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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The impact of the EURef on next CON leader betting
In a rational world, the Conservative party would select the candidate who is best able to connect with the concerns of the public and develop and explain Conservative policies to meet those concerns. However, we are dealing with the Conservative party here and the successful candidate is going to need to win over two different electorates long before he or she gets to the voters who will …
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But rather more interesting than this question, or the Prime Minister’s answer, was the Mayor’s body language. Both while asking and while listening, he wasn’t merely folding his arms – he was practically hugging himself, as if in self-protection. He could barely have looked more uneasy.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12168677/EU-referendum-David-Cameron-treats-Boris-Johnson-to-the-thrashing-of-his-life.html
The sight of a PM telling redacted versions of the truth to his own party while having to rely on the opposition is fast becoming a fixture.
Interesting speculation, but is there any evidence for it?
1: Accept the result of the referendum (whatever it is) and move on.
2: Unite the party back together.
3: Deal with the economy.
4: Beat the Labour Party at the election.
I now think Gove.
If Gove manages to pull of a couple more well scripted and well reported speeches over the next four months, that are received well in all quarters of the party and some sections of the public, I think he is in pole position - and he is a far too considered and careful politician to go around leaving hostages to fortune like Boris tends to.
But he was spotted by The Jewish Chronicle newspaper on a recent El Al flight to Tel Aviv, and admitted that he owed his more relaxed attitude to sessions with a hypnotist. This is good news for Mrs Gove, the journalist Sarah Vine, who once wrote that air travel would be easier if she could book Michael in with the bags.
But it’s perhaps not so good news for Boris Johnson and Theresa May. It was always said that his fear of flying ruled out Gove as prime minister material. Not any more. Chocks away!
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/comment/columns/atticus/article1357312.ece
If Boris want to be PM he needs to command the Commons (or Tory MPs will stop him getting to first base) - yesterday's outing was not an encouraging start.....
Either that or...
Au contraire - I suspect after the disappointment - no doubt laid at the door of the Electoral Commission for picking the 'wrong' Lead Leave team - I suspect we have years, if not decades of 'I told you so's, 'You should have listened to me' 'I want a judge led enquiry' and 'Monica from Leeds has emailed me....'
That's why Cameron is demob happy - will he make this referendum the third in a row he's won?
Either way, he's off.....
Obviously the outcome of EUref will have a significant impact on the Conservative leadership which is a known quantity. I wonder though if the fallout from the result is even slightly fractious that it will give Labour moderates the opportunity to mount a serious challenge to Corbyn? Obviously historically Labour has been catastrophically crap at mounting a coup against their leader but if the Conservatives were engaging in post referendum blood letting they might perceive that having a comically inept leader was at that point absolutely intolerable etc.
My strong suspicion is that the result will be around 60:40 to remain. I'd also be looking at which of the Leave cabinet ministers will be dispensed with in a post-referendum reshuffle and I'd be looking firmly at IDS and Grayling and possibly Villiers although her gender may save her. Gove is too intelligent and his Leave statements have been fairly measured, Priti Patel is a future star plus and her decision won't hurt her, Whittingdale is fairly new in post and has a big job with the charter review that I don't think Cameron would risk upsetting. Anyway back to lurking.
I still maintain that, in my view, Cameron may be in serious trouble. Quite possibly, this year.
He's got has nothing to lose as he's not standing for re-election, and he feels he simply has to win this. He may do a lot of damage in the process - I was shocked at how vehemently and directly he attacked Boris yesterday - a lot of Tory MPs really won't have liked this.
By the same token, Cameron's lost the weapon of loyalty, because everyone know he is standing down, and the party also knows the election of Jeremy Corbyn means Labour are no serious electoral threat for now. Almost anyone will beat him, so the message of discipline against its convictions isn't there.
Not what Osborne had planned at all - he thought he could pawn the party by making it his vassal, or by threatening miscreants - and moving it to the Left. And I think he'll be much weaker now.
I have already backed Gove, and am pleased with my position.
Now lets try this again slowly for the hard of reading. Cameron said he would be respectful to all sides. Boris didn't. Who is the liar?
If Leave wins his price will certainly come in though, so he is value above about 8/1.
However, the constituency parties may have their own ideas. How much risk is there of Labour or the Conservatives ending up with a candidate critical of their party leader on Europe?
None of this will affect the result of the by election, of course, but it might make it a little more interesting.
Therefore the Referendum campaign becomes an extended job interview.
Osborne does look to be badly damaged, from the outside. He was happy to be associated with the renegotiation - until the reaction to it turned very sour. Since then he has hidden away in Budget purdah. Handy, but not if he wants to be seen to still be a serious contender with his MPs. I still don't buy that the arse has fallen out of his chances. He still has a Budget to come. He must now be thinking "how can I win friends?" - so hopefully the red pencil has gone through his proposed pension changes. And much as we think he is disliked out there -and make no mistake, he is a bloody hard sell on the doorstep - his National Living Wage could prove very popular when the new pay packets arrive with a few million voters who maybe weren't a natural pool of support before.
So Osborne is still in play. But is it my assessment that he will be Prime Minister? No - but then, it never was. He may yet surprise - read the runes, then say that he has no intention of throwing his hat in the ring. State his preferred route would be to stay Chancellor and see the job through with the new Prime Minister. Still a power behind the throne, an eminence gris for continuity Cameron - and still preserving his patronage. Advising his network in the Parliamentary party who to vote for. Not someone to piss off....
This is particularly the case if Remain wins either big or small. If Leave wins we are in new territory altogether and I would agree that Osborne is shot in that scenario along with the rest of the Remain members of the cabinet.
I think it is too early to say because much will depend on how things develop in the campaign. The Tory party really likes winners. If Boris shakes off his ambivalence and campaigns effectively but politely for Out he has a chance to re-establish himself as a national figure who can be serious when the occasion demands. If he continues to hum and haw he will fade. Similarly Osborne should not be underestimated. If he makes a strong and persuasive case for In and wins he will still look heir apparent.
I am a great fan of Michael Gove. I think his clarity of thought and expression is admirable but the lack of grey in his thinking is frequently not an advantage in modern politics. He seems to find compromise once he has reached a position difficult and irrational. Compare and contrast that with Cameron. He gets a lot of stick for his flexibility on this site but I think it is an essential tool for someone trying to run a fractious organisation as the Tory party and hold the various threads together. His laid back attitude letting his Ministers get on with it also helps. What's more, as he demonstrated yesterday, he can be seriously effective when the chips are down. I still really struggle to see Gove as leader. Chancellor on the other hand...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/12169184/North-Sea-oil-investment-to-slump-90pc-this-year-as-losses-mount.html
Ironically his biggest opponents to his leadership now are the likes of Phillip Davies, who detest the policies of Gove on prisons and rehabilitation.
Laying Boris is the way to go.
Off topic. This might be favourite ever New Statesman article ever, even better than the Sion Simon piece.
What would the political map of Britain look like if it took place under Eurovision rules?
The biggest winners, ironically, would be Ukip.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/02/what-would-political-map-britain-look-if-it-took-place-under-eurovision
Remember he was being asked to lay down his career for no other reason than Cameron's focus groups found him unattractive. Who wouldn't be offended?
And there's his wife Daily Mail columist Sarah Vine. A person of such venality that even Michael Portillo was shocked at her personal attack on Ed Milliband's wife. Is it really credible that this Lady Macbeth would have allowed the career they had built up together to wither without a whimper?
There was an interview with the CFO of Emirates the other day, he said that his sweet spot is about $60-80 a barrel. Cheaper fuel is always good for an airline, but when the oil price is where it is now there's less demand, especially in the seats on the top deck of his 72 (and another 70 orders!) A380s.
why don't you just sod off and join the Tories
you're already backing their cabinet :-)
I find it sad whenever politics divides a friendship (and this will be forever, for good) but that is tragically the nature of the game sometimes.
Boris must move in for the kill.
As I said the other day the priority is to maintain key infrastructure in each basin which will allow new small fields to be activated when the price makes that possible.
And then, having been mauled by Dave, he asked an easy-peasy question, awkwardly, and Dave batted it away effortlessly.
Boris is learning that to stand up in the Commons, and be taken seriously, and to be respected and have gravitas and look PM-ish, is not just a case of employing your raffish charm. Because if you do you will look like an idiot and "lose".
Dave is a master, as are plenty of others (EdM, AngusR, not Jezza). Boris got a very effective lesson in this and will need to learn quickly.
However, as an utter clown who has made his name as a clown, this will be impossible.
Next Prime Minister
2020-03-17 - 07:30
I cannot see myself voting for any of the proposed contenders. They differ only in their repulsiveness.
This summer Corbyn needs to go and be replaced by someone who can exploit the Tory splits. If the Cameroons get defeated by the swivel eyed loons then suddenly the election is there for the taking.
An erudite but possibly irrelevant piece.
Already, this EU discussion has the feel of 1975. The Establishment has decided and it will have its way. But that is dull compared to what will happen to British politics as a result. Cameron will put EU membership above the Conservative Party, and he will have his way, so I can see its demise in its present form.
You can say it's none of my business - I'm Jezza's age and I've never voted Conservative - but I may never have the chance to do soon. What is fascinating is what will be left on the political scene.
Ukip are a one-issue party, and the LDs will be seen as Tory lapdogs. They are on Europe, so that will be reinforced in the coming months. This should be the breakthrough for Labour.
Yet, they've somehow managed to shoot themselves in the head as well as in the foot. Jezza will never attract the old gits - they remember his ilk from the late sixties. At seventeen, his mix of Marxism, anti-Semitism and anti-Britishness was an exciting alternative .At sixty seven, it's almost embarrassing. No, I'm wrong there ... it is embarrassing. And those splinter groups always eat themselves.
Either Cameron soft-pedals (he won't), Jezza resigns (he won't), or the LDs reinvent themselves (unlikely), or the Tories and Ukip combine to become another splinter group.
Interesting times.
He only has 2 1/2 months left as Mayor. I expect a few less diary appointments in city hall and a few more with political and presentational advisors.
@politicshome: Donald Trump would be the "most dreadful" president in the history of the United States, says Alex Salmond #GMB
Gove isn't either. IDS... nope. So from the leading Leavers that leaves Grayling or Patel.
I suspect that the party will go for a unifying candidate, one from either side of this European split - look out for a Cabinet member who clearly is only softly supporting Leave or Remain.
It's clear that Conference in October will debate a load of policy and procedure changes designed to entrench the hard Left of the party in power, at the expense of the moderate PLP - so has the referendum being called closed the already narrow window of opportunity to push JC out before those changes go through?
I'm hearing we will get a PSOE + C coalition announced in Spain this week, and perhaps as early as tomorrow.
I'm actually in favour of of ideas like weekend prisons that would allow nonviolent convicts to keep their jobs while still being punished.
We have long been told on here that there is no depth or inspiration on the Labour benches. That may well be true. But it's a struggle to see where it is on the Tory benches either.
Maybe he standardises pension income tax relief relief at 25%, therefore being a net gain to 85% of the population - even though most of the media are all in the 15% that would be negatively affected!
I don't think she's special but Justine Greening might be a non-threatening unity candidate.