"I’ll give you my thoughts, in no particular order.
1. If this were anyone else, the election would be over. But keep in mind that Trump doesn’t need to outrun the bear. He only needs to outrun his camping buddy. There is still plenty of time for him to dismantle Clinton. If you think things are interesting now, just wait. There is lots more entertainment coming.
2. This was not a Trump leak. No one would invite this sort of problem into a marriage.
3. I assume that publication of this recording was okayed by the Clinton campaign. And if not, the public will assume so anyway. That opens the door for Trump to attack in a proportionate way. No more mister-nice-guy. Gloves are off. Nothing is out of bounds. It is fair to assume that Bill and Hillary are about to experience the worst weeks of their lives.
4. If nothing new happens between now and election day, Clinton wins. The odds of nothing new happening in that timeframe is exactly zero...
"I’ll give you my thoughts, in no particular order.
1. If this were anyone else, the election would be over. But keep in mind that Trump doesn’t need to outrun the bear. He only needs to outrun his camping buddy. There is still plenty of time for him to dismantle Clinton. If you think things are interesting now, just wait. There is lots more entertainment coming.
2. This was not a Trump leak. No one would invite this sort of problem into a marriage.
3. I assume that publication of this recording was okayed by the Clinton campaign. And if not, the public will assume so anyway. That opens the door for Trump to attack in a proportionate way. No more mister-nice-guy. Gloves are off. Nothing is out of bounds. It is fair to assume that Bill and Hillary are about to experience the worst weeks of their lives.
4. If nothing new happens between now and election day, Clinton wins. The odds of nothing new happening in that timeframe is exactly zero...
"No more mister-nice-guy.". Which planet are you on?
Trump video statement 'I have never said I am a perfect person. I have said and done things I regret and the words released on this decade old videos are one of them. I said it, I was wrong, I apologise.My travels have changed me. I spent time with grieving mothers who have lost their children, laid off workers whose jobs have gone to other countries and people from all walks of life who want a better future. I have gotten to know the great people of this country and will never, ever let you down.' https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/784609194234306560
What will he say when the second and then the third and then the fourth video comes out ?
Trump is finished, NBC has so many tapes of him they will bury him like Nixon.
Rubbish. He has made his statement end of, Trump's voters know what he was like, this will not change their views. However the WikiLeaks on Hillary are also only just beginning and will continue through to election day
trumps core vote isnt enough to win.
If a higher than expected wwc vote is combined with a higher black vote for Trump than Romney (which Rasmussen has shown) it could be
he probably shouldnt have banged on about birtherism for 8 years or said yesterday that the central park 5 were still guilty.
The few black voters who may vote for him may have liked Obama but have no time for Hillary and are concerned about crime
2-5%, as the average of all polls have it (not just an unreliable repub leaning one)
It is starting to look as though that by voting LEAVE the less educated masses have made the more intelligent economic and social decision than the so called sophisticated urban intelligentsia who voted REMAIN.
Discuss.
* 10pm on the day of the polls: £1GBP=$1.5USD * Today: £1GBP=1.24USD
Mainly driven by expectations of rising rates in the US and a reduction of rates in the UK. Not much to do with Brexit directly.
Actually, I think it 's driven by the reason that Robert Smithson gave - a big current account deficit. Which would be case inside or outside the EU. Brexit simply brought it to a head.
When the wave of inflation (5%+) from more expensive imports hits us over the next few months, it is very likely that interest rates will have to go up, possibly sharply, which will strengthen sterling (and bugger exports).
There's no reason to expect inflation to hit 5%+ in coming months.
OK. 4%+
Imports are 20%+ of our GDP. Sterling has depreciated by 20%+ since the referendum. That will put inflation up by 4%+ It will take a few weeks or months for that inflation to come through in oil prices at the pumps and food prices in the shops. But come it will.
Mr. Max, if they launch a coup and try to stop our departure it'll destroy the party. If they launch a coup and are seen as softer than May there'll be a backbench challenge. If they launch a coup and fail it'll damage the party significantly.
Surely the timing is to exert pressure to improve (as they see it) any deal, then axe May once the deal is done, and she's taken the heat for it.
Yes, I think the latter is what we're looking at, the liberal wing will begin to align to ensure we don't have stupid policies like the foreign workers register being considered by the leadership. Once Brexit is complete I think they might go in to depose her if the poll rating is poor.
The liberal wing is dead for at least a decade, if May is deposed it will only be by a hardline Brexiteer if she is seen as too soft
TBF those of liberal political views should never have joined the Tory party in the first place; it's another side effect of our voting system that ambitious liberals often choose either conservatism or socialism because the career prospects are so much better. Both lots are now unhappy trapped in parties that don't share their instincts, but they do at least have political jobs unlike most LibDems.
I really don't get this discussion. May may or not turn out to be more right wing than Cameron on Brexit and immigration. But on all other things so far she seems to be very much a one-nation Tory parked firmly astride the centre line - more so than Cameron who basically only gave it lip service.
Defining someone as liberal or not based on their position on either Brexit (what has that per se got to do with liberalism?) or immigration (which deals with liberalism only in relation to foreigners, not citizens) seems rather idiotic. I am much more interested in their liberalism as it pertains to domestic issues, and there, be it social issues or the economy, at her word (too early to judge on her actions) May seems to the left of Cameron.
Speaking personally that is the worst of all worlds for me. I'm a right-wing liberal Conservative. I believe in centre-right economics and open immigration. May seems a step in the wrong direction everywhere for me so far.
The fact she used "libertarian" as an insult during her leader's speech in Wednesday was very disappointing. The Tory party has long been home for libertarians like myself. Even Blair never insulted socialists like she insulted libertarianism.
It is starting to look as though that by voting LEAVE the less educated masses have made the more intelligent economic and social decision than the so called sophisticated urban intelligentsia who voted REMAIN.
Discuss.
* 10pm on the day of the polls: £1GBP=$1.5USD * Today: £1GBP=1.24USD
Mainly driven by expectations of rising rates in the US and a reduction of rates in the UK. Not much to do with Brexit directly.
Actually, I think it 's driven by the reason that Robert Smithson gave - a big current account deficit. Which would be case inside or outside the EU. Brexit simply brought it to a head.
When the wave of inflation (5%+) from more expensive imports hits us over the next few months, it is very likely that interest rates will have to go up, possibly sharply, which will strengthen sterling (and bugger exports).
There's no reason to expect inflation to hit 5%+ in coming months.
OK. 4%+
Imports are 20%+ of our GDP. Sterling has depreciated by 20%+ since the referendum. That will put inflation up by 4%+ It will take a few weeks or months for that inflation to come through in oil prices at the pumps and food prices in the shops. But come it will.
Sterling has not depreciated by 20%+ it has depreciated by 14%
Sterling rose artificially on the day to $1.50 it hadn't been at that level for months and is an improper comparison point. The pre-referendum exchange rate was more like $1.45
It is starting to look as though that by voting LEAVE the less educated masses have made the more intelligent economic and social decision than the so called sophisticated urban intelligentsia who voted REMAIN.
Discuss.
* 10pm on the day of the polls: £1GBP=$1.5USD * Today: £1GBP=1.24USD
Mainly driven by expectations of rising rates in the US and a reduction of rates in the UK. Not much to do with Brexit directly.
Actually, I think it 's driven by the reason that Robert Smithson gave - a big current account deficit. Which would be case inside or outside the EU. Brexit simply brought it to a head.
When the wave of inflation (5%+) from more expensive imports hits us over the next few months, it is very likely that interest rates will have to go up, possibly sharply, which will strengthen sterling (and bugger exports).
There's no reason to expect inflation to hit 5%+ in coming months.
OK. 4%+
Imports are 20%+ of our GDP. Sterling has depreciated by 20%+ since the referendum. That will put inflation up by 4%+ It will take a few weeks or months for that inflation to come through in oil prices at the pumps and food prices in the shops. But come it will.
A similar depreciation in 1992 was followed by 2.5% inflation in 1993, and 2% in 1994. Low commodity prices and subdued inflationary pressures make a big spike in inflation unlikely.
Trump video statement 'I have never said I am a perfect person. I have said and done things I regret and the words released on this decade old videos are one of them. I said it, I was wrong, I apologise.My travels have changed me. I spent time with grieving mothers who have lost their children, laid off workers whose jobs have gone to other countries and people from all walks of life who want a better future. I have gotten to know the great people of this country and will never, ever let you down.' https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/784609194234306560
What will he say when the second and then the third and then the fourth video comes out ?
Trump is finished, NBC has so many tapes of him they will bury him like Nixon.
Rubbish. He has made his statement end of, Trump's voters know what he was like, this will not change their views. However the WikiLeaks on Hillary are also only just beginning and will continue through to election day
trumps core vote isnt enough to win.
If a higher than expected wwc vote is combined with a higher black vote for Trump than Romney (which Rasmussen has shown) it could be
he probably shouldnt have banged on about birtherism for 8 years or said yesterday that the central park 5 were still guilty.
The few black voters who may vote for him may have liked Obama but have no time for Hillary and are concerned about crime
2-5%, as the average of all polls have it (not just an unreliable repub leaning one)
It is one of the latest polls on it and more may well vote for him in the privacy of the booth, even if they tell friends and family they will vote for Hillary
Trump video statement 'I have never said I am a perfect person. I have said and done things I regret and the words released on this decade old videos are one of them. I said it, I was wrong, I apologise.My travels have changed me. I spent time with grieving mothers who have lost their children, laid off workers whose jobs have gone to other countries and people from all walks of life who want a better future. I have gotten to know the great people of this country and will never, ever let you down.' https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/784609194234306560
What will he say when the second and then the third and then the fourth video comes out ?
Trump is finished, NBC has so many tapes of him they will bury him like Nixon.
Rubbish. He has made his statement end of, Trump's voters know what he was like, this will not change their views. However the WikiLeaks on Hillary are also only just beginning and will continue through to election day
Trump has, up until now, managed to lead the media on a merry dance for the last year. The roles are now reversed; he's finished.
I disagree, his video statement was actually quite effective, the liberal media think they have destroyed Trump, his supporters are likely to disagree. The reasons why the Trump phenomenon first appeared have not disappeared
Professionally speaking - it was a solid and credible response to a gotcha.
My timeline is drowning in Hillary fan shouting sexist!!!!!!!!!!! And Trumpers throwing Hillary videos of child rapist getting off whilst she laughs at her own cleverness.
It's brutal - oh and Juanita Broderick is on the warpath too.
"I’ll give you my thoughts, in no particular order.
1. If this were anyone else, the election would be over. But keep in mind that Trump doesn’t need to outrun the bear. He only needs to outrun his camping buddy. There is still plenty of time for him to dismantle Clinton. If you think things are interesting now, just wait. There is lots more entertainment coming.
2. This was not a Trump leak. No one would invite this sort of problem into a marriage.
3. I assume that publication of this recording was okayed by the Clinton campaign. And if not, the public will assume so anyway. That opens the door for Trump to attack in a proportionate way. No more mister-nice-guy. Gloves are off. Nothing is out of bounds. It is fair to assume that Bill and Hillary are about to experience the worst weeks of their lives.
4. If nothing new happens between now and election day, Clinton wins. The odds of nothing new happening in that timeframe is exactly zero...
wow. Scott adams is an idiot.
No, everything is open now, the Clintons have closets full of skeletons too and this gives the Trump campaign and surrogates freedom to go through them all
It is starting to look as though that by voting LEAVE the less educated masses have made the more intelligent economic and social decision than the so called sophisticated urban intelligentsia who voted REMAIN.
Discuss.
* 10pm on the day of the polls: £1GBP=$1.5USD * Today: £1GBP=1.24USD
Mainly driven by expectations of rising rates in the US and a reduction of rates in the UK. Not much to do with Brexit directly.
Actually, I think it 's driven by the reason that Robert Smithson gave - a big current account deficit. Which would be case inside or outside the EU. Brexit simply brought it to a head.
When the wave of inflation (5%+) from more expensive imports hits us over the next few months, it is very likely that interest rates will have to go up, possibly sharply, which will strengthen sterling (and bugger exports).
There's no reason to expect inflation to hit 5%+ in coming months.
OK. 4%+
Imports are 20%+ of our GDP. Sterling has depreciated by 20%+ since the referendum. That will put inflation up by 4%+ It will take a few weeks or months for that inflation to come through in oil prices at the pumps and food prices in the shops. But come it will.
Inflation is currently at 0.6%. So you are predicting 4.6% within 12 months? Would you like a bet on that? Let's make it a little fairer. Fancy a bet that CPI inflation will not exceed 4% in the next 12 months?
Trump video statement 'I have never said I am a perfect person. I have said and done things I regret and the words released on this decade old videos are one of them. I said it, I was wrong, I apologise.My travels have changed me. I spent time with grieving mothers who have lost their children, laid off workers whose jobs have gone to other countries and people from all walks of life who want a better future. I have gotten to know the great people of this country and will never, ever let you down.' https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/784609194234306560
What will he say when the second and then the third and then the fourth video comes out ?
Trump is finished, NBC has so many tapes of him they will bury him like Nixon.
Rubbish. He has made his statement end of, Trump's voters know what he was like, this will not change their views. However the WikiLeaks on Hillary are also only just beginning and will continue through to election day
Trump has, up until now, managed to lead the media on a merry dance for the last year. The roles are now reversed; he's finished.
I disagree, his video statement was actually quite effective, the liberal media think they have destroyed Trump, his supporters are likely to disagree. The reasons why the Trump phenomenon first appeared have not disappeared
Professionally speaking - it was a solid and credible response to a gotcha.
My timeline is drowning in Hillary fan shouting sexist!!!!!!!!!!! And Trumpers throwing Hillary videos of child rapist getting off whilst she laughs at her own cleverness.
It's brutal - oh and Juanita Broderick is on the warpath too.
''My timeline is drowning in Hillary fan shouting sexist!!!!!!!!!!! And Trumpers throwing Hillary videos of child rapist getting off whilst she laughs at her own cleverness.''
For me the shrillness of the anti-Trump campaign shows only one thing. They are sh8t scared of him winning. If Clinton were really miles ahead there would be no need for this latest video. Given Bill's record, its clearly a risk
I'm not sure bringing the conversation around to sexism is the right strategy for the Clinton campaign.
Given the Clintons' record with some women, it could be a serious error.
Some people only talk about grabbing p8ssy. Others actually do it.
I could never vote for Trump. The guy is odious. He treats women as sexual objects for his own pleasure.
But... Hillary has stayed married to a man who is odious, who treats women as sexual objects for his own pleasure. Because staying with Bill was Hillary's best shot at getting the top job.
Some may think there is the stench of hypocrisy in there...
I could not vote for Hillary either, for a range of issues. I'd rather spoil my ballot. But I can't see how Trump now being outed as an asshole means a winning hand for her. It's been priced in since day one.
It is starting to look as though that by voting LEAVE the less educated masses have made the more intelligent economic and social decision than the so called sophisticated urban intelligentsia who voted REMAIN.
Discuss.
* 10pm on the day of the polls: £1GBP=$1.5USD * Today: £1GBP=1.24USD
Mainly driven by expectations of rising rates in the US and a reduction of rates in the UK. Not much to do with Brexit directly.
Actually, I think it 's driven by the reason that Robert Smithson gave - a big current account deficit. Which would be case inside or outside the EU. Brexit simply brought it to a head.
When the wave of inflation (5%+) from more expensive imports hits us over the next few months, it is very likely that interest rates will have to go up, possibly sharply, which will strengthen sterling (and bugger exports).
There's no reason to expect inflation to hit 5%+ in coming months.
OK. 4%+
Imports are 20%+ of our GDP. Sterling has depreciated by 20%+ since the referendum. That will put inflation up by 4%+ It will take a few weeks or months for that inflation to come through in oil prices at the pumps and food prices in the shops. But come it will.
Sterling has not depreciated by 20%+ it has depreciated by 14%
Sterling rose artificially on the day to $1.50 it hadn't been at that level for months and is an improper comparison point. The pre-referendum exchange rate was more like $1.45
Speaking personally that is the worst of all worlds for me. I'm a right-wing liberal Conservative. I believe in centre-right economics and open immigration. May seems a step in the wrong direction everywhere for me so far.
The fact she used "libertarian" as an insult during her leader's speech in Wednesday was very disappointing. The Tory party has long been home for libertarians like myself. Even Blair never insulted socialists like she insulted libertarianism.
My remark was about May's politics, not mine. My starting point is libertarianism, moderated by the need to address externalities, information imbalances, public goods and bad. I am very much in the government should be as small as possible while addressing the above.
It is starting to look as though that by voting LEAVE the less educated masses have made the more intelligent economic and social decision than the so called sophisticated urban intelligentsia who voted REMAIN.
Discuss.
* 10pm on the day of the polls: £1GBP=$1.5USD * Today: £1GBP=1.24USD
Mainly driven by expectations of rising rates in the US and a reduction of rates in the UK. Not much to do with Brexit directly.
Actually, I think it 's driven by the reason that Robert Smithson gave - a big current account deficit. Which would be case inside or outside the EU. Brexit simply brought it to a head.
When the wave of inflation (5%+) from more expensive imports hits us over the next few months, it is very likely that interest rates will have to go up, possibly sharply, which will strengthen sterling (and bugger exports).
There's no reason to expect inflation to hit 5%+ in coming months.
OK. 4%+
Imports are 20%+ of our GDP. Sterling has depreciated by 20%+ since the referendum. That will put inflation up by 4%+ It will take a few weeks or months for that inflation to come through in oil prices at the pumps and food prices in the shops. But come it will.
Inflation is currently at 0.6%. So you are predicting 4.6% within 12 months? Would you like a bet on that? Let's make it a little fairer. Fancy a bet that CPI inflation will not exceed 4% in the next 12 months?
I've come down to +3.5% inflation. I'm tempted but there's not a lot of value (and I may be wrong!). See FT article suggesting 3.5% inflation.
It is starting to look as though that by voting LEAVE the less educated masses have made the more intelligent economic and social decision than the so called sophisticated urban intelligentsia who voted REMAIN.
Discuss.
* 10pm on the day of the polls: £1GBP=$1.5USD * Today: £1GBP=1.24USD
Mainly driven by expectations of rising rates in the US and a reduction of rates in the UK. Not much to do with Brexit directly.
Actually, I think it 's driven by the reason that Robert Smithson gave - a big current account deficit. Which would be case inside or outside the EU. Brexit simply brought it to a head.
When the wave of inflation (5%+) from more expensive imports hits us over the next few months, it is very likely that interest rates will have to go up, possibly sharply, which will strengthen sterling (and bugger exports).
There's no reason to expect inflation to hit 5%+ in coming months.
OK. 4%+
Imports are 20%+ of our GDP. Sterling has depreciated by 20%+ since the referendum. That will put inflation up by 4%+ It will take a few weeks or months for that inflation to come through in oil prices at the pumps and food prices in the shops. But come it will.
Inflation is currently at 0.6%. So you are predicting 4.6% within 12 months? Would you like a bet on that? Let's make it a little fairer. Fancy a bet that CPI inflation will not exceed 4% in the next 12 months?
I've come down to +3.5% inflation. I'm tempted but there's not a lot of value (and I may be wrong!). See FT article suggesting 3.5% inflation.
The impact on inflation isn't much talked about but it is coming. Not sure of the magnitude but it will be material.
3.5% will only happen in the next 12months if the fall in sterling is at least as much again as we have seen so far. That's possible. Not likely but possible.
I'm not sure bringing the conversation around to sexism is the right strategy for the Clinton campaign.
Given the Clintons' record with some women, it could be a serious error.
Some people only talk about grabbing p8ssy. Others actually do it.
I could never vote for Trump. The guy is odious. He treats women as sexual objects for his own pleasure.
But... Hillary has stayed married to a man who is odious, who treats women as sexual objects for his own pleasure. Because staying with Bill was Hillary's best shot at getting the top job.
Some may think there is the stench of hypocrisy in there...
I could not vote for Hillary either, for a range of issues. I'd rather spoil my ballot. But I can't see how Trump now being outed as an asshole means a winning hand for her. It's been priced in since day one.
I am truly glad I don't have a vote in this election. It's really sad to think that Mrs Clinton will probably become the first woman POTUS - I'd so much rather that place in history went to someone more worthwhile.
It is starting to look as though that by voting LEAVE the less educated masses have made the more intelligent economic and social decision than the so called sophisticated urban intelligentsia who voted REMAIN.
Discuss.
* 10pm on the day of the polls: £1GBP=$1.5USD * Today: £1GBP=1.24USD
Mainly driven by expectations of rising rates in the US and a reduction of rates in the UK. Not much to do with Brexit directly.
Actually, I think it 's driven by the reason that Robert Smithson gave - a big current account deficit. Which would be case inside or outside the EU. Brexit simply brought it to a head.
When the wave of inflation (5%+) from more expensive imports hits us over the next few months, it is very likely that interest rates will have to go up, possibly sharply, which will strengthen sterling (and bugger exports).
There's no reason to expect inflation to hit 5%+ in coming months.
OK. 4%+
Imports are 20%+ of our GDP. Sterling has depreciated by 20%+ since the referendum. That will put inflation up by 4%+ It will take a few weeks or months for that inflation to come through in oil prices at the pumps and food prices in the shops. But come it will.
Inflation is currently at 0.6%. So you are predicting 4.6% within 12 months? Would you like a bet on that? Let's make it a little fairer. Fancy a bet that CPI inflation will not exceed 4% in the next 12 months?
I've come down to +3.5% inflation. I'm tempted but there's not a lot of value (and I may be wrong!). See FT article suggesting 3.5% inflation.
I'm not sure bringing the conversation around to sexism is the right strategy for the Clinton campaign.
Given the Clintons' record with some women, it could be a serious error.
Some people only talk about grabbing p8ssy. Others actually do it.
I could never vote for Trump. The guy is odious. He treats women as sexual objects for his own pleasure.
But... Hillary has stayed married to a man who is odious, who treats women as sexual objects for his own pleasure. Because staying with Bill was Hillary's best shot at getting the top job.
Some may think there is the stench of hypocrisy in there...
I could not vote for Hillary either, for a range of issues. I'd rather spoil my ballot. But I can't see how Trump now being outed as an asshole means a winning hand for her. It's been priced in since day one.
Both sides are hypocrites. The Republicans who denounced Bill Clinton's vices; the Democrats who denounce Trump's.
"Each accused the other of unspeakable vices, and both were telling the truth."
Britain has not been able to feed itself since the Late Victorian period. We need to export to feed ourself, if nothing else. The impact on supermarket prices will be significant and will certainly wipe out the effects of recent wage rises. Peoples real incomes are about to fall quite noticeably.
It is has every chance of making Brexit more fraught, I can't see Labour benefiting though but it could strengthen soft Brexit if polling sends the frighteners through the Tory Party.
It all depends how sustained the fall in the currency is. The greater the threats against the UK and the more hardline the Brexit strategy seems to be from the Uk, then markets will keep selling the UK.
Mr. Max, if they launch a coup and try to stop our departure it'll destroy the party. If they launch a coup and are seen as softer than May there'll be a backbench challenge. If they launch a coup and fail it'll damage the party significantly.
Surely the timing is to exert pressure to improve (as they see it) any deal, then axe May once the deal is done, and she's taken the heat for it.
Yes, I think the latter is what we're looking at, the liberal wing will begin to align to ensure we don't have stupid policies like the foreign workers register being considered by the leadership. Once Brexit is complete I think they might go in to depose her if the poll rating is poor.
The liberal wing is dead for at least a decade, if May is deposed it will only be by a hardline Brexiteer if she is seen as too soft
TBF those of liberal political views should never have joined the Tory party in the first place; it's another side effect of our voting system that ambitious liberals often choose either conservatism or socialism because the career prospects are so much better. Both lots are now unhappy trapped in parties that don't share their instincts, but they do at least have political jobs unlike most LibDems.
I really don't get this discussion. May may or not turn out to be more right wing than Cameron on Brexit and immigration. But on all other things so far she seems to be very much a one-nation Tory parked firmly astride the centre line - more so than Cameron who basically only gave it lip service.
Defining someone as liberal or not based on their position on either Brexit (what has that per se got to do with liberalism?) or immigration (which deals with liberalism only in relation to foreigners, not citizens) seems rather idiotic. I am much more interested in their liberalism as it pertains to domestic issues, and there, be it social issues or the economy, at her word (too early to judge on her actions) May seems to the left of Cameron.
Speaking personally that is the worst of all worlds for me. I'm a right-wing liberal Conservative. I believe in centre-right economics and open immigration. May seems a step in the wrong direction everywhere for me so far.
The fact she used "libertarian" as an insult during her leader's speech in Wednesday was very disappointing. The Tory party has long been home for libertarians like myself. Even Blair never insulted socialists like she insulted libertarianism.
Yes but most voters now want restricted immigration and centrist economics, so May is obviously going to go where the voters are
Britain has not been able to feed itself since the Late Victorian period. We need to export to feed ourself, if nothing else. The impact on supermarket prices will be significant and will certainly wipe out the effects of recent wage rises. Peoples real incomes are about to fall quite noticeably.
It is has every chance of making Brexit more fraught, I can't see Labour benefiting though but it could strengthen soft Brexit if polling sends the frighteners through the Tory Party.
It all depends how sustained the fall in the currency is. The greater the threats against the UK and the more hardline the Brexit strategy seems to be from the Uk, then markets will keep selling the UK.
People won't care about eating costing more, they'll be too busy celebrating the FREEDOM of Brexit. Or something.
Trump video statement 'I have never said I am a perfect person. I have said and done things I regret and the words released on this decade old videos are one of them. I said it, I was wrong, I apologise.My travels have changed me. I spent time with grieving mothers who have lost their children, laid off workers whose jobs have gone to other countries and people from all walks of life who want a better future. I have gotten to know the great people of this country and will never, ever let you down.' https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/784609194234306560
What will he say when the second and then the third and then the fourth video comes out ?
Trump is finished, NBC has so many tapes of him they will bury him like Nixon.
Rubbish. He has made his statement end of, Trump's voters know what he was like, this will not change their views. However the WikiLeaks on Hillary are also only just beginning and will continue through to election day
No amount of statements will prevent what is coming, and as a result no one has taken notice of Wikileaks and probably no one will.
There is an avalanche coming towards Trump, we can all see it, and Wikileaks can't stop the avalanche.
It is an avalanche for the liberal elites yes who will loathe Trump more than ever but it is not much different to what Bill Clinton has done. The average working class voter in Ohio or North Carolina are voting Trump warts and all because they are fed up with globalisation, outsourcing and low wages and too many immigrants, on that basis the latest WikiLeaks on Hillary's calls for 'open borders' and 'open trade' will be more damaging for her in the longer term whatever short term damage Trump suffers
a) he wasnt winning anyway. b) he had 45% of women roughly? after pussygate, it will be 25-30%. Doesnt matter how he does with WWC with no degrees.
a) No but he is almost as close to Hillary as Leave was to Remain b) We will see, he will still have a big lead with men and I would also not be too surprised he keeps the support of a fair few wwc women too
Leave had lots and lots and lots of poll leads. Lots of them.
Britain has not been able to feed itself since the Late Victorian period. We need to export to feed ourself, if nothing else. The impact on supermarket prices will be significant and will certainly wipe out the effects of recent wage rises. Peoples real incomes are about to fall quite noticeably.
It is has every chance of making Brexit more fraught, I can't see Labour benefiting though but it could strengthen soft Brexit if polling sends the frighteners through the Tory Party.
It all depends how sustained the fall in the currency is. The greater the threats against the UK and the more hardline the Brexit strategy seems to be from the Uk, then markets will keep selling the UK.
We have a trade deficit with the EU, they have a trade surplus with us, we will obviously have to increase our trade with the rest of the world longer term post Brexit but in economic terms the EU will be damaged by hard Brexit too
Kevin Alcock LA Times Tracker (8th Oct) Trump 47% Clinton 44% - Trump extends his LA Times lead from 2 to 3.
I wonder if at the end of the campaign the LA Times will print a correction announcing that the work experience kid mixed up the Trump and Clinton totals in their model.
Kevin Alcock LA Times Tracker (8th Oct) Trump 47% Clinton 44% - Trump extends his LA Times lead from 2 to 3.
I wonder if at the end of the campaign the LA Times will print a correction announcing that the work experience kid mixed up the Trump and Clinton totals in their model.
Maybe they'll end up being right. That would be funny.
Kevin Alcock LA Times Tracker (8th Oct) Trump 47% Clinton 44% - Trump extends his LA Times lead from 2 to 3.
I wonder if at the end of the campaign the LA Times will print a correction announcing that the work experience kid mixed up the Trump and Clinton totals in their model.
Maybe they'll end up being right. That would be funny.
If that happens the rest of the US pollling industry may as well disband.
Britain has not been able to feed itself since the Late Victorian period. We need to export to feed ourself, if nothing else. The impact on supermarket prices will be significant and will certainly wipe out the effects of recent wage rises. Peoples real incomes are about to fall quite noticeably.
It is has every chance of making Brexit more fraught, I can't see Labour benefiting though but it could strengthen soft Brexit if polling sends the frighteners through the Tory Party.
It all depends how sustained the fall in the currency is. The greater the threats against the UK and the more hardline the Brexit strategy seems to be from the Uk, then markets will keep selling the UK.
We have a trade deficit with the EU, they have a trade surplus with us, we will obviously have to increase our trade with the rest of the world longer term post Brexit but in economic terms the EU will be damaged by hard Brexit too
But that has nothing to do with the impact on import prices due to currency changes. It might be better a few years down the line, but a few years real income decline due to high inflation will promote voter unrest. If the markets think that investing in British assets is not worth it and no longer considers the UK a safe heaven, then our current account deficit will cut us deep. We depend on foreign investment to be able to pay for food and oil as well a cheap TV's and clothes.
Also the idea that greater exports to China and Brazil will compensate to a fall of trade with Europe is fanciful. It is simple fact that nations trade the most with neighbouring countries , distance still matters a great deal in the real world.
For our long term health we need to export more to Europe and import less, to restore our economy to balance.
Sterling rose artificially on the day to $1.50 it hadn't been at that level for months and is an improper comparison point. The pre-referendum exchange rate was more like $1.45
It is starting to look as though that by voting LEAVE the less educated masses have made the more intelligent economic and social decision than the so called sophisticated urban intelligentsia who voted REMAIN.
Discuss.
* 10pm on the day of the polls: £1GBP=$1.5USD * Today: £1GBP=1.24USD
Mainly driven by expectations of rising rates in the US and a reduction of rates in the UK. Not much to do with Brexit directly.
ad.
When the wave of inflation (5%+) from more expensive imports hits us over the next few months, it is very likely that interest rates will have to go up, possibly sharply, which will strengthen sterling (and bugger exports).
There's no reason to expect inflation to hit 5%+ in coming months.
OK. 4%+
Imports are 20%+ of our GDP. Sterling has depreciated by 20%+ since the referendum. That will put inflation up by 4%+ It will take a few weeks or months for that inflation to come through in oil prices at the pumps and food prices in the shops. But come it will.
Sterling has not depreciated by 20%+ it has depreciated by 14%
Sterling rose artificially on the day to $1.50 it hadn't been at that level for months and is an improper comparison point. The pre-referendum exchange rate was more like $1.45
During both 2014 and 2014 £ was between $1.5 and $1.7. As the Brexit vote loomed in 2016 it began to dip. I would suggest the natural pre-Brexit rate was actually around $1.55
It's nice to see that a PB consensus has broken out between the Remainers and Hard Leavers: the free-trade Soft Leavers were witless dupes.
Nope. Free trade soft leave was and is the most obvious option. The only reason it is currently being ignored is because of a stupid obsession with immigration. It is sad to see Remainders talking up the end of freedom of movement like it is a good thing simply because they think it will prove them right about the downside of Brexit. If they had any honour at all they would push hard for the soft Brexit approach but since they are basically unscrupulous shits it is no surprise they are more interested in revenge.
That will be the same Mrs Thatcher who's government subsidised the coal industry and who left office with manufacturing output at a then all time:
Now certainly some industries and some areas did struggle during Thatcher's government but that has always been the case - the UK coal industry had peak employment in 1914 and shipbuilding and textiles were in steep decline from the 1960s onwards.
But the 1980s and 1990s did have the opportunity for self-advancement for the average person that we haven't had during the last 15 years - home ownership is a good indicator of this.
Nor did the 1980s and 1990s have the gaping chasm between the average person and the 1% that exists now.
There are a couple of things that need to be remembered to avoid falling into the post hoc, ergo propter hoc fallacy.
Firstly, the trends you identify have happened almost everywhere in the world, from countries with minimal immigration, and who have resisted globalisation (Japan), to the US and the UK.
Those who have avoided it have been those blessed with massive mineral wealth at a time when commodity prices were booming (Australian and Canada), and those whose education systems did the best job of training the next 75% (Germany and Switzerland).
Secondly, the 80s and 90s might have seen the well being of many improve, but it came on the back of a big drawdawn of the wealth of the UK. In the early 1980s, the UK was in credit with the rest of the world to the tune of about 60 to 70% of GDP. So, every year, money from overseas assets flowed into the UK economy. The massive explosion in consumer debt and the decline of the savings rate meant that we've gone from being in credit to the rest of the world, to being severely in debt. And our big current account deficit (close to 7% of GDP in the first half of the year) means this gets worse every year. To close this gap is going to require genuine austerity at some point.
Certainly. I've said for years here and elsewhere that at some point we are going to have to rebalance the economy and face the genuine austerity which goes with it.
For this reason we need to focus more on quality of life factors rather than the obsession with economic growth (though the growth worshippers never concern themselves with growth per capita) and societal harmony.
And there are few things more damaging of quality of life and societal harmony than uncontrolled immigration and the pressure it brings on housing, public services, transport and the environment. Not to mention its contribution in increasing inequality.
It should be remembered that the UK's current account was in near balance in 1997:
Britain has not been able to feed itself since the Late Victorian period. We need to export to feed ourself, if nothing else. The impact on supermarket prices will be significant and will certainly wipe out the effects of recent wage rises. Peoples real incomes are about to fall quite noticeably.
It is has every chance of making Brexit more fraught, I can't see Labour benefiting though but it could strengthen soft Brexit if polling sends the frighteners through the Tory Party.
It all depends how sustained the fall in the currency is. The greater the threats against the UK and the more hardline the Brexit strategy seems to be from the Uk, then markets will keep selling the UK.
We have a trade deficit with the EU, they have a trade surplus with us, we will obviously have to increase our trade with the rest of the world longer term post Brexit but in economic terms the EU will be damaged by hard Brexit too
But that has nothing to do with the impact on import prices due to currency changes. It might be better a few years down the line, but a few years real income decline due to high inflation will promote voter unrest. If the markets think that investing in British assets is not worth it and no longer considers the UK a safe heaven, then our current account deficit will cut us deep. We depend on foreign investment to be able to pay for food and oil as well a cheap TV's and clothes.
Also the idea that greater exports to China and Brazil will compensate to a fall of trade with Europe is fanciful. It is simple fact that nations trade the most with neighbouring countries , distance still matters a great deal in the real world.
For our long term health we need to export more to Europe and import less, to restore our economy to balance.
Voters voted for more immigration controls, so there will be no unrest if there will is implemented, if they want cheaper prices they will need to buy more British goods. In actual fact less than half of our exports now go to the EU, of course we will still trade with them but already we are looking to the rest of the world too.
Britain has not been able to feed itself since the Late Victorian period. We need to export to feed ourself, if nothing else. The impact on supermarket prices will be significant and will certainly wipe out the effects of recent wage rises. Peoples real incomes are about to fall quite noticeably.
It is has every chance of making Brexit more fraught, I can't see Labour benefiting though but it could strengthen soft Brexit if polling sends the frighteners through the Tory Party.
It all depends how sustained the fall in the currency is. The greater the threats against the UK and the more hardline the Brexit strategy seems to be from the Uk, then markets will keep selling the UK.
We have a trade deficit with the EU, they have a trade surplus with us, we will obviously have to increase our trade with the rest of the world longer term post Brexit but in economic terms the EU will be damaged by hard Brexit too
But that has nothing to do with the impact on import prices due to currency changes. It might be better a few years down the line, but a few years real income decline due to high inflation will promote voter unrest. If the markets think that investing in British assets is not worth it and no longer considers the UK a safe heaven, then our current account deficit will cut us deep. We depend on foreign investment to be able to pay for food and oil as well a cheap TV's and clothes.
Also the idea that greater exports to China and Brazil will compensate to a fall of trade with Europe is fanciful. It is simple fact that nations trade the most with neighbouring countries , distance still matters a great deal in the real world.
For our long term health we need to export more to Europe and import less, to restore our economy to balance.
Voters voted for more immigration controls, so there will be no unrest if there will is implemented, if they want cheaper prices they will need to buy more British goods. In actual fact less than half of our exports now go to the EU, of course we will still trade with them but already we are looking to the rest of the world too.
Sorry, when was this immigration controls referendum you speak of?
Confound you, David Herdson! I was putting together a piece on this very subject.
Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are both older than their respective parties' nominees in 2000 are today. Similarly, Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa May are both older than their respective party leaders at the 2001 general election are today.
Meanwhile, last year only one MP elected in mainland Britain in 2015 had a party leader who was aged over 50, and even that party leader had only just passed that milestone.
In Britain at least, this is a sudden change.
A sudden change - or a reversion to the norm, after the shiny smily youngness of Blair and Cameron proved less than satisfying?
A sudden change. If Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa May contest a 2020 election, they will have the oldest combined age of the two main party leaders at an election since Churchill and Attlee.
Yeah, but the population has aged a lot since Churchill and Attlee. Apples and oranges....
Life expectancy has improved a lot too - a baby boy born in 1945 had an average life expectancy of 63 - today its 79.......
Not in Glasgow.
That Glasgow life expectancy 'fact' is a bit misleading - the ward it refers to had a large hostel for drug addicts & derelicts who, not unsurprisingly tend to die young, and skews the stats.
Yes, Glasgow life expectancy is lower than it should be - even controlling for smoking, drinking & other factors - but it has improved - by 4 years in the last 20, while the UK has improved by 5.
The great benefit of the union , Better Together my arse. Everything funnelled south and how it shows. 4 on to 50 against 5 on to 79............ equality in motion.
But Malcolm, Health is fully devolved - why is the SNP failing Scotland?
The money is not , power devolved is power retained. A dog on a leash is limited to where it can go.
But the SNP could increase income tax rates and alter how much money flows to the Scottish government.
That means a cut in the block grant and income tax is a fraction of what is needed to fix an economy. It would also be stupid as it makes you uncompetitive, only an idiot would propose that as a reasonable idea. Why do you think it was devolved , try thinking.
Confound you, David Herdson! I was putting together a piece on this very subject.
Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are both older than their respective parties' nominees in 2000 are today. Similarly, Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa May are both older than their respective party leaders at the 2001 general election are today.
Meanwhile, last year only one MP elected in mainland Britain in 2015 had a party leader who was aged over 50, and even that party leader had only just passed that milestone.
In Britain at least, this is a sudden change.
A sudden change - or a reversion to the norm, after the shiny smily youngness of Blair and Cameron proved less than satisfying?
A sudden change. If Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa May contest a 2020 election, they will have the oldest combined age of the two main party leaders at an election since Churchill and Attlee.
Yeah, but the population has aged a lot since Churchill and Attlee. Apples and oranges....
Life expectancy has improved a lot too - a baby boy born in 1945 had an average life expectancy of 63 - today its 79.......
Not in Glasgow.
That Glasgow life expectancy 'fact' is a bit misleading - the ward it refers to had a large hostel for drug addicts & derelicts who, not unsurprisingly tend to die young, and skews the stats.
Yes, Glasgow life expectancy is lower than it should be - even controlling for smoking, drinking & other factors - but it has improved - by 4 years in the last 20, while the UK has improved by 5.
The great benefit of the union , Better Together my arse. Everything funnelled south and how it shows. 4 on to 50 against 5 on to 79............ equality in motion.
50 to 54 is an 8% increase. 79 to 84 is a 6.3% increase...
numbskull, they live 30 more years you stupid cretinous halfwitted moronic dumpling, does that make it a bit clearer.
Average life expectancy, male born 2012 UK: 78.8 Scotland: 76.6
Trump video statement 'I have never said I am a perfect person. I have said and done things I regret and the words released on this decade old videos are one of them. I said it, I was wrong, I apologise.My travels have changed me. I spent time with grieving mothers who have lost their children, laid off workers whose jobs have gone to other countries and people from all walks of life who want a better future. I have gotten to know the great people of this country and will never, ever let you down.' https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/784609194234306560
What will he say when the second and then the third and then the fourth video comes out ?
Trump is finished, NBC has so many tapes of him they will bury him like Nixon.
Rubbish. He has made his statement end of, Trump's voters know what he was like, this will not change their views. However the WikiLeaks on Hillary are also only just beginning and will continue through to election day
trumps core vote isnt enough to win.
If a higher than expected wwc vote is combined with a higher black vote for Trump than Romney (which Rasmussen has shown) it could be
This higher black vote for Trump idea is delusional, and in any case Trump is preforming WORSE with whites than Romney. But if you're so sure of a Trump win go ahead and put your money where your mouth is.
Sterling rose artificially on the day to $1.50 it hadn't been at that level for months and is an improper comparison point. The pre-referendum exchange rate was more like $1.45
We've had this discussion before and we will again. Below are the rates in dollars for 1GBP on January 1st each year since 2010.
Sources h ttp://www.exchangerates.org.uk/GBP-USD-01_01_2010-exchange-rate-history.html h ttp://www.exchangerates.org.uk/GBP-USD-01_01_2011-exchange-rate-history.html h ttp://www.exchangerates.org.uk/GBP-USD-01_01_2012-exchange-rate-history.html h ttp://www.exchangerates.org.uk/GBP-USD-01_01_2013-exchange-rate-history.html h ttps://www.poundsterlinglive.com/best-exchange-rates/british-pound-to-us-dollar-exchange-rate-on-2014-01-01 h ttps://www.poundsterlinglive.com/best-exchange-rates/british-pound-to-us-dollar-exchange-rate-on-2015-01-01 h ttps://www.poundsterlinglive.com/best-exchange-rates/british-pound-to-us-dollar-exchange-rate-on-2016-01-01 h ttp://www.exchangerates.org.uk/GBP-USD-07_10_2016-exchange-rate-history.html
Trump video statement 'I have never said I am a perfect person. I have said and done things I regret and the words released on this decade old videos are one of them. I said it, I was wrong, I apologise.My travels have changed me. I spent time with grieving mothers who have lost their children, laid off workers whose jobs have gone to other countries and people from all walks of life who want a better future. I have gotten to know the great people of this country and will never, ever let you down.' https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/784609194234306560
At least he can genuinely say 'I did not have sexual relations with that woman'.
but can he say 'I have never kissed a woman or grabbed a woman's pussy without her permission'?
No, he can't . Anyone on here defending Trump please don't complain eith your faux outcry about Muslim gromming gangs in future. Thanx.
Trump video statement 'I have never said I am a perfect person. I have said and done things I regret and the words released on this decade old videos are one of them. I said it, I was wrong, I apologise.My travels have changed me. I spent time with grieving mothers who have lost their children, laid off workers whose jobs have gone to other countries and people from all walks of life who want a better future. I have gotten to know the great people of this country and will never, ever let you down.' https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/784609194234306560
At least he can genuinely say 'I did not have sexual relations with that woman'.
but can he say 'I have never kissed a woman or grabbed a woman's pussy without her permission'?
No, he can't . Anyone on here defending Trump please don't complain eith your faux outcry about Muslim gromming gangs in future. Thanx.
Muslim paedophiles should all be castrated with razor blades and nailed, still bleeding, to a wall.
Britain has not been able to feed itself since the Late Victorian period. We need to export to feed ourself, if nothing else. The impact on supermarket prices will be significant and will certainly wipe out the effects of recent wage rises. Peoples real incomes are about to fall quite noticeably.
It is has every chance of making Brexit more fraught, I can't see Labour benefiting though but it could strengthen soft Brexit if polling sends the frighteners through the Tory Party.
It all depends how sustained the fall in the currency is. The greater the threats against the UK and the more hardline the Brexit strategy seems to be from the Uk, then markets will keep selling the UK.
We have a trade deficit with the EU, they have a trade surplus with us, we will obviously have to increase our trade with the rest of the world longer term post Brexit but in economic terms the EU will be damaged by hard Brexit too
But that has nothing to do with the impact on import prices due to currency changes. It might be better a few years down the line, but a few years real income decline due to high inflation will promote voter unrest. If the markets think that investing in British assets is not worth it and no longer considers the UK a safe heaven, then our current account deficit will cut us deep. We depend on foreign investment to be able to pay for food and oil as well a cheap TV's and clothes.
Also the idea that greater exports to China and Brazil will compensate to a fall of trade with Europe is fanciful. It is simple fact that nations trade the most with neighbouring countries , distance still matters a great deal in the real world.
For our long term health we need to export more to Europe and import less, to restore our economy to balance.
Voters voted for more immigration controls, so there will be no unrest if there will is implemented, if they want cheaper prices they will need to buy more British goods. In actual fact less than half of our exports now go to the EU, of course we will still trade with them but already we are looking to the rest of the world too.
Sorry, when was this immigration controls referendum you speak of?
Sterling rose artificially on the day to $1.50 it hadn't been at that level for months and is an improper comparison point. The pre-referendum exchange rate was more like $1.45
We've had this discussion before and we will again. Below are the rates in dollars for 1GBP on January 1st each year since 2010.
Sources h ttp://www.exchangerates.org.uk/GBP-USD-01_01_2010-exchange-rate-history.html h ttp://www.exchangerates.org.uk/GBP-USD-01_01_2011-exchange-rate-history.html h ttp://www.exchangerates.org.uk/GBP-USD-01_01_2012-exchange-rate-history.html h ttp://www.exchangerates.org.uk/GBP-USD-01_01_2013-exchange-rate-history.html h ttps://www.poundsterlinglive.com/best-exchange-rates/british-pound-to-us-dollar-exchange-rate-on-2014-01-01 h ttps://www.poundsterlinglive.com/best-exchange-rates/british-pound-to-us-dollar-exchange-rate-on-2015-01-01 h ttps://www.poundsterlinglive.com/best-exchange-rates/british-pound-to-us-dollar-exchange-rate-on-2016-01-01 h ttp://www.exchangerates.org.uk/GBP-USD-07_10_2016-exchange-rate-history.html
So, as I said, the fair pre-Brexit exchange rate from which to reckon the damage from the Brexit "SeanT '1964 Zulu movie means Britain is ready to face the challenge of the 2020s'" vote is about $1.55
Trump video statement 'I have never said I am a perfect person. I have said and done things I regret and the words released on this decade old videos are one of them. I said it, I was wrong, I apologise.My travels have changed me. I spent time with grieving mothers who have lost their children, laid off workers whose jobs have gone to other countries and people from all walks of life who want a better future. I have gotten to know the great people of this country and will never, ever let you down.' https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/784609194234306560
What will he say when the second and then the third and then the fourth video comes out ?
Trump is finished, NBC has so many tapes of him they will bury him like Nixon.
Rubbish. He has made his statement end of, Trump's voters know what he was like, this will not change their views. However the WikiLeaks on Hillary are also only just beginning and will continue through to election day
trumps core vote isnt enough to win.
If a higher than expected wwc vote is combined with a higher black vote for Trump than Romney (which Rasmussen has shown) it could be
This higher black vote for Trump idea is delusional, and in any case Trump is preforming WORSE with whites than Romney. But if you're so sure of a Trump win go ahead and put your money where your mouth is.
It is not depending on what poll you look at, certainly no poll had Romney that high with blacks and Trump is doing better with non college educated whites than Romney. I do not think Trump will win but I remain of the view Hillary will win by less than 1%
Britain has not been able to feed itself since the Late Victorian period. We need to export to feed ourself, if nothing else. The impact on supermarket prices will be significant and will certainly wipe out the effects of recent wage rises. Peoples real incomes are about to fall quite noticeably.
It is has every chance of making Brexit more fraught, I can't see Labour benefiting though but it could strengthen soft Brexit if polling sends the frighteners through the Tory Party.
It all depends how sustained the fall in the currency is. The greater the threats against the UK and the more hardline the Brexit strategy seems to be from the Uk, then markets will keep selling the UK.
We have a trade deficit with the EU, they have a trade surplus with us, we will obviously have to increase our trade with the rest of the world longer term post Brexit but in economic terms the EU will be damaged by hard Brexit too
But that has nothing to do with the impact on import prices due to currency changes. It might be better a few years down the line, but a few years real income decline due to high inflation will promote voter unrest. If the markets think that investing in British assets is not worth it and no longer considers the UK a safe heaven, then our current account deficit will cut us deep. We depend on foreign investment to be able to pay for food and oil as well a cheap TV's and clothes.
Also the idea that greater exports to China and Brazil will compensate to a fall of trade with Europe is fanciful. It is simple fact that nations trade the most with neighbouring countries , distance still matters a great deal in the real world.
For our long term health we need to export more to Europe and import less, to restore our economy to balance.
Voters voted for more immigration controls, so there will be no unrest if there will is implemented, if they want cheaper prices they will need to buy more British goods. In actual fact less than half of our exports now go to the EU, of course we will still trade with them but already we are looking to the rest of the world too.
That follows that the public understood that voting to leave would have costs to them selves personally. I think they were promised billions more in public spending instead of going to Europe and preventing of hordes more immigrants from Turkey.
Leave was full of cake and eat promises. Certainly if you got your information from the Tabloids. People like Hannan and Redwood were sidelined a vote to leave was about about making their lives better and improving their standards of living. I think they might have a right to be genuinely angry if real incomes fall by 10% over 3 years.
Britain has not been able to feed itself since the Late Victorian period. We need to export to feed ourself, if nothing else. The impact on supermarket prices will be significant and will certainly wipe out the effects of recent wage rises. Peoples real incomes are about to fall quite noticeably.
It is has every chance of making Brexit more fraught, I can't see Labour benefiting though but it could strengthen soft Brexit if polling sends the frighteners through the Tory Party.
It all depends how sustained the fall in the currency is. The greater the threats against the UK and the more hardline the Brexit strategy seems to be from the Uk, then markets will keep selling the UK.
We have a trade deficit with the EU, they have a trade surplus with us, we will obviously have to increase our trade with the rest of the world longer term post Brexit but in economic terms the EU will be damaged by hard Brexit too
But that has nothing to do with the impact on import prices due to currency changes. It might be better a
Also the idea that greater exports to China and Brazil will compensate to a fall of trade with Europe is fanciful. It is simple fact that nations trade the most with neighbouring countries , distance still matters a great deal in the real world.
For our long term health we need to export more to Europe and import less, to restore our economy to balance.
Voters voted for more immigration controls, so there will be no unrest if there will is implemented, if they want cheaper prices .
That follows that the public understood that voting to leave would have costs to them selves personally. I think they were promised billions more in public spending instead of going to Europe and preventing of hordes more immigrants from Turkey.
Leave was full of cake and eat promises. Certainly if you got your information from the Tabloids. People like Hannan and Redwood were sidelined a vote to leave was about about making their lives better and improving their standards of living. I think they might have a right to be genuinely angry if real incomes fall by 10% over 3 years.
Obviously they did, in fact it is arguably worse than feared given Osborne's promise of economic Armageddon and depression the day after Brexit. They still voted Leave to control immigration and they remain of the view even if it means staying out of the single market. They voted for it, they will get it and given rising terrorism from lack of border controls in the EU and perhaps less competition for jobs due to falling migration a slight fall in their real incomes may well be a price to pay. Leave won and mainly because of immigration, get over it
To get the figures shown in the tweet he's group 6-10 as Immigration and 0-4 as Single Market.
They also provide breakdowns of 8-10, 4-7, 0-3 which makes only UKIP and Cons prioritise Immigration over Single market.
The tweeted 6-10/0-4 bucketing is completely at odds with the earlier questions which asked people to rate importance of various post Brexit issues. Only 18% rated Controlling immigration as the top issue.
Comments
Imports are 20%+ of our GDP. Sterling has depreciated by 20%+ since the referendum. That will put inflation up by 4%+ It will take a few weeks or months for that inflation to come through in oil prices at the pumps and food prices in the shops. But come it will.
The fact she used "libertarian" as an insult during her leader's speech in Wednesday was very disappointing. The Tory party has long been home for libertarians like myself. Even Blair never insulted socialists like she insulted libertarianism.
Sterling rose artificially on the day to $1.50 it hadn't been at that level for months and is an improper comparison point. The pre-referendum exchange rate was more like $1.45
My timeline is drowning in Hillary fan shouting sexist!!!!!!!!!!! And Trumpers throwing Hillary videos of child rapist getting off whilst she laughs at her own cleverness.
It's brutal - oh and Juanita Broderick is on the warpath too.
“Shocked!” By Trump’s Sex Talk… But Here’s Video of Hillary Threatening Sex Assault Victims in 1998
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/10/hillary-shocked-trumps-sex-talk-heres-video-hillary-threatening-sex-assault-victims-1995/
For me the shrillness of the anti-Trump campaign shows only one thing. They are sh8t scared of him winning. If Clinton were really miles ahead there would be no need for this latest video. Given Bill's record, its clearly a risk
But... Hillary has stayed married to a man who is odious, who treats women as sexual objects for his own pleasure. Because staying with Bill was Hillary's best shot at getting the top job.
Some may think there is the stench of hypocrisy in there...
I could not vote for Hillary either, for a range of issues. I'd rather spoil my ballot. But I can't see how Trump now being outed as an asshole means a winning hand for her. It's been priced in since day one.
https://www.ft.com/content/6cbb5c4e-a423-3361-bf6e-344f7380e63b
Off she went with a trumpety-trump
Trump, trump, trump
https://www.ft.com/content/6cbb5c4e-a423-3361-bf6e-344f7380e63b
The impact on inflation isn't much talked about but it is coming. Not sure of the magnitude but it will be material.
Substitute apples from abroad with UK apples - if possible.
Nontheless inflation will rise. A good thing I say as interest rates need to be at around 4% ready for the next recession.
"Each accused the other of unspeakable vices, and both were telling the truth."
NBC
Clinton and Trump debate for the second time tomorrow. Here's how to watch on any device: https://t.co/f6tCHdtJHP #Debates #Decision2016 https://t.co/ApNeQ57pPx
Three Brits (2 Scots) won the Nobel Physics prize:
David J. Thouless of the University of Washington, Seattle
F. Duncan M. Haldane of Princeton University
J. Michael Kosterlitz of Brown University
It is has every chance of making Brexit more fraught, I can't see Labour benefiting though but it could strengthen soft Brexit if polling sends the frighteners through the Tory Party.
It all depends how sustained the fall in the currency is. The greater the threats against the UK and the more hardline the Brexit strategy seems to be from the Uk, then markets will keep selling the UK.
LA Times Tracker (8th Oct) Trump 47% Clinton 44% - Trump extends his LA Times lead from 2 to 3.
https://youtu.be/xQ2DW4seyUs
Also the idea that greater exports to China and Brazil will compensate to a fall of trade with Europe is fanciful. It is simple fact that nations trade the most with neighbouring countries , distance still matters a great deal in the real world.
For our long term health we need to export more to Europe and import less, to restore our economy to balance.
For this reason we need to focus more on quality of life factors rather than the obsession with economic growth (though the growth worshippers never concern themselves with growth per capita) and societal harmony.
And there are few things more damaging of quality of life and societal harmony than uncontrolled immigration and the pressure it brings on housing, public services, transport and the environment. Not to mention its contribution in increasing inequality.
It should be remembered that the UK's current account was in near balance in 1997:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/aa6h/ukea
The borrow to consume economy was the creation of Gordon Brown and continued by George Osborne.
2010: 1.6150
2011: 1.5610
2012: 1.5507
2013: 1.6245
2014: 1.6554
2015: 1.5571
2016: 1.4740
Yesterday: 1.2436
Sources
h ttp://www.exchangerates.org.uk/GBP-USD-01_01_2010-exchange-rate-history.html
h ttp://www.exchangerates.org.uk/GBP-USD-01_01_2011-exchange-rate-history.html
h ttp://www.exchangerates.org.uk/GBP-USD-01_01_2012-exchange-rate-history.html
h ttp://www.exchangerates.org.uk/GBP-USD-01_01_2013-exchange-rate-history.html
h ttps://www.poundsterlinglive.com/best-exchange-rates/british-pound-to-us-dollar-exchange-rate-on-2014-01-01
h ttps://www.poundsterlinglive.com/best-exchange-rates/british-pound-to-us-dollar-exchange-rate-on-2015-01-01
h ttps://www.poundsterlinglive.com/best-exchange-rates/british-pound-to-us-dollar-exchange-rate-on-2016-01-01
h ttp://www.exchangerates.org.uk/GBP-USD-07_10_2016-exchange-rate-history.html
What have they got to do with Trump?
https://twitter.com/wallace_anna/status/772894573693640704
Leave was full of cake and eat promises. Certainly if you got your information from the Tabloids. People like Hannan and Redwood were sidelined a vote to leave was about about making their lives better and improving their standards of living. I think they might have a right to be genuinely angry if real incomes fall by 10% over 3 years.
To get the figures shown in the tweet he's group 6-10 as Immigration and 0-4 as Single Market.
They also provide breakdowns of 8-10, 4-7, 0-3 which makes only UKIP and Cons prioritise Immigration over Single market.
The tweeted 6-10/0-4 bucketing is completely at odds with the earlier questions which asked people to rate importance of various post Brexit issues. Only 18% rated Controlling immigration as the top issue.