Osborne is probably going to be at the FCO or Home office.
As much as the party has accepted Leave is happening, and the need for the sides to come together, Osborne at FCO would surely be a bit provocative?
I don't know, if I wanted trade deals signed Osborne seems like the kind of person who could make them happen. Persuasive, scheming and altogether a bastard. Now that the issue of Brexit has been settled and we are going to leave, the party will fall in line behind that position.
No. Osborne only does things that benefit himself, his power base and his career. A thoroughly unsuitable person to trust.
Don't disagree, but what damage could he really do at the FCO? Brexit is won and we need to move on. Osborne, like it or not, is one of the party's big beasts, I'd rather have him in the tent than outside the tent. The only other place I can think for him is to take over from Christine Lagarde, but I'm not sure that having just left the EU we could land that position.
Osborne has done immemse damage to careers and trust within the party. He is the reason why able people such as Andrea Leadsom and Dominic Raab were held back and we had people such as Niki Morgan and Amber Rudd promoted instead.
Can anyone think of a more ruthless political double-crossing? I have to say that I can't.
I'd prefer double crossing and straight talking to the gutless display of spinelessness which led to Gordon Brown's coronation.
When I was rugby coaching, if a player wasn't performing I'd tell him he wasn't good enough and drop him. Nine times out of ten that player would always strive to over-perform to get back into the side and prove me wrong.
It was the way I was treated as a player and my players expected the same. It was better for everyone concerned to be brutally honest so we picked the best side. It brought silverware at the end of every season.
Ruthlessness bring success. And we're all still friends.
In politics none of them are friends. So what's the point of keeping one's counsel.
Gove did the right thing for the Tory team.
You sound as though you are assuming that had Gove not run, Johnson would have had the leadership in the bag or at least had a good chance of getting it. I am not convinced that is so.
But the point s good: Bojo really WAS underperforming, very badly, at the worst time. The week after the vote was crucial. He needed to be out there, on TV, visible, and in the Commons, explaining how great it all was, reassuring everyong, being Churchill in the Blitz, cheering us all up. That's his USP.
Yet he vanished, and he vanished so as to conspire. And then he wrote that terrible column, which he then disowned. At the most crucial moment, he was found very badly wanting.
It's a shame, he is a highly clever man. But if he flakes out in tough situations, do we want us leading us during Brexit? Nope.
It won't do. We hoped for Boris, a wonderful cheerful Falstaff with brains. Now we have a choice between a witch and a bespectacled serial killer.
? Leadsom is neither. And she's still in the race.
Yes, she is by far the best of the bunch.
WHY?
1. Massive experience in business management. 2. Brexiter - therefore will be trusted by 2/3 of tory members right from the start. 3. Very strong in the media 4. Financial acumen better than 90% or more of HoC 5. Works well with others. Have a look at this for other thoughts and comparisons http://iaindale.com/posts/2016/06/29/conservative-leadership-runners-riders-andrea-leadsom
Easier to not declare article 50 before we're ready if we're still waiting for the Tories to elect their leader, so better hope this doesn't become a May procession.
Osborne is probably going to be at the FCO or Home office.
As much as the party has accepted Leave is happening, and the need for the sides to come together, Osborne at FCO would surely be a bit provocative?
I don't know, if I wanted trade deals signed Osborne seems like the kind of person who could make them happen. Persuasive, scheming and altogether a bastard. Now that the issue of Brexit has been settled and we are going to leave, the party will fall in line behind that position.
No. Osborne only does things that benefit himself, his power base and his career. A thoroughly unsuitable person to trust.
Don't disagree, but what damage could he really do at the FCO? Brexit is won and we need to move on. Osborne, like it or not, is one of the party's big beasts, I'd rather have him in the tent than outside the tent. The only other place I can think for him is to take over from Christine Lagarde, but I'm not sure that having just left the EU we could land that position.
Osborne has done immemse damage to careers and trust within the party. He is the reason why able people such as Andrea Leadsom and Dominic Raab were held back and we had people such as Niki Morgan and Amber Rudd promoted instead.
Again, I don't disagree with that assessment, but he is still a big power broker within the party, it's better to have him onside and give him a position where he feels he could rebuild his leadership chances if he doesn't fuck it up too badly, but no hands on the levers of power.
Osborne is probably going to be at the FCO or Home office.
As much as the party has accepted Leave is happening, and the need for the sides to come together, Osborne at FCO would surely be a bit provocative?
I don't know, if I wanted trade deals signed Osborne seems like the kind of person who could make them happen. Persuasive, scheming and altogether a bastard. Now that the issue of Brexit has been settled and we are going to leave, the party will fall in line behind that position.
No. Osborne only does things that benefit himself, his power base and his career. A thoroughly unsuitable person to trust.
Don't disagree, but what damage could he really do at the FCO? Brexit is won and we need to move on. Osborne, like it or not, is one of the party's big beasts, I'd rather have him in the tent than outside the tent. The only other place I can think for him is to take over from Christine Lagarde, but I'm not sure that having just left the EU we could land that position.
What is this 'all must have prizes' attitude? Would he not have taken every opportunity to put the boot into anyone who opposed him and his agenda? Why give him one of the great offices of state as some sort of booby prize? I wouldn't trust him washing the dishes in the Westminster cafeteria. Let him try his hand at the private sector - I'm sure there are a million companies dying to hire the 'near perfect' chancellor.
Can anyone think of a more ruthless political double-crossing? I have to say that I can't.
I'd prefer double crossing and straight talking to the gutless display of spinelessness which led to Gordon Brown's coronation.
When I was rugby coaching, if a player wasn't performing I'd tell him he wasn't good enough and drop him. Nine times out of ten that player would always strive to over-perform to get back into the side and prove me wrong.
It was the way I was treated as a player and my players expected the same. It was better for everyone concerned to be brutally honest so we picked the best side. It brought silverware at the end of every season.
Ruthlessness bring success. And we're all still friends.
In politics none of them are friends. So what's the point of keeping one's counsel.
Gove did the right thing for the Tory team.
You sound as though you are assuming that had Gove not run, Johnson would have had the leadership in the bag or at least had a good chance of getting it. I am not convinced that is so.
But the point s good: Bojo really WAS underperforming, very badly, at the worst time. The week after the vote was crucial. He needed to be out there, on TV, visible, and in the Commons, explaining how great it all was, reassuring everyong, being Churchill in the Blitz, cheering us all up. That's his USP.
Yet he vanished, and he vanished so as to conspire. And then he wrote that terrible column, which he then disowned. At the most crucial moment, he was found very badly wanting.
It's a shame, he is a highly clever man. But if he flakes out in tough situations, do we want us leading us during Brexit? Nope.
It won't do. We hoped for Boris, a wonderful cheerful Falstaff with brains. Now we have a choice between a witch and a bespectacled serial killer.
? Leadsom is neither. And she's still in the race.
Yes, she is by far the best of the bunch.
WHY?
1. Massive experience in business management. 2. Brexiter - therefore will be trusted by 2/3 of tory members right from the start. 3. Very strong in the media 4. Financial acumen better than 90% or more of HoC 5. Works well with others. Have a look at this for other thoughts and comparisons http://iaindale.com/posts/2016/06/29/conservative-leadership-runners-riders-andrea-leadsom
A chum has just reminded me that both May and Mrs Merkel are the daughters of clergymen. Neither Catholics I hasten to add.
Lord Hersham might you venture a few numbers for the first round voting?
May - 50%+
Really tricky one that, and without access to the House of Peers (Dave's resignation honours surely!!), and attendant hostelries, can only venture a guess.
Hmm, perhaps 40%, a smidgen higher, would have thought 50% on first ballot is too ambitious a hurdle.
About 140 then.
I'm going for a bolder 160. Victory has many parents whereas Gove should be a f*cking orphan.
I'm astonished that Gove stabbed Boris in the back.
The only winner from this is sure to be May and Leasdom. But the bigger long term winner will be Corbyn if he manages to remain Labour leader.
There is no one to lead the Tories to victory in the next GE. Boris was the only one who could.
Despite 8 years as the figurehead of London, Boris has been exposed today as a naif. Anybody that easily taken in has no place at the top job in governing this country.
However, Gove has blown his cover - and so will now be no use at all in negotiating with the EU either.
Osborne is probably going to be at the FCO or Home office.
As much as the party has accepted Leave is happening, and the need for the sides to come together, Osborne at FCO would surely be a bit provocative?
I don't know, if I wanted trade deals signed Osborne seems like the kind of person who could make them happen. Persuasive, scheming and altogether a bastard. Now that the issue of Brexit has been settled and we are going to leave, the party will fall in line behind that position.
No. Osborne only does things that benefit himself, his power base and his career. A thoroughly unsuitable person to trust.
Don't disagree, but what damage could he really do at the FCO? Brexit is won and we need to move on. Osborne, like it or not, is one of the party's big beasts, I'd rather have him in the tent than outside the tent. The only other place I can think for him is to take over from Christine Lagarde, but I'm not sure that having just left the EU we could land that position.
What is this 'all must have prizes' attitude? Would he not have taken every opportunity to put the boot into anyone who opposed him and his agenda? Why give him one of the great offices of state as some sort of booby prize? I wouldn't trust him washing the dishes in the Westminster cafeteria. Let him try his hand at the private sector - I'm sure there are a million companies dying to hire the 'near perfect' chancellor.
Because right now, more than anything else, we need party unity to get the Brexit vote through Parliament. We can't have Osborne and his backers sitting on the back benches causing trouble.
A good recruit for Leadsom - by an influential back bencher.
"6.00: Steve Baker, one of the leading Leave MPs and former Boris backer, has announced his support for Andrea Leadsom’s leadership bid. This could be a big boost for her campaign’s chances of consolidating the support of Leave MPs – especially with so many now ill-disposed towards Gove." ConHome
Great works are going to be produced in future generations about the events of the last week. It has been utterly compelling drama with the most extraordinary twists.
Should 172 MPs be able to subvert the will of the 500,000 party members
Yes or No
No
Yes. We elect representatives to take decisions on our behalf, not to commit us to a course of action from what might have been years ago, when the situation may have changed dramatically, particualrly when the win of those members cannot be assumed to be the same now as it was then (though it could be so).
Those 172 MPs are in parliament to serve their constituents.
Yes they are - and it is their responsibility to decide how best to serve their constituents, and if their constituents don't like how they do it they can vote them out. There is no way for them to reliably know what would be most popular with the majority of their constituents, and even if they did, that might not be what was best for them.
My Lab MP genuinely thought Kendall would win leadership election in 2015. His excitable tweets as her odds fell in the early days were laughable. Mind you he was running her campaign.
Same last week with EU
I have come to the conclusion maybe his judgement isnt very good
That may be so - nothing to say our MPs are chosen by their parties for their judgement.
Think going from Benn to Toby shows Chesterfield CLP must have changed somewhat
As was going from Eric Varley to Benn!
Well aye.
I remember going from Swain to Barnes next door too, similar I suppose
What are the chances for promotion of this lot? Nick Boles, Rory Stewart, Greg Clark and Jo Johnson?
Rory Stewart and Jo Johnson yes. The other two please god no.
Why not? I thought they were amongst the more cerebral MPs?
Boles and Clark are wets and close to Lib Dems in their political views. Boles once floated having a coalition party at GE2015 and Clark once wrote that Polly's views on poverty action made sense....
Osborne is probably going to be at the FCO or Home office.
As much as the party has accepted Leave is happening, and the need for the sides to come together, Osborne at FCO would surely be a bit provocative?
I don't know, if I wanted trade deals signed Osborne seems like the kind of person who could make them happen. Persuasive, scheming and altogether a bastard. Now that the issue of Brexit has been settled and we are going to leave, the party will fall in line behind that position.
No. Osborne only does things that benefit himself, his power base and his career. A thoroughly unsuitable person to trust.
Don't disagree, but what damage could he really do at the FCO? Brexit is won and we need to move on. Osborne, like it or not, is one of the party's big beasts, I'd rather have him in the tent than outside the tent. The only other place I can think for him is to take over from Christine Lagarde, but I'm not sure that having just left the EU we could land that position.
Osborne has done immemse damage to careers and trust within the party. He is the reason why able people such as Andrea Leadsom and Dominic Raab were held back and we had people such as Niki Morgan and Amber Rudd promoted instead.
Again, I don't disagree with that assessment, but he is still a big power broker within the party, it's better to have him onside and give him a position where he feels he could rebuild his leadership chances if he doesn't fuck it up too badly, but no hands on the levers of power.
Needs to have his political carrer buried 6 feet down and lain face down and told to dig down further.
May must surely be hot favourite to win the MPs ballot by a wide margin.
If it's May v Leadsom then May just says:
"We need someone with experience ready to do the job from Day 1. I have that and I have the support of most Con MPs".
Con members are a conservative lot and the above will be enough on its own for them to back her v Leadsom.
You'd think so, wouldn't you? But how many times has the favourite not then been elected.
Her biggest problem is that she didn't back Leave. If Gove can knife Boris he's perfectly capable of doing the same to Theresa May. Was it all a plot just to back Leadsom?
Osborne is probably going to be at the FCO or Home office.
As much as the party has accepted Leave is happening, and the need for the sides to come together, Osborne at FCO would surely be a bit provocative?
I don't know, if I wanted trade deals signed Osborne seems like the kind of person who could make them happen. Persuasive, scheming and altogether a bastard. Now that the issue of Brexit has been settled and we are going to leave, the party will fall in line behind that position.
No. Osborne only does things that benefit himself, his power base and his career. A thoroughly unsuitable person to trust.
Don't disagree, but what damage could he really do at the FCO? Brexit is won and we need to move on. Osborne, like it or not, is one of the party's big beasts, I'd rather have him in the tent than outside the tent. The only other place I can think for him is to take over from Christine Lagarde, but I'm not sure that having just left the EU we could land that position.
Osborne has done immemse damage to careers and trust within the party. He is the reason why able people such as Andrea Leadsom and Dominic Raab were held back and we had people such as Niki Morgan and Amber Rudd promoted instead.
Agreed. There is some extraordinary talent on the Tory benches. Not the most 'on-message' talent, granted, so I can understand why Osborne, who likes control, would've been apprehensive. But the benches are packed with free-thinkers and clever bastards. The likes of Raab, Leadsom, Atkins, Jonny Mercer and Jeremy Quin are just a few of the super-talented.
Unlike many here, I would like to see a centre ground Labour party doing well. But with Unite (particularly McCluskey) holding so much sway over candidate selection and weeding out non-believers, I think it can only do serious harm to the party over the long term.
I wouldn't say Labour's parliamentary party is talentless, by a long way. But it pales into comparison against the Tory benches at present. Just as the Tory party paled into comparison against the Labour party during the noughties.
Easier to not declare article 50 before we're ready if we're still waiting for the Tories to elect their leader, so better hope this doesn't become a May procession.
There must be a possibility that this is all over by the end of the month with May as PM
Osborne is probably going to be at the FCO or Home office.
As much as the party has accepted Leave is happening, and the need for the sides to come together, Osborne at FCO would surely be a bit provocative?
I don't know, if I wanted trade deals signed Osborne seems like the kind of person who could make them happen. Persuasive, scheming and altogether a bastard. Now that the issue of Brexit has been settled and we are going to leave, the party will fall in line behind that position.
No. Osborne only does things that benefit himself, his power base and his career. A thoroughly unsuitable person to trust.
Don't disagree, but what damage could he really do at the FCO? Brexit is won and we need to move on. Osborne, like it or not, is one of the party's big beasts, I'd rather have him in the tent than outside the tent. The only other place I can think for him is to take over from Christine Lagarde, but I'm not sure that having just left the EU we could land that position.
What is this 'all must have prizes' attitude? Would he not have taken every opportunity to put the boot into anyone who opposed him and his agenda? Why give him one of the great offices of state as some sort of booby prize? I wouldn't trust him washing the dishes in the Westminster cafeteria. Let him try his hand at the private sector - I'm sure there are a million companies dying to hire the 'near perfect' chancellor.
Because right now, more than anything else, we need party unity to get the Brexit vote through Parliament. We can't have Osborne and his backers sitting on the back benches causing trouble.
I must be behind - Brexit vote?
So far as I'm aware, no-one likes Osborne. Not Brexiters, not remainers, not left wingers, not the Scottish, not the metro types. Keeping him would be an act of self-harm.
Blue Nun, interwebs, fleecebook, hashtag sadmaonatrain, OMIGODISTHATHAIR, pointless discussion, media gueststar opining, woman from minor party says words, iterate until dead.
Delicious to see so many Tory MPs sitting in the room expecting Boris to announce the start of his campaign and be disappointed without any warning whatsoever.
Things would get interesting if Gove pulls out and backs Leadsom.
Great. Knifes Boris and then walks away.
Some reports that he's having trouble adding MPs to his current total.
Boris had 100 MP's on his side just before Gove knifed him. The Remainers are not going to support Gove, that leaves just 40 MP's that might back Gove, but since Leasdom is a far better option with clean hands why should they?
Feel a bit sorry for Boris today but think Gove's judgement of him is probably about right. Heseltine's comments on Boris were outrageous. His bitterness about Brexit was palpable.
I don't see Gove winning the leadership as rightly or wrongly his "betrayal" of Boris will have made him some enemies. Mind you, did not Blair do in Brown in a similarish way? Gove will however be an excellent Minister for Brexit.
What happened to Eagle's 3pm statement? Did it happen and if she stands as leader will she be deselected?
Feel a bit sorry for Boris today but think Gove's judgement of him is probably about right. Heseltine's comments on Boris were outrageous. His bitterness about Brexit was palpable.
I don't see Gove winning the leadership as rightly or wrongly his "betrayal" of Boris will have made him some enemies. Mind you, did not Blair do in Brown in a similarish way? Gove will however be an excellent Minister for Brexit.
What happened to Eagle's 3pm statement? Did it happen and if she stands as leader will she be deselected?
So many questions!
Angela Eagle bottled it.
Dan Hodges tweeting furiously in some weird attempt to make Corbyn quit.
I'm astonished that Gove stabbed Boris in the back.
The only winner from this is sure to be May and Leasdom. But the bigger long term winner will be Corbyn if he manages to remain Labour leader.
There is no one to lead the Tories to victory in the next GE. Boris was the only one who could.
Nah, Gove seems to have said out loud what I’ve thought for yonks, Boris wasn’t up to it.
Gove is not up to it.
Leasdom seems to be the default option for Leavers, she is the one who has the most value.
But none of those running are vote winners. Labour are the only winners provided they keep their heads together.
Bollocks.
May will do a better job than Johnson as PM. And I say that as someone who likes Boris.
The country needs reassuring at the moment. Boris may have been a fine PM, may yet be in a decade's time, who knows. But reassuring he aint. Can you imagine the markets reacting to one of his off-the-cuff jokes, perhaps about selling all the gold or something?
Mr. Viewcode, I agree it can be samey sometimes (or could, years since I watched regularly) but Neil's a very sharp chap, and Portillo was often insightful too. Diane Abbott was also on the programme.
Mr. Viewcode, I agree it can be samey sometimes (or could, years since I watched regularly) but Neil's a very sharp chap, and Portillo was often insightful too. Diane Abbott was also on the programme.
Feel a bit sorry for Boris today but think Gove's judgement of him is probably about right. Heseltine's comments on Boris were outrageous. His bitterness about Brexit was palpable.
I don't see Gove winning the leadership as rightly or wrongly his "betrayal" of Boris will have made him some enemies. Mind you, did not Blair do in Brown in a similarish way? Gove will however be an excellent Minister for Brexit.
What happened to Eagle's 3pm statement? Did it happen and if she stands as leader will she be deselected?
So many questions!
If May or Leadsom end up as PM, Boris could have time to comeback in 5+ years. He probably needs to knuckle down into a cabinet job - could be a department or Party Chairman. Rebuilding the party would do wonders for his chances as the PM after this one. The question is how badly does he want to be PM?
Incidentally I rather suspect Gove is standing because Boris realised he would be humiliated, not the other way around. Gove has less chance than Boris but he can afford to be the hopeless loser.
May will make the final two but I'm not sure she'll win overall, as she is while long serving not necessarily an effective HS (although arguably a successful Home Secretary is one that isn't in the middle of a giant scandal every five minutes).
Fox will come last. Leadsom is still very junior. Neither are worth risking money on.
That makes Crabb a value bet. Whether he'll win or even if he'd be any good is another question, but there's definitely value there.
@OwenJones84: No-one who supported the Iraq war will ever become Labour leader. Again, I don't know why this isn't completely self-evident and obvious.
Incidentally I rather suspect Gove is standing because Boris realised he would be humiliated, not the other way around. Gove has less chance than Boris but he can afford to be the hopeless loser.
May will make the final two but I'm not sure she'll win overall, as she is while long serving not necessarily an effective HS (although arguably a successful Home Secretary is one that isn't in the middle of a giant scandal every five minutes).
Fox will come last. Leadsom is still very junior. Neither are worth risking money on.
That makes Crabb a value bet. Whether he'll win or even if he'd be any good is another question, but there's definitely value there.
ydoethur. Are you suggesting that Gove and Boris agreed to what's happened today? I don't buy that.
Blue Nun, interwebs, fleecebook, hashtag sadmaonatrain, OMIGODISTHATHAIR, pointless discussion, media gueststar opining, woman from minor party says words, iterate until dead.
Feel a bit sorry for Boris today but think Gove's judgement of him is probably about right. Heseltine's comments on Boris were outrageous. His bitterness about Brexit was palpable.
I don't see Gove winning the leadership as rightly or wrongly his "betrayal" of Boris will have made him some enemies. Mind you, did not Blair do in Brown in a similarish way? Gove will however be an excellent Minister for Brexit.
What happened to Eagle's 3pm statement? Did it happen and if she stands as leader will she be deselected?
So many questions!
If May or Leadsom end up as PM, Boris could have time to comeback in 5+ years. He probably needs to knuckle down into a cabinet job - could be a department or Party Chairman. Rebuilding the party would do wonders for his chances as the PM after this one. The question is how badly does he want to be PM?
Feel a bit sorry for Boris today but think Gove's judgement of him is probably about right. Heseltine's comments on Boris were outrageous. His bitterness about Brexit was palpable.
I don't see Gove winning the leadership as rightly or wrongly his "betrayal" of Boris will have made him some enemies. Mind you, did not Blair do in Brown in a similarish way? Gove will however be an excellent Minister for Brexit.
What happened to Eagle's 3pm statement? Did it happen and if she stands as leader will she be deselected?
So many questions!
Angela Eagle bottled it.
Dan Hodges tweeting furiously in some weird attempt to make Corbyn quit.
When will the Labour PLP listen to people for a change, if they thought the answer to Jeremy Corbyn is Angela Eagle they where out of their minds*.
*There is plenty of evidence in the past year that indeed they may be out of their minds.
Blue Nun, interwebs, fleecebook, hashtag sadmaonatrain, OMIGODISTHATHAIR, pointless discussion, media gueststar opining, woman from minor party says words, iterate until dead.
Mr. Doethur, I do wonder about Crabb and whether he might get it.
Mr. Speedy, Corbyn's electoral kryptonite. Even if you think a Conservative leader would be worse on an individual basis, look at how over 80% of the PLP has no confidence in Corbyn. How can a man who can't win over his own MPs seek to win over the country?
Afternoon folks. Since I last posted around this time last week when I suggested Leave were still very much in it based on the nature and quantity of hitherto previously unseen voters turning up at my local polling station I see there have been a few minor developments. In the latest I have to say I have no idea how Tory members will react. However personally I am far from impressed by Gove's behaviour and my vote together with in all probabilty the other two members of my immediate family who are members of the Tory party will now go to Leadsom in the admittedly unlikely event she makes it to the final run-off.
Feel a bit sorry for Boris today but think Gove's judgement of him is probably about right. Heseltine's comments on Boris were outrageous. His bitterness about Brexit was palpable.
I don't see Gove winning the leadership as rightly or wrongly his "betrayal" of Boris will have made him some enemies. Mind you, did not Blair do in Brown in a similarish way? Gove will however be an excellent Minister for Brexit.
What happened to Eagle's 3pm statement? Did it happen and if she stands as leader will she be deselected?
So many questions!
If May or Leadsom end up as PM, Boris could have time to comeback in 5+ years. He probably needs to knuckle down into a cabinet job - could be a department or Party Chairman. Rebuilding the party would do wonders for his chances as the PM after this one. The question is how badly does he want to be PM?
Should have stayed as mayor. much better fit.
Boris has a huge international following - his Weibo (Chinese social network) has millions of followers. He could be of great use to the country in an international capacity.
Incidentally I rather suspect Gove is standing because Boris realised he would be humiliated, not the other way around. Gove has less chance than Boris but he can afford to be the hopeless loser.
May will make the final two but I'm not sure she'll win overall, as she is while long serving not necessarily an effective HS (although arguably a successful Home Secretary is one that isn't in the middle of a giant scandal every five minutes).
Fox will come last. Leadsom is still very junior. Neither are worth risking money on.
That makes Crabb a value bet. Whether he'll win or even if he'd be any good is another question, but there's definitely value there.
ydoethur. Are you suggesting that Gove and Boris agreed to what's happened today? I don't buy that.
I don't know, because I don't know what's happened. Gove is Machiavellian enough to knife someone who had already decided to withdraw in the belief that it would win him popularity by posing as the man standing for the sake of the nation after being reluctantly convinced nobody else is up to it. He's also misguided enough to believe people will buy it.
It would be entirely typical of the way he behaved towards teachers, indeed.
He's furious with Gove. Now supporting May. Essentially says the perception, if not the firm reality is that Gove knifed Boris and will not be forgiven. "Undergraduate politics"
Feel a bit sorry for Boris today but think Gove's judgement of him is probably about right. Heseltine's comments on Boris were outrageous. His bitterness about Brexit was palpable.
I don't see Gove winning the leadership as rightly or wrongly his "betrayal" of Boris will have made him some enemies. Mind you, did not Blair do in Brown in a similarish way? Gove will however be an excellent Minister for Brexit.
What happened to Eagle's 3pm statement? Did it happen and if she stands as leader will she be deselected?
So many questions!
If May or Leadsom end up as PM, Boris could have time to comeback in 5+ years. He probably needs to knuckle down into a cabinet job - could be a department or Party Chairman. Rebuilding the party would do wonders for his chances as the PM after this one. The question is how badly does he want to be PM?
Should have stayed as mayor. much better fit.
Boris has a huge international following - his Weibo (Chinese social network) has millions of followers. He could be of great use to the country in an international capacity.
Feel a bit sorry for Boris today but think Gove's judgement of him is probably about right. Heseltine's comments on Boris were outrageous. His bitterness about Brexit was palpable.
I don't see Gove winning the leadership as rightly or wrongly his "betrayal" of Boris will have made him some enemies. Mind you, did not Blair do in Brown in a similarish way? Gove will however be an excellent Minister for Brexit.
What happened to Eagle's 3pm statement? Did it happen and if she stands as leader will she be deselected?
So many questions!
Angela Eagle bottled it.
Dan Hodges tweeting furiously in some weird attempt to make Corbyn quit.
When will the Labour PLP listen to people for a change, if they thought the answer to Jeremy Corbyn is Angela Eagle they where out of their minds*.
*There is plenty of evidence in the past year that indeed they may be out of their minds.
Why are they PLP apparently terrified of democracy. 5 days and counting.
We have crossover on Betfair. Leadsom now ahead of Gove. Probably caused by the reports of Gove struggling to find any new MPs to support his campaign.
Hmm. Gove is 21 to finish last in the first round [Ladbrokes], but Leadsom's just 8. Given they're apparently at similar levels of support, and the opprobrium being heaped upon Gove, might that be value (Fox, of course, is probably favourite to come last).
This MP race could be down to two by Friday of next week. We have two (possibly Fox and Crabb) come near the bottom on Tuesday, 1 forced out the other gives up and then on Thursday the 3rd challenger eliminated.
He's furious with Gove. Now supporting May. Essentially says the perception, if not the firm reality is that Gove knifed Boris and will not be forgiven. "Undergraduate politics"
May sits back and smiles ....
Defamatory statement.
No undergraduates would have come up with this mess,
Incidentally I rather suspect Gove is standing because Boris realised he would be humiliated, not the other way around. Gove has less chance than Boris but he can afford to be the hopeless loser.
May will make the final two but I'm not sure she'll win overall, as she is while long serving not necessarily an effective HS (although arguably a successful Home Secretary is one that isn't in the middle of a giant scandal every five minutes).
Fox will come last. Leadsom is still very junior. Neither are worth risking money on.
That makes Crabb a value bet. Whether he'll win or even if he'd be any good is another question, but there's definitely value there.
ydoethur. Are you suggesting that Gove and Boris agreed to what's happened today? I don't buy that.
I don't know, because I don't know what's happened. Gove is Machiavellian enough to knife someone who had already decided to withdraw in the belief that it would win him popularity by posing as the man standing for the sake of the nation after being reluctantly convinced nobody else is up to it. He's also misguided enough to believe people will buy it.
It would be entirely typical of the way he behaved towards teachers, indeed.
I find it more plausible that 'the powers that be' have told both Gove and Boris to stop playing silly buggers with this democratic insurgency nonsense, and this is a way they can pretty much rule each other out whilst making it all look realistic. Both of them look cowed.
O/T, but is Farron the right man to lead the Lib Dems into the next election? A Clegg comeback might make them look more credible than the alternatives.
Mr. Garner, she either bottled it or the PLP bottled supporting her.
Labour should sub-contract regicide to the Conservatives.
Yet again, for the hard of hearing: there is no mechanism for the PLP to knife Corbyn, other by cranking up the pressure. The rules are bonkers. The strategy is right.
Mr. Glenn, the Lib Dems would be better off with Lamb. Clegg may still be seen as tainted (hard for me to judge that, wasn't a Lib Dem voter so I never felt betrayed, as some appeared to).
O/T, but is Farron the right man to lead the Lib Dems into the next election? A Clegg comeback might make them look more credible than the alternatives.
Ex Conservative members are joining us I can assure you.
Mr. Speedy, as a unilateralist friend of Hamas becomes Labour's candidate for PM, one suspect the electorate may turn away from Labour.
Well the last poll had Labour and Tories on 32% each, and not much evidence from By-elections of any turning away.
Anyway the poll in mind had a Boris lead Tory party with a 34-29 lead over Labour. May was doing worse but Osborne was by far the worst option with Labour in a clear lead.
Theresa May has too much baggage from her record as Home Secretary to be popular in the GE, and the polls show it. The Tories need someone who can deliver victory in the next GE, and May is too unpopular for that.
Mr. Glenn, the Lib Dems would be better off with Lamb. Clegg may still be seen as tainted (hard for me to judge that, wasn't a Lib Dem voter so I never felt betrayed, as some appeared to).
Unnoticed is the split in that Lamb wants the referendum vote to be respected and Farron is pledging to take us back into the EU. Democrats vs Europhiles.
O/T, but is Farron the right man to lead the Lib Dems into the next election? A Clegg comeback might make them look more credible than the alternatives.
I can't see it. I actually like Clegg, I feel he made choices that seemed right at the time, made hard decisions, and put himself out there in an attempt to persuade people he was correct. I feel like history will judge him more kindly, despite the LDs being crushed under his watch. But as was the case for years up to 2015, he became a joke. Fairly or not, no one would give him any benefit, of the doubt or otherwise, and they still won't, particularly as it doesn't seem like what's left of the party would want to even tip toe toward the place they were in ideologically when Clegg was in charge.
Mr. Speedy, as a unilateralist friend of Hamas becomes Labour's candidate for PM, one suspect the electorate may turn away from Labour.
Well the last poll had Labour and Tories on 32% each, and not much evidence from By-elections of any turning away.
Anyway the poll in mind had a Boris lead Tory party with a 34-29 lead over Labour. May was doing worse but Osborne was by far the worst option with Labour in a clear lead.
Theresa May has too much baggage from her record as Home Secretary to be popular in the GE, and the polls show it. The Tories need someone who can deliver victory in the next GE, and May is too unpopular for that.
Anybody who believes Corbyn can win a GE is totally insane. Some of those Conservative candidates (such as Fox and Gove) may struggle to win an election outright, but none of them will actually lose to a man who has 0 leadership skills. As with Ed Miliband, this will become astoundingly evident to British public with the more attention and publicity he gets. Corbyn's views on foreign policy, immigration, welfare at the very least will ensure signification sections of the electorate have no time for him whatsoever. Fact is, the British public have shown in the event a very Right-wing candidate faces a very Left-wing (tbh, I should say very incompetent because Corbyn's socialism is the least offensive thing about him) they will pick the former. This is, after all a small c Conservative country (which is something I'm not happy about but there you go). Given that we have an aging population and young people can't be bothered to vote, this is only going to be more so the case in the future. It's time for the Labour party, and really, the Labour party membership to face up to that fact and actually get a candidate in who can win GEs.
Comments
The other two please god no.
The only winner from this is sure to be May and Leasdom.
But the bigger long term winner will be Corbyn if he manages to remain Labour leader.
There is no one to lead the Tories to victory in the next GE.
Boris was the only one who could.
I'm going for a bolder 160. Victory has many parents whereas Gove should be a f*cking orphan.
Edit - May 75 Others 53
However, Gove has blown his cover - and so will now be no use at all in negotiating with the EU either.
A week has been a very long time in politics.
"6.00: Steve Baker, one of the leading Leave MPs and former Boris backer, has announced his support for Andrea Leadsom’s leadership bid. This could be a big boost for her campaign’s chances of consolidating the support of Leave MPs – especially with so many now ill-disposed towards Gove." ConHome
If it's May v Leadsom then May just says:
"We need someone with experience ready to do the job from Day 1. I have that and I have the support of most Con MPs".
Con members are a conservative lot and the above will be enough on its own for them to back her v Leadsom.
I remember going from Swain to Barnes next door too, similar I suppose
Incidentally, F1 resumes tomorrow. Ferrari are testing a new titanium version of the halo.
Her biggest problem is that she didn't back Leave. If Gove can knife Boris he's perfectly capable of doing the same to Theresa May. Was it all a plot just to back Leadsom?
Unlike many here, I would like to see a centre ground Labour party doing well. But with Unite (particularly McCluskey) holding so much sway over candidate selection and weeding out non-believers, I think it can only do serious harm to the party over the long term.
I wouldn't say Labour's parliamentary party is talentless, by a long way. But it pales into comparison against the Tory benches at present. Just as the Tory party paled into comparison against the Labour party during the noughties.
So far as I'm aware, no-one likes Osborne. Not Brexiters, not remainers, not left wingers, not the Scottish, not the metro types. Keeping him would be an act of self-harm.
Leasdom seems to be the default option for Leavers, she is the one who has the most value.
But none of those running are vote winners.
Labour are the only winners provided they keep their heads together.
May will do a better job than Johnson as PM. And I say that as someone who likes Boris.
The Remainers are not going to support Gove, that leaves just 40 MP's that might back Gove, but since Leasdom is a far better option with clean hands why should they?
I don't see Gove winning the leadership as rightly or wrongly his "betrayal" of Boris will have made him some enemies. Mind you, did not Blair do in Brown in a similarish way? Gove will however be an excellent Minister for Brexit.
What happened to Eagle's 3pm statement? Did it happen and if she stands as leader will she be deselected?
So many questions!
Dan Hodges tweeting furiously in some weird attempt to make Corbyn quit.
Labour should sub-contract regicide to the Conservatives.
If I remember Theresa May didn't do very well against Corbyn.
Incidentally I rather suspect Gove is standing because Boris realised he would be humiliated, not the other way around. Gove has less chance than Boris but he can afford to be the hopeless loser.
May will make the final two but I'm not sure she'll win overall, as she is while long serving not necessarily an effective HS (although arguably a successful Home Secretary is one that isn't in the middle of a giant scandal every five minutes).
Fox will come last. Leadsom is still very junior. Neither are worth risking money on.
That makes Crabb a value bet. Whether he'll win or even if he'd be any good is another question, but there's definitely value there.
*There is plenty of evidence in the past year that indeed they may be out of their minds.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.101193124
Mr. Speedy, Corbyn's electoral kryptonite. Even if you think a Conservative leader would be worse on an individual basis, look at how over 80% of the PLP has no confidence in Corbyn. How can a man who can't win over his own MPs seek to win over the country?
(good evening, everybody)
It would be entirely typical of the way he behaved towards teachers, indeed.
May sits back and smiles ....
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-corbyn-labour-leadership-latest-constituency-chiefs-councillors-back-leader-a7111021.html
Why are they PLP apparently terrified of democracy. 5 days and counting.
Betting PostHmm. Gove is 21 to finish last in the first round [Ladbrokes], but Leadsom's just 8. Given they're apparently at similar levels of support, and the opprobrium being heaped upon Gove, might that be value (Fox, of course, is probably favourite to come last).
No undergraduates would have come up with this mess,
& No we're not pissing around with the leadership
Anyway the poll in mind had a Boris lead Tory party with a 34-29 lead over Labour.
May was doing worse but Osborne was by far the worst option with Labour in a clear lead.
Theresa May has too much baggage from her record as Home Secretary to be popular in the GE, and the polls show it.
The Tories need someone who can deliver victory in the next GE, and May is too unpopular for that.
I did suggest they either split or have a separate PLP leader some months ago.
Presumably one Leave candidate will make the Final 2 - 140 MPs backed Leave.
It seems almost inconceivable that Crabb will get more MPs than May - the whole "Cameron establishment" is going to back May.