I can't help thinking that Labour are putting the cart afore the horse. They're so wrapped up in identity politics that they're looking at candidates like they're ready meals ("Ooh, this one's northern with a hint of working class").
How about developing some attractive policies that actually hang together in some positive and thematic way?
I can't help thinking that Labour are putting the cart afore the horse. They're so wrapped up in identity politics that they're looking at candidates like they're ready meals ("Ooh, this one's northern with a hint of working class").
How about developing some attractive policies that actually hang together in some positive and thematic way?
Spot on - They are self destructing at present - some accepting they overspent others saying they spent it wrongly. At this time last week how many on this forum would have even thought one party would destruct let alone all three, leaving the Conservatives, SNP and Greens sailing along merrily.
A BBC political journalist was left red-faced after an outrageous slip-up when he called Nigel Farage one of the most offensive words in the English language LIVE ON AIR.
I think we need a competition for the best definition of 'personality c*nt'. Nigel Farage is not a permitted answer as it would be a circular definition.
personality c*nt n. 1. Piers Morgan 2. Russell Brand 3. Jeremy Beadle (obs.)
A mature woman Working class Seems normal, not hectoring From the Midlands Represents a Northern seat. A Celt (Irish heritage). Might have the best chance of winning back something in Scotland. That smile...
I've never voted Labour in my life, but she intrigues me like no other candidate, and I would definitely give her a hearing.
A BBC political journalist was left red-faced after an outrageous slip-up when he called Nigel Farage one of the most offensive words in the English language LIVE ON AIR.
I think we need a competition for the best definition of 'personality c*nt'. Nigel Farage is not a permitted answer as it would be a circular definition.
personality c*nt n. 1. Piers Morgan 2. Russell Brand 3. Jeremy Beadle (obs.)
Russell Brand surely in poll position...
But Steve Coogan or Eddie Izzard are contenders too.
A mature woman Working class Seems normal, not hectoring From the Midlands Represents a Northern seat. A Celt (Irish heritage). Might have the best chance of winning back something in Scotland. That smile...
I've never voted Labour in my life, but she intrigues me like no other candidate, and I would definitely give her a hearing.
On the basis of this performance, which is the first thing that comes up on Youtube, I don't think she's got it.
A BBC political journalist was left red-faced after an outrageous slip-up when he called Nigel Farage one of the most offensive words in the English language LIVE ON AIR.
I think we need a competition for the best definition of 'personality c*nt'. Nigel Farage is not a permitted answer as it would be a circular definition.
personality c*nt n. 1. Piers Morgan 2. Russell Brand 3. Jeremy Beadle (obs.)
Russell Brand surely in poll position...
But Steve Coogan or Eddie Izzard are contenders too.
Viz used to do a thing called 'celebrity c*nts'... Worth a google
A BBC political journalist was left red-faced after an outrageous slip-up when he called Nigel Farage one of the most offensive words in the English language LIVE ON AIR.
I think we need a competition for the best definition of 'personality c*nt'. Nigel Farage is not a permitted answer as it would be a circular definition.
personality c*nt n. 1. Piers Morgan 2. Russell Brand 3. Jeremy Beadle (obs.)
Russell Brand surely in poll position...
But Steve Coogan or Eddie Izzard are contenders too.
I note how Russell has popped up again, telling all his disciplines to opt out of the mainstream, set up alternative communities, alternative subsistence, alternative currencies...this message brought to you from the set of his latest Hollywood movie (filmed in Vancouver for tax reasons) where he stars alongside Nicholas Cage.
Quite good. Mature, and, which may be significant...
If there are votes for smiles, she will win by a landslide.
33/1 (double carpet?) Looks good to cover my Kendall bets. The winner will be a woman, I strongly suspect.
The voting system for the Labour leadership needs to be considered. With 4 or 5 runners (It maybe hard to get enough nominations for 5 different candidates) in the race it could come down to the 2nd preferences of the 3rd,4th and 5th finishers. This may well result in one of the more central, in Labour party terms, women winning rather than Burnham or Umunna who at this point seem to be at the 2 opposite sides of the party. If I had to guess I think that Cooper is the most likely of the 3 to benefit from this but due to the number of union members who may end up voting I think that Burnham has to be favourite atm.
Wow, you've surprised me there. Congratulations are in order.
Do you mind me asking if your book was skewed towards the tories before the exit poll?
I noticed the SPIN spread after the 10pm readjustment nudged labour's way - which I took to mean you were taking hefty bets from the *I don't believe it!* punters. I mostly stayed out of the spreads this time, but FWIW, I did paper trade the result and would have sold the tory supremacy @ 20 seats. That would have been a disaster
Cheers, disappointed its all over though to be honest but we have got plans to start covering more politics going forward, fingers crossed that we actually do.
We started taking big business on clients selling tory seats around 4-5pm-i think bf drifted to around 1.30 Tory most seats around this time. Surprisingly though, we took very little in terms of SNP buyers pre-exit poll despite our inviting buy price as we were looking to lay abit off as we were buyers of SNP seats.
It was quite hectic after the exit poll, i think we started taking around a bet a second in at one point, and in the end, we were surprised ourselves that we were in a position that we were cheering on the Tories to win seats over UKIP, as has been alluded to on here by some, we were huge buyers of UKIP seats.
A mature woman Working class Seems normal, not hectoring From the Midlands Represents a Northern seat. A Celt (Irish heritage). Might have the best chance of winning back something in Scotland. That smile...
I've never voted Labour in my life, but she intrigues me like no other candidate, and I would definitely give her a hearing.
On the basis of this performance, which is the first thing that comes up on Youtube, I don't think she's got it.
Clough (who may be the closest footballing analogue to Farage, though not politically of course) oversaw a fair amount of mediocrity at Forest toward the end, and really should've gone sooner. Forest have averaged over a manager a year since he went, with only Frank Clark bringing real success (3rd in the Premier League, believe it or not). however, Mourinho-less Chelsea still managed to win plenty without him.
On Spurs/Redknapp - yes he got them in 4th, but that was before City got a megabucks team assembled and 4th place was up for grabs (see also Moyes/Everton) - now the top 4 are basically a cartel with the odd occasional incursion, whihc makes it much harder for Spurs under any manager to break in.
Err, Spurs finished fourth in 2009-10 - which was the second season of City having megabucks. Spurs also finished fourth in 2011-12, but Chelsea (who finished sixth) won the Champions League. And Redknapp was sacked for not getting Spurs into the Champions League.
Assembled a megabucks team, not had megabucks.
Second point is fair enough though.
Apologies, I kind of knew what you meant, though City still had a decent team that season. Spurs also beat Liverpool on the opening day of 2009-10 and that helped set the tone for Liverpool's poor season who had been solidly in the top 4. As a Gooner I was quite pleased to see Harry get the sack, he got Spurs playing some decent football. After he left they became thoroughly dependent upon Bale.
In respect of Farage I'm torn. I think he absolutely deserves to carry on. Sure, the conditions in which he has operated over the last five years have been favourable, but he's brought a decent level of organisation to the party that certainly wasn't there in 2010. But at the same time I'd genuinely like to see him take a break. I think someone like Paul Nuttall or Suzanne Evans would do a good job leading the party too.
Honestly this is ' yeah Wenger has done a great job but I think Steve Bould and Tony Adams have a lot to offer managerially....'
I can't help thinking that Labour are putting the cart afore the horse. They're so wrapped up in identity politics that they're looking at candidates like they're ready meals ("Ooh, this one's northern with a hint of working class").
How about developing some attractive policies that actually hang together in some positive and thematic way?
Because strangely, policies weren't necessarily the problem but plausibility and direction. Ed's policy prospectus wasn't particularly radical either way, which is perhaps how he kept the Labour show on the road and had many of us believing he could win. In retrospect it allowed Labour's enemies to paint it as whatever they wanted - to middle England Labour were spendthrift socialists, in Scotland red Tories and among working class voters was another cheek of the establishment arse. The Labour manifsto wasn't a suicide note, it didn't fall apart, people just said 'thanks, but no thanks' we either a) trust the other lot more than you or b) think you're as bad as the other lot.
It's perhaps a bit like the Tories in the 2000s where the policies individually poll well but fail to inspire an electorate who don't pay much attention but still want to feel understood and somehow inspired and people projected their dislikes on to them. It makes it in many ways a more complex task than saying 'ditch the policies', and it makes the leader important. That's not to say the policies won't be ditched - they'd have to be anyway as by 2020 we'll be in a totally different political climate anyway against a different Tory leader, but right now the most important thing for Labour is to pick a leader and by extension top team with basic appeal and with the tactical savvy to change perceptions of the party and get the calls on policy right when they actually matter.
The SNP demonstrated how to pass a leadership over. Top notch job that. I reckon Salmond would have got about 40%, and Scottish Labour would still have around 8 or 9 seats. Sturgeon really finished them off.
Labour left MPs collecting signatures for anti-austerity letter. New intake most left-leaning for a long time.
Labour has a death wish.
I think Burnham is huge value and will be odds on before long.
He'll breeze through the MP stage and get lots of endorsements.
Then there's a membership that's trending leftwards, and all these one-member-one-vote supporters that the unions are recruiting very actively. Nobody knows what the final electorate will look like -- but it wouldn't shock me if the unions end up counting for more than the direct members.
The other candidates are competing for the same supporters. There are already far too many of them -- presumably one of Creagh and Kendall will endorse the other eventually, but all this makes Burnham seem still more in the driving seat.
Labour left MPs collecting signatures for anti-austerity letter. New intake most left-leaning for a long time.
Labour has a death wish.
I think Burnham is huge value and will be odds on before long.
He'll breeze through the MP stage and get lots of endorsements.
Then there's a membership that's trending leftwards, and all these one-member-one-vote supporters that the unions are recruiting very actively. Nobody knows what the final electorate will look like -- but it wouldn't shock me if the unions end up counting for more than the direct members.
The other candidates are competing for the same supporters. There are already far too many of them -- presumably one of Creagh and Kendall will endorse the other eventually, but all this makes Burnham seem still more in the driving seat.
It is AV though; so the sisters could wind up on top.
A mature woman Working class Seems normal, not hectoring From the Midlands Represents a Northern seat. A Celt (Irish heritage). Might have the best chance of winning back something in Scotland. That smile...
I've never voted Labour in my life, but she intrigues me like no other candidate, and I would definitely give her a hearing.
On the basis of this performance, which is the first thing that comes up on Youtube, I don't think she's got it.
Have any of them got it? I mean really got what it takes?
Umunna - the Man you love to hate Burnham - Yesterday's mascara man Cooper - Harman's Daughter, with Balls Kendall - bigged up purely on the back of a softball interview with Andrew Neil Tristram - can Ed come back, please? Creagh - the most interesting one of the lot, by far.
IMO, It's definitely worth doing a long-term P/L on your betting every now & again - reducing your stake sizes if it's L & increasing them if it's P. 98% of punters are long-term losers, and while your dignity can take a bit of a hit, figuring out if you're winning or losing long-term, then adjusting stake sizes, is a sensible thing to do. Once you've proved to yourself that you're making money, up the stakes
Anyway, I guess now I'm safe to reveal this (ie, no-one can nick my trading strategy:));
My one big election lottery bet - that I spent a lot of time & effort building up - was for the next prime minister to be someone other than Ed or Dave. My reading of the internal dynamics of the tory party was that anything less than a majority, or close to a majority would leave dave fundamentally weakened and susceptible to an immediate post-election challenge from the right. I was basically expecting fireworks - and in the post-election chaos, with the prospect of another LD coalition (and with the very real possibility of another election soon), the men in coats might thank Dave for his services and see him to the door.
Give all the data available at the time, there seemed to be about a 50%-70% chance of the tories getting the most seats in a deeply hung parliament - I judged it to be about a ~5% chance that we'd end up with a non-dave tory prime minister. So, while the betfair market wrote off the possibility of anyone other than Ed or Dave (except during the last week or so, when punters started backing boris) - I spent a lot of time laying them both (effectively backing the field at odds of 1-(1/Ed+1/Dave)) for pretty much no cost at all. By the exit poll, I stood to make £50k if anyone other than Dave or Ed became PM - and £200k if it was Hammond or May.
It was basically a gigantic free bet - but in order for it to have come into play, it required a deeply hung parliament with the tories as largest party.
I wonder, in an alternative history, how a hung parliament would have played out?
Would my bet have come into play?
Perhaps not Hammond or May, but a £50k off not-Dave-or-Ed would've been sweet!
I do keep a P/L spreadsheet, which, believe it or not, is currently showing a 127% return (that is, £27 back for every £100 invested) - in practise not actually that much because I don't stake more than I can ever afford to lose (see earlier rules).
It'd be higher than that if I took out my GE2015 (and last year's World Cup) betting, both of which were a dead loss (and interestingly, where I didn't bet with my gut but followed the polls and the pundits). I make my dough betting on cycling. Some incredible value there, if you do your homework - mostly because the bookies can't handicap it well enough, especially the smaller races.
Whomever Bagehot is it must be crystal-clear that he is not IOS:
IN THE election’s blurry aftermath, as Bagehot, dull with tiredness, struggled to think through the causes of the Labour Party’s calamitous defeat, he found clarity in a traditional journalistic resource: the taxi-driver who ferried him between television studios. A 40-something British Pakistani, resident in Essex and one of five sons to an immigrant father, none of whom had previously voted for anyone but Labour, he mentioned that three, including himself, had just voted Tory. “Because of the economy” he muttered gnomically, then added, as if it were hardly worth mentioning, “and because Ed Miliband’s completely useless.”
ITV news journo standing outside the BBC trying to get news, while the BBC news journos argue with the BBC QT journos about getting news clips to use on news at 10.
Am intrigued to read that she lectured in Entrepreneurship, given she studied Languages, but Labour need to understand the significance of why people go into business, and why they might not be keen on strident calls for state intervention, taxes, controls, quotas, & more regulation.
Talking to a core vote is electoral suicide, the trick is to broaden the appeal, something Miiband failed to do.
Apologies, I kind of knew what you meant, though City still had a decent team that season. Spurs also beat Liverpool on the opening day of 2009-10 and that helped set the tone for Liverpool's poor season who had been solidly in the top 4. As a Gooner I was quite pleased to see Harry get the sack, he got Spurs playing some decent football. After he left they became thoroughly dependent upon Bale.
In respect of Farage I'm torn. I think he absolutely deserves to carry on. Sure, the conditions in which he has operated over the last five years have been favourable, but he's brought a decent level of organisation to the party that certainly wasn't there in 2010. But at the same time I'd genuinely like to see him take a break. I think someone like Paul Nuttall or Suzanne Evans would do a good job leading the party too.
Honestly this is ' yeah Wenger has done a great job but I think Steve Bould and Tony Adams have a lot to offer managerially....'
I'm not so sure. I think Nigel has done a very good job and it was very much necessary for him to sort the party out for it to take advantage of the conditions of the last five years. But it wouldn't be good if Farage becomes the story for the next few years. It may be that it all blows over and the Bubble becomes more interested in important issues like economy.
IMO, It's definitely worth doing a long-term P/L on your betting every now & again - reducing your stake sizes if it's L & increasing them if it's P. 98% of punters are long-term losers, and while your dignity can take a bit of a hit, figuring out if you're winning or losing long-term, then adjusting stake sizes, is a sensible thing to do. Once you've proved to yourself that you're making money, up the stakes
Anyway, I guess now I'm safe to reveal this (ie, no-one can nick my trading strategy:));
Give all the data available at the time, there seemed to be about a 50%-70% chance of the tories getting the most seats in a deeply hung parliament - I judged it to be about a ~5% chance that we'd end up with a non-dave tory prime minister. So, while the betfair market wrote off the possibility of anyone other than Ed or Dave (except during the last week or so, when punters started backing boris) - I spent a lot of time laying them both (effectively backing the field at odds of 1-(1/Ed+1/Dave)) for pretty much no cost at all. By the exit poll, I stood to make £50k if anyone other than Dave or Ed became PM - and £200k if it was Hammond or May.
It was basically a gigantic free bet - but in order for it to have come into play, it required a deeply hung parliament with the tories as largest party.
I wonder, in an alternative history, how a hung parliament would have played out?
Would my bet have come into play?
Perhaps not Hammond or May, but a £50k off not-Dave-or-Ed would've been sweet!
I do keep a P/L spreadsheet, which, believe it or not, is currently showing a 127% return (that is, £27 back for every £100 invested) - in practise not actually that much because I don't stake more than I can ever afford to lose (see earlier rules).
It'd be higher than that if I took out my GE2015 (and last year's World Cup) betting, both of which were a dead loss (and interestingly, where I didn't bet with my gut but followed the polls and the pundits). I make my dough betting on cycling. Some incredible value there, if you do your homework - mostly because the bookies can't handicap it well enough, especially the smaller races.
Haha that is straying awfully close to "if you took out all the losing bets Id be winning a fortune"
Survation. @Survation 1m1 minute ago Our most recent polling shows the largest share of Labour lost 2010 votes in the North and Midlands went to UKIP:
The SNP demonstrated how to pass a leadership over. Top notch job that. I reckon Salmond would have got about 40%, and Scottish Labour would still have around 8 or 9 seats. Sturgeon really finished them off.
And SLAB demonstrate how not to pass on the leadership after what must be a world record defeat for a party leader:
IMO, It's definitely worth doing a long-term P/L on your betting every now & again - reducing your stake sizes if it's L & increasing them if it's P. 98% of punters are long-term losers, and while your dignity can take a bit of a hit, figuring out if you're winning or losing long-term, then adjusting stake sizes, is a sensible thing to do. Once you've proved to yourself that you're making money, up the stakes
Anyway, I guess now I'm safe to reveal this (ie, no-one can nick my trading strategy:));
Give all the data available at the time, there seemed to be about a 50%-70% chance of the tories getting the most seats in a deeply hung parliament - I judged it to be about a ~5% chance that we'd end up with a non-dave tory prime minister. So, while the betfair market wrote off the possibility of anyone other than Ed or Dave (except during the last week or so, when punters started backing boris) - I spent a lot of time laying them both (effectively backing the field at odds of 1-(1/Ed+1/Dave)) for pretty much no cost at all. By the exit poll, I stood to make £50k if anyone other than Dave or Ed became PM - and £200k if it was Hammond or May.
It was basically a gigantic free bet - but in order for it to have come into play, it required a deeply hung parliament with the tories as largest party.
I wonder, in an alternative history, how a hung parliament would have played out?
Would my bet have come into play?
Perhaps not Hammond or May, but a £50k off not-Dave-or-Ed would've been sweet!
I do keep a P/L spreadsheet, which, believe it or not, is currently showing a 127% return (that is, £27 back for every £100 invested) - in practise not actually that much because I don't stake more than I can ever afford to lose (see earlier rules).
It'd be higher than that if I took out my GE2015 (and last year's World Cup) betting, both of which were a dead loss (and interestingly, where I didn't bet with my gut but followed the polls and the pundits). I make my dough betting on cycling. Some incredible value there, if you do your homework - mostly because the bookies can't handicap it well enough, especially the smaller races.
Haha that is straying awfully close to "if you took out all the losing bets Id be winning a fortune"
I'm aware! What it means is that I should just leave certain (I.e. nearly all) markets alone!
And there is no hero to hand, but an emerging handful of pretenders to the role, who are at best promising. Mr McCluskey’s likely choice, Andy Burnham, is low down that list. The former Blairite health secretary, who has renounced the liberal reforms he helped bring, appears lightweight and fecklessly populist.
I have probably hit the limit of quotes for the article. Please read it (for the SNP are called-out as a bunch of [MODERATED]!!!
IMO, It's definitely worth doing a long-term P/L on your betting every now & again - reducing your stake sizes if it's L & increasing them if it's P. 98% of punters are long-term losers, and while your dignity can take a bit of a hit, figuring out if you're winning or losing long-term, then adjusting stake sizes, is a sensible thing to do. Once you've proved to yourself that you're making money, up the stakes
Anyway, I guess now I'm safe to reveal this (ie, no-one can nick my trading strategy:));
Give all the data available at the time, there seemed to be about a 50%-70% chance of the tories getting the most seats in a deeply hung parliament - I judged it to be about a ~5% chance that we'd end up with a non-dave tory prime minister. So, while the betfair market wrote off the possibility of anyone other than Ed or Dave (except during the last week or so, when punters started backing boris) - I spent a lot of time laying them both (effectively backing the field at odds of 1-(1/Ed+1/Dave)) for pretty much no cost at all. By the exit poll, I stood to make £50k if anyone other than Dave or Ed became PM - and £200k if it was Hammond or May.
It was basically a gigantic free bet - but in order for it to have come into play, it required a deeply hung parliament with the tories as largest party.
I wonder, in an alternative history, how a hung parliament would have played out?
Would my bet have come into play?
Perhaps not Hammond or May, but a £50k off not-Dave-or-Ed would've been sweet!
I do keep a P/L spreadsheet, which, believe it or not, is currently showing a 127% return (that is, £27 back for every £100 invested) - in practise not actually that much because I don't stake more than I can ever afford to lose (see earlier rules).
It'd be higher than that if I took out my GE2015 (and last year's World Cup) betting, both of which were a dead loss (and interestingly, where I didn't bet with my gut but followed the polls and the pundits). I make my dough betting on cycling. Some incredible value there, if you do your homework - mostly because the bookies can't handicap it well enough, especially the smaller races.
Haha that is straying awfully close to "if you took out all the losing bets Id be winning a fortune"
I'm aware! What it means is that I should just leave certain (I.e. nearly all) markets alone!
Ha just kidding!
I am a ridiculous loser on political betting
2008 £1k@5/4 Livingstone to be mayor 2010 £50@5/2 David Miliband to be Labour leader 2015 £1500 on Ukip seat betting £750 on Ukip to get over 2,3 and 5 seats
And there is no hero to hand, but an emerging handful of pretenders to the role, who are at best promising. Mr McCluskey’s likely choice, Andy Burnham, is low down that list. The former Blairite health secretary, who has renounced the liberal reforms he helped bring, appears lightweight and fecklessly populist.
I have probably hit the limit of quotes for the article. Please read it (for the SNP are called-out as a bunch of [MODERATED]!!!
And there is no hero to hand, but an emerging handful of pretenders to the role, who are at best promising. Mr McCluskey’s likely choice, Andy Burnham, is low down that list. The former Blairite health secretary, who has renounced the liberal reforms he helped bring, appears lightweight and fecklessly populist.
I have probably hit the limit of quotes for the article. Please read it (for the SNP are called-out as a bunch of [MODERATED]!!!
It was basically a gigantic free bet - but in order for it to have come into play, it required a deeply hung parliament with the tories as largest party.
I wonder, in an alternative history, how a hung parliament would have played out?
Would my bet have come into play?
Free bets are good. They are bets at infinite odds. The only reason it might not have been good would have been if you were tying up lots of capital which could have been deployed for bets with a better chance of winning.
My strategy for the GE was incredibly simple:
1. Bet on the SNP 2. I didn't pretend to know exactly what would happen, so I focused on getting an all-green position on the main market by trading bets early on (I recommended here backing Labour Most Seats in 2012/13 and then backing Tories Most seats later on), and in the past few months by exploiting the difference between the constituency odds and the seat-market odds.
To my mind this was the easiest betting gig to make money on since I started political betting in 2008.
My only mistake was that I laid off some of my SNP position too early.
I came so close on many occasions to laying off some of my SNP constituency bets, I never did though. Frankly heroic reserves of steely resolve by me.
And there is no hero to hand, but an emerging handful of pretenders to the role, who are at best promising. Mr McCluskey’s likely choice, Andy Burnham, is low down that list. The former Blairite health secretary, who has renounced the liberal reforms he helped bring, appears lightweight and fecklessly populist.
I have probably hit the limit of quotes for the article. Please read it (for the SNP are called-out as a bunch of [MODERATED]!!!
It looks like she said the low number of female train drivers was the "national scandal", not TtTE. Perhaps still a bit dramatic, but significantly less loony than what Harry Cole is accusing her of.
It looks like she said the low number of female train drivers was the "national scandal", not TtTE. Perhaps still a bit dramatic, but significantly less loony than what Harry Cole is accusing her of.
Ah I see. I assumed Harry Cole's tweet referred to a Guardian click bait piece on Thomas the Tank Engine several months back that said it was sexist and racist IIRC. Obviously someone else wrote that piece.
I don't do too well on football betting, though I did reasonably on the World Cup.
Any tips?
I tend to do best on draws and also on one or both teams not scoring. Punters are optomists, and the value tends to be here.
It varies game by game really... There are a few angles!
If you have bet 365 or paddy power accounts their ew terms on first goalscorers are pretty handy , some strikers are just a bet every match
Ulloa being one!
A few years ago I was making a living out of it but alas the accounts went
Ulloa tends to score early, but flags later and is easier to mark. FGS is a good call for him, but I am not sure the same is true of all.
Leicester have a solid defence now, only Chelsea have scored against us in the last four games, and that took 45 minutes. I would tip Sunderland to not score at the weekend, possibly not us either, though Sunderland will need to attack as a draw is not much use to them.
I don't do too well on football betting, though I did reasonably on the World Cup.
Any tips?
I tend to do best on draws and also on one or both teams not scoring. Punters are optomists, and the value tends to be here.
It varies game by game really... There are a few angles!
If you have bet 365 or paddy power accounts their ew terms on first goalscorers are pretty handy , some strikers are just a bet every match
Ulloa being one!
A few years ago I was making a living out of it but alas the accounts went
Ulloa tends to score early, but flags later and is easier to mark. FGS is a good call for him, but I am not sure the same is true of all.
Leicester have a solid defence now, only Chelsea have scored against us in the last four games, and that took 45 minutes. I would tip Sunderland to not score at the weekend, possibly not us either, though Sunderland will need to attack as a draw is not much use to them.
Had seleznov and Bacca tonight, you should have asked at 8 o clock!
Until Mr Miliband proves me wrong, it’s hard not to load both barrels and send bullets his way. Mr Miliband decided to address himself to the 2 per cent of the rich and the 8 per cent of the poor with nothing to say to the unsqueezed middle in between. Arrogantly, with conviction but no evidence, he tested his own stupid theories to his party’s destruction. Labour did not get murdered; it committed suicide. The tragedy was horribly familiar, this time in both senses of the word. The Labour party in 2015 became the victim of a ghastly atavistic dispute, the lab rat for Mr Miliband’s experiment in proving that his father, who insisted there was no parliamentary road to socialism, was right all along. The people Labour stands for need a Labour government and he left them with nothing. For vanity and for shame, Ed. So, am I angry about what he did? Hell, yes.
I don't do too well on football betting, though I did reasonably on the World Cup.
Any tips?
I tend to do best on draws and also on one or both teams not scoring. Punters are optomists, and the value tends to be here.
It varies game by game really... There are a few angles!
If you have bet 365 or paddy power accounts their ew terms on first goalscorers are pretty handy , some strikers are just a bet every match
Ulloa being one!
A few years ago I was making a living out of it but alas the accounts went
Ulloa tends to score early, but flags later and is easier to mark. FGS is a good call for him, but I am not sure the same is true of all.
Leicester have a solid defence now, only Chelsea have scored against us in the last four games, and that took 45 minutes. I would tip Sunderland to not score at the weekend, possibly not us either, though Sunderland will need to attack as a draw is not much use to them.
Had seleznov and Bacca tonight, you should have asked at 8 o clock!
Easy to bet in retrospect! Best evidence that timetravel is impossible...
Burnham will be favourite by tomorrow morning at this rate.
CU 3.15 - 3.40 AB 3.40 - 3.55
I'm staying out of the betting for this one.
My single is bet on Burnham (£50 @ 25/1 - thanks HenryG!) - which I'll let ride.
Giving the punting thing a break for a while in general - and i'll probably wean myself off my PB addiction, too. Until the next election/betting event. I'm pretty sure I don't have any outstanding PB wagers, but if anyone thinks otherwise - now is a good time to let me know.
The SNP demonstrated how to pass a leadership over. Top notch job that. I reckon Salmond would have got about 40%, and Scottish Labour would still have around 8 or 9 seats. Sturgeon really finished them off.
And SLAB demonstrate how not to pass on the leadership after what must be a world record defeat for a party leader:
I sadly agree with SeanT, Labour are going to win an election with Burnham or Umunna only if the Tories deliver it on a silver plate and unfortunately that is wholly possible.
I sadly agree with SeanT, Labour are going to win an election with Burnham or Umunna only if the Tories deliver it on a silver plate and unfortunately that is wholly possible.
I presume this has been debated at length, but, really. Is it being fixed, or what?
Wading through a thread is like wading through treacle.... while wearing iron boots, with magnetic heels, on a planetoid made of lodestone.
It was happening very rarely in the past too with some comments as a glitch, somehow it now has become a permanent fixture with all comments. I'm sure it can be fixed.
I don't do too well on football betting, though I did reasonably on the World Cup.
Any tips?
I tend to do best on draws and also on one or both teams not scoring. Punters are optomists, and the value tends to be here.
It varies game by game really... There are a few angles!
If you have bet 365 or paddy power accounts their ew terms on first goalscorers are pretty handy , some strikers are just a bet every match
Ulloa being one!
A few years ago I was making a living out of it but alas the accounts went
Ulloa tends to score early, but flags later and is easier to mark. FGS is a good call for him, but I am not sure the same is true of all.
Leicester have a solid defence now, only Chelsea have scored against us in the last four games, and that took 45 minutes. I would tip Sunderland to not score at the weekend, possibly not us either, though Sunderland will need to attack as a draw is not much use to them.
Had seleznov and Bacca tonight, you should have asked at 8 o clock!
Easy to bet in retrospect! Best evidence that timetravel is impossible...
Oh please
Carlos Bacca * 7.37 Back Yevhen Seleznov * 8.95 Back
I agree, Chuka has a better chance of losing an election than Burnham.
And I think I found a temporary solution to the nesting problem, simply delete the first of the comments inside the blockquotes, but not the first blockquote that has the reply.
I still think there is a chance there is a chance that the left of the PLP will spring a late surprise with a leftish nomination.
Diane Abbott for Glorious Leader. Oh yes.
It's about the only thing that would top the catastrophic decision to give Ed the job. Being Labour, that does not make it an impossibility. Just sit for a minute and imagine it...
Chukka's reputation (at the least outside Labour and for all I know within it) is him being an empty suit, and that's certainly been my impression of him to date - I will be quite interested to see if he actually has some genuine substance now he will be able to set out his own stall as leader and not follow Ed's script.
I sadly agree with SeanT, Labour are going to win an election with Burnham or Umunna only if the Tories deliver it on a silver plate and unfortunately that is wholly possible.
Interesting article on UKPR suggesting it'll be damned hard for Labour to win now:
On level pegging, the Conservatives would have about fifty seats more than Labour. You could argue that that's offset by the SNP being on Labour's side in choosing a government, which is true, but there's a difference between being in office and being in power.
On top of which, we've the boundary review to come. An earlier UKPR article suggested that had the election been held on the boundaries proposed by the Commission, the Tories would have had a majority of 44 (and the Lib Dems reduced to four seats). While the proposals aren't guaranteed to go through this time either, they're far more likely than it would have been under a hung parliament.
Labour needs a new Blair, *and* for the Greens and UKIP to implode.
I still think there is a chance there is a chance that the left of the PLP will spring a late surprise with a leftish nomination.
Diane Abbott for Glorious Leader. Oh yes.
Her involvement in the leadership contest last time felt like an embarrassment. Putting herself forward? Sure, why the hell not. But only getting through to the contest proper thanks to someone standing aside for her purely so a woman would be in the last 5? That looks really weak.
On level pegging, the Conservatives would have about fifty seats more than Labour. You could argue that that's offset by the SNP being on Labour's side in choosing a government, which is true, but there's a difference between being in office and being in power.
On top of which, we've the boundary review to come. An earlier UKPR article suggested that had the election been held on the boundaries proposed by the Commission, the Tories would have had a majority of 44 (and the Lib Dems reduced to four seats). While the proposals aren't guaranteed to go through this time either, they're far more likely than it would have been under a hung parliament.
Labour needs a new Blair, *and* for the Greens and UKIP to implode.
True, Labour needs to be 13% ahead of the Tories just to get a majority, and 4% ahead to be largest party. Which means that only if the events of the 90's continue to replay themselves, as they have so far*, will Labour get a majority.
*One of the few things that Marx was correct about was that history tends to repeat itself first as a tragedy and then as a farce.
That is one of my fears, that Umunna or Burnham end up being PM.
Labour left MPs collecting signatures for anti-austerity letter. New intake most left-leaning for a long time.
Labour has a death wish.
I think Burnham is huge value and will be odds on before long.
He'll breeze through the MP stage and get lots of endorsements.
Then there's a membership that's trending leftwards, and all these one-member-one-vote supporters that the unions are recruiting very actively. Nobody knows what the final electorate will look like -- but it wouldn't shock me if the unions end up counting for more than the direct members.
The other candidates are competing for the same supporters. There are already far too many of them -- presumably one of Creagh and Kendall will endorse the other eventually, but all this makes Burnham seem still more in the driving seat.
It is AV though; so the sisters could wind up on top.
Leave PBers be, foxinsoxuk. Right now, the 1000 year Tory Reich is nailed on is PB world.
Labour left MPs collecting signatures for anti-austerity letter. New intake most left-leaning for a long time.
Labour has a death wish.
I think Burnham is huge value and will be odds on before long.
He'll breeze through the MP stage and get lots of endorsements.
Then there's a membership that's trending leftwards, and all these one-member-one-vote supporters that the unions are recruiting very actively. Nobody knows what the final electorate will look like -- but it wouldn't shock me if the unions end up counting for more than the direct members.
The other candidates are competing for the same supporters. There are already far too many of them -- presumably one of Creagh and Kendall will endorse the other eventually, but all this makes Burnham seem still more in the driving seat.
It is AV though; so the sisters could wind up on top.
Leave PBers be, foxinsoxuk. Right now, the 1000 year Tory Reich is nailed on is PB world.
There's a very positive article George Osborne in the Guardian. I wonder whether Osborne would like to remain as Chancellor under whoever becomes the next Conservative leader and PM.
I've sometimes derided Osborne as continuity Brown in respect of some of his macro economics and political gimmicks with the budget. Yet the giving away of power from the Treasury to the north, and the apparent interest in the job for its own sake, rather than as a power base from which to wrest the leadership, are rather marked contrasts.
I think Osborne may be seen as a far more significant figure than Cameron in future years, perhaps particularly if he remains as Chancellor.
I get so confused with these things. I understand the idea that Labour were 'Tory-lite' and that that angers their traditional supporters, but I don't understand how that translates into the Tories winning while keeping the 'mustn't move to the centre' message. People staying home in anger at Labour not being Left enough wouldn't explain the margin of victory, surely, so what they are saying is 'Labour were not Left enough for their supporters, so a significant number of those supporters voted Tory instead', which doesn't make any sense.
Chukka's reputation (at the least outside Labour and for all I know within it) is him being an empty suit, and that's certainly been my impression of him to date - I will be quite interested to see if he actually has some genuine substance now he will be able to set out his own stall as leader and not follow Ed's script.
Everyone will bury him, me first. And here is my first shovel on Umunna's head, behold Labour's next leader:
"One moment, he was mixing with what he called ‘a cool international crowd’ at Kensington’s ‘trash free’ Baglioni Hotel. The next, he was propping up the Swarovski crystal bar of the British Luxury Club, where it costs £350 to sit at one of the white leather ‘VIP tables’. In the summer, the one-time nightclub DJ would adjourn to the Spanish party island of Ibiza, where he enjoyed ‘chilling on a beach or by the pool’ of a £1 million, six-bedroom villa called The White House. In winter, it was off to Miami, with its white sand beaches and vibrant dance music scene. ‘Is it just me, or is there a serious lack of cool places to go in central London at the weekends?’ asked ‘Harrison’ of his fellow party animals in one of his posts on the website between 2006 and 2008. ‘Most of the West End haunts seem to be full of trash and C-List wannabes."
He's the only one capable to convince me that the LD are members of the human race and vote for them again.
Comments
How about developing some attractive policies that actually hang together in some positive and thematic way?
Thank you for sorting out our bet and an even bigger thank you for the kindness of gift aiding it
SR
1. Piers Morgan
2. Russell Brand
3. Jeremy Beadle (obs.)
A mature woman
Working class
Seems normal, not hectoring
From the Midlands
Represents a Northern seat.
A Celt (Irish heritage). Might have the best chance of winning back something in Scotland.
That smile...
I've never voted Labour in my life, but she intrigues me like no other candidate, and I would definitely give her a hearing.
But Steve Coogan or Eddie Izzard are contenders too.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cPCnFPGiWyI
Noone else comes close
This may well result in one of the more central, in Labour party terms, women winning rather than Burnham or Umunna who at this point seem to be at the 2 opposite sides of the party.
If I had to guess I think that Cooper is the most likely of the 3 to benefit from this but due to the number of union members who may end up voting I think that Burnham has to be favourite atm.
Wow, you've surprised me there. Congratulations are in order.
Do you mind me asking if your book was skewed towards the tories before the exit poll?
I noticed the SPIN spread after the 10pm readjustment nudged labour's way - which I took to mean you were taking hefty bets from the *I don't believe it!* punters. I mostly stayed out of the spreads this time, but FWIW, I did paper trade the result and would have sold the tory supremacy @ 20 seats. That would have been a disaster
Cheers, disappointed its all over though to be honest but we have got plans to start covering more politics going forward, fingers crossed that we actually do.
We started taking big business on clients selling tory seats around 4-5pm-i think bf drifted to around 1.30 Tory most seats around this time. Surprisingly though, we took very little in terms of SNP buyers pre-exit poll despite our inviting buy price as we were looking to lay abit off as we were buyers of SNP seats.
It was quite hectic after the exit poll, i think we started taking around a bet a second in at one point, and in the end, we were surprised ourselves that we were in a position that we were cheering on the Tories to win seats over UKIP, as has been alluded to on here by some, we were huge buyers of UKIP seats.
David Coburn MEP @DavidCoburnUKip
Nigel Farage is the greatest man this country has produced since Churchill Enough said UKIP
Irvine Welsh @IrvineWelsh 2 hrs2 hours ago
You have to be shagging him - his own Missus wouldn't even make that claim.
David Cobum MEP @DCobumUKIP 34 mins34 minutes ago
@IrvineWelsh bawdeep, sweetie. Bawdeep
Put some more bromide in Rod's tea please nurse!
Labour left MPs collecting signatures for anti-austerity letter. New intake most left-leaning for a long time.
Labour has a death wish.
It's perhaps a bit like the Tories in the 2000s where the policies individually poll well but fail to inspire an electorate who don't pay much attention but still want to feel understood and somehow inspired and people projected their dislikes on to them. It makes it in many ways a more complex task than saying 'ditch the policies', and it makes the leader important. That's not to say the policies won't be ditched - they'd have to be anyway as by 2020 we'll be in a totally different political climate anyway against a different Tory leader, but right now the most important thing for Labour is to pick a leader and by extension top team with basic appeal and with the tactical savvy to change perceptions of the party and get the calls on policy right when they actually matter.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4418988.stm
Perhaps she understands profit motive, risk taking and their significance unlike the others.
Combine that with a membership mainly composed of union shills and it should be fun to be a spectator outside of Labour.
He'll breeze through the MP stage and get lots of endorsements.
Then there's a membership that's trending leftwards, and all these one-member-one-vote supporters that the unions are recruiting very actively. Nobody knows what the final electorate will look like -- but it wouldn't shock me if the unions end up counting for more than the direct members.
The other candidates are competing for the same supporters. There are already far too many of them -- presumably one of Creagh and Kendall will endorse the other eventually, but all this makes Burnham seem still more in the driving seat.
Have any of them got it? I mean really got what it takes?
Umunna - the Man you love to hate
Burnham - Yesterday's mascara man
Cooper - Harman's Daughter, with Balls
Kendall - bigged up purely on the back of a softball interview with Andrew Neil
Tristram - can Ed come back, please?
Creagh - the most interesting one of the lot, by far.
I do keep a P/L spreadsheet, which, believe it or not, is currently showing a 127% return (that is, £27 back for every £100 invested) - in practise not actually that much because I don't stake more than I can ever afford to lose (see earlier rules).
It'd be higher than that if I took out my GE2015 (and last year's World Cup) betting, both of which were a dead loss (and interestingly, where I didn't bet with my gut but followed the polls and the pundits). I make my dough betting on cycling. Some incredible value there, if you do your homework - mostly because the bookies can't handicap it well enough, especially the smaller races.
Labour: The party for the 'Not Very Bright'.
:tumbleweed:
#indentured-voter-off-reservation
THIS IS THE NEWS.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=faAg3YXpmBI
"I used to wear two hearing aids."
Am intrigued to read that she lectured in Entrepreneurship, given she studied Languages, but Labour need to understand the significance of why people go into business, and why they might not be keen on strident calls for state intervention, taxes, controls, quotas, & more regulation.
Talking to a core vote is electoral suicide, the trick is to broaden the appeal, something Miiband failed to do.
She's 'pleasant'. A greatly under-rated quality.
Cameron has it. So does Clegg. So is Sturgeon.
Miliband never did. Nor does Farage and nor does Salmond.
Ideologues and extremes are pretty poisonous.
http://www.gosh.nhs.uk/medical-information/procedures-and-treatments/repair-middle-ear
Our most recent polling shows the largest share of Labour lost 2010 votes in the North and Midlands went to UKIP:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-32742516
Seemingly Jim is facing a NEC meeting on Saturday, how much longer is this going to go on?
© The Economist, 2015 I have probably hit the limit of quotes for the article. Please read it (for the SNP are called-out as a bunch of [MODERATED]!!!
http://survation.com/how-did-ukips-rise-affect-the-labconlib-dem-seats-position/
I am a ridiculous loser on political betting
2008 £1k@5/4 Livingstone to be mayor
2010 £50@5/2 David Miliband to be Labour leader
2015 £1500 on Ukip seat betting
£750 on Ukip to get over 2,3 and 5 seats
If you took out those ones id be about £500 up!
Which article?
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/598879646508277760
Sorry,
Long day!
http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21651200-british-voters-have-showed-crushing-disdain-labour-party-it-faces-painful
I don't do too well on football betting, though I did reasonably on the World Cup.
Any tips?
I tend to do best on draws and also on one or both teams not scoring. Punters are optomists, and the value tends to be here.
Long day!
http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21651200-british-voters-have-showed-crushing-disdain-labour-party-it-faces-painful
Thanks!
Carswell for the win...
I believe Creagh is going to launch her campaign in the Mail tomorrow....
If you have bet 365 or paddy power accounts their ew terms on first goalscorers are pretty handy , some strikers are just a bet every match
Ulloa being one!
A few years ago I was making a living out of it but alas the accounts went
Ed Miliband said (in earnest) barely six weeks ago that he wanted the next James Bond to be a woman.
These people live on a different planet.
Leicester have a solid defence now, only Chelsea have scored against us in the last four games, and that took 45 minutes. I would tip Sunderland to not score at the weekend, possibly not us either, though Sunderland will need to attack as a draw is not much use to them.
CU 3.15 - 3.40
AB 3.40 - 3.55
My single is bet on Burnham (£50 @ 25/1 - thanks HenryG!) - which I'll let ride.
Giving the punting thing a break for a while in general - and i'll probably wean myself off my PB addiction, too. Until the next election/betting event. I'm pretty sure I don't have any outstanding PB wagers, but if anyone thinks otherwise - now is a good time to let me know.
None of the other candidates can possibly win a GE
She's AVE IT's tip for the top!
#georgeworriedin2020
#watchoutborismarysabout
#youmaynotwintheelectiontheresa
@maitlis: And Len McClusky tells me who was to blame for labour s election failure. #newsnight
@DailyMirror: .@LucyMPowell: How I rallied Ed over exit poll, why Cameron beat us, how Labour should rebuild http://t.co/Q3IJ4l0Ddt http://t.co/c2rwZ3FJAC
I'm sure it can be fixed.
Oh please
Carlos Bacca * 7.37 Back
Yevhen Seleznov * 8.95 Back
And I think I found a temporary solution to the nesting problem, simply delete the first of the comments inside the blockquotes, but not the first blockquote that has the reply.
It's about the only thing that would top the catastrophic decision to give Ed the job. Being Labour, that does not make it an impossibility. Just sit for a minute and imagine it...
@JournoStephen: One of the funniest everyone-I-know-hates-the-Tories-how-come-they-won post-election crack-ups https://t.co/ZJdf7pqqsN
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9418
On level pegging, the Conservatives would have about fifty seats more than Labour. You could argue that that's offset by the SNP being on Labour's side in choosing a government, which is true, but there's a difference between being in office and being in power.
On top of which, we've the boundary review to come. An earlier UKPR article suggested that had the election been held on the boundaries proposed by the Commission, the Tories would have had a majority of 44 (and the Lib Dems reduced to four seats). While the proposals aren't guaranteed to go through this time either, they're far more likely than it would have been under a hung parliament.
Labour needs a new Blair, *and* for the Greens and UKIP to implode.
Burnham 394
Kendall 375
Alan Johnson 137
Cooper 137
Murphy 85
Other & (Creagh) 52
Hunt 42
Chuka 19
David Miliband -79
Creasy -155
Jarvis -236
At least they won't have that problem this time.
You need to be more than just pleasant.
Which means that only if the events of the 90's continue to replay themselves, as they have so far*, will Labour get a majority.
*One of the few things that Marx was correct about was that history tends to repeat itself first as a tragedy and then as a farce.
That is one of my fears, that Umunna or Burnham end up being PM.
I've sometimes derided Osborne as continuity Brown in respect of some of his macro economics and political gimmicks with the budget. Yet the giving away of power from the Treasury to the north, and the apparent interest in the job for its own sake, rather than as a power base from which to wrest the leadership, are rather marked contrasts.
I think Osborne may be seen as a far more significant figure than Cameron in future years, perhaps particularly if he remains as Chancellor.
new thread
And here is my first shovel on Umunna's head, behold Labour's next leader:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2308381/Voters-dismissed-trash-1m-Ibiza-villa-called-White-House-credibility-crisis-threatening-Labours-Obama-Chuka-Umunna.html
"One moment, he was mixing with what he called ‘a cool international crowd’ at Kensington’s ‘trash free’ Baglioni Hotel. The next, he was propping up the Swarovski crystal bar of the British Luxury Club, where it costs £350 to sit at one of the white leather ‘VIP tables’.
In the summer, the one-time nightclub DJ would adjourn to the Spanish party island of Ibiza, where he enjoyed ‘chilling on a beach or by the pool’ of a £1 million, six-bedroom villa called The White House. In winter, it was off to Miami, with its white sand beaches and vibrant dance music scene.
‘Is it just me, or is there a serious lack of cool places to go in central London at the weekends?’ asked ‘Harrison’ of his fellow party animals in one of his posts on the website between 2006 and 2008. ‘Most of the West End haunts seem to be full of trash and C-List wannabes."
He's the only one capable to convince me that the LD are members of the human race and vote for them again.