When will the by-election be? In cold, soggy January, might favour Conservative turnout over Labour (if the stereotype is right).
Won't be Jan. The writ can't be moved until the new year. More likely that it'll be Feb though I've seen one rumour that Labour might want to hold on until May, to combine it with the locals. Not sure that'd fly; at the very least there'd be accusations that they're frit.
Scott P, Cameron also said he'd stay in post and implement the referendum result. He bears by far the greatest responsibility for there being no proper plan for Brexit. Dereliction of duty.
Will John Woodcock in Barrow & Furness be tempted to follow Jamie Reed?
I did ponder that one on the last thread. A marginal by-election every month, as one by one the moderates facing deselection decide to go their own way, would be a complete nightmare for Corbyn and the leadership.
Michael Crick tweets: Copeland could well be first by-election GAINED by a governing party since the Tories won Mitcham & Morden in 1982 - 35 years ago
In which the sitting Lab MP defected to SDP and then recontested under those colours.
The last straight gain by a govt from an opposition was 1960, Brighouse and Spen. Sunderland South in 1953 is the only other post-war example.
(Though my favourite instance is Liverpool Scotland, 1931, where Lab gained the seat from the Irish Nationalists, uncontested).
Just ran a spreadsheet for Copeland. If all other vote shares remain the same regardless of turnout, Labour have to hold on to all their Remain voters from 2015 and at least 75% of their Leave voters (with none of the 25% going directly to the Tories) in order to hold onto this seat.
That, given Corbyn's views on nuclear power, seems like a very long shot to me.
When will the by-election be? In cold, soggy January, might favour Conservative turnout over Labour (if the stereotype is right).
Won't be Jan. The writ can't be moved until the new year. More likely that it'll be Feb though I've seen one rumour that Labour might want to hold on until May, to combine it with the locals. Not sure that'd fly; at the very least there'd be accusations that they're frit.
No particular rush with the writ, and best left until the March A50 shenanigans and White paper on govt position. May would be fine.
What I did underestimate is how bitter and divisive the aftermath would be, because at heart I thought the EU was pretty unloved by the vast majority of the population, and, once the decision had been taken, many Remainers would simply shrug it off, move on and adjust to the new reality. So that has taken some of the shine off it for me.
Yes, this seems to be a common feeling among Leavers. Just wait until you see what 2017 has in store for you.
Crikey, this site is getting tedious. We have some real political news today, with real betting opportunities and the thread is dominated by yet another re-run of of a discussion about a vote that happened nearly six months ago.
The by election will be fought against the backdrop of the chaotic attempts to prepare to invoke Article 50. It's highly relevant.
What I did underestimate is how bitter and divisive the aftermath would be, because at heart I thought the EU was pretty unloved by the vast majority of the population, and, once the decision had been taken, many Remainers would simply shrug it off, move on and adjust to the new reality. So that has taken some of the shine off it for me.
Yes, this seems to be a common feeling among Leavers. Just wait until what 2017 has in store for you.
A slightly less than gracious response. Which ignores the rest of what I felt was an honest, fair and balanced post.
Your warnings might be taken a little more seriously if they weren't quite so hyperbolic, with an attempt at an underlying tone of menace.
Michael Crick tweets: Copeland could well be first by-election GAINED by a governing party since the Tories won Mitcham & Morden in 1982 - 35 years ago
In which the sitting Lab MP defected to SDP and then recontested under those colours.
The last straight gain by a govt from an opposition was 1960, Brighouse and Spen. Sunderland South in 1953 is the only other post-war example.
(Though my favourite instance is Liverpool Scotland, 1931, where Lab gained the seat from the Irish Nationalists, uncontested).
Scott P, Cameron also said he'd stay in post and implement the referendum result. He bears by far the greatest responsibility for there being no proper plan for Brexit. Dereliction of duty.
You blame John Major for not having a plan for Iraq?
Get a grip. The winners own the result, stop trying to blame the losers.
"Those who see the Remain vs Leave campaign as an existential fight between the forces of light and the forces of darkness are likely to prove irreconcilable."
Unfortunately, I suspect you're right.
Why don't Labour in Copeland put up a pro-Corbyn, fanatical Remain candidate from London to prove they can win anywhere? Just order the serfs to vote the right way - it might work.
John Rentoul has written that Paul Mason is looking for a seat ...
Paul Mason won't win in Rural seats, in an inner city seat probably.
Labour needs candidates that fit the local profile.
I suspect that Rentoul is not being entirely serious in his suggestion and is seeking to tweak the Corbynites' tails, implicitly pointing out that any candidate of their, never mind a London media bod, would lose.
Crikey, this site is getting tedious. We have some real political news today, with real betting opportunities and the thread is dominated by yet another re-run of of a discussion about a vote that happened nearly six months ago.
I'd say it's restricted to the 12 Inner London boroughs, plus Haringey, parts of Scotland, and some university cities. Outer London (less Haringey) voted 47% Leave.
When will the by-election be? In cold, soggy January, might favour Conservative turnout over Labour (if the stereotype is right).
Won't be Jan. The writ can't be moved until the new year. More likely that it'll be Feb though I've seen one rumour that Labour might want to hold on until May, to combine it with the locals. Not sure that'd fly; at the very least there'd be accusations that they're frit.
"The right honourable gentleman is afraid of an election is he? Afraid? Frightened? Frit? Couldn't take it? Couldn't stand it?"
"Get a grip. The winners own the result, stop trying to blame the losers."
I blame Cameron personally for not allowing the CS to produce a contingency plan in the event of a Leave vote. They would have done so by default unless ordered not to do so. Only one person could have done that.
Crikey, this site is getting tedious. We have some real political news today, with real betting opportunities and the thread is dominated by yet another re-run of of a discussion about a vote that happened nearly six months ago.
MrMeeks.com
MiseryMeeks.com
If it's personal time, you might say try writing something which couldn't double as a press release from the office of Theresa May.
Michael Crick tweets: Copeland could well be first by-election GAINED by a governing party since the Tories won Mitcham & Morden in 1982 - 35 years ago
In which the sitting Lab MP defected to SDP and then recontested under those colours.
The last straight gain by a govt from an opposition was 1960, Brighouse and Spen. Sunderland South in 1953 is the only other post-war example.
(Though my favourite instance is Liverpool Scotland, 1931, where Lab gained the seat from the Irish Nationalists, uncontested).
Liverpool? Scotland? Irish Nationalists?
The mind boggles!
And it wasn't some Powell-like mid-term switch either; the Irish Nationalists had held the seat since about 1884, IIRC.
At one point, I think the Irish Nationalists were the Opposition on Liverpool City Council. As late as 1970, the city returned 6 Protestant Councillors.
It's quite laughable that some posters think it's not the PM's job to have a plan to implement either referendum result when he's said that's precisely what he'll do.
Scott P, Cameron also said he'd stay in post and implement the referendum result. He bears by far the greatest responsibility for there being no proper plan for Brexit. Dereliction of duty.
You blame John Major for not having a plan for Iraq?
Get a grip. The winners own the result, stop trying to blame the losers.
It wasn't a referendum on Cameron, he was our elected PM. He asked the people to decide on a decision that impacts on almost everyone in the country. People knew that if Leave won it would create uncertainty, of course it would, big changes always do. But why would someone who claims to care about the country then ramp up the uncertainty by not making a plan for defeat, then leaving when he lost after saying he wouldn't?
The mistake he made was allaying himself to one side or the other. He should have said he preferred to stay in, but not campaigned so as he could take charge of the result either way.
It's quite laughable that some posters think it's not the PM's job to have a plan to implement either referendum result when he's said that's precisely what he'll do.
Every Conservative MP was elected on a manifesto that pledged to respect the outcome, including Ken Clarke, so Article 50 invocation should be subject to a three-line whip, IMHO:
"It will be a fundamental principle of a future Conservative Government that membership of the European Union depends on the consent of the British people – and in recent years that consent has worn wafer-thin. That’s why, after the election, we will negotiate a new settlement for Britain in Europe, and then ask the British people whether they want to stay in the EU on this reformed basis or leave. David Cameron has committed that he will only lead a government that offers an in-out referendum. We will hold that in-out referendum before the end of 2017 and respect the outcome."
I'd say it's restricted to the 12 Inner London boroughs, plus Haringey, parts of Scotland, and some university cities. Outer London (less Haringey) voted 47% Leave.
'it's restricted to the 12 Inner London boroughs'
Er, no. Lots of outer London boroughs – Richmond, Kingston, Waltham Forest to name just a few – voted heavily to Remain. In fact only five London boroughs out of 33 recorded Leave majorities, and not a single one within postal London.
@Casino, it's striking that if you add together the votes in Brighton Pavilion, Brighton Kemptown, Hove, Oxford East, Cambridge, and Bristol West, Conservative support is lower than in 1997.
Oh the level of delusion exhibited. 'Oh noes Cameron promised to stay he, betrayed us loyal leavers who loved and worshipped him. He was our PM he should have stayed and led us' Oh give me a break!!
All you wanted was someone to stay and and take the blame so you could throw shit at him and say what a useless lump he was. Of course Cameron said he was going to stay if he lost, it's what you are always supposed to say. But every commentator said of course he'd have to resign within days if he did lose etc. Strangely it's only Brexiters who say different.
Yet at the time there were significant chatter about how there would be full scale rebellion if he won, how the rebels would make the remainder of his term a living nightmare that he would pay for opposing Brexit, rather than adopting a Budha like pose in the background.
How many on here went on and on about his betrayal and he should go immediately. Yet now oh no he should have stayed, what a coward.
Pathetic.
Lets not forget it's all to clear that most of team leave did not expect to win and had been busy planning their counter insurgency, they did not in fact have clue what to do in reality when the came stumbling in front of the cameras the next day in shock.
Oh the level of delusion exhibited. 'Oh noes Cameron promised to stay he, betrayed us loyal leavers who loved and worshipped him. He was our PM he should have stayed and led us' Oh give me a break!!
All you wanted was someone to stay and and take the blame so you could throw shit at him and say what a useless lump he was. Of course Cameron said he was going to stay if he lost, it's what you are always supposed to say. But every commentator said of course he'd have to resign within days if he did lose etc. Strangely it's only Brexiters who say different.
Yet at the time there were significant chatter about how there would be full scale rebellion if he won, how the rebels would make the remainder of his term a living nightmare that he would pay for opposing Brexit, rather than adopting a Budha like pose in the background.
How many on here went on and on about his betrayal and he should go immediately. Yet now oh no he should have stayed, what a coward.
Pathetic.
Lets not forget it's all to clear that most of team leave did not expect to win and had been busy planning their counter insurgency, they did not in fact have clue what to do in reality when the came stumbling in front of the cameras the next day in shock.
Through your bitter tears, you must realise the country has betrayed you. Such fond hopes of an everlasting European future and the bastards voted Leave. Now only hellfire awaits.
And cowardy-cowardy custard Cameron deserted the sinking ship instead of going down with it. The final disgrace.
I was someone who was always somewhat on the fence about the referendum, but definitely more on the "Leave" side than "Remain". I was even prepared to put up with the economic fallout. What I was not prepared for was the nastiness and various phobias that were put on display.
It was bad enough being on the same side of the debate as that slimeball Farage, but the racism and xenophobia where enough to push me back over the fence and into the "Remain" camp. I thought we, as a country, were better than that. I did not want to be on the same side as the nutters and haters. In my mind "Leave" had become identified with hate and intolerance - views I will never support or lend my vote to.
Now I am being told to happily associate myself with an outcome pushed in part by people who seem to have no idea what they want other than "No F***ing foreigners" or "Stuff Brussels"
"Leave" cannot tell me what I should be enthusiastic about. There is no plan just an act of collective madness. I am just waiting for it to get to the stage of someone telling me to "F off back to wherever you came from"
This is almost exactly a description of my journey as well. As a Eurosceptic (albeit one who wanted us in the EEA rather than the EU), voting Remain was a hard decision to make. I viewed both sides as unpleasant in their own ways - the Remain campaign were mendacious; the Leave campaign downright nasty. And mendacious. Since then, I've only seen the Leavers decry Remoaners, refuse to hold out any olive branches and instead shout "you lost, suck it up", and get totally paranoid about losing their Brexit but without any coherent view on what it will involve. Except that whatever each individual wants to see is the only version that would satisfy democracy.
That's an exaggeration, but not by much. The Remain side have responded similarly - but the Leave side are the winners and should be the magnanimous ones here. Bear in mind that Remainers lost - and that hurts. Vindictiveness and rubbing it in might be satisfying, but it just reinforces and entrenches division.
Taking a dispassionate view of this blog, I think my major issue with it is the same as I have with many blogs here - that it speaks of Leavers, Remainers, etc., as if they were A ) a homogenous group B ) directly involved in policy There are a few PBers who move in influential circles, but other than that, we're not involved, so what's the point of being advised to 'do' anything?
I feel a bit sorry for Merkel, because this is turning out very badly for her. But she should have learnt the lesson of Thatcher, which is to retire after 10 years and not try to go on forever. 18 months ago her ratings were sky high.
I'd say it's restricted to the 12 Inner London boroughs, plus Haringey, parts of Scotland, and some university cities. Outer London (less Haringey) voted 47% Leave.
'it's restricted to the 12 Inner London boroughs'
Er, no. Lots of outer London boroughs – Richmond, Kingston, Waltham Forest to name just a few – voted heavily to Remain. In fact only five London boroughs out of 33 recorded Leave majorities, and not a single one within postal London.
Lots of strawmen, and a dependence on the fact that Remainers think Leavers are racists and therefore Leavers need to accommodate that belief, no matter how wrong it is.
And perhaps it was written before the PM said she would set out her vision for the future early in the New Year, and well in advance of the triggering of Article 50?
I never cared much for the EU, and I always knew at some point that a rupture would occur, because we never signed up to the political ideal of an ever closer Union. We only signed up on a transactional basis. We were never invaded, we won the second world war. We just don't see the EU the same way.
I just grew tired about how eurosceptics would always assign any problem with Britain to Europe and the solution was to leave. I just don't believe Brexit will lead to new sunny uplands.
The problem of course is that many Brexiters imagined some outward looking Britain free trading around the world. The problem is that Brexit looks like turning into a more state interventionist future with more controls and restrictions to protect the country from the vissitudes of international trade, contrary to the libertarian instincts of many early eurosceptics. Brexit is not moving in the direction they wished and they are pissed off.
My other observation is to wonder whether we'd be hearing the all this consternation about 'hopelessly divided Britain' if Remain had won. Somehow I suspect the millions of Leave voters would have been conveniently swept under the carpet.
@Sandpit I've backed Tories and Labour at 84.4% with Hills so I'm laying UKIP (And the rest) a bit shorter than this anyway.
Yeah I just worked that one out too. Backing both Lab and Con is better value at this stage, assuming no Indy (like the mayor of Copeland) comes through the middle.
Lots of strawmen, and a dependence on the fact that Remainers think Leavers are racists and therefore Leavers need to accommodate that belief, no matter how wrong it is.
And perhaps it was written before the PM said she would set out her vision for the future early in the New Year, and well in advance of the triggering of Article 50?
Of course Leavers can regard Remainers' views about them as wrong. As I wrote in the thread header though, they need to think carefully about why Remainers have those views. And they can either suck their thumbs at the injustice of it all or seek to do something about changing those views. Since the referendum, Leavers have spent the last six months either polishing their jackboots or pretending that the referendum campaign never took place. That's not exactly rubbed balm into the wounds or changed opinions, as others on thread have noted.
If it is the settled view of Leavers that they don't need to make any effort to engage with Remainers that does at least give us clarity about where we head from here. It's a pretty bleak vision of a country that will remain divided for years to come.
Taking a dispassionate view of this blog, I think my major issue with it is the same as I have with many blogs here - that it speaks of Leavers, Remainers, etc., as if they were A ) a homogenous group B ) directly involved in policy There are a few PBers who move in influential circles, but other than that, we're not involved, so what's the point of being advised to 'do' anything?
Well said, particularly the first point. It's just not true, and even trying to pretend one is encapsulating the majority of said groups is fraught with difficulty when offering condescension.
"The suspect in the Berlin terror attack was supposed to be deported from Germany but could not be, because he had no valid identity document that could be used to prove he was Tunisian, a senior German official has said."
Since the referendum, Leavers have spent the last six months either polishing their jackboots or pretending that the referendum campaign never took place. That's not exactly rubbed balm into the wounds or changed opinions, as others on thread have noted.
You could say the same about Remainers, given how much some of the bang on about there not being a mandate to take us out of the single market when in fact every leave campaigner said otherwise.
My other observation is to wonder whether we'd be hearing the all this consternation about 'hopelessly divided Britain' if Remain had won. Somehow I suspect the millions of Leave voters would have been conveniently swept under the carpet.
It was a binary choice, but the new deal has to consider the slender margin of victory. Many people may have been motivated to vote Leave by promises of strict immigration controls, but 48% of voters were happy with the Cameron deal, so something marginally stronger than that is fine.
I don't understand (slight lie, I have a pretty good idea) why Remainers have to make out that the vote means "Hard Brexit", it doesn't at all. If leavers want "hard Brexit", they will elect UKIP MP's in the areas where Leave won easily.
What we have is a lot of people who called it wrong now wishing bad on the people that called it right. Like an Arsenal fan saying he was glad Spurs made the CL so he could watch them make a mess of it, or a Spurs fan saying he was glad Arsenal won their group because they drew Bayern.
Surely Labour should be favourites? OK, the Tories have a ressonable chance, but the historiical predents make it look quite a slim one.
They should be, the Tories have never recorded an increase in their share of the vote in any of the 7 by-elections fought since 2015.
Labour has shown a decline only in Tory held seats and an increase only in Labour held seats. Also Jamie Reed was quite an unpopular figure locally, a fresh local face will be more popular.
BUT, it's a rural Leave seat, that's the spanner in the works for making quick assumptions.
The only sure thing is that the LD won't get much traction there, they will keep their deposit but they are unlikely to get much over 10%. UKIP will also be squeezed.
Since the referendum, Leavers have spent the last six months either polishing their jackboots or pretending that the referendum campaign never took place. That's not exactly rubbed balm into the wounds or changed opinions, as others on thread have noted.
You could say the same about Remainers, given how much some of the bang on about there not being a mandate to take us out of the single market when in fact every leave campaigner said otherwise.
I looked at what Remainers should be doing next yesterday. I didn't mince my words about them either. I got a lot less bleating from the Remainers yesterday than I'm getting from Leavers today.
One wonders how many other potential terrorists the German authorities are harbouring because they can't deport them for one reason or another? If the prime suspect had no valid ID documents it's a fair bet that many like-mindeds will have mislaid theirs.
@Speedy Lib Dems around 10% will be a decent result, they'll be the only party to go forward in terms of actual votes from the GE as they were in Sleaford and Richmond too
I feel a bit sorry for Merkel, because this is turning out very badly for her. But she should have learnt the lesson of Thatcher, which is to retire after 10 years and not try to go on forever. 18 months ago her ratings were sky high.
She will still win because many ex-SDPers will vote for her.
Lots of strawmen, and a dependence on the fact that Remainers think Leavers are racists and therefore Leavers need to accommodate that belief, no matter how wrong it is.
And perhaps it was written before the PM said she would set out her vision for the future early in the New Year, and well in advance of the triggering of Article 50?
Of course Leavers can regard Remainers' views about them as wrong. As I wrote in the thread header though, they need to think carefully about why Remainers have those views. And they can either suck their thumbs at the injustice of it all or seek to do something about changing those views. Since the referendum, Leavers have spent the last six months either polishing their jackboots or pretending that the referendum campaign never took place. That's not exactly rubbed balm into the wounds or changed opinions, as others on thread have noted.
If it is the settled view of Leavers that they don't need to make any effort to engage with Remainers that does at least give us clarity about where we head from here. It's a pretty bleak vision of a country that will remain divided for years to come.
Yet I don't remember you being remotely concerned about this bleak vision of a divided society when we were in the EU and polling was showing regular leads for withdrawal. What upsets you is that your chosen team is on the wrong side of that division.
The British public wants out of the single market with controls on immigration.
Of course noone ever answers a question that they want to be poorer, though Kieran Pedley's Hard/soft Brexit loaded question points towards a harder Brexit being "the wish of the people" than most Remainers here would like.
"The suspect in the Berlin terror attack was supposed to be deported from Germany but could not be, because he had no valid identity document that could be used to prove he was Tunisian, a senior German official has said."
Some of the reasons given are quite unbelieveable. That's why for all its defects, control orders were the only practical solution. If you believe someone is a threat from a violence point of view, there is little alternative.
David Cameron took the honourable position to resign as prime minister and member of parliament after the referendum was lost.Historians will judge him as one of the worst PMs since the second world war with no successful legacy to write about.I am sure is now happier going back to his grouse shooting instead of trying to hide his real passions due to PR purposes and trying to convince voters that he was authentic.
@Speedy Lib Dems around 10% will be a decent result, they'll be the only party to go forward in terms of actual votes from the GE as they were in Sleaford and Richmond too
Well they got 10% in 2010 and 11.5% in 2005, so that's their upper bound.
They won't get more than that, so 5-10% is probably what they will get, but from which party they will gain is a mystery. Since it's a marginal, tactical voting will be maximized.
LD do better when there is a large Tory Remain vote, that doesn't exist there.
It depends which Remainers Leave is trying to win over. Winning over most Conservative former Remainers isn't hard. Most of them are eurosceptics, who share a similar social outlook to most people who voted Leave. Winning over left wing Remainers is almost impossible, I should think. For them, all the things that eurosceptics find bad about the EU are things that they find good about it.
Now I am being told to happily associate myself with an outcome pushed in part by people who seem to have no idea what they want other than "No F***ing foreigners" or "Stuff Brussels"
"Leave" cannot tell me what I should be enthusiastic about. There is no plan just an act of collective madness. I am just waiting for it to get to the stage of someone telling me to "F off back to wherever you came from"
For a supposed one time almost LEAVEr you are treading perilously close to a Meeksian glibness are dismissing the views of more than half the population out of hand as the raving of a bunch of weirdos and xenophobes.
What was it that first attracted you to the idea of democracy
It was a binary choice, but the new deal has to consider the slender margin of victory. Many people may have been motivated to vote Leave by promises of strict immigration controls, but 48% of voters were happy with the Cameron deal,
We don't know what the 48% thought about the deal.
We just know that they took a view on balance to vote Remain.
There is no reason to believe that they unanimously support free movement as a specific, nor any reason to believe they unanimously favour being in the single market.
Any notion that is being peddled that they are all the same in motivation is false. In my own home the people who voted Remain did so for reasons that have nothing to do with the single market or in support of open borders.
Comments
Some anonymous Hungarian chap translated my little gamebook adventure in "Fighting Fantazine" into Hungarian!
Title in Hungarian is "Menekules a Magus Bortonebol"
Mr. Speedy, if I were Labour, I'd make it as late as possible. On the other hand, the longer the campaign, the better for the Lib Dems.
The last straight gain by a govt from an opposition was 1960, Brighouse and Spen. Sunderland South in 1953 is the only other post-war example.
(Though my favourite instance is Liverpool Scotland, 1931, where Lab gained the seat from the Irish Nationalists, uncontested).
That, given Corbyn's views on nuclear power, seems like a very long shot to me.
Is the real bitterness restricted to London?
I've seen little here in the NW. Oh, and Boston seemed very satisfied with the result.
Your warnings might be taken a little more seriously if they weren't quite so hyperbolic, with an attempt at an underlying tone of menace.
The mind boggles!
Get a grip. The winners own the result, stop trying to blame the losers.
I'd say it's restricted to the 12 Inner London boroughs, plus Haringey, parts of Scotland, and some university cities. Outer London (less Haringey) voted 47% Leave.
I think Hills have priced it up about right.
FWIW, I'd probably go;
Con Evens
Lab 5/4
UKIP 10
LD 25
Get a grip. Own the result. You won. Suck it up!
"Get a grip. The winners own the result, stop trying to blame the losers."
I blame Cameron personally for not allowing the CS to produce a contingency plan in the event of a Leave vote. They would have done so by default unless ordered not to do so. Only one person could have done that.
Inner-city Bristol, Oxford, Manchester, Cambridge, Brighton and London are now very similar, politically.
They also contain a lot of young, international graduates, who are very adept at punching above their weight in national and social media.
This will be 11-10 Labour, Evens Tories within a couple of hours I reckon.
UKIP pushed to 11-2 or so.
They could start by suggesting a ceiling price for a pair of trousers.
I might reassess once we know more about the candidates, timescales, and have polling data.
Tories will collapse soon though, UKIP steady @ 8.4/9.8
Dear Boss whatever you do, don't be photographed eating a bacon sarnie.
And
Or my fave, Dear Boss voters think you're a weirdo, I think a 8 foot policy monolith will stop them thinking you're a weirdo.
The mistake he made was allaying himself to one side or the other. He should have said he preferred to stay in, but not campaigned so as he could take charge of the result either way.
He was the PM, not leader of UKIP
https://s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/manifesto2015/ConservativeManifesto2015.pdf
"It will be a fundamental principle of a future Conservative
Government that membership of the European Union
depends on the consent of the British people – and in
recent years that consent has worn wafer-thin. That’s why,
after the election, we will negotiate a new settlement for
Britain in Europe, and then ask the British people whether
they want to stay in the EU on this reformed basis or leave.
David Cameron has committed that he will only lead a
government that offers an in-out referendum. We will hold
that in-out referendum before the end of 2017 and respect
the outcome."
Particularly if they were outside a Hills shop at the time
Er, no. Lots of outer London boroughs – Richmond, Kingston, Waltham Forest to name just a few – voted heavily to Remain. In fact only five London boroughs out of 33 recorded Leave majorities, and not a single one within postal London.
Have you seen him intvd by Rubin?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I40q11O5W4E&t=1066s
PANIC!
Cameron and Co. deliberately made it a non-binding public vote just in case it went wrong.
Some manufactured crisis will happen early next year and the result will be wilfully ignored.
I think there is a delicious irony in this as the Nefarious trio of Fox, Davis and Johnson will be causalities of what is about to happen!
So Leave voters and advocates should PANIC! They are going to take away Brexit.
All you wanted was someone to stay and and take the blame so you could throw shit at him and say what a useless lump he was. Of course Cameron said he was going to stay if he lost, it's what you are always supposed to say. But every commentator said of course he'd have to resign within days if he did lose etc. Strangely it's only Brexiters who say different.
Yet at the time there were significant chatter about how there would be full scale rebellion if he won, how the rebels would make the remainder of his term a living nightmare that he would pay for opposing Brexit, rather than adopting a Budha like pose in the background.
How many on here went on and on about his betrayal and he should go immediately. Yet now oh no he should have stayed, what a coward.
Pathetic.
Lets not forget it's all to clear that most of team leave did not expect to win and had been busy planning their counter insurgency, they did not in fact have clue what to do in reality when the came stumbling in front of the cameras the next day in shock.
They've been pissed off ever since.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=DqyJuUkwSZA
Yes, that is true.
I get that it's a PR stunt from them... But still seems a weird thing to agree!
I sympathise.
Through your bitter tears, you must realise the country has betrayed you. Such fond hopes of an everlasting European future and the bastards voted Leave. Now only hellfire awaits.
And cowardy-cowardy custard Cameron deserted the sinking ship instead of going down with it. The final disgrace.
As a Eurosceptic (albeit one who wanted us in the EEA rather than the EU), voting Remain was a hard decision to make.
I viewed both sides as unpleasant in their own ways - the Remain campaign were mendacious; the Leave campaign downright nasty. And mendacious.
Since then, I've only seen the Leavers decry Remoaners, refuse to hold out any olive branches and instead shout "you lost, suck it up", and get totally paranoid about losing their Brexit but without any coherent view on what it will involve. Except that whatever each individual wants to see is the only version that would satisfy democracy.
That's an exaggeration, but not by much.
The Remain side have responded similarly - but the Leave side are the winners and should be the magnanimous ones here. Bear in mind that Remainers lost - and that hurts. Vindictiveness and rubbing it in might be satisfying, but it just reinforces and entrenches division.
A ) a homogenous group
B ) directly involved in policy
There are a few PBers who move in influential circles, but other than that, we're not involved, so what's the point of being advised to 'do' anything?
The only view I've taken is that this is a two horse race.
And perhaps it was written before the PM said she would set out her vision for the future early in the New Year, and well in advance of the triggering of Article 50?
I just grew tired about how eurosceptics would always assign any problem with Britain to Europe and the solution was to leave. I just don't believe Brexit will lead to new sunny uplands.
The problem of course is that many Brexiters imagined some outward looking Britain free trading around the world. The problem is that Brexit looks like turning into a more state interventionist future with more controls and restrictions to protect the country from the vissitudes of international trade, contrary to the libertarian instincts of many early eurosceptics. Brexit is not moving in the direction they wished and they are pissed off.
If it is the settled view of Leavers that they don't need to make any effort to engage with Remainers that does at least give us clarity about where we head from here. It's a pretty bleak vision of a country that will remain divided for years to come.
A ) a homogenous group
B ) directly involved in policy
There are a few PBers who move in influential circles, but other than that, we're not involved, so what's the point of being advised to 'do' anything?
Well said, particularly the first point. It's just not true, and even trying to pretend one is encapsulating the majority of said groups is fraught with difficulty when offering condescension.
100,000 Euro German bounty placed on #berlin attack suspect Anis Amri. My report tonight on BBC1 TV News at 10pm
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/20/berlin-market-attack-suspect-named-23-year-old-asylum-seeker/
I don't understand (slight lie, I have a pretty good idea) why Remainers have to make out that the vote means "Hard Brexit", it doesn't at all. If leavers want "hard Brexit", they will elect UKIP MP's in the areas where Leave won easily.
What we have is a lot of people who called it wrong now wishing bad on the people that called it right. Like an Arsenal fan saying he was glad Spurs made the CL so he could watch them make a mess of it, or a Spurs fan saying he was glad Arsenal won their group because they drew Bayern.
The Muslim claiming Delta Airlines kicked him off his flight for speaking Arabic is the same YouTuber who faked an islamaphobia video in '14
Labour has shown a decline only in Tory held seats and an increase only in Labour held seats.
Also Jamie Reed was quite an unpopular figure locally, a fresh local face will be more popular.
BUT, it's a rural Leave seat, that's the spanner in the works for making quick assumptions.
The only sure thing is that the LD won't get much traction there, they will keep their deposit but they are unlikely to get much over 10%.
UKIP will also be squeezed.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/berlin-massacre-terror-suspect-anis-amri-has-been-arrested-three-times-this-year-a3426016.html
Of course noone ever answers a question that they want to be poorer, though Kieran Pedley's Hard/soft Brexit loaded question points towards a harder Brexit being "the wish of the people" than most Remainers here would like.
They won't get more than that, so 5-10% is probably what they will get, but from which party they will gain is a mystery.
Since it's a marginal, tactical voting will be maximized.
LD do better when there is a large Tory Remain vote, that doesn't exist there.
It depends which Remainers Leave is trying to win over. Winning over most Conservative former Remainers isn't hard. Most of them are eurosceptics, who share a similar social outlook to most people who voted Leave. Winning over left wing Remainers is almost impossible, I should think. For them, all the things that eurosceptics find bad about the EU are things that they find good about it.
What was it that first attracted you to the idea of democracy
We just know that they took a view on balance to vote Remain.
There is no reason to believe that they unanimously support free movement as a specific, nor any reason to believe they unanimously favour being in the single market.
Any notion that is being peddled that they are all the same in motivation is false. In my own home the people who voted Remain did so for reasons that have nothing to do with the single market or in support of open borders.
https://twitter.com/WillRabbe/status/811598790494982144