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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theresa May 7% ahead of Johnson amongst CON voters in first

SystemSystem Posts: 12,465
edited June 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theresa May 7% ahead of Johnson amongst CON voters in first leadership race poll

The detail of the YouGov CON leadership poll which has Johnson 7% behind amongst CON voters pic.twitter.com/sL1K6dQsSG

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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,896
    TM4PM
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    Nicola Sturgeon taking forward a bill - including a second referendum - tomorrow in the Scottish Parliament.

    Will give her full rights to back any course of action, including Indyref 2 to retain Scotland's membership. Greens and Labour will back. Liberals too possible. Tories will try to ammend to remove Independence option but will get voted down by SNP and Greens at least, possibly others.

    Almost certain Nicola will get full mandate for second referendum.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,896
    What we really need is a poll of Tory members
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,410
    I thought Boris was a shoo in until this sense of panic and confusion descended on the political scene over the weekend and on Monday. At this moment in time, you can imagine why people would be more inclined to lean towards someone with a reputation for seriousness. As I mentioned on the previous thread, there's an unflappability about May that I can understand people might be drawn to at the moment, rather than a lot of waffle and noise from Johnson.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,832

    What we really need is a poll of Tory members

    A poll of the electorate? Madness!
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Really interested to see what Theresa's interpretation of Brexit is. Will she insist something is done on free movement?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,435
    Lowlander said:

    Nicola Sturgeon taking forward a bill - including a second referendum - tomorrow in the Scottish Parliament.

    Will give her full rights to back any course of action, including Indyref 2 to retain Scotland's membership. Greens and Labour will back. Liberals too possible. Tories will try to ammend to remove Independence option but will get voted down by SNP and Greens at least, possibly others.

    Almost certain Nicola will get full mandate for second referendum.

    You tend to get a mandate from the people :p
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,896

    Really interested to see what Theresa's interpretation of Brexit is. Will she insist something is done on free movement?

    She's former Bank of England, I reckon she'll go down the route of the greater good for the economy
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    People still looking at polls? There's an old lady at the end of Brighton Pier rubbing her hands together. Legalised fraudsters.
  • ThrakThrak Posts: 494
    From that it looks as though Johnson would be better off trying to become leader of UKIP
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,204
    I would find a choice between May and Boris very difficult.

    I think May would be a great steady the ship leader, but not a great campaigner. Whilst Boris would be unlikely to lose in 2020 unless events kill the story brand.

    A tough one.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,435

    TM4PM

    Don't vote Boris, even though you want him to squirm!
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,687
    And Labour slightly ahead in the same poll...

    I think that Boris has done himself serious harm in recent days - too many people regard him with amused contempt. His Achilles heel is that he just doesn't think things through, so people attach themselves to him because of the charisma and end up disappointed. May's edge is the same that Merkel had and to dsome extent still has - she's boring and solid at a time when people are getting tired of charlatans.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,410
    edited June 2016

    Really interested to see what Theresa's interpretation of Brexit is. Will she insist something is done on free movement?

    I'd hazard a guess that she'd be an EFTA-ite. Quick solution, calm things down, win back some sovereignty, give ourselves breathing space to get some other trade deals in place and pursue further reform or alternative options at a later date. The small c conservative option.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 5,036
    Does that weighted sample imply Con 34 Lab 35 LD 11 UKIP 20? (scaled down a bit for "others) ?
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,732

    I thought Boris was a shoo in until this sense of panic and confusion descended on the political scene over the weekend and on Monday. At this moment in time, you can imagine why people would be more inclined to lean towards someone with a reputation for seriousness. As I mentioned on the previous thread, there's an unflappability about May that I can understand people might be drawn to at the moment, rather than a lot of waffle and noise from Johnson.

    Given the mood of the Commons today, I can see why he is keeping silent. He might actually have had a rougher hearing than Corbyn.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2016

    And Labour slightly ahead in the same poll...

    I think that Boris has done himself serious harm in recent days - too many people regard him with amused contempt. His Achilles heel is that he just doesn't think things through, so people attach themselves to him because of the charisma and end up disappointed. May's edge is the same that Merkel had and to dsome extent still has - she's boring and solid at a time when people are getting tired of charlatans.

    Labour being ahead in the polls is like gold dust for Corbyn and his supporters. It would obviously be so much easier for his opponents if they were 10% behind.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    And Labour slightly ahead in the same poll...

    I think that Boris has done himself serious harm in recent days - too many people regard him with amused contempt. His Achilles heel is that he just doesn't think things through, so people attach themselves to him because of the charisma and end up disappointed. May's edge is the same that Merkel had and to dsome extent still has - she's boring and solid at a time when people are getting tired of charlatans.

    What evidence do you have that people are tiring of charlatans? Name the charlatans.
  • CopperSulphateCopperSulphate Posts: 1,119
    Been out today, did Boris really not show up at the House of Commons today?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,531
    Mortimer said:

    I would find a choice between May and Boris very difficult.

    Which of the two gets me EEA/EFTA the fastest?

  • pinkrosepinkrose Posts: 189

    Really interested to see what Theresa's interpretation of Brexit is. Will she insist something is done on free movement?

    She's former Bank of England, I reckon she'll go down the route of the greater good for the economy
    Even up until 2 days before the referendum she was on the TV saying we need to reform free movement, even though she was backing Remain (although not enthusiastically). She also made that very strong speech on immigration at the Tory party conference, where she talked about communities being overwhelmed, wages pushed down, services stretched and said numbers from EU too high and serious reform needed to bring them down.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,435

    Does that weighted sample imply Con 34 Lab 35 LD 11 UKIP 20? (scaled down a bit for "others) ?

    Was the poll before or after half the shadow cabinet resigned? *innocent face*
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    FPT:

    I wouldn't believe any UK poll right now. They have been hilariously wrong on two massive occasions in the last year now. I would love May to be our next PM though - she's by far the best option out of an underwhelming bunch. Boris and Osborne shouldn't be anywhere near the Conservative leadership.

    On the game, I called it regarding this England team months ago. Qualifiers and friendlies cannot be used as a measurement of this team - they simply don't have a tournament mentality in the way teams like Germany and Italy do. Even the Welsh have been mentally stronger this year than us FFS. Rooney and Kane were totally dire tonight, and Kane has been terrible throughout this entire tournament. Roy should have started Rashford.

    I admit May seems like the best choice given where the country is at the moment. No matter what you think of her otherwise, she does give off an air of unflappability and seriousness which is exactly what we need at the moment. A steady hand on the tiller.

    Backed remain, but kept her head down (some might say tactically) and is widely considered eurosceptic. A fair compromise for the membership, I'd have thought.
    I definitely think May's absence for much of the campaign was tactical. I think the trouble for Leavers, is that none of their leading lights look like good leadership prospects for the country. Boris would be a total disaster as PM, for example. And I hardly think the country is crying out for Grayling, IDS, or Gove either.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,204
    viewcode said:

    Mortimer said:

    I would find a choice between May and Boris very difficult.

    Which of the two gets me EEA/EFTA the fastest?

    Ask Monty Hall?
  • William_HWilliam_H Posts: 346
    Would it be surprising if Tory members were more like UKIP supporters than Tory supporters?
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    Totally unrelated to anything much.

    Danny Baker's tweets throughout this evening are like the combined voice of millions of England fans. Gems.

  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,081
    edited June 2016
    Boris is the new comical Ali

    "Your pensions are safe, the markets are stable, the pound is stable". For effect he should have spoken in a trading room with the red screens behind him.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,398
    Very early days yet, Boris started slowly when the referendum headed up too. And I've heard alot of contradictory advice on the betting strat for Tory leader. My book quite frankly is a mess.

    ~ £80 underwater and holding for the moment.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Ignore the polls/experts.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,896
    RobD said:

    TM4PM

    Don't vote Boris, even though you want him to squirm!
    I will consult with JohnO before I cast my vote.

    He and Tissue Price are the only PBers who can influence me on this.

    Though there are some 'Tories' who can influence me, I'll vote against whomever they are backing.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited June 2016

    And Labour slightly ahead in the same poll...

    I think that Boris has done himself serious harm in recent days - too many people regard him with amused contempt. His Achilles heel is that he just doesn't think things through, so people attach themselves to him because of the charisma and end up disappointed. May's edge is the same that Merkel had and to dsome extent still has - she's boring and solid at a time when people are getting tired of charlatans.

    What evidence do you have that people are tiring of charlatans? Name the charlatans.
    On the contrary charlatans are clearly popular, probably more popular than ever. They won a referenum just a few days ago.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    AndyJS said:

    And Labour slightly ahead in the same poll...

    I think that Boris has done himself serious harm in recent days - too many people regard him with amused contempt. His Achilles heel is that he just doesn't think things through, so people attach themselves to him because of the charisma and end up disappointed. May's edge is the same that Merkel had and to dsome extent still has - she's boring and solid at a time when people are getting tired of charlatans.

    Labour being ahead in the polls is like gold dust for Corbyn and his supporters. It would obviously be so much easier for his opponents if they were 10% behind.
    Not necessarily. People were prepared to sit tight when it looked like Labour was going to lose whatever. If it looks as if they might have a chance to win...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,435

    RobD said:

    TM4PM

    Don't vote Boris, even though you want him to squirm!
    I will consult with JohnO before I cast my vote.

    He and Tissue Price are the only PBers who can influence me on this.

    Though there are some 'Tories' who can influence me, I'll vote against whomever they are backing.
    I should VM them in advance ;)
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited June 2016
    Not sure how much use this particular poll is, except perhaps as a guide for MPs as to general electability. But I think MPs will use their own judgement, not polls, for that - this is a very volatile time, and public opinion can switch fast.

    Even allowing for that, this is not an FPTP contest with 10 candidates. It cannot be repeated too often that this is initially an MP selection process which will end up with just two candidates presented to party members. As things stand, it's hard to see those two candidates being anyone other than Boris and Theresa. So the poll we need is one which is (a) based on a forced choice of those two, (b) of Conservative Party members, not voters or the general public, and (c) Is not a voodoo (AKA ConservativeHome) poll.

    But yes, Theresa May has a very good chance, and should either be favourite, or on similar odds to Boris.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,732

    Been out today, did Boris really not show up at the House of Commons today?

    He did not. It was, er, noted by participants.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,991
    I'll be voting for May if it's her vs Boris a final two.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,531

    May's edge is the same that Merkel had (and to some extent still has) she's boring and solid at a time when people are getting tired of charlatans.

    Amen

  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    edited June 2016
    Does anyone here object to EEA+EFTA?

    Personally I prefer May to Boris and EEA+EFTA to a bespoke deal.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,204
    edited June 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    Very early days yet, Boris started slowly when the referendum headed up too. And I've heard alot of contradictory advice on the betting strat for Tory leader. My book quite frankly is a mess.

    ~ £80 underwater and holding for the moment.

    I'm in a similar position - have had to pivot that particular book so many times. For my book's sake, I'm hoping Rudd, Clark and Jesse Norman stand.

    In reality, I'm expecting none of them too.
  • MontyMonty Posts: 346
    I'd love it to be Boris because he has a lot of responsibility for this mess and I'd like to see him squirm then crash and burn.
    It'll be May though.
  • William_HWilliam_H Posts: 346
    Slightly random thought: Our constitution seems to be poorly set up to handle extended leadership campaigns that come with democratic party institutions. Moments where we most need leadership are also moments where at least one major party is liable to be stuck with a lame duck or interim leader.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    And Labour slightly ahead in the same poll...

    I think that Boris has done himself serious harm in recent days - too many people regard him with amused contempt. His Achilles heel is that he just doesn't think things through, so people attach themselves to him because of the charisma and end up disappointed. May's edge is the same that Merkel had and to dsome extent still has - she's boring and solid at a time when people are getting tired of charlatans.

    What evidence do you have that people are tiring of charlatans? Name the charlatans.
    On the contrary charlatans are clearly popular, probably more popular than ever. They won a referenum just a few days ago.
    You lot need to make your minds up it seems, one says the charlatans won, the other that we're tired of them.

    Last week the country told us exactly what they're tired of = being hectored and patronised.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,081
    edited June 2016
    I'll be voting for Boris ofc. Where do I sign up?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,304

    And Labour slightly ahead in the same poll...

    I think that Boris has done himself serious harm in recent days - too many people regard him with amused contempt. His Achilles heel is that he just doesn't think things through, so people attach themselves to him because of the charisma and end up disappointed. May's edge is the same that Merkel had and to dsome extent still has - she's boring and solid at a time when people are getting tired of charlatans.

    What evidence do you have that people are tiring of charlatans? Name the charlatans.
    On the contrary charlatans are clearly popular, probably more popular than ever. They won a referenum just a few days ago.
    Whichever side won the charlatans would have won. Both are as bad as each other. They are politicians after all.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,204
    Tom Newton Dunn is a seriously impressive comentator. I spent my weekend with a number of metropolitan remainers - they all laughed at me when I said how good the Sun's political judgement was. Almost sneered.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    murali_s said:

    I'll be voting for Boris ofc. Where do I sign up?

    Too late. We're not complete idiots.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    And Labour slightly ahead in the same poll...

    I think that Boris has done himself serious harm in recent days - too many people regard him with amused contempt. His Achilles heel is that he just doesn't think things through, so people attach themselves to him because of the charisma and end up disappointed. May's edge is the same that Merkel had and to dsome extent still has - she's boring and solid at a time when people are getting tired of charlatans.

    What evidence do you have that people are tiring of charlatans? Name the charlatans.
    On the contrary charlatans are clearly popular, probably more popular than ever. They won a referenum just a few days ago.
    You lot need to make your minds up it seems, one says the charlatans won, the other that we're tired of them.

    Last week the country told us exactly what they're tired of = being hectored and patronised.
    From what my friend at the FCO said earlier tonight, the shitstorm has not even begun.
  • annakannak Posts: 14

    Not sure how much use this particular poll is, except perhaps as a guide for MPs as to general electability. But I think MPs will use their own judgement, not polls, for that - this is a very volatile time, and public opinion can switch fast.

    Even allowing for that, this is not an FPTP contest with 10 candidates. It cannot be repeated too often that this is initially an MP selection process which will end up with just two candidates presented to party members. As things stand, it's hard to see those two candidates being anyone other than Boris and Theresa. So the poll we need is one which is (a) based on a forced choice of those two, (b) of Conservative Party members, not voters or the general public, and (c) Is not a voodoo (AKA ConservativeHome) poll.

    But yes, Theresa May has a very good chance, and should either be favourite, or on similar odds to Boris.

    Would David Cameron accepted a seat in cabinet under a new PM?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    MaxPB said:

    I'll be voting for May if it's her vs Boris a final two.

    You're a Leaver too, aren't you? Another straw in the wind.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Evening Standard 27th June 2016

    " Special relationship will stay strong despite EU votes result.

    Hillary Clinton has insisted that Americas special relationship with Britain will remain despite vote to leave EU. The presidential hopeful reconfirmed
    "The common interests and values " of the two nations is a corner stone of American foreign policy.

    Oh wait a minute.... We're we not meant to be at the back of the queue ?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    It should be May because she stands the best chance of getting us out of this clusterfuck

    Boris does need to squirm, so May needs to offer him a big job, maybe even chancellor, so he gets to explain why there is no £350m a week for the NHS. Every week.

    He could refuse, but of course that would also be heavily publicised
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    And Labour slightly ahead in the same poll...

    I think that Boris has done himself serious harm in recent days - too many people regard him with amused contempt. His Achilles heel is that he just doesn't think things through, so people attach themselves to him because of the charisma and end up disappointed. May's edge is the same that Merkel had and to dsome extent still has - she's boring and solid at a time when people are getting tired of charlatans.

    What evidence do you have that people are tiring of charlatans? Name the charlatans.
    On the contrary charlatans are clearly popular, probably more popular than ever. They won a referenum just a few days ago.
    You lot need to make your minds up it seems, one says the charlatans won, the other that we're tired of them.

    Last week the country told us exactly what they're tired of = being hectored and patronised.
    From what my friend at the FCO said earlier tonight, the shitstorm has not even begun.
    Your friend at the FCO?

    Well we were talking of charlatans.....

    You still saying the population will fall due to mass emigration?

    You're an emotional wreck, have a few days off.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Y0kel said:

    Totally unrelated to anything much.

    Danny Baker's tweets throughout this evening are like the combined voice of millions of England fans. Gems.

    It is - lol

    Like he says,hope wembley empty for next Qualifiers.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited June 2016
    annak said:

    Not sure how much use this particular poll is, except perhaps as a guide for MPs as to general electability. But I think MPs will use their own judgement, not polls, for that - this is a very volatile time, and public opinion can switch fast.

    Even allowing for that, this is not an FPTP contest with 10 candidates. It cannot be repeated too often that this is initially an MP selection process which will end up with just two candidates presented to party members. As things stand, it's hard to see those two candidates being anyone other than Boris and Theresa. So the poll we need is one which is (a) based on a forced choice of those two, (b) of Conservative Party members, not voters or the general public, and (c) Is not a voodoo (AKA ConservativeHome) poll.

    But yes, Theresa May has a very good chance, and should either be favourite, or on similar odds to Boris.

    Would David Cameron accepted a seat in cabinet under a new PM?
    I doubt it.

    Edit: Perhaps a more interesting question is whether Osborne would.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,081

    murali_s said:

    I'll be voting for Boris ofc. Where do I sign up?

    Too late. We're not complete idiots.
    Gutted!! I am a part time PB Tory.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,975
    Aren't we supposed to lay the early favourite in Tory leadership contests?
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Mortimer said:

    Tom Newton Dunn is a seriously impressive comentator. I spent my weekend with a number of metropolitan remainers - they all laughed at me when I said how good the Sun's political judgement was. Almost sneered.

    Why doesn't that surprise me.
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    There is gonna be so much comedy in tonight's result.

    https://twitter.com/Just_Greig/status/747540757481930753
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,520
    May leads with Tories, Labour voters and LDs, Boris with UKIP voters. She has 8 times Boris' support with Remainers, and over half of his support with Leave voters. She is clearly the best candidate to unite the country now
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,031
    May's "eurosceptic" support for Remain should rule her out.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,304
    MP_SE said:

    Does anyone here object to EEA+EFTA?

    Personally I prefer May to Boris and EEA+EFTA to a bespoke deal.

    It's been my aim all along.
  • RealBritainRealBritain Posts: 255
    Astonishing reversal of mood tonight in the comments sections of the popular press, as other people have pointed out elsewhere tonight. The confident anti-EU mood has vanished.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3661362/Immigration-NOT-reason-people-voted-leave-insists-Boris-Brexit-campaigner-suggests-Osborne-Foreign-Secretary-dream-ticket-replace-David-Cameron.html

    I think a second referendum may even happen.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    So Boris is our next PM and negotiates membership of the EEA - his preferred option - which means we're out of the EU but still have lots of Poles, Latvians etc coming and going. Given that's not what the closet, and no so closet racists who voted Leave wanted, how long do you think he'll last?
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    Mortimer said:

    Tom Newton Dunn is a seriously impressive comentator. I spent my weekend with a number of metropolitan remainers - they all laughed at me when I said how good the Sun's political judgement was. Almost sneered.

    I first suspected Leave was going to win on Thursday night when he mentioned that private exit poll showing Leave in the lead.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    MP_SE said:

    Does anyone here object to EEA+EFTA?

    Personally I prefer May to Boris and EEA+EFTA to a bespoke deal.

    It is the least crap of a lot of crap choices.

    Or put in gameshow format:

    Behind one door is a car, one a goat and one a bicycle.

    You open one door and win the car

    Monty Hall asks if you want to switch to one of the other doors.

    You do.

    That is what happened last week.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,398
    Jus seen the vid of Corbyn on the bus. Doesn't look like a man who is going anywhere.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    DanSmith said:

    Mortimer said:

    Tom Newton Dunn is a seriously impressive comentator. I spent my weekend with a number of metropolitan remainers - they all laughed at me when I said how good the Sun's political judgement was. Almost sneered.

    I first suspected Leave was going to win on Thursday night when he mentioned that private exit poll showing Leave in the lead.
    I first suspected it when the returning officer for the Newcastle count was about to ball whilst reading the result, she knew the closeness meant it must be all over.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    Much is being made of how we should all accept that out won but we do not know what Leavers want. If the referendum had had 5 choices

    Remain
    EEA
    Swiss model
    Canadian model
    WTO

    then Remain would almost certainly have won.
  • MontyHallMontyHall Posts: 226
    If you flood the market with immigrants putting the native born out of a job and leaving the youth to kick their heels so you can pay cheaper wages and not train youngsters, the country suffers

    England 1 vs Iceland 2
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    FPT there was some discussion whether Boris would even make final two, given how MPs currently regard him.

    I'm trying to see things from the PoV of a Remainer MP. (Bear in mind that some of these folk were not strong Remainers but were "persuaded" by government, by whatever means, to back the cause. But we can at least assume they range from moderately eurosceptic to eurolukewarm to the odd europhile.)

    Is there any reason at all for them to opt for Boris when he has done so much damage to their party and, as they would see it, to the country/economy, and carries the obvious risks? I can think of three.

    Firstly Boris is not a headbanging eurosceptic, if he can be described as a eurosceptic at all. His rough vision of Britain's future place in Europe is not far removed from what many Remain MPs would like to aim for given the current situation.

    Secondly, there are bad optics if the leader comes from a pro-Remain background and carries out a "backdoor remain". Essentially, a leaver has a "right to compromise on behalf of the 48%" that a remainer does not. (Electorally the Tories can afford to lose many of the 48% without great bloodbath - many of them are generally non-voters, and those in Labour heartlands are essentially irrelevant to Tory strategy. Moreover many of those 48% were people who weighed up the decision and only opted for it narrowly, so a compromise would only cost a certain portion of them. But it is still healthier for that fraction to minimised.)

    Thirdly, they may support Boris - not least for self-preservation instincts - if they see he has electoral appeal. For instance, he won twice in the difficult territory of London. He was deemed to have performed well in the Leave campaign and although he can't personally claim 17 million people voted for him, it seems likely that fewer nationwide would have have backed Brexit without him.

    Weighed against the first of these reasons is that Boris is not a "details guy" so his capacity to extract a European position of his desire is in question. (In contrast to Brown though, he is good at delegating.) Weighed against the second, is that for a Leaver to backtrack may be seen as a betrayal. Weighed against the third, Boris would likely cause deep divisions in the Tory party (damaging electoral appeal and making retaining your seat harder). It seems likely his appointment would add momentum to the Scottish independence drive. He also carries a very serious risk of implosion, from all manner of sources: personal life, a bumbling approach to clarity (or indeed, truth), not someone who gives an impression of a "safe pair of hands " when crisis management skills are paramount...

    Overall I can see Boris will have some grounds for support among MPs. But why is he such a heavy betting favourite?
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Weird market on betfair. You can back Osborne at 85 to be PM after Cameron, and lay him at 36 to be next Tory leader. What's the scenario?
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    kle4 said:
    Ok let's presume all are legit. I still don't get what point are you trying to make?
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    First honest thing Osborne has said in ages
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,204
    alex. said:

    Weird market on betfair. You can back Osborne at 85 to be PM after Cameron, and lay him at 36 to be next Tory leader. What's the scenario?

    Poor liquidity?
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,129
    MP_SE said:

    Does anyone here object to EEA+EFTA?

    Personally I prefer May to Boris and EEA+EFTA to a bespoke deal.

    That option wasn't on the ballot paper - did someone sneak in a Vow when we were looking elsewhere?
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    MP_SE said:

    Does anyone here object to EEA+EFTA?

    Personally I prefer May to Boris and EEA+EFTA to a bespoke deal.

    It is the least crap of a lot of crap choices.

    Or put in gameshow format:

    Behind one door is a car, one a goat and one a bicycle.

    You open one door and win the car

    Monty Hall asks if you want to switch to one of the other doors.

    You do.

    That is what happened last week.
    The car was a Lada.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    alex. said:

    Weird market on betfair. You can back Osborne at 85 to be PM after Cameron, and lay him at 36 to be next Tory leader. What's the scenario?

    There's all sorts of quasi-arbs between the two markets if you've got the cash. I can't see a realistic scenario where they don't settle as the same.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited June 2016
    Apparently someone called Nic Dakin has resigned from the Labour front bench.

    No, I hadn't either.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,908
    I don't think we know enough yet to judge where this is going.

    1. We need to hear (as a matter of urgency) exactly what Brexit means and looks like with Boris and Gove.

    2. We need to be convinced that Boris is genuinely serious about all of this. That it wasn't just a feud with a fellow Etonian that out of control. That he really, really is convinced about the merits of Brexit and wants to see this through to the end.

    3. We need to know what Theresa thinks... The woman has basically kept her council for weeks and weeks, What is her vision of Brexit?
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Pulpstar said:

    Jus seen the vid of Corbyn on the bus. Doesn't look like a man who is going anywhere.

    The bus had broken down?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,975
    Boris has won two mayoral elections in Labour-leaning London, and has just won a national referendum.

    What's not to like?
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    If it's May vs Corbyn and she's upfront on what her credible Brexit strategy is I may cast a once in a lifetime Conservative vote in an Autumn election. Lots and lots of variables between now and then but....
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    Overall I can see Boris will have some grounds for support among MPs. But why is he such a heavy betting favourite?

    Iain Dale said yesterday that he had enough MPs to make the ballot [not 100% clear if that meant the final two, mind]. With Gove's support that's plausible; all the more so if Osborne might back him.

    If it's a final two of Boris v Theresa I'd currently be 1.75 Boris, 2.33 Theresa. But Theresa can win if she converts convincingly to Brexit. I reckon the members voted 70-30 or so for Out.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,908
    You could tell the man was finished from how he looked when he sat next to Cameron in HoC today. Night of the living dead....
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    Seems the Sun headline is :smile:

    Dumbs gone to Iceland.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Re thread header
    Any other party just has to say despite electing someone even remotely acceptable to the public Labour are always now just a heartbeat away from electing the same as JC

    Next time though they could be in government when they do so.....

    Tory landslide
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,204

    Overall I can see Boris will have some grounds for support among MPs. But why is he such a heavy betting favourite?

    Iain Dale said yesterday that he had enough MPs to make the ballot [not 100% clear if that meant the final two, mind]. With Gove's support that's plausible; all the more so if Osborne might back him.

    If it's a final two of Boris v Theresa I'd currently be 1.75 Boris, 2.33 Theresa. But Theresa can win if she converts convincingly to Brexit. I reckon the members voted 70-30 or so for Out.
    Can't argue with that logic at all. But I think it is a big if. If I were May, I'd be more worried about a more charismatic insurgent stop Boris candidate at this stage.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2016
    Watching and listening to Angela Eagle today was an uncomfortable experience because she was genuinely upset at what was going on.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Astonishing reversal of mood tonight in the comments sections of the popular press, as other people have pointed out elsewhere tonight. The confident anti-EU mood has vanished.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3661362/Immigration-NOT-reason-people-voted-leave-insists-Boris-Brexit-campaigner-suggests-Osborne-Foreign-Secretary-dream-ticket-replace-David-Cameron.html

    I think a second referendum may even happen.

    On the other hand, ITV News had a vox-pop from Mansfield tonight where all Leave voters interviewed were still stood by their choice, anger at other people's refusal to accept the result, and putting the blame for the pound falling on our politicians "talking the economy down".
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    GIN1138 said:

    I don't think we know enough yet to judge where this is going.

    1. We need to hear (as a matter of urgency) exactly what Brexit means and looks like with Boris and Gove.

    2. We need to be convinced that Boris is genuinely serious about all of this. That it wasn't just a feud with a fellow Etonian that out of control. That he really, really is convinced about the merits of Brexit and wants to see this through to the end.

    3. We need to know what Theresa thinks... The woman has basically kept her council for weeks and weeks, What is her vision of Brexit?

    There surely must be some members who start going wobbly. They can't all be automatons.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,180
    Perhaps the only thing preventing mass defections/splits is that MPs in both parties want to play a part in the respective leadership elections.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,031
    EEA+ EFTA implies free movement. It would be a betrayal of the WWC voters for Brexit (though I personally wouldn't be unhappy about it). I think it would be better to begin by unilaterally removing tariffs under WTO rules, and simultaneously apply restrictions on *new* migrants while preserving rights of existing migrants, and seek similar arrangements with former EU partners wrt their immigrants from UK.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited June 2016

    Overall I can see Boris will have some grounds for support among MPs. But why is he such a heavy betting favourite?

    Iain Dale said yesterday that he had enough MPs to make the ballot [not 100% clear if that meant the final two, mind]. With Gove's support that's plausible; all the more so if Osborne might back him.

    If it's a final two of Boris v Theresa I'd currently be 1.75 Boris, 2.33 Theresa. But Theresa can win if she converts convincingly to Brexit. I reckon the members voted 70-30 or so for Out.
    I don't think it will be decided on Leave v Remain - that decision has been taken - but on credibility in sorting out the mess. Theresa May clearly has the advantage of being competent, reliable and solid, Boris has the advantage of having seized the political initiative which gives him a quasi-mandate. But I think his advantage in that respect has a limited lifetime and could go into reverse.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,936
    A choice between a steady personality, who admittedly doesn't have anything very compelling going for her and Comical Ali.
This discussion has been closed.