Clough (who may be the closest footballing analogue to Farage, though not politically of course) oversaw a fair amount of mediocrity at Forest toward the end, and really should've gone sooner. Forest have averaged over a manager a year since he went, with only Frank Clark bringing real success (3rd in the Premier League, believe it or not). however, Mourinho-less Chelsea still managed to win plenty without him.
On Spurs/Redknapp - yes he got them in 4th, but that was before City got a megabucks team assembled and 4th place was up for grabs (see also Moyes/Everton) - now the top 4 are basically a cartel with the odd occasional incursion, whihc makes it much harder for Spurs under any manager to break in.
Err, Spurs finished fourth in 2009-10 - which was the second season of City having megabucks. Spurs also finished fourth in 2011-12, but Chelsea (who finished sixth) won the Champions League. And Redknapp was sacked for not getting Spurs into the Champions League.
The only predictions worth taking any notice of whatsoever are where someone does the opposite - ie predicting their own party will lose etc.
Like Bob Sykes!
Harsh! The Herd have had a whip-round and bought Bob a new strap-on spine....
He's all better now.
I assumed the polls over the last couple of years were right. That's all!
I wasn't the only one....
And I'm a bit pissed off with the pollsters too. I had a pretty sound record on here and they've made me look a bit stupid for being taken in. I also offended JackW (although I still think it was flukish good luck rather than judgement), and besmirched a PM who in little over a fortnight transformed himself from a chillaxing essay-crisiser to a triumphant man of people enjoying possibly the most spectacular election triumph since Atlee's.
Bob, Some of us did try and warn you but our admonitions went hilariously unheeded. And bad person that I am, the schadenfreude at your discomfort was delicious.
In my experience, successful betting is as much about correctly judging your stake sizes as it is about winning bets.
Excellently put. A cardinal rule of betting, in fact - along with 'never bet more than you can afford to lose', 'follow the value' and 'don't get high on your own supply' (or something).
My problem is my winning stakes are never big enough, and my losing stakes are too big
The Westminster bubble is making yet another mistake IMO which is being obsessed with ridiculing UKIP when they've just won 3.8 million votes.
Why is that a mistake? Do you think 3.8 million is something special?
The Lib Dems got 6.8 million in 2010 and the Westminster bubble has been ridiculing them for the last five years.
Ridicule would have been laughing at the Lib Dems believing that they could achieve 8% of the vote and hang on to 30 seats. I just wish I'd had the courage of my convictions and sold them on SPIN.
The prime minister has appointed former adviser Andrew Dunlop to be the new junior minister at the Scotland Office. Mr Dunlop was an adviser to David Cameron during the independence referendum. He was also working with Conservative Party HQ when the poll tax was introduced under Margaret Thatcher. Mr Dunlop has been given a peerage and will sit in the Lords. The SNP described his appointment and the peerage as "scandalous".
Oh dear me. Tories at 14 per cent and going down. Revive the Party by enobling the genius behind the Poll Tax! Ruth Davidson must be tearing her hair out!
14.9% actually!
Plus 1.6% for the Kippers makes 16.5%!
Easily the lowest % vote for the Right in any of the Home Nations!
Clough (who may be the closest footballing analogue to Farage, though not politically of course) oversaw a fair amount of mediocrity at Forest toward the end, and really should've gone sooner. Forest have averaged over a manager a year since he went, with only Frank Clark bringing real success (3rd in the Premier League, believe it or not). however, Mourinho-less Chelsea still managed to win plenty without him.
On Spurs/Redknapp - yes he got them in 4th, but that was before City got a megabucks team assembled and 4th place was up for grabs (see also Moyes/Everton) - now the top 4 are basically a cartel with the odd occasional incursion, whihc makes it much harder for Spurs under any manager to break in.
Err, Spurs finished fourth in 2009-10 - which was the second season of City having megabucks. Spurs also finished fourth in 2011-12, but Chelsea (who finished sixth) won the Champions League. And Redknapp was sacked for not getting Spurs into the Champions League.
There seems like there is an awful lot of people on here who are incapable of reading between the lines due to their near obsessional loyaly to their respective parties.
O'Flynn's main issue was with Farage's advisers. They are both gone. They have provided terrible advice and have paid the price.
I would like to see someone else lead UKIP, preferably Steven Woolfe.
The prime minister has appointed former adviser Andrew Dunlop to be the new junior minister at the Scotland Office. Mr Dunlop was an adviser to David Cameron during the independence referendum. He was also working with Conservative Party HQ when the poll tax was introduced under Margaret Thatcher. Mr Dunlop has been given a peerage and will sit in the Lords. The SNP described his appointment and the peerage as "scandalous".
Oh dear me. Tories at 14 per cent and going down. Revive the Party by enobling the genius behind the Poll Tax! Ruth Davidson must be tearing her hair out!
What is scandalous about this particular appointment? I'm sure lot of people worked at CCHQ in 1989.
Bit like appointing Boris Minister of State for Children and Families. Tbf appropriate apointments for anything in Scotland is problematic for the Tories; let it be henceforth known as the Mundell conundrum.
The prime minister has appointed former adviser Andrew Dunlop to be the new junior minister at the Scotland Office. Mr Dunlop was an adviser to David Cameron during the independence referendum. He was also working with Conservative Party HQ when the poll tax was introduced under Margaret Thatcher. Mr Dunlop has been given a peerage and will sit in the Lords. The SNP described his appointment and the peerage as "scandalous".
Oh dear me. Tories at 14 per cent and going down. Revive the Party by enobling the genius behind the Poll Tax! Ruth Davidson must be tearing her hair out!
What is scandalous about this particular appointment? I'm sure lot of people worked at CCHQ in 1989.
Bit like appointing Boris Minister of State for Children and Families. Tbf appropriate apointments for anything in Scotland is problematic for the Tories; let it be henceforth known as the Mundell conundrum.
Is this appointment more or less appropriate than sending bigots and republican sympathisers to represent Scotland at Westminster ?
Dr. Spyn, a recent review of The Witcher 3 [out next week] by Polygon apparently attacked it for lack of black characters (it's based on a world created by a Polish writer, which is largely Slavic in nature).
It's possible to find fault with anything if you want to.
People sometimes criticise Lord of the Rings for the lack of female characters.
I don't think anyone will suspect me of being sympathetic to UKIP, but the gloatasm here at their expense is a bit tedious to plough through.
And while the opposition parties (ex SNP) enter months and even years of disarray George Osborne powers the northern economies and the government implements it's manifesto without looking over it's shoulder. George Osborne gets this right he will be a shoe in to succeed DC
Dear Scotlass, he was not the 'genius behind the poll tax' A lot of people in CPHQ at the time. Someone on here the other day pointed out that Scotland requested the implementation first, to avoid revaluation. I suspect the SNP will have regular outbursts of outrage, not least since on this first occasion they have set the bar pathetically low. They need to put their Short Money to better use.
The only predictions worth taking any notice of whatsoever are where someone does the opposite - ie predicting their own party will lose etc.
Like Bob Sykes!
Harsh! The Herd have had a whip-round and bought Bob a new strap-on spine....
He's all better now.
I assumed the polls over the last couple of years were right. That's all!
I wasn't the only one....
And I'm a bit pissed off with the pollsters too. I had a pretty sound record on here and they've made me look a bit stupid for being taken in. I also offended JackW (although I still think it was flukish good luck rather than judgement), and besmirched a PM who in little over a fortnight transformed himself from a chillaxing essay-crisiser to a triumphant man of people enjoying possibly the most spectacular election triumph since Atlee's.
A lot of us have had to eat humble pie this week. It's tastier when it's warm, I find.
Banks has called on Douglas Carswell, Suzanne Evans and Patrick O’Flynn, the three main figures who do not want Farage to remain as leader, to be thrown out of the party.
Dear Scotlass, he was not the 'genius behind the poll tax' A lot of people in CPHQ at the time. Someone on here the other day pointed out that Scotland requested the implementation first, to avoid revaluation. I suspect the SNP will have regular outbursts of outrage, not least since on this first occasion they have set the bar pathetically low. They need to put their Short Money to better use.
You mean a thick Tory bampot asked for Scotland to be pummeled first. I do not remember the public begging for the poll tax you numpty.
Lets hope Ko Barclay is able to bring his father round to supporting an OUT vote:
It is a shame that during the election that the EU issue took a back seat - it clearly wasn't on the forefront of voters minds. The power of the political union is the most insidious threat that Britain is facing in modern times, because it is not an obvious threat - the liberty of the country and it's people is at stake from Brussels' bureaucrats who want to impose their own version of laws on us without our consent.
"The EU debate will be a divisive issue for the Conservative party in the coming months leading up to the proposed referendum. I do not believe that there are enough EU sceptics within the Conservative party to ensure that we get a good chance of exiting the EU.
"Nigel Farage passionately believes in the anti-EU cause and this is an issue which needs clear and unwavering leadership. There is little doubt that he is the best man for the job."
Banks has called on Douglas Carswell, Suzanne Evans and Patrick O’Flynn, the three main figures who do not want Farage to remain as leader, to be thrown out of the party.
In my experience, successful betting is as much about correctly judging your stake sizes as it is about winning bets.
Excellently put. A cardinal rule of betting, in fact - along with 'never bet more than you can afford to lose', 'follow the value' and 'don't get high on your own supply' (or something).
My problem is my winning stakes are never big enough, and my losing stakes are too big
lol. I like that; "don't get high on your own supply." I've fallen into that trap before.
IMO, It's definitely worth doing a long-term P/L on your betting every now & again - reducing your stake sizes if it's L & increasing them if it's P. 98% of punters are long-term losers, and while your dignity can take a bit of a hit, figuring out if you're winning or losing long-term, then adjusting stake sizes, is a sensible thing to do. Once you've proved to yourself that you're making money, up the stakes
Anyway, I guess now I'm safe to reveal this (ie, no-one can nick my trading strategy:));
My one big election lottery bet - that I spent a lot of time & effort building up - was for the next prime minister to be someone other than Ed or Dave. My reading of the internal dynamics of the tory party was that anything less than a majority, or close to a majority would leave dave fundamentally weakened and susceptible to an immediate post-election challenge from the right. I was basically expecting fireworks - and in the post-election chaos, with the prospect of another LD coalition (and with the very real possibility of another election soon), the men in coats might thank Dave for his services and see him to the door.
Give all the data available at the time, there seemed to be about a 50%-70% chance of the tories getting the most seats in a deeply hung parliament - I judged it to be about a ~5% chance that we'd end up with a non-dave tory prime minister. So, while the betfair market wrote off the possibility of anyone other than Ed or Dave (except during the last week or so, when punters started backing boris) - I spent a lot of time laying them both (effectively backing the field at odds of 1-(1/Ed+1/Dave)) for pretty much no cost at all. By the exit poll, I stood to make £50k if anyone other than Dave or Ed became PM - and £200k if it was Hammond or May.
It was basically a gigantic free bet - but in order for it to have come into play, it required a deeply hung parliament with the tories as largest party.
I wonder, in an alternative history, how a hung parliament would have played out?
Banks has called on Douglas Carswell, Suzanne Evans and Patrick O’Flynn, the three main figures who do not want Farage to remain as leader, to be thrown out of the party.
A BBC political journalist was left red-faced after an outrageous slip-up when he called Nigel Farage one of the most offensive words in the English language LIVE ON AIR.
Banks has called on Douglas Carswell, Suzanne Evans and Patrick O’Flynn, the three main figures who do not want Farage to remain as leader, to be thrown out of the party.
This is the chap that Nigel Farage unveiled immediately after David Cameron's conference speech when we all assumed that another MP was going to defect. His contribution to UKIP's profile has been mixed at best so far.
Banks has called on Douglas Carswell, Suzanne Evans and Patrick O’Flynn, the three main figures who do not want Farage to remain as leader, to be thrown out of the party.
A party taken over by rich backers. And UKIP were meant to be 'different'. Seems not.
A BBC political journalist was left red-faced after an outrageous slip-up when he called Nigel Farage one of the most offensive words in the English language LIVE ON AIR.
Banks has called on Douglas Carswell, Suzanne Evans and Patrick O’Flynn, the three main figures who do not want Farage to remain as leader, to be thrown out of the party.
A party taken over by rich backers. And UKIP were meant to be 'different'. Seems not.
Would you be able to list the bankers please. I presume there are loads of them as you state that they have been taken over by them.
Arron Banks is a businessmen who made his money in insurance (if I remember correctly) and Stuart Wheeler is a barrister turned businessman who owned a spreadbetting firm. Neither of them are bankers.
Clough (who may be the closest footballing analogue to Farage, though not politically of course) oversaw a fair amount of mediocrity at Forest toward the end, and really should've gone sooner. Forest have averaged over a manager a year since he went, with only Frank Clark bringing real success (3rd in the Premier League, believe it or not). however, Mourinho-less Chelsea still managed to win plenty without him.
On Spurs/Redknapp - yes he got them in 4th, but that was before City got a megabucks team assembled and 4th place was up for grabs (see also Moyes/Everton) - now the top 4 are basically a cartel with the odd occasional incursion, whihc makes it much harder for Spurs under any manager to break in.
Err, Spurs finished fourth in 2009-10 - which was the second season of City having megabucks. Spurs also finished fourth in 2011-12, but Chelsea (who finished sixth) won the Champions League. And Redknapp was sacked for not getting Spurs into the Champions League.
Assembled a megabucks team, not had megabucks.
Second point is fair enough though.
Apologies, I kind of knew what you meant, though City still had a decent team that season. Spurs also beat Liverpool on the opening day of 2009-10 and that helped set the tone for Liverpool's poor season who had been solidly in the top 4. As a Gooner I was quite pleased to see Harry get the sack, he got Spurs playing some decent football. After he left they became thoroughly dependent upon Bale.
In respect of Farage I'm torn. I think he absolutely deserves to carry on. Sure, the conditions in which he has operated over the last five years have been favourable, but he's brought a decent level of organisation to the party that certainly wasn't there in 2010. But at the same time I'd genuinely like to see him take a break. I think someone like Paul Nuttall or Suzanne Evans would do a good job leading the party too.
Patrick O'Flynn as Walder Frey fired the first arrows of the onslaught Farage and he must go, not because of the attack, but for the public spectacle he made of it. No way can he now stay.
A BBC political journalist was left red-faced after an outrageous slip-up when he called Nigel Farage one of the most offensive words in the English language LIVE ON AIR.
The only predictions worth taking any notice of whatsoever are where someone does the opposite - ie predicting their own party will lose etc.
Like Bob Sykes!
Harsh! The Herd have had a whip-round and bought Bob a new strap-on spine....
He's all better now.
I assumed the polls over the last couple of years were right. That's all!
I wasn't the only one....
And I'm a bit pissed off with the pollsters too. I had a pretty sound record on here and they've made me look a bit stupid for being taken in. I also offended JackW (although I still think it was flukish good luck rather than judgement), and besmirched a PM who in little over a fortnight transformed himself from a chillaxing essay-crisiser to a triumphant man of people enjoying possibly the most spectacular election triumph since Atlee's.
A lot of us have had to eat humble pie this week. It's tastier when it's warm, I find.
Banks has called on Douglas Carswell, Suzanne Evans and Patrick O’Flynn, the three main figures who do not want Farage to remain as leader, to be thrown out of the party.
This is the chap that Nigel Farage unveiled immediately after David Cameron's conference speech when we all assumed that another MP was going to defect. His contribution to UKIP's profile has been mixed at best so far.
The prime minister has appointed former adviser Andrew Dunlop to be the new junior minister at the Scotland Office. Mr Dunlop was an adviser to David Cameron during the independence referendum. He was also working with Conservative Party HQ when the poll tax was introduced under Margaret Thatcher. Mr Dunlop has been given a peerage and will sit in the Lords. The SNP described his appointment and the peerage as "scandalous".
Oh dear me. Tories at 14 per cent and going down. Revive the Party by enobling the genius behind the Poll Tax! Ruth Davidson must be tearing her hair out!
What is scandalous about this particular appointment? I'm sure lot of people worked at CCHQ in 1989.
Bit like appointing Boris Minister of State for Children and Families. Tbf appropriate apointments for anything in Scotland is problematic for the Tories; let it be henceforth known as the Mundell conundrum.
Is this appointment more or less appropriate than sending bigots and republican sympathisers to represent Scotland at Westminster ?
Who knows? The outrage of plastic Jocks boarding the 'O'ffended bus' is neither here nor there though.
Banks has called on Douglas Carswell, Suzanne Evans and Patrick O’Flynn, the three main figures who do not want Farage to remain as leader, to be thrown out of the party.
A party taken over by rich backers. And UKIP were meant to be 'different'. Seems not.
Would you be able to list the bankers please. I presume there are loads of them as you state that they have been taken over by them.
Arron Banks is a businessmen who made his money in insurance (if I remember correctly) and Stuart Wheeler is a barrister turned businessman who owned a spreadbetting firm. Neither of them are bankers.
The Westminster bubble is making yet another mistake IMO which is being obsessed with ridiculing UKIP when they've just won 3.8 million votes.
George Osborne has actually been busy giving a very interesting speech in Manchester.
Correct. The so called Westminster bubble is ignoring UKIP. Osborne's announcement is as expected following the tory manifesto and all of Osborne's previous measures and comments. It looks very good, although I would not describe is as 'devolution' in the sense we talk about it for Scotland. The problem as I see it is the half baked nature of our local government. Maybe this will actually be the solution if it succeeds and we can see our local government reformed by 'best practice' - certainly I hope that along with new powers and responsibilities there will be some examination of what succeeds elsewhere.
Banks has called on Douglas Carswell, Suzanne Evans and Patrick O’Flynn, the three main figures who do not want Farage to remain as leader, to be thrown out of the party.
A party taken over by rich backers. And UKIP were meant to be 'different'. Seems not.
Would you be able to list the bankers please. I presume there are loads of them as you state that they have been taken over by them.
Arron Banks is a businessmen who made his money in insurance (if I remember correctly) and Stuart Wheeler is a barrister turned businessman who owned a spreadbetting firm. Neither of them are bankers.
Could someone identify for me what each of the Labour leadership candidates thinks that they bring that no other candidate brings? Because with the possible exception of Liz Kendall, the differentiation has been poor so far.
Banks has called on Douglas Carswell, Suzanne Evans and Patrick O’Flynn, the three main figures who do not want Farage to remain as leader, to be thrown out of the party.
This is the chap that Nigel Farage unveiled immediately after David Cameron's conference speech when we all assumed that another MP was going to defect. His contribution to UKIP's profile has been mixed at best so far.
It was basically a gigantic free bet - but in order for it to have come into play, it required a deeply hung parliament with the tories as largest party.
I wonder, in an alternative history, how a hung parliament would have played out?
Would my bet have come into play?
Free bets are good. They are bets at infinite odds. The only reason it might not have been good would have been if you were tying up lots of capital which could have been deployed for bets with a better chance of winning.
My strategy for the GE was incredibly simple:
1. Bet on the SNP 2. I didn't pretend to know exactly what would happen, so I focused on getting an all-green position on the main market by trading bets early on (I recommended here backing Labour Most Seats in 2012/13 and then backing Tories Most seats later on), and in the past few months by exploiting the difference between the constituency odds and the seat-market odds.
To my mind this was the easiest betting gig to make money on since I started political betting in 2008.
My only mistake was that I laid off some of my SNP position too early.
Banks has called on Douglas Carswell, Suzanne Evans and Patrick O’Flynn, the three main figures who do not want Farage to remain as leader, to be thrown out of the party.
This is the chap that Nigel Farage unveiled immediately after David Cameron's conference speech when we all assumed that another MP was going to defect. His contribution to UKIP's profile has been mixed at best so far.
He was supposedly behind this gem:
I dunno. Found that quite entertaining.
David Cameron as Tony Blair... and Nick Clegg as the yes man. Never gets old.
It was basically a gigantic free bet - but in order for it to have come into play, it required a deeply hung parliament with the tories as largest party.
I wonder, in an alternative history, how a hung parliament would have played out?
Would my bet have come into play?
Free bets are good. They are bets at infinite odds. The only reason it might not have been good would have been if you were tying up lots of capital which could have been deployed for bets with a better chance of winning.
My strategy for the GE was incredibly simple:
1. Bet on the SNP 2. I didn't pretend to know exactly what would happen, so I focused on getting an all-green position on the main market by trading bets early on (I recommended here backing Labour Most Seats in 2012/13 and then backing Tories Most seats later on), and in the past few months by exploiting the difference between the constituency odds and the seat-market odds.
To my mind this was the easiest betting gig to make money on since I started political betting in 2008.
My only mistake was that I laid off some of my SNP position too early.
On Pong's laying both Ed and Dave for next PM, could we have had joint PMs in a Grand Coalition? Or am I just being silly?
Steve Rotherham, Andrew Gwynne and Ian Lavery declared for Burnhnam
Sharon Hodgson and Helen Goodman for Cooper
I believe that for 3 quid you can join the Labour Party and then get to vote on the leadership election. All the Tories should join no vote for the most useless one of the bunch. A bit like a reverse Bercowism.
It was basically a gigantic free bet - but in order for it to have come into play, it required a deeply hung parliament with the tories as largest party.
I wonder, in an alternative history, how a hung parliament would have played out?
Would my bet have come into play?
Free bets are good. They are bets at infinite odds. The only reason it might not have been good would have been if you were tying up lots of capital which could have been deployed for bets with a better chance of winning.
My strategy for the GE was incredibly simple:
1. Bet on the SNP 2. I didn't pretend to know exactly what would happen, so I focused on getting an all-green position on the main market by trading bets early on (I recommended here backing Labour Most Seats in 2012/13 and then backing Tories Most seats later on), and in the past few months by exploiting the difference between the constituency odds and the seat-market odds.
To my mind this was the easiest betting gig to make money on since I started political betting in 2008.
My only mistake was that I laid off some of my SNP position too early.
Simple, but effective.
Do you mind me asking, what was your rough profit as a % of stakes?
Being born north of the Watford gap am I wrong in thinking that Andy Burnham may struggle to connect with the south ?
And that Kendall is the best candidate for this ?
Dunno about Liz (I don't really know enough about her as yet), but you are right about Andy.
It's not because he's got a northern accent, it's because he's no damned good. Those who think he is good do so because they are desperate to back a northern, working-class lad. It's not enough.
Steve Rotherham, Andrew Gwynne and Ian Lavery declared for Burnhnam
Sharon Hodgson and Helen Goodman for Cooper
I believe that for 3 quid you can join the Labour Party and then get to vote on the leadership election. All the Tories should join no vote for the most useless one of the bunch. A bit like a reverse Bercowism.
Dangerous tactic. The dreadful candidate could actually win and be a dreadful PM.
The wrong Miliband winning five years ago may have made it easier for us to win last week, but had he actually won then it would have been awful for the nation. That's like playing Russian Roulette.
Steve Rotherham, Andrew Gwynne and Ian Lavery declared for Burnhnam
Sharon Hodgson and Helen Goodman for Cooper
I believe that for 3 quid you can join the Labour Party and then get to vote on the leadership election. All the Tories should join no vote for the most useless one of the bunch. A bit like a reverse Bercowism.
But isn't it quite difficult to work out which is the most useless one of the bunch?
Being born north of the Watford gap am I wrong in thinking that Andy Burnham may struggle to connect with the south ?
And that Kendall is the best candidate for this ?
I'm struggling to see an MP (Burnham) or the lobby gobblers as PM material. I should emphasise though that this is out of cold mean spirited prejudice.
The Westminster bubble is making yet another mistake IMO which is being obsessed with ridiculing UKIP when they've just won 3.8 million votes.
Why is that a mistake? Do you think 3.8 million is something special?
The Lib Dems got 6.8 million in 2010 and the Westminster bubble has been ridiculing them for the last five years.
Ridicule would have been laughing at the Lib Dems believing that they could achieve 8% of the vote and hang on to 30 seats. I just wish I'd had the courage of my convictions and sold them on SPIN.
I've not seen yet what was the final difference between SPIN and the actual result? At say a day before the election.
I recall people kept saying here how SPIN over-estimates the Tories and making comparisons to the previous vote. Guessing that rule got broken this time?
I believe that for 3 quid you can join the Labour Party and then get to vote on the leadership election. All the Tories should join no vote for the most useless one of the bunch. A bit like a reverse Bercowism." Last time they opened up to join as Young Labour (up to 26) for £1 a year. They should do the same again this time. This time it is only for 14-19.
The Westminster bubble is making yet another mistake IMO which is being obsessed with ridiculing UKIP when they've just won 3.8 million votes.
Why is that a mistake? Do you think 3.8 million is something special?
The Lib Dems got 6.8 million in 2010 and the Westminster bubble has been ridiculing them for the last five years.
Ridicule would have been laughing at the Lib Dems believing that they could achieve 8% of the vote and hang on to 30 seats. I just wish I'd had the courage of my convictions and sold them on SPIN.
I've not seen yet what was the final difference between SPIN and the actual result? At say a day before the election.
I recall people kept saying here how SPIN over-estimates the Tories and making comparisons to the previous vote. Guessing that rule got broken this time?
Anyone compiling election results might be interested in 3 mistakes that have been identified so far:
(a) The LD vote in Castle Point was 801 not 80. (b) The Green vote in Birkenhead was 1,626 not 162. (c) The electorate in Lichfield was 74,234 not 83,339.
A BBC political journalist was left red-faced after an outrageous slip-up when he called Nigel Farage one of the most offensive words in the English language LIVE ON AIR.
The Westminster bubble is making yet another mistake IMO which is being obsessed with ridiculing UKIP when they've just won 3.8 million votes.
Why is that a mistake? Do you think 3.8 million is something special?
The Lib Dems got 6.8 million in 2010 and the Westminster bubble has been ridiculing them for the last five years.
Ridicule would have been laughing at the Lib Dems believing that they could achieve 8% of the vote and hang on to 30 seats. I just wish I'd had the courage of my convictions and sold them on SPIN.
I've not seen yet what was the final difference between SPIN and the actual result? At say a day before the election.
I recall people kept saying here how SPIN over-estimates the Tories and making comparisons to the previous vote. Guessing that rule got broken this time?
Smashed to pieces.
I suspect SPIN lost a lot of money on the result. If you re-read the PB piece by the politics trader, it was clear that they weren't able to take equal amounts on both sides of the spread - at least up to a couple of days before (and I suspect, right up to the exit poll) - and they couldn't continually push their Con seats spread higher, because it would have created big arbs.
btw - I think the exit pollsters deserve a lot of respect for ensuring nothing got leaked before 10. That is becoming harder and harder
Yvette Cooper was on Radio 4's lunchtime news show today and she came across as a bit hectoring and impatient, much to my surprise. Yesterday I said I thought she would be the best candidate for Labour.
I would be happy for any of the candidates so far to become Labour leader. They are all utterly hopeless.
If I had to pick one I'd like the most, it would be Butcher, because he always looks like he's about to cry. Yvette looks permanently petulant and angry and the others are just no marks.
A BBC political journalist was left red-faced after an outrageous slip-up when he called Nigel Farage one of the most offensive words in the English language LIVE ON AIR.
I think we need a competition for the best definition of 'personality c*nt'. Nigel Farage is not a permitted answer as it would be a circular definition.
I would be happy for any of the candidates so far to become Labour leader. They are all utterly hopeless.
If I had to pick one I'd like the most, it would be Butcher, because he always looks like he's about to cry. Yvette looks permanently petulant and angry and the others are just no marks.
I'm with you on that, although I'm half hoping that they pick Abbott.
Yvette Cooper was on Radio 4's lunchtime news show today and she came across as a bit hectoring and impatient, much to my surprise. Yesterday I said I thought she would be the best candidate for Labour.
She is only slightly less annoying than Hazel "13k " Blears.
I would be happy for any of the candidates so far to become Labour leader. They are all utterly hopeless.
If I had to pick one I'd like the most, it would be Butcher, because he always looks like he's about to cry. Yvette looks permanently petulant and angry and the others are just no marks.
I'm with you on that, although I'm half hoping that they pick Abbott.
If Abbot is running it really would be hard to resist not joining the Labour Party for a very short period only just so you could vote for her
Yvette Cooper was on Radio 4's lunchtime news show today and she came across as a bit hectoring and impatient, much to my surprise. Yesterday I said I thought she would be the best candidate for Labour.
Based on previous interviews of hers I have listened to, especially with Andrew Neill, I would rate her as the weakest of the declared Labour candidates by some distance.
The Westminster bubble is making yet another mistake IMO which is being obsessed with ridiculing UKIP when they've just won 3.8 million votes.
Why is that a mistake? Do you think 3.8 million is something special?
The Lib Dems got 6.8 million in 2010 and the Westminster bubble has been ridiculing them for the last five years.
Ridicule would have been laughing at the Lib Dems believing that they could achieve 8% of the vote and hang on to 30 seats. I just wish I'd had the courage of my convictions and sold them on SPIN.
I've not seen yet what was the final difference between SPIN and the actual result? At say a day before the election.
I recall people kept saying here how SPIN over-estimates the Tories and making comparisons to the previous vote. Guessing that rule got broken this time?
Smashed to pieces.
I suspect SPIN lost a lot of money on the result. If you re-read the PB piece by the politics trader, it was clear that they weren't able to take equal amounts on both sides of the spread - at least up to a couple of days before (and I suspect, right up to the exit poll) - and they couldn't continually push their Con seats spread higher, because it would have created big arbs.
btw - I think the exit pollsters deserve a lot of respect for ensuring nothing got leaked before 10. That is becoming harder and harder
First time we have won on a general election since 1992, cant post exact figures but we won just over 4 times the notional profit we had it in for, so very pleasing for all involved, now back to the day jobs.
Yvette Cooper was on Radio 4's lunchtime news show today and she came across as a bit hectoring and impatient, much to my surprise. Yesterday I said I thought she would be the best candidate for Labour.
Based on previous interviews of hers I have listened to, especially with Andrew Neill, I would rate her as the weakest of the declared Labour candidates by some distance.
Yvette Cooper was on Radio 4's lunchtime news show today and she came across as a bit hectoring and impatient, much to my surprise. Yesterday I said I thought she would be the best candidate for Labour.
Of the old guard:
Yvette will get some Balls/Brown loyalists, but her communication skills are a bit lacking. I do not think that she can escape that legacy.
Chuka has always been an empty suit (albeit a well cut one). Labour do like a bit of policy though and Chuka does not do detail.
Burnham will do better with the left, and party activists are possibly going to be impressed by his loyalty and active part in the campaign
Mary Creagh may well appeal to the islington set, but this is rather a minority comparedthe wider membership. A good speaker though.
Liz Kendall may have frightened a few horses by her comments in the last few days. A very effective speaker and very driven.
So an interesting bunch. I think Andy will most likely win, though Liz will do very well in the hustings.
Anyone compiling election results might be interested in 3 mistakes that have been identified so far:
(a) The LD vote in Castle Point was 801 not 80. (b) The Green vote in Birkenhead was 1,626 not 162. (c) The electorate in Lichfield was 74,234 not 83,339.
Makes me weep, after all the pavement pounding I did for the LD’s in CP over the years. We were running at 15% or so percent. ‘Course that was in the 70’s and 80’s and a lot of people who voted LD then will have moved, died etc. I do know a few LD’s there though, who voted Tory to keep UKIP out.
Do you mind me asking, what was your rough profit as a % of stakes?
According to my rough calculations, about 59%. Given that I was pursuing a low-risk strategy, that was pretty good. Of course Nicola helped with that!
Christ well done.
Yeah, that's really impressive.
My P/L was very very lumpy depending on the result - I don't think I could have lost money on any outcome, but I would have made far more had the result been more in line with the polls.
First time we have won on a general election since 1992, cant post exact figures but we won just over 4 times the notional profit we had it in for, so very pleasing for all involved, now back to the day jobs.
Well done. And I think "...since 1992" might explode a few myths on here.
Quite good. Mature, and, which may be significant...
If there are votes for smiles, she will win by a landslide.
After the last two Labour leaders having someone who can do a natural smile without making your skin crawl when they smile should be part of the audition process.
Anyone compiling election results might be interested in 3 mistakes that have been identified so far:
(a) The LD vote in Castle Point was 801 not 80. (b) The Green vote in Birkenhead was 1,626 not 162. (c) The electorate in Lichfield was 74,234 not 83,339.
The LD candidate in Castle Point looked fairly concerned to make that point to the returning officer on the TV coverage.
The Westminster bubble is making yet another mistake IMO which is being obsessed with ridiculing UKIP when they've just won 3.8 million votes.
Why is that a mistake? Do you think 3.8 million is something special?
The Lib Dems got 6.8 million in 2010 and the Westminster bubble has been ridiculing them for the last five years.
Ridicule would have been laughing at the Lib Dems believing that they could achieve 8% of the vote and hang on to 30 seats. I just wish I'd had the courage of my convictions and sold them on SPIN.
I've not seen yet what was the final difference between SPIN and the actual result? At say a day before the election.
I recall people kept saying here how SPIN over-estimates the Tories and making comparisons to the previous vote. Guessing that rule got broken this time?
Smashed to pieces.
I suspect SPIN lost a lot of money on the result. If you re-read the PB piece by the politics trader, it was clear that they weren't able to take equal amounts on both sides of the spread - at least up to a couple of days before (and I suspect, right up to the exit poll) - and they couldn't continually push their Con seats spread higher, because it would have created big arbs.
btw - I think the exit pollsters deserve a lot of respect for ensuring nothing got leaked before 10. That is becoming harder and harder
First time we have won on a general election since 1992, cant post exact figures but we won just over 4 times the notional profit we had it in for, so very pleasing for all involved, now back to the day jobs.
Wow, you've surprised me there. Congratulations are in order.
Do you mind me asking if your book was skewed towards the tories before the exit poll? - ie, was it *good* or *bad* news for your book at 10pm?
I noticed the SPIN spread after the 10pm readjustment nudged several seats labour's way - which I took to mean you were taking hefty bets from the *I don't believe it!* punters. I mostly stayed out of the spreads this time, but FWIW, I did paper trade the result and would have sold the tory supremacy @ 20 seats. That would have been a disaster
Comments
The Lib Dems got 6.8 million in 2010 and the Westminster bubble has been ridiculing them for the last five years.
My problem is my winning stakes are never big enough, and my losing stakes are too big
Plus 1.6% for the Kippers makes 16.5%!
Easily the lowest % vote for the Right in any of the Home Nations!
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/598497117380939776
Second point is fair enough though.
O'Flynn's main issue was with Farage's advisers. They are both gone. They have provided terrible advice and have paid the price.
I would like to see someone else lead UKIP, preferably Steven Woolfe.
Tbf appropriate apointments for anything in Scotland is problematic for the Tories; let it be henceforth known as the Mundell conundrum.
www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-minister-mary-creagh-attacks-thomas-the-tank-engine-over-lack-of-female-characters-9027328.html
Would she have been happier if Christopher Robin & Pooh and lived in a mining village?
If you're betting on it now though don't back Tessa, she is too short
Should have had a fat controlleress
It's possible to find fault with anything if you want to.
People sometimes criticise Lord of the Rings for the lack of female characters.
Someone on here the other day pointed out that Scotland requested the implementation first, to avoid revaluation.
I suspect the SNP will have regular outbursts of outrage, not least since on this first occasion they have set the bar pathetically low.
They need to put their Short Money to better use.
Banks has called on Douglas Carswell, Suzanne Evans and Patrick O’Flynn, the three main figures who do not want Farage to remain as leader, to be thrown out of the party.
IMO, It's definitely worth doing a long-term P/L on your betting every now & again - reducing your stake sizes if it's L & increasing them if it's P. 98% of punters are long-term losers, and while your dignity can take a bit of a hit, figuring out if you're winning or losing long-term, then adjusting stake sizes, is a sensible thing to do. Once you've proved to yourself that you're making money, up the stakes
Anyway, I guess now I'm safe to reveal this (ie, no-one can nick my trading strategy:));
My one big election lottery bet - that I spent a lot of time & effort building up - was for the next prime minister to be someone other than Ed or Dave. My reading of the internal dynamics of the tory party was that anything less than a majority, or close to a majority would leave dave fundamentally weakened and susceptible to an immediate post-election challenge from the right. I was basically expecting fireworks - and in the post-election chaos, with the prospect of another LD coalition (and with the very real possibility of another election soon), the men in coats might thank Dave for his services and see him to the door.
Give all the data available at the time, there seemed to be about a 50%-70% chance of the tories getting the most seats in a deeply hung parliament - I judged it to be about a ~5% chance that we'd end up with a non-dave tory prime minister. So, while the betfair market wrote off the possibility of anyone other than Ed or Dave (except during the last week or so, when punters started backing boris) - I spent a lot of time laying them both (effectively backing the field at odds of 1-(1/Ed+1/Dave)) for pretty much no cost at all. By the exit poll, I stood to make £50k if anyone other than Dave or Ed became PM - and £200k if it was Hammond or May.
It was basically a gigantic free bet - but in order for it to have come into play, it required a deeply hung parliament with the tories as largest party.
I wonder, in an alternative history, how a hung parliament would have played out?
Would my bet have come into play?
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2015/05/14/bbcs-norman-smith-farage-bbc-swearing_n_7281716.html
Oh dear.....
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2006/jan/05/localgovernment.politics1
Not often a politician is criticised so roundly.
Arron Banks is a businessmen who made his money in insurance (if I remember correctly) and Stuart Wheeler is a barrister turned businessman who owned a spreadbetting firm. Neither of them are bankers.
In respect of Farage I'm torn. I think he absolutely deserves to carry on. Sure, the conditions in which he has operated over the last five years have been favourable, but he's brought a decent level of organisation to the party that certainly wasn't there in 2010. But at the same time I'd genuinely like to see him take a break. I think someone like Paul Nuttall or Suzanne Evans would do a good job leading the party too.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CYsW8WID1kU
http://www.lgcplus.com/islington-5-cleared-in-standards-board-case/524438.article
Osborne's announcement is as expected following the tory manifesto and all of Osborne's previous measures and comments.
It looks very good, although I would not describe is as 'devolution' in the sense we talk about it for Scotland. The problem as I see it is the half baked nature of our local government. Maybe this will actually be the solution if it succeeds and we can see our local government reformed by 'best practice' - certainly I hope that along with new powers and responsibilities there will be some examination of what succeeds elsewhere.
My strategy for the GE was incredibly simple:
1. Bet on the SNP
2. I didn't pretend to know exactly what would happen, so I focused on getting an all-green position on the main market by trading bets early on (I recommended here backing Labour Most Seats in 2012/13 and then backing Tories Most seats later on), and in the past few months by exploiting the difference between the constituency odds and the seat-market odds.
To my mind this was the easiest betting gig to make money on since I started political betting in 2008.
My only mistake was that I laid off some of my SNP position too early.
Steve Rotherham, Andrew Gwynne and Ian Lavery declared for Burnhnam
Sharon Hodgson and Helen Goodman for Cooper
And that Kendall is the best candidate for this ?
Do you mind me asking, what was your rough profit as a % of stakes?
It's not because he's got a northern accent, it's because he's no damned good. Those who think he is good do so because they are desperate to back a northern, working-class lad. It's not enough.
I'm very hopeful he'll be chosen.
The wrong Miliband winning five years ago may have made it easier for us to win last week, but had he actually won then it would have been awful for the nation. That's like playing Russian Roulette.
Best bit of advice ever for political betting.
I should emphasise though that this is out of cold mean spirited prejudice.
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/orderedseats.html
I recall people kept saying here how SPIN over-estimates the Tories and making comparisons to the previous vote. Guessing that rule got broken this time?
Last time they opened up to join as Young Labour (up to 26) for £1 a year. They should do the same again this time.
This time it is only for 14-19.
(a) The LD vote in Castle Point was 801 not 80.
(b) The Green vote in Birkenhead was 1,626 not 162.
(c) The electorate in Lichfield was 74,234 not 83,339.
btw - I think the exit pollsters deserve a lot of respect for ensuring nothing got leaked before 10. That is becoming harder and harder
If I had to pick one I'd like the most, it would be Butcher, because he always looks like he's about to cry. Yvette looks permanently petulant and angry and the others are just no marks.
If Abbot is running it really would be hard to resist not joining the Labour Party for a very short period only just so you could vote for her
Quite good. Mature, and, which may be significant...
If there are votes for smiles, she will win by a landslide.
Yvette will get some Balls/Brown loyalists, but her communication skills are a bit lacking. I do not think that she can escape that legacy.
Chuka has always been an empty suit (albeit a well cut one). Labour do like a bit of policy though and Chuka does not do detail.
Burnham will do better with the left, and party activists are possibly going to be impressed by his loyalty and active part in the campaign
Mary Creagh may well appeal to the islington set, but this is rather a minority comparedthe wider membership. A good speaker though.
Liz Kendall may have frightened a few horses by her comments in the last few days. A very effective speaker and very driven.
So an interesting bunch. I think Andy will most likely win, though Liz will do very well in the hustings.
And no, I’m not there any longer!
My P/L was very very lumpy depending on the result - I don't think I could have lost money on any outcome, but I would have made far more had the result been more in line with the polls.
Still, my ~45% ROI is respectable enough
Do you mind me asking if your book was skewed towards the tories before the exit poll? - ie, was it *good* or *bad* news for your book at 10pm?
I noticed the SPIN spread after the 10pm readjustment nudged several seats labour's way - which I took to mean you were taking hefty bets from the *I don't believe it!* punters. I mostly stayed out of the spreads this time, but FWIW, I did paper trade the result and would have sold the tory supremacy @ 20 seats. That would have been a disaster