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  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    Fox 16, cheered me up no end
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Well, that was easy money.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,305
    Fox gone, May with more than half.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,583
    Gove in touch - May/Crabb could yet push him ahead of Leadsom.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Sandpit said:

    GIN1138 said:

    ToryJim said:

    If there's a coronation, how long until Cameron toddles off?

    About 17 hours
    Cameron will have to do the governments response to Chilcot tomorrow, so it'll be Thursday or Friday I'd have thought.
    This could be the speech of his career tomorrow, eclipsing even the excellent statesman's response to the Bloody Sunday inquiry.
    I suspect his response to Chilcot will be masterful. Cameron is always great at these things.

    As PM Cameron really has frustrated the hell out of me. At times he can be an exceptional statesman but at other times he has really demeaned the office he holds.

    He could have been one of the all-time great British Prime Ministers, IMO.
    As could Blair ,,, if only .......
    The warning signs were there for Blair from the start. The arrogance. The dodgy financial dealings. The wife. ;)

    Seriously I don't think Blair could ever have been an all time great. He is too flawed.

    Cameron really could have been. Imagine if he'd LED us out of the EU after they laughed his negotiation out of Brussels...
    Agreed. But his essay crisis EU negotiation and his misreading totally of the amount of latent Leave desire out there did for him. Very Shakespeare: from cock of the walk in January to feather duster in June!

    The raspberry he got when the results of his negotiating was announced in Feb should've been a huge warning ( could've read up on here!), but the dice were probably cast by then anyway.
  • DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106
    May 165
    Leadsom 66
    Gove 48
    Crabb 34
    Fox 16 (Eliminated)

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    JackW said:

    First Round Result :

    May 165.. Leadsom 66 .. Gove 48 .. Crabb 34 .. Fox 16..

    :smile:

    Better for Gove than one might have expected, good for Leadsom, par for Theresa
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,523
    Mr. Borough, one aims to please.

    And boo!

    How many of those votes are tactical, and how many from people who want the specific chap or lady to win?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,098
    Well my tip was hopeless. Sorry chaps.

    May is way to low for a coronation though....
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    May should surely be 1.2 now?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,503
    I think we're heading for a coronation.

    May's already got a majority of the Parliamentary Party
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,088
    May won the same number of votes (165) as the Tories won seats at the 1997 election.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,583
    edited July 2016
    Gove must have got quite a few tacticals already.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 50,601

    I think we're heading for a coronation.

    May's already got a majority of the Parliamentary Party

    Would Leadsom be bought off by an offer of CoE? I don't think so.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,018
    Dave did not vote.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,088

    I think we're heading for a coronation.

    May's already got a majority of the Parliamentary Party

    Only just!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,573
    tlg86 said:

    Dave did not vote.

    Yeah, 329 votes out of 330 eligible.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,603
    Liam Fox it up?

    Theresa May looking pretty well unstoppable on these numbers. Surely they won't go for a muppet like Leadsom ahead of someone who's already over 50%? Not to mention the ghastly example of Corbyn being held in front of them?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,573

    I think we're heading for a coronation.

    May's already got a majority of the Parliamentary Party

    Only just!
    Much like Leave only just got a majority? ;)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,503

    I think we're heading for a coronation.

    May's already got a majority of the Parliamentary Party

    Would Leadsom be bought off by an offer of CoE? I don't think so.
    The men and women in grey suits will have words and tell the loathsome Leadsome does she really want to be the Tory Corbyn
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,995
    Gove could end up in the final two then if he gets enough of Fox and Crabb's votes to overhaul Leadsom. May would probably then trounce him but he is not out of it yet
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    I think we can assume that Gove will not stand down under any circs.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,003
    Assume the ballot is confidential so who voted for who will not be known
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,088
    RobD said:

    I think we're heading for a coronation.

    May's already got a majority of the Parliamentary Party

    Only just!
    Much like Leave only just got a majority? ;)
    If it's good enough for Theresa, it's good enough for BREXIT!

    BTW Your avatar is "intriguing" :lol:
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,583
    They won't want May's total to fall.

    But assuming all (or almost all) Crabb would go to May then they have easily enough votes to push Gove above Leadsom.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,573
    dr_spyn said:
    Only one, surely?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,603
    HYUFD said:

    Gove could end up in the final two then if he gets enough of Fox and Crabb's votes to overhaul Leadsom. May would probably then trounce him but he is not out of it yet

    Yes, and pigs might fly, but they don't.
  • If Theresa were to be declared the outright winner tonight/tomorrow, would Cameron leave Downing Street within hours? How quickly would the John Lewis removal vans arrive? God it just doesn't seem real somehow.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,573

    RobD said:

    I think we're heading for a coronation.

    May's already got a majority of the Parliamentary Party

    Only just!
    Much like Leave only just got a majority? ;)
    If it's good enough for Theresa, it's good enough for BREXIT!

    BTW Your avatar is "intriguing" :lol:
    She's always watching... (in her duty as Home Sec)
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    So Chilcott tomorrow, then another Tory vote on Thursday!

    My cup overfloweth.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,842
    Crabb now has no path to victory. Hope he withdraws to speed the process up.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    ydoethur said:

    Liam Fox it up?

    Theresa May looking pretty well unstoppable on these numbers. Surely they won't go for a muppet like Leadsom ahead of someone who's already over 50%? Not to mention the ghastly example of Corbyn being held in front of them?

    I think we're heading for a coronation.

    May's already got a majority of the Parliamentary Party

    It is the membership who decide, not the parliamentary party.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Charles said:

    MP_SE said:

    Two BBC employees were handed over to the police after being caught sneaking around Leave.EU's headquarters looking for Matthew Elliot.

    https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/750371966373232640

    Why would Matthew be at Leave.EU's HQ given that he was CEO of Vote Leave?
    I did wonder that. A wasted trip as Leave.EU is based in Bristol while Vote Leave is based in London. A basic search on Google was all it would have taken to ascertain this.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,503
    Remain campaigners received 199 votes

    Leave campaigners received 130 votes
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 27,661
    It would appear that May's camp can just donate the requisite amount of votes to Gove to ensure he comes second and Leadsom is eliminated.

    Whether they feel insecure enough to do it rather than have May beat Leadsom in a fair fight will be interesting.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    So, by September we have a new PM. PC Plod then tells us that 20 Tory MPs were illegally elected and we are in stage 2 of the never-ending crisis.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,018

    If Theresa were to be declared the outright winner tonight/tomorrow, would Cameron leave Downing Street within hours? How quickly would the John Lewis removal vans arrive? God it just doesn't seem real somehow.

    One can only hope. We're still waiting for Hills to pay out on Dave to go in 2016.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,503

    NEW THREAD NEW THREAD

  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Disraeli said:

    May 165
    Leadsom 66
    Gove 48
    Crabb 34
    Fox 16 (Eliminated)


    That'll be 16 more votes for Leadsom.


  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,088
    edited July 2016

    If Theresa were to be declared the outright winner tonight/tomorrow, would Cameron leave Downing Street within hours? How quickly would the John Lewis removal vans arrive? God it just doesn't seem real somehow.

    Dave:

    "We're leaving Downing Street for the last time after six wonderful years, and we're very happy that we leave the United Kingdom in a very much more divided, polarised state than when we came here six years ago."
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,573
    Fenman said:

    So, by September we have a new PM. PC Plod then tells us that 20 Tory MPs were illegally elected and we are in stage 2 of the never-ending crisis.

    Definitely a reason to have a snap GE, although I find it hard to believe they'd reach that finding.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,603
    edited July 2016

    ydoethur said:

    Liam Fox it up?

    Theresa May looking pretty well unstoppable on these numbers. Surely they won't go for a muppet like Leadsom ahead of someone who's already over 50%? Not to mention the ghastly example of Corbyn being held in front of them?

    I think we're heading for a coronation.

    May's already got a majority of the Parliamentary Party

    It is the membership who decide, not the parliamentary party.
    Yes, but would they really reject such an emphatic verdict? We're not talking about Momentum nutters here.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,159
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Gove could end up in the final two then if he gets enough of Fox and Crabb's votes to overhaul Leadsom. May would probably then trounce him but he is not out of it yet

    Yes, and pigs might fly, but they don't.
    Not if May instructs that to happen.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,305

    Sandpit said:

    Well If I've heard Heathrow might not be such a good idea these days.

    If anyone has any sense it's Gatwick.

    I agree that Gatwick is the better option. However, living near it and traveling past it, by road and rail, on a regular basis, I strongly question the associated infrastructure costs that will fall on the taxpayer. I think the plans are grossly optimistic as would anyone who cared to pop down to the train station or try and drive up the M23 at the airport's peak times. Peak times incidentally which, in the morning, coincide with the commuter crush on the London-South Coast railways.
    Is it still the case that there's no exit from the M23 between the M25 and the airport, around ten miles? Missed a flight once after an accident closed the M23 and there was no way of getting round it. Serious infrastructure needed at LGW anyway, another runway would only make the issues worse.

    They should really build both LHR and LGW runways, if they want an outside-the-box idea then an airside Hyperloop linking the two airports would allow fast transfers between them. ;)
    Mr. Pit, quite right there is no exit from the M23 after the M25 interchange and before Gatwick, and to be honest it would be difficult to think up an economically viable case why there should be so. Oh, and the distance is nine miles and not 10.

    Building a hyperloop between Gatwick and Heathrow would be spiffing - the present bus transfer fails most hours of every day because the M25 from the M3 (often the A3) around to the Heathrow Junctions is usually down to stop-start crawl in both directions, making sensible journey planning impossible. Back in the day there was a helicopter service which worked tremendously well (and wasn't that expensive), but the eco-loons killed that off.

    That said who would invest in a high-speed, non-stop train service between Gatwick and Heathrow? It would be humongously expensive to build and be subject to more planning objections from Surrey residents than you could shake a stick at. The length of time to get T5 planning permission would pale into insignificance by comparison.
    I'd put a link between the M23 and A23 half way along the nine miles, if only to allow traffic to keep moving slowly when there's a big accident on the motorway. I used to live on the M3 corridor, and I'll guess that during my time in the sandpit the traffic on the M25 between the M40 and M23 hasn't got any better!

    Hyperloop is of course wishful thinking, for a large number of reasons, but we used to do stuff like that in the UK and should be supporting and developing new technology.
  • RobD said:

    dr_spyn said:
    Only one, surely?
    If those figures are correct, then Leadsom may have collected around 85-90 votes.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,102

    If Theresa were to be declared the outright winner tonight/tomorrow, would Cameron leave Downing Street within hours? How quickly would the John Lewis removal vans arrive? God it just doesn't seem real somehow.

    Cameron who?

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,159

    Remain campaigners received 199 votes

    Leave campaigners received 130 votes

    And there's no guarantee that Fox's MPs won't plump for May if asked.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,305
    RobD said:

    dr_spyn said:
    Only one, surely?
    The one was David Cameron.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 27,661
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Liam Fox it up?

    Theresa May looking pretty well unstoppable on these numbers. Surely they won't go for a muppet like Leadsom ahead of someone who's already over 50%? Not to mention the ghastly example of Corbyn being held in front of them?

    I think we're heading for a coronation.

    May's already got a majority of the Parliamentary Party

    It is the membership who decide, not the parliamentary party.
    Yes, but would they really reject such an emphatic verdict? We're not talking about Momentum nutters here.
    Leadsom isn't Corbyn, by any stretch.
  • pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649

    Turns out I'm David Cameron

    Which Tory leadership candidate are you?

    http://thetab.com/uk/2016/07/04/tory-leadership-candidate-6165

    FFS I'm George Osborne!
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    John_M said:

    I think we can assume that Gove will not stand down under any circs.

    Why not?

  • tysontyson Posts: 6,102

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Liam Fox it up?

    Theresa May looking pretty well unstoppable on these numbers. Surely they won't go for a muppet like Leadsom ahead of someone who's already over 50%? Not to mention the ghastly example of Corbyn being held in front of them?

    I think we're heading for a coronation.

    May's already got a majority of the Parliamentary Party

    It is the membership who decide, not the parliamentary party.
    Yes, but would they really reject such an emphatic verdict? We're not talking about Momentum nutters here.
    Leadsom isn't Corbyn, by any stretch.
    Judging by some of the head banging Brexiters around this site, I think they are worse than Momentum.

    Leadsom actually makes Corbyn seem quite electorally appealing.
  • hamiltonacehamiltonace Posts: 653

    rcs1000 said:

    Hasn't the Bank Of England wanted a weaker Sterling for some time? Might a weaker pound help with regard to the global imbalances? Though not if it strengthens the dollar of course.



    Afternoon, Mr. B. Traditionally some industries have called for a lower pound and lower interest rates so that they can export more. In my experience when they have been granted those conditions they have just pocket the difference in sterling earnings, paid them out to directors and shareholder sand carried on with the same volumes and markets.

    Mr. Howl was on here earlier joyful at the new sterling rates as an exporter. I wounder how much effort he will be making to take true advantage of the situation. How many extra salesmen/sales teams does he intend to send overseas to open up new markets for his business or expand his penetration into existing markets. No disrespect to Mr Howl I merely ask.

    Perhaps the same sort of question could be asked by parliamentary select committees of big companies like Rolls Royce and maybe of the Department of BIS, what extra support are they giving to companies to either start exporting or do more of it.

    As a both the owner of an export company and a remain voter I see the drop in the pound as the silver lining to compensate for my disappointment. I spent 10 year doing international sales of medical equipment in Asia, USA, Middle East and Europe. Anyone who thinks you can turn on and off exports like a tap has never traded internationally. It takes years to set up distributors, get approvals, get on tenders and win tenders. Low cost does not on its own win business.

    The reality is that the only way to get Brexit to work is to shift the nation's resources to business and specifically business with international tradeable goods. Korea is a prime example as is Japan. This is already happening by default as the market begins to believe Brexit will occur. Thus you will see FTSE companies share price go up and sterling go down.

    Who are the winners and losers from this. The winners are businessmen engaged in exports or anyone who provides a service that is traded internationally. The losers are anyone who is providing a local service or gets their income mostly from the government.

    Many people who voted Brexit did so on the view that they were happy to take a cut in income to have a less diverse country. Others saw that they were going to be a winner from an insular export dominated country. There are others who did not quite understand what the implications would be.
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Danny Blanchflower has just predicted a house price crash but won't state what the hit will be.We are clearly headed for negative inflation,deflation Japan-style.Interest rates will have to go to zero and even minus.
  • pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649
    chestnut said:

    "But for travelers like Wen Zhihong, from China's western Chengdu, that means lower prices. She had been planning to spend her vacation traveling with her daughter in France and Italy, but said she changed her mind after the vote.

    "Now it seems a better idea to travel to England," Wen, a university official, said. "With the depreciation of the pound, hotels, plane tickets and shopping are all much cheaper."

    Ctrip.com, China's biggest online travel agency, has already sought to capitalize on the surge in interest, arguing this week that a summer vacation in Britain could now be a third cheaper, helping UK searches on its app triple.

    The company put out flyers with a dancing, winking figure in a Union Jack t-shirt, under the slogan, in Chinese, "Brexit: travel on the drop", in reference to the weaker pound. In the background, a weeping figure in a European Union flag waves "bye".

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-travel-searches-idUSKCN0ZD33O

    Hospitality, entertainment and shopping venues will do very well.

    It is remarkable how many Chinese tourists you see in London anyway.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    pbr2013 said:

    Turns out I'm David Cameron

    Which Tory leadership candidate are you?

    http://thetab.com/uk/2016/07/04/tory-leadership-candidate-6165

    FFS I'm George Osborne!
    How on earth did I get Crabb?
This discussion has been closed.