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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Two nations: the Brexit chasm

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    Sean_F said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    I know this isn't exactly news as rumour of it have been circulating for some time (the first offer was made by New Zealand at the end of June), but it seems to me to be hugely significant:

    "news that Australia, New Zealand and Canada will lend the government their own expert trade negotiators. "

    As in 1914 and 1939 the old dominions are rallying round to help dig the UK out of the shit.

    Indeed. I actually expect that the four nations will conclude a free trade agreement for goods and services fairly rapidly and possibly even an easier working visa zone as well.
    What'll be interesting is the number of trade deals with African commonwealth countries.
    Andrew Mitchell was pushing a deal with Nigeria last week and May will work on South Africa at the G20
    She's also meeting India's PM Modi.
    India and Nigeria and South Africa plus Canada, Australia and New Zealand should be the easiest to do a deal with and probably Russia too. The U.S. will be easy too if Trump wins but ironically harder if Hillary wins, though a strongly GOP Congress would help. Japan, South Korea and China will be more difficult, especially if we get no membership of the single market at all. Brazil and Mexico may also not be easy if it is hard BREXIT
    We owe a huge debt to HM Queen who has determinedly kept the institution of the Commonwealth alive through the last 50 years.

    In 20 years time I suspect the annual commonwealth heads of government meeting will again as big a news item as EU summits currently are. By that time even US states might want to join.

    Mr Glenn will no doubt be along shortly to disagree.
    There's a great opportunity here for the Commonwealth to form a free trade zone, there's a common language and legal system, opportunites for imports and exports free of tariffs. As you say, well done to HMQ for keeping this institution together through good and bad times.
    HMQ is no fan of the EU, it seems.
    I don't know we do know that. What we may know is she asked a question REMAIN could have profitably answered.....but didn't bother to....
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,909
    PlatoSaid said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    "More is to come out about the disgusting Vaz that will truly shock Westminster…"

    http://order-order.com/2016/09/04/244563/

    Was this Mirror sting another Guido co-op? Even if not, sounds like Staines is dusting off the files from the filing cabinet.

    Isn't he contracted to the Sun?
    AFAIK, not anymore no e.g. He doesn't do the Sunday gossip column, and I believe the Newmark story got offered around all the tabloids (I think it went in the MoS in the end).
    Ah. Harry Cole does column though - guess he's Sun payroll now
    Has been for a couple of years, the move finally got him a lobby pass! I'd imagine he's still friendly with Staines and the Guido mob though...
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    NEW THREAD

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    MP_SE said:

    Eurofanatics are in an extreme but vocal minority.

    https://twitter.com/glyndaviesmp/status/772366620903768065

    I expect that there are a few thousand immigrants from the EU living in Cardiff.

    But obviously not worried by BREXIT.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,031
    619 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Good to see the harsh reality of Brexit being spelt out by the US and Japan today.

    Good to see the harsh reality of Brexit being spelt out by the US and Japan today.

    Not Trump
    i think the collapse in the world economy caused by president trump will make brexit look like a picnic
    Well BREXITeers can take comfort in the whole world going down with them!
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,031

    HYUFD said:

    chestnut said:

    Remain 'Big cities' = university towns with suitably groomed and politically active under 30s.

    malcolmg said:

    I'm curious as to why deprived inner London voted so heavily for Remain.

    Now I can understand why economically successful parts of London - Westminster, Kensington, Richmond, Wandsworth - did so.

    But why would people in Lambeth and Haringey and Hackney and Southwark be even more Remain ?

    The same areas which also voted YesAV.

    Perhaps because pretending that you're a member of the successful metropolitan internationalist elite hides that you're sharing a flat in a crime ridden shithole with a crap job and with a load of debt ?

    Perhaps they are packed with immigrants or EU citizens

    I know this isn't exactly news as rumour of it have been circulating for some time (the first offer was made by New Zealand at the end of June), but it seems to me to be hugely significant:

    "news that Australia, New Zealand and Canada will lend the government their own expert trade negotiators. "

    As in 1914 and 1939 the old dominions are rallying round to help dig the UK out of the shit.

    Australia et al aren't doing this out of the goodness of their hearts. They know that they can take advantage of the fact we have no trade expertise to get some very good deals for themselves.
    They will also want better visa and passport terms from the UK than they got when it was in the EU
    Hopefully. I'd rather have freedom of movement with like-minded nations like Australia and New Zealand rather than much more foreign places like Romania and Estonia.
    Many would but to maintain some membership of the Single Market we need free movement from the latter too
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,031

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    I know this isn't exactly news as rumour of it have been circulating for some time (the first offer was made by New Zealand at the end of June), but it seems to me to be hugely significant:

    "news that Australia, New Zealand and Canada will lend the government their own expert trade negotiators. "

    As in 1914 and 1939 the old dominions are rallying round to help dig the UK out of the shit.

    Indeed. I actually expect that the four nations will conclude a free trade agreement for goods and services fairly rapidly and possibly even an easier working visa zone as well.
    What'll be interesting is the number of trade deals with African commonwealth countries.
    Andrew Mitchell was pushing a deal with Nigeria last week and May will work on South Africa at the G20
    She's also meeting India's PM Modi.
    India and Nigeria and South Africa plus Canada, Australia and New Zealand should be the easiest to do a deal with and probably Russia too. The U.S. will be easy too if Trump wins but ironically harder if Hillary wins, though a strongly GOP Congress would help. Japan, South Korea and China will be more difficult, especially if we get no membership of the single market at all. Brazil and Mexico may also not be easy if it is hard BREXIT
    We owe a huge debt to HM Queen who has determinedly kept the institution of the Commonwealth alive through the last 50 years.

    In 20 years time I suspect the annual commonwealth heads of government meeting will again as big a news item as EU summits currently are. By that time even US states might want to join.

    Mr Glenn will no doubt be along shortly to disagree.
    Certainly the Queen had no love for the EU if the Sun was correct
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