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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Six months on with little information from Mrs May what should Leavers be doing now?
Yesterday I looked at how Remainers should look to the future. Today I turn to Leavers. This should be equally bracing.
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BREAKING: Kremlin says nearly all communication channels between U.S. and Russia are frozen: RIA - Reuters
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/811539156149141504
It is, like Sleaford and Richmond, an interesting trend of a dislike of party leadership precipitating the byelection rather than the Old Bill or Grim Reaper.
At that point, Leavers and Remainers need to decide how to respond - whether to attempt to undermine the government's too strict/lenient Leave position, or to accept it. It doesn't matter what Leavers collectively want before then, since the decision what we go for is the government's decision (or parliament, under some scenarios) - it'd be nice if leavers and remainers could settle on some firm views, to enable the government to be clear on what it thinks it can get and then sell to the public, but it's not essential, since we're effectively in a lobbying phase, with preposterous notions abounding either about the feasibility of ignoring the referendum entirely (legal but politically a non-starter) or idiotically insistent that only one path is permissable (and that it, of course, is the path the speaker feels is best/will stick it to leavers the most).
Leavers specifically therefore need to keep lobbying the government for what they think is the best leave option, and if that option is not even attempted by government, we can throw wobblers later. Not all will have nice jobs lining up, even if they are so inclined. Many more MPs than Carswell and Reckless acted like UKIP in all but name, and still no others followed them, it will likely be similar with jumping ship from parliament.
I think we should have constructive relationships with the other 27 nation states that currently happen to be members of the EU. That desire is not inconsistent with wanting the EU in its current form to crumble so that all 28 can regain their sovereignty.
In 100 years time, the EU may be looked back on as a blip in european history, that in its earlier incarnation as the EEC facilitated the transition from a time of war to a time of peace, but then became surplus to requirements.
Why would they prefer a marginal defeat to victory?
(I am not saying your analysis is necessarily wrong, just that I simply don't grasp your reasons for it)
It may just depend how poisonous the environment is within the party for the moderates, and how much they think they can achieve remaining as an MP.
Regardless, people might say that, but would they make the effort, in that case to stop events in their tracks? No. So by their actions if not words they are prepared.
Much like the Eastleigh by-election, where a Con defeat of the Lib Dems would have made coalition working extremely difficult.
That said, I expect the Tories to go for the win anyway.
He seems the sort of fellow rather keen on Transgendered bathrooms...
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/811572183650680832
F1: Sergio Marchionne[sp], Ferrari boss, has said "we don't need a Ross Brawn type hero solving all the problems" [or words to that effect].
....
Yes. Yes, you do.
But hey, you've got an Italian third driver, lost the Spanish driver many regard as the best in the world, are busy alienating a German world class driver and have lost the English excellent technical boss who could've turned your fortunes around, so Project Italia's going great.
Project Winning, not so much.
Each of the EU countries has subtly different deposit protection rules, and there is nothing in the treaties that prevents the Italian government from extending deposit protection to include savings products issued by banks.
Today, we pause to remember the 28th anniversary of the loss of #PanAm Flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland. #PanAm103
Who is going to have a good 2017 (net)
The UK: +2
The EU: -51
The US: -41
Also
May: +16
Corbyn: -45
Con: +2
Lab: -42
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/just-one-in-five-people-think-jeremy-corbyn-will-enjoy-a-successful-2017-poll-shows-a3425406.html
Fair point. Hopefully Labour will lose the contest and Corbyn will go. But that is applying logic to the will of the Great Leader. No doubt he will find some pathetic excuse to stay even if Labour do ship the seat.
I think I'm right in saying that whenever Ferrari have gone for an Italy-first team they've done terribly. It's only when they use their pulling power to attract the best from the world that they do well. At least in recent decades.
Prost tried to build a French-first team, and it didn't go well. The only countries who could perhaps do it are the UK and US: even most of Mercedes' work is done in the UK.
More fake news.
https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/dec/21/sunderland-stranger-home-town-brexit-andy-martin
http://this-is-sunderland.co.uk/guardian-article-21st-december-2016/
This was me yesterday
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=iIAO4Htzn8M
Much on Twitter about the comments, which have generally attracted derision.
Perhaps he was asleep when a German driver, British technical boss and French team principal gave Ferrari perhaps the greatest period of dominance in the sport's history [that I remember, anyway].
1) In any coalition, the larger part has to accommodate the smaller part, not vice versa. Accordingly, Nick Clegg could ask for Gordon Brown's head as a precondition for negotiating with Labour in 2010. If Leavers want to work with Remainers, they're going to have to consider how they're going to accommodate them. This simple question is one that Leavers seem congenitally incapable of contemplating.
2) There is no way that Remainers should allow themselves to be set up as fall-guys for implementing the second half of Hannanite Leavers' masterplan of surfing to Leave on a wave of xenophobia then betraying the proles. The Hannanite Leavers will need to consider how they are going to move on from their failed attempt at double betrayal.
"... Hungarian swimming pool-enthusiasts"
You have lost me there, old chap. Care to explain?
I think it's unlikely we can find any common ground with the bitter enders, however, such as Matthew Parris, Gina Miller, or indeed, the author. Those who see the Remain vs Leave campaign as an existential fight between the forces of light and the forces of darkness are likely to prove irreconcilable.
In terms of negotiations with the EU, I would like the UK to preserve free trade in goods, and agree a sensible balance of services access but I would not trade free movement of people for it. I would concede on budgetary contributions. I think regional security and defence should be unaffected. I would like to continue multilateral cooperation on science, education, space, and cultural exchange programmes. I would consider a degree of inter-UK/european cooperation on transport and energy links, within reason, to facilitate ease of holiday/temporary business visits and economic efficiencies. I would hold UK governments accountable for these choices at national elections. We would be able to review these choices at sensible regular intervals.
I have my own view on the policy choices I think an independent UK should make with its repatriated powers, which I view as a separate matter. But I would like to see it taking up a global role championing the spread of liberal democracy worldwide, the value of institutions, advocating freedom of thought, and the rights of the individual, openness to trade, and pragmatism/common sense.
It was bad enough being on the same side of the debate as that slimeball Farage, but the racism and xenophobia where enough to push me back over the fence and into the "Remain" camp. I thought we, as a country, were better than that. I did not want to be on the same side as the nutters and haters. In my mind "Leave" had become identified with hate and intolerance - views I will never support or lend my vote to.
Now I am being told to happily associate myself with an outcome pushed in part by people who seem to have no idea what they want other than "No F***ing foreigners" or "Stuff Brussels"
"Leave" cannot tell me what I should be enthusiastic about. There is no plan just an act of collective madness. I am just waiting for it to get to the stage of someone telling me to "F off back to wherever you came from"
To coin a phrase: the harder she works, the luckier she gets.
http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/matthew-dancona-theresa-may-has-the-luck-and-the-steady-hand-that-britain-needs-a3425716.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/20/stunning-photos-capture-rare-snow-sahara-desert/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_tw
There are a lot (a strong majority) of reasonable supporters on both sides, though.
It's historically Labour but it's one of the few Rural Labour seats left, in the current environment of Urban Vs Rural it's a negative for Labour.
Jamie Reed was also very unpopular in his constituency, last time he recorded a result worse than 1983, replacing him with a popular local is a plus for Labour, however the local damage to Labour by Reed is still present.
Leave got 62% there, so the LD won't get much traction, though they will retain their deposit.
UKIP will go down, by how much and to who will determine the victor, in safe Tory seats they moved Tory, in safe Labour seats they moved Labour, but this is a Labour marginal.
I think it's a 50/50 thing at the moment, the candidates will make the difference.
I expect we'll muddle through somehow, albeit with economic damage. The big unknowns are how big that damage will be, who will get the blame, and who will reap any corresponding electoral rewards.
"Those who see the Remain vs Leave campaign as an existential fight between the forces of light and the forces of darkness are likely to prove irreconcilable."
Unfortunately, I suspect you're right.
Why don't Labour in Copeland put up a pro-Corbyn, fanatical Remain candidate from London to prove they can win anywhere? Just order the serfs to vote the right way - it might work.
What it is not, of course, is the only vote that can ever be counted for all time as the Brexiteers wish to portray it, nor it is the end of any argument about what Brexit looks like and how it might be delivered.
You won! Suck it up...
We were told time and time again on this very website how unwise it would be to make it a referendum about David Cameron, maybe someone should've told him.
The one sub-region that does stand out is the former London County Council area where 72% voted Remain. I do think feelings run high there.
Whatever deal they come to you can guarantee that there will be some who voted Leave who feel betrayed and there will be some who voted Remain who think this is not so bad after all, at least better than they feared. But our individual views don't really matter because the government negotiates and reaches the best deal it can in the national interest and their judgement of that is what we will get.
I can understand why those who voted Remain are a bit apprehensive about the likes of Fox, Davies and Boris having a big say in that but that is representative democracy for you and in reality May and Hammond will make the bigger calls. Once we have left we will have another election and the next government will be able to enter into new arrangements with the EU if it feels that is in the national interest. Of course the new government just might look rather like the old.
REMAIN 48%
I wouldn't back that, personally. Requires Mercedes to have the best car (probably, close second at least) and Bottas to beat Hamilton.
Does suggest Ladbrokes think it's a done deal, which it probably is.
Much as staunch remainers like to create strawmen (albeit with help from some staunch leavers) about what Brexit "means" (usually "hard Brexit" so they can extrapolate disastrous consequences), the truth is that it means whatever who happens to be PM at any given time wants it to. From now on it is no different to the UK's relationship with any other foreign country, and PMs of different persuasions will have looser or closer ties to it as is their wont.
I would have been happy for Cameron to stay on and negotiate a deal only marginally better than the one the voters rejected; if people didn't like it, they can vote for UKIP at the next GE, if they did like it, all is well.
Bet they was no plan on scottish independence if it was to leave.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-polls-live-brexit-david-cameron-remain-leave-a7093406.html
Agree - the polling evidence is that the country wants to get on with Brexit and only a minority favour a further referendum. Whether we'll ever really be able to tell from the vicissitudes of international events whether it was a good idea to leave or not - who knows - but Misery Meeks will continue to nurse his wrath to keep it warm - resembling the eponymous hero's wife in more than just that regard......
What I did underestimate is how bitter and divisive the aftermath would be, because at heart I thought the EU was pretty unloved by the vast majority of the population, and, once the decision had been taken, many Remainers would simply shrug it off, move on and adjust to the new reality. So that has taken some of the shine off it for me.
I suppose I can be grumpy others are not as happy about it as I am, and defensive when attacked, but that's more a function of the political chasm between some Remainers and Leavers, which is a fault line that was only truly revealed by the referendum result itself. I think such dialogue is pretty civil when it's confined to the constitutional, but pretty bitter when it becomes cultural.
So, in that respect, it has been educational.
I would seek to explain to all how we can carry on having a more enhanced version of that age-old debate as an independent Britain. For example, a figleaf for some Remainers might be we could take a higher level of immigration from a more diverse set of countries as an independent UK, and pursue more global internationalist policy (Canada manages this fine) rather than being quite so Eurocentric, but I concede it might be a tough sell to some.
Average in all By-Elections since 2015 (Batley and Spen excluded):
LAB +0.5%
CON -7.9%
UKIP -1.2%
LD +11.9%
In Safe Labour seats:
LAB +5.4%
CON -6%
UKIP +0.1%
LD 0%
In Safe Con Seats:
LAB -6%
CON -10.3%
UKIP -4%
LD +19.7%
Copeland is a Labour marginal and a heavy Leave Rural seat, it's a first in it's category, so who knows.
Cabinet SpAd salary list just published as Jamie Reed resigns.
http://order-order.com/2016/12/21/taking-trash-day-nick-fi-140000/
I'd price it at something like
Tories 5/6
Labour 6/4
UKIP 8/1
"Oh please like anyone on team leave would have trusted a plan set up by Cameron."
I believe Mrs May voted Remain and I wish her luck in her negotiations. I would have wished Cameron luck too. As my wife said ... "Typical public schoolboy. An amateur dabbler who took umbrage at not being allowed to have his own way."
True, but being an amateur, he might have tried to negotiate a good deal just to prove a point. But no, he was never in politics for the long run. "I think I might be rather good at it."
No, Dave, you weren't. When the going went against you ... you fucked off.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/could-labour-lose-a-seat-to-a-tory-government-for-the-first-time-since-1982-a7488781.html
Being a rural leave seat might be canceled by Jamie Reed not being the Labour candidate.
If Labour put a decent local candidate they would edge ahead.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/#/politics/event/28056513/market?marketId=1.128848952
Not as bold as Pulpstar.
Labour needs candidates that fit the local profile.
MrMeeks.com
There are always signs. That press conference. The huge focus on spending/campaigning in the final weeks London, Canary Wharf, Scotland, Northern Ireland, and Gibraltar. And the whopping Leave leads with c.2 weeks to go, which I didn't quite believe.
So we knew it would be close.
My mistake was to believe the final polls on polling day were showing a late swing back to Remain, to seal a very narrow win, which is why I predicted Remain by 51.5% to 48.5% Leave.
My mistake was unmade by this site, and AndyJS in particular.