WG - assuming it is unilaterally revocable is a rather sad little Englander position given the treaty we've signed up to only references extension of the period as a joint agreement. There is another side involved in this discussion (i.e. the one you're rooting for).
As per the EU -
In this context, the question could be posed as to whether – once a Member State has notified the European Council of its intention to withdraw from the EU, and a withdrawal agreement has been negotiated – it can, depending on the results of the negotiations, unilaterally revoke its notification and suspend the withdrawal procedure. Most commentators argue that this is impossible or at least doubtful, from a legal point of view.
Revocability is obscure - the treaty does not mention it one way or the other. Only the ECJ can provide clarification - and I understand there are moves to bring a case for this purpose.
If there is one overrriding proof that LEAVE was the right vote, it is the revelation whereby vile europhiles like Meeks which have been shown for what they are. Sneering scum, and essentially traitors.
Although I don't subscribe to your views about Meeks, I also believe that Leave was the right vote.
The messy situation in continental europe proves that everyday.
After considerable doubt, until the morning of the Referendum, I decided to vote Remain, simply on the grounds that being comfortably off and content with life I should vote in my perceived best interests. Ideally the democratic process would be served if everyone else did the same.
I was surprised and disappointed that the majority of my compatriots found themselves on the other side of the equation, but if they are seriously discontented they are entitled to express the fact. We will all have to live with the consequences.
Neither Leave nor Remain were "right" or "wrong". People voted for continuity or change depending on their circumstances. If the majority of voters have demanded radical change it indicates accumulated failure by successive governments going back years or even decades. Whether anyone will eventually benefit from the massive changes being decided on remains to be seen. That's how history works,
but Sleaford & North Hykeham and Copeland have some important similarities. Both are predominantly rural, very white, voted by over 60% to Leave, and they are more or less on a par in terms of both median income and median age.
There are crucial differences between Sleaford and Copeland.
You can't get a more conservative area than rural Lincolnshire, while Copeland is a historically Labour area more reminiscent of the Welsh Valleys than Lincolnshire.
It could end up like the Ogmore by-election. And even in Sleaford the swing recorded would not have been enough for the Tories to gain Copeland.
Most instant assumptions might not work in marginals.
I take your point; however, Copeland is not nearly as deprived as the Welsh Valleys, and the Labour vote share has been in gentle but continuous decline there in every general election since '97 - and that's before Mr Corbyn arrived on the scene, of course. The contrast with Ogmore, retained with an absolute majority of all votes cast against a fragmented opposition, is clear. Last time, Labour held Copeland with a 6.5% lead over the Tories. The gap is eminently bridgeable.
I've assumed in my back-of-a-fag-packet calculations that the Tory vote share may go up a little, but they can, of course, still win the seat simply by hanging on to the share that they have. This doesn't even require any improvement from Ukip. If there's net churn of any more than 6.5% from Labour to the Lib Dems and Greens, and all else remains unchanged, then the seat is gone.
I think the narrative in Copeland will be one of pressure on the Tories to live up to their poll lead and win; on Ukip to show evidence of progress; and on Labour not to implode. This is not propitious territory for the Lib Dems and they were smashed there last time, so they get a free hit.
I agree with all of that: the most likely outcome is that a portion (say 5-6%) of the Labour vote ends up going to the LibDems, a similar proportion goes to UKIP, and then a big chunk stays home.
The Tories should win this.
Which, it seems, would be almost unprecedented in modern times.
CityUnslicker - why exactly would we agree to any deal on pensions without a trade deal. No deal will be done until everything is decided - anything else involves one side foolishly throwing away leverage. We may leave without agreement in 2 years, but that wouldn't involve paying a penny for continuing liabilities unless so agreed. (whilst we're at it, why do the requests for funding of continuing liabilities never get round to discussing the continuing assets we helped pay for?)
It is essentially impossible for us to leave without an agreement with the EU. To take just one showstopper - EASA, the EU body that certifies our aviation. If we leave without agreement, which in practice means staying in the EASA because we don't have the facilities to do the certification ourselves, our aviation will be grounded.
Do I see a problem about remaining in the EASA and similar bodies? No. Does the EU hold all the cards? No, although the way we are going about negotiations is reducing our hand very significantly. Is the EU in the stronger negotiating position? Absolutely it is. We need to be realistic about that.
The real problem with Alastair's analysis (and many others, to be fair) is that the referendum was a binary choice for a non-binary 'problem'. There is no such thing as 'leavers' or 'remainers', there are individuals and groups with a whole range of objectives and even people voting the same way (on both sides) have contradictory motivations and goals. Maybe it's a failing of those with a legal training that they see everything as win/lose, but it simply won't work here. Whatever happens ultimately, there will be leavers who'll be dissatisfied and remainers who'll be glad it wasn't worse.
If there is one overrriding proof that LEAVE was the right vote, it is the revelation whereby vile europhiles like Meeks which have been shown for what they are. Sneering scum, and essentially traitors.
I saw on twitter last night that you've been reading up about something that I have direct recent personal knowledge about. If you can avoid calling me a traitor for the duration of a conversation, I'd be willing to let you quiz me on that subject.
Hmmm.
I'd like to indulge, you, but....
You don't get away with implying, or indeed directly alleging, that I am a supporter of racist or Fascist murder, simply by exercising my preference for sovereign government, and the return of proper democracy to my nation's ancient parliament.
YOU DON'T GET TO DO THAT
Withdraw this imputation. Otherwise: meh
It was an offer primarily for your benefit.
I neither implied nor alleged that you were a supporter of racist or fascist murder. I noted that some Leave politicians - one specifically, actually - had made it his life's work to foment fear of foreigners in the pursuit of one policy objective. In the climate that he had helped engender it is unsurprising that a man with still more extreme views should feel that violent action was legitimated. He was not alone - we saw a sharp rise in hate crimes after Brexit.
You've written endless posts about how in your view Muslims have not done enough to disavow the actions of Islamist terrorists. I'm sure you can see the parallels. I'm sure that, like most Muslims, you don't approve of murder.
Perhaps Leavers can consider how they might rein in their nuttier fellow travellers. That's one thing that they could take control of but so far have failed to do.
Lots of strawmen, and a dependence on the fact that Remainers think Leavers are racists and therefore Leavers need to accommodate that belief, no matter how wrong it is.
And perhaps it was written before the PM said she would set out her vision for the future early in the New Year, and well in advance of the triggering of Article 50?
Of course Leavers can regard Remainers' views about them as wrong. As I wrote in the thread header though, they need to think carefully about why Remainers have those views. And they can either suck their thumbs at the injustice of it all or seek to do something about changing those views. Since the referendum, Leavers have spent the last six months either polishing their jackboots or pretending that the referendum campaign never took place. That's not exactly rubbed balm into the wounds or changed opinions, as others on thread have noted.
If it is the settled view of Leavers that they don't need to make any effort to engage with Remainers that does at least give us clarity about where we head from here. It's a pretty bleak vision of a country that will remain divided for years to come.
The conversations are happening. Just not with you. Most people are less bitter and obsessed about it than you. The UK voters have made their decision; the government will negotiate a deal and we'll all move on with the rest of our lives.
I'm sure you'll shout and pout and call me a racist xenophobe. I know I'm not, and people who I care about know I'm not, and I couldn't give a monkey what you think to be frank.
I made my view of Mr Meeks known several years back.
He squeals about climate change and said he'd voted Green - and regularly flies to his third home in Hungary and had an avatar of his heated swimming pool for a while.
He doesn't think rural dwellers have any value and should all move to cities if we want any public services - we've no need for agriculture as we could import all our food too.
If I hadn't seen his witless and snobbish attitude thousands of times on here - I'd presume he was a troll. However, he's really like this. He exists and believes he and people like him should be in charge of our nation.
"By the way, The terms "Remainer" and "Leaver" are redundant. We really are all Leavers now"
Yep. It's all about the kind of Brexit we seek and get now.
Calling people racist idiots might make Remainers feel better by venting their anger, but it is getting them nowhere. We could end up with hard Brexit by default if there's not some dialogue between the two camps, and I'm fairly sure that most Remainers (apart from the die-hards dreaming of catastrophe) do not want that.
I believe that there is bound to be a form of leaving the EU that can make most of the people content if not ecstatically happy, but we won't get it the way things are going. Six months is plenty of time to adjust to the result. I hope 2017 sees all sides putting their thinking caps on and getting to work on bringing home the best possible result.
The real problem with Alastair's analysis (and many others, to be fair) is that the referendum was a binary choice for a non-binary 'problem'. There is no such thing as 'leavers' or 'remainers', there are individuals and groups with a whole range of objectives and even people voting the same way (on both sides) have contradictory motivations and goals. Maybe it's a failing of those with a legal training that they see everything as win/lose, but it simply won't work here. Whatever happens ultimately, there will be leavers who'll be dissatisfied and remainers who'll be glad it wasn't worse.
However, if you look at polling people's attitudes are very divided according to how they voted. So you may get a result saying 46% of those polled think Brexit will have not have an adverse economic effect. Drill down and you will see that almost Leave voters think Brexit will have not have an adverse economic effect. Almost all Remain voters think it will.
"By the way, The terms "Remainer" and "Leaver" are redundant. We really are all Leavers now"
Yep. It's all about the kind of Brexit we seek and get now.
Calling people racist idiots might make Remainers feel better by venting their anger, but it is getting them nowhere. We could end up with hard Brexit by default if there's not some dialogue between the two camps, and I'm fairly sure that most Remainers (apart from the die-hards dreaming of catastrophe) do not want that.
I believe that there is bound to be a form of leaving the EU that can make most of the people content if not ecstatically happy, but we won't get it the way things are going. Six months is plenty of time to adjust to the result. I hope 2017 sees all sides putting their thinking caps on and getting to work on bringing home the best possible result.
I put up a thread yesterday about what Remainers should do next. This is the companion thread.
Leavers have squealed like stuck pigs. But I haven't seen a single sensible suggestion from any of them about how the dialogue between the two camps should be started.
but Sleaford & North Hykeham and Copeland have some important similarities. Both are predominantly rural, very white, voted by over 60% to Leave, and they are more or less on a par in terms of both median income and median age.
There are crucial differences between Sleaford and Copeland.
You can't get a more conservative area than rural Lincolnshire, while Copeland is a historically Labour area more reminiscent of the Welsh Valleys than Lincolnshire.
It could end up like the Ogmore by-election. And even in Sleaford the swing recorded would not have been enough for the Tories to gain Copeland.
Most instant assumptions might not work in marginals.
I take your point; however, Copeland is not nearly as deprived as the Welsh Valleys, and the Labour vote share has been in gentle but continuous decline there in every general election since '97 - and that's before Mr Corbyn arrived on the scene, of course. The contrast with Ogmore, retained with an absolute majority of all votes cast against a fragmented opposition, is clear. Last time, Labour held Copeland with a 6.5% lead over the Tories. The gap is eminently bridgeable.
I've assumed in my back-of-a-fag-packet calculations that the Tory vote share may go up a little, but they can, of course, still win the seat simply by hanging on to the share that they have. This doesn't even require any improvement from Ukip. If there's net churn of any more than 6.5% from Labour to the Lib Dems and Greens, and all else remains unchanged, then the seat is gone.
I think the narrative in Copeland will be one of pressure on the Tories to live up to their poll lead and win; on Ukip to show evidence of progress; and on Labour not to implode. This is not propitious territory for the Lib Dems and they were smashed there last time, so they get a free hit.
I agree with all of that: the most likely outcome is that a portion (say 5-6%) of the Labour vote ends up going to the LibDems, a similar proportion goes to UKIP, and then a big chunk stays home.
The Tories should win this.
Which, it seems, would be almost unprecedented in modern times.
I wonder if anyone will say May is a disaster if they don't win though, despite this information?
Probably a handful of exultant Corbynites and very committed Europhiles, but generally speaking no - although I think that the Tories will be very disappointed in private if they don't win, whatever the public spin happens to be.
CityUnslicker - why exactly would we agree to any deal on pensions without a trade deal. No deal will be done until everything is decided - anything else involves one side foolishly throwing away leverage. We may leave without agreement in 2 years, but that wouldn't involve paying a penny for continuing liabilities unless so agreed. (whilst we're at it, why do the requests for funding of continuing liabilities never get round to discussing the continuing assets we helped pay for?)
It is essentially impossible for us to leave without an agreement with the EU. To take just one showstopper - EASA, the EU body that certifies our aviation. If we leave without agreement, which in practice means staying in the EASA because we don't have the facilities to do the certification ourselves, our aviation will be grounded.
Do I see a problem about remaining in the EASA and similar bodies? No. Does the EU hold all the cards? No, although the way we are going about negotiations is reducing our hand very significantly. Is the EU in the stronger negotiating position? Absolutely it is. We need to be realistic about that.
PS. Which means we'll pay the €60 billion. There will be a lot of huffing and puffing, maybe pretend to send it arbitration or disguise the payments as something else. Theresa May all but confirmed it when she said, "That [€60 billion] figure does not actually exist. It is one of a range of issues that will have to be dealt with. The outcome of those negotiations will be something for the future."
@Alistair Meeks, there are some Remain voters who are very unhappy with mass migration.
As to the rest, the evidence suggests that plenty of Conservatives who supported Remain have reconciled themselves to Brexit. They include the PM, Chancellor, and Home Secretary.
The conversation between Remainers and Leavers that Meeks is banging on about is already happening in government, which is the right place for it now. May and Hammond were Remainers and Boris, Davis etc Leavers. We should leave them to get on with it and do the job rather than sneering from the sidelines and creating bogus fault lines. What will Meeks do when the war is over?
With all the criticism from some on here of the Lib Dems expectation management at Richmond Park , it will be interesting how the Conservatives manage theirs in Copeland .
The Tories have led by at least 6% in every nation VI poll taken since May became Prime Minister. Their mean lead over that period has, of course, been significantly greater.
PS. Which means we'll pay the €60 billion. There will be a lot of huffing and puffing, maybe pretend to send it arbitration or disguise the payments as something else. Theresa May all but confirmed it when she said, "That [€60 billion] figure does not actually exist. It is one of a range of issues that will have to be dealt with. The outcome of those negotiations will be something for the future."
It won't actually be a lump sum though will it? Surely it will be a contribution that tapers away to a relatively modest sum in the years ahead. Providing we start off with some net saving I don't see why it should be politically difficult. I think most people will understand that their are certain things that we are honour bound to pay for even once we've left the EU.
The conversation between Remainers and Leavers that Meeks is banging on about is already happening in government, which is the right place for it now. May and Hammond were Remainers and Boris, Davis etc Leavers. We should leave them to get on with it and do the job rather than sneering from the sidelines and creating bogus fault lines. What will Meeks do when the war is over?
Yeah for all the talk about the Three Musketeers being trouble there doesn't seem to be too much happening. Given the circumstances the government is performing quite well. Even Boris — who is a gaffe prone as a politician can get whilst living to fight another day — seems to be doing alright in his job.
With all the criticism from some on here of the Lib Dems expectation management at Richmond Park , it will be interesting how the Conservatives manage theirs in Copeland .
Clearly with Corbyn in charge, the Tories are expected to win handsomely. PBTories have been telling us for months.
I've taken the 5/4 on the Tories in Copeland. One thing that concerns me a little bit, however, is that Labour won this seat in 1983. I suppose this is a by election so turnout will be lower which should favour the Tories.
How incredible is it that a pretty young Mother, who was a committed Remainer, was brutally murdered by an ardent Leaver.. and Leave still won?!!!
Really amazing how strong the nations Euroscepticism was.
It would be like Remain winning after a Romanian beggar murdering Boris Johnson
Leave won by over TEN points (excl London/Scotland).
I'd wager that a significant number of Remain voters in Scotland saw it as a way of trying to force Sindy, while many Londoners feel little or no affiliation to the UK (Yougov had a survey where the lack of Britishness/Englishness was sky high).
If May gets a deal done as she wishes on existing expat/migrant status early on, a considerable proportion of Remainers will see their major concern dealt with.
but Sleaford & North Hykeham and Copeland have some important similarities. Both are predominantly rural, very white, voted by over 60% to Leave, and they are more or less on a par in terms of both median income and median age.
There are crucial differences between Sleaford and Copeland.
You can't get a more conservative area than rural Lincolnshire, while Copeland is a historically Labour area more reminiscent of the Welsh Valleys than Lincolnshire.
It could end up like the Ogmore by-election. And even in Sleaford the swing recorded would not have been enough for the Tories to gain Copeland.
Most instant assumptions might not work in marginals.
I take your point; however, Copeland is not nearly as deprived as the Welsh Valleys, and the Labour vote share has been in gentle but continuous decline there in every general election since '97 - and that's before Mr Corbyn arrived on the scene, of course. The contrast with Ogmore, retained with an absolute majority of all votes cast against a fragmented opposition, is clear. Last time, Labour held Copeland with a 6.5% lead over the Tories. The gap is eminently bridgeable.
I've assumed in my back-of-a-fag-packet calculations that the Tory vote share may go up a little, but they can, of course, still win the seat simply by hanging on to the share that they have. This doesn't even require any improvement from Ukip. If there's net churn of any more than 6.5% from Labour to the Lib Dems and Greens, and all else remains unchanged, then the seat is gone.
I think the narrative in Copeland will be one of pressure on the Tories to live up to their poll lead and win; on Ukip to show evidence of progress; and on Labour not to implode. This is not propitious territory for the Lib Dems and they were smashed there last time, so they get a free hit.
I agree with all of that: the most likely outcome is that a portion (say 5-6%) of the Labour vote ends up going to the LibDems, a similar proportion goes to UKIP, and then a big chunk stays home.
The Tories should win this.
Which, it seems, would be almost unprecedented in modern times.
Maarsh - the exit agreement is the terms of the divorce. The trade agreement is the new relationship. They are entirely different in law and in action. @also indigo has the measure of it below.
What does the EU give us in return for 50bn?
If they threaten to stop paying pensions to Messrs Clegg, Kinnock and Mandelson that's fine by me
but Sleaford & North Hykeham and Copeland have some important similarities. Both are predominantly rural, very white, voted by over 60% to Leave, and they are more or less on a par in terms of both median income and median age.
There are crucial differences between Sleaford and Copeland.
You can't get a more conservative area than rural Lincolnshire, while Copeland is a historically Labour area more reminiscent of the Welsh Valleys than Lincolnshire.
It could end up like the Ogmore by-election. And even in Sleaford the swing recorded would not have been enough for the Tories to gain Copeland.
Most instant assumptions might not work in marginals.
I take your point; however, Copeland is not nearly as deprived as the Welsh Valleys, and the Labour vote share has been in gentle but continuous decline there in every general election since '97 - and that's before Mr Corbyn arrived on the scene, of course. The contrast with Ogmore, retained with an absolute majority of all votes cast against a fragmented opposition, is clear. Last time, Labour held Copeland with a 6.5% lead over the Tories. The gap is eminently bridgeable.
I've assumed in my back-of-a-fag-packet calculations that the Tory vote share may go up a little, but they can, of course, still win the seat simply by hanging on to the share that they have. This doesn't even require any improvement from Ukip. If there's net churn of any more than 6.5% from Labour to the Lib Dems and Greens, and all else remains unchanged, then the seat is gone.
I think the narrative in Copeland will be one of pressure on the Tories to live up to their poll lead and win; on Ukip to show evidence of progress; and on Labour not to implode. This is not propitious territory for the Lib Dems and they were smashed there last time, so they get a free hit.
I agree with all of that: the most likely outcome is that a portion (say 5-6%) of the Labour vote ends up going to the LibDems, a similar proportion goes to UKIP, and then a big chunk stays home.
The Tories should win this.
Which, it seems, would be almost unprecedented in modern times.
Edmund Burke said that "I do not know the method of drawing up an indictment against a whole people", and it would be great if remainers would stop thinking that drawing up an indictment against 52% of a people is any easier. The H of C has a rule against imputing motive. It is an excellent rule and one which remainers should impose upon themselves.
Edmund Burke said that "I do not know the method of drawing up an indictment against a whole people", and it would be great if remainers would stop thinking that drawing up an indictment against 52% of a people is any easier. The H of C has a rule against imputing motive. It is an excellent rule and one which remainers should impose upon themselves.
"A Populus poll found that 48% of the population would consider supporting a new anti-immigration party committed to challenging Islamist extremism, and would support policies to make it statutory for all public buildings to fly the flag of St George or the union flag.
Anti-fascist groups said the poll's findings challenged the belief that Britons were more tolerant than other Europeans. "This is not because British people are more moderate, but simply because their views have not found a political articulation," said a report by the Searchlight Educational Trust, the anti-fascist charity that commissioned the poll.
According to the survey, 39% of Asian Britons, 34% of white Britons and 21% of black Britons wanted all immigration into the UK to be stopped permanently, or at least until the economy improved. And 43% of Asian Britons, 63% of white Britons and 17% of black Britons agreed with the statement that "immigration into Britain has been a bad thing for the country". Just over half of respondents – 52% – agreed with the proposition that "Muslims create problems in the UK"
The conversation between Remainers and Leavers that Meeks is banging on about is already happening in government, which is the right place for it now. May and Hammond were Remainers and Boris, Davis etc Leavers. We should leave them to get on with it and do the job rather than sneering from the sidelines and creating bogus fault lines. What will Meeks do when the war is over?
Yeah for all the talk about the Three Musketeers being trouble there doesn't seem to be too much happening. Given the circumstances the government is performing quite well. Even Boris — who is a gaffe prone as a politician can get whilst living to fight another day — seems to be doing alright in his job.
Isn't that because David Davis has rapidly realised the complexity of the task, while Boris has been effectively side-lined?
I read an article earlier today that predicted sterling would crash next March to less than parity with the dollar.
If accurate we can take strength from the brain's trust that put us there a representative sample of whom TSE has used to illustrate Alastair's fine header
A. Where. There's some difference between, let's say, The Economist and Zerohedge. The US is ahead of us in the IR cycle as well; and
B. The more interesting movement is in my opinion vs EUR as that more directly reflects exit negotiations. What did that article opine on that?
Maarsh - the exit agreement is the terms of the divorce. The trade agreement is the new relationship. They are entirely different in law and in action. @also indigo has the measure of it below.
What does the EU give us in return for 50bn?
If they threaten to stop paying pensions to Messrs Clegg, Kinnock and Mandelson that's fine by me
On a similar theme:
Danish Finance Minister Kristian Jensen told Bloomberg in an interview, “The EU cannot continue spending the same amount of money when one of the largest countries, one of the largest contributors [to the EU budget], leaves.” He singled out the “enormous sums” allocated for farm subsidies as one of the EU budget items likely to be cut down after Brexit.
Their internal negotiation will probably be more fraught than the bilateral UK/EU one.
"As I wrote in the thread header though, they need to think carefully about why Remainers have those views."
We need to think carefully? Hmm ... You're not traitors, I'm sure you're personally very amiable, but you, and some others come over as ... snobs. A very old-fashioned word but very accurate. You believe you are better in all ways. More intelligent, more insightful and more worthy. It must be irritating to have only one vote, the same as the knuckle-dragging Neanderthals up north.
I have some sympathy - it must be a devastating feeling to have your future decided by such idiots.
Hmm ... but then again, it may be a human fault, but it remains a fault.
"By the way, The terms "Remainer" and "Leaver" are redundant. We really are all Leavers now"
Yep. It's all about the kind of Brexit we seek and get now.
Calling people racist idiots might make Remainers feel better by venting their anger, but it is getting them nowhere. We could end up with hard Brexit by default if there's not some dialogue between the two camps, and I'm fairly sure that most Remainers (apart from the die-hards dreaming of catastrophe) do not want that.
I believe that there is bound to be a form of leaving the EU that can make most of the people content if not ecstatically happy, but we won't get it the way things are going. Six months is plenty of time to adjust to the result. I hope 2017 sees all sides putting their thinking caps on and getting to work on bringing home the best possible result.
I put up a thread yesterday about what Remainers should do next. This is the companion thread.
Leavers have squealed like stuck pigs. But I haven't seen a single sensible suggestion from any of them about how the dialogue between the two camps should be started.
No one has squealed, just pointed out you a wrong.
But a dull, one-sides header doesn't provoke stimulating debate. So meh.
Evening all. I wonder if the resignation of Jamie Reed is just the tip of the Iceberg amongst the Parliamentary Labour Party. Many Labour MP's who have been elected to Parliament who have careers and opportunities outside of parliament must be tempted to follow the same path. The membership has changed beyond all recognition, the right/moderates are not able to wrestle back power in the parties internal structures, the leadership challenge failed, the unions are in a left wing fantasyland and the leadership is unable/unwilling to utilise the abundant talent within the party. In such a situation what are you in Parliament to do? Your options are kowtowing to the leader or what? If I was in their position I would certainly want out. Sitting around in Parliament in a zombie party is a safe well paid job with lots of perks but if you have other options you are going to think about pursuing them.
"By the way, The terms "Remainer" and "Leaver" are redundant. We really are all Leavers now"
Yep. It's all about the kind of Brexit we seek and get now.
Calling people racist idiots might make Remainers feel better by venting their anger, but it is getting them nowhere. We could end up with hard Brexit by default if there's not some dialogue between the two camps, and I'm fairly sure that most Remainers (apart from the die-hards dreaming of catastrophe) do not want that.
I believe that there is bound to be a form of leaving the EU that can make most of the people content if not ecstatically happy, but we won't get it the way things are going. Six months is plenty of time to adjust to the result. I hope 2017 sees all sides putting their thinking caps on and getting to work on bringing home the best possible result.
I put up a thread yesterday about what Remainers should do next. This is the companion thread.
Leavers have squealed like stuck pigs. But I haven't seen a single sensible suggestion from any of them about how the dialogue between the two camps should be started.
I attempted to answer a few of the questions in the header in a couple of - what I thought were honest and considered - posts downthread.
Unfortunately, there was no engagement by any Remain supporters on them.
David Cameron took the honourable position to resign as prime minister and member of parliament after the referendum was lost.Historians will judge him as one of the worst PMs since the second world war with no successful legacy to write about.I am sure is now happier going back to his grouse shooting instead of trying to hide his real passions due to PR purposes and trying to convince voters that he was authentic.
David Cameron is a decent man who managed to win a majority for the Conservative party on the back of his own personal popularity (which, lest we forget far exceeded that of his party in 2015) something they hadn't done for 18 years, he was then stabbed in the back. repeatedly by members of his own party within months of gaining said election victory.
I suspect that like many of us either in or supporters of the Tory party , who are able to function without some bizarre penchant for relating every piece of news good or bad to Europe, he considered the EU to be crap and irritating but that the alternative might be worse, certainly in the short term and on the balance of probabilities not worth risking. Looking at the current situation I would suggest he's likely to be proved right, particularly bearing in mind the negotiating talent we have representing us.
I think many of the more fanatical Brexiteers in the Tory party are currently so consumed with hubris that they believe their wing of the party is popular and will rule evermore to the sounds of the cheering population. It's not.
There are many Leave voters who will NEVER vote Conservative and laughed at the result of the referendum because they brought the Prime Minister down. Equally there are many Remain voters who were fairly ambivalent about Europe but will feel feel a lot less confident supporting the Tories without Cameron in charge.
If you were a member of the opposition preparing for an election in 2020 I suspect that you would rather be facing May than Cameron. Once the honeymoon period is over and the veneer of competence inevitably dies away what's left? She's better than Corbyn is about all
As for saying he left no legacy, I suggest that we should remember the mess he inherited in 2010 before judging him too harshly.
I've taken the 5/4 on the Tories in Copeland. One thing that concerns me a little bit, however, is that Labour won this seat in 1983. I suppose this is a by election so turnout will be lower which should favour the Tories.
1983 was a VERY long time ago now. The seat is currently marginal, and the Labour vote share there has been in steady decline at every general election post-1997.
Re: your query about the Greens, yes, I think they will stand. The constituency contains Sellafield. It would be very odd if they didn't!
I read an article earlier today that predicted sterling would crash next March to less than parity with the dollar.
If accurate we can take strength from the brain's trust that put us there a representative sample of whom TSE has used to illustrate Alastair's fine header
A. Where. There's some difference between, let's say, The Economist and Zerohedge. The US is ahead of us in the IR cycle as well; and
B. The more interesting movement is in my opinion vs EUR as that more directly reflects exit negotiations. What did that article opine on that?
In short, a worthless statement without analysis.
It does raise an interesting prospect though.
We currently export 56% of our global goods to beyond the EU and we are experiencing annual growth of 5% in these markets. The EU meanwhile is now the minority market at 44% with a 0.7% shrinkage in exports per annum over the last eight years.
If sterling goes south against the dollar and other currencies except the Euro, the balance of export trade towards the rest of the world may well accelerate, rapidly reducing the significance of the EU as a destination for exports.
David Cameron took the honourable position to resign as prime minister and member of parliament after the referendum was lost.Historians will judge him as one of the worst PMs since the second world war with no successful legacy to write about.I am sure is now happier going back to his grouse shooting instead of trying to hide his real passions due to PR purposes and trying to convince voters that he was authentic.
David Cameron is a decent man who managed to win a majority for the Conservative party on the back of his own personal popularity (which, lest we forget far exceeded that of his party in 2015) something they hadn't done for 18 years, he was then stabbed in the back. repeatedly by members of his own party within months of gaining said election victory.
I suspect that like many of us either in or supporters of the Tory party , who are able to function without some bizarre penchant for relating every piece of news good or bad to Europe, he considered the EU to be crap and irritating but that the alternative might be worse, certainly in the short term and on the balance of probabilities not worth risking. Looking at the current situation I would suggest he's likely to be proved right, particularly bearing in mind the negotiating talent we have representing us.
I think many of the more fanatical Brexiteers in the Tory party are currently so consumed with hubris that they believe their wing of the party is popular and will rule evermore to the sounds of the cheering population. It's not.
There are many Leave voters who will NEVER vote Conservative and laughed at the result of the referendum because they brought the Prime Minister down. Equally there are many Remain voters who were fairly ambivalent about Europe but will feel feel a lot less confident supporting the Tories without Cameron in charge.
If you were a member of the opposition preparing for an election in 2020 I suspect that you would rather be facing May than Cameron. Once the honeymoon period is over and the veneer of competence inevitably dies away what's left? She's better than Corbyn is about all
As for saying he left no legacy, I suggest that we should remember the mess he inherited in 2010 before judging him too harshly.
Not as bad as the mess he left behind him I'm afraid.
For a supposed one time almost LEAVEr you are treading perilously close to a Meeksian glibness are dismissing the views of more than half the population out of hand as the raving of a bunch of weirdos and xenophobes.
No "supposed one time LEAVEr" about it. I was merrily one of the BOO brigrade, but the vitriol coming from the various Leave campaigns was more repellent than "Project Fear" from Remain. I have no doubt that there are some jolly decent chaps and chappesses in the Leave side but their presence was more than compensated for by the vitriolic types.
What was it that first attracted you to the idea of democracy
The thought that people would use their brains to vote. Of course Churchill famously said that "The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter"
@Richard Nabavi, I think that's right. Most local authorities saw between 40% and 60% vote either way.
The one sub-region that does stand out is the former London County Council area where 72% voted Remain. I do think feelings run high there.
Well quite. Don't tell Nicola, but 40% of Scots voted to Leave as well, I wonder how many of those are nationalists...
You are obviously not well versed on fact that 62% voted teh other way, that in anybodys language would be bigger than 38%. I think NIcola is well aware of this and luckily has advisers that can count a bit better than yourself.
If the Greens don't stand in Copeland they may as well pack up. There's Sellafield, a plan for an enormous GDF and three new nuclear reactors on a cramped site. No one else will talk about these issues locally. It's a small but entirely vacant niche.
On the topic itself, someone said downthread that 99% of voters don't care. That is pretty true. I'm not sure that outside of PB and Question time there is this big chasm between the leavers and remainers. People made their minds up based on the knowledge and understanding of the issue that they had. In many cases that may have been limited, but hey that's democracy. Although I was a committed remainer, voter and campaigner, I do think that politically I have a lot more in common with leave voters on Council estates than people who voted remain because they live in London and are doing very well out of the EU. What I find quite amusing is, thinking about the tory Eurosceptics: although they won their argument on the EU - albeit dubiously - the way the referendum played itself out was a pretty clear rejection of many of their own beliefs. The centrality of the NHS to the campaign and the theme that the EU is tantamount to globalisation and globalisation isn't working - certainly feels like a rejection of Thatcherite free market economics which has been driven to its extremes by both Blair and Cameron.
Evening all. I wonder if the resignation of Jamie Reed is just the tip of the Iceberg amongst the Parliamentary Labour Party. Many Labour MP's who have been elected to Parliament who have careers and opportunities outside of parliament must be tempted to follow the same path. The membership has changed beyond all recognition, the right/moderates are not able to wrestle back power in the parties internal structures, the leadership challenge failed, the unions are in a left wing fantasyland and the leadership is unable/unwilling to utilise the abundant talent within the party. In such a situation what are you in Parliament to do? Your options are kowtowing to the leader or what? If I was in their position I would certainly want out. Sitting around in Parliament in a zombie party is a safe well paid job with lots of perks but if you have other options you are going to think about pursuing them.
Speculation already amongst some journalists that he will be the first of many. Most Labour MPs are looking at the prospect of prolonged impotence on the back benches and (assuming boundary reform proceeds) nasty re-selection battles. Many will have mortgages to pay and dependents to support, and those in marginal seats will probably also be working on the assumption that they are going to be thrown out by the electorate if the Far Left doesn't get them first. It's a pretty well-paid job, to be sure, but under current circumstances it's only safe for a Labour MP if he or she has an enormous majority and Momentum doesn't want to scalp them.
Jamie Reed has got a job which, by his own admission, pays as well as being an MP, but without the drudgery of having to deal with anti-social hours, the regular slog up and down the country, and a political party in a total state. Or, for that matter, the very high risk of having his contract of employment burnt in front of him at some point between now and 2020.
All things considered, it would actually be remarkable if other Labour MPs *didn't* throw in the towel.
Copeland at parliamentary level has had ( in population terms ) a few small wards from the neighbouring Allerdale district added making it slightly more rural. It's not much and probably wouldn't have tipped 1983 but it would have been even closer.
Beverley_C, are you yet another remainer now saying that many leavers did not use their brains in deciding how to vote? If so, how condescending do you think that sounds? I guess you and your remainer colleagues have an absolute monopoly of wisdom on such matters as the EU.
"By the way, The terms "Remainer" and "Leaver" are redundant. We really are all Leavers now"
Yep. It's all about the kind of Brexit we seek and get now.
Calling people racist idiots might make Remainers feel better by venting their anger, but it is getting them nowhere. We could end up with hard Brexit by default if there's not some dialogue between the two camps, and I'm fairly sure that most Remainers (apart from the die-hards dreaming of catastrophe) do not want that.
I believe that there is bound to be a form of leaving the EU that can make most of the people content if not ecstatically happy, but we won't get it the way things are going. Six months is plenty of time to adjust to the result. I hope 2017 sees all sides putting their thinking caps on and getting to work on bringing home the best possible result.
I put up a thread yesterday about what Remainers should do next. This is the companion thread.
Leavers have squealed like stuck pigs. But I haven't seen a single sensible suggestion from any of them about how the dialogue between the two camps should be started.
I attempted to answer a few of the questions in the header in a couple of - what I thought were honest and considered - posts downthread.
Unfortunately, there was no engagement by any Remain supporters on them.
I didn't respond directly because I wasn't around when you posted, but I did make a comment that touches on what you wrote. Remainers don't like Brexit, they think it's a misconceived idea and would stop it if they thought they could (possibly including a requirement to respect a democratic vote, however stupid from their point of view). More surprising perhaps is Leavers undermining their own project by being uncompromising and being antagonistic towards those in the UK that that don't support their chosen direction, as well as EU partners who need Brexit like a hole in the head.
This is almost exactly a description of my journey as well. As a Eurosceptic (albeit one who wanted us in the EEA rather than the EU), voting Remain was a hard decision to make.
I viewed both sides as unpleasant in their own ways - the Remain campaign were mendacious; the Leave campaign downright nasty. And mendacious.
The amazing thing about the whole mess is that the intolerance, fear and xenophobia that is getting stoked up is making me view the EU as a form of "damping mechanism". Yes, it homogenises and produces a dreadful "average" but maybe we need that. Maybe I never truly understood the scourge of nationalism and this is a lousy way to learn
'.....................It must be irritating to have only one vote, the same as the knuckle-dragging Neanderthals up north. I have some sympathy - it must be a devastating feeling to have your future decided by such idiots. Hmm ... but then again, it may be a human fault, but it remains a fault. Your turn now.'
You are right...... It IS beyond irritating that our futures have been decided by people with horrible motives.
I suspect it feels like the Germans must have felt in 1933 when a third of the country voted for a racist bastard.
Knowing that a third of your country shared his views must have been chilling.
Knowing half of ours does is beyond chilling.
You can be as condescending as you like. The civilised minority will never graciously accept this decision.
If the Greens don't stand in Copeland they may as well pack up. There's Sellafield, a plan for an enormous GDF and three new nuclear reactors on a cramped site. No one else will talk about these issues locally. It's a small but entirely vacant niche.
You could have said the same about Richmond Park and the third runway.
I'm happy to leave a Remainer to negotiate a deal. I don't mind teasing the bad losers from time to time. But wake me up when the dust and howling have cleared.
I read a lot of TV/movie gossip and Deadpool is a feast of unhappy moneymen vs director vs writers vs rejected changes to tone it down.
The guys who totally called it right and are summed up in the tone of the opening credits won the day.
I loved it and hope for more like it. Who doesn't want Daffodil Daydream as a girlfriend?
I really really hated Deadpool. I found the jokes cringy and the whole talking to the audience thing annoying.
But then again I have a weird taste in films. I am currently watching Guyver: Dark Hero...
I'm a Marvel fan - and Deadpool scored 9/10 for me. Agent Carter was super too, but got lost and didn't have a long agenda plot. I really liked DareDevil too.
If you haven't seen Agent Carter - it scores 8.1 on IMdb and got cancelled, idiots.
Maarsh - the exit agreement is the terms of the divorce. The trade agreement is the new relationship. They are entirely different in law and in action. @also indigo has the measure of it below.
What does the EU give us in return for 50bn?
If they threaten to stop paying pensions to Messrs Clegg, Kinnock and Mandelson that's fine by me
On a similar theme:
Danish Finance Minister Kristian Jensen told Bloomberg in an interview, “The EU cannot continue spending the same amount of money when one of the largest countries, one of the largest contributors [to the EU budget], leaves.” He singled out the “enormous sums” allocated for farm subsidies as one of the EU budget items likely to be cut down after Brexit.
Their internal negotiation will probably be more fraught than the bilateral UK/EU one.
That's a very good point, and why we should oppose any deal that involves nontrivial amounts of money going into the EU budget once we leave. It's by far our biggest negotiating point, as the EU is going to be incapable of cutting its own budget to suit its diminished income once we leave.
This is almost exactly a description of my journey as well. As a Eurosceptic (albeit one who wanted us in the EEA rather than the EU), voting Remain was a hard decision to make.
I viewed both sides as unpleasant in their own ways - the Remain campaign were mendacious; the Leave campaign downright nasty. And mendacious.
The amazing thing about the whole mess is that the intolerance, fear and xenophobia that is getting stoked up is making me view the EU as a form of "damping mechanism". Yes, it homogenises and produces a dreadful "average" but maybe we need that. Maybe I never truly understood the scourge of nationalism and this is a lousy way to learn
Not a comment on Brexit specifically, a definition of nationalism caught my eye yesterday, which resonated with me:
Beverley_C, are you yet another remainer now saying that many leavers did not use their brains in deciding how to vote? If so, how condescending do you think that sounds? I guess you and your remainer colleagues have an absolute monopoly of wisdom on such matters as the EU.
Perhaps. I am an ex-Leaver who, when I saw how the Leave campaign was shaping up, decided that I was in the wrong group and there were only two to chose from.
I still do not like the EU, we need and deserve something better, but even the EU is better than the way we seem to be heading.
I noticed Reed went the day after recess. Deliberately adding three weeks the length of the campaign as the writ can't be moved till the Commons reassembles. Cui Bono ? Normally a longer campaign Hel's the challenger but much of the delay is Christmas. It's also much more remote than it looks because of geography/transport links. Very difficult to import campaign resources.
when I saw how the Leave campaign was shaping up, decided that I was in the wrong group and there were only two to chose from.even the EU is better than the way we seem to be heading.
This is almost exactly a description of my journey as well. As a Eurosceptic (albeit one who wanted us in the EEA rather than the EU), voting Remain was a hard decision to make.
I viewed both sides as unpleasant in their own ways - the Remain campaign were mendacious; the Leave campaign downright nasty. And mendacious.
The amazing thing about the whole mess is that the intolerance, fear and xenophobia that is getting stoked up is making me view the EU as a form of "damping mechanism". Yes, it homogenises and produces a dreadful "average" but maybe we need that. Maybe I never truly understood the scourge of nationalism and this is a lousy way to learn
I agree. I've always considered myself Eurosceptic, but come the campaign as I examined my long held prejudices I could not find good evidence to back them up.
I became a convinced Remainer.
I am still instinctively opposed to fetters on U.K. sovereignty, but when I see today's news that the ECJ has knocked back May's snoopers charter I say a prayer for the EU.
This is almost exactly a description of my journey as well. As a Eurosceptic (albeit one who wanted us in the EEA rather than the EU), voting Remain was a hard decision to make.
I viewed both sides as unpleasant in their own ways - the Remain campaign were mendacious; the Leave campaign downright nasty. And mendacious.
The amazing thing about the whole mess is that the intolerance, fear and xenophobia that is getting stoked up is making me view the EU as a form of "damping mechanism". Yes, it homogenises and produces a dreadful "average" but maybe we need that. Maybe I never truly understood the scourge of nationalism and this is a lousy way to learn
I voted Leave - do you think I represent these traits?
@Plato - Don’t know if you were ever a fan of NCIS, or have heard of DiNozzo, ahyhows he left the show and now stars in his own called Bull. Watched a couple, Mrs SSC recomended.
David Cameron took the honourable position to resign as prime minister and member of parliament after the referendum was lost.Historians will judge him as one of the worst PMs since the second world war with no successful legacy to write about.I am sure is now happier going back to his grouse shooting instead of trying to hide his real passions due to PR purposes and trying to convince voters that he was authentic.
David Cameron is a decent man who managed to win a majority for the Conservative party on the back of his own personal popularity (which, lest we forget far exceeded that of his party in 2015) something they hadn't done for 18 years, he was then stabbed in the back. repeatedly by members of his own party within months of gaining said election victory.
I suspect that like many of us either in or supporters of the Tory party , who are able to function without some bizarre penchant for relating every piece of news good or bad to Europe, he considered the EU to be crap and irritating but that the alternative might be worse, certainly in the short term and on the balance of probabilities not worth risking. Looking at the current situation I would suggest he's likely to be proved right, particularly bearing in mind the negotiating talent we have representing us.
I think many of the more fanatical Brexiteers in the Tory party are currently so consumed with hubris that they believe their wing of the party is popular and will rule evermore to the sounds of the cheering population. It's not.
There are many Leave voters who will NEVER vote Conservative and laughed at the result of the referendum because they brought the Prime Minister down. Equally there are many Remain voters who were fairly ambivalent about Europe but will feel feel a lot less confident supporting the Tories without Cameron in charge.
If you were a member of the opposition preparing for an election in 2020 I suspect that you would rather be facing May than Cameron. Once the honeymoon period is over and the veneer of competence inevitably dies away what's left? She's better than Corbyn is about all
As for saying he left no legacy, I suggest that we should remember the mess he inherited in 2010 before judging him too harshly.
Not as bad as the mess he left behind him I'm afraid.
Well that is democracy for you. Personally if I was him I wouldn't be too keen on helping the mewling imbeciles sort out problems I'd pointed out were bound to occur either.
Only one company for sure, but I can echo that personally. Our EU markets are in decline while the rest of the world expands on. That trend has been ongoing for at least a decade for us. We export about 60% of our output as a company.
@ Midwinter
Cameron was (is) a decent bloke. I found little to disagree with him on for years. For instance his handling of the Syrian refugee issue was spot on, in my view, and he did it under wailing virtue signalling pressure from the usual suspects.
It was therefore very sad that his mistake (in my view, if not his one assumes) was to misread the public on the EU. His deal was crap, we all knew it. I suspect he will admit it in future memoirs. I really wish he'd had the nous to lead Leave as he would have walked it and would now be in a hugely powerful position. But he didn't and that's history. Brexit was decades in the making and was built over a political fault line that Ted Heath papered over from day one. We saw it mostly as a trade deal with political bits to tolerate, and the Continentals see it more or less the other way round (exhibit one: the Euro). It's been one itchy hair shirt for both sides since 1973. Cameron got it wrong for sure, sadly, but the traps were set by others long before.
This is almost exactly a description of my journey as well. As a Eurosceptic (albeit one who wanted us in the EEA rather than the EU), voting Remain was a hard decision to make.
I viewed both sides as unpleasant in their own ways - the Remain campaign were mendacious; the Leave campaign downright nasty. And mendacious.
The amazing thing about the whole mess is that the intolerance, fear and xenophobia that is getting stoked up is making me view the EU as a form of "damping mechanism". Yes, it homogenises and produces a dreadful "average" but maybe we need that. Maybe I never truly understood the scourge of nationalism and this is a lousy way to learn
I voted Leave - do you think I represent these traits?
Who on PB does?
I'm quite disturbed that you think we do. Ho hum.
I would, yes. I'd now describe you as a hard right, or alt-right if you prefer.
@tig86 No. Because *everyone* campaigning in Richmond Park was anti Third Runway. Copeland will be exactly the opposite. It'll be two months of the most extraordinary argument about who's most pro Sellafield. It will be a sight to behold.
The anti Sellafield in Copeland is small but definitely present and will be vacant space. And Sellafield a one thing the plan to cram 3 new reactors in is another. The GDF is quite another still.
Gardenwalker, what you describe as May's Snoopers Charter may or may not be a good thing. However, many of us would prefer a British Court or voters to deliver a verdict on it.
The EU just can't stop interfering can it? I see from page 12 of the Times today that it now expects Golf Carts and dodgems. amongst other vehicles, to have insurance.
@Plato - Don’t know if you were ever a fan of NCIS, or have heard of DiNozzo, ahyhows he left the show and now stars in his own called Bull. Watched a couple, Mrs SSC recomended.
How incredible is it that a pretty young Mother, who was a committed Remainer, was brutally murdered by an ardent Leaver.. and Leave still won?!!!
Really amazing how strong the nations Euroscepticism was.
It would be like Remain winning after a Romanian beggar murdering Boris Johnson
Or, the nation didn't tar a whole group because of one unhinged extremist. Wouldn't be fair to generalise would it?
Fair or not it happens, esp when the bad guy has no redeeming features whatsoever and the victim is a pretty young lefty.
Or they are Muslim
Oh has there only been one unhinged muslim extremist? Want a spread bet?
I'll buy at 2
What's the exact tipping point for "well it must be all of them then"?
It's clearly easier to make young Muslims feel like victims than white Europeans, despite the best efforts of Breitbart etc, so naturally you get more Muslim terrorism.
@Plato some people are determined to persuade themselves that Theresa May's government is the Third Reich Reborn. Normal people see it as a bog standard Tory government.
Gardenwalker, what you describe as May's Snoopers Charter may or may not be a good thing. However, many of us would prefer a British Court or voters to deliver a verdict on it.
The EU just can't stop interfering can it? I see from page 12 of the Times today that it now expects Golf Carts and dodgems. amongst other vehicles, to have insurance.
I would prefer a British court to do so. But it is clear we have little constitutional protection, domestically, from this sort of thing. On privacy, and on other matters like market competitIon, it appears I have more sympathy with EU administrators than our home politicians. I wish it weren't so.
As for golf cart insurance, regulators are gonna to regulate - whether EU, Westminster, or county council.
I read a lot of TV/movie gossip and Deadpool is a feast of unhappy moneymen vs director vs writers vs rejected changes to tone it down.
The guys who totally called it right and are summed up in the tone of the opening credits won the day.
I loved it and hope for more like it. Who doesn't want Daffodil Daydream as a girlfriend?
I really really hated Deadpool. I found the jokes cringy and the whole talking to the audience thing annoying.
But then again I have a weird taste in films. I am currently watching Guyver: Dark Hero...
I'm a Marvel fan - and Deadpool scored 9/10 for me. Agent Carter was super too, but got lost and didn't have a long agenda plot. I really liked DareDevil too.
If you haven't seen Agent Carter - it scores 8.1 on IMdb and got cancelled, idiots.
Comments
I was surprised and disappointed that the majority of my compatriots found themselves on the other side of the equation, but if they are seriously discontented they are entitled to express the fact. We will all have to live with the consequences.
Neither Leave nor Remain were "right" or "wrong". People voted for continuity or change depending on their circumstances. If the majority of voters have demanded radical change it indicates accumulated failure by successive governments going back years or even decades. Whether anyone will eventually benefit from the massive changes being decided on remains to be seen. That's how history works,
Had we had the promised vote on Lisbon, it would've acted as a pressure valve for discontent.
Do I see a problem about remaining in the EASA and similar bodies? No. Does the EU hold all the cards? No, although the way we are going about negotiations is reducing our hand very significantly. Is the EU in the stronger negotiating position? Absolutely it is. We need to be realistic about that.
I neither implied nor alleged that you were a supporter of racist or fascist murder. I noted that some Leave politicians - one specifically, actually - had made it his life's work to foment fear of foreigners in the pursuit of one policy objective. In the climate that he had helped engender it is unsurprising that a man with still more extreme views should feel that violent action was legitimated. He was not alone - we saw a sharp rise in hate crimes after Brexit.
You've written endless posts about how in your view Muslims have not done enough to disavow the actions of Islamist terrorists. I'm sure you can see the parallels. I'm sure that, like most Muslims, you don't approve of murder.
Perhaps Leavers can consider how they might rein in their nuttier fellow travellers. That's one thing that they could take control of but so far have failed to do.
He squeals about climate change and said he'd voted Green - and regularly flies to his third home in Hungary and had an avatar of his heated swimming pool for a while.
He doesn't think rural dwellers have any value and should all move to cities if we want any public services - we've no need for agriculture as we could import all our food too.
If I hadn't seen his witless and snobbish attitude thousands of times on here - I'd presume he was a troll. However, he's really like this. He exists and believes he and people like him should be in charge of our nation.
Urgh.
I believe that there is bound to be a form of leaving the EU that can make most of the people content if not ecstatically happy, but we won't get it the way things are going. Six months is plenty of time to adjust to the result. I hope 2017 sees all sides putting their thinking caps on and getting to work on bringing home the best possible result.
Leavers have squealed like stuck pigs. But I haven't seen a single sensible suggestion from any of them about how the dialogue between the two camps should be started.
As to the rest, the evidence suggests that plenty of Conservatives who supported Remain have reconciled themselves to Brexit. They include the PM, Chancellor, and Home Secretary.
How incredible is it that a pretty young Mother, who was a committed Remainer, was brutally murdered by an ardent Leaver.. and Leave still won?!!!
Really amazing how strong the nations Euroscepticism was.
It would be like Remain winning after a Romanian beggar murdering Boris Johnson
The guys who totally called it right and are summed up in the tone of the opening credits won the day.
I loved it and hope for more like it. Who doesn't want Daffodil Daydream as a girlfriend?
Current Labour majority in Copeland: 6.5%
The Tories have led by at least 6% in every nation VI poll taken since May became Prime Minister. Their mean lead over that period has, of course, been significantly greater.
So for Con to gain would imply a Con lead of 13% on UNS.
It's obviously possible but surely that's quite an ask - I'm not sure I would make Con favourites.
Lab also underperformed at Copeland in 2015 so is already starting from a weaker position that what might be considered to be par.
I'd wager that a significant number of Remain voters in Scotland saw it as a way of trying to force Sindy, while many Londoners feel little or no affiliation to the UK (Yougov had a survey where the lack of Britishness/Englishness was sky high).
If May gets a deal done as she wishes on existing expat/migrant status early on, a considerable proportion of Remainers will see their major concern dealt with.
If they threaten to stop paying pensions to Messrs Clegg, Kinnock and Mandelson that's fine by me
Edmund Burke said that "I do not know the method of drawing up an indictment against a whole people", and it would be great if remainers would stop thinking that drawing up an indictment against 52% of a people is any easier. The H of C has a rule against imputing motive. It is an excellent rule and one which remainers should impose upon themselves.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2011/feb/27/support-poll-support-far-right
"A Populus poll found that 48% of the population would consider supporting a new anti-immigration party committed to challenging Islamist extremism, and would support policies to make it statutory for all public buildings to fly the flag of St George or the union flag.
Anti-fascist groups said the poll's findings challenged the belief that Britons were more tolerant than other Europeans. "This is not because British people are more moderate, but simply because their views have not found a political articulation," said a report by the Searchlight Educational Trust, the anti-fascist charity that commissioned the poll.
According to the survey, 39% of Asian Britons, 34% of white Britons and 21% of black Britons wanted all immigration into the UK to be stopped permanently, or at least until the economy improved. And 43% of Asian Britons, 63% of white Britons and 17% of black Britons agreed with the statement that "immigration into Britain has been a bad thing for the country". Just over half of respondents – 52% – agreed with the proposition that "Muslims create problems in the UK"
B. The more interesting movement is in my opinion vs EUR as that more directly reflects exit negotiations. What did that article opine on that?
In short, a worthless statement without analysis.
Danish Finance Minister Kristian Jensen told Bloomberg in an interview, “The EU cannot continue spending the same amount of money when one of the largest countries, one of the largest contributors [to the EU budget], leaves.” He singled out the “enormous sums” allocated for farm subsidies as one of the EU budget items likely to be cut down after Brexit.
Their internal negotiation will probably be more fraught than the bilateral UK/EU one.
"As I wrote in the thread header though, they need to think carefully about why Remainers have those views."
We need to think carefully? Hmm ... You're not traitors, I'm sure you're personally very amiable, but you, and some others come over as ... snobs. A very old-fashioned word but very accurate. You believe you are better in all ways. More intelligent, more insightful and more worthy. It must be irritating to have only one vote, the same as the knuckle-dragging Neanderthals up north.
I have some sympathy - it must be a devastating feeling to have your future decided by such idiots.
Hmm ... but then again, it may be a human fault, but it remains a fault.
Your turn now.
But a dull, one-sides header doesn't provoke stimulating debate. So meh.
Got to a Hills shop, and only asked for £100 at 5-4.
What was I thinking.
Obviously should have had more on !
I wonder if the resignation of Jamie Reed is just the tip of the Iceberg amongst the Parliamentary Labour Party.
Many Labour MP's who have been elected to Parliament who have careers and opportunities outside of parliament must be tempted to follow the same path. The membership has changed beyond all recognition, the right/moderates are not able to wrestle back power in the parties internal structures, the leadership challenge failed, the unions are in a left wing fantasyland and the leadership is unable/unwilling to utilise the abundant talent within the party. In such a situation what are you in Parliament to do? Your options are kowtowing to the leader or what?
If I was in their position I would certainly want out. Sitting around in Parliament in a zombie party is a safe well paid job with lots of perks but if you have other options you are going to think about pursuing them.
Unfortunately, there was no engagement by any Remain supporters on them.
Wouldn't be fair to generalise would it?
But then again I have a weird taste in films. I am currently watching Guyver: Dark Hero...
I suspect that like many of us either in or supporters of the Tory party , who are able to function without some bizarre penchant for relating every piece of news good or bad to Europe, he considered the EU to be crap and irritating but that the alternative might be worse, certainly in the short term and on the balance of probabilities not worth risking. Looking at the current situation I would suggest he's likely to be proved right, particularly bearing in mind the negotiating talent we have representing us.
I think many of the more fanatical Brexiteers in the Tory party are currently so consumed with hubris that they believe their wing of the party is popular and will rule evermore to the sounds of the cheering population. It's not.
There are many Leave voters who will NEVER vote Conservative and laughed at the result of the referendum because they brought the Prime Minister down. Equally there are many Remain voters who were fairly ambivalent about Europe but will feel feel a lot less confident supporting the Tories without Cameron in charge.
If you were a member of the opposition preparing for an election in 2020 I suspect that you would rather be facing May than Cameron. Once the honeymoon period is over and the veneer of competence inevitably dies away what's left? She's better than Corbyn is about all
As for saying he left no legacy, I suggest that we should remember the mess he inherited in 2010 before judging him too harshly.
Re: your query about the Greens, yes, I think they will stand. The constituency contains Sellafield. It would be very odd if they didn't!
We currently export 56% of our global goods to beyond the EU and we are experiencing annual growth of 5% in these markets. The EU meanwhile is now the minority market at 44% with a 0.7% shrinkage in exports per annum over the last eight years.
If sterling goes south against the dollar and other currencies except the Euro, the balance of export trade towards the rest of the world may well accelerate, rapidly reducing the significance of the EU as a destination for exports.
Those below the line may disagree with it for good reason, it's been very wrong and very misleading for years.
Although I was a committed remainer, voter and campaigner, I do think that politically I have a lot more in common with leave voters on Council estates than people who voted remain because they live in London and are doing very well out of the EU.
What I find quite amusing is, thinking about the tory Eurosceptics: although they won their argument on the EU - albeit dubiously - the way the referendum played itself out was a pretty clear rejection of many of their own beliefs.
The centrality of the NHS to the campaign and the theme that the EU is tantamount to globalisation and globalisation isn't working - certainly feels like a rejection of Thatcherite free market economics which has been driven to its extremes by both Blair and Cameron.
Jamie Reed has got a job which, by his own admission, pays as well as being an MP, but without the drudgery of having to deal with anti-social hours, the regular slog up and down the country, and a political party in a total state. Or, for that matter, the very high risk of having his contract of employment burnt in front of him at some point between now and 2020.
All things considered, it would actually be remarkable if other Labour MPs *didn't* throw in the towel.
'.....................It must be irritating to have only one vote, the same as the knuckle-dragging Neanderthals up north. I have some sympathy - it must be a devastating feeling to have your future decided by such idiots.
Hmm ... but then again, it may be a human fault, but it remains a fault.
Your turn now.'
You are right......
It IS beyond irritating that our futures have been decided by people with horrible motives.
I suspect it feels like the Germans must have felt in 1933 when a third of the country voted for a racist bastard.
Knowing that a third of your country shared his views must have been chilling.
Knowing half of ours does is beyond chilling.
You can be as condescending as you like. The civilised minority will never graciously accept this decision.
And why should you expect them to?
Most people are indeed a little bored with it.
They voted. Leave won.
I'm happy to leave a Remainer to negotiate a deal. I don't mind teasing the bad losers from time to time. But wake me up when the dust and howling have cleared.
If you haven't seen Agent Carter - it scores 8.1 on IMdb and got cancelled, idiots.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V13W9gQ_1GA
A belief that you have a monopoly on patriotism
I still do not like the EU, we need and deserve something better, but even the EU is better than the way we seem to be heading.
I'll buy at 2
"And why should you expect them to?"
Fair enough. I'll stop teasing now as I have a Christmas drink to consume and that Merseyside beer won't drink itself.
We knuckle-draggers have very few needs.
It really isn't.
And whilst ever people like you prefer it in the anti-democratic stasis over the wake-up call alternatives, it will never change.
I became a convinced Remainer.
I am still instinctively opposed to fetters on U.K. sovereignty, but when I see today's news that the ECJ has knocked back May's snoopers charter I say a prayer for the EU.
Who on PB does?
I'm quite disturbed that you think we do. Ho hum.
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt5827228/
Only one company for sure, but I can echo that personally. Our EU markets are in decline while the rest of the world expands on. That trend has been ongoing for at least a decade for us. We export about 60% of our output as a company.
@ Midwinter
Cameron was (is) a decent bloke. I found little to disagree with him on for years. For instance his handling of the Syrian refugee issue was spot on, in my view, and he did it under wailing virtue signalling pressure from the usual suspects.
It was therefore very sad that his mistake (in my view, if not his one assumes) was to misread the public on the EU. His deal was crap, we all knew it. I suspect he will admit it in future memoirs. I really wish he'd had the nous to lead Leave as he would have walked it and would now be in a hugely powerful position. But he didn't and that's history. Brexit was decades in the making and was built over a political fault line that Ted Heath papered over from day one. We saw it mostly as a trade deal with political bits to tolerate, and the Continentals see it more or less the other way round (exhibit one: the Euro). It's been one itchy hair shirt for both sides since 1973. Cameron got it wrong for sure, sadly, but the traps were set by others long before.
That kind of ludicrous hyperbole persuades very few people. As an advertiser, you should realise that.
The anti Sellafield in Copeland is small but definitely present and will be vacant space. And Sellafield a one thing the plan to cram 3 new reactors in is another. The GDF is quite another still.
The EU just can't stop interfering can it? I see from page 12 of the Times today that it now expects Golf Carts and dodgems. amongst other vehicles, to have insurance.
Will have a looksee elsewhere for it now. I thought casting Robert Wagner as Dinozzo dad was epic - what a resemblance!
It's clearly easier to make young Muslims feel like victims than white Europeans, despite the best efforts of Breitbart etc, so naturally you get more Muslim terrorism.
But it is clear we have little constitutional protection, domestically, from this sort of thing.
On privacy, and on other matters like market competitIon, it appears I have more sympathy with EU administrators than our home politicians. I wish it weren't so.
As for golf cart insurance, regulators are gonna to regulate - whether EU, Westminster, or county council.
Daredevil on Netflix was decent.
Jessica Jones was really boring and they seemed to drag out a story which should have been covered in no more than 2/3 episodes.
Luke Cage was boring.
Ant Man was surprisingly good.