so the chances of them getting this right first time must be slim.
Unless they've realised what I suspect: that mobiles are the future for polling ...
I suspect getting sufficient over 65s via mobile apps may be a challenge, and of those you do reach, their representativeness of their cohort may be a problem.....before you get to the question of weighting.....
so the chances of them getting this right first time must be slim.
Unless they've realised what I suspect: that mobiles are the future for polling ...
I suspect getting sufficient over 65s via mobile apps may be a challenge, and of those you do reach, their representativeness of their cohort may be a problem.....before you get to the question of weighting.....
Well if that was true the lead would be higher than 20% given the relative support for Leave in over 65's.
You're being rather condescending though? You might not use a mobile but most over 65's I know certainly do. Plenty also use iPads.
I have lurked on this site for years but felt the need to comment on Qriously. I may not post again but I think folk need to know their reputation. Its not bad, it has been voted the worst by admen. Why admen, well they mix adverts with their questions. http://adage.com/article/digital/worst-ad-tech-qriously/293864/
so the chances of them getting this right first time must be slim.
Unless they've realised what I suspect: that mobiles are the future for polling ...
I suspect getting sufficient over 65s via mobile apps may be a challenge, and of those you do reach, their representativeness of their cohort may be a problem.....before you get to the question of weighting.....
Well if that was true the lead would be higher than 20% given the relative support for Leave in over 65's.
You're being rather condescending though? You might not use a mobile but most over 65's I know certainly do. Plenty also use iPads.
I think you're being rather optimistic that a firm with no experience in published political polling will get its weightings right first time, when firms with years of experience are struggling.
I have lurked on this site for years but felt the need to comment on Qriously. I may not post again but I think folk need to know their reputation. Its not bad, it has been voted the worst by admen. Why admen, well they mix adverts with their questions. http://adage.com/article/digital/worst-ad-tech-qriously/293864/
I have lurked on this site for years but felt the need to comment on Qriously. I may not post again but I think folk need to know their reputation. Its not bad, it has been voted the worst by admen. Why admen, well they mix adverts with their questions. http://adage.com/article/digital/worst-ad-tech-qriously/293864/
Yeah I saw that but that's got nothing to do with polling or anything else they do. It was a vote about the name 'Qriously.'
I'm not defending this poll: just suggesting that whilst exercising caution, it probably shouldn't be airily dismissed.
And look how well the British Polling Council firms performed in GE 2015 A BPC stamp of approval is no guarantee of accuracy.
so the chances of them getting this right first time must be slim.
Unless they've realised what I suspect: that mobiles are the future for polling ...
I suspect getting sufficient over 65s via mobile apps may be a challenge, and of those you do reach, their representativeness of their cohort may be a problem.....before you get to the question of weighting.....
.
I think you're being rather optimistic that a firm with no experience in published political polling will get its weightings right first time, when firms with years of experience are struggling.
I'm not sure you paid any attention to what I wrote.
I have lurked on this site for years but felt the need to comment on Qriously. I may not post again but I think folk need to know their reputation. Its not bad, it has been voted the worst by admen. Why admen, well they mix adverts with their questions. http://adage.com/article/digital/worst-ad-tech-qriously/293864/
This is the kind of post we need Rob ! Come back !
I'd just like to comment about the finding which, to me, is the most bizarre: and that's the notion that after the murder the Leave lead should have risen.
If that's true, and I find it quite hard to believe, there's one possible explanation which tallies with their findings and some anecdotes I've received. It's this:
Remain voters have been switched off politics by what happened whereas it won't make most Leave voters alter their vote. So a significant number of Remainers went into the Don't Know camp. If that's true I think it's likely to be temporary and they would probably be expected to return come Thursday.
Morning all. I see that Thomas Mair has been charged with murder overnight. Hopefully things will now move on for everyone except the poor family. Their lives have been sadly changed forever.
This morning's TV paper reviews are going to be very interesting to watch, with them unable to talk about any of the front pages!
I imagine the police (and the PB mod police) will be on the look out for people talking too much about the case, which is now 'sub judice'.
so the chances of them getting this right first time must be slim.
Unless they've realised what I suspect: that mobiles are the future for polling ...
I suspect getting sufficient over 65s via mobile apps may be a challenge, and of those you do reach, their representativeness of their cohort may be a problem.....before you get to the question of weighting.....
.
I think you're being rather optimistic that a firm with no experience in published political polling will get its weightings right first time, when firms with years of experience are struggling.
I'm not sure you paid any attention to what I wrote.
I thought I'd try to stick to the challenges of weighting polls (the topic in hand) than getting into debates about app usage, and accusing other posters of being 'rather condescending'.....
so the chances of them getting this right first time must be slim.
Unless they've realised what I suspect: that mobiles are the future for polling ...
I suspect getting sufficient over 65s via mobile apps may be a challenge, and of those you do reach, their representativeness of their cohort may be a problem.....before you get to the question of weighting.....
.
I think you're being rather optimistic that a firm with no experience in published political polling will get its weightings right first time, when firms with years of experience are struggling.
I'm not sure you paid any attention to what I wrote.
I thought I'd try to stick to the challenges of weighting polls (the topic in hand) than getting into debates about app usage, and accusing other posters of being 'rather condescending'.....
Fair enough Carlotta. My point is that mobiles might stand a far better chance of hitting the sweet spot on weighting than landline or fixed computers. I suspect that mobiles are the future for polling. I'm not sure I know anyone who doesn't own one, do you? Conversely I know less than 10% of people who still use their landline even if they have one.
I have lurked on this site for years but felt the need to comment on Qriously. I may not post again but I think folk need to know their reputation. Its not bad, it has been voted the worst by admen. Why admen, well they mix adverts with their questions. http://adage.com/article/digital/worst-ad-tech-qriously/293864/
Rob, welcome. It's great when lurkers see something being discussed in their area of expertise - and can remain silent no longer!
Morning all. I see that Thomas Mair has been charged with murder overnight. Hopefully things will now move on for everyone except the poor family. Their lives have been sadly changed forever.
This morning's TV paper reviews are going to be very interesting to watch, with them unable to talk about any of the front pages!
I imagine the police (and the PB mod police) will be on the look out for people talking too much about the case, which is now 'sub judice'.
Mr Mair will appear at Westminster Magistrates' Court on Saturday and faces a number of other charges, including grievous bodily harm. He is further charged with possession of a firearm with intent and possession of an offensive weapon, the force said.
Morning all. I see that Thomas Mair has been charged with murder overnight. Hopefully things will now move on for everyone except the poor family. Their lives have been sadly changed forever.
This morning's TV paper reviews are going to be very interesting to watch, with them unable to talk about any of the front pages!
I imagine the police (and the PB mod police) will be on the look out for people talking too much about the case, which is now 'sub judice'.
I wonder whether that was a motive in attempting to establish the "Brexit killer" media narrative so quickly?
I don't doubt the media people who attempted to do it are cynical enough.
so the chances of them getting this right first time must be slim.
Unless they've realised what I suspect: that mobiles are the future for polling ...
I suspect getting sufficient over 65s via mobile apps may be a challenge, and of those you do reach, their representativeness of their cohort may be a problem.....before you get to the question of weighting.....
.
I think you're being rather optimistic that a firm with no experience in published political polling will get its weightings right first time, when firms with years of experience are struggling.
I'm not sure you paid any attention to what I wrote.
I thought I'd try to stick to the challenges of weighting polls (the topic in hand) than getting into debates about app usage, and accusing other posters of being 'rather condescending'.....
Fair enough Carlotta. My point is that mobiles might stand a far better chance of hitting the sweet spot on weighting than landline or fixed computers. I suspect that mobiles are the future for polling. I'm not sure I know anyone who doesn't own one, do you? Conversely I know less than 10% of people who still use their landline even if they have one.
I agree mobiles may well be the future of polling - their ubiquity is a major plus - but its very early days, and as with other methodologies the representativeness of the samples one reaches will need thorough research.
I wouldn't be surprised if the result on Friday was 60:40 - one way or the other - we already know what theories will be trotted out to explain either result. Nobody knows.
It'll be transferred to Crown Court of course. Then it'll be interesting to see if that's Westminster or the Central Criminal Court (Old Bailey).
Edit: silly me. There isn't a Crown Court at Westminster. So it will probably go to either Southwark or the Old Bailey. That's if he's not found to be insane.
Westminster Magistrate's Court is where Terrorism cases for E&W are heard.
It's a murder charge so it won't be tried there.
You're reading the hermeneutic of suspicion where there is none Carlotta. She was a member of Parliament killed whilst doing her job. Quite right the first hearing is at Westminster.
Westminster Magistrate's Court is where Terrorism cases for E&W are heard.
It's a murder charge so it won't be tried there.
You're reading the hermeneutic of suspicion where there is none Carlotta. She was a member of Parliament killed whilst doing her job. Quite right the first hearing is at Westminster.
I guess we'll find out later on today.
On what planet are cases transferred to the jurisdiction of a victim's place of work?
Westminster Magistrate's Court is where Terrorism cases for E&W are heard.
It's a murder charge so it won't be tried there.
You're reading the hermeneutic of suspicion where there is none Carlotta. She was a member of Parliament killed whilst doing her job. Quite right the first hearing is at Westminster.
I guess we'll find out later on today.
On what planet are cases transferred to the jurisdiction of a victim's place of work?
Carlotta, this murder has wider implications than just another murder! It's quite right and proper that the hearing should be at Westminster: it's a good and appropriate move for something so significant.
(And Westminster is not the only place to hear terrorism related offences. Southwark and the Central Criminal Court do. Westminster will not try a murder case as it's magistrate level.)
Right, I'm bowing out of this. The hermeneutic of suspicion is running amok.
Westminster Magistrate's Court is where Terrorism cases for E&W are heard.
It's a murder charge so it won't be tried there.
You're reading the hermeneutic of suspicion where there is none Carlotta. She was a member of Parliament killed whilst doing her job. Quite right the first hearing is at Westminster.
I guess we'll find out later on today.
On what planet are cases transferred to the jurisdiction of a victim's place of work?
Interesting one. I would have expected Leeds magistrates. Maybe the investigation was done out of the National Crime Agency given the profile of the victim, hence bringing the suspect to Westminster.
Either way, today's appearance will be the usual two minutes, where the suspect confirms his name and is remanded in custody to appear later at the Crown Court.
Morning all. I see that Thomas Mair has been charged with murder overnight. Hopefully things will now move on for everyone except the poor family. Their lives have been sadly changed forever.
This morning's TV paper reviews are going to be very interesting to watch, with them unable to talk about any of the front pages!
I imagine the police (and the PB mod police) will be on the look out for people talking too much about the case, which is now 'sub judice'.
Legally, there is no change in the status of reporting cases when someone's charged - they are already "active" at the point of arrest (this changed a couple of decades ago). Trouble is, there's no objective test of what causes a "serious risk of substantial prejudice", so it's all up to the judgment of editors and their lawyers. In practice, you have to seriously be taking the piss.. especially at this stage of the case, months before a jury's involved.
Morning all. I see that Thomas Mair has been charged with murder overnight. Hopefully things will now move on for everyone except the poor family. Their lives have been sadly changed forever.
This morning's TV paper reviews are going to be very interesting to watch, with them unable to talk about any of the front pages!
I imagine the police (and the PB mod police) will be on the look out for people talking too much about the case, which is now 'sub judice'.
Legally, there is no change in the status of reporting cases when someone's charged - they are already "active" at the point of arrest (this changed a couple of decades ago). Trouble is, there's no objective test of what causes a "serious risk of substantial prejudice", so it's all up to the judgment of editors and their lawyers. In practice, you have to seriously be taking the piss.. especially at this stage of the case, months before a jury's involved.
Well, in the last couple of days it's been quite clearly a media free-for-all, will be interesting to note if there's a significant change in tone now that someone is charged with the murder.
I'd expect the TV news to discuss only the victim today, with any discussion relating to the accused being strictly factual (name, age, address etc) rather than speculation or hearsay.
IANAL but this is the usual pattern in recent high profile cases, the last murder of such interest was probably that of Lee Rigby three years ago
Well, in the last couple of days it's been quite clearly a media free-for-all, will be interesting to note if there's a significant change in tone now that someone is charged with the murder.
After Massie and Toynbee, this is the latest article that Leavers are finding uncomfortable There are many people I respect and admire voting leave – there are people in my family voting leave. I understand their reasons. But they must stomach the reality that a vote for leave will be taken by Farage and countless others as a vote for him, a vote for his posters, a vote for his ideas, a vote for his quiet malice, a vote for his smallness in the face of vast horrors. Is it worth it?
Morning all. I see that Thomas Mair has been charged with murder overnight. Hopefully things will now move on for everyone except the poor family. Their lives have been sadly changed forever.
This morning's TV paper reviews are going to be very interesting to watch, with them unable to talk about any of the front pages!
I imagine the police (and the PB mod police) will be on the look out for people talking too much about the case, which is now 'sub judice'.
Legally, there is no change in the status of reporting cases when someone's charged - they are already "active" at the point of arrest (this changed a couple of decades ago). Trouble is, there's no objective test of what causes a "serious risk of substantial prejudice", so it's all up to the judgment of editors and their lawyers. In practice, you have to seriously be taking the piss.. especially at this stage of the case, months before a jury's involved.
Unless reporting restrictions are imposed, surely, in which case Scott P.'s contempt point applies? I wouldn't be surprised if those restrictions are applied here. If I were his Defence lawyer it would be one of my first actions.
Westminster Magistrate's Court is where Terrorism cases for E&W are heard.
It's a murder charge so it won't be tried there.
You're reading the hermeneutic of suspicion where there is none Carlotta. She was a member of Parliament killed whilst doing her job. Quite right the first hearing is at Westminster.
I guess we'll find out later on today.
On what planet are cases transferred to the jurisdiction of a victim's place of work?
Interesting one. I would have expected Leeds magistrates. Maybe the investigation was done out of the National Crime Agency given the profile of the victim, hence bringing the suspect to Westminster.
Its West Yorkshire Police who have announced the charges.
I too would have expected Leeds Magistrate's Court.
Well, in the last couple of days it's been quite clearly a media free-for-all, will be interesting to note if there's a significant change in tone now that someone is charged with the murder.
Contempt rules apply, do they not?
Yes, that was my understanding. Mr @Harris_Tweed below disagreed, saying that it was the point of arrest rather than charge that was relevant. If the paper reviews this morning tiptoe carefully around all the front pages then the contempt rules are clearly in place.
Westminster Magistrate's Court is where Terrorism cases for E&W are heard.
It's a murder charge so it won't be tried there.
You're reading the hermeneutic of suspicion where there is none Carlotta. She was a member of Parliament killed whilst doing her job. Quite right the first hearing is at Westminster.
I guess we'll find out later on today.
On what planet are cases transferred to the jurisdiction of a victim's place of work?
Interesting one. I would have expected Leeds magistrates. Maybe the investigation was done out of the National Crime Agency given the profile of the victim, hence bringing the suspect to Westminster.
I too would have expected Leeds Magistrate's Court.
I guess you don't work in criminal law Carlotta?
The case will be tried at either Southwark or the Old Bailey: I would imagine the latter. Cases of national importance are transferred there and it's right and proper. This is a case of gravitas and national significance.
By the way, all serious crimes go through the NCA. The CPS will also have had a role.
After Massie and Toynbee, this is the latest article that Leavers are finding uncomfortable There are many people I respect and admire voting leave – there are people in my family voting leave. I understand their reasons. But they must stomach the reality that a vote for leave will be taken by Farage and countless others as a vote for him, a vote for his posters, a vote for his ideas, a vote for his quiet malice, a vote for his smallness in the face of vast horrors. Is it worth it?
After Massie and Toynbee, this is the latest article that Leavers are finding uncomfortable There are many people I respect and admire voting leave – there are people in my family voting leave. I understand their reasons. But they must stomach the reality that a vote for leave will be taken by Farage and countless others as a vote for him, a vote for his posters, a vote for his ideas, a vote for his quiet malice, a vote for his smallness in the face of vast horrors. Is it worth it?
Westminster Magistrate's Court is where Terrorism cases for E&W are heard.
It's a murder charge so it won't be tried there.
You're reading the hermeneutic of suspicion where there is none Carlotta. She was a member of Parliament killed whilst doing her job. Quite right the first hearing is at Westminster.
I guess we'll find out later on today.
On what planet are cases transferred to the jurisdiction of a victim's place of work?
Interesting one. I would have expected Leeds magistrates. Maybe the investigation was done out of the National Crime Agency given the profile of the victim, hence bringing the suspect to Westminster.
I too would have expected Leeds Magistrate's Court.
The case will be tried at either Southwark or the Old Bailey: I would imagine the latter. Cases of national importance are transferred there and it's right and proper. This is a case of gravitas and national significance.
After Massie and Toynbee, this is the latest article that Leavers are finding uncomfortable There are many people I respect and admire voting leave – there are people in my family voting leave. I understand their reasons. But they must stomach the reality that a vote for leave will be taken by Farage and countless others as a vote for him, a vote for his posters, a vote for his ideas, a vote for his quiet malice, a vote for his smallness in the face of vast horrors. Is it worth it?
Leave is absolutely not Nigel Farage's plaything, he isn't an MP and will have no power whatsoever after the referendum. This is just the continuation of the scare tactics of Remain. We are not finding it "uncomfortable", rather we see it as unjustified scaremongering, the continuation of the PM's "Nigel Farage's Little Englanders" comments from a couple of weeks ago. Low politics.
But having said that, how many undecideds are reading the Guardian?
Westminster Magistrate's Court is where Terrorism cases for E&W are heard.
It's a murder charge so it won't be tried there.
You're reading the hermeneutic of suspicion where there is none Carlotta. She was a member of Parliament killed whilst doing her job. Quite right the first hearing is at Westminster.
I guess we'll find out later on today.
On what planet are cases transferred to the jurisdiction of a victim's place of work?
Interesting one. I would have expected Leeds magistrates. Maybe the investigation was done out of the National Crime Agency given the profile of the victim, hence bringing the suspect to Westminster.
Its West Yorkshire Police who have announced the charges.
I too would have expected Leeds Magistrate's Court.
Mmm... I guess we'll find out in a few hours' time.
Leave is absolutely not Nigel Farage's plaything, he isn't an MP and will have no power whatsoever after the referendum.
This is the uncomfortable bit. Pretending that the vote is about high ideals while knowing that millions of people are voting for Farage's explicitly xenophobic message.
After Massie and Toynbee, this is the latest article that Leavers are finding uncomfortable There are many people I respect and admire voting leave – there are people in my family voting leave. I understand their reasons. But they must stomach the reality that a vote for leave will be taken by Farage and countless others as a vote for him, a vote for his posters, a vote for his ideas, a vote for his quiet malice, a vote for his smallness in the face of vast horrors. Is it worth it?
Leave is absolutely not Nigel Farage's plaything, he isn't an MP and will have no power whatsoever after the referendum.
This is the uncomfortable bit. Pretending that the vote is about high ideals while knowing that millions of people are voting for Farage's explicitly xenophobic message.
There's no pretending in wanting to be ruled by politicians that you can kick out if you don't like what they're doing! To be perfectly honest I wish someone would have told Mr Farge to shut up until next weekend, he really isn't helping convert undecided voters, was always going to take it a step too far at some point.
Leave is absolutely not Nigel Farage's plaything, he isn't an MP and will have no power whatsoever after the referendum.
This is the uncomfortable bit. Pretending that the vote is about high ideals while knowing that millions of people are voting for Farage's explicitly xenophobic message.
Resolving what a Leave vote means is not going to be easy. If it doesn't involve major reductions or even reversal of migration flows there will be a lot of angry voters.
Resolving what a Leave vote means is not going to be easy. If it doesn't involve major reductions or even reversal of migration flows there will be a lot of angry voters.
After Massie and Toynbee, this is the latest article that Leavers are finding uncomfortable There are many people I respect and admire voting leave – there are people in my family voting leave. I understand their reasons. But they must stomach the reality that a vote for leave will be taken by Farage and countless others as a vote for him, a vote for his posters, a vote for his ideas, a vote for his quiet malice, a vote for his smallness in the face of vast horrors. Is it worth it?
If you turn this graph upside down, it shows tinfoil sales...
@ianmulheirn: IMF on impact of Brexit. Unless you're a conspiracy theorist it's time to stop saying 'Remain is exaggerating' https://t.co/qx88Ih0i0W
You don't understand much about economics, do you?
That graph is designed to make you think the economy will shrink. But it is actually a reduction in growth over a *base* scenario, which in-and-of itself has some questionable assumptions.
Under its "limited" scenario - in which Britain stayed in the EEA - the IMF forecast growth would slip from 2.2% to 1.4% next year. Significantly smaller drop than the Treasury forecast.
Ooooh. Scary.
Under its ‘adverse scenario’, economic growth will slow to 1.1 per cent this year. Then GDP shrinks by 0.8 per cent in 2017 before growing by just 0.6 per cent in 2018 and 1.7 per cent in 2019.
Oh my word. How would we survive?
But, most questionably, if we vote Remain, the IMF forecasts growth of 2.2 per cent next year, 2.2 per cent in 2018 and 2.1 per cent in 2019.
In other words, it assumes the EU will be all fine and dandy, and smelling of roses. Which it won't be. A technical recession in the eurozone is very likely over the next few years.
After Massie and Toynbee, this is the latest article that Leavers are finding uncomfortable There are many people I respect and admire voting leave – there are people in my family voting leave. I understand their reasons. But they must stomach the reality that a vote for leave will be taken by Farage and countless others as a vote for him, a vote for his posters, a vote for his ideas, a vote for his quiet malice, a vote for his smallness in the face of vast horrors. Is it worth it?
a vote for him, a vote for his posters, a vote for his ideas, a vote for his quiet malice, a vote for his smallness in the face of vast horrors. Is it worth it?
After Massie and Toynbee, this is the latest article that Leavers are finding uncomfortable There are many people I respect and admire voting leave – there are people in my family voting leave. I understand their reasons. But they must stomach the reality that a vote for leave will be taken by Farage and countless others as a vote for him, a vote for his posters, a vote for his ideas, a vote for his quiet malice, a vote for his smallness in the face of vast horrors. Is it worth it?
Amongst our clerical staff, this is a main topic of conversation. Not the referendum, nor the football, not even the merits of Alternative Voting. What a peculiar bunch of people.
a vote for him, a vote for his posters, a vote for his ideas, a vote for his quiet malice, a vote for his smallness in the face of vast horrors. Is it worth it?
Lol! Is that the best you can do? You've got nothing else left, have you?
If you turn this graph upside down, it shows tinfoil sales...
@ianmulheirn: IMF on impact of Brexit. Unless you're a conspiracy theorist it's time to stop saying 'Remain is exaggerating' https://t.co/qx88Ih0i0W
You don't understand much about economics, do you?
That graph is designed to make you think the economy will shrink. But it is actually a reduction in growth over a *base* scenario, which in-and-of itself has some questionable assumptions.
Under its "limited" scenario - in which Britain stayed in the EEA - the IMF forecast growth would slip from 2.2% to 1.4% next year. Significantly smaller drop than the Treasury forecast.
Ooooh. Scary.
Under its ‘adverse scenario’, economic growth will slow to 1.1 per cent this year. Then GDP shrinks by 0.8 per cent in 2017 before growing by just 0.6 per cent in 2018 and 1.7 per cent in 2019.
Oh my word. How would we survive?
But, most questionably, if we vote Remain, the IMF forecasts growth of 2.2 per cent next year, 2.2 per cent in 2018 and 2.1 per cent in 2019.
In other words, it assumes the EU will be all fine and dandy, and smelling of roses. Which it won't be. A technical recession in the eurozone is very likely over the next few years.
Vote Leave. Take Control.
So more cuts and more tax rises.
Will that be worth it? Depends on the deal we end up with.
After Massie and Toynbee, this is the latest article that Leavers are finding uncomfortable There are many people I respect and admire voting leave – there are people in my family voting leave. I understand their reasons. But they must stomach the reality that a vote for leave will be taken by Farage and countless others as a vote for him, a vote for his posters, a vote for his ideas, a vote for his quiet malice, a vote for his smallness in the face of vast horrors. Is it worth it?
An excellent article by Marina Hyde. One that every civilized Leaver should think long and hard about. Rcs1000 SeanT DavidL..........
There's nothing to think about. It's a blatant attempt by the Guardian to smear Leave with Farage in order to try and stop it from winning.
It is unarguable. She says that a victory by Leave will be seen around the world as a victory for Farage and xenophobia. It's not even in doubt. Look at the article posted by Carlotta. Even the New York Times know it.
After Massie and Toynbee, this is the latest article that Leavers are finding uncomfortable There are many people I respect and admire voting leave – there are people in my family voting leave. I understand their reasons. But they must stomach the reality that a vote for leave will be taken by Farage and countless others as a vote for him, a vote for his posters, a vote for his ideas, a vote for his quiet malice, a vote for his smallness in the face of vast horrors. Is it worth it?
An excellent article by Marina Hyde. One that every civilized Leaver should think long and hard about. Rcs1000 SeanT DavidL..........
There's nothing to think about. It's a blatant attempt by the Guardian to smear Leave with Farage in order to try and stop it from winning.
It is unarguable. She says that a victory by Leave will be seen around the world as a victory for Farage and xenophobia. It's not even in doubt. Look at the article posted by Carlotta. Even the New York Times know it.
Oh Roger. 'Even the New York Times.' Do you know anything about that paper? It led a headline the other day quoting Gordon Brown verbatim. It's way left of centre.
It's just as likely the victory for Leave will be seen as a victory for common sense, democracy and internationalism. In fact the real attention will turn to the corrupt stench that is the EU.
Re Mr Mair's charges - every journalist on Twitter last night was saying be very careful of contempt as it's now sub judice. That's in line with every other case I can recall.
And he's not being charged under the Terrorism Act either - my understanding was that using it to arrest him was a mechanism to give them longer to question him. It seems perfectly understandable to me to bring him to London for committal and probably to remand/hear the case given the nature of the offence.
Leave is absolutely not Nigel Farage's plaything, he isn't an MP and will have no power whatsoever after the referendum.
This is the uncomfortable bit. Pretending that the vote is about high ideals while knowing that millions of people are voting for Farage's explicitly xenophobic message.
Resolving what a Leave vote means is not going to be easy. If it doesn't involve major reductions or even reversal of migration flows there will be a lot of angry voters.
Quite - exactly what many moderate leaver's have admitted is not going to happen. There's a lot of mileage for Farage yet. My pro- Leave relatives also believe that Muslims are gonna be kicked out!
Amongst our clerical staff, this is a main topic of conversation. Not the referendum, nor the football, not even the merits of Alternative Voting. What a peculiar bunch of people.
They aren't members of the British Polling Council to the best of my knowledge, they have no record of polling on this topic, we can't draw a trend from their previous work. Ignore is my advice
Be a bit careful there though. They are US based. The poll was conducted for USA today.
We tend to 'ignore' polls we don't like ...
I really like the result this poll suggests, but i'm ignoring it.
As i understand it, it's all gathered from questions displayed in mobile apps.
I doubt the validity of this approach.
Interestingly, before the last election I was discussing with a consultant mate how broken the polling seemed to be. We brainstormed new ways of getting fair and fresh samples - our two main ideas were in app and in transaction questions. Various difficulties, but some pretty obvious advantages too.
That said, direction of travel on this one doesn't feel right.
If you turn this graph upside down, it shows tinfoil sales...
@ianmulheirn: IMF on impact of Brexit. Unless you're a conspiracy theorist it's time to stop saying 'Remain is exaggerating' https://t.co/qx88Ih0i0W
You don't understand much about economics, do you?
That graph is designed to make you think the economy will shrink. But it is actually a reduction in growth over a *base* scenario, which in-and-of itself has some questionable assumptions.
Under its "limited" scenario - in which Britain stayed in the EEA - the IMF forecast growth would slip from 2.2% to 1.4% next year. Significantly smaller drop than the Treasury forecast.
Ooooh. Scary.
Under its ‘adverse scenario’, economic growth will slow to 1.1 per cent this year. Then GDP shrinks by 0.8 per cent in 2017 before growing by just 0.6 per cent in 2018 and 1.7 per cent in 2019.
Oh my word. How would we survive?
But, most questionably, if we vote Remain, the IMF forecasts growth of 2.2 per cent next year, 2.2 per cent in 2018 and 2.1 per cent in 2019.
In other words, it assumes the EU will be all fine and dandy, and smelling of roses. Which it won't be. A technical recession in the eurozone is very likely over the next few years.
Vote Leave. Take Control.
So more cuts and more tax rises.
Will that be worth it? Depends on the deal we end up with.
It will involve pushing out the baseline of the austerity programme by 2-3 years, which will probably happen even if we Remain. So, no.
Actually, looks like that's right: 17 million online per month which, assuming most of them are the same people, is roughly 500,000 a day. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theguardian.com CORRECTION: that figure looks wrong. I think it's 125m unique hits a month. Wow.
Amongst our clerical staff, this is a main topic of conversation. Not the referendum, nor the football, not even the merits of Alternative Voting. What a peculiar bunch of people.
Amongst our clerical staff, this is a main topic of conversation. Not the referendum, nor the football, not even the merits of Alternative Voting. What a peculiar bunch of people.
Unfortunately Farage is the real thing. He's not just attached himself to this referendum he's the heart of it. He's been fighting for this when some Tory MPs weren't even born. If it's a Leave victory it will be and be seen as a victory for him more than anyone else.
If people can't see the reputational damage that will be done to Great Britain they should read their history books. I'm just disgusted that the Remain campain aren't shouting it from every billboard in the land. It's one of the few claims in this referendum that's actually true.
Amongst our clerical staff, this is a main topic of conversation. Not the referendum, nor the football, not even the merits of Alternative Voting. What a peculiar bunch of people.
Re Mr Mair's charges - every journalist on Twitter last night was saying be very careful of contempt as it's now sub judice. That's in line with every other case I can recall.
And he's not being charged under the Terrorism Act either - my understanding was that using it to arrest him was a mechanism to give them longer to question him. It seems perfectly understandable to me to bring him to London for committal and probably to remand/hear the case given the nature of the offence.
The desperation of some to try and erase any hint that there may be a link between nasty xenophobic and racist features of the hangers on to Leave Campaign and subsequent events is very revealing.
"Somehow, over the last half-century, Western elites managed to convince themselves that nationalism was not real. Perhaps it had been real in the past, like cholera and telegraph machines, but now that we were smarter and more modern, it would be forgotten in the due course of time as better ideas supplanted it.
That now seems hopelessly naive. People do care more about people who are like them -- who speak their language, eat their food, share their customs and values. And when elites try to ignore those sentiments -- or banish them by declaring that they are simply racist -- this doesn’t make the sentiments go away. It makes the non-elites suspect the elites of disloyalty. For though elites may find something vaguely horrifying about saying that you care more about people who are like you than you do about people who are culturally or geographically further away, the rest of the population is outraged by the never-stated corollary: that the elites running things feel no greater moral obligation to their fellow countrymen than they do to some random stranger in another country. And perhaps we can argue that this is the morally correct way to feel -- but if it is truly the case, you can see why ordinary folks would be suspicious about allowing the elites to continue to exercise great power over their lives.
It’s therefore not entirely surprising that people are reacting strongly against the EU
Amongst our clerical staff, this is a main topic of conversation. Not the referendum, nor the football, not even the merits of Alternative Voting. What a peculiar bunch of people.
Is Miss GB meant to remain celibate, then?
I have to confess that I follow neither "Love Island" nor "Miss GB" closely enough to venture an opinion. It is the topic of conversation in the coffee room at work.
Re Mr Mair's charges - every journalist on Twitter last night was saying be very careful of contempt as it's now sub judice. That's in line with every other case I can recall.
And he's not being charged under the Terrorism Act either - my understanding was that using it to arrest him was a mechanism to give them longer to question him. It seems perfectly understandable to me to bring him to London for committal and probably to remand/hear the case given the nature of the offence.
The desperation of some to try and erase any hint that there may be a link between nasty xenophobic and racist features of the hangers on to Leave Campaign and subsequent events is very revealing.
Re Mr Mair's charges - every journalist on Twitter last night was saying be very careful of contempt as it's now sub judice. That's in line with every other case I can recall.
And he's not being charged under the Terrorism Act either - my understanding was that using it to arrest him was a mechanism to give them longer to question him. It seems perfectly understandable to me to bring him to London for committal and probably to remand/hear the case given the nature of the offence.
The desperation of some to try and erase any hint that there may be a link between nasty xenophobic and racist features of the hangers on to Leave Campaign and subsequent events is very revealing.
Revealing of the desperation of small l liberals as the article l refer to below shows.
"Somehow, over the last half-century, Western elites managed to convince themselves that nationalism was not real. Perhaps it had been real in the past, like cholera and telegraph machines, but now that we were smarter and more modern, it would be forgotten in the due course of time as better ideas supplanted it.
That now seems hopelessly naive. People do care more about people who are like them -- who speak their language, eat their food, share their customs and values. And when elites try to ignore those sentiments -- or banish them by declaring that they are simply racist -- this doesn’t make the sentiments go away. It makes the non-elites suspect the elites of disloyalty. For though elites may find something vaguely horrifying about saying that you care more about people who are like you than you do about people who are culturally or geographically further away, the rest of the population is outraged by the never-stated corollary: that the elites running things feel no greater moral obligation to their fellow countrymen than they do to some random stranger in another country. And perhaps we can argue that this is the morally correct way to feel -- but if it is truly the case, you can see why ordinary folks would be suspicious about allowing the elites to continue to exercise great power over their lives.
It’s therefore not entirely surprising that people are reacting strongly against the EU
Hmmm - so what do we do about those currently here who are 'different'? Your logic suggests something needs to be done.
Looking at that Mail Online link it's really not difficult to see why it's getting a gobsmacking 225 million unique browser hits a month. It's very slick, very saucy, very gossipy. Everything today's world loves.
Re Mr Mair's charges - every journalist on Twitter last night was saying be very careful of contempt as it's now sub judice. That's in line with every other case I can recall.
And he's not being charged under the Terrorism Act either - my understanding was that using it to arrest him was a mechanism to give them longer to question him. It seems perfectly understandable to me to bring him to London for committal and probably to remand/hear the case given the nature of the offence.
The desperation of some to try and erase any hint that there may be a link between nasty xenophobic and racist features of the hangers on to Leave Campaign and subsequent events is very revealing.
You are trying to pin the murder on the Leave campaign.
Re Mr Mair's charges - every journalist on Twitter last night was saying be very careful of contempt as it's now sub judice. That's in line with every other case I can recall.
And he's not being charged under the Terrorism Act either - my understanding was that using it to arrest him was a mechanism to give them longer to question him. It seems perfectly understandable to me to bring him to London for committal and probably to remand/hear the case given the nature of the offence.
The desperation of some to try and erase any hint that there may be a link between nasty xenophobic and racist features of the hangers on to Leave Campaign and subsequent events is very revealing.
Revealing of the desperation of small l liberals as the article l refer to below shows.
Amongst our clerical staff, this is a main topic of conversation. Not the referendum, nor the football, not even the merits of Alternative Voting. What a peculiar bunch of people.
Is Miss GB meant to remain celibate, then?
I have to confess that I follow neither "Love Island" nor "Miss GB" closely enough to venture an opinion. It is the topic of conversation in the coffee room at work.
Amongst our clerical staff, this is a main topic of conversation. Not the referendum, nor the football, not even the merits of Alternative Voting. What a peculiar bunch of people.
Is Miss GB meant to remain celibate, then?
I have to confess that I follow neither "Love Island" nor "Miss GB" closely enough to venture an opinion. It is the topic of conversation in the coffee room at work.
I guess it's not bad to have read through that article and not recognised a single name then? Whatever happened to Miss GB opening the county fair and cheering on our sports teams?
"Somehow, over the last half-century, Western elites managed to convince themselves that nationalism was not real. Perhaps it had been real in the past, like cholera and telegraph machines, but now that we were smarter and more modern, it would be forgotten in the due course of time as better ideas supplanted it.
That now seems hopelessly naive. People do care more about people who are like them -- who speak their language, eat their food, share their customs and values. And when elites try to ignore those sentiments -- or banish them by declaring that they are simply racist -- this doesn’t make the sentiments go away. It makes the non-elites suspect the elites of disloyalty. For though elites may find something vaguely horrifying about saying that you care more about people who are like you than you do about people who are culturally or geographically further away, the rest of the population is outraged by the never-stated corollary: that the elites running things feel no greater moral obligation to their fellow countrymen than they do to some random stranger in another country. And perhaps we can argue that this is the morally correct way to feel -- but if it is truly the case, you can see why ordinary folks would be suspicious about allowing the elites to continue to exercise great power over their lives.
It’s therefore not entirely surprising that people are reacting strongly against the EU
Hmmm - so what do we do about those currently here who are 'different'? Your logic suggests something needs to be done.
Different culturally or ethnically? I think people care about culture and these days pretty much don't give a shit about the colour of a man's skin. I, for example, think TSE is a top bloke but that his fundamentalist muslim doppelganger is a %$£" that we don't want here. I'm not racist (my wife is Chinese) but I am culturalist.
Re Mr Mair's charges - every journalist on Twitter last night was saying be very careful of contempt as it's now sub judice. That's in line with every other case I can recall.
And he's not being charged under the Terrorism Act either - my understanding was that using it to arrest him was a mechanism to give them longer to question him. It seems perfectly understandable to me to bring him to London for committal and probably to remand/hear the case given the nature of the offence.
The desperation of some to try and erase any hint that there may be a link between nasty xenophobic and racist features of the hangers on to Leave Campaign and subsequent events is very revealing.
Revealing of the desperation of small l liberals as the article l refer to below shows.
Lol me a liberal - never voted anything but Tory.
It's certainly come to something when some Conservatives are so desperate to Remain in the EU that they're trying to argue that pro-Brexit Conservatives have blood on their hands.
Amongst our clerical staff, this is a main topic of conversation. Not the referendum, nor the football, not even the merits of Alternative Voting. What a peculiar bunch of people.
After Massie and Toynbee, this is the latest article that Leavers are finding uncomfortable
I can't imagine many Leavers reading the Guardian
Not many buy a copy of the guardian. Under 200,000.
Millions read it online. Including those the article is aimed at. But basically you're right - it won't change anything.
I'm not sure. This is the time people will start looking ahead to next Friday. If people are going to start making mental pictures this is the time 'Farage's Britain' will come into focus
After Massie and Toynbee, this is the latest article that Leavers are finding uncomfortable There are many people I respect and admire voting leave – there are people in my family voting leave. I understand their reasons. But they must stomach the reality that a vote for leave will be taken by Farage and countless others as a vote for him, a vote for his posters, a vote for his ideas, a vote for his quiet malice, a vote for his smallness in the face of vast horrors. Is it worth it?
An excellent article by Marina Hyde. One that every civilized Leaver should think long and hard about. Rcs1000 SeanT DavidL..........
There's nothing to think about. It's a blatant attempt by the Guardian to smear Leave with Farage in order to try and stop it from winning.
It is unarguable. She says that a victory by Leave will be seen around the world as a victory for Farage and xenophobia. It's not even in doubt. Look at the article posted by Carlotta. Even the New York Times know it.
Oh Roger. 'Even the New York Times.' Do you know anything about that paper? It led a headline the other day quoting Gordon Brown verbatim. It's way left of centre.
It's just as likely the victory for Leave will be seen as a victory for common sense, democracy and internationalism. In fact the real attention will turn to the corrupt stench that is the EU.
This is the EU's FIFA mom.
Read any Spanish newspaper of any political persuasion - as I did for 10 days recently - and Farage was front and centre; along with bemusement that Boris and co should be telling lies about Turkey being about to join the EU. If Spain is representative of other member states, then a Leave vote is being seen almost entirely as one about being opposed to immigration and immigrants. To be fair, that's not too far from the truth.
It's the incendiary language and the images and the lies that seem to fascinate.
Re Mr Mair's charges - every journalist on Twitter last night was saying be very careful of contempt as it's now sub judice. That's in line with every other case I can recall.
And he's not being charged under the Terrorism Act either - my understanding was that using it to arrest him was a mechanism to give them longer to question him. It seems perfectly understandable to me to bring him to London for committal and probably to remand/hear the case given the nature of the offence.
The desperation of some to try and erase any hint that there may be a link between nasty xenophobic and racist features of the hangers on to Leave Campaign and subsequent events is very revealing.
You are trying to pin the murder on the Leave campaign.
Comments
You're being rather condescending though? You might not use a mobile but most over 65's I know certainly do. Plenty also use iPads.
I'm not defending this poll: just suggesting that whilst exercising caution, it probably shouldn't be airily dismissed.
And look how well the British Polling Council firms performed in GE 2015
Leave 58%
Remain 41%
Spoilt 1%
And I got GE2015 spot on, even some outlandish constituency predictions at great odds.
Not that past performance is a guarantee of anything ...
If that's true, and I find it quite hard to believe, there's one possible explanation which tallies with their findings and some anecdotes I've received. It's this:
Remain voters have been switched off politics by what happened whereas it won't make most Leave voters alter their vote. So a significant number of Remainers went into the Don't Know camp. If that's true I think it's likely to be temporary and they would probably be expected to return come Thursday.
Well, I don't know, but it's a working theory.
We need to see more polls, for sure.
This morning's TV paper reviews are going to be very interesting to watch, with them unable to talk about any of the front pages!
I imagine the police (and the PB mod police) will be on the look out for people talking too much about the case, which is now 'sub judice'.
He is further charged with possession of a firearm with intent and possession of an offensive weapon, the force said.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-36565801
No (direct) news on a terrorism charge - but then why appear at Westminster?
I don't doubt the media people who attempted to do it are cynical enough.
I wouldn't be surprised if the result on Friday was 60:40 - one way or the other - we already know what theories will be trotted out to explain either result. Nobody knows.
It'll be transferred to Crown Court of course. Then it'll be interesting to see if that's Westminster or the Central Criminal Court (Old Bailey).
Edit: silly me. There isn't a Crown Court at Westminster. So it will probably go to either Southwark or the Old Bailey. That's if he's not found to be insane.
Westminster Magistrate's Court is where Terrorism cases for E&W are heard.
You're reading the hermeneutic of suspicion where there is none Carlotta. She was a member of Parliament killed whilst doing her job. Quite right the first hearing is at Westminster.
On what planet are cases transferred to the jurisdiction of a victim's place of work?
(And Westminster is not the only place to hear terrorism related offences. Southwark and the Central Criminal Court do. Westminster will not try a murder case as it's magistrate level.)
Right, I'm bowing out of this. The hermeneutic of suspicion is running amok.
Either way, today's appearance will be the usual two minutes, where the suspect confirms his name and is remanded in custody to appear later at the Crown Court.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/academy/journalism/article/art20130702112133630
I'd expect the TV news to discuss only the victim today, with any discussion relating to the accused being strictly factual (name, age, address etc) rather than speculation or hearsay.
IANAL but this is the usual pattern in recent high profile cases, the last murder of such interest was probably that of Lee Rigby three years ago
There are many people I respect and admire voting leave – there are people in my family voting leave. I understand their reasons. But they must stomach the reality that a vote for leave will be taken by Farage and countless others as a vote for him, a vote for his posters, a vote for his ideas, a vote for his quiet malice, a vote for his smallness in the face of vast horrors. Is it worth it?
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/17/united-kingdom-ukip-nigel-farage-leavers
Family Courts are particularly strict.
I too would have expected Leeds Magistrate's Court.
@ianmulheirn: IMF on impact of Brexit. Unless you're a conspiracy theorist it's time to stop saying 'Remain is exaggerating' https://t.co/qx88Ih0i0W
The case will be tried at either Southwark or the Old Bailey: I would imagine the latter. Cases of national importance are transferred there and it's right and proper. This is a case of gravitas and national significance.
By the way, all serious crimes go through the NCA. The CPS will also have had a role.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/18/world/europe/britain-brexit-european-union-immigration.html
But having said that, how many undecideds are reading the Guardian?
In fact, he's finished.
And Farage will be front and centre.
That graph is designed to make you think the economy will shrink. But it is actually a reduction in growth over a *base* scenario, which in-and-of itself has some questionable assumptions.
Under its "limited" scenario - in which Britain stayed in the EEA - the IMF forecast growth would slip from 2.2% to 1.4% next year. Significantly smaller drop than the Treasury forecast.
Ooooh. Scary.
Under its ‘adverse scenario’, economic growth will slow to 1.1 per cent this year. Then GDP shrinks by 0.8 per cent in 2017 before growing by just 0.6 per cent in 2018 and 1.7 per cent in 2019.
Oh my word. How would we survive?
But, most questionably, if we vote Remain, the IMF forecasts growth of 2.2 per cent next year, 2.2 per cent in 2018 and 2.1 per cent in 2019.
In other words, it assumes the EU will be all fine and dandy, and smelling of roses. Which it won't be. A technical recession in the eurozone is very likely over the next few years.
Vote Leave. Take Control.
I read on here more posts smearing Vote LEAVE as racists.... What bilge.
What was Kate Hoey doing with him on the Thames?
a vote for him, a vote for his posters, a vote for his ideas, a vote for his quiet malice, a vote for his smallness in the face of vast horrors. Is it worth it?
http://www.theguardian.com/media/2016/jun/17/miss-great-britain-title-sex-itv2-love-island-zara-holland-alex-bowen
Amongst our clerical staff, this is a main topic of conversation. Not the referendum, nor the football, not even the merits of Alternative Voting. What a peculiar bunch of people.
*smiles self-satisfyingly*
Will that be worth it? Depends on the deal we end up with.
Yup, job done.
It's just as likely the victory for Leave will be seen as a victory for common sense, democracy and internationalism. In fact the real attention will turn to the corrupt stench that is the EU.
This is the EU's FIFA moment.
I can see why
Sorry, you just are.
And he's not being charged under the Terrorism Act either - my understanding was that using it to arrest him was a mechanism to give them longer to question him. It seems perfectly understandable to me to bring him to London for committal and probably to remand/hear the case given the nature of the offence.
That said, direction of travel on this one doesn't feel right.
I'm sticking with 53/47 to Leave.
Is it worth it?
For self-governance, absolutely yes.
I appreciate others might calculate differently.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theguardian.com
CORRECTION: that figure looks wrong. I think it's 125m unique hits a month. Wow.
The Mail online is the astonishing one with 225m unique views a month and nearly 15 million a day.
http://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/feb/20/mail-online-gains-17m-unique-browsers-as-newspaper-sites-bounce-back
Mind you, we should probably remember that lots of these are overseas.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3647690/Set-Britain-free-Unsure-vote-brilliantly-incisive-verdict-Spectator-nation-s-foremost-political-magazine-help.html
"The Guardian website is again the most widely read newspaper site in the UK according to new figures from the National Readership Survey (NRS), recording just under 8 million web-only readers in June 2014."
Apparently the Telegraph was 2nd with the Mail dropping to third.
https://www.journalism.co.uk/news/report-guardian-maintains-lead-with-most-monthly-web-only-uk-readers/s2/a562273/
If people can't see the reputational damage that will be done to Great Britain they should read their history books. I'm just disgusted that the Remain campain aren't shouting it from every billboard in the land. It's one of the few claims in this referendum that's actually true.
"Somehow, over the last half-century, Western elites managed to convince themselves that nationalism was not real. Perhaps it had been real in the past, like cholera and telegraph machines, but now that we were smarter and more modern, it would be forgotten in the due course of time as better ideas supplanted it.
That now seems hopelessly naive. People do care more about people who are like them -- who speak their language, eat their food, share their customs and values. And when elites try to ignore those sentiments -- or banish them by declaring that they are simply racist -- this doesn’t make the sentiments go away. It makes the non-elites suspect the elites of disloyalty. For though elites may find something vaguely horrifying about saying that you care more about people who are like you than you do about people who are culturally or geographically further away, the rest of the population is outraged by the never-stated corollary: that the elites running things feel no greater moral obligation to their fellow countrymen than they do to some random stranger in another country. And perhaps we can argue that this is the morally correct way to feel -- but if it is truly the case, you can see why ordinary folks would be suspicious about allowing the elites to continue to exercise great power over their lives.
It’s therefore not entirely surprising that people are reacting strongly against the EU
That's what's truly disgusting.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-3647103/Look-away-Miss-GB-bosses-Zara-Holland-poses-nude-series-saucy-snaps-s-stripped-title-having-sex-Love-Island.html
https://mobile.twitter.com/ITVAllegra/status/743926467185250308
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/18/world/europe/britain-brexit-european-union-immigration.html
It's the incendiary language and the images and the lies that seem to fascinate.
https://www.theguardian.com/money/blog/2016/jun/18/eu-vote-brexit-working-people-rents-wages?CMP=share_btn_tw