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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Meanwhile away from UKIP runners declare themselves in 3 political races and an 8/1 tip from Damian McBride
Yvette Cooper and Andy Burnham announce Labour leadership bids http://t.co/ALs3cTkRak pic.twitter.com/n9AaIwBqJC
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EuRef is his Achilles heel because what McBride says is absolutely true, he wont get anything, he knows he wont get anything, his back benchers know he wont get anything, and he will get into some silly dance about trying to dress up nothing as a big deal.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11444950/Ed-Milibands-paranoia-stops-him-working-with-shadow-cabinet-colleagues-Damian-McBride-says.html
@PickardJE: Arron Banks: "Carswell got 25,000 votes but Nigel got 4m. Nigel got 99.6% of the votes to Carswell’s 0.4%." http://t.co/Wb2GpRYg0m
Lord Coe to have a rethink over the IAAF job (Or lose to Bubka) and Goldsmith next please !
Arron Banks: "Carswell got 25,000 votes but Nigel got 4m. Nigel got 99.6% of the votes to Carswell’s 0.4%." http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b76e454e-fa06-11e4-b432-00144feab7de.html?siteedition=uk#axzz3ZgHEjB3y …
Will we see the dead soon?
On the second point, I think this is probably right, both for the reason you give, and because new leaders get a honeymoon boost. If Labour go for Yvette or Andy, by 2020 they will be led by someone who has been around for donkey's years. Less so for the other current main candidates, of course, but even so the novelty will have worn off, as it had for Cameron by 2010. Parties would in general be well advised to switch leaders later after an election defeat than they tend to do.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2708868/Ed-Miliband-extraordinary-attack-Gordon-Brown-s-key-aide-warns-Labour-election-plan-totally-dysfunctional.html
"Mr McBride concludes: ‘Labour currently has no clear idea who its target audience is, no positive messages to communicate to anyone about why they should vote for the party, no policies which will persuade them, and is being run in a totally dysfunctional way.’"
James Chapman (Mail) @jameschappers 23s23 seconds ago
Prof John Curtice: if @theSNP vote holds up, Lab must be 12% ahead in Eng & Wales to win majority - and that's before boundary changes #wato
If the figures quoted is correct - Labour have a big problem on their hands. Well done Ed, built on Gordon Brown's legacy, undermined the party's chances for a decade.
I'll lay £20 at 8-1 for any reputable PBer that wants the bet.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000948
Unlike Labour, I don't think LDs need a major policy-position rethink - beyond a few Tories they're the only liberal voice in parliament. A couple of big, bold, liberal ideas - e.g. recreational dug decriminalisation - could help rally the cause though.
The Kippers.
In last week's episode Nigel Kipper died, but it was all a dream and he's back! Nigel's immediately started fighting for control of the family firm with his brother Douglas Kipper, and their cousin Patrick O'Kipper has decided to soothe tensions, sorry I mean fuel the fire, by giving his two-penneth. Meanwhile Old Man Wheeler's woken up, and we wait to see if this weeks episode brings the return of long-lost Robert Kilroy-Kipper.
https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/598778664533282816
Wait, it's meant to be serious? Oh. That's even funnier.
Burnham is the obvious choice - quite telegenic, regional accent, experienced... but on reflection, I'm leaning Hunt-ward. A new, (relatively) untainted and eloquent voice.
So much for the frontman - the policies need to follow...
Risk is hard to understand and very hard to teach (it's pretty much what I do). Even harder for the public to understanding is knowledge - what do and what can we know. Many people believe they understand from statistics far more than they actually can possibly know.
On epistemology, I like the work of Andy Sterling at Brighton, and the sections of Nasim Taleb's book Black Swan that deal with analyzing past data - how each set of data can support whole families of internally consistent explanations, but how you cannot know which is the correct one.
Nate Silver has always been pretty up front that he is not a political pundit, but a number cruncher pure and simple. If the input numbers are wrong, his analysis will be. I have always cautioned against taking his word as gospel, because inevitably at some unknowable points the numbers will be wrong.
Bizarre, but not as unusual as you'd think. My organizational behaviour prof at INSEAD wrote a very entertaining book on this phenomenon, "Unstable at the Top" (Manfred Kets de Vries), which catalogues powerful innovators who built empires doomed to collapse, or at least undergo major ructions, upon their departure.
https://books.google.com/books/about/Unstable_at_the_top.html?id=X_TsAAAAMAAJ&hl=en
You're right on Farron; he doesn't have Lamb's intellectual hinterland - but right now the base needs to be re-enthused and expanded.
If the former then it's literally that he he falls under a bus, if the latter then I guess it could only be that he offers an early referendum on EU and messes it up.
In fact, no one in labour does. Why doesn't come as put forward at least one bold new policy?
If someone say (for example), we will nationalise all the railways at least they were saying something new. Instead of 'mumble, mumble aspiration, mumble mumble reaching out'
Is Labour really that devoid of idea? Even if they are crap ones?
@politicshome: Ukip MEP Jonathan Arnott on Ukip chaos: "This is nothing new. What’s different..is it’s s/thing national newspapers are interested in" #wato
https://twitter.com/britishfuture/status/491272695691378688
Not someone that will go to a 2020 election them self but will develop the younger talent in the party and choose a successor in late 2018 or early 2019, after the party has decided what it stands for.
Hattie or the Postman could do it, who else has sufficient respect among the whole party? Nominations don't close until August, so it could be done at the last minute.
Not so different now boys, eh.
Edit: On that i am actually suprised Ed just vanished straight away, of course his days were numbered, but he could have stayed to sort out some of the fallout.
Can't see it now that everyone has declared. In any case Labour need a proper barney of a leadership contest.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=-z3mBIi084Q#t=49
On that basis presumably it's even more OK to steal from the state?
Either she does, or she's unelectable (by the country). If she's unwilling to do so, perhaps she should retire.
Labour had four legs to its stool:
- Scots
- ethnic minorities
- Guardianista
- WWC
Labour should pick a new leader most likely to maximise these. The Scots are gone in FPTP elections, maybe for good. The Guardianista lot seem pretty loyal - though a few may be flirting with the Greens, their numbers will have been boosted by red LDs. The ethnic minorities are amazingly loyal, except in special cases, and their share of the vote is growing. The WWC are in danger of going to UKIP. So Labour need to pick a leader most likely to appeal to the English and Welsh WWC. And one who will put in place the right policies in areas that are important to them, above all housing, immigration and the economy.
And to win over the floating voter they need a leader who is seen as more competent than the Tories. Floating voters are mostly, almost by definition, non-ideological, and will back a competent bastard over an incompetent nice guy. That needs the Conservatives to mess up on the economy as well.
Not sure which one of the leadership candidates has those qualities, but it is fairly obvious which ones (e.g. Hunt) don't.
But its a reasonable idea, it usually takes a year or two for new leader to lose sheen/shininess/energy. One reason why the SNP have done so well with Sturgeon, she's still new in the job.
any labour leader will, like Ed have had 5 years in the job, and thats not always a good thing.
They need to take some serious time out to look at who they are as a party, and what they stand for. They also need anyone who was close to Blair and Brown well out of the way if they're to appeal to the wider population in advance of the election.
Meanwhile this process would furnish the Tories with a whole load of quotes to throw at them in the GE, like the Balls-Miliband non-dom fiasco.