A combination of social conservatism and Keynesian economics has won it for Trump.
Isn't that what Blue Labour was meant to offer? Would we have won last year if Ed had stuck with it?
I'm sure a Nuttall-led UKIP will be offering the same combo across the Labour heartlands in 2020.
Yes, which is why I think Labour are buggered assuming Nutall wins. He's got the accent and he'll have the policies vs an unpatriotic ultra liberal who wants to have unlimited migration.
In 20 years time do we have a GOP (UKIP) vs Conservatives (Democrats) situation ?
If UKIP actually become an actual force (And I agree they could do under Nuttall) then I think perhaps the right of the Tories joins them whilst gaining the orange bookers and Blairites. The conservatives are then fighting elections from the LEFT of the political centre, which has itself swing to about Michael Gove !
Just thinking out loud here.
Nuttall wants to abolish the NHS.
The idea that working class voters will blindly vote for someone with a Scouse accent without examining his beliefs and policies is so utterly patronising it is unbelievable.
Ha, ha - so now technology companies are part of the liberal left. Superb!
I'm happy with people using the term liberal but what exactly do right and left refer to anymore? Is big business now on the left? Mass labour on the right?
I'm sorry to be slow/ignorant. As a non-punter I am just wondering whether anyone has yet offered a market (Is that the word?) on whether Trump will not get a second term.
I see fasil Islam is still spreading the nonsense about the order in which trump phoned world leaders ....in comparison, us media second story last night was trump inviting may to be first to meet trump in person.
he really is flogging a dead horse.
Trump didnt phone Merkel, Hollande, Juncker the president of China or any other number of world leaders so his erratic style is just that.
That is exactly what the US media said...he isn't following convention on lots of things...the standard transition team meeting was not the norm.
Thiel is a great guy to have on board. Everything I've read says he's planet sized intellect and business nous. That he really disliked Gawker prying into his own life just convinced him to support Hulk Hogan over that sex tape.
Yep, he's a bully who uses his wealth to close down opinions he does not like.
Ha, ha - so now technology companies are part of the liberal left. Superb!
Are you deliberately stupid this morning?
Zuckerberg and Eric Schmidt helped Hillary's campaign directly. They made donations, gave her their private jets and did her database work. Twitter removed every pro Trump trending topic and banned or shadow banned the biggest Trump supporters.
They are people, not companies. Hillary Clinton is not left wing.
She's a left wing neo-con hawk.
Which confused politics may be why she came across as having no credo other than personal enrichment.
Sterling up to 1.162 against the Euro and 1.264 against the dollar. Is Brexit Britain the new safe haven?
Trump's victory certainly does seem to have given a boost to sterling. Presumably the markets are seeing some advantage ensuing for the British economy. Are they anticipating more generous (for the UK) trade deals with the US under his leadership?
"Note, for example, how Trump picked up so many votes in blue- collar, traditionally Democrat-voting states like Pennsylvania — where the coal industry has been ruined by the fluffy eco-policies advocated by rich liberals like Hillary.
Funny how a blue-collar troubadour like Bruce Springsteen didn’t see that one coming: maybe he should get out of his bubble more.
I see fasil Islam is still spreading the nonsense about the order in which trump phoned world leaders ....in comparison, us media second story last night was trump inviting may to be first to meet trump in person.
As long as he visits canada first I don't care who he phones when. Trudeau has issued the invite to come at his earliest opportunity. go donald go.
Ha, ha - so now technology companies are part of the liberal left. Superb!
Are you deliberately stupid this morning?
Zuckerberg and Eric Schmidt helped Hillary's campaign directly. They made donations, gave her their private jets and did her database work. Twitter removed every pro Trump trending topic and banned or shadow banned the biggest Trump supporters.
They are people, not companies. Hillary Clinton is not left wing.
Woulr a more suitable description suggest that there is a serious disconnect between the employees of these kind of companies & the inhabitants of the rust belt, in the same way as there is between many working for big companies in London and inhabitants of places like Stoke?
It's not left / right, as rust belt and stoke traditionally vote "left", it is those winning from globalisation vs the losers. I would also suggest that one set is more "liberal" on modern social issues / immigration eg your Facebook lot have got very concerned about what pronouns are appropriate for various LGBTQ groups, I highly doubt those in the rust belt give a shit.
Ha, ha - so now technology companies are part of the liberal left. Superb!
Are you deliberately stupid this morning?
Zuckerberg and Eric Schmidt helped Hillary's campaign directly. They made donations, gave her their private jets and did her database work. Twitter removed every pro Trump trending topic and banned or shadow banned the biggest Trump supporters.
They are people, not companies. Hillary Clinton is not left wing.
She's a left wing neo-con hawk.
Which confused politics may be why she came across as having no credo other than personal enrichment.
She was a poor candidate. Trump, of course, is exactly the same, but he makes no secret of it. Clinton's mistake was to pretend that personal enrichment was not part of what she is. And that was doubly stupid because the vast majority of people would not have held it against her.
The idea that working class voters will blindly vote for someone with a Scouse accent without examining his beliefs and policies is so utterly patronising it is unbelievable.
Ha, ha - so now technology companies are part of the liberal left. Superb!
Are you deliberately stupid this morning?
Zuckerberg and Eric Schmidt helped Hillary's campaign directly. They made donations, gave her their private jets and did her database work. Twitter removed every pro Trump trending topic and banned or shadow banned the biggest Trump supporters.
They are people, not companies. Hillary Clinton is not left wing.
She's a left wing neo-con hawk.
Which confused politics may be why she came across as having no credo other than personal enrichment.
If we're in a world where someone can be considered left wing whilst telling their corporate friends they should have a public and a private persona I'm not sure what the term means anymore.
I'm sorry to be slow/ignorant. As a non-punter I am just wondering whether anyone has yet offered a market (Is that the word?) on whether Trump will not get a second term.
The idea that working class voters will blindly vote for someone with a Scouse accent without examining his beliefs and policies is so utterly patronising it is unbelievable.
Southam, I really don't think a lot of these Trump voters have truly considered the implications of his presidency. Can see a lot of people regretting voting for him in the coming years.
I think most voters are like that. A vote is a complicated thing - sometimes positive, often negative, frequently tribal. It can be driven by hate, anger, ignorance, optimism , pessimism, hope, and plenty more besides. Aside from a few big promises - most of which will be abandoned - Trump maintained a (probably deliberately) blank policy canvass. His supporters knew that. But he spoke their language. Whether that will be enough to get him through the next four years with his coalition intact will be interesting to see.
+1
You always have such a great way of putting things into context.
A combination of social conservatism and Keynesian economics has won it for Trump.
Isn't that what Blue Labour was meant to offer? Would we have won last year if Ed had stuck with it?
I'm sure a Nuttall-led UKIP will be offering the same combo across the Labour heartlands in 2020.
Labour were never winning under Ed M. And this country isn't obsessed with abortion etc. unlike a lot of the evangelicals in America.
Ed was a numpty. People saw him as a numpty and he sounded like a numpty.
Ed was seen as joke by every demographic in the country. A lot of my friends who like me, are left wing laughed at him most of the time.
It's easy to say that in retrospect. It wasn't seen like that by a lot of people at the time, not least because virtually no polling pointed to a Con majority and so there was a clear possibility of a Lab minority or Lab-led coalition government.
If these last 14 months have proven anything (apart from the further fallibility of the polls), it's that being laughed at is no barrier to being elected.
Tbf throughout the entire course of his leadership I recall Ed M struggling to be taken seriously by many. I remember the jokes about him looking like Wallace, that Jeremy Paxman interview, and him tripping off the QT stage. And let's not forget that bloody stone of course.
Trump was laughed at initially, but as time has gone on more and more people have started to take him seriously. It wasn't like that with Ed M.
I'm sorry to be slow/ignorant. As a non-punter I am just wondering whether anyone has yet offered a market (Is that the word?) on whether Trump will not get a second term.
Sterling up to 1.162 against the Euro and 1.264 against the dollar. Is Brexit Britain the new safe haven?
Trump's victory certainly does seem to have given a boost to sterling. Presumably the markets are seeing some advantage ensuing for the British economy. Are they anticipating more generous (for the UK) trade deals with the US under his leadership?
I think Trump's stance on NATO, upcoming elections in Europe and Trump being seen as much less favourable to the EU than Clinton.
There is another theory that western nations are all facing populist uprisings, ours has already happened and we're on the other side so there is less uncertainty. In France markets are now taking Le Pen seriously where they weren't before and the No vote in Italy could have unpredictable consequences. That's all weighing on the Euro which is down in general.
On topic, whilst Betfair still had a lot wrong (lots of value [still!] about on certainties, and the popular vote market was insane) the main market was at least a lot more sensible than Brexit.
Ha, ha - so now technology companies are part of the liberal left. Superb!
Are you deliberately stupid this morning?
Zuckerberg and Eric Schmidt helped Hillary's campaign directly. They made donations, gave her their private jets and did her database work. Twitter removed every pro Trump trending topic and banned or shadow banned the biggest Trump supporters.
They are people, not companies. Hillary Clinton is not left wing.
Woulr a more suitable description suggest that there is a serious disconnect between the employees of these kind of companies & the inhabitants of the rust belt, in the same way as there is between many working for big companies in London and inhabitants of places like Stoke?
It's not left / right, as rust belt and stoke traditionally vote "left", it is those winning from globalisation vs the losers. I would also suggest that one set is more "liberal" on modern social issues / immigration eg your Facebook lot have got very concerned about what pronouns are appropriate for various LGBTQ groups, I highly doubt those in the rust belt give a shit.
Employees at Silicon Valley companies face very high living costs and incessant global competition. They are hugely vulnerable to downturns and completely expendable, as the number of Indian cab drivers in places like Palo Alto, Menlo Park and San Jose demonstrate. Clearly, though, they see the world very differently to people living and working in the rust belt.
I'm sorry to be slow/ignorant. As a non-punter I am just wondering whether anyone has yet offered a market (Is that the word?) on whether Trump will not get a second term.
Betfair have a market up.
Trump: 3.35
Very big, imo. But you may have better things to do with your money for the next four years
I would just like to publicly say that I was clearly wrong when I called the election for Hillary in the early hours of Wednesday morning. I took the exit polls at face value, which - when combined with the Democrats early voting advantage - suggested that Florida and North Carolina were near certain to fall into Hillary's column.
My saving grace was that the scales fell from my eyes very quickly. If you look at my posts on the day, by 1:40am I was cashing out of my Clinton position at a profit, and by 2:20am was signficantly long Trump.
Those who followed by posts will not have lost money.
On topic, whilst Betfair still had a lot wrong (lots of value [still!] about on certainties, and the popular vote market was insane) the main market was at least a lot more sensible than Brexit.
Do you think 1.03 will come back for Hillary PV ?
I dunno. Clearly some big hitters got involved last night. Just laid the 38 myself. No idea when Betfair will call it (they still haven't settled the Senate, ffs).
I see fasil Islam is still spreading the nonsense about the order in which trump phoned world leaders ....in comparison, us media second story last night was trump inviting may to be first to meet trump in person.
As long as he visits canada first I don't care who he phones when. Trudeau has issued the invite to come at his earliest opportunity. go donald go.
Trump will meet Farage before Trudeau.
Priorities, priorities.
Farage doesn't even speak for UKIP, let alone Britain.
I would just like to publicly say that I was clearly wrong when I called the election for Hillary in the early hours of Wednesday morning. I took the exit polls at face value, which - when combined with the Democrats early voting advantage - suggested that Florida and North Carolina were near certain to fall into Hillary's column.
My saving grace was that the scales fell from my eyes very quickly. If you look at my posts on the day, by 1:40am I was cashing out of my Clinton position at a profit, and by 2:20am was signficantly long Trump.
Those who followed by posts will not have lost money.
Yes, your tip on rural votes being much stronger than expected in VA and FL made me pile into Trump at 6.5, was the best call of the night I think.
On topic, whilst Betfair still had a lot wrong (lots of value [still!] about on certainties, and the popular vote market was insane) the main market was at least a lot more sensible than Brexit.
Do you think 1.03 will come back for Hillary PV ?
I dunno. Clearly some big hitters got involved last night. Just laid the 38 myself. No idea when Betfair will call it (they still haven't settled the Senate, ffs).
Mr. Urquhart, Leonard Cohen = LC = Leave Campaign.
The links are clear.
Mr Dancer, it is an extremely dangerous time for the left. GE 2015, Brexit, Trump...now wall to wall Leonard Cohen tributes on the radio. I think we need to take the left's belts and shoe laces, just in case....
On topic, whilst Betfair still had a lot wrong (lots of value [still!] about on certainties, and the popular vote market was insane) the main market was at least a lot more sensible than Brexit.
Do you think 1.03 will come back for Hillary PV ?
I dunno. Clearly some big hitters got involved last night. Just laid the 38 myself. No idea when Betfair will call it (they still haven't settled the Senate, ffs).
£22 of my 1-30 matched
I was simultaneously laying 1.03 and 20 last night.
I'm sorry to be slow/ignorant. As a non-punter I am just wondering whether anyone has yet offered a market (Is that the word?) on whether Trump will not get a second term.
Thanks both. It's gonna develop I feel. To his advantage he's got both sides of the Congress under a rough Republican control, so he'll really have to cock up to be impeached. One must hope that he does much (light years) better than his previous pronouncements would lead one to think.
I would just like to publicly say that I was clearly wrong when I called the election for Hillary in the early hours of Wednesday morning. I took the exit polls at face value, which - when combined with the Democrats early voting advantage - suggested that Florida and North Carolina were near certain to fall into Hillary's column.
My saving grace was that the scales fell from my eyes very quickly. If you look at my posts on the day, by 1:40am I was cashing out of my Clinton position at a profit, and by 2:20am was signficantly long Trump.
Those who followed by posts will not have lost money.
I wasn't entirely convinced by your argument that it was over but once one of Trump's people was quoted as saying they needed a miracle I felt I could safely go to bed.........
Sterling up to 1.162 against the Euro and 1.264 against the dollar. Is Brexit Britain the new safe haven?
Trump's victory certainly does seem to have given a boost to sterling. Presumably the markets are seeing some advantage ensuing for the British economy. Are they anticipating more generous (for the UK) trade deals with the US under his leadership?
I think Trump's stance on NATO, upcoming elections in Europe and Trump being seen as much less favourable to the EU than Clinton.
There is another theory that western nations are all facing populist uprisings, ours has already happened and we're on the other side so there is less uncertainty. In France markets are now taking Le Pen seriously where they weren't before and the No vote in Italy could have unpredictable consequences. That's all weighing on the Euro which is down in general.
The euro been pretty steady at around $1.10 +/- 5% for almost a couple of years now. It's sterling that has been bouncing around wildly against the other currencies.
Did Trump win or did Hillary lose? The stats on here yesterday seemed to indicate that she just couldn't turn them out. I suspect if Obama ran again he'd have won and the story would be 'Tolerant America rejects hate'
Just had a very open and successful presidential election. Now professional protesters, incited by the media, are protesting. Very unfair! 0 replies . 47,762 retweets 143,332 likes
In other news, Nicole Scherzinger was filming a clip for the X Factor in my sister's pub yesterday. The Fiddlers may become world famous, though I guess everyone will be watching Strictly.
Just had a very open and successful presidential election. Now professional protesters, incited by the media, are protesting. Very unfair! 0 replies . 47,762 retweets 143,332 likes
Did Trump win or did Hillary lose? The stats on here yesterday seemed to indicate that she just couldn't turn them out. I suspect if Obama ran again he'd have won and the story would be 'Tolerant America rejects hate'
It could well be a story of both...Clinton didn't get turn out (she did far worse with African Americans) despite demographics being in her favour, but Trump definitely won over far more unionized labour than a recent Republicans ever have (I believe somebody posted he got 50%), as well as he won a higher percentage of Latinos and Asians.
Just had a very open and successful presidential election. Now professional protesters, incited by the media, are protesting. Very unfair! 0 replies . 47,762 retweets 143,332 likes
Sterling up to 1.162 against the Euro and 1.264 against the dollar. Is Brexit Britain the new safe haven?
Trump's victory certainly does seem to have given a boost to sterling. Presumably the markets are seeing some advantage ensuing for the British economy. Are they anticipating more generous (for the UK) trade deals with the US under his leadership?
I think Trump's stance on NATO, upcoming elections in Europe and Trump being seen as much less favourable to the EU than Clinton.
There is another theory that western nations are all facing populist uprisings, ours has already happened and we're on the other side so there is less uncertainty. In France markets are now taking Le Pen seriously where they weren't before and the No vote in Italy could have unpredictable consequences. That's all weighing on the Euro which is down in general.
The euro been pretty steady at around $1.10 +/- 5% for almost a couple of years now. It's sterling that has been bouncing around wildly against the other currencies.
Yes ever since the ECB QE programme the EUR has been trading within a pretty tight band. However, the movements over the last few days since Trump won have been because he is seen as less favourable to the EU and more favourable to the UK and Russia.
I went to bed at 9pm on election night with no intention of getting up. But I woke up at 01:30 and looked at PB on my phone. I saw JackW was commenting so assumed Hillary was going to win. I laid awake for about 10 more minutes before finally deciding to go downstairs and put on the TV. In the time it took me to do that, everything had changed.
Ha, ha - so now technology companies are part of the liberal left. Superb!
Are you deliberately stupid this morning?
Zuckerberg and Eric Schmidt helped Hillary's campaign directly. They made donations, gave her their private jets and did her database work. Twitter removed every pro Trump trending topic and banned or shadow banned the biggest Trump supporters.
They are people, not companies. Hillary Clinton is not left wing.
Woulr a more suitable description suggest that there is a serious disconnect between the employees of these kind of companies & the inhabitants of the rust belt, in the same way as there is between many working for big companies in London and inhabitants of places like Stoke?
It's not left / right, as rust belt and stoke traditionally vote "left", it is those winning from globalisation vs the losers. I would also suggest that one set is more "liberal" on modern social issues / immigration eg your Facebook lot have got very concerned about what pronouns are appropriate for various LGBTQ groups, I highly doubt those in the rust belt give a shit.
Employees at Silicon Valley companies face very high living costs and incessant global competition. They are hugely vulnerable to downturns and completely expendable, as the number of Indian cab drivers in places like Palo Alto, Menlo Park and San Jose demonstrate. Clearly, though, they see the world very differently to people living and working in the rust belt.
That is true, but they also work in an environment where a) you can earn a lot of money, b) the sector is booming and plenty of jobs and c) people see there are still opportunities to become millionaire / billionaires...not only do they have the right skills for the moment, but they have access to people with the capital.
It is still the land of the American dream...tough, competitive, but rewards are available for those that are smart and work hard (no matter race, religion, gender). Trump has tapped into places where they don't feel that is true.
Just had a very open and successful presidential election. Now professional protesters, incited by the media, are protesting. Very unfair! 0 replies . 47,762 retweets 143,332 likes
Diddums
With him in charge america is in freefall decline instead of just relative slow decline. Many people can't see that yet but give it a couple years and their blinders will come crashing down.
I'm sorry to be slow/ignorant. As a non-punter I am just wondering whether anyone has yet offered a market (Is that the word?) on whether Trump will not get a second term.
Thanks both. It's gonna develop I feel. To his advantage he's got both sides of the Congress under a rough Republican control, so he'll really have to cock up to be impeached. One must hope that he does much (light years) better than his previous pronouncements would lead one to think.
I think that having both houses of Congress on his side is actually a disadvantage. He needs checks and balances. As it is he'll have nobody but himself to blame (although that won't stop him blaming others).
Just had a very open and successful presidential election. Now professional protesters, incited by the media, are protesting. Very unfair! 0 replies . 47,762 retweets 143,332 likes
Diddums
With him in charge america is in freefall decline instead of just relative slow decline. Many people can't see that yet but give it a couple years and their blinders will come crashing down.
Ha, ha - so now technology companies are part of the liberal left. Superb!
Are you deliberately stupid this morning?
Zuckerberg and Eric Schmidt helped Hillary's campaign directly. They made donations, gave her their private jets and did her database work. Twitter removed every pro Trump trending topic and banned or shadow banned the biggest Trump supporters.
They are people, not companies. Hillary Clinton is not left wing.
Woulr a more suitable description suggest that there is a serious disconnect between the employees of these kind of companies & the inhabitants of the rust belt, in the same way as there is between many working for big companies in London and inhabitants of places like Stoke?
It's not left / right, as rust belt and stoke traditionally vote "left", it is those winning from globalisation vs the losers. I would also suggest that one set is more "liberal" on modern social issues / immigration eg your Facebook lot have got very concerned about what pronouns are appropriate for various LGBTQ groups, I highly doubt those in the rust belt give a shit.
Employees at Silicon Valley companies face very high living costs and incessant global competition. They are hugely vulnerable to downturns and completely expendable, as the number of Indian cab drivers in places like Palo Alto, Menlo Park and San Jose demonstrate. Clearly, though, they see the world very differently to people living and working in the rust belt.
That is true, but they also work in an environment where a) you can earn a lot of money, b) the sector is booming and plenty of jobs and c) people see there are still opportunities to become millionaire / billionaires...not only do they have the right skills for the moment, but they have access to people with the capital.
It is still the land of the American dream...tough, competitive, but rewards are available for those that are smart and work hard (no matter race, religion, gender). Trump has tapped into places where they don't feel that is true.
Yep - all true. Trump has tapped into something very real, there is no denying that. But he now has to deliver. Watch this space.
Like various Brexiteers, a lot of the Trumpers still seem very angry despite having won. Anyone got a rough timescale for when the anger subsides?
Or when it gets directed back at Trump in spades for failing to deliver on the sky high expectations he has created, as he concentrates on feathering his own nest very much in the style of Putin and corrupt third world politicians who he admires as a consequence. A tax dodging politician who railed against a fixed political system that has indeed turned out to be fixed in his favour. The test is whether he can deliver real increases in median US incomes, and if not the rust belt is going to revert back to their traditional allegiances.
The silver lining for the Democrats is that they must surely now have realised that radical agendas can win elections, and with Clinton gone they have a good opportunity to win in 2020 with a charismatic candidate who can genuinely capture those dashed hopes of change, so long as that candidate isn't hobbled by the sort of establishment baggage (plus the extraordinary saga around Wikileaks to boot) that did for Clinton. Moreover, there is potential for a reaction against Republicans on a scale that could deliver a Senate and Congressional majority for the Democrats come 2020, in contrast to a Hillary Clinton presidency which would by contrast have been hobbled by those bodies from day one from 2016.
Yep - all true. Trump has tapped into something very real, there is no denying that. But he now has to deliver. Watch this space.
Oh thats a totally different thing...if he is sensible (holds breath) he drops the most outrageous stuff, and goes bigly on infrastructure. America does actually need it and will produce jobs.
It might only be a sticking plaster though...America education system is appalling, outside of the top universities. Far too many really poorly educated people, without the skills for the modern world.
Just had a very open and successful presidential election. Now professional protesters, incited by the media, are protesting. Very unfair! 0 replies . 47,762 retweets 143,332 likes
Diddums
With him in charge america is in freefall decline instead of just relative slow decline. Many people can't see that yet but give it a couple years and their blinders will come crashing down.
Just had a very open and successful presidential election. Now professional protesters, incited by the media, are protesting. Very unfair! 0 replies . 47,762 retweets 143,332 likes
Diddums
With him in charge america is in freefall decline instead of just relative slow decline. Many people can't see that yet but give it a couple years and their blinders will come crashing down.
In the short termTrump will probably do fine, with taxcuts for the rich and corporations, and some infrastructure spending. In the long term he may wellbankrupt America. His spending programme sounds a lot like Abenomics without domestic savings.
"Note, for example, how Trump picked up so many votes in blue- collar, traditionally Democrat-voting states like Pennsylvania — where the coal industry has been ruined by the fluffy eco-policies advocated by rich liberals like Hillary.
Funny how a blue-collar troubadour like Bruce Springsteen didn’t see that one coming: maybe he should get out of his bubble more.
The US coal industry has been ruined by cheap shale gas, not environmental policies.
This is an inconvenient truth that it seems people in coal country has grasped. Better, cheaper hydrocarbons have forced out costlier, worse hydrocarbons.
In other news, Nicole Scherzinger was filming a clip for the X Factor in my sister's pub yesterday. The Fiddlers may become world famous, though I guess everyone will be watching Strictly.
Latino decisions with massive amounts of denial that 25-27% of Latino voters turned out for Trump. They can't understand why so they choose to ignore it.
"Note, for example, how Trump picked up so many votes in blue- collar, traditionally Democrat-voting states like Pennsylvania — where the coal industry has been ruined by the fluffy eco-policies advocated by rich liberals like Hillary.
Funny how a blue-collar troubadour like Bruce Springsteen didn’t see that one coming: maybe he should get out of his bubble more.
The US coal industry has been ruined by cheap shale gas, not environmental policies.
Unlike the UK, where it was ruined by ideology, and we imported coal from Russia and Colombia instead.
And as wind power (and to some extent solar, though that will take longer) gets cheaper, it's not going to make a comeback. Natural gas will be the fossil fuel of choice; coal may have a mini revival, but it won't last, and significant new capacity is unlikely to get built (other than as replacement for obsolete plants).
Environmental rules have had some effect, but I doubt even Trump will come out in favour of mercury in the atmosphere: https://www.epa.gov/mats
Just had a very open and successful presidential election. Now professional protesters, incited by the media, are protesting. Very unfair! 0 replies . 47,762 retweets 143,332 likes
Diddums
With him in charge america is in freefall decline instead of just relative slow decline. Many people can't see that yet but give it a couple years and their blinders will come crashing down.
You hope.
yes your blinders too.
I have no blinders. I am open to the idea that the orange racist misogynist might actually turn out to be a half decent President. You? Not so much....
I see the talking heads on bbc news at the moment don't really get it.
This discussion on BBC just now was the wailing of the losers rather than a balanced discusssion on the way forward. Similar discussion just now on Sky. The broadcast media do not get it and show every sign of denial at the events of this week
Why are the BBC News, ITV News, SKY News and C4 News all in the same left leaning metrosexual zone? Three of them need to attract viewers and advertising, so why be out of line with their potentially largest audience? Their producers seem to have tin ears and just run lines and interviews that agree with their own politics.
Broadcasting from London they can only get interviewees who live in London - the liberal elite.
Latino decisions with massive amounts of denial that 25-27% of Latino voters turned out for Trump. They can't understand why so they choose to ignore it.
Well if they're right then the Democrats have an even bigger problem than the exits suggested with white voters and black voters.
Texas, Arizona, Nevada, Colorado trending Hillary against the national swing suggests they may be right.
Its terrible news for the Democrats if they are though.
@JohnRentoul: 75 people, virtually the entire membership of RSL, better known as Militant tendency, have applied to rejoin the Labour Party – news release
I'm sorry to be slow/ignorant. As a non-punter I am just wondering whether anyone has yet offered a market (Is that the word?) on whether Trump will not get a second term.
Thanks both. It's gonna develop I feel. To his advantage he's got both sides of the Congress under a rough Republican control, so he'll really have to cock up to be impeached. One must hope that he does much (light years) better than his previous pronouncements would lead one to think.
I think that having both houses of Congress on his side is actually a disadvantage. He needs checks and balances. As it is he'll have nobody but himself to blame (although that won't stop him blaming others).
To what extent are they really on his side though. There might be 51 GOP senators but are there 50+ senators who voted for him to be POTUS?
He'll struggle with some policies, including some high-profile ones like the wall, for lack of congressional agreement.
Trump does not have a fleshed-out political movement behind him. He is not leader of the GOP as someone is in a parliamentary system, with all the patronage that gives. He doesn't control candidate selection, nor congress's policy platform. Capturing the White House is a major achievement but just as House and Senate Republicans will have to work with him, so he will have to work with them (or else accept that stuff won't get done).
Looks like the Democrats may have enough votes in the Senate to filibuster in order to prevent a Trump nominee getting into the Supreme Court.
Harry Reid ended the filibuster for all posts except the Supreme Court and threatened to do it for that too. So it won't burn any political capital to run with his idea and reduce it to s simple up/down vote.
@PeterfromPutney tipped Nevada (and Florida) as the Clinton firewall. I got a decent amount on Nevada at 16/1 on Ladbrokes. I promised him a drink if I won, -two drinks if LibDems win Richmond Park but I haven't seen him on this site since Trump won.
Latino decisions with massive amounts of denial that 25-27% of Latino voters turned out for Trump. They can't understand why so they choose to ignore it.
The Democrats ignored the fact that deportations were up to record, record levels under Obama (and wow, that sure did him a lot of good among swing voters.)
But a four or five percent improvement on Romney isn't a cue to ignore the emerging Mexican-American vote in Arizona and Texas either.
"The test is whether he can deliver real increases in median US incomes, and if not the rust belt is going to revert back to their traditional allegiances. "
Assuming, for the sake of argument, we accept the first part of your opening paragraph, I am not sure the final conclusion holds true.
It was politicians of these traditional allegiances that created the policies that led to the conditions that have generated their frustration and anger, which led them to vote for someone who was offering something different. If that offer i not in fact delivered why should they go back to the people that caused the original problems. Furthermore, once one has broken faith once it is very much easier to do it a second time.
Perhaps the mould of politics has been broken and the machine politicians, of which Clinton was an prime example, have become unelectable, at least as far a the presidency is concerned. Maybe.
I'm sorry to be slow/ignorant. As a non-punter I am just wondering whether anyone has yet offered a market (Is that the word?) on whether Trump will not get a second term.
Thanks both. It's gonna develop I feel. To his advantage he's got both sides of the Congress under a rough Republican control, so he'll really have to cock up to be impeached. One must hope that he does much (light years) better than his previous pronouncements would lead one to think.
I think that having both houses of Congress on his side is actually a disadvantage. He needs checks and balances. As it is he'll have nobody but himself to blame (although that won't stop him blaming others).
Both houses are not on his side, they are establishment Republican. They have deep philosophical differences with much of Trump's rhetoric, which is not nearly as anti-government intervention as traditional Republican world-view. If he's serious about what he's said there's going to be a lot of tense negotiation with his supposed own side.
The Cleveland Browns despite being 0-10 can still mathematically win the superbowl.
9,999-1 best price !
I don't watch a great deal of American football but from what I've seen they can't tackle, catch, run or kick. Which suggests this is not a great bet even at that price!
I would just like to publicly say that I was clearly wrong when I called the election for Hillary in the early hours of Wednesday morning. I took the exit polls at face value....
Noted and very welcome.
But, the elephant in the room for PB moderators etc is the lack of contrary voices and articles on PB on major matters. We had with Brexit a ratio of at least 3:1 in the views of pro-Remain vs pro-Leave in the articles published. We have now had the USA Presidential elections where the articles seem to have been almost 10:1* for a Clinton win. This is not the Guardian.
We need more diversity in the articles.
* I may be exagerating but that is what it feels like.
Just looking through my bets, if I'd held my nerve and stuck to my instincts on rural turnout not being picked up by the polls I'd have been up £8.3k, I blinked when the Trump camp conceded and the exit polls did exactly what the rest of the polls did and ignored the rural vote.
Comments
https://twitter.com/Nick_Pettigrew/status/796998164112871424
The idea that working class voters will blindly vote for someone with a Scouse accent without examining his beliefs and policies is so utterly patronising it is unbelievable.
Well, not yet....
Which confused politics may be why she came across as having no credo other than personal enrichment.
Unlike the UK, where it was ruined by ideology, and we imported coal from Russia and Colombia instead.
Priorities, priorities.
It's not left / right, as rust belt and stoke traditionally vote "left", it is those winning from globalisation vs the losers. I would also suggest that one set is more "liberal" on modern social issues / immigration eg your Facebook lot have got very concerned about what pronouns are appropriate for various LGBTQ groups, I highly doubt those in the rust belt give a shit.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leigh_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
You always have such a great way of putting things into context. Tbf throughout the entire course of his leadership I recall Ed M struggling to be taken seriously by many. I remember the jokes about him looking like Wallace, that Jeremy Paxman interview, and him tripping off the QT stage. And let's not forget that bloody stone of course.
Trump was laughed at initially, but as time has gone on more and more people have started to take him seriously. It wasn't like that with Ed M.
Trump: 3.35
There is another theory that western nations are all facing populist uprisings, ours has already happened and we're on the other side so there is less uncertainty. In France markets are now taking Le Pen seriously where they weren't before and the No vote in Italy could have unpredictable consequences. That's all weighing on the Euro which is down in general.
OR CAN WE?!
"I'm your man..."
The links are clear.
My saving grace was that the scales fell from my eyes very quickly. If you look at my posts on the day, by 1:40am I was cashing out of my Clinton position at a profit, and by 2:20am was signficantly long Trump.
Those who followed by posts will not have lost money.
Anyway, I'm off. The pre-qualifying piece will probably be tomorrow at the usual sort of time, but the pre-race piece may well be Sunday morning.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KG1zbEJydoY
(Joke. Ish...)
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump 9h9 hours ago
Just had a very open and successful presidential election. Now professional protesters, incited by the media, are protesting. Very unfair!
0 replies . 47,762 retweets 143,332 likes
Due to extensive criminal and dangerous behavior, protest is now considered a riot. Crowd has been advised.
It is still the land of the American dream...tough, competitive, but rewards are available for those that are smart and work hard (no matter race, religion, gender). Trump has tapped into places where they don't feel that is true.
The silver lining for the Democrats is that they must surely now have realised that radical agendas can win elections, and with Clinton gone they have a good opportunity to win in 2020 with a charismatic candidate who can genuinely capture those dashed hopes of change, so long as that candidate isn't hobbled by the sort of establishment baggage (plus the extraordinary saga around Wikileaks to boot) that did for Clinton. Moreover, there is potential for a reaction against Republicans on a scale that could deliver a Senate and Congressional majority for the Democrats come 2020, in contrast to a Hillary Clinton presidency which would by contrast have been hobbled by those bodies from day one from 2016.
It might only be a sticking plaster though...America education system is appalling, outside of the top universities. Far too many really poorly educated people, without the skills for the modern world.
http://tinyurl.com/zaa6mst
And it depends on the running order. Will Ryan Lawrie be thrown under the Strictly bus? There is only a 10 minute overlap this week, so perhaps not.
Jess Salomon
The Canadian immigration website is still down, because that is how Canada builds a wall: Quietly and passive aggressively.
Stacy Washington
Stop blaming white people for Trumps win last night. America voted for actual change. https://t.co/UlISJcOIIg
Almost 100k retweets
Environmental rules have had some effect, but I doubt even Trump will come out in favour of mercury in the atmosphere:
https://www.epa.gov/mats
Broadcasting from London they can only get interviewees who live in London - the liberal elite.
Texas, Arizona, Nevada, Colorado trending Hillary against the national swing suggests they may be right.
Its terrible news for the Democrats if they are though.
He'll struggle with some policies, including some high-profile ones like the wall, for lack of congressional agreement.
Trump does not have a fleshed-out political movement behind him. He is not leader of the GOP as someone is in a parliamentary system, with all the patronage that gives. He doesn't control candidate selection, nor congress's policy platform. Capturing the White House is a major achievement but just as House and Senate Republicans will have to work with him, so he will have to work with them (or else accept that stuff won't get done).
But a four or five percent improvement on Romney isn't a cue to ignore the emerging Mexican-American vote in Arizona and Texas either.
The Cleveland Browns despite being 0-10 can still mathematically win the superbowl.
9,999-1 best price !
"The test is whether he can deliver real increases in median US incomes, and if not the rust belt is going to revert back to their traditional allegiances. "
Assuming, for the sake of argument, we accept the first part of your opening paragraph, I am not sure the final conclusion holds true.
It was politicians of these traditional allegiances that created the policies that led to the conditions that have generated their frustration and anger, which led them to vote for someone who was offering something different. If that offer i not in fact delivered why should they go back to the people that caused the original problems. Furthermore, once one has broken faith once it is very much easier to do it a second time.
Perhaps the mould of politics has been broken and the machine politicians, of which Clinton was an prime example, have become unelectable, at least as far a the presidency is concerned. Maybe.
Frank Luntz @FrankLuntz 14h14 hours ago
Total campaign spending:
2016
• Clinton: $450 million
• Trump: $239 million
2012
• Obama: $721.4
• Romney: $449.5
$239 m must be the cheapest campaign in years.
But, the elephant in the room for PB moderators etc is the lack of contrary voices and articles on PB on major matters. We had with Brexit a ratio of at least 3:1 in the views of pro-Remain vs pro-Leave in the articles published. We have now had the USA Presidential elections where the articles seem to have been almost 10:1* for a Clinton win. This is not the Guardian.
We need more diversity in the articles.
* I may be exagerating but that is what it feels like.