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  • Options
    BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    They'll get slaughtered unless they can fill the oil hole.

    But a post-Brexit devalued GBP plugs it for them. Isn't oil priced in dollars? Drop GBP to £1=$1.2 from wherever it was in Sindyref1 (£1=$1.6?) and the sums begin to look better: it's equivalent to a 33% increase in the price of oil.
    The pound will not drop to £1 to $1.2
    If you'd've said in 2006 that in 2016 £=$1.44, people would have laughed at you. But here we are. From £1=$1.44 to £1=1.2 is a drop of about 17%. Drops in GBP of 20% have been forecast post-Brexit.
    By whom?
  • Options
    marke09marke09 Posts: 926

    Did Kevin come back for the 11:30 segment?

    no hes stormed out the building
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,391
    SeanT said:

    A post Brexit iScotland means a frontier along Hadrian's Wall...

    Must...resist...fist...of...pedantry...

    ofuckit

    hadrianswallissouthoftheborderanditsentirelyinengland

    (breathes out)
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,560

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    They'll get slaughtered unless they can fill the oil hole.

    But a post-Brexit devalued GBP plugs it for them. Isn't oil priced in dollars? Drop GBP to £1=$1.2 from wherever it was in Sindyref1 (£1=$1.6?) and the sums begin to look better: it's equivalent to a 33% increase in the price of oil.
    The pound will not drop to £1 to $1.2
    If you'd've said in 2006 that in 2016 £=$1.44, people would have laughed at you. But here we are. From £1=$1.44 to £1=1.2 is a drop of about 17%. Drops in GBP of 20% have been forecast post-Brexit.
    By whom?
    A Ballsian 'So what?' would have been a better argument than a blind assertion that the pound will not drop to $1.2. It's perfectly possible that it will, whether we're in or out of the EU.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,391

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    I tipped this the other day

    Brexit would trigger second Scottish referendum within three years, Alex Salmond warns

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/12/brexit-would-trigger-second-scottish-referendum-within-three-yea/

    Yes. A referendum he would lose. So they will not hold it.
    If the economy goes titsup after Brexit (and AEP admits this), then Scotland will again suffer due to an outcome it did not want and a government it did not elect.

    Why do you think they would lose it?
    Because they would have no viable economy, and no pound. Same as....
    See my remark about how a devalued GBP changes the sums.
    Way off beam.
    Well with eloquence like that, how can I possibly prevail... :)
    Just saving us all some time.... :smile:
    And on that bombshell, I'm off to bed, goodnight...

    (Damn I miss old Top Gear)
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,077
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    They'll get slaughtered unless they can fill the oil hole.

    But a post-Brexit devalued GBP plugs it for them. Isn't oil priced in dollars? Drop GBP to £1=$1.2 from wherever it was in Sindyref1 (£1=$1.6?) and the sums begin to look better: it's equivalent to a 33% increase in the price of oil.
    The pound will not drop to £1 to $1.2
    If you'd've said in 2006 that in 2016 £=$1.44, people would have laughed at you. But here we are. From £1=$1.44 to £1=1.2 is a drop of about 17%. Drops in GBP of 20% have been forecast post-Brexit.
    The £ could head to 1.2 even if we stay in...
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,827
    Floater said:

    ((Dan Hodges))) ‏@DPJHodges 2m2 minutes ago
    Just seen @OwenJones84 on Sky. Good for him. He's 100% right.

    Jones was obviously upset but watching the long segment he is clearly acting like a knob.
    I have heard him do this before on the radio, where he basically started saying not talking to you, at one of the other guests, because he disagreed with their point of view.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,827
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    I tipped this the other day

    Brexit would trigger second Scottish referendum within three years, Alex Salmond warns

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/12/brexit-would-trigger-second-scottish-referendum-within-three-yea/

    Yes. A referendum he would lose. So they will not hold it.
    If the economy goes titsup after Brexit (and AEP admits this), then Scotland will again suffer due to an outcome it did not want and a government it did not elect.

    Why do you think they would lose it?
    Because they would have no viable economy, and no pound. Same as....
    See my remark about how a devalued GBP changes the sums.
    Way off beam.
    Well with eloquence like that, how can I possibly prevail... :)
    Just saving us all some time.... :smile:
    And on that bombshell, I'm off to bed, goodnight...

    (Damn I miss old Top Gear)
    But but but haven't you heard, new Top Gear is a HIT...its a FACT...
  • Options
    BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    They'll get slaughtered unless they can fill the oil hole.

    But a post-Brexit devalued GBP plugs it for them. Isn't oil priced in dollars? Drop GBP to £1=$1.2 from wherever it was in Sindyref1 (£1=$1.6?) and the sums begin to look better: it's equivalent to a 33% increase in the price of oil.
    The pound will not drop to £1 to $1.2
    If you'd've said in 2006 that in 2016 £=$1.44, people would have laughed at you. But here we are. From £1=$1.44 to £1=1.2 is a drop of about 17%. Drops in GBP of 20% have been forecast post-Brexit.
    By whom?
    A Ballsian 'So what?' would have been a better argument than a blind assertion that the pound will not drop to $1.2. It's perfectly possible that it will, whether we're in or out of the EU.
    That's true, and it is also doubly true if someone forecasts it to rise to above $1.60.

    The pensioners I was talking to today have seen enough forecasts to last them a lifetime and take them with appropriate amounts of salt.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,827
    Kevin the Teenager might not be wise to be using the killers father as honest testimony for motivation...

    Father of America's most deadly mass shooter wants top Afghan president job and had TV show where he showed support for the Taliban

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3637968/Father-America-s-deadly-mass-shooter-wanted-Afghan-president-job-TV-showed-support-Taliban.html
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Floater said:

    ((Dan Hodges))) ‏@DPJHodges 2m2 minutes ago
    Just seen @OwenJones84 on Sky. Good for him. He's 100% right.

    Jones was obviously upset but watching the long segment he is clearly acting like a knob.
    I have heard him do this before on the radio, where he basically started saying not talking to you, at one of the other guests, because he disagreed with their point of view.
    It's a variation of mass blocking anyone who mildly questions his opinion
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,827
    edited June 2016
    Douglas Murray is ripping into Owen Jones on twitter. Cliffs "you smeared me & now it's told you so time after you spent so many years excusing islamists ". Not that it matters but is relevant in this spat, both are openly gay.
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    They'll get slaughtered unless they can fill the oil hole.

    But a post-Brexit devalued GBP plugs it for them. Isn't oil priced in dollars? Drop GBP to £1=$1.2 from wherever it was in Sindyref1 (£1=$1.6?) and the sums begin to look better: it's equivalent to a 33% increase in the price of oil.
    The pound will not drop to £1 to $1.2
    If you'd've said in 2006 that in 2016 £=$1.44, people would have laughed at you. But here we are. From £1=$1.44 to £1=1.2 is a drop of about 17%. Drops in GBP of 20% have been forecast post-Brexit.
    In the mid- 1980s the pound fell to barely parity with the US dollar!
  • Options
    scotslassscotslass Posts: 912
    BenedictWhite

    I think you are way off beam on prospects of a second Scottish referendum if Scotland votes Remain and UK votes out. The EU is only one of a number of very powerful forces who would switch sides from the 2014 experience.

    The EU would like nothing better than part of the UK to stay in and offer terms accordingly. Business would flock to that part of the kingdom able to offer guranteed access to the single market. Also the point made by Philip about starting points is a good one. Nor is Sean T's point about a hard border persuasive. The Brexit campaign have been busy telling the Northern Irish that the 1923 Common Travel Area will prevail in Ireland. It would seem difficult not to have the same between Scotland and England!! Salmond kicked off a referendum campaign at 28 per cent of the vote and came within an ace of winning it. Sturgeon is more cautious but has a manifesto commitment on this.

    Finally remember the whole UK body politic will be in total chaos. In these circumstances any party with any plan will prosper. And the SNP are already in a powerful; position.
  • Options
    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    I tipped this the other day

    Brexit would trigger second Scottish referendum within three years, Alex Salmond warns

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/12/brexit-would-trigger-second-scottish-referendum-within-three-yea/

    Yes. A referendum he would lose. So they will not hold it.
    If the economy goes titsup after Brexit (and AEP admits this), then Scotland will again suffer due to an outcome it did not want and a government it did not elect.

    Why do you think they would lose it?
    Because they would have no viable economy, and no pound. Same as....
    See my remark about how a devalued GBP changes the sums.
    Way off beam.
    Well with eloquence like that, how can I possibly prevail... :)
    Just saving us all some time.... :smile:
    And on that bombshell, I'm off to bed, goodnight...

    (Damn I miss old Top Gear)
    But but but haven't you heard, new Top Gear is a HIT...its a FACT...
    Just got the series 22 dvds today - just relived the Patagonian trip and the last episode. Broughton Hall is near my home in Yorkshire so it was a bit special.

    The new one has a ways to go to be anything like a hit.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Tim_B said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    I tipped this the other day

    Brexit would trigger second Scottish referendum within three years, Alex Salmond warns

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/12/brexit-would-trigger-second-scottish-referendum-within-three-yea/

    Yes. A referendum he would lose. So they will not hold it.
    If the economy goes titsup after Brexit (and AEP admits this), then Scotland will again suffer due to an outcome it did not want and a government it did not elect.

    Why do you think they would lose it?
    Because they would have no viable economy, and no pound. Same as....
    See my remark about how a devalued GBP changes the sums.
    Way off beam.
    Well with eloquence like that, how can I possibly prevail... :)
    Just saving us all some time.... :smile:
    And on that bombshell, I'm off to bed, goodnight...

    (Damn I miss old Top Gear)
    But but but haven't you heard, new Top Gear is a HIT...its a FACT...
    Just got the series 22 dvds today - just relived the Patagonian trip and the last episode. Broughton Hall is near my home in Yorkshire so it was a bit special.

    The new one has a ways to go to be anything like a hit.
    We're relying on Heidi to advise us on who'll win re Brexit.
  • Options
    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    edited June 2016
    Unfortunately this guy who committed the attacks in Orlando wasn't just investigated for a few interesting comments to colleagues, some of his associations are notable. One of his supposed acquaintances, a fellow Florida resident, was in an Al Qaeda video.....

    The IS claim still isn't quite a full blooded claim with the usual proving points. Suggests either it wasn't a strongly directed job or IS (or whoever) were as surprised as anyone else..I'd wait yet.

    This one may well go down as an intelligence & and also policing failure, How does a guy who was investigated still hold a firearms licence? They could have found some trumped up reason to revoke it.

    Europe & the UK.. keep watching
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,297
    edited June 2016
    scotslass said:

    BenedictWhite

    I think you are way off beam on prospects of a second Scottish referendum if Scotland votes Remain and UK votes out. The EU is only one of a number of very powerful forces who would switch sides from the 2014 experience.

    The EU would like nothing better than part of the UK to stay in and offer terms accordingly. Business would flock to that part of the kingdom able to offer guranteed access to the single market. Also the point made by Philip about starting points is a good one. Nor is Sean T's point about a hard border persuasive. The Brexit campaign have been busy telling the Northern Irish that the 1923 Common Travel Area will prevail in Ireland. It would seem difficult not to have the same between Scotland and England!! Salmond kicked off a referendum campaign at 28 per cent of the vote and came within an ace of winning it. Sturgeon is more cautious but has a manifesto commitment on this.

    Finally remember the whole UK body politic will be in total chaos. In these circumstances any party with any plan will prosper. And the SNP are already in a powerful; position.

    Scotland would have to accept the Euro, not the pound. How many Scots will accept that?
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    PlatoSaid said:

    Tim_B said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    I tipped this the other day

    Brexit would trigger second Scottish referendum within three years, Alex Salmond warns

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/12/brexit-would-trigger-second-scottish-referendum-within-three-yea/

    Yes. A referendum he would lose. So they will not hold it.
    If the economy goes titsup after Brexit (and AEP admits this), then Scotland will again suffer due to an outcome it did not want and a government it did not elect.

    Why do you think they would lose it?
    Because they would have no viable economy, and no pound. Same as....
    See my remark about how a devalued GBP changes the sums.
    Way off beam.
    Well with eloquence like that, how can I possibly prevail... :)
    Just saving us all some time.... :smile:
    And on that bombshell, I'm off to bed, goodnight...

    (Damn I miss old Top Gear)
    But but but haven't you heard, new Top Gear is a HIT...its a FACT...
    Just got the series 22 dvds today - just relived the Patagonian trip and the last episode. Broughton Hall is near my home in Yorkshire so it was a bit special.

    The new one has a ways to go to be anything like a hit.
    We're relying on Heidi to advise us on who'll win re Brexit.
    We've just received our new puppy to fill the hole left by poor Zopher's untimely demise. Fionn, a bouncing 25lb 8-week old German Shepherd boy puppy, with all the mayhem and destruction that implies. He loves everyone, so will be no use in predicting the referendum result.

    TimB, will be posting pix on Facebook soon ...
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited June 2016
    David Frum
    Bangladesh arrests 3,000+ Islamic militants in effort to stop murderous attacks on secularists & gays
  • Options
    John_N4John_N4 Posts: 553
    That football versus referendum poll result is surprising and significant. Betfair are offering a turnout over 70% (in three separate bets) of about evens. That's got to be value.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,827
    PlatoSaid said:

    David Frum
    Bangladesh arrests 3,000+ Islamic militants in effort to stop murderous attacks on secularists & gays

    Only 3000....clearly a niche problem...
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    MTimT said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Tim_B said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    I tipped this the other day

    Brexit would trigger second Scottish referendum within three years, Alex Salmond warns

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/12/brexit-would-trigger-second-scottish-referendum-within-three-yea/

    Yes. A referendum he would lose. So they will not hold it.
    If the economy goes titsup after Brexit (and AEP admits this), then Scotland will again suffer due to an outcome it did not want and a government it did not elect.

    Why do you think they would lose it?
    Because they would have no viable economy, and no pound. Same as....
    See my remark about how a devalued GBP changes the sums.
    Way off beam.
    Well with eloquence like that, how can I possibly prevail... :)
    Just saving us all some time.... :smile:
    And on that bombshell, I'm off to bed, goodnight...

    (Damn I miss old Top Gear)
    But but but haven't you heard, new Top Gear is a HIT...its a FACT...
    Just got the series 22 dvds today - just relived the Patagonian trip and the last episode. Broughton Hall is near my home in Yorkshire so it was a bit special.

    The new one has a ways to go to be anything like a hit.
    We're relying on Heidi to advise us on who'll win re Brexit.
    We've just received our new puppy to fill the hole left by poor Zopher's untimely demise. Fionn, a bouncing 25lb 8-week old German Shepherd boy puppy, with all the mayhem and destruction that implies. He loves everyone, so will be no use in predicting the referendum result.

    TimB, will be posting pix on Facebook soon ...
    Awww :love:
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    John_N4 said:

    That football versus referendum poll result is surprising and significant. Betfair are offering a turnout over 70% (in three separate bets) of about evens. That's got to be value.

    Turnout will be below 70% i would put money on that if i was a betting manchild.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited June 2016
    What a strange story this all is.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/06/12/orlando-shooting-suspects-father-hosted-a-political-tv-show-and-even-tried-to-run-for-the-afghan-presidency/

    ...hours before the Orlando shooting, Seddique Mateen posted a video on a Facebook page called Provisional Government of Afghanistan — Seddique Mateen. In it, he seems to be pretending to be Afghanistan's president, and orders the arrest of an array of Afghan political figures...
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,827
    PlatoSaid said:

    What a strange story this all is.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/06/12/orlando-shooting-suspects-father-hosted-a-political-tv-show-and-even-tried-to-run-for-the-afghan-presidency/

    ...hours before the Orlando shooting, Seddique Mateen posted a video on a Facebook page called Provisional Government of Afghanistan — Seddique Mateen. In it, he seems to be pretending to be Afghanistan's president, and orders the arrest of an array of Afghan political figures...

    Definitely sounds like somebody we should instantly believe when he provides the motivation for his sons actions...
  • Options
    ViceroyViceroy Posts: 128
    PlatoSaid said:

    Floater said:

    ((Dan Hodges))) ‏@DPJHodges 2m2 minutes ago
    Just seen @OwenJones84 on Sky. Good for him. He's 100% right.

    Jones was obviously upset but watching the long segment he is clearly acting like a knob.
    I have heard him do this before on the radio, where he basically started saying not talking to you, at one of the other guests, because he disagreed with their point of view.
    It's a variation of mass blocking anyone who mildly questions his opinion
    He blocked me when I had never even quoted him - and he didn't even follow me.

    It's like he goes and searches for opinions he doesn't like and blocks. Very weird.
  • Options
    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    test
  • Options
    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    edited June 2016

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:


    Returning to your views on how much more impressive London is now than in your student days.

    The old, declining London had numerous Conservative voting areas in middle suburbia which it doesn't do now - the Ealings, the Lewishams, the Ilfords, Hornsey, Streatham etc.

    Are your views on how London has improved too much influenced by central London ?

    I'd certainly agree that Kings Cross is much improved these days over what it was in the 1980s and 1990s but you can probably say the same about every mainline railway station and its environs in the country.
    30 or 40 years ago there was no question that New York was the world's premier city with London some way behind, now the two are at least level and London may even be slightly ahead. As for London suburbia there are still a few Tory suburbs about, Havering, Bromley, Bexley, Harrow etc
    I wonder how many Americans would agree that London is the equal of New York.

    Or people from other countries.

    I suspect there's an element of Londoners bigging up their city.

    Tourists consistently prefer London.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/travel/travel_news/article-3108839/London-named-world-s-popular-travel-destination-New-York-falls-five.html

    London is seen as the world's most powerful city

    http://www.cityam.com/226511/londons-just-been-named-the-worlds-most-powerful-city-for-the-fourth-time-in-a-row-thanks-to-its-strong-economy

    London is the world's most connected city


    http://www.webintravel.com/rome2rio-global-connectivity-ranking/

    London most influential city

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/11040489/London-the-most-influential-city-in-the-world-according-to-Forbes.html

    These are all very nebulous, of course, but they do reveal a trend
    Which brings me back to my original point.

    If London is so much better than it was why is it so much worse for the Conservatives.

    Isn't it now a city of extremes - great if you're really rich and great if you're an immigrant from some shithole.

    But for the average person with the average family who wants an average job and an average life with an average house its almost unliveable.

    Its egg-timer shaped rather than egg shaped.

    Its difficult now to imagine all those sitcoms of ordinary families which were once set in London now existing.
    Eastenders! I would be surprised if most of the characters could afford to live in those houses these days in real life.
This discussion has been closed.