With all attention on the EU is it not likely that the only people who Cameron will find it easy to satisfy at the moment are people who are both Con and Remain. So he is bound to be a big net negative.
Ditto with Corbyn - Lab Leave supporters won't be happy with him.
Whereas Farage is satisfying almost all Leave supporters (whether or not they would vote UKIP) because the only political issue anyone is thinking about right now is the EU Ref.
On tw8tter - German CBI pleads for no tariffs with UK post brexit.
For all the overblown rhetoric around at the moment, if we actually vote to leave it will be quickly replaced by pragmatism on the part of those around the table negotiating.
Merkel's up for election next year, so is Hollande. They won't want to make themselves unpopular at home by stifling their own trade with the UK, most of which is exports to the UK.
A sterling devaluation of 10-30% will do a fair bit of the stifling - another Brexiquence hardly likely to endear us to our continental friends just after we tell them to FO
A Sterling devaluation of that level would hurt Germany more than it would hurt us since we both compete in the same finished manufactured goods export markets. Given how bad our current account deficit is, a devaluation of that kind would probably be quite welcome.
Indeed - it would make it harder for Germany to sell to the UK and make them and other EU leaders much less willing to offer free trade to cut price UK exports. Sadly Britain has had numerous devaluations over many years and yet we still struggle to sell. Why should this be any different?
Rubbish. The last Sterling devaluation oversaw the largest growth in manufacturing since the 80s. As always the facts contradict your stupid claims.
A strong economy doesn't need to devalue its currency to do well. One tries to ignore the personal rudeness but as ever you push one to the limit.
No new trade barriers post brexit then. None, zip, nada, zilch.
Oh we're listening to experts now ?
Mr. Eagles, I saw some figures this morning, I don't know how accurate they are, but they made interesting reading.
Suppose if we voted to Leave and the EU decided to punish us by treating us the same way as Korea, Australia, the USA etc.. We would face tariffs on our exports of 3 to 4%.
The alternative is that we continue to pay so as we are not subject to such tariffs. The amount we pay (nett) is some £8.5bn.
Given the amount we export to the EU that £8.5bn is equivalent to a tariff of 7%.
In other words even if we were subject to EU import tariffs we would still be better off out. Plus of course the financial situation would be improved by us imposing our own tariffs on imports from the EU.
You are a lawyer, assume for the sake of argument that the figures I have given you are correct and argue how this is a good deal financially for the UK.
I'm not Tony Blair, I'm not going to base an argument on some unsourced data.
I need hard numbers.
I have just given you the numbers for the argument.
Given that they put in their application on the 14th April 1987, and talks have been going on ever since, I think it's a bit of a stretch to say talks will be 'opened' next week.
Do Leavers actually believe this Turkey nonsense? I mean, really?
The Times - The pound and the FTSE 100 are unsurprisingly marking time today ahead of tomorrow's EU referendum . Matthew Shaddick, head of political betting at Ladbrokes says: "This is the biggest non-sporting event the bookmaking industry has ever seen with £100 million expected to be wagered by the time the polling booths close on Thursday night."
It's an ill wind, etc - at least Shadsy's Christmas bonus looks secure for another year.
Given that they put in their application on the 14th April 1987, and talks have been going on ever since, I think it's a bit of a stretch to say talks will be 'opened' next week.
Do Leavers actually believe this Turkey nonsense? I mean, really?
I wonder if the final polls are going to pick up any last minute switchback to Remain?
Incidentally have PBers noticed any significant campaigning by less high profile Tory MPs who've declared for Remain? Helen Grant has been conspicuous by her almost total absence here.
Who's Helen Grant?
Interesting - from a party member as well. I wonder why.
London Highways companies have just put in place emergency flood clearance measures for London area overnight into tomorrow due to weather warning from Met Office.
Please can tomorrow be absolutely pissing down all day in London. Pretty please!
No, the storms will track along the south coast from the Isle of Wight, head across north Kent to the Essex coast just skimming the eastern Boroughs of London, then head north towards Lincolnshire...
Mmm. I guess the weather is the one variable left now, barring the blackest of black swan events - and we don't need any more of those.
They have too much money already in the game, Scott.
They still need 27 votes. Are you suggesting they buy them?
Are you seriously suggesting that Germany has no non-financial influence in the corridors of the EU?
And in whose interest is it to be beastly to the UK post-Brexit pour encourager les autres? Not the leaders of the 27 states whose votes you reference, but the unelected bureaucrats, the useless EU MPs and the gravy trainers who don't actually get to vote on these particular issues.
No new trade barriers post brexit then. None, zip, nada, zilch.
Oh we're listening to experts now ?
It does tend to support what Leavers have been saying all along about the Germans wanting a deal.
Reuters also report that the majority of large German companies have concerns.
It seems to me that all the conversations we have read where people have been concerned about being locked out of the European Single Market have most likely been mirrored in Europe with big EU exporters and service providers worrying about being locked out of the UK Single Market.
Lol - almost at the level of 'fog in the channel Europe cut off'. One helluva reality check on the way for little Britain methinks.
The head of the German CBI merely echoing the head of the German automotive industry.
You like German 'experts' I see. How easily will they sell to the UK if there is a big sterling devaluation?
Given that they put in their application on the 14th April 1987, and talks have been going on ever since, I think it's a bit of a stretch to say talks will be 'opened' next week.
Do Leavers actually believe this Turkey nonsense? I mean, really?
No new trade barriers post brexit then. None, zip, nada, zilch.
Oh we're listening to experts now ?
Mr. Eagles, I saw some figures this morning, I don't know how accurate they are, but they made interesting reading.
Suppose if we voted to Leave and the EU decided to punish us by treating us the same way as Korea, Australia, the USA etc.. We would face tariffs on our exports of 3 to 4%.
The alternative is that we continue to pay so as we are not subject to such tariffs. The amount we pay (nett) is some £8.5bn.
Given the amount we export to the EU that £8.5bn is equivalent to a tariff of 7%.
In other words even if we were subject to EU import tariffs we would still be better off out. Plus of course the financial situation would be improved by us imposing our own tariffs on imports from the EU.
You are a lawyer, assume for the sake of argument that the figures I have given you are correct and argue how this is a good deal financially for the UK.
I'm not Tony Blair, I'm not going to base an argument on some unsourced data.
I need hard numbers.
I have just given you the numbers for the argument.
Tariffs are market distorting, our payment to the EU is not. Consider also the effect of quantitative restrictions beyond the tariff itself.
I wonder if the final polls are going to pick up any last minute switchback to Remain?
Incidentally have PBers noticed any significant campaigning by less high profile Tory MPs who've declared for Remain? Helen Grant has been conspicuous by her almost total absence here.
Who's Helen Grant?
MP for Maidstone and the Weald. While I am a LD Remainer my son campaigns for Leave and has wryly observed that had Maidstone been captured by the LDs at the last election (it was a target seat strange as that may seem in hindsight) the LD MP would be campaigning far more actively that Ms Grant has done. There may be parallels in other seats.
Just went round the main high street in a market town in Wiltshire. Deep blue county, obviously, but the town is LD controlled. A voteLeave stall out, not Remain stall. Yeah, I know, anecdotal and pointless, but honestly, it's the last day of campaigning for crying out loud. I've had a mail out from Leave since the start of the campaign, but I don't think anything from remain since the government booklet, and a BSE sheet at least a month before campaigning officially opened.
If it's not representative of opinion round here, it's still lazy.
Are you seriously suggesting that Germany has no non-financial influence in the corridors of the EU?
I am suggesting that the elected heads of 26 other sovereign nations will not vote against their National interests just because "the German CBI wants it"
I thought Brexiteers were always complaining about sclerotic EU decision making?
Apparently all it takes is one word from a German...
"No, the storms will track along the south coast from the Isle of Wight, head across north Kent to the Essex coast just skimming the eastern Boroughs of London, then head north towards Lincolnshire... "
Stopping just over Boston, and this combined with the high tide will cause flooding in the polling stations. Turnout 1%.
On tw8tter - German CBI pleads for no tariffs with UK post brexit.
For all the overblown rhetoric around at the moment, if we actually vote to leave it will be quickly replaced by pragmatism on the part of those around the table negotiating.
Merkel's up for election next year, so is Hollande. They won't want to make themselves unpopular at home by stifling their own trade with the UK, most of which is exports to the UK.
A sterling devaluation of 10-30% will do a fair bit of the stifling - another Brexiquence hardly likely to endear us to our continental friends just after we tell them to FO
A Sterling devaluation of that level would hurt Germany more than it would hurt us since we both compete in the same finished manufactured goods export markets. Given how bad our current account deficit is, a devaluation of that kind would probably be quite welcome.
Indeed - it would make it harder for Germany to sell to the UK and make them and other EU leaders much less willing to offer free trade to cut price UK exports. Sadly Britain has had numerous devaluations over many years and yet we still struggle to sell. Why should this be any different?
Rubbish. The last Sterling devaluation oversaw the largest growth in manufacturing since the 80s. As always the facts contradict your stupid claims.
A strong economy doesn't need to devalue its currency to do well. One tries to ignore the personal rudeness but as ever you push one to the limit.
Key words, a strong economy. This economy is built on sand. We have a 7% current account deficit and a 4.5% fiscal deficit. Brexit ir no Brexit, Osborne has built a weak economy based on borrowing from future generations to pay for today's mistakes.
Given that they put in their application on the 14th April 1987, and talks have been going on ever since, I think it's a bit of a stretch to say talks will be 'opened' next week.
Do Leavers actually believe this Turkey nonsense? I mean, really?
See IDS interview
Not that old one again? Wasn't the EU army or some such due to be activated on June 24?
– The former England international football star said he is backing Brexit so that young British sporting talent would be nurtured and given greater opportunities at British clubs. He said: "I'm looking at the sporting side - how youngsters aren't getting the opportunities at some of the big clubs and some of the big clubs are bringing in youngsters from 14, 15, 16 and becoming homegrown, which is pushing some of our youngsters out."
For information: there is an interesting data plot concerning voter registration and age on the Telegraph's live blog.
Put simply, the more pensioners there are in an area, the higher registration goes.
Some counting areas barely have 60% registration. These are places with low numbers of pensioners. Those over 80% registration have large numbers of pensioner registrations.
That graph implies only approx 75% of eligible people are registered to vote.
This looks completely wrong.
Registered voters = 46.4m. If only 75% are registered that implies 62m adults in UK.
Which in turn would imply a UK population of approx 75m.
"No, the storms will track along the south coast from the Isle of Wight, head across north Kent to the Essex coast just skimming the eastern Boroughs of London, then head north towards Lincolnshire... "
Stopping just over Boston, and this combined with the high tide will cause flooding in the polling stations. Turnout 1%.
First sign of the acts of God that will arise as a result of Brexit?
No new trade barriers post brexit then. None, zip, nada, zilch.
Oh we're listening to experts now ?
Mr. Eagles, I saw some figures this morning, I don't know how accurate they are, but they made interesting reading.
Suppose if we voted to Leave and the EU decided to punish us by treating us the same way as Korea, Australia, the USA etc.. We would face tariffs on our exports of 3 to 4%.
The alternative is that we continue to pay so as we are not subject to such tariffs. The amount we pay (nett) is some £8.5bn.
Given the amount we export to the EU that £8.5bn is equivalent to a tariff of 7%.
In other words even if we were subject to EU import tariffs we would still be better off out. Plus of course the financial situation would be improved by us imposing our own tariffs on imports from the EU.
You are a lawyer, assume for the sake of argument that the figures I have given you are correct and argue how this is a good deal financially for the UK.
It's not quite as straightforward as this. If there is a 4% tariff on items from the UK, but not from Germany, businesses will invest in Germany rather than the UK, so all the business and jobs that would otherwise happen in the UK are lost - including to non-EU countries. The tax on that business and those jobs will also be lost. If we have to pay a lump sum, the investment decision on the tariff point at least will be neutral.
Just went round the main high street in a market town in Wiltshire. Deep blue county, obviously, but the town is LD controlled. A voteLeave stall out, not Remain stall. Yeah, I know, anecdotal and pointless, but honestly, it's the last day of campaigning for crying out loud. I've had a mail out from Leave since the start of the campaign, but I don't think anything from remain since the government booklet, and a BSE sheet at least a month before campaigning officially opened.
If it's not representative of opinion round here, it's still lazy.
Remain were out twice at central London tube stations on Monday and Tuesday, Leave were nowhere to be seen, both sides are now focusing on getting out their vote
London Highways companies have just put in place emergency flood clearance measures for London area overnight into tomorrow due to weather warning from Met Office.
Please can tomorrow be absolutely pissing down all day in London. Pretty please!
No, the storms will track along the south coast from the Isle of Wight, head across north Kent to the Essex coast just skimming the eastern Boroughs of London, then head north towards Lincolnshire...
Thunderstorms in Kent, Essex, East London, Lincolnshire - aren't they areas of relative UKIP strength? God's trying to tell you guys something!
Having said I'd sit the referendum out, I've actually been delivering leaflets across my ward for the past few days. Nothing from the official campaign - but a leaflet from our MEP talking about their work, and what they are achieving through the EU. It hardly mentions the referendum but people have said it was refreshing and informative compared to the shouting of the campaigns. We'll have to see.
One thing I have noticed, lots of LEAVE posters on major road junctions, at the side of A roads etc, but several small remain posters on the houses in my ward, in some areas where I wouldn't expect. Leave clearly more visible, but road junctions don't vote as often as people in my experience. No idea if it's anything more than a straw in the wind.
Almost at the stage where whichever side wins, I want them to win well - so there's no suggestion that we'll have a rerun any time soon.
I drove through a main road in a Lib dem area last night. Usually at election time it has 6+ LD houses with posters, 1 Con and 1 UKIP. This time just 3 for LEAVE.
I took a long stroll round parts of my town yesterday evening.
What is interesting is there was comparatively little in the way of posters from either side compared to a GE. This is not an area where people are shy about expressing their vote.
However what little there was was enormously stereotyped. The few Remain posters are only to be spotted on the most wealthy streets, most definitely As and Bs. Most amusingly the Labour office plastered on Remain posters is in one of those very wealthy areas. Everywhere else you only get Leave posters.
No new trade barriers post brexit then. None, zip, nada, zilch.
Oh we're listening to experts now ?
Mr. Eagles, I saw some figures this morning, I don't know how accurate they are, but they made interesting reading.
Suppose if we voted to Leave and the EU decided to punish us by treating us the same way as Korea, Australia, the USA etc.. We would face tariffs on our exports of 3 to 4%.
The alternative is that we continue to pay so as we are not subject to such tariffs. The amount we pay (nett) is some £8.5bn.
Given the amount we export to the EU that £8.5bn is equivalent to a tariff of 7%.
In other words even if we were subject to EU import tariffs we would still be better off out. Plus of course the financial situation would be improved by us imposing our own tariffs on imports from the EU.
You are a lawyer, assume for the sake of argument that the figures I have given you are correct and argue how this is a good deal financially for the UK.
I'm not Tony Blair, I'm not going to base an argument on some unsourced data.
I need hard numbers.
I have just given you the numbers for the argument.
Tariffs are market distorting, our payment to the EU is not. Consider also the effect of quantitative restrictions beyond the tariff itself.
As a result of our payment to the EU, food costs a h*ll of a lot more to buy in this country - and you say that is not market distorting FFS!
No new trade barriers post brexit then. None, zip, nada, zilch.
Oh we're listening to experts now ?
Mr. Eagles, I saw some figures this morning, I don't know how accurate they are, but they made interesting reading.
Suppose if we voted to Leave and the EU decided to punish us by treating us the same way as Korea, Australia, the USA etc.. We would face tariffs on our exports of 3 to 4%.
The alternative is that we continue to pay so as we are not subject to such tariffs. The amount we pay (nett) is some £8.5bn.
Given the amount we export to the EU that £8.5bn is equivalent to a tariff of 7%.
In other words even if we were subject to EU import tariffs we would still be better off out. Plus of course the financial situation would be improved by us imposing our own tariffs on imports from the EU.
You are a lawyer, assume for the sake of argument that the figures I have given you are correct and argue how this is a good deal financially for the UK.
I'm not Tony Blair, I'm not going to base an argument on some unsourced data.
I need hard numbers.
There arent any. They change all the time and you have to use your best judgement.
Rather cloudy across England with thundery downpours in the south-east. Some sunshine for western parts of England and Wales. Northern Ireland and Scotland will have sunshine and some heavy showers.
– The former England international football star said he is backing Brexit so that young British sporting talent would be nurtured and given greater opportunities at British clubs. He said: "I'm looking at the sporting side - how youngsters aren't getting the opportunities at some of the big clubs and some of the big clubs are bringing in youngsters from 14, 15, 16 and becoming homegrown, which is pushing some of our youngsters out."
You aren't really posting Sol Campbell's opinion ... to me?
Rather cloudy across England with thundery downpours in the south-east. Some sunshine for western parts of England and Wales. Northern Ireland and Scotland will have sunshine and some heavy showers.
Sounds good to me!
EDIT: Apart from I might get wet cycling to the station
I wonder if the final polls are going to pick up any last minute switchback to Remain?
Incidentally have PBers noticed any significant campaigning by less high profile Tory MPs who've declared for Remain? Helen Grant has been conspicuous by her almost total absence here.
Whos Helen Grant?
MP for Maidstone and the Weald. While I am a LD Remainer my son campaigns for Leave and has wryly observed that had Maidstone been captured by the LDs at the last election (it was a target seat strange as that may seem in hindsight) the LD MP would be campaigning far more actively that Ms Grant has done. There may be parallels in other seats.
That's interesting - lots of MPs are invisible in their own seats, for career survival reasons.
IIRC someone pretty noisy in Gavin Barwell's local party has just resigned and written an open letter that's been all over Twitter. She's not impressed at his behaviour, and made a veiled threat about how he'd be writing another book shortly - this time on how to lose a marginal seat.
Remain were out twice at central London tube stations on Monday and Tuesday, Leave were nowhere to be seen, both sides are now focusing on getting out their vote
On Monday evening there was a lone and rather forlorn Remain campaigner holding a Remain placard outside Embankment tube station, totally ignored by the crowds passing. Although I admired his dedication, I couldn't help thinking that he looked just like one of those chaps one used to see holding a 'The End of the World is Nigh' placard on Oxford Street.
Having said I'd sit the referendum out, I've actually been delivering leaflets across my ward for the past few days. Nothing from the official campaign - but a leaflet from our MEP talking about their work, and what they are achieving through the EU. It hardly mentions the referendum but people have said it was refreshing and informative compared to the shouting of the campaigns. We'll have to see.
One thing I have noticed, lots of LEAVE posters on major road junctions, at the side of A roads etc, but several small remain posters on the houses in my ward, in some areas where I wouldn't expect. Leave clearly more visible, but road junctions don't vote as often as people in my experience. No idea if it's anything more than a straw in the wind.
Almost at the stage where whichever side wins, I want them to win well - so there's no suggestion that we'll have a rerun any time soon.
I drove through a main road in a Lib dem area last night. Usually at election time it has 6+ LD houses with posters, 1 Con and 1 UKIP. This time just 3 for LEAVE.
I took a long stroll round parts of my town yesterday evening.
What is interesting is there was comparatively little in the way of posters from either side compared to a GE. This is not an area where people are shy about expressing their vote.
However what little there was was enormously stereotyped. The few Remain posters are only to be spotted on the most wealthy streets, most definitely As and Bs. Most amusingly the Labour office plastered on Remain posters is in one of those very wealthy areas. Everywhere else you only get Leave posters.
I have seen Labour In and LD In posters on some modest cottage windows, as well as a Leave poster on the same road and a huge Leave poster and UKIP Leave poster on a fence by a house by the main road
London Highways companies have just put in place emergency flood clearance measures for London area overnight into tomorrow due to weather warning from Met Office.
Please can tomorrow be absolutely pissing down all day in London. Pretty please!
No, the storms will track along the south coast from the Isle of Wight, head across north Kent to the Essex coast just skimming the eastern Boroughs of London, then head north towards Lincolnshire...
Thunderstorms in Kent, Essex, East London, Lincolnshire - aren't they areas of relative UKIP strength? God's trying to tell you guys something!
Yeah saw that weather report the other day and was like lol.
No new trade barriers post brexit then. None, zip, nada, zilch.
Oh we're listening to experts now ?
Mr. Eagles, I saw some figures this morning, I don't know how accurate they are, but they made interesting reading.
Suppose if we voted to Leave and the EU decided to punish us by treating us the same way as Korea, Australia, the USA etc.. We would face tariffs on our exports of 3 to 4%.
The alternative is that we continue to pay so as we are not subject to such tariffs. The amount we pay (nett) is some £8.5bn.
Given the amount we export to the EU that £8.5bn is equivalent to a tariff of 7%.
In other words even if we were subject to EU import tariffs we would still be better off out. Plus of course the financial situation would be improved by us imposing our own tariffs on imports from the EU.
You are a lawyer, assume for the sake of argument that the figures I have given you are correct and argue how this is a good deal financially for the UK.
It's not quite as straightforward as this. If there is a 4% tariff on items from the UK, but not from Germany, businesses will invest in Germany rather than the UK, so all the business and jobs that would otherwise happen in the UK are lost - including to non-EU countries. The tax on that business and those jobs will also be lost. If we have to pay a lump sum, the investment decision on the tariff point at least will be neutral.
OK but that lump sum is coming from the UK taxpayers. Suppose the HMG set up an office to reimburse the tariff charges for exporters. There would be a cost to such a move but it would be nowhere near the 3% difference. The effect you mention would be wiped out and we would as a nation still end up quids in.
Having said I'd sit the referendum out, I've actually been delivering leaflets across my ward for the past few days. Nothing from the official campaign - but a leaflet from our MEP talking about their work, and what they are achieving through the EU. It hardly mentions the referendum but people have said it was refreshing and informative compared to the shouting of the campaigns. We'll have to see.
One thing I have noticed, lots of LEAVE posters on major road junctions, at the side of A roads etc, but several small remain posters on the houses in my ward, in some areas where I wouldn't expect. Leave clearly more visible, but road junctions don't vote as often as people in my experience. No idea if it's anything more than a straw in the wind.
Almost at the stage where whichever side wins, I want them to win well - so there's no suggestion that we'll have a rerun any time soon.
I drove through a main road in a Lib dem area last night. Usually at election time it has 6+ LD houses with posters, 1 Con and 1 UKIP. This time just 3 for LEAVE.
I took a long stroll round parts of my town yesterday evening.
What is interesting is there was comparatively little in the way of posters from either side compared to a GE. This is not an area where people are shy about expressing their vote.
However what little there was was enormously stereotyped. The few Remain posters are only to be spotted on the most wealthy streets, most definitely As and Bs. Most amusingly the Labour office plastered on Remain posters is in one of those very wealthy areas. Everywhere else you only get Leave posters.
I have seen Labour In and LD In posters on some modest cottage windows, as well as a Leave poster on the same road and a huge Leave poster and UKIP Leave poster on a fence by a house by the main road
Remain were out twice at central London tube stations on Monday and Tuesday, Leave were nowhere to be seen, both sides are now focusing on getting out their vote
On Monday evening there was a lone and rather forlorn Remain campaigner holding a Remain placard outside Embankment tube station, totally ignored by the crowds passing. Although I admired his dedication, I couldn't help thinking that he looked just like one of those chaps one used to see holding a 'The End of the World is Nigh' placard on Oxford Street.
Maybe but it is still better to make some effort than none at all, however odd you may look
Remain were out twice at central London tube stations on Monday and Tuesday, Leave were nowhere to be seen, both sides are now focusing on getting out their vote
On Monday evening there was a lone and rather forlorn Remain campaigner holding a Remain placard outside Embankment tube station, totally ignored by the crowds passing. Although I admired his dedication, I couldn't help thinking that he looked just like one of those chaps one used to see holding a 'The End of the World is Nigh' placard on Oxford Street.
Embankment tube ?
Surely that should be a monolithic "remain" vote ?
On tw8tter - German CBI pleads for no tariffs with UK post brexit.
For all the overblown rhetoric around at the moment, if we actually vote to leave it will be quickly replaced by pragmatism on the part of those around the table negotiating.
Merkel's up for election next year, so is Hollande. They won't want to make themselves unpopular at home by stifling their own trade with the UK, most of which is exports to the UK.
A sterling devaluation of 10-30% will do a fair bit of the stifling - another Brexiquence hardly likely to endear us to our continental friends just after we tell them to FO
A Sterling devaluation of that level would hurt Germany more than it would hurt us since we both compete in the same finished manufactured goods export markets. Given how bad our current account deficit is, a devaluation of that kind would probably be quite welcome.
Indeed - it would make it harder for Germany to sell to the UK and make them and other EU leaders much less willing to offer free trade to cut price UK exports. Sadly Britain has had numerous devaluations over many years and yet we still struggle to sell. Why should this be any different?
Rubbish. The last Sterling devaluation oversaw the largest growth in manufacturing since the 80s. As always the facts contradict your stupid claims.
A strong economy doesn't need to devalue its currency to do well. One tries to ignore the personal rudeness but as ever you push one to the limit.
Key words, a strong economy. This economy is built on sand. We have a 7% current account deficit and a 4.5% fiscal deficit. Brexit ir no Brexit, Osborne has built a weak economy based on borrowing from future generations to pay for today's mistakes.
Lol - I agree but I've not heard many Brexiteers acknowledge it - and we could need to borrow a lot more over the next few months, amybe even years.
Remain were out twice at central London tube stations on Monday and Tuesday, Leave were nowhere to be seen, both sides are now focusing on getting out their vote
I had to smile at Waterloo last night.
Remain: about 15 rather aggressive and serious young people in T shirts handing out leaflets.
Leave: One young lady in a gimp mask waving a union jack with the slogan 'do you feel constricted and tied down by the EU'
Just out of interest, how accurate did the anecdata posted on this forum prove to be for GE 2015?
You should spend an hour reading the threads from that hallowed day..... some now departed posters letting rip on the red teams ground game, the polls, in fact I might do so tomorrow.
– The former England international football star said he is backing Brexit so that young British sporting talent would be nurtured and given greater opportunities at British clubs. He said: "I'm looking at the sporting side - how youngsters aren't getting the opportunities at some of the big clubs and some of the big clubs are bringing in youngsters from 14, 15, 16 and becoming homegrown, which is pushing some of our youngsters out."
You aren't really posting Sol Campbell's opinion ... to me?
I drove through a main road in a Lib dem area last night. Usually at election time it has 6+ LD houses with posters, 1 Con and 1 UKIP. This time just 3 for LEAVE.
I'm not seeing posters in windows at all. Putting this down to the referendum splitting family views to an extent that a GE normally doesn't.
Remain were out twice at central London tube stations on Monday and Tuesday, Leave were nowhere to be seen, both sides are now focusing on getting out their vote
I had to smile at Waterloo last night.
Remain: about 15 rather aggressive and serious young people in T shirts handing out leaflets.
Leave: One young lady in a gimp mask waving a union jack with the slogan 'do you feel constricted and tied down by the EU'
Are you seriously suggesting that Germany has no non-financial influence in the corridors of the EU?
I am suggesting that the elected heads of 26 other sovereign nations will not vote against their National interests just because "the German CBI wants it"
I thought Brexiteers were always complaining about sclerotic EU decision making?
Apparently all it takes is one word from a German...
There is a difference between issues that don't particularly hurt Germany (addressing the underlying Greek economic problems, migrants) and issues that do (access to markets for German exports)
Even in a sclerotic EU, where there is a German will, there is usually, not always, a way. A solution good enough to protect the German banks is always found just in time re Greek debt, but the underlying economic problems are kicked down the road as only Greeks are hurt. And you think the Leave campaign is racist.
(OK, that last bit was gratuitously polemic, but couldn't resist)
How he's doing with Con MPs, and Con members though...
Remain still has a plurality of Tory MPs, I expect Cameron would not be in floods of tears if some Tory members went to UKIP
It takes 40? 50? MPs to trigger a leadership contest?
If Leave wins, or Con voters overwhelmingly vote Leave, all the Remain Con MPs are going to be looking for a Leave leader to hide behind at the next election.
– The former England international football star said he is backing Brexit so that young British sporting talent would be nurtured and given greater opportunities at British clubs. He said: "I'm looking at the sporting side - how youngsters aren't getting the opportunities at some of the big clubs and some of the big clubs are bringing in youngsters from 14, 15, 16 and becoming homegrown, which is pushing some of our youngsters out."
You aren't really posting Sol Campbell's opinion ... to me?
That is a new low in this campaign,.
Vox Sol, vox dei.
Don't let Gove see you using that sort of language...
Reflecting Bobby George's lingo and to quote the great-thinker James May - "Cock"
Having said I'd sit the referendum out, I've actually been delivering leaflets across my ward for the past few days. Nothing from the official campaign - but a leaflet from our MEP talking about their work, and what they are achieving through the EU. It hardly mentions the referendum but people have said it was refreshing and informative compared to the shouting of the campaigns. We'll have to see.
One thing I have noticed, lots of LEAVE posters on major road junctions, at the side of A roads etc, but several small remain posters on the houses in my ward, in some areas where I wouldn't expect. Leave clearly more visible, but road junctions don't vote as often as people in my experience. No idea if it's anything more than a straw in the wind.
Almost at the stage where whichever side wins, I want them to win well - so there's no suggestion that we'll have a rerun any time soon.
I drove through a main road in a Lib dem area last night. Usually at election time it has 6+ LD houses with posters, 1 Con and 1 UKIP. This time just 3 for LEAVE.
I took a long stroll round parts of my town yesterday evening.
What is interesting is there was comparatively little in the way of posters from either side compared to a GE. This is not an area where people are shy about expressing their vote.
However what little there was was enormously stereotyped. The few Remain posters are only to be spotted on the most wealthy streets, most definitely As and Bs. Most amusingly the Labour office plastered on Remain posters is in one of those very wealthy areas. Everywhere else you only get Leave posters.
I have seen Labour In and LD In posters on some modest cottage windows, as well as a Leave poster on the same road and a huge Leave poster and UKIP Leave poster on a fence by a house by the main road
I wonder if the final polls are going to pick up any last minute switchback to Remain?
Incidentally have PBers noticed any significant campaigning by less high profile Tory MPs who've declared for Remain? Helen Grant has been conspicuous by her almost total absence here.
Whos Helen Grant?
MP for Maidstone and the Weald. While I am a LD Remainer my son campaigns for Leave and has wryly observed that had Maidstone been captured by the LDs at the last election (it was a target seat strange as that may seem in hindsight) the LD MP would be campaigning far more actively that Ms Grant has done. There may be parallels in other seats.
That's interesting - lots of MPs are invisible in their own seats, for career survival reasons.
IIRC someone pretty noisy in Gavin Barwell's local party has just resigned and written an open letter that's been all over Twitter. She's not impressed at his behaviour, and made a veiled threat about how he'd be writing another book shortly - this time on how to lose a marginal seat.
What an idiot - his achievement in holding the seat last time was phenomenal! Maomentum in the Tory party - who'd have thought it.
Just out of interest, how accurate did the anecdata posted on this forum prove to be for GE 2015?
Almost certainly confirmation bias, but I remember notme, TSE and MarqueeMark all perplexed, alongside myself, that the polls do didn't reflect what we saw on the doorstep.
For me I knew we were doing well on the day itself - got cheered and hooted at encouragingly just for wearing a blue rosette.
Just out of interest, how accurate did the anecdata posted on this forum prove to be for GE 2015?
Almost certainly confirmation bias, but I remember notme, TSE and MarqueeMark all perplexed, alongside myself, that the polls do didn't reflect what we saw on the doorstep.
For me I knew we were doing well on the day itself - got cheered and hooted at encouragingly just for wearing a blue rosette.
Conversely, IOS was telling us how strong Labour's ground game was....
Remain were out twice at central London tube stations on Monday and Tuesday, Leave were nowhere to be seen, both sides are now focusing on getting out their vote
On Monday evening there was a lone and rather forlorn Remain campaigner holding a Remain placard outside Embankment tube station, totally ignored by the crowds passing. Although I admired his dedication, I couldn't help thinking that he looked just like one of those chaps one used to see holding a 'The End of the World is Nigh' placard on Oxford Street.
Embankment tube ?
Surely that should be a monolithic "remain" vote ?
Some commuters at Embankment tube may well live in the Home Counties and vote Leave or at least be lean Remain not certain Remain
No new trade barriers post brexit then. None, zip, nada, zilch.
Oh we're listening to experts now ?
Mr. Eagles, I saw some figures this morning, I don't know how accurate they are, but they made interesting reading.
Suppose if we voted to Leave and the EU decided to punish us by treating us the same way as Korea, Australia, the USA etc.. We would face tariffs on our exports of 3 to 4%.
The alternative is that we continue to pay so as we are not subject to such tariffs. The amount we pay (nett) is some £8.5bn.
Given the amount we export to the EU that £8.5bn is equivalent to a tariff of 7%.
In other words even if we were subject to EU import tariffs we would still be better off out. Plus of course the financial situation would be improved by us imposing our own tariffs on imports from the EU.
You are a lawyer, assume for the sake of argument that the figures I have given you are correct and argue how this is a good deal financially for the UK.
I'm not Tony Blair, I'm not going to base an argument on some unsourced data.
I need hard numbers.
There arent any. They change all the time and you have to use your best judgement.
Surely the most obvious solution if Brexit happens is for the UK to join TTIP as a third party with the US and EU, under the same terms as the other two parties.
I wonder if the final polls are going to pick up any last minute switchback to Remain?
Incidentally have PBers noticed any significant campaigning by less high profile Tory MPs who've declared for Remain? Helen Grant has been conspicuous by her almost total absence here.
Whos Helen Grant?
MP for Maidstone and the Weald. While I am a LD Remainer my son campaigns for Leave and has wryly observed that had Maidstone been captured by the LDs at the last election (it was a target seat strange as that may seem in hindsight) the LD MP would be campaigning far more actively that Ms Grant has done. There may be parallels in other seats.
That's interesting - lots of MPs are invisible in their own seats, for career survival reasons. IIRC someone pretty noisy in Gavin Barwell's local party has just resigned and written an open letter that's been all over Twitter. She's not impressed at his behaviour, and made a veiled threat about how he'd be writing another book shortly - this time on how to lose a marginal seat.
Barwell is such a publicity seeker that a local paper advised him to stop sending them pr articles some time ago. When I first saw him I thought that cannibals had shrunk his head and left the rest alone.
Having said I'd sit the referendum out, I've actually been delivering leaflets across my ward for the past few days. Nothing from the official campaign - but a leaflet from our MEP talking about their work, and what they are achieving through the EU. It hardly mentions the referendum but people have said it was refreshing and informative compared to the shouting of the campaigns. We'll have to see.
One thing I have noticed, lots of LEAVE posters on major road junctions, at the side of A roads etc, but several small remain posters on the houses in my ward, in some areas where I wouldn't expect. Leave clearly more visible, but road junctions don't vote as often as people in my experience. No idea if it's anything more than a straw in the wind.
Almost at the stage where whichever side wins, I want them to win well - so there's no suggestion that we'll have a rerun any time soon.
I drove through a main road in a Lib dem area last night. Usually at election time it has 6+ LD houses with posters, 1 Con and 1 UKIP. This time just 3 for LEAVE.
I took a long stroll round parts of my town yesterday evening.
What is interesting is there was comparatively little in the way of posters from either side compared to a GE. This is not an area where people are shy about expressing their vote.
However what little there was was enormously stereotyped. The few Remain posters are only to be spotted on the most wealthy streets, most definitely As and Bs. Most amusingly the Labour office plastered on Remain posters is in one of those very wealthy areas. Everywhere else you only get Leave posters.
I have seen Labour In and LD In posters on some modest cottage windows, as well as a Leave poster on the same road and a huge Leave poster and UKIP Leave poster on a fence by a house by the main road
I should point out where I live should be one of the better Leave areas so I'm not drawing conclusions about the vote from it, I just found it funny from the conversations we've had on here. I could take one look at a house and guess correctly what poster it would have.
How he's doing with Con MPs, and Con members though...
Remain still has a plurality of Tory MPs, I expect Cameron would not be in floods of tears if some Tory members went to UKIP
It takes 40? 50? MPs to trigger a leadership contest?
If Leave wins, or Con voters overwhelmingly vote Leave, all the Remain Con MPs are going to be looking for a Leave leader to hide behind at the next election.
If Leave wins of course Cameron is toast, I was speaking about a narrow Remain
No new trade barriers post brexit then. None, zip, nada, zilch.
Oh we're listening to experts now ?
Mr. Eagles, I saw some figures this morning, I don't know how accurate they are, but they made interesting reading.
Suppose if we voted to Leave and the EU decided to punish us by treating us the same way as Korea, Australia, the USA etc.. We would face tariffs on our exports of 3 to 4%.
The alternative is that we continue to pay so as we are not subject to such tariffs. The amount we pay (nett) is some £8.5bn.
Given the amount we export to the EU that £8.5bn is equivalent to a tariff of 7%.
In other words even if we were subject to EU import tariffs we would still be better off out. Plus of course the financial situation would be improved by us imposing our own tariffs on imports from the EU.
You are a lawyer, assume for the sake of argument that the figures I have given you are correct and argue how this is a good deal financially for the UK.
It's not quite as straightforward as this. If there is a 4% tariff on items from the UK, but not from Germany, businesses will invest in Germany rather than the UK, so all the business and jobs that would otherwise happen in the UK are lost - including to non-EU countries. The tax on that business and those jobs will also be lost. If we have to pay a lump sum, the investment decision on the tariff point at least will be neutral.
OK but that lump sum is coming from the UK taxpayers. Suppose the HMG set up an office to reimburse the tariff charges for exporters. There would be a cost to such a move but it would be nowhere near the 3% difference. The effect you mention would be wiped out and we would as a nation still end up quids in.
They could do that in principle, although I think they may be prohibited subsidies under WTO rules. Then there are the non-tariff barriers to consider, which also affect investment.
I don't doubt we can come up with a deal that is acceptable to all sides given where they are negotiating from. That deal is unlikely to be more favourable than what we have already and is quite likely to considerably less favourable.
I wonder if the final polls are going to pick up any last minute switchback to Remain?
Incidentally have PBers noticed any significant campaigning by less high profile Tory MPs who've declared for Remain? Helen Grant has been conspicuous by her almost total absence here.
Whos Helen Grant?
MP for Maidstone and the Weald. While I am a LD Remainer my son campaigns for Leave and has wryly observed that had Maidstone been captured by the LDs at the last election (it was a target seat strange as that may seem in hindsight) the LD MP would be campaigning far more actively that Ms Grant has done. There may be parallels in other seats.
That's interesting - lots of MPs are invisible in their own seats, for career survival reasons. IIRC someone pretty noisy in Gavin Barwell's local party has just resigned and written an open letter that's been all over Twitter. She's not impressed at his behaviour, and made a veiled threat about how he'd be writing another book shortly - this time on how to lose a marginal seat.
Barwell is such a publicity seeker that a local paper advised him to stop sending them pr articles some time ago. When I first saw him I thought that cannibals had shrunk his head and left the rest alone.
Just out of interest, how accurate did the anecdata posted on this forum prove to be for GE 2015?
Not very well, in my memory. Mr. Smithson, OGH, insisted that it was impossible (not just unlikely but impossible) for the Conservatives to win an overall majority unless they were ten point something ahead in the polls. The general range of opinion resembled the perceived wisdom (NOM). As to actual anecdotes I seem to recall we had many, mostly favouring the poster's perceived views.
The star of the evening was Ave_it, who we don't see to much of these days. Once the results started to come in he called it correct down to one seat. I have always thought that Ave_it got far too little credit for that.
Surely the most obvious solution if Brexit happens is for the UK to join TTIP as a third party with the US and EU, under the same terms as the other two parties.
Great plan. The EU states open up their markets to the US and the UK, as a non-member, reaps most of the the benefits of the inward investment.
We just need to figure out how to do this without the EU noticing.
Comments
With all attention on the EU is it not likely that the only people who Cameron will find it easy to satisfy at the moment are people who are both Con and Remain. So he is bound to be a big net negative.
Ditto with Corbyn - Lab Leave supporters won't be happy with him.
Whereas Farage is satisfying almost all Leave supporters (whether or not they would vote UKIP) because the only political issue anyone is thinking about right now is the EU Ref.
Do Leavers actually believe this Turkey nonsense? I mean, really?
(of sorts!!)
It's an ill wind, etc - at least Shadsy's Christmas bonus looks secure for another year.
PIMCO'S AMEY SAYS PIMCO SEES A ROUGHLY 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF A BREXIT
Private polling?
I've given several copies of Mr Hannan's 'Why Vote Leave' book to undecided voters. I'll be interested to learn what the sales of that book have been.
Gove say's he'll resign if Remain wins. Things are looking up!
And in whose interest is it to be beastly to the UK post-Brexit pour encourager les autres? Not the leaders of the 27 states whose votes you reference, but the unelected bureaucrats, the useless EU MPs and the gravy trainers who don't actually get to vote on these particular issues.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/a-vote-to-remain-is-a-ballot-against-gove-and-johnsons-repulsive-politics-a7094971.html
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/a-vote-to-remain-is-a-ballot-against-gove-and-johnsons-repulsive-politics-a7094971.html
If it's not representative of opinion round here, it's still lazy.
I thought Brexiteers were always complaining about sclerotic EU decision making?
Apparently all it takes is one word from a German...
"No, the storms will track along the south coast from the Isle of Wight, head across north Kent to the Essex coast just skimming the eastern Boroughs of London, then head north towards Lincolnshire... "
Stopping just over Boston, and this combined with the high tide will cause flooding in the polling stations. Turnout 1%.
Turkey never had the leverage of millions of refugees before, nor a leader ruthless enough to use it.
And Europe never had a leader mad enough to be ransomed.
Now both those conditions are in place.
If it's a Leave win then Osborne needs replacing by Gove on Friday morning if the PM wants to survive until Monday.
– The former England international football star said he is backing Brexit so that young British sporting talent would be nurtured and given greater opportunities at British clubs. He said: "I'm looking at the sporting side - how youngsters aren't getting the opportunities at some of the big clubs and some of the big clubs are bringing in youngsters from 14, 15, 16 and becoming homegrown, which is pushing some of our youngsters out."
This looks completely wrong.
Registered voters = 46.4m. If only 75% are registered that implies 62m adults in UK.
Which in turn would imply a UK population of approx 75m.
God's trying to tell you guys something!
What is interesting is there was comparatively little in the way of posters from either side compared to a GE. This is not an area where people are shy about expressing their vote.
However what little there was was enormously stereotyped. The few Remain posters are only to be spotted on the most wealthy streets, most definitely As and Bs. Most amusingly the Labour office plastered on Remain posters is in one of those very wealthy areas. Everywhere else you only get Leave posters.
Sack the guy who knew it would happen and replace him with the guy who said it wouldn't cos he knows better than experts.
Genius!
Rather cloudy across England with thundery downpours in the south-east. Some sunshine for western parts of England and Wales. Northern Ireland and Scotland will have sunshine and some heavy showers.
That is a new low in this campaign,.
Er hat Angst.
EDIT: Apart from I might get wet cycling to the station
With 2015 Con voters Mr Cameron is +61/-33.
p.4
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/pm-june-2016-tables.pdf
How he's doing with Con MPs, and Con members though...
IIRC someone pretty noisy in Gavin Barwell's local party has just resigned and written an open letter that's been all over Twitter. She's not impressed at his behaviour, and made a veiled threat about how he'd be writing another book shortly - this time on how to lose a marginal seat.
Surely that should be a monolithic "remain" vote ?
I had to smile at Waterloo last night.
Remain: about 15 rather aggressive and serious young people in T shirts handing out leaflets.
Leave: One young lady in a gimp mask waving a union jack with the slogan 'do you feel constricted and tied down by the EU'
WillS
Even in a sclerotic EU, where there is a German will, there is usually, not always, a way. A solution good enough to protect the German banks is always found just in time re Greek debt, but the underlying economic problems are kicked down the road as only Greeks are hurt. And you think the Leave campaign is racist.
(OK, that last bit was gratuitously polemic, but couldn't resist)
If Leave wins, or Con voters overwhelmingly vote Leave, all the Remain Con MPs are going to be looking for a Leave leader to hide behind at the next election.
Reflecting Bobby George's lingo and to quote the great-thinker James May - "Cock"
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/05/07/the-exit-poll-is-great-news-for-the-tories/
For me I knew we were doing well on the day itself - got cheered and hooted at encouragingly just for wearing a blue rosette.
Very few comments about a majority before 10pm, but we realised it was on well before anyone else during the night - including Betfair and the bookies
Sad.
I don't doubt we can come up with a deal that is acceptable to all sides given where they are negotiating from. That deal is unlikely to be more favourable than what we have already and is quite likely to considerably less favourable.
*innocent face*
The star of the evening was Ave_it, who we don't see to much of these days. Once the results started to come in he called it correct down to one seat. I have always thought that Ave_it got far too little credit for that.
We just need to figure out how to do this without the EU noticing.
[some Dutch sailors on a boat were the only voices for Remain]