So after explaining why the pollsters [and candidates] often have trouble with Iowa [the result of which is often irrelevant to the overall contest in any case], Mike feels confident enough to make a generalization about Trump's performance versus the polls.
I'd be more cautious.
There was already a hint of Trump fading and Rubio rising in any case if you look again.
The one thing you can bet your house on is that come the Friday morning when we've voted 2 to 1 (again) to remain, the Tory Euro loons will still be "banging on about Europe".
I don't think that'll be the case. The 1970's referendum was preceded by an approx six-year campaign to mold public opinion (i.e. before the 1970 Heath Premiership), a consensus amongst the party big beasts on all sides that membership was a good thing, and a solid bloc of pro-EU reporting in the print media. Only the trade unions, some Labour MPs, and a small section of the public were vehemently agin.
Now fast forward to the 2010's
The Cold War government information apparatus is long gone, the big beast consensus is absent, the print media is vehemently anti-EU, Euroscepticism is common amongst the public. The weapons available to the REMAIN side are absent and the numbers small. The weapons available to the LEAVE side are large - a vicious press, an agreeable commentariat, an engaged public - and it looks like a slam dunk for LEAVE.
As I said to SeanT some while ago: when did REMAIN last win an argument or a battle?
Your question is petty. People will think that the argument has been won by their side no matter what.
I'm sure they will,but my question ("when did REMAIN last win an argument or a battle?") is not petty.
Elections are not just battles of ideas. Opinions can be swayed, questions can be framed to elicit the correct response, the other side can be mocked, money can be deployed to change minds. People do not spend all day thinking on these matters so fashion and opinionmakers can be deployed to make person X vote in way Y. REMAIN are poorly equipped in this regard and although the various LEAVE campaigns are lacking/contradictory, a hostile press has easily stepped in to deploy good old British journalism in the....familiar manner. My question ("when did REMAIN last win an argument or a battle?") illustrates this.
If you support Remain (like the majority of the country according to bookies and phone pollsters and almost all of the Cabinet) then you probably think Remain have regularly won arguments.
If you back Leave you probably think they haven't.
How do you give an objective answer?
I support Remain but I don't think the Pro-EU side has won the argument in the public square.
Sell Hillary for next POTUS. She's still at evens, for someone who might not even be the Democratic nominee, and who would be slaughtered by Rubio and would probably lose to Trump. Sell her all the way out to 2.4. (I admit a small interest in this market.) .... It is staggering that Sanders is almost the same chance as Trump for the Presidency. And, after New Hampshire, he will lose almost every state. Even if he got the nomination, he would lose to... pretty much any Republican, including Cruz. Continue to sell him.
Isn't it better to lay the Dems/back the GOP in the party market? Better odds than laying Hillary.
The one thing you can bet your house on is that come the Friday morning when we've voted 2 to 1 (again) to remain, the Tory Euro loons will still be "banging on about Europe".
Nothing wrong with that - free speech and so on. But those Cabinet members who have sat on the fence better not be among them. Having said that I look forward a couple of years to when they start saying 'well, we thought Dave had got a good deal, but now looking at it again...' Pathetic.
Yes there is. We've had the last 25 years of the Tories banging on about Europe and saying that the people need a choice. Give the people a choice and they still won't be satisfied. We've already seen people on here getting their excuses ready this evening.
With all due respect, fuck off. if you believe deep down - morally, personally - in a cause, then you continue to pursue it even if you are defeated politically.
Perhaps William Wilberforce should have accepted his initial rebuffs and said Ah well, that's settled, we'll keep slavery for another generation.
I speak as someone undecided on this issue. But I respect the right of both sides to campaign for what they believe, and for referendums to enact this, even if they lose this year. This is especially true of Europe, which has been AWFULLY keen on multiple referendums, until the public vote the right way.
And I don't remember a referendum on slavery, but I might have missed it. We will be better off in the EU I don't care about the minutiae but the Euro loons are completely obsessed to the exclusion on any pretense of good governance. Anyone would think that we had been dragged against our will into all the treaties and agreements and have had the directives foisted upon them. Absolute rubbish we've played a part in fashioning all of them.
If the result is Leave 50.01%, Remain 49.99%, will you call for another referendum?
I hope it is decisive either way. I can imagine the EU asking us to try again if your scenario occurs.
@tnewtondunn · 7m7 minutes ago Breaking: Theresa May says draft EU agreement is the "basis for a deal". A big intervention, clearest sign yet she will campaign for Remain.
This is important and for me unexpected. David Cameron might not be much cop at negotiating with the EU but he knows how to do it with Cabinet colleagues.
Those cabinet members and senior MPs who have professed to be filled to the gills with euro-scepticism over the years better start putting up or shutting up to be honest.
If remain wins UKIP will do very well out of all these newly found europhiles. It would be impossible to argue that the Tories are even soft Eurosceptics.
Priti Patel could be worth a punt for leader. Her voting record is dubious when it comes to the EU so could see her backing remain as well.
Why would people vote for UKIP if the referendum is clearly defeated? What's UKIP's pitch going to be? Vote for us and we promise to get very angry?
Are you seriously suggesting that the debate will be settled after a vote to remain? I can think of a huge number of reasons why it would not be settled.
Scottish Labour displayed similar arrogance. That worked out well for them.
Right, so UKIP aren't going to respect the referendum result. Nice of you to let us know that in advance.
If there's a vote for Remain, then UKIP will still campaign to Leave, in the same way the SNP still campaign for independence.
The one thing you can bet your house on is that come the Friday morning when we've voted 2 to 1 (again) to remain, the Tory Euro loons will still be "banging on about Europe".
I don't think that'll be the case. The 1970's referendum was preceded by an approx six-year campaign to mold public opinion (i.e. before the 1970 Heath Premiership), a consensus amongst the party big beasts on all sides that membership was a good thing, and a solid bloc of pro-EU reporting in the print media. Only the trade unions, some Labour MPs, and a small section of the public were vehemently agin.
Now fast forward to the 2010's
The Cold War government information apparatus is long gone, the big beast consensus is absent, the print media is vehemently anti-EU, Euroscepticism is common amongst the public. The weapons available to the REMAIN side are absent and the numbers small. The weapons available to the LEAVE side are large - a vicious press, an agreeable commentariat, an engaged public - and it looks like a slam dunk for LEAVE.
As I said to SeanT some while ago: when did REMAIN last win an argument or a battle?
Your question is petty. People will think that the argument has been won by their side no matter what.
I'm sure they will,but my question ("when did REMAIN last win an argument or a battle?") is not petty.
Elections are not just battles of ideas. Opinions can be swayed, questions can be framed to elicit the correct response, the other side can be mocked, money can be deployed to change minds. People do not spend all day thinking on these matters so fashion and opinionmakers can be deployed to make person X vote in way Y. REMAIN are poorly equipped in this regard and although the various LEAVE campaigns are lacking/contradictory, a hostile press has easily stepped in to deploy good old British journalism in the....familiar manner. My question ("when did REMAIN last win an argument or a battle?") illustrates this.
If you support Remain (like the majority of the country according to bookies and phone pollsters and almost all of the Cabinet) then you probably think Remain have regularly won arguments.
If you back Leave you probably think they haven't.
How do you give an objective answer?
I support Remain but I don't think the Pro-EU side has won the argument in the public square.
I think it has but I fail to see how you objectively measure it.
@tnewtondunn · 7m7 minutes ago Breaking: Theresa May says draft EU agreement is the "basis for a deal". A big intervention, clearest sign yet she will campaign for Remain.
This is important and for me unexpected. David Cameron might not be much cop at negotiating with the EU but he knows how to do it with Cabinet colleagues.
Those cabinet members and senior MPs who have professed to be filled to the gills with euro-scepticism over the years better start putting up or shutting up to be honest.
If remain wins UKIP will do very well out of all these newly found europhiles. It would be impossible to argue that the Tories are even soft Eurosceptics.
Priti Patel could be worth a punt for leader. Her voting record is dubious when it comes to the EU so could see her backing remain as well.
Why would people vote for UKIP if the referendum is clearly defeated? What's UKIP's pitch going to be? Vote for us and we promise to get very angry?
Are you seriously suggesting that the debate will be settled after a vote to remain? I can think of a huge number of reasons why it would not be settled.
Scottish Labour displayed similar arrogance. That worked out well for them.
Right, so UKIP aren't going to respect the referendum result. Nice of you to let us know that in advance.
If there's a vote for Remain, then UKIP will still campaign to Leave, in the same way the SNP still campaign for independence.
And in the same way that the Lib Dems continue to campaign for voting reform.
The red card is reasonable What would be unreasonable is if one government elected by 37 per cent of nine per cent of the EU could tell the rest what it couldn't do In or out, and in means in and out means out!
@tnewtondunn · 7m7 minutes ago Breaking: Theresa May says draft EU agreement is the "basis for a deal". A big intervention, clearest sign yet she will campaign for Remain.
This is important and for me unexpected. David Cameron might not be much cop at negotiating with the EU but he knows how to do it with Cabinet colleagues.
Those cabinet members and senior MPs who have professed to be filled to the gills with euro-scepticism over the years better start putting up or shutting up to be honest.
If remain wins UKIP will do very well out of all these newly found europhiles. It would be impossible to argue that the Tories are even soft Eurosceptics.
Priti Patel could be worth a punt for leader. Her voting record is dubious when it comes to the EU so could see her backing remain as well.
Why would people vote for UKIP if the referendum is clearly defeated? What's UKIP's pitch going to be? Vote for us and we promise to get very angry?
Are you seriously suggesting that the debate will be settled after a vote to remain? I can think of a huge number of reasons why it would not be settled.
Scottish Labour displayed similar arrogance. That worked out well for them.
Right, so UKIP aren't going to respect the referendum result. Nice of you to let us know that in advance.
If there's a vote for Remain, then UKIP will still campaign to Leave, in the same way the SNP still campaign for independence.
But as Mike has shown poll after poll has shown that the public do not consider Europe to be a major issue. They should just get over their obsession and focus on something important. The young are overwhelmingly in favour of remain so the issue will probably die out eventually.
Very weak deal from Cameron. Remain likely to win as Richard N points out below. This will inevitably be interpreted as licence for closer integration.
Eurosceptic Tories now have a very tricky choice indeed.
Your question is petty. People will think that the argument has been won by their side no matter what.
I'm sure they will,but my question ("when did REMAIN last win an argument or a battle?") is not petty.
Elections are not just battles of ideas. Opinions can be swayed, questions can be framed to elicit the correct response, the other side can be mocked, money can be deployed to change minds. People do not spend all day thinking on these matters so fashion and opinionmakers can be deployed to make person X vote in way Y. REMAIN are poorly equipped in this regard and although the various LEAVE campaigns are lacking/contradictory, a hostile press has easily stepped in to deploy good old British journalism in the....familiar manner. My question ("when did REMAIN last win an argument or a battle?") illustrates this.
If you support Remain (like the majority of the country according to bookies and phone pollsters and almost all of the Cabinet) then you probably think Remain have regularly won arguments.
If you back Leave you probably think they haven't.
How do you give an objective answer?
I support Remain but I don't think the Pro-EU side has won the argument in the public square.
I think it has but I fail to see how you objectively measure it.
Fair enough. I'm just making a subjective judgement.
If one wanted to try to measure it one might count up newspaper editorials and columns, letters, political speeches on each side. Or one could not do that and have another drink instead.
@tnewtondunn · 7m7 minutes ago Breaking: Theresa May says draft EU agreement is the "basis for a deal". A big intervention, clearest sign yet she will campaign for Remain.
This is important and for me unexpected. David Cameron might not be much cop at negotiating with the EU but he knows how to do it with Cabinet colleagues.
Those cabinet members and senior MPs who have professed to be filled to the gills with euro-scepticism over the years better start putting up or shutting up to be honest.
If remain wins UKIP will do very well out of all these newly found europhiles. It would be impossible to argue that the Tories are even soft Eurosceptics.
Priti Patel could be worth a punt for leader. Her voting record is dubious when it comes to the EU so could see her backing remain as well.
Why would people vote for UKIP if the referendum is clearly defeated? What's UKIP's pitch going to be? Vote for us and we promise to get very angry?
Are you seriously suggesting that the debate will be settled after a vote to remain? I can think of a huge number of reasons why it would not be settled.
Scottish Labour displayed similar arrogance. That worked out well for them.
Right, so UKIP aren't going to respect the referendum result. Nice of you to let us know that in advance.
If there's a vote for Remain, then UKIP will still campaign to Leave, in the same way the SNP still campaign for independence.
But as Mike has shown poll after poll has shown that the public do not consider Europe to be a major issue. They should just get over their obsession and focus on something important. The young are overwhelmingly in favour of remain so the issue will probably die out eventually.
If that argument had merit why hasn't conservatism died already?
@tnewtondunn · 7m7 minutes ago Breaking: Theresa May says draft EU agreement is the "basis for a deal". A big intervention, clearest sign yet she will campaign for Remain.
This is important and for me unexpected. David Cameron might not be much cop at negotiating with the EU but he knows how to do it with Cabinet colleagues.
Those cabinet members and senior MPs who have professed to be filled to the gills with euro-scepticism over the years better start putting up or shutting up to be honest.
If remain wins UKIP will do very well out of all these newly found europhiles. It would be impossible to argue that the Tories are even soft Eurosceptics.
Priti Patel could be worth a punt for leader. Her voting record is dubious when it comes to the EU so could see her backing remain as well.
Why would people vote for UKIP if the referendum is clearly defeated? What's UKIP's pitch going to be? Vote for us and we promise to get very angry?
Are you seriously suggesting that the debate will be settled after a vote to remain? I can think of a huge number of reasons why it would not be settled.
Scottish Labour displayed similar arrogance. That worked out well for them.
Right, so UKIP aren't going to respect the referendum result. Nice of you to let us know that in advance.
If there's a vote for Remain, then UKIP will still campaign to Leave, in the same way the SNP still campaign for independence.
But as Mike has shown poll after poll has shown that the public do not consider Europe to be a major issue. They should just get over their obsession and focus on something important. The young are overwhelmingly in favour of remain so the issue will probably die out eventually.
Maybe, or it could be part of the rightwards drift that many (I don't say all) people go through as they get older.
@tnewtondunn · 7m7 minutes ago Breaking: Theresa May says draft EU agreement is the "basis for a deal". A big intervention, clearest sign yet she will campaign for Remain.
This is important and for me unexpected. David Cameron might not be much cop at negotiating with the EU but he knows how to do it with Cabinet colleagues.
Those cabinet members and senior MPs who have professed to be filled to the gills with euro-scepticism over the years better start putting up or shutting up to be honest.
If remain wins UKIP will do very well out of all these newly found europhiles. It would be impossible to argue that the Tories are even soft Eurosceptics.
Priti Patel could be worth a punt for leader. Her voting record is dubious when it comes to the EU so could see her backing remain as well.
Why would people vote for UKIP if the referendum is clearly defeated? What's UKIP's pitch going to be? Vote for us and we promise to get very angry?
Are you seriously suggesting that the debate will be settled after a vote to remain? I can think of a huge number of reasons why it would not be settled.
Scottish Labour displayed similar arrogance. That worked out well for them.
Right, so UKIP aren't going to respect the referendum result. Nice of you to let us know that in advance.
If there's a vote for Remain, then UKIP will still campaign to Leave, in the same way the SNP still campaign for independence.
But as Mike has shown poll after poll has shown that the public do not consider Europe to be a major issue. They should just get over their obsession and focus on something important. The young are overwhelmingly in favour of remain so the issue will probably die out eventually.
If the public don't care, why are having this referendum?
40 years ago, young people were overwhelmingly in favour. The same age cohort thinks differently today.
@tnewtondunn · 7m7 minutes ago Breaking: Theresa May says draft EU agreement is the "basis for a deal". A big intervention, clearest sign yet she will campaign for Remain.
This is important and for me unexpected. David Cameron might not be much cop at negotiating with the EU but he knows how to do it with Cabinet colleagues.
Those cabinet members and senior MPs who have professed to be filled to the gills with euro-scepticism over the years better start putting up or shutting up to be honest.
If remain wins UKIP will do very well out of all these newly found europhiles. It would be impossible to argue that the Tories are even soft Eurosceptics.
Priti Patel could be worth a punt for leader. Her voting record is dubious when it comes to the EU so could see her backing remain as well.
Why would people vote for UKIP if the referendum is clearly defeated? What's UKIP's pitch going to be? Vote for us and we promise to get very angry?
Are you seriously suggesting that the debate will be settled after a vote to remain? I can think of a huge number of reasons why it would not be settled.
Scottish Labour displayed similar arrogance. That worked out well for them.
Remain needs to win by 60/40 at a bare minimum to settle it for a generation etc etc.
I doubt they will do that.
I bet we will be revisiting the idea of a referendum within 10 years. Maybe much less if the EU falls apart.
I'm expecting 60/40 Remain minimum simply because whenever Leave are asked what comes next after a Leave vote you get a lot of spluttering, "search me guv" and angry expostulations about the wickedness of the EU.
Simply not true. For example you get a very clear answer from people like me that we want to be part of EFTA and the EEA. The fact that you get different answers from other Leave people simply reflects the fact that we all have different visions and that none of us actually have any influence over what the final arrangement will be. The job of deciding what our relationship will be after a Leave vote will rest first and foremost with Cameron and Parliament.
The only people who are really deluded are those who think that our relationship with the EU after a Remain vote will be either looser or the same as we have now. One thing we can be sure of - even more so today after Cameron's non-negotiation is that a remain vote is a vote for more EU not less.
If you support Remain (like the majority of the country according to bookies and phone pollsters and almost all of the Cabinet) then you probably think Remain have regularly won arguments.
If you back Leave you probably think they haven't.
How do you give an objective answer?
a) list all the battles fought b) assign a winner to each battle. c) list those won by REMAIN
The only REMAIN wins I can think of are ensuring Reckless, Gove, May(?), Hammond, Hague, Cameron et al are all REMAIN. That's it. Whether to have a referendum at all, who should the electorate be, the wording of the question, whether the renegotiations are presented as a success or failure, the neutrality of the Conservative Party apparatus and the Civil Service, who should be mocked, all have been LEAVE victories. The only misstep was when they realised that mocking June Sarpong was infra dig given the death of her brother, but other than that the Leavemacht rolled on regardless.
Cameron is relying solely on personal charisma and the rightness of his cause to win. I think that's naive and I think he will lose.
Other than politicians, has anyone claimed this is a good deal?
I know the internet is not overly representative of the wider electorate but browing a few random forums seems to suggest most people have tasted the gruel and decided it is not edible.
Very weak deal from Cameron. Remain likely to win as Richard N points out below. This will inevitably be interpreted as licence for closer integration.
Eurosceptic Tories now have a very tricky choice indeed.
Why is it a tricky choice for Tories?
Possibly a little tricky for those in the Cabinet or aspirational MPs, but for the rank and file members and backbenchers it's pretty straightforward.
The one thing you can bet your house on is that come the Friday morning when we've voted 2 to 1 (again) to remain, the Tory Euro loons will still be "banging on about Europe".
Nothing wrong with that - free speech and so on. But those Cabinet members who have sat on the fence better not be among them. Having said that I look forward a couple of years to when they start saying 'well, we thought Dave had got a good deal, but now looking at it again...' Pathetic.
Yes there is. We've had the last 25 years of the Tories banging on about Europe and saying that the people need a choice. Give the people a choice and they still won't be satisfied. We've already seen people on here getting their excuses ready this evening.
The people have a right to never be satisfied. Their consent must be continuously sought in elections. I know it upsets people of all political stripes who don't like the public's views, but that's democracy.
@tnewtondunn · 7m7 minutes ago Breaking: Theresa May says draft EU agreement is the "basis for a deal". A big intervention, clearest sign yet she will campaign for Remain.
This is important and for me unexpected. David Cameron might not be much cop at negotiating with the EU but he knows how to do it with Cabinet colleagues.
The site of Tory MP after Tory MP falling into line behind remain is as surprising as is pathetic, by which I mean very.
I am a Remainer so you think this would please me but it does not. The Foundation of democracy is people campaigning on the issues they believe in. Here we see people putting their career first and their country second.
@tnewtondunn · 7m7 minutes ago Breaking: Theresa May says draft EU agreement is the "basis for a deal". A big intervention, clearest sign yet she will campaign for Remain.
This is important and for me unexpected. David Cameron might not be much cop at negotiating with the EU but he knows how to do it with Cabinet colleagues.
Those cabinet members and senior MPs who have professed to be filled to the gills with euro-scepticism over the years better start putting up or shutting up to be honest.
If remain wins UKIP will do very well out of all these newly found europhiles. It would be impossible to argue that the Tories are even soft Eurosceptics.
Priti Patel could be worth a punt for leader. Her voting record is dubious when it comes to the EU so could see her backing remain as well.
Why would people vote for UKIP if the referendum is clearly defeated? What's UKIP's pitch going to be? Vote for us and we promise to get very angry?
Are you seriously suggesting that the debate will be settled after a vote to remain? I can think of a huge number of reasons why it would not be settled.
Scottish Labour displayed similar arrogance. That worked out well for them.
Right, so UKIP aren't going to respect the referendum result. Nice of you to let us know that in advance.
If there's a vote for Remain, then UKIP will still campaign to Leave, in the same way the SNP still campaign for independence.
But as Mike has shown poll after poll has shown that the public do not consider Europe to be a major issue. They should just get over their obsession and focus on something important. The young are overwhelmingly in favour of remain so the issue will probably die out eventually.
That's a bloody stupid argument. Who is to say what is important? If it's popular interest then we might as well just make Simon Cowell PM and make Big I'm a Strictly Factor a proxy parliament.
No change would ever come about but for the campaigning of what were once - and usually still are - minority interests.
The red card is reasonable What would be unreasonable is if one government elected by 37 per cent of nine per cent of the EU could tell the rest what it couldn't do In or out, and in means in and out means out!
What's not reasonable is for the Eurozone to pass whatever it wants without checks. Soon Eurozone will be its own superstate, and will be able to dictate to all other EU members the way things are.
The one thing you can bet your house on is that come the Friday morning when we've voted 2 to 1 (again) to remain, the Tory Euro loons will still be "banging on about Europe".
Nothing wrong with that - free speech and so on. But those Cabinet members who have sat on the fence better not be among them. Having said that I look forward a couple of years to when they start saying 'well, we thought Dave had got a good deal, but now looking at it again...' Pathetic.
Yes there is. We've had the last 25 years of the Tories banging on about Europe and saying that the people need a choice. Give the people a choice and they still won't be satisfied. We've already seen people on here getting their excuses ready this evening.
The people have a right to never be satisfied. Their consent must be continuously sought in elections. I know it upsets people of all political stripes who don't like the public's views, but that's democracy.
Quite. Should the Conservatives have just given up after 2005, on the ground that they'd been rejected three times in a row?
@tnewtondunn · 7m7 minutes ago Breaking: Theresa May says draft EU agreement is the "basis for a deal". A big intervention, clearest sign yet she will campaign for Remain.
This is important and for me unexpected. David Cameron might not be much cop at negotiating with the EU but he knows how to do it with Cabinet colleagues.
The site of Tory MP after Tory MP falling into line behind remain is as surprising as is pathetic, by which I mean very.
I am a Remainer so you think this would please me but it does not. The Foundation of democracy is people campaigning on the issues they believe in. Here we see people putting their career first and their country second.
Thats surprised me too. It would be one thing if they declared months ago, but for them to claim so on this shoddy deal is bonkers. I reckon they all wanted to keep their options open but blinked even when goal was wide open. Shows amazing lack of nerve.
@tnewtondunn · 7m7 minutes ago Breaking: Theresa May says draft EU agreement is the "basis for a deal". A big intervention, clearest sign yet she will campaign for Remain.
This is important and for me unexpected. David Cameron might not be much cop at negotiating with the EU but he knows how to do it with Cabinet colleagues.
The site of Tory MP after Tory MP falling into line behind remain is as surprising as is pathetic, by which I mean very.
I am a Remainer so you think this would please me but it does not. The Foundation of democracy is people campaigning on the issues they believe in. Here we see people putting their career first and their country second.
Not necessarily. It may be that they have never been as anti-EU as they have let people think. Or that, when push comes to shove, they genuinely see merit in staying in. Or they may be motivated by party loyalty (which is not the same thing as career).
Interesting development in Spain: King has asked Socialists to try to form a government. The leader of Ciudadanos has indicated he is interested in doing a deal. It would be hard for PP to oppose a PSOE/Cs hook-up. Podemos would definitely oppose it.
Did anyone see the U-19 cricket world cup match between Zimbabwe v west indies and how it finished,very unsporting by the Windies ;-)
Never understood why running out the non-striker is unsporting. A run is meant to be 22 yards, not 21 and surely it's the batting side which is being unsporting.
@tnewtondunn · 7m7 minutes ago Breaking: Theresa May says draft EU agreement is the "basis for a deal". A big intervention, clearest sign yet she will campaign for Remain.
This is important and for me unexpected. David Cameron might not be much cop at negotiating with the EU but he knows how to do it with Cabinet colleagues.
The site of Tory MP after Tory MP falling into line behind remain is as surprising as is pathetic, by which I mean very.
I am a Remainer so you think this would please me but it does not. The Foundation of democracy is people campaigning on the issues they believe in. Here we see people putting their career first and their country second.
Not necessarily. It may be that they have never been as anti-EU as they have let people think. Or that, when push comes to shove, they genuinely see merit in staying in. Or they may be motivated by party loyalty (which is not the same thing as career).
So they were lying to their constituents in order to get elected?
I have gone back into Republican Nominee market and laid Rubio for all my profit on the market.
I do not think NH is the place for him and his price has been driven by a third place. Just imagine explaining today on the betting markets to somoene "Cruz won Iowa so naturally Rubio is now odds on favourite". Bonkers.
@tnewtondunn · 7m7 minutes ago Breaking: Theresa May says draft EU agreement is the "basis for a deal". A big intervention, clearest sign yet she will campaign for Remain.
This is important and for me unexpected. David Cameron might not be much cop at negotiating with the EU but he knows how to do it with Cabinet colleagues.
Those cabinet members and senior MPs who have professed to be filled to the gills with euro-scepticism over the years better start putting up or shutting up to be honest.
If remain wins UKIP will do very well out of all these newly found europhiles. It would be impossible to argue that the Tories are even soft Eurosceptics.
Priti Patel could be worth a punt for leader. Her voting record is dubious when it comes to the EU so could see her backing remain as well.
Why would people vote for UKIP if the referendum is clearly defeated? What's UKIP's pitch going to be? Vote for us and we promise to get very angry?
Are you seriously suggesting that the debate will be settled after a vote to remain? I can think of a huge number of reasons why it would not be settled.
Scottish Labour displayed similar arrogance. That worked out well for them.
Right, so UKIP aren't going to respect the referendum result. Nice of you to let us know that in advance.
If there's a vote for Remain, then UKIP will still campaign to Leave, in the same way the SNP still campaign for independence.
But as Mike has shown poll after poll has shown that the public do not consider Europe to be a major issue. They should just get over their obsession and focus on something important. The young are overwhelmingly in favour of remain so the issue will probably die out eventually.
Jesus Christ you're just very thick, aren't you?
What's the number one issue of the moment, for most voters?
Migration/borders/security/refugees
That's ALL about the EU.
And you're just very unpleasant - always have been but I'll be charitable and put it down to your malaise. No it's not EU. If we left the EU there would still be migrants at Calais wanting to get here, membership or not is irrelevant
@tnewtondunn · 7m7 minutes ago Breaking: Theresa May says draft EU agreement is the "basis for a deal". A big intervention, clearest sign yet she will campaign for Remain.
This is important and for me unexpected. David Cameron might not be much cop at negotiating with the EU but he knows how to do it with Cabinet colleagues.
Those cabinet members and senior MPs who have professed to be filled to the gills with euro-scepticism over the years better start putting up or shutting up to be honest.
If remain wins UKIP will do very well out of all these newly found europhiles. It would be impossible to argue that the Tories are even soft Eurosceptics.
Priti Patel could be worth a punt for leader. Her voting record is dubious when it comes to the EU so could see her backing remain as well.
Why would people vote for UKIP if the referendum is clearly defeated? What's UKIP's pitch going to be? Vote for us and we promise to get very angry?
Some of us - ie. me not you - predicted BEFORE indyref that the SNP would get a huge sympathy vote after losing the vote narrowly.
I was right on all counts.
Eurosceptics will get a surge of similar sympathy voting after REMAIN wins, especially when we all realise the EU is going to treat us with contempt thereafter (which they will).
This is why it is vital for Tories to be led by at least a halfway sceptic leader, when Cameron quits.
The difference is that a huge number of Scots really cared about the result of the independence referendum. There's little indication the EU referendum is of much interest to most voters.
The red card is reasonable What would be unreasonable is if one government elected by 37 per cent of nine per cent of the EU could tell the rest what it couldn't do In or out, and in means in and out means out!
What's not reasonable is for the Eurozone to pass whatever it wants without checks. Soon Eurozone will be its own superstate, and will be able to dictate to all other EU members the way things are.
And all that Cameron has achieved, on that front, is that when we feel the City or the UK is suffering from discriminatory, pro-eurozone legislation, we can now have the issue "escalated", so it is more "widely discussed". That's it. The eurozone can still pass the law. We have no real leverage. Nothing. He has spent a year negotiating precisely nothing.
It's not just a bad deal, it's a bizarrely bad deal.
Cameron must know this, which makes his lies all the more unpalatable.
And on stopping migrant benefits he has won the right to ask again in future, but only on a temporary basis. No opt out of closer union, nothing new on competitiveness, no stop on child benefit going abroad, no opt out of working time directive, no treaty change. I expected failures on some of these but not across the board like this.
Interesting development in Spain: King has asked Socialists to try to form a government. The leader of Ciudadanos has indicated he is interested in doing a deal. It would be hard for PP to oppose a PSOE/Cs hook-up. Podemos would definitely oppose it.
@tnewtondunn · 7m7 minutes ago Breaking: Theresa May says draft EU agreement is the "basis for a deal". A big intervention, clearest sign yet she will campaign for Remain.
This is important and for me unexpected. David Cameron might not be much cop at negotiating with the EU but he knows how to do it with Cabinet colleagues.
Those cabinet members and senior MPs who have professed to be filled to the gills with euro-scepticism over the years better start putting up or shutting up to be honest.
If remain wins UKIP will do very well out of all these newly found europhiles. It would be impossible to argue that the Tories are even soft Eurosceptics.
Priti Patel could be worth a punt for leader. Her voting record is dubious when it comes to the EU so could see her backing remain as well.
Why would people vote for UKIP if the referendum is clearly defeated? What's UKIP's pitch going to be? Vote for us and we promise to get very angry?
Are you seriously suggesting that the debate will be settled after a vote to remain? I can think of a huge number of reasons why it would not be settled.
Scottish Labour displayed similar arrogance. That worked out well for them.
Right, so UKIP aren't going to respect the referendum result. Nice of you to let us know that in advance.
If there's a vote for Remain, then UKIP will still campaign to Leave, in the same way the SNP still campaign for independence.
But as Mike has shown poll after poll has shown that the public do not consider Europe to be a major issue. They should just get over their obsession and focus on something important. The young are overwhelmingly in favour of remain so the issue will probably die out eventually.
Jesus Christ you're just very thick, aren't you?
What's the number one issue of the moment, for most voters?
Migration/borders/security/refugees
That's ALL about the EU.
And you're just very unpleasant - always have been but I'll be charitable and put it down to your malaise. No it's not EU. If we left the EU there would still be migrants at Calais wanting to get here, membership or not is irrelevant
The one thing you can bet your house on is that come the Friday morning when we've voted 2 to 1 (again) to remain, the Tory Euro loons will still be "banging on about Europe".
Nothing wrong with that - free speech and so on. But those Cabinet members who have sat on the fence better not be among them. Having said that I look forward a couple of years to when they start saying 'well, we thought Dave had got a good deal, but now looking at it again...' Pathetic.
Yes there is. We've had the last 25 years of the Tories banging on about Europe and saying that the people need a choice. Give the people a choice and they still won't be satisfied. We've already seen people on here getting their excuses ready this evening.
The people have a right to never be satisfied. Their consent must be continuously sought in elections. I know it upsets people of all political stripes who don't like the public's views, but that's democracy.
I'd be quite content just to have elections, the fad for referendums on every issue under the sun is tiresome.
It's evenings like this that I'm very glad I'm an NBC customer and can therefore watch the football from the comfort of my sofa, with a glass of wine and a curry...
@tnewtondunn · 7m7 minutes ago Breaking: Theresa May says draft EU agreement is the "basis for a deal". A big intervention, clearest sign yet she will campaign for Remain.
This is important and for me unexpected. David Cameron might not be much cop at negotiating with the EU but he knows how to do it with Cabinet colleagues.
Those cabinet members and senior MPs who have professed to be filled to the gills with euro-scepticism over the years better start putting up or shutting up to be honest.
If remain wins UKIP will do very well out of all these newly found europhiles. It would be impossible to argue that the Tories are even soft Eurosceptics.
Priti Patel could be worth a punt for leader. Her voting record is dubious when it comes to the EU so could see her backing remain as well.
Why would people vote for UKIP if the referendum is clearly defeated? What's UKIP's pitch going to be? Vote for us and we promise to get very angry?
Some of us - ie. me not you - predicted BEFORE indyref that the SNP would get a huge sympathy vote after losing the vote narrowly.
I was right on all counts.
Eurosceptics will get a surge of similar sympathy voting after REMAIN wins, especially when we all realise the EU is going to treat us with contempt thereafter (which they will).
This is why it is vital for Tories to be led by at least a halfway sceptic leader, when Cameron quits.
The difference is that a huge number of Scots really cared about the result of the independence referendum. There's little indication the EU referendum is of much interest to most voters.
I presume you will be backing a low turn out then?
@tnewtondunn · 7m7 minutes ago Breaking: Theresa May says draft EU agreement is the "basis for a deal". A big intervention, clearest sign yet she will campaign for Remain.
This is important and for me unexpected. David Cameron might not be much cop at negotiating with the EU but he knows how to do it with Cabinet colleagues.
Those cabinet members and senior MPs who have professed to be filled to the gills with euro-scepticism over the years better start putting up or shutting up to be honest.
If remain wins UKIP will do very well out of all these newly found europhiles. It would be impossible to argue that the Tories are even soft Eurosceptics.
Priti Patel could be worth a punt for leader. Her voting record is dubious when it comes to the EU so could see her backing remain as well.
Why would people vote for UKIP if the referendum is clearly defeated? What's UKIP's pitch going to be? Vote for us and we promise to get very angry?
Are you seriously suggesting that the debate will be settled after a vote to remain? I can think of a huge number of reasons why it would not be settled.
Scottish Labour displayed similar arrogance. That worked out well for them.
Remain needs to win by 60/40 at a bare minimum to settle it for a generation etc etc.
I doubt they will do that.
I bet we will be revisiting the idea of a referendum within 10 years. Maybe much less if the EU falls apart.
I'm expecting 60/40 Remain minimum simply because whenever Leave are asked what comes next after a Leave vote you get a lot of spluttering, "search me guv" and angry expostulations about the wickedness of the EU.
Simply not true. For example you get a very clear answer from people like me that we want to be part of EFTA and the EEA. The fact that you get different answers from other Leave people simply reflects the fact that we all have different visions and that none of us actually have any influence over what the final arrangement will be. The job of deciding what our relationship will be after a Leave vote will rest first and foremost with Cameron and Parliament.
The only people who are really deluded are those who think that our relationship with the EU after a Remain vote will be either looser or the same as we have now. One thing we can be sure of - even more so today after Cameron's non-negotiation is that a remain vote is a vote for more EU not less.
We're being asked for guarantees which we cannot provide.
@tnewtondunn · 7m7 minutes ago Breaking: Theresa May says draft EU agreement is the "basis for a deal". A big intervention, clearest sign yet she will campaign for Remain.
This is important and for me unexpected. David Cameron might not be much cop at negotiating with the EU but he knows how to do it with Cabinet colleagues.
Those cabinet members and senior MPs who have professed to be filled to the gills with euro-scepticism over the years better start putting up or shutting up to be honest.
If remain wins UKIP will do very well out of all these newly found europhiles. It would be impossible to argue that the Tories are even soft Eurosceptics.
Priti Patel could be worth a punt for leader. Her voting record is dubious when it comes to the EU so could see her backing remain as well.
Why would people vote for UKIP if the referendum is clearly defeated? What's UKIP's pitch going to be? Vote for us and we promise to get very angry?
Are you seriously suggesting that the debate will be settled after a vote to remain? I can think of a huge number of reasons why it would not be settled.
Scottish Labour displayed similar arrogance. That worked out well for them.
Right, so UKIP aren't going to respect the referendum result. Nice of you to let us know that in advance.
If there's a vote for Remain, then UKIP will still campaign to Leave, in the same way the SNP still campaign for independence.
But as Mike has shown poll after poll has shown that the public do not consider Europe to be a major issue. They should just get over their obsession and focus on something important. The young are overwhelmingly in favour of remain so the issue will probably die out eventually.
If the public don't care, why are having this referendum?
40 years ago, young people were overwhelmingly in favour. The same age cohort thinks differently today.
@tnewtondunn · 7m7 minutes ago Breaking: Theresa May says draft EU agreement is the "basis for a deal". A big intervention, clearest sign yet she will campaign for Remain.
This is important and for me unexpected. David Cameron might not be much cop at negotiating with the EU but he knows how to do it with Cabinet colleagues.
Those cabinet members and senior MPs who have professed to be filled to the gills with euro-scepticism over the years better start putting up or shutting up to be honest.
If remain wins UKIP will do very well out of all these newly found europhiles. It would be impossible to argue that the Tories are even soft Eurosceptics.
Priti Patel could be worth a punt for leader. Her voting record is dubious when it comes to the EU so could see her backing remain as well.
Why would people vote for UKIP if the referendum is clearly defeated? What's UKIP's pitch going to be? Vote for us and we promise to get very angry?
Are you seriously suggesting that the debate will be settled after a vote to remain? I can think of a huge number of reasons why it would not be settled.
Scottish Labour displayed similar arrogance. That worked out well for them.
Right, so UKIP aren't going to respect the referendum result. Nice of you to let us know that in advance.
If there's a vote for Remain, then UKIP will still campaign to Leave, in the same way the SNP still campaign for independence.
But as Mike has shown poll after poll has shown that the public do not consider Europe to be a major issue. They should just get over their obsession and focus on something important. The young are overwhelmingly in favour of remain so the issue will probably die out eventually.
Jesus Christ you're just very thick, aren't you?
What's the number one issue of the moment, for most voters?
Migration/borders/security/refugees
That's ALL about the EU.
And you're just very unpleasant - always have been but I'll be charitable and put it down to your malaise. No it's not EU. If we left the EU there would still be migrants at Calais wanting to get here, membership or not is irrelevant
A few hundred at Calais pales in comparison to hundreds of thousands coming every year under EU free movement. I don't care about migration particularly but to pretend EU is irrelevent here is just disingenuous.
Other than politicians, has anyone claimed this is a good deal?
I know the internet is not overly representative of the wider electorate but browing a few random forums seems to suggest most people have tasted the gruel and decided it is not edible.
Forums tell you nothing, nada, zilch about the real world. Especially on issues like the EU.
Interesting development in Spain: King has asked Socialists to try to form a government. The leader of Ciudadanos has indicated he is interested in doing a deal. It would be hard for PP to oppose a PSOE/Cs hook-up. Podemos would definitely oppose it.
PSOE + C would be a good result all round
It's what I've been hoping for as it offers the best chance to resolve the mess PP caused in Catalonia. The numbers are very tight to make it work long-term, though, even if PP abstains on the parliamentary vote. Will also be very tricky for PSOE internally.
Did anyone see the U-19 cricket world cup match between Zimbabwe v west indies and how it finished,very unsporting by the Windies ;-)
Never understood why running out the non-striker is unsporting. A run is meant to be 22 yards, not 21 and surely it's the batting side which is being unsporting.
It's actually 20 yards and 2 feet (the popping creases are four feet in front of the stumps) but your point is right: it's seeking to gain an advantage and the run out law is the balance against it.
I once ran out a batsman at the strikers' end when he was batting out of his crease and played defensively down. I jogged in from square leg and took a bail off as he'd made no effort to retreat back into his ground. Same principle applies: by batting down the track, he was lessening the chance of an LBW but the flip side was that he risked a stumping (though not on this occasion as the keeper was standing back) or a run out.
I have gone back into Republican Nominee market and laid Rubio for all my profit on the market.
I do not think NH is the place for him and his price has been driven by a third place. Just imagine explaining today on the betting markets to somoene "Cruz won Iowa so naturally Rubio is now odds on favourite". Bonkers.
Rubio will likely come a good second to Trump in New Hampshire. More interesting is where Cruz is.
@tnewtondunn · 7m7 minutes ago Breaking: Theresa May says draft EU agreement is the "basis for a deal". A big intervention, clearest sign yet she will campaign for Remain.
This is important and for me unexpected. David Cameron might not be much cop at negotiating with the EU but he knows how to do it with Cabinet colleagues.
Those cabinet members and senior MPs who have professed to be filled to the gills with euro-scepticism over the years better start putting up or shutting up to be honest.
If remain wins UKIP will do very well out of all these newly found europhiles. It would be impossible to argue that the Tories are even soft Eurosceptics.
Priti Patel could be worth a punt for leader. Her voting record is dubious when it comes to the EU so could see her backing remain as well.
Why would people vote for UKIP if the referendum is clearly defeated? What's UKIP's pitch going to be? Vote for us and we promise to get very angry?
Some of us - ie. me not you - predicted BEFORE indyref that the SNP would get a huge sympathy vote after losing the vote narrowly.
I was right on all counts.
Eurosceptics will get a surge of similar sympathy voting after REMAIN wins, especially when we all realise the EU is going to treat us with contempt thereafter (which they will).
This is why it is vital for Tories to be led by at least a halfway sceptic leader, when Cameron quits.
The difference is that a huge number of Scots really cared about the result of the independence referendum. There's little indication the EU referendum is of much interest to most voters.
I presume you will be backing a low turn out then?
Why would people vote for UKIP if the referendum is clearly defeated? What's UKIP's pitch going to be? Vote for us and we promise to get very angry?
Are you seriously suggesting that the debate will be settled after a vote to remain? I can think of a huge number of reasons why it would not be settled.
Scottish Labour displayed similar arrogance. That worked out well for them.
Remain needs to win by 60/40 at a bare minimum to settle it for a generation etc etc.
I doubt they will do that.
I bet we will be revisiting the idea of a referendum within 10 years. Maybe much less if the EU falls apart.
I'm expecting 60/40 Remain minimum simply because whenever Leave are asked what comes next after a Leave vote you get a lot of spluttering, "search me guv" and angry expostulations about the wickedness of the EU.
Simply not true. For example you get a very clear answer from people like me that we want to be part of EFTA and the EEA. The fact that you get different answers from other Leave people simply reflects the fact that we all have different visions and that none of us actually have any influence over what the final arrangement will be. The job of deciding what our relationship will be after a Leave vote will rest first and foremost with Cameron and Parliament.
The only people who are really deluded are those who think that our relationship with the EU after a Remain vote will be either looser or the same as we have now. One thing we can be sure of - even more so today after Cameron's non-negotiation is that a remain vote is a vote for more EU not less.
We're being asked for guarantees which we cannot provide.
Yes, though the fact that you can't provide a guarantee doesn't mean that you don't need to provide one to win. (Though imo you can win anyway.)
Did anyone see the U-19 cricket world cup match between Zimbabwe v west indies and how it finished,very unsporting by the Windies ;-)
Never understood why running out the non-striker is unsporting. A run is meant to be 22 yards, not 21 and surely it's the batting side which is being unsporting.
Unwritten cricket law I Expect,that it's unsporting.
I always thought,you give the non batsman a warning first and the match situation of one wicket,3 runs wanted and a Quarter final place up for grabs didn't help.
A few hundred at Calais pales in comparison to hundreds of thousands coming every year under EU free movement. I don't care about migration particularly but to pretend EU is irrelevent here is just disingenuous.
And they leave again. What will you do with the 2 million who get kicked out of their homes in the rest of the EU?
@tnewtondunn · 7m7 minutes ago Breaking: Theresa May says draft EU agreement is the "basis for a deal". A big intervention, clearest sign yet she will campaign for Remain.
This is important and for me unexpected. David Cameron might not be much cop at negotiating with the EU but he knows how to do it with Cabinet colleagues.
Those cabinet members and senior MPs who have professed to be filled to the gills with euro-scepticism over the years better start putting up or shutting up to be honest.
If remain wins UKIP will do very well out of all these newly found europhiles. It would be impossible to argue that the Tories are even soft Eurosceptics.
Priti Patel could be worth a punt for leader. Her voting record is dubious when it comes to the EU so could see her backing remain as well.
Why would people vote for UKIP if the referendum is clearly defeated? What's UKIP's pitch going to be? Vote for us and we promise to get very angry?
Some of us - ie. me not you - predicted BEFORE indyref that the SNP would get a huge sympathy vote after losing the vote narrowly.
I was right on all counts.
Eurosceptics will get a surge of similar sympathy voting after REMAIN wins, especially when we all realise the EU is going to treat us with contempt thereafter (which they will).
This is why it is vital for Tories to be led by at least a halfway sceptic leader, when Cameron quits.
The difference is that a huge number of Scots really cared about the result of the independence referendum. There's little indication the EU referendum is of much interest to most voters.
I presume you will be backing a low turn out then?
@tnewtondunn · 7m7 minutes ago Breaking: Theresa May says draft EU agreement is the "basis for a deal". A big intervention, clearest sign yet she will campaign for Remain.
This is important and for me unexpected. David Cameron might not be much cop at negotiating with the EU but he knows how to do it with Cabinet colleagues.
Those cabinet members and senior MPs who have professed to be filled to the gills with euro-scepticism over the years better start putting up or shutting up to be honest.
If remain wins UKIP will do very well out of all these newly found europhiles. It would be impossible to argue that the Tories are even soft Eurosceptics.
Priti Patel could be worth a punt for leader. Her voting record is dubious when it comes to the EU so could see her backing remain as well.
Why would people vote for UKIP if the referendum is clearly defeated? What's UKIP's pitch going to be? Vote for us and we promise to get very angry?
Are you seriously suggesting that the debate will be settled after a vote to remain? I can think of a huge number of reasons why it would not be settled.
Scottish Labour displayed similar arrogance. That worked out well for them.
Right, so UKIP aren't going to respect the referendum result. Nice of you to let us know that in advance.
If there's a vote for Remain, then UKIP will still campaign to Leave, in the same way the SNP still campaign for independence.
But as Mike has shown poll after poll has shown that the public do not consider Europe to be a major issue. They should just get over their obsession and focus on something important. The young are overwhelmingly in favour of remain so the issue will probably die out eventually.
If the public don't care, why are having this referendum?
40 years ago, young people were overwhelmingly in favour. The same age cohort thinks differently today.
We're having it to keep the Tory party together.
If it was a trivial issue, it wouldn't be a problem for the Conservative Party.
But now have a eurosceptic rival supported by about 14% of the voters, as well as many of their own voters wishing to Leave.
A few hundred at Calais pales in comparison to hundreds of thousands coming every year under EU free movement. I don't care about migration particularly but to pretend EU is irrelevent here is just disingenuous.
And they leave again. What will you do with the 2 million who get kicked out of their homes in the rest of the EU?
They don't leave again. NET migration from the EU is hundreds of thousands. That means over and above the amount of leaving.
A few hundred at Calais pales in comparison to hundreds of thousands coming every year under EU free movement. I don't care about migration particularly but to pretend EU is irrelevent here is just disingenuous.
And they leave again. What will you do with the 2 million who get kicked out of their homes in the rest of the EU?
The day 2 million British expats are forcibly removed from their homes is the day 3 million jobs are lost. Sell a positive vision of the EU instead of resorting to lies and scaremongering.
'And you're just very unpleasant - always have been but I'll be charitable and put it down to your malaise. No it's not EU. If we left the EU there would still be migrants at Calais wanting to get here, membership or not is irrelevant'
If we left the EU we could control our own borders as long as we are EU members we are not allowed to.
It's really not that complicated to get your head around.
Maybe you missed the numerous polls showing immigration is the no 1 or 2 issue for voters,get the connection ?
A few hundred at Calais pales in comparison to hundreds of thousands coming every year under EU free movement. I don't care about migration particularly but to pretend EU is irrelevent here is just disingenuous.
And they leave again. What will you do with the 2 million who get kicked out of their homes in the rest of the EU?
The day 2 million British expats are forcibly removed from their homes is the day 3 million jobs are lost. Sell a positive vision of the EU instead of resorting to lies and scaremongering.
I don't think Chris_A has heard of the term 'grandfathering'.
Did anyone see the U-19 cricket world cup match between Zimbabwe v west indies and how it finished,very unsporting by the Windies ;-)
Never understood why running out the non-striker is unsporting. A run is meant to be 22 yards, not 21 and surely it's the batting side which is being unsporting.
Unwritten cricket law I Expect,that it's unsporting.
I always thought,you give the non batsman a warning first and the match situation of one wicket,3 runs wanted and a Quarter final place up for grabs didn't help.
@tnewtondunn · 7m7 minutes ago Breaking: Theresa May says draft EU agreement is the "basis for a deal". A big intervention, clearest sign yet she will campaign for Remain.
This is important and for me unexpected. David Cameron might not be much cop at negotiating with the EU but he knows how to do it with Cabinet colleagues.
Those cabinet members and senior MPs who have professed to be filled to the gills with euro-scepticism over the years better start putting up or shutting up to be honest.
If remain wins UKIP will do very well out of all these newly found europhiles. It would be impossible to argue that the Tories are even soft Eurosceptics.
Priti Patel could be worth a punt for leader. Her voting record is dubious when it comes to the EU so could see her backing remain as well.
Why would people vote for UKIP if the referendum is clearly defeated? What's UKIP's pitch going to be? Vote for us and we promise to get very angry?
Are you seriously suggesting that the debate will be settled after a vote to remain? I can think of a huge number of reasons why it would not be settled.
Scottish Labour displayed similar arrogance. That worked out well for them.
Right, so UKIP aren't going to respect the referendum result. Nice of you to let us know that in advance.
If there's a vote for Remain, then UKIP will still campaign to Leave, in the same way the SNP still campaign for independence.
But as Mike has shown poll after poll has shown that the public do not consider Europe to be a major issue. They should just get over their obsession and focus on something important. The young are overwhelmingly in favour of remain so the issue will probably die out eventually.
If the public don't care, why are having this referendum?
40 years ago, young people were overwhelmingly in favour. The same age cohort thinks differently today.
We're having it to keep the Tory party together.
The way senior Tories are currently acting is likely to do anything but keep the Tory party together.
The rank and file will feel a sense of betrayal if c. 50% of them aren't represented and that will tell, particularly if this "deal" goes south.
The red card is reasonable What would be unreasonable is if one government elected by 37 per cent of nine per cent of the EU could tell the rest what it couldn't do In or out, and in means in and out means out!
What's not reasonable is for the Eurozone to pass whatever it wants without checks. Soon Eurozone will be its own superstate, and will be able to dictate to all other EU members the way things are.
And all that Cameron has achieved, on that front, is that when we feel the City or the UK is suffering from discriminatory, pro-eurozone legislation, we can now have the issue "escalated", so it is more "widely discussed". That's it. The eurozone can still pass the law. We have no real leverage. Nothing. He has spent a year negotiating precisely nothing.
It's not just a bad deal, it's a bizarrely bad deal.
Cameron must know this, which makes his lies all the more unpalatable.
And on stopping migrant benefits he has won the right to ask again in future, but only on a temporary basis. No opt out of closer union, nothing new on competitiveness, no stop on child benefit going abroad, no opt out of working time directive, no treaty change. I expected failures on some of these but not across the board like this.
Quite. Nothing on CAP, CFP, the EU budget or returning sovereignty either. The PM has got nothing but words from the EU, there's no substance to it and no reason the whole thing won't get put in the small round filing cabinet on the floor the next time a crisis demands it.
I've been a huge Cameron fan for 10 years now, this is the first time he's really messed up since he became PM.
Did anyone see the U-19 cricket world cup match between Zimbabwe v west indies and how it finished,very unsporting by the Windies ;-)
Never understood why running out the non-striker is unsporting. A run is meant to be 22 yards, not 21 and surely it's the batting side which is being unsporting.
Unwritten cricket law I Expect,that it's unsporting.
I always thought,you give the non batsman a warning first and the match situation of one wicket,3 runs wanted and a Quarter final place up for grabs didn't help.
Chris A..Total nonsense..and scaremongering..why do you post such rubbish ..Why would two million people be kicked out of Europe if we vote to leave..it is worse than the ridiculous statement that 3 million jobs would go in the UK..a few pieces if verifiable info would not go amiss..plonker..
The red card is reasonable What would be unreasonable is if one government elected by 37 per cent of nine per cent of the EU could tell the rest what it couldn't do In or out, and in means in and out means out!
What's not reasonable is for the Eurozone to pass whatever it wants without checks. Soon Eurozone will be its own superstate, and will be able to dictate to all other EU members the way things are.
And all that Cameron has achieved, on that front, is that when we feel the City or the UK is suffering from discriminatory, pro-eurozone legislation, we can now have the issue "escalated", so it is more "widely discussed". That's it. The eurozone can still pass the law. We have no real leverage. Nothing. He has spent a year negotiating precisely nothing.
It's not just a bad deal, it's a bizarrely bad deal.
Cameron must know this, which makes his lies all the more unpalatable.
And on stopping migrant benefits he has won the right to ask again in future, but only on a temporary basis. No opt out of closer union, nothing new on competitiveness, no stop on child benefit going abroad, no opt out of working time directive, no treaty change. I expected failures on some of these but not across the board like this.
Yes, it's a quite remarkable failure. Either it shows he never really tried, or that he never really wanted to try, or that Britain's hand is so weak this is genuinely the best he could get.
I'm going for option 2. Never really wanted to play hardball.
He's a mild europhile. And a clubbable chap. Likes being at the top table. Didn't want to be rude to his European friends. Also he has a high opinion of himself, and he thinks he can sell this old tat to the public, whatevs.
Disagree. I think Cameron wanted the best deal he could get, but he let it slip too early he would campaign to stay in regardless and refused to set red lines what could come back to haunt him. This fatally undermined his leverage.
@tnewtondunn · 7m7 minutes ago Breaking: Theresa May says draft EU agreement is the "basis for a deal". A big intervention, clearest sign yet she will campaign for Remain.
This is important and for me unexpected. David Cameron might not be much cop at negotiating with the EU but he knows how to do it with Cabinet colleagues.
The site of Tory MP after Tory MP falling into line behind remain is as surprising as is pathetic, by which I mean very.
I am a Remainer so you think this would please me but it does not. The Foundation of democracy is people campaigning on the issues they believe in. Here we see people putting their career first and their country second.
Not necessarily - maybe they were never as eurosceptic as they appeared. They may not be putting career before country, it's just that push comes to shove they weren't really likely to ever be leavers in the first place. Disappointing, but not necessarily immoral.
Did anyone see the U-19 cricket world cup match between Zimbabwe v west indies and how it finished,very unsporting by the Windies ;-)
Why have the ICC not ruled definitively on mankading and precisely what is and is not allowed? If people think it is so unsporting they should get rid of it rather than rely on mere etiquette.
A few hundred at Calais pales in comparison to hundreds of thousands coming every year under EU free movement. I don't care about migration particularly but to pretend EU is irrelevent here is just disingenuous.
And they leave again. What will you do with the 2 million who get kicked out of their homes in the rest of the EU?
The day 2 million British expats are forcibly removed from their homes is the day 3 million jobs are lost. Sell a positive vision of the EU instead of resorting to lies and scaremongering.
@tnewtondunn · 7m7 minutes ago Breaking: Theresa May says draft EU agreement is the "basis for a deal". A big intervention, clearest sign yet she will campaign for Remain.
This is important and for me unexpected. David Cameron might not be much cop at negotiating with the EU but he knows how to do it with Cabinet colleagues.
Those cabinet members and senior MPs who have professed to be filled to the gills with euro-scepticism over the years better start putting up or shutting up to be honest.
If remain wins UKIP will do very well out of all these newly found europhiles. It would be impossible to argue that the Tories are even soft Eurosceptics.
Priti Patel could be worth a punt for leader. Her voting record is dubious when it comes to the EU so could see her backing remain as well.
Why would people vote for UKIP if the referendum is clearly defeated? What's UKIP's pitch going to be? Vote for us and we promise to get very angry?
Some of us - ie. me not you - predicted BEFORE indyref that the SNP would get a huge sympathy vote after losing the vote narrowly.
I was right on all counts.
Eurosceptics will get a surge of similar sympathy voting after REMAIN wins, especially when we all realise the EU is going to treat us with contempt thereafter (which they will).
This is why it is vital for Tories to be led by at least a halfway sceptic leader, when Cameron quits.
The difference is that a huge number of Scots really cared about the result of the independence referendum. There's little indication the EU referendum is of much interest to most voters.
I presume you will be backing a low turn out then?
The red card is reasonable What would be unreasonable is if one government elected by 37 per cent of nine per cent of the EU could tell the rest what it couldn't do In or out, and in means in and out means out!
What's not reasonable is for the Eurozone to pass whatever it wants without checks. Soon Eurozone will be its own superstate, and will be able to dictate to all other EU members the way things are.
And all that Cameron has achieved, on that front, is that when we feel the City or the UK is suffering from discriminatory, pro-eurozone legislation, we can now have the issue "escalated", so it is more "widely discussed". That's it. The eurozone can still pass the law. We have no real leverage. Nothing. He has spent a year negotiating precisely nothing.
It's not just a bad deal, it's a bizarrely bad deal.
Cameron must know this, which makes his lies all the more unpalatable.
And on stopping migrant benefits he has won the right to ask again in future, but only on a temporary basis. No opt out of closer union, nothing new on competitiveness, no stop on child benefit going abroad, no opt out of working time directive, no treaty change. I expected failures on some of these but not across the board like this.
Yes, it's a quite remarkable failure. Either it shows he never really tried, or that he never really wanted to try, or that Britain's hand is so weak this is genuinely the best he could get.
I'm going for option 2. Never really wanted to play hardball.
He's a mild europhile. And a clubbable chap. Likes being at the top table. Didn't want to be rude to his European friends. Also he has a high opinion of himself, and he thinks he can sell this old tat to the public, whatevs.
Disagree. I think Cameron wanted the best deal he could get, but he let it slip too early he would campaign to stay in regardless and refused to set red lines what could come back to haunt him. This fatally undermined his leverage.
Which is why he should turn around now and say he's campaigning for leave unless the EU up their offer. Not going to happen, but I can dream.
@tnewtondunn · 7m7 minutes ago Breaking: Theresa May says draft EU agreement is the "basis for a deal". A big intervention, clearest sign yet she will campaign for Remain.
This is important and for me unexpected. David Cameron might not be much cop at negotiating with the EU but he knows how to do it with Cabinet colleagues.
Those cabinet members and senior MPs who have professed to be filled to the gills with euro-scepticism over the years better start putting up or shutting up to be honest.
If remain wins UKIP will do very well out of all these newly found europhiles. It would be impossible to argue that the Tories are even soft Eurosceptics.
Priti Patel could be worth a punt for leader. Her voting record is dubious when it comes to the EU so could see her backing remain as well.
Why would people vote for UKIP if the referendum is clearly defeated? What's UKIP's pitch going to be? Vote for us and we promise to get very angry?
Are you seriously suggesting that the debate will be settled after a vote to remain? I can think of a huge number of reasons why it would not be settled.
Scottish Labour displayed similar arrogance. That worked out well for them.
Right, so UKIP aren't going to respect the referendum result. Nice of you to let us know that in advance.
If there's a vote for Remain, then UKIP will still campaign to Leave, in the same way the SNP still campaign for independence.
But as Mike has shown poll after poll has shown that the public do not consider Europe to be a major issue. They should just get over their obsession and focus on something important. The young are overwhelmingly in favour of remain so the issue will probably die out eventually.
If the public don't care, why are having this referendum?
40 years ago, young people were overwhelmingly in favour. The same age cohort thinks differently today.
We're having it to keep the Tory party together.
If it was a trivial issue, it wouldn't be a problem for the Conservative Party.
But now have a eurosceptic rival supported by about 14% of the voters, as well as many of their own voters wishing to Leave.
Besides, the issue is fundamental, public opinion is conflicted, we need to sort out what we want. As I said, we should have had this referendum (without the renegotiation bollocks) years ago.
Incidentally I really feel for you all who have Theresa May next leader slips. Today must be like a personal betrayal.
Yes, all the evidence (for me) pointed towards her declaring for Leave. Even as recently as her statement last night; the pressure on the PM that the deal wasn't good enough, her lunch with Fox, her constant counsel and her awkwardness when asked about it.
I have no idea what's in it for her in declaring for Remain. Maybe she doesn't want to lose her power base of Home Secretary to Boris in what she may feel is a lost cause.
Or maybe Osborne has everyone's kids held hostage and locked up in a dungeon somewhere.
Chris A..Total nonsense..and scaremongering..why do you post such rubbish ..Why would two million people be kicked out of Europe if we vote to leave..it is worse than the ridiculous statement that 3 million jobs would go in the UK..a few pieces if verifiable info would not go amiss..plonker..
So you think the EU would be quite content for us to turn away their citizens but they won't feel like doing the same?
A few hundred at Calais pales in comparison to hundreds of thousands coming every year under EU free movement. I don't care about migration particularly but to pretend EU is irrelevent here is just disingenuous.
And they leave again. What will you do with the 2 million who get kicked out of their homes in the rest of the EU?
I'll sell that at a pound per eviction in the event of leave.
@tnewtondunn · 7m7 minutes ago Breaking: Theresa May says draft EU agreement is the "basis for a deal". A big intervention, clearest sign yet she will campaign for Remain.
This is important and for me unexpected. David Cameron might not be much cop at negotiating with the EU but he knows how to do it with Cabinet colleagues.
Those cabinet members and senior MPs who have professed to be filled to the gills with euro-scepticism over the years better start putting up or shutting up to be honest.
If remain wins UKIP will do very well out of all these newly found europhiles. It would be impossible to argue that the Tories are even soft Eurosceptics.
Priti Patel could be worth a punt for leader. Her voting record is dubious when it comes to the EU so could see her backing remain as well.
Why would people vote for UKIP if the referendum is clearly defeated? What's UKIP's pitch going to be? Vote for us and we promise to get very angry?
Some of us - ie. me not you - predicted BEFORE indyref that the SNP would get a huge sympathy vote after losing the vote narrowly.
I was right on all counts.
Eurosceptics will get a surge of similar sympathy voting after REMAIN wins, especially when we all realise the EU is going to treat us with contempt thereafter (which they will).
This is why it is vital for Tories to be led by at least a halfway sceptic leader, when Cameron quits.
The difference is that a huge number of Scots really cared about the result of the independence referendum. There's little indication the EU referendum is of much interest to most voters.
I presume you will be backing a low turn out then?
Did anyone see the U-19 cricket world cup match between Zimbabwe v west indies and how it finished,very unsporting by the Windies ;-)
Never understood why running out the non-striker is unsporting. A run is meant to be 22 yards, not 21 and surely it's the batting side which is being unsporting.
In this instance it doesn't look from the image like they were trying to steal a run or anything, just dragged his bad just outside, more mistimed his stroll as the bowler would approach. A warning would have been nice, but it's not a law, so of course it happens.
The red card is reasonable What would be unreasonable is if one government elected by 37 per cent of nine per cent of the EU could tell the rest what it couldn't do In or out, and in means in and out means out!
What's not reasonable is for the Eurozone to pass whatever it wants without checks. Soon Eurozone will be its own superstate, and will be able to dictate to all other EU members the way things are.
And all that Cameron has achieved, on that front, is that when we feel the City or the UK is suffering from discriminatory, pro-eurozone legislation, we can now have the issue "escalated", so it is more "widely discussed". That's it. The eurozone can still pass the law. We have no real leverage. Nothing. He has spent a year negotiating precisely nothing.
It's not just a bad deal, it's a bizarrely bad deal.
Cameron must know this, which makes his lies all the more unpalatable.
And on stopping migrant benefits he has won the right to ask again in future, but only on a temporary basis. No opt out of closer union, nothing new on competitiveness, no stop on child benefit going abroad, no opt out of working time directive, no treaty change. I expected failures on some of these but not across the board like this.
Yes, it's a quite remarkable failure. Either it shows he never really tried, or that he never really wanted to try, or that Britain's hand is so weak this is genuinely the best he could get. I'm going for option 2. Never really wanted to play hardball. He's a mild europhile. And a clubbable chap. Likes being at the top table. Didn't want to be rude to his European friends. Also he has a high opinion of himself, and he thinks he can sell this old tat to the public, whatevs.
If Cameron wanted more from the EU he would never have had the europhile Liddington as his Europe Minister. Judge a man by the company he keeps - or those he appoints.
Chris A..Total nonsense..and scaremongering..why do you post such rubbish ..Why would two million people be kicked out of Europe if we vote to leave..it is worse than the ridiculous statement that 3 million jobs would go in the UK..a few pieces if verifiable info would not go amiss..plonker..
So you think the EU would be quite content for us to turn away their citizens but they won't feel like doing the same?
Stop digging mate, you look more foolish with each post.
'And you're just very unpleasant - always have been but I'll be charitable and put it down to your malaise. No it's not EU. If we left the EU there would still be migrants at Calais wanting to get here, membership or not is irrelevant'
If we left the EU we could control our own borders as long as we are EU members we are not allowed to.
It's really not that complicated to get your head around.
Maybe you missed the numerous polls showing immigration is the no 1 or 2 issue for voters,get the connection ?
We do control our borders viz the long queues when returning to the country. A Frenchman moving here is not immigration, he has as much right to live here as you have in Nice.
The red card is reasonable What would be unreasonable is if one government elected by 37 per cent of nine per cent of the EU could tell the rest what it couldn't do In or out, and in means in and out means out!
What's not reasonable is for the Eurozone to pass whatever it wants without checks. Soon Eurozone will be its own superstate, and will be able to dictate to all other EU members the way things are.
And all that Cameron has achieved, on that front, is that when we feel the City or the UK is suffering from discriminatory, pro-eurozone legislation, we can now have the issue "escalated", so it is more "widely discussed". That's it. The eurozone can still pass the law. We have no real leverage. Nothing. He has spent a year negotiating precisely nothing.
It's not just a bad deal, it's a bizarrely bad deal.
Cameron must know this, which makes his lies all the more unpalatable.
And on stopping migrant benefits he has won the right to ask again in future, but only on a temporary basis. No opt out of closer union, nothing new on competitiveness, no stop on child benefit going abroad, no opt out of working time directive, no treaty change. I expected failures on some of these but not across the board like this.
Yes, it's a quite remarkable failure. Either it shows he never really tried, or that he never really wanted to try, or that Britain's hand is so weak this is genuinely the best he could get.
I'm going for option 2. Never really wanted to play hardball.
He's a mild europhile. And a clubbable chap. Likes being at the top table. Didn't want to be rude to his European friends. Also he has a high opinion of himself, and he thinks he can sell this old tat to the public, whatevs.
Disagree. I think Cameron wanted the best deal he could get, but he let it slip too early he would campaign to stay in regardless and refused to set red lines what could come back to haunt him. This fatally undermined his leverage.
Which is why he should turn around now and say he's campaigning for leave unless the EU up their offer. Not going to happen, but I can dream.
After today it is difficult to say with a straight face that the UK has any clout or influence in the EU. We will be forever on the sidelines, tolerated but not respected.
'And you're just very unpleasant - always have been but I'll be charitable and put it down to your malaise. No it's not EU. If we left the EU there would still be migrants at Calais wanting to get here, membership or not is irrelevant'
If we left the EU we could control our own borders as long as we are EU members we are not allowed to.
It's really not that complicated to get your head around.
Maybe you missed the numerous polls showing immigration is the no 1 or 2 issue for voters,get the connection ?
One thing this debate has already proven, to me, here and on Twitter, is the REMAINERS are generally much stupider and less well informed on European issues than LEAVERS, as Chris A shows. They genuinely don't understand how migration into Germany will in time become an issue for the UK, under EU law.
Similar to the herd like approach to the ERM and the Euro. All having the same view without thinking it fully through.
Chris A..Total nonsense..and scaremongering..why do you post such rubbish ..Why would two million people be kicked out of Europe if we vote to leave..it is worse than the ridiculous statement that 3 million jobs would go in the UK..a few pieces if verifiable info would not go amiss..plonker..
So you think the EU would be quite content for us to turn away their citizens but they won't feel like doing the same?
Are we planning to expel existing EU citizens resident here?
A few hundred at Calais pales in comparison to hundreds of thousands coming every year under EU free movement. I don't care about migration particularly but to pretend EU is irrelevent here is just disingenuous.
And they leave again. What will you do with the 2 million who get kicked out of their homes in the rest of the EU?
The day 2 million British expats are forcibly removed from their homes is the day 3 million jobs are lost. Sell a positive vision of the EU instead of resorting to lies and scaremongering.
I don't think Chris_A has heard of the term 'grandfathering'.
I have, and such rights can be revoked. And I'm glad that the majority of expats will have a vote in the referendum.
A few hundred at Calais pales in comparison to hundreds of thousands coming every year under EU free movement. I don't care about migration particularly but to pretend EU is irrelevent here is just disingenuous.
And they leave again. What will you do with the 2 million who get kicked out of their homes in the rest of the EU?
The day 2 million British expats are forcibly removed from their homes is the day 3 million jobs are lost. Sell a positive vision of the EU instead of resorting to lies and scaremongering.
I don't think Chris_A has heard of the term 'grandfathering'.
I have gone back into Republican Nominee market and laid Rubio for all my profit on the market.
I do not think NH is the place for him and his price has been driven by a third place. Just imagine explaining today on the betting markets to somoene "Cruz won Iowa so naturally Rubio is now odds on favourite". Bonkers.
Rubio will likely come a good second to Trump in New Hampshire. More interesting is where Cruz is.
Second in 1 out of 2 NH polls today and 1 behind Rubio in the other and Cruz won Iowa, Rubio came third, who gets more momentum?
Comments
I'd be more cautious.
There was already a hint of Trump fading and Rubio rising in any case if you look again.
UMassLowell/7News
GOP
Trump 38%
Cruz 14%
Rubio 10%
Kasich 9%
Bush 9%
Dems
Sanders 63%
Clinton 30%
http://www.uml.edu/docs/2-2 TOPLINE - UMassLowell-7NEWS NH PRIMARY_tcm18-230491.pdf
ARG
GOP
Trump 34%
Kasich 16%
Rubio 11%
Cruz 10%
Bush 9%
Dems
Sanders 49%
Clinton 43%
http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2016/primary/rep/nhrep.html
What would be unreasonable is if one government elected by 37 per cent of nine per cent of the EU could tell the rest what it couldn't do
In or out, and in means in and out means out!
Eurosceptic Tories now have a very tricky choice indeed.
If one wanted to try to measure it one might count up newspaper editorials and columns, letters, political speeches on each side. Or one could not do that and have another drink instead.
This is my prediction of the day !
40 years ago, young people were overwhelmingly in favour. The same age cohort thinks differently today.
The only people who are really deluded are those who think that our relationship with the EU after a Remain vote will be either looser or the same as we have now. One thing we can be sure of - even more so today after Cameron's non-negotiation is that a remain vote is a vote for more EU not less.
b) assign a winner to each battle.
c) list those won by REMAIN
The only REMAIN wins I can think of are ensuring Reckless, Gove, May(?), Hammond, Hague, Cameron et al are all REMAIN. That's it. Whether to have a referendum at all, who should the electorate be, the wording of the question, whether the renegotiations are presented as a success or failure, the neutrality of the Conservative Party apparatus and the Civil Service, who should be mocked, all have been LEAVE victories. The only misstep was when they realised that mocking June Sarpong was infra dig given the death of her brother, but other than that the Leavemacht rolled on regardless.
Cameron is relying solely on personal charisma and the rightness of his cause to win. I think that's naive and I think he will lose.
Anyhoo, I gotta go back to work. Laters.
Donald Rumsfeld has released a Solitaire video game app:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/erikkain/2016/01/23/donald-rumsfeld-just-released-a-video-game-churchill-solitaire/#330d92766624
I know the internet is not overly representative of the wider electorate but browing a few random forums seems to suggest most people have tasted the gruel and decided it is not edible.
Possibly a little tricky for those in the Cabinet or aspirational MPs, but for the rank and file members and backbenchers it's pretty straightforward.
I am a Remainer so you think this would please me but it does not. The Foundation of democracy is people campaigning on the issues they believe in. Here we see people putting their career first and their country second.
No change would ever come about but for the campaigning of what were once - and usually still are - minority interests.
http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2016/02/may-now-probably-for-remain-but-dont-be-sure.html
I do not think NH is the place for him and his price has been driven by a third place. Just imagine explaining today on the betting markets to somoene "Cruz won Iowa so naturally Rubio is now odds on favourite". Bonkers.
What does this combination of facts mean? I can't entirely work it out.
I once ran out a batsman at the strikers' end when he was batting out of his crease and played defensively down. I jogged in from square leg and took a bail off as he'd made no effort to retreat back into his ground. Same principle applies: by batting down the track, he was lessening the chance of an LBW but the flip side was that he risked a stumping (though not on this occasion as the keeper was standing back) or a run out.
I always thought,you give the non batsman a warning first and the match situation of one wicket,3 runs wanted and a Quarter final place up for grabs didn't help.
Still left me with feelings it was wrong.
But now have a eurosceptic rival supported by about 14% of the voters, as well as many of their own voters wishing to Leave.
'And you're just very unpleasant - always have been but I'll be charitable and put it down to your malaise. No it's not EU. If we left the EU there would still be migrants at Calais wanting to get here, membership or not is irrelevant'
If we left the EU we could control our own borders as long as we are EU members we are not allowed to.
It's really not that complicated to get your head around.
Maybe you missed the numerous polls showing immigration is the no 1 or 2 issue for voters,get the connection ?
The rank and file will feel a sense of betrayal if c. 50% of them aren't represented and that will tell, particularly if this "deal" goes south.
Which it will.
I've been a huge Cameron fan for 10 years now, this is the first time he's really messed up since he became PM.
Uncertainty
Doubt
I have no idea what's in it for her in declaring for Remain. Maybe she doesn't want to lose her power base of Home Secretary to Boris in what she may feel is a lost cause.
Or maybe Osborne has everyone's kids held hostage and locked up in a dungeon somewhere.