Take Osborne and Johnson out of the betting and look at the 3rd and 4th fav.Javid's fantasy is Chancellor under Osborne,which leaves Theresa May ,who is adopting a Tory centrist position on the EUref.May has done a long shift at the Home Office during which she has proven herself to be a safe pair of hands.She is more credible as a Unity candidate, a safe centrist.WH offer 9-1.Those on Osborne at 16-1 and Gove at 28-1 would do well to have a saver on May at 9-1.She could do OK up against Jezza. On the McDonnell for leader stuff coming from Ian Warren.has anyone actually spoken to John?He is keen not to repeat the heart attack he suffered not so long back.Labour leadership is a guaranteed heart-attack for fit people,let alone those with a history of heart problems.He may well reject the offer.
It will come as news to most here that McDonnell has a heart.... Good insight.
According to some on my twitter feed Jahadi Jez's performance in the HoC yesterday was his finest hour....whatever drugs these people are on, they are doing much for the cause of legislation!!!
SLAB Leader Kezia Dugdale is on DP show on BBC2 at present. Is she at any risk of being forced out if SLAB have a disastrous elections in north britain? How many losses would trigger a resignation or is it whether she is actually elected herself? Maybe a subject for an article OGH and helpers?
and conversely if we Remain and the deal turns out to be not worth the paper it is printed on ?
Then that's tough, although as I said, from the media coverage of the alleged paucity of the deal, why should it matter?
As I've said many times, there is no absolute certainty about the future. We have to make a decision factoring in the uncertainties. But clearly, the uncertainties on the Leave side are massively bigger. We don't even know what we'd be trying to achieve, let alone how it would pan out.
It is perfectly true that there are some considerable uncertainties on the Leave side. But there are equally considerable uncertainties on the Remain side. And the Remain side have been very very loath to provide any sort of clear account of what Remain would mean.
Getting away from financial matters, for instance, what would Remaining mean for our legal system, for - say - trial by jury? Justice and Home Affairs has a very wide reach and affects really quite sensitive issues relating to policing, investigations, the criminal process, incarceration, the liberty of the citizen, the balance between the state and the citizen, the burden and the standard of proof, habeas corpus, civil liberties, the collection of evidence, pre-trial disclosure and so on. Britain's approach to these is very different to how it is in most Continental European countries. How will an increasingly integrated EU deal with this?
The Remain position seems to be - for many anyway - no more than a version of the sunk cost fallacy. See Javid, for instance. We should never have gone in. It's probably not right for us. But we've been in for so long we may as well stay. Idiotic really. The past has happened. It's no reason for justifying what one should do in the future if that future is, as best we cant tell, not the right course for us.
Javid's pitch was lamentable. There seem to be people on both sides who think a half-hearted stance will do them favours. They should think of Ecclesiastes: "Whatever thy hand findeth to do, do it with thy might."
@MrHarryCole: Line from Eurosceptic MPs after PM demanded they spell out what model they want - Swiss, Norwegian, Canadian etc: "We want a British model."
Which looks like what, exactly?
An independent, proud nation trading with the world and co-operating with our neighbours when it makes sense to collaborate
With or without a deal with the EU involving the free movement of people, capital, goods and services?
Speaking personally, I would prefer not. I would want our relationship with the EU to be similar to our relationship with the United States, Canada, Australia, and other advanced economies. I have no problem with the idea of foreign countries imposing immigration controls on our citizens.
But, other Leave campaigners will see it differently, and prefer to keep free migration.
It is almost impossible for us to open an office in the US because of immigration and tax laws. If that became the case in Europe too it would be a huge problem for us and severely hamper our expansion.
I am relatively relaxed about the Tory Leave vision as it's pretty much the same as the Tory Remain one on a practical, day-to-day basis. The UKIP vision could be very damaging for us. Thankfully, UKIP would be nowhere near any Brexit negotiations.
Keep an eye on Dem vs GOP turnout. Trump being ahead of Hilary in raw votes in New Hampshire could be a straw in the wind. Dem turnout in SC will be interesting.
SLAB Leader Kezia Dugdale is on DP show on BBC2 at present. Is she at any risk of being forced out if SLAB have a disastrous elections in north britain? How many losses would trigger a resignation or is it whether she is actually elected herself? Maybe a subject for an article OGH and helpers?
She is at minimum as dire as the previous incumbents, totally talentless. Cannot even speak like a human.
and conversely if we Remain and the deal turns out to be not worth the paper it is printed on ?
Then that's tough, although as I said, from the media coverage of the alleged paucity of the deal, why should it matter?
As I've said many times, there is no absolute certainty about the future. We have to make a decision factoring in the uncertainties. But clearly, the uncertainties on the Leave side are massively bigger. We don't even know what we'd be trying to achieve, let alone how it would pan out.
It is perfectly true that there are some considerable uncertainties on the Leave side. But there are equally considerable uncertainties on the Remain side. And the Remain side have been very very loath to provide any sort of clear account of what Remain would mean.
Getting away from financial matters, for instance, what would Remaining mean for our legal system, for - say - trial by jury? Justice and Home Affairs has a very wide reach and affects really quite sensitive issues relating to policing, investigations, the criminal process, incarceration, the liberty of the citizen, the balance between the state and the citizen, the burden and the standard of proof, habeas corpus, civil liberties, the collection of evidence, pre-trial disclosure and so on. Britain's approach to these is very different to how it is in most Continental European countries. How will an increasingly integrated EU deal with this?
The Remain position seems to be - for many anyway - no more than a version of the sunk cost fallacy. See Javid, for instance. We should never have gone in. It's probably not right for us. But we've been in for so long we may as well stay. Idiotic really. The past has happened. It's no reason for justifying what one should do in the future if that future is, as best we cant tell, not the right course for us.
Javid's pitch was lamentable. There seem to be people on both sides who think a half-hearted stance will do them favours. They should think of Ecclesiastes: "Whatever thy hand findeth to do, do it with thy might."
WRT Boris's text to Cameron a few minutes before his announcement to the press.
Marr had been saying that morning that Boris was expected to come out for leave so it can hardly have been news to the PM. I don't see why he has taken such umbrage about it all.
and conversely if we Remain and the deal turns out to be not worth the paper it is printed on ?
Then that's tough, although as I said, from the media coverage of the alleged paucity of the deal, why should it matter?
As I've said many times, there is no absolute certainty about the future. We have to make a decision factoring in the uncertainties. But clearly, the uncertainties on the Leave side are massively bigger. We don't even know what we'd be trying to achieve, let alone how it would pan out.
It is perfectly true that there are some considerable uncertainties on the Leave side. But there are equally considerable uncertainties on the Remain side. And the Remain side have been very very loath to provide any sort of clear account of what Remain would mean.
Getting away from financial matters, for instance, what would Remaining mean for our legal system, for - say - trial by jury? Justice and Home Affairs has a very wide reach and affects really quite sensitive issues relating to policing, investigations, the criminal process, incarceration, the liberty of the citizen, the balance between the state and the citizen, the burden and the standard of proof, habeas corpus, civil liberties, the collection of evidence, pre-trial disclosure and so on. Britain's approach to these is very different to how it is in most Continental European countries. How will an increasingly integrated EU deal with this?
The Remain position seems to be - for many anyway - no more than a version of the sunk cost fallacy. See Javid, for instance. We should never have gone in. It's probably not right for us. But we've been in for so long we may as well stay. Idiotic really. The past has happened. It's no reason for justifying what one should do in the future if that future is, as best we cant tell, not the right course for us.
Javid's pitch was lamentable. There seem to be people on both sides who think a half-hearted stance will do them favours. They should think of Ecclesiastes: "Whatever thy hand findeth to do, do it with thy might."
Tom Newton Dunn Significant admission by PM at O2 Q&A: holding office has made him more pro-EU. Same with Hague, Hammond, Osborne. But Gove, the opposite.
WRT Boris's text to Cameron a few minutes before his announcement to the press.
Marr had been saying that morning that Boris was expected to come out for leave so it can hardly have been news to the PM. I don't see why he has taken such umbrage about it all.
Possibly because he knows that Boris is actually an 'outer'.
The Elizabeth Line hardly trips off the tongue. It has the same number of syllables as Victoria Line but seems harder to say, for some reason. I wonder what people will actually call it.
and conversely if we Remain and the deal turns out to be not worth the paper it is printed on ?
Then that's tough, although as I said, from the media coverage of the alleged paucity of the deal, why should it matter?
As I've said many times, there is no absolute certainty about the future. We have to make a decision factoring in the uncertainties. But clearly, the uncertainties on the Leave side are massively bigger. We don't even know what we'd be trying to achieve, let alone how it would pan out.
It is perfectly true that there are some considerable uncertainties on the Leave side. But there are equally considerable uncertainties on the Remain side. And the Remain side have been very very loath to provide any sort of clear account of what Remain would mean.
Getting away from financial matters, for instance, what would Remaining mean for our legal system, for - say - trial by jury? Justice and Home Affairs has a very wide reach and affects really quite sensitive issues relating to policing, investigations, the criminal process, incarceration, the liberty of the citizen, the balance between the state and the citizen, the burden and the standard of proof, habeas corpus, civil liberties, the collection of evidence, pre-trial disclosure and so on. Britain's approach to these is very different to how it is in most Continental European countries. How will an increasingly integrated EU deal with this?
The Remain position seems to be - for many anyway - no more than a version of the sunk cost fallacy. See Javid, for instance. We should never have gone in. It's probably not right for us. But we've been in for so long we may as well stay. Idiotic really. The past has happened. It's no reason for justifying what one should do in the future if that future is, as best we cant tell, not the right course for us.
Javid's pitch was lamentable. There seem to be people on both sides who think a half-hearted stance will do them favours. They should think of Ecclesiastes: "Whatever thy hand findeth to do, do it with thy might."
I don't know why Javid just didn't keep silent.
I imagine that as a cabinet minister, he has to say something but that was no excuse for saying what he did!
Tom Newton Dunn Significant admission by PM at O2 Q&A: holding office has made him more pro-EU. Same with Hague, Hammond, Osborne. But Gove, the opposite.
Interestingly, Lawson was very Europhilic in government, but has become very Eurosceptic out of it...
Perhaps there is some stone with magical powers in the middle of Whitehall that infects ministers, and only those with special underpants (like Gove) can escape its effects.
Tom Newton Dunn Significant admission by PM at O2 Q&A: holding office has made him more pro-EU. Same with Hague, Hammond, Osborne. But Gove, the opposite.
Adam Afriyie With only scraps offered by an intransigent & arrogant EU elite, we'll be stronger, safer and better off out @vote_leave@Grassroots_Out
He was the future once .... according to himself.
Soames was so right on Afriyie
The Mail on Sunday reports that Soames told the MP for Windsor: "You are a chateau bottled nuclear powered ****. You are totally f***ing disloyal, a f***ing disgrace to your party, your fellow MPs, your prime minister and your country."
"This is nothing more than a grotesque f***ing vanity project to promote your absurd f***ing campaign to become party leader. You aren’t up to it, man!"
I fear they will not be exchanging Christmas cards in the coming years.
I've become a real fan of Nick Soames in recent weeks. His Twitter account is hilarious
To return an old favour: years ago I had an odd request from a constituent (of unknown political views) - could I get him and his wife some tickets for a particular area of Ascot (can't remember if it was the Royal Box or something else - but something not generally available). I like to oblige when I can, but have little idea where Ascot is, let alone any influence. I scratched my head and thought of asking Soames, as the sort of chap who might know some society racing people. He said yes, he'd be pleased to help, and did so. No possible political or other advantage to him, he was just being friendly.
Whether my constituent voted Labour in gratitude to me, or Tory in gratitude to Soames, I have no idea. But it went into my little list of weird things that constituency MPs get asked.
I am not surprised by Soames' actions. Having met the bloke several times, he has my respect. To be sure he can be a complete shit if he feels someone has let him or the side down (I was with him when he received a phone call to tell him that Davies had resigned to fight that silly by-election - the air was blue), but he is a proper gentleman. He also has, I think, a quality rare in a politician - he says what he means and means what he says. That might be why Cameron kept him out of government, which is a shame as he would have been a great asset if he had returned to the MoD in 2010. He is also a very good local MP, he and Nick Herbert did a great job protecting local health services.
Voodoo poll alert. AOL has an online poll showing out of 22879 respondents 63% are voting to leave 25% to remain and 12% don't know. Given that most people still on AOL like myself are probably over 50 it may not be very representative.
The Elizabeth Line hardly trips off the tongue. It has the same number of syllables as Victoria Line but seems harder to say, for some reason. I wonder what people will actually call it.
Tom Newton Dunn Significant admission by PM at O2 Q&A: holding office has made him more pro-EU. Same with Hague, Hammond, Osborne. But Gove, the opposite.
Interestingly, Lawson was very Europhilic in government, but has become very Eurosceptic out of it...
Perhaps there is some stone with magical powers in the middle of Whitehall that infects ministers, and only those with special underpants (like Gove) can escape its effects.
LOL!
I think it's more likely to be the ministerial salaries, ministerial cars, private jets. banquets with the other Head of Government, that have the magical powers.
Why? For being politically astute. For being realpolitik and growing up from student union activism. Outers are head in the clouders, dreamers, ideologues who view the world within a narrow framework. Quite quaint really- but ultimately, like Corbyn's momentum group, they are no hopers.
and conversely if we Remain and the deal turns out to be not worth the paper it is printed on ?
Then that's tough, although as I said, from the media coverage of the alleged paucity of the deal, why should it matter?
As I've said many times, there is no absolute certainty about the future. We have to make a decision factoring in the uncertainties. But clearly, the uncertainties on the Leave side are massively bigger. We don't even know what we'd be trying to achieve, let alone how it would pan out.
It is perfectly true that there are some considerable uncertainties on the Leave side. But there are equally considerable uncertainties on the Remain side. And the Remain side have been very very loath to provide any sort of clear account of what Remain would mean.
Getting away from financial matters, for instance, what would Remaining mean for our legal system, for - say - trial by jury? Justice and Home Affairs has a very wide reach and affects really quite sensitive issues relating to policing, investigations, the criminal process, incarceration, the liberty of the citizen, the balance between the state and the citizen, the burden and the standard of proof, habeas corpus, civil liberties, the collection of evidence, pre-trial disclosure and so on. Britain's approach to these is very different to how it is in most Continental European countries. How will an increasingly integrated EU deal with this?
The Remain position seems to be - for many anyway - no more than a version of the sunk cost fallacy. See Javid, for instance. We should never have gone in. It's probably not right for us. But we've been in for so long we may as well stay. Idiotic really. The past has happened. It's no reason for justifying what one should do in the future if that future is, as best we cant tell, not the right course for us.
Javid's pitch was lamentable. There seem to be people on both sides who think a half-hearted stance will do them favours. They should think of Ecclesiastes: "Whatever thy hand findeth to do, do it with thy might."
SLAB Leader Kezia Dugdale is on DP show on BBC2 at present. Is she at any risk of being forced out if SLAB have a disastrous elections in north britain? How many losses would trigger a resignation or is it whether she is actually elected herself? Maybe a subject for an article OGH and helpers?
She is at minimum as dire as the previous incumbents, totally talentless. Cannot even speak like a human.
She may just be the best of a very poor bunch. I fear for her that she has taken a hospital pass by taking it on now rather than letting an older head lead SLAB to further losses this year. But what in your view is the level of losses that would force her out if she gets in herself?
Keep an eye on Dem vs GOP turnout. Trump being ahead of Hilary in raw votes in New Hampshire could be a straw in the wind. Dem turnout in SC will be interesting.
Yes. Two words of caution though. NH was an open primary where the GOP race was tighter and more interesting than the Dem one. It's possible and I think likely that independents will have tended towards the Republican primary to maximise their impact (which may also help explain the scale of Sanders' win).
Re SC, it is a Red state so there should be a higher turnout for the GOP by about 20%, all else being equal.
Tom Newton Dunn Significant admission by PM at O2 Q&A: holding office has made him more pro-EU. Same with Hague, Hammond, Osborne. But Gove, the opposite.
Interestingly, Lawson was very Europhilic in government, but has become very Eurosceptic out of it...
Perhaps there is some stone with magical powers in the middle of Whitehall that infects ministers, and only those with special underpants (like Gove) can escape its effects.
May be if you mainly hang around a lot of civil servants that love the EC then you become more europhile? That old saying, do not lie down with a dog that has fleas, if you do not want to get fleas.
The Elizabeth Line hardly trips off the tongue. It has the same number of syllables as Victoria Line but seems harder to say, for some reason. I wonder what people will actually call it.
@MrHarryCole: Line from Eurosceptic MPs after PM demanded they spell out what model they want - Swiss, Norwegian, Canadian etc: "We want a British model."
Which looks like what, exactly?
An independent, proud nation trading with the world and co-operating with our neighbours when it makes sense to collaborate
With or without a deal with the EU involving the free movement of people, capital, goods and services?
A deal would good. I'm fine with people having the ability to come here with a confirmed job offer (as I suspect the majority of Leave voters would be) and no recourse to public funds
But if no deal is available on reasonable terms then so be it.
Tom Newton Dunn Significant admission by PM at O2 Q&A: holding office has made him more pro-EU. Same with Hague, Hammond, Osborne. But Gove, the opposite.
Interestingly, Lawson was very Europhilic in government, but has become very Eurosceptic out of it...
Perhaps there is some stone with magical powers in the middle of Whitehall that infects ministers, and only those with special underpants (like Gove) can escape its effects.
LOL!
I think it's more likely to be the ministerial salaries, ministerial cars, private jets. banquets with the other Head of Government, that have the magical powers.
Hammond is one of the worst affected. Turned into a supine, spineless shell that forgot his beliefs and let Osborne walk all over his department.
The Elizabeth Line hardly trips off the tongue. It has the same number of syllables as Victoria Line but seems harder to say, for some reason. I wonder what people will actually call it.
The Mum Line? (Elizabeth Bowes-Lyon)
Presumably The 'insert colour on tube map' line...
The Elizabeth Line hardly trips off the tongue. It has the same number of syllables as Victoria Line but seems harder to say, for some reason. I wonder what people will actually call it.
» show previous quotes She is at minimum as dire as the previous incumbents, totally talentless. Cannot even speak like a human.
She may just be the best of a very poor bunch. I fear for her that she has taken a hospital pass by taking it on now rather than letting an older head lead SLAB to further losses this year. But what in your view is the level of losses that would force her out if she gets in herself?
It is hard to say nowadays , expectation is that SNP will clean sweep the constituency seats , so just a case of how many list seats Labour can cling on to. Hence why they have changed rules and got on list seats to save their skins. Lucky for her the PR means they get some seats but expectations are set so very low so likely she can survive. Also there are few contenders , but Sarwar will be very keen to be leader for sure.
The Elizabeth Line hardly trips off the tongue. It has the same number of syllables as Victoria Line but seems harder to say, for some reason. I wonder what people will actually call it.
The Elizabeth Line hardly trips off the tongue. It has the same number of syllables as Victoria Line but seems harder to say, for some reason. I wonder what people will actually call it.
Probably Crossrail. Calling it the Elizabeth line implies it will be part of the Underground which AFAIK it won't be. Dr Sunil could probably rule more definitively.
The Elizabeth Line hardly trips off the tongue. It has the same number of syllables as Victoria Line but seems harder to say, for some reason. I wonder what people will actually call it.
The Elizabeth Line hardly trips off the tongue. It has the same number of syllables as Victoria Line but seems harder to say, for some reason. I wonder what people will actually call it.
The Mum Line? (Elizabeth Bowes-Lyon)
Presumably The 'insert colour on tube map' line...
Javid's pitch was lamentable. There seem to be people on both sides who think a half-hearted stance will do them favours. They should think of Ecclesiastes: "Whatever thy hand findeth to do, do it with thy might."
I don't know why Javid just didn't keep silent.
Rumor has it that Javid is a waverer, and Osborne told him he wouldn't take it kindly if someone as closely associated with him as Javid was associated with Leave. The article is public demonstration of loyalty but his heart isn't in it.
and conversely if we Remain and the deal turns out to be not worth the paper it is printed on ?
Then that's tough, although as I said, from the media coverage of the alleged paucity of the deal, why should it matter?
I don't think Cameron can have it both ways. His argument is he's got something that, apparently, people were saying he couldn't get. If the child benefit changes don't happen after a Remain vote then I'd hope the Tories would seek to have Cameron removed as PM.
If the changes don't happen after a Remain vote I'd hope Cameron insists on Brexit.
The Elizabeth Line hardly trips off the tongue. It has the same number of syllables as Victoria Line but seems harder to say, for some reason. I wonder what people will actually call it.
The Mum Line? (Elizabeth Bowes-Lyon)
Presumably The 'insert colour on tube map' line...
Comments
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/02/23/the_end_of_the_establishment_129755.html
We shall see, very much a primary game right now though.
I am relatively relaxed about the Tory Leave vision as it's pretty much the same as the Tory Remain one on a practical, day-to-day basis. The UKIP vision could be very damaging for us. Thankfully, UKIP would be nowhere near any Brexit negotiations.
Marr had been saying that morning that Boris was expected to come out for leave so it can hardly have been news to the PM.
I don't see why he has taken such umbrage about it all.
REMAIN 140
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Significant admission by PM at O2 Q&A: holding office has made him more pro-EU. Same with Hague, Hammond, Osborne. But Gove, the opposite.
Perhaps there is some stone with magical powers in the middle of Whitehall that infects ministers, and only those with special underpants (like Gove) can escape its effects.
I think it's more likely to be the ministerial salaries, ministerial cars, private jets. banquets with the other Head of Government, that have the magical powers.
Re SC, it is a Red state so there should be a higher turnout for the GOP by about 20%, all else being equal.
But if no deal is available on reasonable terms then so be it.
malcolmg said:
» show previous quotes
She is at minimum as dire as the previous incumbents, totally talentless. Cannot even speak like a human.
She may just be the best of a very poor bunch. I fear for her that she has taken a hospital pass by taking it on now rather than letting an older head lead SLAB to further losses this year. But what in your view is the level of losses that would force her out if she gets in herself?
It is hard to say nowadays , expectation is that SNP will clean sweep the constituency seats , so just a case of how many list seats Labour can cling on to. Hence why they have changed rules and got on list seats to save their skins.
Lucky for her the PR means they get some seats but expectations are set so very low so likely she can survive. Also there are few contenders , but Sarwar will be very keen to be leader for sure.
GORDON BROWN WAS BAD ENOUGH.