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TheScreamingEagles

Ken is awesome, as always.

tlg86

Utterly boring.

DearPB

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ken is awesome, as always.

You'd definitely go to the pub with him

DearPB

Rifkind almost looks like he's goading him into saying interesting things!

MarqueeMark

Fox on a still troubling zero percent chance....

TheWhiteRabbit

tlg86 said:

Utterly boring.

Like most people, when drunk I say things which are true, but which, on balance, I shouldn't have said. Clarke & Rifkind have - at worst - done that. They are quite reasonable opinions.

TheScreamingEagles

The comparison with Thatcher will help May with the members even more.

SimonStClare

Arf, not a penny backing Fox - heart of stone etc...

TheWhiteRabbit

MarqueeMark said:

Fox on a still troubling zero percent chance....

I mistook you with Bev_C there for a moment (I think I have that right).

Pulpstar

Despite the fact that I think making EU citizens pawnswas a poor mis-step by May - we could probably do with a "bloody difficult" woman leading EU exit negotiations rather than "full asking price" Dave in there.

eek

DearPB said:

Rifkind almost looks like he's goading him into saying interesting things!

They've known each other for 40 odd years. Would you expect anything different...

MarqueeMark

Ken is a Forest-supporting twitcher. If only he had mellowed his views on the EU some, he would have been the most awesome Prime Minister. Still.....

rcs1000

FPT:

MTimT said:

For those of you looking for some more reasoned analysis of the economic fallout of Brexit - and indeed the motivations behind Brexit - I highly recommend this piece.

http://thesovereigninvestor.com/exclusives/u-s-betrayed-real-reason-britain-left-european-union/?z=523876

Warning - do not drink coffee while reading. You may ruin your computer. I particularly liked the idea that gold will reach $10,000 an ounce

Who is the "rogue economist"? And why can't he be named in the article?

BTW: whatever happened to the sovereign debt crisis that was due to kick off in September 2015? The Elliott Waves were so clear...

TheScreamingEagles

SimonStClare said:

Arf, not a penny backing Fox - heart of stone etc...

Money has been matched.

Most of us have been laying the Fantasic Mr Fox

MattW

FPT: EU Trade Deals

@Morris_Dancer

>Mr. Observer, weren't free trade deals the business of the EU, not the UK?

Trade deals don't seem to be a huge issue, really. The EU conducts about two thirds of external trade without them.

There are no EU Trade Deals with 6 of the top ten trading partners, for example.

Currently the top 10 trading partners of the EU are:

1 - USA
2 - China
3 - Russia
4 - Switzerland
5 - Norway
6 - Turkey
7 - Japan
8 - South Korea
9 - India
10 - Brazil

The EU does not have established Trade Agreements with more than half of our top 10 :

USA
China
Russia
Japan
India
Brazil

Just these 6 countries alone represent about 50% of all EU Export/Import trade (1.6 trillion out of 3.4 trillion, presumably in Euro), which is happening just fine without any established trade agreements in place whatsoever. That they have not happened has much to do with sclerotic EU procedure.

The "omigod the economy will collapse without Trade Agreements with everyone tomorrow" is a huge Red Herring, a fisherman's tale.
They are trying to negotiate more, but I think we will get there first for many.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_partners_of_the_European_Union
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union_free_trade_agreements#Free_trade_agreements_in_force

Indigo

rcs1000 said:

MTimT said:

For those of you looking for some more reasoned analysis of the economic fallout of Brexit - and indeed the motivations behind Brexit - I highly recommend this piece.

http://thesovereigninvestor.com/exclusives/u-s-betrayed-real-reason-britain-left-european-union/?z=523876

Warning - do not drink coffee while reading. You may ruin your computer. I particularly liked the idea that gold will reach $10,000 an ounce

Who is the "rogue economist"? And why can't he be named in the article?

BTW: whatever happened to the sovereign debt crisis that was due to kick off in September 2015? The Elliott Waves were so clear...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Dale_Davidson

MonikerDiCanio

May must be in trouble if she's reduced to a transparent hoax like this to give her credibility. Insulting stuff.

MarqueeMark

TheWhiteRabbit said:

MarqueeMark said:

Fox on a still troubling zero percent chance....

I mistook you with Bev_C there for a moment (I think I have that right).

I think that avatar MAY have run its course....

MaxPB

Leadsom might be in trouble if she has the backing of Ken. Methinks he knew the cameras were rolling.

Jobabob

SeanT said:

eek said:

DearPB said:

Rifkind almost looks like he's goading him into saying interesting things!

They've known each other for 40 odd years. Would you expect anything different...

Which is why the dialogue doesn't ring quite true.

e.g. Ken says "you and I both worked for Margaret Thatcher". If this was really a genuine, impromptu, private conversation, between two very old political pals, he would surely say "you and I both worked for Margaret".

It would be clear what he meant. Why provide the surname? Very stilted.

Ken knew the mic was on and he knew this would be broadcast.

They don't make 'em like they used to. Several million strata of expertise above today's amateurs.

MaxPB

Pulpstar said:

Despite the fact that I think making EU citizens pawnswas a poor mis-step by May - we could probably do with a "bloody difficult" woman leading EU exit negotiations rather than "full asking price" Dave in there.

We need an EU wide agreement foe reciprocal residency rights until we resolve the long term issue of Brexit. With the Spanish PM saying Brits in Spain weren't guaranteed rights to live there this is the correct reaction, anything less would be a unilateral disarmament.

SimonStClare

MaxPB said:

Leadsom might be in trouble if she has the backing of Ken. Methinks he knew the cameras were rolling.

Really can’t see how Ken’s words effects May’s chances, bloody difficult, beats wet lettuce in negotiations every time. But deliberate? not so sure, old people so really odd stuff at time

John_M

FPT @DaemonBarber Enjoyed the essay. Inspired by that:

I might very well be wrong on Brexit. We may achieve all the downsides and none of the upsides. That would be an extremely poor outcome for the country.

I'm with a number of the middling Brexiteers on here who want to move to an EEA-like solution (and be flagging that to the markets asap). Some of us see that as a transitional arrangement, others that it's a permanent home. It doesn't really matter at this point.

Unfortunately, it's not going to become clear on whether I was wrong for some considerable time yet. We're just twelve days post-referendum. The shock and awe is still rolling across the economy. Even overseas a lot of the papers still have Brexit for breakfast, lunch and tea.

Basically, we need Brexit to move to page two (not here, it'll be news for a while), and for us to get our new administration rolling.

rcs1000

Indigo said:

rcs1000 said:

MTimT said:

For those of you looking for some more reasoned analysis of the economic fallout of Brexit - and indeed the motivations behind Brexit - I highly recommend this piece.

http://thesovereigninvestor.com/exclusives/u-s-betrayed-real-reason-britain-left-european-union/?z=523876

Warning - do not drink coffee while reading. You may ruin your computer. I particularly liked the idea that gold will reach $10,000 an ounce

Who is the "rogue economist"? And why can't he be named in the article?

BTW: whatever happened to the sovereign debt crisis that was due to kick off in September 2015? The Elliott Waves were so clear...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Dale_Davidson

Oh, I read The Great Reckoning, which he wrote with Mogg Senior.

It's an entertaining read. Among the forecasts I most remember:

- our cities being hollowed out as people choose instead to live in the countryside
- Japan overtaking the USA as the world's largest economy
- the coming "Slump of the 1990s"
- the fall of Communism and the rise of Islam

Well, one out of four ain't bad...

I have a copy at work - I'll see if I can dig it out.

TwistedFireStopper

SeanT said:

eek said:

DearPB said:

Rifkind almost looks like he's goading him into saying interesting things!

They've known each other for 40 odd years. Would you expect anything different...

Which is why the dialogue doesn't ring quite true.

e.g. Ken says "you and I both worked for Margaret Thatcher". If this was really a genuine, impromptu, private conversation, between two very old political pals, he would surely say "you and I both worked for Margaret".

It would be clear what he meant. Why provide the surname? Very stilted.

Ken knew the mic was on and he knew this would be broadcast.

He must have done. He's been around the block a few times, and he was sitting in a Sky News studio and totally unaware or the surrounding cameras, microphones and journalists? Pull the other one!

rcs1000

MattW said:

FPT: EU Trade Deals

@Morris_Dancer

>Mr. Observer, weren't free trade deals the business of the EU, not the UK?

Trade deals don't seem to be a huge issue, really. The EU conducts about two thirds of external trade without them.

There are no EU Trade Deals with 6 of the top ten trading partners, for example.

Currently the top 10 trading partners of the EU are:

1 - USA
2 - China
3 - Russia
4 - Switzerland
5 - Norway
6 - Turkey
7 - Japan
8 - South Korea
9 - India
10 - Brazil

The EU does not have established Trade Agreements with more than half of our top 10 :

USA
China
Russia
Japan
India
Brazil

Just these 6 countries alone represent about 50% of all EU Export/Import trade (1.6 trillion out of 3.4 trillion, presumably in Euro), which is happening just fine without any established trade agreements in place whatsoever. That they have not happened has much to do with sclerotic EU procedure.

The "omigod the economy will collapse without Trade Agreements with everyone tomorrow" is a huge Red Herring, a fisherman's tale.
They are trying to negotiate more, but I think we will get there first for many.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_partners_of_the_European_Union
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union_free_trade_agreements#Free_trade_agreements_in_force

It's not actually true to say there are no trade agreements between the US and the EU, there is just no 'jumbo' Free Trade Agreement. (Although TTIP would be that in theory.) The US has signed a number of treaties (both bilateral and multilateral) which contain specific provisions about EU trade.

Edit to add: that exaggerates the importance of Russia, because it includes imports of natural resources (oil, gas, coal). If you look at Russia's total imports (from around the world, not just from the EU), it's about the same size as Belgium.

Danny565

TheScreamingEagles said:

The comparison with Thatcher will help May with the members even more.

Tory members really do like the feeling of a spanking from a nanny-type figure, don't they?

DearPB

Danny565 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The comparison with Thatcher will help May with the members even more.

Tory members really do like the feeling of a spanking from a nanny-type figure, don't they?

Errr... not this one

TheScreamingEagles

Danny565 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The comparison with Thatcher will help May with the members even more.

Tory members really do like the feeling of a spanking from a nanny-type figure, don't they?

Well who doesn't ?

MaxPB

Danny565 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The comparison with Thatcher will help May with the members even more.

Tory members really do like the feeling of a spanking from a nanny-type figure, don't they?

It wouldn't be the Tory party otherwise.

williamglenn

FPT

Charles said:

Jobabob said:

an uneasy coalition of bitter wealth-hating failures, xenophobic myopic Little Englanders and rabid rightwing nutjobs

You seen very interested in questions and answers:

How would you classify

@rcs1000
@Charles
@MaxPB

On your scale?

Has anything happened since the vote that you didn't expect? Do you think that people like you and the above are in control of events?

FF43

John_M said:

FPT @DaemonBarber Enjoyed the essay. Inspired by that:

I might very well be wrong on Brexit. We may achieve all the downsides and none of the upsides. That would be an extremely poor outcome for the country.

I'm with a number of the middling Brexiteers on here who want to move to an EEA-like solution (and be flagging that to the markets asap). Some of us see that as a transitional arrangement, others that it's a permanent home. It doesn't really matter at this point.

Unfortunately, it's not going to become clear on whether I was wrong for some considerable time yet. We're just twelve days post-referendum. The shock and awe is still rolling across the economy. Even overseas a lot of the papers still have Brexit for breakfast, lunch and tea.

Basically, we need Brexit to move to page two (not here, it'll be news for a while), and for us to get our new administration rolling.

The process of Brexit will take a good ten years as we move from a rules based system to a painfully negotiated set of reciprocal deals. There will be a huge number of contracts that have been entered into on a set of legal or regulatory principles that will no longer apply and a further slew that will be delayed or abandoned entirely until the new order takes place. This won't be sorted in weeks or months.

MattW

rcs1000 said:

MattW said:

FPT: EU Trade Deals

@Morris_Dancer

>Mr. Observer, weren't free trade deals the business of the EU, not the UK?

Trade deals don't seem to be a huge issue, really. The EU conducts about two thirds of external trade without them.

There are no EU Trade Deals with 6 of the top ten trading partners, for example.

Currently the top 10 trading partners of the EU are:

1 - USA
2 - China
3 - Russia
4 - Switzerland
5 - Norway
6 - Turkey
7 - Japan
8 - South Korea
9 - India
10 - Brazil

The EU does not have established Trade Agreements with more than half of our top 10 :

USA
China
Russia
Japan
India
Brazil

Just these 6 countries alone represent about 50% of all EU Export/Import trade (1.6 trillion out of 3.4 trillion, presumably in Euro), which is happening just fine without any established trade agreements in place whatsoever. That they have not happened has much to do with sclerotic EU procedure.

The "omigod the economy will collapse without Trade Agreements with everyone tomorrow" is a huge Red Herring, a fisherman's tale.
They are trying to negotiate more, but I think we will get there first for many.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_partners_of_the_European_Union
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union_free_trade_agreements#Free_trade_agreements_in_force

It's not actually true to say there are no trade agreements between the US and the EU, there is just no 'jumbo' Free Trade Agreement. (Although TTIP would be that in theory.) The US has signed a number of treaties (both bilateral and multilateral) which contain specific provisions about EU trade.

Edit to add: that exaggerates the importance of Russia, because it includes imports of natural resources (oil, gas, coal). If you look at Russia's total imports (from around the world, not just from the EU), it's about the same size as Belgium.

Fair comment, but I think the basic point stands.

ToryJim

Danny565 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The comparison with Thatcher will help May with the members even more.

Tory members really do like the feeling of a spanking from a nanny-type figure, don't they?

Tory members do like their women to be part nanny part dominatrix

TGOHF

MonikerDiCanio said:

May must be in trouble if she's reduced to a transparent hoax like this to give her credibility. Insulting stuff.

"May is so tough even Ken Clark thinks she's right wing/euro sceptic.."

lol.

SandyRentool

MarqueeMark said:

Ken is a Forest-supporting twitcher. If only he had mellowed his views on the EU some, he would have been the most awesome Prime Minister. Still.....

A birder, not a twitcher!

Scrapheap_as_was

Ken Clarke. One of the best. Many tories hate him, but not me.

TheWhiteRabbit

Hooray Liam Fox moves onto 0%

MonikerDiCanio

TGOHF said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

May must be in trouble if she's reduced to a transparent hoax like this to give her credibility. Insulting stuff.

"May is so tough even Ken Clark thinks she's right wing/euro sceptic.."

lol.

Theresa May, you're no Margaret Thatcher.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=uWXRNySMW4s

DaemonBarber

When are we expecting the results for round 1?

John_M

FF43 said:

John_M said:

FPT @DaemonBarber Enjoyed the essay. Inspired by that:

I might very well be wrong on Brexit. We may achieve all the downsides and none of the upsides. That would be an extremely poor outcome for the country.

I'm with a number of the middling Brexiteers on here who want to move to an EEA-like solution (and be flagging that to the markets asap). Some of us see that as a transitional arrangement, others that it's a permanent home. It doesn't really matter at this point.

Unfortunately, it's not going to become clear on whether I was wrong for some considerable time yet. We're just twelve days post-referendum. The shock and awe is still rolling across the economy. Even overseas a lot of the papers still have Brexit for breakfast, lunch and tea.

Basically, we need Brexit to move to page two (not here, it'll be news for a while), and for us to get our new administration rolling.

The process of Brexit will take a good ten years as we move from a rules based system to a painfully negotiated set of reciprocal deals. There will be a huge number of contracts that have been entered into on a set of legal or regulatory principles that will no longer apply and a further slew that will be delayed or abandoned entirely until the new order takes place. This won't be sorted in weeks or months.

I think a decade is a reasonable guess.

eek

rcs1000 said:

Indigo said:

rcs1000 said:

MTimT said:

For those of you looking for some more reasoned analysis of the economic fallout of Brexit - and indeed the motivations behind Brexit - I highly recommend this piece.

http://thesovereigninvestor.com/exclusives/u-s-betrayed-real-reason-britain-left-european-union/?z=523876

Warning - do not drink coffee while reading. You may ruin your computer. I particularly liked the idea that gold will reach $10,000 an ounce

Who is the "rogue economist"? And why can't he be named in the article?

BTW: whatever happened to the sovereign debt crisis that was due to kick off in September 2015? The Elliott Waves were so clear...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Dale_Davidson

Oh, I read The Great Reckoning, which he wrote with Mogg Senior.

It's an entertaining read. Among the forecasts I most remember:

- our cities being hollowed out as people choose instead to live in the countryside
- Japan overtaking the USA as the world's largest economy
- the coming "Slump of the 1990s"
- the fall of Communism and the rise of Islam

Well, one out of four ain't bad...

I have a copy at work - I'll see if I can dig it out.

Japan overtaking the USA was a common viewpoint in the late 80's. It worked as an argument if you didn't look at demographics....

Likewise Communism (would give them a point for the rise of Islam though).

SandyRentool

ToryJim said:

Danny565 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The comparison with Thatcher will help May with the members even more.

Tory members really do like the feeling of a spanking from a nanny-type figure, don't they?

Tory members do like their women to be part nanny part dominatrix

Leadsom/Patel joint ticket?

MaxPB

williamglenn said:

FPT

Charles said:

Jobabob said:

an uneasy coalition of bitter wealth-hating failures, xenophobic myopic Little Englanders and rabid rightwing nutjobs

You seen very interested in questions and answers:

How would you classify

@rcs1000
@Charles
@MaxPB

On your scale?

Has anything happened since the vote that you didn't expect? Do you think that people like you and the above are in control of events?

Not really. It's all about where I expected so far. I think once May becomes PM then Sterling will stabilise and we'll see a gradual recovery once her position is laid out.

eek

SeanT said:

Eek

You called?

SimonStClare

DaemonBarber said:

When are we expecting the results for round 1?

Counting finishes at 6pm - result announced at 7pm.

Indigo

FF43 said:

John_M said:

FPT @DaemonBarber Enjoyed the essay. Inspired by that:

I might very well be wrong on Brexit. We may achieve all the downsides and none of the upsides. That would be an extremely poor outcome for the country.

I'm with a number of the middling Brexiteers on here who want to move to an EEA-like solution (and be flagging that to the markets asap). Some of us see that as a transitional arrangement, others that it's a permanent home. It doesn't really matter at this point.

Unfortunately, it's not going to become clear on whether I was wrong for some considerable time yet. We're just twelve days post-referendum. The shock and awe is still rolling across the economy. Even overseas a lot of the papers still have Brexit for breakfast, lunch and tea.

Basically, we need Brexit to move to page two (not here, it'll be news for a while), and for us to get our new administration rolling.

The process of Brexit will take a good ten years as we move from a rules based system to a painfully negotiated set of reciprocal deals. There will be a huge number of contracts that have been entered into on a set of legal or regulatory principles that will no longer apply and a further slew that will be delayed or abandoned entirely until the new order takes place. This won't be sorted in weeks or months.

In the meantime we will also pick up an FTA with New Zealand, Australia, Canada, possibly India and several other smaller commonwealth nations, which in all likelihood we will have none of under the EU in five years time.

TGOHF

DaemonBarber said:

When are we expecting the results for round 1?

6pm close, 7pm result unless everyone votes early.

Round two on Thursday after Corbyn week his rewenge tomorrow.

JonathanD

williamglenn said:

FPT

Charles said:

Jobabob said:

an uneasy coalition of bitter wealth-hating failures, xenophobic myopic Little Englanders and rabid rightwing nutjobs

You seen very interested in questions and answers:

How would you classify

@rcs1000
@Charles
@MaxPB

On your scale?

Has anything happened since the vote that you didn't expect? Do you think that people like you and the above are in control of events?

The polezniye duraki.

rcs1000

Indigo said:

FF43 said:

John_M said:

FPT @DaemonBarber Enjoyed the essay. Inspired by that:

I might very well be wrong on Brexit. We may achieve all the downsides and none of the upsides. That would be an extremely poor outcome for the country.

I'm with a number of the middling Brexiteers on here who want to move to an EEA-like solution (and be flagging that to the markets asap). Some of us see that as a transitional arrangement, others that it's a permanent home. It doesn't really matter at this point.

Unfortunately, it's not going to become clear on whether I was wrong for some considerable time yet. We're just twelve days post-referendum. The shock and awe is still rolling across the economy. Even overseas a lot of the papers still have Brexit for breakfast, lunch and tea.

Basically, we need Brexit to move to page two (not here, it'll be news for a while), and for us to get our new administration rolling.

The process of Brexit will take a good ten years as we move from a rules based system to a painfully negotiated set of reciprocal deals. There will be a huge number of contracts that have been entered into on a set of legal or regulatory principles that will no longer apply and a further slew that will be delayed or abandoned entirely until the new order takes place. This won't be sorted in weeks or months.

In the meantime we will also pick up an FTA with New Zealand, Australia, Canada, possibly India and several other smaller commonwealth nations, which in all likelihood we will have none of under the EU in five years time.

India won't sign an FTA with us, because the markets we most want opened up (financial services, energy), are the ones they are most desperate to protect.

Speedy

I think the Clark-Rifkind exchange is rehearshed and pre-planned.

No way those two would be so polite in private, they must have known the microphones were on.

MaxPB

Indigo said:

FF43 said:

John_M said:

FPT @DaemonBarber Enjoyed the essay. Inspired by that:

I might very well be wrong on Brexit. We may achieve all the downsides and none of the upsides. That would be an extremely poor outcome for the country.

I'm with a number of the middling Brexiteers on here who want to move to an EEA-like solution (and be flagging that to the markets asap). Some of us see that as a transitional arrangement, others that it's a permanent home. It doesn't really matter at this point.

Unfortunately, it's not going to become clear on whether I was wrong for some considerable time yet. We're just twelve days post-referendum. The shock and awe is still rolling across the economy. Even overseas a lot of the papers still have Brexit for breakfast, lunch and tea.

Basically, we need Brexit to move to page two (not here, it'll be news for a while), and for us to get our new administration rolling.

The process of Brexit will take a good ten years as we move from a rules based system to a painfully negotiated set of reciprocal deals. There will be a huge number of contracts that have been entered into on a set of legal or regulatory principles that will no longer apply and a further slew that will be delayed or abandoned entirely until the new order takes place. This won't be sorted in weeks or months.

In the meantime we will also pick up an FTA with New Zealand, Australia, Canada, possibly India and several other smaller commonwealth nations, which in all likelihood we will have none of under the EU in five years time.

Yes but we have a 2-3 year deadline. If you think a trade deal can be signed in that time while also negotiating with the EU, I have a bridge to sell you.

John_M

williamglenn said:

FPT

Charles said:

Jobabob said:

an uneasy coalition of bitter wealth-hating failures, xenophobic myopic Little Englanders and rabid rightwing nutjobs

You seen very interested in questions and answers:

How would you classify

@rcs1000
@Charles
@MaxPB

On your scale?

Has anything happened since the vote that you didn't expect? Do you think that people like you and the above are in control of events?

I didn't expect the FTSE 100 to be up (in retrospect it's more obvious). I expected the £ to be a little lower against the dollar and euro. I didn't expect the construction PMI to drop so sharply, so quickly. I didn't expect Leadsom to become a wunderkind. Nothing has happened to make me go 'uh-oh'.

Not sure anyone's in control. The world has all kinds of distortions and imbalances. Brexit might be a catalyst for something worse. It might finally kick the Italian banking system off a cliff. China might go 'poof'.

Indigo

SeanT said:

eek said:

rcs1000 said:

Indigo said:

rcs1000 said:

MTimT said:

For those of you looking for some more reasoned analysis of the economic fallout of Brexit - and indeed the motivations behind Brexit - I highly recommend this piece.

http://thesovereigninvestor.com/exclusives/u-s-betrayed-real-reason-britain-left-european-union/?z=523876

Warning - do not drink coffee while reading. You may ruin your computer. I particularly liked the idea that gold will reach $10,000 an ounce

Who is the "rogue economist"? And why can't he be named in the article?

BTW: whatever happened to the sovereign debt crisis that was due to kick off in September 2015? The Elliott Waves were so clear...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Dale_Davidson

Oh, I read The Great Reckoning, which he wrote with Mogg Senior.

It's an entertaining read. Among the forecasts I most remember:

- our cities being hollowed out as people choose instead to live in the countryside
- Japan overtaking the USA as the world's largest economy
- the coming "Slump of the 1990s"
- the fall of Communism and the rise of Islam

Well, one out of four ain't bad...

I have a copy at work - I'll see if I can dig it out.

Japan overtaking the USA was a common viewpoint in the late 80's. It worked as an argument if you didn't look at demographics....

Likewise Communism (would give them a point for the rise of Islam though).

Or geography, or natural resources, or soft power, or language...

Japan was never going to overtake the USA. It was a hallucination. China will, however.

Still waiting for China to declare HK or Macau a tax haven for external savers and investors and refuse to yield any information to foreign revenue services, chortle

MaxPB

rcs1000 said:

Indigo said:

FF43 said:

John_M said:

FPT @DaemonBarber Enjoyed the essay. Inspired by that:

I might very well be wrong on Brexit. We may achieve all the downsides and none of the upsides. That would be an extremely poor outcome for the country.

I'm with a number of the middling Brexiteers on here who want to move to an EEA-like solution (and be flagging that to the markets asap). Some of us see that as a transitional arrangement, others that it's a permanent home. It doesn't really matter at this point.

Unfortunately, it's not going to become clear on whether I was wrong for some considerable time yet. We're just twelve days post-referendum. The shock and awe is still rolling across the economy. Even overseas a lot of the papers still have Brexit for breakfast, lunch and tea.

Basically, we need Brexit to move to page two (not here, it'll be news for a while), and for us to get our new administration rolling.

The process of Brexit will take a good ten years as we move from a rules based system to a painfully negotiated set of reciprocal deals. There will be a huge number of contracts that have been entered into on a set of legal or regulatory principles that will no longer apply and a further slew that will be delayed or abandoned entirely until the new order takes place. This won't be sorted in weeks or months.

In the meantime we will also pick up an FTA with New Zealand, Australia, Canada, possibly India and several other smaller commonwealth nations, which in all likelihood we will have none of under the EU in five years time.

India won't sign an FTA with us, because the markets we most want opened up (financial services, energy), are the ones they are most desperate to protect.

Plus the government is addicted to easy tariff income.

TheScreamingEagles

@lewis_goodall: This says it all about the PLP: "Owen Smith is annoyed Angela Eagle won't agree to arbitration to decide who is the unity candidate." #wato

ToryJim

SandyRentool said:

ToryJim said:

Danny565 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The comparison with Thatcher will help May with the members even more.

Tory members really do like the feeling of a spanking from a nanny-type figure, don't they?

Tory members do like their women to be part nanny part dominatrix

Leadsom/Patel joint ticket?

I wouldn't want either of them any where near the levers of power. Leadsom appears to have some pretty antediluvian views on workers rights, gay adoption and Islamic dress. Priti Patel just seems pretty vacuous in the main.

felix

John_M said:

FPT @DaemonBarber Enjoyed the essay. Inspired by that:

I might very well be wrong on Brexit. We may achieve all the downsides and none of the upsides. That would be an extremely poor outcome for the country.

I'm with a number of the middling Brexiteers on here who want to move to an EEA-like solution (and be flagging that to the markets asap). Some of us see that as a transitional arrangement, others that it's a permanent home. It doesn't really matter at this point.

Unfortunately, it's not going to become clear on whether I was wrong for some considerable time yet. We're just twelve days post-referendum. The shock and awe is still rolling across the economy. Even overseas a lot of the papers still have Brexit for breakfast, lunch and tea.

Basically, we need Brexit to move to page two (not here, it'll be news for a while), and for us to get our new administration rolling.

I agree - but the shock and awe is still news and has direct effects on many of us. My monthly income will drop quite a bit next month - I also have plenty of euros to absorb the loss - but there are many I know who don't and some face real hardship as the slide continues.

Slackbladder

TheScreamingEagles said:

@lewis_goodall: This says it all about the PLP: "Owen Smith is annoyed Angela Eagle won't agree to arbitration to decide who is the unity candidate." #wato

what a utter shower.... spineless cretins the lot of them. Corbyn should have been gone over a week ago.

rcs1000

MaxPB said:

rcs1000 said:

Indigo said:

FF43 said:

John_M said:

FPT @DaemonBarber Enjoyed the essay. Inspired by that:

I might very well be wrong on Brexit. We may achieve all the downsides and none of the upsides. That would be an extremely poor outcome for the country.

I'm with a number of the middling Brexiteers on here who want to move to an EEA-like solution (and be flagging that to the markets asap). Some of us see that as a transitional arrangement, others that it's a permanent home. It doesn't really matter at this point.

Unfortunately, it's not going to become clear on whether I was wrong for some considerable time yet. We're just twelve days post-referendum. The shock and awe is still rolling across the economy. Even overseas a lot of the papers still have Brexit for breakfast, lunch and tea.

Basically, we need Brexit to move to page two (not here, it'll be news for a while), and for us to get our new administration rolling.

The process of Brexit will take a good ten years as we move from a rules based system to a painfully negotiated set of reciprocal deals. There will be a huge number of contracts that have been entered into on a set of legal or regulatory principles that will no longer apply and a further slew that will be delayed or abandoned entirely until the new order takes place. This won't be sorted in weeks or months.

In the meantime we will also pick up an FTA with New Zealand, Australia, Canada, possibly India and several other smaller commonwealth nations, which in all likelihood we will have none of under the EU in five years time.

India won't sign an FTA with us, because the markets we most want opened up (financial services, energy), are the ones they are most desperate to protect.

Plus the government is addicted to easy tariff income.

Too true.

Scott_P

@RuthDavidsonMSP: If I was Nick Timothy, I'd get ordering some "Cometh the bloody difficult hour, cometh the bloody difficult woman" merchandise immediately..

Indigo

MaxPB said:

Indigo said:

FF43 said:

John_M said:

FPT @DaemonBarber Enjoyed the essay. Inspired by that:

I might very well be wrong on Brexit. We may achieve all the downsides and none of the upsides. That would be an extremely poor outcome for the country.

I'm with a number of the middling Brexiteers on here who want to move to an EEA-like solution (and be flagging that to the markets asap). Some of us see that as a transitional arrangement, others that it's a permanent home. It doesn't really matter at this point.

Unfortunately, it's not going to become clear on whether I was wrong for some considerable time yet. We're just twelve days post-referendum. The shock and awe is still rolling across the economy. Even overseas a lot of the papers still have Brexit for breakfast, lunch and tea.

Basically, we need Brexit to move to page two (not here, it'll be news for a while), and for us to get our new administration rolling.

The process of Brexit will take a good ten years as we move from a rules based system to a painfully negotiated set of reciprocal deals. There will be a huge number of contracts that have been entered into on a set of legal or regulatory principles that will no longer apply and a further slew that will be delayed or abandoned entirely until the new order takes place. This won't be sorted in weeks or months.

In the meantime we will also pick up an FTA with New Zealand, Australia, Canada, possibly India and several other smaller commonwealth nations, which in all likelihood we will have none of under the EU in five years time.

Yes but we have a 2-3 year deadline. If you think a trade deal can be signed in that time while also negotiating with the EU, I have a bridge to sell you.

I wasn't disagreeing with that, I was observing that the next ten years are not remotely going to be all doom and gloom of reconstituting bits of the EU as we move to the EEA, there are several quite large benefits to be seized as well, benefits which were carefully put to one side in the financial projects for Project Bullshit.

ToryJim

TheScreamingEagles said:

@lewis_goodall: This says it all about the PLP: "Owen Smith is annoyed Angela Eagle won't agree to arbitration to decide who is the unity candidate." #wato

Labour is surreal!!

PlatoSaid

Speedy said:

I think the Clark-Rifkind exchange is rehearshed and pre-planned.

No way those two would be so polite in private, they must have known the microphones were on.

No banter either. Ken looked a complete wreck, as if he'd been pulled out of a heavy liquid lunch.

felix

williamglenn said:

FPT

Charles said:

Jobabob said:

an uneasy coalition of bitter wealth-hating failures, xenophobic myopic Little Englanders and rabid rightwing nutjobs

You seen very interested in questions and answers:

How would you classify

@rcs1000
@Charles
@MaxPB

On your scale?

Has anything happened since the vote that you didn't expect? Do you think that people like you and the above are in control of events?

I would cut Mr. Job a bit of slack and think what some of the more rabid 'Leavers' would have been like now had the result been reversed.

John_M

felix said:

John_M said:

FPT @DaemonBarber Enjoyed the essay. Inspired by that:

I might very well be wrong on Brexit. We may achieve all the downsides and none of the upsides. That would be an extremely poor outcome for the country.

I'm with a number of the middling Brexiteers on here who want to move to an EEA-like solution (and be flagging that to the markets asap). Some of us see that as a transitional arrangement, others that it's a permanent home. It doesn't really matter at this point.

Unfortunately, it's not going to become clear on whether I was wrong for some considerable time yet. We're just twelve days post-referendum. The shock and awe is still rolling across the economy. Even overseas a lot of the papers still have Brexit for breakfast, lunch and tea.

Basically, we need Brexit to move to page two (not here, it'll be news for a while), and for us to get our new administration rolling.

I agree - but the shock and awe is still news and has direct effects on many of us. My monthly income will drop quite a bit next month - I also have plenty of euros to absorb the loss - but there are many I know who don't and some face real hardship as the slide continues.

felix, I'm not going to try and gloss things over. The only consolation I think we can take is that the ECB does not want a strong Euro, which will mitigate things somewhat. We are going to have a lower exchange rate vs the dollar & euro for *handwave* period of time.

taffys

Fascinating Speccie article out there on whether Italy might follow the UK.

Also their term for Brexit 'la Bomba Britannica' is much better.

malcolmg

MaxPB said:

Pulpstar said:

Despite the fact that I think making EU citizens pawnswas a poor mis-step by May - we could probably do with a "bloody difficult" woman leading EU exit negotiations rather than "full asking price" Dave in there.

We need an EU wide agreement foe reciprocal residency rights until we resolve the long term issue of Brexit. With the Spanish PM saying Brits in Spain weren't guaranteed rights to live there this is the correct reaction, anything less would be a unilateral disarmament.

you been polishing your boots

Pulpstar

Indigo said:

FF43 said:

John_M said:

FPT @DaemonBarber Enjoyed the essay. Inspired by that:

I might very well be wrong on Brexit. We may achieve all the downsides and none of the upsides. That would be an extremely poor outcome for the country.

I'm with a number of the middling Brexiteers on here who want to move to an EEA-like solution (and be flagging that to the markets asap). Some of us see that as a transitional arrangement, others that it's a permanent home. It doesn't really matter at this point.

Unfortunately, it's not going to become clear on whether I was wrong for some considerable time yet. We're just twelve days post-referendum. The shock and awe is still rolling across the economy. Even overseas a lot of the papers still have Brexit for breakfast, lunch and tea.

Basically, we need Brexit to move to page two (not here, it'll be news for a while), and for us to get our new administration rolling.

The process of Brexit will take a good ten years as we move from a rules based system to a painfully negotiated set of reciprocal deals. There will be a huge number of contracts that have been entered into on a set of legal or regulatory principles that will no longer apply and a further slew that will be delayed or abandoned entirely until the new order takes place. This won't be sorted in weeks or months.

In the meantime we will also pick up an FTA with New Zealand, Australia, Canada, possibly India and several other smaller commonwealth nations, which in all likelihood we will have none of under the EU in five years time.

I'd put Australia on hold for the moment, its going to take them an age to sort out a government there if the coalition doesn't get over 76 seats.

DaemonBarber

Thanks all...

GIN1138

Speedy said:

I think the Clark-Rifkind exchange is rehearshed and pre-planned.

No way those two would be so polite in private, they must have known the microphones were on.

What are they up to?

MaxPB

Indigo said:

MaxPB said:

Indigo said:

FF43 said:

John_M said:

FPT @DaemonBarber Enjoyed the essay. Inspired by that:

I might very well be wrong on Brexit. We may achieve all the downsides and none of the upsides. That would be an extremely poor outcome for the country.

I'm with a number of the middling Brexiteers on here who want to move to an EEA-like solution (and be flagging that to the markets asap). Some of us see that as a transitional arrangement, others that it's a permanent home. It doesn't really matter at this point.

Unfortunately, it's not going to become clear on whether I was wrong for some considerable time yet. We're just twelve days post-referendum. The shock and awe is still rolling across the economy. Even overseas a lot of the papers still have Brexit for breakfast, lunch and tea.

Basically, we need Brexit to move to page two (not here, it'll be news for a while), and for us to get our new administration rolling.

The process of Brexit will take a good ten years as we move from a rules based system to a painfully negotiated set of reciprocal deals. There will be a huge number of contracts that have been entered into on a set of legal or regulatory principles that will no longer apply and a further slew that will be delayed or abandoned entirely until the new order takes place. This won't be sorted in weeks or months.

In the meantime we will also pick up an FTA with New Zealand, Australia, Canada, possibly India and several other smaller commonwealth nations, which in all likelihood we will have none of under the EU in five years time.

Yes but we have a 2-3 year deadline. If you think a trade deal can be signed in that time while also negotiating with the EU, I have a bridge to sell you.

I wasn't disagreeing with that, I was observing that the next ten years are not remotely going to be all doom and gloom of reconstituting bits of the EU as we move to the EEA, there are several quite large benefits to be seized as well, benefits which were carefully put to one side in the financial projects for Project Bullshit.

Well I'm glad you accept that EEA membership is what we need.

Morris_Dancer

Good afternoon, everyone.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

SandyRentool said:

ToryJim said:

Danny565 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The comparison with Thatcher will help May with the members even more.

Tory members really do like the feeling of a spanking from a nanny-type figure, don't they?

Tory members do like their women to be part nanny part dominatrix

Leadsom/Patel joint ticket?

Suits me:-)

MonikerDiCanio

Ken Clarke looks like WH Auden in his final days. A derelict.

felix

SeanT said:

John_M said:

williamglenn said:

FPT

Charles said:

Jobabob said:

an uneasy coalition of bitter wealth-hating failures, xenophobic myopic Little Englanders and rabid rightwing nutjobs

You seen very interested in questions and answers:

How would you classify

@rcs1000
@Charles
@MaxPB

On your scale?

Has anything happened since the vote that you didn't expect? Do you think that people like you and the above are in control of events?

I didn't expect the FTSE 100 to be up (in retrospect it's more obvious). I expected the £ to be a little lower against the dollar and euro. I didn't expect the construction PMI to drop so sharply, so quickly. I didn't expect Leadsom to become a wunderkind.

Not sure anyone's in control. The world has all kinds of distortions and imbalances. Brexit might be a catalyst for something worse. It might finally kick the Italian banking system off a cliff. China might go 'poof'.

This is simultaneously reassuring and chilling.

If we move into the EEA and get passporting, we might even escape without a recession - though growth will slow, markedly.

If we fall out of the Single Market, then we are staring at catastrophe

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/07/04/sp-scoffs-at-armageddon-warnings-for-britain/

The latter is the Gove/Leadsom option.

rcs1000

MaxPB said:

Indigo said:

FF43 said:

John_M said:

FPT @DaemonBarber Enjoyed the essay. Inspired by that:

I might very well be wrong on Brexit. We may achieve all the downsides and none of the upsides. That would be an extremely poor outcome for the country.

I'm with a number of the middling Brexiteers on here who want to move to an EEA-like solution (and be flagging that to the markets asap). Some of us see that as a transitional arrangement, others that it's a permanent home. It doesn't really matter at this point.

Unfortunately, it's not going to become clear on whether I was wrong for some considerable time yet. We're just twelve days post-referendum. The shock and awe is still rolling across the economy. Even overseas a lot of the papers still have Brexit for breakfast, lunch and tea.

Basically, we need Brexit to move to page two (not here, it'll be news for a while), and for us to get our new administration rolling.

The process of Brexit will take a good ten years as we move from a rules based system to a painfully negotiated set of reciprocal deals. There will be a huge number of contracts that have been entered into on a set of legal or regulatory principles that will no longer apply and a further slew that will be delayed or abandoned entirely until the new order takes place. This won't be sorted in weeks or months.

In the meantime we will also pick up an FTA with New Zealand, Australia, Canada, possibly India and several other smaller commonwealth nations, which in all likelihood we will have none of under the EU in five years time.

Yes but we have a 2-3 year deadline. If you think a trade deal can be signed in that time while also negotiating with the EU, I have a bridge to sell you.

Here is the full text of the Trans Pacific Partnership treaty between New Zealand and the United States: https://www.mfat.govt.nz/assets/_securedfiles/Trans-Pacific-Partnership/Text/TPP_All-Chapters.zip

It's 5.4mb, zipped, and contains 30 chapters. I don't know exactly how many words it is, but I'd guess something a little north of 100,000. (3,000 words a chapter may be on the low side.)

People hugely underestimate the complexity of these kinds of things.

MaxPB

SeanT said:

Indigo said:

MaxPB said:

Indigo said:

FF43 said:

John_M said:

FPT @DaemonBarber Enjoyed the essay. Inspired by that:

I might very well be wrong on Brexit. We may achieve all the downsides and none of the upsides. That would be an extremely poor outcome for the country.

I'm with a number of the middling Brexiteers on here who want to move to an EEA-like solution (and be flagging that to the markets asap). Some of us see that as a transitional arrangement, others that it's a permanent home. It doesn't really matter at this point.

Unfortunately, it's not going to become clear on whether I was wrong for some considerable time yet. We're just twelve days post-referendum. The shock and awe is still rolling across the economy. Even overseas a lot of the papers still have Brexit for breakfast, lunch and tea.

Basically, we need Brexit to move to page two (not here, it'll be news for a while), and for us to get our new administration rolling.

The process of Brexit will take a good ten years as we move from a rules based system to a painfully negotiated set of reciprocal deals. There will be a huge number of contracts that have been entered into on a set of legal or regulatory principles that will no longer apply and a further slew that will be delayed or abandoned entirely until the new order takes place. This won't be sorted in weeks or months.

In the meantime we will also pick up an FTA with New Zealand, Australia, Canada, possibly India and several other smaller commonwealth nations, which in all likelihood we will have none of under the EU in five years time.

Yes but we have a 2-3 year deadline. If you think a trade deal can be signed in that time while also negotiating with the EU, I have a bridge to sell you.

I wasn't disagreeing with that, I was observing that the next ten years are not remotely going to be all doom and gloom of reconstituting bits of the EU as we move to the EEA, there are several quite large benefits to be seized as well, benefits which were carefully put to one side in the financial projects for Project Bullshit.

The next prime minister needs to announce the third runway at Heathrow, ASAP.

Show we mean business, show we're still in the game. Fuck all the eco shit, now.

We don't have any choice any more.

Put Liam Fox in charge of climate change!

TGOHF

SeanT said:

Indigo said:

MaxPB said:

Indigo said:

FF43 said:

John_M said:

FPT @DaemonBarber Enjoyed the essay. Inspired by that:

I might very well be wrong on Brexit. We may achieve all the downsides and none of the upsides. That would be an extremely poor outcome for the country.

I'm with a number of the middling Brexiteers on here who want to move to an EEA-like solution (and be flagging that to the markets asap). Some of us see that as a transitional arrangement, others that it's a permanent home. It doesn't really matter at this point.

Unfortunately, it's not going to become clear on whether I was wrong for some considerable time yet. We're just twelve days post-referendum. The shock and awe is still rolling across the economy. Even overseas a lot of the papers still have Brexit for breakfast, lunch and tea.

Basically, we need Brexit to move to page two (not here, it'll be news for a while), and for us to get our new administration rolling.

The process of Brexit will take a good ten years as we move from a rules based system to a painfully negotiated set of reciprocal deals. There will be a huge number of contracts that have been entered into on a set of legal or regulatory principles that will no longer apply and a further slew that will be delayed or abandoned entirely until the new order takes place. This won't be sorted in weeks or months.

In the meantime we will also pick up an FTA with New Zealand, Australia, Canada, possibly India and several other smaller commonwealth nations, which in all likelihood we will have none of under the EU in five years time.

Yes but we have a 2-3 year deadline. If you think a trade deal can be signed in that time while also negotiating with the EU, I have a bridge to sell you.

I wasn't disagreeing with that, I was observing that the next ten years are not remotely going to be all doom and gloom of reconstituting bits of the EU as we move to the EEA, there are several quite large benefits to be seized as well, benefits which were carefully put to one side in the financial projects for Project Bullshit.

The next prime minister needs to announce the third runway at Heathrow, ASAP.

Show we mean business, show we're still in the game. Fuck all the eco shit, now.

We don't have any choice any more.

A singular downside of Boris being knifed is the final nail in the coffin of building a world class modern "Chinese" level airport complex in the Thames estuary. He was the only one willing to move us forward from the 1950 solution with an extra runway.

SimonStClare

TheScreamingEagles said:

@lewis_goodall: This says it all about the PLP: "Owen Smith is annoyed Angela Eagle won't agree to arbitration to decide who is the unity candidate." #wato

This Labour leadership joke has lasted nearly as long as the kipper tie one.

MaxPB

malcolmg said:

MaxPB said:

Pulpstar said:

Despite the fact that I think making EU citizens pawnswas a poor mis-step by May - we could probably do with a "bloody difficult" woman leading EU exit negotiations rather than "full asking price" Dave in there.

We need an EU wide agreement foe reciprocal residency rights until we resolve the long term issue of Brexit. With the Spanish PM saying Brits in Spain weren't guaranteed rights to live there this is the correct reaction, anything less would be a unilateral disarmament.

you been polishing your boots

Ready to march up to turnip land and force feed everyone curry.

John_M

SeanT said:

John_M said:

williamglenn said:

FPT

Charles said:

Jobabob said:

an uneasy coalition of bitter wealth-hating failures, xenophobic myopic Little Englanders and rabid rightwing nutjobs

You seen very interested in questions and answers:

How would you classify

@rcs1000
@Charles
@MaxPB

On your scale?

Has anything happened since the vote that you didn't expect? Do you think that people like you and the above are in control of events?

I didn't expect the FTSE 100 to be up (in retrospect it's more obvious). I expected the £ to be a little lower against the dollar and euro. I didn't expect the construction PMI to drop so sharply, so quickly. I didn't expect Leadsom to become a wunderkind.

Not sure anyone's in control. The world has all kinds of distortions and imbalances. Brexit might be a catalyst for something worse. It might finally kick the Italian banking system off a cliff. China might go 'poof'.

This is simultaneously reassuring and chilling.

If we move into the EEA and get passporting, we might even escape without a recession - though growth will slow, markedly.

If we fall out of the Single Market, then we are staring at catastrophe

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/07/04/sp-scoffs-at-armageddon-warnings-for-britain/

S&P are just saying what NIESR were saying before the referendum. Unfortunately, Remain couldn't capitalise on it, and sad to say, a lot of Brexiters refused to even look at the report (who needs experts! Freeeedom!).

Even if we fall out of the single market, it's not a 'catastrophe' (not me saying that, it's NIESR model #4) it's 'the least desirable option'.

Leaving aside the treasury model, which was shit and skewed to make a political point, the consensus is that the UK trend growth rate becomes less like Germany and more like France for some period of time - that length depends on which particular model you fancy.

As I keep saying, we could completely fuck it up. I'm assuming a modest level of political competence all round.

felix

John_M said:

felix said:

John_M said:

FPT @DaemonBarber Enjoyed the essay. Inspired by that:

I might very well be wrong on Brexit. We may achieve all the downsides and none of the upsides. That would be an extremely poor outcome for the country.

I'm with a number of the middling Brexiteers on here who want to move to an EEA-like solution (and be flagging that to the markets asap). Some of us see that as a transitional arrangement, others that it's a permanent home. It doesn't really matter at this point.

Unfortunately, it's not going to become clear on whether I was wrong for some considerable time yet. We're just twelve days post-referendum. The shock and awe is still rolling across the economy. Even overseas a lot of the papers still have Brexit for breakfast, lunch and tea.

Basically, we need Brexit to move to page two (not here, it'll be news for a while), and for us to get our new administration rolling.

I agree - but the shock and awe is still news and has direct effects on many of us. My monthly income will drop quite a bit next month - I also have plenty of euros to absorb the loss - but there are many I know who don't and some face real hardship as the slide continues.

felix, I'm not going to try and gloss things over. The only consolation I think we can take is that the ECB does not want a strong Euro, which will mitigate things somewhat. We are going to have a lower exchange rate vs the dollar & euro for *handwave* period of time.

Yes - I fear the Leadsom/Gove Brexit will be a lot worse than the May Brexit - and several more months of uncertainty into the bargain.

ToryJim

Rumours Gove could withdraw after today's ballot. Interesting.

IanB2

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

Indigo said:

FF43 said:

John_M said:

FPT @DaemonBarber Enjoyed the essay. Inspired by that:

I might very well be wrong on Brexit. We may achieve all the downsides and none of the upsides. That would be an extremely poor outcome for the country.

I'm with a number of the middling Brexiteers on here who want to move to an EEA-like solution (and be flagging that to the markets asap). Some of us see that as a transitional arrangement, others that it's a permanent home. It doesn't really matter at this point.

Unfortunately, it's not going to become clear on whether I was wrong for some considerable time yet. We're just twelve days post-referendum. The shock and awe is still rolling across the economy. Even overseas a lot of the papers still have Brexit for breakfast, lunch and tea.

Basically, we need Brexit to move to page two (not here, it'll be news for a while), and for us to get our new administration rolling.

The process of Brexit will take a good ten years as we move from a rules based system to a painfully negotiated set of reciprocal deals. There will be a huge number of contracts that have been entered into on a set of legal or regulatory principles that will no longer apply and a further slew that will be delayed or abandoned entirely until the new order takes place. This won't be sorted in weeks or months.

In the meantime we will also pick up an FTA with New Zealand, Australia, Canada, possibly India and several other smaller commonwealth nations, which in all likelihood we will have none of under the EU in five years time.

Yes but we have a 2-3 year deadline. If you think a trade deal can be signed in that time while also negotiating with the EU, I have a bridge to sell you.

Here is the full text of the Trans Pacific Partnership treaty between New Zealand and the United States: https://www.mfat.govt.nz/assets/_securedfiles/Trans-Pacific-Partnership/Text/TPP_All-Chapters.zip

It's 5.4mb, zipped, and contains 30 chapters. I don't know exactly how many words it is, but I'd guess something a little north of 100,000. (3,000 words a chapter may be on the low side.)

People hugely underestimate the complexity of these kinds of things.

MS Word has a find and replace function. We just need to take somebody else's work and swap the country names (lol).

TheWhiteRabbit

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

Indigo said:

FF43 said:

John_M said:

FPT @DaemonBarber Enjoyed the essay. Inspired by that:

I might very well be wrong on Brexit. We may achieve all the downsides and none of the upsides. That would be an extremely poor outcome for the country.

I'm with a number of the middling Brexiteers on here who want to move to an EEA-like solution (and be flagging that to the markets asap). Some of us see that as a transitional arrangement, others that it's a permanent home. It doesn't really matter at this point.

Unfortunately, it's not going to become clear on whether I was wrong for some considerable time yet. We're just twelve days post-referendum. The shock and awe is still rolling across the economy. Even overseas a lot of the papers still have Brexit for breakfast, lunch and tea.

Basically, we need Brexit to move to page two (not here, it'll be news for a while), and for us to get our new administration rolling.

The process of Brexit will take a good ten years as we move from a rules based system to a painfully negotiated set of reciprocal deals. There will be a huge number of contracts that have been entered into on a set of legal or regulatory principles that will no longer apply and a further slew that will be delayed or abandoned entirely until the new order takes place. This won't be sorted in weeks or months.

In the meantime we will also pick up an FTA with New Zealand, Australia, Canada, possibly India and several other smaller commonwealth nations, which in all likelihood we will have none of under the EU in five years time.

Yes but we have a 2-3 year deadline. If you think a trade deal can be signed in that time while also negotiating with the EU, I have a bridge to sell you.

Here is the full text of the Trans Pacific Partnership treaty between New Zealand and the United States: https://www.mfat.govt.nz/assets/_securedfiles/Trans-Pacific-Partnership/Text/TPP_All-Chapters.zip

It's 5.4mb, zipped, and contains 30 chapters. I don't know exactly how many words it is, but I'd guess something a little north of 100,000. (3,000 words a chapter may be on the low side.)

People hugely underestimate the complexity of these kinds of things.

I think Britain would do well to have a clear idea of our relationship with Europe, and our status vis-à-vis TTIP, after two years.

MaxPB

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

Indigo said:

FF43 said:

John_M said:

FPT @DaemonBarber Enjoyed the essay. Inspired by that:

I might very well be wrong on Brexit. We may achieve all the downsides and none of the upsides. That would be an extremely poor outcome for the country.

I'm with a number of the middling Brexiteers on here who want to move to an EEA-like solution (and be flagging that to the markets asap). Some of us see that as a transitional arrangement, others that it's a permanent home. It doesn't really matter at this point.

Unfortunately, it's not going to become clear on whether I was wrong for some considerable time yet. We're just twelve days post-referendum. The shock and awe is still rolling across the economy. Even overseas a lot of the papers still have Brexit for breakfast, lunch and tea.

Basically, we need Brexit to move to page two (not here, it'll be news for a while), and for us to get our new administration rolling.

The process of Brexit will take a good ten years as we move from a rules based system to a painfully negotiated set of reciprocal deals. There will be a huge number of contracts that have been entered into on a set of legal or regulatory principles that will no longer apply and a further slew that will be delayed or abandoned entirely until the new order takes place. This won't be sorted in weeks or months.

In the meantime we will also pick up an FTA with New Zealand, Australia, Canada, possibly India and several other smaller commonwealth nations, which in all likelihood we will have none of under the EU in five years time.

Yes but we have a 2-3 year deadline. If you think a trade deal can be signed in that time while also negotiating with the EU, I have a bridge to sell you.

Here is the full text of the Trans Pacific Partnership treaty between New Zealand and the United States: https://www.mfat.govt.nz/assets/_securedfiles/Trans-Pacific-Partnership/Text/TPP_All-Chapters.zip

It's 5.4mb, zipped, and contains 30 chapters. I don't know exactly how many words it is, but I'd guess something a little north of 100,000. (3,000 words a chapter may be on the low side.)

People hugely underestimate the complexity of these kinds of things.

I'd prefer not to download that. Our IT department goes nutso whenever someone downloads a zip file, so I'll have to take your word for it. Oh btw, I'm reworking the 9.6% figure myself. It doesn't feel right to me.

rcs1000

SeanT said:

Indigo said:

MaxPB said:

Indigo said:

FF43 said:

John_M said:

FPT @DaemonBarber Enjoyed the essay. Inspired by that:

I might very well be wrong on Brexit. We may achieve all the downsides and none of the upsides. That would be an extremely poor outcome for the country.

I'm with a number of the middling Brexiteers on here who want to move to an EEA-like solution (and be flagging that to the markets asap). Some of us see that as a transitional arrangement, others that it's a permanent home. It doesn't really matter at this point.

Unfortunately, it's not going to become clear on whether I was wrong for some considerable time yet. We're just twelve days post-referendum. The shock and awe is still rolling across the economy. Even overseas a lot of the papers still have Brexit for breakfast, lunch and tea.

Basically, we need Brexit to move to page two (not here, it'll be news for a while), and for us to get our new administration rolling.

The process of Brexit will take a good ten years as we move from a rules based system to a painfully negotiated set of reciprocal deals. There will be a huge number of contracts that have been entered into on a set of legal or regulatory principles that will no longer apply and a further slew that will be delayed or abandoned entirely until the new order takes place. This won't be sorted in weeks or months.

In the meantime we will also pick up an FTA with New Zealand, Australia, Canada, possibly India and several other smaller commonwealth nations, which in all likelihood we will have none of under the EU in five years time.

Yes but we have a 2-3 year deadline. If you think a trade deal can be signed in that time while also negotiating with the EU, I have a bridge to sell you.

I wasn't disagreeing with that, I was observing that the next ten years are not remotely going to be all doom and gloom of reconstituting bits of the EU as we move to the EEA, there are several quite large benefits to be seized as well, benefits which were carefully put to one side in the financial projects for Project Bullshit.

The next prime minister needs to announce the third runway at Heathrow, ASAP.

Show we mean business, show we're still in the game. Fuck all the eco shit, now.

We don't have any choice any more.

Agreed.

felix

taffys said:

Fascinating Speccie article out there on whether Italy might follow the UK.

Also their term for Brexit 'la Bomba Britannica' is much better.

Very unlikely to happen unless in the wake of a massive economic collapse which would not be good for any of us right now.

Mortimer

Clark sounds relatively comfortable with Fox, May or Leadsom as leader from that snippet.

I'm beginning to wonder if Crabb and Gove could be slugging it out for 4th and 5th with Fox sneaking a third place today....

Indigo

SeanT said:

Indigo said:

MaxPB said:

Indigo said:

FF43 said:

John_M said:

FPT @DaemonBarber Enjoyed the essay. Inspired by that:

I might very well be wrong on Brexit. We may achieve all the downsides and none of the upsides. That would be an extremely poor outcome for the country.

I'm with a number of the middling Brexiteers on here who want to move to an EEA-like solution (and be flagging that to the markets asap). Some of us see that as a transitional arrangement, others that it's a permanent home. It doesn't really matter at this point.

Unfortunately, it's not going to become clear on whether I was wrong for some considerable time yet. We're just twelve days post-referendum. The shock and awe is still rolling across the economy. Even overseas a lot of the papers still have Brexit for breakfast, lunch and tea.

Basically, we need Brexit to move to page two (not here, it'll be news for a while), and for us to get our new administration rolling.

The process of Brexit will take a good ten years as we move from a rules based system to a painfully negotiated set of reciprocal deals. There will be a huge number of contracts that have been entered into on a set of legal or regulatory principles that will no longer apply and a further slew that will be delayed or abandoned entirely until the new order takes place. This won't be sorted in weeks or months.

In the meantime we will also pick up an FTA with New Zealand, Australia, Canada, possibly India and several other smaller commonwealth nations, which in all likelihood we will have none of under the EU in five years time.

Yes but we have a 2-3 year deadline. If you think a trade deal can be signed in that time while also negotiating with the EU, I have a bridge to sell you.

I wasn't disagreeing with that, I was observing that the next ten years are not remotely going to be all doom and gloom of reconstituting bits of the EU as we move to the EEA, there are several quite large benefits to be seized as well, benefits which were carefully put to one side in the financial projects for Project Bullshit.

The next prime minister needs to announce the third runway at Heathrow, ASAP.

Show we mean business, show we're still in the game. Fuck all the eco shit, now.

We don't have any choice any more.

Read William Hague in the Telegraph, he is very sound on this and similar issues.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/04/we-conservatives-are-all-leavers-now-we-must-unite-to-build-a-ne/

MaxPB

IanB2 said:

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

Indigo said:

FF43 said:

John_M said:

FPT @DaemonBarber Enjoyed the essay. Inspired by that:

I might very well be wrong on Brexit. We may achieve all the downsides and none of the upsides. That would be an extremely poor outcome for the country.

I'm with a number of the middling Brexiteers on here who want to move to an EEA-like solution (and be flagging that to the markets asap). Some of us see that as a transitional arrangement, others that it's a permanent home. It doesn't really matter at this point.

Unfortunately, it's not going to become clear on whether I was wrong for some considerable time yet. We're just twelve days post-referendum. The shock and awe is still rolling across the economy. Even overseas a lot of the papers still have Brexit for breakfast, lunch and tea.

Basically, we need Brexit to move to page two (not here, it'll be news for a while), and for us to get our new administration rolling.

The process of Brexit will take a good ten years as we move from a rules based system to a painfully negotiated set of reciprocal deals. There will be a huge number of contracts that have been entered into on a set of legal or regulatory principles that will no longer apply and a further slew that will be delayed or abandoned entirely until the new order takes place. This won't be sorted in weeks or months.

In the meantime we will also pick up an FTA with New Zealand, Australia, Canada, possibly India and several other smaller commonwealth nations, which in all likelihood we will have none of under the EU in five years time.

Yes but we have a 2-3 year deadline. If you think a trade deal can be signed in that time while also negotiating with the EU, I have a bridge to sell you.

Here is the full text of the Trans Pacific Partnership treaty between New Zealand and the United States: https://www.mfat.govt.nz/assets/_securedfiles/Trans-Pacific-Partnership/Text/TPP_All-Chapters.zip

It's 5.4mb, zipped, and contains 30 chapters. I don't know exactly how many words it is, but I'd guess something a little north of 100,000. (3,000 words a chapter may be on the low side.)

People hugely underestimate the complexity of these kinds of things.

MS Word has a find and replace function. We just need to take somebody else's work and swap the country names (lol).

Unbelievably the EU have been caught lifting language from US trade agreements in the past. Most recently for Ukraine.

TheScreamingEagles

ToryJim said:

Rumours Gove could withdraw after today's ballot. Interesting.

So we could have the final two by Thursday.

Speedy

GIN1138 said:

Speedy said:

I think the Clark-Rifkind exchange is rehearshed and pre-planned.

No way those two would be so polite in private, they must have known the microphones were on.

What are they up to?

Trying to create an impression about the candidates, I would think.

rcs1000

ToryJim said:

Rumours Gove could withdraw after today's ballot. Interesting.

To be honest, if it's clear who the final two will be after today's ballot (hint, probably not Fox, Crabb or Gove), then we will hopefully see mass withdawls.

AndyJS

Does anyone think Liam Fox won't be the first candidate to get knocked out tonight?

ToryJim

TheScreamingEagles said:

ToryJim said:

Rumours Gove could withdraw after today's ballot. Interesting.

So we could have the final two by Thursday.

Indeed. Would suggest Crabb is doing well too or we could have the final 2 tonight

rcs1000

felix said:

taffys said:

Fascinating Speccie article out there on whether Italy might follow the UK.

Also their term for Brexit 'la Bomba Britannica' is much better.

Very unlikely to happen unless in the wake of a massive economic collapse which would not be good for any of us right now.

If another country does exit the EU in the next ten years, my money would be on it either being one of the Scandis, or Italy.

GIN1138

ToryJim said:

Rumours Gove could withdraw after today's ballot. Interesting.

I'm still not entirely sure the whole thing with Boris and Gove hasn't been completely staged in order to get Andrea Leadsom into the final two.

Leadson is inexperienced (and they probably think very weak) which if she won would leave her "fronting" the operation while Boris and Gove are in control of the government behind the scene's...

Artist

Slackbladder said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

@lewis_goodall: This says it all about the PLP: "Owen Smith is annoyed Angela Eagle won't agree to arbitration to decide who is the unity candidate." #wato

what a utter shower.... spineless cretins the lot of them. Corbyn should have been gone over a week ago.

Rock, paper, scissors?