Gove is absolutely right on prisons and rehabilitation.
I know but it only takes one prisoner who was given a non custodial sentence instead of a prison sentence to commit a heinous crime for Gove to come under pressure.
My understanding of Gove's prison reforms were that he was looking at things like training and upskilling in prisons to reduce reoffending rates, rather than being soft on sentencing in the first place, no?
He's also looking at not sending first time offenders to prison for short sentences.
Okay, interesting, you know way more about this than I do. My understanding was that it was already bloody difficult to end up in prison anyway for a first offence.
I'm actually in favour of of ideas like weekend prisons that would allow nonviolent convicts to keep their jobs while still being punished.
But rather more interesting than this question, or the Prime Minister’s answer, was the Mayor’s body language. Both while asking and while listening, he wasn’t merely folding his arms – he was practically hugging himself, as if in self-protection. He could barely have looked more uneasy.
Boris expected a gentleman's game of rugby, and a bit of back slapping and a couple of beers in the bar afterwards. Cameron kicked him in the balls. The question is what does Boris do next, to keep any credibility he needs to come out all guns blazing. If he comes out for another round of rugger and gets kicked in the nads again, people are going to start wondering if he enjoys it.
Boris' ambition for the top job and there need to Take on Cameron at some point was well known - I can it believe he did not think Cameron would fight back any other way, he's known to be good with cutting remarks.
Because of another Cameron lie ;-) The one about him being respectful to all sides
Err - what kind of respect does a text message 'bugger off i wanna be leader' merit?
None.
Now lets try this again slowly for the hard of reading. Cameron said he would be respectful to all sides. Boris didn't. Who is the liar?
Oh dear - get over yourself - don't you understand politics?
You clearly don't value integrity, mind you looking at your post I can see why.
Lol - and Boris has so much integrity it's stopping him tucking his shirt in - methinks you're a bit rattled over a bit of H/C nonsense. Pomposity rules.
I could care less about Boris, he is a tool (in both senses of the word!) if he increases the vote for Leave he is useful, if he doesn't, he isnt. Could go either way at the moment.
But this isnt about Boris, my one abiding and overriding criticism of Cameron is his complete and utter lack of principle and willingness to say that Black is the same as White if it gets him what he wants. One can almost imagine that he said
"I will be respectful to both sides, no ifs, no buts. That's a promise we made to the British people. And it's a promise we are keeping."
I suspect that the Referendum margin will be in single figures, whichever side wins. Cameron has to continue with the bluff and bluster that he got a good deal throughout the campaign. There are plenty, even within the Remain camp, who will concede that jars with the reality. And it will be terminal to his credibility. So a new PM sooner rather than later is my assessment.
Therefore the Referendum campaign becomes an extended job interview.
Osborne does look to be badly damaged, from the outside. He was happy to be associated with the renegotiation - until the reaction to it turned very sour. Since then he has hidden away in Budget purdah. Handy, but not if he wants to be seen to still be a serious contender with his MPs. I still don't buy that the arse has fallen out of his chances. He still has a Budget to come. He must now be thinking "how can I win friends?" - so hopefully the red pencil has gone through his proposed pension changes. And much as we think he is disliked out there -and make no mistake, he is a bloody hard sell on the doorstep - his National Living Wage could prove very popular when the new pay packets arrive with a few million voters who maybe weren't a natural pool of support before.
So Osborne is still in play. But is it my assessment that he will be Prime Minister? No - but then, it never was. He may yet surprise - read the runes, then say that he has no intention of throwing his hat in the ring. State his preferred route would be to stay Chancellor and see the job through with the new Prime Minister. Still a power behind the throne, an eminence gris for continuity Cameron - and still preserving his patronage. Advising his network in the Parliamentary party who to vote for. Not someone to piss off....
OTOH, Osborne might take the view that as he's already disliked, he might as well put the boot into private pensions.
I wonder how much the referendum is now on the mind of Osborne as he prepares the Budget? Another Omnishambles could help a kick-the-government Leave campaign.
Maybe he standardises pension income tax relief relief at 25%, therefore being a net gain to 85% of the population - even though most of the media are all in the 15% that would be negatively affected!
85% could potentially benefit, but their benefit would be very small, whereas the loss to the 15% would be very great.
On Boris, given that Cameron declared all-out war on him yesterday, Boris really now has to do the same and take his gloves off if he ever wants to be leader.
I find it sad whenever politics divides a friendship (and this will be forever, for good) but that is tragically the nature of the game sometimes.
Boris must move in for the kill.
I think we got a good clue what'll happen when he tries that yesterday. They shouldn't even be in the same ring. Boris was shown to be the empty paper bag many of us have always thought him to be. Cameron is the surprising one.
Someone shouted "tuck your shirt in" to Boris as he stood up yesterday. He then clasped his arms around the front of his body as if to hide his unruly shirt and looked sheepish.
And then, having been mauled by Dave, he asked an easy-peasy question, awkwardly, and Dave batted it away effortlessly.
Boris is learning that to stand up in the Commons, and be taken seriously, and to be respected and have gravitas and look PM-ish, is not just a case of employing your raffish charm. Because if you do you will look like an idiot and "lose".
Dave is a master, as are plenty of others (EdM, AngusR, not Jezza). Boris got a very effective lesson in this and will need to learn quickly.
However, as an utter clown who has made his name as a clown, this will be impossible.
I think there are many of us in the centre rather jealous that the Tories have Cameron. Whatever happens to him at the hands of the Tory rabble I suspect he's going to end up as one of the most popular politicians we've had and one of the very few able to cross party lines.
The Cameron = Chamberlain meme is as foolish as it is offensive.
To whom?
To anyone with a proper sense of perspective and history. Chamberlain appeased a deranged dictator who subsequently unleashed mass slaughter on Europe, rained bombs down on British cities and ordered the extermination of millions of Jews.
Someone shouted "tuck your shirt in" to Boris as he stood up yesterday. He then clasped his arms around the front of his body as if to hide his unruly shirt and looked sheepish.
And then, having been mauled by Dave, he asked an easy-peasy question, awkwardly, and Dave batted it away effortlessly.
Boris is learning that to stand up in the Commons, and be taken seriously, and to be respected and have gravitas and look PM-ish, is not just a case of employing your raffish charm. Because if you do you will look like an idiot and "lose".
Dave is a master, as are plenty of others (EdM, AngusR, not Jezza). Boris got a very effective lesson in this and will need to learn quickly.
However, as an utter clown who has made his name as a clown, this will be impossible.
I think there are many of us in the centre rather jealous that the Tories have Cameron. Whatever happens to him at the hands of the Tory rabble I suspect he's going to end up as one of the most popular politicians we've had and one of the very few able to cross party lines.
I don't think that Cameron will ever be popular. He remains an enigma that is hard to warm to. Hard for anyone to hate either. The Cameron = Chamberlain meme is as foolish as it is offensive.
Given how poor he is and how he is a duplicitous lying traitor I'm very pleased that he won't ever make it to PM, let alone PM for successive terms.
Someone shouted "tuck your shirt in" to Boris as he stood up yesterday. He then clasped his arms around the front of his body as if to hide his unruly shirt and looked sheepish.
And then, having been mauled by Dave, he asked an easy-peasy question, awkwardly, and Dave batted it away effortlessly.
Boris is learning that to stand up in the Commons, and be taken seriously, and to be respected and have gravitas and look PM-ish, is not just a case of employing your raffish charm. Because if you do you will look like an idiot and "lose".
Dave is a master, as are plenty of others (EdM, AngusR, not Jezza). Boris got a very effective lesson in this and will need to learn quickly.
However, as an utter clown who has made his name as a clown, this will be impossible.
Indeed, as much as I like the fellow, and thank him for joining Leave, he just isn't leadership or PM material.
Gove isn't either. IDS... nope. So from the leading Leavers that leaves Grayling or Patel.
I suspect that the party will go for a unifying candidate, one from either side of this European split - look out for a Cabinet member who clearly is only softly supporting Leave or Remain.
Yes, the unifying figure after a close and bitter referendum battle is going to be someone who's kept their shirt reasonably dry during the campaign. Watch for whoever in the cabinet is keeping their head down for the next few months, only surfacing to talk about things other than Europe.
Mr. Indigo, you're an intelligent man. Please don't write such tosh.
"I could care less" is an intellectually vacant expression. It means the opposite of what it purports to mean. Perhaps only pre-prepared is dafter.
F1: day 2 of the first test. Odds on the BBC livefeed getting giggly over times, and occasionally remembering to point out that they're irrelevant? Probably 1/1000.
Of course, if they hadn't let their technical expert go he could've actually made some intelligent, insightful comments.
On Boris, given that Cameron declared all-out war on him yesterday, Boris really now has to do the same and take his gloves off if he ever wants to be leader.
I find it sad whenever politics divides a friendship (and this will be forever, for good) but that is tragically the nature of the game sometimes.
Boris must move in for the kill.
In my experience, and it's at a much lower level, there are very few true friendships in politics.
One obvious example is Cameron and Osborne. If Cameron can leave matters so that Osborne is the inevitable choice and if Osborne wants that he will. Given Cameron's tendency to win this is not a factor to be underestimated.
I'm sorry David, but in your own words Osborne is a Mandelson figure - devious, dabbling and distrusted. He's the back of house guy who will never make it on the big stage.
It's very hard to see how Osborne gets to the leadership from here. As Alastair says, his only chance is a big Remain win and that looks very improbable. The Tories are also going to see (or not, to be more precise) the real Boris over the coming months - the one that does not do detail, scrutiny or debate. He is not ministerial, let alone prime ministerial material.
We have long been told on here that there is no depth or inspiration on the Labour benches. That may well be true. But it's a struggle to see where it is on the Tory benches either.
Tbh it's hard to see any emergent leader on either side atm.
Setting aside the Tory ferret fight, I was disappointed to see Boris come out for Leave, I'd rather he;d closed establishment ranks and then we could be up for the long overdue bust up across all the parties and a political realignment of some sort.
As it is 2020 looks like being a line up of the unelectable
I'm hearing we will get a PSOE + C coalition announced in Spain this week, and perhaps as early as tomorrow.
Ditto. But it will be very fragile and dependent on PP abstentions. The plan may be to give it a few months and then go to the country again. A lot of the polls suggest that both PSOE and Cs would get more votes. Podemos is gong to be a real pain. PP needs a new leader.
Gove is intelligent and combatative. He also is quite a loyalist, agreeing to move when he was becoming an issue at Education for example. His move to Leader of the House also will have kept him in contact with the MPs. The question remains as to whether he actually wants the job. I am not convinced.
Perhaps you're being charitable. Revenge is a dish best seved cold and though Gove appeared to take his sacking with good grace I've always thought it unlikely.
Remember he was being asked to lay down his career for no other reason than Cameron's focus groups found him unattractive. Who wouldn't be offended?
And there's his wife Daily Mail columist Sarah Vine. A person of such venality that even Michael Portillo was shocked at her personal attack on Ed Milliband's wife. Is it really credible that this Lady Macbeth would have allowed the career they had built up together to wither without a whimper?
Gove was loyal enough to move without too much protest when he realised that his prominence was damaging the party. The policy carries on under Morgan after all, indeed the allegations were that Gove continued to be pulling the strings. Gove may be that rarity, a politician that cares more for the implementation of policy than for personal advancement.
I cannot see myself voting for any of the proposed contenders. They differ only in their repulsiveness.
This summer Corbyn needs to go and be replaced by someone who can exploit the Tory splits. If the Cameroons get defeated by the swivel eyed loons then suddenly the election is there for the taking.
Is that really true about Morgan though? I've read on here that she's a socialist.
Nicky Morgan’s answer, it seems, is that we need to promote tolerance of beliefs and ideas even if we strongly disapprove of them. So where does that leave us? Will schools have to promote tolerance of the beliefs and actions of ISIS or Boko Haram in the cause of the new tolerance agenda put together by a coven of liberal fascists at the Department for Education?
Gove is intelligent and combatative. He also is quite a loyalist, agreeing to move when he was becoming an issue at Education for example. His move to Leader of the House also will have kept him in contact with the MPs. The question remains as to whether he actually wants the job. I am not convinced.
Perhaps you're being charitable. Revenge is a dish best seved cold and though Gove appeared to take his sacking with good grace I've always thought it unlikely.
Remember he was being asked to lay down his career for no other reason than Cameron's focus groups found him unattractive. Who wouldn't be offended?
And there's his wife Daily Mail columist Sarah Vine. A person of such venality that even Michael Portillo was shocked at her personal attack on Ed Milliband's wife. Is it really credible that this Lady Macbeth would have allowed the career they had built up together to wither without a whimper?
Gove was loyal enough to move without too much protest when he realised that his prominence was damaging the party. The policy carries on under Morgan after all, indeed the allegations were that Gove continued to be pulling the strings. Gove may be that rarity, a politician that cares more for the implementation of policy than for personal advancement.
I cannot see myself voting for any of the proposed contenders. They differ only in their repulsiveness.
This summer Corbyn needs to go and be replaced by someone who can exploit the Tory splits. If the Cameroons get defeated by the swivel eyed loons then suddenly the election is there for the taking.
Charming. Somehow I doubt you'll plump for Corbyn.
I am in a safe seat so it matters little. I would consider voting Labour though if there was a good local candidate from the right of the party.
I would have thought that what happened to Labour in Scotland and to the LDs in England last year would have killed off the meme of the "safe seat", which is safe only as long as the voters there want it to be.
Someone shouted "tuck your shirt in" to Boris as he stood up yesterday. He then clasped his arms around the front of his body as if to hide his unruly shirt and looked sheepish.
And then, having been mauled by Dave, he asked an easy-peasy question, awkwardly, and Dave batted it away effortlessly.
Boris is learning that to stand up in the Commons, and be taken seriously, and to be respected and have gravitas and look PM-ish, is not just a case of employing your raffish charm. Because if you do you will look like an idiot and "lose".
Dave is a master, as are plenty of others (EdM, AngusR, not Jezza). Boris got a very effective lesson in this and will need to learn quickly.
However, as an utter clown who has made his name as a clown, this will be impossible.
I think there are many of us in the centre rather jealous that the Tories have Cameron. Whatever happens to him at the hands of the Tory rabble I suspect he's going to end up as one of the most popular politicians we've had and one of the very few able to cross party lines.
The Cameron = Chamberlain meme is as foolish as it is offensive.
To whom?
To anyone with a proper sense of perspective and history. Chamberlain appeased a deranged dictator who subsequently unleashed mass slaughter on Europe, rained bombs down on British cities and ordered the extermination of millions of Jews.
This should not really need pointing out.
Fatuous. The level of derangement of the correspondent does not affect the negotiating skills or lack thereof of the principle.
I suspect that the Referendum margin will be in single figures, whichever side wins. Cameron has to continue with the bluff and bluster that he got a good deal throughout the campaign. There are plenty, even within the Remain camp, who will concede that jars with the reality. And it will be terminal to his credibility. So a new PM sooner rather than later is my assessment.
Therefore the Referendum campaign becomes an extended job interview.
Osborne does look to be badly damaged, from the outside. He was happy to be associated with the renegotiation - until the reaction to it turned very sour. Since then he has hidden away in Budget purdah. Handy, but not if he wants to be seen to still be a serious contender with his MPs. I still don't buy that the arse has fallen out of his chances. He still has a Budget to come. He must now be thinking "how can I win friends?" - so hopefully the red pencil has gone through his proposed pension changes. And much as we think he is disliked out there -and make no mistake, he is a bloody hard sell on the doorstep - his National Living Wage could prove very popular when the new pay packets arrive with a few million voters who maybe weren't a natural pool of support before.
So Osborne is still in play. But is it my assessment that he will be Prime Minister? No - but then, it never was. He may yet surprise - read the runes, then say that he has no intention of throwing his hat in the ring. State his preferred route would be to stay Chancellor and see the job through with the new Prime Minister. Still a power behind the throne, an eminence gris for continuity Cameron - and still preserving his patronage. Advising his network in the Parliamentary party who to vote for. Not someone to piss off....
OTOH, Osborne might take the view that as he's already disliked, he might as well put the boot into private pensions.
I wonder how much the referendum is now on the mind of Osborne as he prepares the Budget? Another Omnishambles could help a kick-the-government Leave campaign.
Maybe he standardises pension income tax relief relief at 25%, therefore being a net gain to 85% of the population - even though most of the media are all in the 15% that would be negatively affected!
85% could potentially benefit, but their benefit would be very small, whereas the loss to the 15% would be very great.
What would the gain be for a 15% cont on 33k salary ?
Given we're probably looking at a very accelerated timeline, Gove seems the most likely. There's no space for drawn out positioning running up to 2018.
I'm still a bit in shock over yesterday, I never expected such a mauling from Cameron. It's a terrible misjudgement, and unnecessarily alienated many die hard Cameroons.
The next leader needs to be one who can: 1: Accept the result of the referendum (whatever it is) and move on. 2: Unite the party back together. 3: Deal with the economy. 4: Beat the Labour Party at the election.
Gove is absolutely right on prisons and rehabilitation.
I know but it only takes one prisoner who was given a non custodial sentence instead of a prison sentence to commit a heinous crime for Gove to come under pressure.
My understanding of Gove's prison reforms were that he was looking at things like training and upskilling in prisons to reduce reoffending rates, rather than being soft on sentencing in the first place, no?
He's also looking at not sending first time offenders to prison for short sentences.
Okay, interesting, you know way more about this than I do. My understanding was that it was already bloody difficult to end up in prison anyway for a first offence.
I'm actually in favour of of ideas like weekend prisons that would allow nonviolent convicts to keep their jobs while still being punished.
In what world do criminals keep their jobs?
Is that not the problem?
As an example, surely it's better to give a guy involved in a bar fight a nightly curfew, weekends in prison for a year and alcohol and aggression councelling, than lock him up for three months where he loses his job and gets to meet all sorts of unsavoury characters that will only see him back inside again in short order, ruining the guy's life.
I suspect that the Referendum margin will be in single figures, whichever side wins. Cameron has to continue with the bluff and bluster that he got a good deal throughout the campaign. There are plenty, even within the Remain camp, who will concede that jars with the reality. And it will be terminal to his credibility. So a new PM sooner rather than later is my assessment.
Therefore the Referendum campaign becomes an extended job interview.
Osborne does look to be badly damaged, from the outside. He was happy to be associated with the renegotiation - until the reaction to it turned very sour. Since then he has hidden away in Budget purdah. Handy, but not if he wants to be seen to still be a serious contender with his MPs. I still don't buy that the arse has fallen out of his chances. He still has a Budget to come. He must now be thinking "how can I win friends?" - so hopefully the red pencil has gone through his proposed pension changes. And much as we think he is disliked out there -and make no mistake, he is a bloody hard sell on the doorstep - his National Living Wage could prove very popular when the new pay packets arrive with a few million voters who maybe weren't a natural pool of support before.
So Osborne is still in play. But is it my assessment that he will be Prime Minister? No - but then, it never was. He may yet surprise - read the runes, then say that he has no intention of throwing his hat in the ring. State his preferred route would be to stay Chancellor and see the job through with the new Prime Minister. Still a power behind the throne, an eminence gris for continuity Cameron - and still preserving his patronage. Advising his network in the Parliamentary party who to vote for. Not someone to piss off....
OTOH, Osborne might take the view that as he's already disliked, he might as well put the boot into private pensions.
I wonder how much the referendum is now on the mind of Osborne as he prepares the Budget? Another Omnishambles could help a kick-the-government Leave campaign.
Maybe he standardises pension income tax relief relief at 25%, therefore being a net gain to 85% of the population - even though most of the media are all in the 15% that would be negatively affected!
85% could potentially benefit, but their benefit would be very small, whereas the loss to the 15% would be very great.
What would the gain be for a 15% cont on 33k salary ?
But rather more interesting than this question, or the Prime Minister’s answer, was the Mayor’s body language. Both while asking and while listening, he wasn’t merely folding his arms – he was practically hugging himself, as if in self-protection. He could barely have looked more uneasy.
Boris expected a gentleman's game of rugby, and a bit of back slapping and a couple of beers in the bar afterwards. Cameron kicked him in the balls. The question is what does Boris do next, to keep any credibility he needs to come out all guns blazing. If he comes out for another round of rugger and gets kicked in the nads again, people are going to start wondering if he enjoys it.
Boris' ambition for the top job and there need to Take on Cameron at some point was well known - I can it believe he did not think Cameron would fight back any other way, he's known to be good with cutting remarks.
Because of another Cameron lie ;-) The one about him being respectful to all sides
Err - what kind of respect does a text message 'bugger off i wanna be leader' merit?
None.
Now lets try this again slowly for the hard of reading. Cameron said he would be respectful to all sides. Boris didn't. Who is the liar?
Oh dear - get over yourself - don't you understand politics?
You clearly don't value integrity, mind you looking at your post I can see why.
Lol - and Boris has so much integrity it's stopping him tucking his shirt in - methinks you're a bit rattled over a bit of H/C nonsense. Pomposity rules.
I could care less about Boris, he is a tool (in both senses of the word!) if he increases the vote for Leave he is useful, if he doesn't, he isnt. Could go either way at the moment.
But this isnt about Boris, my one abiding and overriding criticism of Cameron is his complete and utter lack of principle and willingness to say that Black is the same as White if it gets him what he wants. One can almost imagine that he said
"I will be respectful to both sides, no ifs, no buts. That's a promise we made to the British people. And it's a promise we are keeping."
Or maybe I am thinking of something else.
You don't understand politics. But never mind you are mother Theresa.
Gove polls worse than Osborne. If it is Remain Osborne will ensure he takes over on a joint ticket with Javid if it is Leave Boris wins
Glad to see that your views continue, like a graceful ship of state, not to be troubled by either events or emerging realities. In a changing world, HYUFD can be relied upon to repeat his predictions ad infinitem....
I suspect that the Referendum margin will be in single figures, whichever side wins. Cameron has to continue with the bluff and bluster that he got a good deal throughout the campaign. There are plenty, even within the Remain camp, who will concede that jars with the reality. And it will be terminal to his credibility. So a new PM sooner rather than later is my assessment.
Therefore the Referendum campaign becomes an extended job interview.
Osborne does look to be badly damaged, from the outside. He was happy to be associated with the renegotiation - until the reaction to it turned very sour. Since then he has hidden away in Budget purdah. Handy, but not if he wants to be seen to still be a serious contender with his MPs. I still don't buy that the arse has fallen out of his chances. He still has a Budget to come. He must now be thinking "how can I win friends?" - so hopefully the red pencil has gone through his proposed pension changes. And much as we think he is disliked out there -and make no mistake, he is a bloody hard sell on the doorstep - his National Living Wage could prove very popular when the new pay packets arrive with a few million voters who maybe weren't a natural pool of support before.
So Osborne is still in play. But is it my assessment that he will be Prime Minister? No - but then, it never was. He may yet surprise - read the runes, then say that he has no intention of throwing his hat in the ring. State his preferred route would be to stay Chancellor and see the job through with the new Prime Minister. Still a power behind the throne, an eminence gris for continuity Cameron - and still preserving his patronage. Advising his network in the Parliamentary party who to vote for. Not someone to piss off....
OTOH, Osborne might take the view that as he's already disliked, he might as well put the boot into private pensions.
I wonder how much the referendum is now on the mind of Osborne as he prepares the Budget? Another Omnishambles could help a kick-the-government Leave campaign.
Maybe he standardises pension income tax relief relief at 25%, therefore being a net gain to 85% of the population - even though most of the media are all in the 15% that would be negatively affected!
85% could potentially benefit, but their benefit would be very small, whereas the loss to the 15% would be very great.
That is an argument to let the very rich keep a lot. To many of those in the bigger group even a small gain is worthwhile.
Gove is absolutely right on prisons and rehabilitation.
I know but it only takes one prisoner who was given a non custodial sentence instead of a prison sentence to commit a heinous crime for Gove to come under pressure.
My understanding of Gove's prison reforms were that he was looking at things like training and upskilling in prisons to reduce reoffending rates, rather than being soft on sentencing in the first place, no?
He's also looking at not sending first time offenders to prison for short sentences.
Okay, interesting, you know way more about this than I do. My understanding was that it was already bloody difficult to end up in prison anyway for a first offence.
I'm actually in favour of of ideas like weekend prisons that would allow nonviolent convicts to keep their jobs while still being punished.
In what world do criminals keep their jobs?
In a world where you want them to have the chance of a law-abiding future
Gove polls worse than Osborne. If it is Remain Osborne will ensure he takes over on a joint ticket with Javid if it is Leave Boris wins
Javid appears to be a smile on a stick at the moment. Woeful article in the papers at the weekend on his EU decision, and no firm positions on anything that matters, and not an impressive speaker.
Its also the naturalist and the lion joke all over again, it doesnt matter if Gove polls badly, so long as he polls better than Corbyn... and most bits of week old roadkill manage that.
Good article. The Osborne=Littlefinger view is one that hadn't struck me till now, but it may well be that he himself sees himself as a kingmaker rather than a king.
Gove isn't especially unpopular with the public outside the teaching profession. Even lefties feel he's doing a good job on prisons, and agreeable policies to your electorate plus a civil manner goes a long way in politics, as Jeremy has demonstrated chez Labour.
One cautionary note, though: maybe we are being over-influenced by his referendum letter, which was widely admired. It's just one letter, and before that I'm not sure this article would have looked so credible. It's possible that the real future leadership lies with someone who isn't taking much part in the referendum battle at all, and is therefore seen as uncontentious by members - May, perhaps.
My strong suspicion is that the result will be around 60:40 to remain. I'd also be looking at which of the Leave cabinet ministers will be dispensed with in a post-referendum reshuffle and I'd be looking firmly at IDS and Grayling and possibly Villiers although her gender may save her. Gove is too intelligent and his Leave statements have been fairly measured, Priti Patel is a future star plus and her decision won't hurt her, Whittingdale is fairly new in post and has a big job with the charter review that I don't think Cameron would risk upsetting. Anyway back to lurking.
This will come down to the usual calculation of who you don't want outside the tent pissing in. Gove would be lethal on the wrong side of the tent flaps, he is one of the inner circle, he knows where the bodies are buried.
I think it also boils down to the fact that Gove winds the left up and yet is always unfailingly polite about it. He also has a first class brain that you'd want to tap in the service of doing something good. IDS is pretty much done and I can't see what the value of keeping him much longer is and the referendum is as good an excuse as any. Grayling well he's always struck me as a bit dim so I've rarely seen the value of him.
Cameron's reference to the EU as a marriage highlights the problem.
He seems to think it's about having people sharing the same house trying to tell each other what to do, when we just want to be friendly neighbours really.
I suspect that the Referendum margin will be in single figures, whichever side wins. Cameron has to continue with the bluff and bluster that he got a good deal throughout the campaign. There are plenty, even within the Remain camp, who will concede that jars with the reality. And it will be terminal to his credibility. So a new PM sooner rather than later is my assessment.
Therefore the Referendum campaign becomes an extended job interview.
Osborne does look to be badly damaged, from the outside. He was happy to be associated with the renegotiation - until the reaction to it turned very sour. Since then he has hidden away in Budget purdah. Handy, but not if he wants to be seen to still be a serious contender with his MPs. I still don't buy that the arse has fallen out of his chances. He still has a Budget to come. He must now be thinking "how can I win friends?" - so hopefully the red pencil has gone through his proposed pension changes. And much as we think he is disliked out there -and make no mistake, he is a bloody hard sell on the doorstep - his National Living Wage could prove very popular when the new pay packets arrive with a few million voters who maybe weren't a natural pool of support before.
So Osborne is still in play. But is it my assessment that he will be Prime Minister? No - but then, it never was. He may yet surprise - read the runes, then say that he has no intention of throwing his hat in the ring. State his preferred route would be to stay Chancellor and see the job through with the new Prime Minister. Still a power behind the throne, an eminence gris for continuity Cameron - and still preserving his patronage. Advising his network in the Parliamentary party who to vote for. Not someone to piss off....
OTOH, Osborne might take the view that as he's already disliked, he might as well put the boot into private pensions.
I wonder how much the referendum is now on the mind of Osborne as he prepares the Budget? Another Omnishambles could help a kick-the-government Leave campaign.
Maybe he standardises pension income tax relief relief at 25%, therefore being a net gain to 85% of the population - even though most of the media are all in the 15% that would be negatively affected!
85% could potentially benefit, but their benefit would be very small, whereas the loss to the 15% would be very great.
What would the gain be for a 15% cont on 33k salary ?
Contributions are £5000, currently relieved at 20%. Changing to 25% would save him 5% of the £5000, £250 better off.
Gove is intelligent and combatative. He also is quite a loyalist, agreeing to move when he was becoming an issue at Education for example. His move to Leader of the House also will have kept him in contact with the MPs. The question remains as to whether he actually wants the job. I am not convinced.
Perhaps you're being charitable. Revenge is a dish best seved cold and though Gove appeared to take his sacking with good grace I've always thought it unlikely.
Remember he was being asked to slay down his career for no other reason than focus groups found him unattractive and Cameron thought his chances would be better without him. Who wouldn't be offended?
And there's his wife Daily Mail columist Sarah Vine. A person of such venality that even Michael Portillo was shocked at her personal attack on Ed Milliband's wife. Is it really credible that this Lady Macbeth would have allowed the career they had built up together to wither without a whimper?
Roger
why don't you just sod off and join the Tories
you're already backing their cabinet :-)
I'm beginning to worry they're too left wing for me
In the Commons yesterday, Cameron stated that 1 million!!!! finance jobs were in Glasgow and Edinburgh and Leave woud put them at risk. Wrong by several zero digits I'd reckon.
Now lets try this again slowly for the hard of reading. Cameron said he would be respectful to all sides. Boris didn't. Who is the liar?
Oh dear - get over yourself - don't you understand politics?
You clearly don't value integrity, mind you looking at your post I can see why.
Lol - and Boris has so much integrity it's stopping him tucking his shirt in - methinks you're a bit rattled over a bit of H/C nonsense. Pomposity rules.
I could care less about Boris, he is a tool (in both senses of the word!) if he increases the vote for Leave he is useful, if he doesn't, he isnt. Could go either way at the moment.
But this isnt about Boris, my one abiding and overriding criticism of Cameron is his complete and utter lack of principle and willingness to say that Black is the same as White if it gets him what he wants. One can almost imagine that he said
"I will be respectful to both sides, no ifs, no buts. That's a promise we made to the British people. And it's a promise we are keeping."
Or maybe I am thinking of something else.
You don't understand politics. But never mind you are mother Theresa.
We all bow to your greater wisdom I am sure... or perhaps not since I am struggle to remember a post of your that isn't a snide comment, or cheap shot, still takes all sorts I suppose
I suspect that the Referendum margin will be in single figures, whichever side wins. Cameron has to continue with the bluff and bluster that he got a good deal throughout the campaign. There are plenty, even within the Remain camp, who will concede that jars with the reality. And it will be terminal to his credibility. So a new PM sooner rather than later is my assessment.
Therefore the Referendum campaign becomes an extended job interview.
Osborne does look to be badly damaged, from the outside. He was happy to be associated with the renegotiation - until the reaction to it turned very sour. Since then he has hidden away in Budget purdah. Handy, but not if he wants to be seen to still be a serious contender with his MPs. I still don't buy that the arse has fallen out of his chances. He still has a Budget to come. He must now be thinking "how can I win friends?" - so hopefully the red pencil has gone through his proposed pension changes. And much as we think he is disliked out there -and make no mistake, he is a bloody hard sell on the doorstep - his National Living Wage could prove very popular when the new pay packets arrive with a few million voters who maybe weren't a natural pool of support before.
So Osborne is still in play. But is it my assessment that he will be Prime Minister? No - but then, it never was. He may yet surprise - read the runes, then say that he has no intention of throwing his hat in the ring. State his preferred route would be to stay Chancellor and see the job through with the new Prime Minister. Still a power behind the throne, an eminence gris for continuity Cameron - and still preserving his patronage. Advising his network in the Parliamentary party who to vote for. Not someone to piss off....
OTOH, Osborne might take the view that as he's already disliked, he might as well put the boot into private pensions.
I wonder how much the referendum is now on the mind of Osborne as he prepares the Budget? Another Omnishambles could help a kick-the-government Leave campaign.
Maybe he standardises pension income tax relief relief at 25%, therefore being a net gain to 85% of the population - even though most of the media are all in the 15% that would be negatively affected!
85% could potentially benefit, but their benefit would be very small, whereas the loss to the 15% would be very great.
I suspect that the Referendum margin will be in single figures, whichever side wins. Cameron has to continue with the bluff and bluster that he got a good deal throughout the campaign. There are plenty, even within the Remain camp, who will concede that jars with the reality. And it will be terminal to his credibility. So a new PM sooner rather than later is my assessment.
Therefore the Referendum campaign becomes an extended job interview.
Osborne does look to be badly damaged, from the outside. He was happy to be associated with the renegotiation - until the reaction to it turned very sour. Since then he has hidden away in Budget purdah. Handy, but not if he wants to be seen to still be a serious contender with his MPs. I still don't buy that the arse has fallen out of his chances. He still has a Budget to come. He must now be thinking "how can I win friends?" - so hopefully the red pencil has gone through his proposed pension changes. And much as we think he is disliked out there -and make no mistake, he is a bloody hard sell on the doorstep - his National Living Wage could prove very popular when the new pay packets arrive with a few million voters who maybe weren't a natural pool of support before.
So Osborne is still in play. But is it my assessment that he will be Prime Minister? No - but then, it never was. He may yet surprise - read the runes, then say that he has no intention of throwing his hat in the ring. State his preferred route would be to stay Chancellor and see the job through with the new Prime Minister. Still a power behind the throne, an eminence gris for continuity Cameron - and still preserving his patronage. Advising his network in the Parliamentary party who to vote for. Not someone to piss off....
OTOH, Osborne might take the view that as he's already disliked, he might as well put the boot into private pensions.
I wonder how much the referendum is now on the mind of Osborne as he prepares the Budget? Another Omnishambles could help a kick-the-government Leave campaign.
Maybe he standardises pension income tax relief relief at 25%, therefore being a net gain to 85% of the population - even though most of the media are all in the 15% that would be negatively affected!
85% could potentially benefit, but their benefit would be very small, whereas the loss to the 15% would be very great.
That is an argument to let the very rich keep a lot. To many of those in the bigger group even a small gain is worthwhile.
It's an argument in favour of the fairly comfortable keeping what they have. The sort of people who earn less than MP's, for example.
Gove is absolutely right on prisons and rehabilitation.
I know but it only takes one prisoner who was given a non custodial sentence instead of a prison sentence to commit a heinous crime for Gove to come under pressure.
My understanding of Gove's prison reforms were that he was looking at things like training and upskilling in prisons to reduce reoffending rates, rather than being soft on sentencing in the first place, no?
He's also looking at not sending first time offenders to prison for short sentences.
Okay, interesting, you know way more about this than I do. My understanding was that it was already bloody difficult to end up in prison anyway for a first offence.
I'm actually in favour of of ideas like weekend prisons that would allow nonviolent convicts to keep their jobs while still being punished.
In what world do criminals keep their jobs?
That would be the House of Lords, surely, or maybe the Commons.
I'm still a bit in shock over yesterday, I never expected such a mauling from Cameron. It's a terrible misjudgement, and unnecessarily alienated many die hard Cameroons.
The next leader needs to be one who can: 1: Accept the result of the referendum (whatever it is) and move on. 2: Unite the party back together. 3: Deal with the economy. 4: Beat the Labour Party at the election.
I now think Gove.
On the other hand, some think the flatulent fatuous scheming wind bag had it coming.....in the nicest possible way.....
I think its being overlooked that Cameron's vituperation was directed at Boris presumed policy of 'two votes' - and he declined subsequent (frequent) invitations from Labour back benchers to attack Boris personally.....and was also unfailing polite to long established Euro sceptics.....
'I wonder how many of today's signatories of 'The Times' letter also signed letters to say we should join the Euro.'
Many of the people at the top of big businesses are really bureaucrats rather than business people. They are attracted to bureaucracies. They are not the wealth creators they like to think they are.
Gove polls worse than Osborne. If it is Remain Osborne will ensure he takes over on a joint ticket with Javid if it is Leave Boris wins
Glad to see that your views continue, like a graceful ship of state, not to be troubled by either events or emerging realities. In a changing world, HYUFD can be relied upon to repeat his predictions ad infinitem....
Well that is the reality, the result of EU ref will determine whether Osborne or Boris is Tory leader whether you wish to dismiss my views or not!
Gove polls worse than Osborne. If it is Remain Osborne will ensure he takes over on a joint ticket with Javid if it is Leave Boris wins
Javid appears to be a smile on a stick at the moment. Woeful article in the papers at the weekend on his EU decision, and no firm positions on anything that matters, and not an impressive speaker.
Its also the naturalist and the lion joke all over again, it doesnt matter if Gove polls badly, so long as he polls better than Corbyn... and most bits of week old roadkill manage that.
Gove is almost the only Tory who does not clearly poll better than Corbyn, he polls even lower than Osborne. In any case if it is Leave it will be Boris who is leader, not Gove
I suspect that the Referendum margin will be in single figures, whichever side wins. Cameron has to continue with the bluff and bluster that he got a good deal throughout the campaign. There are plenty, even within the Remain camp, who will concede that jars with the reality. And it will be terminal to his credibility. So a new PM sooner rather than later is my assessment.
Therefore the Referendum campaign becomes an extended job interview.
Osborne does look to be badly damaged, from the outside. He was happy to be associated with the renegotiation - until the reaction to it turned very sour. Since then he has hidden away in Budget purdah. Handy, but not if he wants to be seen to still be a serious contender with his MPs. I still don't buy that the arse has fallen out of his chances. He still has a Budget to come. He must now be thinking "how can I win friends?" - so hopefully the red pencil has gone through his proposed pension changes. And much as we think he is disliked out there -and make no mistake, he is a bloody hard sell on the doorstep - his National Living Wage could prove very popular when the new pay packets arrive with a few million voters who maybe weren't a natural pool of support before.
So Osborne is still in play. But is it my assessment that he will be Prime Minister? No - but then, it never was. He may yet surprise - read the runes, then say that he has no intention of throwing his hat in the ring. State his preferred route would be to stay Chancellor and see the job through with the new Prime Minister. Still a power behind the throne, an eminence gris for continuity Cameron - and still preserving his patronage. Advising his network in the Parliamentary party who to vote for. Not someone to piss off....
OTOH, Osborne might take the view that as he's already disliked, he might as well put the boot into private pensions.
I wonder how much the referendum is now on the mind of Osborne as he prepares the Budget? Another Omnishambles could help a kick-the-government Leave campaign.
Maybe he standardises pension income tax relief relief at 25%, therefore being a net gain to 85% of the population - even though most of the media are all in the 15% that would be negatively affected!
85% could potentially benefit, but their benefit would be very small, whereas the loss to the 15% would be very great.
That is an argument to let the very rich keep a lot. To many of those in the bigger group even a small gain is worthwhile.
It's an argument in favour of the fairly comfortable keeping what they have. The sort of people who earn less than MP's, for example.
I suspect that the Referendum margin will be in single figures, whichever side wins. Cameron has to continue with the bluff and bluster that he got a good deal throughout the campaign. There are plenty, even within the Remain camp, who will concede that jars with the reality. And it will be terminal to his credibility. So a new PM sooner rather than later is my assessment.
Therefore the Referendum campaign becomes an extended job interview.
Osborne does look to be badly damaged, from the outside. He was happy to be associated with the renegotiation - until the reaction to it turned very sour. Since then he has hidden away in Budget purdah. Handy, but not if he wants to be seen to still be a serious contender with his MPs. I still don't buy that the arse has fallen out of his chances. He still has a Budget to come. He must now be thinking "how can I win friends?" - so hopefully the red pencil has gone through his proposed pension changes. And much as we think he is disliked out there -and make no mistake, he is a bloody hard sell on the doorstep - his National Living Wage could prove very popular when the new pay packets arrive with a few million voters who maybe weren't a natural pool of support before.
So Osborne is still in play. But is it my assessment that he will be Prime Minister? No - but then, it never was. He may yet surprise - read the runes, then say that he has no intention of throwing his hat in the ring. State his preferred route would be to stay Chancellor and see the job through with the new Prime Minister. Still a power behind the throne, an eminence gris for continuity Cameron - and still preserving his patronage. Advising his network
OTOH, Osborne might take the view that as he's already disliked, he might as well put the boot into private pensions.
I wonder how much the referendum is now on the mind of Osborne as he prepares the Budget? Another Omnishambles could help a kick-the-government Leave campaign.
Maybe he standardises pension income tax relief relief at 25%, therefore being a net gain to 85% of the population - even though most of the media are all in the 15% that would be negatively affected!
85% could potentially benefit, but their benefit would be very small, whereas the loss to the 15% would be very great.
That is an argument to let the very rich keep a lot. To many of those in the bigger group even a small gain is worthwhile.
It's an argument in favour of the fairly comfortable keeping what they have. The sort of people who earn less than MP's, for example.
Like me. MPs pensions are gold-plated and immune, don't forget.
Gove is absolutely right on prisons and rehabilitation.
I know but it only takes one prisoner who was given a non custodial sentence instead of a prison sentence to commit a heinous crime for Gove to come under pressure.
My understanding of Gove's prison reforms were that he was looking at things like training and upskilling in prisons to reduce reoffending rates, rather than being soft on sentencing in the first place, no?
He's also looking at not sending first time offenders to prison for short sentences.
Okay, interesting, you know way more about this than I do. My understanding was that it was already bloody difficult to end up in prison anyway for a first offence.
I'm actually in favour of of ideas like weekend prisons that would allow nonviolent convicts to keep their jobs while still being punished.
In what world do criminals keep their jobs?
In a world where you want them to have the chance of a law-abiding future
Quite. It would be good to see a range of available punishments available. For some offenders a short sharp shock is what they need to change their ways, for others a more nuanced approach would be better. There's certainly no point in giving someone with a wife and a job a 3 month sentence, it will most likely turn them into a career criminal.
THE SNP is set to downplay the landmark date that Scotland would have left the UK if the country had voted Yes in the independence referendum.
According to the timetable set out ahead of the historic 2014 poll, Scotland would become autonomous in just weeks, with March 24, 2016, earmarked by Alex Salmond as his proposed 'independence day'.
A series of events are planned by pro-union campaigners to highlight the fiscal position what would have faced a breakaway Scotland in light of tumbling oil revenues. The tax take from North Sea oil and gas is expected to hit £100 million in 2016-17, compared to between £6.8 billion and £7.9 billion forecast by the Scottish Government ahead of the vote.
Gove polls worse than Osborne. If it is Remain Osborne will ensure he takes over on a joint ticket with Javid if it is Leave Boris wins
Javid appears to be a smile on a stick at the moment. Woeful article in the papers at the weekend on his EU decision, and no firm positions on anything that matters, and not an impressive speaker.
Its also the naturalist and the lion joke all over again, it doesnt matter if Gove polls badly, so long as he polls better than Corbyn... and most bits of week old roadkill manage that.
if it is Leave it will be Boris who is leader
Not based on yesterday's HoC performance it won't be. Boris has to up his game and sharpish......
THE SNP is set to downplay the landmark date that Scotland would have left the UK if the country had voted Yes in the independence referendum.
According to the timetable set out ahead of the historic 2014 poll, Scotland would become autonomous in just weeks, with March 24, 2016, earmarked by Alex Salmond as his proposed 'independence day'.
A series of events are planned by pro-union campaigners to highlight the fiscal position what would have faced a breakaway Scotland in light of tumbling oil revenues. The tax take from North Sea oil and gas is expected to hit £100 million in 2016-17, compared to between £6.8 billion and £7.9 billion forecast by the Scottish Government ahead of the vote.
THE SNP is set to downplay the landmark date that Scotland would have left the UK if the country had voted Yes in the independence referendum.
According to the timetable set out ahead of the historic 2014 poll, Scotland would become autonomous in just weeks, with March 24, 2016, earmarked by Alex Salmond as his proposed 'independence day'.
A series of events are planned by pro-union campaigners to highlight the fiscal position what would have faced a breakaway Scotland in light of tumbling oil revenues. The tax take from North Sea oil and gas is expected to hit £100 million in 2016-17, compared to between £6.8 billion and £7.9 billion forecast by the Scottish Government ahead of the vote.
THE SNP is set to downplay the landmark date that Scotland would have left the UK if the country had voted Yes in the independence referendum.
According to the timetable set out ahead of the historic 2014 poll, Scotland would become autonomous in just weeks, with March 24, 2016, earmarked by Alex Salmond as his proposed 'independence day'.
A series of events are planned by pro-union campaigners to highlight the fiscal position what would have faced a breakaway Scotland in light of tumbling oil revenues. The tax take from North Sea oil and gas is expected to hit £100 million in 2016-17, compared to between £6.8 billion and £7.9 billion forecast by the Scottish Government ahead of the vote.
In the Commons yesterday, Cameron stated that 1 million!!!! finance jobs were in Glasgow and Edinburgh and Leave woud put them at risk. Wrong by several zero digits I'd reckon.
Gove polls worse than Osborne. If it is Remain Osborne will ensure he takes over on a joint ticket with Javid if it is Leave Boris wins
Glad to see that your views continue, like a graceful ship of state, not to be troubled by either events or emerging realities. In a changing world, HYUFD can be relied upon to repeat his predictions ad infinitem....
Well that is the reality, the result of EU ref will determine whether Osborne or Boris is Tory leader whether you wish to dismiss my views or not!
Disagree. Whilst the result of the vote may be the trigger for Cameron's departure, it will not be the simple either or that you suggest.
Actually, I think I would happily lay Boris and Osborne at the moment - events have suggested they are now less likely to win a leadership contest.
Gove is absolutely right on prisons and rehabilitation.
I know but it only takes one prisoner who was given a non custodial sentence instead of a prison sentence to commit a heinous crime for Gove to come under pressure.
My understanding of Gove's prison reforms were that he was looking at things like training and upskilling in prisons to reduce reoffending rates, rather than being soft on sentencing in the first place, no?
He's also looking at not sending first time offenders to prison for short sentences.
Okay, interesting, you know way more about this than I do. My understanding was that it was already bloody difficult to end up in prison anyway for a first offence.
I'm actually in favour of of ideas like weekend prisons that would allow nonviolent convicts to keep their jobs while still being punished.
Gove polls worse than Osborne. If it is Remain Osborne will ensure he takes over on a joint ticket with Javid if it is Leave Boris wins
Glad to see that your views continue, like a graceful ship of state, not to be troubled by either events or emerging realities. In a changing world, HYUFD can be relied upon to repeat his predictions ad infinitem....
Well that is the reality, the result of EU ref will determine whether Osborne or Boris is Tory leader whether you wish to dismiss my views or not!
Disagree. Whilst the result of the vote may be the trigger for Cameron's departure, it will not be the simple either or that you suggest.
Actually, I think I would happily lay Boris and Osborne at the moment - events have suggested they are now less likely to win a leadership contest.
All the value is outside those two. George Osborne is way too short and Boris Johnson is no bargain.
Gove polls worse than Osborneure he takes over on a joint ticket with Javid if it is Leave Boris wins
Glad to see that your views continue, like a graceful ship of state, not to be troubled by either events or emerging realities. In a changing world, HYUFD can be relied upon to repeat his predictions ad infinitem....
Well that is the reality, the result of EU ref will determine whether Osborne or Boris is Tory leader whether you wish to dismiss my views or not!
Disagree. Whilst the result of the vote may be the trigger for Cameron's departure, it will not be the simple either or that you suggest.
Actually, I think I would happily lay Boris and Osborne at the moment - events have suggested they are now less likely to win a leadership contest.
Osborne has ensured he will now be the only real Remain candidate while Boris has ensured he will be the Out candidate by backing Leave. Gove might be Boris' deputy or Chancellor but will not run for leader himself
In the Commons yesterday, Cameron stated that 1 million!!!! finance jobs were in Glasgow and Edinburgh and Leave woud put them at risk. Wrong by several zero digits I'd reckon.
A bit over a factor of five:
The sector directly employs 85,000 people in Scotland and a further 100,000 indirectly
Gove polls worse than Osborne. If it is Remain Osborne will ensure he takes over on a joint ticket with Javid if it is Leave Boris wins
Glad to see that your views continue, like a graceful ship of state, not to be troubled by either events or emerging realities. In a changing world, HYUFD can be relied upon to repeat his predictions ad infinitem....
Well that is the reality, the result of EU ref will determine whether Osborne or Boris is Tory leader whether you wish to dismiss my views or not!
Disagree. Whilst the result of the vote may be the trigger for Cameron's departure, it will not be the simple either or that you suggest.
Actually, I think I would happily lay Boris and Osborne at the moment - events have suggested they are now less likely to win a leadership contest.
My book agrees with you, a big lay on George and a massive one on Boris from May when he was evens. My nightmare scenario is that the PCP put up George and Boris, I'm irrecoverably underwater if that happens
F1: not too much to say, but worth noting the McLaren is very reliable, compared to last year. Must be some relief for the drivers/team. Also, Haas' front wing fell off yesterday. Not great, but it's hardly the first time that's happened to a team.
Also heard some murmuring that Pascal Wehrlein, new at Manor, is a very good driver. I think he tested for both Force India and Mercedes last year (the latter because one of the regular drivers was ill).
So, I'll perhaps consider the odds on Grosjean/Wehrlein to get points in Australia. Also worth remembering that McLaren seem to go really well there, so if Alonso/Button have a strong result, don't assume that's a good indicator for the rest of the season.
I suspect that the Referendum margin will be in single figures, whichever side wins. Cameron has to continue with the bluff and bluster that he got a good deal throughout the campaign. There are plenty, even within the Remain camp, who will concede that jars with the reality. And it will be terminal to his credibility. So a new PM sooner rather than later is my assessment.
Therefore the Referendum campaign becomes an extended job interview.
Osborne does look to be badly damaged, from the outside. He was happy to be associated with the renegotiation - until the reaction to it turned very sour. Since then he has hidden away in Budget purdah. Handy, but not if he wants to be seen to still be a serious contender with his MPs. I still don't buy that the arse has fallen out of his chances. He still has a Budget to come. He must now be thinking "how can I win friends?" - so hopefully the red pencil has gone through his proposed pension changes. And much as we think he is disliked out there -and make no mistake, he is a bloody So Osborne is still in play. But is it my assessment that he will be Prime Minister? No - but then, it never was. He may yet surprise - read the runes, then say that he has no intention of throwing his hat in the ring. State his preferred route would be to stay Chancellor and see the job through with the new Prime Minister. Still a power behind the throne, an eminence gris for continuity Cameron - and still preserving his patronage. Advising his network in the Parliamentary party who to vote for. Not someone to piss off....
OTOH, Osborne might take the view that as he's already disliked, he might as well put the boot into private pensions.
I wonder how much the referendum is now on the mind of Osborne as he prepares the Budget? Another Omnishambles could help a kick-the-government Leave campaign.
Maybe he standardises pension income tax relief relief at 25%, therefore being a net gain to 85% of the population - even though most of the media are all in the 15% that would be negatively affected!
85% could potentially benefit, but their benefit would be very small, whereas the loss to the 15% would be very great.
That is an argument to let the very rich keep a lot. To many of those in the bigger group even a small gain is worthwhile.
It's an argument in favour of the fairly comfortable keeping what they have. The sort of people who earn less than MP's, for example.
People like you?
In part. Sometimes I earn enough to pay higher rate tax. Sometimes I don't.
Gove polls worse than Osborne. If it is Remain Osborne will ensure he takes over on a joint ticket with Javid if it is Leave Boris wins
Glad to see that your views continue, like a graceful ship of state, not to be troubled by either events or emerging realities. In a changing world, HYUFD can be relied upon to repeat his predictions ad infinitem....
Well that is the reality, the result of EU ref will determine whether Osborne or Boris is Tory leader whether you wish to dismiss my views or not!
Disagree. Whilst the result of the vote may be the trigger for Cameron's departure, it will not be the simple either or that you suggest.
Actually, I think I would happily lay Boris and Osborne at the moment - events have suggested they are now less likely to win a leadership contest.
My book agrees with you, a big lay on George and a massive one on Boris from May when he was evens. My nightmare scenario is that the PCP put up George and Boris, I'm irrecoverably underwater if that happens
Don't worry. You are just relying on the good sense of the Tory bankbenchers
'The military should really stay the hell out of politics. Will look really bad on those who sign it.'
They would be very wise to avoid going down the same road as the police, certainly. The forces are still respected, the police - thanks mostly to their politicised and PC senior officers - are increasingly not.
All scaremongering and lies, though isn't it? Not a scintilla of positive, pro-European argument to be found anywhere on the Remain side.
It's far from certain that Corbyn will be Labour leader in 2020. Apart from a defenestration (which, of course, looks hard) he may resign voluntarily with the aim of handing over to someone else sympathetic and to his views. The Conservatives should think hard about this. We don't know how much of Corbyn's unpopularity comes from his political positions and how much from him his bumbling ineffectuality.
The Tories need to avoid getting complacent and dismissing Labour completely. I would currently vote for a socially-liberal, pro EU Tory like Cameron but would not for an anti-EU or socially conservative led party. Make the wrong choice of leader and give Labour time to switch to a more centrist leader and things could all look quite different.
I have been going on about this for a while. The scale of reduction in the north sea is such that it will drive down national investment and industrial production figures this year and next. The SNP are going on about reducing the tax yield yet further but the sad truth is that the swing in oil prices swamps anything that a UK government can do for a high cost production area like the north sea.
As I said the other day the priority is to maintain key infrastructure in each basin which will allow new small fields to be activated when the price makes that possible.
Yes it's bad news all round and as you say limited opportunities in what can be done to ease the problem.
Good news for someone , Scottp is highly excited , almost delirious over it , has made his life worthwhile.
At the party meeting with the Prime Minister last night, MPs including Steve Baker asked Cameron to ‘be nice to Boris’, not because they are particularly worried about the Mayor’s spirit being crushed but because there is some dismay in the party that the referendum debate is already getting so personal.
One Outer who likes Cameron observes sadly that ‘he was silly letting his temper show but it was sadly typical. He finds being challenged irksome’. Cameron probably also feels that the Mayor was a bit of a tease right up to the last minute, whereupon he humiliated him.
They are apparently planning a military top brass scare letter to get us to stay in the EU. There really aren't any depths to which they won't stoop.
The military should really stay the hell out of politics. Will look really bad on those who sign it.
Aren't they all retired officers? That's surely OK.
If they are retired then they've every right to sign a letter. Doesn't mean it won't look bad on the current military though. As Mr @runnymede says below the police have lost a lot of public support in the last couple of decades for being seen as political animals, I don't want to see the military go down the same route.
The Tory wets (for want of a more abusive term) need to find a Stop Boris candidate, acceptable to a Leave-dominated base. Once again, I refer honourable PBers to the answer I gave some years ago.
In the Commons yesterday, Cameron stated that 1 million!!!! finance jobs were in Glasgow and Edinburgh and Leave woud put them at risk. Wrong by several zero digits I'd reckon.
Not 1 million people living in the two of them never mind finance jobs. He really is Billy Fibber
Gove polls worse than Osborne. If it is Remain Osborne will ensure he takes over on a joint ticket with Javid if it is Leave Boris wins
Glad to see that your views continue, like a graceful ship of state, not to be troubled by either events or emerging realities. In a changing world, HYUFD can be relied upon to repeat his predictions ad infinitem....
Well that is the reality, the result of EU ref will determine whether Osborne or Boris is Tory leader whether you wish to dismiss my views or not!
Disagree. Whilst the result of the vote may be the trigger for Cameron's departure, it will not be the simple either or that you suggest.
Actually, I think I would happily lay Boris and Osborne at the moment - events have suggested they are now less likely to win a leadership contest.
My book agrees with you, a big lay on George and a massive one on Boris from May when he was evens. My nightmare scenario is that the PCP put up George and Boris, I'm irrecoverably underwater if that happens
A Sanders-Rubio contest in the US is starting to have the same look about it for me.
Gove isn't especially unpopular with the public outside the teaching profession. Even lefties feel he's doing a good job on prisons, and agreeable policies to your electorate plus a civil manner goes a long way in politics, as Jeremy has demonstrated chez Labour.
One cautionary note, though: maybe we are being over-influenced by his referendum letter, which was widely admired. It's just one letter, and before that I'm not sure this article would have looked so credible. It's possible that the real future leadership lies with someone who isn't taking much part in the referendum battle at all, and is therefore seen as uncontentious by members - May, perhaps.
Interesting what you say about Gove. Polling and my own anecdotal experience suggest he is very unpopular indeed. However the first isn't arguably not worth that much as most people won't know who he is and my experience may be misleading. If you were a Tory I would suspect you were just blinded to Gove's unpopularity by party loyalty but clearly that doesn't apply.
May has been the obvious choice for the Tories all along if they are focused on winning an election. They are not, though, as they think the election is unlosable.
At the party meeting with the Prime Minister last night, MPs including Steve Baker asked Cameron to ‘be nice to Boris’, not because they are particularly worried about the Mayor’s spirit being crushed but because there is some dismay in the party that the referendum debate is already getting so personal.
One Outer who likes Cameron observes sadly that ‘he was silly letting his temper show but it was sadly typical. He finds being challenged irksome’. Cameron probably also feels that the Mayor was a bit of a tease right up to the last minute, whereupon he humiliated him.
"A bit of a tease"? By any measure Boris Johnson behaved appallingly. He deserves what he got. It was still a mistake on the Prime Minister's part, of course.
Incidentally, Leavers need a more coherent story about the Prime Minister. They'll struggle to persuade the public that he's both a brutal bully and a wimp.
The Tory wets (for want of a more abusive term) need to find a Stop Boris candidate, acceptable to a Leave-dominated base. Once again, I refer honourable PBers to the answer I gave some years ago.
Gove is absolutely right on prisons and rehabilitation.
I know but it only takes one prisoner who was given a non custodial sentence instead of a prison sentence to commit a heinous crime for Gove to come under pressure.
My understanding of Gove's prison reforms were that he was looking at things like training and upskilling in prisons to reduce reoffending rates, rather than being soft on sentencing in the first place, no?
He's also looking at not sending first time offenders to prison for short sentences.
Okay, interesting, you know way more about this than I do. My understanding was that it was already bloody difficult to end up in prison anyway for a first offence.
I'm actually in favour of of ideas like weekend prisons that would allow nonviolent convicts to keep their jobs while still being punished.
At the party meeting with the Prime Minister last night, MPs including Steve Baker asked Cameron to ‘be nice to Boris’, not because they are particularly worried about the Mayor’s spirit being crushed but because there is some dismay in the party that the referendum debate is already getting so personal.
One Outer who likes Cameron observes sadly that ‘he was silly letting his temper show but it was sadly typical. He finds being challenged irksome’. Cameron probably also feels that the Mayor was a bit of a tease right up to the last minute, whereupon he humiliated him.
Cameron and Osborne have long talked about having a respectful debate, but they aren't following through. Cameron has been wilfully dishonest about renegotiation being legally binding and migrant camps in Kent. He gagged his cabinet Leavers while he again and again made Remain case. Osborne has threatened careers of MPs what back leave. They are implying Leavers are undermining national security. And Cameron was very aggressive with a soft ball question from BoJo.
And all this while Leave Tories respected his draconian gagging order and still praise his weak renegotiation as being a good effort. Cameron wants a double standard.
At the party meeting with the Prime Minister last night, MPs including Steve Baker asked Cameron to ‘be nice to Boris’, not because they are particularly worried about the Mayor’s spirit being crushed but because there is some dismay in the party that the referendum debate is already getting so personal.
One Outer who likes Cameron observes sadly that ‘he was silly letting his temper show but it was sadly typical. He finds being challenged irksome’. Cameron probably also feels that the Mayor was a bit of a tease right up to the last minute, whereupon he humiliated him.
"A bit of a tease"? By any measure Boris Johnson behaved appallingly. He deserves what he got. It was still a mistake on the Prime Minister's part, of course.
Incidentally, Leavers need a more coherent story about the Prime Minister. They'll struggle to persuade the public that he's both a brutal bully and a wimp.
I imagine David Davis must be feeling a bit sour having lost the crown of Tory Shit of the Decade to Boris.
The Tory wets (for want of a more abusive term) need to find a Stop Boris candidate, acceptable to a Leave-dominated base. Once again, I refer honourable PBers to the answer I gave some years ago.
Comments
But this isnt about Boris, my one abiding and overriding criticism of Cameron is his complete and utter lack of principle and willingness to say that Black is the same as White if it gets him what he wants. One can almost imagine that he said Or maybe I am thinking of something else.
This should not really need pointing out.
Mr. Indigo, you're an intelligent man. Please don't write such tosh.
"I could care less" is an intellectually vacant expression. It means the opposite of what it purports to mean. Perhaps only pre-prepared is dafter.
F1: day 2 of the first test. Odds on the BBC livefeed getting giggly over times, and occasionally remembering to point out that they're irrelevant? Probably 1/1000.
Of course, if they hadn't let their technical expert go he could've actually made some intelligent, insightful comments.
Setting aside the Tory ferret fight, I was disappointed to see Boris come out for Leave, I'd rather he;d closed establishment ranks and then we could be up for the long overdue bust up across all the parties and a political realignment of some sort.
As it is 2020 looks like being a line up of the unelectable
Corbyn\Farage\Johnson ?
Corbyn \ Farage \ Osborne ?
really you'd want them all to lose.
I'm still a bit in shock over yesterday, I never expected such a mauling from Cameron. It's a terrible misjudgement, and unnecessarily alienated many die hard Cameroons.
I'm feeling rather sad.
As an example, surely it's better to give a guy involved in a bar fight a nightly curfew, weekends in prison for a year and alcohol and aggression councelling, than lock him up for three months where he loses his job and gets to meet all sorts of unsavoury characters that will only see him back inside again in short order, ruining the guy's life.
You don't understand politics. But never mind you are mother Theresa.
Its also the naturalist and the lion joke all over again, it doesnt matter if Gove polls badly, so long as he polls better than Corbyn... and most bits of week old roadkill manage that.
Gove isn't especially unpopular with the public outside the teaching profession. Even lefties feel he's doing a good job on prisons, and agreeable policies to your electorate plus a civil manner goes a long way in politics, as Jeremy has demonstrated chez Labour.
One cautionary note, though: maybe we are being over-influenced by his referendum letter, which was widely admired. It's just one letter, and before that I'm not sure this article would have looked so credible. It's possible that the real future leadership lies with someone who isn't taking much part in the referendum battle at all, and is therefore seen as uncontentious by members - May, perhaps.
They have spent years defending Cameron against the accusations they themselves are now making.
This from the man whose government presided over the biggest collapse in manufacturing and approved the Lisbon Treaty.
He really is a total 4Quit
He seems to think it's about having people sharing the same house trying to tell each other what to do, when we just want to be friendly neighbours really.
We all bow to your greater wisdom I am sure... or perhaps not since I am struggle to remember a post of your that isn't a snide comment, or cheap shot, still takes all sorts I suppose
Very appropriate, but in the words of Kenny Rogers, perhaps "this time, the hurting won't heal."
I think its being overlooked that Cameron's vituperation was directed at Boris presumed policy of 'two votes' - and he declined subsequent (frequent) invitations from Labour back benchers to attack Boris personally.....and was also unfailing polite to long established Euro sceptics.....
Many of the people at the top of big businesses are really bureaucrats rather than business people. They are attracted to bureaucracies. They are not the wealth creators they like to think they are.
THE SNP is set to downplay the landmark date that Scotland would have left the UK if the country had voted Yes in the independence referendum.
According to the timetable set out ahead of the historic 2014 poll, Scotland would become autonomous in just weeks, with March 24, 2016, earmarked by Alex Salmond as his proposed 'independence day'.
A series of events are planned by pro-union campaigners to highlight the fiscal position what would have faced a breakaway Scotland in light of tumbling oil revenues. The tax take from North Sea oil and gas is expected to hit £100 million in 2016-17, compared to between £6.8 billion and £7.9 billion forecast by the Scottish Government ahead of the vote.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14294646.SNP_to_shun__independence_day__amid_claims_breakaway_Scotland_would_have_faced_fiscal_disaster/
However, I would love it if in September or whenever I can say "Told you so!"
PM had "More than 80" FTSE CEOs ready to sign his Remain letter in the Times, but only 36 actually did.
Actually, I think I would happily lay Boris and Osborne at the moment - events have suggested they are now less likely to win a leadership contest.
They are apparently planning a military top brass scare letter to get us to stay in the EU. There really aren't any depths to which they won't stoop.
politics
Perhaps it was actually 1 million....
The sector directly employs 85,000 people in Scotland and a further 100,000 indirectly
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/200491/scotland_analysis_financial_services_and_banking_200513.pdf
I wonder if the SNP will criticise him for getting his numbers wrong?
F1: not too much to say, but worth noting the McLaren is very reliable, compared to last year. Must be some relief for the drivers/team. Also, Haas' front wing fell off yesterday. Not great, but it's hardly the first time that's happened to a team.
Also heard some murmuring that Pascal Wehrlein, new at Manor, is a very good driver. I think he tested for both Force India and Mercedes last year (the latter because one of the regular drivers was ill).
So, I'll perhaps consider the odds on Grosjean/Wehrlein to get points in Australia. Also worth remembering that McLaren seem to go really well there, so if Alonso/Button have a strong result, don't assume that's a good indicator for the rest of the season.
They would be very wise to avoid going down the same road as the police, certainly. The forces are still respected, the police - thanks mostly to their politicised and PC senior officers - are increasingly not.
All scaremongering and lies, though isn't it? Not a scintilla of positive, pro-European argument to be found anywhere on the Remain side.
May has been the obvious choice for the Tories all along if they are focused on winning an election. They are not, though, as they think the election is unlosable.
Incidentally, Leavers need a more coherent story about the Prime Minister. They'll struggle to persuade the public that he's both a brutal bully and a wimp.
http://www.itv.com/news/2016-02-23/business-leaders-letter-to-the-times-in-full/
One of them appears to be a pub landlord. Given that West Ham never get to Europe, I'm surprised to see Karren Brady's name on there.
And all this while Leave Tories respected his draconian gagging order and still praise his weak renegotiation as being a good effort. Cameron wants a double standard.
Incidentally, Leavers need a more coherent story about the Prime Minister. They'll struggle to persuade the public that he's both a brutal bully and a wimp.
I imagine David Davis must be feeling a bit sour having lost the crown of Tory Shit of the Decade to Boris.