different to the Shetlands, for example, because it is a separate country, maybe not in UN terms. After all, it is the United Kingdom
    I disagree. The principle of self determination should apply to areas within Scotland - and , if necessary, I would argue the same re Wales & England should the issue ever arise. The Ulster Counties were - rightly - not forced into a single Irish state against their will - and the same should apply to regions within Scotland which might prefer to remain members of rUK. I have always thought of Great Britain as my coutry - England , Scotland & Wales being regions really.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,690

    isam said:

    Maybe the Remainers who can't handle the EU result can apply for Scottish citizenship in the event of Sindy?

    The EU result is the death-knell for hard-core Euroscepticism in Britain.

    After what's going to happen no-one will ever again say that leaving the EU would be a good idea.
    If we do not leave the EU prepare for PM Farage
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    PlatoSaid said:

    Oh my word - reject your white privilege

    Neotaster
    This is a real thing that people share seriously. https://t.co/EqbfsEpVHX

    #10 Recognise you're still a racist, no matter what

    Yes, very happy with that.

    As I fully embrace #10 I don't give a runny crap about the other 9.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,376
    edited March 2017

    Can someone answer me if Scottish indyref polling has been "fixed"?

    Working from memory here, but I seem to remember polling being at 48:52 in the final week of the indyref, leading to the 45:55 result.

    If the polling is showing 48:52 now, does that imply it could be 45:55 again or has it been fixed and tweaked such that it really is 48:52 (or basically TCTC given MoE)

    The polling was accurate if the pollsters had known turnout was going to be 85%

    It was one of those few instances where self certifying turnout was accurate/had underestimated the turnout.

    The pollsters had no baseline to work from, a problem they won't face this time.

    https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/841257722339307521
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,690

    HYUFD said:

    Complete and utter rubbish. You voted Leave fully endorsing the Leave campaign's exploitation of the immigration issue and you cannot wash your hands of it now or indeed the fact you may have pushed Scotland towards independence. I voted Remain but recognise the Leave vote has to be honoured

    I didn't endorse either the immigration argument or the NHS funding argument. And with stopping immigration pretty well accepted as functionally impossible even with hard brexit it was a ludicrous argument to begin with.

    People may have voted to leave thinking foreigners would go home. Or that it meant hard brexit. Or that we we "take back control". Thats up to them. Not why I voted to leave.

    Are you basically arguing that someone voting for Party A as the least worst option is endorsing them? Thats complete and utter rubbish, to coin a phrase

    You saw the posters against immigration the Leave campaign put up and you knew full well a Leave vote could break up the UK yet you went ahead and did it anyway. Therefore if Scotland does vote for independence you must share the blame, tough!
    ..
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    Can someone answer me if Scottish indyref polling has been "fixed"?

    Working from memory here, but I seem to remember polling being at 48:52 in the final week of the indyref, leading to the 45:55 result.

    If the polling is showing 48:52 now, does that imply it could be 45:55 again or has it been fixed and tweaked such that it really is 48:52 (or basically TCTC given MoE)

    I'm pretty sure all such polling is now normalised to the result, which should theoretically fix it.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Yes campaign website launched:

    https://www.ref.scot/

    I've signed up and volunteered to help.

    It even accepted a Gibraltar postcode.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    surbiton said:

    malcolmg said:

    If there is another referendum in Scotland, who's going to lead the No campaign? The current crop of unionist politicians is not exactly stellar, is it?

    You've just broken the heart of every Scottish Tory surger there by not acknowledging Ruth Davidson's awesomeness.
    There's only so much kickboxing one girl can do.
    One major consequence of the commons wipe-out of SLAB (and indeed the other parties just hanging on in there) has been a culling of Scottish Big Beasts from political life.

    And the collapse of SLAB in the polls, means putting forward a SLAB figure as head unionist cheerleader now carries similar disadvantages (if not quite the same level of toxicity to the decisive floating voters) to putting forward a Tory figure.
    Yes a Tory leading will be a big help toYes for sure
    SLAB should and probably will come out in favour of independence. That is the only way SLAB could begin to claw back their lost voters. By siding with Tories is a death wish as Corbyn is doing now.
    No - SLAB need to claw back the Unionists who have moved to the Tories.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,690
    surbiton said:

    Does anybody seriously think that if the UK had voted to Remain, Sturgeon and the SNP wouldn't still have been agitating for a second referendum?

    It's all they've got.

    precisely
    Indeed. - The SNP protested at being dragged into the EU by England, they’re protesting now at England dragging them out, it really makes no odds, a second, third and even fourth Indyref was always going to be on the cards.
    You mean the Tories dragged us into the EEC - without a vote - and are now determined to take the "suicide option" of getting us out of the EU which again no one [ the suicide option ] voted for. To clarify, no one voted for a hard brexit. Certainly not, Hannan and Johnson.
    Hannam and Johnson quite happily exploited the immigration issue to win Leave votes in the referendum campaign as part of Vote Leave
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Well this should accelerate the Scottish move to a two-party state. The lack of SLab voices on PB.com 2005-2010 was truly the canary in the coal mine.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    justin124 said:

    What else was anyone expecting? Brexit was inevitably going to lead to a second independence referendum. The UK has had its day. Just as England has drifted inexorably away from the EU, so Scotland is drifting inexorably away from England and Wales. Northern Ireland is too. It's all very sad, but there is no sustainable British demos anymore. Last June's vote was the final nail in its coffin.

    Good. Hanging on to relationships that have essentially expired is never a good idea for either party. If the people of Scotland or NI or Wales want to make their own way in the world good for them. I see no reason to grieve or to worry.
    On the same basis, there may be areas that wish to separate from Scotland - the Border areas as well as the Shetlands. Those living there should certainly have their view taken into account in the same way that the Ulster counties were permitted to remain within the UK in the early 1920s.
    In a post independence Scotland a question on wether the Borders should remain part of Scotland or become part of England would be hilariously one sided. I'd imagine 97% remain at worst.
  • BojabobBojabob Posts: 642
    Good luck, fair Scotland.

    I wish you well.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,885

    Can someone answer me if Scottish indyref polling has been "fixed"?

    Working from memory here, but I seem to remember polling being at 48:52 in the final week of the indyref, leading to the 45:55 result.

    If the polling is showing 48:52 now, does that imply it could be 45:55 again or has it been fixed and tweaked such that it really is 48:52 (or basically TCTC given MoE)

    The polling was accurate if the pollsters had known turnout was going to be 85%

    It was one of those few instances where self certifying turnout was accurate/had underestimated the turnout.

    The pollsters had no baseline to work from, a problem they won't face this time.
    I wonder if this might lead them to make the same mistake in reverse. Perhaps No voters simply won't turn out this time.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited March 2017

    PeterC said:

    Your judgement is lacking. Having established that the Theresa May is not in control, the EU, and the UK, would have no interest in going over the cliff. There will be a humiliating climbdown.

    Unfortunately, there is no mechanism for a climbdown, humiliating or otherwise.
    This presumes A50 cannot be reversed. But no one knows for sure about that as the treaty does not address the issue. It would be useful to get a definitive ruling so each will then know where he stands.
    Without being explicit, the text of the treaty is about as clear as it could be, as indeed is the logic of the clause. How is it possible to state that membership will end at the commencement of the agreement / the two-year limit / the extended limit, if one side could unilaterally terminate the withdrawal discussions and return to the status quo ante?
    I think Tusk said that Brexit could be reversed. Logically, Brexit only takes place after the final agreement is done and agreed by all the countries and the European parliament. So until the whole process is gone through, there is nothing on the European side to stop reversing A50.

    Britain may not agree with that. But that is where lawyers make money.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,690
    A majority of Scottish exports go to the UK unlike UK exports to the EU
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    surbiton said:

    malcolmg said:

    If there is another referendum in Scotland, who's going to lead the No campaign? The current crop of unionist politicians is not exactly stellar, is it?

    You've just broken the heart of every Scottish Tory surger there by not acknowledging Ruth Davidson's awesomeness.
    There's only so much kickboxing one girl can do.
    One major consequence of the commons wipe-out of SLAB (and indeed the other parties just hanging on in there) has been a culling of Scottish Big Beasts from political life.

    And the collapse of SLAB in the polls, means putting forward a SLAB figure as head unionist cheerleader now carries similar disadvantages (if not quite the same level of toxicity to the decisive floating voters) to putting forward a Tory figure.
    Yes a Tory leading will be a big help toYes for sure
    SLAB should and probably will come out in favour of independence. That is the only way SLAB could begin to claw back their lost voters. By siding with Tories is a death wish as Corbyn is doing now.
    SLab are a Unionist party. It is a principled stand that will kill them. You have to respect them for that.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    There is, however, a vacancy for a left-of-centre leader of Scotland Says No.

    Ruth? :p
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    Does anybody seriously think that if the UK had voted to Remain, Sturgeon and the SNP wouldn't still have been agitating for a second referendum?

    It's all they've got.

    precisely
    Indeed. - The SNP protested at being dragged into the EU by England, they’re protesting now at England dragging them out, it really makes no odds, a second, third and even fourth Indyref was always going to be on the cards.
    You mean the Tories dragged us into the EEC - without a vote - and are now determined to take the "suicide option" of getting us out of the EU which again no one [ the suicide option ] voted for. To clarify, no one voted for a hard brexit. Certainly not, Hannan and Johnson.
    Hannam and Johnson quite happily exploited the immigration issue to win Leave votes in the referendum campaign as part of Vote Leave
    Hannan was totally in favour of the EEA option - so was not against freedom of movement. Please do not start new lies. I know Leavers are good at that.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,712
    Alistair said:

    surbiton said:

    malcolmg said:

    If there is another referendum in Scotland, who's going to lead the No campaign? The current crop of unionist politicians is not exactly stellar, is it?

    You've just broken the heart of every Scottish Tory surger there by not acknowledging Ruth Davidson's awesomeness.
    There's only so much kickboxing one girl can do.
    One major consequence of the commons wipe-out of SLAB (and indeed the other parties just hanging on in there) has been a culling of Scottish Big Beasts from political life.

    And the collapse of SLAB in the polls, means putting forward a SLAB figure as head unionist cheerleader now carries similar disadvantages (if not quite the same level of toxicity to the decisive floating voters) to putting forward a Tory figure.
    Yes a Tory leading will be a big help toYes for sure
    SLAB should and probably will come out in favour of independence. That is the only way SLAB could begin to claw back their lost voters. By siding with Tories is a death wish as Corbyn is doing now.
    SLab are a Unionist party. It is a principled stand that will kill them. You have to respect them for that.
    errr SLAB sowed the seeds of Scottish discord for years by banging the drum of bloody English Torries

    They did the SNPs groundwork for them

  • BojabobBojabob Posts: 642
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Complete and utter rubbish. You voted Leave fully endorsing the Leave campaign's exploitation of the immigration issue and you cannot wash your hands of it now or indeed the fact you may have pushed Scotland towards independence. I voted Remain but recognise the Leave vote has to be honoured

    I didn't endorse either the immigration argument or the NHS funding argument. And with stopping immigration pretty well accepted as functionally impossible even with hard brexit it was a ludicrous argument to begin with.

    People may have voted to leave thinking foreigners would go home. Or that it meant hard brexit. Or that we we "take back control". Thats up to them. Not why I voted to leave.

    Are you basically arguing that someone voting for Party A as the least worst option is endorsing them? Thats complete and utter rubbish, to coin a phrase

    You saw the posters against immigration the Leave campaign put up and you knew full well a Leave vote could break up the UK yet you went ahead and did it anyway. Therefore if Scotland does vote for independence you must share the blame, tough!
    ..
    Quite right. The dangers of a Brexit vote triggering the breakup of the UK were advanced in no uncertain terms during the EURef campaign. Ergo, those who voted Leave either a) were comfortable with Scotland leaving the union or b) were uncomfortable but such such a small degree it wasn't salient for them and it didn't change their vote.

    I think, as was said at the time, you break it, you own it. Pro-Union Leavers should repent in leisure.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,010
    Alistair said:

    surbiton said:

    malcolmg said:

    If there is another referendum in Scotland, who's going to lead the No campaign? The current crop of unionist politicians is not exactly stellar, is it?

    You've just broken the heart of every Scottish Tory surger there by not acknowledging Ruth Davidson's awesomeness.
    There's only so much kickboxing one girl can do.
    One major consequence of the commons wipe-out of SLAB (and indeed the other parties just hanging on in there) has been a culling of Scottish Big Beasts from political life.

    And the collapse of SLAB in the polls, means putting forward a SLAB figure as head unionist cheerleader now carries similar disadvantages (if not quite the same level of toxicity to the decisive floating voters) to putting forward a Tory figure.
    Yes a Tory leading will be a big help toYes for sure
    SLAB should and probably will come out in favour of independence. That is the only way SLAB could begin to claw back their lost voters. By siding with Tories is a death wish as Corbyn is doing now.
    SLab are a Unionist party. It is a principled stand that will kill them. You have to respect them for that.
    It is not unionism that has killed them, it is being crap that has done for them.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    surbiton said:

    By Sam Coates of The Times

    1. So I'm a bit baffled by Nicola Sturgeon's referendum timing. Can someone explain what's happening because as far as I can see:

    2. Sturgeon wants #indyref2 next year - which is mid Brexit talks. She will promise something she can't deliver: continuity EU for Scotland.

    3. This means that EU membership uncertain. Currency uncertain. Relationship with rUK uncertain. Means huge risks on her side

    4. Scexit takes 2 years - meanining it takes place after Brexit. And during that intervening gap would Scotland be in or out of EU?

    5. Spain wd veto Scottish "continuity" membership in a heartbeat. So this doesn't look like it will fly without radically changed circs

    6. So these are hardly ideal conditions for a referendum - centrepiece is continuity which voters will know they can't offer. So why do it

    7. Is it - therefore - a ruse? And she knows No10 wont accept? And it suits No10 and FM to kick can down road while pretending otherwise?

    Regardless, of all these, Scotland will get EEA status pretty easily. I am not sure what Spain can do about that.
    Have people missed the Spanish MEP saying that Spain wouldn't veto Scottish EU membership?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,264
    surbiton said:

    By Sam Coates of The Times

    1. So I'm a bit baffled by Nicola Sturgeon's referendum timing. Can someone explain what's happening because as far as I can see:

    2. Sturgeon wants #indyref2 next year - which is mid Brexit talks. She will promise something she can't deliver: continuity EU for Scotland.

    3. This means that EU membership uncertain. Currency uncertain. Relationship with rUK uncertain. Means huge risks on her side

    4. Scexit takes 2 years - meanining it takes place after Brexit. And during that intervening gap would Scotland be in or out of EU?

    5. Spain wd veto Scottish "continuity" membership in a heartbeat. So this doesn't look like it will fly without radically changed circs

    6. So these are hardly ideal conditions for a referendum - centrepiece is continuity which voters will know they can't offer. So why do it

    7. Is it - therefore - a ruse? And she knows No10 wont accept? And it suits No10 and FM to kick can down road while pretending otherwise?

    Regardless, of all these, Scotland will get EEA status pretty easily. I am not sure what Spain can do about that.
    Threaten to leave the EU as the only way to stay together?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,712
    Bojabob said:

    Good luck, fair Scotland.

    I wish you well.

    pound up :-)
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Alistair said:

    surbiton said:

    malcolmg said:

    If there is another referendum in Scotland, who's going to lead the No campaign? The current crop of unionist politicians is not exactly stellar, is it?

    You've just broken the heart of every Scottish Tory surger there by not acknowledging Ruth Davidson's awesomeness.
    There's only so much kickboxing one girl can do.
    One major consequence of the commons wipe-out of SLAB (and indeed the other parties just hanging on in there) has been a culling of Scottish Big Beasts from political life.

    And the collapse of SLAB in the polls, means putting forward a SLAB figure as head unionist cheerleader now carries similar disadvantages (if not quite the same level of toxicity to the decisive floating voters) to putting forward a Tory figure.
    Yes a Tory leading will be a big help toYes for sure
    SLAB should and probably will come out in favour of independence. That is the only way SLAB could begin to claw back their lost voters. By siding with Tories is a death wish as Corbyn is doing now.
    SLab are a Unionist party. It is a principled stand that will kill them. You have to respect them for that.

    Many, many SLAB members and voters voted YES last time. I think there will be a major introspection on this. In fact, Labour can only remain a relevant left-of-centre party in Scotland if they go for independence. Ironically, this will immediately reduce support for the SNP.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Fine. Does that apply to the EEA as well ?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Can someone answer me if Scottish indyref polling has been "fixed"?

    Working from memory here, but I seem to remember polling being at 48:52 in the final week of the indyref, leading to the 45:55 result.

    If the polling is showing 48:52 now, does that imply it could be 45:55 again or has it been fixed and tweaked such that it really is 48:52 (or basically TCTC given MoE)

    We are going to eat an amazing calibration tool as pollsters can ask how people voted at the ast IndyRef.

    Any poll that doesn't feature that needs a realllllly good reason not to be ignored.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    surbiton said:

    Alistair said:

    surbiton said:

    malcolmg said:

    If there is another referendum in Scotland, who's going to lead the No campaign? The current crop of unionist politicians is not exactly stellar, is it?

    You've just broken the heart of every Scottish Tory surger there by not acknowledging Ruth Davidson's awesomeness.
    There's only so much kickboxing one girl can do.
    One major consequence of the commons wipe-out of SLAB (and indeed the other parties just hanging on in there) has been a culling of Scottish Big Beasts from political life.

    And the collapse of SLAB in the polls, means putting forward a SLAB figure as head unionist cheerleader now carries similar disadvantages (if not quite the same level of toxicity to the decisive floating voters) to putting forward a Tory figure.
    Yes a Tory leading will be a big help toYes for sure
    SLAB should and probably will come out in favour of independence. That is the only way SLAB could begin to claw back their lost voters. By siding with Tories is a death wish as Corbyn is doing now.
    SLab are a Unionist party. It is a principled stand that will kill them. You have to respect them for that.

    Many, many SLAB members and voters voted YES last time. I think there will be a major introspection on this. In fact, Labour can only remain a relevant left-of-centre party in Scotland if they go for independence. Ironically, this will immediately reduce support for the SNP.
    So then we have two Indy parties versus one Unionist (with vague apologies to the Scottish LD's). FPTP won't be kind...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,690
    Bojabob said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Complete and utter rubbish. You voted Leave fully endorsing the Leave campaign's exploitation of the immigration issue and you cannot wash your hands of it now or indeed the fact you may have pushed Scotland towards independence. I voted Remain but recognise the Leave vote has to be honoured

    I didn't endorse either the immigration argument or the NHS funding argument. And with stopping immigration pretty well accepted as functionally impossible even with hard brexit it was a ludicrous argument to begin with.

    People may have voted to leave thinking foreigners would go home. Or that it meant hard brexit. Or that we we "take back control". Thats up to them. Not why I voted to leave.

    Are you basically arguing that someone voting for Party A as the least worst option is endorsing them? Thats complete and utter rubbish, to coin a phrase

    You saw the posters against immigration the Leave campaign put up and you knew full well a Leave vote could break up the UK yet you went ahead and did it anyway. Therefore if Scotland does vote for independence you must share the blame, tough!
    ..
    Quite right. The dangers of a Brexit vote triggering the breakup of the UK were advanced in no uncertain terms during the EURef campaign. Ergo, those who voted Leave either a) were comfortable with Scotland leaving the union or b) were uncomfortable but such such a small degree it wasn't salient for them and it didn't change their vote.

    I think, as was said at the time, you break it, you own it. Pro-Union Leavers should repent in leisure.
    Exactly, all Leave voters knew a Leave vote risked Scottish independence, if they accepted that as a price worth paying to leave the EU then fine but they absolutely cannot deny their Leave vote boosted the SNP cause
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,147
    Alistair said:

    surbiton said:

    By Sam Coates of The Times

    1. So I'm a bit baffled by Nicola Sturgeon's referendum timing. Can someone explain what's happening because as far as I can see:

    2. Sturgeon wants #indyref2 next year - which is mid Brexit talks. She will promise something she can't deliver: continuity EU for Scotland.

    3. This means that EU membership uncertain. Currency uncertain. Relationship with rUK uncertain. Means huge risks on her side

    4. Scexit takes 2 years - meanining it takes place after Brexit. And during that intervening gap would Scotland be in or out of EU?

    5. Spain wd veto Scottish "continuity" membership in a heartbeat. So this doesn't look like it will fly without radically changed circs

    6. So these are hardly ideal conditions for a referendum - centrepiece is continuity which voters will know they can't offer. So why do it

    7. Is it - therefore - a ruse? And she knows No10 wont accept? And it suits No10 and FM to kick can down road while pretending otherwise?

    Regardless, of all these, Scotland will get EEA status pretty easily. I am not sure what Spain can do about that.
    Have people missed the Spanish MEP saying that Spain wouldn't veto Scottish EU membership?
    Were they talking about vetoing an application to join after independence, or vetoing continued membership which the EU themselves say isn't possible?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,448
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,712
    edited March 2017
    HYUFD said:

    Bojabob said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Complete and utter rubbish. You voted Leave fully endorsing the Leave campaign's exploitation of the immigration issue and you cannot wash your hands of it now or indeed the fact you may have pushed Scotland towards independence. I voted Remain but recognise the Leave vote has to be honoured

    I didn't endorse either the immigration argument or the NHS funding argument. And with stopping immigration pretty well accepted as functionally impossible even with hard brexit it was a ludicrous argument to begin with.

    People may have voted to leave thinking foreigners would go home. Or that it meant hard brexit. Or that we we "take back control". Thats up to them. Not why I voted to leave.

    Are you basically arguing that someone voting for Party A as the least worst option is endorsing them? Thats complete and utter rubbish, to coin a phrase

    You saw the posters against immigration the Leave campaign put up and you knew full well a Leave vote could break up the UK yet you went ahead and did it anyway. Therefore if Scotland does vote for independence you must share the blame, tough!
    ..
    Quite right. The dangers of a Brexit vote triggering the breakup of the UK were advanced in no uncertain terms during the EURef campaign. Ergo, those who voted Leave either a) were comfortable with Scotland leaving the union or b) were uncomfortable but such such a small degree it wasn't salient for them and it didn't change their vote.

    I think, as was said at the time, you break it, you own it. Pro-Union Leavers should repent in leisure.
    Exactly, all Leave voters knew a Leave vote risked Scottish independence, if they accepted that as a price worth paying to leave the EU then fine but they absolutely cannot deny their Leave vote boosted the SNP cause
    what guff

    the SNP would have called a second indyref no matter what, it's what they do
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,885
    Quoting someone who can't spell Barroso is a good way to spread misinformation.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited March 2017

    Can someone answer me if Scottish indyref polling has been "fixed"?

    Working from memory here, but I seem to remember polling being at 48:52 in the final week of the indyref, leading to the 45:55 result.

    If the polling is showing 48:52 now, does that imply it could be 45:55 again or has it been fixed and tweaked such that it really is 48:52 (or basically TCTC given MoE)

    The polling was accurate if the pollsters had known turnout was going to be 85%

    It was one of those few instances where self certifying turnout was accurate/had underestimated the turnout.

    The pollsters had no baseline to work from, a problem they won't face this time.
    I wonder if this might lead them to make the same mistake in reverse. Perhaps No voters simply won't turn out this time.
    No voters are quieter but there are 10 percentage points more of hardcore Unionists than there are of hardcore Indy supporters.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241

    Yes campaign website launched:

    https://www.ref.scot/

    Registered 11 days ago.....so not a spur of the moment decision

    What is it with Nats and South West England?

    It's hosted in Gloucester......
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,712
    The Scottish investment office will have nothing to do now for the next 3 years
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,448
    SeanT said:

    If one is wanted, one will be found.

    I don't think so, because it would require unanimity. Alastair's metaphor of the barrel going over the falls is right, I think. For that matter, so it should be - we have had the referendum, it has been decided we're leaving.
    But the form of Leaving is yet to be decided. TMay can avoid this entire McClusterfuck by softening her stance on Brexit, fudging some kind of Single Market membership under a different name.

    No need for indyref2. The UK is saved.
    Having Regrexit Sean? ;)
This discussion has been closed.