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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » From Ladbrokes and ConHome two factors that should raise a doubt amongst Theresa May backers
80% OF bets placed on the Tory leadership contest since the final two have been announced are for Andrea Leadsom, according to Ladbrokes.
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I appear to be Numero Uno
If the centre ground means anything, it's the likes of Basildon, Nuneaton, Cannock Chase, Worcester, Bury. All of them (and most of the other typical bellwether constituenices in general elections) delivered heavy Leave wins. They seem to quite like "social conservative" policies, while they also placed no store at all in what the Establishment considers to be "economic credibility" or in the opinions of big businesses.
Though that's not to say Leadsom would do better for the Tories than May (it's less their policies but the fact that May looks and sounds like a natural leader, whereas Leadsom still seems clearly out of her depth.)
% of bets on Remain up to and including 23/07/2016?
FPT: For those into history, reviewed an Alfred biography here:
http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2016/07/review-alfred-great-by-justin-pollard.html
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/751445720310353920
The YouGov poll of Conservative Party members (field work 1-4 July) on the other hand was a weighted professionally conducted poll. It showed May on 63% and Leadsom on 31%.
http://bit.ly/29tmRyG
Even among the Leavers, it broke 49/45 for May/Leadsom. Among Remainers, it broke 92/4 for May/Leadsom.
This was before the fuss and ridicule over Leadsom's CV and tax returns.
The polls, anecdotes and reasoning all point to a decisive win for May.
Having said that - who can trust polls, anecdotes and reasoning these days!
The James Forsyth tweet which Alastair has posted is I think more relevant, although it's worth pointing out that he says "One May supporting MP tells me that the councillors they have spoken to are intrigued by Leadsom, a fresh face they want to hear more about." That's not surprising, given that she's not well known, but it doesn't necessarily mean that will convert into votes for her once they've heard more.
Dull match though. Everyone seems bored, including the players.
This business and fascination with the centre ground on this site never ceases to amaze me. Many posters on here seem to be sure that the centre ground exists and it is where they are or at least can be found by triangulation. The idea, first proposed many years ago, that the whole idea of the centre ground is rubbish and it is the common ground that matters seems to have passed them by.
The full story is here:
"Most Tory MPs are back in their constituencies today, and several of those that I have spoken to are now predicting a closer race between May and Leadsom than Westminster expected.
One May supporting MP tells me that the councillors they have spoken to are intrigued by Leadsom, a fresh face they want to hear more about. There’s also a view among many members, I’m told, that MPs wouldn’t have sent Leadsom through to the final two if she wasn’t qualified to be Prime Minister.
For the next few weeks, I intend to take all polling of Tory members on this race with a pinch of salt. Why? Because Leadsom — unlike Boris, say — isn’t that well known and so her numbers could go up, or down, when members hear more about her, her experience and her views."
http://news.efinancialcareers.com/uk-en/249246/doom-at-deutsche-bank/
Oh?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/08/mps-facing-a-wake-up-call-when-they-find-out-levels-of-support-f/
satisfyingharsh....If it's May, her steady the ship approach may induce a more wait-and-see approach in the scots.
I wonder how many are returnee Kippers?
I know that poll considered all match-ups (including May v Leadsom) but they were hypothetical at the time and most members should be quite a bit more aware of Leadsom after the last few days than they were when that poll was done.
So is another YouGov poll expected soon?
Actually this Steve Bell is good fun. He is gratifyingly indiscreet.
Nick Boles✔
@NickBolesMP
@Gove2016 is one of the finest people in public life, and my closest friend. I will always be proud of doing what I could to elect him PM.
I mean she doesn't really want to win....right?!
:-0
"The crisis consists precisely in the fact that the old is dying and the new cannot be born; in this interregnum a great variety of morbid symptoms appear."
That Tory leadership election: The problem for Mrs. Leadsom is that we don't know much about her; the problem for Mrs. May is that we do. True it was about 100,000 that left.
They are signing up to vote in the next election.
Between, for example, the voters of the South Wales valleys, those of the inner cities and the rural shires there is considerable agreement on a lot of fundamentals. Hack out the tribalism and you will find that an awful lot agree of the fundamentals. That is what I mean by the common ground.
It may well be that keeping that tribalism going and preventing people from realising that they have a lot in common is actually a key part of political parties' strategy. Some of us on here moan about identity politics, but it seems actually to have become the norm. It is in all parties' interests to emphasise the differences.
The problem, perhaps, comes when we have a vote like the referendum. Then everyone has a vote that counts and the unemployed C2DE finds that they have common cause with the ABC1. Then the parties, as are, lose control.
What happens if a party taps into that "Common Ground"?
Still engaged, as far as I can determine.
"Why does Labour, despite decades of gender-equality hand-wringing and 13 years of pro-women legislation, just Carry On elevating men? Labour: a party meant to help women but run by men." Deborah Orr
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/08/labour-party-women-run-by-men
I have no doubt she would do a Corbyn and say "well the membership backed me" and whilst that argument clearly saves Corbyn every time he is under pressure it won't save her.
I think it's fair that the membership look at both candidates and weigh up both of them.
But if I was a voter two things would scare me about Leadsom, 1. That a majority of MP's haven't backed her and 2. We are not just electing a Conservative Leader but also a PM that has to hit the ground running during a period of uncertainty and difficult times ahead. It can't become a massive learning on the job exercise.
Everything that we have seen so far suggests that the new system will be vastly inferior to the old system, will lead to worse outcomes for every stratum of society and will lead to a diminished place for what is left of the country in world affairs.
The value of administrative competence will, I'm sure, become much more apparent after the event.
If - of course that's a big if but nevertheless - if May got 100% of Remain then she would only need 15/65 = 23% of Leave in order to win.
OK, nothing is ever 100% - take that down to 90%, then she has 0.9 * 35 = 31.5 from Remain. Meaning she would only need 19.5/65 = 30% of Leave.
So if May can keep close to 100% of Remain then, on the face of it, it does look an uphill task for Leadsom. But who knows.
I wander around that centre sphere anyway but if the Tories shift to the right I'm offski, because the sight of a female Alan Partridge taking over the Tory party makes me feel queasy.