Mr. Speedy, as a unilateralist friend of Hamas becomes Labour's candidate for PM, one suspect the electorate may turn away from Labour.
Well the last poll had Labour and Tories on 32% each, and not much evidence from By-elections of any turning away.
Anyway the poll in mind had a Boris lead Tory party with a 34-29 lead over Labour. May was doing worse but Osborne was by far the worst option with Labour in a clear lead.
Theresa May has too much baggage from her record as Home Secretary to be popular in the GE, and the polls show it. The Tories need someone who can deliver victory in the next GE, and May is too unpopular for that.
She's only vulnerable if Labour can get rid of the Corbynite left. Otherwise she'll win with a majority of 60-100.
Incidentally I rather suspect Gove is standing because Boris realised he would be humiliated, not the other way around. Gove has less chance than Boris but he can afford to be the hopeless loser.
May will make the final two but I'm not sure she'll win overall, as she is while long serving not necessarily an effective HS (although arguably a successful Home Secretary is one that isn't in the middle of a giant scandal every five minutes).
Fox will come last. Leadsom is still very junior. Neither are worth risking money on.
That makes Crabb a value bet. Whether he'll win or even if he'd be any good is another question, but there's definitely value there.
ydoethur. Are you suggesting that Gove and Boris agreed to what's happened today? I don't buy that.
I don't know, because I don't know what's happened. Gove is Machiavellian enough to knife someone who had already decided to withdraw in the belief that it would win him popularity by posing as the man standing for the sake of the nation after being reluctantly convinced nobody else is up to it. He's also misguided enough to believe people will buy it.
It would be entirely typical of the way he behaved towards teachers, indeed.
I find it more plausible that 'the powers that be' have told both Gove and Boris to stop playing silly buggers with this democratic insurgency nonsense, and this is a way they can pretty much rule each other out whilst making it all look realistic. Both of them look cowed.
Both of them look like idiots.
But that's not very difficult, as they are idiots.
Boris was the darling of the party to many, if not considered a PM. Gove's dirty deed will rebound horribly. The carefully crafted man of principle is shown to be just another grubby hack.
Worse are the constant and various replays of his absolute denials of PM ambitions. "I'm not up to it" .... Rinse and repeat from his rivals.
I think there's also a possibility of a coronation by accident/default as May piles up the votes and the other four contenders vie for a small share of a diminishing pie as the voting rounds progress.
Mr. Glenn, the Lib Dems would be better off with Lamb. Clegg may still be seen as tainted (hard for me to judge that, wasn't a Lib Dem voter so I never felt betrayed, as some appeared to).
Unnoticed is the split in that Lamb wants the referendum vote to be respected and Farron is pledging to take us back into the EU. Democrats vs Europhiles.
The split you've just describe does not match the label you give it. Farron is, as I understood it, pledging to run on a manifesto commitment to take us back into the EU. Now, that position is not going to win a majority, but if it did, that would be a democratic outcome. Unless he's changed tune and is now saying we shouldn't leave in the first place.
Surely it going to be one REMAINER - May or Crabb and one LEAVER - Gove, Leadsom or Fox. It that's correct the final should be May v Gove or Leadsom. Given Gove's act of treachery today it seems to me it will end up as May v Leadsom.
Boris was the darling of the party to many, if not considered a PM. Gove's dirty deed will rebound horribly. The carefully crafted man of principle is shown to be just another grubby hack.
Worse are the constant and various replays of his absolute denials of PM ambitions. "I'm not up to it" .... Rinse and repeat from his rivals.
I think there's also a possibility of a coronation by accident/default as May piles up the votes and the other four contenders vie for a small share of a diminishing pie as the voting rounds progress.
O/T, but is Farron the right man to lead the Lib Dems into the next election? A Clegg comeback might make them look more credible than the alternatives.
& No we're not pissing around with the leadership
Making a play for the Blue Liberals that disappeared to the Cameroons?
I don't even think most of the GBP know who May is, let alone are extensively aware of her record as Home Secretary. A vast majority of people find politics to be the most boring thing ever, and aside from the PM and Chancellor, most politicians are not recognisable to them.
Feel a bit sorry for Boris today but think Gove's judgement of him is probably about right. Heseltine's comments on Boris were outrageous. His bitterness about Brexit was palpable.
I don't see Gove winning the leadership as rightly or wrongly his "betrayal" of Boris will have made him some enemies. Mind you, did not Blair do in Brown in a similarish way? Gove will however be an excellent Minister for Brexit.
What happened to Eagle's 3pm statement? Did it happen and if she stands as leader will she be deselected?
So many questions!
Angela Eagle bottled it.
Dan Hodges tweeting furiously in some weird attempt to make Corbyn quit.
When will the Labour PLP listen to people for a change, if they thought the answer to Jeremy Corbyn is Angela Eagle they where out of their minds*.
*There is plenty of evidence in the past year that indeed they may be out of their minds.
Why are they PLP apparently terrified of democracy. 5 days and counting.
O/T, but is Farron the right man to lead the Lib Dems into the next election? A Clegg comeback might make them look more credible than the alternatives.
& No we're not pissing around with the leadership
Making a play for the Blue Liberals that disappeared to the Cameroons?
Yep - big appeal to the "48" from Tim Farron. I signed up on Friday, obviously not everyone is going to agree on everyone but that's true of all political parties.
Very close to the 5pt lead Republicans need to win the college.
Rasmussen is by far the most consistently pro-Republican pollster. In fact you should just straight up move 5 from Trump to Clinton and work from there.
May be mileage for Farron in being pro-EU, but soon that ship will have sailed.
At the moment pitching for the pro-EU stance can be seen as a ploy to be #wearethe48.
Take away Remainers who see no point in carrying on the fight, take away some more if things don't go to hell and it doesn't seem so bad, take away Scotland which will be gone before too long, and then take away more who wanted so badly to remain but see rejoining as too difficult or unpalatable given the additional demands that would come, even if the EU was amendable, and maybe you could still have a core of 15%.
Which would be better than their current core of 5%, so may still be worth it.
Boris was the darling of the party to many, if not considered a PM. Gove's dirty deed will rebound horribly. The carefully crafted man of principle is shown to be just another grubby hack.
Worse are the constant and various replays of his absolute denials of PM ambitions. "I'm not up to it" .... Rinse and repeat from his rivals.
I think there's also a possibility of a coronation by accident/default as May piles up the votes and the other four contenders vie for a small share of a diminishing pie as the voting rounds progress.
Final Round - May 250 .. A N Other 80 .
Don't excite me, JackW!
Gove may be lots of things but stupid isn't one of them. I think he has those next few moves mapped out already. Watch what job he gets at the end.
We have crossover on Betfair. Leadsom now ahead of Gove. Probably caused by the reports of Gove struggling to find any new MPs to support his campaign.
No surprise, the Leavers who don't like what Gove did to Boris will go to Leasdom as the only alternative.
That was clear since the first moment.
We could be up for a battle between two women for the Tory leadership.
Mr. Glenn, the Lib Dems would be better off with Lamb. Clegg may still be seen as tainted (hard for me to judge that, wasn't a Lib Dem voter so I never felt betrayed, as some appeared to).
Unnoticed is the split in that Lamb wants the referendum vote to be respected and Farron is pledging to take us back into the EU. Democrats vs Europhiles.
The split you've just describe does not match the label you give it. Farron is, as I understood it, pledging to run on a manifesto commitment to take us back into the EU. Now, that position is not going to win a majority, but if it did, that would be a democratic outcome. Unless he's changed tune and is now saying we shouldn't leave in the first place.
I don't think that (m)any MPs in any political party are saying that the Referendum results shouldn't be respected. It's quite reasonable to campaign in a GE for a particular stance on Europe and a GE result would trump a previous advisory referendum result.
Mr. Glenn, the Lib Dems would be better off with Lamb. Clegg may still be seen as tainted (hard for me to judge that, wasn't a Lib Dem voter so I never felt betrayed, as some appeared to).
Unnoticed is the split in that Lamb wants the referendum vote to be respected and Farron is pledging to take us back into the EU. Democrats vs Europhiles.
The split you've just describe does not match the label you give it. Farron is, as I understood it, pledging to run on a manifesto commitment to take us back into the EU. Now, that position is not going to win a majority, but if it did, that would be a democratic outcome. Unless he's changed tune and is now saying we shouldn't leave in the first place.
I don't think that (m)any MPs in any political party are saying that the Referendum results shouldn't be respected. It's quite reasonable to campaign in a GE for a particular stance on Europe and a GE result would trump a previous advisory referendum result.
We have crossover on Betfair. Leadsom now ahead of Gove. Probably caused by the reports of Gove struggling to find any new MPs to support his campaign.
No surprise, the Leavers who don't like what Gove did to Boris will go to Leasdom as the only alternative.
That was clear since the first moment.
We could be up for a battle between two women for the Tory leadership.
If Leadsom wins it'll be one of the fastest rises to the top in British political history.
Mr. Pulpstar, it's a boiled egg choice, though. You can boil an egg, or not. And, if not, you can boil it the next day, or not.
But once boiled there's no way on Earth you're going to unboil it.
Since Game of Throne references are all the rage, and given the food analogy, when considering the political question of whether certain people are good or bad because of specific flaws or actions, I wonder if we should take a black and white Melisandre approach:
"If half an onion is black with rot, it is a rotten onion. A man is good or he is evil"
Delighted by the referendum result, everybody has an issue in their life that they care most passionately about above all others and that was mine. To be in my early 20's and have that come to pass is quite incredible... even if it does mean half my bookshelf is now useless!
In terms of the Tory battle I am coming around more and more to the idea that Leadsom is the best choice and chance for my Leave side. Wouldn't surprise me May vs her.
Mr. Glenn, the Lib Dems would be better off with Lamb. Clegg may still be seen as tainted (hard for me to judge that, wasn't a Lib Dem voter so I never felt betrayed, as some appeared to).
Unnoticed is the split in that Lamb wants the referendum vote to be respected and Farron is pledging to take us back into the EU. Democrats vs Europhiles.
The split you've just describe does not match the label you give it. Farron is, as I understood it, pledging to run on a manifesto commitment to take us back into the EU. Now, that position is not going to win a majority, but if it did, that would be a democratic outcome. Unless he's changed tune and is now saying we shouldn't leave in the first place.
I don't think that (m)any MPs in any political party are saying that the Referendum results shouldn't be respected. It's quite reasonable to campaign in a GE for a particular stance on Europe and a GE result would trump a previous advisory referendum result.
Quite so. I voted Leave, and things are not so irrevocably bad that I have bremorse (check back in 6-12 months, we'll see), but if the situation changes, or even if it doesn't, and a party which advocates doing the exact opposite to the referendum wins, that's a reasonable position to take. I don't think it would work, but while there are people advocating ignoring the result, campaigning for a reversal following presumed democratic endorsement is not undemocratic.
We have crossover on Betfair. Leadsom now ahead of Gove. Probably caused by the reports of Gove struggling to find any new MPs to support his campaign.
No surprise, the Leavers who don't like what Gove did to Boris will go to Leasdom as the only alternative.
That was clear since the first moment.
We could be up for a battle between two women for the Tory leadership.
If Leadsom wins it'll be one of the fastest rises to the top in British political history.
Well, the Boris thing was a turn up. I think he was hopelessly naive: he made a Devil's pact with the Tory hard-right and they shredded him. As for Gove: I've quite liked him of late, presuming that his earlier incarnation of pop-eyed NeoCon and Iraq invasion fanatic was just a phase. But I'm now wondering if he toned down all that just to get into Dave's good books. I'm now thinking that unfettered he might be quite dangerous.
Mr. Glenn, the Lib Dems would be better off with Lamb. Clegg may still be seen as tainted (hard for me to judge that, wasn't a Lib Dem voter so I never felt betrayed, as some appeared to).
Unnoticed is the split in that Lamb wants the referendum vote to be respected and Farron is pledging to take us back into the EU. Democrats vs Europhiles.
Given that the ex-Liberal heartlands in the S.W. also voted to Leave I' not surprised.
Mr. Glenn, the Lib Dems would be better off with Lamb. Clegg may still be seen as tainted (hard for me to judge that, wasn't a Lib Dem voter so I never felt betrayed, as some appeared to).
Unnoticed is the split in that Lamb wants the referendum vote to be respected and Farron is pledging to take us back into the EU. Democrats vs Europhiles.
The split you've just describe does not match the label you give it. Farron is, as I understood it, pledging to run on a manifesto commitment to take us back into the EU. Now, that position is not going to win a majority, but if it did, that would be a democratic outcome. Unless he's changed tune and is now saying we shouldn't leave in the first place.
I don't think that (m)any MPs in any political party are saying that the Referendum results shouldn't be respected. It's quite reasonable to campaign in a GE for a particular stance on Europe and a GE result would trump a previous advisory referendum result.
Respecting the referendum result doesn't mean that an MP has to vote for Brexit. The referendum has not removed MPs' responsibility to act in the best interests of the country, as they see them.
As far as your other point is concerned, Mark Field wrote: "In essence the details of the arrangements we draw up for our exit will likely be the central issues of the 2020 General Election. At this point each of the political parties will need to make clear whether or not the Brexit deal on the table is acceptable.
Mr. Glenn, the Lib Dems would be better off with Lamb. Clegg may still be seen as tainted (hard for me to judge that, wasn't a Lib Dem voter so I never felt betrayed, as some appeared to).
Unnoticed is the split in that Lamb wants the referendum vote to be respected and Farron is pledging to take us back into the EU. Democrats vs Europhiles.
Given that the ex-Liberal heartlands in the S.W. also voted to Leave I' not surprised.
Some were Remain, others not Leave by very much. There';s something for them to work with. They don't have many options.
We have crossover on Betfair. Leadsom now ahead of Gove. Probably caused by the reports of Gove struggling to find any new MPs to support his campaign.
No surprise, the Leavers who don't like what Gove did to Boris will go to Leasdom as the only alternative.
That was clear since the first moment.
We could be up for a battle between two women for the Tory leadership.
If Leadsom wins it'll be one of the fastest rises to the top in British political history.
I think David Cameron rose faster to the top of the Tory party.
If it's Leadsom vs May, you can think about the TV debates, Leadsom has the advantage of being better on the TV than May.
Boris was the darling of the party to many, if not considered a PM. Gove's dirty deed will rebound horribly. The carefully crafted man of principle is shown to be just another grubby hack.
Worse are the constant and various replays of his absolute denials of PM ambitions. "I'm not up to it" .... Rinse and repeat from his rivals.
I think there's also a possibility of a coronation by accident/default as May piles up the votes and the other four contenders vie for a small share of a diminishing pie as the voting rounds progress.
Final Round - May 250 .. A N Other 80 .
Don't excite me, JackW!
Gove may be lots of things but stupid isn't one of them. I think he has those next few moves mapped out already. Watch what job he gets at the end.
Presently mop and bucket in the Downing Street lavvies might seem ambitious.
The problem for me with Gove is that he had two main selling points; calm intelligent communication and integrity - and he's just trashed the latter. He needed both qualities to counteract his shortcomings.
Boris was the darling of the party to many, if not considered a PM. Gove's dirty deed will rebound horribly. The carefully crafted man of principle is shown to be just another grubby hack.
Worse are the constant and various replays of his absolute denials of PM ambitions. "I'm not up to it" .... Rinse and repeat from his rivals.
I think there's also a possibility of a coronation by accident/default as May piles up the votes and the other four contenders vie for a small share of a diminishing pie as the voting rounds progress.
Final Round - May 250 .. A N Other 80 .
Don't excite me, JackW!
Gove may be lots of things but stupid isn't one of them. I think he has those next few moves mapped out already. Watch what job he gets at the end.
We have crossover on Betfair. Leadsom now ahead of Gove. Probably caused by the reports of Gove struggling to find any new MPs to support his campaign.
No surprise, the Leavers who don't like what Gove did to Boris will go to Leasdom as the only alternative.
That was clear since the first moment.
We could be up for a battle between two women for the Tory leadership.
If Leadsom wins it'll be one of the fastest rises to the top in British political history.
I think David Cameron rose faster to the top of the Tory party.
If it's Leasdom vs May, you can think about the TV debates, Leasdom has the advantage of being better on the TV than May.
Was she different in the ones other than Wembley? That was the only one I watched, and while she wasn't awful, she was so bland and robotic.
Mr. Glenn, the Lib Dems would be better off with Lamb. Clegg may still be seen as tainted (hard for me to judge that, wasn't a Lib Dem voter so I never felt betrayed, as some appeared to).
Unnoticed is the split in that Lamb wants the referendum vote to be respected and Farron is pledging to take us back into the EU. Democrats vs Europhiles.
Lib Dems like successful campaigning. Tim Farron's constituency voted remain, Norman's didn't.
We have crossover on Betfair. Leadsom now ahead of Gove. Probably caused by the reports of Gove struggling to find any new MPs to support his campaign.
No surprise, the Leavers who don't like what Gove did to Boris will go to Leasdom as the only alternative.
That was clear since the first moment.
We could be up for a battle between two women for the Tory leadership.
If Leadsom wins it'll be one of the fastest rises to the top in British political history.
I think David Cameron rose faster to the top of the Tory party.
If it's Leasdom vs May, you can think about the TV debates, Leasdom has the advantage of being better on the TV than May.
Was she different in the ones other than Wembley? That was the only one I watched, and while she wasn't awful, she was so bland and robotic.
I thought she was good. The Leave team were all on-message, but she did it well.
We have crossover on Betfair. Leadsom now ahead of Gove. Probably caused by the reports of Gove struggling to find any new MPs to support his campaign.
No surprise, the Leavers who don't like what Gove did to Boris will go to Leasdom as the only alternative.
That was clear since the first moment.
We could be up for a battle between two women for the Tory leadership.
If Leadsom wins it'll be one of the fastest rises to the top in British political history.
I think David Cameron rose faster to the top of the Tory party.
If it's Leadsom vs May, you can think about the TV debates, Leadsom has the advantage of being better on the TV than May.
Will there be public debates between the final two candidates?
O/T, but is Farron the right man to lead the Lib Dems into the next election? A Clegg comeback might make them look more credible than the alternatives.
So more or less, it's accepted that every party would be better off with its former leader.
The last person who knows anything about the Labour party is Dan Hodges. By the way what about his promise again to streak down naked about the referendum?
Mr. Glenn, the Lib Dems would be better off with Lamb. Clegg may still be seen as tainted (hard for me to judge that, wasn't a Lib Dem voter so I never felt betrayed, as some appeared to).
Unnoticed is the split in that Lamb wants the referendum vote to be respected and Farron is pledging to take us back into the EU. Democrats vs Europhiles.
The split you've just describe does not match the label you give it. Farron is, as I understood it, pledging to run on a manifesto commitment to take us back into the EU. Now, that position is not going to win a majority, but if it did, that would be a democratic outcome. Unless he's changed tune and is now saying we shouldn't leave in the first place.
Norman Lamb @normanlamb Jun 25 We must respect the democratic process
Norman Lamb @normanlamb Jun 26 But we are democrats and we do have to respect the outcome of this referendum
Norman Lamb @normanlamb Jun 26 We must respect the outcome of the vote.
Norman Lamb @normanlamb 6 hours ago I must always respect the democratic process Norman Lamb Retweeted Ralph Buckle And democracy supporting Lib Dems should consider if membership of that party is consistent with what they stand 4
The last person who knows anything about the Labour party is Dan Hodges. By the way what about his promise again to streak down naked about the referendum?
He writes for the Mail in Sunday. Jumped the shark
Boris was the darling of the party to many, if not considered a PM. Gove's dirty deed will rebound horribly. The carefully crafted man of principle is shown to be just another grubby hack.
Worse are the constant and various replays of his absolute denials of PM ambitions. "I'm not up to it" .... Rinse and repeat from his rivals.
I think there's also a possibility of a coronation by accident/default as May piles up the votes and the other four contenders vie for a small share of a diminishing pie as the voting rounds progress.
Final Round - May 250 .. A N Other 80 .
I can see this going badly for Mr Gove, I don't see it being a gift for Ms May.
Don't forget that Gove got sacked by Cameron from the Education brief.
He didn't whinge or snipe, he took it well and got on with it.
He's a grown-up politician. Willing to put his country before his colleagues.
I wish they were all like that.
I think he has very little chance of becoming leader, and I don't think he's a leader-type either, but if he stays in the race, he'll force some Brexit-centric promises from May. He'll be more willing to kick up a fuss than Boris and fight for the 17 million Brexiteers, I reckon.
Well, the Boris thing was a turn up. I think he was hopelessly naive: he made a Devil's pact with the Tory hard-right and they shredded him. As for Gove: I've quite liked him of late, presuming that his earlier incarnation of pop-eyed NeoCon and Iraq invasion fanatic was just a phase. But I'm now wondering if he toned down all that just to get into Dave's good books. I'm now thinking that unfettered he might be quite dangerous.
Yep nothing more dangerous than a conviction politician who is prepared to scheme for his beliefs.
Too out there for Brits. We like a bit of conviction wiggle room.
That would be too hilarious for words. Even better if Ozzy stays on, and he and Gove go for EU-membership in all but name. The reaction of the anti-Osborne Leaver crowd on here would be a sight to behold. Please, God, let it happen!
Mr. Glenn, the Lib Dems would be better off with Lamb. Clegg may still be seen as tainted (hard for me to judge that, wasn't a Lib Dem voter so I never felt betrayed, as some appeared to).
Unnoticed is the split in that Lamb wants the referendum vote to be respected and Farron is pledging to take us back into the EU. Democrats vs Europhiles.
The split you've just describe does not match the label you give it. Farron is, as I understood it, pledging to run on a manifesto commitment to take us back into the EU. Now, that position is not going to win a majority, but if it did, that would be a democratic outcome. Unless he's changed tune and is now saying we shouldn't leave in the first place.
Norman Lamb @normanlamb Jun 25 We must respect the democratic process
Norman Lamb @normanlamb Jun 26 But we are democrats and we do have to respect the outcome of this referendum
Norman Lamb @normanlamb Jun 26 We must respect the outcome of the vote.
Norman Lamb @normanlamb 6 hours ago I must always respect the democratic process Norman Lamb Retweeted Ralph Buckle And democracy supporting Lib Dems should consider if membership of that party is consistent with what they stand 4
Not sure the point you are making. Farron's had said that Parliament should not seek to overturn the result. But no one should expect the Lib Dems not to campaign for reentering the EU if that is what they believe in. Any more than we would expect UKIP to stop campaigning to Leave if they lost
It seems to.me that the position outlined by Farron's is perfectly honourable.
Mr. Glenn, the Lib Dems would be better off with Lamb. Clegg may still be seen as tainted (hard for me to judge that, wasn't a Lib Dem voter so I never felt betrayed, as some appeared to).
Unnoticed is the split in that Lamb wants the referendum vote to be respected and Farron is pledging to take us back into the EU. Democrats vs Europhiles.
The split you've just describe does not match the label you give it. Farron is, as I understood it, pledging to run on a manifesto commitment to take us back into the EU. Now, that position is not going to win a majority, but if it did, that would be a democratic outcome. Unless he's changed tune and is now saying we shouldn't leave in the first place.
I don't think that (m)any MPs in any political party are saying that the Referendum results shouldn't be respected. It's quite reasonable to campaign in a GE for a particular stance on Europe and a GE result would trump a previous advisory referendum result.
Respecting the referendum result doesn't mean that an MP has to vote for Brexit. The referendum has not removed MPs' responsibility to act in the best interests of the country, as they see them.
As far as your other point is concerned, Mark Field wrote: "In essence the details of the arrangements we draw up for our exit will likely be the central issues of the 2020 General Election. At this point each of the political parties will need to make clear whether or not the Brexit deal on the table is acceptable.
The last person who knows anything about the Labour party is Dan Hodges. By the way what about his promise again to streak down naked about the referendum?
He writes for the Mail in Sunday. Jumped the shark
He did sort of do it, albeit in his swimming trunks.
Mr. Glenn, the Lib Dems would be better off with Lamb. Clegg may still be seen as tainted (hard for me to judge that, wasn't a Lib Dem voter so I never felt betrayed, as some appeared to).
Unnoticed is the split in that Lamb wants the referendum vote to be respected and Farron is pledging to take us back into the EU. Democrats vs Europhiles.
The split you've just describe does not match the label you give it. Farron is, as I understood it, pledging to run on a manifesto commitment to take us back into the EU. Now, that position is not going to win a majority, but if it did, that would be a democratic outcome. Unless he's changed tune and is now saying we shouldn't leave in the first place.
Norman Lamb @normanlamb Jun 25 We must respect the democratic process
Norman Lamb @normanlamb Jun 26 But we are democrats and we do have to respect the outcome of this referendum
Norman Lamb @normanlamb Jun 26 We must respect the outcome of the vote.
Norman Lamb @normanlamb 6 hours ago I must always respect the democratic process Norman Lamb Retweeted Ralph Buckle And democracy supporting Lib Dems should consider if membership of that party is consistent with what they stand 4
Not sure the point you are making. Farron's had said that Parliament should not seek to overturn the result. But no one should expect the Lib Dems not to campaign for reentering the EU if that is what they believe in. Any more than we would expect UKIP to stop campaigning to Leave if they lost
It seems to.me that the position outlined by Farron's is perfectly honourable.
But what should their position be if we still haven't left by the time of the next GE?
Mr. Glenn, the Lib Dems would be better off with Lamb. Clegg may still be seen as tainted (hard for me to judge that, wasn't a Lib Dem voter so I never felt betrayed, as some appeared to).
Unnoticed is the split in that Lamb wants the referendum vote to be respected and Farron is pledging to take us back into the EU. Democrats vs Europhiles.
The split you've just describe does not match the label you give it. Farron is, as I understood it, pledging to run on a manifesto commitment to take us back into the EU. Now, that position is not going to win a majority, but if it did, that would be a democratic outcome. Unless he's changed tune and is now saying we shouldn't leave in the first place.
I don't think that (m)any MPs in any political party are saying that the Referendum results shouldn't be respected. It's quite reasonable to campaign in a GE for a particular stance on Europe and a GE result would trump a previous advisory referendum result.
Respecting the referendum result doesn't mean that an MP has to vote for Brexit. The referendum has not removed MPs' responsibility to act in the best interests of the country, as they see them.
As far as your other point is concerned, Mark Field wrote: "In essence the details of the arrangements we draw up for our exit will likely be the central issues of the 2020 General Election. At this point each of the political parties will need to make clear whether or not the Brexit deal on the table is acceptable.
We have crossover on Betfair. Leadsom now ahead of Gove. Probably caused by the reports of Gove struggling to find any new MPs to support his campaign.
No surprise, the Leavers who don't like what Gove did to Boris will go to Leasdom as the only alternative.
That was clear since the first moment.
We could be up for a battle between two women for the Tory leadership.
If Leadsom wins it'll be one of the fastest rises to the top in British political history.
I think David Cameron rose faster to the top of the Tory party.
If it's Leadsom vs May, you can think about the TV debates, Leadsom has the advantage of being better on the TV than May.
Will there be public debates between the final two candidates?
They were last time, and the Labour party did too last year.
That's why Leadsom has the advantage over May, she is better on TV than her.
You can list other advantages too, like May's sketchy record in the Home Office and May supporting Remain.
Leadsom may play the fresh face card, and May would lose the female card.
Mr. Glenn, the Lib Dems would be better off with Lamb. Clegg may still be seen as tainted (hard for me to judge that, wasn't a Lib Dem voter so I never felt betrayed, as some appeared to).
Unnoticed is the split in that Lamb wants the referendum vote to be respected and Farron is pledging to take us back into the EU. Democrats vs Europhiles.
The split you've just describe does not match the label you give it. Farron is, as I understood it, pledging to run on a manifesto commitment to take us back into the EU. Now, that position is not going to win a majority, but if it did, that would be a democratic outcome. Unless he's changed tune and is now saying we shouldn't leave in the first place.
Norman Lamb @normanlamb Jun 25 We must respect the democratic process
Norman Lamb @normanlamb Jun 26 But we are democrats and we do have to respect the outcome of this referendum
Norman Lamb @normanlamb Jun 26 We must respect the outcome of the vote.
Norman Lamb @normanlamb 6 hours ago I must always respect the democratic process Norman Lamb Retweeted Ralph Buckle And democracy supporting Lib Dems should consider if membership of that party is consistent with what they stand 4
Not sure the point you are making. Farron's had said that Parliament should not seek to overturn the result. But no one should expect the Lib Dems not to campaign for reentering the EU if that is what they believe in. Any more than we would expect UKIP to stop campaigning to Leave if they lost
It seems to.me that the position outlined by Farron's is perfectly honourable.
But what should their position be if we still haven't left by the time of the next GE?
The more this drags on the more I think not A50ing is wrong.
To borrow an expression, invoking A50 means certain uncertainty. Not invoking means uncertain uncertainty.
Mr. Glenn, the Lib Dems would be better off with Lamb. Clegg may still be seen as tainted (hard for me to judge that, wasn't a Lib Dem voter so I never felt betrayed, as some appeared to).
Unnoticed is the split in that Lamb wants the referendum vote to be respected and Farron is pledging to take us back into the EU. Democrats vs Europhiles.
The split you've just describe does not match the label you give it. Farron is, as I understood it, pledging to run on a manifesto commitment to take us back into the EU. Now, that position is not going to win a majority, but if it did, that would be a democratic outcome. Unless he's changed tune and is now saying we shouldn't leave in the first place.
Norman Lamb @normanlamb Jun 25 We must respect the democratic process
Norman Lamb @normanlamb Jun 26 But we are democrats and we do have to respect the outcome of this referendum
Norman Lamb @normanlamb Jun 26 We must respect the outcome of the vote.
Norman Lamb @normanlamb 6 hours ago I must always respect the democratic process Norman Lamb Retweeted Ralph Buckle And democracy supporting Lib Dems should consider if membership of that party is consistent with what they stand 4
Not sure the point you are making. Farron's had said that Parliament should not seek to overturn the result. But no one should expect the Lib Dems not to campaign for reentering the EU if that is what they believe in. Any more than we would expect UKIP to stop campaigning to Leave if they lost
It seems to.me that the position outlined by Farron's is perfectly honourable.
But what should their position be if we still haven't left by the time of the next GE?
If we have already activated Article 50 - which I am convinced we will have done - then they will be between a rock and a hard place. Not sure what they should do then
Boris was the darling of the party to many, if not considered a PM. Gove's dirty deed will rebound horribly. The carefully crafted man of principle is shown to be just another grubby hack.
Worse are the constant and various replays of his absolute denials of PM ambitions. "I'm not up to it" .... Rinse and repeat from his rivals.
I think there's also a possibility of a coronation by accident/default as May piles up the votes and the other four contenders vie for a small share of a diminishing pie as the voting rounds progress.
Final Round - May 250 .. A N Other 80 .
I can see this going badly for Mr Gove, I don't see it being a gift for Ms May.
Unless of course Gove is paving the way for Andrea (i.e. he'll pull out an hour before voting on Tuesday and urge all leaver'ers to back Mrs Leadson) We still don't really know what the hell Michael Gove is up to, IMO.
5% chance we never leave 50% chance we leave and go for EEA/EFTA - nothing much changes for the City 45% chance of WTO rules, leading to an independent Scotland in the EU and Edinburgh becoming the new finance capital of Europe
Mr. Glenn, the Lib Dems would be better off with Lamb. Clegg may still be seen as tainted (hard for me to judge that, wasn't a Lib Dem voter so I never felt betrayed, as some appeared to).
Unnoticed is the split in that Lamb wants the referendum vote to be respected and Farron is pledging to take us back into the EU. Democrats vs Europhiles.
The split you've just describe does not match the label you give it. Farron is, as I understood it, pledging to run on a manifesto commitment to take us back into the EU. Now, that position is not going to win a majority, but if it did, that would be a democratic outcome. Unless he's changed tune and is now saying we shouldn't leave in the first place.
Norman Lamb @normanlamb Jun 25 We must respect the democratic process
Norman Lamb @normanlamb Jun 26 But we are democrats and we do have to respect the outcome of this referendum
Norman Lamb @normanlamb Jun 26 We must respect the outcome of the vote.
Norman Lamb @normanlamb 6 hours ago I must always respect the democratic process Norman Lamb Retweeted Ralph Buckle And democracy supporting Lib Dems should consider if membership of that party is consistent with what they stand 4
Not sure the point you are making. Farron's had said that Parliament should not seek to overturn the result. But no one should expect the Lib Dems not to campaign for reentering the EU if that is what they believe in. Any more than we would expect UKIP to stop campaigning to Leave if they lost It seems to.me that the position outlined by Farron's is perfectly honourable.
Lamb says in essence that they need to respect democracy and move on. Farron wants to reopen the wound. A fundamental difference. There are other rumblings going on in the Lib Dems on this. Have a look at the first comments. They are not united. http://www.libdemvoice.org/a-message-from-tim-farron-51090.html
That would be too hilarious for words. Even better if Ozzy stays on, and he and Gove go for EU-membership in all but name. The reaction of the anti-Osborne Leaver crowd on here would be a sight to behold. Please, God, let it happen!
I thought Gove was bright...this is a very dim move. Osbourne is toxic with the grass roots.
Boris was the darling of the party to many, if not considered a PM. Gove's dirty deed will rebound horribly. The carefully crafted man of principle is shown to be just another grubby hack.
Worse are the constant and various replays of his absolute denials of PM ambitions. "I'm not up to it" .... Rinse and repeat from his rivals.
I think there's also a possibility of a coronation by accident/default as May piles up the votes and the other four contenders vie for a small share of a diminishing pie as the voting rounds progress.
Final Round - May 250 .. A N Other 80 .
I can see this going badly for Mr Gove, I don't see it being a gift for Ms May.
Unless of course Gove is paving the way for Andrea (i.e. he'll pull out an hour before voting on Tuesday and urge all leaver'ers to back Mrs Leadson) We still don't really know what the hell Michael Gove is up to, IMO.
Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me.
There is (IMO, and politics has of late proven itself pretty bonkers) no chance of Gove playing fast and loose enough with grown up politics to be playing that kind of game.
If nothing else, the backlash against his preferred candidate would be huge. Leadsom isn't enough of a character in her own right to withstand it or shrug it off.
Tbf to Hodges, yesterday there was a general consensus amongst the political commentariat that Eagle would declare at 3:00pm today so I doubt that piece of info was total rubbish. What probably happened is that a rival in Owen Smith emerged, threatening the position of Eagle as the single anti-Corbyn candidate. Once she knew she was unlikely to get 51 MPs in the event of another challenger emerging, she probably backed down. And that it seems like there is a chance of pushing Corbyn to resign given the reports that even the likes of Clive Lewis, Cat Smith, and John McDonnell are giving up on him.
Evening Standard: 'If she doesn't support Corbyn I'll kick the f*** out of you': London MP's aide 'threatened by Labour activist' http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIw7afI6CU
Ah,the new kinder, gentle politics.
At accurate as putting"Democratic" in the country name of an old Soviet block state.
Mr. Glenn, the Lib Dems would be better off with Lamb. Clegg may still be seen as tainted (hard for me to judge that, wasn't a Lib Dem voter so I never felt betrayed, as some appeared to).
Unnoticed is the split in that Lamb wants the referendum vote to be respected and Farron is pledging to take us back into the EU. Democrats vs Europhiles.
The split you've just describe does not match the label you give it. Farron is, as I understood it, pledging to run on a manifesto commitment to take us back into the EU. Now, that position is not going to win a majority, but if it did, that would be a democratic outcome. Unless he's changed tune and is now saying we shouldn't leave in the first place.
Norman Lamb @normanlamb Jun 25 We must respect the democratic process
Norman Lamb @normanlamb Jun 26 But we are democrats and we do have to respect the outcome of this referendum
Norman Lamb @normanlamb Jun 26 We must respect the outcome of the vote.
Norman Lamb @normanlamb 6 hours ago I must always respect the democratic process Norman Lamb Retweeted Ralph Buckle And democracy supporting Lib Dems should consider if membership of that party is consistent with what they stand 4
Not sure the point you are making. Farron's had said that Parliament should not seek to overturn the result. But no one should expect the Lib Dems not to campaign for reentering the EU if that is what they believe in. Any more than we would expect UKIP to stop campaigning to Leave if they lost It seems to.me that the position outlined by Farron's is perfectly honourable.
Lamb says in essence that they need to respect democracy and move on. Farron wants to reopen the wound. A fundamental difference. There are other rumblings going on in the Lib Dems on this. Have a look at the first comments. They are not united. http://www.libdemvoice.org/a-message-from-tim-farron-51090.html
I think it is a bit rash to set re-entry as policy before it is clear what Brexit means.
If it is a good EEA deal, then things may be different. If it is a pisspoor deal and our economy is down the Swanee then re-entry may be very very popular.
Boris was the darling of the party to many, if not considered a PM. Gove's dirty deed will rebound horribly. The carefully crafted man of principle is shown to be just another grubby hack.
Worse are the constant and various replays of his absolute denials of PM ambitions. "I'm not up to it" .... Rinse and repeat from his rivals.
I think there's also a possibility of a coronation by accident/default as May piles up the votes and the other four contenders vie for a small share of a diminishing pie as the voting rounds progress.
Final Round - May 250 .. A N Other 80 .
I can see this going badly for Mr Gove, I don't see it being a gift for Ms May.
Unless of course Gove is paving the way for Andrea (i.e. he'll pull out an hour before voting on Tuesday and urge all leaver'ers to back Mrs Leadson) We still don't really know what the hell Michael Gove is up to, IMO.
Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me.
There is (IMO, and politics has of late proven itself pretty bonkers) no chance of Gove playing fast and loose enough with grown up politics to be playing that kind of game.
If nothing else, the backlash against his preferred candidate would be huge. Leadsom isn't enough of a character in her own right to withstand it or shrug it off.
All he'd have to say is that he can't get enough support together to make it worthwhile anybody voting for him so he'll be withdrawing his nomination + Suggest that as the last LEAVER standing everyone that way inclined for go for Andrea...
Tbf to Hodges, yesterday there was a general consensus amongst the political commentariat that Eagle would declare at 3:00pm today so I doubt that piece of info was total rubbish. What probably happened is that a rival in Owen Smith emerged, threatening the position of Eagle as the single anti-Corbyn candidate. Once she knew she was unlikely to get 51 MPs in the event of another challenger emerging, she probably backed down. And that it seems like there is a chance of pushing Corbyn to resign given the reports that even the likes of Clive Lewis, Cat Smith, and John McDonnell are giving up on him.
Very valid to make Jezza sweat over the weekend. There is no hurry about a fresh contest with or without Corbyn.
Boris was the darling of the party to many, if not considered a PM. Gove's dirty deed will rebound horribly. The carefully crafted man of principle is shown to be just another grubby hack.
Worse are the constant and various replays of his absolute denials of PM ambitions. "I'm not up to it" .... Rinse and repeat from his rivals.
I think there's also a possibility of a coronation by accident/default as May piles up the votes and the other four contenders vie for a small share of a diminishing pie as the voting rounds progress.
Final Round - May 250 .. A N Other 80 .
I can see this going badly for Mr Gove, I don't see it being a gift for Ms May.
Unless of course Gove is paving the way for Andrea (i.e. he'll pull out an hour before voting on Tuesday and urge all leaver'ers to back Mrs Leadson) We still don't really know what the hell Michael Gove is up to, IMO.
Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me.
There is (IMO, and politics has of late proven itself pretty bonkers) no chance of Gove playing fast and loose enough with grown up politics to be playing that kind of game.
If nothing else, the backlash against his preferred candidate would be huge. Leadsom isn't enough of a character in her own right to withstand it or shrug it off.
All he'd have to say is that he can't get enough support together to make it worthwhile anybody voting for him so he'll be withdrawing his nomination + Suggest that as the last LEAVER standing everyone that way inclined for go for Andrea...
It would be too blatant. I think he wants to be PM.
Mr. Glenn, the Lib Dems would be better off with Lamb. Clegg may still be seen as tainted (hard for me to judge that, wasn't a Lib Dem voter so I never felt betrayed, as some appeared to).
Unnoticed is the split in that Lamb wants the referendum vote to be respected and Farron is pledging to take us back into the EU. Democrats vs Europhiles.
The split you've just describe does not match the label you give it. Farron is, as I understood it, pledging to run on a manifesto commitment to take us back into the EU. Now, that position is not going to win a majority, but if it did, that would be a democratic outcome. Unless he's changed tune and is now saying we shouldn't leave in the first place.
Norman Lamb @normanlamb Jun 25 We must respect the democratic process
Norman Lamb @normanlamb Jun 26 But we are democrats and we do have to respect the outcome of this referendum
Norman Lamb @normanlamb Jun 26 We must respect the outcome of the vote.
Norman Lamb @normanlamb 6 hours ago I must always respect the democratic process Norman Lamb Retweeted Ralph Buckle And democracy supporting Lib Dems should consider if membership of that party is consistent with what they stand 4
Not sure the point you are making. Farron's had said that Parliament should not seek to overturn the result. But no one should expect the Lib Dems not to campaign for reentering the EU if that is what they believe in. Any more than we would expect UKIP to stop campaigning to Leave if they lost It seems to.me that the position outlined by Farron's is perfectly honourable.
Lamb says in essence that they need to respect democracy and move on. Farron wants to reopen the wound. A fundamental difference. There are other rumblings going on in the Lib Dems on this. Have a look at the first comments. They are not united. http://www.libdemvoice.org/a-message-from-tim-farron-51090.html
I think it is a bit rash to set re-entry as policy before it is clear what Brexit means.
If it is a good EEA deal, then things may be different. If it is a pisspoor deal and our economy is down the Swanee then re-entry may be very very popular.
Another reason Farron is wrong. The world in 2020 could be a very different place.
So even if MPs would vote 250-80 on the Final 2, that doesn't actually happen. And thus members won't realise that MPs supported one candidate that decisively.
May must now hope that Crabb gets eliminated 4th so that most of his votes transfer to May - thus maximising May's vote amongst the final 3.
If this happens, she should get well over 50%, ie something like:
May 180 Leadsom 90 Gove 60
Whereas if Gove goes out 4th, most Gove votes will go to Leadsom, giving something like:
Leadsom 140 May 130 Crabb 60
This is absolutely key for momentum purposes going in to the members - it could decide the final outcome.
Same situation in 2005 - Clarke went out 4th, allowing Cameron to go miles ahead of Davis and Fox.
I think there's got to be a good chance it'll be May v Leadsom. Gove looks like he might've fallen into the "he who wields the dagger" trap. Fox looks to be running to make a point. Crabb seems to have started out OK but lost momentum now others have declared.
I'm not so sure that means Leadsom overtakes May in the members vote though. It's a very different political situation from 2005 and the membership are likely to place a bit more value on experience this time around. May isn't running as Ms Charisma, she's running as the safe pair of hands candidate. It might all come down to what the prevaling mood is among the membership at this moment in time.
I'd hazard a strong guess that up against anyone else, May will probably walk it though. Leadsom is by far the strongest challenge.
Comments
Rasmussen:
Trump - 43
Clinton - 39
May be mileage for Farron in being pro-EU, but soon that ship will have sailed.
But that's not very difficult, as they are idiots.
Boris was the darling of the party to many, if not considered a PM. Gove's dirty deed will rebound horribly. The carefully crafted man of principle is shown to be just another grubby hack.
Worse are the constant and various replays of his absolute denials of PM ambitions. "I'm not up to it" .... Rinse and repeat from his rivals.
I think there's also a possibility of a coronation by accident/default as May piles up the votes and the other four contenders vie for a small share of a diminishing pie as the voting rounds progress.
Final Round - May 250 .. A N Other 80 .
Because they will lose.
But once boiled there's no way on Earth you're going to unboil it.
Take away Remainers who see no point in carrying on the fight, take away some more if things don't go to hell and it doesn't seem so bad, take away Scotland which will be gone before too long, and then take away more who wanted so badly to remain but see rejoining as too difficult or unpalatable given the additional demands that would come, even if the EU was amendable, and maybe you could still have a core of 15%.
Which would be better than their current core of 5%, so may still be worth it.
That was clear since the first moment.
We could be up for a battle between two women for the Tory leadership.
It's quite reasonable to campaign in a GE for a particular stance on Europe and a GE result would trump a previous advisory referendum result.
"If half an onion is black with rot, it is a rotten onion. A man is good or he is evil"
Delighted by the referendum result, everybody has an issue in their life that they care most passionately about above all others and that was mine. To be in my early 20's and have that come to pass is quite incredible... even if it does mean half my bookshelf is now useless!
In terms of the Tory battle I am coming around more and more to the idea that Leadsom is the best choice and chance for my Leave side. Wouldn't surprise me May vs her.
My thoughts though are ABM (Anyone But May).
Landslide !!!!!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bhLN0L5JdD4
http://www.canterburytimes.co.uk/julian-brazier-reveals-andrea-leadsom-as-his-pick-as-the-next-tory-prime-minister/story-29463220-detail/story.html
twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/748557266681536512
As far as your other point is concerned, Mark Field wrote:
"In essence the details of the arrangements we draw up for our exit will likely be the central issues of the 2020 General Election. At this point each of the political parties will need to make clear whether or not the Brexit deal on the table is acceptable.
Whilst a rerun of the referendum is not a viable option, therefore, equally I anticipate that the UK electorate will within four years have the opportunity to have a further, final say on the matter of our relationship with the EU." http://markfieldmp.com/news-a-articles/to-those-constituents-demanding-a-second-referendum/
If it's Leadsom vs May, you can think about the TV debates, Leadsom has the advantage of being better on the TV than May.
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/748585088863055872
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/748217247550824448
Has Stewart Jackson given his black spot out (again).
Nothing will cement Jeremy in more. She knows this so she won't.
(The Remain team in both debates were dreadful.)
Sounds like he could have stood anyway and still had a great chance. Looks like he was looking for an excuse to give up to me.
Will we ever learn?!
By the way what about his promise again to streak down naked about the referendum?
We must respect the democratic process
Norman Lamb @normanlamb Jun 26
But we are democrats and we do have to respect the outcome of this referendum
Norman Lamb @normanlamb Jun 26
We must respect the outcome of the vote.
Norman Lamb @normanlamb 6 hours ago
I must always respect the democratic process
Norman Lamb Retweeted Ralph Buckle
And democracy supporting Lib Dems should consider if membership of that party is consistent with what they stand 4
He didn't whinge or snipe, he took it well and got on with it.
He's a grown-up politician. Willing to put his country before his colleagues.
I wish they were all like that.
I think he has very little chance of becoming leader, and I don't think he's a leader-type either, but if he stays in the race, he'll force some Brexit-centric promises from May. He'll be more willing to kick up a fuss than Boris and fight for the 17 million Brexiteers, I reckon.
Too out there for Brits. We like a bit of conviction wiggle room.
It seems to.me that the position outlined by Farron's is perfectly honourable.
That's why Leadsom has the advantage over May, she is better on TV than her.
You can list other advantages too, like May's sketchy record in the Home Office and May supporting Remain.
Leadsom may play the fresh face card, and May would lose the female card.
To borrow an expression, invoking A50 means certain uncertainty. Not invoking means uncertain uncertainty.
And here he does.
5% chance we never leave
50% chance we leave and go for EEA/EFTA - nothing much changes for the City
45% chance of WTO rules, leading to an independent Scotland in the EU and Edinburgh becoming the new finance capital of Europe
http://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/2016/06/30/et-si-edimbourg-devenait-la-grande-place-financiere-europeenne-a-la-place-de-la-city_4961399_3234.html
http://www.libdemvoice.org/a-message-from-tim-farron-51090.html
There is (IMO, and politics has of late proven itself pretty bonkers) no chance of Gove playing fast and loose enough with grown up politics to be playing that kind of game.
If nothing else, the backlash against his preferred candidate would be huge. Leadsom isn't enough of a character in her own right to withstand it or shrug it off.
At accurate as putting"Democratic" in the country name of an old Soviet block state.
Clinton 48 .. Trump 34
http://myweb.loras.edu/Loras/PDF/PollIASurveyJune2016.pdf
If it is a good EEA deal, then things may be different. If it is a pisspoor deal and our economy is down the Swanee then re-entry may be very very popular.
https://audioboom.com/boos/4767097-listen-andrea-leadsom-makes-her-case-to-be-pm
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/26/may-hails-benefits-of-sharia-as-inquiry-set-up-into-misuse-of-is/
she insisted that many British people “benefit a great deal” from the guidance offered by Sharia teaching and other religious codes.
So even if MPs would vote 250-80 on the Final 2, that doesn't actually happen. And thus members won't realise that MPs supported one candidate that decisively.
May must now hope that Crabb gets eliminated 4th so that most of his votes transfer to May - thus maximising May's vote amongst the final 3.
If this happens, she should get well over 50%, ie something like:
May 180
Leadsom 90
Gove 60
Whereas if Gove goes out 4th, most Gove votes will go to Leadsom, giving something like:
Leadsom 140
May 130
Crabb 60
This is absolutely key for momentum purposes going in to the members - it could decide the final outcome.
Same situation in 2005 - Clarke went out 4th, allowing Cameron to go miles ahead of Davis and Fox.
I don't think the Tories are ready for a Sharia Law supporter for PM.
I'm not so sure that means Leadsom overtakes May in the members vote though. It's a very different political situation from 2005 and the membership are likely to place a bit more value on experience this time around. May isn't running as Ms Charisma, she's running as the safe pair of hands candidate. It might all come down to what the prevaling mood is among the membership at this moment in time.
I'd hazard a strong guess that up against anyone else, May will probably walk it though. Leadsom is by far the strongest challenge.
You now begin to have some dim idea of what he did to us and how we all felt about it - high hopes followed by the sickening reality.
But remember you've only had ten hours - we had over four years!
I tipped them at 80/1 pre tounament as the dark horses
;-)