Hasn't the Bank Of England wanted a weaker Sterling for some time? Might a weaker pound help with regard to the global imbalances? Though not if it strengthens the dollar of course.
In theory, a weaker Sterling makes our exports cheaper, and makes imports more expensive. Therefore helping with our imbalances.
Unfortunately, demand for a lot of the things we import (such as oil, and natural gas) is very price inelastic. If Sterling halved, then our energy import bill would almost double.
Our exports are largely price inelastic too. Hence the fact that Sterling has fallen from $2.10 in 2007 to $1.30, and our exports have only increased 20% or so in that time.
$2.10 How was the dollar ever that weak ?
It was more than $2 to the £ for the whole of 2006-07 period while I was living in California as a student. Happy days.
In was in the 1.90s when I bought my house in California (at 40% off the asking price - that's what a bear market in property looks like)
Your experience in that may well soon prove invaluable here!
As a rule I don't divest strategic assets, so I will likely remain structurally long the London property market (both in the "super prime residential" and the "unique venue" segments)
If you're going to live in your house for the next 30 years (as I suspect both you and I will do), then then the vagaries of the property market are irrelevent.
However, what we're likely to end up with is quite an illiquid market, with very few transactions from non-forced sellers.
I thought you were planning on being a billionaire by then and hence would find the need to upgrade?
Hospitality, entertainment and shopping venues will do very well.
Yes, they will. However, I can't help thinking that tending to the needs of foreign people whilst being paid in a considerably devalued currency is not one of their lifetime's ambitions. I was hoping for something better for the British than teaching them how to say "please can I carry your bag, sir?" in Mandarin.
Well If I've heard Heathrow might not be such a good idea these days.
Heathrow is the most expensive plan that requires very high landing charges to fund it (hint BA does not want to pay, why do you think they bought Aer Lingus?). Plus the money quoted does not include any money towards any transport improvements (estimated to well over £10 billion) required. In contrast Gatwick is much cheaper and easier to build and will fund all transport requirements needed.
Apart from all that, the rumours is that Heathrow will never be able to borrow the money itself on the markets anymore.
If anyone has any sense it's Gatwick.
I agree that Gatwick is the better option. However, living near it and traveling past it, by road and rail, on a regular basis, I strongly question the associated infrastructure costs that will fall on the taxpayer. I think the plans are grossly optimistic as would anyone who cared to pop down to the train station or try and drive up the M23 at the airport's peak times. Peak times incidentally which, in the morning, coincide with the commuter crush on the London-South Coast railways.
It's a bugger to get to. I had a flight at 7am yesterday from Gatwick & had to leave home at 5am - at Heathrow I could have got another 30 minutes kip!
I think we have been here before, Mr. Charles, and my position has not changed. There are more important considerations in deciding national infrastructure than what time you have to get up in the morning.
Besides in your recent house move you could have chosen to move to South London Rather than North London. You could even have chosen to move to the formerly wonderful county of Sussex - not that I could recommend it, mind, but we could do with some more people with your level of clout about the place.
Singapore and Hong Kong are, as you say, excellent.
Being given a tiny boiled sweet by passport control does not make an airport excellent.
I don't think I've ever had a more stressful travel experience than trying to change planes at Singapore. A connecting flight with the same carrier required a walk of OVER A MILE and two airside passes through security.
With only a 45 minute turnaround.
Immediately after the initial 15 hour flight to Singapore.
And then there's the stupid metro system out of Changi airport which requires you to change trains after about two stops - basically everybody and their luggage unless they're going to an airport hotel at the intermediate stop, or the conference centre thingy.
Awful. Absolutely awful. At least in the big US airports you can usually get some half-decent beer these days.
Denver is the worst plane change I've come across recently. Nearly missed a connecting flight because they require changing passengers to go through the same security as everyone coming in from the outside.
My favorite US airport is Santa Ana, although I do quite like MCI (Kansas City) as well (although the salads in the airport restaurant are gruesome)
O'Hare is tedious, JFK shabby, LAX appalling designed, Newark a mess. SFO is ok, I suppose - and Logan not too bad.
What, no love for the black hole of dreams that is Atlanta?
No, no, no, please don't
I haven't flown international from there since the early 1990s...but I had to change through there on my way to Charlotte last year and it still brings me out in a cold sweat
Faisal Islam @faisalislam 50s51 seconds ago Jon Craig reports that the PM's PPS Gavin Williamson has just cast a proxy vote at the end on behalf of the PM
So not 100% well before 6pm. Do they start counting before close of ballot?
Well If I've heard Heathrow might not be such a good idea these days.
Heathrow is the most expensive plan that requires very high landing charges to fund it (hint BA does not want to pay, why do you think they bought Aer Lingus?). Plus the money quoted does not include any money towards any transport improvements (estimated to well over £10 billion) required. In contrast Gatwick is much cheaper and easier to build and will fund all transport requirements needed.
Apart from all that, the rumours is that Heathrow will never be able to borrow the money itself on the markets anymore.
If anyone has any sense it's Gatwick.
I agree that Gatwick is the better option. However, living near it and traveling past it, by road and rail, on a regular basis, I strongly question the associated infrastructure costs that will fall on the taxpayer. I think the plans are grossly optimistic as would anyone who cared to pop down to the train station or try and drive up the M23 at the airport's peak times. Peak times incidentally which, in the morning, coincide with the commuter crush on the London-South Coast railways.
It's a bugger to get to. I had a flight at 7am yesterday from Gatwick & had to leave home at 5am - at Heathrow I could have got another 30 minutes kip!
I think we have been here before, Mr. Charles, and my position has not changed. There are more important considerations in deciding national infrastructure than what time you have to get up in the morning.
Besides in your recent house move you could have chosen to move to South London Rather than North London. You could even have chosen to move to the formerly wonderful county of Sussex - not that I could recommend it, mind, but we could do with some more people with your level of clout about the place.
If Herstmonceux was up for sale I might consider it...
(And some might consider my grumpiness in the early morning a risk to national security)
If there's a coronation, how long until Cameron toddles off?
About 17 hours
Cameron will have to do the governments response to Chilcot tomorrow, so it'll be Thursday or Friday I'd have thought.
This could be the speech of his career tomorrow, eclipsing even the excellent statesman's response to the Bloody Sunday inquiry.
I suspect his response to Chilcot will be masterful. Cameron is always great at these things.
As PM Cameron really has frustrated the hell out of me. At times he can be an exceptional statesman but at other times he has really demeaned the office he holds.
He could have been one of the all-time great British Prime Ministers, IMO.
Well If I've heard Heathrow might not be such a good idea these days.
Heathrow is the most expensive plan that requires very high landing charges to fund it (hint BA does not want to pay, why do you think they bought Aer Lingus?). Plus the money quoted does not include any money towards any transport improvements (estimated to well over £10 billion) required. In contrast Gatwick is much cheaper and easier to build and will fund all transport requirements needed.
Apart from all that, the rumours is that Heathrow will never be able to borrow the money itself on the markets anymore.
If anyone has any sense it's Gatwick.
I agree that Gatwick is the better option. However, living near it and traveling past it, by road and rail, on a regular basis, I strongly question the associated infrastructure costs that will fall on the taxpayer. I think the plans are grossly optimistic as would anyone who cared to pop down to the train station or try and drive up the M23 at the airport's peak times. Peak times incidentally which, in the morning, coincide with the commuter crush on the London-South Coast railways.
It's a bugger to get to. I had a flight at 7am yesterday from Gatwick & had to leave home at 5am - at Heathrow I could have got another 30 minutes kip!
Heathrow wins on everything except noise. The airport needs to serve not just London but the southern half of the UK. It should therefore be located to the north or north west of London, thus eliminating Gatwick and, categorically, Boris Island. It could be in Luton but the hilly terrain isn't suitable. Heathrow has the connections and infrastructure in place. Expansion requires relatively little disruption compared with alternative airports - although the people affected would see it differently of course.
The one real problem is that the landing flight path goes right over London and disturbs their sleep. This suggests a deal to me. Runways don't make noise; airplanes do. So, Heathrow, you get your extra runway but in return you are going to have to take measurable steps to reduce overall noise. They can do that by tightening up on aircraft types that are allowed to land at Heathrow; adjusting glideslopes; rescheduling early and late aircraft movements and so on. With that deal in place, the Government can go to residents and say, you can keep the noise as it is or you can get less noise in exchange for another runway. Which do you want?
Singapore and Hong Kong are, as you say, excellent.
Being given a tiny boiled sweet by passport control does not make an airport excellent.
I don't think I've ever had a more stressful travel experience than trying to change planes at Singapore. A connecting flight with the same carrier required a walk of OVER A MILE and two airside passes through security.
With only a 45 minute turnaround.
Immediately after the initial 15 hour flight to Singapore.
And then there's the stupid metro system out of Changi airport which requires you to change trains after about two stops - basically everybody and their luggage unless they're going to an airport hotel at the intermediate stop, or the conference centre thingy.
Awful. Absolutely awful. At least in the big US airports you can usually get some half-decent beer these days.
Denver is the worst plane change I've come across recently. Nearly missed a connecting flight because they require changing passengers to go through the same security as everyone coming in from the outside.
My favorite US airport is Santa Ana, although I do quite like MCI (Kansas City) as well (although the salads in the airport restaurant are gruesome)
O'Hare is tedious, JFK shabby, LAX appalling designed, Newark a mess. SFO is ok, I suppose - and Logan not too bad.
What, no love for the black hole of dreams that is Atlanta?
No, no, no, please don't
I haven't flown international from there since the early 1990s...but I had to change through there on my way to Charlotte last year and it still brings me out in a cold sweat
I think the Americans have discovered a way to stop the passage of time, speed up ageing and destroy productivity all in one space.
Well If I've heard Heathrow might not be such a good idea these days.
Heathrow is the most expensive plan that requires very high landing charges to fund it (hint BA does not want to pay, why do you think they bought Aer Lingus?). Plus the money quoted does not include any money towards any transport improvements (estimated to well over £10 billion) required. In contrast Gatwick is much cheaper and easier to build and will fund all transport requirements needed.
Apart from all that, the rumours is that Heathrow will never be able to borrow the money itself on the markets anymore.
If anyone has any sense it's Gatwick.
I agree that Gatwick is the better option. However, living near it and traveling past it, by road and rail, on a regular basis, I strongly question the associated infrastructure costs that will fall on the taxpayer. I think the plans are grossly optimistic as would anyone who cared to pop down to the train station or try and drive up the M23 at the airport's peak times. Peak times incidentally which, in the morning, coincide with the commuter crush on the London-South Coast railways.
It's a bugger to get to. I had a flight at 7am yesterday from Gatwick & had to leave home at 5am - at Heathrow I could have got another 30 minutes kip!
Gatwick faces massive problems that mean its a non starter.
Its in the wrong place with dreadful transport links and no way of improving those links without magically changing the road network and rail infrastructure.
The area its in has beyond full employment already, so where's the work force going to come from?
There's also nowhere for all the new employees to live and no space to build anymore houses.
Its a GIP/Stewart Wingate pipe dream with mega bonuses coming their way if it succeeds.
If both LGW and LHR get approval, LGW doesn't happen, as all the potential investors know that all the airlines will stay or go to LHR and LGW will end up with a Manchester Airport like white elephant second runway.
Airports in the Far East are the best by a long shot. Tokyo, Singapore, Seoul, Shanghai, Hong Kong. And the people who work there aren't in a foul mood, unlike most other places.
Tokyo??? Narita is a 'mare.
Seoul is nice, but a long way away from the City.
Singapore and Hong Kong are, as you say, excellent.
Get the BA flight to Haneda if you can.
I must do that; and Haneda also avoids the appalling hour and a bit bus or taxi ride.
What do you think of the oh la la claim I posted at 17.16?
The Bund thing?
From a technical perspective, it's an issue because the ECB buys bonds according to the size of the economy, rather than the pile of outstanding debt. Furthermore, they have certain restrictions about the maturities of the bonds they issue.
Now, there are ways around this: one you could reweight the 'pool' so that QE was by size of bond market, rather than by side of GDP (which would be good for Italy and Greece). But it's also possible for the German government to do things to help to, so when bonds reach maturity, that - instead of issuing 30 year debt - they issue 8 to 10 year debt to make it eligible to the ECB.
The ECB is also stepping into the corporate bond and covered bond markets, which takes some of the stress off the government bond market.
I suspect we'll see a classic Euro-fudge: the Germans will oblige the ECB by issuing some shorter term debt, there'll be a new 75% GDP, 25% bond market equation, and the foray into the world of corporate bonds will take up any slack.
While we await the smoke signals (or whatever) from Westminster, in Australia, the vote inches toward its non-conclusion.
According to ABC, with 80% counted, the Coalition has 70, the Labor Party 67 and Others 5. That leaves 8 still to be called and while Turnbull thinks he will get his majority, the ABC election guru doesn't agree and is predicting 73 for the Coalition, 72 for Labor and 5 for the Others which will be very well Hung (guffaw!).
The Green will likely ally with Labour and the other four are one from the Nick Xenophon Team and three local Independents (one of whom I think is slightly closer to Labor than the Liberals). Given some outlying areas won't finish the count before Friday, it may take some time.
I think Shorten has a chance of cobbling something together but he needs at least 72 ALP seats - less than that and Turnbull will probably have enough to stay on.
Well If I've heard Heathrow might not be such a good idea these days.
Heathrow is the most expensive plan that requires very high landing charges to fund it (hint BA does not want to pay, why do you think they bought Aer Lingus?). Plus the money quoted does not include any money towards any transport improvements (estimated to well over £10 billion) required. In contrast Gatwick is much cheaper and easier to build and will fund all transport requirements needed.
Apart from all that, the rumours is that Heathrow will never be able to borrow the money itself on the markets anymore.
If anyone has any sense it's Gatwick.
I agree that Gatwick is the better option. However, living near it and traveling past it, by road and rail, on a regular basis, I strongly question the associated infrastructure costs that will fall on the taxpayer. I think the plans are grossly optimistic as would anyone who cared to pop down to the train station or try and drive up the M23 at the airport's peak times. Peak times incidentally which, in the morning, coincide with the commuter crush on the London-South Coast railways.
It's a bugger to get to. I had a flight at 7am yesterday from Gatwick & had to leave home at 5am - at Heathrow I could have got another 30 minutes kip!
Faisal Islam @faisalislam 2m2 minutes ago "PM didn't vote" - I should clarify - his PPS late visit to the polling booth was NOT a proxy vote for @David_Cameron
Singapore and Hong Kong are, as you say, excellent.
Being given a tiny boiled sweet by passport control does not make an airport excellent.
I don't think I've ever had a more stressful travel experience than trying to change planes at Singapore. A connecting flight with the same carrier required a walk of OVER A MILE and two airside passes through security.
With only a 45 minute turnaround.
Immediately after the initial 15 hour flight to Singapore.
And then there's the stupid metro system out of Changi airport which requires you to change trains after about two stops - basically everybody and their luggage unless they're going to an airport hotel at the intermediate stop, or the conference centre thingy.
Awful. Absolutely awful. At least in the big US airports you can usually get some half-decent beer these days.
Denver is the worst plane change I've come across recently. Nearly missed a connecting flight because they require changing passengers to go through the same security as everyone coming in from the outside.
Well If I've heard Heathrow might not be such a good idea these days.
Heathrow is the most expensive plan that requires very high landing charges to fund it (hint BA does not want to pay, why do you think they bought Aer Lingus?). Plus the money quoted does not include any money towards any transport improvements (estimated to well over £10 billion) required. In contrast Gatwick is much cheaper and easier to build and will fund all transport requirements needed.
Apart from all that, the rumours is that Heathrow will never be able to borrow the money itself on the markets anymore.
If anyone has any sense it's Gatwick.
I agree that Gatwick is the better option. However, living near it and traveling past it, by road and rail, on a regular basis, I strongly question the associated infrastructure costs that will fall on the taxpayer. I think the plans are grossly optimistic as would anyone who cared to pop down to the train station or try and drive up the M23 at the airport's peak times. Peak times incidentally which, in the morning, coincide with the commuter crush on the London-South Coast railways.
It's a bugger to get to. I had a flight at 7am yesterday from Gatwick & had to leave home at 5am - at Heathrow I could have got another 30 minutes kip!
You fly commercial???
iSam made a joke about this months ago that still makes me chuckle - he said @Charles had a solid mahogany helicopter with gold plated taps.
Well If I've heard Heathrow might not be such a good idea these days.
Heathrow is the most expensive plan that requires very high landing charges to fund it (hint BA does not want to pay, why do you think they bought Aer Lingus?). Plus the money quoted does not include any money towards any transport improvements (estimated to well over £10 billion) required. In contrast Gatwick is much cheaper and easier to build and will fund all transport requirements needed.
Apart from all that, the rumours is that Heathrow will never be able to borrow the money itself on the markets anymore.
If anyone has any sense it's Gatwick.
I agree that Gatwick is the better option. However, living near it and traveling past it, by road and rail, on a regular basis, I strongly question the associated infrastructure costs that will fall on the taxpayer. I think the plans are grossly optimistic as would anyone who cared to pop down to the train station or try and drive up the M23 at the airport's peak times. Peak times incidentally which, in the morning, coincide with the commuter crush on the London-South Coast railways.
It's a bugger to get to. I had a flight at 7am yesterday from Gatwick & had to leave home at 5am - at Heathrow I could have got another 30 minutes kip!
If it's Gatwick I just don't go. Prefer to go to City or Heathrow and fly via somewhere else.
Well If I've heard Heathrow might not be such a good idea these days.
Heathrow is the most expensive plan that requires very high landing charges to fund it (hint BA does not want to pay, why do you think they bought Aer Lingus?). Plus the money quoted does not include any money towards any transport improvements (estimated to well over £10 billion) required. In contrast Gatwick is much cheaper and easier to build and will fund all transport requirements needed.
Apart from all that, the rumours is that Heathrow will never be able to borrow the money itself on the markets anymore.
If anyone has any sense it's Gatwick.
I agree that Gatwick is the better option. However, living near it and traveling past it, by road and rail, on a regular basis, I strongly question the associated infrastructure costs that will fall on the taxpayer. I think the plans are grossly optimistic as would anyone who cared to pop down to the train station or try and drive up the M23 at the airport's peak times. Peak times incidentally which, in the morning, coincide with the commuter crush on the London-South Coast railways.
It's a bugger to get to. I had a flight at 7am yesterday from Gatwick & had to leave home at 5am - at Heathrow I could have got another 30 minutes kip!
If Gove has collapsed, does anyone think Boris regrets pulling out?
ie Could Boris still have made the Final 2?
Does anyone know the real reason Boris withdrew – Gove’s comment didn’t seem to justify it.
My theory:
Boris never wanted to be PM implementing Brexit. He is a PM for "the good times" so he wants someone else to do all the unpopular Brexit stuff first.
So he and Gove staged this whole "bust up". They hope the inexperienced Leadsom will beat May with the members. They think she will be weak and that leave's Boris and Gove effectively running the government as DPM and Chancellor respectively, behind the scenes.
Around late 2019, after Brexit is secured and things are improving rapidly, they will knife Leadsom and Boris will become leader for 2020.
Hasn't the Bank Of England wanted a weaker Sterling for some time? Might a weaker pound help with regard to the global imbalances? Though not if it strengthens the dollar of course.
In theory, a weaker Sterling makes our exports cheaper, and makes imports more expensive. Therefore helping with our imbalances.
Unfortunately, demand for a lot of the things we import (such as oil, and natural gas) is very price inelastic. If Sterling halved, then our energy import bill would almost double.
Our exports are largely price inelastic too. Hence the fact that Sterling has fallen from $2.10 in 2007 to $1.30, and our exports have only increased 20% or so in that time.
$2.10 How was the dollar ever that weak ?
It was more than $2 to the £ for the whole of 2006-07 period while I was living in California as a student. Happy days.
In was in the 1.90s when I bought my house in California (at 40% off the asking price - that's what a bear market in property looks like)
Your experience in that may well soon prove invaluable here!
As a rule I don't divest strategic assets, so I will likely remain structurally long the London property market (both in the "super prime residential" and the "unique venue" segments)
If you're going to live in your house for the next 30 years (as I suspect both you and I will do), then then the vagaries of the property market are irrelevent.
However, what we're likely to end up with is quite an illiquid market, with very few transactions from non-forced sellers.
I thought you were planning on being a billionaire by then and hence would find the need to upgrade?
However, what we're likely to end up with is quite an illiquid market, with very few transactions from non-forced sellers.
In 2008 the price of property dropped 20% in a year. The Brown government (via Jack Straw ISTR) passed guidelines that made it damn nearly impossible to evict somebody in a court, and prices increased by about 5% in 2009 and stabilised. The market from 2009 to about 2012 was then in the stagnation phase you describe, with few buyers and sellers and low volumes. Cameron (spit) then introduced Help To Buy and its variants, and prices sped upwards again, further encouraged by Osborne's stupidity in preannouncing BTL changes in October 2015. So we currently have a toppy market.
There is anecdotage about post-Brexit uncertainty causing buyers to pull out, even a few days before completion. The latest RICS survey prior to Brexit was predicting a fall, so that will only be exacerbated. Whether this is temporary or longer-term is unknown.
If Gove has collapsed, does anyone think Boris regrets pulling out?
ie Could Boris still have made the Final 2?
Cameron may regret not sleeping on it. And doubtless half the Cabinet is looking at the ballot paper and wishing they'd stood themselves. As Jeremy Corbyn could have told them, you have to be in it to win it.
If there's a coronation, how long until Cameron toddles off?
About 17 hours
Cameron will have to do the governments response to Chilcot tomorrow, so it'll be Thursday or Friday I'd have thought.
This could be the speech of his career tomorrow, eclipsing even the excellent statesman's response to the Bloody Sunday inquiry.
I suspect his response to Chilcot will be masterful. Cameron is always great at these things.
As PM Cameron really has frustrated the hell out of me. At times he can be an exceptional statesman but at other times he has really demeaned the office he holds.
He could have been one of the all-time great British Prime Ministers, IMO.
Well If I've heard Heathrow might not be such a good idea these days.
Heathrow is the most expensive plan that requires very high landing charges to fund it (hint BA does not want to pay, why do you think they bought Aer Lingus?). Plus the money quoted does not include any money towards any transport improvements (estimated to well over £10 billion) required. In contrast Gatwick is much cheaper and easier to build and will fund all transport requirements needed.
Apart from all that, the rumours is that Heathrow will never be able to borrow the money itself on the markets anymore.
If anyone has any sense it's Gatwick.
I agree that Gatwick is the better option. However, living near it and traveling past it, by road and rail, on a regular basis, I strongly question the associated infrastructure costs that will fall on the taxpayer. I think the plans are grossly optimistic as would anyone who cared to pop down to the train station or try and drive up the M23 at the airport's peak times. Peak times incidentally which, in the morning, coincide with the commuter crush on the London-South Coast railways.
Is it still the case that there's no exit from the M23 between the M25 and the airport, around ten miles? Missed a flight once after an accident closed the M23 and there was no way of getting round it. Serious infrastructure needed at LGW anyway, another runway would only make the issues worse.
They should really build both LHR and LGW runways, if they want an outside-the-box idea then an airside Hyperloop linking the two airports would allow fast transfers between them.
Mr. Pit, quite right there is no exit from the M23 after the M25 interchange and before Gatwick, and to be honest it would be difficult to think up an economically viable case why there should be so. Oh, and the distance is nine miles and not 10.
Building a hyperloop between Gatwick and Heathrow would be spiffing - the present bus transfer fails most hours of every day because the M25 from the M3 (often the A3) around to the Heathrow Junctions is usually down to stop-start crawl in both directions, making sensible journey planning impossible. Back in the day there was a helicopter service which worked tremendously well (and wasn't that expensive), but the eco-loons killed that off.
That said who would invest in a high-speed, non-stop train service between Gatwick and Heathrow? It would be humongously expensive to build and be subject to more planning objections from Surrey residents than you could shake a stick at. The length of time to get T5 planning permission would pale into insignificance by comparison.
My only losing CON leadership outcome is Fox. I win on all the other 4.
We all lose if Fox is the Prime Minister.
Don't exaggerate. Think of all the puns TSE could make on Liam as he Fox up this or that decision.
It would be a bit rubbish for the rest of us though, I grant you.
This rules Leadsom and Gove out immediately. They feature in very few lyrics. They should use this rule for future contests. "Sorry Mr Davies, your name doesn't scan".
If there's a coronation, how long until Cameron toddles off?
About 17 hours
Cameron will have to do the governments response to Chilcot tomorrow, so it'll be Thursday or Friday I'd have thought.
This could be the speech of his career tomorrow, eclipsing even the excellent statesman's response to the Bloody Sunday inquiry.
I suspect his response to Chilcot will be masterful. Cameron is always great at these things.
As PM Cameron really has frustrated the hell out of me. At times he can be an exceptional statesman but at other times he has really demeaned the office he holds.
He could have been one of the all-time great British Prime Ministers, IMO.
As could Blair ,,, if only .......
The warning signs were there for Blair from the start. The arrogance. The dodgy financial dealings. The wife.
Seriously I don't think Blair could ever have been an all time great. He is too flawed.
Cameron really could have been. Imagine if he'd LED us out of the EU after they laughed his negotiation out of Brussels...
Is there a market for which newspaper is going to splash a leaked copy of Chilcot's report on tomorrow's front page?
It's 2.8 million words. No one would be able to lift the paper.
Could be printed at the size of text in a microdot?
I can provide the Reader's Digest version.
"No one is to blame. Lessons will be learned. Parliament must provide more oversight in future. Here is my invoice. Prompt payment would be appreciated".
"No one is to blame. Lessons will be learned. Parliament must provide more oversight in future. Here is my invoice. Prompt payment would be appreciated".
The next one of these should be done on a fixed cost basis. If it's going to be pointless then at the very least it should be quick too.
For Leadsom to decide to continue in the contest, assuming all the lesser players fall away, she surely needs to be within around 80 votes of May in the first ballot.
Comments
We do live in interesting times. Maybe I should write a history.
Besides in your recent house move you could have chosen to move to South London Rather than North London. You could even have chosen to move to the formerly wonderful county of Sussex - not that I could recommend it, mind, but we could do with some more people with your level of clout about the place.
I haven't flown international from there since the early 1990s...but I had to change through there on my way to Charlotte last year and it still brings me out in a cold sweat
Oh wait!
https://twitter.com/LouiseMensch/status/750350197339918336
Jon Craig reports that the PM's PPS Gavin Williamson has just cast a proxy vote at the end on behalf of the PM
So not 100% well before 6pm. Do they start counting before close of ballot?
(And some might consider my grumpiness in the early morning a risk to national security)
What really matters is communication.
As PM Cameron really has frustrated the hell out of me. At times he can be an exceptional statesman but at other times he has really demeaned the office he holds.
He could have been one of the all-time great British Prime Ministers, IMO.
The one real problem is that the landing flight path goes right over London and disturbs their sleep. This suggests a deal to me. Runways don't make noise; airplanes do. So, Heathrow, you get your extra runway but in return you are going to have to take measurable steps to reduce overall noise. They can do that by tightening up on aircraft types that are allowed to land at Heathrow; adjusting glideslopes; rescheduling early and late aircraft movements and so on. With that deal in place, the Government can go to residents and say, you can keep the noise as it is or you can get less noise in exchange for another runway. Which do you want?
Announcement on first round of Tory leadership vote is imminent...
10:01 AM - 5 Jul 2016
??
ie Could Boris still have made the Final 2?
Its in the wrong place with dreadful transport links and no way of improving those links without magically changing the road network and rail infrastructure.
The area its in has beyond full employment already, so where's the work force going to come from?
There's also nowhere for all the new employees to live and no space to build anymore houses.
Its a GIP/Stewart Wingate pipe dream with mega bonuses coming their way if it succeeds.
If both LGW and LHR get approval, LGW doesn't happen, as all the potential investors know that all the airlines will stay or go to LHR and LGW will end up with a Manchester Airport like white elephant second runway.
Just wondering where the pearl-wearing May will kiss hands.
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/750375293681098752
Naz Shah reinstated in Labour.
https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/750375028865269761
Labour have finally lost the Jewish vote. In history most Jews were labour supporters; no longer.
Cameron may benefit by comparison with Blair, but we'll see how his successor performs.
From a technical perspective, it's an issue because the ECB buys bonds according to the size of the economy, rather than the pile of outstanding debt. Furthermore, they have certain restrictions about the maturities of the bonds they issue.
Now, there are ways around this: one you could reweight the 'pool' so that QE was by size of bond market, rather than by side of GDP (which would be good for Italy and Greece). But it's also possible for the German government to do things to help to, so when bonds reach maturity, that - instead of issuing 30 year debt - they issue 8 to 10 year debt to make it eligible to the ECB.
The ECB is also stepping into the corporate bond and covered bond markets, which takes some of the stress off the government bond market.
I suspect we'll see a classic Euro-fudge: the Germans will oblige the ECB by issuing some shorter term debt, there'll be a new 75% GDP, 25% bond market equation, and the foray into the world of corporate bonds will take up any slack.
According to ABC, with 80% counted, the Coalition has 70, the Labor Party 67 and Others 5. That leaves 8 still to be called and while Turnbull thinks he will get his majority, the ABC election guru doesn't agree and is predicting 73 for the Coalition, 72 for Labor and 5 for the Others which will be very well Hung (guffaw!).
The Green will likely ally with Labour and the other four are one from the Nick Xenophon Team and three local Independents (one of whom I think is slightly closer to Labor than the Liberals). Given some outlying areas won't finish the count before Friday, it may take some time.
I think Shorten has a chance of cobbling something together but he needs at least 72 ALP seats - less than that and Turnbull will probably have enough to stay on.
Does seem odd that he pulled out - unless he just panicked and of course he had to decide within a couple of hours.
Couldn't fit the rest of them in the lift.
"PM didn't vote" - I should clarify - his PPS late visit to the polling booth was NOT a proxy vote for @David_Cameron
Boris never wanted to be PM implementing Brexit. He is a PM for "the good times" so he wants someone else to do all the unpopular Brexit stuff first.
So he and Gove staged this whole "bust up". They hope the inexperienced Leadsom will beat May with the members. They think she will be weak and that leave's Boris and Gove effectively running the government as DPM and Chancellor respectively, behind the scenes.
Around late 2019, after Brexit is secured and things are improving rapidly, they will knife Leadsom and Boris will become leader for 2020.
Naz Shah reinstated in Labour.
https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/750375028865269761
Labour have finally lost the Jewish vote. In history most Jews were labour supporters; no longer.'
That didn't take long, what a vile party.
There is anecdotage about post-Brexit uncertainty causing buyers to pull out, even a few days before completion. The latest RICS survey prior to Brexit was predicting a fall, so that will only be exacerbated. Whether this is temporary or longer-term is unknown.
https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/750371966373232640
It would be a bit rubbish for the rest of us though, I grant you.
Building a hyperloop between Gatwick and Heathrow would be spiffing - the present bus transfer fails most hours of every day because the M25 from the M3 (often the A3) around to the Heathrow Junctions is usually down to stop-start crawl in both directions, making sensible journey planning impossible. Back in the day there was a helicopter service which worked tremendously well (and wasn't that expensive), but the eco-loons killed that off.
That said who would invest in a high-speed, non-stop train service between Gatwick and Heathrow? It would be humongously expensive to build and be subject to more planning objections from Surrey residents than you could shake a stick at. The length of time to get T5 planning permission would pale into insignificance by comparison.
As it is a secret vote the PPS could use the proxy to vote whichever way he/she fancied.
(saved me 23% on my food shop this week...)
Seriously I don't think Blair could ever have been an all time great. He is too flawed.
Cameron really could have been. Imagine if he'd LED us out of the EU after they laughed his negotiation out of Brussels...
"No one is to blame. Lessons will be learned. Parliament must provide more oversight in future. Here is my invoice. Prompt payment would be appreciated".
He has a ready made TV Channel with Fox News.
'Mrs Sandpit just commented, having never seen him before, that he looked like a serious alcoholic.'
Looks like it.
The result is due in half an hour's time!
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-05/u-k-prime-minister-has-power-to-trigger-brexit-letwin-says
May 165.. Leadsom 66 .. Gove 48 .. Crabb 34 .. Fox 16..