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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The persistence of kippers – looking at where post-referendum

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    Patrick said:

    What is Section 30?


    It's the one after Section 29.
    Cheers. I was wondering! ;-)
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,079
    TGOHF said:

    I look forward to the SNP plan for rejoining the EU - with details of their budget and currency plans.

    They're not leaving.
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    LennonLennon Posts: 1,733
    rcs1000 said:

    nunu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I don't know how aware people are of this, but the US has an extraordinary opiate addiction epidemic right now. In some US states, there are more opiate prescriptions than there are residents. In Tennessee, there is a law which states that if a doctor refuses to prescribe painkillers to a patient, he must refer them to someone who will.

    There are now more than 30,000 deaths per year from opiate overdoses.

    That law must be counterproductive? Shouldn't the law be for the Doctor to prescribe rehab?

    Anyways, what is striking is how this epidemic is effecting the white rural population.
    There is a US lobbying group Patients for Pain Relief, or somesuch, that is funded entirely by the drug industry and which employs 1,300 lobbyists that goes round pushing states to make it easier for people to get painkiller prescriptions.
    In states such as Colorado with medical marijana, are they are allowed to prescribe Cannabis? Got to be a damn sight safer than opiates...
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @alexmassie: "Take back control" will be the SNP theme in #IndyRef2
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    So what happens if Theresa May is disinclined to acquiesce to Nicola Sturgeon's request?
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,937
    What else was anyone expecting? Brexit was inevitably going to lead to a second independence referendum. The UK has had its day. Just as England has drifted inexorably away from the EU, so Scotland is drifting inexorably away from England and Wales. Northern Ireland is too. It's all very sad, but there is no sustainable British demos anymore. Last June's vote was the final nail in its coffin.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited March 2017
    Anorak said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I don't know how aware people are of this, but the US has an extraordinary opiate addiction epidemic right now. In some US states, there are more opiate prescriptions than there are residents. In Tennessee, there is a law which states that if a doctor refuses to prescribe painkillers to a patient, he must refer them to someone who will.

    WTFF? Not doubting you, but I'd be interested to read the source of that. Astonishing fact.
    Justified tv show had this as a central point, and legalising marijuana in Kentucky.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    I look forward to the SNP plan for rejoining the EU - with details of their budget and currency plans.

    They're not leaving.

    TGOHF said:

    I look forward to the SNP plan for rejoining the EU - with details of their budget and currency plans.

    They're not leaving.
    What currency will Sindy use ?
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    EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956

    So another Project Fear Reality prediction comes true.

    Only if Yes wins this time.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    So what happens if Theresa May is disinclined to acquiesce to Nicola Sturgeon's request?

    She'll scweam, and scweam, and scweam, until she's sick
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    justin124 said:

    surbiton said:

    Danny565 said:

    RobD said:

    Second!

    It is interesting that both UKIP and the Lib Dems haven't really moved much in the polls.

    For all the hype, the Lib Dems really haven't made much progress in the polls at all. They've barely crawled up a few points since the EU referendum, and, worse, any progress they've made seems to have completely stalled since the New Year (after they got a bit of a lift following Richmond Park). They're only a bit ahead of where they were at this point in the disastrous 2010-15 parliament.

    Of course, the picture of the polls is completely contradicted by the local council byelections week after week, so goodness knows what's really going on with them.
    For all the hype? As far as I can see the LibDems have received very little.They get very little Press coverage and their Leader is regularly rubbished, both here and in the right-wing Press.

    Like Labour, the LibDems have a leader problem. Unlike Corbyn, Farron is not hopelessly out of touch, does not hold views that are anathema to 80% of the population and is not utterly useless at leading, but he does not have a persona that commands attention. With millions and millions of voters looking on in bemusement at what is currently happening in and to the UK looking for someone to articulate their frustration, the opportunity is huge. It's tailor-made for someone like Charlie Kennedy or a pre-coalition Clegg, but the LibDems do not have that god dust anymore, it seems.

    I think you are under estimating what the Liberals can do, if Corbyn stays in situ. 10% could easily become 20% in no time. Mostly, from Labour but a few from the Tories too.

    With a strong leader, I suspect that the LDs would already be closer to 20% than 10%. Farron just does not inspire. If Corbyn is in charge in 2020, they will probably get my vote (if anyone does), but it's easy for me - I live in a seat that the Tories are going to hold come what may.

    I think you underestimate the toxicity of LibDems to left of centre voters. It will take a generation before they will be forgiven for their role as 'the Tories little helpers'.
    Lib Dems are neither right nor left but anti-authoritarian.

    Corbynistas are keen on central state control authoritarianism - so not keen on Lib Dems, or at least not keen on the liberal elements.

    Lib Dems should be seducing Conservative Remainers.
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    GIN1138 said:

    So Nicola says she wants the referendum between Autumn 2018 and Spring 2019.

    The UK's negotiations with the will end Spring 2019 so that leaves room for Scotland to have a referendum after in April or May 2019 after they see what kind of deal we get.

    Seems fair enough to me. HMG would be advised to accept that timeline.

    I have no problem with a referendum post March 2019 and it seems Nicola is content with that. In those circumstances Scotland would leave their biggest market and be out of Europe until consent to join the EU is given.

    Sounds economic suicide
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,079
    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    I look forward to the SNP plan for rejoining the EU - with details of their budget and currency plans.

    They're not leaving.

    TGOHF said:

    I look forward to the SNP plan for rejoining the EU - with details of their budget and currency plans.

    They're not leaving.
    What currency will Sindy use ?
    The Euro.

    Next question?
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,822
    edited March 2017

    So what happens if Theresa May is disinclined to acquiesce to Nicola Sturgeon's request?

    Will just make the Scot's more likely to leave the UK when they do eventually get another referendum.
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    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    I look forward to the SNP plan for rejoining the EU - with details of their budget and currency plans.

    They're not leaving.

    TGOHF said:

    I look forward to the SNP plan for rejoining the EU - with details of their budget and currency plans.

    They're not leaving.
    What currency will Sindy use ?
    The Euro.

    Next question?
    Nicola has stated the pound
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    What else was anyone expecting? Brexit was inevitably going to lead to a second independence referendum. The UK has had its day. Just as England has drifted inexorably away from the EU, so Scotland is drifting inexorably away from England and Wales. Northern Ireland is too. It's all very sad, but there is no sustainable British demos anymore. Last June's vote was the final nail in its coffin.

    Yawn - you just ignoring polling north of the border again ?
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850
    If the SNP loses, will they demand a third referendum?
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    EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956
    Scott_P said:

    @alexmassie: "Take back control" will be the SNP theme in #IndyRef2

    Surely that should be "give back control"?
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    I look forward to the SNP plan for rejoining the EU - with details of their budget and currency plans.

    They're not leaving.

    TGOHF said:

    I look forward to the SNP plan for rejoining the EU - with details of their budget and currency plans.

    They're not leaving.
    What currency will Sindy use ?
    The Euro.

    Next question?
    Great - that is very clear.

    I look forward to a referendum with the SNP squarely putting that as their policy.

    LOL.
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Patrick said:

    What is Section 30?

    It bans the promotion of Scottish Nationalism in schools.
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,003

    So what happens if Theresa May is disinclined to acquiesce to Nicola Sturgeon's request?

    Armed insurrection and/or UDI.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    I look forward to the SNP plan for rejoining the EU - with details of their budget and currency plans.

    They're not leaving.

    TGOHF said:

    I look forward to the SNP plan for rejoining the EU - with details of their budget and currency plans.

    They're not leaving.
    What currency will Sindy use ?
    The Euro.

    Next question?
    Nicola has stated the pound
    But with no lender of last resort and no control over interest rates. How does one join the EU (and by default the Euro) without their own currency?
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    I look forward to the SNP plan for rejoining the EU - with details of their budget and currency plans.

    They're not leaving.

    TGOHF said:

    I look forward to the SNP plan for rejoining the EU - with details of their budget and currency plans.

    They're not leaving.
    What currency will Sindy use ?
    Irn brew.
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    Sean_F said:

    If the SNP loses, will they demand a third referendum?

    Look to Shetland now to ask to leave Scotland
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,822

    What else was anyone expecting? Brexit was inevitably going to lead to a second independence referendum. The UK has had its day. Just as England has drifted inexorably away from the EU, so Scotland is drifting inexorably away from England and Wales. Northern Ireland is too. It's all very sad, but there is no sustainable British demos anymore. Last June's vote was the final nail in its coffin.

    I think there's a lot in what you say. I've always felt Scotland leaving the UK was inevitable since Labour brought in devolution.
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    glwglw Posts: 9,549
    edited March 2017
    Sean_F said:

    If the SNP loses, will they demand a third referendum?

    Undoubtedly, there will always be a grievance that Westminster can not make good.
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    Sandpit said:

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    I look forward to the SNP plan for rejoining the EU - with details of their budget and currency plans.

    They're not leaving.

    TGOHF said:

    I look forward to the SNP plan for rejoining the EU - with details of their budget and currency plans.

    They're not leaving.
    What currency will Sindy use ?
    The Euro.

    Next question?
    Nicola has stated the pound
    But with no lender of last resort and no control over interest rates. How does one join the EU (and by default the Euro) without their own currency?
    Because they really have no idea
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Sean_F said:

    If the SNP loses, will they demand a third referendum?

    Best of Five?

    I'd suggest a game of Rock Paper Sporran to clinch it.
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Scott_P said:

    @alexmassie: "Take back control" will be the SNP theme in #IndyRef2

    Take back control from London and give it to Bruxelles.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    What else was anyone expecting? Brexit was inevitably going to lead to a second independence referendum. The UK has had its day. Just as England has drifted inexorably away from the EU, so Scotland is drifting inexorably away from England and Wales. Northern Ireland is too. It's all very sad, but there is no sustainable British demos anymore. Last June's vote was the final nail in its coffin.

    Good. Hanging on to relationships that have essentially expired is never a good idea for either party. If the people of Scotland or NI or Wales want to make their own way in the world good for them. I see no reason to grieve or to worry.
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    DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215

    So what happens if Theresa May is disinclined to acquiesce to Nicola Sturgeon's request?

    What is the legal basis for declaring independence? Does it have to be via referendum?
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,079
    Sandpit said:

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    I look forward to the SNP plan for rejoining the EU - with details of their budget and currency plans.

    They're not leaving.

    TGOHF said:

    I look forward to the SNP plan for rejoining the EU - with details of their budget and currency plans.

    They're not leaving.
    What currency will Sindy use ?
    The Euro.

    Next question?
    Nicola has stated the pound
    But with no lender of last resort and no control over interest rates. How does one join the EU (and by default the Euro) without their own currency?
    Create a central bank.

    Next question?
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    I look forward to the SNP plan for rejoining the EU - with details of their budget and currency plans.

    They're not leaving.

    TGOHF said:

    I look forward to the SNP plan for rejoining the EU - with details of their budget and currency plans.

    They're not leaving.
    What currency will Sindy use ?
    The Euro.

    Next question?

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    I look forward to the SNP plan for rejoining the EU - with details of their budget and currency plans.

    They're not leaving.

    TGOHF said:

    I look forward to the SNP plan for rejoining the EU - with details of their budget and currency plans.

    They're not leaving.
    What currency will Sindy use ?
    The Euro.

    Next question?
    Nicola has stated the pound
    Chortle .. :smiley:
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    glwglw Posts: 9,549
    GIN1138 said:

    I think there's a lot in what you say. I've always felt Scotland leaving the UK was inevitable since Labour brought in devolution.

    Devolution has had precisely the opposite effect that Labour thought it would.
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    DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    Sean_F said:

    If the SNP loses, will they demand a third referendum?

    Would losing a second referendum actually hurt them in the Scottish elections this time?
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,632

    justin124 said:

    surbiton said:

    Danny565 said:

    RobD said:

    Second!

    It is interesting that both UKIP and the Lib Dems haven't really moved much in the polls.

    For all the hype, the Lib Dems really haven't made much progress in the polls at all. They've barely crawled up a few points since the EU referendum, and, worse, any progress they've made seems to have completely stalled since the New Year (after they got a bit of a lift following Richmond Park). They're only a bit ahead of where they were at this point in the disastrous 2010-15 parliament.

    Of course, the picture of the polls is completely contradicted by the local council byelections week after week, so goodness knows what's really going on with them.
    For all the hype? As far as I can see the LibDems have received very little.They get very little Press coverage and their Leader is regularly rubbished, both here and in the right-wing Press.

    Like Labour, the LibDems have a leader problem. Unlike Corbyn, Farron is not hopelessly out of touch, does not hold views that are anathema to 80% of the population and is not utterly useless at leading, but he does not have a persona that commands d to the UK looking for someone to articulate their frustration, the opportunity is seems.

    I think you are under estimating what the Liberals can do, if Corbyn stays in situ. 10% could easily become 20% in no time. Mostly, from Labour but a few from the Tories too.

    With a strong leader, I suspect that the LDs would already be closer to 20% than 10%. Farron just does not inspire. If Corbyn is in charge in 2020, they will probably get my vote (if anyone does), but it's easy for me - I live in a seat that the Tories are going to hold come what may.

    I think you underestimate the toxicity of LibDems to left of centre voters. It will take a generation before they will be forgiven for their role as 'the Tories little helpers'.
    Lib Dems are neither right nor left but anti-authoritarian.

    Corbynistas are keen on central state control authoritarianism - so not keen on Lib Dems, or at least not keen on the liberal elements.

    Lib Dems should be seducing Conservative Remainers.
    Lib Dems anti-authoritarian???

    This is the party that wants to overturn the democratic result of the Brexit referendum and has now announced that they would use Westminster to try and block a Scottish independence referendum against the wishes of the Scottish Parliament.

    They are the most authoritarian party going.
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    Sandpit said:

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    I look forward to the SNP plan for rejoining the EU - with details of their budget and currency plans.

    They're not leaving.

    TGOHF said:

    I look forward to the SNP plan for rejoining the EU - with details of their budget and currency plans.

    They're not leaving.
    What currency will Sindy use ?
    The Euro.

    Next question?
    Nicola has stated the pound
    But with no lender of last resort and no control over interest rates. How does one join the EU (and by default the Euro) without their own currency?
    Create a central bank.

    Next question?
    How could a Scottish central bank control interest rates or money supply without its own currency?
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Sean_F said:

    If the SNP loses, will they demand a third referendum?

    Naturally, Sturgeon stands down, a new leader is elected and the whole circus will start again.
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    Thinking of Nicola's proposals I believe she is attempting to blackmail Westminster for more powers as I am not convinced, despite her bluster, that even she thinks she could win
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Scott_P said:

    @alexmassie: "Take back control" will be the SNP theme in #IndyRef2

    Take back control from London and give it to Bruxelles.
    EU rule from Berlin.

    Arbeit MacFree.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    I look forward to the SNP plan for rejoining the EU - with details of their budget and currency plans.

    They're not leaving.

    TGOHF said:

    I look forward to the SNP plan for rejoining the EU - with details of their budget and currency plans.

    They're not leaving.
    What currency will Sindy use ?
    The Euro.

    Next question?
    Have you read the requirements that have to be met before a state can join the Euro?
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Patrick said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Anorak said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I don't know how aware people are of this, but the US has an extraordinary opiate addiction epidemic right now. In some US states, there are more opiate prescriptions than there are residents. In Tennessee, there is a law which states that if a doctor refuses to prescribe painkillers to a patient, he must refer them to someone who will.

    WTFF? Not doubting you, but I'd be interested to read the source of that. Astonishing fact.
    https://www.cdc.gov/drugoverdose/data/prescribing.html
    Astonishing but not really news. Middle America has had a very very tough decade. Suicides, drug abuse, non-participation in labour market, food stamps, etc. You can see why Trump chose MAGA as his mantra.
    Someone on Gutfield called the new jobs increase in construction and mining 'fly over jobs' because the MSM were ignoring the job stats or claiming they were all Obama legacy.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,822
    glw said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I think there's a lot in what you say. I've always felt Scotland leaving the UK was inevitable since Labour brought in devolution.

    Devolution has had precisely the opposite effect that Labour thought it would.
    That was always going to be the outcome. It's like unpicking the fabric of a country thread by thread until eventually the entire thing just falls apart.
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,003
    GeoffM said:

    Scott_P said:

    @alexmassie: "Take back control" will be the SNP theme in #IndyRef2

    Take back control from London and give it to Bruxelles.
    EU rule from Berlin.

    Arbeit MacFree.
    Jedem das (Auld Lang) Seine.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,937
    TGOHF said:

    What else was anyone expecting? Brexit was inevitably going to lead to a second independence referendum. The UK has had its day. Just as England has drifted inexorably away from the EU, so Scotland is drifting inexorably away from England and Wales. Northern Ireland is too. It's all very sad, but there is no sustainable British demos anymore. Last June's vote was the final nail in its coffin.

    Yawn - you just ignoring polling north of the border again ?

    The polling shows Scotland split down the middle. If Scotland votes to stay it will be for economic reasons only. That is not sustainable.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850
    I don't want Scotland to vote for independence, but I've far less desire to see Scotland given a veto over decisions that the voters of the UK as a whole consider to be in their interest.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    No Sindyref2: Sindyref Harder thread?
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    By the time we get to an independence vote we will already have a Scottish deal in the bag. The EU are going to guarantee their EEA membership with at least fast track membership to the whole thing agreed. They'll be offered a better deal that the floor scrapings we're going to be proffered. And that'll be used as pressure on the rest of the UK.

    What can May threaten them with? Throwing them out of the CTA, currency and customs unions? A physical border? People will be laughing in her face.

    Bravo Nicola, bravo. A brilliant political gambit. Any Jeremy obsessives reading this - that's what leadership looks like.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    edited March 2017
    So Sturgeon pushes for indyref2 in late 2018 or early 2019, no surprise really. Given the whole premise of the argument is the opposition to Brexit May should only ask the question on the basis of something like 'Do you want Scotland to leave the United Kingdom in order to rejoin the European Union'?
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,079

    Sandpit said:

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    I look forward to the SNP plan for rejoining the EU - with details of their budget and currency plans.

    They're not leaving.

    TGOHF said:

    I look forward to the SNP plan for rejoining the EU - with details of their budget and currency plans.

    They're not leaving.
    What currency will Sindy use ?
    The Euro.

    Next question?
    Nicola has stated the pound
    But with no lender of last resort and no control over interest rates. How does one join the EU (and by default the Euro) without their own currency?
    Create a central bank.

    Next question?
    How could a Scottish central bank control interest rates or money supply without its own currency?
    It would take part in the governing council of the ECB.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,308
    So once in a generation means every 4 years. Who'd have thought? Well, its a lot easier than trying to run the country.

    The Scottish local elections have got more significant too. Going to need my walking shoes.
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    scotslassscotslass Posts: 912
    Rochdale

    Agreed in every respect
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,079
    HYUFD said:

    So Sturgeon pushes for indyref2 in late 2018 or early 2019, no surprise really. Given the whole premise of the argument is the opposition to Brexit May should only ask the question on the basis of something like 'Do you want Scotland to leave the United Kingdom in order to rejoin the European Union'?

    My suggestion was always: "Should Scotland remain in the European Union as an independent member state?"
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    By the time we get to an independence vote we will already have a Scottish deal in the bag. The EU are going to guarantee their EEA membership with at least fast track membership to the whole thing agreed. They'll be offered a better deal that the floor scrapings we're going to be proffered. And that'll be used as pressure on the rest of the UK.

    What can May threaten them with? Throwing them out of the CTA, currency and customs unions? A physical border? People will be laughing in her face.

    Bravo Nicola, bravo. A brilliant political gambit. Any Jeremy obsessives reading this - that's what leadership looks like.

    The EU will not negotiate with Scotland until the UK have left
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    glwglw Posts: 9,549
    DavidL said:

    So once in a generation means every 4 years. Who'd have thought? Well, its a lot easier than trying to run the country.

    Continuous referendums are inevitable whilst there is an SNP government.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    edited March 2017

    It is 7/1 and 8/1 that Theresa May steps down as PM in 2018 and 2019 respectively.

    Massive if Scots vote for Independence.

    (With Ladbrokes)

    May backed Remain, it was the English and Welsh electorates decision to vote Leave which led to any indyref2 so of course she has no need to resign
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    Sandpit said:

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    I look forward to the SNP plan for rejoining the EU - with details of their budget and currency plans.

    They're not leaving.

    TGOHF said:

    I look forward to the SNP plan for rejoining the EU - with details of their budget and currency plans.

    They're not leaving.
    What currency will Sindy use ?
    The Euro.

    Next question?
    Nicola has stated the pound
    But with no lender of last resort and no control over interest rates. How does one join the EU (and by default the Euro) without their own currency?
    Create a central bank.

    Next question?
    How could a Scottish central bank control interest rates or money supply without its own currency?
    It would take part in the governing council of the ECB.

    Greece needs the Euro to be devalued but Germany needs the Euro to be revalued. Individual countries don't have control over the Euro or interest rates.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited March 2017
    What is it about the whole EU question which causes so many politicians and voters to engage in utter fantasy? I see Ms Sturgeon is still trying to pretend that there's some mechanism by which Scotland can 'remain' in the EU (or the Single Market) when the UK doesn't.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,481
    edited March 2017
    HYUFD said:

    It is 7/1 and 8/1 that Theresa May steps down as PM in 2018 and 2019 respectively.

    Massive if Scots vote for Independence.

    (With Ladbrokes)

    May backed Remain, it was the English and Welsh electorates decision to vote Leave which led to any indyref2 so of course she would not resign
    Would you like to bet on that?

    If Scotland votes to Leave the UK, Mrs May won't resign?
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    DavidL said:

    So once in a generation means every 4 years. Who'd have thought? Well, its a lot easier than trying to run the country.

    The Scottish local elections have got more significant too. Going to need my walking shoes.

    Appears that Nicla has reacted badly to the Calcutta Cup result ..
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,632
    As a Leaver who also supports Scottish independence (as an Englander), this is shaping up to be a good day.

    It is also my birthday, and I've already got my presents, so I am in a contented state.

    If only Jezza would announce his resignation...
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,079

    By the time we get to an independence vote we will already have a Scottish deal in the bag. The EU are going to guarantee their EEA membership with at least fast track membership to the whole thing agreed. They'll be offered a better deal that the floor scrapings we're going to be proffered. And that'll be used as pressure on the rest of the UK.

    What can May threaten them with? Throwing them out of the CTA, currency and customs unions? A physical border? People will be laughing in her face.

    Bravo Nicola, bravo. A brilliant political gambit. Any Jeremy obsessives reading this - that's what leadership looks like.

    The EU will not negotiate with Scotland until the UK have left
    Every Scottish UK citizen is an EU citizen. The rights of EU citizens will be the first thing on the table in the A50 negotiations. Theresa May will put herself in an impossible position if she is being seen to hold them hostage.
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,003

    By the time we get to an independence vote we will already have a Scottish deal in the bag. The EU are going to guarantee their EEA membership with at least fast track membership to the whole thing agreed. They'll be offered a better deal that the floor scrapings we're going to be proffered. And that'll be used as pressure on the rest of the UK.

    What can May threaten them with? Throwing them out of the CTA, currency and customs unions? A physical border? People will be laughing in her face.

    Bravo Nicola, bravo. A brilliant political gambit. Any Jeremy obsessives reading this - that's what leadership looks like.

    The EU will not negotiate with Scotland until the UK have left
    Why? It's a golden opportunity for the EU to fuck over May's Brexit operation.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Sturgeon mocking Jezza ....

    I suppose almost everyone else does but it's a wee bit unsporting to my mind.
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    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    edited March 2017
    Britain is leaving the EU.

    Therefore Scotland is leaving the EU.

    (The SNP lost SindyRef1).

    SIndyRef2 will then come after that, no matter how much Sturgeon might want it sooner.

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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850

    By the time we get to an independence vote we will already have a Scottish deal in the bag. The EU are going to guarantee their EEA membership with at least fast track membership to the whole thing agreed. They'll be offered a better deal that the floor scrapings we're going to be proffered. And that'll be used as pressure on the rest of the UK.

    What can May threaten them with? Throwing them out of the CTA, currency and customs unions? A physical border? People will be laughing in her face.

    Bravo Nicola, bravo. A brilliant political gambit. Any Jeremy obsessives reading this - that's what leadership looks like.

    There's a naïve belief among the more diehard Remainers that somehow the threat of a Scottish independence referendum is a fitting punishment for the insubordination of English and Welsh voters.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,937

    By the time we get to an independence vote we will already have a Scottish deal in the bag. The EU are going to guarantee their EEA membership with at least fast track membership to the whole thing agreed. They'll be offered a better deal that the floor scrapings we're going to be proffered. And that'll be used as pressure on the rest of the UK.

    What can May threaten them with? Throwing them out of the CTA, currency and customs unions? A physical border? People will be laughing in her face.

    Bravo Nicola, bravo. A brilliant political gambit. Any Jeremy obsessives reading this - that's what leadership looks like.

    The EU will not negotiate with Scotland until the UK have left

    Not openly.

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    glwglw Posts: 9,549

    What is it about the whole EU question which causes so many politicians and voters to engage in utter fantasy? I see Ms Sturgeon is trying to pretend that there's some mechansim by which Scotland can 'remain' in the EU when the UK doesn't.

    She has to pretend that because the truth won't look quite as palatable.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898

    Sandpit said:

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    I look forward to the SNP plan for rejoining the EU - with details of their budget and currency plans.

    They're not leaving.

    TGOHF said:

    I look forward to the SNP plan for rejoining the EU - with details of their budget and currency plans.

    They're not leaving.
    What currency will Sindy use ?
    The Euro.

    Next question?
    Nicola has stated the pound
    But with no lender of last resort and no control over interest rates. How does one join the EU (and by default the Euro) without their own currency?
    Create a central bank.

    Next question?
    A central bank backed by what? Printed McPoonds?
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    Think buying property in Berwick and Carlisle would be a canny investment
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    I wonder if the First Minister's announcement today was partly in response to this?

    https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/841259848134209536
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    HYUFD said:

    It is 7/1 and 8/1 that Theresa May steps down as PM in 2018 and 2019 respectively.

    Massive if Scots vote for Independence.

    (With Ladbrokes)

    May backed Remain, it was the English and Welsh electorates decision to vote Leave which led to any indyref2 so of course she would not resign
    Would you like to bet on that?

    If Scotland votes to Leave the EU, Mrs May won't resign?
    Scotland isn't voting on leaving the EU - it's voting on whether to leave it's biggest trading partner and adopt a new currency.
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    As a Leaver who also supports Scottish independence (as an Englander), this is shaping up to be a good day.

    It is also my birthday, and I've already got my presents, so I am in a contented state.

    If only Jezza would announce his resignation...

    Happy Birthday.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028

    I've realised if we do get a second Indyref I'll be happy whatever the result.

    If Scots vote to remain a part of the UK I'll be able to laugh at the Scot Nats.

    If Scots vote to leave the UK I'll be able to blame the Leavers and warn them that Dave/Remain were right. Plus if Mrs May has any honour, she'd resign as PM, just as Dave would have done if the first Indyref had been lost, so George will become PM to fix the mess.

    In the event of an indyref Yes vote and May did resign Osborne's best chance would be to run on a hard Scexit platform and a programme of screwing the Scots
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    TGOHF said:

    HYUFD said:

    It is 7/1 and 8/1 that Theresa May steps down as PM in 2018 and 2019 respectively.

    Massive if Scots vote for Independence.

    (With Ladbrokes)

    May backed Remain, it was the English and Welsh electorates decision to vote Leave which led to any indyref2 so of course she would not resign
    Would you like to bet on that?

    If Scotland votes to Leave the EU, Mrs May won't resign?
    Scotland isn't voting on leaving the EU - it's voting on whether to leave it's biggest trading partner and adopt a new currency.
    Auto-correct/typo on my part, meant the UK.
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    Dura_Ace said:

    By the time we get to an independence vote we will already have a Scottish deal in the bag. The EU are going to guarantee their EEA membership with at least fast track membership to the whole thing agreed. They'll be offered a better deal that the floor scrapings we're going to be proffered. And that'll be used as pressure on the rest of the UK.

    What can May threaten them with? Throwing them out of the CTA, currency and customs unions? A physical border? People will be laughing in her face.

    Bravo Nicola, bravo. A brilliant political gambit. Any Jeremy obsessives reading this - that's what leadership looks like.

    The EU will not negotiate with Scotland until the UK have left
    Why? It's a golden opportunity for the EU to fuck over May's Brexit operation.
    It would be against the treaty obligations
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,079

    Britain is leaving the EU.

    Therefore Scotland is leaving the EU.

    The United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union. The European Union will honour that democratic mandate by giving the United Kingdom a smooth way to break itself apart and hence cease to be a member state.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,822
    edited March 2017
    Dura_Ace said:

    By the time we get to an independence vote we will already have a Scottish deal in the bag. The EU are going to guarantee their EEA membership with at least fast track membership to the whole thing agreed. They'll be offered a better deal that the floor scrapings we're going to be proffered. And that'll be used as pressure on the rest of the UK.

    What can May threaten them with? Throwing them out of the CTA, currency and customs unions? A physical border? People will be laughing in her face.

    Bravo Nicola, bravo. A brilliant political gambit. Any Jeremy obsessives reading this - that's what leadership looks like.

    The EU will not negotiate with Scotland until the UK have left
    Why? It's a golden opportunity for the EU to fuck over May's Brexit operation.
    The EU will try and stir things up a bit but ultimately they won't offer any special favours to Scotland... If they did they'd be giving succor to nationalists all over the Continent, example Spain.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Dura_Ace said:

    By the time we get to an independence vote we will already have a Scottish deal in the bag. The EU are going to guarantee their EEA membership with at least fast track membership to the whole thing agreed. They'll be offered a better deal that the floor scrapings we're going to be proffered. And that'll be used as pressure on the rest of the UK.

    What can May threaten them with? Throwing them out of the CTA, currency and customs unions? A physical border? People will be laughing in her face.

    Bravo Nicola, bravo. A brilliant political gambit. Any Jeremy obsessives reading this - that's what leadership looks like.

    The EU will not negotiate with Scotland until the UK have left
    Why? It's a golden opportunity for the EU to fuck over May's Brexit operation.
    Have you checked with Spain ?
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,937

    By the time we get to an independence vote we will already have a Scottish deal in the bag. The EU are going to guarantee their EEA membership with at least fast track membership to the whole thing agreed. They'll be offered a better deal that the floor scrapings we're going to be proffered. And that'll be used as pressure on the rest of the UK.

    What can May threaten them with? Throwing them out of the CTA, currency and customs unions? A physical border? People will be laughing in her face.

    Bravo Nicola, bravo. A brilliant political gambit. Any Jeremy obsessives reading this - that's what leadership looks like.

    To be fair, Corbyn will be getting what he wants, too, if the UK breaks-up. But you are right, Sturgeon has played a blinder on this. What will May throw at the Scots to keep them on board? Being the Conservative and Unionist PM who lost the Union would be quite something on her CV.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,632

    As a Leaver who also supports Scottish independence (as an Englander), this is shaping up to be a good day.

    It is also my birthday, and I've already got my presents, so I am in a contented state.

    If only Jezza would announce his resignation...

    Happy Birthday.
    Thank you Mr E - it is a 'big' birthday too!
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,079
    GIN1138 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    By the time we get to an independence vote we will already have a Scottish deal in the bag. The EU are going to guarantee their EEA membership with at least fast track membership to the whole thing agreed. They'll be offered a better deal that the floor scrapings we're going to be proffered. And that'll be used as pressure on the rest of the UK.

    What can May threaten them with? Throwing them out of the CTA, currency and customs unions? A physical border? People will be laughing in her face.

    Bravo Nicola, bravo. A brilliant political gambit. Any Jeremy obsessives reading this - that's what leadership looks like.

    The EU will not negotiate with Scotland until the UK have left
    Why? It's a golden opportunity for the EU to fuck over May's Brexit operation.
    The EU will try and stir things up a bit but ultimately they won't offer any special favours to Scotland... If they did they'd be given succor to nationalists all over the Continent, example Spain.
    Precisely wrong. They will be sending a message that this is what would happen if Spain as a whole ever tried to leave the EU.
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    MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651

    What is it about the whole EU question which causes so many politicians and voters to engage in utter fantasy? I see Ms Sturgeon is trying to pretend that there's some mechansim by which Scotland can 'remain' in the EU when the UK doesn't.

    Even if she thinks it's nonsense herself, it's a convenient position, isn't it? Who's going to pooh-pooh her? Nasty unionists who are denying it to suit their own agenda, clearly. It's a nice position to be in when anyone who calls you out can be dismissed as biased due to being a non-believer and wrecker.
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    As a Leaver who also supports Scottish independence (as an Englander), this is shaping up to be a good day.

    It is also my birthday, and I've already got my presents, so I am in a contented state.

    If only Jezza would announce his resignation...

    Happy Birthday.
    Thank you Mr E - it is a 'big' birthday too!
    21st?
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    TGOHF said:

    What else was anyone expecting? Brexit was inevitably going to lead to a second independence referendum. The UK has had its day. Just as England has drifted inexorably away from the EU, so Scotland is drifting inexorably away from England and Wales. Northern Ireland is too. It's all very sad, but there is no sustainable British demos anymore. Last June's vote was the final nail in its coffin.

    Yawn - you just ignoring polling north of the border again ?

    The polling shows Scotland split down the middle. If Scotland votes to stay it will be for economic reasons only. That is not sustainable.
    Quite possibly, Mr. Observer, but just about all the reasons put forward for why the UK should remain in the EU have been about the economics. You can't have it both ways.

    If Scotland wants to set out on her own then let her go. Who gives a toss? The practicalities, as effect England, we will work through (a couple of hundred miles of razor wire should solve most of them).
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976

    What is it about the whole EU question which causes so many politicians and voters to engage in utter fantasy? I see Ms Sturgeon is still trying to pretend that there's some mechanism by which Scotland can 'remain' in the EU (or the Single Market) when the UK doesn't.

    The truth will out - she’ll go the same way as Alex Salmond in the end.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,937
    TGOHF said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    By the time we get to an independence vote we will already have a Scottish deal in the bag. The EU are going to guarantee their EEA membership with at least fast track membership to the whole thing agreed. They'll be offered a better deal that the floor scrapings we're going to be proffered. And that'll be used as pressure on the rest of the UK.

    What can May threaten them with? Throwing them out of the CTA, currency and customs unions? A physical border? People will be laughing in her face.

    Bravo Nicola, bravo. A brilliant political gambit. Any Jeremy obsessives reading this - that's what leadership looks like.

    The EU will not negotiate with Scotland until the UK have left
    Why? It's a golden opportunity for the EU to fuck over May's Brexit operation.
    Have you checked with Spain ?

    Once Scotland is an independent country, Spain has no leg to stand on. Plenty can be done in advance of that. And on Day One of independence Scotland can have a special relationship with the EU.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,079
    edited March 2017

    What is it about the whole EU question which causes so many politicians and voters to engage in utter fantasy? I see Ms Sturgeon is still trying to pretend that there's some mechanism by which Scotland can 'remain' in the EU (or the Single Market) when the UK doesn't.

    You have misinterpreted the implications of the fantasy scenario. The rUK cannot leave.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,308
    TGOHF said:

    DavidL said:

    So once in a generation means every 4 years. Who'd have thought? Well, its a lot easier than trying to run the country.

    The Scottish local elections have got more significant too. Going to need my walking shoes.

    Appears that Nicla has reacted badly to the Calcutta Cup result ..
    Something of an overreaction I would say, despite the considerable disappointment.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Suspect the Conservative campaign for the May local elections in Scotland just received a significant boost.
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    glwglw Posts: 9,549

    What will May throw at the Scots to keep them on board?

    Hopefully nothing whatsoever. Scots have no right to special treatment.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850

    Britain is leaving the EU.

    Therefore Scotland is leaving the EU.

    The United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union. The European Union will honour that democratic mandate by giving the United Kingdom a smooth way to break itself apart and hence cease to be a member state.
    Just imagine how angry you'll be if Scotland opts to remain in the UK.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,937

    TGOHF said:

    What else was anyone expecting? Brexit was inevitably going to lead to a second independence referendum. The UK has had its day. Just as England has drifted inexorably away from the EU, so Scotland is drifting inexorably away from England and Wales. Northern Ireland is too. It's all very sad, but there is no sustainable British demos anymore. Last June's vote was the final nail in its coffin.

    Yawn - you just ignoring polling north of the border again ?

    The polling shows Scotland split down the middle. If Scotland votes to stay it will be for economic reasons only. That is not sustainable.
    Quite possibly, Mr. Observer, but just about all the reasons put forward for why the UK should remain in the EU have been about the economics. You can't have it both ways.

    If Scotland wants to set out on her own then let her go. Who gives a toss? The practicalities, as effect England, we will work through (a couple of hundred miles of razor wire should solve most of them).

    Yep, my case for staying in the EU was economic. I lost. I get that people vote for reasons that go beyond economics.

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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,079
    Sean_F said:

    Britain is leaving the EU.

    Therefore Scotland is leaving the EU.

    The United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union. The European Union will honour that democratic mandate by giving the United Kingdom a smooth way to break itself apart and hence cease to be a member state.
    Just imagine how angry you'll be if Scotland opts to remain in the UK.
    I'd look like this:

    image
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    Lib Dems should be seducing Conservative Remainers.

    Absolutely so. I've voted Conservative at every GE since eligible but feel strongly repelled by the present post-referendum iteration of the brand.

    I'm very patiently waiting to be seduced by the Lib Dems but nothing much seems to be happening on that front. I'm guessing it might be something to do with the fact that although I hate the idea of Brexit I accept it whereas that is not quite where the Lib Dems are.

    Either way there's nothing on offer from any party right now that could tempt me to slip paper into the ballot box slot.

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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I think we're about to find out where all those donations have been going that haven't been going to the SNP.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    Even if she thinks it's nonsense herself, it's a convenient position, isn't it? Who's going to pooh-pooh her? Nasty unionists who are denying it to suit their own agenda, clearly. It's a nice position to be in when anyone who calls you out can be dismissed as biased due to being a non-believer and wrecker.

    It's a convenient position in the short term, but a strategy based on assuming your voters are half-wits tends to run into trouble, especially if they are.

    In any case, the people who are going to pooh-pooh her are our EU friends.
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    Sean_F said:

    Britain is leaving the EU.

    Therefore Scotland is leaving the EU.

    The United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union. The European Union will honour that democratic mandate by giving the United Kingdom a smooth way to break itself apart and hence cease to be a member state.
    Just imagine how angry you'll be if Scotland opts to remain in the UK.
    And they will
This discussion has been closed.