This is not about Leavers v Remainers. It is about how this Tory government deals with Brexit. The problem May faces is a Tory one - reconciling the party's right with its centre. If she thought in terms of Parliament she would not have a problem, she'd get a soft Brexit through without too much difficulty, but she'd need votes from other parties to do it.
Unfortunately for all of us, she can't deliver a deal that does the best for the UK economically without upsetting the Tory right. She can't deliver one that clamps down on immigration without upsetting the centre. She has clearly decided that the right will cause her more trouble than the centre so is - rhetorically, at least - leaning towards hard Brexit.
I think plenty of Leavers would welcome Remainer input. But this seems to be a Tory and UKIP game, just as it was during the referendum, Mrs May shows no interest whatsoever in expanding the conversation and Jeremy Corbyn shows very little interest in persuading her to do so.
My other observation is to wonder whether we'd be hearing the all this consternation about 'hopelessly divided Britain' if Remain had won. Somehow I suspect the millions of Leave voters would have been conveniently swept under the carpet.
It was a binary choice, but the new deal has to consider the slender margin of victory. Many people may have been motivated to vote Leave by promises of strict immigration controls, but 48% of voters were happy with the Cameron deal, so something marginally stronger than that is fine.
I don't understand (slight lie, I have a pretty good idea) why Remainers have to make out that the vote means "Hard Brexit", it doesn't at all. If leavers want "hard Brexit", they will elect UKIP MP's in the areas where Leave won easily.
What we have is a lot of people who called it wrong now wishing bad on the people that called it right. Like an Arsenal fan saying he was glad Spurs made the CL so he could watch them make a mess of it, or a Spurs fan saying he was glad Arsenal won their group because they drew Bayern.
No it doesn't. Do these people have no other political beliefs or principles than staying in the EU blob? Can they not present their wonderful plan for a Birkenstock wearing, tram-riding social democracy to the public and win approval for it via the ballot box?
Mr. Glenn, moral grandstanding whilst importing over a million and a half (think the figure is around 1.6-1.8m into Germany in the last couple of years) people only to then try repatriating the dodgy ones (tens of thousands?) is drunken madness.
I pity Germany. Our own migration system is far from adequate and we have serious integration problems, but Merkel's approach has meant 2% or so of Germany's population has arrived there in the last couple of years. That's just not sound.
As convoluted as it is, I think that leavers at least have a destination. Out. That may well be a rocky road, full of doom and gloom, war, and Boris as PM, roads paved with gold and free jackboots for everyone. Who knows? On the other hand, what does "Remain" look like? Where does remain go from here? You want full unfettered immigration so yer kids can go for a skinny soya latte in Paris? You want the Euro? Full on Federalisation? Maybe you want it as it was before June 23rd? A sort of half bastard in/out, unhappy mess?
Alastair Meeks: "Since the referendum, Leavers have spent the last six months either polishing their jackboots or pretending that the referendum campaign never took place."
No, we really haven't. We have partied like a bastard, and enjoyed the Remainers going very publically mad.
Oh please like anyone on team leave would have trusted a plan set up by Cameron. You just wanted a someone else to take the blame for any dirty compromises that leave entails, so you could denounce those who did so as traitors. Sorry Leave needs to own Brexit, so they can't spend the next 20 years saying it would have been alright if they had followed their vision.
Who is this "Leave" you speak of ? Who is going to own it ? Sorry this is a load of tosh, outside the mutterings of this forum and below the line in the Guardian there is no "remain" or "leave" any more. The public has made their views known and moved on. If things go to hell it will be the (Remain voting) PM who will get it in the neck, it was ever thus.
Speak for yourself. I love nothing more than inserting a monocle, putting on my Iron Cross, and switching on a record of German Freikorps marching songs, when I go home in the evening.
Mr Dancer - There's a risk that when the planes start leaving, British xenophobes will look ok with envy and demand that we start the deportations too.
Speak for yourself. I love nothing more than inserting a monocle, putting on my Iron Cross, and switching on a record of German Freikorps marching songs, when I go home in the evening.
As a metter of fact TFS full on Federalisation IS what I, as a long-term Remainer, want. The Euro’s problems will get sorted, and the immigration issue will slowly grind to a halt
It depends which Remainers Leave is trying to win over. Winning over most Conservative former Remainers isn't hard. Most of them are eurosceptics, who share a similar social outlook to most people who voted Leave. Winning over left wing Remainers is almost impossible, I should think. For them, all the things that eurosceptics find bad about the EU are things that they find good about it.
Other Remain voters have on this thread posted about their lack of enthusiasm for the EU but having been repulsed by the Leave campaign (and continue to be repulsed by the inability of most Leavers to acknowledge the vile nature of the campaign that won them victory). This is exactly my position.
Are these not among the Remainers that Leave should be trying to win over?
As I noted on yesterday's thread, according to that YouGov poll 43% of Remainers thought that immigration was the main reason for a Leave vote and a further 36% cited racism, xenophobia, stupidity, ignorance and misinformation. Just 8% of Remainers thought a Leave vote was about sovereignty.
You seem to be deluding yourself that there is a vast cohort of Remain voters who are on the point of having the scales fall from their eyes. There aren't. Most of them have spent the last six months having every preconception about Leave supporters reconfirmed over and over again. This is not a division that is healing. Quite the opposite.
Just ran a spreadsheet for Copeland. If all other vote shares remain the same regardless of turnout, Labour have to hold on to all their Remain voters from 2015 and at least 75% of their Leave voters (with none of the 25% going directly to the Tories) in order to hold onto this seat.
That, given Corbyn's views on nuclear power, seems like a very long shot to me.
There is every reason to believe that the Labour vote share will drop significantly. Not a collapse on the scale of Sleaford one would've thought, given that they are defending this time, but Sleaford & North Hykeham and Copeland have some important similarities. Both are predominantly rural, very white, voted by over 60% to Leave, and they are more or less on a par in terms of both median income and median age.
Copeland experienced turnout lower than the national average in both the referendum and the general election, but only by about 3%, so my guess (for one can do no more than that, of course) is that turnout will be somewhere in the low 40s. A bit better than Sleaford, due to the fact that this should be viewed as a more competitive contest. My opening guess at the eventual result is therefore:
Con 10,500 Lab 7,000 Ukip 4,500 LD 3,000 Green 1,000
(This will undoubtedly come back to bite me on the arse when Eddie Izzard wins the by-election with about 70% of all votes cast. No reason to suppose that 2017 will contain any fewer surprises than 2016!)
Speak for yourself. I love nothing more than inserting a monocle, putting on my Iron Cross, and switching on a record of German Freikorps marching songs, when I go home in the evening.
Mr Dancer - There's a risk that when the planes start leaving, British xenophobes will look ok with envy and demand that we start the deportations too.
If they represent less than 50% of voters, you have nothing to worry about. If they represent more than 50% of voters, thats democracy
Speak for yourself. I love nothing more than inserting a monocle, putting on my Iron Cross, and switching on a record of German Freikorps marching songs, when I go home in the evening.
@TwistedFireStopper - Remain does not look like anything. It is not happening. However, there are many kinds of Out. There is Norway Out, Switzerland Out, Canada Out, China Out, North Korea Out and plenty in between. And they are all very different. What frustrates this Remainer (or, more accurately, this individual who voted Remain) is that the government seems to be dead set against any of us participating in the conversation about what option we should aim for and how we will get what we want.
Mr. Glenn, sorry, thought we were discussing the German situation.
Mr. Indigo, some might say the barbarophobes are the ones who dislike foreigners. Xenophobes are just those who dislike their fellow countrymen. (In Greek, xenos referred to 'foreign' Greeks from another city. Barbaros referred to non-Greeks).
As a metter of fact TFS full on Federalisation IS what I, as a long-term Remainer, want. The Euro’s problems will get sorted, and the immigration issue will slowly grind to a halt
That's fair enough. Not an outcome I'd be happy with, but at least you have a destination in mind.
@Richard Nabavi, I think that's right. Most local authorities saw between 40% and 60% vote either way.
The one sub-region that does stand out is the former London County Council area where 72% voted Remain. I do think feelings run high there.
Well quite. Don't tell Nicola, but 40% of Scots voted to Leave as well, I wonder how many of those are nationalists...
Don't forget the majority of Unionist constituencies in NI voted to Leave as well!
Yes. But the piquant bit about the situation north of the border is that Nicola's pro-EU posturing in all likelihood is going to drive away enough "true independence" nationalists that want to be part of neither the UK nor the EU, to ensure she loses any referendum handily.
Mr. Glenn, sorry, thought we were discussing the German situation.
Mr. Indigo, some might say the barbarophobes are the ones who dislike foreigners. Xenophobes are just those who dislike their fellow countrymen. (In Greek, xenos referred to 'foreign' Greeks from another city. Barbaros referred to non-Greeks).
It does feel as if a straight In/Out question was p'raps a little naive......
Speak for yourself. I love nothing more than inserting a monocle, putting on my Iron Cross, and switching on a record of German Freikorps marching songs, when I go home in the evening.
The winners should deal with the victory.However you have a scheming remainer in charge of the leave negotiations.It easy to understand that they expect betrayal.They will be hoping she is like a person who has just quit smoking ,and now is exteme against anyone lighting up at anytime or place.I believe she will go for a crafty drag on the remain peace pipe once big business whispers in her ear.
As a lawyer, you seem to have missed entirely what is going on. As do most of the media and the Government. The EU have made it quite clear they will only have the resources to negotiate the exit agreement of article 50 first. Then, when that is finished they will start on any future trade deal. The EU expect the withdrawal document to take 2 years as it will be very contentious re EU pensions etc.
After 2 years the 5-7 year negotiation for a new treaty can start. This is when some of the points you make become valid. However, at this point we are out of the EU and on WTO terms in all likelihood and will be making the best of it. From there we have choices about what to do next, but in my world for example, everyone will just be getting on with figuring out the simplest way to get around passporting either into or out of the UK.
This is what people like to call 'Hard Brexit.' Handily, it is also what was voted for. The 2020 election will though be very exciting as it is held in the middle of this crisis - and much to your eternal annoyance, the Govt will likely prevail with a bigger majority having had (or rather, been forced to) to go full Brexit anyway.
All the EU ministers and panjarams have ruled out any transitional arrangements already; anything you hear or read about this is for the birds.
Mr. Glenn, sorry, thought we were discussing the German situation.
Mr. Indigo, some might say the barbarophobes are the ones who dislike foreigners. Xenophobes are just those who dislike their fellow countrymen. (In Greek, xenos referred to 'foreign' Greeks from another city. Barbaros referred to non-Greeks).
It does feel as if a straight In/Out question was p'raps a little naive......
You seem to be deluding yourself that there is a vast cohort of Remain voters who are on the point of having the scales fall from their eyes. There aren't. Most of them have spent the last six months having every preconception about Leave supporters reconfirmed over and over again. This is not a division that is healing. Quite the opposite.
If you only consider that select group in the electorate that care enough to fill in a questionnaire about the merits and shortcomings of either side of the referendum. That must be the very definition of a self selected survey sample. 99% of voters will yawns and walk on by the interviewer, the 1% of PB addicts will be pushing the button on Yougov like crazy trying to earn a few more points.
but Sleaford & North Hykeham and Copeland have some important similarities. Both are predominantly rural, very white, voted by over 60% to Leave, and they are more or less on a par in terms of both median income and median age.
There are crucial differences between Sleaford and Copeland.
You can't get a more conservative area than rural Lincolnshire, while Copeland is a historically Labour area more reminiscent of the Welsh Valleys than Lincolnshire.
It could end up like the Ogmore by-election. And even in Sleaford the swing recorded would not have been enough for the Tories to gain Copeland.
Most instant assumptions might not work in marginals.
@TwistedFireStopper - Remain does not look like anything. It is not happening. However, there are many kinds of Out. There is Norway Out, Switzerland Out, Canada Out, China Out, North Korea Out and plenty in between. And they are all very different. What frustrates this Remainer (or, more accurately, this individual who voted Remain) is that the government seems to be dead set against any of us participating in the conversation about what option we should aim for and how we will get what we want.
You assume that more than one or two of those are even on the table. Its entirely possible for example that government back channel discussions have basically been told to piss off, and that the only deal on offer is the Rock Hard BrExit, and they are trying to figure out how to dress it up for the voters and more to the point, how to sell it to the City.
Mr. Glenn, sorry, thought we were discussing the German situation.
Mr. Indigo, some might say the barbarophobes are the ones who dislike foreigners. Xenophobes are just those who dislike their fellow countrymen. (In Greek, xenos referred to 'foreign' Greeks from another city. Barbaros referred to non-Greeks).
CityUnslicker - why exactly would we agree to any deal on pensions without a trade deal. No deal will be done until everything is decided - anything else involves one side foolishly throwing away leverage. We may leave without agreement in 2 years, but that wouldn't involve paying a penny for continuing liabilities unless so agreed. (whilst we're at it, why do the requests for funding of continuing liabilities never get round to discussing the continuing assets we helped pay for?)
Mark Dice The Muslim claiming Delta Airlines kicked him off his flight for speaking Arabic is the same YouTuber who faked an islamaphobia video in '14
Holy crap, you are suddenly concerned about the accuracy of random videos on the internet?
The trustworthiness or honesty of the individual who is the main subject of clip was, I believe, the target of the question.
Plato has continually positively posted videos from someone (O'Keefe) who had to pay out a six figure settlement due to their deceptive, fraudulent videos.
AlsoIndigo: "You assume that more than one or two of those are even on the table. Its entirely possible for example that government back channel discussions have basically been told to piss off, and that the only deal on offer is the Rock Hard BrExit, and they are trying to figure out how to dress it up for the voters and more to the point, how to sell it to the City."
Rock Hard BrExit is an easy sell.
"We tried to be reasonable. We're always reasonable. But those bloody French and Germans... Cuh, eh, what are they like? Cut off their own nose to spite their face they would, every time. Well, fvck 'em, we're not coming to their rescue this time. They've made their own bed. Now they can bloody lie in. We're better off outofvit, I tell yer, and no mistake...."
Mark Dice The Muslim claiming Delta Airlines kicked him off his flight for speaking Arabic is the same YouTuber who faked an islamaphobia video in '14
Holy crap, you are suddenly concerned about the accuracy of random videos on the internet?
The trustworthiness or honesty of the individual who is the main subject of clip was, I believe, the target of the question.
Plato has continually positively posted videos from someone (O'Keefe) who had to pay out a six figure settlement due to their deceptive, fraudulent videos.
Although that video of O'Keefe regarding payed rioters and protesters at Trump rallies was genuine and caused the Democrats involved to be fired.
Maarsh - the exit agreement is the terms of the divorce. The trade agreement is the new relationship. They are entirely different in law and in action. @also indigo has the measure of it below.
@Speedy - there is a strong union presence in Copeland that was not there in Sleaford. It is centred on Sellafield, of course, so Labour's choice of candidate will be crucial. An anti-nuclear Corbynista is likely to get very little help. A pro-nuclear local union candidate may attract more practical support with things like get out the vote. It's still a tough ask for Labour, but with the right candidate it is a possible hold.
My other observation is to wonder whether we'd be hearing the all this consternation about 'hopelessly divided Britain' if Remain had won. Somehow I suspect the millions of Leave voters would have been conveniently swept under the carpet.
It was a binary choice, but the new deal has to consider the slender margin of victory. Many people may have been motivated to vote Leave by promises of strict immigration controls, but 48% of voters were happy with the Cameron deal, so something marginally stronger than that is fine.
I don't understand (slight lie, I have a pretty good idea) why Remainers have to make out that the vote means "Hard Brexit", it doesn't at all. If leavers want "hard Brexit", they will elect UKIP MP's in the areas where Leave won easily.
What we have is a lot of people who called it wrong now wishing bad on the people that called it right. Like an Arsenal fan saying he was glad Spurs made the CL so he could watch them make a mess of it, or a Spurs fan saying he was glad Arsenal won their group because they drew Bayern.
No it doesn't. Do these people have no other political beliefs or principles than staying in the EU blob? Can they not present their wonderful plan for a Birkenstock wearing, tram-riding social democracy to the public and win approval for it via the ballot box?
Although had Remain won 52-48 there would have been no consideration of toughening up the "deal" because it was "so close", I don't think we have to be so petty as to fail to recognise that almost half the voters were happy with DC's offering - happy enough to prefer it to leaving anyway.
So a lukewarm Leave is fair enough. If people want it to be more UKIPpy, they can vote UKIP.
Fervent Remainers are trying to provoke/suggest the harshest possible leave so they can shoot it down. People who lose like to take the gloss off the winners success, it is kids stuff. I wouldn't fall into their Batman villain style trap!
"We tried to be reasonable. We're always reasonable. But those bloody French and Germans... Cuh, eh, what are they like? Cut off their own nose to spite their face they would, every time. Well, fvck 'em, we're not coming to their rescue this time. They've made their own bed. Now they can bloody lie in. We're better off outofvit, I tell yer, and no mistake...."
"Quite right, your Majesty...."
Really, that’s their best offer? That’s the plan? To swagger into Brussels with Union Jack pants on and say: “ ’Ello luv, you’re looking nice today. Would you like some?”
When the rest of us ask how that’s really going to work, leavers reply, with Terry-Thomas smirks, that “they’re going to still really fancy us, honest, they’re gagging for us. Possibly not Merkel, but the bosses of Mercedes and those French vintners and cheesemakers, they can’t get enough of old John Bull. Of course they’re going to want to go on making the free market with two backs after we’ve got the decree nisi. Makes sense, doesn’t it?”
I read an article earlier today that predicted sterling would crash next March to less than parity with the dollar.
If accurate we can take strength from the brain's trust that put us there a representative sample of whom TSE has used to illustrate Alastair's fine header
CityUnslicker - why exactly would we agree to any deal on pensions without a trade deal. No deal will be done until everything is decided - anything else involves one side foolishly throwing away leverage.
You realise that the implication of this is that we won't leave, don't you?
WG - If no agreement is concluded within two years, that state's membership ends automatically, unless the European Council and the Member State concerned decide jointly to extend this period.
So the default is just a stark hard brexit with no alimony. The idea we'll sign up to continuing payments without quid pro quo on a trade relationship is for the birds.
I read an article earlier today that predicted sterling would crash next March to less than parity with the dollar.
If accurate we can take solace from the brain's trust that put us there a representative sample of whom TSE has used to illustrate Alastair's fine header
That's right, Rog, knock 'em dead with your pithy, sharp witted critique. Or just call them racist xenophobes.
@Speedy - there is a strong union presence in Copeland that was not there in Sleaford. It is centred on Sellafield, of course, so Labour's choice of candidate will be crucial. An anti-nuclear Corbynista is likely to get very little help. A pro-nuclear local union candidate may attract more practical support with things like get out the vote. It's still a tough ask for Labour, but with the right candidate it is a possible hold.
Nuclear power is very unpopular in the country, it's very frustrating that there are still some antiquated special interests that support such an unpractical expensive and risky form of energy.
@iainjwatson: Labour's election Supremo Jon Trickett says Copeland will be a difficult by election in a tough seat.The maj is 2500 but has always been Lab
I read an article earlier today that predicted sterling would crash next March to less than parity with the dollar.
If accurate we can take solace from the brain's trust that put us there a representative sample of whom TSE has used to illustrate Alastair's fine header
Speaking of which, I think you'll find it's 'brains trust'.
WG - If no agreement is concluded within two years, that state's membership ends automatically, unless the European Council and the Member State concerned decide jointly to extend this period.
Two questions remain unanswered:
- What are the constitutional requirements for the UK to invoke Article 50? - Is Article 50 unilaterally revocable?
The answers, in my view, are:
- Much more onerous than even the worst-case scenario currently envisaged. - Yes.
@TwistedFireStopper - Remain does not look like anything. It is not happening. However, there are many kinds of Out. There is Norway Out, Switzerland Out, Canada Out, China Out, North Korea Out and plenty in between. And they are all very different. What frustrates this Remainer (or, more accurately, this individual who voted Remain) is that the government seems to be dead set against any of us participating in the conversation about what option we should aim for and how we will get what we want.
You assume that more than one or two of those are even on the table. Its entirely possible for example that government back channel discussions have basically been told to piss off, and that the only deal on offer is the Rock Hard BrExit, and they are trying to figure out how to dress it up for the voters and more to the point, how to sell it to the City.
It's also possible that different people on the continent have different views.
The Germans want to keep selling us cars. The French want us to keep sending the EU money, and us to keep buying French wine. The Spanish and the Italians want British tourists to keep coming, etc.
Some people will say "no surrender", and some people will say - as the french Finance Minister or the Swedish Foreign Minister - "lets make a deal".
@Speedy Sellafield isn't going to suddenly close down. If the waste from the nuclear power stations isn't processed there, it will have to be shipped overseas. Corbyn can't afford to make silly gestures to gain a few votes.
but Sleaford & North Hykeham and Copeland have some important similarities. Both are predominantly rural, very white, voted by over 60% to Leave, and they are more or less on a par in terms of both median income and median age.
There are crucial differences between Sleaford and Copeland.
You can't get a more conservative area than rural Lincolnshire, while Copeland is a historically Labour area more reminiscent of the Welsh Valleys than Lincolnshire.
It could end up like the Ogmore by-election. And even in Sleaford the swing recorded would not have been enough for the Tories to gain Copeland.
Most instant assumptions might not work in marginals.
I take your point; however, Copeland is not nearly as deprived as the Welsh Valleys, and the Labour vote share has been in gentle but continuous decline there in every general election since '97 - and that's before Mr Corbyn arrived on the scene, of course. The contrast with Ogmore, retained with an absolute majority of all votes cast against a fragmented opposition, is clear. Last time, Labour held Copeland with a 6.5% lead over the Tories. The gap is eminently bridgeable.
I've assumed in my back-of-a-fag-packet calculations that the Tory vote share may go up a little, but they can, of course, still win the seat simply by hanging on to the share that they have. This doesn't even require any improvement from Ukip. If there's net churn of any more than 6.5% from Labour to the Lib Dems and Greens, and all else remains unchanged, then the seat is gone.
I think the narrative in Copeland will be one of pressure on the Tories to live up to their poll lead and win; on Ukip to show evidence of progress; and on Labour not to implode. This is not propitious territory for the Lib Dems and they were smashed there last time, so they get a free hit.
WG - assuming it is unilaterally revocable is a rather sad little Englander position given the treaty we've signed up to only references extension of the period as a joint agreement. There is another side involved in this discussion (i.e. the one you're rooting for).
As per the EU -
In this context, the question could be posed as to whether – once a Member State has notified the European Council of its intention to withdraw from the EU, and a withdrawal agreement has been negotiated – it can, depending on the results of the negotiations, unilaterally revoke its notification and suspend the withdrawal procedure. Most commentators argue that this is impossible or at least doubtful, from a legal point of view.
@TwistedFireStopper - Remain does not look like anything. It is not happening. However, there are many kinds of Out. There is Norway Out, Switzerland Out, Canada Out, China Out, North Korea Out and plenty in between. And they are all very different. What frustrates this Remainer (or, more accurately, this individual who voted Remain) is that the government seems to be dead set against any of us participating in the conversation about what option we should aim for and how we will get what we want.
You assume that more than one or two of those are even on the table. Its entirely possible for example that government back channel discussions have basically been told to piss off, and that the only deal on offer is the Rock Hard BrExit, and they are trying to figure out how to dress it up for the voters and more to the point, how to sell it to the City.
It's also possible that different people on the continent have different views.
The Germans want to keep selling us cars. The French want us to keep sending the EU money, and us to keep buying French wine. The Spanish and the Italians want British tourists to keep coming, etc.
Some people will say "no surrender", and some people will say - as the french Finance Minister or the Swedish Foreign Minister - "lets make a deal".
I hope the government didn't follow your advice of trying to negotiate a deal with Alain Juppe.... I'm afraid you're clutching at straws.
I read an article earlier today that predicted sterling would crash next March to less than parity with the dollar.
If accurate we can take solace from the brain's trust that put us there a representative sample of whom TSE has used to illustrate Alastair's fine header
That's right, Rog, knock 'em dead with your pithy, sharp witted critique. Or just call them racist xenophobes.
Rather undermined by the fact that the daft tit got his own apostrophes wrong in the very same comment.
I read an article earlier today that predicted sterling would crash next March to less than parity with the dollar.
If accurate we can take solace from the brain's trust that put us there a representative sample of whom TSE has used to illustrate Alastair's fine header
That's right, Rog, knock 'em dead with your pithy, sharp witted critique. Or just call them racist xenophobes.
Rather undermined by the fact that the daft tit got his own apostrophes wrong in the very same comment.
@Speedy Sellafield isn't going to suddenly close down. If the waste from the nuclear power stations isn't processed there, it will have to be shipped overseas. Corbyn can't afford to make silly gestures to gain a few votes.
Indeed, closing down all civilian nuclear power stations first before closing down the nuclear waste plant.
Although I'm in the belief that constituencies with nuclear power plants are places where opposition to nuclear power is greatest or larger than average. That is why the only place I favour nuclear power is in the PM's own constituency to see if she likes it.
but Sleaford & North Hykeham and Copeland have some important similarities. Both are predominantly rural, very white, voted by over 60% to Leave, and they are more or less on a par in terms of both median income and median age.
There are crucial differences between Sleaford and Copeland.
You can't get a more conservative area than rural Lincolnshire, while Copeland is a historically Labour area more reminiscent of the Welsh Valleys than Lincolnshire.
It could end up like the Ogmore by-election. And even in Sleaford the swing recorded would not have been enough for the Tories to gain Copeland.
Most instant assumptions might not work in marginals.
I take your point; however, Copeland is not nearly as deprived as the Welsh Valleys, and the Labour vote share has been in gentle but continuous decline there in every general election since '97 - and that's before Mr Corbyn arrived on the scene, of course. The contrast with Ogmore, retained with an absolute majority of all votes cast against a fragmented opposition, is clear. Last time, Labour held Copeland with a 6.5% lead over the Tories. The gap is eminently bridgeable.
I've assumed in my back-of-a-fag-packet calculations that the Tory vote share may go up a little, but they can, of course, still win the seat simply by hanging on to the share that they have. This doesn't even require any improvement from Ukip. If there's net churn of any more than 6.5% from Labour to the Lib Dems and Greens, and all else remains unchanged, then the seat is gone.
I think the narrative in Copeland will be one of pressure on the Tories to live up to their poll lead and win; on Ukip to show evidence of progress; and on Labour not to implode. This is not propitious territory for the Lib Dems and they were smashed there last time, so they get a free hit.
I agree with all of that: the most likely outcome is that a portion (say 5-6%) of the Labour vote ends up going to the LibDems, a similar proportion goes to UKIP, and then a big chunk stays home.
If there is one overrriding proof that LEAVE was the right vote, it is the revelation whereby vile europhiles like Meeks which have been shown for what they are. Sneering scum, and essentially traitors.
I saw on twitter last night that you've been reading up about something that I have direct recent personal knowledge about. If you can avoid calling me a traitor for the duration of a conversation, I'd be willing to let you quiz me on that subject.
If there is one overrriding proof that LEAVE was the right vote, it is the revelation whereby vile europhiles like Meeks which have been shown for what they are. Sneering scum, and essentially traitors.
Although I don't subscribe to your views about Meeks, I also believe that Leave was the right vote.
The messy situation in continental europe proves that everyday.
Lots of strawmen, and a dependence on the fact that Remainers think Leavers are racists and therefore Leavers need to accommodate that belief, no matter how wrong it is.
And perhaps it was written before the PM said she would set out her vision for the future early in the New Year, and well in advance of the triggering of Article 50?
Of course Leavers can regard Remainers' views about them as wrong. As I wrote in the thread header though, they need to think carefully about why Remainers have those views. And they can either suck their thumbs at the injustice of it all or seek to do something about changing those views. Since the referendum, Leavers have spent the last six months either polishing their jackboots or pretending that the referendum campaign never took place. That's not exactly rubbed balm into the wounds or changed opinions, as others on thread have noted.
If it is the settled view of Leavers that they don't need to make any effort to engage with Remainers that does at least give us clarity about where we head from here. It's a pretty bleak vision of a country that will remain divided for years to come.
The conversations are happening. Just not with you. Most people are less bitter and obsessed about it than you. The UK voters have made their decision; the government will negotiate a deal and we'll all move on with the rest of our lives.
I'm sure you'll shout and pout and call me a racist xenophobe. I know I'm not, and people who I care about know I'm not, and I couldn't give a monkey what you think to be frank.
Remainers may be A problem for the success of Brexit, but at least you know where you are with them. They think the whole project is misconceived and if they could see a way around it they would take it. THE problem however is Leavers, who are sabotaging their own project. Success doesn't come from blaming others, whether Remainers or the EU - that's just excusing failure, nor does it come a refusal to compromise. Success comes from signing up Remainers and the EU to the Brexit project so the latter are happy to make it succeed.
but Sleaford & North Hykeham and Copeland have some important similarities. Both are predominantly rural, very white, voted by over 60% to Leave, and they are more or less on a par in terms of both median income and median age.
There are crucial differences between Sleaford and Copeland.
You can't get a more conservative area than rural Lincolnshire, while Copeland is a historically Labour area more reminiscent of the Welsh Valleys than Lincolnshire.
It could end up like the Ogmore by-election. And even in Sleaford the swing recorded would not have been enough for the Tories to gain Copeland.
Most instant assumptions might not work in marginals.
I take your point; however, Copeland is not nearly as deprived as the Welsh Valleys, and the Labour vote share has been in gentle but continuous decline there in every general election since '97 - and that's before Mr Corbyn arrived on the scene, of course. The contrast with Ogmore, retained with an absolute majority of all votes cast against a fragmented opposition, is clear. Last time, Labour held Copeland with a 6.5% lead over the Tories. The gap is eminently bridgeable.
I've assumed in my back-of-a-fag-packet calculations that the Tory vote share may go up a little, but they can, of course, still win the seat simply by hanging on to the share that they have. This doesn't even require any improvement from Ukip. If there's net churn of any more than 6.5% from Labour to the Lib Dems and Greens, and all else remains unchanged, then the seat is gone.
I think the narrative in Copeland will be one of pressure on the Tories to live up to their poll lead and win; on Ukip to show evidence of progress; and on Labour not to implode. This is not propitious territory for the Lib Dems and they were smashed there last time, so they get a free hit.
I agree with all of that: the most likely outcome is that a portion (say 5-6%) of the Labour vote ends up going to the LibDems, a similar proportion goes to UKIP, and then a big chunk stays home.
The Tories should win this.
Which, it seems, would be almost unprecedented in modern times.
Comments
The winners should deal with the victory !
Unfortunately for all of us, she can't deliver a deal that does the best for the UK economically without upsetting the Tory right. She can't deliver one that clamps down on immigration without upsetting the centre. She has clearly decided that the right will cause her more trouble than the centre so is - rhetorically, at least - leaning towards hard Brexit.
I think plenty of Leavers would welcome Remainer input. But this seems to be a Tory and UKIP game, just as it was during the referendum, Mrs May shows no interest whatsoever in expanding the conversation and Jeremy Corbyn shows very little interest in persuading her to do so.
I pity Germany. Our own migration system is far from adequate and we have serious integration problems, but Merkel's approach has meant 2% or so of Germany's population has arrived there in the last couple of years. That's just not sound.
On the other hand, what does "Remain" look like? Where does remain go from here? You want full unfettered immigration so yer kids can go for a skinny soya latte in Paris? You want the Euro? Full on Federalisation? Maybe you want it as it was before June 23rd? A sort of half bastard in/out, unhappy mess?
It's chaos. I'm looking forward to it!
No, we really haven't. We have partied like a bastard, and enjoyed the Remainers going very publically mad.
Speak for yourself. I love nothing more than inserting a monocle, putting on my Iron Cross, and switching on a record of German Freikorps marching songs, when I go home in the evening.
https://twitter.com/donmoyn/status/810895497837871104
grrr.
I think we're chasing the same cash.
I've been fishing for 1000
Are these not among the Remainers that Leave should be trying to win over?
As I noted on yesterday's thread, according to that YouGov poll 43% of Remainers thought that immigration was the main reason for a Leave vote and a further 36% cited racism, xenophobia, stupidity, ignorance and misinformation. Just 8% of Remainers thought a Leave vote was about sovereignty.
You seem to be deluding yourself that there is a vast cohort of Remain voters who are on the point of having the scales fall from their eyes. There aren't. Most of them have spent the last six months having every preconception about Leave supporters reconfirmed over and over again. This is not a division that is healing. Quite the opposite.
Copeland experienced turnout lower than the national average in both the referendum and the general election, but only by about 3%, so my guess (for one can do no more than that, of course) is that turnout will be somewhere in the low 40s. A bit better than Sleaford, due to the fact that this should be viewed as a more competitive contest. My opening guess at the eventual result is therefore:
Con 10,500
Lab 7,000
Ukip 4,500
LD 3,000
Green 1,000
(This will undoubtedly come back to bite me on the arse when Eddie Izzard wins the by-election with about 70% of all votes cast. No reason to suppose that 2017 will contain any fewer surprises than 2016!)
Mr. Indigo, some might say the barbarophobes are the ones who dislike foreigners. Xenophobes are just those who dislike their fellow countrymen. (In Greek, xenos referred to 'foreign' Greeks from another city. Barbaros referred to non-Greeks).
As a lawyer, you seem to have missed entirely what is going on. As do most of the media and the Government. The EU have made it quite clear they will only have the resources to negotiate the exit agreement of article 50 first. Then, when that is finished they will start on any future trade deal. The EU expect the withdrawal document to take 2 years as it will be very contentious re EU pensions etc.
After 2 years the 5-7 year negotiation for a new treaty can start. This is when some of the points you make become valid. However, at this point we are out of the EU and on WTO terms in all likelihood and will be making the best of it. From there we have choices about what to do next, but in my world for example, everyone will just be getting on with figuring out the simplest way to get around passporting either into or out of the UK.
This is what people like to call 'Hard Brexit.' Handily, it is also what was voted for. The 2020 election will though be very exciting as it is held in the middle of this crisis - and much to your eternal annoyance, the Govt will likely prevail with a bigger majority having had (or rather, been forced to) to go full Brexit anyway.
All the EU ministers and panjarams have ruled out any transitional arrangements already; anything you hear or read about this is for the birds.
You can't get a more conservative area than rural Lincolnshire, while Copeland is a historically Labour area more reminiscent of the Welsh Valleys than Lincolnshire.
It could end up like the Ogmore by-election.
And even in Sleaford the swing recorded would not have been enough for the Tories to gain Copeland.
Most instant assumptions might not work in marginals.
Full on Federalisation Islamic State? Well, the EU is going the right....
Oh.
Always on the wrong side of events.
Wonder how many more like him are on the loose?
https://youtu.be/YKeYbEOSqYc
Rock Hard BrExit is an easy sell.
"We tried to be reasonable. We're always reasonable. But those bloody French and Germans... Cuh, eh, what are they like? Cut off their own nose to spite their face they would, every time. Well, fvck 'em, we're not coming to their rescue this time. They've made their own bed. Now they can bloody lie in. We're better off outofvit, I tell yer, and no mistake...."
"Quite right, your Majesty...."
So a lukewarm Leave is fair enough. If people want it to be more UKIPpy, they can vote UKIP.
Fervent Remainers are trying to provoke/suggest the harshest possible leave so they can shoot it down. People who lose like to take the gloss off the winners success, it is kids stuff. I wouldn't fall into their Batman villain style trap!
Really, that’s their best offer? That’s the plan? To swagger into Brussels with Union Jack pants on and say: “ ’Ello luv, you’re looking nice today. Would you like some?”
When the rest of us ask how that’s really going to work, leavers reply, with Terry-Thomas smirks, that “they’re going to still really fancy us, honest, they’re gagging for us. Possibly not Merkel, but the bosses of Mercedes and those French vintners and cheesemakers, they can’t get enough of old John Bull. Of course they’re going to want to go on making the free market with two backs after we’ve got the decree nisi. Makes sense, doesn’t it?”
If accurate we can take strength from the brain's trust that put us there a representative sample of whom TSE has used to illustrate Alastair's fine header
Agent of Evil
Marine A: Sgt Alexander Blackman refused Christmas bail over #Taliban murder conviction appeal https://t.co/JQQle72eto
So the default is just a stark hard brexit with no alimony. The idea we'll sign up to continuing payments without quid pro quo on a trade relationship is for the birds.
- What are the constitutional requirements for the UK to invoke Article 50?
- Is Article 50 unilaterally revocable?
The answers, in my view, are:
- Much more onerous than even the worst-case scenario currently envisaged.
- Yes.
The Germans want to keep selling us cars.
The French want us to keep sending the EU money, and us to keep buying French wine.
The Spanish and the Italians want British tourists to keep coming, etc.
Some people will say "no surrender", and some people will say - as the french Finance Minister or the Swedish Foreign Minister - "lets make a deal".
December 21, 1968: Launch of Apollo 8 the first human spaceflight to leave Earth orbit and go to Moon. https://t.co/NC0qzgPNOB
Great video
I've assumed in my back-of-a-fag-packet calculations that the Tory vote share may go up a little, but they can, of course, still win the seat simply by hanging on to the share that they have. This doesn't even require any improvement from Ukip. If there's net churn of any more than 6.5% from Labour to the Lib Dems and Greens, and all else remains unchanged, then the seat is gone.
I think the narrative in Copeland will be one of pressure on the Tories to live up to their poll lead and win; on Ukip to show evidence of progress; and on Labour not to implode. This is not propitious territory for the Lib Dems and they were smashed there last time, so they get a free hit.
As per the EU -
In this context, the question could be posed as to whether – once
a Member State has notified the European Council of its intention to withdraw from the EU, and
a withdrawal agreement has been negotiated – it can, depending on the results of the
negotiations, unilaterally revoke its notification and suspend the withdrawal procedure. Most
commentators argue that this is impossible or at least doubtful, from a legal point of view.
"That's right, Rog, knock 'em dead with your pithy, sharp witted critique. Or just call them racist xenophobes."
"Racist xenophobes" flatters them. Fu*king morons is more accurate.
Although I'm in the belief that constituencies with nuclear power plants are places where opposition to nuclear power is greatest or larger than average.
That is why the only place I favour nuclear power is in the PM's own constituency to see if she likes it.
The Tories should win this.
The messy situation in continental europe proves that everyday.
Die Hard is on Netflix if you missed it on ITV the other day
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9vN6DHB6bJc
Yep. It's all about the kind of Brexit we seek and get now.
I'm sure you'll shout and pout and call me a racist xenophobe. I know I'm not, and people who I care about know I'm not, and I couldn't give a monkey what you think to be frank.
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/811571638177251329