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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theresa May 7% ahead of Johnson amongst CON voters in first
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theresa May 7% ahead of Johnson amongst CON voters in first leadership race poll
The detail of the YouGov CON leadership poll which has Johnson 7% behind amongst CON voters pic.twitter.com/sL1K6dQsSG
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Will give her full rights to back any course of action, including Indyref 2 to retain Scotland's membership. Greens and Labour will back. Liberals too possible. Tories will try to ammend to remove Independence option but will get voted down by SNP and Greens at least, possibly others.
Almost certain Nicola will get full mandate for second referendum.
I think May would be a great steady the ship leader, but not a great campaigner. Whilst Boris would be unlikely to lose in 2020 unless events kill the story brand.
A tough one.
I think that Boris has done himself serious harm in recent days - too many people regard him with amused contempt. His Achilles heel is that he just doesn't think things through, so people attach themselves to him because of the charisma and end up disappointed. May's edge is the same that Merkel had and to dsome extent still has - she's boring and solid at a time when people are getting tired of charlatans.
Danny Baker's tweets throughout this evening are like the combined voice of millions of England fans. Gems.
"Your pensions are safe, the markets are stable, the pound is stable". For effect he should have spoken in a trading room with the red screens behind him.
~ £80 underwater and holding for the moment.
He and Tissue Price are the only PBers who can influence me on this.
Though there are some 'Tories' who can influence me, I'll vote against whomever they are backing.
Even allowing for that, this is not an FPTP contest with 10 candidates. It cannot be repeated too often that this is initially an MP selection process which will end up with just two candidates presented to party members. As things stand, it's hard to see those two candidates being anyone other than Boris and Theresa. So the poll we need is one which is (a) based on a forced choice of those two, (b) of Conservative Party members, not voters or the general public, and (c) Is not a voodoo (AKA ConservativeHome) poll.
But yes, Theresa May has a very good chance, and should either be favourite, or on similar odds to Boris.
Personally I prefer May to Boris and EEA+EFTA to a bespoke deal.
In reality, I'm expecting none of them too.
It'll be May though.
Last week the country told us exactly what they're tired of = being hectored and patronised.
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/747501425861623808
" Special relationship will stay strong despite EU votes result.
Hillary Clinton has insisted that Americas special relationship with Britain will remain despite vote to leave EU. The presidential hopeful reconfirmed
"The common interests and values " of the two nations is a corner stone of American foreign policy.
Oh wait a minute.... We're we not meant to be at the back of the queue ?
Boris does need to squirm, so May needs to offer him a big job, maybe even chancellor, so he gets to explain why there is no £350m a week for the NHS. Every week.
He could refuse, but of course that would also be heavily publicised
Well we were talking of charlatans.....
You still saying the population will fall due to mass emigration?
You're an emotional wreck, have a few days off.
Like he says,hope wembley empty for next Qualifiers.
Edit: Perhaps a more interesting question is whether Osborne would.
https://twitter.com/Just_Greig/status/747540757481930753
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3661362/Immigration-NOT-reason-people-voted-leave-insists-Boris-Brexit-campaigner-suggests-Osborne-Foreign-Secretary-dream-ticket-replace-David-Cameron.html
I think a second referendum may even happen.
Or put in gameshow format:
Behind one door is a car, one a goat and one a bicycle.
You open one door and win the car
Monty Hall asks if you want to switch to one of the other doors.
You do.
That is what happened last week.
Remain
EEA
Swiss model
Canadian model
WTO
then Remain would almost certainly have won.
England 1 vs Iceland 2
I'm trying to see things from the PoV of a Remainer MP. (Bear in mind that some of these folk were not strong Remainers but were "persuaded" by government, by whatever means, to back the cause. But we can at least assume they range from moderately eurosceptic to eurolukewarm to the odd europhile.)
Is there any reason at all for them to opt for Boris when he has done so much damage to their party and, as they would see it, to the country/economy, and carries the obvious risks? I can think of three.
Firstly Boris is not a headbanging eurosceptic, if he can be described as a eurosceptic at all. His rough vision of Britain's future place in Europe is not far removed from what many Remain MPs would like to aim for given the current situation.
Secondly, there are bad optics if the leader comes from a pro-Remain background and carries out a "backdoor remain". Essentially, a leaver has a "right to compromise on behalf of the 48%" that a remainer does not. (Electorally the Tories can afford to lose many of the 48% without great bloodbath - many of them are generally non-voters, and those in Labour heartlands are essentially irrelevant to Tory strategy. Moreover many of those 48% were people who weighed up the decision and only opted for it narrowly, so a compromise would only cost a certain portion of them. But it is still healthier for that fraction to minimised.)
Thirdly, they may support Boris - not least for self-preservation instincts - if they see he has electoral appeal. For instance, he won twice in the difficult territory of London. He was deemed to have performed well in the Leave campaign and although he can't personally claim 17 million people voted for him, it seems likely that fewer nationwide would have have backed Brexit without him.
Weighed against the first of these reasons is that Boris is not a "details guy" so his capacity to extract a European position of his desire is in question. (In contrast to Brown though, he is good at delegating.) Weighed against the second, is that for a Leaver to backtrack may be seen as a betrayal. Weighed against the third, Boris would likely cause deep divisions in the Tory party (damaging electoral appeal and making retaining your seat harder). It seems likely his appointment would add momentum to the Scottish independence drive. He also carries a very serious risk of implosion, from all manner of sources: personal life, a bumbling approach to clarity (or indeed, truth), not someone who gives an impression of a "safe pair of hands " when crisis management skills are paramount...
Overall I can see Boris will have some grounds for support among MPs. But why is he such a heavy betting favourite?
No, I hadn't either.
1. We need to hear (as a matter of urgency) exactly what Brexit means and looks like with Boris and Gove.
2. We need to be convinced that Boris is genuinely serious about all of this. That it wasn't just a feud with a fellow Etonian that out of control. That he really, really is convinced about the merits of Brexit and wants to see this through to the end.
3. We need to know what Theresa thinks... The woman has basically kept her council for weeks and weeks, What is her vision of Brexit?
What's not to like?
If it's a final two of Boris v Theresa I'd currently be 1.75 Boris, 2.33 Theresa. But Theresa can win if she converts convincingly to Brexit. I reckon the members voted 70-30 or so for Out.
Dumbs gone to Iceland.
Any other party just has to say despite electing someone even remotely acceptable to the public Labour are always now just a heartbeat away from electing the same as JC
Next time though they could be in government when they do so.....
Tory landslide