How many MPs would vote down an Osborne confidence motion, in this parallel universe where he wouldn't already have been sacked...
What is the mechanism the Brexiteers have for sacking Osborne, other than a confidence motion in the Government?
Letters to the 1922 Committee, vote of No Confidence in Cameron (not the government). Iain Duncan Smith was removed as leader via this mechanism, it took one day to do it.
With 180 MPs supporting remain in the party I spot a flaw. Not to mention the many prominent leaders who want him to stay.
Excuse me - "Parliament is sovereign". It's good to get that acknowledgement from a leaver given that the fact Parliament is not sovereign has been a central Leave argument, but anyway.
I think you would find there would be a great deal of legal argument around Parliament being bound by Treaty obligations its predecessors had solemnly entered into.
In any case, on a practical level, to even get things started Parliament would need to approve it. That would not happen before a general election.
The Lord Denning:
If the time should come when our Parliament deliberately passes an Act with the intention of repudiating the Treaty or any provision in it or intentionally of acting inconsistently with it and says so in express terms then I should have thought that it would be the duty of our courts to follow the statute of our Parliament.
Parliament is sovereign, it can repeal the act, but its an all or nothing affair, while the act stands parliament accepts the supremacy of the ECJ and European Law, and all the limitations that implies. It is true to say it could repeal the act and disapply everything, but there is no middle position unless it is negotiated as a fresh arrangement. If for example parliament decided in it's wisdom that it didn't want freedom of movement anymore, and attempted to pass a law in that regard, the courts would strike it down, because the ECA(1972) instructs them that they should consider the ECJ rulings and EU Law, if the ECA(1972) was repealed, they would no longer take those into consideration. But you know all this, you are just throwing rocks today, rather like ScottPaste does all the time.
Lord Denning had a view. Others will have different views. There would be an argument and the courts would decide.
It is a fact that a central Leave argument is that we do not have sovereignty. As you acknowledge, we do.
Removal of Cameron as leader followed by sacking of Osborne.
Next....
If the Brexiteers launch a coup (which is what you are proposing) I am not sure they would avoid a confidence vote.
It may be called by someone else (the SNP would be favourite) and I am not convinced a Tory majority would vote against it
Great - we'll have a general election. With more than half of the voters just having voted Leave, we'll (by which I mean those of us in the Tory party who don't want a blackmail budget) will likely win a majority.
How many MPs would vote down an Osborne confidence motion, in this parallel universe where he wouldn't already have been sacked...
What is the mechanism the Brexiteers have for sacking Osborne, other than a confidence motion in the Government?
Please can you explain why this emergency budget has only been mentioned a week before the vote when the Government has had years to plan for what would happen post Brexit?
@thhamilton: REMAIN/LEAVE: If the UK leaves the EU, our economy will be transformed. REMAIN: On that basis, we'll need a new Budget. LEAVE: Noooooo!
Well, quite...
You are full of bullshit. The Leavers are objecting to Osborne's specific lies about what he would do. Even if there needed to be a new budget, it would not be THIS budget.
Just heard a Canadian who attended two universities in Europe put a better argument for remaining in the EU than any I've heard from politicians in the last six weeks.
She said she's been to two European Universities and being able to choose where to work in an extraordinary community of twenty eight nations all with their own unique culture and language and all promotiing the values of peace tolerance and togetherness which has made her feel part of a community of outward looking young people which doesn't exist anywhere else in the world.
When you hear someone like that this tacky xenophobia and money grubbing that's surrounding this debate makes you want to weep.
Thing is Roge, that might appeal to you and tyson's vibrant Italian bar goers, but it doesn't really appeal to those who perceive negative impact on their lives by the introduction of mass Eastern European immigration.
Exactly, I don't imagine it cuts much ice on a council estate in sheffield. This vote was always going to be won and lost by working class labour voters in the midlands and north.
My wife (52) and middle son (22) both got targeted leaflets from Remain yesterday. My other son (25) and me (52) got nothing. We were very jealous. They were the first referendum leaflets of any kind to come through the letter box. In the real world, this is not an all-encompassing, all-consuming campaign. I have not seen anything of this £9 million government propaganda publication. Does it really exist?
My mother received one and opined that it was conspicuously biased and what she really wanted was a balanced view of the pros and cons so she could make her mind up. After a couple of months of Project Bullshit on the TV she has made her mind up for Leave. My wife, a member of the "Ethnics 4 Leave" persuasion used hers for firelighters or something
This referendum is beginning to remind me of "The Wind in the Willows" - the "Animal Farm" for today.
"Toad now hears from Rat that Toad Hall has been taken over by weasels and stoats from the Wild Wood."
How double-dare they? Don't they know their station in life? It will cause a drop in GDP!
In a contradictory finding, three in five Brits – 61% – say that they would be willing to accept a short term economic slowdown in order to see EU immigration controls tightened, which Brexit would allow. But a significant majority of more than two thirds – 68% – at the same time insist they are not willing to lose any cash at all personally to reduce the number of migrants coming in from Europe
Just heard a Canadian who attended two universities in Europe put a better argument for remaining in the EU than any I've heard from politicians in the last six weeks.
She said she's been to two European Universities and being able to choose where to work in an extraordinary community of twenty eight nations all with their own unique culture and language and all promotiing the values of peace tolerance and togetherness which has made her feel part of a community of outward looking young people which doesn't exist anywhere else in the world.
When you hear someone like that and contrast it with the tacky xenophobia and money grubbing that's surrounding this debate it makes you want to weep. Literally.
I've got a PhD from a top university and I can spot that is elitest wankery that effects a tiny proportion of the population. How does being able to live in 28 different country tries help a single mum on the waiting list for council housing?
My wife (52) and middle son (22) both got targeted leaflets from Remain yesterday. My other son (25) and me (52) got nothing. We were very jealous. They were the first referendum leaflets of any kind to come through the letter box. In the real world, this is not an all-encompassing, all-consuming campaign. I have not seen anything of this £9 million government propaganda publication. Does it really exist?
I can send you a remain leaflet if you really feel the need for one, it has Martin Lewis' partial quote that he didn't give them permission to use on it.
How many MPs would vote down an Osborne confidence motion, in this parallel universe where he wouldn't already have been sacked...
What is the mechanism the Brexiteers have for sacking Osborne, other than a confidence motion in the Government?
Letters to the 1922 Committee, vote of No Confidence in Cameron (not the government). Iain Duncan Smith was removed as leader via this mechanism, it took one day to do it.
With 180 MPs supporting remain in the party I spot a flaw. Not to mention the many prominent leaders who want him to stay.
180 MPs support remain BEFORE the referendum.
How many support it afterwards will be close to zero.
It is a fact that a central Leave argument is that we do not have sovereignty. As you acknowledge, we do.
Good luck trying that tedious bit of hairsplitting on the doorstep, the voter will say fine, lets see you throw out the EU criminals then, oh wait, you can't because of free movement, and you can't change that short of leaving the EU.
I think Remain might still scrape home, but only by a small margin. If they do, or if they lose, then rather than blaming nasty Farage, or nasty Gove, or racist voters, or the tabloids, they need to ask themselves where did they go wrong. A year ago, Remain had huge poll leads. What is about their arguments, and/or the EU, that has turned people against them?
A good post which actually applies to both sides. The country is divided - and both need to accept that in terms of what happens next.
I am going to be an agent at next weeks count and i will be interested in making sure the ballot boxes are empty when they first go to the polling stations.
I think Remain might still scrape home, but only by a small margin. If they do, or if they lose, then rather than blaming nasty Farage, or nasty Gove, or racist voters, or the tabloids, they need to ask themselves where did they go wrong. A year ago, Remain had huge poll leads. What is about their arguments, and/or the EU, that has turned people against them?
A win's a win. I'd take 50%+1 and several bottles of France's finest champagne, from our cherished European partners.
@thhamilton: REMAIN/LEAVE: If the UK leaves the EU, our economy will be transformed. REMAIN: On that basis, we'll need a new Budget. LEAVE: Noooooo!
Well, quite...
What Leave is effectively saying is that we should stick with the budget even though this was designed to implement policies predicated on high levels of EU immigration. Can anyone explain how that makes sense?
Vote Leave for 2p on income tax. Doorstep line from here on in?
Dangerous. If Leave wins, Osborne and his 2p are history. If Remain wins, Osborne will stay in place and voters now know he might consider such action if another problem comes along.
Removal of Cameron as leader followed by sacking of Osborne.
Next....
If the Brexiteers launch a coup (which is what you are proposing) I am not sure they would avoid a confidence vote.
It may be called by someone else (the SNP would be favourite) and I am not convinced a Tory majority would vote against it
Great - we'll have a general election. With more than half of the voters just having voted Leave, we'll (by which I mean those of us in the Tory party who don't want a blackmail budget) will likely win a majority.
Just heard a Canadian who attended two universities in Europe put a better argument for remaining in the EU than any I've heard from politicians in the last six weeks.
She said she's been to two European Universities and being able to choose where to work in an extraordinary community of twenty eight nations all with their own unique culture and language and all promotiing the values of peace tolerance and togetherness which has made her feel part of a community of outward looking young people which doesn't exist anywhere else in the world.
When you hear someone like that and contrast it with the tacky xenophobia and money grubbing that's surrounding this debate it makes you want to weep. Literally.
I've got a PhD from a top university and I can spot that is elitest wankery that effects a tiny proportion of the population. How does being able to live in 28 different country tries help a single mum on the waiting list for council housing?
By creating the environment for world class research that ultimately provides the population with effective drugs to treat chronic illness.
It is a fact that a central Leave argument is that we do not have sovereignty. As you acknowledge, we do.
Good luck trying that tedious bit of hairsplitting on the doorstep, the voter will say fine, lets see you throw out the EU criminals then, oh wait, you can't because of free movement, and you can't change that short of leaving the EU.
I am not trying it on the doorstep, I am arguing with you. Although I am not. We both agree that Parliament is sovereign.
Just heard a Canadian who attended two universities in Europe put a better argument for remaining in the EU than any I've heard from politicians in the last six weeks.
She said she's been to two European Universities and being able to choose where to work in an extraordinary community of twenty eight nations all with their own unique culture and language and all promotiing the values of peace tolerance and togetherness which has made her feel part of a community of outward looking young people which doesn't exist anywhere else in the world.
When you hear someone like that this tacky xenophobia and money grubbing that's surrounding this debate makes you want to weep.
Is she proposing that the American President can write Canadian laws? No? Oh so maybe its not that good an idea.
"When a wise man points to the moon only a fool looks at his finger"
She's not pointing at the moon though. We could arrange free movement if we want it while being independently sovereign. EG the Trans-Tasman Travel Arrangement provides for the free movement between Australia and New Zealand. New Zealand does not have its laws written by Australians though.
My wife (52) and middle son (22) both got targeted leaflets from Remain yesterday. My other son (25) and me (52) got nothing. We were very jealous. They were the first referendum leaflets of any kind to come through the letter box. In the real world, this is not an all-encompassing, all-consuming campaign. I have not seen anything of this £9 million government propaganda publication. Does it really exist?
We've had the government publication plus numerous leaflets, mostly from Leave, but my wife received one yesterday along the lines of 'Don't Vote Farage' from Remain. I didn't receive one - perhaps they are aiming it at females?
I've seen a fair few banners/sidebar ads and I've also seen video ads on Youtube. These have mostly been Leave.
I think Remain might still scrape home, but only by a small margin. If they do, or if they lose, then rather than blaming nasty Farage, or nasty Gove, or racist voters, or the tabloids, they need to ask themselves where did they go wrong. A year ago, Remain had huge poll leads. What is about their arguments, and/or the EU, that has turned people against them?
A win's a win. I'd take 50%+1 and several bottles of France's finest champagne, from our cherished European partners.
Mr. Observer, there is a third way (ahem): we have annual Budgets. Just have them take account of the situation without Cameron and Osborne raising income tax, cutting pensions and protecting foreign aid.
Leave should say that they foresee a prosperous future outside the EU, but if a cut were necessary it'd be to foreign aid.
How many MPs would vote down an Osborne confidence motion, in this parallel universe where he wouldn't already have been sacked...
What is the mechanism the Brexiteers have for sacking Osborne, other than a confidence motion in the Government?
Letters to the 1922 Committee, vote of No Confidence in Cameron (not the government). Iain Duncan Smith was removed as leader via this mechanism, it took one day to do it.
With 180 MPs supporting remain in the party I spot a flaw. Not to mention the many prominent leaders who want him to stay.
180 MPs support remain BEFORE the referendum.
How many support it afterwards will be close to zero.
I think Remain might still scrape home, but only by a small margin. If they do, or if they lose, then rather than blaming nasty Farage, or nasty Gove, or racist voters, or the tabloids, they need to ask themselves where did they go wrong. A year ago, Remain had huge poll leads. What is about their arguments, and/or the EU, that has turned people against them?
A win's a win. I'd take 50%+1 and several bottles of France's finest champagne, from our cherished European partners.
You might get to finish your first glass of bubbly before
How many MPs would vote down an Osborne confidence motion, in this parallel universe where he wouldn't already have been sacked...
What is the mechanism the Brexiteers have for sacking Osborne, other than a confidence motion in the Government?
Letters to the 1922 Committee, vote of No Confidence in Cameron (not the government). Iain Duncan Smith was removed as leader via this mechanism, it took one day to do it.
With 180 MPs supporting remain in the party I spot a flaw. Not to mention the many prominent leaders who want him to stay.
180 MPs support remain BEFORE the referendum.
How many support it afterwards will be close to zero.
Cameron would win a confidence vote comfortably.
Not if he was trying to enforce Osborne's blackmail budget he wouldn't.
I'd start with the highest Yes to AV areas then adjust for skittishness and demographics. My gut instinct would be to look for the inner London Borough with the best combination of Bohemia AND pockets of higher income voters. Though that said is Ladbrokes being mischievous with that list ? Given the regional polling has Northern Ireland as the most pro Remain area and the Border issue why have they listed no border councils with large nationalist communities I wonder ?!
That was meant to say " Scottishness " My predictive text obviously wants to provoke the CyberNats.
Welcome (back?) YellowSubmarine - they only require the slightest provocation - beware incoming Turnips.....
Now they are even programming London phones and computers predictive text to be anti Scottish.
@thhamilton: REMAIN/LEAVE: If the UK leaves the EU, our economy will be transformed. REMAIN: On that basis, we'll need a new Budget. LEAVE: Noooooo!
Well, quite...
What Leave is effectively saying is that we should stick with the budget even though this was designed to implement policies predicated on high levels of EU immigration. Can anyone explain how that makes sense?
I can explain it.
Don't believe a word Osborne says, because we wouldn't have so vindictive a chancellor if we vote Leave.
More seriously, yes we'll need a new budget, no it won't slash the NHS, no it won't put up basic income tax. There simple wouldn't be the votes for it, and it would likely lead to street protests.
"Writing in The Times tomorrow, Osborne says this is all a fair representation of what would be needed to plug the black hole that Brexit would create. Three flaws with this argument…
If Brits vote for Brexit, it will take minimum two years – probably five years. So why raise taxes in an emergency budget now? Unless you’re trying to scare voters, that is...
Osborne has been nursing a black hole since he stepped into the job. Why the sudden urgency to fill a Brexit one? As he knows better than anyone else, there’s an alternative to tough fiscal decisions: more debt. That’s what you do should you encounter a financial shock: borrow and stimulate. Cut taxes, increase spending. More debt is the option he has gone for time and time again, whenever he encounters difficulty. So what on earth makes us think he would not take that option this time? Especially given that the worldwide gilt slump has just pushed government borrowing costs to the floor.
If Britain votes for Brexit than George Osborne won’t be giving any more Budgets. He’ll be on the backbenchers [sic], writing his memoirs – or (more likely) asking Rupert Harrison for a job."
Vote Leave for 2p on income tax. Doorstep line from here on in?
Dangerous. If Leave wins, Osborne and his 2p are history. If Remain wins, Osborne will stay in place and voters now know he might consider such action if another problem comes along.
Threatening the NHS budget is beyond stupid - it's taken years to get some trust back on this issue, and Osborne's just dumped the whole extra spending/ring fencing in one last gasp.
I'd be incensed if I cared that much about the Tories anymore.
I think Remain might still scrape home, but only by a small margin. If they do, or if they lose, then rather than blaming nasty Farage, or nasty Gove, or racist voters, or the tabloids, they need to ask themselves where did they go wrong. A year ago, Remain had huge poll leads. What is about their arguments, and/or the EU, that has turned people against them?
I'm wondering if a lasting legacy of this referendum will be damage to all mainstream political parties. Where the country has been looking for clear, truthful discussion on the merits of each side, we've been given an avalanche of political games and blatant lies.
I'm disgusted by the latest ploy by Osborne and although a lifelong Tory supporter find my dislike of Cameron and Osborne increasing every day.
Where will I place my vote - if at all - in the future?
Ha, ha - welcome to my world.
Whatever happens next Thursday as a country we face years of uncertainty. A Tory party that has lost all sense of unity, an unelectable Labour party and a phalanx of nationalists who are hamstring by the economic impossibility of independence. Good old FPTP.
We are no more hamstrung than the economics of UK leaving EU, it is just a load of boll**ks.
We differ on how to vote on this referendum, but it's not a right or wrong argument for me. I've waited 41 years to get revenge on the politicians who wilfully lied to me then. And to make it, worse, tried to rewrite history by claiming they'd always meant something different.
Why trust any politician then, you may ask. I trust very few, and none totally. But some are just taking the piss.
I'd rather have British politicians I know and distrust, rather than foreign ones with all their foreign ways. And I'm on the side of the weasels and stoats, who always get a bad press.
Will LEAVE accept a narrow victory for REMAIN which they will say - with some justice - is based on Scpottsh, London and non-white votes? Well, anyone who reads the comments of LEAVERS on here knows the answer to that already.
As for "that's how it works" - well, didn't King Charles I say much the same to the House of Commons in 1642? And we know what happened later...
So a close Remain win will lead to HM the Queen getting her head lopped off???
My wife (52) and middle son (22) both got targeted leaflets from Remain yesterday. My other son (25) and me (52) got nothing. We were very jealous. They were the first referendum leaflets of any kind to come through the letter box. In the real world, this is not an all-encompassing, all-consuming campaign. I have not seen anything of this £9 million government propaganda publication. Does it really exist?
Is any campaign ever all consuming, even a general election? So far this referendum I have had leaflets from Remain and Leave and the government publication and seen posters for both and last weekend had the Vote Leave battle bus in the High Street complete with IDS and Carswell and I have to say that is more activity than I personally saw in May 2015. Unless you are an activist most voters go through a campaign without being all consumed by the election and getting on with their lives, just with a few more interruptions than usual
The Tories recently voted in favour of a budget that needs high levels of EU immigration in order to stand a chance of working.
If we vote for Brexit we are rejecting a basic tenet of the budget.
Therefore, we need a new budget. One that reflects the new reality, which is that if we are to cut EU immigration significantly and also hit government deficit reduction targets - which all Tories are enthusiastically signed up to - we will need to raise taxes and cut public spending further.
At the risk of stating the obvious the second most effective ploy of Leave has been to discuss all the nice things we can get with the £350m a week (ahem). It is therefore typically clever tactics by Osborne to make it clear that in his opinion there will be significantly less money to go around after Brexit not more.
Will anyone believe him? I'm really not sure. The previous "forecasts" of the Treasury were so overdone (adding up years of MoE differences from a model based on entirely negative assumptions to get a largish figure) and ridiculed that I think this effort might be less successful than it might have been. But if Osborne can get the debate off immigration and back on to the economic effects he will do the Remain campaign some good. For all the vitriol poured on him on here of late he is a brilliant political operator who should not be underestimated.
On topic the most likely winner in my view is indeed Edinburgh but at those odds this is a mugs bet.
Any Questions from Edinburgh last Saturday was as good as any I've heard. Forsyth Murray and the stupidest SNPer I could ever conceive of (Tasmina). I seriously wondered whether they chose their candidates in a lucky dip.
It is a fact that a central Leave argument is that we do not have sovereignty. As you acknowledge, we do.
Good luck trying that tedious bit of hairsplitting on the doorstep, the voter will say fine, lets see you throw out the EU criminals then, oh wait, you can't because of free movement, and you can't change that short of leaving the EU.
I am not trying it on the doorstep, I am arguing with you. Although I am not. We both agree that Parliament is sovereign.
Indeed. But everyone knows that parliament has temporarily surrendered that sovereignty to the EU in exchange for various supposed benefits. Leave is about parliament opting to take back that surrendered sovereignty either by negotiations (Article 50), or by simple declaration (Repealing the ECA(1972)).
@thhamilton: REMAIN/LEAVE: If the UK leaves the EU, our economy will be transformed. REMAIN: On that basis, we'll need a new Budget. LEAVE: Noooooo!
Well, quite...
What Leave is effectively saying is that we should stick with the budget even though this was designed to implement policies predicated on high levels of EU immigration. Can anyone explain how that makes sense?
Given as you've already remarked it will take approximately two years to withdraw from the EU what is to stop any new policies being put in place at the next budget which will be well within that window?
I'm not surprised that Leavers are sulking about George Osborne's latest move. Unpleasant questions such as how to pay for the implementation of their very expensive hobby horse aren't half as much fun as imagining yourself to be an oppressed people struggling to be free.
When was the last time the treasury or the BoE got a forecast right? His sums are based on conjecture and scare tactics. I note he isnt proposing to touch the £12bn international aid budget. Its pure blackmail.. Brits dont like that ..
A £30 billion hole? A bagatelle for Leavers. Let's just hope that the economic consensus is wildly inaccurate and wildly inaccurate the right way.
If it all goes wrong we can just shut quite a few hospitals. I'm sure no one would mind.
cut foreign aid and trim Trident or dump HS2 and hey presto we can open more hospitals
Removal of Cameron as leader followed by sacking of Osborne.
Next....
If the Brexiteers launch a coup (which is what you are proposing) I am not sure they would avoid a confidence vote.
It may be called by someone else (the SNP would be favourite) and I am not convinced a Tory majority would vote against it
Great - we'll have a general election. With more than half of the voters just having voted Leave, we'll (by which I mean those of us in the Tory party who don't want a blackmail budget) will likely win a majority.
A divided party will not win a majority.
Wiser Tories will want to put as loooooooong a gap as possible between this debacle and facing the electorate again......2020 might be long enough....
Mr. Observer, except that it's debatable as to the economic impact of migration as the positive reports seem to have a tendency not to include the costs in terms of pressure on services (extra education, housing, health costs etc).
Furthermore, if total migration falls but a sensible migration policy* enables more high quality, well-paid migrants then it'd be a double bonus, with less pressure on services and more tax revenue.
*I am aware this is about as likely as an 18 year old winning an F1 race.
How many MPs would vote down an Osborne confidence motion, in this parallel universe where he wouldn't already have been sacked...
What is the mechanism the Brexiteers have for sacking Osborne, other than a confidence motion in the Government?
Letters to the 1922 Committee, vote of No Confidence in Cameron (not the government). Iain Duncan Smith was removed as leader via this mechanism, it took one day to do it.
With 180 MPs supporting remain in the party I spot a flaw. Not to mention the many prominent leaders who want him to stay.
180 MPs support remain BEFORE the referendum.
How many support it afterwards will be close to zero.
The judiciary can find reasons if required: amongst other things their role is to act as a thoughtful check on the idiocies of politicans. Look at, for example, parliamentary attempts to stop courts ruling on legislation by drafting clauses to the effect that the judiciary cannot rule on the subject. The same would apply here if they thought it appropriate.
Removal of Cameron as leader followed by sacking of Osborne.
Next....
If the Brexiteers launch a coup (which is what you are proposing) I am not sure they would avoid a confidence vote.
It may be called by someone else (the SNP would be favourite) and I am not convinced a Tory majority would vote against it
Great - we'll have a general election. With more than half of the voters just having voted Leave, we'll (by which I mean those of us in the Tory party who don't want a blackmail budget) will likely win a majority.
A divided party will not win a majority.
Wiser Tories will want to put as loooooooong a gap as possible between this debacle and facing the electorate again......2020 might be long enough....
Indeed. We have nearly 4 years for the result of this referendum to be implemented (one way or the other), for a new leader to replace Cameron and for a new united front to be put forwards on a new program of competent governance. It will be long enough, especially if a leave vote occurs as that will end the Tory split on the EU.
The Tories recently voted in favour of a budget that needs high levels of EU immigration in order to stand a chance of working.
If we vote for Brexit we are rejecting a basic tenet of the budget.
It seems to me that it was not remotely clear to many or most Tory voters that there was that implied linkage. It was certainly news to me when the government mentioned it at the start of the campaign. It is still unclear to a lot of Tories I know. It clearly was the case, but Dave and George had obvious reasons for wanting to keep it as quiet as possible, as it was bound to piss off lots of their voters and activists.
It also means that his 10's of thousands was a flat lie, but I am not surprised about that, as everyone knows here, I have always had an extremely low regard for Dave and his flexible approach to the actualite.
Mr. Observer, there is a third way (ahem): we have annual Budgets. Just have them take account of the situation without Cameron and Osborne raising income tax, cutting pensions and protecting foreign aid.
Leave should say that they foresee a prosperous future outside the EU, but if a cut were necessary it'd be to foreign aid.
Dumping HS2 would probably add 5% to the leave vote in the home counties affected by it...
The judiciary can find reasons if required: amongst other things their role is to act as a thoughtful check on the idiocies of politicans. Look at, for example, parliamentary attempts to stop courts ruling on legislation by drafting clauses to the effect that the judiciary cannot rule on the subject. The same would apply here if they thought it appropriate.
I think most judges would think long and hard before ruling in the opposite direction to the views of Denning.
How many MPs would vote down an Osborne confidence motion, in this parallel universe where he wouldn't already have been sacked...
What is the mechanism the Brexiteers have for sacking Osborne, other than a confidence motion in the Government?
Letters to the 1922 Committee, vote of No Confidence in Cameron (not the government). Iain Duncan Smith was removed as leader via this mechanism, it took one day to do it.
With 180 MPs supporting remain in the party I spot a flaw. Not to mention the many prominent leaders who want him to stay.
180 MPs support remain BEFORE the referendum.
How many support it afterwards will be close to zero.
Cameron would win a confidence vote comfortably.
The price would be Osborne's head on a spike.
A week being a long time in politics couldn't be truer this morning.
nailed on victory and Tories tearing themselves apart.
Instead they have turned out to be the weakest link and while the Tories are on cue ripping each other apart, Labour are suddenly looking into a chasm of their own growing bewteen their traditional WC supporters and their middle class luvvies.
While Britain is running a large deficit, MPs do not have the only or even necessarily the decisive voice in budgetary matters. The markets need to be kept assuaged also. Determinedly ignoring a new hole in public funding would not do much to help on that front.
But as @AnotherRichard wisely points out (though not on this occasion for some reason), the money can always be found for the pet projects of those holding the reins of power, no matter how vast the sum.
At the risk of stating the obvious the second most effective ploy of Leave has been to discuss all the nice things we can get with the £350m a week (ahem). It is therefore typically clever tactics by Osborne to make it clear that in his opinion there will be significantly less money to go around after Brexit not more.
Will anyone believe him? I'm really not sure. The previous "forecasts" of the Treasury were so overdone (adding up years of MoE differences from a model based on entirely negative assumptions to get a largish figure) and ridiculed that I think this effort might be less successful than it might have been. But if Osborne can get the debate off immigration and back on to the economic effects he will do the Remain campaign some good. For all the vitriol poured on him on here of late he is a brilliant political operator who should not be underestimated.
On topic the most likely winner in my view is indeed Edinburgh but at those odds this is a mugs bet.
Any Questions from Edinburgh last Saturday was as good as any I've heard. Forsyth Murray and the stupidest SNPer I could ever conceive of (Tasmina). I seriously wondered whether they chose their candidates in a lucky dip.
The slightly scary thing is that Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh practised as a solicitor for several years before being elected and made partner in a respected firm. They go way stupider than her. But I have struggled to find anyone sharing my heretical views in Edinburgh. Even Tories generally prefer to follow the lead of Ruth.
Removal of Cameron as leader followed by sacking of Osborne.
Next....
If the Brexiteers launch a coup (which is what you are proposing) I am not sure they would avoid a confidence vote.
It may be called by someone else (the SNP would be favourite) and I am not convinced a Tory majority would vote against it
Great - we'll have a general election. With more than half of the voters just having voted Leave, we'll (by which I mean those of us in the Tory party who don't want a blackmail budget) will likely win a majority.
A divided party will not win a majority.
Wiser Tories will want to put as loooooooong a gap as possible between this debacle and facing the electorate again......2020 might be long enough....
a leave vote......will end the Tory split on the EU.
No it won't.
But its interesting to read how Tory LEAVErs regard the REMAINers as the cause of the split....
While Britain is running a large deficit, MPs do not have the only or even necessarily the decisive voice in budgetary matters. The markets need to be kept assuaged also. Determinedly ignoring a new hole in public funding would not do much to help on that front.
But as @AnotherRichard wisely points out (though not on this occasion for some reason), the money can always be found for the pet projects of those holding the reins of power, no matter how vast the sum.
Indeed you are right Mr Meeks, if the free market loses confidence in the future it expects for Britain then it can cause a major increase in our borrowing costs.
Tell me, since the odds of Brexit went from extremely unlikely to quite plausible in recent weeks what has happened to the governments borrowing costs?
At the risk of stating the obvious the second most effective ploy of Leave has been to discuss all the nice things we can get with the £350m a week (ahem). It is therefore typically clever tactics by Osborne to make it clear that in his opinion there will be significantly less money to go around after Brexit not more.
Will anyone believe him? I'm really not sure. The previous "forecasts" of the Treasury were so overdone (adding up years of MoE differences from a model based on entirely negative assumptions to get a largish figure) and ridiculed that I think this effort might be less successful than it might have been. But if Osborne can get the debate off immigration and back on to the economic effects he will do the Remain campaign some good. For all the vitriol poured on him on here of late he is a brilliant political operator who should not be underestimated.
On topic the most likely winner in my view is indeed Edinburgh but at those odds this is a mugs bet.
Any Questions from Edinburgh last Saturday was as good as any I've heard. Forsyth Murray and the stupidest SNPer I could ever conceive of (Tasmina). I seriously wondered whether they chose their candidates in a lucky dip.
The slightly scary thing is that Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh practised as a solicitor for several years before being elected and made partner in a respected firm. They go way stupider than her. But I have struggled to find anyone sharing my heretical views in Edinburgh. Even Tories generally prefer to follow the lead of Ruth.
Please please please please please can Ruth come down here instead of the current jackasses in number 10 and 11. How far ahead would "remain" be if she was running the main show ? 60-40, 65-35 ? It'd be a complete rout ! Osborne must be taking huge chunks off the remain vote.
If she was in the Commons the betting for next leader would be significantly different.
Whatever the outcome of the referendum Osborne has just trashed the Conservative image on schools and hospitals.
Labour can now say, with full justification, that Osborne is planning cuts there.
I also note Osborne's threat to make defence cuts.
More longstanding PBers will remember how certain PB Tories promised to leave the party if defence spending was ever cut. Perhaps they will be full of fury with Osborne today. Or perhaps not.
George is framing the debate in a way that is advantageous to his side. Its what he does. And he is good at it.
He is toast, should be tarred and feathered and run out of town tied to Cameron's back.
Just out of interest - do you think the SNP would welcome a general election (and support a vote of no-confidence) given that there's not much room for gains for them?
George is framing the debate in a way that is advantageous to his side. Its what he does. And he is good at it.
He is toast, should be tarred and feathered and run out of town tied to Cameron's back.
Osborne must've known he'd get serious blow back - but the scale of this revolt seems to have surprised everyone. Beth on Sky is almost goggle eyed about it.
Who is running the top of the Remain campaign? Dumb and Dumber's pig-shit thick country cousins?
A grown up in that campaign should have taken Osborne to one side and punched him until he stopped speaking. He is utterly toxic, yet somebody thinks he is still what the public wants to hear?
Remain, in the last week, how about you lift your sights from trying to keep Osborne's near-zero leadership ambitions alive. And think a little loftier than STOP BORIS.
Removal of Cameron as leader followed by sacking of Osborne.
Next....
If the Brexiteers launch a coup (which is what you are proposing) I am not sure they would avoid a confidence vote.
It may be called by someone else (the SNP would be favourite) and I am not convinced a Tory majority would vote against it
Great - we'll have a general election. With more than half of the voters just having voted Leave, we'll (by which I mean those of us in the Tory party who don't want a blackmail budget) will likely win a majority.
A divided party will not win a majority.
Wiser Tories will want to put as loooooooong a gap as possible between this debacle and facing the electorate again......2020 might be long enough....
a leave vote......will end the Tory split on the EU.
No it won't.
But its interesting to read how Tory LEAVErs regard the REMAINers as the cause of the split....
There won't be Tory Remainers if the nation has voted Leave. The Tory Remainers will look after number one and 'respect the will of the British electorate'.
I think you could name on one hand the number of Tory MPs that will publicly repudiate the referendum result if its a Leave vote.
Mr. Observer, there is a third way (ahem): we have annual Budgets. Just have them take account of the situation without Cameron and Osborne raising income tax, cutting pensions and protecting foreign aid.
Leave should say that they foresee a prosperous future outside the EU, but if a cut were necessary it'd be to foreign aid.
Dumping HS2 would probably add 5% to the leave vote in the home counties affected by it...
Good point. If the nut-jobs take over the tories, HS2 is very likely to be an immediate casualty.
Once again REMAIN dominates the media with talk of serious problems if we leave. It's brutal, it's not pretty, it doesn't shift the polls, but it's how the Tories won in 2015.
Mr. Eek, true, but it would lose votes in Yorkshire (HS2 is popular, generally, up here, the dislike comes from places that feel like they're missing out. Plus, Leeds has repeatedly had a tram or similar system dangled in front of it, spent hundred of millions on preparatory work only for the money to then be withdrawn and the scheme to be axed).
Removal of Cameron as leader followed by sacking of Osborne.
Next....
If the Brexiteers launch a coup (which is what you are proposing) I am not sure they would avoid a confidence vote.
It may be called by someone else (the SNP would be favourite) and I am not convinced a Tory majority would vote against it
Great - we'll have a general election. With more than half of the voters just having voted Leave, we'll (by which I mean those of us in the Tory party who don't want a blackmail budget) will likely win a majority.
A divided party will not win a majority.
I don't see the Tories as a divided Party. They are united for LEAVE, apart from a handful of LibDems who infiltrated them and seized the leadership after real Tories had managed, for the first time ever under universal suffrage, to lose three elections in a row.
They will win well over 400 seats at the next GE, maybe even 500 - and the SNP will become Her Majesty's Loyal opposition
Osborne has just done Leave a huge favour. By threatening a childishly petulant 'revenge budget' all he has done is confirm that Remain have lost the argument and do not have the British public's interest at heart. He needs to go now. As do we. Vote Leave.
Who is running the top of the Remain campaign? Dumb and Dumber's pig-shit thick country cousins?
Will Straw, who the voters of Rossendale and Darwen didn't want so much his opponent increased his majority by 3000, and Ryan Coetzee the titan behind the LD's 2015 election campaign, need I say more
Comments
Lord Denning had a view. Others will have different views. There would be an argument and the courts would decide.
It is a fact that a central Leave argument is that we do not have sovereignty. As you acknowledge, we do.
"Toad now hears from Rat that Toad Hall has been taken over by weasels and stoats from the Wild Wood."
How double-dare they? Don't they know their station in life? It will cause a drop in GDP!
But a significant majority of more than two thirds – 68% – at the same time insist they are not willing to lose any cash at all personally to reduce the number of migrants coming in from Europe
Vote Brexit and Stop the EU looking after British jobs.
Osborne and Cameron down, possibly a new election.
It must be a temptation.
Did the very high Scottish referendum turnout lead to an increased turnout at the General Election?
If so, I probably would be more tempted by Edinburgh than the rest, despite the short odds.
How many support it afterwards will be close to zero.
It's got me glued to the telly this morning - WTF is going on? I can't recall such fisticuffs in many years.
I've seen a fair few banners/sidebar ads and I've also seen video ads on Youtube. These have mostly been Leave.
Leave should say that they foresee a prosperous future outside the EU, but if a cut were necessary it'd be to foreign aid.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/679734/Europe-EU-referendum-10-secrets-bombshells-government-Brexit
and the voters after the blood of Dave and his supporters.
Don't believe a word Osborne says, because we wouldn't have so vindictive a chancellor if we vote Leave.
More seriously, yes we'll need a new budget, no it won't slash the NHS, no it won't put up basic income tax. There simple wouldn't be the votes for it, and it would likely lead to street protests.
"Writing in The Times tomorrow, Osborne says this is all a fair representation of what would be needed to plug the black hole that Brexit would create. Three flaws with this argument…
If Brits vote for Brexit, it will take minimum two years – probably five years. So why raise taxes in an emergency budget now? Unless you’re trying to scare voters, that is...
Osborne has been nursing a black hole since he stepped into the job. Why the sudden urgency to fill a Brexit one? As he knows better than anyone else, there’s an alternative to tough fiscal decisions: more debt. That’s what you do should you encounter a financial shock: borrow and stimulate. Cut taxes, increase spending. More debt is the option he has gone for time and time again, whenever he encounters difficulty. So what on earth makes us think he would not take that option this time? Especially given that the worldwide gilt slump has just pushed government borrowing costs to the floor.
If Britain votes for Brexit than George Osborne won’t be giving any more Budgets. He’ll be on the backbenchers [sic], writing his memoirs – or (more likely) asking Rupert Harrison for a job."
Who would stand with BoZo and the Faragists?
Who would lead the Economic Realists?
I'd be incensed if I cared that much about the Tories anymore.
We differ on how to vote on this referendum, but it's not a right or wrong argument for me. I've waited 41 years to get revenge on the politicians who wilfully lied to me then. And to make it, worse, tried to rewrite history by claiming they'd always meant something different.
Why trust any politician then, you may ask. I trust very few, and none totally. But some are just taking the piss.
I'd rather have British politicians I know and distrust, rather than foreign ones with all their foreign ways. And I'm on the side of the weasels and stoats, who always get a bad press.
The Tories recently voted in favour of a budget that needs high levels of EU immigration in order to stand a chance of working.
If we vote for Brexit we are rejecting a basic tenet of the budget.
Therefore, we need a new budget. One that reflects the new reality, which is that if we are to cut EU immigration significantly and also hit government deficit reduction targets - which all Tories are enthusiastically signed up to - we will need to raise taxes and cut public spending further.
Gidiot messes up yet another budget.
Furthermore, if total migration falls but a sensible migration policy* enables more high quality, well-paid migrants then it'd be a double bonus, with less pressure on services and more tax revenue.
*I am aware this is about as likely as an 18 year old winning an F1 race.
It also means that his 10's of thousands was a flat lie, but I am not surprised about that, as everyone knows here, I have always had an extremely low regard for Dave and his flexible approach to the actualite.
I do wonder though whether this was on any kind of grid, or a response to the complete horlicks that Labour seem to make of yesterday.
But as @AnotherRichard wisely points out (though not on this occasion for some reason), the money can always be found for the pet projects of those holding the reins of power, no matter how vast the sum.
But its interesting to read how Tory LEAVErs regard the REMAINers as the cause of the split....
Tell me, since the odds of Brexit went from extremely unlikely to quite plausible in recent weeks what has happened to the governments borrowing costs?
Labour can now say, with full justification, that Osborne is planning cuts there.
I also note Osborne's threat to make defence cuts.
More longstanding PBers will remember how certain PB Tories promised to leave the party if defence spending was ever cut. Perhaps they will be full of fury with Osborne today. Or perhaps not.
A grown up in that campaign should have taken Osborne to one side and punched him until he stopped speaking. He is utterly toxic, yet somebody thinks he is still what the public wants to hear?
Remain, in the last week, how about you lift your sights from trying to keep Osborne's near-zero leadership ambitions alive. And think a little loftier than STOP BORIS.
I think you could name on one hand the number of Tory MPs that will publicly repudiate the referendum result if its a Leave vote.
https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=viz+spoilt+bastard&biw=1360&bih=612&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&sqi=2&ved=0ahUKEwiQrtDpu6nNAhXiIsAKHXgPCsQQsAQIGw&dpr=1#imgrc=8Y5zUBMm9i9m1M:
They will win well over 400 seats at the next GE, maybe even 500 - and the SNP will become Her Majesty's Loyal opposition