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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Six months on with little information from Mrs May what should

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    midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    Roger said:

    CD13

    '.....................It must be irritating to have only one vote, the same as the knuckle-dragging Neanderthals up north. I have some sympathy - it must be a devastating feeling to have your future decided by such idiots.
    Hmm ... but then again, it may be a human fault, but it remains a fault.
    Your turn now.'



    You are right......
    It IS beyond irritating that our futures have been decided by people with horrible motives.

    I suspect it feels like the Germans must have felt in 1933 when a third of the country voted for a racist bastard.

    Knowing that a third of your country shared his views must have been chilling.

    Knowing half of ours does is beyond chilling.

    You can be as condescending as you like. The civilised minority will never graciously accept this decision.

    And why should you expect them to?

    A bit silly. A huge difference between thinking there is too much immigration and being racist surely?
    I'm no Leaver but this sort of tripe gives grist to the mill of the Farages and Duncan Smiths of the world and plays a huge part in leading us to the unfortunate position we now find ourselves in.
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    Copeland looks like a shoe in for Conservatives at the by-election.

    They were not far behind Labour at the last election and now have Keswick added to the constituency. A weakened Labour Party will be losing votes to the Lib Dems (for Remainers) and UKIP (for Leavers).
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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,351
    Mr Freggles,

    "so naturally you get more Muslim terrorism."

    A classic. but I won't be caught. You're right, it's all the fault of we whities. I expect, as the Dubliners said that "The gargle has dimmed me brain.", but I'm off now to make it worse.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,205

    @tig86 No. Because *everyone* campaigning in Richmond Park was anti Third Runway. Copeland will be exactly the opposite. It'll be two months of the most extraordinary argument about who's most pro Sellafield. It will be a sight to behold.

    The anti Sellafield in Copeland is small but definitely present and will be vacant space. And Sellafield a one thing the plan to cram 3 new reactors in is another. The GDF is quite another still.

    Sounds sensible. That should be to the advantage of the Tories.
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    PlatoSaid said:

    @Plato - Don’t know if you were ever a fan of NCIS, or have heard of DiNozzo, ahyhows he left the show and now stars in his own called Bull. Watched a couple, Mrs SSC recomended.

    http://www.imdb.com/title/tt5827228/

    I've seen the Bull trailer and it looks great - didn't realise it was already out - UK Fox ads were telling me January.

    Will have a looksee elsewhere for it now. I thought casting Robert Wagner as Dinozzo dad was epic - what a resemblance!
    Robert Wagner :+1:
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Sean F and some of them are Tories on here - unbelievable.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,001
    @Shadsy 's book looks much more sensible to me.

    I really CAN'T see the value in that one.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,002
    Freggles said:

    isam said:

    Freggles said:

    isam said:

    Freggles said:

    isam said:

    One thing that isn't mentioned much...

    How incredible is it that a pretty young Mother, who was a committed Remainer, was brutally murdered by an ardent Leaver.. and Leave still won?!!!

    Really amazing how strong the nations Euroscepticism was.

    It would be like Remain winning after a Romanian beggar murdering Boris Johnson

    Or, the nation didn't tar a whole group because of one unhinged extremist.
    Wouldn't be fair to generalise would it?
    Fair or not it happens, esp when the bad guy has no redeeming features whatsoever and the victim is a pretty young lefty.
    Or they are Muslim
    Oh has there only been one unhinged muslim extremist? Want a spread bet?

    I'll buy at 2
    What's the exact tipping point for "well it must be all of them then"?

    It's clearly easier to make young Muslims feel like victims than white Europeans, despite the best efforts of Breitbart etc, so naturally you get more Muslim terrorism.
    No one with any brains says "Well it must be all of them then", but all over Europe there is unarguable evidence that when a country has a certain level of Muslims in the population, Islamic terrorism follows. So there is a tipping point... probably about 5-6%

    Countries that don't have that many, don't have the terrorism either.
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    For a supposed one time almost LEAVEr you are treading perilously close to a Meeksian glibness are dismissing the views of more than half the population out of hand as the raving of a bunch of weirdos and xenophobes.
    No "supposed one time LEAVEr" about it. I was merrily one of the BOO brigrade, but the vitriol coming from the various Leave campaigns was more repellent than "Project Fear" from Remain. I have no doubt that there are some jolly decent chaps and chappesses in the Leave side but their presence was more than compensated for by the vitriolic types.
    What was it that first attracted you to the idea of democracy
    The thought that people would use their brains to vote. Of course Churchill famously said that "The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter"

    So you were asked one question ("should we stay in the EU?") but answered another ("Do you like Nigel Farage?"). And so, in one way or another, did everyone else. And that is what is wrong with referendums and why we should never have another - they are always about something other than what they are about.
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    PlatoSaid said:


    I voted Leave - do you think I represent these traits?

    Who on PB does?

    I'm quite disturbed that you think we do. Ho hum.

    I have become quite disturbed that when someone I am speaking to turns out to be a leaver, if I say I voted remain, I get a no-nonsense lecture about how I am not doing my bit.

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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,880
    MP_SE said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    MP_SE said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    rcs1000 said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    With Christmas almost upon us, I'm watching Deadpool again

    Die Hard is on Netflix if you missed it on ITV the other day

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9vN6DHB6bJc

    An outstanding movie.
    I read a lot of TV/movie gossip and Deadpool is a feast of unhappy moneymen vs director vs writers vs rejected changes to tone it down.

    The guys who totally called it right and are summed up in the tone of the opening credits won the day.

    I loved it and hope for more like it. Who doesn't want Daffodil Daydream as a girlfriend?
    I really really hated Deadpool. I found the jokes cringy and the whole talking to the audience thing annoying.

    But then again I have a weird taste in films. I am currently watching Guyver: Dark Hero...
    I'm a Marvel fan - and Deadpool scored 9/10 for me. Agent Carter was super too, but got lost and didn't have a long agenda plot. I really liked DareDevil too.

    If you haven't seen Agent Carter - it scores 8.1 on IMdb and got cancelled, idiots.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V13W9gQ_1GA
    I will have to give Agent Carter a watch.

    Daredevil on Netflix was decent.

    Jessica Jones was really boring and they seemed to drag out a story which should have been covered in no more than 2/3 episodes.

    Luke Cage was boring.

    Ant Man was surprisingly good.
    Imdb is for Brexiters. Populist rubbish.
    It's all about Metacritic.

    My wife tells me the OA (on Netflix) is worthwhile and she usually watches stuff and tells me not to bother because she knows how fussy I am.
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256


    And whilst ever people like you prefer it in the anti-democratic stasis over the wake-up call alternatives, it will never change.

    When did it become "anti-democratic" to say I voted the other way?

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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    tlg86 said:

    @tig86 No. Because *everyone* campaigning in Richmond Park was anti Third Runway. Copeland will be exactly the opposite. It'll be two months of the most extraordinary argument about who's most pro Sellafield. It will be a sight to behold.

    The anti Sellafield in Copeland is small but definitely present and will be vacant space. And Sellafield a one thing the plan to cram 3 new reactors in is another. The GDF is quite another still.

    Sounds sensible. That should be to the advantage of the Tories.
    It's not going to be easy for any candidate standing in opposition to the constituency's largest employer.

    It's also why Labour need to get a Sellafield union man as their candidate, picking Tarquin from Islington all but guarantees they lose the seat.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited December 2016
    MP_SE said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    MP_SE said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    rcs1000 said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    With Christmas almost upon us, I'm watching Deadpool again

    Die Hard is on Netflix if you missed it on ITV the other day

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9vN6DHB6bJc

    An outstanding movie.
    I read a lot of TV/movie gossip and Deadpool is a feast of unhappy moneymen vs director vs writers vs rejected changes to tone it down.

    The guys who totally called it right and are summed up in the tone of the opening credits won the day.

    I loved it and hope for more like it. Who doesn't want Daffodil Daydream as a girlfriend?
    I really really hated Deadpool. I found the jokes cringy and the whole talking to the audience thing annoying.

    But then again I have a weird taste in films. I am currently watching Guyver: Dark Hero...
    I'm a Marvel fan - and Deadpool scored 9/10 for me. Agent Carter was super too, but got lost and didn't have a long agenda plot. I really liked DareDevil too.

    If you haven't seen Agent Carter - it scores 8.1 on IMdb and got cancelled, idiots.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V13W9gQ_1GA
    I will have to give Agent Carter a watch.

    Daredevil on Netflix was decent.

    Jessica Jones was really boring and they seemed to drag out a story which should have been covered in no more than 2/3 episodes.

    Luke Cage was boring.

    Ant Man was surprisingly good.
    Was bored stiff with JJones after E3, and Luke Cage was awful - 5% per hour plot - I wanted it to be great and what a dullfest.

    Will check out Ant Man.

    Shooter is great as is Narcos S1/2. Designated Survivor is wank a la 24 with Keifer again.

    I watch an enormous amount of stuff regardless of the market - there's a lot of great teen drama worth watching if you're willing to forget your age for a bit.

    Teen Wolf is hilarious and great - as is Vampire Diaries on Netflix. Just watched TW again and on S6 VD again now and loving them.
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    llefllef Posts: 298
    re sterling/dollar parity by march, I just looked at option prices on IG for jun 21 2017.

    the 1.14 puts cost 1 cent to buy, (so break even is at 1.13)

    So if it fell to parity by that date, you would make 13 times your max loss.

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    midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    Sean_F said:

    @Plato some people are determined to persuade themselves that Theresa May's government is the Third Reich Reborn. Normal people see it as a bog standard Tory government.

    Currently it appears to be an inert, micromanaged mess with vague waffle about grammar schools all that passes for policy. Which is disappointing as it would surely be a better idea to ensure all counties education departments were adequately (or failing that at least fairly) funded before making pie in the sky plans.

    As for Brexit who knows. Maybe there is some masterplan in progress, but with the likes of Liam Fox involved I'm not holding my breath.

    I always imagined Tory Governments appeared a bit more competent
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,001
    Hills have finally cracked

    Tories into 10-11.
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    midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    welshowl said:

    @Chesnut

    Only one company for sure, but I can echo that personally. Our EU markets are in decline while the rest of the world expands on. That trend has been ongoing for at least a decade for us. We export about 60% of our output as a company.

    @ Midwinter

    Cameron was (is) a decent bloke. I found little to disagree with him on for years. For instance his handling of the Syrian refugee issue was spot on, in my view, and he did it under wailing virtue signalling pressure from the usual suspects.

    It was therefore very sad that his mistake (in my view, if not his one assumes) was to misread the public on the EU. His deal was crap, we all knew it. I suspect he will admit it in future memoirs. I really wish he'd had the nous to lead Leave as he would have walked it and would now be in a hugely powerful position. But he didn't and that's history. Brexit was decades in the making and was built over a political fault line that Ted Heath papered over from day one. We saw it mostly as a trade deal with political bits to tolerate, and the Continentals see it more or less the other way round (exhibit one: the Euro). It's been one itchy hair shirt for both sides since 1973. Cameron got it wrong for sure, sadly, but the traps were set by others long before.

    I wouldn't deny the deal was crap. I suspect the reason he didn't lead Leave was because he could see the problems following a Leave vote rather than because of any love for the EU. Only time will tell I suppose.

    Equally had he led leave who's to sat it would have won. I imagine for some the referendum was a chance to kick the Tory PM and it wouldn't have taken much to have reversed the result under those circumstances.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    Pulpstar said:

    Hills have finally cracked

    Tories into 10-11.

    Oh crap.
    Looks like I missed the 5/4 then :(
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,001
    @Sandpit Ladbrokes still evens.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    Pulpstar said:

    @Sandpit Ladbrokes still evens.

    Thanks - trying to arrange bets in shops via friends from 3,500 miles away isn't always as successful as I'd like it to be!
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    maaarsh said:

    WG - If no agreement is concluded within two years, that state's membership ends automatically, unless the European Council and the Member State concerned decide jointly to extend this period.

    Two questions remain unanswered:

    - What are the constitutional requirements for the UK to invoke Article 50?
    - Is Article 50 unilaterally revocable?

    The answers, in my view, are:

    - Much more onerous than even the worst-case scenario currently envisaged.
    - Yes.
    Some wonderful clutching at straws here.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,978

    @Plato - Don’t know if you were ever a fan of NCIS, or have heard of DiNozzo, ahyhows he left the show and now stars in his own called Bull. Watched a couple, Mrs SSC recomended.

    http://www.imdb.com/title/tt5827228/

    I work away from home and live in digs when I'm there. I watch nothing *but* NCIS, goddamit. They show it constantly and out of sequence. Oh look, Ziva's in it. Oh look, she isn't. She's missing. No, she's dead. Oh look, McGee's skinny. Oh look, he's fat. Jethro is hunky. Jethro is fat. Ilya Kuryakin is English. No, the writers have remembered he's Scottish. Caitlin is in it. No, she isn't. The black bloke is the boss. The redhead woman is the boss. Jim from Neighbours is the boss. WHY DOESN'T ABBY AGE?!
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