I think Remain might still scrape home, but only by a small margin. If they do, or if they lose, then rather than blaming nasty Farage, or nasty Gove, or racist voters, or the tabloids, they need to ask themselves where did they go wrong. A year ago, Remain had huge poll leads. What is about their arguments, and/or the EU, that has turned people against them?
Quite so.
Despite the best choreographed campaign of fear I can recall in my whole adult lifetime (that had clearly been months and months in the planning) with big-business, allied governments, international organisations and friendly economists all pitching in Remain have gone from c.30%+ leads last year to Leave having clear leads with less than 8 days to go.
They are still totally baffled as to why. The best answer Remainers can come up with so far is that the population are just ghastly xenophobes.
I think Remain will clinch it but this argument isn't going to go away.
Once this referendum is out the way the more intelligent and self-aware of them might want to do a good deal more thinking as to why.
@rottenborough I wrote last week about how Brexit would be a hammer blow for the Conservatives' reputation for economic competence. The argument today is a foretaste of why.
Nah. It'll all be forgotten very fast. We can all see it for what it is: petulant tantrums because they're about to be kicked out of the nursery.
I can feel a GE coming on at this rate.
Yes so can I. And that's one of the other reasons I suspect Labour voters may vote Leave.
Nah. Two years of the steady hand of Gove at the Brexit tiller, ..
Have the British electorate ever voted for chaos before?
Not in my memory. As is obvious on here though not yet in the wider electorate a vote for 'Leave' will cause a maelstrom never before seen in British politics. Not in relation to Europe but in relation to governance at Westminster.
I wonder whether those backing Leave have priced this in? It's likely to become obvious this week-end
I think that we get chaos either way with the referendum, just different cocktails of chaos.
A Remain vote is probably the most effective way to destroy the Conservative party though, and to keep Labour united.
Well it's either 'chaos' or a straightjacket - IMHO I'll take my chance at POSSIBLE chaos rather than a CERTAIN straightjacket.
Have the British electorate ever voted for chaos before?
Not in my memory. As is obvious on here though not yet in the wider electorate a vote for 'Leave' will cause a maelstrom never before seen in British politics. Not in relation to Europe but in relation to governance at Westminster.
I wonder whether those backing Leave have priced this in? It's likely to become obvious this week-end
It's going to be chaos either way, if it is a narrow Remain the atmosphere in the country and in parliament is going to be poisonous, and the focus of that poison is going to be Dave and George.
If It's Remain, Dave should be brutal to Boris et al. If it's Leave, Dave should resign . I'm with Matthew Parris on this, the Tories have papered over the cracks for decades.
Brexit will not change the issues being discussed in this piece one jot.
The critical point will be the government will not be able to hand wave it away as nothing they can do "because of the EU". The buck will stop with the government, they will no longer be able to sidestep difficult issues as effectively above their paygrade
Have the British electorate ever voted for chaos before?
Not in my memory. As is obvious on here though not yet in the wider electorate a vote for 'Leave' will cause a maelstrom never before seen in British politics. Not in relation to Europe but in relation to governance at Westminster.
I wonder whether those backing Leave have priced this in? It's likely to become obvious this week-end
It's going to be chaos either way, if it is a narrow Remain the atmosphere in the country and in parliament is going to be poisonous, and the focus of that poison is going to be Dave and George.
If It's Remain, Dave should be brutal to Boris et al. If it's Leave, Dave should resign . I'm with Matthew Parris on this, the Tories have papered over the cracks for decades.
Dave can't be brutal with them, he can not appoint them to government positions, that's it. He can't remove or deselect backbench MPs, that is up to the voters and constituency party, and would have no effect until the next election anyway. If he removes the whip, it would be fantastically unpopular in his already divided party, and would just guarantee they vote against him all the time with his tiny majority.
PMQS today could be very interesting. Lab and the SNP could choose to ask helpful questions for Remain or they could just choose knife to Osborne. Or Corbyn could just pick a third way and ask about the postal workers directive again...
I woke up and read this news and saw the instant 57 MPs revolt and am incredulous. I couldnt wait to get to work to read pb and post! Surely this is a massive gamble by George and more and more likely a huge miscalculation. If the 57 MPs grows and Labour join them his position will be untenable.
By trying to get the subject back on to the economy he's made such an outlandish last minute budget out of nowhere surely he is harming his economic credibility and making leave look like the good guys? Can anyone remain or leave tell me why he is doing this and what are the positives for remain?
You have to be kidding me? A self inflicted tonne of extra borrowing?
It worked for Gordon Brown.
And George Osborne. That's why the Brexiteers are infuriated: because a chancellor who's spend six years kicking the can down the road now wants to eliminate a deficit projected to arise in 2019 the day after we vote to Leave. And, of course, because the Remainers here are hailing it as sensible government rather than admitting it's nakedly political.
Have the British electorate ever voted for chaos before?
Not in my memory. As is obvious on here though not yet in the wider electorate a vote for 'Leave' will cause a maelstrom never before seen in British politics. Not in relation to Europe but in relation to governance at Westminster.
I wonder whether those backing Leave have priced this in? It's likely to become obvious this week-end
It's going to be chaos either way, if it is a narrow Remain the atmosphere in the country and in parliament is going to be poisonous, and the focus of that poison is going to be Dave and George.
If It's Remain, Dave should be brutal to Boris et al. If it's Leave, Dave should resign . I'm with Matthew Parris on this, the Tories have papered over the cracks for decades.
Dave can't be brutal with them, he can not appoint them to government positions, that's it. He can't remove or deselect backbench MPs, that is up to the voters and constituency party, and would have no effect until the next election anyway. If he removes the whip, it would be fantastically unpopular in his already divided party, and would just guarantee they vote against him all the time with his tiny majority.
Sorry, "not appoint them to government positions" is quite brutal enough.
I woke up and read this news and saw the instant 57 MPs revolt and am incredulous. I couldnt wait to get to work to read pb and post! Surely this is a massive gamble by George and more and more likely a huge miscalculation. If the 57 MPs grows and Labour join them his position will be untenable.
By trying to get the subject back on to the economy he's made such an outlandish last minute budget out of nowhere surely he is harming his economic credibility and making leave look like the good guys? Can anyone remain or leave tell me why he is doing this and what are the positives for remain?
He is putting the economy to the front of the agenda. A bold move but then this is a political Chancellor. The repost to the 57 will be to explain how they would deal with the shortfall that is accepted by most everyone, even leavers. I have no idea what may happen and agree it could go either way but both campaigns have been a disgrace to the voters.
Anyone who still thinks Cameron is safe from a confidence vote, even in the event of a Remain win, needs to look at just how quickly Steve Baker got his 57 signatures.
Bet accordingly.
I happen to think Leave will now probably win, so the point is moot as Cameron will be gone within weeks in any event.
But if the result is Remain, so a challenge is launched. Fine. Cameron will still win the vote.
Personally, I think Remain will just pip it, John, because I think a Leave result looking a real possibility is now going to drive up Remainer turnout.
However, Cameron is not going to be in full command of his party even if Remain do win.
I think Osborne's head will be the price. If not, a vote might be triggered and I simply don't know what might happen next.
You have to be kidding me? A self inflicted tonne of extra borrowing?
It worked for Gordon Brown.
And George Osborne. That's why the Brexiteers are infuriated: because a chancellor who's spend six years kicking the can down the road now wants to eliminate a deficit projected to arise in 2019 the day after we vote to Leave.
Based on two rather fanciful assumptions.
Firstly that he is still Chancellor if we vote leave, and secondly, even if he was that he could get such an idiotic budget through the Commons with a tiny majority and 50+ incensed party members openly denying him. Its bullshit, and worse, everyone can see its bullshit.
I woke up and read this news and saw the instant 57 MPs revolt and am incredulous. I couldnt wait to get to work to read pb and post! Surely this is a massive gamble by George and more and more likely a huge miscalculation. If the 57 MPs grows and Labour join them his position will be untenable.
By trying to get the subject back on to the economy he's made such an outlandish last minute budget out of nowhere surely he is harming his economic credibility and making leave look like the good guys? Can anyone remain or leave tell me why he is doing this and what are the positives for remain?
Weren't some people complaining that the government hadn't made a contingency plan for Brexit? This is the contingency plan, isn't it?
Have the British electorate ever voted for chaos before?
Not in my memory. As is obvious on here though not yet in the wider electorate a vote for 'Leave' will cause a maelstrom never before seen in British politics. Not in relation to Europe but in relation to governance at Westminster.
I wonder whether those backing Leave have priced this in? It's likely to become obvious this week-end
It's going to be chaos either way, if it is a narrow Remain the atmosphere in the country and in parliament is going to be poisonous, and the focus of that poison is going to be Dave and George.
If It's Remain, Dave should be brutal to Boris et al. If it's Leave, Dave should resign . I'm with Matthew Parris on this, the Tories have papered over the cracks for decades.
Dave can't be brutal with them, he can not appoint them to government positions, that's it. He can't remove or deselect backbench MPs, that is up to the voters and constituency party, and would have no effect until the next election anyway. If he removes the whip, it would be fantastically unpopular in his already divided party, and would just guarantee they vote against him all the time with his tiny majority.
This is why Cameron and co are trying to replace local associatuons with merged "super associations" with CCHQ appointed professional managers. They do not like any power not being in their hands. They will ruin the party if given enough time.
If the IFS is so effing sure that a leave vote will lead to disaster, wtf didn't they think to mention the possible consequence of voting Conservative and getting a referendum on it on their "Election 2015" website? http://election2015.ifs.org.uk/
He wouldn't even get to that point. Too busy dealing with a massive run on sterling.
A 'run on Sterling' would be a GOOD thing. Italy could do with a run on the Lira as well ;-) We have a huge balance of payments deficit. We import more than we can't afford and don't export enough.
Have the British electorate ever voted for chaos before?
Not in my memory. As is obvious on here though not yet in the wider electorate a vote for 'Leave' will cause a maelstrom never before seen in British politics. Not in relation to Europe but in relation to governance at Westminster.
I wonder whether those backing Leave have priced this in? It's likely to become obvious this week-end
It's going to be chaos either way, if it is a narrow Remain the atmosphere in the country and in parliament is going to be poisonous, and the focus of that poison is going to be Dave and George.
If It's Remain, Dave should be brutal to Boris et al. If it's Leave, Dave should resign . I'm with Matthew Parris on this, the Tories have papered over the cracks for decades.
Dave can't be brutal with them, he can not appoint them to government positions, that's it. He can't remove or deselect backbench MPs, that is up to the voters and constituency party, and would have no effect until the next election anyway. If he removes the whip, it would be fantastically unpopular in his already divided party, and would just guarantee they vote against him all the time with his tiny majority.
Sorry, "not appoint them to government positions" is quite brutal enough.
I am not sure his majority is big enough to have too many big beasts standing outside the tent pissing in.
PMQS today could be very interesting. Lab and the SNP could choose to ask helpful questions for Remain or they could just choose knife to Osborne. Or Corbyn could just pick a third way and ask about the postal workers directive again...
I would expect it to be the same as last week. Soft ball questions promoting remain. Remember the HOC comprises approx 480 remain 150 leave. That also raises the question as to what happens post Brexit with such a large remain majority and the ability for the Brexiteers to get the changes they want through the HOC, let alone the Lords.
I woke up and read this news and saw the instant 57 MPs revolt and am incredulous. I couldnt wait to get to work to read pb and post! Surely this is a massive gamble by George and more and more likely a huge miscalculation. If the 57 MPs grows and Labour join them his position will be untenable.
By trying to get the subject back on to the economy he's made such an outlandish last minute budget out of nowhere surely he is harming his economic credibility and making leave look like the good guys? Can anyone remain or leave tell me why he is doing this and what are the positives for remain?
He's trying to move the discussion from figures that are meaningless to most people (N billion here, X hundred million there) to concrete specifics: a Brexit vote will mean an immediate rise in taxes and NHS cuts. Because Brexit doesn't have an alternative government or leader lined up, they can't credibly say "No, our government would do this instead" - all they csan do is what Benedict and other here have don, which is say what as individuals they've rather cut or raises taxes on instead. If Osborne can get the discussion to focus on "Alternative horrible outcomes from Brexit" then Remain benefit.
It's true that it gives Labour great ammunition to say "When in difficulty, the Tories' first thought is to slash the health services and schools and put your taxes up", but right now he's actually not thinking ahead to a future election - he wants to win this thing.
Mr. C, the rise in the FTSE/Sterling is because of Osborne's excellent stewardship of the economy. The decline yesterday was due to the bowel-emptying prospect of us leaving the EU. Do keep up.
He wouldn't even get to that point. Too busy dealing with a massive run on sterling.
A 'run on Sterling' would be a GOOD thing. Italy could do with a run on the Lira as well ;-) We have a huge balance of payments deficit. We import more than we can't afford and don't export enough.
I am going to Italy on holiday with the family in July and have just bought euros, should I have bought lira?
I woke up and read this news and saw the instant 57 MPs revolt and am incredulous. I couldnt wait to get to work to read pb and post! Surely this is a massive gamble by George and more and more likely a huge miscalculation. If the 57 MPs grows and Labour join them his position will be untenable.
By trying to get the subject back on to the economy he's made such an outlandish last minute budget out of nowhere surely he is harming his economic credibility and making leave look like the good guys? Can anyone remain or leave tell me why he is doing this and what are the positives for remain?
He's trying to move the discussion from figures that are meaningless to most people (N billion here, X hundred million there) to concrete specifics: a Brexit vote will mean an immediate rise in taxes and NHS cuts. Because Brexit doesn't have an alternative government or leader lined up, they can't credibly say "No, our government would do this instead" - all they csan do is what Benedict and other here have don, which is say what as individuals they've rather cut or raises taxes on instead. If Osborne can get the discussion to focus on "Alternative horrible outcomes from Brexit" then Remain benefit.
The 57 MPs say that it will never get through parliament though. Unless you think Labour are going to support cuts to the NHS and schools.
Mr. C, the rise in the FTSE/Sterling is because of Osborne's excellent stewardship of the economy. The decline yesterday was due to the bowel-emptying prospect of us leaving the EU. Do keep up.
lol. Of course, silly me...
Must go now as i need to buy some tin foil and beans
Ladbrokes are also running a market on which area will have the highest LEAVE share of the vote, where the Isle of Wight is currently the 3/1 favourite.
I notice that Shadsy's lot have reduced the odds on their "Less than 1% margin of victory for either side" from 12/1 to 10/1. I'm sure this has absolutely nothing to do with my having suggested this as being a value bet a couple of days ago.
Anyone who still thinks Cameron is safe from a confidence vote, even in the event of a Remain win, needs to look at just how quickly Steve Baker got his 57 signatures.
Bet accordingly.
I happen to think Leave will now probably win, so the point is moot as Cameron will be gone within weeks in any event.
But if the result is Remain, so a challenge is launched. Fine. Cameron will still win the vote.
Personally, I think Remain will just pip it, John, because I think a Leave result looking a real possibility is now going to drive up Remainer turnout.
However, Cameron is not going to be in full command of his party even if Remain do win.
I think Osborne's head will be the price. If not, a vote might be triggered and I simply don't know what might happen next.
While I'm still pessimistic, I think there will be a tranche of voters who have never voted before, but will come out to vote Leave. There is one at my workplace; I imagine there will be plenty in safe Labour seats.
In the Scottish referendum, we saw higher turnout resulting in a more C2DE-heavy electorate than ever before. Those voters in this referendum will back Leave.
Betfair seems suddenly a bit more convinced by Remain in the last 30 minutes, quite a sharp price move. Don't see any factual basis for it, wonder what's happening
Anyone who still thinks Cameron is safe from a confidence vote, even in the event of a Remain win, needs to look at just how quickly Steve Baker got his 57 signatures.
Bet accordingly.
I happen to think Leave will now probably win, so the point is moot as Cameron will be gone within weeks in any event.
But if the result is Remain, so a challenge is launched. Fine. Cameron will still win the vote.
Personally, I think Remain will just pip it, John, because I think a Leave result looking a real possibility is now going to drive up Remainer turnout.
However, Cameron is not going to be in full command of his party even if Remain do win.
I think Osborne's head will be the price. If not, a vote might be triggered and I simply don't know what might happen next.
Having done no campaigning myself and thus wholly reliant on the polls, friends, and other anectodal stuff rather than my personal on-the-ground 'take' as it were, my prediction on leave was nothing more than hunch - I would not be at all surprised if Remain does edge it on the day.
Until the last week or so I had been assuming a comfortable yes vote (10% or more) which would have left Cameron in a strong, though not commanding position within the party with the capacity to conduct a reconciliation reshuffle to help reunite the party.
A fractional win would leave him in exactly the position you describe, more at the mercy of events than shaping them. And, yes, Osborne will probably be the victim which the Chancellor, being a cynical realist, recognizes and accepts: he will go quietly.
Mr. C, good idea. Beans will cease to be grown if we leave the EU, and there'll be a 250,000% tariff on tin.
Mr. Putney, any particular reason the Isle of Wight is likely to be top of the Leave table? Fear of getting lumbered with Channel-hopping illegal immigrants?
Anyone who still thinks Cameron is safe from a confidence vote, even in the event of a Remain win, needs to look at just how quickly Steve Baker got his 57 signatures.
Bet accordingly.
I happen to think Leave will now probably win, so the point is moot as Cameron will be gone within weeks in any event.
But if the result is Remain, so a challenge is launched. Fine. Cameron will still win the vote.
Personally, I think Remain will just pip it, John, because I think a Leave result looking a real possibility is now going to drive up Remainer turnout.
However, Cameron is not going to be in full command of his party even if Remain do win.
I think Osborne's head will be the price. If not, a vote might be triggered and I simply don't know what might happen next.
While I'm still pessimistic, I think there will be a tranche of voters who have never voted before, but will come out to vote Leave. There is one at my workplace; I imagine there will be plenty in safe Labour seats.
In the Scottish referendum, we saw higher turnout resulting in a more C2DE-heavy electorate than ever before. Those voters in this referendum will back Leave.
I'm thinking along similar lines. There are plenty of people who haven't bothered voting as their seat is safe for Lab. At this referendum every vote counts.
Mr. C, good idea. Beans will cease to be grown if we leave the EU, and there'll be a 250,000% tariff on tin.
Mr. Putney, any particular reason the Isle of Wight is likely to be top of the Leave table? Fear of getting lumbered with Channel-hopping illegal immigrants?
Weren't some people complaining that the government hadn't made a contingency plan for Brexit? This is the contingency plan, isn't it?
This is only contingency planning in the most general sense, a bit like planning to burn your own house down during the Blitz rather than dig a bomb shelter would be.
You have to be kidding me? A self inflicted tonne of extra borrowing?
It worked for Gordon Brown.
And George Osborne. That's why the Brexiteers are infuriated: because a chancellor who's spend six years kicking the can down the road now wants to eliminate a deficit projected to arise in 2019 the day after we vote to Leave.
Based on two rather fanciful assumptions.
Firstly that he is still Chancellor if we vote leave, and secondly, even if he was that he could get such an idiotic budget through the Commons with a tiny majority and 50+ incensed party members openly denying him. Its bullshit, and worse, everyone can see its bullshit.
I tend to agree here. It is one thing to anticipate a crisis in the event of Brexit and set contingency plans accordingly, it is entirely another to state pretty much categorically that you will precipitate the crisis yourself by breaking out the contingency plans without waiting to see whether there will be an actual crisis!
Betfair seems suddenly a bit more convinced by Remain in the last 30 minutes, quite a sharp price move. Don't see any factual basis for it, wonder what's happening
Perhaps this bit of good economic news, which rather contradicts the Leave claim that all those immigrants are taking our jobs and lowering our wages?
I must say I've never listened to the Today programme but sounds like George's interview today was every bit as bad as Pritti Patel's yesterday. They have substantial listening figures and the undecided voters must be bouncing all over the place.
Time to come clean - despite my "leave" appearance I've been considering a remain vote as I think there will certainly be some damage to the economy should we leave. However the remain campaign has made my blood boil - Anyway
A friend of mine needed to decide his postal vote today, and similiarly couldn't decide (He was leaning "leave"). I'm now actively paired with him and the gods have decided I'll be voting "Leave" and he will be voting "Remain". I've videoed the decision and coin flip, and won't betray my friend.
I woke up and read this news and saw the instant 57 MPs revolt and am incredulous. I couldnt wait to get to work to read pb and post! Surely this is a massive gamble by George and more and more likely a huge miscalculation. If the 57 MPs grows and Labour join them his position will be untenable.
By trying to get the subject back on to the economy he's made such an outlandish last minute budget out of nowhere surely he is harming his economic credibility and making leave look like the good guys? Can anyone remain or leave tell me why he is doing this and what are the positives for remain?
Weren't some people complaining that the government hadn't made a contingency plan for Brexit? This is the contingency plan, isn't it?
Sheesh! A few short months ago, Cameron was saying he "would rule nothing out" if we didn't get some piddling, meaningless changes to benefits for EU migrants. And now we are expected to believe that if he hadn't secured (possibly) those little changes, he was prepared to risk the UK facing economic Armageddon? Seriously?
"‘“Nothing is going to happen if we come out of Europe in the first five years, probably. There will be absolutely no change’" - Stuart Rose, head of BSE.
Mr. Pulpstar, interesting post. I did wonder some time ago if couples (ahem, or friends) might vote in cancelling pairs, as happened in the Scottish vote.
Yes a brilliant plan to tell the electorate that the only thing stopping the Tories being horrid is the EU. I'm sure Labour will forget all about such statements before the next general election.
Some Tory halfwit is probably right now thinking "why don't we say we might have to privatise the NHS if we leave the EU?"
Mr. C, good idea. Beans will cease to be grown if we leave the EU, and there'll be a 250,000% tariff on tin.
Mr. Putney, any particular reason the Isle of Wight is likely to be top of the Leave table? Fear of getting lumbered with Channel-hopping illegal immigrants?
If your bet comes off it'll be a long night.
Presumably because the IoW has shown a high level of support for UKIP. It's interesting that a number of Midlands towns and cities feature in the list.
..... not so much a long night as a long day, especially if it's really, really close and I'm sweating on the Highlands and Islands voting figures!
I woke up and read this news and saw the instant 57 MPs revolt and am incredulous. I couldnt wait to get to work to read pb and post! Surely this is a massive gamble by George and more and more likely a huge miscalculation. If the 57 MPs grows and Labour join them his position will be untenable.
By trying to get the subject back on to the economy he's made such an outlandish last minute budget out of nowhere surely he is harming his economic credibility and making leave look like the good guys? Can anyone remain or leave tell me why he is doing this and what are the positives for remain?
Weren't some people complaining that the government hadn't made a contingency plan for Brexit? This is the contingency plan, isn't it?
So were they lying at the election last year about protecting the NHS or had they not done their contingency planning yet?
Anyone who still thinks Cameron is safe from a confidence vote, even in the event of a Remain win, needs to look at just how quickly Steve Baker got his 57 signatures.
Bet accordingly.
I happen to think Leave will now probably win, so the point is moot as Cameron will be gone within weeks in any event.
But if the result is Remain, so a challenge is launched. Fine. Cameron will still win the vote.
Personally, I think Remain will just pip it, John, because I think a Leave result looking a real possibility is now going to drive up Remainer turnout.
However, Cameron is not going to be in full command of his party even if Remain do win.
I think Osborne's head will be the price. If not, a vote might be triggered and I simply don't know what might happen next.
While I'm still pessimistic, I think there will be a tranche of voters who have never voted before, but will come out to vote Leave. There is one at my workplace; I imagine there will be plenty in safe Labour seats.
In the Scottish referendum, we saw higher turnout resulting in a more C2DE-heavy electorate than ever before. Those voters in this referendum will back Leave.
Colour me sceptical that all these voters will turn out, though.
Time to come clean - despite my "leave" appearance I've been considering a remain vote as I think there will certainly be some damage to the economy should we leave. However the remain campaign has made my blood boil - Anyway
A friend of mine needed to decide his postal vote today, and similiarly couldn't decide (He was leaning "leave"). I'm now actively paired with him and the gods have decided I'll be voting "Leave" and he will be voting "Remain". I've videoed the decision and coin flip, and won't betray my friend.
I like that you decided to cancel each other out rather than both not vote.
Yes a brilliant plan to tell the electorate that the only thing stopping the Tories being horrid is the EU. I'm sure Labour will forget all about such statements before the next general election.
Unfortunately, Labour has spent the whole campaign telling their voters that the only thing preventing the reintroduction of indentured servitude is the EU.
Time to come clean - despite my "leave" appearance I've been considering a remain vote as I think there will certainly be some damage to the economy should we leave. However the remain campaign has made my blood boil - Anyway
A friend of mine needed to decide his postal vote today, and similiarly couldn't decide (He was leaning "leave"). I'm now actively paired with him and the gods have decided I'll be voting "Leave" and he will be voting "Remain". I've videoed the decision and coin flip, and won't betray my friend.
I like that you decided to cancel each other out rather than both not vote.
Anyone who still thinks Cameron is safe from a confidence vote, even in the event of a Remain win, needs to look at just how quickly Steve Baker got his 57 signatures.
Bet accordingly.
I happen to think Leave will now probably win, so the point is moot as Cameron will be gone within weeks in any event.
But if the result is Remain, so a challenge is launched. Fine. Cameron will still win the vote.
Personally, I think Remain will just pip it, John, because I think a Leave result looking a real possibility is now going to drive up Remainer turnout.
However, Cameron is not going to be in full command of his party even if Remain do win.
I think Osborne's head will be the price. If not, a vote might be triggered and I simply don't know what might happen next.
Having done no campaigning myself and thus wholly reliant on the polls, friends, and other anectodal stuff rather than my personal on-the-ground 'take' as it were, my prediction on leave was nothing more than hunch - I would not be at all surprised if Remain does edge it on the day.
Until the last week or so I had been assuming a comfortable yes vote (10% or more) which would have left Cameron in a strong, though not commanding position within the party with the capacity to conduct a reconciliation reshuffle to help reunite the party.
A fractional win would leave him in exactly the position you describe, more at the mercy of events than shaping them. And, yes, Osborne will probably be the victim which the Chancellor, being a cynical realist, recognizes and accepts: he will go quietly.
Agreed.
Personally, I think our relationship with the EU is never going to be the same again following this vote, whatever happens. Things have simply gone too far for that.
I see that as a good thing, though appreciate others do not.
Time to come clean - despite my "leave" appearance I've been considering a remain vote as I think there will certainly be some damage to the economy should we leave. However the remain campaign has made my blood boil - Anyway
A friend of mine needed to decide his postal vote today, and similiarly couldn't decide (He was leaning "leave"). I'm now actively paired with him and the gods have decided I'll be voting "Leave" and he will be voting "Remain". I've videoed the decision and coin flip, and won't betray my friend.
I like that you decided to cancel each other out rather than both not vote.
Time to come clean - despite my "leave" appearance I've been considering a remain vote as I think there will certainly be some damage to the economy should we leave. However the remain campaign has made my blood boil - Anyway
A friend of mine needed to decide his postal vote today, and similiarly couldn't decide (He was leaning "leave"). I'm now actively paired with him and the gods have decided I'll be voting "Leave" and he will be voting "Remain". I've videoed the decision and coin flip, and won't betray my friend.
Time to come clean - despite my "leave" appearance I've been considering a remain vote as I think there will certainly be some damage to the economy should we leave. However the remain campaign has made my blood boil - Anyway
A friend of mine needed to decide his postal vote today, and similiarly couldn't decide (He was leaning "leave"). I'm now actively paired with him and the gods have decided I'll be voting "Leave" and he will be voting "Remain". I've videoed the decision and coin flip, and won't betray my friend.
I like that you decided to cancel each other out rather than both not vote.
My wife is in Dubai on the 23rd is a remainer and she hasn't bothered to get a proxy - so I've decided not to vote.
If any Remainians are also away then I can agree to not vote again if they don't want to bother with a proxy.
When the leavers speak of “taking control”, they mean casting off from our continental harbour into the swell of unregulated global markets in a vessel crewed by Tory mutineers whose competence is scuttling governments not running them.
For the period January to December 2015, the local authority with the highest unemployment rate in Great Britain was Middlesbrough, at 11.1%, followed by Wolverhampton, at 9.9%, and Barking and Dagenham, at 9.8%.
When the leavers speak of “taking control”, they mean casting off from our continental harbour into the swell of unregulated global markets in a vessel crewed by Tory mutineers whose competence is scuttling governments not running them.
When the leavers speak of “taking control”, they mean casting off from our continental harbour into the swell of unregulated global markets in a vessel crewed by Tory mutineers whose competence is scuttling governments not running them.
When the leavers speak of “taking control”, they mean casting off from our continental harbour into the swell of unregulated global markets in a vessel crewed by Tory mutineers whose competence is scuttling governments not running them.
There is a nihilistic streak to a campaign that throws flames at the very idea of institutional independence and professional judgment because mistrust of an inchoate “establishment” spreads faster across scorched earth.
Time to come clean - despite my "leave" appearance I've been considering a remain vote as I think there will certainly be some damage to the economy should we leave. However the remain campaign has made my blood boil - Anyway
A friend of mine needed to decide his postal vote today, and similiarly couldn't decide (He was leaning "leave"). I'm now actively paired with him and the gods have decided I'll be voting "Leave" and he will be voting "Remain". I've videoed the decision and coin flip, and won't betray my friend.
I like that you decided to cancel each other out rather than both not vote.
My wife is in Dubai on the 23rd is a remainer and she hasn't bothered to get a proxy - so I've decided not to vote.
If any Remainians are also away then I can agree to not vote again if they don't want to bother with a proxy.
You have to be kidding me? A self inflicted tonne of extra borrowing?
It worked for Gordon Brown.
And George Osborne. That's why the Brexiteers are infuriated: because a chancellor who's spend six years kicking the can down the road now wants to eliminate a deficit projected to arise in 2019 the day after we vote to Leave.
Based on two rather fanciful assumptions.
Firstly that he is still Chancellor if we vote leave, and secondly, even if he was that he could get such an idiotic budget through the Commons with a tiny majority and 50+ incensed party members openly denying him. Its bullshit, and worse, everyone can see its bullshit.
It's not a credible threat. Imagine Leave win and Osborne/Cameron are still in Downing St pro tem, are they going to heap ordure on themselves unnecessarily?
Time to come clean - despite my "leave" appearance I've been considering a remain vote as I think there will certainly be some damage to the economy should we leave. However the remain campaign has made my blood boil - Anyway
A friend of mine needed to decide his postal vote today, and similiarly couldn't decide (He was leaning "leave"). I'm now actively paired with him and the gods have decided I'll be voting "Leave" and he will be voting "Remain". I've videoed the decision and coin flip, and won't betray my friend.
I like that you decided to cancel each other out rather than both not vote.
My wife is in Dubai on the 23rd is a remainer and she hasn't bothered to get a proxy - so I've decided not to vote.
If any Remainians are also away then I can agree to not vote again if they don't want to bother with a proxy.
The one thing I just can't get over is Cameron's protestations that nothing was off the table and he could vote leave. Surely if leave was going to be an unmitigated disaster, why even offer it as an option, let alone say you might support it.
When the leavers speak of “taking control”, they mean casting off from our continental harbour into the swell of unregulated global markets in a vessel crewed by Tory mutineers whose competence is scuttling governments not running them.
The one thing I just can't get over is Cameron's protestations that nothing was off the table and he could vote leave. Surely if leave was going to be an unmitigated disaster, why even offer it as an option, let alone say you might support it.
That's true. He should never have offered the bloody referendum in the first place. But we are we are. Now he must make damned sure Remain win. Otherwise utter chaos will ensue.
@MrHarryCole: Ashen faced BBC producer tells me their dress rehearsal computer models for referendum night point toward lunchtime Friday for a result.
Really? Surely there won't be recounts? Are some councils that slow at counting votes?
I'm sure there could be recounts in some authorities if it's very close.
Why would an authority do a recount if it had a close result ? The purpose of a recount is to ensure there hasn't been a mistake that impacts the result.
There is no requirement to have winners and losers per regional authority, it's a single national poll.
In the event of a close national vote, there is just as likely to be a 1,000 vote mistake in the tally in a region with a large majority for either side, compared to a tight region.
Have the British electorate ever voted for chaos before?
Not in my memory. As is obvious on here though not yet in the wider electorate a vote for 'Leave' will cause a maelstrom never before seen in British politics. Not in relation to Europe but in relation to governance at Westminster.
I wonder whether those backing Leave have priced this in? It's likely to become obvious this week-end
I think that we get chaos either way with the referendum, just different cocktails of chaos.
A Remain vote is probably the most effective way to destroy the Conservative party though, and to keep Labour united.
Remain would leave all kinds of problems for Labour in relation to many of their own core vote. You've got some of them wanting Cameron to use the EU Presidency to try and get some restrictions on free movement.
The one thing I just can't get over is Cameron's protestations that nothing was off the table and he could vote leave. Surely if leave was going to be an unmitigated disaster, why even offer it as an option, let alone say you might support it.
That's true. He should never have offered the bloody referendum in the first place. But we are we are. Now he must make damned sure Remain win. Otherwise utter chaos will ensue.
No, it won't. But he views it as in his interests to absolutely maximise the *threat* of chaos in the event of a Leave vote (thus encouraging the markets to react accordingly) in order to secure the Remain vote he wants.
The one thing I just can't get over is Cameron's protestations that nothing was off the table and he could vote leave. Surely if leave was going to be an unmitigated disaster, why even offer it as an option, let alone say you might support it.
He thought it was a cost-free, throwaway line and that Remain would win this hands down.
When the leavers speak of “taking control”, they mean casting off from our continental harbour into the swell of unregulated global markets in a vessel crewed by Tory mutineers whose competence is scuttling governments not running them.
First, thanks for the many kind words following my contribution last night. LEAVE is a coalition of many views and many aspirations probably only united in our desire to leave the European Union and that's a problem which needs to be faced.
REMAIN is also a coalition of many disparate views ranging from the passionate pro-Europeans (a view I understand and respect) and those simply after cheap political points scoring (such as endless jibes at the nickname of a former Mayor of London from one regular poster).
No surprise to see the FTSE rally this morning - a dead cat bounce or something more meaningful ? I was watching Bloomberg last night - much more interested in the Fed meeting and didn't mention our referendum in nearly 30 minutes of analysis and comment.
Why do we need an Emergency Budget if we vote LEAVE ? We are still members of the EU and likely to remain so for at least two years even if we vote LEAVE. The vote begins a process, it doesn't end it. This is, I'm afraid, Project Fear by the now shameless and clearly desperately rattled Chancellor and Prime Minister.
There is no need to cut spending or raise taxes beyond what was proposed in the 2016 Budget. We have a long term deficit reduction plan (apparently) and we simply need to continue with that and avoid kneejerk over-reaction.
Instead, this appalling Chancellor now scares and worries millions of ordinary British people just to save his worthless political skin.
I understand the desire for self preservation but this is absurd and I warmly applaud those Conservative MPs who have stood up and denounced this act of political desperation and cowardice for what it is.
If anyone needs the slightest incentive to vote LEAVE on Thursday week, George Osborne has provided it.
Time to come clean - despite my "leave" appearance I've been considering a remain vote as I think there will certainly be some damage to the economy should we leave. However the remain campaign has made my blood boil - Anyway
A friend of mine needed to decide his postal vote today, and similiarly couldn't decide (He was leaning "leave"). I'm now actively paired with him and the gods have decided I'll be voting "Leave" and he will be voting "Remain". I've videoed the decision and coin flip, and won't betray my friend.
Betfair seems suddenly a bit more convinced by Remain in the last 30 minutes, quite a sharp price move. Don't see any factual basis for it, wonder what's happening
A familiar pattern is developing on the Betfair market. In the absence of any polls the market interprets all noise as a positive for Remain. The most important information going forward is when can we expect the next poll?
Comments
Despite the best choreographed campaign of fear I can recall in my whole adult lifetime (that had clearly been months and months in the planning) with big-business, allied governments, international organisations and friendly economists all pitching in Remain have gone from c.30%+ leads last year to Leave having clear leads with less than 8 days to go.
They are still totally baffled as to why. The best answer Remainers can come up with so far is that the population are just ghastly xenophobes.
I think Remain will clinch it but this argument isn't going to go away.
Once this referendum is out the way the more intelligent and self-aware of them might want to do a good deal more thinking as to why.
If it's Leave, Dave should resign .
I'm with Matthew Parris on this, the Tories have papered over the cracks for decades.
The critical point will be the government will not be able to hand wave it away as nothing they can do "because of the EU". The buck will stop with the government, they will no longer be able to sidestep difficult issues as effectively above their paygrade
(*Straitjacket).
Mr. Royale, I still think Remain are favourite, by a narrow margin.
It doesn't exist...
By trying to get the subject back on to the economy he's made such an outlandish last minute budget out of nowhere surely he is harming his economic credibility and making leave look like the good guys? Can anyone remain or leave tell me why he is doing this and what are the positives for remain?
However, Cameron is not going to be in full command of his party even if Remain do win.
I think Osborne's head will be the price. If not, a vote might be triggered and I simply don't know what might happen next.
Firstly that he is still Chancellor if we vote leave, and secondly, even if he was that he could get such an idiotic budget through the Commons with a tiny majority and 50+ incensed party members openly denying him. Its bullshit, and worse, everyone can see its bullshit.
It's true that it gives Labour great ammunition to say "When in difficulty, the Tories' first thought is to slash the health services and schools and put your taxes up", but right now he's actually not thinking ahead to a future election - he wants to win this thing.
Must go now as i need to buy some tin foil and beans
I notice that Shadsy's lot have reduced the odds on their "Less than 1% margin of victory for either side" from 12/1 to 10/1. I'm sure this has absolutely nothing to do with my having suggested this as being a value bet a couple of days ago.
http://www.lbc.co.uk/iain-duncan-smith-live-on-lbc-watch-from-9am-132261
He calls George irresponsible
In the Scottish referendum, we saw higher turnout resulting in a more C2DE-heavy electorate than ever before. Those voters in this referendum will back Leave.
Until the last week or so I had been assuming a comfortable yes vote (10% or more) which would have left Cameron in a strong, though not commanding position within the party with the capacity to conduct a reconciliation reshuffle to help reunite the party.
A fractional win would leave him in exactly the position you describe, more at the mercy of events than shaping them. And, yes, Osborne will probably be the victim which the Chancellor, being a cynical realist, recognizes and accepts: he will go quietly.
Mr. Putney, any particular reason the Isle of Wight is likely to be top of the Leave table? Fear of getting lumbered with Channel-hopping illegal immigrants?
If your bet comes off it'll be a long night.
UK unemployment falls to 1.67 million
UK unemployment fell to 1.67 million in the February-to-April period, down 20,000 from the previous quarter, official figures show.
The fall took the unemployment rate to 5%, the lowest rate since October 2005, said the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
The number of people in work rose by 55,000, with the employment rate remaining at a record high of 74.2%.
Earnings, excluding bonuses, rose by 2.3% compared with last year.
A friend of mine needed to decide his postal vote today, and similiarly couldn't decide (He was leaning "leave"). I'm now actively paired with him and the gods have decided I'll be voting "Leave" and he will be voting "Remain". I've videoed the decision and coin flip, and won't betray my friend.
"‘“Nothing is going to happen if we come out of Europe in the first five years, probably. There will be absolutely no change’" - Stuart Rose, head of BSE.
Some Tory halfwit is probably right now thinking "why don't we say we might have to privatise the NHS if we leave the EU?"
..... not so much a long night as a long day, especially if it's really, really close and I'm sweating on the Highlands and Islands voting figures!
The ABs will wade through blood to vote.
The markets are breathing a sigh of relief.
I don't think that's enough.... prepare ship for ludicrous speed!!!!
Personally, I think our relationship with the EU is never going to be the same again following this vote, whatever happens. Things have simply gone too far for that.
I see that as a good thing, though appreciate others do not.
Vote Remain or we privatise the NHS and the BBC
If any Remainians are also away then I can agree to not vote again if they don't want to bother with a proxy.
When the leavers speak of “taking control”, they mean casting off from our continental harbour into the swell of unregulated global markets in a vessel crewed by Tory mutineers whose competence is scuttling governments not running them.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/15/europe-eu-referendum-brexit-leave-remain
For the period January to December 2015, the local authority with the highest unemployment rate in Great Britain was Middlesbrough, at 11.1%, followed by Wolverhampton, at 9.9%, and Barking and Dagenham, at 9.8%.
Imagine Leave win and Osborne/Cameron are still in Downing St pro tem, are they going to heap ordure on themselves unnecessarily?
http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/i-am-a/journalist/eu-referendum-count
Of course, there could be delays if turnout is particularly high.
Surely it also depends on how close the result is. if it is 51-49 then it will surely take longer to declare than if it is 55-45
This isn't difficult.
There is no requirement to have winners and losers per regional authority, it's a single national poll.
In the event of a close national vote, there is just as likely to be a 1,000 vote mistake in the tally in a region with a large majority for either side, compared to a tight region.
Surely it's national recount or nothing?
Brexit reaction? SACK HIM!
They really are a nihilistic cult
@mikeysmith: SHOTS FIRED! A Leave vessel just hit Remain supporters with a hose
@GreenpeaceUK: Brexit flotilla’s star trawler was involved in £63m fishing fraud >> https://t.co/TT5flMEpcO https://t.co/b80JADLtGA
https://chokkablog.blogspot.co.id/2016/06/thoughts-on-eu-referendum.html?m=1
How wrong he was.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ck-y_ECWEAAUZkr.jpg:large
First, thanks for the many kind words following my contribution last night. LEAVE is a coalition of many views and many aspirations probably only united in our desire to leave the European Union and that's a problem which needs to be faced.
REMAIN is also a coalition of many disparate views ranging from the passionate pro-Europeans (a view I understand and respect) and those simply after cheap political points scoring (such as endless jibes at the nickname of a former Mayor of London from one regular poster).
No surprise to see the FTSE rally this morning - a dead cat bounce or something more meaningful ? I was watching Bloomberg last night - much more interested in the Fed meeting and didn't mention our referendum in nearly 30 minutes of analysis and comment.
Why do we need an Emergency Budget if we vote LEAVE ? We are still members of the EU and likely to remain so for at least two years even if we vote LEAVE. The vote begins a process, it doesn't end it. This is, I'm afraid, Project Fear by the now shameless and clearly desperately rattled Chancellor and Prime Minister.
There is no need to cut spending or raise taxes beyond what was proposed in the 2016 Budget. We have a long term deficit reduction plan (apparently) and we simply need to continue with that and avoid kneejerk over-reaction.
Instead, this appalling Chancellor now scares and worries millions of ordinary British people just to save his worthless political skin.
I understand the desire for self preservation but this is absurd and I warmly applaud those Conservative MPs who have stood up and denounced this act of political desperation and cowardice for what it is.
If anyone needs the slightest incentive to vote LEAVE on Thursday week, George Osborne has provided it.
Only one result counts - total UK (plus Gib...)
http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/a_framework_for_taking_back_control_and_establishing_a_new_uk_eu_deal_after_23_june