(2/3) The Conservatives enjoy not merely sustained large leaders in the polls on general voter intention - extraordinary for a Government in office at this stage of a Parliament - but they are ahead by a country mile on both leadership and economic competence. Even if the VI figures narrow, it is hard to imagine these underlying ratings turning in Labour's favour in the context of a May-led Conservative Party facing off against a Corbyn-led Labour Party. Then, if you look beyond Labour, there's nothing but more good news for the Tories.
The Lib Dems have been at bedrock support of 8-10% for the last six years, and there is almost no sign of a revival. They have gone back to where the Liberal Party was half-a-century ago, almost an irrelevance. There is every reason to suppose that, having won Brexit, the blue wing of Ukip will come home to the Tories, whilst the red wing will continue to provide a home to ex-Labour voters who have probably abandoned the party for good, and will continue actively to help the Conservatives by forcing the wounded and shrunken Labour Party to fight a war on two fronts. The Greens don't poll well enough to be much of a factor in anything. The only serious opposition is arguably the SNP, but they only field candidates in 8% of the country and they have also helped the Conservatives no end by wiping out Scottish Labour, and by giving them the Lab/Nat pact threat with which to persuade a lot of English voters that all of the left-leaning parties should be shunned, to prevent rule by a "progressive coalition" under remote control from Edinburgh.
Factor in a steadily ageing population, the gradual movement of the Jewish, Hindu and Sikh votes rightwards, evidence that the Conservatives outperform relative to the average national vote share in marginal seats, and the effects of boundary change, and surely the only barrier to a Tory landslide in 2020 is if Theresa May makes a total shambles of Brexit? All she has to do is follow the path that she is already indicating - to take us out of the EU, ensure that some sovereign control of the borders is provided, and to mitigate any economic damage with business-friendly policies - and, whilst the road may be rocky in places, with the puny opposition that she is up against she can hardly lose. The 37% of voters who backed David Cameron last year have absolutely nowhere else to go, and after boundary change they alone should be enough for the Tories, whose vote is already more efficiently distributed than Labour's, to win a comfortable working majority of around 50. Personally, I think Mrs May will have no great difficulty reaching the totemic 40% mark, and if things go really well she could get to 45%. Because who's to stop her but her own party, and if she gets Brexit right then why would they try?
(3/3) Go onto Electoral Calculus, plug a 40:28 Con:Lab vote split and the 2018 projected boundary option into the prediction mechanism, and the Conservatives win around a 100 seat majority. I think that it's quite likely that the Tories will do better, Labour will do worse, and that's all assuming that the Labour Party won't actually split (in which case the two halves would have to fight each other to the death, and the Conservatives could win a hatful of seats coming up through the middle and massacre them both.)
The bottom line is, Theresa May leads a party with a voter coalition that is capable of delivering victory, and which is still growing, against a collection of assorted opponents that are all either scarred by serious defeat, or ideologically niche, or geographically niche, or suffering from low ceilings of support, or are riven by faction, or are small and not generally noticed by the electorate, or have unpopular leaders, or (most often) labour under a combination of several of these handicaps. I know that nearly four years is almost an eternity in politics, but all the same, a Conservative victory in 2020 looks highly likely.
OT I think most voters accept the result and that Brexit will happen. The question is whether they accept the consequences of Brexit. It was a very narrow win on an exaggerated prospectus, which means that those arguing for it will continue to overstate the case, while those that are against are in the mindset of it failing. A lot of what will happen isn't in the control of the politicians we have elected.
It would have been better if the vote had been more decisive one way or the other. Then it doesn't matter happens. Norway voted 99% for independence in 1905
May showing her inexperience today I think. Talks about optimism whilst clumsily saying "it won't be plain sailing".
Isn't politicians being more honest with the public something that the public keep asking for?
It's the way she immediately put herself back on the optimism line that gives it away.
I take it that you'd criticise this for giving out the same mixed messages then:?
We have before us an ordeal of the most grievous kind. We have before us many, many long months of struggle and of suffering. You ask, what is our policy? I will say: It is to wage war, by sea, land and air, with all our might and with all the strength that God can give us; to wage war against a monstrous tyranny, never surpassed in the dark and lamentable catalogue of human crime. That is our policy. You ask, what is our aim? I can answer in one word: victory; victory at all costs, victory in spite of all terror, victory, however long and hard the road may be; for without victory, there is no survival. Let that be realized; no survival for the British Empire, no survival for all that the British Empire has stood for, no survival for the urge and impulse of the ages, that mankind will move forward towards its goal. But I take up my task with buoyancy and hope. I feel sure that our cause will not be suffered to fail among men.
Why is Vaz being stitched up? Frankly his private life is noone elses business. Where is the public interest in this story?
If the story is as reported he has potentially committed two criminal offences punishable by imprisonment, including seeking to possess a Class A drug and concealing his identity in order to purchase sex.
If the Mail is right, admittedly perhaps for only the second time in its history (the first being about Giscard being inappropriate to draw up the EU constitution) then Vaz is in very serious trouble. Even if the police decide not to prosecute, it's hard to see Labour's leadership not exploiting it to the full. Any bet on a by-election in Leicester suddenly looks good.
Except that AFAIAA no such betting opportunity exists.
I think you are over interpreting this - and looking at it through the wrong prism.
This is simply the metropolitan / non-metropolitan divide. Leave/Remain has just thrown it into sharp relief.
It's a divide that has persisted for centuries and, no doubt, will continue to persist.
The only thing that is unusual is that for the last 20 years (since Blair) politics has been utterly dominated by the metropolitan tendency with a very narrow worldview and the contempt that Londoners have always had for their country cousins.
That was simply unhealthy, and I'm glad that the natural order has reasserted itself. London has a hugely important role to play in the country, but its priorities and interests are different from those of the rest of the realm and it should never been allow to hold sway.
So 48% of the population is part of the elite? That's stretching the definition somewhat
Isn't all this allegation and potentially prejudicial to a trial?
I don't think Bercow has acted wrongly if he has done as reported. If a cttee chairman is alleged to have done something improper then it should be reported to the appropriate authorities and action within the Commons only taken if those authorities agree the evidence sufficiently compelling to begin formal proceedings.
Bercow's job is to protect the rights of Parliament, which include freedom of speech and freedom from intimidation. If MPs could be forced to stand down from powerful positions by hearsay and unsupported allegations, it would give an incentive for anyone under investigation with something to hide to concoct or twist any piece of nonsense in order to frustrate those inquiries. Unless Vaz is charged or admits guilt, he should stay.
And the gap in the centre is now achingly empty: who are centrists who hold Remain values now supposed to vote for? The party that can articulate their hopes and present a way to develop their values in post-Brexit Britain is set to reap major rewards. The Conservatives’ best hope for an overall majority at the next election looks likely to be to hold that election early. Since Theresa May seems apparently set against that, betting against that outcome looks wise.
There's no such party, and if there was it would split the Lib/Lab vote. Take a Labour Party busy playing with itself and a horribly damaged LibDems, then add incumbency and boundary changes and the Tories probably don't need much more than 30% for a majority. After the election there's a risk that Labour will start to get its shit together, so it makes sense for them to do the full term.
Clearly any concrete Brexit solution is going to nark off a lot of Tory supporters, but isn't the solution to that just to be vague and not do anything concrete? They can make "Brexit means Brexit" a manifesto commitment for 2020. That gives them some leverage over UKIP voters in safe seats, in the unlikely event that the next election is actually a contest.
"Leavers tend to regard national identity, protection of wages and defence against immigration as of paramount importance while Remainers tend to see free trade, economic growth and international co-operation as the chief goals. "
Absolute total bollocks ! Like the entire thread header this morning.
Why is Vaz being stitched up? Frankly his private life is noone elses business. Where is the public interest in this story?
If the story is as reported he has potentially committed two criminal offences punishable by imprisonment, including seeking to possess a Class A drug and concealing his identity in order to purchase sex.
If the Mail is right, admittedly perhaps for only the second time in its history (the first being about Giscard being inappropriate to draw up the EU constitution) then Vaz is in very serious trouble. Even if the police decide not to prosecute, it's hard to see Labour's leadership not exploiting it to the full. Any bet on a by-election in Leicester suddenly looks good.
When has Labour's current leadership exploited any situation to the full, since being gifted the nominations?
It's an excellent piece from the handsome and erudite Mr Meeks. I broadly agree with the thrust but for slightly different reasons. I'll come onto that. But in the short term the strength of May's position is contained in her alchemical formula " Brexit must mean Brexit and we're going to make a success of it. " This is both a Fog Horn and a Dog Whistle at the same time. We're heading for synthesis. If tragically our place in Europe was unsustainable thesis, if tragically the Leave proposition was a phantasmagoria of Xenophobic and racist lies May knows victory in FPTP elections ( because we won't be having another UK referendum till all the politicians who remember this one are dead. ) lies in putting the pragmatic half of Remain and Leave votes together and leave the ultra halves of both sides to go hang. The Fog Horn is Brexit means Brexit. She's telling the world it will happen. Make a Success of it is the Dog Whistle. It's admitting a success will have to *made* of it because that far from certain but don't worry I'm in charge not the Three Brexiteers and voters with England Flags on their council houses in Sunderland. In short she's triangulating and attempting to unite the luke warm centre who don't care what Brexit is as long as it's called Brexit, it's well managed and then we can all change the subject. I expect the strategy to work.
I think you are over interpreting this - and looking at it through the wrong prism.
This is simply the metropolitan / non-metropolitan divide. Leave/Remain has just thrown it into sharp relief.
It's a divide that has persisted for centuries and, no doubt, will continue to persist.
The only thing that is unusual is that for the last 20 years (since Blair) politics has been utterly dominated by the metropolitan tendency with a very narrow worldview and the contempt that Londoners have always had for their country cousins.
That was simply unhealthy, and I'm glad that the natural order has reasserted itself. London has a hugely important role to play in the country, but its priorities and interests are different from those of the rest of the realm and it should never been allow to hold sway.
London does not (unless its boundaries have swollen overnight) contain anything like 48% of the electorate.
And is a funny old metroplitan elite that is 30% of the population of South Essex, Stoke on Trent and Lincolnshire. The weird country hicks who are a third of the population of inner London are not very visible either!
Unless you make a circular definition where Remainer = metropolitan elite and Leaver = sturdy yeoman/hillbilly, then these terms are clearly inadequate. Age breaks down similarly too with substantial numbers of elderly Remainers and young Leavers, albeit both minorities.
I don't think that the national politics will split on this issue, as not that many are bothered about the EU either way, and for many it doesn't impinge on daily life. Apart from worsening our recruitment crisis Brexit doesn't affect me much at all. It will remain what it has been for a long time, a running battle between factions of the Tory party, but that is of little interest to most of us, even most political nerds.
To me Brexit was a futile vote against one aspect of globalisation and the modern world, a self inflicted wound but not one to be picked at.
I didn't say "metropolitan elite" - a term I hate - but "metropolitan" It's a mindset issue.
Funny sort of metropolitan in rural Lincs. It becomes a meaningless label.
Why just not stick to Remainer and Leaver without trying to attribute other properties?
I think you are over interpreting this - and looking at it through the wrong prism.
This is simply the metropolitan / non-metropolitan divide. Leave/Remain has just thrown it into sharp relief.
It's a divide that has persisted for centuries and, no doubt, will continue to persist.
The only thing that is unusual is that for the last 20 years (since Blair) politics has been utterly dominated by the metropolitan tendency with a very narrow worldview and the contempt that Londoners have always had for their country cousins.
That was simply unhealthy, and I'm glad that the natural order has reasserted itself. London has a hugely important role to play in the country, but its priorities and interests are different from those of the rest of the realm and it should never been allow to hold sway.
So 48% of the population is part of the elite? That's stretching the definition somewhat
Surely the 48% includes those cowed by the elite's Project Fear?
Given that the Chicken Licken tendency have been massively disappointed that the sky hasn't fallen on our Brexit-voting nation, you have to wonder what arguments they would make to try and win the second referendum they seem to crave. All they had last time was Project Fear. Without that - what?
I think you are over interpreting this - and looking at it through the wrong prism.
This is simply the metropolitan / non-metropolitan divide. Leave/Remain has just thrown it into sharp relief.
It's a divide that has persisted for centuries and, no doubt, will continue to persist.
The only thing that is unusual is that for the last 20 years (since Blair) politics has been utterly dominated by the metropolitan tendency with a very narrow worldview and the contempt that Londoners have always had for their country cousins.
That was simply unhealthy, and I'm glad that the natural order has reasserted itself. London has a hugely important role to play in the country, but its priorities and interests are different from those of the rest of the realm and it should never been allow to hold sway.
So 48% of the population is part of the elite? That's stretching the definition somewhat
Jeeeezz that Mirror report is absolutely nuclear. Worse still at the end of a text it is alleged that Vaz sent he "signed off with a smiley face emoticon"
Interesting about Japanese pharmas moving from London to the location of the new EMA.
Based on this bit -
'a seamless process towards BREXIT that could include arrangements such as the establishment of an extendable transitional period during which an interim agreement could be applied if required'
It would seem the Japanese have been fed a few of the memos circulating on the 'EEA transition' option - which is where the minority of intelligent REMAINERs are gravitating now.
I think you are over interpreting this - and looking at it through the wrong prism.
This is simply the metropolitan / non-metropolitan divide. Leave/Remain has just thrown it into sharp relief.
It's a divide that has persisted for centuries and, no doubt, will continue to persist.
The only thing that is unusual is that for the last 20 years (since Blair) politics has been utterly dominated by the metropolitan tendency with a very narrow worldview and the contempt that Londoners have always had for their country cousins.
That was simply unhealthy, and I'm glad that the natural order has reasserted itself. London has a hugely important role to play in the country, but its priorities and interests are different from those of the rest of the realm and it should never been allow to hold sway.
Indeed.
And exacerbated by the metropolitans being so incompetent and so unwilling to take responsibility for the consequences of their own failures.
"Leavers tend to regard national identity, protection of wages and defence against immigration as of paramount importance while Remainers tend to see free trade, economic growth and international co-operation as the chief goals. "
Absolute total bollocks ! Like the entire thread header this morning.
That is all....
Alistair's summary of the main priorities of most supporters of either side seems correct to me.
Isn't all this allegation and potentially prejudicial to a trial?
I don't think Bercow has acted wrongly if he has done as reported. If a cttee chairman is alleged to have done something improper then it should be reported to the appropriate authorities and action within the Commons only taken if those authorities agree the evidence sufficiently compelling to begin formal proceedings.
Bercow's job is to protect the rights of Parliament, which include freedom of speech and freedom from intimidation. If MPs could be forced to stand down from powerful positions by hearsay and unsupported allegations, it would give an incentive for anyone under investigation with something to hide to concoct or twist any piece of nonsense in order to frustrate those inquiries. Unless Vaz is charged or admits guilt, he should stay.
That isn't to say he isn't a slimy pompous prick.
That's a fair point. No matter how much of a slimeball we all think he is, he's still entitled to due process without prejudice.
After the election there's a risk that Labour will start to get its shit together, so it makes sense for them to do the full term.
I'd argue the reverse: that one of the reasons it makes sense for May to wait until 2020 is because Labour's situation is likely to get worse. Either they keep on fighting like rats in a sack, or the party splits, or the MPs give up and allow the Corbyn Left to run riot, in the vague hope that the 2020 defeat will be so completely crushing that the membership will contemplate moving back towards the centre (although if they do that they are fools, because the Corbyn-backing majority would almost certainly keep supporting him regardless, and then install somebody with a similar worldview as successor after he retires.)
I reckon that the Labour Party is already finished as a party of Government. What will replace it and how long this will take I don't know, but it's not going to be quick. Residual Labour is both too weak to win an election, and too strong to be elbowed aside, at least for the foreseeable future.
There's no such party, and if there was it would split the Lib/Lab vote. Take a Labour Party busy playing with itself and a horribly damaged LibDems, then add incumbency and boundary changes and the Tories probably don't need much more than 30% for a majority. After the election there's a risk that Labour will start to get its shit together, so it makes sense for them to do the full term.
Clearly any concrete Brexit solution is going to nark off a lot of Tory supporters, but isn't the solution to that just to be vague and not do anything concrete? They can make "Brexit means Brexit" a manifesto commitment for 2020. That gives them some leverage over UKIP voters in safe seats, in the unlikely event that the next election is actually a contest.
Pretty bolshy stuff with a strong implication that Japan feels let down by Britain. Apparently UK officials were astonished the Japanese would issue a document like this.
Jeeeezz that Mirror report is absolutely nuclear. Worse still at the end of a text it is alleged that Vaz sent he "signed off with a smiley face emoticon"
Tyson is gonna be outraged at that .........
It's the lie that made me laugh - an industrial washing machine salesman called Jim. What on Earth inspired that?
I think you are over interpreting this - and looking at it through the wrong prism.
This is simply the metropolitan / non-metropolitan divide. Leave/Remain has just thrown it into sharp relief.
It's a divide that has persisted for centuries and, no doubt, will continue to persist.
The only thing that is unusual is that for the last 20 years (since Blair) politics has been utterly dominated by the metropolitan tendency with a very narrow worldview and the contempt that Londoners have always had for their country cousins.
That was simply unhealthy, and I'm glad that the natural order has reasserted itself. London has a hugely important role to play in the country, but its priorities and interests are different from those of the rest of the realm and it should never been allow to hold sway.
So 48% of the population is part of the elite? That's stretching the definition somewhat
Surely the 48% includes those cowed by the elite's Project Fear?
Given that the Chicken Licken tendency have been massively disappointed that the sky hasn't fallen on our Brexit-voting nation, you have to wonder what arguments they would make to try and win the second referendum they seem to crave. All they had last time was Project Fear. Without that - what?
I don’t think either side in the Referendum can be particularly proud of the way they conducted the campaign. Leave might be happy with the result at the moment, but that’s about all that can be said.
I think you are over interpreting this - and looking at it through the wrong prism.
This is simply the metropolitan / non-metropolitan divide. Leave/Remain has just thrown it into sharp relief.
It's a divide that has persisted for centuries and, no doubt, will continue to persist.
The only thing that is unusual is that for the last 20 years (since Blair) politics has been utterly dominated by the metropolitan tendency with a very narrow worldview and the contempt that Londoners have always had for their country cousins.
That was simply unhealthy, and I'm glad that the natural order has reasserted itself. London has a hugely important role to play in the country, but its priorities and interests are different from those of the rest of the realm and it should never been allow to hold sway.
So 48% of the population is part of the elite? That's stretching the definition somewhat
Surely the 48% includes those cowed by the elite's Project Fear?
Given that the Chicken Licken tendency have been massively disappointed that the sky hasn't fallen on our Brexit-voting nation, you have to wonder what arguments they would make to try and win the second referendum they seem to crave. All they had last time was Project Fear. Without that - what?
Project fear was on both sides. Remember those hordes of Turks coming here?
And considering nothing has happened so far in the Brexit process, apart from devaluation as a result of uncertainty in the markets, it is a bit early to call the outcome of Brexit.
"Leavers tend to regard national identity, protection of wages and defence against immigration as of paramount importance while Remainers tend to see free trade, economic growth and international co-operation as the chief goals. "
Absolute total bollocks ! Like the entire thread header this morning.
That is all....
+1... I voted leave because of free trade (if the EU really wanted it we would have free trade in Finance and Services by now, we don't as its not the interest of the rest of the EU), economic growth (look at Greece, just look at Greece) and international co-operation - Merkel in one weekend created a migration crisis that's going to take 20 years to resolve..
As for national identity - meh, protection of wages - meh, immigration - meh...
I would argue that many people voted remain because they didn't look into their chief goals in enough detail because if they had their vote, like mine, would have gone the other way...
Mr. 43, if the Japanese were astonished we'd 'behave like this' perhaps that's a failing on their part rather than ours.
Dr. Foxinsox, give it a few months. Either the Turks (not all, but a significant number) get free travel to Euroland, or they'll open the migrant floodgates again.
OT I think most voters accept the result and that Brexit will happen. The question is whether they accept the consequences of Brexit. It was a very narrow win on an exaggerated prospectus, which means that those arguing for it will continue to overstate the case, while those that are against are in the mindset of it failing. A lot of what will happen isn't in the control of the politicians we have elected.
It would have been better if the vote had been more decisive one way or the other. Then it doesn't matter happens. Norway voted 99% for independence in 1905
I Think Your Point On Accepting The Consequences Is A Very Good One. There are innumerable thing we vote for and accept but then react very differently to the consequences. That increases the risk of bitter division persisting as it reduces the chance less polarised voices will come the fore. I wish may the best if luck, this was never going to be easy.
Jeeeezz that Mirror report is absolutely nuclear. Worse still at the end of a text it is alleged that Vaz sent he "signed off with a smiley face emoticon"
Tyson is gonna be outraged at that .........
It's the lie that made me laugh - an industrial washing machine salesman called Jim. What on Earth inspired that?
He is a politician, washing machines Spin, just not as much or fast as politicians. He felt at home with that concept.
Interesting article Mr Meeks, many thanks. – Can’t help thinking your perception of the nation split in two is still somewhat over egged. If yesterday’s March4Europe showed anything, it was that apart from in London, where a crowd of little over 2,000 took to the streets and the rest of the “cities across Britain” who barely managed to scrape 500 between them, it is that the British are far more sanguine over the referendum result than you would have us believe.
Good article. I think Alastair is spot on about the Tories. I know I am biased but the current cabinet and our PM have been deeply unimpressive so far. I do not think they have the vision or the ability to put together a Brexit deal that will keep the Tories together, let alone unite the country.
However, as someone who voted Remain I have to say that it is not now close to being at the forefront of my thoughts. I will come on here to argue the toss and I would vote Remain again, but I would not vote for a party merely because it wanted to stay in the EU. I think our bolt is shot on that one. The key now is to get the best Leave possible and for me that means retaining, as far as is doable, our position within the single market. Again, though, it won't determine my vote at the next GE. The leader of the Labour party will do that. If it is Corbyn I will not be voting.
It's an excellent piece from the handsome and erudite Mr Meeks. I broadly agree with the thrust but for slightly different reasons. I'll come onto that. But in the short term the strength of May's position is contained in her alchemical formula " Brexit must mean Brexit and we're going to make a success of it. " This is both a Fog Horn and a Dog Whistle at the same time. We're heading for synthesis. If tragically our place in Europe was unsustainable thesis, if tragically the Leave proposition was a phantasmagoria of Xenophobic and racist lies May knows victory in FPTP elections ( because we won't be having another UK referendum till all the politicians who remember this one are dead. ) lies in putting the pragmatic half of Remain and Leave votes together and leave the ultra halves of both sides to go hang. The Fog Horn is Brexit means Brexit. She's telling the world it will happen. Make a Success of it is the Dog Whistle. It's admitting a success will have to *made* of it because that far from certain but don't worry I'm in charge not the Three Brexiteers and voters with England Flags on their council houses in Sunderland. In short she's triangulating and attempting to unite the luke warm centre who don't care what Brexit is as long as it's called Brexit, it's well managed and then we can all change the subject. I expect the strategy to work.
I agree that's May's strategy. I am less confident than you that it will work. You would want something you can deal with quickly, put it to bed and move on. Unfortunately Brexit promises to be intractable. Government will be dealing with it for years, so there will be an element of George Bush's "Mission Accomplished" if she declares it all over too soon. In fact there are a number of parallels between Iraq and Brexit.
I'm curious as to why deprived inner London voted so heavily for Remain.
Now I can understand why economically successful parts of London - Westminster, Kensington, Richmond, Wandsworth - did so.
But why would people in Lambeth and Haringey and Hackney and Southwark be even more Remain ?
The same areas which also voted YesAV.
Perhaps because pretending that you're a member of the successful metropolitan internationalist elite hides that you're sharing a flat in a crime ridden shithole with a crap job and with a load of debt ?
I think you are over interpreting this - and looking at it through the wrong prism.
This is simply the metropolitan / non-metropolitan divide. Leave/Remain has just thrown it into sharp relief.
It's a divide that has persisted for centuries and, no doubt, will continue to persist.
The only thing that is unusual is that for the last 20 years (since Blair) politics has been utterly dominated by the metropolitan tendency with a very narrow worldview and the contempt that Londoners have always had for their country cousins.
That was simply unhealthy, and I'm glad that the natural order has reasserted itself. London has a hugely important role to play in the country, but its priorities and interests are different from those of the rest of the realm and it should never been allow to hold sway.
So 48% of the population is part of the elite? That's stretching the definition somewhat
Surely the 48% includes those cowed by the elite's Project Fear?
Given that the Chicken Licken tendency have been massively disappointed that the sky hasn't fallen on our Brexit-voting nation, you have to wonder what arguments they would make to try and win the second referendum they seem to crave. All they had last time was Project Fear. Without that - what?
I think you are over interpreting this - and looking at it through the wrong prism.
This is simply the metropolitan / non-metropolitan divide. Leave/Remain has just thrown it into sharp relief.
It's a divide that has persisted for centuries and, no doubt, will continue to persist.
The only thing that is unusual is that for the last 20 years (since Blair) politics has been utterly dominated by the metropolitan tendency with a very narrow worldview and the contempt that Londoners have always had for their country cousins.
That was simply unhealthy, and I'm glad that the natural order has reasserted itself. London has a hugely important role to play in the country, but its priorities and interests are different from those of the rest of the realm and it should never been allow to hold sway.
Indeed.
And exacerbated by the metropolitans being so incompetent and so unwilling to take responsibility for the consequences of their own failures.
It's Inner London that's the outlier (72% Remain). Outer London only voted 54% Remain, which makes it more similar to the rest of urban England (45% Remain) than to Inner London.
‘ A senior Conservative is handing back his CBE in disgust at David Cameron’s “Dishonour List” of gongs for cronies and donors, the Standard can reveal.
Major Narindar Saroop said Mr Cameron’s controversial resignation list had brought the entire system into “disrepute” by showering peerages, knighthoods and other awards on close chums and party backers.
“Everyone I have spoken to who also has a decoration feels much the same way,” said the former cavalry officer who made history as the first Asian to stand for Parliament wearing Tory colours in 1979 at Greenwich.
“They may not take the same action I am taking but there is a great deal of disenchantment about the way that the former Prime Minister has behaved.” ‘
Interesting article and exposes the faultlines exposed by EU ref. For example, the 40% or so of Tories who voted Remain now have more in common with Blairite Labour and the LDs than they do with hard BREXIT backing Tory Leavers who are closer to UKIP. Just as the 30% of Labour voters who backed Leave now have more in common with UKIP and socially conservative hard BREXIT backing Tories than they do with Owen Smith supporters in their own party! While Leavers won the war to leave the EU Remainers may yet win some of the peace if the UK keeps some membership of the single market so those divisions will remain for some time.
Also interesting reference to the 'Fattypuffs and Thinifers' which was one of my favourite childhood books too and very cleverly written
Jeeeezz that Mirror report is absolutely nuclear. Worse still at the end of a text it is alleged that Vaz sent he "signed off with a smiley face emoticon"
Tyson is gonna be outraged at that .........
It's the lie that made me laugh - an industrial washing machine salesman called Jim. What on Earth inspired that?
It has to be something to do with ....
"Whether you're putting your trust in Daz Vaz powder, liquid, liquidtabs or tablets, Daz Vaz is the detergent you need to remove all known stains ".
I'm curious as to why deprived inner London voted so heavily for Remain.
Now I can understand why economically successful parts of London - Westminster, Kensington, Richmond, Wandsworth - did so.
But why would people in Lambeth and Haringey and Hackney and Southwark be even more Remain ?
The same areas which also voted YesAV.
Perhaps because pretending that you're a member of the successful metropolitan internationalist elite hides that you're sharing a flat in a crime ridden shithole with a crap job and with a load of debt ?
I'd say it's more that if you live in a big city surrounded by people from all over the globe you end up seeing the world in a very different way. It is possible.
I think you are over interpreting this - and looking at it through the wrong prism.
This is simply the metropolitan / non-metropolitan divide. Leave/Remain has just thrown it into sharp relief.
It's a divide that has persisted for centuries and, no doubt, will continue to persist.
The only thing that is unusual is that for the last 20 years (since Blair) politics has been utterly dominated by the metropolitan tendency with a very narrow worldview and the contempt that Londoners have always had for their country cousins.
That was simply unhealthy, and I'm glad that the natural order has reasserted itself. London has a hugely important role to play in the country, but its priorities and interests are different from those of the rest of the realm and it should never been allow to hold sway.
So 48% of the population is part of the elite? That's stretching the definition somewhat
Surely the 48% includes those cowed by the elite's Project Fear?
Given that the Chicken Licken tendency have been massively disappointed that the sky hasn't fallen on our Brexit-voting nation, you have to wonder what arguments they would make to try and win the second referendum they seem to crave. All they had last time was Project Fear. Without that - what?
There would have been Fear voters on both sides.
But a significant part of the 48% would have been status quo {jokes imminent} and party loyalist voters.
I think you are over interpreting this - and looking at it through the wrong prism.
This is simply the metropolitan / non-metropolitan divide. Leave/Remain has just thrown it into sharp relief.
It's a divide that has persisted for centuries and, no doubt, will continue to persist.
The only thing that is unusual is that for the last 20 years (since Blair) politics has been utterly dominated by the metropolitan tendency with a very narrow worldview and the contempt that Londoners have always had for their country cousins.
That was simply unhealthy, and I'm glad that the natural order has reasserted itself. London has a hugely important role to play in the country, but its priorities and interests are different from those of the rest of the realm and it should never been allow to hold sway.
Indeed.
And exacerbated by the metropolitans being so incompetent and so unwilling to take responsibility for the consequences of their own failures.
Though ironically it is the metropolitans who will be implementing Brexit, both in government and in the civil service. Cue accusations of betrayal from the Bitter Enders.
‘ A senior Conservative is handing back his CBE in disgust at David Cameron’s “Dishonour List” of gongs for cronies and donors, the Standard can reveal.
Major Narindar Saroop said Mr Cameron’s controversial resignation list had brought the entire system into “disrepute” by showering peerages, knighthoods and other awards on close chums and party backers.
“Everyone I have spoken to who also has a decoration feels much the same way,” said the former cavalry officer who made history as the first Asian to stand for Parliament wearing Tory colours in 1979 at Greenwich.
“They may not take the same action I am taking but there is a great deal of disenchantment about the way that the former Prime Minister has behaved.” ‘
One may disagree with certain nominations (Will Straw CBE, wtf?) but surely the whole point of the PM resignation honours list is for the outgoing Prime Minister to honour those who worked alongside him and assisted him in his role?
It's an excellent piece from the handsome and erudite Mr Meeks. I broadly agree with the thrust but for slightly different reasons. I'll come onto that. But in the short term the strength of May's position is contained in her alchemical formula " Brexit must mean Brexit and we're going to make a success of it. " This is both a Fog Horn and a Dog Whistle at the same time. We're heading for synthesis. If tragically our place in Europe was unsustainable thesis, if tragically the Leave proposition was a phantasmagoria of Xenophobic and racist lies May knows victory in FPTP elections ( because we won't be having another UK referendum till all the politicians who remember this one are dead. ) lies in putting the pragmatic half of Remain and Leave votes together and leave the ultra halves of both sides to go hang. The Fog Horn is Brexit means Brexit. She's telling the world it will happen. Make a Success of it is the Dog Whistle. It's admitting a success will have to *made* of it because that far from certain but don't worry I'm in charge not the Three Brexiteers and voters with England Flags on their council houses in Sunderland. In short she's triangulating and attempting to unite the luke warm centre who don't care what Brexit is as long as it's called Brexit, it's well managed and then we can all change the subject. I expect the strategy to work.
That might end up proving true, however I think you a reading a lot into May's intentions with very little evidence. I could equally say her vagueness and reputation for not rocking the boat mean her only intent is to take the path of least political resistance, which is why she is at high risk from any awkward squad given the small majority. We Shall See. So far we've nothing to go on as it's still unclear what she wants. And given we would then not get everything we ask for, I think it's safe to assume what we want will be less than what we ask for.
It's an excellent piece from the handsome and erudite Mr Meeks. I broadly agree with the thrust but for slightly different reasons. I'll come onto that. But in the short term the strength of May's position is contained in her alchemical formula " Brexit must mean Brexit and we're going to make a success of it. " This is both a Fog Horn and a Dog Whistle at the same time. We're heading for synthesis. If tragically our place in Europe was unsustainable thesis, if tragically the Leave proposition was a phantasmagoria of Xenophobic and racist lies May knows victory in FPTP elections ( because we won't be having another UK referendum till all the politicians who remember this one are dead. ) lies in putting the pragmatic half of Remain and Leave votes together and leave the ultra halves of both sides to go hang. The Fog Horn is Brexit means Brexit. She's telling the world it will happen. Make a Success of it is the Dog Whistle. It's admitting a success will have to *made* of it because that far from certain but don't worry I'm in charge not the Three Brexiteers and voters with England Flags on their council houses in Sunderland. In short she's triangulating and attempting to unite the luke warm centre who don't care what Brexit is as long as it's called Brexit, it's well managed and then we can all change the subject. I expect the strategy to work.
I agree that's May's strategy. I am less confident than you that it will work. You would want something you can deal with quickly, put it to bed and move on. Unfortunately Brexit promises to be intractable. Government will be dealing with it for years, so there will be an element of George Bush's "Mission Accomplished" if she declares it all over too soon. In fact there are a number of parallels between Iraq and Brexit.
It won't work. She will end up disappointing people. Where she is lucky is that even now most people do not care. All that the referendum has changed is that more people feel more passionately about staying in the EU than they did before. But it's not a huge number.
There's no such party, and if there was it would split the Lib/Lab vote. Take a Labour Party busy playing with itself and a horribly damaged LibDems, then add incumbency and boundary changes and the Tories probably don't need much more than 30% for a majority. After the election there's a risk that Labour will start to get its shit together, so it makes sense for them to do the full term.
Clearly any concrete Brexit solution is going to nark off a lot of Tory supporters, but isn't the solution to that just to be vague and not do anything concrete? They can make "Brexit means Brexit" a manifesto commitment for 2020. That gives them some leverage over UKIP voters in safe seats, in the unlikely event that the next election is actually a contest.
Pretty bolshy stuff with a strong implication that Japan feels let down by Britain. Apparently UK officials were astonished the Japanese would issue a document like this.
Although Japan is not even in the top 10 destinations of export for UK goods, we export more to Switzerland and Ireland than Japan
Jeeeezz that Mirror report is absolutely nuclear. Worse still at the end of a text it is alleged that Vaz sent he "signed off with a smiley face emoticon"
Tyson is gonna be outraged at that .........
It's the lie that made me laugh - an industrial washing machine salesman called Jim. What on Earth inspired that?
It has to be something to do with ....
"Whether you're putting your trust in Daz Vaz powder, liquid, liquidtabs or tablets, Daz Vaz is the detergent you need to remove all known stains ".
I think you are over interpreting this - and looking at it through the wrong prism.
This is simply the metropolitan / non-metropolitan divide. Leave/Remain has just thrown it into sharp relief.
It's a divide that has persisted for centuries and, no doubt, will continue to persist.
The only thing that is unusual is that for the last 20 years (since Blair) politics has been utterly dominated by the metropolitan tendency with a very narrow worldview and the contempt that Londoners have always had for their country cousins.
That was simply unhealthy, and I'm glad that the natural order has reasserted itself. London has a hugely important role to play in the country, but its priorities and interests are different from those of the rest of the realm and it should never been allow to hold sway.
Indeed.
And exacerbated by the metropolitans being so incompetent and so unwilling to take responsibility for the consequences of their own failures.
Though ironically it is the metropolitans who will be implementing Brexit, both in government and in the civil service. Cue accusations of betrayal from the Bitter Enders.
Yep, as I said during the referendum campaign: "Buy shares in betrayal."
There is nothing in May's CV to indicate that she is anything other than a pretty mediocre, career politician with little skill for bringing people together. Wisely, she is doing all she can to delay the triggering of A50; but it cannot be avoided forever. That's when the fun starts. And are there any vainer, more self-regarding politicians in Britain than Liam Fox, David Davis and Boris Johnson? I also suspect we will be seeing and hearing a lot from Michael Gove and John Redwood in the months to come.
I think you are over interpreting this - and looking at it through the wrong prism.
This is simply the metropolitan / non-metropolitan divide. Leave/Remain has just thrown it into sharp relief.
It's a divide that has persisted for centuries and, no doubt, will continue to persist.
The only thing that is unusual is that for the last 20 years (since Blair) politics has been utterly dominated by the metropolitan tendency with a very narrow worldview and the contempt that Londoners have always had for their country cousins.
That was simply unhealthy, and I'm glad that the natural order has reasserted itself. London has a hugely important role to play in the country, but its priorities and interests are different from those of the rest of the realm and it should never been allow to hold sway.
So 48% of the population is part of the elite? That's stretching the definition somewhat
Surely the 48% includes those cowed by the elite's Project Fear?
Given that the Chicken Licken tendency have been massively disappointed that the sky hasn't fallen on our Brexit-voting nation, you have to wonder what arguments they would make to try and win the second referendum they seem to crave. All they had last time was Project Fear. Without that - what?
Project fear was on both sides. Remember those hordes of Turks coming here?
And considering nothing has happened so far in the Brexit process, apart from devaluation as a result of uncertainty in the markets, it is a bit early to call the outcome of Brexit.
Devaluation isn't to with uncertainty but with interest rate expectations
‘ A senior Conservative is handing back his CBE in disgust at David Cameron’s “Dishonour List” of gongs for cronies and donors, the Standard can reveal.
Major Narindar Saroop said Mr Cameron’s controversial resignation list had brought the entire system into “disrepute” by showering peerages, knighthoods and other awards on close chums and party backers.
“Everyone I have spoken to who also has a decoration feels much the same way,” said the former cavalry officer who made history as the first Asian to stand for Parliament wearing Tory colours in 1979 at Greenwich.
“They may not take the same action I am taking but there is a great deal of disenchantment about the way that the former Prime Minister has behaved.” ‘
One may disagree with certain nominations (Will Straw CBE, wtf?) but surely the whole point of the PM resignation honours list is for the outgoing Prime Minister to honour those who worked alongside him and assisted him in his role?
Exactly. Even if we pretend the system as a whole does not include countless politjcal baubles for cronies, a resignation list is the most appropriate time for such. Anyone saying this breaks the system or is too egregious is being ridiculous. The problems this might demonstrate are long standing.
Don't some places pardon criminals on such occasions? Appoint cronies to positions of influence? Peerages beING awarded can be a big problem. Honours were already riven with silliness among the worthy, the whole point of their creations sometimes hundreds of years ago was to reward cronies.
Interesting article Mr Meeks, many thanks. – Can’t help thinking your perception of the nation split in two is still somewhat over egged. If yesterday’s March4Europe showed anything, it was that apart from in London, where a crowd of little over 2,000 took to the streets and the rest of the “cities across Britain” who barely managed to scrape 500 between them, it is that the British are far more sanguine over the referendum result than you would have us believe.
Exactly. I didn't see reports of these demos, but if attendance was as feeble as you suggest then I would not be at all surprised.
The idea that there is a deep well of pro-Remain sentiment to be exploited in the country at large is nonsense. I would suggest that most of the Remain vote was the product of people voting out of the desire to maintain the economic status quo, or along party lines. Most of the people who really care passionately about the EU hate it, and were delighted by the outcome of the referendum.
Obama will have left office before May invokes Article 50. Given the U.S. is the largest destination for UK exports outside the EU Brits should be rooting for Trump who backed BREXIT over the Remain backing Hillary or at least if they do back Hillary hope she has a GOP House and Senate to deal with
I think you are over interpreting this - and looking at it through the wrong prism.
This is simply the metropolitan / non-metropolitan divide. Leave/Remain has just thrown it into sharp relief.
It's a divide that has persisted for centuries and, no doubt, will continue to persist.
The only thing that is unusual is that for the last 20 years (since Blair) politics has been utterly dominated by the metropolitan tendency with a very narrow worldview and the contempt that Londoners have always had for their country cousins.
That was simply unhealthy, and I'm glad that the natural order has reasserted itself. London has a hugely important role to play in the country, but its priorities and interests are different from those of the rest of the realm and it should never been allow to hold sway.
Indeed.
And exacerbated by the metropolitans being so incompetent and so unwilling to take responsibility for the consequences of their own failures.
Though ironically it is the metropolitans who will be implementing Brexit, both in government and in the civil service. Cue accusations of betrayal from the Bitter Enders.
Yep, as I said during the referendum campaign: "Buy shares in betrayal."
There is nothing in May's CV to indicate that she is anything other than a pretty mediocre, career politician with little skill for bringing people together. Wisely, she is doing all she can to delay the triggering of A50; but it cannot be avoided forever. That's when the fun starts. And are there any vainer, more self-regarding politicians in Britain than Liam Fox, David Davis and Boris Johnson? I also suspect we will be seeing and hearing a lot from Michael Gove and John Redwood in the months to come.
I'm not sure May is so pliable and ineffective.
As Home Sec she deported the odd bod who had resisted for years. She kept the odd young bod much to the annoyance of USA She told the Police conference a few home truths She cocked up a few things too.
However I think she has more principles than many politicians (I know, not difficult). She sticks to what she believes and May may spin less than some others.
Only a fool would trigger A50 instantly. If there is a plan, if the grunt work and heft is put in before A50 is triggered and if there is a cohesive comprehensive overview of the goals and red lines, then they could go towards a successful package. Success will be dictated by the quality of the preparation.
I'm curious as to why deprived inner London voted so heavily for Remain.
Now I can understand why economically successful parts of London - Westminster, Kensington, Richmond, Wandsworth - did so.
But why would people in Lambeth and Haringey and Hackney and Southwark be even more Remain ?
The same areas which also voted YesAV.
Perhaps because pretending that you're a member of the successful metropolitan internationalist elite hides that you're sharing a flat in a crime ridden shithole with a crap job and with a load of debt ?
I'd say it's more that if you live in a big city surrounded by people from all over the globe you end up seeing the world in a very different way. It is possible.
Agree. Also it's possible that the UKIP inspired leave message wasn't perhaps ideally pitched to ethnic minority voters?
I'm curious as to why deprived inner London voted so heavily for Remain.
Now I can understand why economically successful parts of London - Westminster, Kensington, Richmond, Wandsworth - did so.
But why would people in Lambeth and Haringey and Hackney and Southwark be even more Remain ?
The same areas which also voted YesAV.
Perhaps because pretending that you're a member of the successful metropolitan internationalist elite hides that you're sharing a flat in a crime ridden shithole with a crap job and with a load of debt ?
I'd say it's more that if you live in a big city surrounded by people from all over the globe you end up seeing the world in a very different way. It is possible.
Possibly and maybe with a feedback loop.
But the likes of Newham and Brent were much less Remain and were much more Leave than predicted.
There are definite differences in London between how 'trendy', affluent, 'ethnic', lower middle class and wwc areas voted (order in declining likelihood to vote Remain).
It's an excellent piece from the handsome and erudite Mr Meeks. I broadly agree with the thrust but for slightly different reasons. I'll come onto that. But in the short term the strength of May's position is contained in her alchemical formula " Brexit must mean Brexit and we're going to make a success of it. " This is both a Fog Horn and a Dog Whistle at the same time. We're heading for synthesis. If tragically our place in Europe was unsustainable thesis, if tragically the Leave proposition was a phantasmagoria of Xenophobic and racist lies May knows victory in FPTP elections ( because we won't be having another UK referendum till all the politicians who remember this one are dead. ) lies in putting the pragmatic half of Remain and Leave votes together and leave the ultra halves of both sides to go hang. The Fog Horn is Brexit means Brexit. She's telling the world it will happen. Make a Success of it is the Dog Whistle. It's admitting a success will have to *made* of it because that far from certain but don't worry I'm in charge not the Three Brexiteers and voters with England Flags on their council houses in Sunderland. In short she's triangulating and attempting to unite the luke warm centre who don't care what Brexit is as long as it's called Brexit, it's well managed and then we can all change the subject. I expect the strategy to work.
I agree that's May's strategy. I am less confident than you that it will work. You would want something you can deal with quickly, put it to bed and move on. Unfortunately Brexit promises to be intractable. Government will be dealing with it for years, so there will be an element of George Bush's "Mission Accomplished" if she declares it all over too soon. In fact there are a number of parallels between Iraq and Brexit.
It won't work. She will end up disappointing people. Where she is lucky is that even now most people do not care. All that the referendum has changed is that more people feel more passionately about staying in the EU than they did before. But it's not a huge number.
I think this is what will keep May secure (alongside the suicide of the opposition!). Most people, and an even higher percentage of Leavers are really not that bothered about the economic consequences of Brexit. If the City gets screwed over lack of access to the Single Market, so what? They had it coming would be the reaction of the crowd. The secondary effects of this would be remote enough to be blamed on other things, and indeed blamed on some bogeyman rather than themselves.
‘ A senior Conservative is handing back his CBE in disgust at David Cameron’s “Dishonour List” of gongs for cronies and donors, the Standard can reveal.
Major Narindar Saroop said Mr Cameron’s controversial resignation list had brought the entire system into “disrepute” by showering peerages, knighthoods and other awards on close chums and party backers.
“Everyone I have spoken to who also has a decoration feels much the same way,” said the former cavalry officer who made history as the first Asian to stand for Parliament wearing Tory colours in 1979 at Greenwich.
“They may not take the same action I am taking but there is a great deal of disenchantment about the way that the former Prime Minister has behaved.” ‘
One may disagree with certain nominations (Will Straw CBE, wtf?) but surely the whole point of the PM resignation honours list is for the outgoing Prime Minister to honour those who worked alongside him and assisted him in his role?
Exactly. Even if we pretend the system as a whole does not include countless politjcal baubles for cronies, a resignation list is the most appropriate time for such. Anyone saying this breaks the system or is too egregious is being ridiculous. The problems this might demonstrate are long standing.
Don't some places pardon criminals on such occasions? Appoint cronies to positions of influence? Peerages beING awarded can be a big problem. Honours were already riven with silliness among the worthy, the whole point of their creations sometimes hundreds of years ago was to reward cronies.
Precisely. By contrast, watch for outgoing appointments from Obama and incoming appointments repaying favours from Hillary (if it is she - god knows what Trump would do).
It's not particularly seemly but the odd bit of shiny metal and enamel is in fact a much cleaner and less corrosive method of saying thankyou.
I agree re peerages but then I've supported reform of the Lords for a long time and in any case, if working peers are to be appointed - and under the current system, they are required - then those who've worked at the heart of government probably have very valid experience to give.
And with that, I'm signing off to go and do family stuff.
Jeeeezz that Mirror report is absolutely nuclear. Worse still at the end of a text it is alleged that Vaz sent he "signed off with a smiley face emoticon"
Tyson is gonna be outraged at that .........
It's the lie that made me laugh - an industrial washing machine salesman called Jim. What on Earth inspired that?
He is a politician, washing machines Spin, just not as much or fast as politicians. He felt at home with that concept.
Jim - as in jim jams
How many Asian guys do you know called Jim? Cant say I recall any Asian guy with that forename..
I thought Mike assured us for years that no one really cared about the EU and it was a non issue. Not to Alastair its not. In my experience, though, he is somewhat atypical. A lot of remainers I talk to (and there are a lot more remainers than leavers in my circle) are quite phlegmatic about it. They expect us to leave the EU but to retain a close level of cooperation with it. Which seems sensible.
I'm curious as to why deprived inner London voted so heavily for Remain.
Now I can understand why economically successful parts of London - Westminster, Kensington, Richmond, Wandsworth - did so.
But why would people in Lambeth and Haringey and Hackney and Southwark be even more Remain ?
The same areas which also voted YesAV.
Perhaps because pretending that you're a member of the successful metropolitan internationalist elite hides that you're sharing a flat in a crime ridden shithole with a crap job and with a load of debt ?
I'd say it's more that if you live in a big city surrounded by people from all over the globe you end up seeing the world in a very different way. It is possible.
Agree. Also it's possible that the UKIP inspired leave message wasn't perhaps ideally pitched to ethnic minority voters?
I think the Remainers were so loud it pushed Leave out of the process. It really was saturation level.
Interesting article Mr Meeks, many thanks. – Can’t help thinking your perception of the nation split in two is still somewhat over egged. If yesterday’s March4Europe showed anything, it was that apart from in London, where a crowd of little over 2,000 took to the streets and the rest of the “cities across Britain” who barely managed to scrape 500 between them, it is that the British are far more sanguine over the referendum result than you would have us believe.
Exactly. I didn't see reports of these demos, but if attendance was as feeble as you suggest then I would not be at all surprised. The idea that there is a deep well of pro-Remain sentiment to be exploited in the country at large is nonsense. I would suggest that most of the Remain vote was the product of people voting out of the desire to maintain the economic status quo, or along party lines. Most of the people who really care passionately about the EU hate it, and were delighted by the outcome of the referendum.
Attendance was feeble at the events. Agreed there is no deep well of pro-REMAIN. Just a number of noisy europhiles.
There's no such party, and if there was it would split the Lib/Lab vote. Take a Labour Party busy playing with itself and a horribly damaged LibDems, then add incumbency and boundary changes and the Tories probably don't need much more than 30% for a majority. After the election there's a risk that Labour will start to get its shit together, so it makes sense for them to do the full term.
Clearly any concrete Brexit solution is going to nark off a lot of Tory supporters, but isn't the solution to that just to be vague and not do anything concrete? They can make "Brexit means Brexit" a manifesto commitment for 2020. That gives them some leverage over UKIP voters in safe seats, in the unlikely event that the next election is actually a contest.
Pretty bolshy stuff with a strong implication that Japan feels let down by Britain. Apparently UK officials were astonished the Japanese would issue a document like this.
I didn't say anything about how keen they were on an FTA - I just saw someone claiming it would be done quickly, which seems unlikely even if the Japanese government is keen, because it doesn't do anything quickly.
I don't think it's particularly surprising that they'd express an opinion about Brexit though. A lot of firms have put a lot of money into Britain on the assumption that it'll be their entry point to the whole of the EU, and if they're going to have to pack everything up and move then that's obviously something they'll have an opinion about.
I think you are over interpreting this - and looking at it through the wrong prism.
This is simply the metropolitan / non-metropolitan divide. Leave/Remain has just thrown it into sharp relief.
It's a divide that has persisted for centuries and, no doubt, will continue to persist.
The only thing that is unusual is that for the last 20 years (since Blair) politics has been utterly dominated by the metropolitan tendency with a very narrow worldview and the contempt that Londoners have always had for their country cousins.
That was simply unhealthy, and I'm glad that the natural order has reasserted itself. London has a hugely important role to play in the country, but its priorities and interests are different from those of the rest of the realm and it should never been allow to hold sway.
Indeed.
And exacerbated by the metropolitans being so incompetent and so unwilling to take responsibility for the consequences of their own failures.
It's Inner London that's the outlier (72% Remain). Outer London only voted 54% Remain, which makes it more similar to the rest of urban England (45% Remain) than to Inner London.
Most large cities, Manchester, Newcastle, Glasgow, Edinburgh, Cardiff, Bristol, Brighton, Liverpool, Leicester etc voted Remain and while some did vote Leave eg Birmingham and Sunderland big Cities were clearly more pro Remain than the national average. Those cities that did vote Leave tended to have more in common with Leave voting working class towns than they did with inner London
Is this old style sex scandal better than Lord Sewel in a hookers orange bra?
Could be if Guido is right. http://order-order.com/2016/09/04/244563/ "Keith Vaz has been under police investigation for over year on suspicion of financial corruption and historic allegations of sex with minors. Speaker Bercow was informed of this and fellow MPs demanded – Andrew Bridgen in writing – that he step down from his position on the Home Affair Select Committee. The Speaker protected Vaz… It is widely known around Westminster that Vaz – who owes his career to Greville Janner – was the unidentified MP in this Sun front page from last year."
Where I think the handsome and erudite Mr Meeks is spot on is on the fractured extremes. Taking hadcore Leavers first the picture is not a pretty one. We have an immovable object versus an irresistible force. As more research on the demographics of the Leave vote comes in it repeats it's self. They didn't believe Leave's lies, Leave designed it's lies according to what these voters already believed. Leaving the EU will do at best absolutely nothing for this cores concerns save a modest reduction in EU immigration and a largely technical change in the status of the substantial amount of EU immigration which will continue. The whole point of Globalisation is cheap foreign labour doesn't need to cross borders to depress low skilled British wage rates. The whole point of postmodernity is if St George slays the European Dragon the Dragon just chuckles and says he doesn't believe in the concept of a lance and walks on. We have a fixed and immovable core of Kippers' and some post industrial WWC voters who aren't going anywhere in revolt against globalisation and postmodernity. Neither of which are going anywhere. Brexit will do fiddly squat. These peoples votes were valuable in a binary referendum but the Conservatives need neither of them. They'll soon go back to being completely ignored. Expect a mutated but festering UKIP to be polling between 12% and 20% over the electoral cycle as " Westminster " and British Muslims take the place of Brussels post Brexit.
And exacerbated by the metropolitans being so incompetent and so unwilling to take responsibility for the consequences of their own failures.
Though ironically it is the metropolitans who will be implementing Brexit, both in government and in the civil service. Cue accusations of betrayal from the Bitter Enders.
Yep, as I said during the referendum campaign: "Buy shares in betrayal."
There is nothing in May's CV to indicate that she is anything other than a pretty mediocre, career politician with little skill for bringing people together. Wisely, she is doing all she can to delay the triggering of A50; but it cannot be avoided forever. That's when the fun starts. And are there any vainer, more self-regarding politicians in Britain than Liam Fox, David Davis and Boris Johnson? I also suspect we will be seeing and hearing a lot from Michael Gove and John Redwood in the months to come.
I'm not sure May is so pliable and ineffective.
I'm not sure either, however that is part of the problem. I get the sense she can be effective and competent - she seemed the choice of Tory leader that was needed right now, frankly - but this early on and notwithstanding her record at the Home Office (which has had highs and lows), I don't get a sense of if she will indeed prove effective.
The appointment of Fox and Davis really struck me to be honest. Some SoftLeavers even put forth the theory it was an act to undermine HardBrexit by having them mess up, but such a risky, convoluted plan seems unlikely to me, so I am left to presume May really thought they were the best men for the job and wants them to succeed, as apart from any question of her effectiveness (which we have no evidence as PM for yet, but there's reason for optimism and pessimism), I find it very unlikely May will want to take on any difficult groups within her parliamentary party. She has a slim majority, she has seen how much trouble they can cause, she knows we are on the Brexit path come what may, and she knows that the hardliners, as with all hardliners, don't stop even if they lose an argument or a fight, as any Corbyn or Bone will prove.
She has a lot of hard work to do. Achieving the best possible result she can will involve keeping her own support united, which means the theoretical best possible result she can think of will need to be sacrificed, since the last thing she needs is achieving it to be continually undermined by dedicated groups of her own people for years upon years.
I want to be careful here but In the Mirror's original story there are details of how the men were paid that seem to suggest links to a charity Vaz set up.
if so then its possible criminality could be construed.
Looks like the TV companies have done their legal due diligence on the Vaz case and are now ready to run with the story. he has a big majority so it will be another non-test for Corbyn Labour should it bet to a bye-election. I suspect that the Labour leadership will be briefing against him pretty ferociously as this will be a chance to get a Corbyn-backer into the Commons. However, Vaz will probably tough it out.
Is this old style sex scandal better than Lord Sewel in a hookers orange bra?
Could be if Guido is right. http://order-order.com/2016/09/04/244563/ "Keith Vaz has been under police investigation for over year on suspicion of financial corruption and historic allegations of sex with minors. Speaker Bercow was informed of this and fellow MPs demanded – Andrew Bridgen in writing – that he step down from his position on the Home Affair Select Committee. The Speaker protected Vaz… It is widely known around Westminster that Vaz – who owes his career to Greville Janner – was the unidentified MP in this Sun front page from last year."
Their lawyers obviously got an early alarm call for a Sunday, took them a couple of hours to decide what they're allowed to say on air about the story. That he has resigned from the HOSC now makes it safer to broadcast an outline of the story.
With this Vaz stuff, I never quite get the inclusion of comments about being the subject of a sting operation from the accused. If you still did what was said (and assuming those acts are relevant to your job and not a personal matter) what does it matter if it was a sting or not? Does that mitigate in anyw ay?
I thought Mike assured us for years that no one really cared about the EU and it was a non issue. Not to Alastair its not. In my experience, though, he is somewhat atypical. A lot of remainers I talk to (and there are a lot more remainers than leavers in my circle) are quite phlegmatic about it. They expect us to leave the EU but to retain a close level of cooperation with it. Which seems sensible.
I agree. I think that there are perhaps a few more people who are more wedded to the EU than they were before the referendum, so that there is slightly more of a balance now between the rabid pro and anti side, but that for most folk on both sides it was a vote, nothing more, and life goes on. The problem for May is that she has a lot of rabid antis to contend with - far more than there are in the general population.
I'm curious as to why deprived inner London voted so heavily for Remain.
Now I can understand why economically successful parts of London - Westminster, Kensington, Richmond, Wandsworth - did so.
But why would people in Lambeth and Haringey and Hackney and Southwark be even more Remain ?
The same areas which also voted YesAV.
Perhaps because pretending that you're a member of the successful metropolitan internationalist elite hides that you're sharing a flat in a crime ridden shithole with a crap job and with a load of debt ?
I'd say it's more that if you live in a big city surrounded by people from all over the globe you end up seeing the world in a very different way. It is possible.
Agree. Also it's possible that the UKIP inspired leave message wasn't perhaps ideally pitched to ethnic minority voters?
But the areas which had the biggest Leave overachievement (compared to Andy's spreadsheet) were:
Comments
The Lib Dems have been at bedrock support of 8-10% for the last six years, and there is almost no sign of a revival. They have gone back to where the Liberal Party was half-a-century ago, almost an irrelevance. There is every reason to suppose that, having won Brexit, the blue wing of Ukip will come home to the Tories, whilst the red wing will continue to provide a home to ex-Labour voters who have probably abandoned the party for good, and will continue actively to help the Conservatives by forcing the wounded and shrunken Labour Party to fight a war on two fronts. The Greens don't poll well enough to be much of a factor in anything. The only serious opposition is arguably the SNP, but they only field candidates in 8% of the country and they have also helped the Conservatives no end by wiping out Scottish Labour, and by giving them the Lab/Nat pact threat with which to persuade a lot of English voters that all of the left-leaning parties should be shunned, to prevent rule by a "progressive coalition" under remote control from Edinburgh.
Factor in a steadily ageing population, the gradual movement of the Jewish, Hindu and Sikh votes rightwards, evidence that the Conservatives outperform relative to the average national vote share in marginal seats, and the effects of boundary change, and surely the only barrier to a Tory landslide in 2020 is if Theresa May makes a total shambles of Brexit? All she has to do is follow the path that she is already indicating - to take us out of the EU, ensure that some sovereign control of the borders is provided, and to mitigate any economic damage with business-friendly policies - and, whilst the road may be rocky in places, with the puny opposition that she is up against she can hardly lose. The 37% of voters who backed David Cameron last year have absolutely nowhere else to go, and after boundary change they alone should be enough for the Tories, whose vote is already more efficiently distributed than Labour's, to win a comfortable working majority of around 50. Personally, I think Mrs May will have no great difficulty reaching the totemic 40% mark, and if things go really well she could get to 45%. Because who's to stop her but her own party, and if she gets Brexit right then why would they try?
The bottom line is, Theresa May leads a party with a voter coalition that is capable of delivering victory, and which is still growing, against a collection of assorted opponents that are all either scarred by serious defeat, or ideologically niche, or geographically niche, or suffering from low ceilings of support, or are riven by faction, or are small and not generally noticed by the electorate, or have unpopular leaders, or (most often) labour under a combination of several of these handicaps. I know that nearly four years is almost an eternity in politics, but all the same, a Conservative victory in 2020 looks highly likely.
It would have been better if the vote had been more decisive one way or the other. Then it doesn't matter happens. Norway voted 99% for independence in 1905
We have before us an ordeal of the most grievous kind. We have before us many, many long months of struggle and of suffering. You ask, what is our policy? I will say: It is to wage war, by sea, land and air, with all our might and with all the strength that God can give us; to wage war against a monstrous tyranny, never surpassed in the dark and lamentable catalogue of human crime. That is our policy. You ask, what is our aim? I can answer in one word: victory; victory at all costs, victory in spite of all terror, victory, however long and hard the road may be; for without victory, there is no survival. Let that be realized; no survival for the British Empire, no survival for all that the British Empire has stood for, no survival for the urge and impulse of the ages, that mankind will move forward towards its goal. But I take up my task with buoyancy and hope. I feel sure that our cause will not be suffered to fail among men.
I don't think Bercow has acted wrongly if he has done as reported. If a cttee chairman is alleged to have done something improper then it should be reported to the appropriate authorities and action within the Commons only taken if those authorities agree the evidence sufficiently compelling to begin formal proceedings.
Bercow's job is to protect the rights of Parliament, which include freedom of speech and freedom from intimidation. If MPs could be forced to stand down from powerful positions by hearsay and unsupported allegations, it would give an incentive for anyone under investigation with something to hide to concoct or twist any piece of nonsense in order to frustrate those inquiries. Unless Vaz is charged or admits guilt, he should stay.
That isn't to say he isn't a slimy pompous prick.
Clearly any concrete Brexit solution is going to nark off a lot of Tory supporters, but isn't the solution to that just to be vague and not do anything concrete? They can make "Brexit means Brexit" a manifesto commitment for 2020. That gives them some leverage over UKIP voters in safe seats, in the unlikely event that the next election is actually a contest.
Absolute total bollocks ! Like the entire thread header this morning.
That is all....
http://www.spiked-online.com/newsite/article/the-march-against-the-masses/18527#.V8vWsfkrJD9
I see all 75 members of the Welsh European Movement managed to turn out as well
http://www.mofa.go.jp/files/000185466.pdf
Interesting about Japanese pharmas moving from London to the location of the new EMA.
CNN
Dutch cops train eagles to hunt drones https://t.co/Po1g6WyQQi https://t.co/jUzIR4z4wc
Given that the Chicken Licken tendency have been massively disappointed that the sky hasn't fallen on our Brexit-voting nation, you have to wonder what arguments they would make to try and win the second referendum they seem to crave. All they had last time was Project Fear. Without that - what?
Tyson is gonna be outraged at that .........
'a seamless process towards BREXIT that could include arrangements such as the establishment of an extendable transitional period during which an interim agreement could be applied if required'
It would seem the Japanese have been fed a few of the memos circulating on the 'EEA transition' option - which is where the minority of intelligent REMAINERs are gravitating now.
And exacerbated by the metropolitans being so incompetent and so unwilling to take responsibility for the consequences of their own failures.
I reckon that the Labour Party is already finished as a party of Government. What will replace it and how long this will take I don't know, but it's not going to be quick. Residual Labour is both too weak to win an election, and too strong to be elbowed aside, at least for the foreseeable future.
Pretty bolshy stuff with a strong implication that Japan feels let down by Britain. Apparently UK officials were astonished the Japanese would issue a document like this.
Leave might be happy with the result at the moment, but that’s about all that can be said.
And considering nothing has happened so far in the Brexit process, apart from devaluation as a result of uncertainty in the markets, it is a bit early to call the outcome of Brexit.
As for national identity - meh, protection of wages - meh, immigration - meh...
I would argue that many people voted remain because they didn't look into their chief goals in enough detail because if they had their vote, like mine, would have gone the other way...
Dr. Foxinsox, give it a few months. Either the Turks (not all, but a significant number) get free travel to Euroland, or they'll open the migrant floodgates again.
Jim - as in jim jams
Interesting article Mr Meeks, many thanks. – Can’t help thinking your perception of the nation split in two is still somewhat over egged. If yesterday’s March4Europe showed anything, it was that apart from in London, where a crowd of little over 2,000 took to the streets and the rest of the “cities across Britain” who barely managed to scrape 500 between them, it is that the British are far more sanguine over the referendum result than you would have us believe.
However, as someone who voted Remain I have to say that it is not now close to being at the forefront of my thoughts. I will come on here to argue the toss and I would vote Remain again, but I would not vote for a party merely because it wanted to stay in the EU. I think our bolt is shot on that one. The key now is to get the best Leave possible and for me that means retaining, as far as is doable, our position within the single market. Again, though, it won't determine my vote at the next GE. The leader of the Labour party will do that. If it is Corbyn I will not be voting.
Surprised, certainly. But the polls were neck-and-neck for a long time.
Now I can understand why economically successful parts of London - Westminster, Kensington, Richmond, Wandsworth - did so.
But why would people in Lambeth and Haringey and Hackney and Southwark be even more Remain ?
The same areas which also voted YesAV.
Perhaps because pretending that you're a member of the successful metropolitan internationalist elite hides that you're sharing a flat in a crime ridden shithole with a crap job and with a load of debt ?
‘ A senior Conservative is handing back his CBE in disgust at David Cameron’s “Dishonour List” of gongs for cronies and donors, the Standard can reveal.
Major Narindar Saroop said Mr Cameron’s controversial resignation list had brought the entire system into “disrepute” by showering peerages, knighthoods and other awards on close chums and party backers.
“Everyone I have spoken to who also has a decoration feels much the same way,” said the former cavalry officer who made history as the first Asian to stand for Parliament wearing Tory colours in 1979 at Greenwich.
“They may not take the same action I am taking but there is a great deal of disenchantment about the way that the former Prime Minister has behaved.” ‘
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/top-tory-to-hand-back-cbe-in-protest-at-camerons-cronies-honours-list-a3332321.html
Also interesting reference to the 'Fattypuffs and Thinifers' which was one of my favourite childhood books too and very cleverly written
"Whether you're putting your trust in
DazVaz powder, liquid, liquidtabs or tablets,DazVaz is the detergent you need to remove all known stains ".http://youtu.be/-BEdVZSUZEs
But a significant part of the 48% would have been status quo {jokes imminent} and party loyalist voters.
It does seem a bit peculiar.
The drugs and money aspect to the story however is what could do him in to my mind.
Great advert!
There is nothing in May's CV to indicate that she is anything other than a pretty mediocre, career politician with little skill for bringing people together. Wisely, she is doing all she can to delay the triggering of A50; but it cannot be avoided forever. That's when the fun starts. And are there any vainer, more self-regarding politicians in Britain than Liam Fox, David Davis and Boris Johnson? I also suspect we will be seeing and hearing a lot from Michael Gove and John Redwood in the months to come.
It appears the home Affairs Select Committee member has taken his research a little too far.
Don't some places pardon criminals on such occasions? Appoint cronies to positions of influence? Peerages beING awarded can be a big problem. Honours were already riven with silliness among the worthy, the whole point of their creations sometimes hundreds of years ago was to reward cronies.
The idea that there is a deep well of pro-Remain sentiment to be exploited in the country at large is nonsense. I would suggest that most of the Remain vote was the product of people voting out of the desire to maintain the economic status quo, or along party lines. Most of the people who really care passionately about the EU hate it, and were delighted by the outcome of the referendum.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3772784/Let-s-party-started-Married-Labour-statesman-Keith-Vaz-met-male-prostitutes-London-flat-wanted-man-drugs.html
EDIT
BBC just up with it as well
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37269919
As Home Sec she deported the odd bod who had resisted for years.
She kept the odd young bod much to the annoyance of USA
She told the Police conference a few home truths
She cocked up a few things too.
However I think she has more principles than many politicians (I know, not difficult). She sticks to what she believes and May may spin less than some others.
Only a fool would trigger A50 instantly. If there is a plan, if the grunt work and heft is put in before A50 is triggered and if there is a cohesive comprehensive overview of the goals and red lines, then they could go towards a successful package. Success will be dictated by the quality of the preparation.
But the likes of Newham and Brent were much less Remain and were much more Leave than predicted.
There are definite differences in London between how 'trendy', affluent, 'ethnic', lower middle class and wwc areas voted (order in declining likelihood to vote Remain).
It's not particularly seemly but the odd bit of shiny metal and enamel is in fact a much cleaner and less corrosive method of saying thankyou.
I agree re peerages but then I've supported reform of the Lords for a long time and in any case, if working peers are to be appointed - and under the current system, they are required - then those who've worked at the heart of government probably have very valid experience to give.
And with that, I'm signing off to go and do family stuff.
Agreed there is no deep well of pro-REMAIN. Just a number of noisy europhiles.
Along with Smiths extended member it looks like the Labour Party is just becoming one circular willy waving contest.
I don't think it's particularly surprising that they'd express an opinion about Brexit though. A lot of firms have put a lot of money into Britain on the assumption that it'll be their entry point to the whole of the EU, and if they're going to have to pack everything up and move then that's obviously something they'll have an opinion about.
http://order-order.com/2016/09/04/244563/
"Keith Vaz has been under police investigation for over year on suspicion of financial corruption and historic allegations of sex with minors. Speaker Bercow was informed of this and fellow MPs demanded – Andrew Bridgen in writing – that he step down from his position on the Home Affair Select Committee. The Speaker protected Vaz…
It is widely known around Westminster that Vaz – who owes his career to Greville Janner – was the unidentified MP in this Sun front page from last year."
The appointment of Fox and Davis really struck me to be honest. Some SoftLeavers even put forth the theory it was an act to undermine HardBrexit by having them mess up, but such a risky, convoluted plan seems unlikely to me, so I am left to presume May really thought they were the best men for the job and wants them to succeed, as apart from any question of her effectiveness (which we have no evidence as PM for yet, but there's reason for optimism and pessimism), I find it very unlikely May will want to take on any difficult groups within her parliamentary party. She has a slim majority, she has seen how much trouble they can cause, she knows we are on the Brexit path come what may, and she knows that the hardliners, as with all hardliners, don't stop even if they lose an argument or a fight, as any Corbyn or Bone will prove.
She has a lot of hard work to do. Achieving the best possible result she can will involve keeping her own support united, which means the theoretical best possible result she can think of will need to be sacrificed, since the last thing she needs is achieving it to be continually undermined by dedicated groups of her own people for years upon years.
if so then its possible criminality could be construed.
Newham
Slough
Barking & Dagenham
Sandwell
Ealing
Burnley
Hounslow
Pendle
Harrow
Walsall
Redbridge
Brent
Hillingdon
Wolverhampton
Luton
Leave did significantly better than expected among non-white voters. It was in the 'urban trendy' areas where Leave did worst.
Leave also did worse than expected in affluent parts of the Home Counties - but that can be explained on economic Conservative loyalty grounds.