Chris A..Total nonsense..and scaremongering..why do you post such rubbish ..Why would two million people be kicked out of Europe if we vote to leave..it is worse than the ridiculous statement that 3 million jobs would go in the UK..a few pieces if verifiable info would not go amiss..plonker..
So you think the EU would be quite content for us to turn away their citizens but they won't feel like doing the same?
Are we planning to expel existing EU citizens resident here?
@tnewtondunn · 7m7 minutes ago Breaking: Theresa May says draft EU agreement is the "basis for a deal". A big intervention, clearest sign yet she will campaign for Remain.
This is important and for me unexpected. David Cameron might not be much cop at negotiating with the EU but he knows how to do it with Cabinet colleagues.
Those cabinet members and senior MPs who have professed to be filled to the gills with euro-scepticism over the years better start putting up or shutting up to be honest.
If remain wins UKIP will do very well out of all these newly found europhiles. It would be impossible to argue that the Tories are even soft Eurosceptics.
Priti Patel could be worth a punt for leader. Her voting record is dubious when it comes to the EU so could see her backing remain as well.
Why would people vote for UKIP if the referendum is clearly defeated? What's UKIP's pitch going to be? Vote for us and we promise to get very angry?
Are you seriously suggesting that the debate will be settled after a vote to remain? I can think of a huge number of reasons why it would not be settled.
Scottish Labour displayed similar arrogance. That worked out well for them.
Right, so UKIP aren't going to respect the referendum result. Nice of you to let us know that in advance.
If there's a vote for Remain, then UKIP will still campaign to Leave, in the same way the SNP still campaign for independence.
But as Mike has shown poll after poll has shown that the public do not consider Europe to be a major issue. They should just get over their obsession and focus on something important. The young are overwhelmingly in favour of remain so the issue will probably die out eventually.
If the public don't care, why are having this referendum?
40 years ago, young people were overwhelmingly in favour. The same age cohort thinks differently today.
We're having it to keep the Tory party together.
The way senior Tories are currently acting is likely to do anything but keep the Tory party together. The rank and file will feel a sense of betrayal if c. 50% of them aren't represented and that will tell, particularly if this "deal" goes south. Which it will.
The boundary changes and candidate selections will be a blood bath.
Chris A..Total nonsense..and scaremongering..why do you post such rubbish ..Why would two million people be kicked out of Europe if we vote to leave..it is worse than the ridiculous statement that 3 million jobs would go in the UK..a few pieces if verifiable info would not go amiss..plonker..
So you think the EU would be quite content for us to turn away their citizens but they won't feel like doing the same?
Since no one has said we would or should kick out any EU citizen already living in the UK, you are just continuing with the traditional Europhile trick of making stuff up and hoping to scare people. You really are a quite despicable little man.
@tnewtondunn · 7m7 minutes ago Breaking: Theresa May says draft EU agreement is the "basis for a deal". A big intervention, clearest sign yet she will campaign for Remain.
This is important and for me unexpected. David Cameron might not be much cop at negotiating with the EU but he knows how to do it with Cabinet colleagues.
Those cabinet members and senior MPs who have professed to be filled to the gills with euro-scepticism over the years better start putting up or shutting up to be honest.
If remain wins UKIP will do very well out of all these newly found europhiles. It would be impossible to argue that the Tories are even soft Eurosceptics.
Priti Patel could be worth a punt for leader. Her voting record is dubious when it comes to the EU so could see her backing remain as well.
Why would people vote for UKIP if the referendum is clearly defeated? What's UKIP's pitch going to be? Vote for us and we promise to get very angry?
Some of us - ie. me not you - predicted BEFORE indyref that the SNP would get a huge sympathy vote after losing the vote narrowly.
I was right on all counts.
Eurosceptics will get a surge of similar sympathy voting after REMAIN wins, especially when we all realise the EU is going to treat us with contempt thereafter (which they will).
This is why it is vital for Tories to be led by at least a halfway sceptic leader, when Cameron quits.
The difference is that a huge number of Scots really cared about the result of the independence referendum. There's little indication the EU referendum is of much interest to most voters.
I presume you will be backing a low turn out then?
I expect it to be lower than the GE.
£20 bet then?
No chance!!
So you were bullshitting like all Remainers then.
I am not a Remainer. I am a totally disengaged observer, already bored of the whole thing.
I have gone back into Republican Nominee market and laid Rubio for all my profit on the market.
I do not think NH is the place for him and his price has been driven by a third place. Just imagine explaining today on the betting markets to somoene "Cruz won Iowa so naturally Rubio is now odds on favourite". Bonkers.
Rubio will likely come a good second to Trump in New Hampshire. More interesting is where Cruz is.
Second in 1 out of 2 NH polls today and 1 behind Rubio in the other and Cruz won Iowa, Rubio came third, who gets more momentum?
@tnewtondunn · 7m7 minutes ago Breaking: Theresa May says draft EU agreement is the "basis for a deal". A big intervention, clearest sign yet she will campaign for Remain.
This is important and for me unexpected. David Cameron might not be much cop at negotiating with the EU but he knows how to do it with Cabinet colleagues.
Those cabinet members and senior MPs who have professed to be filled to the gills with euro-scepticism over the years better start putting up or shutting up to be honest.
If remain wins UKIP will do very well out of all these newly found europhiles. It would be impossible to argue that the Tories are even soft Eurosceptics.
Priti Patel could be worth a punt for leader. Her voting record is dubious when it comes to the EU so could see her backing remain as well.
Why would people vote for UKIP if the referendum is clearly defeated? What's UKIP's pitch going to be? Vote for us and we promise to get very angry?
Are you seriously suggesting that the debate will be settled after a vote to remain? I can think of a huge number of reasons why it would not be settled.
Scottish Labour displayed similar arrogance. That worked out well for them.
Right, so UKIP aren't going to respect the referendum result. Nice of you to let us know that in advance.
If there's a vote for Remain, then UKIP will still campaign to Leave, in the same way the SNP still campaign for independence.
But as Mike has shown poll after poll has shown that the public do not consider Europe to be a major issue. They should just get over their obsession and focus on something important. The young are overwhelmingly in favour of remain so the issue will probably die out eventually.
If the public don't care, why are having this referendum?
40 years ago, young people were overwhelmingly in favour. The same age cohort thinks differently today.
We're having it to keep the Tory party together.
The way senior Tories are currently acting is likely to do anything but keep the Tory party together.
The rank and file will feel a sense of betrayal if c. 50% of them aren't represented and that will tell, particularly if this "deal" goes south.
Which it will.
There will be at least IDS and Grayling for Leave, surely?
And they leave again. What will you do with the 2 million who get kicked out of their homes in the rest of the EU?'
'I'll sell that at a pound per eviction in the event of leave.'
Clegg will be along in a minute to tell us about the 3 million jobs we will lose with BREXIT, the same 3 million we were going to lose if we didn't join the €uro
Chris A..Total nonsense..and scaremongering..why do you post such rubbish ..Why would two million people be kicked out of Europe if we vote to leave..it is worse than the ridiculous statement that 3 million jobs would go in the UK..a few pieces if verifiable info would not go amiss..plonker..
So you think the EU would be quite content for us to turn away their citizens but they won't feel like doing the same?
Are we planning to expel existing EU citizens resident here?
Of course not, there's no way we would do anything that reduces tourism and stops people living in the UK if they can support themselves. It will mean that we can stop people moving here to sign on or sell the Big Issue, and we can restrict employment to areas of need rather than the current free for all.
Chris A..Total nonsense..and scaremongering..why do you post such rubbish ..Why would two million people be kicked out of Europe if we vote to leave..it is worse than the ridiculous statement that 3 million jobs would go in the UK..a few pieces if verifiable info would not go amiss..plonker..
So you think the EU would be quite content for us to turn away their citizens but they won't feel like doing the same?
Since no one has said we would or should kick out any EU citizen already living in the UK, you are just continuing with the tradiitnal Europhile trick of making stuff up and hoping to scare people. You really are a quite despicable little man.
I'm sorry Richard, but that's just wrong.
First, we will make EU citizens living in the UK wear badges with a bunch of stars on them. Secondly, we'll require them to live in South Kensington. Thirdly, we'll round them up and put them in camps.
Chris A..Total nonsense..and scaremongering..why do you post such rubbish ..Why would two million people be kicked out of Europe if we vote to leave..it is worse than the ridiculous statement that 3 million jobs would go in the UK..a few pieces if verifiable info would not go amiss..plonker..
So you think the EU would be quite content for us to turn away their citizens but they won't feel like doing the same?
Are we planning to expel existing EU citizens resident here?
Of course not, there's no way we would do anything that reduces tourism and stops people living in the UK if they can support themselves. It will mean that we can stop people moving here to sign on or sell the Big Issue, and we can restrict employment to areas of need rather than the current free for all.
I know that, you know that, Chris_A apparently doesn't know that.
Incidentally I really feel for you all who have Theresa May next leader slips. Today must be like a personal betrayal.
Yes, all the evidence (for me) pointed towards her declaring for Leave. Even as recently as her statement last night; the pressure on the PM that the deal wasn't good enough, her lunch with Fox, her constant counsel and her awkwardness when asked about it. I have no idea what's in it for her in declaring for Remain. Maybe she doesn't want to lose her power base of Home Secretary to Boris in what she may feel is a lost cause.
She seems to have lost the opportunity of creating her own major support group in the party. At a stroke getting probably 50%+ to her side. Strange as one of her ex advisors is in the LEAVE camp. Unless she goes for out at the end of the negotiation.
Incidentally I really feel for you all who have Theresa May next leader slips. Today must be like a personal betrayal.
Yes, all the evidence (for me) pointed towards her declaring for Leave. Even as recently as her statement last night; the pressure on the PM that the deal wasn't good enough, her lunch with Fox, her constant counsel and her awkwardness when asked about it.
I have no idea what's in it for her in declaring for Remain. Maybe she doesn't want to lose her power base of Home Secretary to Boris in what she may feel is a lost cause.
Or maybe Osborne has everyone's kids held hostage and locked up in a dungeon somewhere.
Theresa May is an arch-insider. The only way she would ever campaign for Leave is if the Cameroons felt they needed to cover all the bases to secure the succession. Evidently they don't, so she won't. Hoping Theresa May will plump for out is up there with hoping David Cameron will plump for out if he 'doesn't get the deal he wants' or if Europe 'pushes him too far'.
Beyond the lack of new mechanisms for non-Euro protection, there are two things I find particularly shocking. One is the declaration in the memo that non-Euro members can be treated differently for 'objective reasons'. The other is the agreement that we'll stand aside from any negotiation for future Euro integration treaties. Next PM must repudiate last bit ASAP.
Chris A..Total nonsense..and scaremongering..why do you post such rubbish ..Why would two million people be kicked out of Europe if we vote to leave..it is worse than the ridiculous statement that 3 million jobs would go in the UK..a few pieces if verifiable info would not go amiss..plonker..
So you think the EU would be quite content for us to turn away their citizens but they won't feel like doing the same?
Since no one has said we would or should kick out any EU citizen already living in the UK, you are just continuing with the tradiitnal Europhile trick of making stuff up and hoping to scare people. You really are a quite despicable little man.
I'm sorry Richard, but that's just wrong.
First, we will make EU citizens living in the UK wear badges with a bunch of stars on them. Secondly, we'll require them to live in South Kensington. Thirdly, we'll round them up and put them in camps.
Chris A..Total nonsense..and scaremongering..why do you post such rubbish ..Why would two million people be kicked out of Europe if we vote to leave..it is worse than the ridiculous statement that 3 million jobs would go in the UK..a few pieces if verifiable info would not go amiss..plonker..
So you think the EU would be quite content for us to turn away their citizens but they won't feel like doing the same?
Since no one has said we would or should kick out any EU citizen already living in the UK, you are just continuing with the tradiitnal Europhile trick of making stuff up and hoping to scare people. You really are a quite despicable little man.
I'm sorry Richard, but that's just wrong.
First, we will make EU citizens living in the UK wear badges with a bunch of stars on them. Secondly, we'll require them to live in South Kensington. Thirdly, we'll round them up and put them in camps.
Oh wait... is that not the script?
Wrong.
They will be conscripted to aid TSE in finally completing his magnum opus AV thread.
The key thing you need to understand is that the vast majority of normal people (that is, those that don't post on here!) don't really have a clue about what the EU is all about. Sure, the "Ever Closer Union" thing does get a fair few people riled, me included, but most don't really worry about the minutiae of Europe. What they do see is immigration. Migrants massing at the borders, like a scene from the The Walking Dead does get traction. Merkel opening up Germany has been noticed. I hear far more people complaining about immigration now than I used to, whether it's the builder complaining about shoddy Polish workmanship that he's got to make good, or the gang of migrants hanging around one of the many newly opened Eastern Europe/Mid Eastern late night mini markets in our nearest town. Like it or not, most people don't think of the financial policies of the EU as the problem, they see immigration as the biggest EU issue.
Chris A..Total nonsense..and scaremongering..why do you post such rubbish ..Why would two million people be kicked out of Europe if we vote to leave..it is worse than the ridiculous statement that 3 million jobs would go in the UK..a few pieces if verifiable info would not go amiss..plonker..
So you think the EU would be quite content for us to turn away their citizens but they won't feel like doing the same?
Since no one has said we would or should kick out any EU citizen already living in the UK, you are just continuing with the tradiitnal Europhile trick of making stuff up and hoping to scare people. You really are a quite despicable little man.
I'm sorry Richard, but that's just wrong.
First, we will make EU citizens living in the UK wear badges with a bunch of stars on them. Secondly, we'll require them to live in South Kensington. Thirdly, we'll round them up and put them in camps.
Oh wait... is that not the script?
Wrong.
They will be conscripted to aid TSE in finally completing his magnum opus AV thread.
Incidentally I really feel for you all who have Theresa May next leader slips. Today must be like a personal betrayal.
Yes, all the evidence (for me) pointed towards her declaring for Leave. Even as recently as her statement last night; the pressure on the PM that the deal wasn't good enough, her lunch with Fox, her constant counsel and her awkwardness when asked about it. I have no idea what's in it for her in declaring for Remain. Maybe she doesn't want to lose her power base of Home Secretary to Boris in what she may feel is a lost cause.
She seems to have lost the opportunity of creating her own major support group in the party. At a stroke getting probably 50%+ to her side. Strange as one of her ex advisors is in the LEAVE camp. Unless she goes for out at the end of the negotiation.
That's why I'm wondering why she said it was the "basis of a deal". Sounds like a get out clause (if you pardon the pun).
Why is May saying it is the "basis of a deal". Isn't this the deal?
The migrant benefits argument screams trap to me. There will be more concessions granted which will enable Dave to claim a great victory. The benefits are so insignificant and are diverting attention away from more important issues likes preventing a Eurozone block vote.
Chris A..Total nonsense..and scaremongering..why do you post such rubbish ..Why would two million people be kicked out of Europe if we vote to leave..it is worse than the ridiculous statement that 3 million jobs would go in the UK..a few pieces if verifiable info would not go amiss..plonker..
So you think the EU would be quite content for us to turn away their citizens but they won't feel like doing the same?
Since no one has said we would or should kick out any EU citizen already living in the UK, you are just continuing with the tradiitnal Europhile trick of making stuff up and hoping to scare people. You really are a quite despicable little man.
I'm sorry Richard, but that's just wrong.
First, we will make EU citizens living in the UK wear badges with a bunch of stars on them. Secondly, we'll require them to live in South Kensington. Thirdly, we'll round them up and put them in camps.
Oh wait... is that not the script?
Wrong.
They will be conscripted to aid TSE in finally completing his magnum opus AV thread.
Why is May saying it is the "basis of a deal". Isn't this the deal?
No - negotiations to continue. For example the duration an emergency brake lasts just had an X in its place in the draft memo. But Cameron once again negotiating badly by already defending this version and saying its got everything he wanted in it.
Chris A..Total nonsense..and scaremongering..why do you post such rubbish ..Why would two million people be kicked out of Europe if we vote to leave..it is worse than the ridiculous statement that 3 million jobs would go in the UK..a few pieces if verifiable info would not go amiss..plonker..
So you think the EU would be quite content for us to turn away their citizens but they won't feel like doing the same?
Since no one has said we would or should kick out any EU citizen already living in the UK, you are just continuing with the tradiitnal Europhile trick of making stuff up and hoping to scare people. You really are a quite despicable little man.
I'm sorry Richard, but that's just wrong.
First, we will make EU citizens living in the UK wear badges with a bunch of stars on them. Secondly, we'll require them to live in South Kensington. Thirdly, we'll round them up and put them in camps.
Oh wait... is that not the script?
Wrong.
They will be conscripted to aid TSE in finally completing his magnum opus AV thread.
Chris A..Total nonsense..and scaremongering..why do you post such rubbish ..Why would two million people be kicked out of Europe if we vote to leave..it is worse than the ridiculous statement that 3 million jobs would go in the UK..a few pieces if verifiable info would not go amiss..plonker..
So you think the EU would be quite content for us to turn away their citizens but they won't feel like doing the same?
Since no one has said we would or should kick out any EU citizen already living in the UK, you are just continuing with the tradiitnal Europhile trick of making stuff up and hoping to scare people. You really are a quite despicable little man.
I'm sorry Richard, but that's just wrong.
First, we will make EU citizens living in the UK wear badges with a bunch of stars on them. Secondly, we'll require them to live in South Kensington. Thirdly, we'll round them up and put them in camps.
Oh wait... is that not the script?
Wrong.
They will be conscripted to aid TSE in finally completing his magnum opus AV thread.
Why is May saying it is the "basis of a deal". Isn't this the deal?
No - negotiations to continue. For example the duration an emergency brake lasts just had an X in its place in the draft memo. But Cameron once again negotiating badly by already defending this version and saying its got everything he wanted in it.
Interesting to hear on C4 news this evening that Grayling asked in Cabinet this morning if Eurosceptics were now free to campaign to Leave and was told no because negotiations are not finished. Cameron really isn't missing any opportunity to stitch this up.
Why is May saying it is the "basis of a deal". Isn't this the deal?
No - negotiations to continue. For example the duration an emergency brake lasts just had an X in its place in the draft memo. But Cameron once again negotiating badly by already defending this version and saying its got everything he wanted in it.
I'm at a complete loss to understand the PMs position here. He's an intelligent and experienced politician yet he has failed negotiation 101 with this deal.
Remainers (not sure who would best Osborne here now)
Cameron (obviously) Osborne (ditto) Boris (belatedly) May (probably) Gove (loyalty) Hammond (bottled) Morgan McLoughlin Letwin Rudd Hunt (loyalty) Crabb Clark Letwin Soubry Hands Hancock Halfon
I'm looking at those actively leaning Leave - or otherwise keeping their noses clean - at cabinet level.
So, of the leavers, any of the following could still do it and be the Tory Leave leader:
Fox (84/1 Netbet and a few quid at 80/1 Betfair) Patel (50/1 Corals) Villiers (150/1 Skybet or 260/1 on Betfair)
I reckon it'll be Fox or Patel.
Of those keeping their noses clean, with talent, I like these but they won't declare for Leave:
Justine Greening (220/1 Betfair or 66/1 Bet365) Liz Truss (50/1 Skybet or 90/1 Betfair)
I have savers on these:
Michael Fallon (200/1 as Next PM or 40/1 with Hills) Owen Paterson (40/1 Skybet) Chris Grayling (125/1 Skybet) Javid (on licence) - 10/1 Ladbrokes
It won't be Whittingdale or IDS. Oh, and I managed to get a ridiculous 1,000/1 on Jesse Norman.
Don't think it will be Fox. Patel has a lot of potential. But think she needs to reach out to the moderate mainstream on non-Euro issues.
Someone that supports Leave, doesn't come across as hard right winger, and has charisma/is telegenic would walk it, IMHO. Boris could be that but I don't think he has balls to take the risk.
@tnewtondunn · 7m7 minutes ago Breaking: Theresa May says draft EU agreement is the "basis for a deal". A big intervention, clearest sign yet she will campaign for Remain.
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Right, so UKIP aren't going to respect the referendum result. Nice of you to let us know that in advance.
If there's a vote for Remain, then UKIP will still campaign to Leave, in the same way the SNP still campaign for independence.
But a
If the public don't care, why are having this referendum?
40 years ago, young people were overwhelmingly in favour. The same age cohort thinks differently today.
We're having it to keep the Tory party together.
The way senior Tories are currently acting is likely to do anything but keep the Tory party together. The rank and file will feel a sense of betrayal if c. 50% of them aren't represented and that will tell, particularly if this "deal" goes south. Which it will.
The boundary changes and candidate selections will be a blood bath.
I wonder if there's a coup in the offing with the Feldman review into the Conservative Party. Members were supposed to be asked for their views. But, IIRC, I wasn't.
It wouldn't surprise me if many members were stripped of their power to do selections of candidates and, if they could get away with it, of their power to choose the leader in the final vote.
It might explain why all cabinet members are now big fearties.
Why is May saying it is the "basis of a deal". Isn't this the deal?
No - negotiations to continue. For example the duration an emergency brake lasts just had an X in its place in the draft memo. But Cameron once again negotiating badly by already defending this version and saying its got everything he wanted in it.
I'm at a complete loss to understand the PMs position here. He's an intelligent and experienced politician yet he has failed negotiation 101 with this deal.
Only if you believe he really ever wanted anything substantive out of it. Otherwise it has gone exactly as he wanted.
Interesting to hear on C4 news this evening that Grayling asked in Cabinet this morning if Eurosceptics were now free to campaign to Leave and was told no because negotiations are not finished. Cameron really isn't missing any opportunity to stitch this up.
Incidentally I really feel for you all who have Theresa May next leader slips. Today must be like a personal betrayal.
Yes, all the evidence (for me) pointed towards her declaring for Leave. Even as recently as her statement last night; the pressure on the PM that the deal wasn't good enough, her lunch with Fox, her constant counsel and her awkwardness when asked about it. I have no idea what's in it for her in declaring for Remain. Maybe she doesn't want to lose her power base of Home Secretary to Boris in what she may feel is a lost cause.
She seems to have lost the opportunity of creating her own major support group in the party. At a stroke getting probably 50%+ to her side. Strange as one of her ex advisors is in the LEAVE camp. Unless she goes for out at the end of the negotiation.
That's why I'm wondering why she said it was the "basis of a deal". Sounds like a get out clause (if you pardon the pun).
It might be. She has surprised many times (at party conference, at the police confederation and Gary McKinnon) but I think on balance she's probably Remain now.
I wouldn't be sure until the fat lady sings, though.
Why is May saying it is the "basis of a deal". Isn't this the deal?
No - negotiations to continue. For example the duration an emergency brake lasts just had an X in its place in the draft memo. But Cameron once again negotiating badly by already defending this version and saying its got everything he wanted in it.
I'm at a complete loss to understand the PMs position here. He's an intelligent and experienced politician yet he has failed negotiation 101 with this deal.
Only if you believe he really ever wanted anything substantive out of it. Otherwise it has gone exactly as he wanted.
Obviously he will have wanted things that looked substantive, at the very least. Obviously I am biased on this one, but it doesn't at first glance look that substantive, or at least not as substantive as it could be. It is definitely trickier to sell than some deals would have been.
I think May sort of coming out for Remain is a bit of a kick in the nads for the Leave campaign. They really do need some heavy weights to step up now.
The key thing you need to understand is that the vast majority of normal people (that is, those that don't post on here!) don't really have a clue about what the EU is all about. Sure, the "Ever Closer Union" thing does get a fair few people riled, me included, but most don't really worry about the minutiae of Europe. What they do see is immigration. Migrants massing at the borders, like a scene from the The Walking Dead does get traction. Merkel opening up Germany has been noticed. I hear far more people complaining about immigration now than I used to, whether it's the builder complaining about shoddy Polish workmanship that he's got to make good, or the gang of migrants hanging around one of the many newly opened Eastern Europe/Mid Eastern late night mini markets in our nearest town. Like it or not, most people don't think of the financial policies of the EU as the problem, they see immigration as the biggest EU issue.
Absolutely. Which is why Cameron has moved so quickly to a referendum. He knows a summer of zombie-refugees literally eating border guards in Dover won't look too good.
That;s the one astute move he has made today. All else is dreck and diversion.
His obvious need for a quick deal may be the reason why he didn't get much. It's a rather glaring weakness in his negotiating position.
You can have X -That's not good enough OK, let's talk about it for a year and see what we can come up with -I need agreement now You can have X
Incidentally I really feel for you all who have Theresa May next leader slips. Today must be like a personal betrayal.
Yes, all the evidence (for me) pointed towards her declaring for Leave. Even as recently as her statement last night; the pressure on the PM that the deal wasn't good enough, her lunch with Fox, her constant counsel and her awkwardness when asked about it. I have no idea what's in it for her in declaring for Remain. Maybe she doesn't want to lose her power base of Home Secretary to Boris in what she may feel is a lost cause.
She seems to have lost the opportunity of creating her own major support group in the party. At a stroke getting probably 50%+ to her side. Strange as one of her ex advisors is in the LEAVE camp. Unless she goes for out at the end of the negotiation.
That's why I'm wondering why she said it was the "basis of a deal". Sounds like a get out clause (if you pardon the pun).
It might be. She has surprised many times (at party conference, at the police confederation and Gary McKinnon) but I think on balance she's probably Remain now.
I wouldn't be sure until the fat lady sings, though.
Sounds to me like she's bottling it at final moment if you ask me.
Why is May saying it is the "basis of a deal". Isn't this the deal?
No - negotiations to continue. For example the duration an emergency brake lasts just had an X in its place in the draft memo. But Cameron once again negotiating badly by already defending this version and saying its got everything he wanted in it.
I'm at a complete loss to understand the PMs position here. He's an intelligent and experienced politician yet he has failed negotiation 101 with this deal.
Only if you believe he really ever wanted anything substantive out of it. Otherwise it has gone exactly as he wanted.
Obviously he will have wanted things that looked substantive, at the very least. Obviously I am biased on this one, but it doesn't at first glance look that substantive, or at least not as substantive as it could be. It is definitely trickier to sell than some deals would have been.
I think there is saleability to the public and saleability to the Conservative Party. Different things.
Why is May saying it is the "basis of a deal". Isn't this the deal?
No - negotiations to continue. For example the duration an emergency brake lasts just had an X in its place in the draft memo. But Cameron once again negotiating badly by already defending this version and saying its got everything he wanted in it.
I'm at a complete loss to understand the PMs position here. He's an intelligent and experienced politician yet he has failed negotiation 101 with this deal.
Only if you believe he really ever wanted anything substantive out of it. Otherwise it has gone exactly as he wanted.
But even if he wanted it to go nowhere, he should have come back with something that makes him seem strong and that he won concessions from his opponents. The deal he got makes him look weak and that he couldn't get them to give any ground at all.
All this will surely help the Leave side, unless the rabbit is to come out of the hat in a couple of weeks' time. I've now moved to 95% Leave (from 75% last week and 50% six months ago). I just don't see why we should shackle ourselves to the rotting corpse when there's a big world out there.
I think May sort of coming out for Remain is a bit of a kick in the nads for the Leave campaign. They really do need some heavy weights to step up now.
Hannan is the man for me. I appreciate he is only widely known to us anoraks, but that means he is not burdened with the 'can't stand that bloke/woman' as May or Farage would be.
Also a bloke campaigning to lose his own job must be viewed as honest!
The key thing you need to understand is that the vast majority of normal people (that is, those that don't post on here!) don't really have a clue about what the EU is all about. Sure, the "Ever Closer Union" thing does get a fair few people riled, me included, but most don't really worry about the minutiae of Europe. What they do see is immigration. Migrants massing at the borders, like a scene from the The Walking Dead does get traction. Merkel opening up Germany has been noticed. I hear far more people complaining about immigration now than I used to, whether it's the builder complaining about shoddy Polish workmanship that he's got to make good, or the gang of migrants hanging around one of the many newly opened Eastern Europe/Mid Eastern late night mini markets in our nearest town. Like it or not, most people don't think of the financial policies of the EU as the problem, they see immigration as the biggest EU issue.
Absolutely. Which is why Cameron has moved so quickly to a referendum. He knows a summer of zombie-refugees literally eating border guards in Dover won't look too good.
That;s the one astute move he has made today. All else is dreck and diversion.
His obvious need for a quick deal may be the reason why he didn't get much. It's a rather glaring weakness in his negotiating position.
You can have X -That's not good enough OK, let's talk about it for a year and see what we can come up with -I need agreement now You can have X
Yes, that seems probable. I suppose after last summers' crises, he felt sentiment is only going to get worse, and best get something and present it now, rather than go for something bigger which is ignored because perception is turning against Remain for other reasons.
I actually don't condemn him for any of his tactics, although I would have preferred going for broke really.
Our brilliant negotiator will now try to arrange the Referendum to maximise REMain's chances of success - but there is an uncontrollable hazard in the European context: events. I presume even the BBC would be reluctant not to report on events in Greeece - say a financial blow-out, riots in Athens, or unabated flows of migrants.
The one thing you can bet your house on is that come the Friday morning when we've voted 2 to 1 (again) to remain, the Tory Euro loons will still be "banging on about Europe".
Nothing wrong with that - free speech and so on. But those Cabinet members who have sat on the fence better not be among them. Having said that I look forward a couple of years to when they start saying 'well, we thought Dave had got a good deal, but now looking at it again...' Pathetic.
Yes there is. We've had the last 25 years of the Tories banging on about Europe and saying that the people need a choice. Give the people a choice and they still won't be satisfied. We've already seen people on here getting their excuses ready this evening.
The people have a right to never be satisfied. Their consent must be continuously sought in elections. I know it upsets people of all political stripes who don't like the public's views, but that's democracy.
I'd be quite content just to have elections, the fad for referendums on every issue under the sun is tiresome.
I'd quite like an election too.
Tory majority of 46 would be very helpful in defeating the Docs, cementing boundary changes and invigorating the economy through tax cuts.
And day, after day, after day of Corbyn et al would deliver it.
Why is May saying it is the "basis of a deal". Isn't this the deal?
No - negotiations to continue. For example the duration an emergency brake lasts just had an X in its place in the draft memo. But Cameron once again negotiating badly by already defending this version and saying its got everything he wanted in it.
I'm at a complete loss to understand the PMs position here. He's an intelligent and experienced politician yet he has failed negotiation 101 with this deal.
Only if you believe he really ever wanted anything substantive out of it. Otherwise it has gone exactly as he wanted.
But even if he wanted it to go nowhere, he should have come back with something that makes him seem strong and that he won concessions from his opponents. The deal he got makes him look weak and that he couldn't get them to give any ground at all.
All this will surely help the Leave side, unless the rabbit is to come out of the hat in a couple of weeks' time. I've now moved to 95% Leave (from 75% last week and 50% six months ago). I just don't see why we should shackle ourselves to the rotting corpse when there's a big world out there.
Yes that's about where I am. Can't see me voting to stay barring an incredible and implausible late late rabbit.
I think the impending possibility of migrants night after night on TV through the Summer has driven Cameron's timetable rather than any attempt to use the nearly two years he still had to seriously build pressure on the EU. The deal is crap pure and simple. Cameron has dropped the ball here.
The red card is reasonable What would be unreasonable is if one government elected by 37 per cent of nine per cent of the EU could tell the rest what it couldn't do In or out, and in means in and out means out!
What's not reasonable is for the Eurozone to pass whatever it wants without checks. Soon Eurozone will be its own superstate, and will be able to dictate to all other EU members the way things are.
And all that Cameron has achieved, on that front, is that when we feel the City or the UK is suffering from discriminatory, pro-eurozone legislation, we can now have the issue "escalated", so it is more "widely discussed". That's it. The eurozone can still pass the law. We have no real leverage. Nothing. He has spent a year negotiating precisely nothing.
It's not just a bad deal, it's a bizarrely bad deal.
Cameron must know this, which makes his lies all the more unpalatable.
And on stopping migrant benefits he has won the right to ask again in future, but only on a temporary basis. No opt out of closer union, nothing new on competitiveness, no stop on child benefit going abroad, no opt out of working time directive, no treaty change. I expected failures on some of these but not across the board like this.
Quite. Nothing on CAP, CFP, the EU budget or returning sovereignty either. The PM has got nothing but words from the EU, there's no substance to it and no reason the whole thing won't get put in the small round filing cabinet on the floor the next time a crisis demands it.
I've been a huge Cameron fan for 10 years now, this is the first time he's really messed up since he became PM.
I've belatedly realised that I'm no longer a Conservative, based on the idea that the Cabinet are (seemingly) all in favour of this non-deal. I don't like Farage, so...hmm.
Did anyone see the U-19 cricket world cup match between Zimbabwe v west indies and how it finished,very unsporting by the Windies ;-)
Never understood why running out the non-striker is unsporting. A run is meant to be 22 yards, not 21 and surely it's the batting side which is being unsporting.
In this instance it doesn't look from the image like they were trying to steal a run or anything, just dragged his bad just outside, more mistimed his stroll as the bowler would approach. A warning would have been nice, but it's not a law, so of course it happens.
Like Chris I don't understand the controversy. The batsman was out of his ground and the ball in play.
I have gone back into Republican Nominee market and laid Rubio for all my profit on the market.
I do not think NH is the place for him and his price has been driven by a third place. Just imagine explaining today on the betting markets to somoene "Cruz won Iowa so naturally Rubio is now odds on favourite". Bonkers.
Rubio will likely come a good second to Trump in New Hampshire. More interesting is where Cruz is.
Second in 1 out of 2 NH polls today and 1 behind Rubio in the other and Cruz won Iowa, Rubio came third, who gets more momentum?
Is there a betting opportunity in next cabinet minister to leave cabinet? If someone like Grayling resigned over speaking out about this deal now it would help the leave narrative about this deal a lot.
I think May sort of coming out for Remain is a bit of a kick in the nads for the Leave campaign. They really do need some heavy weights to step up now.
Hannan is the man for me. I appreciate he is only widely known to us anoraks, but that means he is not burdened with the 'can't stand that bloke/woman' as May or Farage would be.
Also a bloke campaigning to lose his own job must be viewed as honest!
John Redwood is miles better than Hannan in arguing the case for OUT. Hannan has been frothing too much and lacking sensible arguments.
Former GOP Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown to endorse Trump in New Hampshire tonight
'Former Massachusetts senator Scott P. Brown, a moderate Republican who two years ago ran for Senate in New Hampshire, will endorse Donald Trump at rally here Tuesday night, one week before the state’s presidential primary. Brown’s decision has been closely guarded for days, but it was confirmed by two people familiar with the event, where Brown will appear onstage with the candidate. Brown’s move could give Trump a significant boost, one day after the mogul lost the Iowa caucuses to Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas. Although Brown was defeated in his senatorial bid here, he has been popular GOP figure in New England ever since his stunning, come-from-behind victory in Massachusetts’s special election to fill the Senate seat in 2010. Brown is also a favorite of many establishment Republicans due to his centrist positions, including support for abortion rights and for a ban on assault weapons. His profile and personality, however, are blue collar and populist.' https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/02/02/scott-brown-to-endorse-trump/
I think May sort of coming out for Remain is a bit of a kick in the nads for the Leave campaign. They really do need some heavy weights to step up now.
Hannan is the man for me. I appreciate he is only widely known to us anoraks, but that means he is not burdened with the 'can't stand that bloke/woman' as May or Farage would be.
Also a bloke campaigning to lose his own job must be viewed as honest!
If Leave are looking for someone not Farage to lead the debates, Hannan is the man. He is a very good speaker and debater and knows the arguments inside out. He has an internationalist approach of wanting free trade and encouraging small businesses and will attack the EU as an institution while loving Europe as a place and its people. He is also as you say arguing to make himself redundant.
Against that of course is that he is to 99% of the electorate a complete unknown. His famous takedown of Gordon Brown was seven years ago now.
I think May sort of coming out for Remain is a bit of a kick in the nads for the Leave campaign. They really do need some heavy weights to step up now.
Yes, for all the predictable huffing on here about Dave's negotiating skills, it doesn't alter the fact that Leave are an incoherent shambles and almost certain to let this slip through their fingers. I suspect that's why so many Cabinet members are keeping below the parapet - they know the current Leave brigade is going to lose and don't want to be tainted with failure. Better to come out in a few years when the EU is imploding and the sceptics have found some gumption and credibility. Shame, because now would have been the better time for withdrawal.
Did anyone see the U-19 cricket world cup match between Zimbabwe v west indies and how it finished,very unsporting by the Windies ;-)
Never understood why running out the non-striker is unsporting. A run is meant to be 22 yards, not 21 and surely it's the batting side which is being unsporting.
In this instance it doesn't look from the image like they were trying to steal a run or anything, just dragged his bad just outside, more mistimed his stroll as the bowler would approach. A warning would have been nice, but it's not a law, so of course it happens.
Like Chris I don't understand the controversy. The batsman was out of his ground and the ball in play.
Issues of sportsmanship are rarely to do with if an actual rule is broken - there'd be no controversy if that was the case. Clearly there is a disagreement among fans over whether it should be a rule that the batsman can be runout that way, and the halfway acknowledgement of that - the idea someone should be warned once before someone attempts to mankad them - is unsatisfactory, as at the end of the day you are demanding people need to do more than follow the rules, which is nice but not actually fair to expect of people.
They should either make it against the rules to run out that way (without a warning first or whatever) or publicly look at the issue and reaffirm the existing position after assessment, so no one can complain.
Quite. Nothing on CAP, CFP, the EU budget or returning sovereignty either. The PM has got nothing but words from the EU, there's no substance to it and no reason the whole thing won't get put in the small round filing cabinet on the floor the next time a crisis demands it.
I've been a huge Cameron fan for 10 years now, this is the first time he's really messed up since he became PM.
I've belatedly realised that I'm no longer a Conservative, based on the idea that the Cabinet are (seemingly) all in favour of this non-deal. I don't like Farage, so...hmm.
The current Cabinet are not the sole bearers of the Conservative, er, flame? Hannan has remained a Conservative after all.
The red card is reasonable What would be unreasonable is if one government elected by 37 per cent of nine per cent of the EU could tell the rest what it couldn't do In or out, and in means in and out means out!
What's not reasonable is for the Eurozone to pass whatever it wants without checks. Soon Eurozone will be its own superstate, and will be able to dictate to all other EU members the way things are.
And all that Cameron has achieved, on that front, is that when we feel the City or the UK is suffering from discriminatory, pro-eurozone legislation, we can now have the issue "escalated", so it is more "widely discussed". That's it. The eurozone can still pass the law. We have no real leverage. Nothing. He has spent a year negotiating precisely nothing.
It's not just a bad deal, it's a bizarrely bad deal.
Cameron must know this, which makes his lies all the more unpalatable.
And on stopping migrant benefits he has won the right to ask again in future, but only on a temporary basis. No opt out of closer union, nothing new on competitiveness, no stop on child benefit going abroad, no opt out of working time directive, no treaty change. I expected failures on some of these but not across the board like this.
Quite. Nothing on CAP, CFP, the EU budget or returning sovereignty either. The PM has got nothing but words from the EU, there's no substance to it and no reason the whole thing won't get put in the small round filing cabinet on the floor the next time a crisis demands it.
I've been a huge Cameron fan for 10 years now, this is the first time he's really messed up since he became PM.
I've belatedly realised that I'm no longer a Conservative, based on the idea that the Cabinet are (seemingly) all in favour of this non-deal. I don't like Farage, so...hmm.
You are a Conservative, like millions of grassroot voters and members who think as you and I do.
Don't be put off by the group-think of the shameless careerists in the cabinet.
I think May sort of coming out for Remain is a bit of a kick in the nads for the Leave campaign. They really do need some heavy weights to step up now.
Hannan is the man for me. I appreciate he is only widely known to us anoraks, but that means he is not burdened with the 'can't stand that bloke/woman' as May or Farage would be.
Also a bloke campaigning to lose his own job must be viewed as honest!
John Redwood is miles better than Hannan in arguing the case for OUT. Hannan has been frothing too much and lacking sensible arguments.
Redwood is not exactly floating voter friendly though is he? And that's probably being charitable.
I think May sort of coming out for Remain is a bit of a kick in the nads for the Leave campaign. They really do need some heavy weights to step up now.
Hannan is the man for me. I appreciate he is only widely known to us anoraks, but that means he is not burdened with the 'can't stand that bloke/woman' as May or Farage would be.
Also a bloke campaigning to lose his own job must be viewed as honest!
John Redwood is miles better than Hannan in arguing the case for OUT. Hannan has been frothing too much and lacking sensible arguments.
Agreed but he comes across as Christopher Lee playing Dracula
The red card is reasonable What would be unreasonable is if one government elected by 37 per cent of nine per cent of the EU could tell the rest what it couldn't do In or out, and in means in and out means out!
What's not reasonable is for the Eurozone to pass whatever it wants without checks. Soon Eurozone will be its own superstate, and will be able to dictate to all other EU members the way things are.
And all that Cameron has achieved, on that front, is that when we feel the City or the UK is suffering from discriminatory, pro-eurozone legislation, we can now have the issue "escalated", so it is more "widely discussed". That's it. The eurozone can still pass the law. We have no real leverage. Nothing. He has spent a year negotiating precisely nothing.
It's not just a bad deal, it's a bizarrely bad deal.
Cameron must know this, which makes his lies all the more unpalatable.
And on stopping migrant benefits he has won the right to ask again in future, but only on a temporary basis. No opt out of closer union, nothing new on competitiveness, no stop on child benefit going abroad, no opt out of working time directive, no treaty change. I expected failures on some of these but not across the board like this.
Quite. Nothing on CAP, CFP, the EU budget or returning sovereignty either. The PM has got nothing but words from the EU, there's no substance to it and no reason the whole thing won't get put in the small round filing cabinet on the floor the next time a crisis demands it.
I've been a huge Cameron fan for 10 years now, this is the first time he's really messed up since he became PM.
I've belatedly realised that I'm no longer a Conservative, based on the idea that the Cabinet are (seemingly) all in favour of this non-deal. I don't like Farage, so...hmm.
I realised I was no longer a Conservative three or four years ago.
I think May sort of coming out for Remain is a bit of a kick in the nads for the Leave campaign. They really do need some heavy weights to step up now.
Hannan is the man for me. I appreciate he is only widely known to us anoraks, but that means he is not burdened with the 'can't stand that bloke/woman' as May or Farage would be.
Also a bloke campaigning to lose his own job must be viewed as honest!
If Leave are looking for someone not Farage to lead the debates, Hannan is the man. He is a very good speaker and debater and knows the arguments inside out. He has an internationalist approach of wanting free trade and encouraging small businesses and will attack the EU as an institution while loving Europe as a place and its people.
Hannan has unfortunately made one big mistake by attacking the national religion, the NHS. Otherwise I would agree with you.
I think May sort of coming out for Remain is a bit of a kick in the nads for the Leave campaign. They really do need some heavy weights to step up now.
Hannan is the man for me. I appreciate he is only widely known to us anoraks, but that means he is not burdened with the 'can't stand that bloke/woman' as May or Farage would be.
Also a bloke campaigning to lose his own job must be viewed as honest!
If Leave are looking for someone not Farage to lead the debates, Hannan is the man. He is a very good speaker and debater and knows the arguments inside out. He has an internationalist approach of wanting free trade and encouraging small businesses and will attack the EU as an institution while loving Europe as a place and its people.
Anyone but Farage, he was horrible in the debates.
The red card is reasonable What would be unreasonable is if one government elected by 37 per cent of nine per cent of the EU could tell the rest what it couldn't do In or out, and in means in and out means out!
What's not reasonable is for the Eurozone to pass whatever it wants without checks. Soon Eurozone will be its own superstate, and will be able to dictate to all other EU members the way things are.
And all that Cameron has achieved, on that front, is that when we feel the City or the UK is suffering from discriminatory, pro-eurozone legislation, we can now have the issue "escalated", so it is more "widely discussed". That's it. The eurozone can still pass the law. We have no real leverage. Nothing. He has spent a year negotiating precisely nothing.
It's not just a bad deal, it's a bizarrely bad deal.
Cameron must know this, which makes his lies all the more unpalatable.
And on stopping migrant benefits he has won the right to ask again in future, but only on a temporary basis. No opt out of closer union, nothing new on competitiveness, no stop on child benefit going abroad, no opt out of working time directive, no treaty change. I expected failures on some of these but not across the board like this.
Quite. Nothing on CAP, CFP, the EU budget or returning sovereignty either. The PM has got nothing but words from the EU, there's no substance to it and no reason the whole thing won't get put in the small round filing cabinet on the floor the next time a crisis demands it.
I've been a huge Cameron fan for 10 years now, this is the first time he's really messed up since he became PM.
I've belatedly realised that I'm no longer a Conservative, based on the idea that the Cabinet are (seemingly) all in favour of this non-deal. I don't like Farage, so...hmm.
You are a Conservative, like millions of grassroot voters and members who think as you and I do.
Don't be put off by the group-think of the shameless careerists in the cabinet.
Again, why do you assume they are shameless careerists? Maybe they just were never as eurosceptic as you thought or indeed they may have presented? That would be wrong of them, if they gave indications they might consider they other side, but they may still be voting with ther consciences on this one, rather than against them.
I think May sort of coming out for Remain is a bit of a kick in the nads for the Leave campaign. They really do need some heavy weights to step up now.
Hannan is the man for me. I appreciate he is only widely known to us anoraks, but that means he is not burdened with the 'can't stand that bloke/woman' as May or Farage would be.
Also a bloke campaigning to lose his own job must be viewed as honest!
John Redwood is miles better than Hannan in arguing the case for OUT. Hannan has been frothing too much and lacking sensible arguments.
Neither of them is able to make the emotional argument which will be what will matter in the campaign. Scoring debating points doesn't win many votes.
I think May sort of coming out for Remain is a bit of a kick in the nads for the Leave campaign. They really do need some heavy weights to step up now.
Hannan is the man for me. I appreciate he is only widely known to us anoraks, but that means he is not burdened with the 'can't stand that bloke/woman' as May or Farage would be.
Also a bloke campaigning to lose his own job must be viewed as honest!
John Redwood is miles better than Hannan in arguing the case for OUT. Hannan has been frothing too much and lacking sensible arguments.
John Redwood connects with voters in the same way a zombie connects with a corpse.
Remainers (not sure who would best Osborne here now)
Cameron (obviously) Osborne (ditto) Boris (belatedly) May (probably) Gove (loyalty) Hammond (bottled) Morgan McLoughlin Letwin Rudd Hunt (loyalty) Crabb Clark Letwin Soubry Hands Hancock Halfon
I'm looking at those actively leaning Leave - or otherwise keeping their noses clean - at cabinet level.
So, of the leavers, any of the following could still do it and be the Tory Leave leader:
Fox (84/1 Netbet and a few quid at 80/1 Betfair) Patel (50/1 Corals) Villiers (150/1 Skybet or 260/1 on Betfair)
I reckon it'll be Fox or Patel.
Of those keeping their noses clean, with talent, I like these but they won't declare for Leave:
Justine Greening (220/1 Betfair or 66/1 Bet365) Liz Truss (50/1 Skybet or 90/1 Betfair)
I have savers on these:
Michael Fallon (200/1 as Next PM or 40/1 with Hills) Owen Paterson (40/1 Skybet) Chris Grayling (125/1 Skybet) Javid (on licence) - 10/1 Ladbrokes
It won't be Whittingdale or IDS. Oh, and I managed to get a ridiculous 1,000/1 on Jesse Norman.
Don't think it will be Fox. Patel has a lot of potential. But think she needs to reach out to the moderate mainstream on non-Euro issues.
Someone that supports Leave, doesn't come across as hard right winger, and has charisma/is telegenic would walk it, IMHO. Boris could be that but I don't think he has balls to take the risk.
I agree, an open door for a telegenic eurosceptic who could command support from 100 MPs.
A few hundred at Calais pales in comparison to hundreds of thousands coming every year under EU free movement. I don't care about migration particularly but to pretend EU is irrelevent here is just disingenuous.
And they leave again. What will you do with the 2 million who get kicked out of their homes in the rest of the EU?
The day 2 million British expats are forcibly removed from their homes is the day 3 million jobs are lost. Sell a positive vision of the EU instead of resorting to lies and scaremongering.
Fear Uncertainty Doubt
These are the things (and I know I'm a stuck record on this issue) that Leave needs to inspire in people. If they can equal Remain in Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt, they will effectively neutralise that argument, leaving demotivation on both sides, leaving who has the most fervour to win on turn out.
Why is May saying it is the "basis of a deal". Isn't this the deal?
No - negotiations to continue. For example the duration an emergency brake lasts just had an X in its place in the draft memo. But Cameron once again negotiating badly by already defending this version and saying its got everything he wanted in it.
I'm at a complete loss to understand the PMs position here. He's an intelligent and experienced politician yet he has failed negotiation 101 with this deal.
Only if you believe he really ever wanted anything substantive out of it. Otherwise it has gone exactly as he wanted.
i agree with others that he CLEARLY wanted something substantive. Who wouldn't. If he could have repatriated the CFP, CAP, social and employment law, and gotten us out of the ECHR, and - by the by - doubled the rebate, demolished Strasbourg, and made English the only permissible language in EU institutions, he would happily have taken it. He's not a traitor or a cretin.
The problem is that he's folded, and taken terrible terms, for various reasons - I'd say his own clubbability, dislike of rancour, and belief that we have a OK-ish deal as is, and most of all his fear of losing a referendum after months of summer migrant madness. Others think he's jsut a crap negotiator.
Either way we are being invited to eat a bowl of ordure, and to smile as we do it.
The ECHR is a separate issue, in that we could make it subservient to UK law without even discussing it with the EU or our neighbours. The concerns some had about it affecting us by the back door, by the EU becoming a member, have been put to bed by the ECHR turning down the EU's request. I would hope that - irrespective of the results of the referendum - that we introduce a British Bill of Rights that does exactly that.
The red card is reasonable What would be unreasonable is if one government elected by 37 per cent of nine per cent of the EU could tell the rest what it couldn't do In or out, and in means in and out means out!
W.
A
It's not just a bad deal, it's a bizarrely bad deal.
Cameron must know this, which makes his lies all the more unpalatable.
A
Q
I've been a huge Cameron fan for 10 years now, this is the first time he's really messed up since he became PM.
I've belatedly realised that I'm no longer a Conservative, based on the idea that the Cabinet are (seemingly) all in favour of this non-deal. I don't like Farage, so...hmm.
You are a Conservative, like millions of grassroot voters and members who think as you and I do.
Don't be put off by the group-think of the shameless careerists in the cabinet.
Again, why do you assume they are shameless careerists? Maybe they just were never as eurosceptic as you thought or indeed they may have presented? That would be wrong of them, if they gave indications they might consider they other side, but they may still be voting with ther consciences on this one, rather than against them.
It's your second question that proves the first.
The confessions that several talked the talked to get past the selection committees in opposition, then the highly EU-sceptic noises and flirtations of 2013, 2014 and 2015, but, now, some mind-blowing feats of rationalisation saying the EU will fall anyway in a few years so it's silly to vote Leave now, which seems to coincide entirely with those whose careers are most bound up with Osborne.
And today we have several enthusiastically endorsing a terrible deal as a success.
Steven Kinnock on Sky now praising Cameron for "ticking all the boxes". I guess his old man really needs that EU pension....
It's stuff like this - and from Alan Johnson - that will make the backbenches and grassroots go ape-shit.
Who gives a flying fig what the grass roots and backbenchers feel about it? Colonel Bludgeon-Smythe's rising blood pressure ain't gonna win the argument. As for Alan Johnson - the man's an affable moderate who fought his way up from the council estate. What he says will gain more traction with Joe Public than Redwood from his tomb.
Leave could do worse than someone like David Starkey. He would capture the tell-it-like-it-is zeitgeist and has something of Trump's talent for delivering calculated shocks that can reframe the debate.
I think May sort of coming out for Remain is a bit of a kick in the nads for the Leave campaign. They really do need some heavy weights to step up now.
Hannan is the man for me. I appreciate he is only widely known to us anoraks, but that means he is not burdened with the 'can't stand that bloke/woman' as May or Farage would be.
Also a bloke campaigning to lose his own job must be viewed as honest!
John Redwood is miles better than Hannan in arguing the case for OUT. Hannan has been frothing too much and lacking sensible arguments.
Neither of them is able to make the emotional argument which will be what will matter in the campaign. Scoring debating points doesn't win many votes.
Agree,that's why I had hope for Theresa may was that person but isam's michael portillo leading the out cause would also be a good selection.
Just hope if the person comes forward,All the out movement gets behind that person.
Beeb website "most read" news EU referendum 10th.behind, amongst others: STD Zika transmission in Texas at 1, campsite singles ban at 3, music shop owner found dead in car boot in Birmigham at 9.
I think I've cracked it - the EU despises changing the status quo more than anything, right? They put off everything they can, and react viciously against anyone who forces them to actually try to take actual decisions on changing things, as that is bloody hard for so many nations.
So what is the current status quo? Overall moves toward ever increasing union, with Britain In but moaning in dissatisfaction, thus providing an easy scapegoat for the EU leaders (it seems to be the case that Britain is reacted to as though it is the only one with any concerns - we hear all the time the others are 'fed up' with our holding them back - when in fact others, though a minority, often do if not as strongly as us), and conveniently meaning they don't have to prove their mantra that the solution to everything is more Europe, as we won't let them.
So to maintain that status quo, too good a deal for Britain would make us too happy, and undermine the sense of inexorability of the EU project. No deal at all and Britain out is unacceptable because it harms the project in many ways, as well as removing that easy scapegoat.
So you have a deal that seems pretty crappy even for a negotiated european settlement, but enough to get Britain to Remain, while being unhappy and still moaning. Status quo maintained.
Of course I don't actually believe that, but it almost makes sense.
I think May sort of coming out for Remain is a bit of a kick in the nads for the Leave campaign. They really do need some heavy weights to step up now.
Hannan is the man for me. I appreciate he is only widely known to us anoraks, but that means he is not burdened with the 'can't stand that bloke/woman' as May or Farage would be.
Also a bloke campaigning to lose his own job must be viewed as honest!
If Leave are looking for someone not Farage to lead the debates, Hannan is the man. He is a very good speaker and debater and knows the arguments inside out. He has an internationalist approach of wanting free trade and encouraging small businesses and will attack the EU as an institution while loving Europe as a place and its people.
Anyone but Farage, he was horrible in the debates.
Farage has his place and his demographic of loyal followers, which is all fine. But the debate will need to appeal to the undecided. Both sides need to remember that.
Hannan presents a positive case for the UK as one of the most successful countries in the world and more than able to stand on its own two feet, which is what the undecided will need to hear.
I think May sort of coming out for Remain is a bit of a kick in the nads for the Leave campaign. They really do need some heavy weights to step up now.
Hannan is the man for me. I appreciate he is only widely known to us anoraks, but that means he is not burdened with the 'can't stand that bloke/woman' as May or Farage would be.
Also a bloke campaigning to lose his own job must be viewed as honest!
John Redwood is miles better than Hannan in arguing the case for OUT. Hannan has been frothing too much and lacking sensible arguments.
Neither of them is able to make the emotional argument which will be what will matter in the campaign. Scoring debating points doesn't win many votes.
Agree,that's why I had hope for Theresa may was that person but isam's michael portillo leading the out cause would also be a good selection.
Just hope if the person comes forward,All the out movement gets behind that person.
I agree. Also, one of the joys about Portillo is that he is anything but frothing. If anything, he's too cerebral these days. Nevertheless, he's articulate, intelligent, and loves Europe (the continent, not the EU).
You can tell the devs are Merkins. As you progress you level up through military ranks, finishing at Field Marshall, then First Lord of the Admiralty. The next rank after that is *drumroll* ..... Member of Parliament. Hmmm.
Well the PM's deal is unravelling pretty fast - he admits it won't cut immigration and EU supporters are quickly saying the case for remain doesn't rest on the deal at all.
But the PM himself can't take that position, can he? Otherwise he would be saying his whole renegotiation was pointless. He has put himself in a very awkward spot.
The red card is reasonable What would be unreasonable is if one government elected by 37 per cent of nine per cent of the EU could tell the rest what it couldn't do In or out, and in means in and out means out!
W.
A
It's not just a bad deal, it's a bizarrely bad deal.
Cameron must know this, which makes his lies all the more unpalatable.
A
Q
I've been a huge Cameron fan for 10 years now, this is the first time he's really messed up since he became PM.
I've belatedly realised that I'm no longer a Conservative, based on the idea that the Cabinet are (seemingly) all in favour of this non-deal. I don't like Farage, so...hmm.
You are a Conservative, like millions of grassroot voters and members who think as you and I do.
Don't be put off by the group-think of the shameless careerists in the cabinet.
Again, why do you assume they are shameless careerists? Maybe they just were never as eurosceptic as you thought or indeed they may have presented? That would be wrong of them, if they gave indications they might consider they other side, but they may still be voting with ther consciences on this one, rather than against them.
It's your second question that proves the first.
Yes, but in the opposite direction. The assumption seems to be that there are these die hard Eurosceptics who are bottling up their true thoughts and voting to remain because they are gutless. The truth may be they were always likely remainders who toyed with Leave because they feared not appearing to be eurosceptic.
Still gutless, if that is the case, but given Cameron is going to be standing down as PM in the coming years anyway and there is potential gain to be had in being a leading light of Leave, I'm inclined to think they are being true to themselves now, rather than cowed at the last minute.
Trump is a sort of court jester, saying lateral things, a useful function, and making people think, but lacking finesse. Lordy, lordy, It looks as if Iowans may have more sense that some thought.
p/s would Trump & Boris annihilate if stuck in a elevator?
Leave could do worse than someone like David Starkey. He would capture the tell-it-like-it-is zeitgeist and has something of Trump's talent for delivering calculated shocks.
If we are going with starkey who would proberly frighten half the electorate,why not jacob rees-mogg ;-)
Leave could do worse than someone like David Starkey. He would capture the tell-it-like-it-is zeitgeist and has something of Trump's talent for delivering calculated shocks.
If we are going with starkey who would proberly frighten half the electorate,why not jacob rees-mogg ;-)
Slightly unfair on the basis of one rather unusual election to generalise on polling and Trump to be honest. I think we are beginning to see some explanations of what happened in IA on the GOP side and plaudits to Cruz whose ground and data gathering game were clearly superior. Given his conservative credentials, this should perhaps have come as less of a surprise but I remain to be convinced he will be anything other than an also-ran in NH.
As for the EU referendum, if you take the view the whole purpose of the exercise was to keep the Conservative Party together, Cameron's done fairly well. If you think it was to have a serious debate about Britain's future relationship with Europe, Cameron hasn't done so well.
Trump is a sort of court jester, saying lateral things, a useful function, and making people think, but lacking finesse. Lordy, lordy, It looks as if Iowans may have more sense that some thought.
Steven Kinnock on Sky now praising Cameron for "ticking all the boxes". I guess his old man really needs that EU pension....
It's stuff like this - and from Alan Johnson - that will make the backbenches and grassroots go ape-shit.
Who gives a flying fig what the grass roots and backbenchers feel about it? Colonel Bludgeon-Smythe's rising blood pressure ain't gonna win the argument. As for Alan Johnson - the man's an affable moderate who fought his way up from the council estate. What he says will gain more traction with Joe Public than Redwood from his tomb.
The problem Johnson has is he knows very little about the EU. He instead regurgitates stock pro-EU messages which would not hold up to even the most basic of questioning.
I think this is where the other Johnson, Boris, would fail as the face of the Leave campaign. He has not given me any reason to think he could withstand serious scrutiny. Yes, he may be charismatic and popular but he would be out of his depth.
Instead Leave may be better off using a selection of decent candidates from across the political spectrum and also individuals outside of politics. This way the campaign will not look like a Tory campaign or a UKIP campaign.
Why is May saying it is the "basis of a deal". Isn't this the deal?
No - negotiations to continue. For example the duration an emergency brake lasts just had an X in its place in the draft memo. But Cameron once again negotiating badly by already defending this version and saying its got everything he wanted in it.
I'm at a complete loss to understand the PMs position here. He's an intelligent and experienced politician yet he has failed negotiation 101 with this deal.
Only if you believe he really ever wanted anything substantive out of it. Otherwise it has gone exactly as he wanted.
i agree with others that he CLEARLY wanted something substantive. Who wouldn't.
Sorry, I can't accept this. Any vigorous defender of Britain's interest would have got several miles down the road already, without any negotiation. They would have raised merry hell over EU laws they didn't like, rather than quietly signing them into British law with no references to the EU. They could have already got these 'negotiating points' covered years ago and be on to the next thing. We probably wouldn't even need a referendum with someone like that as PM.
Treachery is an unhelpful word, I think Cameron and Osborne simply understand 'the system' and are working within it to their own benefit. Be an anti-establishment rebel, and you will face all sorts of brickbats, ranging from whispering campaigns and low level harassment, through blackmail, to, in extremis, a nasty car accident or heart attack. (tinfoil comments taken as read, please don't bother)
Steven Kinnock on Sky now praising Cameron for "ticking all the boxes". I guess his old man really needs that EU pension....
It's stuff like this - and from Alan Johnson - that will make the backbenches and grassroots go ape-shit.
Who gives a flying fig what the grass roots and backbenchers feel about it? Colonel Bludgeon-Smythe's rising blood pressure ain't gonna win the argument. As for Alan Johnson - the man's an affable moderate who fought his way up from the council estate. What he says will gain more traction with Joe Public than Redwood from his tomb.
The problem Johnson has is he knows very little about the EU. He instead regurgitates stock pro-EU messages which would not hold up to even the most basic of questioning.
I think this is where the other Johnson, Boris, would fail as the face of the Leave campaign. He has not given me any reason to think he could withstand serious scrutiny. Yes, he may be charismatic and popular but he would be out of his depth.
Instead Leave may be better off using a selection of decent candidates from across the political spectrum and also individuals outside of politics. This way the campaign will not look like a Tory campaign or a UKIP campaign.
An early referendum might be to the advantage of someone who would struggle to stand up to scrutiny. MIght get lucky and get through it on charisma and bluster.
Comments
And they leave again. What will you do with the 2 million who get kicked out of their homes in the rest of the EU?'
'I'll sell that at a pound per eviction in the event of leave.'
Clegg will be along in a minute to tell us about the 3 million jobs we will lose with BREXIT, the same 3 million we were going to lose if we didn't join the €uro
First, we will make EU citizens living in the UK wear badges with a bunch of stars on them.
Secondly, we'll require them to live in South Kensington.
Thirdly, we'll round them up and put them in camps.
Oh wait... is that not the script?
They will be conscripted to aid TSE in finally completing his magnum opus AV thread.
Migrants massing at the borders, like a scene from the The Walking Dead does get traction. Merkel opening up Germany has been noticed. I hear far more people complaining about immigration now than I used to, whether it's the builder complaining about shoddy Polish workmanship that he's got to make good, or the gang of migrants hanging around one of the many newly opened Eastern Europe/Mid Eastern late night mini markets in our nearest town.
Like it or not, most people don't think of the financial policies of the EU as the problem, they see immigration as the biggest EU issue.
Remainers (not sure who would best Osborne here now)
Cameron (obviously)
Osborne (ditto)
Boris (belatedly)
May (probably)
Gove (loyalty)
Hammond (bottled)
Morgan
McLoughlin
Letwin
Rudd
Hunt (loyalty)
Crabb
Clark
Letwin
Soubry
Hands
Hancock
Halfon
I'm looking at those actively leaning Leave - or otherwise keeping their noses clean - at cabinet level.
So, of the leavers, any of the following could still do it and be the Tory Leave leader:
Fox (84/1 Netbet and a few quid at 80/1 Betfair)
Patel (50/1 Corals)
Villiers (150/1 Skybet or 260/1 on Betfair)
I reckon it'll be Fox or Patel.
Of those keeping their noses clean, with talent, I like these but they won't declare for Leave:
Justine Greening (220/1 Betfair or 66/1 Bet365)
Liz Truss (50/1 Skybet or 90/1 Betfair)
I have savers on these:
Michael Fallon (200/1 as Next PM or 40/1 with Hills)
Owen Paterson (40/1 Skybet)
Chris Grayling (125/1 Skybet)
Javid (on licence) - 10/1 Ladbrokes
It won't be Whittingdale or IDS. Oh, and I managed to get a ridiculous 1,000/1 on Jesse Norman.
Someone that supports Leave, doesn't come across as hard right winger, and has charisma/is telegenic would walk it, IMHO. Boris could be that but I don't think he has balls to take the risk.
It wouldn't surprise me if many members were stripped of their power to do selections of candidates and, if they could get away with it, of their power to choose the leader in the final vote.
It might explain why all cabinet members are now big fearties.
If that happens, I'm quitting.
I wouldn't be sure until the fat lady sings, though.
The Leave organisations must stop their squabbles immediately and get on with fighting this squalid 'deal'.
You can have X
-That's not good enough
OK, let's talk about it for a year and see what we can come up with
-I need agreement now
You can have X
It served that objective well.
All this will surely help the Leave side, unless the rabbit is to come out of the hat in a couple of weeks' time. I've now moved to 95% Leave (from 75% last week and 50% six months ago). I just don't see why we should shackle ourselves to the rotting corpse when there's a big world out there.
Also a bloke campaigning to lose his own job must be viewed as honest!
I actually don't condemn him for any of his tactics, although I would have preferred going for broke really.
Tory majority of 46 would be very helpful in defeating the Docs, cementing boundary changes and invigorating the economy through tax cuts.
And day, after day, after day of Corbyn et al would deliver it.
I think the impending possibility of migrants night after night on TV through the Summer has driven Cameron's timetable rather than any attempt to use the nearly two years he still had to seriously build pressure on the EU. The deal is crap pure and simple. Cameron has dropped the ball here.
http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR130/filters/LIKELY_PRIMARY15:1,PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20160101-20160202/type/smallest
'Former Massachusetts senator Scott P. Brown, a moderate Republican who two years ago ran for Senate in New Hampshire, will endorse Donald Trump at rally here Tuesday night, one week before the state’s presidential primary.
Brown’s decision has been closely guarded for days, but it was confirmed by two people familiar with the event, where Brown will appear onstage with the candidate.
Brown’s move could give Trump a significant boost, one day after the mogul lost the Iowa caucuses to Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas. Although Brown was defeated in his senatorial bid here, he has been popular GOP figure in New England ever since his stunning, come-from-behind victory in Massachusetts’s special election to fill the Senate seat in 2010.
Brown is also a favorite of many establishment Republicans due to his centrist positions, including support for abortion rights and for a ban on assault weapons. His profile and personality, however, are blue collar and populist.'
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/02/02/scott-brown-to-endorse-trump/
Against that of course is that he is to 99% of the electorate a complete unknown. His famous takedown of Gordon Brown was seven years ago now.
There is a story that Hillarys personal email server issue is about to look a lot worse shortly.
They should either make it against the rules to run out that way (without a warning first or whatever) or publicly look at the issue and reaffirm the existing position after assessment, so no one can complain.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/35470796
Don't be put off by the group-think of the shameless careerists in the cabinet.
Does. Not. Make. Sense.
Unbelievable value.
The confessions that several talked the talked to get past the selection committees in opposition, then the highly EU-sceptic noises and flirtations of 2013, 2014 and 2015, but, now, some mind-blowing feats of rationalisation saying the EU will fall anyway in a few years so it's silly to vote Leave now, which seems to coincide entirely with those whose careers are most bound up with Osborne.
And today we have several enthusiastically endorsing a terrible deal as a success.
Just hope if the person comes forward,All the out movement gets behind that person.
Hmm
So what is the current status quo? Overall moves toward ever increasing union, with Britain In but moaning in dissatisfaction, thus providing an easy scapegoat for the EU leaders (it seems to be the case that Britain is reacted to as though it is the only one with any concerns - we hear all the time the others are 'fed up' with our holding them back - when in fact others, though a minority, often do if not as strongly as us), and conveniently meaning they don't have to prove their mantra that the solution to everything is more Europe, as we won't let them.
So to maintain that status quo, too good a deal for Britain would make us too happy, and undermine the sense of inexorability of the EU project. No deal at all and Britain out is unacceptable because it harms the project in many ways, as well as removing that easy scapegoat.
So you have a deal that seems pretty crappy even for a negotiated european settlement, but enough to get Britain to Remain, while being unhappy and still moaning. Status quo maintained.
Of course I don't actually believe that, but it almost makes sense.
Hannan presents a positive case for the UK as one of the most successful countries in the world and more than able to stand on its own two feet, which is what the undecided will need to hear.
But the PM himself can't take that position, can he? Otherwise he would be saying his whole renegotiation was pointless. He has put himself in a very awkward spot.
Still gutless, if that is the case, but given Cameron is going to be standing down as PM in the coming years anyway and there is potential gain to be had in being a leading light of Leave, I'm inclined to think they are being true to themselves now, rather than cowed at the last minute.
Lordy, lordy, It looks as if Iowans may have more sense that some thought.
p/s would Trump & Boris annihilate if stuck in a elevator?
Slightly unfair on the basis of one rather unusual election to generalise on polling and Trump to be honest. I think we are beginning to see some explanations of what happened in IA on the GOP side and plaudits to Cruz whose ground and data gathering game were clearly superior. Given his conservative credentials, this should perhaps have come as less of a surprise but I remain to be convinced he will be anything other than an also-ran in NH.
As for the EU referendum, if you take the view the whole purpose of the exercise was to keep the Conservative Party together, Cameron's done fairly well. If you think it was to have a serious debate about Britain's future relationship with Europe, Cameron hasn't done so well.
I think this is where the other Johnson, Boris, would fail as the face of the Leave campaign. He has not given me any reason to think he could withstand serious scrutiny. Yes, he may be charismatic and popular but he would be out of his depth.
Instead Leave may be better off using a selection of decent candidates from across the political spectrum and also individuals outside of politics. This way the campaign will not look like a Tory campaign or a UKIP campaign.
Treachery is an unhelpful word, I think Cameron and Osborne simply understand 'the system' and are working within it to their own benefit. Be an anti-establishment rebel, and you will face all sorts of brickbats, ranging from whispering campaigns and low level harassment, through blackmail, to, in extremis, a nasty car accident or heart attack. (tinfoil comments taken as read, please don't bother)