Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theresa May 7% ahead of Johnson amongst CON voters in first

123578

Comments

  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    murali_s said:

    Is the country trying to emerge from this clusterf*ck by having a second referendum? This seems to be gaining traction.

    No as that would lead to national humiliation, a return to the EU with full integration and maybe the Euro too
    Not saying it's going to happen, but we wouldn't be forced into anything as we haven't triggered article 50.
    We would lose the renegotiation
    Since that didn't change anything, it's no loss.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,863
    edited June 2016
    Dadge said:

    nunu said:

    nunu said:

    And no Article 50.

    Mr Hunt says: “We must not invoke Article 50 straight away because that puts a time limit of two years on negotiations after which we could be thrown out with no deal at all. So before setting the clock ticking, we need to negotiate a deal and put it to the British people, either in a referendum or through the Conservative manifesto at a fresh General Election.”
    Calm down. He said "Britain must and will leave".
    Yeh, right.

    nunu said:

    And no Article 50.

    Mr Hunt says: “We must not invoke Article 50 straight away because that puts a time limit of two years on negotiations after which we could be thrown out with no deal at all. So before setting the clock ticking, we need to negotiate a deal and put it to the British people, either in a referendum or through the Conservative manifesto at a fresh General Election.”
    Calm down. He said "Britain must and will leave".
    Yeh, right.
    How much do u wanna bet we will be gone by 1st Jan 2019?
    Read the end of Mark Field's statement and weep, Brexiters http://markfieldmp.com/news-a-articles/to-those-constituents-demanding-a-second-referendum/
    Sounds like him dreaming that in several years people will have calmed enough for MPs, assuming composition is like now, remain wise, to not go through with it and not be punished for it. How he thinks leaving or not won't be dealt with by 2020 I don't know.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @murali_s

    'What's the perception though? The Leave vote has emboldened the bigots and racists of this country to do their worst. This perception has been reinforced by the The Leave campaign's xenophobic focus.'


    The cases of anti-semitism in the Labour party took place long before this vote.
  • PlatoSaid said:

    notme said:

    Sandpit said:

    Patrick said:

    Small request from Patrick to the people of the UK:
    Like, I suspect, most Leave voters, I voted out because of the fundamental issue of sovereignty and democracy. If you can't vote for a change of policy in the EU then it is a prison not a democracy. Some, however, seem to have taken the result to be a green light to become arseholes. Please go out of your way to be kind, friendly, welcoming and respectful towards everyone in this country - especially the immigrants or native Brits of an ethnic minority.

    Well said @Patrick. The sad story yesterday from Dr @foxinsoxuk about EU medical staff feeling unwelcome is deeply regrettable. They should know that there will always be space for those who can make such a valuable contribution to the UK, no matter where they were born or what colour is their skin.

    It does appear that a bunch of racist organisations have taken the result as an endorsement of their beliefs in the UK, which of course couldn't be further from the truth.
    It doesn't work like that.

    The Spanish nurse I was speaking to has had no personal abuse. She has simply been made to feel unwanted.

    Leave has made their bed and will have to lie in it.

    A Belgian woman in our marketing team was told to "Fuck off home you Polack" at the weekend. And she's not even Polish.

    Curious, ive never ever ever heard someone in the UK use the word Polack in any context whatsoever.
    Me neither. I enjoyed the supposed anti-Polish graffiti - it was signed UKIP. Even the stupidest kid knows not to stick your name on your toilet wall missives. That's no excuse for any genuine nitwittery - but there's rather too much to be gained by trying to up the anti from angry Remainers. We're already seen the publicity that recycled tweet from 4yrs ago got.

    If you are implying or claiming that I am making it up then why not just say so?

    I think he is implying that a goodly amount of it is false flag racist attacks by hard left nutjobs to try and discredit brexiters
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,291
    Sandpit said:

    Sky reporting that Jeremy Hunt is to stand. He is currently available at 33/1+ with a wide range (80/1 with BoyleSports if you trust what to me is an unknown quantity).

    I don't expect him to win and I think his position on the EU is daft but as a candidate his odds would surely shorten from those prices.

    There's a little 34 left on Betfair. Might be a good trading bet if he does run, although TBH I really hope that few do - lets get the new PM in place quickly to get on with running the country.
    It'll take just as long with eight runners as with two. The result will be announced at the beginning of September either way.
  • JamesMJamesM Posts: 221
    edited June 2016
    Morning all. As a Conservative member and Vote Leave supporter I have no particular requirement for the next Prime Minister to be a Brexit supporter. My only requirement and expectation here is that the new PM invokes Article 50 and fulfils the will of the British people asap and prior to any further General Election or second referendum. Keep delaying things will undermine public trust and further de-stabilise the markets.

    In terms of alternative options, my preference has always been a bespoke UK deal. My main priorities are to enhance UK sovereignty and democracy, gain the ability to set-up our own trade deals and to be able to more effectively control immigration bringing it under UK democratic governance.

    Can someone who favours EFTA/EEA please inform me how, if at all, this membership option meets these requirements? I can see benefits compared to EU membership, but I know many colleagues who think it is worse than EU membership. I also wonder if it could be a transition model, which we may, if we want leave eventually if our trade with Europe declines further?
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,082
    edited June 2016
    PlatoSaid said:

    notme said:

    Sandpit said:

    Patrick said:

    Small request from Patrick to the people of the UK:
    Like, I suspect, most Leave voters, I voted out because of the fundamental issue of sovereignty and democracy. If you can't vote for a change of policy in the EU then it is a prison not a democracy. Some, however, seem to have taken the result to be a green light to become arseholes. Please go out of your way to be kind, friendly, welcoming and respectful towards everyone in this country - especially the immigrants or native Brits of an ethnic minority.

    Well said @Patrick. The sad story yesterday from Dr @foxinsoxuk about EU medical staff feeling unwelcome is deeply regrettable. They should know that there will always be space for those who can make such a valuable contribution to the UK, no matter where they were born or what colour is their skin.

    It does appear that a bunch of racist organisations have taken the result as an endorsement of their beliefs in the UK, which of course couldn't be further from the truth.
    It doesn't work like that.

    The Spanish nurse I was speaking to has had no personal abuse. She has simply been made to feel unwanted.

    Leave has made their bed and will have to lie in it.

    A Belgian woman in our marketing team was told to "Fuck off home you Polack" at the weekend. And she's not even Polish.

    Curious, ive never ever ever heard someone in the UK use the word Polack in any context whatsoever.
    Me neither. I enjoyed the supposed anti-Polish graffiti - it was signed UKIP. Even the stupidest kid knows not to stick your name on your toilet wall missives. That's no excuse for any genuine nitwittery - but there's rather too much to be gained by trying to up the anti from angry Remainers. We're already seen the publicity that recycled tweet from 4yrs ago got.
    Hmmm? You ever heard of Guido - I think you'll be a big hit there.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,674
    murali_s said:

    Is the country trying to emerge from this clusterf*ck by having a second referendum? This seems to be gaining traction.

    No it isn't and no it isn't.

    But congratulations on showing what an anti-democrat you are.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited June 2016
    HYUFD said:

    George Osborne is a young man. He may yet have a long contribution to politics ahead of him.

    May will make him ambassador to Brussels!
    Cleggers must be wondering what his next career move will be. No comfy lifetime sinecure a Eurocrat now.

  • RealBritainRealBritain Posts: 255
    There's a huge amount of denial going on here. The fact that there has been an increase in hostility and racial tension is plain.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,475
    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    murali_s said:

    Is the country trying to emerge from this clusterf*ck by having a second referendum? This seems to be gaining traction.

    No as that would lead to national humiliation, a return to the EU with full integration and maybe the Euro too
    Not saying it's going to happen, but we wouldn't be forced into anything as we haven't triggered article 50.
    We would lose the renegotiation
    I don't think that means we'd join the euro. Still, I don't think a second referendum is likely.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    George Osborne is a young man. He may yet have a long contribution to politics ahead of him.

    I bet on Wm Hague to hold one of the great offices of State within 10 years the day after his resignation as leader. Won me a crate of good wine :)
  • JamesMJamesM Posts: 221
    Oh and Jeremy Hunt's plans for a post 2022 departure is completely unacceptable. If he got to the final two I cannot see how I would back him
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054

    PlatoSaid said:

    notme said:

    Sandpit said:

    Patrick said:

    Small request from Patrick to the people of the UK:
    Like, I suspect, most Leave voters, I voted out because of the fundamental issue of sovereignty and democracy. If you can't vote for a change of policy in the EU then it is a prison not a democracy. Some, however, seem to have taken the result to be a green light to become arseholes. Please go out of your way to be kind, friendly, welcoming and respectful towards everyone in this country - especially the immigrants or native Brits of an ethnic minority.

    Well said @Patrick. The sad story yesterday from Dr @foxinsoxuk about EU medical staff feeling unwelcome is deeply regrettable. They should know that there will always be space for those who can make such a valuable contribution to the UK, no matter where they were born or what colour is their skin.

    It does appear that a bunch of racist organisations have taken the result as an endorsement of their beliefs in the UK, which of course couldn't be further from the truth.
    It doesn't work like that.

    The Spanish nurse I was speaking to has had no personal abuse. She has simply been made to feel unwanted.

    Leave has made their bed and will have to lie in it.

    A Belgian woman in our marketing team was told to "Fuck off home you Polack" at the weekend. And she's not even Polish.

    Curious, ive never ever ever heard someone in the UK use the word Polack in any context whatsoever.
    Me neither. I enjoyed the supposed anti-Polish graffiti - it was signed UKIP. Even the stupidest kid knows not to stick your name on your toilet wall missives. That's no excuse for any genuine nitwittery - but there's rather too much to be gained by trying to up the anti from angry Remainers. We're already seen the publicity that recycled tweet from 4yrs ago got.

    If you are implying or claiming that I am making it up then why not just say so?

    I think he is implying that a goodly amount of it is false flag racist attacks by hard left nutjobs to try and discredit brexiters

    Of course. I can understand why some Leave voters would not want to concede that there has been an uptick in racist and xenophobic behaviour since the referendum result was announced. But that does not mean it has not happened.

  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    i'm struggling to understand why there should be any enthusiasm for an early GE among the tories. just feels to me like there is a lot to lose and not much to gain.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054

    i'm struggling to understand why there should be any enthusiasm for an early GE among the tories. just feels to me like there is a lot to lose and not much to gain.

    Corbyn.

  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596

    I've just ordered Bonnie Tyler's Goalkeeping Blunders Vol 2. It's just totally clips of Joe Hart.

    :)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,475

    i'm struggling to understand why there should be any enthusiasm for an early GE among the tories. just feels to me like there is a lot to lose and not much to gain.

    Labour might be in the middle of a leadership election. Can't hep but feel sorry for them :D
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    notme said:

    A lot of the tales of racism and abuse we've heard since the weekend don't have the ring of truth. I suspect a large majority of them are inventions.

    On facebook yesterday, clearly made up, like those overly emotional facebook stories about someone in a fast food place hugging/paying for/ helping a muslim/gay/black/veteran/disabled woman or man on the receiving end of some entirely implausible piece of nonsense, using the type of language that someone thinks a bigot would use. When the good Samaritan step's in, everyone claps, tears in abundance. The end of the story we often found the person being saved is a doctor/brain surgeon/ nurse/abuse victim.

    "Please read and share:

    Right, this isn't about the EU. This is about pure hatred and in all honesty I'm getting sick of it.

    Last night I couldn't be arsed cooking so decided to order a burger in. The guy that delivered it was Romanian. When he went to pass me the food I noticed something on his jacket. I said to him 'You've got a stain or something on your jacket there mate'. He said 'I know, I'm sorry, I haven't had time to wash it off, it's egg, it was the person on my last delivery'. I asked him what he meant and he went on to tell me that after his last delivery, the person had gone on a rant telling him 'we voted leave, why are you still here?' In short.

    Then, after he collected the money (without a tip, obviously) he was walking away from the house when the man shouted him back. As he walked back, the man and his wife threw two eggs at him, both of which hit him, before shouting 'fuck off home, polish scum' (bearing in mind he is Romanian).

    As he told me the story, he genuinely had a tear in his eye. He finished by saying 'but I still love England, my friend'. I asked him how much he made an hour, he told me £4 plus 50p for every delivery made. I gave a £10 tip and finished by apologised to him for the behaviour of people in this country. He grabbed my hand, gave me a quick hug and said 'I'll never forget this, thank you friend'.

    It's easy to disregard posts like this on Facebook until you experience it yourself first hand. There are plenty of similar posts all around the Internet, which suggests this situation is only getting worse.

    Please share the love, eliminate the hate and stand up to evil, not in the way of good."
    That's made me :lol: . That's so faux.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,326
    JamesM said:

    Morning all. As a Conservative member and Vote Leave supporter I have no particular requirement for the next Prime Minister to be a Brexit supporter. My only requirement and expectation here is that the new PM invokes Article 50 and fulfils the will of the British people asap and prior to any further General Election or second referendum. Keep delaying things will undermine public trust and further de-stabilise the markets.

    In terms of alternative options, my preference has always been a bespoke UK deal. My main priorities are to enhance UK sovereignty and democracy, gain the ability to set-up our own trade deals and to be able to more effectively control immigration bringing it under UK democratic governance.

    Can someone who favours EFTA/EEA please inform me how, if at all, this membership option meets these requirements? I can see benefits compared to EU membership, but I know many colleagues who think it is worse than EU membership. I also wonder if it could be a transition model, which we may, if we want leave eventually if our trade with Europe declines further?

    EFTA/EEA will give you all those things with the exception of immigration control. So it depends on how important that issue is to you.
  • eekeek Posts: 30,084

    Who is backing David Miliband as next Labour leader? I've just laid him at 14 and I know others have got shorter prices, but the mechanics for getting him in look highly circuitous and there's no suggestion that he's even thought about it.

    Knowing him vaguely he won't want this mess.

    in about 6 months, as the stories the doom-mongers are propagating come true, his organisation may be required...
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,291
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Osborne is much maligned. History will be kinder to him.

    Neville Chamberlain thought the same. Remind me, how did that work out?
    Well it will be better that some of the pretty evil stuff written about him on here from some of the usual suspects.
    I'm sorry to disillusion you, but history is 90% written by left-wing ideologues. They will all be fuming at the result and spend their time savaging him for it.

    That's how Baldwin and Chamberlain, the motor of the National Government, got so badly mauled - they were trying to explain the left's utter political, moral and intellectual failure in the 1920s and 1930s. Of course, this merely made Labour's failure look all the more abject!
    Come on, YD, you know better than that. "HIstory will be kind to me, for I intend to write it". And in writing it from such a towering moral position, he had to establish a baseline that inevitably meant that Baldwin and Chamberlain would suffer - though not unjustly: Baldwin was a decent peacetime PM and Chamberlain a very good Chancellor and an outstanding Minister of Health, but neither were up to the challenge that they ultimately faced.
    Very few historians cite Churchill uncritically. Indeed Cannadine seems to assume if Churchill says it, the opposite is true. But many still use the earlier polemic Guilty Men as a source, despite its many well-publicised flaws. That is then used as an excuse to extend criticism to Conservative failure to adopt radical social and economic policy. Martin Pugh called it the 'belated victory' of the left, and so did I in an earlier work on the 1920s.

    Perhaps Osborne will be forgotten but it is most unlikely he will be remembered kindly. His economic policy was by the standards he set a failure and his social policy is a smoking ruin. Finally, he was a high-profile casualty of the referendum. Not a great record.

    However, your tips not to back him as NTL proved to be completely correct!
    I'd agree with historians re Churchill's narrative re the pre-war years (and Churchill implicitly made the same observation in that quote), but I'd distinguish between popular history and proper historians; the latter regard Chamberlain with some credit, both for his work in the 1920s and earlier 1930s and, to a lesser extent, for his achievements within the constraints he had as PM. Popular history just remembers him as selling out the Czechs at Munich for no gain.

    I agree re Guilty Men though I suspect that most who do so do it because, as you say, they have an underlying economic and social agenda to push. It's notable how Lansbury and Attlee weren't among the indicted in that pamphlet.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,451
    edited June 2016
    HYUFD said:

    murali_s said:

    Is the country trying to emerge from this clusterf*ck by having a second referendum? This seems to be gaining traction.

    No as that would lead to national humiliation, a return to the EU with full integration and maybe the Euro too
    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    nunu said:

    And no Article 50.

    Mr Hunt says: “We must not invoke Article 50 straight away because that puts a time limit of two years on negotiations after which we could be thrown out with no deal at all. So before setting the clock ticking, we need to negotiate a deal and put it to the British people, either in a referendum or through the Conservative manifesto at a fresh General Election.”
    Calm down. He said "Britain must and will leave".
    I think it's giving people hope as while that's what those at the top are saying, by suggesting we can't declare without going a deal first, which the eu says won't happen, it sounds possible he's 'saying' something else. But I'm with you. Tactics are being utilised to try and gain as much time as possible, but the endgame is accepted.

    Hunts plan for a referendum or election on a deal makes no sense though, since that risks no deal, which is what he says we need to avoid. That also gives hope to people, as if we won't declare until a deal is done, and then we vote it down, how to we then declare? His is a silly plan.
    Any second referendum needs to be of the form "Do you accept this deal for EFTA/EEA/whatever, or should we revert to WTO rules when we leave?"

    The question of should we leave the EU has already been answered, trying to ask it again will meet a predictable response from the people.
    Depends.

    Economic turmoil and Leave's unraveling promises are already making some regret their choice. If in the next three months the redundancies start kicking in and a recession looks likely then a 2nd vote on leaving isn't necessarily nailed on. All that is needed is one voter in 50 to change sides.

    Also bear in mind that for a 2nd vote, it will be the Remainers who are the most fired up.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,581
    Good morning, everyone.

    Interesting to contrast the diametrically opposing approaches: Boris going all out for publicity (even though many think he was posturing in a position he didn't really hold) and May, being as outgoing as a tortoise in a bucket.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Charles said:

    George Osborne is a young man. He may yet have a long contribution to politics ahead of him.

    I bet on Wm Hague to hold one of the great offices of State within 10 years the day after his resignation as leader. Won me a crate of good wine :)
    That was a very good bet.

    My guess is that in the coming years there will be times when the public decide that they have more need of experts, even experts who are not particularly empathetic figures. When such times come, George Osborne's stock will rise again.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Some good news - the FTSE 250 is sharply up this morning. Hopefully, the initial shit-storm is abating.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,674
    For those who want to judge Osborne then compare his stated policy from his 2010 Budget:

    " Our policy is to raise from the ruins of an economy built on debt a new, balanced economy where we save, invest and export. An economy where the state does not take almost half of all our national income, crowding out private endeavour. An economy not overly reliant on the success of one industry, financial services - important as they are - but where all industries grow. An economy where prosperity is shared among all sections of society and all parts of the country. "

    to the reality which will be revealed on Thursday in the UK Economic Account 2016q1.
  • eekeek Posts: 30,084

    PlatoSaid said:

    notme said:

    Sandpit said:

    Patrick said:

    Small request from Patrick to the people of the UK:
    Like, I suspect, most Leave voters, I voted out because of the fundamental issue of sovereignty and democracy. If you can't vote for a change of policy in the EU then it is a prison not a democracy. Some, however, seem to have taken the result to be a green light to become arseholes. Please go out of your way to be kind, friendly, welcoming and respectful towards everyone in this country - especially the immigrants or native Brits of an ethnic minority.

    Well said @Patrick. The sad story yesterday from Dr @foxinsoxuk about EU medical staff feeling unwelcome is deeply regrettable. They should know that there will always be space for those who can make such a valuable contribution to the UK, no matter where they were born or what colour is their skin.

    It does appear that a bunch of racist organisations have taken the result as an endorsement of their beliefs in the UK, which of course couldn't be further from the truth.
    It doesn't work like that.

    The Spanish nurse I was speaking to has had no personal abuse. She has simply been made to feel unwanted.

    Leave has made their bed and will have to lie in it.

    A Belgian woman in our marketing team was told to "Fuck off home you Polack" at the weekend. And she's not even Polish.

    Curious, ive never ever ever heard someone in the UK use the word Polack in any context whatsoever.
    Me neither. I enjoyed the supposed anti-Polish graffiti - it was signed UKIP. Even the stupidest kid knows not to stick your name on your toilet wall missives. That's no excuse for any genuine nitwittery - but there's rather too much to be gained by trying to up the anti from angry Remainers. We're already seen the publicity that recycled tweet from 4yrs ago got.

    If you are implying or claiming that I am making it up then why not just say so?

    I doubt its made up. Just that the story has the ring of a setup by someone or other. Either UKIP have someone who is terminally stupid as a member or someone did it and added the UKIP bit for added entertainment...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,475

    Some good news - the FTSE 250 is sharply up this morning. Hopefully, the initial shit-storm is abating.

    Still finding it's floor, no doubt.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,813

    HYUFD said:

    murali_s said:

    Is the country trying to emerge from this clusterf*ck by having a second referendum? This seems to be gaining traction.

    No as that would lead to national humiliation, a return to the EU with full integration and maybe the Euro too
    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    nunu said:

    And no Article 50.

    Mr Hunt says: “We must not invoke Article 50 straight away because that puts a time limit of two years on negotiations after which we could be thrown out with no deal at all. So before setting the clock ticking, we need to negotiate a deal and put it to the British people, either in a referendum or through the Conservative manifesto at a fresh General Election.”
    Calm down. He said "Britain must and will leave".
    I think it's giving people hope as while that's what those at the top are saying, by suggesting we can't declare without going a deal first, which the eu says won't happen, it sounds possible he's 'saying' something else. But I'm with you. Tactics are being utilised to try and gain as much time as possible, but the endgame is accepted.

    Hunts plan for a referendum or election on a deal makes no sense though, since that risks no deal, which is what he says we need to avoid. That also gives hope to people, as if we won't declare until a deal is done, and then we vote it down, how to we then declare? His is a silly plan.
    Any second referendum needs to be of the form "Do you accept this deal for EFTA/EEA/whatever, or should we revert to WTO rules when we leave?"

    The question of should we leave the EU has already been answered, trying to ask it again will meet a predictable response from the people.
    Depends.

    Economic turmoil and Leave's unraveling promises are already making some regret their choice. If in the next three months the redundancies start kicking in and a recession looks likely then a 2nd vote on leaving isn't necessarily nailed. Bear in mind that for a 2nd vote, it will be the Remainers who are the most fired up.
    NO. The best hope is May negotiates an EFTA deal if we go back to the EU now it will be full integration, maybe the Euro and the end of the nation state. We will never be able to stop anything again.
  • RealBritainRealBritain Posts: 255
    Thh climate is a reality, and instead of denying
    PlatoSaid said:

    notme said:

    A lot of the tales of racism and abuse we've heard since the weekend don't have the ring of truth. I suspect a large majority of them are inventions.

    On facebook yesterday, clearly made up, like those overly emotional facebook stories about someone in a fast food place hugging/paying for/ helping a muslim/gay/black/veteran/disabled woman or man on the receiving end of some entirely implausible piece of nonsense, using the type of language that someone thinks a bigot would use. When the good Samaritan step's in, everyone claps, tears in abundance. The end of the story we often found the person being saved is a doctor/brain surgeon/ nurse/abuse victim.

    "Please read and share:

    Right, this isn't about the EU. This is about pure hatred and in all honesty I'm getting sick of it.

    Last night I couldn't be arsed cooking so decided to order a burger in. The guy that delivered it was Romanian. When he went to pass me the food I noticed something on his jacket. I said to him 'You've got a stain or something on your jacket there mate'. He said 'I know, I'm sorry, I haven't had time to wash it off, it's egg, it was the person on my last delivery'. I asked him what he meant and he went on to tell me that after his last delivery, the person had gone on a rant telling him 'we voted leave, why are you still here?' In short.

    Then, after he collected the money (without a tip, obviously) he was walking away from the house when the man shouted him back. As he walked back, the man and his wife threw two eggs at him, both of which hit him, before shouting 'fuck off home, polish scum' (bearing in mind he is Romanian).

    As he told me the story, he genuinely had a tear in his eye. He finished by saying 'but I still love England, my friend'. I asked him how much he made an hour, he told me £4 plus 50p for every delivery made. I gave a £10 tip and finished by apologised to him for the behaviour of people in this country. He grabbed my hand, gave me a quick hug and said 'I'll never forget this, thank you friend'.

    It's easy to disregard posts like this on Facebook until you experience it yourself first hand. There are plenty of similar posts all around the Internet, which suggests this situation is only getting worse.

    Please share the love, eliminate the hate and stand up to evil, not in the way of good."
    That's made me :lol: . That's so faux.
    Your posts and tone are becoming more and more objectionable, I'm afraid. This "faux hostility" you're imagining is real, and has consequences for millions of people.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    edited June 2016

    Sandpit said:

    Sky reporting that Jeremy Hunt is to stand. He is currently available at 33/1+ with a wide range (80/1 with BoyleSports if you trust what to me is an unknown quantity).

    I don't expect him to win and I think his position on the EU is daft but as a candidate his odds would surely shorten from those prices.

    There's a little 34 left on Betfair. Might be a good trading bet if he does run, although TBH I really hope that few do - lets get the new PM in place quickly to get on with running the country.
    It'll take just as long with eight runners as with two. The result will be announced at the beginning of September either way.
    Ah okay. My impression was that the MPs would vote twice a week until the field was down to two, then there would be a one month window for the members' votes. So eight runners would take several weeks to whittle down to the remaining two, prolonging the process. I guess you're saying that the votes to members go out on the same day no matter how many candidates stand?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,863
    MikeL said:

    Dadge said:

    nunu said:

    nunu said:

    And no Article 50.

    Mr Hunt says: “We must not invoke Article 50 straight away because that puts a time limit of two years on negotiations after which we could be thrown out with no deal at all. So before setting the clock ticking, we need to negotiate a deal and put it to the British people, either in a referendum or through the Conservative manifesto at a fresh General Election.”
    Calm down. He said "Britain must and will leave".
    Yeh, right.

    nunu said:

    And no Article 50.

    Mr Hunt says: “We must not invoke Article 50 straight away because that puts a time limit of two years on negotiations after which we could be thrown out with no deal at all. So before setting the clock ticking, we need to negotiate a deal and put it to the British people, either in a referendum or through the Conservative manifesto at a fresh General Election.”
    Calm down. He said "Britain must and will leave".
    Yeh, right.
    How much do u wanna bet we will be gone by 1st Jan 2019?
    Read the end of Mark Field's statement and weep, Brexiters http://markfieldmp.com/news-a-articles/to-those-constituents-demanding-a-second-referendum/
    I don't understand this.

    Suppose MPs / the electorate are not happy to endorse the deal. What then happens?

    If Article 50 has been triggered then we have to leave anyway.

    If the suggestion is that Article 50 hasn't been triggered then is the proposal that we spend approx 2 years negotiating Brexit without triggering it? ie It wouldn't actually be triggered until approx late 2018?

    That seems quite extraordinary - is this really what is being suggested?
    Seemingly. Not happening.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054

    Thh climate is a reality, and instead of denying

    PlatoSaid said:

    notme said:

    A lot of the tales of racism and abuse we've heard since the weekend don't have the ring of truth. I suspect a large majority of them are inventions.

    On facebook yesterday, clearly made up, like those overly emotional facebook stories about someone in a fast food place hugging/paying for/ helping a muslim/gay/black/veteran/disabled woman or man on the receiving end of some entirely implausible piece of nonsense, using the type of language that someone thinks a bigot would use. When the good Samaritan step's in, everyone claps, tears in abundance. The end of the story we often found the person being saved is a doctor/brain surgeon/ nurse/abuse victim.

    "Please read and share:

    Right, this isn't about the EU. This is about pure hatred and in all honesty I'm getting sick of it.

    Last night I couldn't be arsed cooking so decided to order a burger in. The guy that delivered it was Romanian. When he went to pass me the food I noticed something on his jacket. I said to him 'You've got a stain or something on your jacket there mate'. He said 'I know, I'm sorry, I haven't had time to wash it off, it's egg, it was the person on my last delivery'. I asked him what he meant and he went on to tell me that after his last delivery, the person had gone on a rant telling him 'we voted leave, why are you still here?' In short.

    Then, after he collected the money (without a tip, obviously) he was walking away from the house when the man shouted him back. As he walked back, the man and his wife threw two eggs at him, both of which hit him, before shouting 'fuck off home, polish scum' (bearing in mind he is Romanian).

    As he told me the story, he genuinely had a tear in his eye. He finished by saying 'but I still love England, my friend'. I asked him how much he made an hour, he told me £4 plus 50p for every delivery made. I gave a £10 tip and finished by apologised to him for the behaviour of people in this country. He grabbed my hand, gave me a quick hug and said 'I'll never forget this, thank you friend'.

    It's easy to disregard posts like this on Facebook until you experience it yourself first hand. There are plenty of similar posts all around the Internet, which suggests this situation is only getting worse.

    Please share the love, eliminate the hate and stand up to evil, not in the way of good."
    That's made me :lol: . That's so faux.
    Your posts and tone are becoming more and more objectionable, I'm afraid. This "faux hostility" you're imagining is real, and has consequences for millions of people.

    Do you honestly think that Plato cares about that?

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,813

    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    murali_s said:

    Is the country trying to emerge from this clusterf*ck by having a second referendum? This seems to be gaining traction.

    No as that would lead to national humiliation, a return to the EU with full integration and maybe the Euro too
    Not saying it's going to happen, but we wouldn't be forced into anything as we haven't triggered article 50.
    We would lose the renegotiation
    Since that didn't change anything, it's no loss.
    It gave us key concessions in a number of areas. I voted Remain but Out must now be Out otherwise it will be national humiliation on a scale of Suez and Munich
  • RealBritainRealBritain Posts: 255

    Thh climate is a reality, and instead of denying

    PlatoSaid said:

    notme said:

    A lot of the tales of racism and abuse we've heard since the weekend don't have the ring of truth. I suspect a large majority of them are inventions.



    Please share the love, eliminate the hate and stand up to evil, not in the way of good."
    That's made me :lol: . That's so faux.
    Your posts and tone are becoming more and more objectionable, I'm afraid. This "faux hostility" you're imagining is real, and has consequences for millions of people.

    Do you honestly think that Plato cares about that?

    I don't know ; I always like to think the best of people, until it becomes too difficult.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,065
    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    murali_s said:

    Is the country trying to emerge from this clusterf*ck by having a second referendum? This seems to be gaining traction.

    No as that would lead to national humiliation, a return to the EU with full integration and maybe the Euro too
    Not saying it's going to happen, but we wouldn't be forced into anything as we haven't triggered article 50.
    We would lose the renegotiation
    What does that mean?
    Legally the referendum was advisory and legally if we don't trigger article 50 then we are back in the status quo before last Thursday.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    JamesM said:

    Morning all. As a Conservative member and Vote Leave supporter I have no particular requirement for the next Prime Minister to be a Brexit supporter. My only requirement and expectation here is that the new PM invokes Article 50 and fulfils the will of the British people asap and prior to any further General Election or second referendum. Keep delaying things will undermine public trust and further de-stabilise the markets.

    In terms of alternative options, my preference has always been a bespoke UK deal. My main priorities are to enhance UK sovereignty and democracy, gain the ability to set-up our own trade deals and to be able to more effectively control immigration bringing it under UK democratic governance.

    Can someone who favours EFTA/EEA please inform me how, if at all, this membership option meets these requirements? I can see benefits compared to EU membership, but I know many colleagues who think it is worse than EU membership. I also wonder if it could be a transition model, which we may, if we want leave eventually if our trade with Europe declines further?

    EFTA/EEA will give you all those things with the exception of immigration control. So it depends on how important that issue is to you.
    Do you think EFTA/EEA would give us more flexibility to reduce the pull factors that made us a disproportionate pull?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,326
    kle4 said:

    Dadge said:

    nunu said:

    nunu said:

    And no Article 50.

    Mr Hunt says: “We must not invoke Article 50 straight away because that puts a time limit of two years on negotiations after which we could be thrown out with no deal at all. So before setting the clock ticking, we need to negotiate a deal and put it to the British people, either in a referendum or through the Conservative manifesto at a fresh General Election.”
    Calm down. He said "Britain must and will leave".
    Yeh, right.

    nunu said:

    And no Article 50.

    Mr Hunt says: “We must not invoke Article 50 straight away because that puts a time limit of two years on negotiations after which we could be thrown out with no deal at all. So before setting the clock ticking, we need to negotiate a deal and put it to the British people, either in a referendum or through the Conservative manifesto at a fresh General Election.”
    Calm down. He said "Britain must and will leave".
    Yeh, right.
    How much do u wanna bet we will be gone by 1st Jan 2019?
    Read the end of Mark Field's statement and weep, Brexiters http://markfieldmp.com/news-a-articles/to-those-constituents-demanding-a-second-referendum/
    Sounds like him dreaming that in several years people will have calmed enough for MPs, assuming composition is like now, remain wise, to not go through with it and not be punished for it. How he thinks leaving or not won't be dealt with by 2020 I don't know.
    It doesn't say or mean that at all.

    Any deal that is eventually done will have to be approved by Parliament at the very least. Not approving the deal does not mean we will return to the EU. It simply means we would be outside without a deal.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    PlatoSaid said:

    notme said:

    A lot of the tales of racism and abuse we've heard since the weekend don't have the ring of truth. I suspect a large majority of them are inventions.

    On facebook yesterday, clearly made up, like those overly emotional facebook stories about someone in a fast food place hugging/paying for/ helping a muslim/gay/black/veteran/disabled woman or man on the receiving end of some entirely implausible piece of nonsense, using the type of language that someone thinks a bigot would use. When the good Samaritan step's in, everyone claps, tears in abundance. The end of the story we often found the person being saved is a doctor/brain surgeon/ nurse/abuse victim.

    "Please read and share:

    Right, this isn't about the EU. This is about pure hatred and in all honesty I'm getting sick of it.

    Last night I couldn't be arsed cooking so decided to order a burger in. The guy that delivered it was Romanian. When he went to pass me the food I noticed something on his jacket. I said to him 'You've got a stain or something on your jacket there mate'. He said 'I know, I'm sorry, I haven't had time to wash it off, it's egg, it was the person on my last delivery'. I asked him what he meant and he went on to tell me that after his last delivery, the person had gone on a rant telling him 'we voted leave, why are you still here?' In short.

    Then, after he collected the money (without a tip, obviously) he was walking away from the house when the man shouted him back. As he walked back, the man and his wife threw two eggs at him, both of which hit him, before shouting 'fuck off home, polish scum' (bearing in mind he is Romanian).

    As he told me the story, he genuinely had a tear in his eye. He finished by saying 'but I still love England, my friend'. I asked him how much he made an hour, he told me £4 plus 50p for every delivery made. I gave a £10 tip and finished by apologised to him for the behaviour of people in this country. He grabbed my hand, gave me a quick hug and said 'I'll never forget this, thank you friend'.

    It's easy to disregard posts like this on Facebook until you experience it yourself first hand. There are plenty of similar posts all around the Internet, which suggests this situation is only getting worse.

    Please share the love, eliminate the hate and stand up to evil, not in the way of good."
    That's made me :lol: . That's so faux.
    But shared as if it really happened. People genuinely lap this nonsense up.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Charles said:

    George Osborne is a young man. He may yet have a long contribution to politics ahead of him.

    I bet on Wm Hague to hold one of the great offices of State within 10 years the day after his resignation as leader. Won me a crate of good wine :)
    Well done, that was a good bet.

    Despite eleven years in their current positions, Osborne is still only 45 (and Cameron 49), it seems unlikely that they will just disappear from public life altogether this year. They both have I'm sure a lot more to contribute.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,863
    edited June 2016

    HYUFD said:

    murali_s said:

    Is the country trying to emerge from this clusterf*ck by having a second referendum? This seems to be gaining traction.

    No as that would lead to national humiliation, a return to the EU with full integration and maybe the Euro too
    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    nunu said:

    And no Article 50.

    Mr Hunt says: “We must not invoke Article 50 straight away because that puts a time limit of two years on negotiations after which we could be thrown out with no deal at all. So before setting the clock ticking, we need to negotiate a deal and put it to the British people, either in a referendum or through the Conservative manifesto at a fresh General Election.”
    Calm down. He said "Britain must and will leave".
    I think it's

    Hunts plan for a referendum or election on a deal makes no sense though, since that risks no deal, which is what he says we need to avoid. That also gives hope to people, as if we won't declare until a deal is done, and then we vote it down, how to we then declare? His is a silly plan.
    Any second referendum needs to be of the form "Do you accept this deal for EFTA/EEA/whatever, or should we revert to WTO rules when we leave?"

    The question of should we leave the EU has already been answered, trying to ask it again will meet a predictable response from the people.
    Depends.

    Economic turmoil and Leave's unraveling promises are already making some regret their choice. If in the next three months the redundancies start kicking in and a recession looks likely then a 2nd vote on leaving isn't necessarily nailed on. All that is needed is one voter in 50 to change sides.

    Also bear in mind that for a 2nd vote, it will be the Remainers who are the most fired up.
    Leave won by over a million votes. Woukd enough young people turn out? Woukd the scots bother when many have emotionally begun the process of exiting the uk? Why wouldn't leavers be even more fired up? Woukd all remainers return perhaps not comfortable with rerunning? How woukd the government know enough have regretted their choice to make a remain win viable? On what grounds woukd the now officially leave government decide to change position? How woukd it get a referendum through parliament?

    Even getting a second ref is hard to envisage, and remain winning woukd be hard.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,674
    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    George Osborne is a young man. He may yet have a long contribution to politics ahead of him.

    I bet on Wm Hague to hold one of the great offices of State within 10 years the day after his resignation as leader. Won me a crate of good wine :)
    Well done, that was a good bet.

    Despite eleven years in their current positions, Osborne is still only 45 (and Cameron 49), it seems unlikely that they will just disappear from public life altogether this year. They both have I'm sure a lot more to contribute.
    They'll 'contribute' in the same way Blair and Brown have done.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,451

    Thh climate is a reality, and instead of denying

    PlatoSaid said:

    notme said:

    A lot of the tales of racism and abuse we've heard since the weekend don't have the ring of truth. I suspect a large majority of them are inventions.

    On facebook yesterday, clearly made up, like those overly emotional facebook stories about someone in a fast food place hugging/paying for/ helping a muslim/gay/black/veteran/disabled woman or man on the receiving end of some entirely implausible piece of nonsense, using the type of language that someone thinks a bigot would use. When the good Samaritan step's in, everyone claps, tears in abundance. The end of the story we often found the person being saved is a doctor/brain surgeon/ nurse/abuse victim.

    "Please read and share:

    Right, this isn't about the EU. This is about pure hatred and in all honesty I'm getting sick of ear in his eye. He finished by saying 'but I still love England, my friend'. I asked him how much he made an hour, he told me £4 plus 50p for every delivery made. I gave a £10 tip and finished by apologised to him for the behaviour of people in this country. He grabbed my hand, gave me a quick hug and said 'I'll never forget this, thank you friend'.

    It's easy to disregard posts like this on Facebook until you experience it yourself first hand. There are plenty of similar posts all around the Internet, which suggests this situation is only getting worse.

    Please share the love, eliminate the hate and stand up to evil, not in the way of good."
    That's made me :lol: . That's so faux.
    Your posts and tone are becoming more and more objectionable, I'm afraid. This "faux hostility" you're imagining is real, and has consequences for millions of people.

    Do you honestly think that Plato cares about that?

    You're talking about someone who spent 6 years on here cheering on cuts to the benefits of the working poor and calling them scroungers. Then along came the referendum and suddenly they were the salt of the earth.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    Exactly the same reason you see lots of red Audi A1s when you have just bought one yourself.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,326
    notme said:

    JamesM said:

    Morning all. As a Conservative member and Vote Leave supporter I have no particular requirement for the next Prime Minister to be a Brexit supporter. My only requirement and expectation here is that the new PM invokes Article 50 and fulfils the will of the British people asap and prior to any further General Election or second referendum. Keep delaying things will undermine public trust and further de-stabilise the markets.

    In terms of alternative options, my preference has always been a bespoke UK deal. My main priorities are to enhance UK sovereignty and democracy, gain the ability to set-up our own trade deals and to be able to more effectively control immigration bringing it under UK democratic governance.

    Can someone who favours EFTA/EEA please inform me how, if at all, this membership option meets these requirements? I can see benefits compared to EU membership, but I know many colleagues who think it is worse than EU membership. I also wonder if it could be a transition model, which we may, if we want leave eventually if our trade with Europe declines further?

    EFTA/EEA will give you all those things with the exception of immigration control. So it depends on how important that issue is to you.
    Do you think EFTA/EEA would give us more flexibility to reduce the pull factors that made us a disproportionate pull?
    Yes absolutely. All I an doing is trying to be honest about the ability of the Government to actually put limits on migration if we are in the EEA. I have done my damn fest throughout this referendum not to.mislead about these issues and won't start doing so now.
  • notme said:

    A lot of the tales of racism and abuse we've heard since the weekend don't have the ring of truth. I suspect a large majority of them are inventions.

    On facebook yesterday, clearly made up, like those overly emotional facebook stories about someone in a fast food place hugging/paying for/ helping a muslim/gay/black/veteran/disabled woman or man on the receiving end of some entirely implausible piece of nonsense, using the type of language that someone thinks a bigot would use. When the good Samaritan step's in, everyone claps, tears in abundance. The end of the story we often found the person being saved is a doctor/brain surgeon/ nurse/abuse victim.

    "Please read and share:

    Right, this isn't about the EU. This is about pure hatred and in all honesty I'm getting sick of it.

    Last night I couldn't be arsed cooking so decided to order a burger in. The guy that delivered it was Romanian. When he went to pass me the food I noticed something on his jacket. I said to him 'You've got a stain or something on your jacket there mate'. He said 'I know, I'm sorry, I haven't had time to wash it off, it's egg, it was the person on my last delivery'. I asked him what he meant and he went on to tell me that after his last delivery, the person had gone on a rant telling him 'we voted leave, why are you still here?' In short.

    Then, after he collected the money (without a tip, obviously) he was walking away from the house when the man shouted him back. As he walked back, the man and his wife threw two eggs at him, both of which hit him, before shouting 'fuck off home, polish scum' (bearing in mind he is Romanian).

    As he told me the story, he genuinely had a tear in his eye. He finished by saying 'but I still love England, my friend'. I asked him how much he made an hour, he told me £4 plus 50p for every delivery made. I gave a £10 tip and finished by apologised to him for the behaviour of people in this country. He grabbed my hand, gave me a quick hug and said 'I'll never forget this, thank you friend'.

    It's easy to disregard posts like this on Facebook until you experience it yourself first hand. There are plenty of similar posts all around the Internet, which suggests this situation is only getting worse.

    Please share the love, eliminate the hate and stand up to evil, not in the way of good."
    To anyone who believes this. I can sell you Tower Bridge, very cheap, cash only.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    There has been a 57% increase in reported hate crimes since the referendum:

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/jun/27/sadiq-khan-muslim-council-britain-warning-of-post-brexit-racism

    We don't need to get bogged down in the authenticity of any one specific incident.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,863

    Charles said:

    George Osborne is a young man. He may yet have a long contribution to politics ahead of him.

    I bet on Wm Hague to hold one of the great offices of State within 10 years the day after his resignation as leader. Won me a crate of good wine :)
    That was a very good bet.

    My guess is that in the coming years there will be times when the public decide that they have more need of experts, even experts who are not particularly empathetic figures. When such times come, George Osborne's stock will rise again.
    I'm actually intrigued that Cameron intends to stay on as an MP after his handover. I know brown stuck around but I assumed Cameron would quit the commons when no longer pm. Waiting for a future opportunity to serve in some way perhaps.
  • RealBritainRealBritain Posts: 255
    notme said:

    Exactly the same reason you see lots of red Audi A1s when you have just bought one yourself.
    It's highly unconvincing, and I doubt you've fully convinced yourself.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,835
    Diane always good value
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,477
    JamesM said:

    Morning all. As a Conservative member and Vote Leave supporter I have no particular requirement for the next Prime Minister to be a Brexit supporter. My only requirement and expectation here is that the new PM invokes Article 50 and fulfils the will of the British people asap and prior to any further General Election or second referendum. Keep delaying things will undermine public trust and further de-stabilise the markets.

    In terms of alternative options, my preference has always been a bespoke UK deal. My main priorities are to enhance UK sovereignty and democracy, gain the ability to set-up our own trade deals and to be able to more effectively control immigration bringing it under UK democratic governance.

    Can someone who favours EFTA/EEA please inform me how, if at all, this membership option meets these requirements? I can see benefits compared to EU membership, but I know many colleagues who think it is worse than EU membership. I also wonder if it could be a transition model, which we may, if we want leave eventually if our trade with Europe declines further?

    Pragmatically, I cannot see any good alternative to EEA/EFTA at this moment in time. We have two years once Article 50 is invoked. This is not a long time to get alternative trade deals in place. Indeed, it looks like a near impossibility and we would not be negotiating from a position of strength.

    The EUs likelihood to budge on anything like the four freedoms at this moment in time looks incredibly slim.

    So we are either stuck at the end of two years reverting to WTO rules, with a very slim likelihood of any free trade deals of importance in place (which is very much a nuclear option) or we go for the quick-fix option of retaining access to the single market and free movement, with the benefit of being able to pursue our own trade deals in the meantime.

    I think it is inconceivable we'll plump for anything else. The difference between leaders will be maybe how it is sold. Some might stress it as a more temporary solution than others.

    Mr Farage will, of course, have a field day.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,451

    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    George Osborne is a young man. He may yet have a long contribution to politics ahead of him.

    I bet on Wm Hague to hold one of the great offices of State within 10 years the day after his resignation as leader. Won me a crate of good wine :)
    Well done, that was a good bet.

    Despite eleven years in their current positions, Osborne is still only 45 (and Cameron 49), it seems unlikely that they will just disappear from public life altogether this year. They both have I'm sure a lot more to contribute.
    They'll 'contribute' in the same way Blair and Brown have done.
    Let's face it, Cameron will feel right at home in the Lords. Isn't Samantha's uncle already in there?
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    edited June 2016


    Your posts and tone are becoming more and more objectionable, I'm afraid. This "faux hostility" you're imagining is real, and has consequences for millions of people.

    There's always going to be background noise unpleasantness, real or imagined.
    Mostly imagined.
    Stop projecting it all on to freedom and a victory that you choose to sneer at.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,082
    TOPPING said:

    Diane always good value

    What crazy things has she said now?
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Just completed a long Labour leadership YouGov - lots of comparative questions re Jarvis, Watson, Corbyn, McDonnell.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    murali_s said:

    Is the country trying to emerge from this clusterf*ck by having a second referendum? This seems to be gaining traction.

    No as that would lead to national humiliation, a return to the EU with full integration and maybe the Euro too
    Not saying it's going to happen, but we wouldn't be forced into anything as we haven't triggered article 50.
    We would lose the renegotiation
    Since that didn't change anything, it's no loss.
    It gave us key concessions in a number of areas.
    If that were true, BSE would have campaigned on it.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,835
    Not at all sure. Never am. It's just her manner, her funny voice, her repetitions.

    Gets me every time.

    Oh she just said Jezza can win a GE. Worth it on its own
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,863

    i'm struggling to understand why there should be any enthusiasm for an early GE among the tories. just feels to me like there is a lot to lose and not much to gain.

    Corbyn.

    Meaning labour won't play ball. They have a good excuse why no one wants a GE now.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,122
    edited June 2016
    notme said:

    JamesM said:

    Morning all. As a Conservative member and Vote Leave supporter I have no particular requirement for the next Prime Minister to be a Brexit supporter. My only requirement and expectation here is that the new PM invokes Article 50 and fulfils the will of the British people asap and prior to any further General Election or second referendum. Keep delaying things will undermine public trust and further de-stabilise the markets.

    In terms of alternative options, my preference has always been a bespoke UK deal. My main priorities are to enhance UK sovereignty and democracy, gain the ability to set-up our own trade deals and to be able to more effectively control immigration bringing it under UK democratic governance.

    Can someone who favours EFTA/EEA please inform me how, if at all, this membership option meets these requirements? I can see benefits compared to EU membership, but I know many colleagues who think it is worse than EU membership. I also wonder if it could be a transition model, which we may, if we want leave eventually if our trade with Europe declines further?

    EFTA/EEA will give you all those things with the exception of immigration control. So it depends on how important that issue is to you.
    Do you think EFTA/EEA would give us more flexibility to reduce the pull factors that made us a disproportionate pull?
    I can't believe you are engaging in this level of debate. What will reduce our pull is our self inflicted economic recession.

    We have to have the single market. That is just non negotiable. This isn 't about our ability to trade, this is about companies that invest in the UK. Many will just invest in those countries that have access to the common market.
  • Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sky reporting that Jeremy Hunt is to stand. He is currently available at 33/1+ with a wide range (80/1 with BoyleSports if you trust what to me is an unknown quantity).

    I don't expect him to win and I think his position on the EU is daft but as a candidate his odds would surely shorten from those prices.

    There's a little 34 left on Betfair. Might be a good trading bet if he does run, although TBH I really hope that few do - lets get the new PM in place quickly to get on with running the country.
    It'll take just as long with eight runners as with two. The result will be announced at the beginning of September either way.
    Ah okay. My impression was that the MPs would vote twice a week until the field was down to two, then there would be a one month window for the members' votes. So eight runners would take several weeks to whittle down to the remaining two, prolonging the process. I guess you're saying that the votes to members go out on the same day no matter how many candidates stand?
    AIUI nominations in by close of play Weds. MPs reduce field to two on Thurs and ballots out to members on Friday or shortly thereafter.

    Nb compare and contrast with Labour
  • eekeek Posts: 30,084
    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    George Osborne is a young man. He may yet have a long contribution to politics ahead of him.

    I bet on Wm Hague to hold one of the great offices of State within 10 years the day after his resignation as leader. Won me a crate of good wine :)
    Well done, that was a good bet.

    Despite eleven years in their current positions, Osborne is still only 45 (and Cameron 49), it seems unlikely that they will just disappear from public life altogether this year. They both have I'm sure a lot more to contribute.
    Wm Hague had not actually failed when he left the leadership. Given an impossible task in opposition he performed well.

    Cameron and Osbourne have both had senior roles which have ended in acrimony. I really don't see how they come back from here - especially for the latter when you judge what he offered compared to where we are and where we needed to be....
  • RealBritainRealBritain Posts: 255
    GeoffM said:


    Your posts and tone are becoming more and more objectionable, I'm afraid. This "faux hostility" you're imagining is real, and has consequences for millions of people.

    There's always going to be background noise unpleasantness, real or imagined.
    Mostly imagined.
    Stop projecting it all on to freedom and a victory that you choose to sneer at.
    There's a simple choice for some people on the Leave side ; accept that this is linked to the referendum early on, and try to mitigate it by denunciation and disassociation from the actual objectives of the leave campaign. Denial, instead will leave it to fester and deepen, and then the blame apportioned will be far, far more serious.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,082
    edited June 2016
    TOPPING said:

    Not at all sure. Never am. It's just her manner, her funny voice, her repetitions.

    Gets me every time.

    Oh she just said Jezza can win a GE. Worth it on its own

    LOL - there are so many Comical Alis around these days!
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,451
    GeoffM said:


    Your posts and tone are becoming more and more objectionable, I'm afraid. This "faux hostility" you're imagining is real, and has consequences for millions of people.

    There's always going to be background noise unpleasantness, real or imagined.
    Mostly imagined.
    Stop projecting it all on to freedom and a victory that you choose to sneer at.
    It's very real right now. Why can't Leave admit they encouraged some very unpleasant attitudes and people in order to win?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,581
    Mr. kle4, I think it was said some time ago (before the referendum was the main story, or its campaign either) that Cameron intended to stay as an MP> I remember being surprised by that as well.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Thh climate is a reality, and instead of denying

    PlatoSaid said:

    notme said:

    A lot of the tales of racism and abuse we've heard since the weekend don't have the ring of truth. I suspect a large majority of them are inventions.

    snip

    "Please read and share:

    Right, this isn't about the EU. This is about pure hatred and in all honesty I'm getting sick of it.

    Last night I couldn't be arsed cooking so decided to order a burger in. The guy that delivered it was Romanian. When he went to pass me the food I noticed something on his jacket. I said to him 'You've got a stain or something on your jacket there mate'. He said 'I know, I'm sorry, I haven't had time to wash it off, it's egg, it was the person on my last delivery'. I asked him what he meant and he went on to tell me that after his last delivery, the person had gone on a rant telling him 'we voted leave, why are you still here?' In short.

    Then, after he collected the money (without a tip, obviously) he was walking away from the house when the man shouted him back. As he walked back, the man and his wife threw two eggs at him, both of which hit him, before shouting 'fuck off home, polish scum' (bearing in mind he is Romanian).

    As he told me the story, he genuinely had a tear in his eye. He finished by saying 'but I still love England, my friend'. I asked him how much he made an hour, he told me £4 plus 50p for every delivery made. I gave a £10 tip and finished by apologised to him for the behaviour of people in this country. He grabbed my hand, gave me a quick hug and said 'I'll never forget this, thank you friend'.

    It's easy to disregard posts like this on Facebook until you experience it yourself first hand. There are plenty of similar posts all around the Internet, which suggests this situation is only getting worse.

    Please share the love, eliminate the hate and stand up to evil, not in the way of good."
    That's made me :lol: . That's so faux.
    Your posts and tone are becoming more and more objectionable, I'm afraid. This "faux hostility" you're imagining is real, and has consequences for millions of people.

    Do you honestly think that Plato cares about that?

    Awww. You've already claimed this morning to know that I won't be personally effected by Brexit. Your crystal ball is a remarkable device. How disappointing for you that the stock market isn't falling this morning - you posted oodles of tweets yesterday and appeared to be perversely enjoying it.

    Take the mote from your own eye.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,832

    JamesM said:

    Morning all. As a Conservative member and Vote Leave supporter I have no particular requirement for the next Prime Minister to be a Brexit supporter. My only requirement and expectation here is that the new PM invokes Article 50 and fulfils the will of the British people asap and prior to any further General Election or second referendum. Keep delaying things will undermine public trust and further de-stabilise the markets.

    In terms of alternative options, my preference has always been a bespoke UK deal. My main priorities are to enhance UK sovereignty and democracy, gain the ability to set-up our own trade deals and to be able to more effectively control immigration bringing it under UK democratic governance.

    Can someone who favours EFTA/EEA please inform me how, if at all, this membership option meets these requirements? I can see benefits compared to EU membership, but I know many colleagues who think it is worse than EU membership. I also wonder if it could be a transition model, which we may, if we want leave eventually if our trade with Europe declines further?

    Pragmatically, I cannot see any good alternative to EEA/EFTA at this moment in time. We have two years once Article 50 is invoked. This is not a long time to get alternative trade deals in place. Indeed, it looks like a near impossibility and we would not be negotiating from a position of strength.

    The EUs likelihood to budge on anything like the four freedoms at this moment in time looks incredibly slim.

    So we are either stuck at the end of two years reverting to WTO rules, with a very slim likelihood of any free trade deals of importance in place (which is very much a nuclear option) or we go for the quick-fix option of retaining access to the single market and free movement, with the benefit of being able to pursue our own trade deals in the meantime.

    I think it is inconceivable we'll plump for anything else. The difference between leaders will be maybe how it is sold. Some might stress it as a more temporary solution than others.

    Mr Farage will, of course, have a field day.
    What you seem to be looking at is a Norway-style arrangement. Fraragists will indeed dislike it.
  • eekeek Posts: 30,084
    eek said:

    Who is backing David Miliband as next Labour leader? I've just laid him at 14 and I know others have got shorter prices, but the mechanics for getting him in look highly circuitous and there's no suggestion that he's even thought about it.

    Knowing him vaguely he won't want this mess.

    in about 6 months, as the stories the doom-mongers are propagating come true, his organisation may be required...
    Back down to 10 now. If I didn't want to tie up any more money on that bet I would happily lay to about 20....
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    notme said:

    JamesM said:

    Morning all. As a Conservative member and Vote Leave supporter I have no particular requirement for the next Prime Minister to be a Brexit supporter. My only requirement and expectation here is that the new PM invokes Article 50 and fulfils the will of the British people asap and prior to any further General Election or second referendum. Keep delaying things will undermine public trust and further de-stabilise the markets.

    In terms of alternative options, my preference has always been a bespoke UK deal. My main priorities are to enhance UK sovereignty and democracy, gain the ability to set-up our own trade deals and to be able to more effectively control immigration bringing it under UK democratic governance.

    Can someone who favours EFTA/EEA please inform me how, if at all, this membership option meets these requirements? I can see benefits compared to EU membership, but I know many colleagues who think it is worse than EU membership. I also wonder if it could be a transition model, which we may, if we want leave eventually if our trade with Europe declines further?

    EFTA/EEA will give you all those things with the exception of immigration control. So it depends on how important that issue is to you.
    Do you think EFTA/EEA would give us more flexibility to reduce the pull factors that made us a disproportionate pull?
    Yes absolutely. All I an doing is trying to be honest about the ability of the Government to actually put limits on migration if we are in the EEA. I have done my damn fest throughout this referendum not to.mislead about these issues and won't start doing so now.
    Im with you 100%. Ive studied EU institutions at undergrad level, and fully understand why membership of the single market is an absolute must, but some others dont seem to realise that accepting entry to the single market means free movement.

    I honestly cannot see us being any less an economic place to do business for commerce if we move smoothly from the EU to the EEA.

    I am genuinely excited at the thoughts of negotiating trade agreements with many of our old kith and kin and also some brand new markets.

    Free trade brings prosperity to both, but producers in sheltered market places will show massive hostility.

    Let us use our overseas development money as part of the EEA social equalisation grants for the poorer areas of the EU (the biggest cost that norway seems to have as membership).

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,415

    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    murali_s said:

    Is the country trying to emerge from this clusterf*ck by having a second referendum? This seems to be gaining traction.

    No as that would lead to national humiliation, a return to the EU with full integration and maybe the Euro too
    Not saying it's going to happen, but we wouldn't be forced into anything as we haven't triggered article 50.
    We would lose the renegotiation
    What does that mean?
    Legally the referendum was advisory and legally if we don't trigger article 50 then we are back in the status quo before last Thursday.
    Not quite. The EU has confirmed that Dave's deal is no more as it was a condition of the deal that there was a yes vote.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,863

    Gadfly said:

    daodao said:

    It is in the interests of the EU to hold a metaphorical pistol to the head of the PM today, and force him to state in a minuted meeting of heads of state that the UK has decided to leave, which can be taken as having invoked A50.

    It may not be that simple...

    " In our constitution, Parliament gets to make this decision, not the Prime Minister."

    https://ukconstitutionallaw.org/2016/06/27/nick-barber-tom-hickman-and-jeff-king-pulling-the-article-50-trigger-parliaments-indispensable-role/
    Parliament is superior to the PM, but the people are superior to Parliament.

    And the people have spoken.
    Technically speaking I don't think the people are superior, or a referendum woukd be legally binding and it isn't. However in practice ignoring the people isn't viable.

    But it remains, if parliament asked the people to vote again the outcome, either way, woukd be just as valid. The people have spoken, they could always speak again. That's what is giving some people hope, they just cannot find a way to ask the people again - and it'll drop away as an idea soon.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    Some good news - the FTSE 250 is sharply up this morning. Hopefully, the initial shit-storm is abating.

    Sadly some on PB would rather a recession than Brexit be a success.
  • FTSE UP 134 (2.2%)

    Pound UP from its low of 1.31 against dollar to 1.33.


  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,587

    JamesM said:

    Morning all. As a Conservative member and Vote Leave supporter I have no particular requirement for the next Prime Minister to be a Brexit supporter. My only requirement and expectation here is that the new PM invokes Article 50 and fulfils the will of the British people asap and prior to any further General Election or second referendum. Keep delaying things will undermine public trust and further de-stabilise the markets.

    In terms of alternative options, my preference has always been a bespoke UK deal. My main priorities are to enhance UK sovereignty and democracy, gain the ability to set-up our own trade deals and to be able to more effectively control immigration bringing it under UK democratic governance.

    Can someone who favours EFTA/EEA please inform me how, if at all, this membership option meets these requirements? I can see benefits compared to EU membership, but I know many colleagues who think it is worse than EU membership. I also wonder if it could be a transition model, which we may, if we want leave eventually if our trade with Europe declines further?

    Pragmatically, I cannot see any good alternative to EEA/EFTA at this moment in time. We have two years once Article 50 is invoked. This is not a long time to get alternative trade deals in place. Indeed, it looks like a near impossibility and we would not be negotiating from a position of strength.

    The EUs likelihood to budge on anything like the four freedoms at this moment in time looks incredibly slim.

    So we are either stuck at the end of two years reverting to WTO rules, with a very slim likelihood of any free trade deals of importance in place (which is very much a nuclear option) or we go for the quick-fix option of retaining access to the single market and free movement, with the benefit of being able to pursue our own trade deals in the meantime.

    I think it is inconceivable we'll plump for anything else. The difference between leaders will be maybe how it is sold. Some might stress it as a more temporary solution than others.

    Mr Farage will, of course, have a field day.
    What you seem to be looking at is a Norway-style arrangement. Fraragists will indeed dislike it.
    Agree. And I have said for some time that predictions of UKIP being redundant after a leave vote are premature. Labour, be afraid....
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,122

    Some good news - the FTSE 250 is sharply up this morning. Hopefully, the initial shit-storm is abating.


    Southam- pointing to a days's recovery in meaningless. It's as bad as those posters here on Friday smirking at project fear because the market rallied at the end of the day. The footsie and sterling are on a significant downward trajectory, meanwhile there are plenty of traders who are making hay on the volatility that this entails.

    What is happening now though in our economy is that the housing market has virtually come to a stand still, businesses are reviewing their investment plans, banks are reviewing their lending criteria, individuals are more worried about their debt situation and stop buying. This is the real economy- and is tanking faster than the titanic.

    Unless there is a clear, unambiguous statement by the Government that we will stay in the common market, come what may, the impact on the real economy will be worse.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    tyson said:

    notme said:

    JamesM said:

    Morning all. As a Conservative member and Vote Leave supporter I have no particular requirement for the next Prime Minister to be a Brexit supporter. My only requirement and expectation here is that the new PM invokes Article 50 and fulfils the will of the British people asap and prior to any further General Election or second referendum. Keep delaying things will undermine public trust and further de-stabilise the markets.

    In terms of alternative options, my preference has always been a bespoke UK deal. My main priorities are to enhance UK sovereignty and democracy, gain the ability to set-up our own trade deals and to be able to more effectively control immigration bringing it under UK democratic governance.

    Can someone who favours EFTA/EEA please inform me how, if at all, this membership option meets these requirements? I can see benefits compared to EU membership, but I know many colleagues who think it is worse than EU membership. I also wonder if it could be a transition model, which we may, if we want leave eventually if our trade with Europe declines further?

    EFTA/EEA will give you all those things with the exception of immigration control. So it depends on how important that issue is to you.
    Do you think EFTA/EEA would give us more flexibility to reduce the pull factors that made us a disproportionate pull?
    I can't believe you are engaging in this level of debate. What will reduce our pull is our self inflicted economic recession.

    We have to have the single market. That is just non negotiable. This isn 't about our ability to trade, this is about companies that invest in the UK. Many will just invest in those countries that have access to the common market.
    If you see any of my posts over the last six months you will see I've made repeated comments that we need to remain in the Single Market.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    MP_SE said:

    Some good news - the FTSE 250 is sharply up this morning. Hopefully, the initial shit-storm is abating.

    Sadly some on PB would rather a recession than Brexit be a success.
    I don't think SO is one of those! But on Twitter you get the sense that some on the left want Britain to fall to bits.

    I'm confident it won't.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    Some thoughts following the referendum. I voted for David Cameron to become Tory leader when I was a member. I always had a high opinion of him until he tried to sell his renegotiation as a good deal. I lost all faith then. He was right to resign but we need a new leader quickly.

    The complete lack of preparation for the possibility of a Brexit vote is completely shocking. It is clear that the vast majority of Government and Opposition did not want or expect Brexit. However, they should have prepared for what the next steps would have been. To have not done so is in my view a massive dereliction of duty.

    I had always liked Boris but I think his performance since the result have been dire. He should've been straight onto the airwaves calming things and reassuring that plans are being put in place, nothing changes immediately but we're now working on the best solution. I don't have a vote now for Tory leader but I would go for Theresa May now if I did.

    When there is a new PM they should do the following:
    - Confirm out has to be out
    - Not invoke A50 immediately
    - Join EFTA as a starting point
    - Make free trade deals with our friends in the world (Commonwealth + USA as a starting point) which can be introduced when we do leave the EU
    - Look at setting up a new freedom of movement zone with countries of similar economic standing (Canada, Australia, NZ initially). Others can join if they meet strict economic criteria - no fudging of the rules like the EU did.
    - Persuade Ireland that they would be better off in our new economic world than shackle themselves to the failing EU
    - When we are ready then invoke A50

    Europe would hate this but we are within our rights to do this. Leave the EU and look out to the world!

    I was a Leaver and was beginning to have #Bremorse having seen the markets go into full panic mode. However, having seem the EU reaction and having thought some more about the possibilities of making our own deals with other countries throughout the world I am much more positive. Also, the panic in the markets across the world seems massively overdone - are they really saying that the UK leaving the EU is going to have such a major impact that it causes an economic meltdown more than in 2008? Nothing has really changed (yet) so it seems to me now to be everyone getting the wobbles.

    As for Labour - they have no choice but to split now.

    2nd EU referendum? Not unless it is to ratify our approach to leaving the EU.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    PlatoSaid said:

    Dear me - not another day of this?

    My favourite huffy teenager behaviour from the EU is the intention to throw English out as an official language. I wonder what they'll use instead - or expect Ireland to say about that?!

    So speaks someone completely immune to any negative consequences of Brexit.

    Yes, we have entered the denial stage from the Brexiteers - it seems that anything and everything that is a negative consequence of this incredibly stupid decision is untrue, not actually negative or affects only the "metropolitan elite" or "that London".

    What is the threshold of crap over which the Brexiters will throw their cards in? Do they have one? Or is it all in on 7-2 offsuit with a running picture board, and hope for the best?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,863
    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    George Osborne is a young man. He may yet have a long contribution to politics ahead of him.

    I bet on Wm Hague to hold one of the great offices of State within 10 years the day after his resignation as leader. Won me a crate of good wine :)
    Well done, that was a good bet.

    Despite eleven years in their current positions, Osborne is still only 45 (and Cameron 49), it seems unlikely that they will just disappear from public life altogether this year. They both have I'm sure a lot more to contribute.
    Wm Hague had not actually failed when he left the leadership. Given an impossible task in opposition he performed well.

    Cameron and Osbourne have both had senior roles which have ended in acrimony. I really don't see how they come back from here - especially for the latter when you judge what he offered compared to where we are and where we needed to be....
    If things do go to hell for the Tories even being wrong on this issue might make Cameron, in some capacity, seem a very reassuring pick again for something,
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,114

    JamesM said:

    Morning all. As a Conservative member and Vote Leave supporter I have no particular requirement for the next Prime Minister to be a Brexit supporter. My only requirement and expectation here is that the new PM invokes Article 50 and fulfils the will of the British people asap and prior to any further General Election or second referendum. Keep delaying things will undermine public trust and further de-stabilise the markets.

    In terms of alternative options, my preference has always been a bespoke UK deal. My main priorities are to enhance UK sovereignty and democracy, gain the ability to set-up our own trade deals and to be able to more effectively control immigration bringing it under UK democratic governance.

    Can someone who favours EFTA/EEA please inform me how, if at all, this membership option meets these requirements? I can see benefits compared to EU membership, but I know many colleagues who think it is worse than EU membership. I also wonder if it could be a transition model, which we may, if we want leave eventually if our trade with Europe declines further?

    Pragmatically, I cannot see any good alternative to EEA/EFTA at this moment in time. We have two years once Article 50 is invoked. This is not a long time to get alternative trade deals in place. Indeed, it looks like a near impossibility and we would not be negotiating from a position of strength.

    The EUs likelihood to budge on anything like the four freedoms at this moment in time looks incredibly slim.

    So we are either stuck at the end of two years reverting to WTO rules, with a very slim likelihood of any free trade deals of importance in place (which is very much a nuclear option) or we go for the quick-fix option of retaining access to the single market and free movement, with the benefit of being able to pursue our own trade deals in the meantime.

    I think it is inconceivable we'll plump for anything else. The difference between leaders will be maybe how it is sold. Some might stress it as a more temporary solution than others.

    Mr Farage will, of course, have a field day.
    What you seem to be looking at is a Norway-style arrangement. Fraragists will indeed dislike it.
    Shouldn't we, you know, start looking to getting some pre-emptive trade deals in place? (Not that we have any sort of plan)
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,082

    FTSE UP 134 (2.2%)

    Pound UP from its low of 1.31 against dollar to 1.33.


    Cat and dead come to mind. Let's review this at the end of the week.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Actually no... I can't be bothered, signal to noise ratio is abysmal, will check back in a day or two.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    JamesM said:

    Morning all. As a Conservative member and Vote Leave supporter I have no particular requirement for the next Prime Minister to be a Brexit supporter. My only requirement and expectation here is that the new PM invokes Article 50 and fulfils the will of the British people asap and prior to any further General Election or second referendum. Keep delaying things will undermine public trust and further de-stabilise the markets.

    In terms of alternative options, my preference has always been a bespoke UK deal. My main priorities are to enhance UK sovereignty and democracy, gain the ability to set-up our own trade deals and to be able to more effectively control immigration bringing it under UK democratic governance.

    Can someone who favours EFTA/EEA please inform me how, if at all, this membership option meets these requirements? I can see benefits compared to EU membership, but I know many colleagues who think it is worse than EU membership. I also wonder if it could be a transition model, which we may, if we want leave eventually if our trade with Europe declines further?

    Pragmatically, I cannot see any good alternative to EEA/EFTA at this moment in time. We have two years once Article 50 is invoked. This is not a long time to get alternative trade deals in place. Indeed, it looks like a near impossibility and we would not be negotiating from a position of strength.

    The EUs likelihood to budge on anything like the four freedoms at this moment in time looks incredibly slim.

    So we are either stuck at the end of two years reverting to WTO rules, with a very slim likelihood of any free trade deals of importance in place (which is very much a nuclear option) or we go for the quick-fix option of retaining access to the single market and free movement, with the benefit of being able to pursue our own trade deals in the meantime.

    I think it is inconceivable we'll plump for anything else. The difference between leaders will be maybe how it is sold. Some might stress it as a more temporary solution than others.

    Mr Farage will, of course, have a field day.
    What you seem to be looking at is a Norway-style arrangement. Fraragists will indeed dislike it.
    EEA/EFTA is the least worst alternative - but it leaves the situation on the ground largely unchanged albeit with the U.K having far less influence than it did when in the EU. So what was the point of all this? Just to rattle the hearts of a few xenophobic Red BNP types who won't get what they want anyway.
  • JamesMJamesM Posts: 221
    edited June 2016
    For me personally I am not as hung up about migration as many, but I do think the Leave campaign made commitments to bring migration under democratic control (I don't actually think the official campaign committed formally to reduce it substantially). Moreover I think we have got to a point in the UK where we need to lance the migration boil by showing the public a new system and then working to elaborate the net benefits of migration and ensuring we have more effective infrastructure in place to support those communities most affected by it.

    What I don't understand is whether EFTA/EEA allows us to revert to free movement of labour over people; thus only guaranteeing access to those with job offers?

    On the democracy issue - in what sense does it boost that and sovereignty?

    With trade deals - I assume they would have to be EFTA not UK deals?

    Finally, I was quite intrigued by the IEA Brexit prize win. He suggested EFTA but not EEA.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Fenster said:

    MP_SE said:

    Some good news - the FTSE 250 is sharply up this morning. Hopefully, the initial shit-storm is abating.

    Sadly some on PB would rather a recession than Brexit be a success.
    I don't think SO is one of those! But on Twitter you get the sense that some on the left want Britain to fall to bits.

    I'm confident it won't.
    No, not SO but there are plenty on here who seem delighted at the prospect of a UK recession.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,065

    FTSE UP 134 (2.2%)

    Pound UP from its low of 1.31 against dollar to 1.33.


    Yes but the FTSE was down over 2.5% yesterday.
    Brexit is costing us, you may think it's worth it, but it is costly.
  • Innocent_AbroadInnocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294
    AlistairM said:

    Some thoughts following the referendum. I voted for David Cameron to become Tory leader when I was a member. I always had a high opinion of him until he tried to sell his renegotiation as a good deal. I lost all faith then. He was right to resign but we need a new leader quickly.

    The complete lack of preparation for the possibility of a Brexit vote is completely shocking. It is clear that the vast majority of Government and Opposition did not want or expect Brexit. However, they should have prepared for what the next steps would have been. To have not done so is in my view a massive dereliction of duty.

    I had always liked Boris but I think his performance since the result have been dire. He should've been straight onto the airwaves calming things and reassuring that plans are being put in place, nothing changes immediately but we're now working on the best solution. I don't have a vote now for Tory leader but I would go for Theresa May now if I did.

    When there is a new PM they should do the following:
    - Confirm out has to be out
    - Not invoke A50 immediately
    - Join EFTA as a starting point
    - Make free trade deals with our friends in the world (Commonwealth + USA as a starting point) which can be introduced when we do leave the EU
    - Look at setting up a new freedom of movement zone with countries of similar economic standing (Canada, Australia, NZ initially). Others can join if they meet strict economic criteria - no fudging of the rules like the EU did.
    - Persuade Ireland that they would be better off in our new economic world than shackle themselves to the failing EU
    - When we are ready then invoke A50

    Europe would hate this but we are within our rights to do this. Leave the EU and look out to the world!

    I was a Leaver and was beginning to have #Bremorse having seen the markets go into full panic mode. However, having seem the EU reaction and having thought some more about the possibilities of making our own deals with other countries throughout the world I am much more positive. Also, the panic in the markets across the world seems massively overdone - are they really saying that the UK leaving the EU is going to have such a major impact that it causes an economic meltdown more than in 2008? Nothing has really changed (yet) so it seems to me now to be everyone getting the wobbles.

    As for Labour - they have no choice but to split now.

    2nd EU referendum? Not unless it is to ratify our approach to leaving the EU.

    There won't be another referendum The next Tory leader will call a GE & put continued membership in the Tory manifesto. In the meantime the s.50 application will be put on hold.

  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    PlatoSaid said:

    Just completed a long Labour leadership YouGov - lots of comparative questions re Jarvis, Watson, Corbyn, McDonnell.

    No wonder YouGov can't poll for toffee when you are on their panel pontificating about the Labour leadership. Still, I hope you "enjoy" the experience.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    GeoffM said:


    Your posts and tone are becoming more and more objectionable, I'm afraid. This "faux hostility" you're imagining is real, and has consequences for millions of people.

    There's always going to be background noise unpleasantness, real or imagined.
    Mostly imagined.
    Stop projecting it all on to freedom and a victory that you choose to sneer at.
    There's a simple choice for some people on the Leave side ; accept that this is linked to the referendum early on, and try to mitigate it by denunciation and disassociation from the actual objectives of the leave campaign. Denial, instead will leave it to fester and deepen, and then the blame apportioned will be far, far more serious.
    Bollocks.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,122
    notme said:

    tyson said:

    notme said:

    JamesM said:

    Morning all. As a Conservative member and Vote Leave supporter I have no particular requirement for the next Prime Minister to be a Brexit supporter. My only requirement and expectation here is that the new PM invokes Article 50 and fulfils the will of the British people asap and prior to any further General Election or second referendum. Keep delaying things will undermine public trust and further de-stabilise the markets.

    In terms of alternative options, my preference has always been a bespoke UK deal. My main priorities are to enhance UK sovereignty and democracy, gain the ability to set-up our own trade deals and to be able to more effectively control immigration bringing it under UK democratic governance.

    Can someone who favours EFTA/EEA please inform me how, if at all, this membership option meets these requirements? I can see benefits compared to EU membership, but I know many colleagues who think it is worse than EU membership. I also wonder if it could be a transition model, which we may, if we want leave eventually if our trade with Europe declines further?

    EFTA/EEA will give you all those things with the exception of immigration control. So it depends on how important that issue is to you.
    Do you think EFTA/EEA would give us more flexibility to reduce the pull factors that made us a disproportionate pull?
    I can't believe you are engaging in this level of debate. What will reduce our pull is our self inflicted economic recession.

    We have to have the single market. That is just non negotiable. This isn 't about our ability to trade, this is about companies that invest in the UK. Many will just invest in those countries that have access to the common market.
    If you see any of my posts over the last six months you will see I've made repeated comments that we need to remain in the Single Market.
    I know- I'm so frustrated and angry about Brexit. There were a few people like you and Richard looking at what the implications were for the single market, and drawn to Brexit on the legal side.

    But Brexit won on the basis of immigration. Simple as. Taking back control- was a dog whistle to say that we could stop immigration. And what is going to happen now when all those people who voted Brexit to stop immigration now realise that they were fooled? And they were fooled because it is impossible that UK capitalism will allow us to operate without access to the single market.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,587
    murali_s said:

    FTSE UP 134 (2.2%)

    Pound UP from its low of 1.31 against dollar to 1.33.


    Cat and dead come to mind. Let's review this at the end of the week.
    The profits people have made from short positions since Thursday, it is inevitable that some of them will be closed out. And there isn't any more news today, so far. In the medium term market sentiment will depend on how much there is a steady drop of bad news or uncertainty, and longer term whether the inflation and employment indices start to turn negative or not.
  • RealBritainRealBritain Posts: 255
    GeoffM said:

    GeoffM said:


    Your posts and tone are becoming more and more objectionable, I'm afraid. This "faux hostility" you're imagining is real, and has consequences for millions of people.

    There's always going to be background noise unpleasantness, real or imagined.
    Mostly imagined.
    Stop projecting it all on to freedom and a victory that you choose to sneer at.
    There's a simple choice for some people on the Leave side ; accept that this is linked to the referendum early on, and try to mitigate it by denunciation and disassociation from the actual objectives of the leave campaign. Denial, instead will leave it to fester and deepen, and then the blame apportioned will be far, far more serious.
    Bollocks.
    Eloquent, persuasive, rational - the argument won in a flash.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,065
    kle4 said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    George Osborne is a young man. He may yet have a long contribution to politics ahead of him.

    I bet on Wm Hague to hold one of the great offices of State within 10 years the day after his resignation as leader. Won me a crate of good wine :)
    Well done, that was a good bet.

    Despite eleven years in their current positions, Osborne is still only 45 (and Cameron 49), it seems unlikely that they will just disappear from public life altogether this year. They both have I'm sure a lot more to contribute.
    Wm Hague had not actually failed when he left the leadership. Given an impossible task in opposition he performed well.

    Cameron and Osbourne have both had senior roles which have ended in acrimony. I really don't see how they come back from here - especially for the latter when you judge what he offered compared to where we are and where we needed to be....
    If things do go to hell for the Tories even being wrong on this issue might make Cameron, in some capacity, seem a very reassuring pick again for something,
    Cameron didn't have to call a referendum, it was his decision. I don't see him coming back from that anytime soon.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,082
    GeoffM said:

    GeoffM said:


    Your posts and tone are becoming more and more objectionable, I'm afraid. This "faux hostility" you're imagining is real, and has consequences for millions of people.

    There's always going to be background noise unpleasantness, real or imagined.
    Mostly imagined.
    Stop projecting it all on to freedom and a victory that you choose to sneer at.
    There's a simple choice for some people on the Leave side ; accept that this is linked to the referendum early on, and try to mitigate it by denunciation and disassociation from the actual objectives of the leave campaign. Denial, instead will leave it to fester and deepen, and then the blame apportioned will be far, far more serious.
    Bollocks.
    Chillax bruv, chillax.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,863

    kle4 said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    George Osborne is a young man. He may yet have a long contribution to politics ahead of him.

    I bet on Wm Hague to hold one of the great offices of State within 10 years the day after his resignation as leader. Won me a crate of good wine :)
    Well done, that was a good bet.

    Despite eleven years in their current positions, Osborne is still only 45 (and Cameron 49), it seems unlikely that they will just disappear from public life altogether this year. They both have I'm sure a lot more to contribute.
    Wm Hague had not actually failed when he left the leadership. Given an impossible task in opposition he performed well.

    Cameron and Osbourne have both had senior roles which have ended in acrimony. I really don't see how they come back from here - especially for the latter when you judge what he offered compared to where we are and where we needed to be....
    If things do go to hell for the Tories even being wrong on this issue might make Cameron, in some capacity, seem a very reassuring pick again for something,
    Cameron didn't have to call a referendum, it was his decision. I don't see him coming back from that anytime soon.
    I didn't say soon. And given his party, he did have to call a referendum. It was as PM he didn't have to, but he wouldn't have been so without it.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    tyson said:

    notme said:

    tyson said:

    notme said:

    JamesM said:

    Morning all. As a Conservative member and Vote Leave supporter I have no particular requirement for the next Prime Minister to be a Brexit supporter. My only requirement and expectation here is that the new PM invokes Article 50 and fulfils the will of the British people asap and prior to any further General Election or second referendum. Keep delaying things will undermine public trust and further de-stabilise the markets.

    In terms of alternative options, my preference has always been a bespoke UK deal. My main priorities are to enhance UK sovereignty and democracy, gain the ability to set-up our own trade deals and to be able to more effectively control immigration bringing it under UK democratic governance.

    Can someone who favours EFTA/EEA please inform me how, if at all, this membership option meets these requirements? I can see benefits compared to EU membership, but I know many colleagues who think it is worse than EU membership. I also wonder if it could be a transition model, which we may, if we want leave eventually if our trade with Europe declines further?

    EFTA/EEA will give you all those things with the exception of immigration control. So it depends on how important that issue is to you.
    Do you think EFTA/EEA would give us more flexibility to reduce the pull factors that made us a disproportionate pull?
    I can't believe you are engaging in this level of debate. What will reduce our pull is our self inflicted economic recession.


    If you see any of my posts over the last six months you will see I've made repeated comments that we need to remain in the Single Market.
    I know- I'm so frustrated and angry about Brexit. There were a few people like you and Richard looking at what the implications were for the single market, and drawn to Brexit on the legal side.

    But Brexit won on the basis of immigration. Simple as. Taking back control- was a dog whistle to say that we could stop immigration. And what is going to happen now when all those people who voted Brexit to stop immigration now realise that they were fooled? And they were fooled because it is impossible that UK capitalism will allow us to operate without access to the single market.
    I agree that I cannot see how we could realistically not want to be a member of the single market. As i told my MP, what thatcherite Tory would not want to be a member of the Single Market? It's her raison d'etre across a continent.
This discussion has been closed.