Mr. Pulpstar, interesting post. I did wonder some time ago if couples (ahem, or friends) might vote in cancelling pairs, as happened in the Scottish vote.
Nothing has changed from my early May hypothesis, IMHO.
British voters *as a whole* want to give the UK and the EU a very nasty shock, and then deliver the closest Remain vote humanly possible. So voters will now calibrate themselves back a tad from Leave to deliver it, in my view.
That then puts our EU membership on probation. "One last chance" etc.
The betting markets like the Osborne gambit. Leave drifting.
I think it will work. In the end if you've got a Chancellor with a can of gas and a lighter going mental in the Treasury, and threatening to burn the place down, you have to calm him down, and give him what he wants.
Once the referendum is won he will be seized, and pilloried, he will be loathed and reviled beyond anything we've seen so far.
Cameron and Osborne have utterly destroyed their reputations and careers, and poisoned the pro-EU centre ground of the Tory party. I predict the party that evolves from this will be even more fiercely eurosceptic. So the issue will return very quickly.
As an aside, given we have our vote models, I'd be very surprised if we dont basically know by 1:30. The exception being if it's very, very close. But I'm now expecting a fairly clear Leave win.
(But reserve the option to change my mind at least four more times.)
Cameron and Osborne have utterly destroyed their reputations and careers, and poisoned the pro-EU centre ground of the Tory party. I predict the party that evolves from this will be even more fiercely eurosceptic. So the issue will return very quickly.
Why do you assume it will stay one party?
Far more likely the closet Kippers split from the Economic Realists
You have to be kidding me? A self inflicted tonne of extra borrowing?
It worked for Gordon Brown.
And George Osborne. That's why the Brexiteers are infuriated: because a chancellor who's spend six years kicking the can down the road now wants to eliminate a deficit projected to arise in 2019 the day after we vote to Leave.
Based on two rather fanciful assumptions.
Firstly that he is still Chancellor if we vote leave, and secondly, even if he was that he could get such an idiotic budget through the Commons with a tiny majority and 50+ incensed party members openly denying him. Its bullshit, and worse, everyone can see its bullshit.
It's not a credible threat. Imagine Leave win and Osborne/Cameron are still in Downing St pro tem, are they going to heap ordure on themselves unnecessarily?
It's really not difficult:
The current budget is predicated on ongoing high levels of immigration from the EU and is aimed at eliminating the deficit by 2020. If we vote to Leave next week we will have voted to significantly reduce immigration from the EU. In order to hit the deficit reduction targets that all Tories are signed up to, therefore, the Chancellor will have to produce a new budget in which additional savings and tax rises are implemented.
Leavers tell us withdrawal from the EU will be worth the financial pain. They are signed up to eliminating the deficit by 2020. I can't see what they are so upset about. Osborne is giving them exactly what they want.
When the leavers speak of “taking control”, they mean casting off from our continental harbour into the swell of unregulated global markets in a vessel crewed by Tory mutineers whose competence is scuttling governments not running them.
When the leavers speak of “taking control”, they mean casting off from our continental harbour into the swell of unregulated global markets in a vessel crewed by Tory mutineers whose competence is scuttling governments not running them.
As an aside, given we have our vote models, I'd be very surprised if we dont basically know by 1:30. The exception being if it's very, very close. But I'm now expecting a fairly clear Leave win.
(But reserve the option to change my mind at least four more times.)
Betfair seems suddenly a bit more convinced by Remain in the last 30 minutes, quite a sharp price move. Don't see any factual basis for it, wonder what's happening
A familiar pattern is developing on the Betfair market. In the absence of any polls the market interprets all noise as a positive for Remain. The most important information going forward is when can we expect the next poll?
Yes. Most people who are betting don't want to believe the polling.
The betting markets like the Osborne gambit. Leave drifting.
I think it will work. In the end if you've got a Chancellor with a can of gas and a lighter going mental in the Treasury, and threatening to burn the place down, you have to calm him down, and give him what he wants.
Once the referendum is won he will be seized, and pilloried, he will be loathed and reviled beyond anything we've seen so far.
Cameron and Osborne have utterly destroyed their reputations and careers, and poisoned the pro-EU centre ground of the Tory party. I predict the party that evolves from this will be even more fiercely eurosceptic. So the issue will return very quickly.
The Blairites and Cameroons would be fools not to do a deal after this. A Europhile centrist pro-market party of the centre ground would be a powerful electoral force.
Priti Patel has been promoted to the role of chancellor in waiting by some commentators, I suggest that those people listen to her interview with Mishal Husain for the Today programme on Radio 4 on Tuesday. Failing that please read John Crace's withering analysis of her performance headed 'Let me be clear:Priti clearly isn't.' Her only answer to difficult questions was to use the vacant mantra 'let me be clear' or 'take back control.'
As a Labour voter I am no fan of Osborne but at least he sounded lucid and authoritative this morning.
AA Gill's brilliant essay Sunday Times June 12th is also worth reading and puts into words what many of us have been thinking; If we leave the European Union we risk a backward move to a time when, 'getting our country back,' means a politics built upon nostalgia and a hatred of Johnny foreigner, no basis for building a vibrant culture and economy.
Betfair seems suddenly a bit more convinced by Remain in the last 30 minutes, quite a sharp price move. Don't see any factual basis for it, wonder what's happening
A familiar pattern is developing on the Betfair market. In the absence of any polls the market interprets all noise as a positive for Remain. The most important information going forward is when can we expect the next poll?
The betting markets like the Osborne gambit. Leave drifting.
I was going to vote "remain" (with no pairing) yesterday.
I think lots of undecideds will make a similar choice. The idea that we will step into the unknown, withdrawing from the biggest single market on Earth is [select adjective here].
When the leavers speak of “taking control”, they mean casting off from our continental harbour into the swell of unregulated global markets in a vessel crewed by Tory mutineers whose competence is scuttling governments not running them.
No, they mean the UK becoming a fully self-governing liberal democracy again, just like most other developed nations around the world.
This isn't difficult.
You mean, like one that could hold a referendum on whether to leave an international body?
Remainers keep repeating this line as if it's some killer point, that because we're having a referendum everything is fine and dandy, but if the UK was happy with the balance of powers it had signed over to the EU by treaty, and the effects of it, we wouldn't be having it.
The betting markets like the Osborne gambit. Leave drifting.
I think it will work. In the end if you've got a Chancellor with a can of gas and a lighter going mental in the Treasury, and threatening to burn the place down, you have to calm him down, and give him what he wants.
Once the referendum is won he will be seized, and pilloried, he will be loathed and reviled beyond anything we've seen so far.
Cameron and Osborne have utterly destroyed their reputations and careers, and poisoned the pro-EU centre ground of the Tory party. I predict the party that evolves from this will be even more fiercely eurosceptic. So the issue will return very quickly.
The Blairites and Cameroons would be fools not to do a deal after this. A Europhile centrist pro-market party of the centre ground would be a powerful electoral force.
Have the British electorate ever voted for chaos before?
Not in my memory. As is obvious on here though not yet in the wider electorate a vote for 'Leave' will cause a maelstrom never before seen in British politics. Not in relation to Europe but in relation to governance at Westminster.
I wonder whether those backing Leave have priced this in? It's likely to become obvious this week-end
I think that we get chaos either way with the referendum, just different cocktails of chaos.
A Remain vote is probably the most effective way to destroy the Conservative party though, and to keep Labour united.
Remain would leave all kinds of problems for Labour in relation to many of their own core vote. You've got some of them wanting Cameron to use the EU Presidency to try and get some restrictions on free movement.
A REMAIN vote poses massive medium to long term problems for Labour. Each problem that Labour voters experience will get connected with the Labour MPs being for REMAIN. It will just fester away leading to then either abstaining or voting for someone else. Just like in Scotland.
Priti Patel has been promoted to the role of chancellor in waiting by some commentators, I suggest that those people listen to her interview with Mishal Husain for the Today programme on Radio 4 on Tuesday. Failing that please read John Crace's withering analysis of her performance headed 'Let me be clear:Priti clearly isn't.' Her only answer to difficult questions was to use the vacant mantra 'let me be clear' or 'take back control.'
As a Labour voter I am no fan of Osborne but at least he sounded lucid and authoritative this morning.
AA Gill's brilliant essay Sunday Times June 12th is also worth reading and puts into words what many of us have been thinking; If we leave the European Union we risk a backward move to a time when, 'getting our country back,' means a politics built upon nostalgia and a hatred of Johnny foreigner, no basis for building a vibrant culture and economy.
I will be voting to Remain on June 23rd.
Can you post the Gill essay? I would like to read it.
Time to come clean - despite my "leave" appearance I've been considering a remain vote as I think there will certainly be some damage to the economy should we leave. However the remain campaign has made my blood boil - Anyway
A friend of mine needed to decide his postal vote today, and similiarly couldn't decide (He was leaning "leave"). I'm now actively paired with him and the gods have decided I'll be voting "Leave" and he will be voting "Remain". I've videoed the decision and coin flip, and won't betray my friend.
And that's why Remain will win.
Nah! That means it's going to be a tie.
What I find fascinating is that the pound hasn't tanked over the last few days as the polls have shifted. It does however appear that the old poll OGH referred to on Monday produced a spike in the market. So it appears the markets had already factored in that the race was much closer to 50-50. They must be commissioning their own polls of course. And the pound has been falling for weeks. Seeing how it shifts from now to next Thursday might be a good indicator of the polls to come.
The betting markets like the Osborne gambit. Leave drifting.
I think it will work. In the end if you've got a Chancellor with a can of gas and a lighter going mental in the Treasury, and threatening to burn the place down, you have to calm him down, and give him what he wants.
Once the referendum is won he will be seized, and pilloried, he will be loathed and reviled beyond anything we've seen so far.
Cameron and Osborne have utterly destroyed their reputations and careers, and poisoned the pro-EU centre ground of the Tory party. I predict the party that evolves from this will be even more fiercely eurosceptic. So the issue will return very quickly.
The Blairites and Cameroons would be fools not to do a deal after this. A Europhile centrist pro-market party of the centre ground would be a powerful electoral force.
I'll be posting updates on my modelling of implications of party shares for a future general election on the same boundaries as 2015.
As an aside, given we have our vote models, I'd be very surprised if we dont basically know by 1:30. The exception being if it's very, very close. But I'm now expecting a fairly clear Leave win.
(But reserve the option to change my mind at least four more times.)
The betting markets like the Osborne gambit. Leave drifting.
I think it will work. In the end if you've got a Chancellor with a can of gas and a lighter going mental in the Treasury, and threatening to burn the place down, you have to calm him down, and give him what he wants.
Once the referendum is won he will be seized, and pilloried, he will be loathed and reviled beyond anything we've seen so far.
Cameron and Osborne have utterly destroyed their reputations and careers, and poisoned the pro-EU centre ground of the Tory party. I predict the party that evolves from this will be even more fiercely eurosceptic. So the issue will return very quickly.
It's hard to disagree with that.
Agreed.
Anyone seen the TV series Rome where Caesar is murdered on the floor of the Roman senate by multiple stabbings by multiple people?
That is what is going to happen *metaphorically* to George Osborne.
The betting markets like the Osborne gambit. Leave drifting.
I think it will work. In the end if you've got a Chancellor with a can of gas and a lighter going mental in the Treasury, and threatening to burn the place down, you have to calm him down, and give him what he wants.
Once the referendum is won he will be seized, and pilloried, he will be loathed and reviled beyond anything we've seen so far.
Cameron and Osborne have utterly destroyed their reputations and careers, and poisoned the pro-EU centre ground of the Tory party. I predict the party that evolves from this will be even more fiercely eurosceptic. So the issue will return very quickly.
The Blairites and Cameroons would be fools not to do a deal after this. A Europhile centrist pro-market party of the centre ground would be a powerful electoral force.
The irony of that won't be missed by the Lib Dems.
@georgeeaton: Martin Wolf in today's FT: "Anybody who believes the leaders of the Brexit campaign could manage all this is surely taking illegal drugs."
The betting markets like the Osborne gambit. Leave drifting.
I was going to vote "remain" (with no pairing) yesterday.
I think lots of undecideds will make a similar choice. The idea that we will step into the unknown, withdrawing from the biggest single market on Earth is [select adjective here].
people who pick up a paper or have a moderate intake of TV news might be thinking that leave is the safer option compared to the chaos going on around them.
Betfair seems suddenly a bit more convinced by Remain in the last 30 minutes, quite a sharp price move. Don't see any factual basis for it, wonder what's happening
A familiar pattern is developing on the Betfair market. In the absence of any polls the market interprets all noise as a positive for Remain. The most important information going forward is when can we expect the next poll?
Ipsos Mori and Survation tomorrow
My guess is that Ipsos Mori will produce a small lead for Remain, and Survation a small lead for Leave.
My friend is a 30 (I think) AB graduate in Manchester btw should anyone worry about the demographics of my pairing.
That's identical to me! My university friends who settled in London are overwhelmingly remain but my grammar schoolfriends and their partners who still live in London are more for leave.
Betfair seems suddenly a bit more convinced by Remain in the last 30 minutes, quite a sharp price move. Don't see any factual basis for it, wonder what's happening
A familiar pattern is developing on the Betfair market. In the absence of any polls the market interprets all noise as a positive for Remain. The most important information going forward is when can we expect the next poll?
Ipsos Mori and Survation tomorrow
Damm thats enough time to push me out of my average lay of Remain @ 1.51.
I doubt Ozzy's 'Brexit Budget' will change the result (Leave's momentum is just too powerful) but the atmosphere has certainly changed. Post-Brexit, no one is now pretending that we'll all be playing leapfrog together in some kind of bucolic utopia. Whoever's ultimately in charge - Cameron, Boris, Corbyn - it's going to mean a lot struggle and hard slog and nothing to show of it (if at all) for years, possibly decades. The Leave party is finally winding down.
As an aside, given we have our vote models, I'd be very surprised if we dont basically know by 1:30. The exception being if it's very, very close. But I'm now expecting a fairly clear Leave win.
(But reserve the option to change my mind at least four more times.)
If we are going to have a new government post next week can I suggest Alex Salmond and Liz Kendell after listening to the Huffington Town Hall debate. A far more lucid and attractive option that Johnstone and Patell or Cameron and Osborne for that matter. How about a Government of two nations unity?
@georgeeaton: Martin Wolf in today's FT: "Anybody who believes the leaders of the Brexit campaign could manage all this is surely taking illegal drugs."
People who don't think Leavers have the intellectual firepower to make a success of Brexit need to start taking some drugs to expand their minds....
First, thanks for the many kind words following my contribution last night. LEAVE is a coalition of many views and many aspirations probably only united in our desire to leave the European Union and that's a problem which needs to be faced.
REMAIN is also a coalition of many disparate views ranging from the passionate pro-Europeans (a view I understand and respect) and those simply after cheap political points scoring (such as endless jibes at the nickname of a former Mayor of London from one regular poster).
No surprise to see the FTSE rally this morning - a dead cat bounce or something more meaningful ? I was watching Bloomberg last night - much more interested in the Fed meeting and didn't mention our referendum in nearly 30 minutes of analysis and comment.
Why do we need an Emergency Budget if we vote LEAVE ? We are still members of the EU and likely to remain so for at least two years even if we vote LEAVE. The vote begins a process, it doesn't end it. This is, I'm afraid, Project Fear by the now shameless and clearly desperately rattled Chancellor and Prime Minister.
There is no need to cut spending or raise taxes beyond what was proposed in the 2016 Budget. We have a long term deficit reduction plan (apparently) and we simply need to continue with that and avoid kneejerk over-reaction.
Instead, this appalling Chancellor now scares and worries millions of ordinary British people just to save his worthless political skin.
I understand the desire for self preservation but this is absurd and I warmly applaud those Conservative MPs who have stood up and denounced this act of political desperation and cowardice for what it is.
If anyone needs the slightest incentive to vote LEAVE on Thursday week, George Osborne has provided it.
I doubt Ozzy's 'Brexit Budget' will change the result (Leave's momentum is just too powerful) but the atmosphere has certainly changed. Post-Brexit, no one is now pretending that we'll all be playing leapfrog together in some kind of bucolic utopia. Whoever's ultimately in charge - Cameron, Boris, Corbyn - it's going to mean a lot struggle and hard slog and nothing to show of it (if at all) for years, possibly decades. The Leave party is finally winding down.
Yep, we are all going to have to pay. Some of us can afford it. Many, many others are going to see their living standards hit even further. But Boris will get to be PM for a while so it will all be worth it.
Morning all. I've been away walking in the Umbrian hills and drinking some of the remarkably good Umbrian wines. Very nice it was too, since you ask (despite some unseasonal heavy downpours).
<SeanT mode> We ended our trip at this fantastic hotel, a 12th century abbey:
I see that the polls are suggesting the voters may indeed decide to go for economic and political chaos. Interesting times.
It's a bit late to start now, but if you have any pension or ISA stock-market funds, you did remember to keep them internationally well-diversified, I hope. This could be a very, very rocky ride.
It makes no sense to trigger Article 50 immediately after the 23 June vote and before extensive preliminary discussions.
LEAVErs not keen on LEAVing?
We will present a series of bills.
How about a budget to calm the turbulent markets?
HELL NO !!!!!
If you started posting on another forum the average IQ would jump up considerably here.
Leavers are such charmers, especially the foreign resident ones.
Mr Topping opined yesterday that being a foreign residential added perspective and vision to the debate... but only if they supported Remain I will be happy to welcome you to the club when you move to Paris
I doubt Ozzy's 'Brexit Budget' will change the result (Leave's momentum is just too powerful) but the atmosphere has certainly changed. Post-Brexit, no one is now pretending that we'll all be playing leapfrog together in some kind of bucolic utopia. Whoever's ultimately in charge - Cameron, Boris, Corbyn - it's going to mean a lot struggle and hard slog and nothing to show of it (if at all) for years, possibly decades. The Leave party is finally winding down.
Yep, we are all going to have to pay. Some of us can afford it. Many, many others are going to see their living standards hit even further. But Boris will get to be PM for a while so it will all be worth it.
Most of the other developed nations around the world are in the EU.
BOLLOCKS.
The IMF calls 39 economies 'advanced'.....25 of them are in the EU, and some of the others (Hong Kong, Singapore, San Marino, Macau are 'City States' and one (Puerto Rico) effectively part of another advanced economy, the US.....so 25 out of 34 ain't bad.....
It makes no sense to trigger Article 50 immediately after the 23 June vote and before extensive preliminary discussions.
LEAVErs not keen on LEAVing?
Eminently sensible- look at what a balls-up Cameron made of the renegotiation by rushing the whole thing. Covered in Flexcit, of course:
Every effort should be made to foster cordial relations, with attempts made to frame the talks in a positive light. A suitable theme might be that the negotiations are part of the process of improving "Europe", seeking a better and more stable relationship between the UK and EU Member States... one might expect a "charm offensive", possibly with a programme of reassurance visits to European capitals by senior politicians, and even members of the Royal Family.
It makes no sense to trigger Article 50 immediately after the 23 June vote and before extensive preliminary discussions.
LEAVErs not keen on LEAVing?
We will present a series of bills.
How about a budget to calm the turbulent markets?
HELL NO !!!!!
If you started posting on another forum the average IQ would jump up considerably here.
Leavers are such charmers, especially the foreign resident ones.
Mr Topping opined yesterday that being a foreign residential added perspective and vision to the debate... but only if they supported Remain I will be happy to welcome you to the club when you move to Paris
I shall not be moving to Paris, my resignation letter would be written in that instance.
The politics of the aftermath is this. Whoever loses will be vindicated. Mass immigration will continue if we Remain. They'll be some sort of short and medium term economic shock if we Leave.
I think it will work. In the end if you've got a Chancellor with a can of gas and a lighter going mental in the Treasury, and threatening to burn the place down, you have to calm him down, and give him what he wants.
etc
Perhaps he could engineer a run on sterling before the vote? Needs a compliant Governor, but he did appoint him and Carney is signed up.
Most of the other developed nations around the world are in the EU.
BOLLOCKS.
The IMF calls 39 economies 'advanced'.....25 of them are in the EU, and some of the others (Hong Kong, Singapore, San Marino, Macau are 'City States' and one (Puerto Rico) effectively part of another advanced economy, the US.....so 25 out of 34 ain't bad.....
While you (and I) may be technically correct, I do appreciate the nuanced subtlety of glw's argument. Tricky bunch, these Leavers.
Most of the other developed nations around the world are in the EU.
BOLLOCKS.
The IMF calls 39 economies 'advanced'.....25 of them are in the EU, and some of the others (Hong Kong, Singapore, San Marino, Macau are 'City States' and one (Puerto Rico) effectively part of another advanced economy, the US.....so 25 out of 34 ain't bad.....
It's a true mystery how Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the US survive outside the EU.
Morning all. I've been away walking in the Umbrian hills and drinking some of the remarkably good Umbrian wines. Very nice it was too, since you ask (despite some unseasonal heavy downpours).
<SeanT mode> We ended our trip at this fantastic hotel, a 12th century abbey:
I see that the polls are suggesting the voters may indeed decide to go for economic and political chaos. Interesting times.
It's a bit late to start now, but if you have any pension or ISA stock-market funds, you did remember to keep them internationally well-diversified, I hope. This could be a very, very rocky ride.
Welcome back! (Rumour had it you were curled up in a corner somewhere mumbling into a gonk.)
The betting markets like the Osborne gambit. Leave drifting.
I think it will work. In the end if you've got a Chancellor with a can of gas and a lighter going mental in the Treasury, and threatening to burn the place down, you have to calm him down, and give him what he wants.
Once the referendum is won he will be seized, and pilloried, he will be loathed and reviled beyond anything we've seen so far.
Cameron and Osborne have utterly destroyed their reputations and careers, and poisoned the pro-EU centre ground of the Tory party. I predict the party that evolves from this will be even more fiercely eurosceptic. So the issue will return very quickly.
I thought yesterday you called it for LEAVE and before that you had called it for REMAIN. This morning you appear to have returned to the REMAIN side of the fence. When can we expect to have your final definitive decision on which side you believe is going to win this?
Here's a clip of Gideon Hawkins in an earlier rant, warning against standing against open borders on the stockade. He doesn't even mention the Wardrobe Monsters once.
Betfair seems suddenly a bit more convinced by Remain in the last 30 minutes, quite a sharp price move. Don't see any factual basis for it, wonder what's happening
A familiar pattern is developing on the Betfair market. In the absence of any polls the market interprets all noise as a positive for Remain. The most important information going forward is when can we expect the next poll?
The betting markets are as clueless as everyone else.
Those rebel Cons MPs had better get a move on because Dave has told us that he will invoke pretty quickly.
Plus not sure how some of the more strident Leavers (perhaps some on here?) would react to a Leave vote followed by what many would suspect would be some kind of backroom deal to keep us in.
Most of the other developed nations around the world are in the EU.
BOLLOCKS.
The IMF calls 39 economies 'advanced'.....25 of them are in the EU, and some of the others (Hong Kong, Singapore, San Marino, Macau are 'City States' and one (Puerto Rico) effectively part of another advanced economy, the US.....so 25 out of 34 ain't bad.....
It is a completely arbitrary statistic when no two organisations can even agree on a common definition of what developed means or where to draw the line, and it invariably takes a western and capitalist definition.
The politics of the aftermath is this. Whoever loses will be vindicated. Mass immigration will continue if we Remain. They'll be some sort of short and medium term economic shock if we Leave.
Mass immigration will also continue if we vote to Leave.
I also see that VoteLeave have belatedly started thinking about what Leave might look like. It's a curious suggestion they are making: they seem to be suggesting that the period of financial, market and business uncertainty should be extended, by not invoking Article 50 for a considerable time. This suggests that they don't understand what the problem will be - indeed some of them even make the ludicrous claim that 'in the event of a Leave result, nothing will change on June 24th because we'll stil be in the EU'. Well, yes, we will still be in the EU, and nothing will immediately change in terms of rules, regulations, customs procedures, and freedom of movement, but everything will change in terms of business confidence, investment, company behaviour, and even consumer behaviour.
Mr. Pulpstar, interesting post. I did wonder some time ago if couples (ahem, or friends) might vote in cancelling pairs, as happened in the Scottish vote.
Nothing has changed from my early May hypothesis, IMHO.
British voters *as a whole* want to give the UK and the EU a very nasty shock, and then deliver the closest Remain vote humanly possible. So voters will now calibrate themselves back a tad from Leave to deliver it, in my view.
That then puts our EU membership on probation. "One last chance" etc.
I agree the public probably are thinking along those lines, the danger for remain being that tactical voting isn't always guaranteed to work. It's like the Scottish election, with RISE and greens etc saying to split votes, tactically not voting for the SNP, backfired and ended with them losing the majority
The politics of the aftermath is this. Whoever loses will be vindicated. Mass immigration will continue if we Remain. They'll be some sort of short and medium term economic shock if we Leave.
Most of the other developed nations around the world are in the EU.
BOLLOCKS.
The IMF calls 39 economies 'advanced'.....25 of them are in the EU, and some of the others (Hong Kong, Singapore, San Marino, Macau are 'City States' and one (Puerto Rico) effectively part of another advanced economy, the US.....so 25 out of 34 ain't bad.....
It's a true mystery how Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the US survive outside the EU.
That's not the argument. A LEAVEr disputed that most of the developed nations in the world weren't in the EU, when in fact they are.
LEAVE'll be claiming we'll spend £350 million on the NHS next.....
John McDonnell confirms Labour would vote against Osborne's budget. Osborne really is an idiot.
This was pointed out by a lot of us last night... And in any case Osborne would be out of office after Brexit so he'd not be around to reap any revenge on the British people.
The politics of the aftermath is this. Whoever loses will be vindicated. Mass immigration will continue if we Remain. They'll be some sort of short and medium term economic shock if we Leave.
Mass immigration will continue if we Leave also.
and economic shocks if we Remain also, like when Greece or Italy goes t*ts up
Most of the other developed nations around the world are in the EU.
BOLLOCKS.
The IMF calls 39 economies 'advanced'.....25 of them are in the EU, and some of the others (Hong Kong, Singapore, San Marino, Macau are 'City States' and one (Puerto Rico) effectively part of another advanced economy, the US.....so 25 out of 34 ain't bad.....
It is a completely arbitrary statistic when no two organisations can even agree on a common definition of what developed means or where to draw the line, and it invariably takes a western and capitalist definition.
Oh dear.....who to believe?
The IMF, or someone who thinks BOLLOCKS constitutes an argument?
I also see that VoteLeave have belatedly started thinking about what Leave might look like. It's a curious suggestion they are making: they seem to be suggesting that the period of financial, market and business uncertainty should be extended, by not invoking Article 50 for a considerable time. This suggests that they don't understand what the problem will be - indeed some of them even make the ludicrous claim that 'in the event of a Leave result, nothing will change on June 24th because we'll stil be in the EU'. Well, yes, we will still be in the EU, and nothing will immediately change in terms of rules, regulations, customs procedures, and freedom of movement, but everything will change in terms of business confidence, investment, company behaviour, and even consumer behaviour.
Nonsense, the period of uncertainty is NOW. As soon as we get a result, everyone can start making plans again.
LEAVE'll be claiming we'll spend £350 million on the NHS next.....
They don't need to, Remain are doing that for them. Leave probably only said 350m once or twice, Remain have been shouting it from the hills for a couple of weeks and now everyone believes it, or at least believes its a very large number, which in voting terms amounts to the same thing.
Most of the other developed nations around the world are in the EU.
BOLLOCKS.
The IMF calls 39 economies 'advanced'.....25 of them are in the EU, and some of the others (Hong Kong, Singapore, San Marino, Macau are 'City States' and one (Puerto Rico) effectively part of another advanced economy, the US.....so 25 out of 34 ain't bad.....
It is a completely arbitrary statistic when no two organisations can even agree on a common definition of what developed means or where to draw the line, and it invariably takes a western and capitalist definition.
It was Casino_Royale who initially claimed that
"No, they mean the UK becoming a fully self-governing liberal democracy again, just like most other developed nations around the world."
Perhaps you'd better ask him which criteria for a developed nation he is using.
The politics of the aftermath is this. Whoever loses will be vindicated. Mass immigration will continue if we Remain. They'll be some sort of short and medium term economic shock if we Leave.
Mass immigration will continue if we Leave also.
and economic shocks if we Remain also, like when Greece or Italy goes t*ts up
Yep, nothing much will change - except we will all be worse off if we leave. That will have little or no affect on the lucky few, but for a lot of people it will make life even tougher than it is now. If Greece or, especially, Italy go tits up whether we are in or out will make absolutely no difference at all.
The politics of the aftermath is this. Whoever loses will be vindicated. Mass immigration will continue if we Remain. They'll be some sort of short and medium term economic shock if we Leave.
Mass immigration will continue if we Leave also.
and economic shocks if we Remain also, like when Greece or Italy goes t*ts up
Leavers don't care about the economy. They care about sovereignty and immigration.
Comments
British voters *as a whole* want to give the UK and the EU a very nasty shock, and then deliver the closest Remain vote humanly possible. So voters will now calibrate themselves back a tad from Leave to deliver it, in my view.
That then puts our EU membership on probation. "One last chance" etc.
(But reserve the option to change my mind at least four more times.)
Far more likely the closet Kippers split from the Economic Realists
The current budget is predicated on ongoing high levels of immigration from the EU and is aimed at eliminating the deficit by 2020. If we vote to Leave next week we will have voted to significantly reduce immigration from the EU. In order to hit the deficit reduction targets that all Tories are signed up to, therefore, the Chancellor will have to produce a new budget in which additional savings and tax rises are implemented.
Leavers tell us withdrawal from the EU will be worth the financial pain. They are signed up to eliminating the deficit by 2020. I can't see what they are so upset about. Osborne is giving them exactly what they want.
Rare I find myself in agreement with left-winger Tim Worstall, senior fellow of that hive of left-wing thinking, the Adam Smith Institute.
As a Labour voter I am no fan of Osborne but at least he sounded lucid and authoritative this morning.
AA Gill's brilliant essay Sunday Times June 12th is also worth reading and puts into words what many of us have been thinking; If we leave the European Union we risk a backward move to a time when, 'getting our country back,' means a politics built upon nostalgia and a hatred of Johnny foreigner, no basis for building a vibrant culture and economy.
I will be voting to Remain on June 23rd.
How about "Make Britain Great again" ?
I think lots of undecideds will make a similar choice. The idea that we will step into the unknown, withdrawing from the biggest single market on Earth is [select adjective here].
LEAVErs not keen on LEAVing?
Anyone seen the TV series Rome where Caesar is murdered on the floor of the Roman senate by multiple stabbings by multiple people?
That is what is going to happen *metaphorically* to George Osborne.
The enacting of the European Communities Act 1972 (Repeal) Bill at the end of the two year period might be a bit of a clue even for you.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Developed_country
How about a budget to calm the turbulent markets?
HELL NO !!!!!
https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/743015814308200448
<SeanT mode>
We ended our trip at this fantastic hotel, a 12th century abbey:
http://www.sanpietroinvalle.com/index.php
</SeanT mode>
I see that the polls are suggesting the voters may indeed decide to go for economic and political chaos. Interesting times.
It's a bit late to start now, but if you have any pension or ISA stock-market funds, you did remember to keep them internationally well-diversified, I hope. This could be a very, very rocky ride.
Every effort should be made to foster cordial relations, with attempts made to frame the talks in a positive light. A suitable theme might be that the negotiations are part of the process of improving "Europe", seeking a better and more stable relationship between the UK and EU Member States... one might expect a "charm offensive", possibly with a programme of reassurance visits to European capitals by senior politicians, and even members of the Royal Family.
Needs a compliant Governor, but he did appoint him and Carney is signed up.
@James_Macintyre: Exclusive: Cameron, Brown, Blair and Major 'to share platform' in last-ditch attempt to keep Britain in the EU:
http://www.christiantoday.com/article/cameron.brown.blair.and.major.to.share.platform.in.last.ditch.bid.to.keep.britain.in.eu/88405.htm
When can we expect to have your final definitive decision on which side you believe is going to win this?
Iceland = Leave
Here's a clip of Gideon Hawkins in an earlier rant, warning against standing against open borders on the stockade. He doesn't even mention the Wardrobe Monsters once.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o8tz2jhRAC8
I particularly liked this bit:
Article 50 is not the sole lawful means of leaving the EU. If this were the case, Greenland could not have left the EU in 1985, but it did.
For the slow of thinking.....what's the problem with this 'logic'?
Those rebel Cons MPs had better get a move on because Dave has told us that he will invoke pretty quickly.
Plus not sure how some of the more strident Leavers (perhaps some on here?) would react to a Leave vote followed by what many would suspect would be some kind of backroom deal to keep us in.
My money is on a prompt invocation.
Boris Johnson: The EU wants a superstate, just as Hitler did
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/14/boris-johnson-the-eu-wants-a-superstate-just-as-hitler-did/
Other than Dave I can't think of anyone more disastrous to wheel in than Tone.
LEAVE'll be claiming we'll spend £350 million on the NHS next.....
Oh dear.....who to believe?
The IMF, or someone who thinks BOLLOCKS constitutes an argument?
Tough one.....
"No, they mean the UK becoming a fully self-governing liberal democracy again, just like most other developed nations around the world."
Perhaps you'd better ask him which criteria for a developed nation he is using.
The people least willing to lose a penny in dealing with immigration are young, AB, Labour, voters.
Incidentally, yesterday, I complained to IG and Survation their original release time clashed with the England v Ramshaggers match