Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The impact of the EURef on next CON leader betting

1246

Comments

  • Who was the wag who shouted "Who are you? " at Corbyn yesterday? That was probably the funniest thing I've ever seen in the house of commons. Pure comedy genius.

    Chris Pincher
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474

    rcs1000 said:

    JackW said:

    I suspect that the party will go for a unifying candidate, one from either side of this European split - look out for a Cabinet member who clearly is only softly supporting Leave or Remain.

    Ahem.

    Theresa May.

    Obvious, innit?

    (Assuming a Remain result, of course)
    I'd agree save one point.

    May does at times exude a somewhat sour disposition. I'm not intimating that she adopt a forced Blair smile but the ability to empathize, genuine or not, smile and appear more clubbable would go a long way.

    Clearly a long stint at the Home Office does not enhance the chuckle muscles but even "The Great She Elephant" was often amused and showed it whilst retaining the nuclear handbag for necessary chastisement of the errant faithful and non believers.
    I find Osbone very clubbable
    In that you'd like to club him to death?
    when those big baby seal pup eyes look up at you........ and then you think of your pension.
    Did you mention pensions?

    Look who's planning to dip into them again.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3457362/George-Osborne-planning-4BILLION-raid-middle-class-pensioners-scrapping-tax-free-lump-sums.html
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I've tried getting in touch with his home and work email addresses.

    I fear he may be no longer with us. We were pretty good friends.

    Fenster said:

    Is Financier on that list of top business people?

    Where is he these days? Maybe he's gone bust?
  • tlg86 said:

    Mr. Eagles, that's an argument for the certainty of servitude over the uncertainty of freedom.

    Better to be in servitude and earning millions/billions than being free and not having a pot to piss in
    During Portillo's US railroad trip he talked about the US Civil War, and it occurred to me that the black slaves who fled to the North were taking a risk. Perhaps they should stuck to what they knew?
    I see that analogy. If Cameron wins, one of the loony outers will take it so badly they'll shoot him.

    Nigel Farage = Jefferson Davis?

    Question is who is Ulysses S Grant?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Charles said:

    JackW said:

    I suspect that the party will go for a unifying candidate, one from either side of this European split - look out for a Cabinet member who clearly is only softly supporting Leave or Remain.

    Ahem.

    Theresa May.

    Obvious, innit?

    (Assuming a Remain result, of course)
    I'd agree save one point.

    May does at times exude a somewhat sour disposition. I'm not intimating that she adopt a forced Blair smile but the ability to empathize, genuine or not, smile and appear more clubbable would go a long way.

    Clearly a long stint at the Home Office does not enhance the chuckle muscles but even "The Great She Elephant" was often amused and showed it whilst retaining the nuclear handbag for necessary chastisement of the errant faithful and non believers.
    I find Osbone very clubbable
    Bit like a baby seal?
    Chortle .... :smiley:
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,362

    Mr. Eagles, you think we won't have a pot to piss in if we leave the EU? Really?

    If we don't have favourable access to the single market then maybe.
    maybe if but yadda

    your arguments are less coherent than Boris'
    You're like a Scot Nat. If we have independence, we will force the rest of the U.K. into a currency union. :lol:
    turnip ! :-)
  • Wonder how many days in a row the BBC can lead with the risks / leap in the dark style headlines on a potential EU exit?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited February 2016
    The Nabavi take on the Betfair PM after Cameron market. (In each case I've given the best odds to back, although some of the amounts available are piddling. I've not bothered with all of the Labour no-hopers):

    Osborne 4.3 About right
    Boris 3.85 Far too short
    Corbyn 15.5 Are they completely mad?
    Javid 18.5 Too short
    May 13.5 Very good value
    Hunt 30.0 Too short
    Benn 22 Bonkers
    Nandy 70.0 Daft
    David Miliband 32.0 You cannot be serious!
    Dan Jarvis 28.0 Bonkers
    Hammond 40.0 A bit long
    Michael Gove 20.0 About right
    Paterson 130.0 Possible good-value long-shot
    Liz Truss 140.0 Possible good-value long-shot
    Nicky Morgan 160.0 A bit short
    Priti Patel 22.0 Too short
    Michael Fallon 200.0 Meh
    Justine Greening 200.0 Possible good-value long-shot
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,454
    edited February 2016
    "Big firms warn EU exit threatens jobs" says the BBC news front headline, about the letter in the Times.

    Amongst those "big firms" are - as well as the aforementioned pub landlord - the following (who should all be given a Queens Award for Self-Publicitiy):

    Waterloo Tea Limited (10 employees)

    True Bridge Consultancy (3 employees)

    The Prof's Tuition (4 employees)

    Kendall Contracting (4 employees)

    The Green Stationery Company (3 employees)

    VIP Labels (2 employees)

    and my personal fav -

    Two Guys from Brussels (2 employees)
  • Mr. Eagles, that's an argument for the certainty of servitude over the uncertainty of freedom.

    Better to be in servitude and earning millions/billions than being free and not having a pot to piss in
    spoken like a lawyer
    There's a reason why the legal profession is such a high paying industry, people respect us for our commendable honesty and integrity.
  • Miss Plato, I'm sorry to hear that. Mr. Financier was a sound fellow.

    Mr. Eagles, and if they do?

    That also neglects the importance of being able to govern ourselves, and hold those who pass laws over us to account (which cannot be done with the ECJ, or QMV). You're weighing one possible downside more heavily than a positive certainty which is (in my view) greater still.
  • Mr. Urquhart, the vote's around 4 months away, so I'd say 120, give or take.
  • Miss Plato, I'm sorry to hear that. Mr. Financier was a sound fellow.

    Mr. Eagles, and if they do?

    That also neglects the importance of being able to govern ourselves, and hold those who pass laws over us to account (which cannot be done with the ECJ, or QMV). You're weighing one possible downside more heavily than a positive certainty which is (in my view) greater still.

    Same applies with NATO, the unelected could take us into a war we oppose.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,362
    edited February 2016

    Mr. Eagles, that's an argument for the certainty of servitude over the uncertainty of freedom.

    Better to be in servitude and earning millions/billions than being free and not having a pot to piss in
    spoken like a lawyer
    There's a reason why the legal profession is such a high paying industry, people respect us for our commendable honesty and integrity.
    Nah it's the price of social ostracism, it's like if paedos could charge.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,781
    edited February 2016



    Two Guys from Brussels (2 employees)

    Who are surprisingly two guys from Brussels...Frankly if they would have been better to have just used 100 good sized firms, than anybody with a pulse to make it to 200...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NYMf3R1JA68
  • Mr. Eagles, that's an argument for the certainty of servitude over the uncertainty of freedom.

    Better to be in servitude and earning millions/billions than being free and not having a pot to piss in
    spoken like a lawyer
    There's a reason why the legal profession is such a high paying industry, people respect us for our commendable honesty and integrity.
    Nah it's the price of social ostracism, it's like if paedos could charge.
    That's an absolutely outrageous slur. Gary Glitter and the ghost of Jimmy Savile will be suing you.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,362

    Mr. Eagles, that's an argument for the certainty of servitude over the uncertainty of freedom.

    Better to be in servitude and earning millions/billions than being free and not having a pot to piss in
    spoken like a lawyer
    There's a reason why the legal profession is such a high paying industry, people respect us for our commendable honesty and integrity.
    Nah it's the price of social ostracism, it's like if paedos could charge.
    That's an absolutely outrageous slur. Gary Glitter and the ghost of Jimmy Savile will be suing you.
    they're probably better lawyers
  • The interesting thing is when the decline occurred. The link from the tweet back to the university web site reveals that standards fell between the 1960s and 90s but have been stable since then.
    http://www.lboro.ac.uk/news-events/news/2016/february/maths-a-level-standards.html

    Loughborough study finds today's grade B is equivalent to a 1960s grade E #alevel #maths: https://t.co/eJjGyALp1R https://t.co/lwW9TBQCOj

  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115

    Fenster said:

    Is Financier on that list of top business people?

    Where is he these days? Maybe he's gone bust?
    :) Running Enron, last I heard LOL
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Wanderer said:

    JackW said:

    I suspect that the party will go for a unifying candidate, one from either side of this European split - look out for a Cabinet member who clearly is only softly supporting Leave or Remain.

    Ahem.

    Theresa May.

    Obvious, innit?

    (Assuming a Remain result, of course)
    I'd agree save one point.

    May does at times exude a somewhat sour disposition. I'm not intimating that she adopt a forced Blair smile but the ability to empathize, genuine or not, smile and appear more clubbable would go a long way.

    Clearly a long stint at the Home Office does not enhance the chuckle muscles but even "The Great She Elephant" was often amused and showed it whilst retaining the nuclear handbag for necessary chastisement of the errant faithful and non believers.
    Interesting. I think May has a rather charming smile when she uses it in interviews. You're right that she often doesn't use it.

    Imo (and this is just a hunch) she would connect very well with swing voters who would find her reasonable and reassuring. She would also provide a change in style from Cameron without herself appearing weird or extreme.
    Don't disagree. She just needs to burnish her presentation skills somewhat.

    I also believe her spell at the home office has necessarily hardened her to the realities of both high office and the dangerous world we live in.

    On balance I think she is the best candidate to succeed Cameron.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,240

    Charles said:

    JohnO said:

    JohnO said:

    Norm said:

    JohnO said:

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/02/tories-are-approaching-the-referendum-in-the-wrong-way/

    At the party meeting with the Prime Minister last night, MPs including Steve Baker asked Cameron to ‘be nice to Boris’, not because they are particularly worried about the Mayor’s spirit being crushed but because there is some dismay in the him.
    "A bit of a tease"? By any measure Boris Johnson behaved appallingly. He deserves what he got. It was still a mistake on the Prime Minister's part, of course.

    Incidentally, Leavers need a more coherent story about the Prime Minister. They'll struggle to persuade the public that he's both a brutal bully and a wimp.
    I imagine David Davis must be feeling a bit sour having lost the crown of Tory Shit of the Decade to Boris.
    I'm never been a paricular Boris fan but why exactly did he behave appallingly. Was it because he ruined the PMs carefully choreographed stage show at the weekend? Like Boris was I'm still on the fence in this debate but overt control freakery is something that never appeals.
    By all accounts (I accept we here will never know) he had transmitted pretty strong assurances to Cameron that he would support Remain, but then ratted at the
    which way are you swinging Mr O ?
    Ooh, you are awful.....

    Back to Remain.
    John, my friend and his colleagues have analysed the protections for the City of London/The Financial Services industry.

    They've concluded they aren't robust as they'd like, and reliant on others in the EU rather than us having a veto/protection.

    HOWEVER, all things considered they will be recommending me and others vote Remain, as Leave have yet to even address if we'll still have access to all the advantages of access to the single market/the financial passport.
    The most likely (and most rational) outcome is that they will, but you can't guarantee it as it will be the result of a negotiation

    p.s you mean @Cyclefree was right yesterday. Now there's a surprise ;)
    His view is the EU have handled the Eurozone/Greek and Immigrant crisises very badly, they will deal with Brexit just as badly.

    Plus they might harsh on us in the exit terms to stop others leaving. pour encourager les autres

    We've got to keep in with them because they're both incompetent and malicious?

    It's a view I suppose.
  • JackW said:

    Wanderer said:

    JackW said:

    I suspect that the party will go for a unifying candidate, one from either side of this European split - look out for a Cabinet member who clearly is only softly supporting Leave or Remain.

    Ahem.

    Theresa May.

    Obvious, innit?

    (Assuming a Remain result, of course)
    I'd agree save one point.

    May does at times exude a somewhat sour disposition. I'm not intimating that she adopt a forced Blair smile but the ability to empathize, genuine or not, smile and appear more clubbable would go a long way.

    Clearly a long stint at the Home Office does not enhance the chuckle muscles but even "The Great She Elephant" was often amused and showed it whilst retaining the nuclear handbag for necessary chastisement of the errant faithful and non believers.
    Interesting. I think May has a rather charming smile when she uses it in interviews. You're right that she often doesn't use it.

    Imo (and this is just a hunch) she would connect very well with swing voters who would find her reasonable and reassuring. She would also provide a change in style from Cameron without herself appearing weird or extreme.
    Don't disagree. She just needs to burnish her presentation skills somewhat.

    I also believe her spell at the home office has necessarily hardened her to the realities of both high office and the dangerous world we live in.

    On balance I think she is the best candidate to succeed Cameron.
    Theresa May would be objectively the best choice for the Conservatives if they are looking to appeal to the wider electorate. The evidence that they are thinking about that aspect of the job at all is lacking.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    The Nabavi take on the Betfair PM after Cameron market. (In each case I've given the best odds to back, although some of the amounts available are piddling. I've not bothered with all of the Labour no-hopers):

    Osborne 4.3 About right
    Boris 3.85 Far too short
    Corbyn 15.5 Are they completely mad?
    Javid 18.5 Too short
    May 13.5 Very good value
    Hunt 30.0 Too short
    Benn 22 Bonkers
    Nandy 70.0 Daft
    David Miliband 32.0 You cannot be serious!
    Dan Jarvis 28.0 Bonkers
    Hammond 40.0 A bit long
    Michael Gove 20.0 About right
    Paterson 130.0 Possible good-value long-shot
    Liz Truss 140.0 Possible good-value long-shot
    Nicky Morgan 160.0 A bit short
    Priti Patel 22.0 Too short
    Michael Fallon 200.0 Meh
    Justine Greening 200.0 Possible good-value long-shot

    Thanks for that. My position is quite in line with that (not entirely coincidentally since I followed your advice on Paterson and one or two others).
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    It's risible, but the 24hr media just accept press releases far to often.

    "Big firms warn EU exit threatens jobs" says the BBC news front headline, about the letter in the Times.

    Amongst those "big firms" are - as well as the aforementioned pub landlord - the following (who should all be given a Queens Award for Self-Publicitiy):

    Waterloo Tea Limited (10 employees)

    True Bridge Consultancy (3 employees)

    The Prof's Tuition (4 employees)

    Kendall Contracting (4 employees)

    The Green Stationery Company (3 employees)

    VIP Labels (2 employees)

    and my personal fav -

    Two Guys from Brussels (2 employees)

  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited February 2016
    Adam Afriyie
    With only scraps offered by an intransigent & arrogant EU elite, we'll be stronger, safer and better off out @vote_leave @Grassroots_Out
  • Sean_F said:

    Charles said:

    JohnO said:

    JohnO said:

    Norm said:

    JohnO said:

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/02/tories-are-approaching-the-referendum-in-the-wrong-way/

    At the party meeting with the Prime Minister last night, MPs including Steve Baker asked Cameron to ‘be nice to Boris’, not because they are particularly worried about the Mayor’s spirit being crushed but because there is some dismay in the him.
    "A bit of a tease"? By any measure Boris Johnson behaved appallingly. He deserves what he got. It was still a mistake on the Prime Minister's part, of course.

    Incidentally, Leavers need a more coherent story about the Prime Minister. They'll struggle to persuade the public that he's both a brutal bully and a wimp.
    I imagine David Davis must be feeling a bit sour having lost the crown of Tory Shit of the Decade to Boris.
    I'm never been a paricular Boris fan but why exactly did he behave appallingly. Was it because he ruined the PMs carefully choreographed stage show at the weekend? Like Boris was I'm still on the fence in this debate but overt control freakery is somethinge
    which way are you swinging Mr O ?
    Ooh, you are awful.....

    Back to Remain.
    John, my friend and his colleagues have analysed the protections for the City of London/The Financial Services industry.

    They've concluded they aren't robust as they'd like, and reliant on others in the EU rather than us having a veto/protection.

    HOWEVER, all things considered they will be recommending me and others vote Remain, as Leave have yet to even address if we'll still have access to all the advantages of access to the single market/the financial passport.
    The most likely (and most rational) outcome is that they will, but you can't guarantee it as it will be the result of a negotiation

    p.s you mean @Cyclefree was right yesterday. Now there's a surprise ;)
    His view is the EU have handled the Eurozone/Greek and Immigrant crisises very badly, they will deal with Brexit just as badly.

    Plus they might harsh on us in the exit terms to stop others leaving. pour encourager les autres
    We've got to keep in with them because they're both incompetent and malicious?

    It's a view I suppose.
    Is the cost of access to the single market.

    Some see that as a price worth paying.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited February 2016
    JohnO said:

    I suspect that the party will go for a unifying candidate, one from either side of this European split - look out for a Cabinet member who clearly is only softly supporting Leave or Remain.

    Ahem.

    Theresa May.

    Obvious, innit?

    (Assuming a Remain result, of course)
    Yes, never really a fan of hers but there's plenty worse!
    Nah, she has the charisma of a speak-your-weight machine, and is never going to be forgiven for her "nasty party" remarks.

    (Not to mention she talks complete totalitarian bollocks on Cyber Security)
    (And talks big on reducing immigration and then doesn't)
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    Worth reposting I think...among the PM's list of top business people supporting the EU

    Waterloo Tea Limited (10 employees)

    True Bridge Consultancy (3 employees)

    The Prof's Tuition (4 employees)

    Kendall Contracting (4 employees)

    The Green Stationery Company (3 employees)

    VIP Labels (2 employees)

    and my personal fav -

    Two Guys from Brussels (2 employees)


    The sound of a barrel being scraped is deafening. Are these some of his wife's chums he rang up on Sunday afternoon to make up the numbers?

    Perhaps I should do a straw poll of the various tradespeople I use and get their views...I'm pretty sure Tony the stonemason is for LEAVE, and Eric the roofer...

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,240

    Mr. Eagles, that's an argument for the certainty of servitude over the uncertainty of freedom.

    Better to be in servitude and earning millions/billions than being free and not having a pot to piss in
    spoken like a lawyer
    There's a reason why the legal profession is such a high paying industry, people respect us for our commendable honesty and integrity.
    Nah it's the price of social ostracism, it's like if paedos could charge.
    LOL! There *are* more unpopular professions than the legal profession. Not many, but they do exist.
  • Theresa May would be objectively the best choice for the Conservatives if they are looking to appeal to the wider electorate. The evidence that they are thinking about that aspect of the job at all is lacking.

    But we are in the middle of the nervous breakdown. After the catharsis of the referendum (especially if it's a reasonably clear Remain result), things will look very different. It's a cardinal mistake to think that the choice will be made on the emotions of yesterday.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,280

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/02/tories-are-approaching-the-referendum-in-the-wrong-way/

    At the party meeting with the Prime Minister last night, MPs including Steve Baker asked Cameron to ‘be nice to Boris’, not because they are particularly worried about the Mayor’s spirit being crushed but because there is some dismay in the party that the referendum debate is already getting so personal.

    One Outer who likes Cameron observes sadly that ‘he was silly letting his temper show but it was sadly typical. He finds being challenged irksome’. Cameron probably also feels that the Mayor was a bit of a tease right up to the last minute, whereupon he humiliated him.
    "A bit of a tease"? By any measure Boris Johnson behaved appallingly. He deserves what he got. It was still a mistake on the Prime Minister's part, of course.

    Incidentally, Leavers need a more coherent story about the Prime Minister. They'll struggle to persuade the public that he's both a brutal bully and a wimp.

    Bullies often are wimps when faced with people stronger than they are. A case against the PM is that he is very effective in the Commons against weak and unprepared opponents (Milliband, Corbyn, Boris yesterday) but less so when negotiating with those better prepared than him.

    The skills needed for effective and caustic put downs in a debating chamber are not the skills needed for patient, effective, tenacious negotiations on often opaque detail. Cameron has the former. It is not at all clear that he has the latter.

  • LucyJonesLucyJones Posts: 651
    edited February 2016

    I've tried getting in touch with his home and work email addresses.

    I fear he may be no longer with us. We were pretty good friends.

    Fenster said:

    Is Financier on that list of top business people?

    Where is he these days? Maybe he's gone bust?
    I've noticed Josias Jessop hasn't been around recently. Hope he is okay - think he was recovering from meningitis.

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Adam Afriyie
    With only scraps offered by an intransigent & arrogant EU elite, we'll be stronger, safer and better off out @vote_leave @Grassroots_Out

    He was the future once .... according to himself.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,362
    Sean_F said:

    Mr. Eagles, that's an argument for the certainty of servitude over the uncertainty of freedom.

    Better to be in servitude and earning millions/billions than being free and not having a pot to piss in
    spoken like a lawyer
    There's a reason why the legal profession is such a high paying industry, people respect us for our commendable honesty and integrity.
    Nah it's the price of social ostracism, it's like if paedos could charge.
    LOL! There *are* more unpopular professions than the legal profession. Not many, but they do exist.
    Manufacturing :-)
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,240

    Sean_F said:

    Charles said:

    JohnO said:

    JohnO said:

    Norm said:

    JohnO said:

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/02/tories-are-approaching-the-referendum-in-the-wrong-way/

    At the party meeting with the Prime Minister last night, MPs including Steve Baker asked Cameron to ‘be nice to Boris’, not because they are particularly worried about the Mayor’s spirit being crushed but because there is some dismay in the him.
    "A bit of a tease"? By any measure Boris Johnson behaved appallingly. He deserves what he got. It was still a mistake on the Prime Minister's part, of course.

    Incidentally, Leavers need a more coherent story about the Prime Minister. They'll struggle to persuade the public that he's both a brutal bully and a wimp.
    I imagine David Davis must be feeling a bit sour having lost the crown of Tory Shit of the Decade to Boris.
    I'm never been a paricular Boris fan but why exactly did he behave appallingly. Was it because he ruined the PMs carefully choreographed stage show at the weekend? Like Boris was I'm still on the fence in this debate but overt control freakery is somethinge
    which way are you swinging Mr O ?
    Ooh, you are awful.....

    Back to Remain.
    John, my friend and his colleagues have analysed the protections for the City of London/The Financial Services industry.

    They've concluded they aren't robust as they'd like, and reliant on others in the EU rather than us having a veto/protection.

    HOWEVER, all things considered they will be recommending me and others vote Remain, as Leave have yet to even address if we'll still have access to all the advantages of access to the single market/the financial passport.
    The most likely (and most rational) outcome is that they will, but you can't guarantee it as it will be the result of a negotiation

    p.s you mean @Cyclefree was right yesterday. Now there's a surprise ;)

    Plus they might harsh on us in the exit terms to stop others leaving. pour encourager les autres
    We've got to keep in with them because they're both incompetent and malicious?

    It's a view I suppose.
    Is the cost of access to the single market.

    Some see that as a price worth paying.
    That sounds to me like giving someone a choice between eating broken glass or drinking acid.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    Wanderer said:

    JackW said:

    I suspect that the party will go for a unifying candidate, one from either side of this European split - look out for a Cabinet member who clearly is only softly supporting Leave or Remain.

    Ahem.

    Theresa May.

    Obvious, innit?

    (Assuming a Remain result, of course)
    I'd agree save one point.

    May does at times exude a somewhat sour disposition. I'm not intimating that she adopt a forced Blair smile but the ability to empathize, genuine or not, smile and appear more clubbable would go a long way.

    Clearly a long stint at the Home Office does not enhance the chuckle muscles but even "The Great She Elephant" was often amused and showed it whilst retaining the nuclear handbag for necessary chastisement of the errant faithful and non believers.
    Interesting. I think May has a rather charming smile when she uses it in interviews. You're right that she often doesn't use it.

    Imo (and this is just a hunch) she would connect very well with swing voters who would find her reasonable and reassuring. She would also provide a change in style from Cameron without herself appearing weird or extreme.
    Don't disagree. She just needs to burnish her presentation skills somewhat.

    I also believe her spell at the home office has necessarily hardened her to the realities of both high office and the dangerous world we live in.

    On balance I think she is the best candidate to succeed Cameron.
    Theresa May would be objectively the best choice for the Conservatives if they are looking to appeal to the wider electorate. The evidence that they are thinking about that aspect of the job at all is lacking.
    It a long game still.
  • Theresa May would be objectively the best choice for the Conservatives if they are looking to appeal to the wider electorate. The evidence that they are thinking about that aspect of the job at all is lacking.

    But we are in the middle of the nervous breakdown. After the catharsis of the referendum (especially if it's a reasonably clear Remain result), things will look very different. It's a cardinal mistake to think that the choice will be made on the emotions of yesterday.
    I accept that. But why do you think that Conservative party members will not afford themselves the luxury of purity on the litmus test question when they believe they have the political space to do so?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,362
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Charles said:

    JohnO said:

    JohnO said:

    Norm said:

    JohnO said:

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/02/tories-are-approaching-the-referendum-in-the-wrong-way/

    At the party meeting with the Prime Minister last night, MPs including Steve Baker asked Cameron to ‘be nice to Boris’, not because they are particularly worried about the Mayor’s spirit being crushed but because there is some dismay in the him.
    "A bit of a tease"? By any measure Boris Johnson behaved appallingly. He deserves what he got. It was still a mistake on the Prime Minister's part, of course.

    Incidentally, Leavers need a more coherent story about the Prime Minister. They'll struggle to persuade the public that he's both a brutal bully and a wimp.
    I imagine David Davis must be feeling a bit sour having lost the crown of Tory Shit of the Decade to Boris.
    I'm never been a paricular Boris fan but why exactly did he behave appallingly. Was it because he ruined the PMs carefully choreographed stage show at the weekend? Like Boris was I'm still on the fence in this debate but overt control freakery is somethinge
    which way are you swinging Mr O ?
    Ooh, you are awful.....

    Back to Remain.
    John, my friend and his colleagues have analysed the protections for the City of London/The Financial Services industry.

    They've concluded they aren't robust as they'd like, and reliant on others in the EU rather than us having a veto/protection.

    HOWEVER, all things considered they will be recommending me and others vote Remain, as Leave have yet to even address if we'll still have access to all the advantages of access to the single market/the financial passport.
    The most likely (and most rational) outcome is that they will, but you can't guarantee it as it will be the result of a negotiation

    p.s you mean @Cyclefree was right yesterday. Now there's a surprise ;)

    Plus they might harsh on us in the exit terms to stop others leaving. pour encourager les autres
    We've got to keep in with them because they're both incompetent and malicious?

    It's a view I suppose.
    Is the cost of access to the single market.

    Some see that as a price worth paying.
    That sounds to me like giving someone a choice between eating broken glass or drinking acid.
    Or a night out in Wigan as it's known
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    JohnO said:

    Norm said:

    JohnO said:

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/02/tories-are-approaching-the-referendum-in-the-wrong-way/

    At the party meeting with the Prime Minister last night, MPs including Steve Baker asked Cameron to ‘be nice to Boris’, not because they are particularly worried about the Mayor’s spirit being crushed but because there is some dismay in the party that the referendum debate is already getting so personal.

    One Outer who likes Cameron observes sadly that ‘he was silly letting his temper show but it was sadly typical. He finds being challenged irksome’. Cameron probably also feels that the Mayor was a bit of a tease right up to the last minute, whereupon he humiliated him.
    "A bit of a tease"? By any measure Boris Johnson behaved appallingly. He deserves what he got. It was still a mistake on the Prime Minister's part, of course.

    Incidentally, Leavers need a more coherent story about the Prime Minister. They'll struggle to persuade the public that he's both a brutal bully and a wimp.
    I imagine David Davis must be feeling a bit sour having lost the crown of Tory Shit of the Decade to Boris.
    I'm never been a paricular Boris fan but why exactly did he behave appallingly. Was it because he ruined the PMs carefully choreographed stage show at the weekend? Like Boris was I'm still on the fence in this debate but overt control freakery is something that never appeals.
    By all accounts (I accept we here will never know) he had transmitted pretty strong assurances to Cameron that he would support Remain, but then ratted at the last minute for his leadership ambitions. Every other Leaver, Gove, Villiers, Grayling, my own MP Dom Raab, have behaved with integrity and deserve respect during the campaign.

    Mrs BoJo came out pretty strongly for Leave in the papers last week, would be interesting to know what domestic considerations came into play if he was wavering all over the place as originally suggested.
  • JackW said:

    Adam Afriyie
    With only scraps offered by an intransigent & arrogant EU elite, we'll be stronger, safer and better off out @vote_leave @Grassroots_Out

    He was the future once .... according to himself.
    Soames was so right on Afriyie

    The Mail on Sunday reports that Soames told the MP for Windsor: "You are a chateau bottled nuclear powered ****. You are totally f***ing disloyal, a f***ing disgrace to your party, your fellow MPs, your prime minister and your country."

    "This is nothing more than a grotesque f***ing vanity project to promote your absurd f***ing campaign to become party leader. You aren’t up to it, man!"
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,454
    edited February 2016



    Two Guys from Brussels (2 employees)

    Who are surprisingly two guys from Brussels...Frankly if they would have been better to have just used 100 good sized firms, than anybody with a pulse to make it to 200...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NYMf3R1JA68
    Having watched that, my joy is complete... How could anyone not be convinced by the Remain case after such a compelling argument from two such intellectual giants?
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I've been concerned too. And @callum
    LucyJones said:


    I've tried getting in touch with his home and work email addresses.

    I fear he may be no longer with us. We were pretty good friends.

    Fenster said:

    Is Financier on that list of top business people?

    Where is he these days? Maybe he's gone bust?
    I've noticed Josias Jessop hasn't been around recently. Hope he is okay - think he was recovering from meningitis.

  • "Big firms warn EU exit threatens jobs" says the BBC news front headline, about the letter in the Times.

    Amongst those "big firms" are - as well as the aforementioned pub landlord - the following (who should all be given a Queens Award for Self-Publicitiy):

    Waterloo Tea Limited (10 employees)

    True Bridge Consultancy (3 employees)

    The Prof's Tuition (4 employees)

    Kendall Contracting (4 employees)

    The Green Stationery Company (3 employees)

    VIP Labels (2 employees)

    and my personal fav -

    Two Guys from Brussels (2 employees)

    If there are two million businesses in the UK it seem pretty pathetic to only get a couple hundred on the letter.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited February 2016

    I accept that. But why do you think that Conservative party members will not afford themselves the luxury of purity on the litmus test question when they believe they have the political space to do so?

    It's not as much of a litmus test question as it appears either from the media, or most certainly from the comments here. Of course as a question it's disproportionately salient at the moment, but that's misleading.

    When the result is in, what will be the point of the litmus test? The die will be cast, if you excuse the mixed metaphor. It will help not to have shown an unedifying degree of enthusiasm for the EU, but I don't think Leave/Remain by itself will be crucial (assuming a Remain result).
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:



    I don't want to be the member of a club that will threaten me to stop me leaving

    Don't join White's then!
    Boodles.
  • F1: from the BBC livefeed:
    "Meanwhile, Horner said Bernie Ecclestone will table a proposal to reverse the top 10 qualifiers on the grid to try to increase excitement.”

    Ecclestone should resign. Tired of him coming out with nonsense (cf medals and sprinklers).
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    Adam Afriyie
    With only scraps offered by an intransigent & arrogant EU elite, we'll be stronger, safer and better off out @vote_leave @Grassroots_Out

    He was the future once .... according to himself.
    Soames was so right on Afriyie

    The Mail on Sunday reports that Soames told the MP for Windsor: "You are a chateau bottled nuclear powered ****. You are totally f***ing disloyal, a f***ing disgrace to your party, your fellow MPs, your prime minister and your country."

    "This is nothing more than a grotesque f***ing vanity project to promote your absurd f***ing campaign to become party leader. You aren’t up to it, man!"
    I fear they will not be exchanging Christmas cards in the coming years.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ullies often are wimps when faced with people stronger than they are.

    Absolutely. The very definition of a bully is surely someone who prays on those weaker than him, and crawls to those his equal or above.

    Its a theme out might develop. Its a shame David Cameron didn;t put an ounce of his supposed toughness into his negotiations with Francois Hollande.
  • Mr. Eagles, does NATO demand we pay billions every year in membership fees? Does it try to impose laws upon us?

    You know the two organisations are fundamentally different. But even so, that's irrelevant, because the debate is about the EU.

    Miss Jones, I thought he'd recovered from that?
  • JackW said:

    JackW said:

    Adam Afriyie
    With only scraps offered by an intransigent & arrogant EU elite, we'll be stronger, safer and better off out @vote_leave @Grassroots_Out

    He was the future once .... according to himself.
    Soames was so right on Afriyie

    The Mail on Sunday reports that Soames told the MP for Windsor: "You are a chateau bottled nuclear powered ****. You are totally f***ing disloyal, a f***ing disgrace to your party, your fellow MPs, your prime minister and your country."

    "This is nothing more than a grotesque f***ing vanity project to promote your absurd f***ing campaign to become party leader. You aren’t up to it, man!"
    I fear they will not be exchanging Christmas cards in the coming years.
    I've become a real fan of Nick Soames in recent weeks. His Twitter account is hilarious
  • Mr. Eagles, does NATO demand we pay billions every year in membership fees? Does it try to impose laws upon us?

    You know the two organisations are fundamentally different. But even so, that's irrelevant, because the debate is about the EU.

    Miss Jones, I thought he'd recovered from that?

    It demands we spend a certain amount on Defence spending whether we wish to or not.
  • I accept that. But why do you think that Conservative party members will not afford themselves the luxury of purity on the litmus test question when they believe they have the political space to do so?

    It's not as much of a litmus test question as it appears either from the media, or most certainly from the comments here. Of course as a question it's disproportionately salient at the moment, but that's misleading.

    When the result is in, what will be the point of the litmus test? The die will be cast, if you excuse the mixed metaphor. It will help not to have shown an unedifying degree of enthusiasm for the EU, but I don't think Leave/Remain by itself will be crucial (assuming a Remain result).
    As I said in the thread header, much will depend on the result of the referendum. If Remain wins narrowly, the majority of Conservative members will have voted Leave and will be itching for a third bite at the cherry.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    Mr. Eagles, that's an argument for the certainty of servitude over the uncertainty of freedom.

    Better to be in servitude and earning millions/billions than being free and not having a pot to piss in
    spoken like a lawyer
    There's a reason why the legal profession is such a high paying industry, people respect us for our commendable honesty and integrity.
    I'd noticed that :grin:
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,240
    Cyclefree said:

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/02/tories-are-approaching-the-referendum-in-the-wrong-way/

    At the party meeting with the Prime Minister last night, MPs including Steve Baker asked Cameron to ‘be nice to Boris’, not because they are particularly worried about the Mayor’s spirit being crushed but because there is some dismay in the party that the referendum debate is already getting so personal.

    One Outer who likes Cameron observes sadly that ‘he was silly letting his temper show but it was sadly typical. He finds being challenged irksome’. Cameron probably also feels that the Mayor was a bit of a tease right up to the last minute, whereupon he humiliated him.
    "A bit of a tease"? By any measure Boris Johnson behaved appallingly. He deserves what he got. It was still a mistake on the Prime Minister's part, of course.

    Incidentally, Leavers need a more coherent story about the Prime Minister. They'll struggle to persuade the public that he's both a brutal bully and a wimp.
    Bullies often are wimps when faced with people stronger than they are. A case against the PM is that he is very effective in the Commons against weak and unprepared opponents (Milliband, Corbyn, Boris yesterday) but less so when negotiating with those better prepared than him.

    The skills needed for effective and caustic put downs in a debating chamber are not the skills needed for patient, effective, tenacious negotiations on often opaque detail. Cameron has the former. It is not at all clear that he has the latter.



    In any case, we're only being given one side of the story.

    It could just as easily be that Johnson told Cameron he was undecided on Friday, e-mailed him on Saturday, and texted him on Sunday.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067

    F1: from the BBC livefeed:
    "Meanwhile, Horner said Bernie Ecclestone will table a proposal to reverse the top 10 qualifiers on the grid to try to increase excitement.”

    Ecclestone should resign. Tired of him coming out with nonsense (cf medals and sprinklers).

    Maybe but F1 needs radical reform otherwise it will die. Season after season it's becoming more of a borefest...
  • JackW said:

    Adam Afriyie
    With only scraps offered by an intransigent & arrogant EU elite, we'll be stronger, safer and better off out @vote_leave @Grassroots_Out

    He was the future once .... according to himself.
    Soames was so right on Afriyie

    The Mail on Sunday reports that Soames told the MP for Windsor: "You are a chateau bottled nuclear powered ****. You are totally f***ing disloyal, a f***ing disgrace to your party, your fellow MPs, your prime minister and your country."

    "This is nothing more than a grotesque f***ing vanity project to promote your absurd f***ing campaign to become party leader. You aren’t up to it, man!"
    My respect for the wardrobe has just increased exponentially, - from a very low base however.
  • As I said in the thread header, much will depend on the result of the referendum. If Remain wins narrowly, the majority of Conservative members will have voted Leave and will be itching for a third bite at the cherry.

    Even if that's true, and I'm not sure it is, there's clearly not going to be another bite at the cherry anytime soon. So it will be shelved as a hot issue for a while.
  • Mr. S, things do need to change, but Ecclestone's idiotic comments [which he knows full well are stupid] grate. He's a large part of the problems the sport has.

    Mr. Eagles, we're only meeting that by accounting bullshit (moving some spending from another department and labelling it Defence) and most members don't hit 2%, and there's no penalty beyond the Frown of Disapproval.

    And that's irrelevant to a debate about whether we should be in the EU.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Mr. Eagles, does NATO demand we pay billions every year in membership fees? Does it try to impose laws upon us?

    You know the two organisations are fundamentally different. But even so, that's irrelevant, because the debate is about the EU.

    Miss Jones, I thought he'd recovered from that?

    It demands we spend a certain amount on Defence spending whether we wish to or not.
    I shall have a gander .... in the hope that Soames knows a decent resource for finding wardrobe keys .... :smile:
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,797
    I'm very much an inner but exit is tempting in that it would help precipitate the managed decline of the city. A too large financial sector is not healthy for an economy, which should be focusing on financing the needs of industry i.e producing the stuff we really need. Of course part of the reason we have such large financial sector is that we are doing much of the financing for the rest of the world. A good thing you might say. But 2008 was a game-changer. It was a reminder that financial institutions are not 100% secure and need the state to stand behind them. Either we are part of a broader banking union and accept an external regulator or we manage down the system.
  • Mr. Eagles, does NATO demand we pay billions every year in membership fees? Does it try to impose laws upon us?

    You know the two organisations are fundamentally different. But even so, that's irrelevant, because the debate is about the EU.

    Miss Jones, I thought he'd recovered from that?

    I'm not an expert, but from what I understand, it can take months to fully recover from viral meningitis, which is what I think he'd had.

  • As I said in the thread header, much will depend on the result of the referendum. If Remain wins narrowly, the majority of Conservative members will have voted Leave and will be itching for a third bite at the cherry.

    Even if that's true, and I'm not sure it is, there's clearly not going to be another bite at the cherry anytime soon. So it will be shelved as a hot issue for a while.
    Really? With the state of the Eurozone? The need for real reform inside the EC? It is foolish to believe that the EC is on some golden path and will just carry on as is. Remaining is not a choice for people that want a settled situation.
  • Miss Jones, hmm. Hopefully Mr. Jessop's alright.
  • Really? With the state of the Eurozone? The need for real reform inside the EC? It is foolish to believe that the EC is on some golden path and will just carry on as is. Remaining is not a choice for people that want a settled situation.

    I thought it was the EU that was supposed to show how wicked it is by not accepting the results of referendums
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited February 2016

    JackW said:

    Adam Afriyie
    With only scraps offered by an intransigent & arrogant EU elite, we'll be stronger, safer and better off out @vote_leave @Grassroots_Out

    He was the future once .... according to himself.
    Soames was so right on Afriyie

    The Mail on Sunday reports that Soames told the MP for Windsor: "You are a chateau bottled nuclear powered ****. You are totally f***ing disloyal, a f***ing disgrace to your party, your fellow MPs, your prime minister and your country."

    "This is nothing more than a grotesque f***ing vanity project to promote your absurd f***ing campaign to become party leader. You aren’t up to it, man!"
    For anyone looking for the causes of a great Conservative split just look at the attitude of the toadying supporters of Cameron. They do Cameron no favours. It is the people with more balance that Cameron should listen to.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    Adam Afriyie
    With only scraps offered by an intransigent & arrogant EU elite, we'll be stronger, safer and better off out @vote_leave @Grassroots_Out

    He was the future once .... according to himself.
    Soames was so right on Afriyie

    The Mail on Sunday reports that Soames told the MP for Windsor: "You are a chateau bottled nuclear powered ****. You are totally f***ing disloyal, a f***ing disgrace to your party, your fellow MPs, your prime minister and your country."

    "This is nothing more than a grotesque f***ing vanity project to promote your absurd f***ing campaign to become party leader. You aren’t up to it, man!"
    My respect for the wardrobe has just increased exponentially, - from a very low base however.
    I think you'll find Nicholas Soames wardrobe has a massively impressive base but is somewhat more challenged in other key areas ....

  • As I understand it the Tory MPs elect two of their number by exhaustive ballot for the members of the party to select one as leader.

    Why would those two not be Osborne and Johnson?
  • JackW said:

    I suspect that the party will go for a unifying candidate, one from either side of this European split - look out for a Cabinet member who clearly is only softly supporting Leave or Remain.

    Ahem.

    Theresa May.

    Obvious, innit?

    (Assuming a Remain result, of course)
    I'd agree save one point.

    May does at times exude a somewhat sour disposition. I'm not intimating that she adopt a forced Blair smile but the ability to empathize, genuine or not, smile and appear more clubbable would go a long way.

    Clearly a long stint at the Home Office does not enhance the chuckle muscles but even "The Great She Elephant" was often amused and showed it whilst retaining the nuclear handbag for necessary chastisement of the errant faithful and non believers.
    Here's a pic of Theresa May smiling a bit: http://www.maidenhead-advertiser.co.uk/News/Areas/Maidenhead/Theresa-May-and-Captain-Jack-Sparrow-help-open-new-Londis-store-21122015.htm
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    JohnO said:

    JohnO said:

    Norm said:

    JohnO said:

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/02/tories-are-approaching-the-referendum-in-the-wrong-way/

    At the party meeting with the Prime Minister last night, MPs including Steve Baker asked Cameron to ‘be nice to Boris’, not because they are particularly worried about the Mayor’s spirit being crushed but because there is some dismay in the him.
    "A bit of a tease"? By any measure Boris Johnson behaved appallingly. He deserves what he got. It was still a mistake on the Prime Minister's part, of course.

    Incidentally, Leavers need a more coherent story about the Prime Minister. They'll struggle to persuade the public that he's both a brutal bully and a wimp.
    I imagine David Davis must be feeling a bit sour having lost the crown of Tory Shit of the Decade to Boris.
    I'm never been a paricular Boris fan but why exactly did he behave appallingly. Was it because he ruined the PMs carefully choreographed stage show at the weekend? Like Boris was I'm still on the fence in this debate but overt control freakery is something that never appeals.
    By all accounts (I accept we here will never know) he had transmitted pretty strong assurances to Cameron that he would support Remain, but then ratted at the
    which way are you swinging Mr O ?
    Ooh, you are awful.....

    Back to Remain.
    John, my friend and his colleagues have analysed the protections for the City of London/The Financial Services industry.

    They've concluded they aren't robust as they'd like, and reliant on others in the EU rather than us having a veto/protection.



    p.s you mean @Cyclefree was right yesterday. Now there's a surprise ;)
    His view is the EU have handled the Eurozone/Greek and Immigrant crisises very badly, they will deal with Brexit just as badly.

    Plus they might harsh on us in the exit terms to stop others leaving. pour encourager les autres
    I don't want to be the member of a club that will threaten me to stop me leaving
    Don't join White's then!
    Or Talktalk.
  • Mr. JB, because the PCP don't want Johnson?

    They should go for Patel. She's clearly the more attractive proposition.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    Adam Afriyie
    With only scraps offered by an intransigent & arrogant EU elite, we'll be stronger, safer and better off out @vote_leave @Grassroots_Out

    He was the future once .... according to himself.
    Soames was so right on Afriyie

    The Mail on Sunday reports that Soames told the MP for Windsor: "You are a chateau bottled nuclear powered ****. You are totally f***ing disloyal, a f***ing disgrace to your party, your fellow MPs, your prime minister and your country."

    "This is nothing more than a grotesque f***ing vanity project to promote your absurd f***ing campaign to become party leader. You aren’t up to it, man!"
    For anyone looking for the causes of a great Conservative split just look at the attitude of the toadying supporters of Cameron. They do Cameron no favours. It is the people with more balance that Cameron should listen to.
    Nicholas Soames as Mr Toad .... it certainly doesn't require a leap of faith.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    I see Nus Ghani's defence of her decision to back out is getting plenty of compliments on tw8tter.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    I'm very much an inner but exit is tempting in that it would help precipitate the managed decline of the city. A too large financial sector is not healthy for an economy, which should be focusing on financing the needs of industry i.e producing the stuff we really need. Of course part of the reason we have such large financial sector is that we are doing much of the financing for the rest of the world. A good thing you might say. But 2008 was a game-changer. It was a reminder that financial institutions are not 100% secure and need the state to stand behind them. Either we are part of a broader banking union and accept an external regulator or we manage down the system.

    FFS. If you have a problem with the size of the financial services, dont aim to make it smaller, aim to grow the rest of your economy.

    It's like saying Scotland is too dependent on oil revenue, so lets stop drilling for the stuff.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,240
    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    Adam Afriyie
    With only scraps offered by an intransigent & arrogant EU elite, we'll be stronger, safer and better off out @vote_leave @Grassroots_Out

    He was the future once .... according to himself.
    Soames was so right on Afriyie

    The Mail on Sunday reports that Soames told the MP for Windsor: "You are a chateau bottled nuclear powered ****. You are totally f***ing disloyal, a f***ing disgrace to your party, your fellow MPs, your prime minister and your country."

    "This is nothing more than a grotesque f***ing vanity project to promote your absurd f***ing campaign to become party leader. You aren’t up to it, man!"
    For anyone looking for the causes of a great Conservative split just look at the attitude of the toadying supporters of Cameron. They do Cameron no favours. It is the people with more balance that Cameron should listen to.
    Nicholas Soames as Mr Toad .... it certainly doesn't require a leap of faith.
    Nicholas Soames is Baron Harkonnen from Dune.
  • Really? With the state of the Eurozone? The need for real reform inside the EC? It is foolish to believe that the EC is on some golden path and will just carry on as is. Remaining is not a choice for people that want a settled situation.

    I thought it was the EU that was supposed to show how wicked it is by not accepting the results of referendums
    I would accept the outcome but you wrote expecting no situation to develop where the EC was not put back into play by a crisis, or its failure to keep to the Cameron deal etc.
  • Sean_F said:

    Cyclefree said:

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/02/tories-are-approaching-the-referendum-in-the-wrong-way/

    At the party meeting with the Prime Minister last night, MPs including Steve Baker asked Cameron to ‘be nice to Boris’, not because they are particularly worried about the Mayor’s spirit being crushed but because there is some dismay in the party that the referendum debate is already getting so personal.

    One Outer who likes Cameron observes sadly that ‘he was silly letting his temper show but it was sadly typical. He finds being challenged irksome’. Cameron probably also feels that the Mayor was a bit of a tease right up to the last minute, whereupon he humiliated him.
    "A bit of a tease"? By any measure Boris Johnson behaved appallingly. He deserves what he got. It was still a mistake on the Prime Minister's part, of course.

    Incidentally, Leavers need a more coherent story about the Prime Minister. They'll struggle to persuade the public that he's both a brutal bully and a wimp.
    Bullies often are wimps when faced with people stronger than they are. A case against the PM is that he is very effective in the Commons against weak and unprepared opponents (Milliband, Corbyn, Boris yesterday) but less so when negotiating with those better prepared than him.

    The skills needed for effective and caustic put downs in a debating chamber are not the skills needed for patient, effective, tenacious negotiations on often opaque detail. Cameron has the former. It is not at all clear that he has the latter.

    In any case, we're only being given one side of the story.

    It could just as easily be that Johnson told Cameron he was undecided on Friday, e-mailed him on Saturday, and texted him on Sunday.
    It is reported today that first Boris emailed him then when no reply came he texted him. But Cameron's people pushed out the "texted minutes beforehand" line.
  • taffys said:

    I see Nus Ghani's defence of her decision to back out is getting plenty of compliments on tw8tter.

    Yes, it's a sound piece, as I would expect of Nus.

    Text here:

    http://www.nusghani.org.uk/news/brexit-or-not-brexit
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Sean_F said:

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    Adam Afriyie
    With only scraps offered by an intransigent & arrogant EU elite, we'll be stronger, safer and better off out @vote_leave @Grassroots_Out

    He was the future once .... according to himself.
    Soames was so right on Afriyie

    The Mail on Sunday reports that Soames told the MP for Windsor: "You are a chateau bottled nuclear powered ****. You are totally f***ing disloyal, a f***ing disgrace to your party, your fellow MPs, your prime minister and your country."

    "This is nothing more than a grotesque f***ing vanity project to promote your absurd f***ing campaign to become party leader. You aren’t up to it, man!"
    For anyone looking for the causes of a great Conservative split just look at the attitude of the toadying supporters of Cameron. They do Cameron no favours. It is the people with more balance that Cameron should listen to.
    Nicholas Soames as Mr Toad .... it certainly doesn't require a leap of faith.
    Nicholas Soames is Baron Harkonnen from Dune.
    Surely Jabba the Soames?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,173
    @Morris_Dancer

    It seems Mclaren still have major engine issues and Alonso is not a happy bunny in Barcelona...
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    Interesting analysis with the correct calls, I think . The one nuance I would make for the Narrow Remain scenario is that whoever is chosen will have to accept the Remain result, ie a moderate Eurosceptic rather than a died in the wool one. Boris looks to be a suitable candidate.
  • I would accept the outcome but you wrote expecting no situation to develop where the EC was not put back into play by a crisis, or its failure to keep to the Cameron deal etc.

    That's a different point, though.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited February 2016

    As I said in the thread header, much will depend on the result of the referendum. If Remain wins narrowly, the majority of Conservative members will have voted Leave and will be itching for a third bite at the cherry.

    Even if that's true, and I'm not sure it is, there's clearly not going to be another bite at the cherry anytime soon. So it will be shelved as a hot issue for a while.
    How much of the renegotiation has to survive before we decide we have been sold a up.

    Legal opinions seem to feel that the emergency brake has a very high chance of being challenged at the ECJ almost immediately, what would be our position if that was shot down but the rest of the "deal" survived for the time being.

    What about if the Eurozone passed a banking regulation we didn't like by QMV, and when we challenged it, it got talked around for an evening and then went ahead anyway.
  • Adam Afriyie
    With only scraps offered by an intransigent & arrogant EU elite, we'll be stronger, safer and better off out @vote_leave @Grassroots_Out

    Is he backing both campaigns?
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    FarmersForBritain
    The popular media assumption that UK farmers will lose all subsidies if we leave the EU is purely speculation and has no basis in fact.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Sean_F said:

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    Adam Afriyie
    With only scraps offered by an intransigent & arrogant EU elite, we'll be stronger, safer and better off out @vote_leave @Grassroots_Out

    He was the future once .... according to himself.
    Soames was so right on Afriyie

    The Mail on Sunday reports that Soames told the MP for Windsor: "You are a chateau bottled nuclear powered ****. You are totally f***ing disloyal, a f***ing disgrace to your party, your fellow MPs, your prime minister and your country."

    "This is nothing more than a grotesque f***ing vanity project to promote your absurd f***ing campaign to become party leader. You aren’t up to it, man!"
    For anyone looking for the causes of a great Conservative split just look at the attitude of the toadying supporters of Cameron. They do Cameron no favours. It is the people with more balance that Cameron should listen to.
    Nicholas Soames as Mr Toad .... it certainly doesn't require a leap of faith.
    Nicholas Soames is Baron Harkonnen from Dune.
    :smile::smile:
  • Indigo said:

    How much of the renegotiation has to survive before we decide we have been sold a up.

    Legal opinions seem to feel that the emergency brake has a very high chance of being challenged at the ECJ almost immediately, what would be our position if that was shot down but the rest of the "deal" survived for the time being.

    Since the Leave side have tied themselves in knots telling us that the renegotiation achieved exactly nothing, whether it unravels or not is irrelevant, surely? They can't have it both ways.
  • JackW said:

    Adam Afriyie
    With only scraps offered by an intransigent & arrogant EU elite, we'll be stronger, safer and better off out @vote_leave @Grassroots_Out

    He was the future once .... according to himself.
    Soames was so right on Afriyie

    The Mail on Sunday reports that Soames told the MP for Windsor: "You are a chateau bottled nuclear powered ****. You are totally f***ing disloyal, a f***ing disgrace to your party, your fellow MPs, your prime minister and your country."

    "This is nothing more than a grotesque f***ing vanity project to promote your absurd f***ing campaign to become party leader. You aren’t up to it, man!"
    Soames is a rather unpleasant individual.
  • I've warmed up to Andy Burnham. This is his reaction to the 'who are you' heckle set to music

    https://twitter.com/Jacob4MK/status/701851075691868165
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,280

    Who was the wag who shouted "Who are you? " at Corbyn yesterday? That was probably the funniest thing I've ever seen in the house of commons. Pure comedy genius.

    Yes it was. And even funnier was Corbyn's po-faced response.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    Indigo said:

    How much of the renegotiation has to survive before we decide we have been sold a up.

    Legal opinions seem to feel that the emergency brake has a very high chance of being challenged at the ECJ almost immediately, what would be our position if that was shot down but the rest of the "deal" survived for the time being.

    Since the Leave side have tied themselves in knots telling us that the renegotiation achieved exactly nothing, whether it unravels or not is irrelevant, surely? They can't have it both ways.
    Okay you have had your smart arse point score, now answer the question.
  • Wonder how many days in a row the BBC can lead with the risks / leap in the dark style headlines on a potential EU exit?

    Their 9am BBC R4 News clip was a classic. Earlier in the Today programme was an interview with a Remainer the Virgin Money CEO and a Leaver an Investment chap. They both had almost equal time. But when the 9am news was run only the VirginMoney lady was quoted....
    Who would have thunk it?
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    Really? With the state of the Eurozone? The need for real reform inside the EC? It is foolish to believe that the EC is on some golden path and will just carry on as is. Remaining is not a choice for people that want a settled situation.

    I thought it was the EU that was supposed to show how wicked it is by not accepting the results of referendums
    I would accept the outcome but you wrote expecting no situation to develop where the EC was not put back into play by a crisis, or its failure to keep to the Cameron deal etc.
    Whatever it does will be interpreted as a failure to keep to the deal. (That's not meant as a jibe. It's just reality.)

    Should a Leaver take over after a narrrow Remain win they will come under pressure to call another referendum at every turn, especially if polling suggests the public has changed its mind. They will resist this as being politically farcical and they will then be attacked as "a secret Europhile" etc.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    She looks like a frog eying up a tasty looking fly
  • In short, in the event of a Brexit vote, Article 50 looks unavoidable. The idea that it could be held off to seek a renegotiation of ongoing membership is thwarted by domestic political imperatives. The idea that it could be resisted to secure better Brexit terms is equally scuppered by the interests of the other member states. The Prime Minister’s words on Article 50 are not just tactical.

    https://constitution-unit.com/2016/02/23/does-the-prime-minister-have-to-invoke-article-50-if-we-vote-for-brexit/
  • OMG, what a face, has either of the Eagle sisters ever broken into a smile?

    I've warmed up to Andy Burnham. This is his reaction to the 'who are you' heckle set to music

    https://twitter.com/Jacob4MK/status/701851075691868165

  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,797
    taffys said:

    ullies often are wimps when faced with people stronger than they are.

    Absolutely. The very definition of a bully is surely someone who prays on those weaker than him, and crawls to those his equal or above.

    Its a theme out might develop. Its a shame David Cameron didn;t put an ounce of his supposed toughness into his negotiations with Francois Hollande.

    This is such a fallacy. The idea that Dave didn't get a better deal because he didn't play hardball with the French (or anyone else). His first problem was that he's never got any cash in the bank from other EU leaders. Take this from Merkel a few months ago.

    http://indy100.independent.co.uk/article/angela-merkel-once-told-david-cameron-what-everyone-in-europe-really-thinks-of-him--Z1qKdognre

    Secondly his whole renegotiation strategy was based on the idea that he HAD to get something. It couldn't be seen to fail. So what he did was go around Europe not to make demands but to ask what they would give him. A clear sign of weakness - but since he was always determined to stay in, well his position was weak.

    Thirdly it was ludicrous to think he could ever transform the EU single-handedly in time for a 2017 referendum. Not least when they're rather more worried about migration and the Euro problems.

    Still there's little point in me mentioning this to all those Tories who have a fetish for handbagging and think that's the height of skillful diplomacy.
This discussion has been closed.