Really? With the state of the Eurozone? The need for real reform inside the EC? It is foolish to believe that the EC is on some golden path and will just carry on as is. Remaining is not a choice for people that want a settled situation.
I thought it was the EU that was supposed to show how wicked it is by not accepting the results of referendums
I would accept the outcome but you wrote expecting no situation to develop where the EC was not put back into play by a crisis, or its failure to keep to the Cameron deal etc.
Whatever it does will be interpreted as a failure to keep to the deal. (That's not meant as a jibe. It's just reality.)
Should a Leaver take over after a narrrow Remain win they will come under pressure to call another referendum at every turn, especially if polling suggests the public has changed its mind. They will resist this as being politically farcical and they will then be attacked as "a secret Europhile" etc.
Focusing the EC on keeping to the letter and spirit of the deal etc is what a well run Govt should do. It would also keep the civil service on their toes and deter them from slipping in gold plating to various EC directives. Dominc Raab would be a very useful chap in a cabinet role.
FarmersForBritain The popular media assumption that UK farmers will lose all subsidies if we leave the EU is purely speculation and has no basis in fact.
Indeed, we will be able to design a subsidy regime (if we see fit) that suits the needs of our farmers, not French farmers
How much of the renegotiation has to survive before we decide we have been sold a up.
Legal opinions seem to feel that the emergency brake has a very high chance of being challenged at the ECJ almost immediately, what would be our position if that was shot down but the rest of the "deal" survived for the time being.
Since the Leave side have tied themselves in knots telling us that the renegotiation achieved exactly nothing, whether it unravels or not is irrelevant, surely? They can't have it both ways.
The renegotiation left us in a weaker position than before.
What will happen is that the face-saving veils will be pulled away and we will be left exposed.
I suspect that the party will go for a unifying candidate, one from either side of this European split - look out for a Cabinet member who clearly is only softly supporting Leave or Remain.
Ahem.
Theresa May.
Obvious, innit?
(Assuming a Remain result, of course)
I'd agree save one point.
May does at times exude a somewhat sour disposition. I'm not intimating that she adopt a forced Blair smile but the ability to empathize, genuine or not, smile and appear more clubbable would go a long way.
Clearly a long stint at the Home Office does not enhance the chuckle muscles but even "The Great She Elephant" was often amused and showed it whilst retaining the nuclear handbag for necessary chastisement of the errant faithful and non believers.
Interesting. I think May has a rather charming smile when she uses it in interviews. You're right that she often doesn't use it.
Imo (and this is just a hunch) she would connect very well with swing voters who would find her reasonable and reassuring. She would also provide a change in style from Cameron without herself appearing weird or extreme.
I agree with all this. Osborne and Gove are both very competent but totally unloveable. Boris is the reverse.
May is competent, not weird and can turn on the charm, even if she is not as loveable as Boris. She is a serious contender. I have here down as next Tory leader.
How much of the renegotiation has to survive before we decide we have been sold a up.
Legal opinions seem to feel that the emergency brake has a very high chance of being challenged at the ECJ almost immediately, what would be our position if that was shot down but the rest of the "deal" survived for the time being.
Since the Leave side have tied themselves in knots telling us that the renegotiation achieved exactly nothing, whether it unravels or not is irrelevant, surely? They can't have it both ways.
Okay you have had your smart arse point score, now answer the question.
Cameron might give good flashman in the HoC, but the real story over the last couple of days is the failure of Remain to get business on side. 36 out of 100 FTSE100 companies is an embarrasing total, given the intensity of the lobbying.
If Leave can get even 10 FTSE100 companies on board as well as others (wont be hard to beat Remain's 200 in total, the story will be that business is split; a big departure from the picture in 1975.
The ability to distill complex matters into compelling messages is a great and rare political gift. Will go far.
Yes, and she's absolutely charming as well. I was a bit concerned that she might not go do down too well with some of the, how shall I put this, more traditional members of the local party, but they love her.
If the MPs ballot comes down to one from Remain and one from Leave, then I'd expect Osborne to reach 50% several ballots before the Leave candidate emerges. The MPs who really don't like Boris will be tied up already.
At any other point in their history, Labour would have revelled in this Tory-on-Tory chair-flinging. But I’m not sure they really enjoyed it. It only made them look all the more irrelevant.
“Last week I was in Brussels,” burbled Jeremy Corbyn, “meeting European leaders. And one of them said to me…”
“‘Who are you?’” supplied Christopher Pincher (Con, Tamworth).
It was 35 seconds – seriously, I timed it – before the Tory mirth died down.
It’s a remarkable achievement. Even when senior Tories are openly savaging each other on the floor of the Commons, Jeremy Corbyn still manages to end up the butt of the joke.
@TSE - you're letting Project Fear get the better of you, and going all gaylord ponceyboots.
You'll kick yourself if we Remain and this deal turns out to be meaningless for the City, which I suspect it will be.
As you said, this country has a fantastic future whether we're in or out. I think if Leave the world is our oyster.
Is weird, one of the people who convinced me to switch to Leave has gone to Remain.
I'm still leaning to Leave (because of Gove) but Remain is something I have to consider given where I work and the lack of certainty over what Brexit means for access to the single market and the passport.
Adam Afriyie With only scraps offered by an intransigent & arrogant EU elite, we'll be stronger, safer and better off out @vote_leave@Grassroots_Out
He was the future once .... according to himself.
Soames was so right on Afriyie
The Mail on Sunday reports that Soames told the MP for Windsor: "You are a chateau bottled nuclear powered ****. You are totally f***ing disloyal, a f***ing disgrace to your party, your fellow MPs, your prime minister and your country."
"This is nothing more than a grotesque f***ing vanity project to promote your absurd f***ing campaign to become party leader. You aren’t up to it, man!"
For anyone looking for the causes of a great Conservative split just look at the attitude of the toadying supporters of Cameron. They do Cameron no favours. It is the people with more balance that Cameron should listen to.
Nicholas Soames as Mr Toad .... it certainly doesn't require a leap of faith.
FarmersForBritain The popular media assumption that UK farmers will lose all subsidies if we leave the EU is purely speculation and has no basis in fact.
Indeed, we will be able to design a subsidy regime (if we see fit) that suits the needs of our farmers, not French farmers
Are you one of those Tories who likes to defend certain producer interests? Cheering Maggie when she tried to suppress Salmonella?
Okay you have had your smart arse point score, now answer the question.
My smart-arse point is the political reality. We're not going to be holding a second referendum in the foreseeable future.
Which means it doesnt matter if the deal lasts ten minutes or not, if we are committed for the next decade anyway.
In domestic political terms, yes of course.
Equally, if it's a Leave, we'll have left, whether or not the warnings of the Remain side about the economic damage turned out to be right, and whether or not we do actually end up getting 'control of our borders' and all the other promises of the Leave side.
This is decision time. There's no Boris-style 'maybe we could rerun it' option. It's Remain or Leave.
Okay you have had your smart arse point score, now answer the question.
My smart-arse point is the political reality. We're not going to be holding a second referendum in the foreseeable future.
Which means it doesnt matter if the deal lasts ten minutes or not, if we are committed for the next decade anyway.
In domestic political terms, yes of course.
Equally, if it's a Leave, we'll have left, whether or not the warnings of the Remain side about the economic damage turned out to be right, and whether or not we do actually end up getting 'control of our borders' and all the other promises of the Leave side.
This is decision time. There's no Boris-style 'maybe we could rerun it' option. It's Remain or Leave.
and conversely if we Remain and the deal turns out to be not worth the paper it is printed on ?
If the deal gets shredded and the next Tory leader shrugs and says he is sorry, he better get used to relying on kipper voters to support his minority government after the next GE.
How much of the renegotiation has to survive before we decide we have been sold a up.
Legal opinions seem to feel that the emergency brake has a very high chance of being challenged at the ECJ almost immediately, what would be our position if that was shot down but the rest of the "deal" survived for the time being.
Since the Leave side have tied themselves in knots telling us that the renegotiation achieved exactly nothing, whether it unravels or not is irrelevant, surely? They can't have it both ways.
The renegotiation left us in a weaker position than before.
What will happen is that the face-saving veils will be pulled away and we will be left exposed.
I think Leave should campaign on the basis that if we Remain, we will be forced into the euro by default.
and conversely if we Remain and the deal turns out to be not worth the paper it is printed on ?
Then that's tough, although as I said, from the media coverage of the alleged paucity of the deal, why should it matter?
As I've said many times, there is no absolute certainty about the future. We have to make a decision factoring in the uncertainties. But clearly, the uncertainties on the Leave side are massively bigger. We don't even know what we'd be trying to achieve, let alone how it would pan out.
Adam Afriyie With only scraps offered by an intransigent & arrogant EU elite, we'll be stronger, safer and better off out @vote_leave@Grassroots_Out
He was the future once .... according to himself.
Soames was so right on Afriyie
The Mail on Sunday reports that Soames told the MP for Windsor: "You are a chateau bottled nuclear powered ****. You are totally f***ing disloyal, a f***ing disgrace to your party, your fellow MPs, your prime minister and your country."
"This is nothing more than a grotesque f***ing vanity project to promote your absurd f***ing campaign to become party leader. You aren’t up to it, man!"
Soames is a rather unpleasant individual.
I am not particularly keen on people rubbishing MPs simply because of their EU views whether it is Soames on one hand or Afriyie on the other.
However it is worth recalling Soames's own father Sir Christopher Soames was our first EU Commissioner. As a young teenager back around 1975 I remember waiting at Dover ferry port for ages while we waited for the grand Daimler or some such carrying an imperial looking Sir Christopher Soames through the plebs.
If Leave win, I can't see anyway for Cameron to stay, nor any obvious alternative to Johnson, for all his faults. His price should therefore not be too far behind that for Leave. Gove is way too unpopular.
Turning it around, a #voteleavegetboris meme is helpful to outers amongst the part of the electorate that hates Cameron and Osborne
I'm very much an inner but exit is tempting in that it would help precipitate the managed decline of the city. A too large financial sector is not healthy for an economy, which should be focusing on financing the needs of industry i.e producing the stuff we really need. Of course part of the reason we have such large financial sector is that we are doing much of the financing for the rest of the world. A good thing you might say. But 2008 was a game-changer. It was a reminder that financial institutions are not 100% secure and need the state to stand behind them. Either we are part of a broader banking union and accept an external regulator or we manage down the system.
FFS. If you have a problem with the size of the financial services, dont aim to make it smaller, aim to grow the rest of your economy.
It's like saying Scotland is too dependent on oil revenue, so lets stop drilling for the stuff.
Quite. It seems to be the equivalent of "Vote Remain so that we can close down an industry and put people out of work." Good luck with that.
FarmersForBritain The popular media assumption that UK farmers will lose all subsidies if we leave the EU is purely speculation and has no basis in fact.
Indeed, we will be able to design a subsidy regime (if we see fit) that suits the needs of our farmers, not French farmers
Are you one of those Tories who likes to defend certain producer interests? Cheering Maggie when she tried to suppress Salmonella?
Not particularly.
I believe there is a case for subsidies for marginal farming communities (e.g. hill farming) because I believe there are environmental and community benefits, and because otherwise we'd end up with depopulation. But that's driven by positive externalities rather than producer interests.
I don't believe that there are grounds for subsidising agribusinesses that are perfectly capable of competing efficiently in a free market.
But, unfortunately, the CAP doesn't work for us. My Mum used to get loads of dosh to grow wildflowers in her meadows. The fact that she preferred to grow wildflowers vs. actually have to work the land wasn't a factor in the government's mind.
I don't recall enough of the salmonella issue to comment specifically on the UK policy at the time. But I would note that live and, increasingly live attenuated, salmonella vaccines are seen as market standard in most developed markets. Food safety is a big issue, and one that we should address seriously.
Adam Afriyie With only scraps offered by an intransigent & arrogant EU elite, we'll be stronger, safer and better off out @vote_leave@Grassroots_Out
He was the future once .... according to himself.
Soames was so right on Afriyie
The Mail on Sunday reports that Soames told the MP for Windsor: "You are a chateau bottled nuclear powered ****. You are totally f***ing disloyal, a f***ing disgrace to your party, your fellow MPs, your prime minister and your country."
"This is nothing more than a grotesque f***ing vanity project to promote your absurd f***ing campaign to become party leader. You aren’t up to it, man!"
For anyone looking for the causes of a great Conservative split just look at the attitude of the toadying supporters of Cameron. They do Cameron no favours. It is the people with more balance that Cameron should listen to.
Nicholas Soames as Mr Toad .... it certainly doesn't require a leap of faith.
Nicholas Soames is Baron Harkonnen from Dune.
But with a somewhat better moisturising regime....
and conversely if we Remain and the deal turns out to be not worth the paper it is printed on ?
Then that's tough, although as I said, from the media coverage of the alleged paucity of the deal, why should it matter?
As I've said many times, there is no absolute certainty about the future. We have to make a decision factoring in the uncertainties. But clearly, the uncertainties on the Leave side are massively bigger. We don't even know what we'd be trying to achieve, let alone how it would pan out.
I'm not saying I agree with this guy but you can appreciate how your assertion the uncertainties are bigger on the leave side can easily be challenged.
I can't imagine why the President of France would get on well with the UK hating Jeremy Corbyn
The obvious reason would be that he doesn't want Brexit and that Corbyn being less than enthusiastic about staying in isn't helping. I wouldn't be surprised if Merkel or even Cameron weren't in on it. Given Hollande is a socialist, at least by name, perhaps he's seen as the best person to do some arm-twisting.
I disagree with your analysis of the first scenario. In the event that Leave wins, Cameron will go for sure. He will have to. But it is not necessarily the case that someone who was a Leaver during the referendum campaign will lead the exit negotiations. Think shades of grey. By the time of the vote some Remainers will have established themselves as less headbanging than others. The editors and columnists and the chatterers who follow them will have engaged in a lot of their usual sport of talking on and on about future possibilities, so someone or other could get themselves positioned, just about.
If Remain wins by a small margin, the bigger question than who the Tories select as leader is what happens to the Tory party. Many could leave and join UKIP. Or they could back an extremist Leaver within the party, who might even fashion and flash the shiny bargaining counter of forming a new party. Not that to shine it up would necessitate playing it. It would be hard for anyone to say that the issue of EU membership was now completely settled, with the vast majority of the members and supporters of the English caste system's "natural party of government" having been on the losing side of the referendum.
A big Remain victory - are you joking or what? I know Gaussian distributions are popular on the pro-workhouse far right, but think standard deviations, please!
Remain is unlikely to get more than 56%. Got to assume that the Leavers know how to GOTV. They seem to have managed well at the last two EU elections.
Okay you have had your smart arse point score, now answer the question.
My smart-arse point is the political reality. We're not going to be holding a second referendum in the foreseeable future.
Which means it doesnt matter if the deal lasts ten minutes or not, if we are committed for the next decade anyway.
In domestic political terms, yes of course.
Equally, if it's a Leave, we'll have left, whether or not the warnings of the Remain side about the economic damage turned out to be right, and whether or not we do actually end up getting 'control of our borders' and all the other promises of the Leave side.
This is decision time. There's no Boris-style 'maybe we could rerun it' option. It's Remain or Leave.
and conversely if we Remain and the deal turns out to be not worth the paper it is printed on ?
If the deal gets shredded and the next Tory leader shrugs and says he is sorry, he better get used to relying on kipper voters to support his minority government after the next GE.
If a deal got shredded a new Prime Minister would just bring forward the legislative changes needed to annul the treaty of the european union. There would be no need for a referendum. And watch the sh*t hit the fan.
Hollande has invited Corbyn to the Élysée Palace following meeting last week, source says.
Instructions on how not to run a country? The whole 'socialism' thing is a bit of a lark, but it hasnt worked out how we expected. Thank God we have you to send our entrepreneurs and surplus labour.
Cameron sounded like a right berk when he held up the possibility of British ministers and civil servants being completely unable to conclude exit negotiations within two years if the electorate decides that the country will leave the EU.
I mean look how brilliantly well, ahem, they just did in Brussels. Surely they could handle a different mandate? Y'know, democracy and stuff.
I'm not such a politics junkie as many of my fellow discussants here. Has any leading Leaver actually made the above point?
FarmersForBritain The popular media assumption that UK farmers will lose all subsidies if we leave the EU is purely speculation and has no basis in fact.
Indeed, we will be able to design a subsidy regime (if we see fit) that suits the needs of our farmers, not French farmers
Are you one of those Tories who likes to defend certain producer interests? Cheering Maggie when she tried to suppress Salmonella?
Not particularly.
I believe there is a case for subsidies for marginal farming communities (e.g. hill farming) because I believe there are environmental and community benefits, and because otherwise we'd end up with depopulation. But that's driven by positive externalities rather than producer interests.
I don't believe that there are grounds for subsidising agribusinesses that are perfectly capable of competing efficiently in a free market.
But, unfortunately, the CAP doesn't work for us. My Mum used to get loads of dosh to grow wildflowers in her meadows. The fact that she preferred to grow wildflowers vs. actually have to work the land wasn't a factor in the government's mind.
I don't recall enough of the salmonella issue to comment specifically on the UK policy at the time. But I would note that live and, increasingly live attenuated, salmonella vaccines are seen as market standard in most developed markets. Food safety is a big issue, and one that we should address seriously.
and conversely if we Remain and the deal turns out to be not worth the paper it is printed on ?
Then that's tough, although as I said, from the media coverage of the alleged paucity of the deal, why should it matter?
Christ on a bike, more rhetorical bollocks, you just can't help yourself can you.
You have told us that you feel the changes while less than ideal are substantial, the Remain side of the argument presumably feels likewise. If they turn out to be much less substantial it calls into question the basis of your decision. Unless of course you really think they are worthless flim-flam, in which case you should be honest, rather than trying to tell everyone how good it is as a means to convert them to your cause.
Your argument appears to be that substance of the deal is beside the point, so long as it provides a means to get people to vote for Remain, and if it subsequently gets scrapped by the ECJ, or voted down by the European Parliament then thats life - its a view I suppose, but you better get used to sharing the green benches with the kippers if it happens.
I can't imagine why the President of France would get on well with the UK hating Jeremy Corbyn
The obvious reason would be that he doesn't want Brexit and that Corbyn being less than enthusiastic about staying in isn't helping. I wouldn't be surprised if Merkel or even Cameron weren't in on it. Given Hollande is a socialist, at least by name, perhaps he's seen as the best person to do some arm-twisting.
Hollande can always point out that the Eurozone now has the ability to hammer the City of London, banks and hedge funds alike. That would be compelling to Corbyn.
FarmersForBritain The popular media assumption that UK farmers will lose all subsidies if we leave the EU is purely speculation and has no basis in fact.
Indeed, we will be able to design a subsidy regime (if we see fit) that suits the needs of our farmers, not French farmers
Are you one of those Tories who likes to defend certain producer interests? Cheering Maggie when she tried to suppress Salmonella?
Not particularly.
I believe there is a case for subsidies for marginal farming communities (e.g. hill farming) because I believe there are environmental and community benefits, and because otherwise we'd end up with depopulation. But that's driven by positive externalities rather than producer interests.
I don't believe that there are grounds for subsidising agribusinesses that are perfectly capable of competing efficiently in a free market.
But, unfortunately, the CAP doesn't work for us. My Mum used to get loads of dosh to grow wildflowers in her meadows. The fact that she preferred to grow wildflowers vs. actually have to work the land wasn't a factor in the government's mind.
I don't recall enough of the salmonella issue to comment specifically on the UK policy at the time. But I would note that live and, increasingly live attenuated, salmonella vaccines are seen as market standard in most developed markets. Food safety is a big issue, and one that we should address seriously.
Knowing a number of farmers I'd say they're as split down the middle as the rest of us.
Your argument appears to be that substance of the deal is beside the point, so long as it provides a means to get people to vote for Remain, and if it subsequently gets scrapped by the ECJ, or voted down by the European Parliament then thats life - its a view I suppose, but you better get used to sharing the green benches with the kippers if it happens.
Err, no, that's not my argument.
I've got work to do, so I'll have to leave trying to improve your comprhension skills to another time.
and conversely if we Remain and the deal turns out to be not worth the paper it is printed on ?
Then that's tough, although as I said, from the media coverage of the alleged paucity of the deal, why should it matter?
As I've said many times, there is no absolute certainty about the future. We have to make a decision factoring in the uncertainties. But clearly, the uncertainties on the Leave side are massively bigger. We don't even know what we'd be trying to achieve, let alone how it would pan out.
I'm not saying I agree with this guy but you can appreciate how your assertion the uncertainties are bigger on the leave side can easily be challenged.
Jim Mellon is a guy that I hugely respect. He's a tremendously savvy businessman
If a deal got shredded a new Prime Minister would just bring forward the legislative changes needed to annul the treaty of the european union
I think you mean 'could', not would. There is zero chance that would happen IMO, unless UKIP win the next GE.
The Kippers wont win the GE, however if it all falls apart and Cameron has continued with his lyingoverselling I can see a chunk of the Tory party peel off and join Farage's merry band. Boost the kipper vote over 20% at the next GE and things start to get interesting. It not going to be rugby rules, there is going to be bucket loads of bitterness and recriminations - hopes of pulling the party together afterwards appear to be fading, notice the number of members that skipped Cameron at the '22 last night.
FarmersForBritain The popular media assumption that UK farmers will lose all subsidies if we leave the EU is purely speculation and has no basis in fact.
Indeed, we will be able to design a subsidy regime (if we see fit) that suits the needs of our farmers, not French farmers
Are you one of those Tories who likes to defend certain producer interests? Cheering Maggie when she tried to suppress Salmonella?
Not particularly.
I believe there is a case for subsidies for marginal farming communities (e.g. hill farming) because I believe there are environmental and community benefits, and because otherwise we'd end up with depopulation. But that's driven by positive externalities rather than producer interests.
I don't believe that there are grounds for subsidising agribusinesses that are perfectly capable of competing efficiently in a free market.
But, unfortunately, the CAP doesn't work for us. My Mum used to get loads of dosh to grow wildflowers in her meadows. The fact that she preferred to grow wildflowers vs. actually have to work the land wasn't a factor in the government's mind.
I don't recall enough of the salmonella issue to comment specifically on the UK policy at the time. But I would note that live and, increasingly live attenuated, salmonella vaccines are seen as market standard in most developed markets. Food safety is a big issue, and one that we should address seriously.
My Mum toyed with the idea of not claiming the subsidies because she hated the paperwork so much. But it helped to have the income to mean that the farm only ran at a small loss.
Adam Afriyie With only scraps offered by an intransigent & arrogant EU elite, we'll be stronger, safer and better off out @vote_leave@Grassroots_Out
He was the future once .... according to himself.
Soames was so right on Afriyie
The Mail on Sunday reports that Soames told the MP for Windsor: "You are a chateau bottled nuclear powered ****. You are totally f***ing disloyal, a f***ing disgrace to your party, your fellow MPs, your prime minister and your country."
"This is nothing more than a grotesque f***ing vanity project to promote your absurd f***ing campaign to become party leader. You aren’t up to it, man!"
I fear they will not be exchanging Christmas cards in the coming years.
I've become a real fan of Nick Soames in recent weeks. His Twitter account is hilarious
To return an old favour: years ago I had an odd request from a constituent (of unknown political views) - could I get him and his wife some tickets for a particular area of Ascot (can't remember if it was the Royal Box or something else - but something not generally available). I like to oblige when I can, but have little idea where Ascot is, let alone any influence. I scratched my head and thought of asking Soames, as the sort of chap who might know some society racing people. He said yes, he'd be pleased to help, and did so. No possible political or other advantage to him, he was just being friendly.
Whether my constituent voted Labour in gratitude to me, or Tory in gratitude to Soames, I have no idea. But it went into my little list of weird things that constituency MPs get asked.
and conversely if we Remain and the deal turns out to be not worth the paper it is printed on ?
Then that's tough, although as I said, from the media coverage of the alleged paucity of the deal, why should it matter?
As I've said many times, there is no absolute certainty about the future. We have to make a decision factoring in the uncertainties. But clearly, the uncertainties on the Leave side are massively bigger. We don't even know what we'd be trying to achieve, let alone how it would pan out.
I'm not saying I agree with this guy but you can appreciate how your assertion the uncertainties are bigger on the leave side can easily be challenged.
Jim Mellon is a guy that I hugely respect. He's a tremendously savvy businessman
If Mellon is correct the EU is desperate to yoke Britain to the project before the whole thing explodes.
Either way we will have to help. But if we are out at the time, we will help on our terms.
and conversely if we Remain and the deal turns out to be not worth the paper it is printed on ?
Then that's tough, although as I said, from the media coverage of the alleged paucity of the deal, why should it matter?
I don't think Cameron can have it both ways. His argument is he's got something that, apparently, people were saying he couldn't get. If the child benefit changes don't happen after a Remain vote then I'd hope the Tories would seek to have Cameron removed as PM.
@MrHarryCole: Line from Eurosceptic MPs after PM demanded they spell out what model they want - Swiss, Norwegian, Canadian etc: "We want a British model."
Quite, it's bollocks, which is why I was disappointed to hear him playing it.
May be you read a different article to me?
He doesn't mention BRICs at all, but puts more weight on the views of entrepreneurs and business builders than those of managers of MNCs.
He also suggests that Italy and France haven't resolved their structural issues and that when they go pop it is better that we are out than in. France I agree with; Italy less convinced by.
If a deal got shredded a new Prime Minister would just bring forward the legislative changes needed to annul the treaty of the european union
I think you mean 'could', not would. There is zero chance that would happen IMO, unless UKIP win the next GE.
The Kippers wont win the GE, however if it all falls apart and Cameron has continued with his lyingoverselling I can see a chunk of the Tory party peel off and join Farage's merry band. Boost the kipper vote over 20% at the next GE and things start to get interesting. It not going to be rugby rules, there is going to be bucket loads of bitterness and recriminations - hopes of pulling the party together afterwards appear to be fading, notice the number of members that skipped Cameron at the '22 last night.
@MrHarryCole: Line from Eurosceptic MPs after PM demanded they spell out what model they want - Swiss, Norwegian, Canadian etc: "We want a British model."
Which looks like what, exactly?
An independent, proud nation trading with the world and co-operating with our neighbours when it makes sense to collaborate
and conversely if we Remain and the deal turns out to be not worth the paper it is printed on ?
Then that's tough, although as I said, from the media coverage of the alleged paucity of the deal, why should it matter?
As I've said many times, there is no absolute certainty about the future. We have to make a decision factoring in the uncertainties. But clearly, the uncertainties on the Leave side are massively bigger. We don't even know what we'd be trying to achieve, let alone how it would pan out.
I'm not saying I agree with this guy but you can appreciate how your assertion the uncertainties are bigger on the leave side can easily be challenged.
Jim Mellon is a guy that I hugely respect. He's a tremendously savvy businessman
Last time I saw Jim (last year) he was banging the table about how you needed to buy the Euro as it was massively undervalued.
Business joins the Brexit debate says the BBC, before telling us that certain named City and other big business interests are backing Remain (mainly the usual suspects plus a couple of dudes from Goldman Sachs). Curiously they don't give a voice to any who back Leave. I wonder how hard they tried to find some. Is there fear of further spooking the markets?
(Please recall: the Corporation of the City of London has so far not publicly adopted a corporate position, and contrary to what Reuters have asserted it is not, repeat not, obvious that were it to back one side or the other, it would back Remain.)
Relocation to Germany looks like a goer for some of the said interests anyway, whether it's Leave or Remain. Lots of cheap immigrant labour. The prospect of higher profits for businesses and an increasing ability on their part to make larger debt repayments. Yum yum! Then again, the German government hasn't played doggo for financial interests the way successive British governments have done for more than 300 years.
OK, chatters! What'll be the impact on the politics of the referendum if there's another Lehman's, maybe an order of magnitude or two bigger than the last one, before voting day?
He doesn't mention BRICs at all, but puts more weight on the views of entrepreneurs and business builders than those of managers of MNCs.
He also suggests that Italy and France haven't resolved their structural issues and that when they go pop it is better that we are out than in. France I agree with; Italy less convinced by.
I was referring to an interview on the radio where he was trashing the FTSE chief execs' letter on the grounds that their share prices hadn't performed well since 1999.
Whilst I don't disagree with some of his points in the CityAM article, a year ago he was advocating investing in the Eurozone:
Quite, it's bollocks, which is why I was disappointed to hear him playing it.
May be you read a different article to me?
He doesn't mention BRICs at all, but puts more weight on the views of entrepreneurs and business builders than those of managers of MNCs.
He also suggests that Italy and France haven't resolved their structural issues and that when they go pop it is better that we are out than in. France I agree with; Italy less convinced by.
Spain has reformed. Portugal has made good progress. Italy is on the road, but there's a long way to go.
France doesn't realise there's a journey it needs to go on.
Take Osborne and Johnson out of the betting and look at the 3rd and 4th fav.Javid's fantasy is Chancellor under Osborne,which leaves Theresa May ,who is adopting a Tory centrist position on the EUref.May has done a long shift at the Home Office during which she has proven herself to be a safe pair of hands.She is more credible as a Unity candidate, a safe centrist.WH offer 9-1.Those on Osborne at 16-1 and Gove at 28-1 would do well to have a saver on May at 9-1.She could do OK up against Jezza. On the McDonnell for leader stuff coming from Ian Warren.has anyone actually spoken to John?He is keen not to repeat the heart attack he suffered not so long back.Labour leadership is a guaranteed heart-attack for fit people,let alone those with a history of heart problems.He may well reject the offer.
If a deal got shredded a new Prime Minister would just bring forward the legislative changes needed to annul the treaty of the european union
I think you mean 'could', not would. There is zero chance that would happen IMO, unless UKIP win the next GE.
The Kippers wont win the GE, however if it all falls apart and Cameron has continued with his lyingoverselling I can see a chunk of the Tory party peel off and join Farage's merry band. Boost the kipper vote over 20% at the next GE and things start to get interesting. It not going to be rugby rules, there is going to be bucket loads of bitterness and recriminations - hopes of pulling the party together afterwards appear to be fading, notice the number of members that skipped Cameron at the '22 last night.
Corn Laws all over again?
Who are going to be the Whigs in this reenactment?
and conversely if we Remain and the deal turns out to be not worth the paper it is printed on ?
Then that's tough, although as I said, from the media coverage of the alleged paucity of the deal, why should it matter?
As I've said many times, there is no absolute certainty about the future. We have to make a decision factoring in the uncertainties. But clearly, the uncertainties on the Leave side are massively bigger. We don't even know what we'd be trying to achieve, let alone how it would pan out.
I'm not saying I agree with this guy but you can appreciate how your assertion the uncertainties are bigger on the leave side can easily be challenged.
Jim Mellon is a guy that I hugely respect. He's a tremendously savvy businessman
Last time I saw Jim (last year) he was banging the table about how you needed to buy the Euro as it was massively undervalued.
Yeh, but anyone prepared to throw money at loss-making biotechs is a good egg in my book
He doesn't mention BRICs at all, but puts more weight on the views of entrepreneurs and business builders than those of managers of MNCs.
He also suggests that Italy and France haven't resolved their structural issues and that when they go pop it is better that we are out than in. France I agree with; Italy less convinced by.
I was referring to an interview on the radio where he was trashing the FTSE chief execs' letter on the grounds that their share prices hadn't performed well since 1999.
Whilst I don't disagree with some of his points in the CityAM article, a year ago he was advocating investing in the Eurozone:
and conversely if we Remain and the deal turns out to be not worth the paper it is printed on ?
Then that's tough, although as I said, from the media coverage of the alleged paucity of the deal, why should it matter?
As I've said many times, there is no absolute certainty about the future. We have to make a decision factoring in the uncertainties. But clearly, the uncertainties on the Leave side are massively bigger. We don't even know what we'd be trying to achieve, let alone how it would pan out.
I'm not saying I agree with this guy but you can appreciate how your assertion the uncertainties are bigger on the leave side can easily be challenged.
Jim Mellon is a guy that I hugely respect. He's a tremendously savvy businessman
Having been involved in building a business from scratch that does 90% of its trading outside the UK I can honestly say that the EU has made very little difference to us. The one annoying thing is that we still have to collect national VAT at different rates and under different rules for the events that we put on in EU member states. Leaving the EU would not change that, of course. In fact, we may actually find out that if the UK does leave the EU has been saving us a whole heap of paperwork that would otherwise have to be done.
@MrHarryCole: Line from Eurosceptic MPs after PM demanded they spell out what model they want - Swiss, Norwegian, Canadian etc: "We want a British model."
Which looks like what, exactly?
An independent, proud nation trading with the world and co-operating with our neighbours when it makes sense to collaborate
and conversely if we Remain and the deal turns out to be not worth the paper it is printed on ?
Then that's tough, although as I said, from the media coverage of the alleged paucity of the deal, why should it matter?
As I've said many times, there is no absolute certainty about the future. We have to make a decision factoring in the uncertainties. But clearly, the uncertainties on the Leave side are massively bigger. We don't even know what we'd be trying to achieve, let alone how it would pan out.
It is perfectly true that there are some considerable uncertainties on the Leave side. But there are equally considerable uncertainties on the Remain side. And the Remain side have been very very loath to provide any sort of clear account of what Remain would mean.
Getting away from financial matters, for instance, what would Remaining mean for our legal system, for - say - trial by jury? Justice and Home Affairs has a very wide reach and affects really quite sensitive issues relating to policing, investigations, the criminal process, incarceration, the liberty of the citizen, the balance between the state and the citizen, the burden and the standard of proof, habeas corpus, civil liberties, the collection of evidence, pre-trial disclosure and so on. Britain's approach to these is very different to how it is in most Continental European countries. How will an increasingly integrated EU deal with this?
The Remain position seems to be - for many anyway - no more than a version of the sunk cost fallacy. See Javid, for instance. We should never have gone in. It's probably not right for us. But we've been in for so long we may as well stay. Idiotic really. The past has happened. It's no reason for justifying what one should do in the future if that future is, as best we cant tell, not the right course for us.
On the McDonnell for leader stuff coming from Ian Warren.has anyone actually spoken to John?He is keen not to repeat the heart attack he suffered not so long back.Labour leadership is a guaranteed heart-attack for fit people,let alone those with a history of heart problems.He may well reject the offer.
If a deal got shredded a new Prime Minister would just bring forward the legislative changes needed to annul the treaty of the european union
I think you mean 'could', not would. There is zero chance that would happen IMO, unless UKIP win the next GE.
The Kippers wont win the GE, however if it all falls apart and Cameron has continued with his lyingoverselling I can see a chunk of the Tory party peel off and join Farage's merry band. Boost the kipper vote over 20% at the next GE and things start to get interesting. It not going to be rugby rules, there is going to be bucket loads of bitterness and recriminations - hopes of pulling the party together afterwards appear to be fading, notice the number of members that skipped Cameron at the '22 last night.
Corn Laws all over again?
Who are going to be the Whigs in this reenactment?
Sadly that's a good question. Unless the LD's are quietly putting efforts into rebuilding.
@MrHarryCole: Line from Eurosceptic MPs after PM demanded they spell out what model they want - Swiss, Norwegian, Canadian etc: "We want a British model."
Which looks like what, exactly?
An independent, proud nation trading with the world and co-operating with our neighbours when it makes sense to collaborate
With or without a deal with the EU involving the free movement of people, capital, goods and services?
I can't imagine why the President of France would get on well with the UK hating Jeremy Corbyn
The obvious reason would be that he doesn't want Brexit and that Corbyn being less than enthusiastic about staying in isn't helping. I wouldn't be surprised if Merkel or even Cameron weren't in on it. Given Hollande is a socialist, at least by name, perhaps he's seen as the best person to do some arm-twisting.
Hollande can always point out that the Eurozone now has the ability to hammer the City of London, banks and hedge funds alike. That would be compelling to Corbyn.
Until someone points out to him that that means Labour won't have any money to piss away when/if they form a government again.
@MrHarryCole: Line from Eurosceptic MPs after PM demanded they spell out what model they want - Swiss, Norwegian, Canadian etc: "We want a British model."
Which looks like what, exactly?
An independent, proud nation trading with the world and co-operating with our neighbours when it makes sense to collaborate
With or without a deal with the EU involving the free movement of people, capital, goods and services?
Speaking personally, I would prefer not. I would want our relationship with the EU to be similar to our relationship with the United States, Canada, Australia, and other advanced economies. I have no problem with the idea of foreign countries imposing immigration controls on our citizens.
But, other Leave campaigners will see it differently, and prefer to keep free migration.
I can't imagine why the President of France would get on well with the UK hating Jeremy Corbyn
The obvious reason would be that he doesn't want Brexit and that Corbyn being less than enthusiastic about staying in isn't helping. I wouldn't be surprised if Merkel or even Cameron weren't in on it. Given Hollande is a socialist, at least by name, perhaps he's seen as the best person to do some arm-twisting.
Hollande can always point out that the Eurozone now has the ability to hammer the City of London, banks and hedge funds alike. That would be compelling to Corbyn.
The Eurozone has very little ability to regulate hedge funds, because most of them are Bermuda domiciled. They merely have a London based "investment advisor". So the Bermuda management company pays the UK Ltd Company a relatively small fee for advice. The result of this is that performance fees accrue tax free in Bermuda.
If a deal got shredded a new Prime Minister would just bring forward the legislative changes needed to annul the treaty of the european union
I think you mean 'could', not would. There is zero chance that would happen IMO, unless UKIP win the next GE.
The Kippers wont win the GE, however if it all falls apart and Cameron has continued with his lyingoverselling I can see a chunk of the Tory party peel off and join Farage's merry band. Boost the kipper vote over 20% at the next GE and things start to get interesting. It not going to be rugby rules, there is going to be bucket loads of bitterness and recriminations - hopes of pulling the party together afterwards appear to be fading, notice the number of members that skipped Cameron at the '22 last night.
Corn Laws all over again?
Who are going to be the Whigs in this reenactment?
Sadly that's a good question. Unless the LD's are quietly putting efforts into rebuilding.
Comments
You'll kick yourself if we Remain and this deal turns out to be meaningless for the City, which I suspect it will be.
As you said, this country has a fantastic future whether we're in or out. I think if Leave the world is our oyster.
What will happen is that the face-saving veils will be pulled away and we will be left exposed.
May is competent, not weird and can turn on the charm, even if she is not as loveable as Boris. She is a serious contender. I have here down as next Tory leader.
http://www.thepoke.co.uk/2016/02/23/ukip-brexit-song/
Not really UKIP, a former UKIP PPC... But all the same...
If Leave can get even 10 FTSE100 companies on board as well as others (wont be hard to beat Remain's 200 in total, the story will be that business is split; a big departure from the picture in 1975.
But, Osborne against who as the last two?
You'll kick yourself if we Remain and this deal turns out to be meaningless for the City, which I suspect it will be.
As you said, this country has a fantastic future whether we're in or out. I think if Leave the world is our oyster.
I'm still leaning to Leave (because of Gove) but Remain is something I have to consider given where I work and the lack of certainty over what Brexit means for access to the single market and the passport.
Equally, if it's a Leave, we'll have left, whether or not the warnings of the Remain side about the economic damage turned out to be right, and whether or not we do actually end up getting 'control of our borders' and all the other promises of the Leave side.
This is decision time. There's no Boris-style 'maybe we could rerun it' option. It's Remain or Leave.
If the deal gets shredded and the next Tory leader shrugs and says he is sorry, he better get used to relying on kipper voters to support his minority government after the next GE.
I believe an upgraded version will be in place for the second test. Could be wrong.
As I've said many times, there is no absolute certainty about the future. We have to make a decision factoring in the uncertainties. But clearly, the uncertainties on the Leave side are massively bigger. We don't even know what we'd be trying to achieve, let alone how it would pan out.
However it is worth recalling Soames's own father Sir Christopher Soames was our first EU Commissioner. As a young teenager back around 1975 I remember waiting at Dover ferry port for ages while we waited for the grand Daimler or some such carrying an imperial looking Sir Christopher Soames through the plebs.
Turning it around, a #voteleavegetboris meme is helpful to outers amongst the part of the electorate that hates Cameron and Osborne
This by @BrunoBrussels would've been meat and drink for Eurosceptics #EUreferendum #Brexit https://t.co/xctvp4RlHc
I believe there is a case for subsidies for marginal farming communities (e.g. hill farming) because I believe there are environmental and community benefits, and because otherwise we'd end up with depopulation. But that's driven by positive externalities rather than producer interests.
I don't believe that there are grounds for subsidising agribusinesses that are perfectly capable of competing efficiently in a free market.
But, unfortunately, the CAP doesn't work for us. My Mum used to get loads of dosh to grow wildflowers in her meadows. The fact that she preferred to grow wildflowers vs. actually have to work the land wasn't a factor in the government's mind.
I don't recall enough of the salmonella issue to comment specifically on the UK policy at the time. But I would note that live and, increasingly live attenuated, salmonella vaccines are seen as market standard in most developed markets. Food safety is a big issue, and one that we should address seriously.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12168675/Staying-in-the-EU-would-see-the-UK-facing-up-to-economic-domination.html
I'm not saying I agree with this guy but you can appreciate how your assertion the uncertainties are bigger on the leave side can easily be challenged.
I disagree with your analysis of the first scenario. In the event that Leave wins, Cameron will go for sure. He will have to. But it is not necessarily the case that someone who was a Leaver during the referendum campaign will lead the exit negotiations. Think shades of grey. By the time of the vote some Remainers will have established themselves as less headbanging than others. The editors and columnists and the chatterers who follow them will have engaged in a lot of their usual sport of talking on and on about future possibilities, so someone or other could get themselves positioned, just about.
If Remain wins by a small margin, the bigger question than who the Tories select as leader is what happens to the Tory party. Many could leave and join UKIP. Or they could back an extremist Leaver within the party, who might even fashion and flash the shiny bargaining counter of forming a new party. Not that to shine it up would necessitate playing it. It would be hard for anyone to say that the issue of EU membership was now completely settled, with the vast majority of the members and supporters of the English caste system's "natural party of government" having been on the losing side of the referendum.
A big Remain victory - are you joking or what? I know Gaussian distributions are popular on the pro-workhouse far right, but think standard deviations, please!
Remain is unlikely to get more than 56%. Got to assume that the Leavers know how to GOTV. They seem to have managed well at the last two EU elections.
If a deal got shredded a new Prime Minister would just bring forward the legislative changes needed to annul the treaty of the european union. There would be no need for a referendum. And watch the sh*t hit the fan.
I think you mean 'could', not would. There is zero chance that would happen IMO, unless UKIP win the next GE.
I mean look how brilliantly well, ahem, they just did in Brussels. Surely they could handle a different mandate? Y'know, democracy and stuff.
I'm not such a politics junkie as many of my fellow discussants here. Has any leading Leaver actually made the above point? Ooh! The Corporation of the City of London will be watching closely
They want to act as small businesses, not receivers of form filling subsidises.
You have told us that you feel the changes while less than ideal are substantial, the Remain side of the argument presumably feels likewise. If they turn out to be much less substantial it calls into question the basis of your decision. Unless of course you really think they are worthless flim-flam, in which case you should be honest, rather than trying to tell everyone how good it is as a means to convert them to your cause.
Your argument appears to be that substance of the deal is beside the point, so long as it provides a means to get people to vote for Remain, and if it subsequently gets scrapped by the ECJ, or voted down by the European Parliament then thats life - its a view I suppose, but you better get used to sharing the green benches with the kippers if it happens.
Nice photo of window notice though
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/crossrail-named-the-elizabeth-line-royal-title-unveiled-as-the-queen-visits-bond-street-a3186791.html
I've got work to do, so I'll have to leave trying to improve your comprhension skills to another time.
Joe Ryle helped organise for activist group Momentum in London, where some MPs fear it is behind attempts to deselect them.
He also played an active role in aviation campaign group Plane Stupid, with whom he was arrested after a protest at Stansted Airport.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/shadow-chancellor-john-mcdonnell-under-fire-for-employing-momentum-and-plane-stupid-activist-a3186991.html
BRICs.
(Actually I agree with you, but exactly the same argument he has been using to trash FTSE100 chief execs applies to his record).
Whether my constituent voted Labour in gratitude to me, or Tory in gratitude to Soames, I have no idea. But it went into my little list of weird things that constituency MPs get asked.
Easily the most crass lobbying I've ever seen
https://youtu.be/fxis7Y1ikIQ
Either way we will have to help. But if we are out at the time, we will help on our terms.
Manx.
(two can play that game)
Chris Ship
They've lined them up on the balconies for Cameron's Q&A on #euref at @O2 HQ. Feels like election time again. https://t.co/U1kA544HzD
Which looks like what, exactly?
He doesn't mention BRICs at all, but puts more weight on the views of entrepreneurs and business builders than those of managers of MNCs.
He also suggests that Italy and France haven't resolved their structural issues and that when they go pop it is better that we are out than in. France I agree with; Italy less convinced by.
(Please recall: the Corporation of the City of London has so far not publicly adopted a corporate position, and contrary to what Reuters have asserted it is not, repeat not, obvious that were it to back one side or the other, it would back Remain.)
Relocation to Germany looks like a goer for some of the said interests anyway, whether it's Leave or Remain. Lots of cheap immigrant labour. The prospect of higher profits for businesses and an increasing ability on their part to make larger debt repayments. Yum yum! Then again, the German government hasn't played doggo for financial interests the way successive British governments have done for more than 300 years.
OK, chatters! What'll be the impact on the politics of the referendum if there's another Lehman's, maybe an order of magnitude or two bigger than the last one, before voting day?
Whilst I don't disagree with some of his points in the CityAM article, a year ago he was advocating investing in the Eurozone:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/11480957/Jim-Mellon-Now-is-the-time-for-Britons-to-buy-European-property.html
France doesn't realise there's a journey it needs to go on.
On the McDonnell for leader stuff coming from Ian Warren.has anyone actually spoken to John?He is keen not to repeat the heart attack he suffered not so long back.Labour leadership is a guaranteed heart-attack for fit people,let alone those with a history of heart problems.He may well reject the offer.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12168525/The-EU-referendum-could-make-Boris-Johnson-the-next-Conservative-leader.html
Getting away from financial matters, for instance, what would Remaining mean for our legal system, for - say - trial by jury? Justice and Home Affairs has a very wide reach and affects really quite sensitive issues relating to policing, investigations, the criminal process, incarceration, the liberty of the citizen, the balance between the state and the citizen, the burden and the standard of proof, habeas corpus, civil liberties, the collection of evidence, pre-trial disclosure and so on. Britain's approach to these is very different to how it is in most Continental European countries. How will an increasingly integrated EU deal with this?
The Remain position seems to be - for many anyway - no more than a version of the sunk cost fallacy. See Javid, for instance. We should never have gone in. It's probably not right for us. But we've been in for so long we may as well stay. Idiotic really. The past has happened. It's no reason for justifying what one should do in the future if that future is, as best we cant tell, not the right course for us.
But if you were buying a second home and intend to ride the cycle then it was a good time to buy.
Like when I bought my US property in 2008 - 45% off the asking price and cable north of $1.90.
Imagine us renting out our membership of the EU.
We'd need to charge 10bn just to break even.
Any takers on the current terms?
Historical Republican nominee favourably chart.
But, other Leave campaigners will see it differently, and prefer to keep free migration.
http://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-35639333
https://i.guim.co.uk/img/static/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2015/3/19/1426758343056/231b0cca-36d7-442b-825a-69a157c879f3-562x720.jpeg?w=620&q=85&auto=format&sharp=10&s=ffeb174b6c386b373a7f0731227e32df