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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Might Balls be Labour’s answer at 100/1?

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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,772

    I think we're in territory where we need to get on with a true realignment. Any would-be Labour leader should be considering whether they'd be better off founding a new party or defecting.

    Nobody trusts a defector anymore, and no one will want to take risk of founding a new party.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited June 2016
    alex. said:

    Scott_P said:

    @iainjwatson: 1/2 I'm told by well placed source that #Labour party has legal advice that Jeremy Corbyn would NOT automatically be on leadership ballot

    @iainjwatson: 2/2 but that Labour's NEC could over rule this and ensure he is on the ballot but might be open to messy legal challenge

    If Labout MPs don't put Corbyn forward for election they will be deselected by their local party.
    Why is everyone so certain that Corbyn has the support of the local parties? Even the selectorate who would have been heavily EU? Talk of at least a couple of motions of no confidence passed already.
    Because everyone outside the PLP hates the PLP.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,951
    Is Balls up for fixing this balls up? Kept us out of the Euro, so has credentials. But has a nice life

    It would be hugely refreshing.
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    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited June 2016

    We need the Boundary Commission to finalise the new constituencies.
    Should focus MPs minds, especially REMAIN MPs who are at odds with their LEAVE activists.
    Expect plenty of threat of de-selection if MPs don't go along with BREXIT.

    Due to see first draft in"autumn" 2016.
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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    edited June 2016

    tyson said:

    SeanT said:

    Jonathan said:

    This is knackering. You try to escape and this monumental clusterfuck sucks you back in.

    I'm still not getting any fucking work done.

    Aaaaaargh

    Somebody asked me pre-thread what might induce buyer's remorse, in me (Bremorse is the technical term). If this howling chaos continues that might do it, simply because I need to concentrate, and earn some bloody cash.
    You'll need that cash pal to offset your negative equity.

    Lower house prices are good for those seeking to buy a house and those seeking to buy a more expensive house.

    Higher house prices only benefit those exiting the housing market or downsizing.


    Note also a lower pound is good for UK exports, especially when we have such a need to increase exports and close the big trade gap.
    Depends how many of their raw materials they have to import to build their exported products.

    Affordability of housing as dependent on mortgage rates as actual prices. And anyway if the housing market is sustained by foreign buyers isn't there a chance that they will continue to rise with a falling pound. With quantitative easing as well.
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    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,358
    SeanT said:

    Where the F is Osborne?

    I can maybe understand Cameron keeping a low profile, for a couple of days, he must be in shock. But the Chancellor of the Exchequer should be on the TV 24/7, reassuring the markets, offering alternatives, yet zip.

    Dereliction of duty.

    Perhaps he doesn't have anything to reassure them with.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Im wondering if all this will do real and lasting damage to facebook in the UK

    I don't know about that but Miss Plato pointed us to a jolly good article the other day the essence of which was Facebook and Twitter are enabling their users to live in silo's or echo chambers in which they never get to hear a contrary opinion and this is ruining political discourse.

    Unfortunately I did not make a note of its address, but Miss P might have it. Well worth a read.
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    Speedy said:

    Wont it be a hoot if Podemos win the Spanish Election, they look like a Hybrid of UKIP and Dave Spart.

    EU has far more to lose from Brexit than we do

    We forgot that there are elections in Spain today.
    We also forgot that Greece was patched up to keep tbem just going long enough so as not to give a boost to the Brexit referendum.
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    OUTOUT Posts: 569
    SeanT said:

    Where the F is Osborne?

    I can maybe understand Cameron keeping a low profile, for a couple of days, he must be in shock. But the Chancellor of the Exchequer should be on the TV 24/7, reassuring the markets, offering alternatives, yet zip.

    Dereliction of duty.

    The Chanellor's new clothes.
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    alex. said:

    SeanT said:

    Where the F is Osborne?

    I can maybe understand Cameron keeping a low profile, for a couple of days, he must be in shock. But the Chancellor of the Exchequer should be on the TV 24/7, reassuring the markets, offering alternatives, yet zip.

    Dereliction of duty.

    To be fair I'm not sure he's really the man for publicly reassuring the markets given what he said before the referendum.
    Everyone one knew he was lying.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,590
    kle4 said:

    I think we're in territory where we need to get on with a true realignment. Any would-be Labour leader should be considering whether they'd be better off founding a new party or defecting.

    Nobody trusts a defector anymore, and no one will want to take risk of founding a new party.
    Founding a new party is a risk, but when the two parties of government are in disarray simultaneously there will never be a better time, otherwise the chances of the Lib Dems coming through the middle shouldn't be written off.

    Brexit could be the new Black Wednesday in destroying the reputation of the Tories to deliver competent, stable government.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @juliamacfarlane: European Union will not make Britain any fresh offers to keep it in the bloc, German Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel says - Reuters
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    I'll just leave this here. Someone telling Mike to stop tweeting about betting on politics

    https://twitter.com/TomJamesScott/status/747052029974036480

    He is right you know, the betting markets are a terrible predictor.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,724

    tyson said:

    SeanT said:

    Jonathan said:

    This is knackering. You try to escape and this monumental clusterfuck sucks you back in.

    I'm still not getting any fucking work done.

    Aaaaaargh

    Somebody asked me pre-thread what might induce buyer's remorse, in me (Bremorse is the technical term). If this howling chaos continues that might do it, simply because I need to concentrate, and earn some bloody cash.
    You'll need that cash pal to offset your negative equity.

    Lower house prices are good for those seeking to buy a house and those seeking to buy a more expensive house. The majority.

    Higher house prices only benefit those exiting the housing market or downsizing.


    Note also a lower pound is good for UK exports, especially when we have such a need to increase exports and close the big trade gap.
    Lower house prices is one of the few potential silver linings, but only if everything else doesn't collapse as well.

    A lower £ is only good news if it doesn't lead to an inflation-interest rates spiral.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,068
    Mr. T, he may be actually doing some exit planning [which should've been done weeks and months ago].

    I'm also not getting much work done (in a sea of redrafting, currently).

    Mr. Glenn, a major political realignment could happen.

    If the likes of Yorkshire First et al. were further down the road, an alliance of such parties with the SNP against the referendum result might actually have a credible chance of forming a loose coalition government. But the English local parties aren't in a state to pounce on this opportunity, if there's a snap election.
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    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited June 2016

    Wont it be a hoot if Podemos win the Spanish Election, they look like a Hybrid of UKIP and Dave Spart.

    EU has far more to lose from Brexit than we do

    You can see it in Merkel's climb-down. Despite our tepid involvement we were a counterbalance to the mediterranean states. Everyone in Europe will now be questioning whether the new powerbalance is in any of their interest.
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    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,047
    SeanT said:

    Where the F is Osborne?

    I can maybe understand Cameron keeping a low profile, for a couple of days, he must be in shock. But the Chancellor of the Exchequer should be on the TV 24/7, reassuring the markets, offering alternatives, yet zip.

    Dereliction of duty.

    https://scontent-lhr3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/13510793_1038811039549315_8030535941654667943_n.jpg?oh=16de48ff850836dde93a62439e562c2f&oe=57F259EE
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    Justine Greening: The country can’t wait until October. Johnson and May should reach an agreement – and take over now.

    http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2016/06/justine-greening-the-country-cant-wait-until-october-johnson-and-may-should-reach-an-agreement-and-take-over-now.html

    Interesting. Boris leader and May chancellor in a joint coronation?
    No. All Remain supporting MPs must be decimated. Those that survive will be permitted to sit quietly, and obey their Leave overlords.
    Theresa May is about as Remain supporting as Jeremy Corbyn
    The referendum was a binary choice. They were either 100% Remain or 100% Leave.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,590
    Scott_P said:

    @juliamacfarlane: European Union will not make Britain any fresh offers to keep it in the bloc, German Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel says - Reuters

    That sounds like a confirmation that fresh offers are on the table.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Survation Poll:

    Boris v Theresa

    All voters: 50-50
    Current Tory: 50-50
    2015 Tory 47-53 (Theresa)
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,951
    SeanT said:

    Where the F is Osborne?

    I can maybe understand Cameron keeping a low profile, for a couple of days, he must be in shock. But the Chancellor of the Exchequer should be on the TV 24/7, reassuring the markets, offering alternatives, yet zip.

    Dereliction of duty.

    Too right. The fact the government and leading Leavers have all naffed off is shameful. They should have been doing reassurance 24/7. The fact Blair is the most statesmanlike is telling.

    Fwiw I give Dave a bye, but not the rest.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,772
    Reason Labour will not back a second referendum or rejoining the EU, no.1
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,377
    MP_SE said:

    Pulpstar said:

    My Facebook has become more political than this website now !

    Had someone on WhatsApp claim a points based immigration system is racist so will look to move to either Australia or Canada...
    There are some real idiots out and about.
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    SeanT said:

    Where the F is Osborne?

    I can maybe understand Cameron keeping a low profile, for a couple of days, he must be in shock. But the Chancellor of the Exchequer should be on the TV 24/7, reassuring the markets, offering alternatives, yet zip.

    Dereliction of duty.

    Perhaps he doesn't have anything to reassure them with.
    Perhaps they wouldn't find him reassuring even if he did after the last three months of bullshit and talking the country down.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,772
    Speedy said:

    I'll just leave this here. Someone telling Mike to stop tweeting about betting on politics

    https://twitter.com/TomJamesScott/status/747052029974036480

    He is right you know, the betting markets are a terrible predictor.
    But not useless for making money.
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    alex. said:

    SeanT said:

    Where the F is Osborne?

    I can maybe understand Cameron keeping a low profile, for a couple of days, he must be in shock. But the Chancellor of the Exchequer should be on the TV 24/7, reassuring the markets, offering alternatives, yet zip.

    Dereliction of duty.

    To be fair I'm not sure he's really the man for publicly reassuring the markets given what he said before the referendum.
    He has a role to play, and he's not doing it.

    It think it was poor form for Lord Hill to resign too.
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    ThrakThrak Posts: 494
    chestnut said:

    Survation Poll:

    Boris v Theresa

    All voters: 50-50
    Current Tory: 50-50
    2015 Tory 47-53 (Theresa)

    Christ, another element of uncertainty.......
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,951
    SeanT said:

    tyson said:

    SeanT said:

    Jonathan said:

    This is knackering. You try to escape and this monumental clusterfuck sucks you back in.

    I'm still not getting any fucking work done.

    Aaaaaargh

    Somebody asked me pre-thread what might induce buyer's remorse, in me (Bremorse is the technical term). If this howling chaos continues that might do it, simply because I need to concentrate, and earn some bloody cash.
    You'll need that cash pal to offset your negative equity.

    Lower house prices are good for those seeking to buy a house and those seeking to buy a more expensive house.

    Higher house prices only benefit those exiting the housing market or downsizing.


    Note also a lower pound is good for UK exports, especially when we have such a need to increase exports and close the big trade gap.
    Very difficult to predict where the London property market might go.

    I expect an initial hit - 10%?

    But that only winds back the gains of the last year.

    After that there will be conflicting trends, a cheaper pound makes property more attractive to foreigners. But if the City collapses there will be rats gnawing lepers on Lombard Street.

    One thing is certain, I reckon, and that is that we will stay in the single market, or as close to it as possible. This will piss off a lot of LEAVE voters, as we will still have Freedom of Movement.

    London has had its wings clipped, quite deliberately.
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,675
    chestnut said:

    Survation Poll:

    Boris v Theresa

    All voters: 50-50
    Current Tory: 50-50
    2015 Tory 47-53 (Theresa)

    If I was May, Id be absolutely delighted with those figures.
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    Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,677

    Speedy said:

    Wont it be a hoot if Podemos win the Spanish Election, they look like a Hybrid of UKIP and Dave Spart.

    EU has far more to lose from Brexit than we do

    We forgot that there are elections in Spain today.
    We also forgot that Greece was patched up to keep tbem just going long enough so as not to give a boost to the Brexit referendum.
    Come July 2016 and Owen Jones will once again switch back to being a supporter of Brexit.

    Copy for his new book "The Establishment - and how I came to join it" will be torn up.
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,053
    Speedy said:

    alex. said:

    Scott_P said:

    @iainjwatson: 1/2 I'm told by well placed source that #Labour party has legal advice that Jeremy Corbyn would NOT automatically be on leadership ballot

    @iainjwatson: 2/2 but that Labour's NEC could over rule this and ensure he is on the ballot but might be open to messy legal challenge

    If Labout MPs don't put Corbyn forward for election they will be deselected by their local party.
    Why is everyone so certain that Corbyn has the support of the local parties? Even the selectorate who would have been heavily EU? Talk of at least a couple of motions of no confidence passed already.
    Because everyone outside the PLP hates the PLP.
    Not true Speedy. Most Labour MP's like Tory MP's, have very good relation's with their local associations. After all they were selected by them. That connection that MP's have with their local parties, and constituents is a nice part of UK politics.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited June 2016
    SeanT said:

    Where the F is Osborne?

    I can maybe understand Cameron keeping a low profile, for a couple of days, he must be in shock. But the Chancellor of the Exchequer should be on the TV 24/7, reassuring the markets, offering alternatives, yet zip.

    Dereliction of duty.

    Osborne is being hunted down by the city boys for helping deliver Brexit, his budgets were so wonderful he became the most unpopular man in the country surpassing Cameron.

    Within the last 4 months he blew up 2 budgets remember?
    His Brexit Budget was so wonderful they still want to hang him from the Shard.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,377

    Teeing up for England v France - fun in the current atmosphere.

    Surely you mean Iceland v France
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Pleased that my London prediction worked out fairly well despite Hounslow and Newham not behaving as expected. It forecast that London would vote 65.7% Remain if England was 50/50 and the result was London 59.9% and England 46.6%.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,068
    Mr. Dave, agree entirely on Hill. Whilst we're still subject to EU regulation and paying billions a year, our commissioner resigning is premature.

    Mr. Jonathan, Boris playing cricket was bloody foolish.

    May's kept her powder dry throughout, but if she's actually going to say something she needs to pipe up now, or toddle off and dwell forever in a hermitage.
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    chestnut said:

    Survation Poll:

    Boris v Theresa

    All voters: 50-50
    Current Tory: 50-50
    2015 Tory 47-53 (Theresa)

    If I was May, Id be absolutely delighted with those figures.
    ?
    So we can conclude from this that members are actually 53-47 Boris
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    Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    edited June 2016
    Isnt this all the most tremenous fun
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    Ally_BAlly_B Posts: 185
    SeanT said:

    Where the F is Osborne?

    I can maybe understand Cameron keeping a low profile, for a couple of days, he must be in shock. But the Chancellor of the Exchequer should be on the TV 24/7, reassuring the markets, offering alternatives, yet zip. Dereliction of duty.

    Isn't he working on the emergency budget that was promised is we voted Leave?
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    Justine Greening: The country can’t wait until October. Johnson and May should reach an agreement – and take over now.

    http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2016/06/justine-greening-the-country-cant-wait-until-october-johnson-and-may-should-reach-an-agreement-and-take-over-now.html

    Interesting. Boris leader and May chancellor in a joint coronation?
    No. All Remain supporting MPs must be decimated. Those that survive will be permitted to sit quietly, and obey their Leave overlords.
    Decimated i.e. 10% cut, is too small a cut.
    :naughty:
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Scott_P said:

    They stopped for tea...

    @PolhomeEditor: More Shadow Cabinet resignations coming after 4pm.


    Labour showing some welcome decorum.
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    Justine Greening: The country can’t wait until October. Johnson and May should reach an agreement – and take over now.

    http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2016/06/justine-greening-the-country-cant-wait-until-october-johnson-and-may-should-reach-an-agreement-and-take-over-now.html

    Interesting. Boris leader and May chancellor in a joint coronation?
    No. All Remain supporting MPs must be decimated. Those that survive will be permitted to sit quietly, and obey their Leave overlords.
    Decimated i.e. 10% cut, is too small a cut.
    :naughty:
    10% is the limit. Rules are rules.
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    A friend has texted me to reveal breaking news that George Osborne has agreed to join Corbyns shadow cabinet.
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    alex. said:

    SeanT said:

    Where the F is Osborne?

    I can maybe understand Cameron keeping a low profile, for a couple of days, he must be in shock. But the Chancellor of the Exchequer should be on the TV 24/7, reassuring the markets, offering alternatives, yet zip.

    Dereliction of duty.

    To be fair I'm not sure he's really the man for publicly reassuring the markets given what he said before the referendum.
    True. How many would believe a word he has to say? 2%!
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,053

    Scott_P said:

    They stopped for tea...

    @PolhomeEditor: More Shadow Cabinet resignations coming after 4pm.


    Labour showing some welcome decorum.
    Probably to watch the footie

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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    Justine Greening: The country can’t wait until October. Johnson and May should reach an agreement – and take over now.

    http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2016/06/justine-greening-the-country-cant-wait-until-october-johnson-and-may-should-reach-an-agreement-and-take-over-now.html

    Interesting. Boris leader and May chancellor in a joint coronation?
    No. All Remain supporting MPs must be decimated. Those that survive will be permitted to sit quietly, and obey their Leave overlords.
    Decimated i.e. 10% cut, is too small a cut.
    :naughty:
    10% cut off each of them, basically their heads.
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    SeanT said:


    One thing is certain, I reckon, and that is that we will stay in the single market, or as close to it as possible. This will piss off a lot of LEAVE voters, as we will still have Freedom of Movement.

    Somehow 120ish countries of the would do business with us without being in the single market, some of them are rather more prosperous than we are. If we stay with freedom of movement without at least substantial caveats there will be 30 UKIP seats in the next parliament and if they are lucky a Tory minority government.

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    ThrakThrak Posts: 494
    SeanT said:

    tyson said:

    SeanT said:

    Jonathan said:

    This is knackering. You try to escape and this monumental clusterfuck sucks you back in.

    I'm still not getting any fucking work done.

    Aaaaaargh

    Somebody asked me pre-thread what might induce buyer's remorse, in me (Bremorse is the technical term). If this howling chaos continues that might do it, simply because I need to concentrate, and earn some bloody cash.
    You'll need that cash pal to offset your negative equity.

    Lower house prices are good for those seeking to buy a house and those seeking to buy a more expensive house.

    Higher house prices only benefit those exiting the housing market or downsizing.


    Note also a lower pound is good for UK exports, especially when we have such a need to increase exports and close the big trade gap.
    Very difficult to predict where the London property market might go.

    I expect an initial hit - 10%?

    But that only winds back the gains of the last year.

    After that there will be conflicting trends, a cheaper pound makes property more attractive to foreigners. But if the City collapses there will be rats gnawing lepers on Lombard Street.

    One thing is certain, I reckon, and that is that we will stay in the single market, or as close to it as possible. This will piss off a lot of LEAVE voters, as we will still have Freedom of Movement.

    Only the top end might collapse that much, lower down there's just no supply and likely that the supply we have starts to decline, keeping prices where they are.
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    Speedy said:

    SeanT said:

    Where the F is Osborne?

    I can maybe understand Cameron keeping a low profile, for a couple of days, he must be in shock. But the Chancellor of the Exchequer should be on the TV 24/7, reassuring the markets, offering alternatives, yet zip.

    Dereliction of duty.

    Osborne is being hunted down by the city boys for helping deliver Brexit, his budgets were so wonderful he became the most unpopular man in the country surpassing Cameron.
    Within the last 4 months he blew up 2 budgets remember?
    His Brexit Budget was so wonderful they still want to hang him from the Shard.
    HMQ will pardon him for getting her country back.
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    tyson said:

    Scott_P said:

    They stopped for tea...

    @PolhomeEditor: More Shadow Cabinet resignations coming after 4pm.


    Labour showing some welcome decorum.
    Probably to watch the footie


    Corbyn a known Republic of Ireland supporter.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited June 2016
    Corbyn can simply point to that chart and say to his enemies "look who's talking".
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Torcuil: Am told Vernon Coaker to go from Shadow Cabinet, and two Eagle sisters.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125

    I would be very surprised if the new candidate were not a woman.

    Do you know something about Ed's future lack of Balls? What fun! :) It'd certainly be on trend.
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    IanB2 said:

    tyson said:

    SeanT said:

    Jonathan said:

    This is knackering. You try to escape and this monumental clusterfuck sucks you back in.

    I'm still not getting any fucking work done.

    Aaaaaargh

    Somebody asked me pre-thread what might induce buyer's remorse, in me (Bremorse is the technical term). If this howling chaos continues that might do it, simply because I need to concentrate, and earn some bloody cash.
    You'll need that cash pal to offset your negative equity.

    Lower house prices are good for those seeking to buy a house and those seeking to buy a more expensive house. The majority.

    Higher house prices only benefit those exiting the housing market or downsizing.


    Note also a lower pound is good for UK exports, especially when we have such a need to increase exports and close the big trade gap.
    Lower house prices is one of the few potential silver linings, but only if everything else doesn't collapse as well.

    A lower £ is only good news if it doesn't lead to an inflation-interest rates spiral.
    Lets face it, the temptation at the moment is for Leavers to paint a rosy picture and Remainers to just look for signs of impending doom.

    It's hard to find a balanced view anywhere. Our great advantage is having our own currency. Given our current account deficit, a devaluation would do us some good (or rather, the good would outweigh the bad).

    Other than that, I just don't know what's going to happen in practice, and I doubt anyone else does.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,065
    IanB2 said:

    tyson said:

    SeanT said:

    Jonathan said:

    This is knackering. You try to escape and this monumental clusterfuck sucks you back in.

    I'm still not getting any fucking work done.

    Aaaaaargh

    Somebody asked me pre-thread what might induce buyer's remorse, in me (Bremorse is the technical term). If this howling chaos continues that might do it, simply because I need to concentrate, and earn some bloody cash.
    You'll need that cash pal to offset your negative equity.

    Lower house prices are good for those seeking to buy a house and those seeking to buy a more expensive house. The majority.

    Higher house prices only benefit those exiting the housing market or downsizing.


    Note also a lower pound is good for UK exports, especially when we have such a need to increase exports and close the big trade gap.
    Lower house prices is one of the few potential silver linings, but only if everything else doesn't collapse as well.

    A lower £ is only good news if it doesn't lead to an inflation-interest rates spiral.

    The Tories need pensioners and home owners onside if they are going to have a chance of a majority. They will do all they can to keep house prices as high as possible. The best way to do that is to have fewer builds. That's one of the reasons why house builders saw their shares fall by so much in early trading on Friday.

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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @EdConwaySky: Leave now saying govt needs to come up with the Brexit plan, not them
    Hang on. Wasn’t the point to take control BACK from the establishment?

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    eekeek Posts: 25,447
    malcolmg said:

    Teeing up for England v France - fun in the current atmosphere.

    Surely you mean Iceland v France
    From an email yesterday (I'm sure everyone has heard it but just in case)

    It's England v Iceland on Monday. One is a small country with shite weather and a self-inflicted financial crisis

    But they should beat Iceland...
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,590
    SeanT said:

    One thing is certain, I reckon, and that is that we will stay in the single market, or as close to it as possible. This will piss off a lot of LEAVE voters, as we will still have Freedom of Movement.

    I don't see it.

    Either the principle of free movement in the single market is watered down or we're out.
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,675
    Scott_P said:

    @Torcuil: Am told Vernon Coaker to go from Shadow Cabinet, and two Eagle sisters.

    Blimey, who's left?

    I can't imagine Falconer or Bryant will stick around. What about Winterton? And there's still time for Burnham to change his mind a few times again...

    Could end up with Jeremy, Diane and Emily Thornberry. Lol.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Wont it be a hoot if Podemos win the Spanish Election, they look like a Hybrid of UKIP and Dave Spart.

    EU has far more to lose from Brexit than we do

    :lol:
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,014
    SeanT said:

    Where the F is Osborne?

    I can maybe understand Cameron keeping a low profile, for a couple of days, he must be in shock. But the Chancellor of the Exchequer should be on the TV 24/7, reassuring the markets, offering alternatives, yet zip.

    Dereliction of duty.

    Last reported ringing around MPs yesterday to back his leadership bid !

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    eekeek Posts: 25,447

    SeanT said:

    One thing is certain, I reckon, and that is that we will stay in the single market, or as close to it as possible. This will piss off a lot of LEAVE voters, as we will still have Freedom of Movement.

    I don't see it.

    Either the principle of free movement in the single market is watered down or we're out.
    Free movement is fine. The problem is Free Movement of people in the rest of the EU means freedom to find a job. In Britain it means freedom to find a part time job which the Government then tops up to make worthwhile...

    We then expected the EU to change their terms to solve our problem for us....
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    tyson said:

    SeanT said:

    Jonathan said:

    This is knackering. You try to escape and this monumental clusterfuck sucks you back in.

    I'm still not getting any fucking work done.

    Aaaaaargh

    Somebody asked me pre-thread what might induce buyer's remorse, in me (Bremorse is the technical term). If this howling chaos continues that might do it, simply because I need to concentrate, and earn some bloody cash.
    You'll need that cash pal to offset your negative equity.

    Lower house prices are good for those seeking to buy a house and those seeking to buy a more expensive house. The majority.

    Higher house prices only benefit those exiting the housing market or downsizing.


    Note also a lower pound is good for UK exports, especially when we have such a need to increase exports and close the big trade gap.
    High house prices certainly do help people downsizing - the relative differnece between ones current selling price and what one has to pay for the new, smaller, home does really change much.

    The idea that a lower pound is good for exporters is one that I have been reading about for most of my life but it seldom seems to work in practice, well not for the UK anyway. What seems to happen is that the executive class keep prices as they are and pocket the difference rather than taking the opportunity to build market share or open up new markets. The curse of short-termism amongst British executives goes back a long way, but no party (and certainly not the Conservatives) has ever had the guts to address it.
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    chestnut said:

    Survation Poll:

    Boris v Theresa

    All voters: 50-50
    Current Tory: 50-50
    2015 Tory 47-53 (Theresa)

    If I was May, Id be absolutely delighted with those figures.

    During the referendum Boris Johnson showed leadership.

    Theresa May hid in the shadows.

    If the Conservatives want leadership then the members should vote for Boris.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,411
    AndyJS said:

    Pleased that my London prediction worked out fairly well despite Hounslow and Newham not behaving as expected. It forecast that London would vote 65.7% Remain if England was 50/50 and the result was London 59.9% and England 46.6%.

    As I'm sure many people have told you, congratulations on your spreadsheet: one of the few good things to come out of this sorry affair. Are you doing a similar one for POTUS2016?

    (Incidentally do you have a link for your spreadsheet? I've lost mine)
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,377
    eek said:

    malcolmg said:

    Teeing up for England v France - fun in the current atmosphere.

    Surely you mean Iceland v France
    From an email yesterday (I'm sure everyone has heard it but just in case)

    It's England v Iceland on Monday. One is a small country with shite weather and a self-inflicted financial crisis

    But they should beat Iceland...
    Indeed but they do have a history for not meeting expectations. If they did get beat they would be better to claim political asylum than come back in current conditions.
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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    Scott_P said:

    @Torcuil: Am told Vernon Coaker to go from Shadow Cabinet, and two Eagle sisters.

    Blimey, who's left?

    I can't imagine Falconer or Bryant will stick around. What about Winterton? And there's still time for Burnham to change his mind a few times again...

    Could end up with Jeremy, Diane and Emily Thornberry. Lol.
    And McDonnell. It's interesting to speculate whether everyone who hasn't made a public statement (+Burnham) might still be on the table to go.

    Have there been many resignations amongst the second tier shadow ministerial teams? And does Corbyn not need to get a move on with his reshuffle - or is he going to conduct all Parliamentary business in person?

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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @PCollinsTimes: Headline idea for you, sub-editors. Johnson and Gove absent without Leave.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,946
    SeanT said:

    Where the F is Osborne?

    I can maybe understand Cameron keeping a low profile, for a couple of days, he must be in shock. But the Chancellor of the Exchequer should be on the TV 24/7, reassuring the markets, offering alternatives, yet zip.

    Dereliction of duty.

    What does Osborne day? "Nobody believed me. Turns out I wasn't fearsome enough"
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    IanB2 said:

    tyson said:

    SeanT said:

    Jonathan said:

    This is knackering. You try to escape and this monumental clusterfuck sucks you back in.

    I'm still not getting any fucking work done.

    Aaaaaargh

    Somebody asked me pre-thread what might induce buyer's remorse, in me (Bremorse is the technical term). If this howling chaos continues that might do it, simply because I need to concentrate, and earn some bloody cash.
    You'll need that cash pal to offset your negative equity.

    Lower house prices are good for those seeking to buy a house and those seeking to buy a more expensive house. The majority.

    Higher house prices only benefit those exiting the housing market or downsizing.


    Note also a lower pound is good for UK exports, especially when we have such a need to increase exports and close the big trade gap.
    Lower house prices is one of the few potential silver linings, but only if everything else doesn't collapse as well.

    A lower £ is only good news if it doesn't lead to an inflation-interest rates spiral.

    The Tories need pensioners and home owners onside if they are going to have a chance of a majority. They will do all they can to keep house prices as high as possible. The best way to do that is to have fewer builds. That's one of the reasons why house builders saw their shares fall by so much in early trading on Friday.

    Most pensioners are mortgage free, surely? I'm much more concerned about lower house prices for my kids. If we don't get behind lower house prices, then some of the rancour is justified - it's just boomers being selfish c*nts.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,124
    Scott_P said:

    @EdConwaySky: Leave now saying govt needs to come up with the Brexit plan, not them
    Hang on. Wasn’t the point to take control BACK from the establishment?

    Kind of missing the point that Cameron hasn't given up anything yet. Unless you are suggesting an armed coup and take over of Government I am afraid both you and Ed will have to wait until Cameron decides to surrender the reins of power.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,068
    Mr. P, Conway's being a moron, in that instance.

    Control from the EU to the UK. The UK, (although understandable to forget that these days), does have a government, the responsibility of whom it is to govern.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,124
    By the way has Cameron told the Civil Service they are now allowed to talk to the Leave side?
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    firstlight40firstlight40 Posts: 69
    edited June 2016
    So my question is - what is Grayling doing? Within the leave team but not very prominent. A current cabinet member and former lord chancellor and leader of the house (if I remember right). Not seen his name mentioned recently. A value bet as an outsider?
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,724
    edited June 2016
    .



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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,014

    SeanT said:

    One thing is certain, I reckon, and that is that we will stay in the single market, or as close to it as possible. This will piss off a lot of LEAVE voters, as we will still have Freedom of Movement.

    I don't see it.

    Either the principle of free movement in the single market is watered down or we're out.
    Free movement isnt the problem, its instant benefits when you arrive. You just dont get that in other European social security systems. That means it much easier to get going in the UK than elsewhere as a lot of the risk is taken out of it.
  • Options
    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    eek said:

    malcolmg said:

    Teeing up for England v France - fun in the current atmosphere.

    Surely you mean Iceland v France
    From an email yesterday (I'm sure everyone has heard it but just in case)

    It's England v Iceland on Monday. One is a small country with shite weather and a self-inflicted financial crisis

    But they should beat Iceland...
    Crisis - what crisis?
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Scott_P said:

    @Torcuil: Am told Vernon Coaker to go from Shadow Cabinet, and two Eagle sisters.

    Entirely expected.
    How come Falconer hasn't gone yet.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,377
    John_M said:

    IanB2 said:

    tyson said:

    SeanT said:

    Jonathan said:

    This is knackering. You try to escape and this monumental clusterfuck sucks you back in.

    I'm still not getting any fucking work done.

    Aaaaaargh

    Somebody asked me pre-thread what might induce buyer's remorse, in me (Bremorse is the technical term). If this howling chaos continues that might do it, simply because I need to concentrate, and earn some bloody cash.
    You'll need that cash pal to offset your negative equity.

    Lower house prices are good for those seeking to buy a house and those seeking to buy a more expensive house. The majority.

    Higher house prices only benefit those exiting the housing market or downsizing.


    Note also a lower pound is good for UK exports, especially when we have such a need to increase exports and close the big trade gap.
    Lower house prices is one of the few potential silver linings, but only if everything else doesn't collapse as well.

    A lower £ is only good news if it doesn't lead to an inflation-interest rates spiral.

    The Tories need pensioners and home owners onside if they are going to have a chance of a majority. They will do all they can to keep house prices as high as possible. The best way to do that is to have fewer builds. That's one of the reasons why house builders saw their shares fall by so much in early trading on Friday.

    Most pensioners are mortgage free, surely? I'm much more concerned about lower house prices for my kids. If we don't get behind lower house prices, then some of the rancour is justified - it's just boomers being selfish c*nts.
    The majority of boomers are not rich , the London ones may have made plenty on houses etc, nothing similar elsewhere.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    SeanT said:

    Where the F is Osborne?

    I can maybe understand Cameron keeping a low profile, for a couple of days, he must be in shock. But the Chancellor of the Exchequer should be on the TV 24/7, reassuring the markets, offering alternatives, yet zip.

    Dereliction of duty.

    Even if he's up to his eyeballs in his day job - it's PR 101 to at least make a reassuring statement and say when you'll be back with updates.

    Both Dave and George aren't even bothering with the basics anymore in terms of the public.

    Hammond was disgraceful earlier - still trying to scare Gib residents.
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    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited June 2016
    Just in case anyone missed the news on that spoof petition.
    http://heatst.com/uk/exclusive-brexit-2nd-referendum-petition-a-4-chan-prank-bbc-report-it-as-real/
    "By Sunday afternoon in the UK, the national broadcaster deigned to report that Parliament was investigating the petition for fraud."
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    chrisoxonchrisoxon Posts: 204

    By the way has Cameron told the Civil Service they are now allowed to talk to the Leave side?

    There are no grounds for this. Vote Leave are not a potential administration like opposition parties are in a General Election. Vote Leave Ltd will have been wound up by the close of the year.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    edited June 2016
    In (15)

    Corbyn
    Watson
    McDonnell
    Burnham
    Winterton*
    Smith O
    Thornberry
    Trickett
    Nandy
    Abbott
    Griffith
    Green
    Berger*
    Baronness Smith
    Lord Bassam

    *Rumoured to be considering their positions

    Wobbling (5)

    Eagle A
    Lord Falconer
    Bryant
    Coaker
    Eagle M

    Gone (8)

    Malhotra
    Benn
    Alexander
    Powell
    Greenwood
    McCarthy
    Murray
    De Piero

    Those in the middle would make quite a difference.
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    eek said:

    SeanT said:

    One thing is certain, I reckon, and that is that we will stay in the single market, or as close to it as possible. This will piss off a lot of LEAVE voters, as we will still have Freedom of Movement.

    I don't see it.

    Either the principle of free movement in the single market is watered down or we're out.
    Free movement is fine. The problem is Free Movement of people in the rest of the EU means freedom to find a job. In Britain it means freedom to find a part time job which the Government then tops up to make worthwhile...

    We then expected the EU to change their terms to solve our problem for us....
    I suspect what a lot of people don't like about Freedom of Movement isn't really freedom of movement at all, its Article 8, and our inability therefrom to throw out phony asylum seekers and criminals of various hues. The incredulous public looking on as the government took years and millions of pounds to get Abu Hamza out the country did incalculable damage to the public opinion of free movement. Unfortunately we need to be out of the EU now to be able to ignore the EHCR.
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    malcolmg said:

    eek said:

    malcolmg said:

    Teeing up for England v France - fun in the current atmosphere.

    Surely you mean Iceland v France
    From an email yesterday (I'm sure everyone has heard it but just in case)

    It's England v Iceland on Monday. One is a small country with shite weather and a self-inflicted financial crisis

    But they should beat Iceland...
    Indeed but they do have a history for not meeting expectations. If they did get beat they would be better to claim political asylum than come back in current conditions.
    I sense your dread.
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,675
    alex. said:

    Scott_P said:

    @Torcuil: Am told Vernon Coaker to go from Shadow Cabinet, and two Eagle sisters.

    Blimey, who's left?

    I can't imagine Falconer or Bryant will stick around. What about Winterton? And there's still time for Burnham to change his mind a few times again...

    Could end up with Jeremy, Diane and Emily Thornberry. Lol.
    And McDonnell. It's interesting to speculate whether everyone who hasn't made a public statement (+Burnham) might still be on the table to go.

    Have there been many resignations amongst the second tier shadow ministerial teams? And does Corbyn not need to get a move on with his reshuffle - or is he going to conduct all Parliamentary business in person?

    I suspect he can't do a reshuffle because at this moment in time it's not clear who is willing to serve...
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited June 2016
    PlatoSaid said:

    Even if he's up to his eyeballs in his day job - it's PR 101 to at least make a reassuring statement

    He did that on Friday
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,124
    chrisoxon said:

    By the way has Cameron told the Civil Service they are now allowed to talk to the Leave side?

    There are no grounds for this. Vote Leave are not a potential administration like opposition parties are in a General Election. Vote Leave Ltd will have been wound up by the close of the year.
    Some of Vote Leave side are still ministers and if you remember Cameron forbade the Civil Service to give them any assistance at all as far as far as Brexit was concerned.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Just in case anyone missed the news on that spoof petition.
    http://heatst.com/uk/exclusive-brexit-2nd-referendum-petition-a-4-chan-prank-bbc-report-it-as-real/
    "By Sunday afternoon in the UK, the national broadcaster deigned to report that Parliament was investigating the petition for fraud."

    Well with 4000+ signatures from the Vatican what can you expect.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,068
    Miss Plato, what did Hammond say about Gibraltar?
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    PlatoSaid said:

    SeanT said:

    Where the F is Osborne?

    I can maybe understand Cameron keeping a low profile, for a couple of days, he must be in shock. But the Chancellor of the Exchequer should be on the TV 24/7, reassuring the markets, offering alternatives, yet zip.

    Dereliction of duty.

    Even if he's up to his eyeballs in his day job - it's PR 101 to at least make a reassuring statement and say when you'll be back with updates.

    Both Dave and George aren't even bothering with the basics anymore in terms of the public.

    Hammond was disgraceful earlier - still trying to scare Gib residents.

    Why would Hammond want to scare Gib residents? where is the political mileage in so doing?
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    Speedy said:

    Scott_P said:

    @Torcuil: Am told Vernon Coaker to go from Shadow Cabinet, and two Eagle sisters.

    Entirely expected.
    How come Falconer hasn't gone yet.
    Hanging on to resign if Corbyn says something nasty about Blair when the Chilcot report comes out?
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    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,358

    So my question is - what is Grayling doing? Within the leave team but not very prominent. A current cabinet member and former lord chancellor and leader of the house (if I remember right). Not seen his name mentioned recently. A value bet as an outsider?

    Grayling's reputation took a battering when Gove took over MoJ and undid everything Grayling had previously implemented, to absolutely no one's displeasure.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,136
    Just got back from the pub. Corbyn still hanging on? :D
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125

    alex. said:

    SeanT said:

    Where the F is Osborne?

    I can maybe understand Cameron keeping a low profile, for a couple of days, he must be in shock. But the Chancellor of the Exchequer should be on the TV 24/7, reassuring the markets, offering alternatives, yet zip.

    Dereliction of duty.

    To be fair I'm not sure he's really the man for publicly reassuring the markets given what he said before the referendum.
    True. How many would believe a word he has to say? 2%!
    Normally I dislike watching those wildlife films which show the vultures on the carcass - but at least they have the decency to wait until it is a carcass. You won, have been congratulated, yet keep on fighting - it's almost as if you've got no next stage to move on to....oh wait.
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    Speedy said:

    Just in case anyone missed the news on that spoof petition.
    http://heatst.com/uk/exclusive-brexit-2nd-referendum-petition-a-4-chan-prank-bbc-report-it-as-real/
    "By Sunday afternoon in the UK, the national broadcaster deigned to report that Parliament was investigating the petition for fraud."

    Well with 4000+ signatures from the Vatican what can you expect.
    Not to mention 28,000 from North Korea and six from Boston, lincs.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @DSORennie: Here we go. @FraserNelson latest Brexiteer to blame post-vote instability on Remain sabotage. This will be the line https://t.co/IoboewJqdb
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    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,941
    SeanT said:

    Where the F is Osborne?

    I can maybe understand Cameron keeping a low profile, for a couple of days, he must be in shock. But the Chancellor of the Exchequer should be on the TV 24/7, reassuring the markets, offering alternatives, yet zip.

    Dereliction of duty.

    Sean, I think you are being a bit unrealistic to expect any of the remainers who have suffered the dog's abuse from Brexiters over recent weeks to lift a finger to help them out.

    What the country actually needs is Johnson, Gove, Farage etc to be out there trying to reassure people that they have made the right choice - for better or worse that is the future. Unfortunately they haven't a Scooby Doo about what to do next. Don't expect Osborn to save their bacon, it's Brexit's show now
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    chrisoxonchrisoxon Posts: 204

    SeanT said:

    One thing is certain, I reckon, and that is that we will stay in the single market, or as close to it as possible. This will piss off a lot of LEAVE voters, as we will still have Freedom of Movement.

    I don't see it.

    Either the principle of free movement in the single market is watered down or we're out.
    Free movement isnt the problem, its instant benefits when you arrive. You just dont get that in other European social security systems. That means it much easier to get going in the UK than elsewhere as a lot of the risk is taken out of it.
    You are making the same mistake as the PM, and deciding that the only reason people are concerned about immigration is because of our benefit system. Not a single person I spoke to during the referendum mentioned benefits once in the context of immigration, they were concerned about ongoing pressure on public services, or the fact that we cannot have controls to determine the qualifications of those moving here. Oh, and most of them didn't mention immigration as their number one concern!

    It's also worth remembering that the proposed benefit curbs would have done nothing, our minimum wage is the pull factor, not our benefit system.
This discussion has been closed.