Overall I can see Boris will have some grounds for support among MPs. But why is he such a heavy betting favourite?
Iain Dale said yesterday that he had enough MPs to make the ballot [not 100% clear if that meant the final two, mind]. With Gove's support that's plausible; all the more so if Osborne might back him.
If it's a final two of Boris v Theresa I'd currently be 1.75 Boris, 2.33 Theresa. But Theresa can win if she converts convincingly to Brexit. I reckon the members voted 70-30 or so for Out.
Thanks. I had heard that Boris was expecting substantial backing from MPs but it wasn't clear to me where that was going to come from, bearing in mind so many MPs were (at least nominally) for Remain.
I wonder to what extent the membership have a different set of priorities than MPs. And to what extent anti-Boris MPs might try to be strategic, therefore, about who they set up to play off against Boris.
Nicola Sturgeon taking forward a bill - including a second referendum - tomorrow in the Scottish Parliament.
Will give her full rights to back any course of action, including Indyref 2 to retain Scotland's membership. Greens and Labour will back. Liberals too possible. Tories will try to ammend to remove Independence option but will get voted down by SNP and Greens at least, possibly others.
Almost certain Nicola will get full mandate for second referendum.
She can't get a full mandate from them, it's not in their power to give
I think that Boris has done himself serious harm in recent days - too many people regard him with amused contempt. His Achilles heel is that he just doesn't think things through, so people attach themselves to him because of the charisma and end up disappointed. May's edge is the same that Merkel had and to dsome extent still has - she's boring and solid at a time when people are getting tired of charlatans.
What evidence do you have that people are tiring of charlatans? Name the charlatans.
On the contrary charlatans are clearly popular, probably more popular than ever. They won a referenum just a few days ago.
You lot need to make your minds up it seems, one says the charlatans won, the other that we're tired of them.
Last week the country told us exactly what they're tired of = being hectored and patronised.
From what my friend at the FCO said earlier tonight, the shitstorm has not even begun.
Your friend at the FCO?
Well we were talking of charlatans.....
You still saying the population will fall due to mass emigration?
You're an emotional wreck, have a few days off.
An old flatmate of mine from university days ;-)
No, I do not expect population to fall. Immigration is only 50% of the projected population rise over the next decades, and only 50% of that is from the EU.
I have posted this a lot of times. The working age population may fall though as this was stable under ONS projections pre Brexit. Who knows what happens next.
As my source said "There is no plan"
We have a government in chaos, no-one at the helm, paliament going on its hols for the summer, and no plan.
Astonishing reversal of mood tonight in the comments sections of the popular press, as other people have pointed out elsewhere tonight. The confident anti-EU mood has vanished.
Nicola Sturgeon taking forward a bill - including a second referendum - tomorrow in the Scottish Parliament.
Will give her full rights to back any course of action, including Indyref 2 to retain Scotland's membership. Greens and Labour will back. Liberals too possible. Tories will try to ammend to remove Independence option but will get voted down by SNP and Greens at least, possibly others.
Almost certain Nicola will get full mandate for second referendum.
She can't get a full mandate from them, it's not in their power to give
Whether that argument is right or wrong.
In a few months there will be a general election. SNP, Greens, Labour and Liberals could well be pro-Indy. Good luck Tories getting much more than your 1 seat.
I am ready to be convinced by the two candidates I am presented with by MPs. I have misgivings about rewarding the naked ambition of May though, who did enough to join the Remain camp but then did nothing to help it beat Leave. I'm not sure that is the new politics that voters seem to want. It just looks like the worst kind of duplicitous naked ambition of the old politics... At least Boris eventually took a position and stuck to it, throughout.
Personally I prefer May to Boris and EEA+EFTA to a bespoke deal.
I don't think EEA will work for Britain. I don't think we will be prepared to outsource our law making and governance to a third party we aren't a member of and over whom were have no influence even in theory. I suspect we will not be offered EEA membership by the rEU because the weak institutions require a greater degree of trust than the EU does. I don't think they trust us enough. We are not Norway.
Astonishing reversal of mood tonight in the comments sections of the popular press, as other people have pointed out elsewhere tonight. The confident anti-EU mood has vanished.
There will certainly be no referendum, if we stay in now the EU would steamroller us with further integration and we would be humiliated
I genuinely have no idea of what is to follow at this uncharted point, and despite the public effort to appear on a settled course I have doubts that the other EU leaders do either.
It's not pretty, but we hold the key to non-contagion: we can bring back stability by promising not to trigger A50 - if ONLY THEY JUST CUT US SOME FUCKING SLACK ON MIGRATION
This.
It's the path of least resistance if only the British political class can find a way to sell it to the voters.
Nicola Sturgeon taking forward a bill - including a second referendum - tomorrow in the Scottish Parliament.
Will give her full rights to back any course of action, including Indyref 2 to retain Scotland's membership. Greens and Labour will back. Liberals too possible. Tories will try to ammend to remove Independence option but will get voted down by SNP and Greens at least, possibly others.
Almost certain Nicola will get full mandate for second referendum.
She can't get a full mandate from them, it's not in their power to give
Whether that argument is right or wrong.
In a few months there will be a general election. SNP, Greens, Labour and Liberals could well be pro-Indy. Good luck Tories getting much more than your 1 seat.
Well the Union was backed by 55.3% and they are the only unionist party. Tories don't need luck with numbers like that.
I think that Boris has done himself serious harm in recent days - too many people regard him with amused contempt. His Achilles heel is that he just doesn't think things through, so people attach themselves to him because of the charisma and end up disappointed. May's edge is the same that Merkel had and to dsome extent still has - she's boring and solid at a time when people are getting tired of charlatans.
What evidence do you have that people are tiring of charlatans? Name the charlatans.
On the contrary charlatans are clearly popular, probably more popular than ever. They won a referenum just a few days ago.
Indeed. Both current and historical evidence suggests that when people have had enough of boring run-of-the-mill charlatan politicians, they generally turn to out-and-out through-and-through charlatans.
Overall I can see Boris will have some grounds for support among MPs. But why is he such a heavy betting favourite?
Iain Dale said yesterday that he had enough MPs to make the ballot [not 100% clear if that meant the final two, mind]. With Gove's support that's plausible; all the more so if Osborne might back him.
If it's a final two of Boris v Theresa I'd currently be 1.75 Boris, 2.33 Theresa. But Theresa can win if she converts convincingly to Brexit. I reckon the members voted 70-30 or so for Out.
I don't think it will be decided on Leave v Remain - that decision has been taken - but on credibility in sorting out the mess. Theresa May clearly has the advantage of being competent, reliable and solid, Boris has the advantage of having seized the political initiative which gives him a quasi-mandate. But I think his advantage in that respect has a limited lifetime and could go into reverse.
But Theresa is intriguingly positioned to out-Brexit Boris, isn't she? By insisting something is done on immigration.
I understand the temptation of going for straight EEA - it's easy. Though it would be a massive betrayal of a huge chunk of the Leave vote, the hit from that would fall disproportionately on Labour (who do have it coming).
However I personally don't think that that would be a tenable response to a vote that has finally engaged the "they're all the same" cynics: to ignore their central [valid] concern would only confirm their worst suspicions of the political process as a whole. Something (not necessarily that much) has to be done on freedom of movement, given the campaign we've just had.
It's not pretty, but we hold the key to non-contagion: we can bring back stability by promising not to trigger A50 - if ONLY THEY JUST CUT US SOME FUCKING SLACK ON MIGRATION
This.
It's the path of least resistance if only the British political class can find a way to sell it to the voters.
And if only the EU was willing or able to offer it up. Only then could our political class attempt to sell it to us.
Nicola Sturgeon taking forward a bill - including a second referendum - tomorrow in the Scottish Parliament.
Will give her full rights to back any course of action, including Indyref 2 to retain Scotland's membership. Greens and Labour will back. Liberals too possible. Tories will try to ammend to remove Independence option but will get voted down by SNP and Greens at least, possibly others.
Almost certain Nicola will get full mandate for second referendum.
She can't get a full mandate from them, it's not in their power to give
Whether that argument is right or wrong.
In a few months there will be a general election. SNP, Greens, Labour and Liberals could well be pro-Indy. Good luck Tories getting much more than your 1 seat.
Well the Union was backed by 55.3% and they are the only unionist party. Tories don't need luck with numbers like that.
There are probably less backers of the Union than that now.
Overall I can see Boris will have some grounds for support among MPs. But why is he such a heavy betting favourite?
Iain Dale said yesterday that he had enough MPs to make the ballot [not 100% clear if that meant the final two, mind]. With Gove's support that's plausible; all the more so if Osborne might back him.
If it's a final two of Boris v Theresa I'd currently be 1.75 Boris, 2.33 Theresa. But Theresa can win if she converts convincingly to Brexit. I reckon the members voted 70-30 or so for Out.
I don't think it will be decided on Leave v Remain - that decision has been taken - but on credibility in sorting out the mess. Theresa May clearly has the advantage of being competent, reliable and solid, Boris has the advantage of having seized the political initiative which gives him a quasi-mandate. But I think his advantage in that respect has a limited lifetime and could go into reverse.
But Theresa is intriguingly positioned to out-Brexit Boris, isn't she? By insisting something is done on immigration.
I understand the temptation of going for straight EEA - it's easy. Though it would be a massive betrayal of a huge chunk of the Leave vote, the hit from that would fall disproportionately on Labour (who do have it coming).
However I personally don't think that that would be a tenable response to a vote that has finally engaged the "they're all the same" cynics: to ignore their central [valid] concern would only confirm their worst suspicions of the political process as a whole. Something (not necessarily that much) has to be done on freedom of movement, given the campaign we've just had.
Nicola Sturgeon taking forward a bill - including a second referendum - tomorrow in the Scottish Parliament.
Will give her full rights to back any course of action, including Indyref 2 to retain Scotland's membership. Greens and Labour will back. Liberals too possible. Tories will try to ammend to remove Independence option but will get voted down by SNP and Greens at least, possibly others.
Almost certain Nicola will get full mandate for second referendum.
She can't get a full mandate from them, it's not in their power to give
Whether that argument is right or wrong.
In a few months there will be a general election. SNP, Greens, Labour and Liberals could well be pro-Indy. Good luck Tories getting much more than your 1 seat.
Well the Union was backed by 55.3% and they are the only unionist party. Tories don't need luck with numbers like that.
Times have changed.
There might even be an electoral arrangement if the other parties commit.
It just dawned on me, this leadership race is going to be dominated by one question
'When will you trigger article 50'
"I do not intend to trigger article 50 before we have the outline of a deal with the EU. The Article was written by the EU to favour the EU. However, if the EU will not negotiate with us prior to Article 50, I shall seek to conclude contingent free trade deals with friendly nations such as Australia, Canada and New Zealand before invoking Article 50."
Astonishing reversal of mood tonight in the comments sections of the popular press, as other people have pointed out elsewhere tonight. The confident anti-EU mood has vanished.
There will certainly be no referendum, if we stay in now the EU would steamroller us with further integration and we would be humiliated
I genuinely have no idea of what is to follow at this uncharted point, and despite the public effort to appear on a settled course I have doubts that the other EU leaders do either.
While a few leaders, like Poland's President, will listen, Juncker, Tusk, Hollande etc could not care less. The best we can hope for is an EFTA deal
Nicola Sturgeon taking forward a bill - including a second referendum - tomorrow in the Scottish Parliament.
Will give her full rights to back any course of action, including Indyref 2 to retain Scotland's membership. Greens and Labour will back. Liberals too possible. Tories will try to ammend to remove Independence option but will get voted down by SNP and Greens at least, possibly others.
Almost certain Nicola will get full mandate for second referendum.
She can't get a full mandate from them, it's not in their power to give
Whether that argument is right or wrong.
In a few months there will be a general election. SNP, Greens, Labour and Liberals could well be pro-Indy. Good luck Tories getting much more than your 1 seat.
Sounds like the field will be free to hoover up the votes with everyone splitting the vote on the other side
Astonishing reversal of mood tonight in the comments sections of the popular press, as other people have pointed out elsewhere tonight. The confident anti-EU mood has vanished.
It's not pretty, but we hold the key to non-contagion: we can bring back stability by promising not to trigger A50 - if ONLY THEY JUST CUT US SOME FUCKING SLACK ON MIGRATION
They won't, newsnight tonight saying Juncker, Tusk, the French etc were ready to pack our bags for us. The Poles and Germans may be a bit more sympathetic but not much
The Conservative leadership race is going to be dominated by issues much more than personalities to an unusual extent. That may well help Theresa May, and Andrea Leadsom if she runs.
Labour, which really needs a post-Brexit position as a matter of some urgency, doesn't even seem to have a mechanism to discuss the key policy questions, being engulfed in a morass or personality politics.
It just dawned on me, this leadership race is going to be dominated by one question
'When will you trigger article 50'
"I do not intend to trigger article 50 before we have the outline of a deal with the EU. The Article was written by the EU to favour the EU. However, if the EU will not negotiate with us prior to Article 50, I shall seek to conclude contingent free trade deals with friendly nations such as Australia, Canada and New Zealand before invoking Article 50."
You can see Theresa May looking authoritative with that answer
When I had lunch with Richard Wilson a few weeks back he told me that he rated May the highest of all of them.
Richard Wilson the actor? He is a died in the wool Labourite.
Lord Wilson of Dinton, the former Cabinet Secretary
I don't belieeeeeeve it!
Nice man, have lunch with him every year or so. You can literally watch him carefully weighing every word as the is at least 3 remarks ahead of you in the conversation
It's a futile petition, but there's 3.8 million signatures, they cannot all be hacked ones.
Ok let's presume all are legit. I still don't get what point are you trying to make?
I'm not trying to make any point, I was commenting on the frequent complaints we've seen about this petition being a fraud, as with that amount of numbers signing it it seems improbable they are all frauds.
I've made my position on the futility of the petition, and that whatever the worthiness or not of a threshold for referenda there was not one in place and it is too late for Remainers now to wish there had been such a threshold, very clear, so won't belabor the point.
Perhaps you can tell me what point you were trying to make with your question, since as far as I can tell my comment was perfectly unambiguous - not all the signatures will be hacked, therefore there are a lot of signatures. Nothing but the facts.
Astonishing reversal of mood tonight in the comments sections of the popular press, as other people have pointed out elsewhere tonight. The confident anti-EU mood has vanished.
It's not pretty, but we hold the key to non-contagion: we can bring back stability by promising not to trigger A50 - if ONLY THEY JUST CUT US SOME FUCKING SLACK ON MIGRATION
They won't, newsnight tonight saying Juncker, Tusk, the French etc were ready to pack our bags for us. The Poles and Germans may be a bit more sympathetic but not much
Juncker likely to be the first to go as Europe bickers...
Astonishing reversal of mood tonight in the comments sections of the popular press, as other people have pointed out elsewhere tonight. The confident anti-EU mood has vanished.
It's not pretty, but we hold the key to non-contagion: we can bring back stability by promising not to trigger A50 - if ONLY THEY JUST CUT US SOME FUCKING SLACK ON MIGRATION
They won't, newsnight tonight saying Juncker, Tusk, the French etc were ready to pack our bags for us. The Poles and Germans may be a bit more sympathetic but not much
Juncker likely to be the first to go as Europe bickers...
Astonishing reversal of mood tonight in the comments sections of the popular press, as other people have pointed out elsewhere tonight. The confident anti-EU mood has vanished.
Nope. Of course confidence has reduced, we're past the realm of predictions and into gritty reality. Confidence can return once everyone in power gets a grip.
So Boris is our next PM and negotiates membership of the EEA - his preferred option - which means we're out of the EU but still have lots of Poles, Latvians etc coming and going. Given that's not what the closet, and no so closet racists who voted Leave wanted, how long do you think he'll last?
Until 2020? If he can get a deal which works out for most Tory Leavers and Remainers, as a compromise, no need to try to force a GE.
The Conservative leadership race is going to be dominated by issues much more than personalities to an unusual extent. That may well help Theresa May, and Andrea Leadsom if she runs.
Labour, which really needs a post-Brexit position as a matter of some urgency, doesn't even seem to have a mechanism to discuss the key policy questions, being engulfed in a morass or personality politics.
It will be May I think, she will then comfortably beat Labour, probably led by McDonnell or Watson and have a mandate to negotiate
EEA+ EFTA implies free movement. It would be a betrayal of the WWC voters for Brexit (though I personally wouldn't be unhappy about it). I think it would be better to begin by unilaterally removing tariffs under WTO rules, and simultaneously apply restrictions on *new* migrants while preserving rights of existing migrants, and seek similar arrangements with former EU partners wrt their immigrants from UK.
Any compromise betrays some component of the voter coalition (and when we talk of 52% vs 48%, we are talking about two quite different voter coalitions, each surprisingly diverse!).
From a political point of view what matters is whether you can afford to upset those people, or at least, whether what you are getting sufficient strategic/economic/political "bang" for the your betrayal "buck". The size of the cost depends on how many people you're ticking off, how angry you're going to make them, and realistically, how likely they are to vote.
Anecdotal evidence and Ashcroft's poll suggest there were plenty of Leave voters for whom immigration was not a prime concern, and while there may be Remain voters for whom immigration was a concern but insufficient to drive their vote, so it seems likely that immigration concerns fall below the the threshold of a majority in their own right. But on pure weight of numbers, you're still looking at a fair chunk - a couple of million people who are likely to be seriously upset.
When you look at it from a Tory point of view - how likely are these people to vote, though? Are they likely to be people who only do so as a protest vote? For many in the WWC in the Labour heartlands - people who delivered the Leave victory - they are simply not "in play" for the Tories anyway, even if they do ever return to the ballot box. In Labour's safe seats it wouldn't matter even if thousands of them did turn blue! I did wonder if the Tories could try a landscape-changing "Northern Strategy" (a kind of reverse of the US Republican Southern Strategy) but I can't see that the numbers are there for them.
From a Tory electoral PoV, the maths backs dumping this portion of voters if there is even a slight reward for doing so. Since the fruit of accepting free movement of labour is likely a much better deal economically (so better chances at next GE) , it seems inevitable to me.
Boris was of course right about the referendum not being just about immigration. As one of the regular ads on this site pre-Thursday illustrated, it was also about not being governed by posh rich blokes.
On a personal level I'd like an immigration system that didn't discriminate so blatantly by nationality, and while I'm not a fan of managerialism there is an obvious case for a more strategic approach. Non-English-speaking, unskilled Lithuanian or Romanian migration with unlimited numbers, while we are very strict on highly-skilled English-fluent South Africans or Indians or South Americans is not a coherent policy and for me seems uncomfortably close to racism. If we can't trust bureaucrats to evaluate complex skillsets and match them to rapidly changing requirements, we could auction work visas, perhaps supplementary to a points system.
I don't ever expect such a thing to be implemented - wasn't expecting my vote to be on the winning side of the referendum full stop! - and I accept, pragmatically, that free labour may have to form part of a post-Brexit settlement, so I wouldn't be seriously upset. I'm sure there are many other Leavers whose preferred immigration doesn't involve unlimited unskilled migration but who could stomach it, particularly if there's a more contributory approach to welfare.
Boris was of course right about the referendum not being just about immigration. As one of the regular ads on this site pre-Thursday illustrated, it was also about not being governed by posh rich blokes.
It's not pretty, but we hold the key to non-contagion: we can bring back stability by promising not to trigger A50 - if ONLY THEY JUST CUT US SOME FUCKING SLACK ON MIGRATION
Astonishing reversal of mood tonight in the comments sections of the popular press, as other people have pointed out elsewhere tonight. The confident anti-EU mood has vanished.
It's not pretty, but we hold the key to non-contagion: we can bring back stability by promising not to trigger A50 - if ONLY THEY JUST CUT US SOME FUCKING SLACK ON MIGRATION
They won't, newsnight tonight saying Juncker, Tusk, the French etc were ready to pack our bags for us. The Poles and Germans may be a bit more sympathetic but not much
Juncker and Tusk, fuck them. They are irrelevant. It is still the national governments which count especially Germany, Italy, France, Poland.
German would accommodate us (cars, geopolitics), the Poles too (all those Poles in the UK) Italy would get over it. France might be sticky, but they fear Le Pen and she trades on Brexit.
This is do-able, if the Europeans get moving and the Brits are proactive. We get a special Emergency Brake on migration. The FT was talking about it today. We go back to the people, they revote, REMAIN wins, crisis over.
For now.
Unless the economy and banks across the EU are genuinely about to collapse I can't see it happening myself, they gave us as much as they were willing to give, we rejected it, I think we both have to move on. We should now focus on EFTA not the EU, we might at least get something there
Blimey. No one in Labour is under 6 on BF to be next leader. The betting is all over the place.
If there's a breakaway party Corbyn could be the Labour leader for life...
I wish there was a breakaway party, it's only FPTP that prevents it I suppose. Corbyn seems like he'd be happier with the SWP, and plenty of others would seem better aligned in other places.
For shits and giggles, Michael Fallon should say 'Boris shouldn't be PM because he'll betray the country just like the many times he betrayed his wife'
It's not pretty, but we hold the key to non-contagion: we can bring back stability by promising not to trigger A50 - if ONLY THEY JUST CUT US SOME FUCKING SLACK ON MIGRATION
No. We voted to Leave. We Leave.
We voted to leave based on the situation at the time. It is possible, and not undemocratic if done by democratic means as well, to vote otherwise if the situation materially changes. But that we would indeed probably vote to leave again anyway (Scotland no interest in voting remain in large numbers again, with independence now sought, no reason to think young people will turn out this time, even more reason for Leavers to turn out, etc), is just one of many reasons it is very improbable to happen.
Astonishing reversal of mood tonight in the comments sections of the popular press, as other people have pointed out elsewhere tonight. The confident anti-EU mood has vanished.
It's not pretty, but we hold the key to non-contagion: we can bring back stability by promising not to trigger A50 - if ONLY THEY JUST CUT US SOME FUCKING SLACK ON MIGRATION
They won't, newsnight tonight saying Juncker, Tusk, the French etc were ready to pack our bags for us. The Poles and Germans may be a bit more sympathetic but not much
Juncker and Tusk, fuck them. They are irrelevant. It is still the national governments which count especially Germany, Italy, France, Poland.
German would accommodate us (cars, geopolitics), the Poles too (all those Poles in the UK) Italy would get over it. France might be sticky, but they fear Le Pen and she trades on Brexit.
This is do-able, if the Europeans get moving and the Brits are proactive. We get a special Emergency Brake on migration. The FT was talking about it today. We go back to the people, they revote, REMAIN wins, crisis over.
For now.
If either of the final two Tory leadership candidates propose a second referendum they will lose.
Blimey. No one in Labour is under 6 on BF to be next leader. The betting is all over the place.
If there's a breakaway party Corbyn could be the Labour leader for life...
I wish there was a breakaway party, it's only FPTP that prevents it I suppose. Corbyn seems like he'd be happier with the SWP, and plenty of others would seem better aligned in other places.
Good night
Betting-relevant question: if the parliamentary Labour Party breaks from the Labour Party, which one counts for the purposes of bookmakers paying out on "next leader" bets.......?
Astonishing reversal of mood tonight in the comments sections of the popular press, as other people have pointed out elsewhere tonight. The confident anti-EU mood has vanished.
It's not pretty, but we hold the key to non-contagion: we can bring back stability by promising not to trigger A50 - if ONLY THEY JUST CUT US SOME FUCKING SLACK ON MIGRATION
They won't, newsnight tonight saying Juncker, Tusk, the French etc were ready to pack our bags for us. The Poles and Germans may be a bit more sympathetic but not much
Juncker and Tusk, fuck them. They are irrelevant. It is still the national governments which count especially Germany, Italy, France, Poland.
German would accommodate us (cars, geopolitics), the Poles too (all those Poles in the UK) Italy would get over it. France might be sticky, but they fear Le Pen and she trades on Brexit.
This is do-able, if the Europeans get moving and the Brits are proactive. We get a special Emergency Brake on migration. The FT was talking about it today. We go back to the people, they revote, REMAIN wins, crisis over.
For now.
If either of the final two Tory leadership candidates propose a second referendum they will lose.
Today is the first day that I've felt I'm missing out by not watching/reading Game of Thrones. I've not understood scores of references in tonight's comments!
SeanT - but then we lose any agreements with the Australia, Canada, India, Korea, USA, New Zealand - and I am not interested in Poland and points east.
Astonishing reversal of mood tonight in the comments sections of the popular press, as other people have pointed out elsewhere tonight. The confident anti-EU mood has vanished.
It's not pretty, but we hold the key to non-contagion: we can bring back stability by promising not to trigger A50 - if ONLY THEY JUST CUT US SOME FUCKING SLACK ON MIGRATION
They won't, newsnight tonight saying Juncker, Tusk, the French etc were ready to pack our bags for us. The Poles and Germans may be a bit more sympathetic but not much
Juncker and Tusk, fuck them. They are irrelevant. It is still the national governments which count especially Germany, Italy, France, Poland.
German would accommodate us (cars, geopolitics), the Poles too (all those Poles in the UK) Italy would get over it. France might be sticky, but they fear Le Pen and she trades on Brexit.
This is do-able, if the Europeans get moving and the Brits are proactive. We get a special Emergency Brake on migration. The FT was talking about it today. We go back to the people, they revote, REMAIN wins, crisis over.
For now.
If either of the final two Tory leadership candidates propose a second referendum they will lose.
Astonishing reversal of mood tonight in the comments sections of the popular press, as other people have pointed out elsewhere tonight. The confident anti-EU mood has vanished.
It's not pretty, but we hold the key to non-contagion: we can bring back stability by promising not to trigger A50 - if ONLY THEY JUST CUT US SOME FUCKING SLACK ON MIGRATION
They won't, newsnight tonight saying Juncker, Tusk, the French etc were ready to pack our bags for us. The Poles and Germans may be a bit more sympathetic but not much
Juncker and Tusk, fuck them. They are irrelevant. It is still the national governments which count especially Germany, Italy, France, Poland.
German would accommodate us (cars, geopolitics), the Poles too (all those Poles in the UK) Italy would get over it. France might be sticky, but they fear Le Pen and she trades on Brexit.
This is do-able, if the Europeans get moving and the Brits are proactive. We get a special Emergency Brake on migration. The FT was talking about it today. We go back to the people, they revote, REMAIN wins, crisis over.
For now.
If either of the final two Tory leadership candidates propose a second referendum they will lose.
What if they both do?
There will be a 2nd referendum. Is there a book on this?
Astonishing reversal of mood tonight in the comments sections of the popular press, as other people have pointed out elsewhere tonight. The confident anti-EU mood has vanished.
Nope. Of course confidence has reduced, we're past the realm of predictions and into gritty reality. Confidence can return once everyone in power gets a grip.
Which won't be until September at the earliest.
I'm not sure we have anywhere near that long for our poltics to fix itself.
Comments
I wonder to what extent the membership have a different set of priorities than MPs. And to what extent anti-Boris MPs might try to be strategic, therefore, about who they set up to play off against Boris.
Remain(corbyn model)
Remain(cameron model)
Remain(sturgeon model)
No, I do not expect population to fall. Immigration is only 50% of the projected population rise over the next decades, and only 50% of that is from the EU.
I have posted this a lot of times. The working age population may fall though as this was stable under ONS projections pre Brexit. Who knows what happens next.
As my source said "There is no plan"
We have a government in chaos, no-one at the helm, paliament going on its hols for the summer, and no plan.
I am glad I have a safe job and secure salary.
I think the cut off to vote was in May
In a few months there will be a general election. SNP, Greens, Labour and Liberals could well be pro-Indy. Good luck Tories getting much more than your 1 seat.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/jeremy-corbyn-parliamentary-labour-party-plp-meeting-told-to-quit-margaret-hodge-alan-johnson_uk_5771819ee4b08d2c5639bfc0?8x31qkp8qjiz4cxr
Epic trolling your Majesty
We really should be covering the US Presidential race and the horrific polling for Trump.
For the time being we're moving to five threads a day, not the usual three.
It's the path of least resistance if only the British political class can find a way to sell it to the voters.
Or maybe dyed....?
Aren't we supposed to lay the early favourite in Tory party contests?
'When will you trigger article 50'
I understand the temptation of going for straight EEA - it's easy. Though it would be a massive betrayal of a huge chunk of the Leave vote, the hit from that would fall disproportionately on Labour (who do have it coming).
However I personally don't think that that would be a tenable response to a vote that has finally engaged the "they're all the same" cynics: to ignore their central [valid] concern would only confirm their worst suspicions of the political process as a whole. Something (not necessarily that much) has to be done on freedom of movement, given the campaign we've just had.
http://gu.com/p/4mnxg?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard
There might even be an electoral arrangement if the other parties commit.
"Rosie from Coventry has some excellent ideas on solving the crisis in Gaza so I've asked her to be Shadow Foreign Secretary."
https://metrouk2.files.wordpress.com/2014/07/ad_141401982.jpg
Some of us were predicting that for ages.
My 90 year old grandmother tells me that the very first thing she thinks when she wakes up in the morning is: "I'm still alive then" LOL!
Labour, which really needs a post-Brexit position as a matter of some urgency, doesn't even seem to have a mechanism to discuss the key policy questions, being engulfed in a morass or personality politics.
Take Back Control
I've made my position on the futility of the petition, and that whatever the worthiness or not of a threshold for referenda there was not one in place and it is too late for Remainers now to wish there had been such a threshold, very clear, so won't belabor the point.
Perhaps you can tell me what point you were trying to make with your question, since as far as I can tell my comment was perfectly unambiguous - not all the signatures will be hacked, therefore there are a lot of signatures. Nothing but the facts.
Particular with WW3 to look forward to.
From a political point of view what matters is whether you can afford to upset those people, or at least, whether what you are getting sufficient strategic/economic/political "bang" for the your betrayal "buck". The size of the cost depends on how many people you're ticking off, how angry you're going to make them, and realistically, how likely they are to vote.
Anecdotal evidence and Ashcroft's poll suggest there were plenty of Leave voters for whom immigration was not a prime concern, and while there may be Remain voters for whom immigration was a concern but insufficient to drive their vote, so it seems likely that immigration concerns fall below the the threshold of a majority in their own right. But on pure weight of numbers, you're still looking at a fair chunk - a couple of million people who are likely to be seriously upset.
When you look at it from a Tory point of view - how likely are these people to vote, though? Are they likely to be people who only do so as a protest vote? For many in the WWC in the Labour heartlands - people who delivered the Leave victory - they are simply not "in play" for the Tories anyway, even if they do ever return to the ballot box. In Labour's safe seats it wouldn't matter even if thousands of them did turn blue! I did wonder if the Tories could try a landscape-changing "Northern Strategy" (a kind of reverse of the US Republican Southern Strategy) but I can't see that the numbers are there for them.
From a Tory electoral PoV, the maths backs dumping this portion of voters if there is even a slight reward for doing so. Since the fruit of accepting free movement of labour is likely a much better deal economically (so better chances at next GE) , it seems inevitable to me.
As one of the regular ads on this site pre-Thursday illustrated, it was also about not being governed by posh rich blokes.
I'm so confused.
I don't ever expect such a thing to be implemented - wasn't expecting my vote to be on the winning side of the referendum full stop! - and I accept, pragmatically, that free labour may have to form part of a post-Brexit settlement, so I wouldn't be seriously upset. I'm sure there are many other Leavers whose preferred immigration doesn't involve unlimited unskilled migration but who could stomach it, particularly if there's a more contributory approach to welfare.
Good night
Labour MPs have to go for the ending of Corybn's 'reign'. Do whatever it takes.
You think she _is_ Arya Stark?
Cersei's in King's Landing. She must be on her way there.
I'm not sure we have anywhere near that long for our poltics to fix itself.