Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As well as a unique hair-style Trump has another thing in c
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As well as a unique hair-style Trump has another thing in common with Boris – being overstated in the polls
One of the things that I’ve written about before here is that Boris gets over-stated by the polls when tested against real election results. It happened to quite a degree at the last London mayoral election and we saw a similar pattern overnight in the results from Iowa.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush announced that he was dropping out of the race for the Republican Presidential nomination, while standing in front of a “Mission Accomplished” banner draped over the façade of his campaign headquarters, in Miami.
Speaking to his remaining staff members who were seated in a dozen folding chairs, Bush thanked them for the hard work that led to the triumphant completion of their mission.
“Our work is done,” Bush said. “Thanks to you, we have prevailed.”
Breaking: Theresa May says draft EU agreement is the "basis for a deal". A big intervention, clearest sign yet she will campaign for Remain.
This is important and for me unexpected. David Cameron might not be much cop at negotiating with the EU but he knows how to do it with Cabinet colleagues.
Having said that, NH has its own wrinkle which is that independents can vote in either the Dem or GOP primaries, but not both. Figuring out which they think is more important can't be easy for pollsters.
SeanT
This is why it is important for the Tories to elect a sceptic leader after Cameron.
Cameron will take the blame for REMAIN winning, and go down as a new kind of Blair, with Tories queuing up to loathe him as the EU laughs at us. But he's quitting anyway, to spend more time with his DVD collection, so he won't care.
But the next Tory leader will need to be untainted by REMAIN, or they could suffer badly.
I think that's probably true. Cameron has a lot to recommend him, and much of what he has aimed for should probably be followed by whoever comes after him, but the europe issue will clearly, despite the hopes of some Tories, remain toxic for the party if they do remain. Being stuck in but with someone who cannot be accused of kowtowing to the EU, fairly or otherwise, will surely be needed to keep party members happy.
This, rather than the deal being provisionally unveiled today, may be the point where Leave lost.
I'm still struggling with your criticism on the last thread. I advocated EFTA/EEA membership, and then you listed a bunch of countries, in which EFTA/EEA ones were massively over-represented (in that all three were on the list).
How are you not agreeing with me?
Priti Patel could be worth a punt for leader. Her voting record is dubious when it comes to the EU so could see her backing remain as well.
Maybe the deal she wants will not materialise, but her comments are way way short of all the newspaper headlines which claimed to know what was going on in her head.
Does this not make the penny drop for the phobing hysterics?
I agree it's a blow
Michael Portillo this is your time to shine!
Speaking of, I've not really be online much today, but has the Corbyn/McDonnell/Abbott/Livingstone collective weighed in? On Europe Labour have a chance to sit back and let the Tories tear into each other, and I wonder if they are taking that advice.
My wife is away for a week, and therefore I plan to eat unhealthily... Which reminds, me I've opened a staggeringly good bottle of wine downstairs that I need to pour a glass from...
Does anyone know if this is true?
And blown her leadership chances too.
Ouch.
Scottish Labour displayed similar arrogance. That worked out well for them.
If it is for remain, then why after all these years of sensibly building a consensus with the voters should the membership tear all that up? Why swim against the stream and divide your party in the process. Would they think the Corbynites have a point?
I don't speak for UKIP.
Supremacy of EU courts was never on the table: it's an essential aspect of the EU and to opt out of the ECJ is tantamount to opting out of the EU. If you don't want ECJ decisions to be binding, just be honest and say you're for Leave on grounds of sovereignty.
Human Rights legislation is a red herring. It's a consequence of membership of the Council of Europe, not the EU - and is directly applicable in UK because of a UK law. Yes, the EU is also subject to Human Rights law so there is an element of a back door but nearly every hoo-ha relating to Europe and human rights is to do with the ECHR.
Cameron never mentioned either the CAP or CFP during his Bloomberg speech so they too seem to be on your made-up wishlist.
If you want to have a go at him for objectives not delivered, go back to the original 2013 speech and compare the deal against that - it's not as if you won't have a case. But to set up a straw man undermines your own argument.
I'd reckon Remain will win fairly clearly this year, and then lose fairly clearly in 2022. (If the EU falls apart, we probably won't need another referendum.)
From a betting perspective, we discussed the referendum result, next PM and Tory leader markets, and date of Dave and George leaving office. But what about the next to leave to leave the Cabinet market? Is it probable that someone will wish to call out the PM on his negotiation and move to the back benches to do so. If someone has the balls to do that, it would make them favourite to lead the Leave campaign and shortening odds to be next PM. The question is, who would do it..?
On leaving, quite honestly I'm not sure what the PM could have offered to address my concerns, which are more rooted in dislike for the institution and bureaucracy and how they seem like they will only exacerbate the parts I dislike over time, so I will not pretend that if only Cameron had gotten X I would have been on board, but it is an underwhelming start, unless he has a rabbit to pull out of his hat.
If Remain wins, there will be nearly four years before the next election, plenty of time for more important subjects than the EU to take precedence in the public's voting intention. Nigel Farage is as popular as Jeremy Corbyn in the most recent Mori poll.
I'm willing to consider a bet on the subject if you're tempted.
Meantime back closer to home, where its Corbyn who is mulling over who to appoint as ambassador to ISIS. Where does the real danger lie?
Reminds me of this video, believed to be the only time 10 heads in a row has been filmed in a single shot.
youtu.be/XzYLHOX50Bc
Now fast forward to the 2010's
The Cold War government information apparatus is long gone, the big beast consensus is absent, the print media is vehemently anti-EU, Euroscepticism is common amongst the public. The weapons available to the REMAIN side are absent and the numbers small. The weapons available to the LEAVE side are large - a vicious press, an agreeable commentariat, an engaged public - and it looks like a slam dunk for LEAVE.
As I said to SeanT some while ago: when did REMAIN last win an argument or a battle?
UKIP are more likely to have zero MPs next time than they are to sweep all before them like the SNP did.
Will reassess my book later and repost.
Hmmmnnnnn.
A couple of polls next week showing a move towards Leave might actually help the PM get a better deal at the conference.
I wonder if Dave will put a powerful mate up for leave to make it look a bit fairer.
Someone big has to do it, or they going to leave it to the likes of Hannan and Bone, people that the average Joe doesn't know?
There will also be a reckoning for the spineless senior Tories who buckled and backed Remain at the last minute.
To be a fair comparison we would need the British government to be backing Leave.
If its too one sided people will start to suspect something. And Britain loves an underdog.
Sell Hillary for next POTUS. She's still at evens, for someone who might not even be the Democratic nominee, and who would be slaughtered by Rubio and would probably lose to Trump. Sell her all the way out to 2.4. (I admit a small interest in this market.)
Buy Trump for POTUS. He's at almost 10, for someone who is a 50% shot for the nomination, and would probably beat Hillary. Buy him into 6s.
Ted Cruz is too expensive for the Republican nomination, I'd still be selling him. (Albeit I hate laying people at relatively long odds.) He's simply got to pull out a strong second in South Carolina to stay in the race, and I think he'll drift to third. And third is death. He should be 10 to 11 in my view.
It is staggering that Sanders is almost the same chance as Trump for the Presidency. And, after New Hampshire, he will lose almost every state. Even if he got the nomination, he would lose to... pretty much any Republican, including Cruz. Continue to sell him.
Elections are not just battles of ideas. Opinions can be swayed, questions can be framed to elicit the correct response, the other side can be mocked, money can be deployed to change minds. People do not spend all day thinking on these matters so fashion and opinionmakers can be deployed to make person X vote in way Y. REMAIN are poorly equipped in this regard and although the various LEAVE campaigns are lacking/contradictory, a hostile press has easily stepped in to deploy good old British journalism in the....familiar manner. My question ("when did REMAIN last win an argument or a battle?") illustrates this.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35473743
I'll just continue to be baffled by people's willingness to hitch this country to a walking corpse.
If you back Leave you probably think they haven't.
How do you give an objective answer?