Mr. JS, Fox is rightly favourite, but it's not a done deal. I think Leadsom and May are safe (especially the latter, of course) but Gove or Crabb might stumble.
FPT @DaemonBarber Enjoyed the essay. Inspired by that:
I might very well be wrong on Brexit. We may achieve all the downsides and none of the upsides. That would be an extremely poor outcome for the country.
I'm with a number of the middling Brexiteers on here who want to move to an EEA-like solution (and be flagging that to the markets asap). Some of us see that as a transitional arrangement, others that it's a permanent home. It doesn't really matter at this point.
Unfortunately, it's not going to become clear on whether I was wrong for some considerable time yet. We're just twelve days post-referendum. The shock and awe is still rolling across the economy. Even overseas a lot of the papers still have Brexit for breakfast, lunch and tea.
Basically, we need Brexit to move to page two (not here, it'll be news for a while), and for us to get our new administration rolling.
The process of Brexit will take a good ten years as we move from a rules based system to a painfully negotiated set of reciprocal deals. There will be a huge number of contracts that have been entered into on a set of legal or regulatory principles that will no longer apply and a further slew that will be delayed or abandoned entirely until the new order takes place. This won't be sorted in weeks or months.
In the meantime we will also pick up an FTA with New Zealand, Australia, Canada, possibly India and several other smaller commonwealth nations, which in all likelihood we will have none of under the EU in five years time.
Yes but we have a 2-3 year deadline. If you think a trade deal can be signed in that time while also negotiating with the EU, I have a bridge to sell you.
It's 5.4mb, zipped, and contains 30 chapters. I don't know exactly how many words it is, but I'd guess something a little north of 100,000. (3,000 words a chapter may be on the low side.)
People hugely underestimate the complexity of these kinds of things.
MS Word has a find and replace function. We just need to take somebody else's work and swap the country names (lol).
Unbelievably the EU have been caught lifting language from US trade agreements in the past. Most recently for Ukraine.
I always hesitate to be simplistic, given there are actual economists and City folk on here.
However, even though modern economies are extremely complex and interlinked, a good chunk of the populace are engaged in wholly domestic trade. Cutting each other's hair. Selling each other insurance and so on.
What we needed was a good run in the footy. What we need now is a gloriously sunny July/August. We need people to spend money. But only money they actually have in their pockets. No credit .
MS Word has a find and replace function. We just need to take somebody else's work and swap the country names (lol).
I was going to say, large consulting companies seem to have an amazing ability to pull a thousand page project proposal almost out of thin air in less than a week by doing pretty much exactly that, find another contract they did in the last few years that is broadly similar, search and replace key details, then tart up a few sections which refer to any key differences, finally label it as a draft in case they missed anything embarrassing which the customer picks up on.
Fascinating Speccie article out there on whether Italy might follow the UK.
Also their term for Brexit 'la Bomba Britannica' is much better.
Very unlikely to happen unless in the wake of a massive economic collapse which would not be good for any of us right now.
If another country does exit the EU in the next ten years, my money would be on it either being one of the Scandis, or Italy.
15 years of virtually zero growth would do that to a country...
The one thing I notice as I visit Florence on an annual basis is the slow increase in street vendors and others of African descent... So I do wonder if that zero growth is actually a falling GDP per person....
Give Ken Clarke a break! Jesus he's been at the front line of politics for twenty thirty years. The man is allowed to look a bit of a mess if he wants, many would have given up.
Rifkind hasn't been in government in ten years, by comparison.
Fascinating Speccie article out there on whether Italy might follow the UK.
Also their term for Brexit 'la Bomba Britannica' is much better.
Very unlikely to happen unless in the wake of a massive economic collapse which would not be good for any of us right now.
If another country does exit the EU in the next ten years, my money would be on it either being one of the Scandis, or Italy.
15 years of virtually zero growth would do that to a country...
The one thing I notice as I visit Florence on an annual basis is the slow increase in street vendors and others of African descent... So I do wonder if that zero growth is actually a falling GDP per person....
I always hesitate to be simplistic, given there are actual economists and City folk on here.
However, even though modern economies are extremely complex and interlinked, a good chunk of the populace are engaged in wholly domestic trade. Cutting each other's hair. Selling each other insurance and so on.
What we needed was a good run in the footy. What we need now is a gloriously sunny July/August. We need people to spend money. But only money they actually have in their pockets. No credit .
It is worth remembering that we have record employment and record vacancies at the moment so coming down off that does not necessarily equate to a severe reverse.
One of the great unknowns is the behaviour of the transient worker population in the UK if the economic climate alters.
Millions of people currently residing in the UK call somewhere else Home.
Decent article, but I disagree with him on one point. The referendum commits the new Prime Minister to leaving the EU because that was the question asked. Everything else is up for grabs as part of the best deal she can get that achieves that one objective. So when Hagues says, "There is no way of reassuring these companies about continued access to the European single market on the same terms, since that will almost certainly be incompatible with the control of migration that was such a huge issue for British voters." there is no commitment to control migration if that would get in the way of the best deal that removes us from the EU.
In my view the whole thing is retrograde, but the result is clear and the ship has sailed. There is no need to drag her down as well.
MS Word has a find and replace function. We just need to take somebody else's work and swap the country names (lol).
I was going to say, large consulting companies seem to have an amazing ability to pull a thousand page project proposal almost out of thin air in less than a week by doing pretty much exactly that, find another contract they did in the last few years that is broadly similar, search and replace key details, then tart up a few sections which refer to any key differences, finally label it as a draft in case they missed anything embarrassing which the customer picks up on.
That is almost precisely what Portugal did with their agreement with China over Macau. They to the Hong Kong document and adopted it mutandis mutatis.
Rumours Gove could withdraw after today's ballot. Interesting.
I'm still not entirely sure the whole thing with Boris and Gove hasn't been completely staged in order to get Andrea Leadsom into the final two.
Leadson is inexperienced (and they probably think very weak) which if she won would leave her "fronting" the operation while Boris and Gove are in control of the government behind the scene's...
Lordy lordy - what could possibly go wrong - a wonk and a twonk manipulating a gonk!
@lewis_goodall: This says it all about the PLP: "Owen Smith is annoyed Angela Eagle won't agree to arbitration to decide who is the unity candidate." #wato
what a utter shower.... spineless cretins the lot of them. Corbyn should have been gone over a week ago.
Rock, paper, scissors?
Arbitration? What are they going to do, call in ACAS?
@lewis_goodall: This says it all about the PLP: "Owen Smith is annoyed Angela Eagle won't agree to arbitration to decide who is the unity candidate." #wato
what a utter shower.... spineless cretins the lot of them. Corbyn should have been gone over a week ago.
Rock, paper, scissors?
Arbitration? What are they going to do, call in ACAS?
I wonder if they've actually forgotten they're politicians. They're acting more like office workers who've fallen out over who washes the coffee cups. This is not leadership behaviour.
Has there been anything that you didn't expect post Brexit?
In terms of real developments - no, not really. I slightly underestimated what a prat Juncker is, but he's marginal to the whole thing anyway
What has surprised me is the government's utter incompetence. They should have had contingency plans in place and ready to roll out for a Brexit vote, and then scenario plans for how to approach different options. They clearly hadn't done any work on this whatsoever (and I learnt after the event they hadn't done any on iScot either). I'd assumed that when Cameron(?) said before the event that there weren't any contingency plans he was lying...after all no government could be that useless, could they?
The other thing that has surprised and disappointed me is Cameron's invisibility since the vote. I wasn't surprised that he resigned - but post that he should have been out and in public maintaining confidence. He's deserted his post. Distinctly unimpressive.
May 138 .. Leadsom 44 .. Gove 27 .. Crabb 25 .. Fox 8
If guess Gove will drop out tonight if he's beaten by Crabb. Would he endorse Leadsom or May?
Tonight will be the first real indicator of what is going on.
There will be people pledging for someone but with no intention of voting for them
There will be people holding back a bunch of supporters to create the illusion of momentum
We could easily see Leadsom/Gove/Crabb/Fox jump up 40 votes from people that they have asked not to pledge publically but who vote for them in private, thereby creating a "story"
@lewis_goodall: This says it all about the PLP: "Owen Smith is annoyed Angela Eagle won't agree to arbitration to decide who is the unity candidate." #wato
what a utter shower.... spineless cretins the lot of them. Corbyn should have been gone over a week ago.
Rock, paper, scissors?
Arbitration? What are they going to do, call in ACAS?
Surely they mean mediation rather than arbitration!
May 138 .. Leadsom 44 .. Gove 27 .. Crabb 25 .. Fox 8
If guess Gove will drop out tonight if he's beaten by Crabb. Would he endorse Leadsom or May?
Brutus has said the PM must be a Brexiteer. So Gove will endorse Leadsom until a few minutes before the Thursday voting and then back May as a matter of principle having struggled overnight with the decision.
Rumours Gove could withdraw after today's ballot. Interesting.
I'm still not entirely sure the whole thing with Boris and Gove hasn't been completely staged in order to get Andrea Leadsom into the final two.
Leadson is inexperienced (and they probably think very weak) which if she won would leave her "fronting" the operation while Boris and Gove are in control of the government behind the scene's...
Lordy lordy - what could possibly go wrong - a wonk and a twonk manipulating a gonk!
Leadsom - PM
Gove - Chancellor/Minister for Brexit
Boris - DPM
They let Andrea "front" the government for the next 2-3 years, then towards the end of 2019 when all the unpopular Brexit stuff is done, they pull the plug on her leaving Boris as leader for 2020...
If Andrea does become leader she should watch that pair like a hawk...
@lewis_goodall: This says it all about the PLP: "Owen Smith is annoyed Angela Eagle won't agree to arbitration to decide who is the unity candidate." #wato
what a utter shower.... spineless cretins the lot of them. Corbyn should have been gone over a week ago.
Rock, paper, scissors?
Arbitration? What are they going to do, call in ACAS?
Surely they mean mediation rather than arbitration!
May 138 .. Leadsom 44 .. Gove 27 .. Crabb 25 .. Fox 8
If guess Gove will drop out tonight if he's beaten by Crabb. Would he endorse Leadsom or May?
Brutus has said the PM must be a Brexiteer. So Gove will endorse Leadsom until a few minutes before the Thursday voting and then back May as a matter of principle having struggled overnight with the decision.
Or, he might stab himself in the back, as he's run out of other people.
May 138 .. Leadsom 44 .. Gove 27 .. Crabb 25 .. Fox 8
If it finished up May 150, Leadsom 80, Gove 45, Crabb 35 and Fox 20, with Fox being dropped, Crabb would probably throw in the towel as will because he would be unlikely to pick up many from Fox.
The problem with Heathrow is that it will take a long time to complete , say 2030 at the earliest. Gatwick is cheaper and quicker to build, ready 2025, so the benefits would accrue earlier.
Given Brexit speed is important so that factor in favour of Gatwick becomes more relevant.
In terms of real developments - no, not really. I slightly underestimated what a prat Juncker is, but he's marginal to the whole thing anyway
What has surprised me is the government's utter incompetence. They should have had contingency plans in place and ready to roll out for a Brexit vote, and then scenario plans for how to approach different options. They clearly hadn't done any work on this whatsoever (and I learnt after the event they hadn't done any on iScot either). I'd assumed that when Cameron(?) said before the event that there weren't any contingency plans he was lying...after all no government could be that useless, could they?
The other thing that has surprised and disappointed me is Cameron's invisibility since the vote. I wasn't surprised that he resigned - but post that he should have been out and in public maintaining confidence. He's deserted his post. Distinctly unimpressive.
Have to say I completely agree. Even the local Government contacts with whom I work have told me unanimously their finance departments have been reviewing spending numbers in the light of a post-LEAVE Budget and another round of reduced public expenditure.
If local Councils, which usually get pilloried for not being prepared, are prepared, why isn't central Government ? We can't rely on Carney being wheeled out every day with another few billion of financial methadone to keep the markets running.
As for Cameron, he looked emotionally detached on June 24th - I've seen colleagues like that in their last couple of weeks. They have mentally already left - to be fair Cameron follows an honourable tradition of neutrality in the contest to find his successor (which of course Thatcher and Howard didn't).
May 138 .. Leadsom 44 .. Gove 27 .. Crabb 25 .. Fox 8
If it finished up May 150, Leadsom 80, Gove 45, Crabb 35 and Fox 20, with Fox being dropped, Crabb would probably throw in the towel as will because he would be unlikely to pick up many from Fox.
If it's that, Gove Crabb and Fox would all call it a day.
The problem with Heathrow is that it will take a long time to complete , say 2030 at the earliest. Gatwick is cheaper and quicker to build, ready 2025, so the benefits would accrue earlier.
Given Brexit speed is important so that factor in favour of Gatwick becomes more relevant.
LHR3 would be a statement of intent more than anything else.
The problem with Heathrow is that it will take a long time to complete , say 2030 at the earliest. Gatwick is cheaper and quicker to build, ready 2025, so the benefits would accrue earlier.
Given Brexit speed is important so that factor in favour of Gatwick becomes more relevant.
The Chinese would have Boris island ready before 2025..
Has there been anything that you didn't expect post Brexit?
In terms of real developments - no, not really. I slightly underestimated what a prat Juncker is, but he's marginal to the whole thing anyway
What has surprised me is the government's utter incompetence. They should have had contingency plans in place and ready to roll out for a Brexit vote, and then scenario plans for how to approach different options. They clearly hadn't done any work on this whatsoever (and I learnt after the event they hadn't done any on iScot either). I'd assumed that when Cameron(?) said before the event that there weren't any contingency plans he was lying...after all no government could be that useless, could they?
The other thing that has surprised and disappointed me is Cameron's invisibility since the vote. I wasn't surprised that he resigned - but post that he should have been out and in public maintaining confidence. He's deserted his post. Distinctly unimpressive.
Can't disagree with any of that. I guess the usual suspects will be along in a mo' to tell you that Gove and Johnson should have had a plan.......
The problem with Heathrow is that it will take a long time to complete , say 2030 at the earliest. Gatwick is cheaper and quicker to build, ready 2025, so the benefits would accrue earlier.
Given Brexit speed is important so that factor in favour of Gatwick becomes more relevant.
The Chinese would have Boris island ready before 2025..
I don't know why we don't do Boris Island, Heathrow and Gatwick at the same time. Judging by the increasing population, we'll need all three.
The problem with Heathrow is that it will take a long time to complete , say 2030 at the earliest. Gatwick is cheaper and quicker to build, ready 2025, so the benefits would accrue earlier.
Given Brexit speed is important so that factor in favour of Gatwick becomes more relevant.
LHR3 would be a statement of intent more than anything else.
Better to have a statement of intent pissing out than.... oh, hang on, something not quite right there.
For the record, I oppose HS2, LHR Runway 3 and Hinckley Point C.
May 138 .. Leadsom 44 .. Gove 27 .. Crabb 25 .. Fox 8
If guess Gove will drop out tonight if he's beaten by Crabb. Would he endorse Leadsom or May?
Tonight will be the first real indicator of what is going on.
There will be people pledging for someone but with no intention of voting for them
There will be people holding back a bunch of supporters to create the illusion of momentum
We could easily see Leadsom/Gove/Crabb/Fox jump up 40 votes from people that they have asked not to pledge publically but who vote for them in private, thereby creating a "story"
As you imply the declared figures may turn out to be useless since they only include about 50% of the electorate.
Has there been anything that you didn't expect post Brexit?
I The other thing that has surprised and disappointed me is Cameron's invisibility since the vote. I wasn't surprised that he resigned - but post that he should have been out and in public maintaining confidence. He's deserted his post. Distinctly unimpressive.
The Remainers will be after you for this - it's not Cameron's fault as the other side fibbed. Or something.
The problem with Heathrow is that it will take a long time to complete , say 2030 at the earliest. Gatwick is cheaper and quicker to build, ready 2025, so the benefits would accrue earlier.
Given Brexit speed is important so that factor in favour of Gatwick becomes more relevant.
The Chinese would have Boris island ready before 2025..
There's a great episode of Hell On Wheels that compares the ruthless workrate attitude of the Chinese vs a rag tag of Irish, US, ex-slaves building the Pacific railroads. Great Wild West drama.
Anyone with Amazon Prime is missing a treat if they've not watched it.
The problem with Heathrow is that it will take a long time to complete , say 2030 at the earliest. Gatwick is cheaper and quicker to build, ready 2025, so the benefits would accrue earlier.
Given Brexit speed is important so that factor in favour of Gatwick becomes more relevant.
The Chinese would have Boris island ready before 2025..
With Bulgarian and Romanian workforce. No problem !
The problem with Heathrow is that it will take a long time to complete , say 2030 at the earliest. Gatwick is cheaper and quicker to build, ready 2025, so the benefits would accrue earlier.
Given Brexit speed is important so that factor in favour of Gatwick becomes more relevant.
The more general point being that Brexit is going to occur in geological time relative to the 24-hr news cycle and the public's attention span (and even, sadly for some, lives).
No one will notice. Most of the forecasts put our GDP lower (including per capita) at less than it would otherwise have been had we stayed in the EU. But as many on here said pre-vote, what's the difference between actual GDP growth of X vs potential GDP growth of 1.2x X to the man on the street? Not much.
Just a shame that we would otherwise have been better off. But as Leavers have also assured us, for the working people of this country, especially those less well-off, there's more to life than economic growth.
"Put simply, there is no group in British politics offering a way forward that is both politically deliverable at a European level and not economically ruinous for Britain. That is too horrible to contemplate, let alone discuss with the electorate, so the focus, instead, is on the old internal battles: the left and the right of the Labour Party, the “anyone but Boris” caucus in the Conservative parliamentary party."
As for Cameron, he looked emotionally detached on June 24th - I've seen colleagues like that in their last couple of weeks. They have mentally already left
In the FCO, that condition used to be called "boat happy" - they were already mentally on the boat back home ...
The problem with Heathrow is that it will take a long time to complete , say 2030 at the earliest. Gatwick is cheaper and quicker to build, ready 2025, so the benefits would accrue earlier.
Given Brexit speed is important so that factor in favour of Gatwick becomes more relevant.
LHR3 would be a statement of intent more than anything else.
Better to have a statement of intent pissing out than.... oh, hang on, something not quite right there.
For the record, I oppose HS2, LHR Runway 3 and Hinckley Point C.
Well, I suspect you'll get two of your three wishes then. Hinckley involves the French: got to be completely off the table now. HS2 will die in the Brexit budget cuts unless someone in the Treasury is bright enough to realise capital spending using borrowing at near negative rates is a good idea.
May 138 .. Leadsom 44 .. Gove 27 .. Crabb 25 .. Fox 8
If it finished up May 150, Leadsom 80, Gove 45, Crabb 35 and Fox 20, with Fox being dropped, Crabb would probably throw in the towel as will because he would be unlikely to pick up many from Fox.
On the Sky News numbers we still have almost 90 undeclared. Unlikely that May would only add 12.
On your figures I would expect Crabb and Gove to exit with the eliminated Fox. However I think May will be 170-190 leaving the other 4 to share 140-160.
May 138 .. Leadsom 44 .. Gove 27 .. Crabb 25 .. Fox 8
If guess Gove will drop out tonight if he's beaten by Crabb. Would he endorse Leadsom or May?
Tonight will be the first real indicator of what is going on.
There will be people pledging for someone but with no intention of voting for them
There will be people holding back a bunch of supporters to create the illusion of momentum
We could easily see Leadsom/Gove/Crabb/Fox jump up 40 votes from people that they have asked not to pledge publically but who vote for them in private, thereby creating a "story"
As you imply the declared figures may turn out to be useless since they only include about 50% of the electorate.
Are we expecting a lower turnout from younger and C2DE Tory MPs?
The problem with Heathrow is that it will take a long time to complete , say 2030 at the earliest. Gatwick is cheaper and quicker to build, ready 2025, so the benefits would accrue earlier.
Given Brexit speed is important so that factor in favour of Gatwick becomes more relevant.
LHR3 would be a statement of intent more than anything else.
Better to have a statement of intent pissing out than.... oh, hang on, something not quite right there.
For the record, I oppose HS2, LHR Runway 3 and Hinckley Point C.
Crikey - do you support any infrastructure spending?
I've been on holiday for a week, upping my carbon footprint like a good 'un. I return to find some of the Remainers have regressed to three-year-olds whose favourite toy's been taken away. Sthcream and sthcream all you like, the voters' verdict is in.
I decided it's definitely for the best, yet the original schemers in the early fifties were right in their ambitions. The only way for agricultural subsidies to be so much larger than steel subsidies is to make Wales a region of the French Super-state. Otherwise regional or national identities will cause instability. Chuck in the four Freedoms to ensure the Megacountry.
Come on Juncker, stop dallying, One parliament, one army, one Reich = prosperity.
As for Cameron, he looked emotionally detached on June 24th - I've seen colleagues like that in their last couple of weeks. They have mentally already left
In the FCO, that condition used to be called "boat happy" - they were already mentally on the boat back home ...
Yes agree with stodge, Cameron is demob happy. He will soon start to look 5 years younger.
The problem with Heathrow is that it will take a long time to complete , say 2030 at the earliest. Gatwick is cheaper and quicker to build, ready 2025, so the benefits would accrue earlier.
Given Brexit speed is important so that factor in favour of Gatwick becomes more relevant.
The Chinese would have Boris island ready before 2025..
With Bulgarian and Romanian workforce. No problem !
Has there been anything that you didn't expect post Brexit?
I The other thing that has surprised and disappointed me is Cameron's invisibility since the vote. I wasn't surprised that he resigned - but post that he should have been out and in public maintaining confidence. He's deserted his post. Distinctly unimpressive.
The Remainers will be after you for this - it's not Cameron's fault as the other side fibbed. Or something.
The problem with Heathrow is that it will take a long time to complete , say 2030 at the earliest. Gatwick is cheaper and quicker to build, ready 2025, so the benefits would accrue earlier.
Given Brexit speed is important so that factor in favour of Gatwick becomes more relevant.
The Chinese would have Boris island ready before 2025..
With Bulgarian and Romanian workforce. No problem !
May 138 .. Leadsom 44 .. Gove 27 .. Crabb 25 .. Fox 8
If guess Gove will drop out tonight if he's beaten by Crabb. Would he endorse Leadsom or May?
Tonight will be the first real indicator of what is going on.
There will be people pledging for someone but with no intention of voting for them
There will be people holding back a bunch of supporters to create the illusion of momentum
We could easily see Leadsom/Gove/Crabb/Fox jump up 40 votes from people that they have asked not to pledge publically but who vote for them in private, thereby creating a "story"
As you imply the declared figures may turn out to be useless since they only include about 50% of the electorate.
Are we expecting a lower turnout from younger and C2DE Tory MPs?
As for Cameron, he looked emotionally detached on June 24th - I've seen colleagues like that in their last couple of weeks. They have mentally already left
In the FCO, that condition used to be called "boat happy" - they were already mentally on the boat back home ...
In IBM it was known as an In-Plant Retiree. Some one who had to all intents retired, but still seemed to be occupying a seat in the office.
The problem with Heathrow is that it will take a long time to complete , say 2030 at the earliest. Gatwick is cheaper and quicker to build, ready 2025, so the benefits would accrue earlier.
Given Brexit speed is important so that factor in favour of Gatwick becomes more relevant.
The more general point being that Brexit is going to occur in geological time relative to the 24-hr news cycle and the public's attention span (and even, sadly for some, lives).
No one will notice. Most of the forecasts put our GDP lower (including per capita) at less than it would otherwise have been had we stayed in the EU. But as many on here said pre-vote, what's the difference between actual GDP growth of X vs potential GDP growth of 1.2x X to the man on the street? Not much.
Just a shame that we would otherwise have been better off. But as Leavers have also assured us, for the working people of this country, especially those less well-off, there's more to life than economic growth.
Splendid post. I'd only take issue with your last paragraph. There are plenty of people across the entire spectrum of the press examining some of the realities of life in C2DEland. I don't think all of them can be accused of making partisan points.
The average & median disposable income in this country has been flat since the mid-noughties.
May 138 .. Leadsom 44 .. Gove 27 .. Crabb 25 .. Fox 8
If guess Gove will drop out tonight if he's beaten by Crabb. Would he endorse Leadsom or May?
Tonight will be the first real indicator of what is going on.
There will be people pledging for someone but with no intention of voting for them
There will be people holding back a bunch of supporters to create the illusion of momentum
We could easily see Leadsom/Gove/Crabb/Fox jump up 40 votes from people that they have asked not to pledge publically but who vote for them in private, thereby creating a "story"
As you imply the declared figures may turn out to be useless since they only include about 50% of the electorate.
Are we expecting a lower turnout from younger and C2DE Tory MPs?
I'm expecting a Populus poll out at 1855 predicting a win for Fox
Has there been anything that you didn't expect post Brexit?
In terms of real developments - no, not really. I slightly underestimated what a prat Juncker is, but he's marginal to the whole thing anyway
What has surprised me is the government's utter incompetence. They should have had contingency plans in place and ready to roll out for a Brexit vote, and then scenario plans for how to approach different options. They clearly hadn't done any work on this whatsoever (and I learnt after the event they hadn't done any on iScot either). I'd assumed that when Cameron(?) said before the event that there weren't any contingency plans he was lying...after all no government could be that useless, could they?
The other thing that has surprised and disappointed me is Cameron's invisibility since the vote. I wasn't surprised that he resigned - but post that he should have been out and in public maintaining confidence. He's deserted his post. Distinctly unimpressive.
Can't disagree with any of that. I guess the usual suspects will be along in a mo' to tell you that Gove and Johnson should have had a plan.......
The uncomfortable truth is that the public didn't think a plan was important. Otherwise they would never have voted Leave on that prospectus. Under normal circumstances you would expect the winners to run with whatever they were promoting. Instead it will be the Remainers, probably, that will sort something out, even though they thought it was a bad idea.
May 138 .. Leadsom 44 .. Gove 27 .. Crabb 25 .. Fox 8
If it finished up May 150, Leadsom 80, Gove 45, Crabb 35 and Fox 20, with Fox being dropped, Crabb would probably throw in the towel as will because he would be unlikely to pick up many from Fox.
On the Sky News numbers we still have almost 90 undeclared. Unlikely that May would only add 12.
On your figures I would expect Crabb and Gove to exit with the eliminated Fox. However I think May will be 170-190 leaving the other 4 to share 140-160.
Yes I was not forecasting May, just looking at what point some of the others would throw in the towel.
The problem with Heathrow is that it will take a long time to complete , say 2030 at the earliest. Gatwick is cheaper and quicker to build, ready 2025, so the benefits would accrue earlier.
Given Brexit speed is important so that factor in favour of Gatwick becomes more relevant.
The more general point being that Brexit is going to occur in geological time relative to the 24-hr news cycle and the public's attention span (and even, sadly for some, lives).
No one will notice. Most of the forecasts put our GDP lower (including per capita) at less than it would otherwise have been had we stayed in the EU. But as many on here said pre-vote, what's the difference between actual GDP growth of X vs potential GDP growth of 1.2x X to the man on the street? Not much.
Just a shame that we would otherwise have been better off. But as Leavers have also assured us, for the working people of this country, especially those less well-off, there's more to life than economic growth.
Splendid post. I'd only take issue with your last paragraph. There are plenty of people across the entire spectrum of the press examining some of the realities of life in C2DEland. I don't think all of them can be accused of making partisan points.
The average & median disposable income in this country has been flat since the mid-noughties.
May 138 .. Leadsom 44 .. Gove 27 .. Crabb 25 .. Fox 8
If guess Gove will drop out tonight if he's beaten by Crabb. Would he endorse Leadsom or May?
Brutus has said the PM must be a Brexiteer. So Gove will endorse Leadsom until a few minutes before the Thursday voting and then back May as a matter of principle having struggled overnight with the decision.
Or, he might stab himself in the back, as he's run out of other people.
Brutus needs to watch out for the nice men in the white coats.
Has there been anything that you didn't expect post Brexit?
In terms of real developments - no, not really. I slightly underestimated what a prat Juncker is, but he's marginal to the whole thing anyway
What has surprised me is the government's utter incompetence. They should have had contingency plans in place and ready to roll out for a Brexit vote, and then scenario plans for how to approach different options. They clearly hadn't done any work on this whatsoever (and I learnt after the event they hadn't done any on iScot either). I'd assumed that when Cameron(?) said before the event that there weren't any contingency plans he was lying...after all no government could be that useless, could they?
The other thing that has surprised and disappointed me is Cameron's invisibility since the vote. I wasn't surprised that he resigned - but post that he should have been out and in public maintaining confidence. He's deserted his post. Distinctly unimpressive.
Can't disagree with any of that. I guess the usual suspects will be along in a mo' to tell you that Gove and Johnson should have had a plan.......
The uncomfortable truth is that the public didn't think a plan was important. Otherwise they would never have voted Leave on that prospectus. Under normal circumstances you would expect the winners to run with whatever they were promoting. Instead it will be the Remainers, probably, that will sort something out, even though they thought it was a bad idea.
I respectfully disagree. I expect the government, to well, err, govern. That has to include to prepare for any scenario- particularly one that involves giving the country a binary choice, that was known about well in advance. I fully agree that the Brexit politicians share the blame, but that doesn't mean that Cameron et al, can just shrug their shoulders and say they don't want to play anymore.
The problem with Heathrow is that it will take a long time to complete , say 2030 at the earliest. Gatwick is cheaper and quicker to build, ready 2025, so the benefits would accrue earlier.
Given Brexit speed is important so that factor in favour of Gatwick becomes more relevant.
The more general point being that Brexit is going to occur in geological time relative to the 24-hr news cycle and the public's attention span (and even, sadly for some, lives).
No one will notice. Most of the forecasts put our GDP lower (including per capita) at less than it would otherwise have been had we stayed in the EU. But as many on here said pre-vote, what's the difference between actual GDP growth of X vs potential GDP growth of 1.2x X to the man on the street? Not much.
Just a shame that we would otherwise have been better off. But as Leavers have also assured us, for the working people of this country, especially those less well-off, there's more to life than economic growth.
Splendid post. I'd only take issue with your last paragraph. There are plenty of people across the entire spectrum of the press examining some of the realities of life in C2DEland. I don't think all of them can be accused of making partisan points.
The average & median disposable income in this country has been flat since the mid-noughties.
I agree with that. There was an arrogance about the Remain camp. We know what what is good for you, when actually it wasn't good for a lot of people.
Has there been anything that you didn't expect post Brexit?
In terms of real developments - no, not really. I slightly underestimated what a prat Juncker is, but he's marginal to the whole thing anyway
What has surprised me is the government's utter incompetence. They should have had contingency plans in place and ready to roll out for a Brexit vote, and then scenario plans for how to approach different options. They clearly hadn't done any work on this whatsoever (and I learnt after the event they hadn't done any on iScot either). I'd assumed that when Cameron(?) said before the event that there weren't any contingency plans he was lying...after all no government could be that useless, could they?
The other thing that has surprised and disappointed me is Cameron's invisibility since the vote. I wasn't surprised that he resigned - but post that he should have been out and in public maintaining confidence. He's deserted his post. Distinctly unimpressive.
Can't disagree with any of that. I guess the usual suspects will be along in a mo' to tell you that Gove and Johnson should have had a plan.......
The uncomfortable truth is that the public didn't think a plan was important. Otherwise they would never have voted Leave on that prospectus. Under normal circumstances you would expect the winners to run with whatever they were promoting. Instead it will be the Remainers, probably, that will sort something out, even though they thought it was a bad idea.
I respectfully disagree. I expect the government, to well, err, govern. That has to include to prepare for any scenario- particularly one that involves giving the country a binary choice, that was known about well in advance. I fully agree that the Brexit politicians share the blame, but that doesn't mean that Cameron et al, can just shrug their shoulders and say they don't want to play anymore.
In my brief but glorious Civil Service career, I was seconded to look at critical national infrastructure (CNI) from an Infosec perspective. We had contingency plans coming out of the wazoo, covering some extremely unlikely scenarios. It was just something that happened.
I'll echo Charles here. I thought the 'no plan B' was more sabre rattling and, if you will, a negotiating tactic. I didn't appreciate my government was actually serious.
"Put simply, there is no group in British politics offering a way forward that is both politically deliverable at a European level and not economically ruinous for Britain. That is too horrible to contemplate, let alone discuss with the electorate, so the focus, instead, is on the old internal battles: the left and the right of the Labour Party, the “anyone but Boris” caucus in the Conservative parliamentary party."
That is Stephen Bush, not John Gray, and he still seems to be in his pre-referendum silo, spouting end-of-the-world claims which may or may not be true.
Brexit seems to be all a drip drip drip of lies and propaganda swallowed by stupid people outside the metropolis bubble, conned into voting as they did by 20 years of the Sun and the Mail.
The full-fat Brexit option is one that promises an end to the uncontrolled immigration of the single market. That would result in, among other things, the demise of the City of London as a global financial centre, the reappearance of a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic and less easy holidays on the continent for British tourists.
The marginalisation of England’s poorest and the obsession with the Westminster game were the forces that powered the vote for Brexit. That triumph has sent the pound plummeting, forced the resignation of the Prime Minister and thrown Labour into crisis. It has emboldened the far right across Europe and has been followed by a series of attacks on Britain’s ethnic minorities. It may yet presage the break-up of the United Kingdom and unravel peace in Northern Ireland. The fruits of ignoring its consequences in favour of the parliamentary game may be bitterer still.
That man needs to engage with the world outside, rather than his mirrored certainty bubble.
Mr. Stopper, agree with you and Mr. Charles entirely. The seeming lack of basic contingency planning is rancidly incompetent by Cameron and Osborne. The EU vote wasn't a black swan, it was in the diary for months, and the polls were tight for months.
One other situation should not be entirely discounted.
Theresa May becomes Prime Minister by Thursday or shortly after - First round region off :
May 210 .. Leadsome 50 .. Gove 30 .. Crabb 30 .. Fox 10
May become PM by acclamation.
I'm wondering if this contest will be over very quickly. I think there will be a second ballot though. I would like the historic irony of May getting 204
Hasn't the Bank Of England wanted a weaker Sterling for some time? Might a weaker pound help with regard to the global imbalances? Though not if it strengthens the dollar of course.
Has there been anything that you didn't expect post Brexit?
In terms of real developments - no, not really. I slightly underestimated what a prat Juncker is, but he's marginal to the whole thing anyway
What has surprised me is the government's utter incompetence. They should have had contingency plans in place and ready to roll out for a Brexit vote, and then scenario plans for how to approach different options. They clearly hadn't done any work on this whatsoever (and I learnt after the event they hadn't done any on iScot either). I'd assumed that when Cameron(?) said before the event that there weren't any contingency plans he was lying...after all no government could be that useless, could they?
The other thing that has surprised and disappointed me is Cameron's invisibility since the vote. I wasn't surprised that he resigned - but post that he should have been out and in public maintaining confidence. He's deserted his post. Distinctly unimpressive.
Can't disagree with any of that. I guess the usual suspects will be along in a mo' to tell you that Gove and Johnson should have had a plan.......
The uncomfortable truth is that the public didn't think a plan was important. Otherwise they would never have voted Leave on that prospectus. Under normal circumstances you would expect the winners to run with whatever they were promoting. Instead it will be the Remainers, probably, that will sort something out, even though they thought it was a bad idea.
I respectfully disagree. I expect the government, to well, err, govern. That has to include to prepare for any scenario- particularly one that involves giving the country a binary choice, that was known about well in advance. I fully agree that the Brexit politicians share the blame, but that doesn't mean that Cameron et al, can just shrug their shoulders and say they don't want to play anymore.
In my brief but glorious Civil Service career, I was seconded to look at critical national infrastructure (CNI) from an Infosec perspective. We had contingency plans coming out of the Wazoo, covering some extremely unlikely scenarios. It was just something that happened.
I'll echo Charles here. I thought the 'no plan B' was more sabre rattling and, if you will, a negotiating tactic. I didn't appreciate my government was actually serioustotally and utterly completely incompetent.
Has there been anything that you didn't expect post Brexit?
In terms of real developments - no, not really. I slightly underestimated what a prat Juncker is, but he's marginal to the whole thing anyway
What has surprised me is the government's utter incompetence. They should have had contingency plans in place and ready to roll out for a Brexit vote, and then scenario plans for how to approach different options. They clearly hadn't done any work on this whatsoever (and I learnt after the event they hadn't done any on iScot either). I'd assumed that when Cameron(?) said before the event that there weren't any contingency plans he was lying...after all no government could be that useless, could they?
The other thing that has surprised and disappointed me is Cameron's invisibility since the vote. I wasn't surprised that he resigned - but post that he should have been out and in public maintaining confidence. He's deserted his post. Distinctly unimpressive.
Can't disagree with any of that. I guess the usual suspects will be along in a mo' to tell you that Gove and Johnson should have had a plan.......
The uncomfortable truth is that the public didn't think a plan was important. Otherwise they would never have voted Leave on that prospectus. Under normal circumstances you would expect the winners to run with whatever they were promoting. Instead it will be the Remainers, probably, that will sort something out, even though they thought it was a bad idea.
I respectfully disagree. I expect the government, to well, err, govern. That has to include to prepare for any scenario- particularly one that involves giving the country a binary choice, that was known about well in advance. I fully agree that the Brexit politicians share the blame, but that doesn't mean that Cameron et al, can just shrug their shoulders and say they don't want to play anymore.
What more could Cameron have done, though? He could have involved Article 50, I guess. But that would have been hugely controversial and probably entirely counter-productive. Clearly the BoE had a Brexit strategy in place, so that planning had been done.
Cameron got us into this mess because he was scared of some right wing Tory MPs. He also spent six years bad mouthing the EU and talking tough on immigration. That came back to bite him on the bum very hard indeed. But having lost the argument he has done the right thing and stood down. There is no way on earth that the country would have allowed him to negotiate a Brexit deal. And Dave is not Jeremy Corbyn. He understands how these things work.
Comments
Always had a lot of time for Ken.. He must be struggling on his own, awfully difficult... must be nearly a year now.
However, even though modern economies are extremely complex and interlinked, a good chunk of the populace are engaged in wholly domestic trade. Cutting each other's hair. Selling each other insurance and so on.
What we needed was a good run in the footy. What we need now is a gloriously sunny July/August. We need people to spend money. But only money they actually have in their pockets. No credit
The one thing I notice as I visit Florence on an annual basis is the slow increase in street vendors and others of African descent... So I do wonder if that zero growth is actually a falling GDP per person....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=18JmieM8SFc
From the Speccy's article, its difficult to envisage when the Italian economy will come to terms with the currency it uses.
twentythirty years. The man is allowed to look a bit of a mess if he wants, many would have given up.Rifkind hasn't been in government in ten years, by comparison.
Bio says he was born in 1940 so he's pretty much entitled to.
One of the great unknowns is the behaviour of the transient worker population in the UK if the economic climate alters.
Millions of people currently residing in the UK call somewhere else Home.
In my view the whole thing is retrograde, but the result is clear and the ship has sailed. There is no need to drag her down as well.
May 138 .. Leadsom 44 .. Gove 27 .. Crabb 25 .. Fox 8
We should start "Boris" Airport Island once the new PM is in place.
Consolation prize for Boris, and shows that Britain is really open for business.
@williamglenn
Has there been anything that you didn't expect post Brexit?
In terms of real developments - no, not really. I slightly underestimated what a prat Juncker is, but he's marginal to the whole thing anyway
What has surprised me is the government's utter incompetence. They should have had contingency plans in place and ready to roll out for a Brexit vote, and then scenario plans for how to approach different options. They clearly hadn't done any work on this whatsoever (and I learnt after the event they hadn't done any on iScot either). I'd assumed that when Cameron(?) said before the event that there weren't any contingency plans he was lying...after all no government could be that useless, could they?
The other thing that has surprised and disappointed me is Cameron's invisibility since the vote. I wasn't surprised that he resigned - but post that he should have been out and in public maintaining confidence. He's deserted his post. Distinctly unimpressive.
There will be people pledging for someone but with no intention of voting for them
There will be people holding back a bunch of supporters to create the illusion of momentum
We could easily see Leadsom/Gove/Crabb/Fox jump up 40 votes from people that they have asked not to pledge publically but who vote for them in private, thereby creating a "story"
Would cement Brexit and the Uk at a stroke.
Gove - Chancellor/Minister for Brexit
Boris - DPM
They let Andrea "front" the government for the next 2-3 years, then towards the end of 2019 when all the unpopular Brexit stuff is done, they pull the plug on her leaving Boris as leader for 2020...
If Andrea does become leader she should watch that pair like a hawk...
#WhatAWickedWebWeWeave
Given Brexit speed is important so that factor in favour of Gatwick becomes more relevant.
If local Councils, which usually get pilloried for not being prepared, are prepared, why isn't central Government ? We can't rely on Carney being wheeled out every day with another few billion of financial methadone to keep the markets running.
As for Cameron, he looked emotionally detached on June 24th - I've seen colleagues like that in their last couple of weeks. They have mentally already left - to be fair Cameron follows an honourable tradition of neutrality in the contest to find his successor (which of course Thatcher and Howard didn't).
For the record, I oppose HS2, LHR Runway 3 and Hinckley Point C.
Anyone with Amazon Prime is missing a treat if they've not watched it.
8.3/10 http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1699748/
Investment decision cancelled here, continuing negotiations, opportunity cost incurred over there.
No one will notice. Most of the forecasts put our GDP lower (including per capita) at less than it would otherwise have been had we stayed in the EU. But as many on here said pre-vote, what's the difference between actual GDP growth of X vs potential GDP growth of 1.2x X to the man on the street? Not much.
Just a shame that we would otherwise have been better off. But as Leavers have also assured us, for the working people of this country, especially those less well-off, there's more to life than economic growth.
"Put simply, there is no group in British politics offering a way forward that is both politically deliverable at a European level and not economically ruinous for Britain. That is too horrible to contemplate, let alone discuss with the electorate, so the focus, instead, is on the old internal battles: the left and the right of the Labour Party, the “anyone but Boris” caucus in the Conservative parliamentary party."
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/07/westminster-has-yet-come-terms-consequences-brexit
On your figures I would expect Crabb and Gove to exit with the eliminated Fox. However I think May will be 170-190 leaving the other 4 to share 140-160.
"Fuck all the eco shit, now."
Can't we make aviation fuel out of Green voters?
I've been on holiday for a week, upping my carbon footprint like a good 'un. I return to find some of the Remainers have regressed to three-year-olds whose favourite toy's been taken away. Sthcream and sthcream all you like, the voters' verdict is in.
I decided it's definitely for the best, yet the original schemers in the early fifties were right in their ambitions. The only way for agricultural subsidies to be so much larger than steel subsidies is to make Wales a region of the French Super-state. Otherwise regional or national identities will cause instability. Chuck in the four Freedoms to ensure the Megacountry.
Come on Juncker, stop dallying, One parliament, one army, one Reich = prosperity.
Which Tory leadership candidate are you?
http://thetab.com/uk/2016/07/04/tory-leadership-candidate-6165
The average & median disposable income in this country has been flat since the mid-noughties.
#bregret
#bridiot
"In IBM it was known as an In-Plant Retiree"
Or RIP for Retired In Post.
How far do you think Mark Carney wants to talk it down?
Theresa May becomes Prime Minister by Thursday or shortly after - First round region of :
May 210 .. Leadsome 50 .. Gove 30 .. Crabb 30 .. Fox 10
May become PM by acclamation.
I'll echo Charles here. I thought the 'no plan B' was more sabre rattling and, if you will, a negotiating tactic. I didn't appreciate my government was actually serious.
Brexit seems to be all a drip drip drip of lies and propaganda swallowed by stupid people outside the metropolis bubble, conned into voting as they did by 20 years of the Sun and the Mail.
The full-fat Brexit option is one that promises an end to the uncontrolled immigration of the single market. That would result in, among other things, the demise of the City of London as a global financial centre, the reappearance of a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic and less easy holidays on the continent for British tourists.
The marginalisation of England’s poorest and the obsession with the Westminster game were the forces that powered the vote for Brexit. That triumph has sent the pound plummeting, forced the resignation of the Prime Minister and thrown Labour into crisis. It has emboldened the far right across Europe and has been followed by a series of attacks on Britain’s ethnic minorities. It may yet presage the break-up of the United Kingdom and unravel peace in Northern Ireland. The fruits of ignoring its consequences in favour of the parliamentary game may be bitterer still.
That man needs to engage with the world outside, rather than his mirrored certainty bubble.
http://reaction.life/was-andrea-leadsom-really-such-a-city-hotshot/
Was Andrea Leadsom really such a City hotshot?
http://reaction.life/was-andrea-leadsom-really-such-a-city-hotshot/
Cameron got us into this mess because he was scared of some right wing Tory MPs. He also spent six years bad mouthing the EU and talking tough on immigration. That came back to bite him on the bum very hard indeed. But having lost the argument he has done the right thing and stood down. There is no way on earth that the country would have allowed him to negotiate a Brexit deal. And Dave is not Jeremy Corbyn. He understands how these things work.