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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Which of the following areas will have the highest Remain share of the vote
Ladbrokes have a market up on which of the above areas will have the highest Remain share of the vote. My attention was attracted straight away to Brighton, from my various visits there, it just feels somewhere that will vote strongly for Remain. At 16/1 it seems like a bet worth making, though I’m sure others will disagree and have their own suggestions.
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Dear Avaazers across the UK,
The results are in, and an overwhelming majority of our movement has spoken: we're voting remain!!
Brexit is the dream of the Trumps and Farages of this world. And like them, the Leave campaign has risen in the polls mainly through fantastic lies delivered by rag media.
The truth is, Europe is a no-brainer. The challenges we face are, by far, best met together. Our unity is a force for peace, for human and labour rights, for environmental sustainability, for our future. And that's why those who want to take us backward on all those fronts, also want Brexit.
We have 9 days left, and we're going to fight, every hour of it, for Britain, and for Europe. The Avaaz remain campaign must be 100% funded by donations through this email. Whether we have the funds to rise to this moment and mobilise our 1 million UK members depends on whether just 4000 of us chip in the price of a drink or a meal in the next 12 hours. This is the choice and chance of our generation - let's rise to it:
YES, I'LL DONATE ...
Sometimes, history strikes when we're not looking. Too trusting that Brexit was silly and therefore unlikely, sensible people have been relatively silent in our media while Tory politicians slugged it out. But this is too important - it's time to take this debate back from the loons and liars, before it's too late.
If enough of us support, Avaaz will:
• run ads in the Metro, one of the most widely read papers in Britain, making our case for remain
• churn out steady social media content in the next 9 days to make the case and encourage voting
• mobilise our movement to hit the phones and knock on doors for the remain campaign
• change the frame of the debate - running a world record "kiss-chain" of love across the continent
• anything and everything else we can think of and execute on this urgent timeline
Europe is not perfect, but neither is the UK government. We need to work for reform of both. One lie pushed by the leave camp is that Europe is not democratic - but all the laws are made, and all the officials appointed, by ministers and MEPs and governments that we elect!
And Europe is an incredible dream - to see nations that murdered each other just 2 generations ago, working together in peace and unity. That dream of our grandparents and future for our grandchildren is on the line now - let's not lose it without a fight:
YES, I'LL DONATE ...
Brexit isn't just about Europe. It's the end of Britain too - because if the UK leaves Europe, Scotland will leave the UK, and possibly Northern Ireland as well.
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Britain has long been a globalised nation and people - it is our past, and our future. It's also been key to our leadership in the world - the Commonwealth of Nations, the European Union, and the United Nations were all built with British leadership at their core. It's just a different kind of Britain that the Nigel Farages want - one that isn't us. By next Wednesday, let's make sure we remember who we are.
With hope,
Ricken, Alice, Alex, Fatima, Bert, and the whole Avaaz UK team
MORE INFORMATION
The UK's EU referendum: All you need to know (BBC)
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-32810887
Gordon Brown is taking the long view of European history – and that will swing the last votes (Independent)
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/gordon-brown-is-taking-the-long-view-of-european-history-and-that-could-swing-votes-a7079901.html
EU referendum: leave takes six-point lead in Guardian/ICM polls (The Guardian)
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/13/eu-referendum-leave-campaign-takes-six-point-lead-in-guardianicm-polls
Slight problem Gideon old chap - after a Brexit vote you won't be Chancellor for the next budget.
I think it will be one of Oxford or Cambridge - but it's hard to call which. I think Oxford has a bigger 'Town' population than Cambridge (i.e. people more likely to be like the rest of the country), but some of them may be concerned about the Mini plant at Cowley. If I had to put money on it, I'd go for Cambridge.
Slight problem, Paul old chap.
You get no say in the matter until 2020.......
The only way to deal with bullies though is to face them down
Basically...F*** Off Osborne, we're all voting out
PS - Exactly how is threatening to raise the higher rate of income tax by 3% and inheritance tax by 5% meant to encourage Labour voters to vote Remain lol
2p added to the 20p basic rate of income tax
3p added to the 40p higher rate of income tax
5p on the rate of inheritance tax, taking it from 40p to 45p
A 5% jump in fuel and alcohol duties
£2 billion cut from the pensions bill
2% cuts to the “protected” NHS, schools and defence budgets
5% cuts in budgets like policing, transport and councils
http://order-order.com/2016/06/15/osborne-drops-schrodingers-dead-cat/
Osborne will be lucky if it is not a two thirds majority for Brexit after threatening us like this.
I notice that the £12 bn international aid budget isnt on that target list. Funny that.
his goal now is to take Boris with him
win-win
There are many examples of fine diplomacy by the British Foreign Office. Europe is not one of them.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/14/dont-want-to-leave-but-hate-the-idea-of-remain-i-have-the-ideal/
About 15 years too late.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/david-cameron/news/75536/michael-gove-and-boris-johnson
Michael Gove attacks David Cameron over EU 'scaremongering'
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/03/eu-referendum-michael-gove-agrees-to-audit-of-vote-leave-350m-claim
However competition for space and resources couldn't be lower on Maslow's Heirarchy. Perhaps the slogan of the Referendum will turn out to be " Immigration *is* the Economy Stupid ! " ?
A government cannot operate effectively unless it can command a majority within the House of Commons. Should it fail to enjoy the confidence of the majority of the House, it has to hold a general election. For example, on 28 March 1979, the Conservative Opposition defeated the Labour Government by 311-310 votes on the motion "That this House has no confidence in Her Majesty's Government". Parliament was dissolved on 7 April, the General Election was won by the Conservatives on 3 May, with the new Parliament summoned to meet on 9 May 1979. Governments can also be forced into resignation or into calling a general election by being defeated in the debate on the Queen's Speech (its legislative programme for the session) as for instance on 21 January 1924, or losing its Finance Bill, or other major items of legislation on which it fought a general election campaign.
http://www.parliament.uk/documents/commons-information-office/m07.pdf
emphasis added
Theyve just spent 2 decades rubbing their core supporters noses in diversity
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/13/shameful-leaveeu-tweet-uk-face-orlando-style-attack
Though since Orlando was carried out by a New York born American citizen, I'm not sure how leaving the EU would have any bearing on whether a London born British citizen would or would not carry out an Orlando style attack.
Perhaps a LEAVEr could explain?
Anyway, back on topic, Btighton and Hove seems the best value from the list above.
Good to see; maybe this last push from Labour and the unions will save the day.
Its the back bencher from Uxbridge, who notoriously doesn't do details, who might have a bit of explaining to do.....
Boris Johnson was left red-faced tonight after he was forced to admit he hadn't read a Bank of England report he'd been misquoting through the campaign.
The bottle-blonde Brexit backer blustered as he was skewered by the SNP's Alex Salmond on his claims.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/red-faced-boris-johnson-forced-8193003
Heroic alliteration: bottle-blonde Brexit backer blustered
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/all-systems-go-as-brexit-camp-reveals-its-blueprint-for-britain-gdqtc8cf6
Westminster ought to be high up the list, along with Lambeth, Haringey, and Camden.
"The rumour from (I believe) Steve Hilton was that the Conservative top echelons became incredibly frustrated in their first term when most of the big reforms they thought were necessary turned out to be impossible because of EU membership. As such, everything was set up for a massive orchestrated row with the EU which would lead to Cameron leading Leave and winning a whopping great victory, with disentanglement from the EU being the crowning achievement of his premiership. Somewhere along the line, apparently, the plan went wrong."
That is precisely so. Not just Gove and Hilton either, but also Letwin and a couple of others.
Edinburgh does not.
If they believe that Brexit will harm the economy they have to cut their coat accordingly. Brexiteers may dispute that judgement but the electorate will eventually judge the guilty men when things become clearer.
Since this referendum is basically a blue on blue struggle I suspect that Tory politicians will be the ones to suffer most if Brexit does occur. A lot will depend on what happens politically in the case of Brexit. If Boris and Gove take over and then have to increase income tax and cut expenditure then we may have to look forward to Corbyn with a landslide.
nailed on victory and Tories tearing themselves apart.
Instead they have turned out to be the weakest link and while the Tories are on cue ripping each other apart, Labour are suddenly looking into a chasm of their own growing bewteen their traditional WC supporters and their middle class luvvies.
What happens next ?
Good to see Yellow Submarine back.
- remove VAT on domestic energy
- take back WTO seat
- new Bill to deport criminals/terrorists
- repeal legislation that gives EU supremacy over our laws
- stop EU payments to big businesses
- end free movement from the EU
- guarantee extra NHS funding
And I hope you are right.
An interesting thing is whether the bait and switchers - the Tories who talked up UKIP through the 2010-15 period but then cast their vote for Con in the 2015 GE lose their patience with the party if it doesn't deliver a huge dip in immigration very soon after this referendum.
Will anyone believe him? I'm really not sure. The previous "forecasts" of the Treasury were so overdone (adding up years of MoE differences from a model based on entirely negative assumptions to get a largish figure) and ridiculed that I think this effort might be less successful than it might have been. But if Osborne can get the debate off immigration and back on to the economic effects he will do the Remain campaign some good. For all the vitriol poured on him on here of late he is a brilliant political operator who should not be underestimated.
On topic the most likely winner in my view is indeed Edinburgh but at those odds this is a mugs bet.
And completely illegal too, of course, given that we will be in the EU until we formally leave it and so will not be able to half the things promised because we will still be bound by EU rules.
In a contradictory finding, three in five Brits – 61% – say that they would be willing to accept a short term economic slowdown in order to see EU immigration controls tightened, which Brexit would allow.
But a significant majority of more than two thirds – 68% – at the same time insist they are not willing to lose any cash at all personally to reduce the number of migrants coming in from Europe.
In other words, voters are happy to leave the EU if it causes someone else financial pain, but not if it causes them any.
His sums are based on conjecture and scare tactics.
I note he isnt proposing to touch the £12bn international aid budget.
Its pure blackmail.. Brits dont like that ..
IMO, the biggest Leave percentages will be Boston, Dover, Thanet, Thurrock, Havering, Basildon, Sandwell, Rotherham, Great Yarmouth, Plymouth, Portsmouth, Doncaster, Tendring, South Tyneside, although I don't know which order.
If it all goes wrong we can just shut quite a few hospitals. I'm sure no one would mind.
What I also think that polling shows is that for all the sound and fury expended on here arguing with people who are simply never going to change their minds most people really just don't care about the EU that much. It would be nice to leave but not if it causes even minor inconvenience.
This is why Remain are still very much in the game. They need to big up this decision over the next 8 days and Leave need to play it down. Since most of the keenest leave supporters seem to live for little else this is going to be tricky.
I'm disgusted by the latest ploy by Osborne and although a lifelong Tory supporter find my dislike of Cameron and Osborne increasing every day.
Where will I place my vote - if at all - in the future?
His threats are so over the top as not to be credible - especially as not a penny is proposed to be cut from the £12 billion foreign aid budget.
Osborne and co have learned nothing and still think we are fools
I can't see myself voting for a party led by BoZo any time soon
Well, quite.
How many Labour MPs are required to outvote the Brexiteers?
I don't advise asking BoZo to do the sums on that one...
No, I think it may be the spoilt, posh boy who reacts with fury when he fails to get his own way.
It can only be an act of desperation, as it's a high-risk strategy. It would have more effect if anyone trusted him to find his own arse with a roadmap and compass. And it will certainly remind Labour voters why they vote the way they do.
Little Lord Fauntleroy is having a hissy fit.
Sorry for all the stereotypes, but it's like a cartoon character come to life.
Boris might be PM, but I wouldn't put that at more than a 30% chance, if he is, he will not be heading the negotiations, as can be seen from his tenure in London City Hall, he does the big picture sunlit uplands moral boosting routine, and then hires a huge load of deputies to do the detailed spade work.
In the event of a Boris PM I can't see he would change that formula much, he would appoint an astute, clubbable, establishment eurosceptic (The Mogg!) to head the negotiations, someone that will not set the eurocrats teeth on edge more than is necessary and leave them to it while he does the hopey changey stuff.
Hasn't Cameron said he'd invoke Article 50 the morning of a LEAVE vote?
Whatever happens next Thursday as a country we face years of uncertainty. A Tory party that has lost all sense of unity, an unelectable Labour party and a phalanx of nationalists who are hamstring by the economic impossibility of independence. Good old FPTP.