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I love betting charts like this from massive nights like the Brexit referendum or what we saw overnight on Tues/Wed.

Read the full story here

IanB2

First like Farron, when the counter-revolution comes.

Jonathan

What a chart, you can almost hear the bubble pop.

kle4

I Didn't stay up, did the odds react quicker than with Brexit?

not_on_fire

Is this a chart of rcs100's state of mind that night?

felix

IanB2 said:

First like Farron, when the counter-revolution comes.

Is hell starting to freeze over already?

SouthamObserver

It was halfway through the Florida count, when Clinton wasn't pulling away, that it became obvious.

Sean_F

Which was the "Sunderland" result in the US election?

FF43

SouthamObserver said:

It was halfway through the Florida count, when Clinton wasn't pulling away, that it became obvious.

I must have gone to bed just minutes earlier, confident in a Clinton victory.

IanB2

kle4 said:

I Didn't stay up, did the odds react quicker than with Brexit?

It was a steady trend, with just one real reverse (as I remember from living through it - although you can sort of see it in the graph) which was when VA looked good for Clinton, as I recall.

With Brexit there were more swings - driven back every time the BBC speculated about all the London Remain votes still to come - which made Brexit the more profitable for anyone who could understand the numbers, as we did here. The problem with Trump (for me at least) was the idea that Clinton had her Midwest firewall made piling into Trump seem like a big gamble until long after the markets had stated to move.

not_on_fire

Sean_F said:

Which was the "Sunderland" result in the US election?

Tampa in FL, or possibly VA being much closer than expected.

SouthamObserver

FF43 said:

SouthamObserver said:

It was halfway through the Florida count, when Clinton wasn't pulling away, that it became obvious.

I must have gone to bed just minutes earlier, confident in a Clinton victory.

RCS called it far too early for Clinton - as I told him at the time. The real numbers just didn't look right for her.

Pulpstar

not_on_fire said:

Sean_F said:

Which was the "Sunderland" result in the US election?

Tampa in FL, or possibly VA being much closer than expected.

VA was a swing towards Hillary, but Trump did superb in rural early counting counties there.

not_on_fire

IanB2 said:

kle4 said:

I Didn't stay up, did the odds react quicker than with Brexit?

It was a steady trend, with just one real reverse (as I remember from living through it - although you can sort of see it in the graph) which was when VA looked good for Clinton, as I recall.

With Brexit there were more swings - driven back every time the BBC speculated about all the London Remain votes still to come - which made Brexit the more profitable for anyone who could understand the numbers, as we did here. The problem with Trump (for me at least) was the idea that Clinton had her Midwest firewall made piling into Trump seem like a big gamble until long after the markets had stated to move.

My favourite moment was the early big shift to Trump when WV was called. Seems a lot of people don't know the difference between Virginia and West Virginia!

not_on_fire

IanB2 said:

kle4 said:

I Didn't stay up, did the odds react quicker than with Brexit?

It was a steady trend, with just one real reverse (as I remember from living through it - although you can sort of see it in the graph) which was when VA looked good for Clinton, as I recall.

With Brexit there were more swings - driven back every time the BBC speculated about all the London Remain votes still to come - which made Brexit the more profitable for anyone who could understand the numbers, as we did here. The problem with Trump (for me at least) was the idea that Clinton had her Midwest firewall made piling into Trump seem like a big gamble until long after the markets had stated to move.

It was clear Trump had an excellent chance in the rust belt when the Ohio counts showed Clinton being miles behind. Trump winning Ohio by 9 points is for me the standout result of the election.

IanB2

Well the FTSE is steadily losing its IndependenceDay2 gains, so at least I have got one prediction right. Half way back to the election night dip now. Wall Street is holding up, but I am not convinced this will last.

edmundintokyo

SouthamObserver said:

FF43 said:

SouthamObserver said:

It was halfway through the Florida count, when Clinton wasn't pulling away, that it became obvious.

I must have gone to bed just minutes earlier, confident in a Clinton victory.

RCS called it far too early for Clinton - as I told him at the time. The real numbers just didn't look right for her.

True but when more data came in he accomplished the pirouette with grace and style.

Jonathan

SouthamObserver said:

FF43 said:

SouthamObserver said:

It was halfway through the Florida count, when Clinton wasn't pulling away, that it became obvious.

I must have gone to bed just minutes earlier, confident in a Clinton victory.

RCS called it far too early for Clinton - as I told him at the time. The real numbers just didn't look right for her.

I am old enough, but not too old to remember what its like when the left win. Like 2015, this campaign never felt right.

Morris_Dancer

F1: in comedy news, Ferrari are appealing Vettel's penalty from Mexico. Two weeks ago (almost):
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/37940908

And Perez has dropped a sponsor after a tweet following the Trump victory:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-37942561

kle4

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:

FF43 said:

SouthamObserver said:

It was halfway through the Florida count, when Clinton wasn't pulling away, that it became obvious.

I must have gone to bed just minutes earlier, confident in a Clinton victory.

RCS called it far too early for Clinton - as I told him at the time. The real numbers just didn't look right for her.

I am old enough, but not too old to remember what its like when the left win. Like 2015, this campaign never felt right.

The left shall rise again no doubt. Although will presumably take a hit in France first.

SquareRoot

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:

FF43 said:

SouthamObserver said:

It was halfway through the Florida count, when Clinton wasn't pulling away, that it became obvious.

I must have gone to bed just minutes earlier, confident in a Clinton victory.

RCS called it far too early for Clinton - as I told him at the time. The real numbers just didn't look right for her.

I am old enough, but not too old to remember what its like when the left win. Like 2015, this campaign never felt right.

When has the "left" ever won in the UK. Labour has never won as seriously left wing.. every time Labour leans left, it gets smashed... cont p94

AlastairMeeks

edmundintokyo said:

SouthamObserver said:

FF43 said:

SouthamObserver said:

It was halfway through the Florida count, when Clinton wasn't pulling away, that it became obvious.

I must have gone to bed just minutes earlier, confident in a Clinton victory.

RCS called it far too early for Clinton - as I told him at the time. The real numbers just didn't look right for her.

True but when more data came in he accomplished the pirouette with grace and style.

All of us make mistakes all the time. The art is recognising quickly when you have made a mistake.

Jonathan

kle4 said:

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:

FF43 said:

SouthamObserver said:

It was halfway through the Florida count, when Clinton wasn't pulling away, that it became obvious.

I must have gone to bed just minutes earlier, confident in a Clinton victory.

RCS called it far too early for Clinton - as I told him at the time. The real numbers just didn't look right for her.

I am old enough, but not too old to remember what its like when the left win. Like 2015, this campaign never felt right.

The left shall rise again no doubt. Although will presumably take a hit in France first.

The left will look different when it regains power. Lots of work to do. Think 1983.

[Deleted User]

Super chart. Super result. As it says over at Zerohedge - the Deplorables are going to be coming for the Snowflakes now. War's just beginning.

IanB2

kle4 said:

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:

FF43 said:

SouthamObserver said:

It was halfway through the Florida count, when Clinton wasn't pulling away, that it became obvious.

I must have gone to bed just minutes earlier, confident in a Clinton victory.

RCS called it far too early for Clinton - as I told him at the time. The real numbers just didn't look right for her.

I am old enough, but not too old to remember what its like when the left win. Like 2015, this campaign never felt right.

The left shall rise again no doubt. Although will presumably take a hit in France first.

Even though I share the conviction Corbyn is wrong, I still think the left's better chance in current climate is to maximise its revolutionary credentials. There is no doubt that, on the economic side at least, they ought to be positioned to capture a lot of the discontent and disillusioned votes, particularly from the young, as did Sanders. Whatever you think of Corbyn, it is becoming increasingly clear how misguided the PLP were, for surely Smith, Argclu, or any of Corbyn's original troupe of 'moderate' opponents would have done nothing for them?

Jonathan

SquareRoot said:

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:

FF43 said:

SouthamObserver said:

It was halfway through the Florida count, when Clinton wasn't pulling away, that it became obvious.

I must have gone to bed just minutes earlier, confident in a Clinton victory.

RCS called it far too early for Clinton - as I told him at the time. The real numbers just didn't look right for her.

I am old enough, but not too old to remember what its like when the left win. Like 2015, this campaign never felt right.

When has the "left" ever won in the UK. Labour has never won as seriously left wing.. every time Labour leans left, it gets smashed... cont p94

I know that Tories like to indulge in revisionist history, especially about the Blair era, but rest assured that at the time it was a privilidge and a pleasure to hand the right its arse on a plate.

Casino_Royale

SouthamObserver said:

FF43 said:

SouthamObserver said:

It was halfway through the Florida count, when Clinton wasn't pulling away, that it became obvious.

I must have gone to bed just minutes earlier, confident in a Clinton victory.

RCS called it far too early for Clinton - as I told him at the time. The real numbers just didn't look right for her.

You are the new JackW of the site. Congratulations.

What would you like to call your arse?

Theuniondivvie

Patrick said:

Super chart. Super result. As it says over at Zerohedge - the Deplorables are going to be coming for the Snowflakes now. War's just beginning.

Cool. At least everyone can swiftly dispose of all that 'unity' bullshit from Trump and the less nutty of his proxies.

kle4

IanB2 said:

kle4 said:

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:

FF43 said:

SouthamObserver said:

It was halfway through the Florida count, when Clinton wasn't pulling away, that it became obvious.

I must have gone to bed just minutes earlier, confident in a Clinton victory.

RCS called it far too early for Clinton - as I told him at the time. The real numbers just didn't look right for her.

I am old enough, but not too old to remember what its like when the left win. Like 2015, this campaign never felt right.

The left shall rise again no doubt. Although will presumably take a hit in France first.

Even though I share the conviction Corbyn is wrong, I still think the left's better chance in current climate is to maximise its revolutionary credentials. There is no doubt that, on the economic side at least, they ought to be positioned to capture a lot of the discontent and disillusioned votes, particularly from the young, as did Sanders. Whatever you think of Corbyn, it is becoming increasingly clear how misguided the PLP were, for surely Smith, Argclu, or any of Corbyn's original troupe of 'moderate' opponents would have done nothing for them?

Apparently so. I find it hard to think he could win, but I have long thought he might fo quite a bit better than many think. And if the Tories stumble, well....

rcs1000

edmundintokyo said:

SouthamObserver said:

FF43 said:

SouthamObserver said:

It was halfway through the Florida count, when Clinton wasn't pulling away, that it became obvious.

I must have gone to bed just minutes earlier, confident in a Clinton victory.

RCS called it far too early for Clinton - as I told him at the time. The real numbers just didn't look right for her.

True but when more data came in he accomplished the pirouette with grace and style.

I changed my mind very fast as the early Florida data came through.

kle4

Theuniondivvie said:

Patrick said:

Super chart. Super result. As it says over at Zerohedge - the Deplorables are going to be coming for the Snowflakes now. War's just beginning.

Cool. At least everyone can swiftly dispose of all that 'unity' bullshit from Trump and the less nutty of his proxies.

Doesn't everyone always talk about unity in the immediate aftermath? I'd think they'll save any reveal of less wholesome intention until after the inauguration.

rcs1000

DavidL said:

SouthamObserver said:

foxinsoxuk said:

SouthamObserver said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Just thinking, it's looking likely American women will lose abortion rights under Trump.

That does look likely.

Trump will do little or nothing trade-wise and is unlikely to have any effect on incomes and living standards, so he'll focus on social issues to keep his supporters happy. That will prove to be hugely divisive, of course.

I would disagree over trade. Trump will have a tarrif war with China and other emerging markets. Scrapping TPP, TTIP and NAFTA are all very likely. Trump is only interested in the domestic agenda in the red states,

I'd imagine existing agreements will stay in place. Those that haven't been ratified will wither and die. China owns a huge chunk of American debt, so that may complicate things; while tariffs will just push prices up in America. The Chinese will happily put tariffs on American imports.

But America is a net gainer from that given the huge trade deficit. I will be amazed if Trump does not impose heavy tariffs on China. That country has grown fast on a free ride into a very rich market for a long time and it has not been in the US's interests in terms of trade, employment or strategic power. Whether China has already grown to the point that it can generate its own growth will be interesting to see.

There is co-dependence here: Trump's policies will push up the deficit, and China is by far the biggest lender to the US. Given Trump's opposition to QE, there is the very real possibility that such a tactic could send funding costs for the government and banks sky high.

IanB2

The £ is rising toward $1.26 and the FTSE sinking thru 6800

Sandpit

Morning all. Bloody hell England's cold in November! Cricket looking like a draw from here, just not a pitch for wickets.

kle4

Jonathan said:

SquareRoot said:

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:

FF43 said:

SouthamObserver said:

It was halfway through the Florida count, when Clinton wasn't pulling away, that it became obvious.

I must have gone to bed just minutes earlier, confident in a Clinton victory.

RCS called it far too early for Clinton - as I told him at the time. The real numbers just didn't look right for her.

I am old enough, but not too old to remember what its like when the left win. Like 2015, this campaign never felt right.

When has the "left" ever won in the UK. Labour has never won as seriously left wing.. every time Labour leans left, it gets smashed... cont p94

I know that Tories like to indulge in revisionist history, especially about the Blair era, but rest assured that at the time it was a privilidge and a pleasure to hand the right its arse on a plate.

Labour supporters more than Tories thesedays question the left wingedness of labour u der Blair!

AlastairMeeks

Anyway, as a wise man sadly no longer with us said, I've seen the future, baby it is murder.

felix

Casino_Royale said:

SouthamObserver said:

FF43 said:

SouthamObserver said:

It was halfway through the Florida count, when Clinton wasn't pulling away, that it became obvious.

I must have gone to bed just minutes earlier, confident in a Clinton victory.

RCS called it far too early for Clinton - as I told him at the time. The real numbers just didn't look right for her.

You are the new JackW of the site. Congratulations.

What would you like to call your arse?

Trumpeter?

HYUFD

Sean_F said:

Which was the "Sunderland" result in the US election?

Huge Trump leads in Kentucky and Indiana were a clue, Trump leads in industrial Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin decisive

Sandpit

IanB2 said:

kle4 said:

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:

FF43 said:

SouthamObserver said:

It was halfway through the Florida count, when Clinton wasn't pulling away, that it became obvious.

I must have gone to bed just minutes earlier, confident in a Clinton victory.

RCS called it far too early for Clinton - as I told him at the time. The real numbers just didn't look right for her.

I am old enough, but not too old to remember what its like when the left win. Like 2015, this campaign never felt right.

The left shall rise again no doubt. Although will presumably take a hit in France first.

Even though I share the conviction Corbyn is wrong, I still think the left's better chance in current climate is to maximise its revolutionary credentials. There is no doubt that, on the economic side at least, they ought to be positioned to capture a lot of the discontent and disillusioned votes, particularly from the young, as did Sanders. Whatever you think of Corbyn, it is becoming increasingly clear how misguided the PLP were, for surely Smith, Argclu, or any of Corbyn's original troupe of 'moderate' opponents would have done nothing for them?

But Corbyn is completely the wrong sort of revolutionary. He's an on-steroids version of what the disillusioned are fighting *against* - he's all for unlimited immigration and thinks the most pressing issue in the UK right now is the fate of Palestine.

Jonathan

kle4 said:

Jonathan said:

SquareRoot said:

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:

FF43 said:

SouthamObserver said:

It was halfway through the Florida count, when Clinton wasn't pulling away, that it became obvious.

I must have gone to bed just minutes earlier, confident in a Clinton victory.

RCS called it far too early for Clinton - as I told him at the time. The real numbers just didn't look right for her.

I am old enough, but not too old to remember what its like when the left win. Like 2015, this campaign never felt right.

When has the "left" ever won in the UK. Labour has never won as seriously left wing.. every time Labour leans left, it gets smashed... cont p94

I know that Tories like to indulge in revisionist history, especially about the Blair era, but rest assured that at the time it was a privilidge and a pleasure to hand the right its arse on a plate.

Labour supporters more than Tories thesedays question the left wingedness of labour u der Blair!

Actually, they're both about as bad as each other. An unholy alliance. The rhetoric suits both their ends very well today, but that doesn't make it true.

At the time the Right opposed Blair, meanwhile Corbyn had no difficulty standing on Blairs programme.

felix

Theuniondivvie said:

Patrick said:

Super chart. Super result. As it says over at Zerohedge - the Deplorables are going to be coming for the Snowflakes now. War's just beginning.

Cool. At least everyone can swiftly dispose of all that 'unity' bullshit from Trump and the less nutty of his proxies.

How long b4 Scotland gets back on trend?

not_on_fire

I had such a lucky escape.... I was in heavily on Clinton as a result of the Luntz tweets and similar sentiment elsewhere. But a combination of this site and CNN's excellent coverage helped me reverse my position before it was too late and make a tidy profit.

IanB2

kle4 said:

Jonathan said:

SquareRoot said:

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:

FF43 said:

SouthamObserver said:

It was halfway through the Florida count, when Clinton wasn't pulling away, that it became obvious.

I must have gone to bed just minutes earlier, confident in a Clinton victory.

RCS called it far too early for Clinton - as I told him at the time. The real numbers just didn't look right for her.

I am old enough, but not too old to remember what its like when the left win. Like 2015, this campaign never felt right.

When has the "left" ever won in the UK. Labour has never won as seriously left wing.. every time Labour leans left, it gets smashed... cont p94

I know that Tories like to indulge in revisionist history, especially about the Blair era, but rest assured that at the time it was a privilidge and a pleasure to hand the right its arse on a plate.

Labour supporters more than Tories thesedays question the left wingedness of labour u der Blair!

Nevertheless that day as the sun came up in 1997 truly felt like the first day of a new era, with the government that had ruled throughout my politically-aware liftetime not just defeated but destroyed.

And all the announcements over the days that followed, as we were promised such wondrous things as ethical foreign policy.

It's best to stop the story there, sadly.

PlatoSaid

Patrick said:

Super chart. Super result. As it says over at Zerohedge - the Deplorables are going to be coming for the Snowflakes now. War's just beginning.

Obama's biggest strategic mistake was his executive order fest. Just look at what he signed - the list is enormous.

And Trump can just undo most of it with his pen too. Obamacare is first up. And if there's a fuss, the GOP can just stop all the relief funding instead - that effs the whole model financially.

Is there a market on next appointees for key roles?

Jonathan

IanB2 said:

kle4 said:

Jonathan said:

SquareRoot said:

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:

FF43 said:

SouthamObserver said:

It was halfway through the Florida count, when Clinton wasn't pulling away, that it became obvious.

I must have gone to bed just minutes earlier, confident in a Clinton victory.

RCS called it far too early for Clinton - as I told him at the time. The real numbers just didn't look right for her.

I am old enough, but not too old to remember what its like when the left win. Like 2015, this campaign never felt right.

When has the "left" ever won in the UK. Labour has never won as seriously left wing.. every time Labour leans left, it gets smashed... cont p94

I know that Tories like to indulge in revisionist history, especially about the Blair era, but rest assured that at the time it was a privilidge and a pleasure to hand the right its arse on a plate.

Labour supporters more than Tories thesedays question the left wingedness of labour u der Blair!

Nevertheless that day as the sun came up in 1997 truly felt like the first day of a new era, with the government that had ruled throughout my politically-aware liftetime not just defeated but destroyed.

And all the announcements over the days that followed, as we were promised such wondrous things as ethical foreign policy.

It's best to stop the story there, sadly.

With things like Trump and Brexit we remember why we celebrated so hard. We took the gains for granted and lost them. Now we start over.

IanB2

Sandpit said:

IanB2 said:

kle4 said:

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:

FF43 said:

SouthamObserver said:

It was halfway through the Florida count, when Clinton wasn't pulling away, that it became obvious.

I must have gone to bed just minutes earlier, confident in a Clinton victory.

RCS called it far too early for Clinton - as I told him at the time. The real numbers just didn't look right for her.

I am old enough, but not too old to remember what its like when the left win. Like 2015, this campaign never felt right.

The left shall rise again no doubt. Although will presumably take a hit in France first.

Even though I share the conviction Corbyn is wrong, I still think the left's better chance in current climate is to maximise its revolutionary credentials. There is no doubt that, on the economic side at least, they ought to be positioned to capture a lot of the discontent and disillusioned votes, particularly from the young, as did Sanders. Whatever you think of Corbyn, it is becoming increasingly clear how misguided the PLP were, for surely Smith, Argclu, or any of Corbyn's original troupe of 'moderate' opponents would have done nothing for them?

But Corbyn is completely the wrong sort of revolutionary. He's an on-steroids version of what the disillusioned are fighting *against* - he's all for unlimited immigration and thinks the most pressing issue in the UK right now is the fate of Palestine.

Yes, as I said at the beginning. But replacing Corbyn with someone who would make Clinton look both charismatic and radical would have left them even worse off.

One of the lessons from America is to pay some attention to who is pulling the crowds to the rallies - right? Even if the polls are not so good.

PlatoSaid

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

Which was the "Sunderland" result in the US election?

Huge Trump leads in Kentucky and Indiana were a clue, Trump leads in industrial Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin decisive

I watched PBers talking for a while and finally couldn't resist saying what fun this was

What a great night.

[Deleted User]

Theuniondivvie said:

Patrick said:

Super chart. Super result. As it says over at Zerohedge - the Deplorables are going to be coming for the Snowflakes now. War's just beginning.

Cool. At least everyone can swiftly dispose of all that 'unity' bullshit from Trump and the less nutty of his proxies.

Maybe they can unify around a theme of 'you can say how you really feel and discuss any issues you like without some whiney fuck telling you are terrible because of it'. The slow and wonderful suicide of PC will usher in a return to more free speech and mutual respect. I saw at Samizdata the other day the case of a lefty lesbian feminist SJW type getting told she was actually an oppressor because she was a white lesbian feminist - and of course only black lesbian feminists are the real deal. The left is eating itself. Everyone else is just very tired of being hectored all the time.

IanB2

PlatoSaid said:

Patrick said:

Super chart. Super result. As it says over at Zerohedge - the Deplorables are going to be coming for the Snowflakes now. War's just beginning.

Obama's biggest strategic mistake was his executive order fest. Just look at what he signed - the list is enormous.

And Trump can just undo most of it with his pen too. Obamacare is first up. And if there's a fuss, the GOP can just stop all the relief funding instead - that effs the whole model financially.

Is there a market on next appointees for key roles?

But his alternative was doing FA.

If the things that are undone were popular, there will be a backlash, in time. There always is.

kle4

Jonathan said:

kle4 said:

Jonathan said:

SquareRoot said:

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:

FF43 said:

SouthamObserver said:

It was halfway through the Florida count, when Clinton wasn't pulling away, that it became obvious.

I must have gone to bed just minutes earlier, confident in a Clinton victory.

RCS called it far too early for Clinton - as I told him at the time. The real numbers just didn't look right for her.

I am old enough, but not too old to remember what its like when the left win. Like 2015, this campaign never felt right.

When has the "left" ever won in the UK. Labour has never won as seriously left wing.. every time Labour leans left, it gets smashed... cont p94

I know that Tories like to indulge in revisionist history, especially about the Blair era, but rest assured that at the time it was a privilidge and a pleasure to hand the right its arse on a plate.

Labour supporters more than Tories thesedays question the left wingedness of labour u der Blair!

Actually, they're both about as bad as each other. An unholy alliance. The rhetoric suits both their ends very well today, but that doesn't make it true.

At the time the Right opposed Blair, meanwhile Corbyn had no difficulty standing on Blairs programme.

That is true, although I assume the idea must have been around for awhile as my father always used to say labour won by becoming g the Tories, about the only political thing he used to say, and I know he's voted Tory, labour, LD green and omrlp at times.

IanB2

Patrick said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Patrick said:

Super chart. Super result. As it says over at Zerohedge - the Deplorables are going to be coming for the Snowflakes now. War's just beginning.

Cool. At least everyone can swiftly dispose of all that 'unity' bullshit from Trump and the less nutty of his proxies.

Maybe they can unify around a theme of 'you can say how you really feel and discuss any issues you like without some whiney fuck telling you are terrible because of it'. The slow and wonderful suicide of PC will usher in a return to more free speech and mutual respect. I saw at Samizdata the other day the case of a lefty lesbian feminist SJW type getting told she was actually an oppressor because she was a white lesbian feminist - and of course only black lesbian feminists are the real deal. The left is eating itself. Everyone else is just very tired of being hectored all the time.

The free speech bit I can see, but the mutual respect bit looks very unhappy sitting in your post.

Jonathan

IanB2 said:

Sandpit said:

IanB2 said:

kle4 said:

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:

FF43 said:

SouthamObserver said:

It was halfway through the Florida count, when Clinton wasn't pulling away, that it became obvious.

I must have gone to bed just minutes earlier, confident in a Clinton victory.

RCS called it far too early for Clinton - as I told him at the time. The real numbers just didn't look right for her.

I am old enough, but not too old to remember what its like when the left win. Like 2015, this campaign never felt right.

The left shall rise again no doubt. Although will presumably take a hit in France first.

Even though I share the conviction Corbyn is wrong, I still think the left's better chance in current climate is to maximise its revolutionary credentials. There is no doubt that, on the economic side at least, they ought to be positioned to capture a lot of the discontent and disillusioned votes, particularly from the young, as did Sanders. Whatever you think of Corbyn, it is becoming increasingly clear how misguided the PLP were, for surely Smith, Argclu, or any of Corbyn's original troupe of 'moderate' opponents would have done nothing for them?

But Corbyn is completely the wrong sort of revolutionary. He's an on-steroids version of what the disillusioned are fighting *against* - he's all for unlimited immigration and thinks the most pressing issue in the UK right now is the fate of Palestine.

Yes, as I said at the beginning. But replacing Corbyn with someone who would make Clinton look both charismatic and radical would have left them even worse off.

One of the lessons from America is to pay some attention to who is pulling the crowds to the rallies - right? Even if the polls are not so good.

Corbyn has definitely captured a mood.

The problem is, that having captured it, he is leading it down a dead end focused on a tired policy platform with limited reach. He will win the very passionate support of about 25% of the vote.

MaxPB

not_on_fire said:

I had such a lucky escape.... I was in heavily on Clinton as a result of the Luntz tweets and similar sentiment elsewhere. But a combination of this site and CNN's excellent coverage helped me reverse my position before it was too late and make a tidy profit.

There was a point where the NYT live prediction had the race as 60/40 for Clinton based on early counts and Trump was available for 9s. The market ignored reality for quite a long time, it was only until he looked like winning Florida that he came in under 5 and then when he looked like taking Ohio from early counts he was evens. Once Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania looked close he went favourite.

kle4

IanB2 said:

Sandpit said:

IanB2 said:

kle4 said:

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:

FF43 said:

SouthamObserver said:

It was halfway through the Florida count, when Clinton wasn't pulling away, that it became obvious.

I must have gone to bed just minutes earlier, confident in a Clinton victory.

RCS called it far too early for Clinton - as I told him at the time. The real numbers just didn't look right for her.

I am old enough, but not too old to remember what its like when the left win. Like 2015, this campaign never felt right.

The left shall rise again no doubt. Although will presumably take a hit in France first.

Even though I share the conviction Corbyn is wrong, I still think the left's better chance in current climate is to maximise its revolutionary credentials. There is no doubt that, on the economic side at least, they ought to be positioned to capture a lot of the discontent and disillusioned votes, particularly from the young, as did Sanders. Whatever you think of Corbyn, it is becoming increasingly clear how misguided the PLP were, for surely Smith, Argclu, or any of Corbyn's original troupe of 'moderate' opponents would have done nothing for them?

But Corbyn is completely the wrong sort of revolutionary. He's an on-steroids version of what the disillusioned are fighting *against* - he's all for unlimited immigration and thinks the most pressing issue in the UK right now is the fate of Palestine.

Yes, as I said at the beginning. But replacing Corbyn with someone who would make Clinton look both charismatic and radical would have left them even worse off.

One of the lessons from America is to pay some attention to who is pulling the crowds to the rallies - right? Even if the polls are not so good.

That's a hard one. The crowds may have been incidental. win or lose Corbyn will draw a big crowd (also easier to bus in supporters or for them to travel to see you here I'd have thought)

Sean_F

The Democrats have a big problem in 2018. Namely, mid-term unpopularity will probably see them gain in the House, and State legislatures and governorships, but the Senate map is horrible for them. They're defending 25 out of 33 Seats, several of them narrow wins in States that were massively Red on Tuesday, like West Virginia, North Dakota, Montana, Missouri, Indiana. People like Joe Manchin, Heidi Heitkamp and Ben Tester are very popular, but they'd have to defy some massive electoral gravity to hold on. And Tuesday's results showed little split-ticket voting in Senate v Presidential contests in the end.

not_on_fire

IanB2 said:

PlatoSaid said:

Patrick said:

Super chart. Super result. As it says over at Zerohedge - the Deplorables are going to be coming for the Snowflakes now. War's just beginning.

Obama's biggest strategic mistake was his executive order fest. Just look at what he signed - the list is enormous.

And Trump can just undo most of it with his pen too. Obamacare is first up. And if there's a fuss, the GOP can just stop all the relief funding instead - that effs the whole model financially.

Is there a market on next appointees for key roles?

But his alternative was doing FA.

If the things that are undone were popular, there will be a backlash, in time. There always is.

Indeed... the Dems have a strong chance in 2020 if they pick the right nominee. Even with 2 terms of incumbency and a weak candidate they got 230 EVs. They just need to win back FL and PA, and will likely be closer in AZ and GA than this time from demographic changes. Meanwhile there will be widespread disillusionment with Trump as his lies unravel.

YBarddCwsc

rcs1000 said:

edmundintokyo said:

SouthamObserver said:

FF43 said:

SouthamObserver said:

It was halfway through the Florida count, when Clinton wasn't pulling away, that it became obvious.

I must have gone to bed just minutes earlier, confident in a Clinton victory.

RCS called it far too early for Clinton - as I told him at the time. The real numbers just didn't look right for her.

True but when more data came in he accomplished the pirouette with grace and style.

I changed my mind very fast as the early Florida data came through.

True, but your early statements were too apodictic. Everything was beyond doubt.

I cleared off to bed shortly after your call that it was done. And woke up to a Godalmighty shock.

And so I missed all the fun & games.

Sean_F

IanB2 said:

kle4 said:

Jonathan said:

SquareRoot said:

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:

FF43 said:

SouthamObserver said:

It was halfway through the Florida count, when Clinton wasn't pulling away, that it became obvious.

I must have gone to bed just minutes earlier, confident in a Clinton victory.

RCS called it far too early for Clinton - as I told him at the time. The real numbers just didn't look right for her.

I am old enough, but not too old to remember what its like when the left win. Like 2015, this campaign never felt right.

When has the "left" ever won in the UK. Labour has never won as seriously left wing.. every time Labour leans left, it gets smashed... cont p94

I know that Tories like to indulge in revisionist history, especially about the Blair era, but rest assured that at the time it was a privilidge and a pleasure to hand the right its arse on a plate.

Labour supporters more than Tories thesedays question the left wingedness of labour u der Blair!

Nevertheless that day as the sun came up in 1997 truly felt like the first day of a new era, with the government that had ruled throughout my politically-aware liftetime not just defeated but destroyed.

And all the announcements over the days that followed, as we were promised such wondrous things as ethical foreign policy.

It's best to stop the story there, sadly.

I well remember the despair I felt, the morning after the 1997 election.

SouthamObserver

IanB2 said:

PlatoSaid said:

Patrick said:

Super chart. Super result. As it says over at Zerohedge - the Deplorables are going to be coming for the Snowflakes now. War's just beginning.

Obama's biggest strategic mistake was his executive order fest. Just look at what he signed - the list is enormous.

And Trump can just undo most of it with his pen too. Obamacare is first up. And if there's a fuss, the GOP can just stop all the relief funding instead - that effs the whole model financially.

Is there a market on next appointees for key roles?

But his alternative was doing FA.

If the things that are undone were popular, there will be a backlash, in time. There always is.

Wait for the stories about people dying because Obamacare has gone. That is certain to happen. More whites are on it than blacks and hispanics combined.

The_Apocalypse

not_on_fire said:

IanB2 said:

PlatoSaid said:

Patrick said:

Super chart. Super result. As it says over at Zerohedge - the Deplorables are going to be coming for the Snowflakes now. War's just beginning.

Obama's biggest strategic mistake was his executive order fest. Just look at what he signed - the list is enormous.

And Trump can just undo most of it with his pen too. Obamacare is first up. And if there's a fuss, the GOP can just stop all the relief funding instead - that effs the whole model financially.

Is there a market on next appointees for key roles?

But his alternative was doing FA.

If the things that are undone were popular, there will be a backlash, in time. There always is.

Indeed... the Dems have a strong chance in 2020 if they pick the right nominee. Even with 2 terms of incumbency and a weak candidate they got 230 EVs. They just need to win back FL and PA, and will likely be closer in AZ and GA than this time from demographic changes. Meanwhile there will be widespread disillusionment with Trump as his lies unravel.

Agreed.

MarqueeMark

not_on_fire said:

I had such a lucky escape.... I was in heavily on Clinton as a result of the Luntz tweets and similar sentiment elsewhere. But a combination of this site and CNN's excellent coverage helped me reverse my position before it was too late and make a tidy profit.

Not just the Luntz tweets - the messages coming out of the Trump war room on the night were that he "needed a miracle".

Well, he got one. Divine intervention on that scale is difficult to plug into your betting portfolio!

Jonathan

Sean_F said:

IanB2 said:

kle4 said:

Jonathan said:

SquareRoot said:

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:

FF43 said:

SouthamObserver said:

It was halfway through the Florida count, when Clinton wasn't pulling away, that it became obvious.

I must have gone to bed just minutes earlier, confident in a Clinton victory.

RCS called it far too early for Clinton - as I told him at the time. The real numbers just didn't look right for her.

I am old enough, but not too old to remember what its like when the left win. Like 2015, this campaign never felt right.

When has the "left" ever won in the UK. Labour has never won as seriously left wing.. every time Labour leans left, it gets smashed... cont p94

I know that Tories like to indulge in revisionist history, especially about the Blair era, but rest assured that at the time it was a privilidge and a pleasure to hand the right its arse on a plate.

Labour supporters more than Tories thesedays question the left wingedness of labour u der Blair!

Nevertheless that day as the sun came up in 1997 truly felt like the first day of a new era, with the government that had ruled throughout my politically-aware liftetime not just defeated but destroyed.

And all the announcements over the days that followed, as we were promised such wondrous things as ethical foreign policy.

It's best to stop the story there, sadly.

I well remember the despair I felt, the morning after the 1997 election.

This is where polical opponents share things in common. You know how we feel. But we also know that one day, maybe a while off, things change.

SouthamObserver

Casino_Royale said:

SouthamObserver said:

FF43 said:

SouthamObserver said:

It was halfway through the Florida count, when Clinton wasn't pulling away, that it became obvious.

I must have gone to bed just minutes earlier, confident in a Clinton victory.

RCS called it far too early for Clinton - as I told him at the time. The real numbers just didn't look right for her.

You are the new JackW of the site. Congratulations.

What would you like to call your arse?

Donald.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Patrickk, psychologists were deemed to use the white middle class male too much as the archetype, so feminist psychology was born. But that was deemed to use the white middle class female too much as the archetype, so black feminist psychology was born...

Sean_F

PlatoSaid said:

Patrick said:

Super chart. Super result. As it says over at Zerohedge - the Deplorables are going to be coming for the Snowflakes now. War's just beginning.

Obama's biggest strategic mistake was his executive order fest. Just look at what he signed - the list is enormous.

And Trump can just undo most of it with his pen too. Obamacare is first up. And if there's a fuss, the GOP can just stop all the relief funding instead - that effs the whole model financially.

Is there a market on next appointees for key roles?

Ann Coulter for SCOTUS. Sarah Palin for Secretary of State. Joe Arpaio to become Head of the National Security Council.

MarqueeMark

Sean_F said:

IanB2 said:

kle4 said:

Jonathan said:

SquareRoot said:

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:

FF43 said:

SouthamObserver said:

It was halfway through the Florida count, when Clinton wasn't pulling away, that it became obvious.

I must have gone to bed just minutes earlier, confident in a Clinton victory.

RCS called it far too early for Clinton - as I told him at the time. The real numbers just didn't look right for her.

I am old enough, but not too old to remember what its like when the left win. Like 2015, this campaign never felt right.

When has the "left" ever won in the UK. Labour has never won as seriously left wing.. every time Labour leans left, it gets smashed... cont p94

I know that Tories like to indulge in revisionist history, especially about the Blair era, but rest assured that at the time it was a privilidge and a pleasure to hand the right its arse on a plate.

Labour supporters more than Tories thesedays question the left wingedness of labour u der Blair!

Nevertheless that day as the sun came up in 1997 truly felt like the first day of a new era, with the government that had ruled throughout my politically-aware liftetime not just defeated but destroyed.

And all the announcements over the days that followed, as we were promised such wondrous things as ethical foreign policy.

It's best to stop the story there, sadly.

I well remember the despair I felt, the morning after the 1997 election.

Some of us believed this at the time too:

http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01614/1997-demon-eyes_1614441i.jpg

The_Apocalypse

Southam, I really don't think a lot of these Trump voters have truly considered the implications of his presidency. Can see a lot of people regretting voting for him in the coming years.

another_richard

rcs1000 said:

edmundintokyo said:

SouthamObserver said:

FF43 said:

SouthamObserver said:

It was halfway through the Florida count, when Clinton wasn't pulling away, that it became obvious.

I must have gone to bed just minutes earlier, confident in a Clinton victory.

RCS called it far too early for Clinton - as I told him at the time. The real numbers just didn't look right for her.

True but when more data came in he accomplished the pirouette with grace and style.

I changed my mind very fast as the early Florida data came through.

It was only after Florida was about 70% in that minds started changing.

Some pretty disastrous predictions from some of PB's finest at about 1am:

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/11/08/as-we-await-the-first-calls/#vanilla-comments

and the title of the following thread says it all:

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/11/09/its-looking-good-for-hillary-at-the-moment/

The real PB hero of the night was HYUFD.

Who, like Plato and Speedy, received a lot of undeserved and unapologised for abuse from JackW and his fans.

MaxPB

not_on_fire said:

IanB2 said:

PlatoSaid said:

Patrick said:

Super chart. Super result. As it says over at Zerohedge - the Deplorables are going to be coming for the Snowflakes now. War's just beginning.

Obama's biggest strategic mistake was his executive order fest. Just look at what he signed - the list is enormous.

And Trump can just undo most of it with his pen too. Obamacare is first up. And if there's a fuss, the GOP can just stop all the relief funding instead - that effs the whole model financially.

Is there a market on next appointees for key roles?

But his alternative was doing FA.

If the things that are undone were popular, there will be a backlash, in time. There always is.

Indeed... the Dems have a strong chance in 2020 if they pick the right nominee. Even with 2 terms of incumbency and a weak candidate they got 230 EVs. They just need to win back FL and PA, and will likely be closer in AZ and GA than this time from demographic changes. Meanwhile there will be widespread disillusionment with Trump as his lies unravel.

The Dems can't rely on demographics to win it for them. If Trump does bring back jobs from Mexico and China and congress approves his $600bn programme then the economy will go into overdrive for the last two years of this term, 4-5% growth rates plus 2-3% inflation and higher interest rates. In that a lot of black and Latino voters will feel the benefits, especially given that they stand to benefit the most from the infrastructure gains.

rottenborough

IanB2 said:

Sandpit said:

IanB2 said:

kle4 said:

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:

FF43 said:

SouthamObserver said:

It was halfway through the Florida count, when Clinton wasn't pulling away, that it became obvious.

I must have gone to bed just minutes earlier, confident in a Clinton victory.

RCS called it far too early for Clinton - as I told him at the time. The real numbers just didn't look right for her.

I am old enough, but not too old to remember what its like when the left win. Like 2015, this campaign never felt right.

The left shall rise again no doubt. Although will presumably take a hit in France first.

Even though I share the conviction Corbyn is wrong, I still think the left's better chance in current climate is to maximise its revolutionary credentials. There is no doubt that, on the economic side at least, they ought to be positioned to capture a lot of the discontent and disillusioned votes, particularly from the young, as did Sanders. Whatever you think of Corbyn, it is becoming increasingly clear how misguided the PLP were, for surely Smith, Argclu, or any of Corbyn's original troupe of 'moderate' opponents would have done nothing for them?

But Corbyn is completely the wrong sort of revolutionary. He's an on-steroids version of what the disillusioned are fighting *against* - he's all for unlimited immigration and thinks the most pressing issue in the UK right now is the fate of Palestine.

Yes, as I said at the beginning. But replacing Corbyn with someone who would make Clinton look both charismatic and radical would have left them even worse off.

One of the lessons from America is to pay some attention to who is pulling the crowds to the rallies - right? Even if the polls are not so good.

There will many lessons no doubt. We shouldn't lose site of a key fact: Clinton couldn't pull in the sorts of numbers Obama did. Trump actually pulled in less than Romney but still won.

old_labour

At a university near here, you have to book a place in a safe space a week in advance. The demand for them has gone through the glass ceiling roof.

PlatoSaid

The_Apocalypse said:

Southam, I really don't think a lot of these Trump voters have truly considered the implications of his presidency. Can see a lot of people regretting voting for him in the coming years.

What patronising bollocks again.

logical_song

The_Apocalypse said:

not_on_fire said:

IanB2 said:

PlatoSaid said:

Patrick said:

Super chart. Super result. As it says over at Zerohedge - the Deplorables are going to be coming for the Snowflakes now. War's just beginning.

Obama's biggest strategic mistake was his executive order fest. Just look at what he signed - the list is enormous.

And Trump can just undo most of it with his pen too. Obamacare is first up. And if there's a fuss, the GOP can just stop all the relief funding instead - that effs the whole model financially.

Is there a market on next appointees for key roles?

But his alternative was doing FA.

If the things that are undone were popular, there will be a backlash, in time. There always is.

Indeed... the Dems have a strong chance in 2020 if they pick the right nominee. Even with 2 terms of incumbency and a weak candidate they got 230 EVs. They just need to win back FL and PA, and will likely be closer in AZ and GA than this time from demographic changes. Meanwhile there will be widespread disillusionment with Trump as his lies unravel.

Agreed.

This is what Trump has done to one of the little guys in Scotland, let's hope he doesn't try to bully too many countries during the next four years.
http://www.bbcamerica.com/anglophenia/2012/12/anti-trump-farmer-michael-forbes-wins-scotsman-of-the-year-award

[Deleted User]

IanB2 said:

Patrick said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Patrick said:

Super chart. Super result. As it says over at Zerohedge - the Deplorables are going to be coming for the Snowflakes now. War's just beginning.

Cool. At least everyone can swiftly dispose of all that 'unity' bullshit from Trump and the less nutty of his proxies.

Maybe they can unify around a theme of 'you can say how you really feel and discuss any issues you like without some whiney fuck telling you are terrible because of it'. The slow and wonderful suicide of PC will usher in a return to more free speech and mutual respect. I saw at Samizdata the other day the case of a lefty lesbian feminist SJW type getting told she was actually an oppressor because she was a white lesbian feminist - and of course only black lesbian feminists are the real deal. The left is eating itself. Everyone else is just very tired of being hectored all the time.

The free speech bit I can see, but the mutual respect bit looks very unhappy sitting in your post.

I think the left demands that everyone else respects its point of view and only its point of view - if you happen to disagree then you're deplorable. The right generally says it doesn't have a beef with, for example, homosexuality, but needs to get a hearing on, for example, immigration. If that reasonable demand is supressed it will at some point explode. Far better to have free speech and open arguments. At least both sides would know what the other was thinking - and therein lies the seed of respect. I get the huge impression that many lefties have no idea whatever how possibly a majority of their countrymen actually live and think. It has been the utter disdain and disrespect for the views of a vast swathe of normal decent people that has fuelled the Brexit / Trump style backlash.

MaxPB

The_Apocalypse said:

Southam, I really don't think a lot of these Trump voters have truly considered the implications of his presidency. Can see a lot of people regretting voting for him in the coming years.

I'm sure you would say the same about leave voters.

Sean_F

Jonathan said:

Sean_F said:

IanB2 said:

kle4 said:

Jonathan said:

SquareRoot said:

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:

FF43 said:

SouthamObserver said:

It was halfway through the Florida count, when Clinton wasn't pulling away, that it became obvious.

I must have gone to bed just minutes earlier, confident in a Clinton victory.

RCS called it far too early for Clinton - as I told him at the time. The real numbers just didn't look right for her.

I am old enough, but not too old to remember what its like when the left win. Like 2015, this campaign never felt right.

When has the "left" ever won in the UK. Labour has never won as seriously left wing.. every time Labour leans left, it gets smashed... cont p94

I know that Tories like to indulge in revisionist history, especially about the Blair era, but rest assured that at the time it was a privilidge and a pleasure to hand the right its arse on a plate.

Labour supporters more than Tories thesedays question the left wingedness of labour u der Blair!

Nevertheless that day as the sun came up in 1997 truly felt like the first day of a new era, with the government that had ruled throughout my politically-aware liftetime not just defeated but destroyed.

And all the announcements over the days that followed, as we were promised such wondrous things as ethical foreign policy.

It's best to stop the story there, sadly.

I well remember the despair I felt, the morning after the 1997 election.

This is where polical opponents share things in common. You know how we feel. But we also know that one day, maybe a while off, things change.

It wasn't the defeat (I knew we'd lose) it was the scale of the defeat (I thought we'd finish with about 220 seats).

MarqueeMark

The_Apocalypse said:

Southam, I really don't think a lot of these Trump voters have truly considered the implications of his presidency. Can see a lot of people regretting voting for him in the coming years.

For Trump voters, read what Brexit voters have had to endure for the past months.

"Bless them, for they know not what they do...."

Ever thought that they voted as they did because the other side failed to make a convincing argument to win their vote? That Brexit and Trump happened not because their supporters were dumb or hoodwinked, but because they carefully weighed up the two opposing choices - and made a considered, valid judgment call?

MaxPB

Patrick said:

IanB2 said:

Patrick said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Patrick said:

Super chart. Super result. As it says over at Zerohedge - the Deplorables are going to be coming for the Snowflakes now. War's just beginning.

Cool. At least everyone can swiftly dispose of all that 'unity' bullshit from Trump and the less nutty of his proxies.

Maybe they can unify around a theme of 'you can say how you really feel and discuss any issues you like without some whiney fuck telling you are terrible because of it'. The slow and wonderful suicide of PC will usher in a return to more free speech and mutual respect. I saw at Samizdata the other day the case of a lefty lesbian feminist SJW type getting told she was actually an oppressor because she was a white lesbian feminist - and of course only black lesbian feminists are the real deal. The left is eating itself. Everyone else is just very tired of being hectored all the time.

The free speech bit I can see, but the mutual respect bit looks very unhappy sitting in your post.

I think the left demands that everyone else respects its point of view and only its point of view - if you happen to disagree then you're deplorable. The right generally says it doesn't have a beef with, for example, homosexuality, but needs to get a hearing on, for example, immigration. If that reasonable demand is supressed it will at some point explode. Far better to have free speech and open arguments. At least both sides would know what the other was thinking - and therein lies the seed of respect. I get the huge impression that many lefties have no idea whatever how possibly a majority of their countrymen actually live and think. It has been the utter disdain and disrespect for the views of a vast swathe of normal decent people that has fuelled the Brexit / Trump style backlash.

I think the American right is far more socially conservative than the British right. There are a lot of American evangelicals who are (violently) opposed to gay rights and abortion. We don't really have anything similar here.

The_Apocalypse

PlatoSaid said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Southam, I really don't think a lot of these Trump voters have truly considered the implications of his presidency. Can see a lot of people regretting voting for him in the coming years.

What patronising bollocks again.

PlatoSaid said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Southam, I really don't think a lot of these Trump voters have truly considered the implications of his presidency. Can see a lot of people regretting voting for him in the coming years.

What patronising bollocks again.

Well, we'll see won't we now?

MarqueeMark

old_labour said:

At a university near here, you have to book a place in a safe space a week in advance. The demand for them has gone through the glass ceiling roof.

After the Trump win, is there a sit-in at the safe space?

The_Apocalypse

MaxPB said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Southam, I really don't think a lot of these Trump voters have truly considered the implications of his presidency. Can see a lot of people regretting voting for him in the coming years.

I'm sure you would say the same about leave voters.

We'll see how Brexit works out in time. For the sake of this country, I hope it all works out.

IanB2

MaxPB said:

not_on_fire said:

IanB2 said:

PlatoSaid said:

Patrick said:

Super chart. Super result. As it says over at Zerohedge - the Deplorables are going to be coming for the Snowflakes now. War's just beginning.

Obama's biggest strategic mistake was his executive order fest. Just look at what he signed - the list is enormous.

And Trump can just undo most of it with his pen too. Obamacare is first up. And if there's a fuss, the GOP can just stop all the relief funding instead - that effs the whole model financially.

Is there a market on next appointees for key roles?

But his alternative was doing FA.

If the things that are undone were popular, there will be a backlash, in time. There always is.

Indeed... the Dems have a strong chance in 2020 if they pick the right nominee. Even with 2 terms of incumbency and a weak candidate they got 230 EVs. They just need to win back FL and PA, and will likely be closer in AZ and GA than this time from demographic changes. Meanwhile there will be widespread disillusionment with Trump as his lies unravel.

The Dems can't rely on demographics to win it for them. If Trump does bring back jobs from Mexico and China and congress approves his $600bn programme then the economy will go into overdrive for the last two years of this term, 4-5% growth rates plus 2-3% inflation and higher interest rates. In that a lot of black and Latino voters will feel the benefits, especially given that they stand to benefit the most from the infrastructure gains.

Looks like the end of right wing economics!

Pulpstar

MaxPB said:

not_on_fire said:

I had such a lucky escape.... I was in heavily on Clinton as a result of the Luntz tweets and similar sentiment elsewhere. But a combination of this site and CNN's excellent coverage helped me reverse my position before it was too late and make a tidy profit.

There was a point where the NYT live prediction had the race as 60/40 for Clinton based on early counts and Trump was available for 9s. The market ignored reality for quite a long time, it was only until he looked like winning Florida that he came in under 5 and then when he looked like taking Ohio from early counts he was evens. Once Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania looked close he went favourite.

I traded out of Clinton at 1.13 after I'd got the Donald to -640 to ~ +1000. This site, CNN's coverage and the NY Times website were the best resources on the night.

Other half had BBC on, not really a channel you want to watch if you're betting on the election !

The_Apocalypse

MarqueeMark said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Southam, I really don't think a lot of these Trump voters have truly considered the implications of his presidency. Can see a lot of people regretting voting for him in the coming years.

For Trump voters, read what Brexit voters have had to endure for the past months.

"Bless them, for they know not what they do...."

Ever thought that they voted as they did because the other side failed to make a convincing argument to win their vote? That Brexit and Trump happened not because their supporters were dumb or hoodwinked, but because they carefully weighed up the two opposing choices - and made a considered, valid judgment call?

I don't think they are dumb or have been hoodwinked. But I do think they don't believe that Trump will go through with several of things he has said.

Alistair

not_on_fire said:

IanB2 said:

kle4 said:

I Didn't stay up, did the odds react quicker than with Brexit?

It was a steady trend, with just one real reverse (as I remember from living through it - although you can sort of see it in the graph) which was when VA looked good for Clinton, as I recall.

With Brexit there were more swings - driven back every time the BBC speculated about all the London Remain votes still to come - which made Brexit the more profitable for anyone who could understand the numbers, as we did here. The problem with Trump (for me at least) was the idea that Clinton had her Midwest firewall made piling into Trump seem like a big gamble until long after the markets had stated to move.

It was clear Trump had an excellent chance in the rust belt when the Ohio counts showed Clinton being miles behind. Trump winning Ohio by 9 points is for me the standout result of the election.

It's the best polling fail by far.

MaxPB

IanB2 said:

MaxPB said:

not_on_fire said:

IanB2 said:

PlatoSaid said:

Patrick said:

Super chart. Super result. As it says over at Zerohedge - the Deplorables are going to be coming for the Snowflakes now. War's just beginning.

Obama's biggest strategic mistake was his executive order fest. Just look at what he signed - the list is enormous.

And Trump can just undo most of it with his pen too. Obamacare is first up. And if there's a fuss, the GOP can just stop all the relief funding instead - that effs the whole model financially.

Is there a market on next appointees for key roles?

But his alternative was doing FA.

If the things that are undone were popular, there will be a backlash, in time. There always is.

Indeed... the Dems have a strong chance in 2020 if they pick the right nominee. Even with 2 terms of incumbency and a weak candidate they got 230 EVs. They just need to win back FL and PA, and will likely be closer in AZ and GA than this time from demographic changes. Meanwhile there will be widespread disillusionment with Trump as his lies unravel.

The Dems can't rely on demographics to win it for them. If Trump does bring back jobs from Mexico and China and congress approves his $600bn programme then the economy will go into overdrive for the last two years of this term, 4-5% growth rates plus 2-3% inflation and higher interest rates. In that a lot of black and Latino voters will feel the benefits, especially given that they stand to benefit the most from the infrastructure gains.

Looks like the end of right wing economics!

Trump hasn't run on the right for many issues. Protectionism, government largesse, higher wages are all on the left. Why do you think so many House republicans opposed him in the primaries and in the race?

HYUFD

MaxPB said:

Patrick said:

IanB2 said:

Patrick said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Patrick said:

Super chart. Super result. As it says over at Zerohedge - the Deplorables are going to be coming for the Snowflakes now. War's just beginning.

Cool. At least everyone can swiftly dispose of all that 'unity' bullshit from Trump and the less nutty of his proxies.

Maybe they can unify around a theme of 'you can say how you really feel and discuss any issues you like without some whiney fuck telling you are terrible because of it'. The slow and wonderful suicide of PC will usher in a return to more free speech and mutual respect. I saw at Samizdata the other day the case of a lefty lesbian feminist SJW type getting told she was actually an oppressor because she was a white lesbian feminist - and of course only black lesbian feminists are the real deal. The left is eating itself. Everyone else is just very tired of being hectored all the time.

The free speech bit I can see, but the mutual respect bit looks very unhappy sitting in your post.

I think the left demands that everyone else respects its point of view and only its point of view - if you happen to disagree then you're deplorable. The right generally says it doesn't have a beef with, for example, homosexuality, but needs to get a hearing on, for example, immigration. If that reasonable demand is supressed it will at some point explode. Far better to have free speech and open arguments. At least both sides would know what the other was thinking - and therein lies the seed of respect. I get the huge impression that many lefties have no idea whatever how possibly a majority of their countrymen actually live and think. It has been the utter disdain and disrespect for the views of a vast swathe of normal decent people that has fuelled the Brexit / Trump style backlash.

I think the American right is far more socially conservative than the British right. There are a lot of American evangelicals who are (violently) opposed to gay rights and abortion. We don't really have anything similar here.

Nadine Dorries and some within the Tory right and UKIP are very socially conservative but Trump's victory was about immigration and globalisation like Brexit, social conservatives really wanted Cruz

Sean_F

Patrick said:

IanB2 said:

Patrick said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Patrick said:

Super chart. Super result. As it says over at Zerohedge - the Deplorables are going to be coming for the Snowflakes now. War's just beginning.

Cool. At least everyone can swiftly dispose of all that 'unity' bullshit from Trump and the less nutty of his proxies.

Maybe they can unify around a theme of 'you can say how you really feel and discuss any issues you like without some whiney fuck telling you are terrible because of it'. The slow and wonderful suicide of PC will usher in a return to more free speech and mutual respect. I saw at Samizdata the other day the case of a lefty lesbian feminist SJW type getting told she was actually an oppressor because she was a white lesbian feminist - and of course only black lesbian feminists are the real deal. The left is eating itself. Everyone else is just very tired of being hectored all the time.

The free speech bit I can see, but the mutual respect bit looks very unhappy sitting in your post.

I think the left demands that everyone else respects its point of view and only its point of view - if you happen to disagree then you're deplorable. The right generally says it doesn't have a beef with, for example, homosexuality, but needs to get a hearing on, for example, immigration. If that reasonable demand is supressed it will at some point explode. Far better to have free speech and open arguments. At least both sides would know what the other was thinking - and therein lies the seed of respect. I get the huge impression that many lefties have no idea whatever how possibly a majority of their countrymen actually live and think. It has been the utter disdain and disrespect for the views of a vast swathe of normal decent people that has fuelled the Brexit / Trump style backlash.

I don't think that's a sin that's exclusive to the Left. Most In Groups demand that orthodoxy must be enforced, whereas Out groups argue for tolerance. But, when Out groups become In Groups, they tend to drop tolerance and favour orthodoxy.

In much of public life, centre left viewpoints have been orthodoxy for a generation. Clearly, voters are pushing back against that, but it may be a case of replacing one orthodoxy with another, rather than with tolerance.

old_labour

MarqueeMark said:

old_labour said:

At a university near here, you have to book a place in a safe space a week in advance. The demand for them has gone through the glass ceiling roof.

After the Trump win, is there a sit-in at the safe space?

Breathing exercises, yoga, soft toys and colouring books.

MarqueeMark

BTW, Mr Dancer, had a fabulous day at Brands Hatch yesterday. The Ferrari 246 Dino and the Lancia-Ferrari D50 made a beautiful pair as they duelled with each other around the circuit. And the NOISE!! What a beautiful 120 decibel roar... Nothing like today's wimpy efforts.

We also had Mike Hawthorn's D-Type Jaguar. That had been race-modified to comply with a 100 decibel limit, so sounded very tame by comparison. But boy, it was beautiful.

Fun to watch the Top Gear camera crew operating the "Russian arm" to film them. Oh, and I also got a run around the full circuit in the safety car. Which was nice...

rottenborough

MarqueeMark said:

old_labour said:

At a university near here, you have to book a place in a safe space a week in advance. The demand for them has gone through the glass ceiling roof.

After the Trump win, is there a sit-in at the safe space?

In my day at university, there was always a safe space available, day and night. It was called the library.

MaxPB

Pulpstar said:

MaxPB said:

not_on_fire said:

I had such a lucky escape.... I was in heavily on Clinton as a result of the Luntz tweets and similar sentiment elsewhere. But a combination of this site and CNN's excellent coverage helped me reverse my position before it was too late and make a tidy profit.

There was a point where the NYT live prediction had the race as 60/40 for Clinton based on early counts and Trump was available for 9s. The market ignored reality for quite a long time, it was only until he looked like winning Florida that he came in under 5 and then when he looked like taking Ohio from early counts he was evens. Once Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania looked close he went favourite.

I traded out of Clinton at 1.13 after I'd got the Donald to -640 to ~ +1000. This site, CNN's coverage and the NY Times website were the best resources on the night.

Other half had BBC on, not really a channel you want to watch if you're betting on the election !

Yeah the BBC live counts were way, way behind. CNN had the best live count and the NYT predictor was fucking amazing, it got very little wrong in the end.

HYUFD

PlatoSaid said:

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

Which was the "Sunderland" result in the US election?

Huge Trump leads in Kentucky and Indiana were a clue, Trump leads in industrial Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin decisive

I watched PBers talking for a while and finally couldn't resist saying what fun this was

What a great night.

Yes RCS called it for Clinton too early as the exits were wrong as Speedy and I were saying

old_labour

rottenborough said:

MarqueeMark said:

old_labour said:

At a university near here, you have to book a place in a safe space a week in advance. The demand for them has gone through the glass ceiling roof.

After the Trump win, is there a sit-in at the safe space?

In my day at university, there was always a safe space available, day and night. It was called the library.

In my day, it was called the bar with the various drink promotions.

Pulpstar

Alistair said:

not_on_fire said:

IanB2 said:

kle4 said:

I Didn't stay up, did the odds react quicker than with Brexit?

It was a steady trend, with just one real reverse (as I remember from living through it - although you can sort of see it in the graph) which was when VA looked good for Clinton, as I recall.

With Brexit there were more swings - driven back every time the BBC speculated about all the London Remain votes still to come - which made Brexit the more profitable for anyone who could understand the numbers, as we did here. The problem with Trump (for me at least) was the idea that Clinton had her Midwest firewall made piling into Trump seem like a big gamble until long after the markets had stated to move.

It was clear Trump had an excellent chance in the rust belt when the Ohio counts showed Clinton being miles behind. Trump winning Ohio by 9 points is for me the standout result of the election.

It's the best polling fail by far.

The national polling will be off by 2-3 pts in the end (Yes you must look at ALL the polls (Not dismiss IBD or Rasmussen).

The swing state polling was out by around 5%, with a SD of ~ 3.5%. So almost 2 SDs out (Going off Rod Crosby's spreadsheet)

That is massive, utterly utterly yuuuuge. And that is where the polling needed to be "the best".

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Mark, sounds like you had a splendid day out. I can only assume Clarkson wasn't driving the safety car

PlatoSaid

Just a little updatette re Rod Crosby

His winnings are seriously impressive. Now he's off to spend some loose change getting his pilot's licence.

rottenborough

MaxPB said:

IanB2 said:

MaxPB said:

not_on_fire said:

IanB2 said:

PlatoSaid said:

Patrick said:

Super chart. Super result. As it says over at Zerohedge - the Deplorables are going to be coming for the Snowflakes now. War's just beginning.

Obama's biggest strategic mistake was his executive order fest. Just look at what he signed - the list is enormous.

And Trump can just undo most of it with his pen too. Obamacare is first up. And if there's a fuss, the GOP can just stop all the relief funding instead - that effs the whole model financially.

Is there a market on next appointees for key roles?

But his alternative was doing FA.

If the things that are undone were popular, there will be a backlash, in time. There always is.

Indeed... the Dems have a strong chance in 2020 if they pick the right nominee. Even with 2 terms of incumbency and a weak candidate they got 230 EVs. They just need to win back FL and PA, and will likely be closer in AZ and GA than this time from demographic changes. Meanwhile there will be widespread disillusionment with Trump as his lies unravel.

The Dems can't rely on demographics to win it for them. If Trump does bring back jobs from Mexico and China and congress approves his $600bn programme then the economy will go into overdrive for the last two years of this term, 4-5% growth rates plus 2-3% inflation and higher interest rates. In that a lot of black and Latino voters will feel the benefits, especially given that they stand to benefit the most from the infrastructure gains.

Looks like the end of right wing economics!

Trump hasn't run on the right for many issues. Protectionism, government largesse, higher wages are all on the left. Why do you think so many House republicans opposed him in the primaries and in the race?

This is Nixon goes to China stuff. If the left had proposed the sort of reflation Trump is planning it would have been told it was living in la la land.

Alistair

MarqueeMark said:

not_on_fire said:

I had such a lucky escape.... I was in heavily on Clinton as a result of the Luntz tweets and similar sentiment elsewhere. But a combination of this site and CNN's excellent coverage helped me reverse my position before it was too late and make a tidy profit.

Not just the Luntz tweets - the messages coming out of the Trump war room on the night were that he "needed a miracle".

Well, he got one. Divine intervention on that scale is difficult to plug into your betting portfolio!

The Trump Nevada law suit about the early voting screamed to me about a campaign that thought it was going to lose. I was wrong.

Theuniondivvie

Patrick said:

Maybe they can unify around a theme of 'you can say how you really feel and discuss any issues you like without some whiney fuck telling you are terrible because of it'. .

What a bunch of 'whiney fuck' snowflakes.

MarqueeMark

The_Apocalypse said:

MarqueeMark said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Southam, I really don't think a lot of these Trump voters have truly considered the implications of his presidency. Can see a lot of people regretting voting for him in the coming years.

For Trump voters, read what Brexit voters have had to endure for the past months.

"Bless them, for they know not what they do...."

Ever thought that they voted as they did because the other side failed to make a convincing argument to win their vote? That Brexit and Trump happened not because their supporters were dumb or hoodwinked, but because they carefully weighed up the two opposing choices - and made a considered, valid judgment call?

I don't think they are dumb or have been hoodwinked. But I do think they don't believe that Trump will go through with several of things he has said.

They probably still have low expectations of Trump's ability to deliver. His novelty was that at least he was LISTENING to them.