Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » David Herdson: The election remains far from a foregone con

1235

Comments

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712
    Sean_F said:

    O/T , but I see BES are saying Labour lead the Conservatives 47/23 among ethnic minority voters, compared to 68/16 in 2010. That could help Gavin Barwell, Angie Bray, and Bob Blackman.

    Why would ethnic minorities have swung away from Labour so sharply?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,929
    Keeping things on thread I have to say that whilst I won't be voting for Labour Tory or Lib Dem I would vote for each in certain circumstances. If I lived in a Labour/Tory marginal I'd probably vote Labour (with one exception which I'll come to) as I would if I lived in Sheffield Hallam. If I lived in Yeovil I would vote Tory as I would if I lived in Morley and Outwood. It seems to me that getting rid of bad influences inside a party are well worth the cost of an extra Tory MP. I suppose I'd even vote for the SNP if I lived in Inverness.

    There's far too much cynicism attached to tactical voting, as if it's all a matter of spite. I genuinely believe tactical voting can be done in the name of the national interest and it's those who insist on voting for party out of (tribal?) principle who've got it wrong.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Dr. Prasannan, Daenerys.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,477

    Daniel said:

    IOS said:

    Shame for Labour that the Royal baby will take the air war out of the game till tuesday. We have been consistently beating the Tories at it for a while now.

    Labour are planning today to be out income equality and the cost of living (which worries many voters). None of it will get coverage, now.
    That's possibly no bad thing for Labour, income equality tends to be taking money from people like me and giving it to people who are actually better off, but seen as more deserving.
    Oh come on, John, how many could be more deserving than you?

    Btw, ground troops locally are reporting a Tory retreat from Hampstead. Those who bet on the millionaires tax making a difference should get their chestnuts out of the fire quick.

    Tulip will bloom on May 7th.
    Finchley will be a closer result than Hampstead.

    Those Conservative activists need to direct their activities about two miles northward.

    They'll find no shortage of 'millionaires mansions' on Bishops Avenue.

    They might not find many voters in them though.
    Lol! Agreed, Richard. You put it very well.

    The mental image of somebody trying to canvass in Bishops Ave is hilarious. I swear some of those houses have machine gun turrets to discourage casual callers.
    Once, many years ago, what was then S. Rhodesia declared it’s independence under a white minority government. The late Jeremy Thorpe suggested bombing the insurgents, as they were seen by most people, although not the Tory Right.

    Shortly afterwards, canvassing one of the blues areas of the town where I lived on behalf of the Liberals I was several times "shown off" the premises for supporting “that bomber”!

    And yes, it was “bomber”!
    Lol!

    People who have never canvassed have never lived.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546
    SMukesh said:

    AndyJS said:

    The Eastern region has been swinging away from Labour relative to the rest of the country since the 1950s. If that pattern continues they might struggle to win seats like Waveney, Ipswich, Stevenage, Norwich North, Bedford.

    Perhaps you should show a bit more attention to the Ashcroft polls:

    It has Labour with massive leads in Bedford,Ipswich,Norwich South,Waveney,leads in Stevenage,Peterborough,Norwich North and narrowing the gap in Great Yarmouth and Thurrock from last year and a 3 way battle in Watford.
    Several of those polls are from last year, at a time when Labour was 5% ahead of the Conservatives.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    dr_spyn said:

    Sky News Newsdesk ‏@SkyNewsBreak 8s8 seconds ago
    The Duchess of Cambridge has given birth to a girl weighing 8lbs 3oz #RoyalBaby

    Diana or Elizabeth?
    Victoria?
    Alice
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,803
    surbiton said:

    taffys said:

    Have Labour ever pulled off a surprise result?

    Good question.

    1945 ?
    February 1974. It was not expected. After all, Heath called the election.
    You could say that Labour did better than expected in 2010.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    dr_spyn said:

    Sky News Newsdesk ‏@SkyNewsBreak 8s8 seconds ago
    The Duchess of Cambridge has given birth to a girl weighing 8lbs 3oz #RoyalBaby

    Diana or Elizabeth?
    Victoria?
    Alice
    Who the ... is Alice?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Bennett posing on a bloody rickshaw, what an inspiring future.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    FFS why has BBC1 been switched to news. When will the BBC learn that they now have a rolling news channel for anyone interested in new benefits scroungers.

    On such a thought, I remember when Nicholas Witchell was a journalist rather than a sycophant. Do you think he chose the job or it was some sort of punishment?
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited May 2015
    Boo, I was betting on a boy.

    Anyway, now for the name. Princess......

    http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=115372337&ex=1&origin=MRL
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    Sean_F said:

    O/T , but I see BES are saying Labour lead the Conservatives 47/23 among ethnic minority voters, compared to 68/16 in 2010. That could help Gavin Barwell, Angie Bray, and Bob Blackman.

    Why would ethnic minorities have swung away from Labour so sharply?
    Also, where have the other 30% gone?
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    Sean_F said:

    SMukesh said:

    AndyJS said:

    The Eastern region has been swinging away from Labour relative to the rest of the country since the 1950s. If that pattern continues they might struggle to win seats like Waveney, Ipswich, Stevenage, Norwich North, Bedford.

    Perhaps you should show a bit more attention to the Ashcroft polls:

    It has Labour with massive leads in Bedford,Ipswich,Norwich South,Waveney,leads in Stevenage,Peterborough,Norwich North and narrowing the gap in Great Yarmouth and Thurrock from last year and a 3 way battle in Watford.
    Several of those polls are from last year, at a time when Labour was 5% ahead of the Conservatives.
    Ashcroft stops polling if he thinks the result is a foregone one.

    In Great Yarmouth and Thurrock,Labour have increased their share of vote from last year.

    In Norwich North,they have increased their vote from February.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''Btw, ground troops locally are reporting a Tory retreat from Hampstead. Those who bet on the millionaires tax making a difference should get their chestnuts out of the fire quick.''

    Tell you what, if I had a tenner for every seat the tories had potentially 'retreated from' or 'given up in' in the last few days...
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,477

    Keeping things on thread I have to say that whilst I won't be voting for Labour Tory or Lib Dem I would vote for each in certain circumstances. If I lived in a Labour/Tory marginal I'd probably vote Labour (with one exception which I'll come to) as I would if I lived in Sheffield Hallam. If I lived in Yeovil I would vote Tory as I would if I lived in Morley and Outwood. It seems to me that getting rid of bad influences inside a party are well worth the cost of an extra Tory MP. I suppose I'd even vote for the SNP if I lived in Inverness.

    There's far too much cynicism attached to tactical voting, as if it's all a matter of spite. I genuinely believe tactical voting can be done in the name of the national interest and it's those who insist on voting for party out of (tribal?) principle who've got it wrong.

    That's a nice post, Frank.

    There are certainly a few MPs I would vote for regardless of Party (Ken Clarke, Oliver Letwin and Simon Hughes would top the list) and some I would not vote for no matter what (George Galloway is the obvious and I hope uncontroversial example.)

    I'd follow your example in M&O, and your principle generally.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    What would be the rate of pay for someone who pulls a rickshaw..terms and conditions..pension ..sick pay/..
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712
    Just on the train going through Yeovil. From what I see from the window, there does seem to be a bit of a Tory / LD face-off here. I've seen a couple of fields with yellow diamonds on one side of the road, and blue squares on the other.

    It really is beautiful down here. Pure green pristine unspoilt English countryside. Lovely.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Just on the train going through Yeovil. From what I see from the window, there does seem to be a bit of a Tory / LD face-off here. I've seen a couple of fields with yellow diamonds on one side of the road, and blue squares on the other.

    It really is beautiful down here. Pure green pristine unspoilt English countryside. Lovely.

    Let's build some houses !
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,721
    edited May 2015

    surbiton said:

    taffys said:

    Have Labour ever pulled off a surprise result?

    Good question.

    1945 ?
    February 1974. It was not expected. After all, Heath called the election.
    You could say that Labour did better than expected in 2010.
    Attlee did not expect to win in 1945. At least, not by such a margin. Someone’s diary records that on the morning when all, the results were declared ..... there was a delay in counting the postal, servicemen’s, votes ...... the subject wasn’t even discussed at breakfast in the Attlee household.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,477
    Pong said:

    Boo, I was betting on a boy.

    Anyway, now for the name. Princess......

    http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=115372337&ex=1&origin=MRL

    Pong, that is absolutely dreadful. They more or less told everybody ages ago.

    Pay attention.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Keeping things on thread I have to say that whilst I won't be voting for Labour Tory or Lib Dem I would vote for each in certain circumstances. If I lived in a Labour/Tory marginal I'd probably vote Labour (with one exception which I'll come to) as I would if I lived in Sheffield Hallam. If I lived in Yeovil I would vote Tory as I would if I lived in Morley and Outwood. It seems to me that getting rid of bad influences inside a party are well worth the cost of an extra Tory MP. I suppose I'd even vote for the SNP if I lived in Inverness.

    There's far too much cynicism attached to tactical voting, as if it's all a matter of spite. I genuinely believe tactical voting can be done in the name of the national interest and it's those who insist on voting for party out of (tribal?) principle who've got it wrong.

    That's a nice post, Frank.

    There are certainly a few MPs I would vote for regardless of Party (Ken Clarke, Oliver Letwin and Simon Hughes would top the list) and some I would not vote for no matter what (George Galloway is the obvious and I hope uncontroversial example.)

    I'd follow your example in M&O, and your principle generally.
    Gorgeous George who has never touched a drop of alcohol !
  • Steven_WhaleySteven_Whaley Posts: 313

    Just on the train going through Yeovil. From what I see from the window, there does seem to be a bit of a Tory / LD face-off here. I've seen a couple of fields with yellow diamonds on one side of the road, and blue squares on the other.

    It really is beautiful down here. Pure green pristine unspoilt English countryside. Lovely.

    Sounds like the yellow diamonds and blue squares are spoiling it somewhat...

  • franklynfranklyn Posts: 322
    What odds would anyone give that the Conservatives in Scotland win as many seats or more than the LibDems? (including the possibility of none for either). Likewise what odds that Scottish Labour win as many or fewer than Scottish Cons plus Scottish Lib Dem (again including the possibility of both getting none)

    Finally any takers for my previous offer of a charity bet that SNP get 57 or fewer seats; £50 charity bet (one bet only). loser to pay to the charity of the winner's choice; UK wide charities and non religious (or political ones). Put your money where your rhetoric is, and for a good cause.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,234
    So which granny will the baby take after - trolley dolly or nanny?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,721

    What would be the rate of pay for someone who pulls a rickshaw..terms and conditions..pension ..sick pay/..

    ZHC?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300

    What would be the rate of pay for someone who pulls a rickshaw..terms and conditions..pension ..sick pay/..

    Given that Darren Hall the Green PPC is an engineer, it shows a lack of vision, just a backward look at very old technology. So much for CAD, CAM, 3D printing and work at GKN, Airbus, Rolls Royce et al. Rickshaws...bloody rickshaws...we don't need bloody rickshaws.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546
    SMukesh said:

    Sean_F said:

    SMukesh said:

    AndyJS said:

    The Eastern region has been swinging away from Labour relative to the rest of the country since the 1950s. If that pattern continues they might struggle to win seats like Waveney, Ipswich, Stevenage, Norwich North, Bedford.

    Perhaps you should show a bit more attention to the Ashcroft polls:

    It has Labour with massive leads in Bedford,Ipswich,Norwich South,Waveney,leads in Stevenage,Peterborough,Norwich North and narrowing the gap in Great Yarmouth and Thurrock from last year and a 3 way battle in Watford.
    Several of those polls are from last year, at a time when Labour was 5% ahead of the Conservatives.
    Ashcroft stops polling if he thinks the result is a foregone one.

    In Great Yarmouth and Thurrock,Labour have increased their share of vote from last year.

    In Norwich North,they have increased their vote from February.
    None of Ipswich, Bedford, Stevenage, or Waveney are foregone conclusions, taking into account the overall support for the parties when they were last polled.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    surbiton said:

    taffys said:

    Have Labour ever pulled off a surprise result?

    Good question.

    1945 ?
    February 1974. It was not expected. After all, Heath called the election.
    You could say that Labour did better than expected in 2010.
    Better than expected by SPIN, Betfair, PB Tories.......
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    What would be the rate of pay for someone who pulls a rickshaw..terms and conditions..pension ..sick pay/..

    Minimum wage, of course. But they would laugh at you if you said that. Do you think the Tourist rickshaw pullers earn only that ?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,657
    Nigel Farage on learning of the royal birth of a girl at 8lbs 3ozs sent his congratulations to the royal couple and observed it is nice to 'revert to imperial measurements'.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    franklyn said:

    What odds would anyone give that the Conservatives in Scotland win as many seats or more than the LibDems? (including the possibility of none for either). Likewise what odds that Scottish Labour win as many or fewer than Scottish Cons plus Scottish Lib Dem (again including the possibility of both getting none)

    Finally any takers for my previous offer of a charity bet that SNP get 57 or fewer seats; £50 charity bet (one bet only). loser to pay to the charity of the winner's choice; UK wide charities and non religious (or political ones). Put your money where your rhetoric is, and for a good cause.

    Con-vs-LD with Con winning on a tie would be Odds on I'd say.

    Your charity bet is still awful value at evens.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    OT: Are the media reluctant to use the obvious word in describing Trott facing a fast short delivery ?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546

    Dr. Prasannan, Daenerys.

    Cersei.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    @JoeTwyman: It's a girl! But has anyone stopped to wish Alan Titchmarsh a happy birthday too? Both equally likely to have impact on #GE2015 result.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-32562117

    "The name of the baby will be"

    Princess......

    "announced in due course"

    Well, I wasn't expecting that.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    DO NOT POST COMMENTS OR COPY TWEETS HERE ABOUT SPECIFIC POLLSTERS THAT COULD BE DEFAMATORY

    if you have done that or have quotes another post then delete your comments ASAP
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    Sean_F said:

    SMukesh said:

    Sean_F said:

    SMukesh said:

    AndyJS said:

    The Eastern region has been swinging away from Labour relative to the rest of the country since the 1950s. If that pattern continues they might struggle to win seats like Waveney, Ipswich, Stevenage, Norwich North, Bedford.

    Perhaps you should show a bit more attention to the Ashcroft polls:

    It has Labour with massive leads in Bedford,Ipswich,Norwich South,Waveney,leads in Stevenage,Peterborough,Norwich North and narrowing the gap in Great Yarmouth and Thurrock from last year and a 3 way battle in Watford.
    Several of those polls are from last year, at a time when Labour was 5% ahead of the Conservatives.
    Ashcroft stops polling if he thinks the result is a foregone one.

    In Great Yarmouth and Thurrock,Labour have increased their share of vote from last year.

    In Norwich North,they have increased their vote from February.
    None of Ipswich, Bedford, Stevenage, or Waveney are foregone conclusions, taking into account the overall support for the parties when they were last polled.
    For Ashcroft it was and he`s the one coughing up.

    And by your logic,Labour should be further behind in Great Yarmouth and Thurrock from last year but the polling shows they have narrowed the gap.And increased their lead in Norwich North from February when the national polls have turned from narrow Lab leads to a dead heat.
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    Not sure whether Mike is referring to my mention of Lord Ashcroft polls though can`t see what`s defamatory about them.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546
    SMukesh said:

    Sean_F said:

    SMukesh said:

    Sean_F said:

    SMukesh said:

    AndyJS said:

    The Eastern region has been swinging away from Labour relative to the rest of the country since the 1950s. If that pattern continues they might struggle to win seats like Waveney, Ipswich, Stevenage, Norwich North, Bedford.

    Perhaps you should show a bit more attention to the Ashcroft polls:

    It has Labour with massive leads in Bedford,Ipswich,Norwich South,Waveney,leads in Stevenage,Peterborough,Norwich North and narrowing the gap in Great Yarmouth and Thurrock from last year and a 3 way battle in Watford.
    Several of those polls are from last year, at a time when Labour was 5% ahead of the Conservatives.
    Ashcroft stops polling if he thinks the result is a foregone one.

    In Great Yarmouth and Thurrock,Labour have increased their share of vote from last year.

    In Norwich North,they have increased their vote from February.
    None of Ipswich, Bedford, Stevenage, or Waveney are foregone conclusions, taking into account the overall support for the parties when they were last polled.
    For Ashcroft it was and he`s the one coughing up.

    And by your logic,Labour should be further behind in Great Yarmouth and Thurrock from last year but the polling shows they have narrowed the gap.And increased their lead in Norwich North from February when the national polls have turned from narrow Lab leads to a dead heat.
    Individual seats obviously move differently. And any constituency poll has a margin of error.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,516

    It's a girl :)

    So's Andy Burnham
  • ItwasriggedItwasrigged Posts: 154
    TV off now! Witchell always has that get me the eff out of here look about him. Glad I saved those Game of Thrones DVDs now.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    SMukesh said:

    Not sure whether Mike is referring to my mention of Lord Ashcroft polls though can`t see what`s defamatory about them.

    I am referring to a Dan Hodges Tweet about a pollster.

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Lolz

    Nigel Farage on learning of the royal birth of a girl at 8lbs 3ozs sent his congratulations to the royal couple and observed it is nice to 'revert to imperial measurements'.

  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    Since it's a girl, my favourite name for an election week baby, Katrina, is still an option.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,516
    Dair said:

    FFS why has BBC1 been switched to news. When will the BBC learn that they now have a rolling news channel for anyone interested in new benefits scroungers.

    On such a thought, I remember when Nicholas Witchell was a journalist rather than a sycophant. Do you think he chose the job or it was some sort of punishment?

    I remember when Nicholas Witchell was a journalist rather than a sycophant

    from a bloke who dry humps Alex Salmond's leg daily on here, that's quite funny.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,395
    Alistair said:

    franklyn said:

    What odds would anyone give that the Conservatives in Scotland win as many seats or more than the LibDems? (including the possibility of none for either). Likewise what odds that Scottish Labour win as many or fewer than Scottish Cons plus Scottish Lib Dem (again including the possibility of both getting none)

    Finally any takers for my previous offer of a charity bet that SNP get 57 or fewer seats; £50 charity bet (one bet only). loser to pay to the charity of the winner's choice; UK wide charities and non religious (or political ones). Put your money where your rhetoric is, and for a good cause.

    Con-vs-LD with Con winning on a tie would be Odds on I'd say.

    Your charity bet is still awful value at evens.
    Indeed. He's ignored more than one reasoned rebuttal of that bet - which is a shame as if he has some genuine logic it would have been interesting to see it.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    MikeK said:

    "Why has such a consensus developed? Much of it is surely due to the monotony of the YouGov and Populus poll results, the most frequent pollsters and also the most stable in output. The result is that that each additional poll reinforces confidence that they must be right and hence gives an impression of where the election’s heading. In a similar vein, if everyone interprets those polls in the same way then ‘most likely’ tends towards the apparently inevitable simply by reaffirmation.

    What you are really saying David is that the polls are distorting the true picture and leading the comentariat, especially where the new MINOR parties are concerned. Which is what I have been saying for months.

    @MikeK

    How come insurgent parties in Europe have all been overstated by internet pollsters? What makes UKIP different?
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,477
    Grandiose said:

    Since it's a girl, my favourite name for an election week baby, Katrina, is still an option.

    Elektra?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    SMukesh said:

    Sean_F said:

    SMukesh said:

    Sean_F said:

    SMukesh said:

    AndyJS said:

    The Eastern region has been swinging away from Labour relative to the rest of the country since the 1950s. If that pattern continues they might struggle to win seats like Waveney, Ipswich, Stevenage, Norwich North, Bedford.

    Perhaps you should show a bit more attention to the Ashcroft polls:

    It has Labour with massive leads in Bedford,Ipswich,Norwich South,Waveney,leads in Stevenage,Peterborough,Norwich North and narrowing the gap in Great Yarmouth and Thurrock from last year and a 3 way battle in Watford.
    Several of those polls are from last year, at a time when Labour was 5% ahead of the Conservatives.
    Ashcroft stops polling if he thinks the result is a foregone one.

    In Great Yarmouth and Thurrock,Labour have increased their share of vote from last year.

    In Norwich North,they have increased their vote from February.
    None of Ipswich, Bedford, Stevenage, or Waveney are foregone conclusions, taking into account the overall support for the parties when they were last polled.
    For Ashcroft it was and he`s the one coughing up.

    And by your logic,Labour should be further behind in Great Yarmouth and Thurrock from last year but the polling shows they have narrowed the gap.And increased their lead in Norwich North from February when the national polls have turned from narrow Lab leads to a dead heat.
    Labour will win Norwich North, but not Yarmouth. They will win Waveney, but not Peterborough and they will not win Thurrock. Ipswich is a toss up.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I've lost track of which bookies I have put all my GE15 bets on, bugger.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,313
    rcs1000 said:

    MikeK said:

    "Why has such a consensus developed? Much of it is surely due to the monotony of the YouGov and Populus poll results, the most frequent pollsters and also the most stable in output. The result is that that each additional poll reinforces confidence that they must be right and hence gives an impression of where the election’s heading. In a similar vein, if everyone interprets those polls in the same way then ‘most likely’ tends towards the apparently inevitable simply by reaffirmation.

    What you are really saying David is that the polls are distorting the true picture and leading the comentariat, especially where the new MINOR parties are concerned. Which is what I have been saying for months.

    @MikeK

    How come insurgent parties in Europe have all been overstated by internet pollsters? What makes UKIP different?
    We don't know that they are yet, until next Friday.

  • franklynfranklyn Posts: 322
    Carnyx said:

    Alistair said:

    franklyn said:

    What odds would anyone give that the Conservatives in Scotland win as many seats or more than the LibDems? (including the possibility of none for either). Likewise what odds that Scottish Labour win as many or fewer than Scottish Cons plus Scottish Lib Dem (again including the possibility of both getting none)

    Finally any takers for my previous offer of a charity bet that SNP get 57 or fewer seats; £50 charity bet (one bet only). loser to pay to the charity of the winner's choice; UK wide charities and non religious (or political ones). Put your money where your rhetoric is, and for a good cause.

    Con-vs-LD with Con winning on a tie would be Odds on I'd say.

    Your charity bet is still awful value at evens.
    Indeed. He's ignored more than one reasoned rebuttal of that bet - which is a shame as if he has some genuine logic it would have been interesting to see it.
    I was putting you to the test: you are very keen to spend English tax payer's money, but never to risk your own... even for charity. I think we have got your measure
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Alistair said:

    I've lost track of which bookies I have put all my GE15 bets on, bugger.

    Pulpstars spreadsheet was amazing months ago.

    Must be close to Excel 2010 maximum 1,048,576 rows by now!
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,313

    Dair said:

    FFS why has BBC1 been switched to news. When will the BBC learn that they now have a rolling news channel for anyone interested in new benefits scroungers.

    On such a thought, I remember when Nicholas Witchell was a journalist rather than a sycophant. Do you think he chose the job or it was some sort of punishment?

    I remember when Nicholas Witchell was a journalist rather than a sycophant

    from a bloke who dry humps Alex Salmond's leg daily on here, that's quite funny.
    I'm not sure why rolling news might be necessary. She's had a baby, it's a girl. The next newsworthy thing is that we'll be told a name. And then they will leave hospital. I see absolutely no value in reporting between those occurrences.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    @JohnRentoul: Poll alert: we have a ComRes phone poll in @IndyOnSunday tomorrow – questions here http://t.co/a9wR62Qkfi
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    SMukesh said:

    Not sure whether Mike is referring to my mention of Lord Ashcroft polls though can`t see what`s defamatory about them.

    I am referring to a Dan Hodges Tweet about a pollster.

    What did he say?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,516
    edited May 2015

    Dair said:

    FFS why has BBC1 been switched to news. When will the BBC learn that they now have a rolling news channel for anyone interested in new benefits scroungers.

    On such a thought, I remember when Nicholas Witchell was a journalist rather than a sycophant. Do you think he chose the job or it was some sort of punishment?

    I remember when Nicholas Witchell was a journalist rather than a sycophant

    from a bloke who dry humps Alex Salmond's leg daily on here, that's quite funny.
    I'm not sure why rolling news might be necessary. She's had a baby, it's a girl. The next newsworthy thing is that we'll be told a name. And then they will leave hospital. I see absolutely no value in reporting between those occurrences.

    There is not much value in it but if you have a 24 hour rolling channel what do you fill it up with ?

    The public want "ooh aha little baby" rather than three rich Oxbridge prats lying to our faces.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Some musing on the outcome,,,,,
    What result works best for the country?
    Con trickledownomics has failed. Any recovery has been snaffled by the rich and not passed along. It's time for stringent restrictions on unbridled wealth and greed. Also the ideological small state is wrong. They should be focussing on making the State the size of the tax receipts which simplifies society into deciding to spend more next year by paying more tax this year (proportionately taken from wealth and high earners down to a lower increase for lower paid workers and the retired)
    On the other hand, labour have not done the hard time for the overspend 01-10 and the weak state we were in to face the crisis and have all but abandoned their founding purpose.. The working class men and women of Britain. They have, perhaps, a handful of decent, well focused and working class orientd politicians, but they are so marginalised in the party as to be redundant.
    The Lib Dems have become an irrelevance and a nuisance, interested only in power broking and clinging on to their dwindling support base.
    UKIP are not for me. I'm anti EU but pro immigration, integration and staunchly pro LBGT rights, none of which for the UKIP mantra.
    The Greens have some good ideas and are the only ones looking at the world from a different perspective, I will be voting for them but not in the hope of victory, more for personal satisfaction as there are a number of crazy policies amongst the well intentioned and positive ones.
    I am English so the various republicans and nationalists are not my place to judge, but I do rather like Sturgeon and Wood and find myself drawn increasingly to a federal solution, and the Salmond monster is always good value.

    Conclusion - for the first time I don't want any of them to win, so I'm entirely neutral on the result. I'd marginally prefer a continuation of the SQ to a Labour coalition, but not by enough to get excercised about. That's not a softening of my view (very dim) of Labour and their treachery to the WC, it's more an indictment of the failed austerity/recovery of the blue team and their removal from the real world we have all lived in for five years. And I increasingly believe wealth taxes and taxes on corporations and the highest paid have to go up sharply.
    So, I'll be able to enjoy results night come what may without being all squiffy about what happens. Lucky me.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,395
    franklyn said:

    Carnyx said:

    Alistair said:

    franklyn said:

    What odds would anyone give that the Conservatives in Scotland win as many seats or more than the LibDems? (including the possibility of none for either). Likewise what odds that Scottish Labour win as many or fewer than Scottish Cons plus Scottish Lib Dem (again including the possibility of both getting none)

    Finally any takers for my previous offer of a charity bet that SNP get 57 or fewer seats; £50 charity bet (one bet only). loser to pay to the charity of the winner's choice; UK wide charities and non religious (or political ones). Put your money where your rhetoric is, and for a good cause.

    Con-vs-LD with Con winning on a tie would be Odds on I'd say.

    Your charity bet is still awful value at evens.
    Indeed. He's ignored more than one reasoned rebuttal of that bet - which is a shame as if he has some genuine logic it would have been interesting to see it.
    I was putting you to the test: you are very keen to spend English tax payer's money, but never to risk your own... even for charity. I think we have got your measure
    At more sensible odds!

    The analogy would be if I demanded you give me evens on the Tories winning at least one current LD seat ...
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    MikeK said:

    SMukesh said:

    Not sure whether Mike is referring to my mention of Lord Ashcroft polls though can`t see what`s defamatory about them.

    I am referring to a Dan Hodges Tweet about a pollster.

    What did he say?
    I'm not going to repeat it. That's what I'm trying to stop.

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    rcs1000 said:

    MikeK said:

    "Why has such a consensus developed? Much of it is surely due to the monotony of the YouGov and Populus poll results, the most frequent pollsters and also the most stable in output. The result is that that each additional poll reinforces confidence that they must be right and hence gives an impression of where the election’s heading. In a similar vein, if everyone interprets those polls in the same way then ‘most likely’ tends towards the apparently inevitable simply by reaffirmation.

    What you are really saying David is that the polls are distorting the true picture and leading the comentariat, especially where the new MINOR parties are concerned. Which is what I have been saying for months.

    @MikeK

    How come insurgent parties in Europe have all been overstated by internet pollsters? What makes UKIP different?
    The Greek Syriza Party was understated until the last election, then everyone jumped on the band-waggon.

    I'm hoping- I don't know - that UKIP will outpoll all the pollsters and pundits alike by the morning of May 8th.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,313
    dr_spyn said:

    What would be the rate of pay for someone who pulls a rickshaw..terms and conditions..pension ..sick pay/..

    Given that Darren Hall the Green PPC is an engineer, it shows a lack of vision, just a backward look at very old technology. So much for CAD, CAM, 3D printing and work at GKN, Airbus, Rolls Royce et al. Rickshaws...bloody rickshaws...we don't need bloody rickshaws.
    Taxis are expensive. They have 3-5 seats and mostly one person gets in, that can't be efficient. Maybe we need something like auto rickshaws (tuk-tuks) which would be much cheaper to buy and run, and therefore cheaper to the customer.

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CD7w0Y3UkAE5UTW.jpg

    Could this be a candidate for the unexplained £12bn welfare cuts.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,234

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CD7w0Y3UkAE5UTW.jpg

    Could this be a candidate for the unexplained £12bn welfare cuts.

    Quite. I keep telling people this but I don't think it registers. Either that or they are all BTL landlords.
  • After last Sunday's "worst crisis since the abdication" headline re the SNP, the headlines tomorrow would have to be even more lurid - "Sturgeon heralds zombie apocalypse" anyone? The arrival of the Royal Baby may have blown a hole in that plan however.

    Oh wait I got it... "Vile Nats In Royal Baby Twitter Shame", "Disgusting Separatists Poke Fun At Little Baby"... Any takers??
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited May 2015

    dr_spyn said:

    What would be the rate of pay for someone who pulls a rickshaw..terms and conditions..pension ..sick pay/..

    Given that Darren Hall the Green PPC is an engineer, it shows a lack of vision, just a backward look at very old technology. So much for CAD, CAM, 3D printing and work at GKN, Airbus, Rolls Royce et al. Rickshaws...bloody rickshaws...we don't need bloody rickshaws.
    Taxis are expensive. They have 3-5 seats and mostly one person gets in, that can't be efficient. Maybe we need something like auto rickshaws (tuk-tuks) which would be much cheaper to buy and run, and therefore cheaper to the customer.

    The century-old taxi efficiency problem has just been solved by uber.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,313

    Dair said:

    FFS why has BBC1 been switched to news. When will the BBC learn that they now have a rolling news channel for anyone interested in new benefits scroungers.

    On such a thought, I remember when Nicholas Witchell was a journalist rather than a sycophant. Do you think he chose the job or it was some sort of punishment?

    I remember when Nicholas Witchell was a journalist rather than a sycophant

    from a bloke who dry humps Alex Salmond's leg daily on here, that's quite funny.
    I'm not sure why rolling news might be necessary. She's had a baby, it's a girl. The next newsworthy thing is that we'll be told a name. And then they will leave hospital. I see absolutely no value in reporting between those occurrences.

    There is not much value in it but if you have a 24 hour rolling channel what do you fill it up with?
    The usual. A news bulletin on the hour, a shorter one on the quarters, a sports bulletin and a couple of weather forecasts, pieces on about a dozen news stories, maybe a special interest report at xx:46. If I turn on BBC News at a random time I want to catch most of the news in 10-15 minutes, not Nicholas Witchell talking inanely from outside a hospital in Kensington. They should only go to rolling news when something fairly continuous is happening and/or we are likely to keep on finding out new stuff every few minutes.

  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Re welfare cuts. It won't hurt the Tories amongst groups likely to vote for them. They will assume it's more dead disabled people and 'scroungers' to suffer, and the heartless gimps in this country love a bit of that.
    And I speak from experience regarding the disabled issue. I've been through an ATOS in 2012, it's an unpleasant experience which drove me to invest what I had left into the pub game. It drives other people, sadly, in a very different direction.
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    Anecdote alert: group of us just completed about 160 phone calls: Labour ward, Labour constituency. All unknown intentions. 30% Tory, 20% won't say, 30% undecided, 20% Labour. Labour will get most of won't says but a good result in area where Labour MP is 100% chance of being re-elected. Having canvassed this area for 10 years, these are positive results for the blues.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    edited May 2015
    Here in Colchester had ANOTHER Lib Dem leaflet dressed up as a free newspaper.

    Getting ever more hysterical it seems too.

    The headline is " What have the tories got against Colchester"

    Answer appears to be roadworks and they turn off the lights overnight - like ooh, everywhere else in Essex.

    According to the Lib Dems the conservatives wanted to charge people 10 a month to use certain roads - but Norman Baker stopped them.

    According to our Lib dem friends they will make Labour borrow 70Bn less (a year or over 5 years?) - - good luck with that with the SNP around.

    Likewise they will ensure the tories cut 50bn less........ That Mansion tax will have to go some!

    We are warned about "Blukip" (conservative / UKIP / DUP coalition).

    Finally they berate the Labour candidate for campaigning in Norwich rather than here.

    Surely they cant be scared of losing Colchester?
  • marktheowlmarktheowl Posts: 169
    An excellent piece, unlike American elections UK elections are now a 3 dimensional chess game. There are so many factors a poll could underplay which could affect its outcome by enough to send the result a certain way that who knows.

    To make an addition to the 'Portillo moment' list, you left out the most obvious one - Esther McVey. Labour has to beat her to become the largest party, but there would also be a lot of happiness given that since the Tories realised IDS is toxic, she's been a frontwoman for the nastier work of the DWP.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    Some musing on the outcome,,,,,
    What result works best for the country?
    Con trickledownomics has failed. Any recovery has been snaffled by the rich and not passed along. It's time for stringent restrictions on unbridled wealth and greed. Also the ideological small state is wrong. They should be focussing on making the State the size of the tax receipts which simplifies society into deciding to spend more next year by paying more tax this year (proportionately taken from wealth and high earners down to a lower increase for lower paid workers and the retired)
    On the other hand, labour have not done the hard time for the overspend 01-10 and the weak state we were in to face the crisis and have all but abandoned their founding purpose.. The working class men and women of Britain. They have, perhaps, a handful of decent, well focused and working class orientd politicians, but they are so marginalised in the party as to be redundant.
    The Lib Dems have become an irrelevance and a nuisance, interested only in power broking and clinging on to their dwindling support base.
    UKIP are not for me. I'm anti EU but pro immigration, integration and staunchly pro LBGT rights, none of which for the UKIP mantra.
    The Greens have some good ideas and are the only ones looking at the world from a different perspective, I will be voting for them but not in the hope of victory, more for personal satisfaction as there are a number of crazy policies amongst the well intentioned and positive ones.
    I am English so the various republicans and nationalists are not my place to judge, but I do rather like Sturgeon and Wood and find myself drawn increasingly to a federal solution, and the Salmond monster is always good value.

    Conclusion - for the first time I don't want any of them to win, so I'm entirely neutral on the result. I'd marginally prefer a continuation of the SQ to a Labour coalition, but not by enough to get excercised about. That's not a softening of my view (very dim) of Labour and their treachery to the WC, it's more an indictment of the failed austerity/recovery of the blue team and their removal from the real world we have all lived in for five years. And I increasingly believe wealth taxes and taxes on corporations and the highest paid have to go up sharply.
    So, I'll be able to enjoy results night come what may without being all squiffy about what happens. Lucky me.


    Dyedwoolie is facing the same difficult choices that the last and the next governments face.

    However, governments have to make decisions and tough choices, even if the decision is not to change anything.

    Anyone can make decisions when the choices are easy. It is making decisions when choices are difficult which separates the men from the boys.

    We all have a responsibility to make a judgement about the trade offs between the options availaible and vote.




  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,313
    Pong said:

    dr_spyn said:

    What would be the rate of pay for someone who pulls a rickshaw..terms and conditions..pension ..sick pay/..

    Given that Darren Hall the Green PPC is an engineer, it shows a lack of vision, just a backward look at very old technology. So much for CAD, CAM, 3D printing and work at GKN, Airbus, Rolls Royce et al. Rickshaws...bloody rickshaws...we don't need bloody rickshaws.
    Taxis are expensive. They have 3-5 seats and mostly one person gets in, that can't be efficient. Maybe we need something like auto rickshaws (tuk-tuks) which would be much cheaper to buy and run, and therefore cheaper to the customer.

    The century-old taxi efficiency problem has just been solved by uber.
    I suppose it helps to solve the problem of taxis standing around empty for most of the time. I admit, being an infrequent taxi user I haven't tried Uber. I will have to give it a go.
  • DanielDaniel Posts: 160
    Tom Clark ‏@guardian_clark 52s52 seconds ago

    One poll prediction: tonight's YG for Sun Times will get over reported, as ST poll tends to, & esp if Con up
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,150
    Just got another letter from Ed in the post (got one a few weeks ago) and a Labour pledge card!
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CD7w0Y3UkAE5UTW.jpg

    Could this be a candidate for the unexplained £12bn welfare cuts.

    There are lots of benefits that needs tidying up. Pension tax relief at high end is just ridiculous - should be 20% all round. Child benefit for more than 3 kids stupid too. £10 winter allowance for Christmas must cost £20 to manage. Roll it up into pension.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    I wonder how this will go.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-england-32335637

    The Somali woman councillor in Bristol is very articulate, and an improvement on some of the current dross in the Labour team.
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    Libs in London telling me Hughes, Davey, Cable, Featherstone (?) safe. Tom Brake and Paul Bairstow is hard to judge. I can't see how they can hold on
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,150

    @JohnRentoul: Poll alert: we have a ComRes phone poll in @IndyOnSunday tomorrow – questions here http://t.co/a9wR62Qkfi

    I thought Indy on Sunday polls are online?
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    edited May 2015
    its in labours interests to keep the appearance of the polls tight to keep their activists motivated, to motivate the voters to make the effort to go out and vote for fear of a tory govt and to make the MSM report it as such. it does raise an eyebrow when you hear rumours of certain online pollsters where left leaning members have multiple accounts posing as both nominal tories and nominal labour supporters. if that can be done on a big enough scale it is possible to skew the polls with online pollsters, especially if their methodology is based on panelists from January when labour had a lead
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    After last Sunday's "worst crisis since the abdication" headline re the SNP, the headlines tomorrow would have to be even more lurid - "Sturgeon heralds zombie apocalypse" anyone? The arrival of the Royal Baby may have blown a hole in that plan however.

    Oh wait I got it... "Vile Nats In Royal Baby Twitter Shame", "Disgusting Separatists Poke Fun At Little Baby"... Any takers??

    Royal Surgeon blasts vile Sturgeon over babygate tweet

    Nic is sick as a parrot as royal baby boosts blues.

    Cams got the baby blues - happy birth boosts governments chances

    Nats baby snub disgrace

    Don't let it go to your 'Ed

    Etc etc
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,313

    Re welfare cuts. It won't hurt the Tories amongst groups likely to vote for them. They will assume it's more dead disabled people and 'scroungers' to suffer, and the heartless gimps in this country love a bit of that.
    And I speak from experience regarding the disabled issue. I've been through an ATOS in 2012, it's an unpleasant experience which drove me to invest what I had left into the pub game. It drives other people, sadly, in a very different direction.

    Unfortunately there's not much alternative. A surprising number of people apparently want to continue to claim sickness benefits indefinitely and doctors are all too happy to keep signing them off and tell them they'll never work again. There needs to be some sort of assessment - agreed it could work better though.

  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,313

    Some musing on the outcome,,,,,
    What result works best for the country?
    Con trickledownomics has failed. Any recovery has been snaffled by the rich and not passed along. It's time for stringent restrictions on unbridled wealth and greed. Also the ideological small state is wrong. They should be focussing on making the State the size of the tax receipts which simplifies society into deciding to spend more next year by paying more tax this year (proportionately taken from wealth and high earners down to a lower increase for lower paid workers and the retired)
    On the other hand, labour have not done the hard time for the overspend 01-10 and the weak state we were in to face the crisis and have all but abandoned their founding purpose.. The working class men and women of Britain. They have, perhaps, a handful of decent, well focused and working class orientd politicians, but they are so marginalised in the party as to be redundant.
    The Lib Dems have become an irrelevance and a nuisance, interested only in power broking and clinging on to their dwindling support base.
    UKIP are not for me. I'm anti EU but pro immigration, integration and staunchly pro LBGT rights, none of which for the UKIP mantra.
    The Greens have some good ideas and are the only ones looking at the world from a different perspective, I will be voting for them but not in the hope of victory, more for personal satisfaction as there are a number of crazy policies amongst the well intentioned and positive ones.
    I am English so the various republicans and nationalists are not my place to judge, but I do rather like Sturgeon and Wood and find myself drawn increasingly to a federal solution, and the Salmond monster is always good value.

    Conclusion - for the first time I don't want any of them to win, so I'm entirely neutral on the result. I'd marginally prefer a continuation of the SQ to a Labour coalition, but not by enough to get excercised about. That's not a softening of my view (very dim) of Labour and their treachery to the WC, it's more an indictment of the failed austerity/recovery of the blue team and their removal from the real world we have all lived in for five years. And I increasingly believe wealth taxes and taxes on corporations and the highest paid have to go up sharply.
    So, I'll be able to enjoy results night come what may without being all squiffy about what happens. Lucky me.

    So I guess that's a vote for the Tories or LibDems depending on your constituency then? Although it's a bit difficult if you don't want a particularly party to win but would prefer some sort of combination.

  • Floater said:

    Here in Colchester had ANOTHER Lib Dem leaflet dressed up as a free newspaper.

    Getting ever more hysterical it seems too.

    The headline is " What have the tories got against Colchester"

    Answer appears to be roadworks and they turn off the lights overnight - like ooh, everywhere else in Essex.

    According to the Lib Dems the conservatives wanted to charge people 10 a month to use certain roads - but Norman Baker stopped them.

    According to our Lib dem friends they will make Labour borrow 70Bn less (a year or over 5 years?) - - good luck with that with the SNP around.

    Likewise they will ensure the tories cut 50bn less........ That Mansion tax will have to go some!

    We are warned about "Blukip" (conservative / UKIP / DUP coalition).

    Finally they berate the Labour candidate for campaigning in Norwich rather than here.

    Surely they cant be scared of losing Colchester?

    A Colchester Conservative councillor who my father knows was pessimistic about the outcome (he thought they had a good candidate, but he "wasn't getting anywhere", not least because Sir Bob is like a super-councillor), so I'd be very surprised if Sir Bob went.

    The Libs may be more worried about losing council seats though, given three established Lib Dem councillors are retiring (two against very active Conservative opponents).
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Some musing on the outcome,,,,,
    What result works best for the country?
    Con trickledownomics has failed. Any recovery has been snaffled by the rich and not passed along. It's time for stringent restrictions on unbridled wealth and greed. Also the ideological small state is wrong. They should be focussing on making the State the size of the tax receipts which simplifies society into deciding to spend more next year by paying more tax this year (proportionately taken from wealth and high earners down to a lower increase for lower paid workers and the retired)
    On the other hand, labour have not done the hard time for the overspend 01-10 and the weak state we were in to face the crisis and have all but abandoned their founding purpose.. The working class men and women of Britain. They have, perhaps, a handful of decent, well focused and working class orientd politicians, but they are so marginalised in the party as to be redundant.
    The Lib Dems have become an irrelevance and a nuisance, interested only in power broking and clinging on to their dwindling support base.
    UKIP are not for me. I'm anti EU but pro immigration, integration and staunchly pro LBGT rights, none of which for the UKIP mantra.
    The Greens have some good ideas and are the only ones looking at the world from a different perspective, I will be voting for them but not in the hope of victory, more for personal satisfaction as there are a number of crazy policies amongst the well intentioned and positive ones.
    I am English so the various republicans and nationalists are not my place to judge, but I do rather like Sturgeon and Wood and find myself drawn increasingly to a federal solution, and the Salmond monster is always good value.

    Conclusion - for the first time I don't want very dim) of Labour and their treachery to the WC, it's more an indictment of the failed austerity/recovery of the blue team and their removal from the real world we have all lived in for five years. And I increasingly believe wealth taxes and taxes on corporations and the highest paid have to go up sharply.
    So, I'll be able to enjoy results night come what may without being all squiffy about what happens. Lucky me.


    Dyedwoolie is facing the same difficult choices that the last and the next governments face.

    However, governments have to make decisions and tough choices, even if the decision is not to change anything.

    Anyone can make decisions when the choices are easy. It is making decisions when choices are difficult which separates the men from the boys.

    We all have a responsibility to make a judgement about the trade offs between the options availaible and vote
    I've never failed to vote in council or general elections and will not do so in future. I guess the choice I'm making is to state, by vote, that neither option is viable and we need new thinking.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978

    @JohnRentoul: Poll alert: we have a ComRes phone poll in @IndyOnSunday tomorrow – questions here http://t.co/a9wR62Qkfi

    I thought Indy on Sunday polls are online?
    They are but they all know phone polls are da best.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699


    Dyedwoolie is facing the same difficult choices that the last and the next governments face.

    However, governments have to make decisions and tough choices, even if the decision is not to change anything.

    Anyone can make decisions when the choices are easy. It is making decisions when choices are difficult which separates the men from the boys.

    We all have a responsibility to make a judgement about the trade offs between the options availaible and vote.




    And when you exercise your responsibility and vote you discover that unless the majority in the seat you voted in is 2 or less you may as well have not bothered as your vote made no difference at all .
  • Flightpath1Flightpath1 Posts: 207
    Its true the royal baby is a bit of a yawn, but so is the miserly reaction to it from the usual suspects.

    As it is it seems there were 50+ television crews covering it.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Some musing on the outcome,,,,,
    What result works best for the country?
    Con trickledownomics has failed. Any recovery has been snaffled by the rich and not passed along. It's time for stringent restrictions on unbridled wealth and greed. Also the ideological small state is wrong. They should be focussing on making the State the size of the tax receipts which simplifies society into deciding to spend more next year by paying more tax this year (proportionately taken from wealth and high earners down to a lower increase for lower paid workers and the retired)
    On the other hand, labour have not done the hard time for the overspend 01-10 and the weak state we were in to face the crisis and have all but abandoned their founding purpose.. The working class men and women of Britain. They have, perhaps, a handful of decent, well focused and working class orientd politicians, but they are so marginalised in the party as to be redundant.
    The Lib Dems have become an irrelevance and a nuisance, interested only in power broking and clinging on to their dwindling support base.
    UKIP are not for me. I'm anti EU but pro immigration, integration and staunchly pro LBGT rights, none of which for the UKIP mantra.
    The Greens have some good ideas and are the only ones looking at the world from a different perspective, I will be voting for them but not in the hope of victory, more for personal satisfaction as there are a number of crazy policies amongst the well intentioned and positive ones.
    I am English so the various republicans and nationalists are not my place to judge, but I do rather like Sturgeon and Wood and find myself drawn increasingly to a federal solution, and the Salmond monster is always good value.

    Conclusion - for the first time I don't want any of them to win, so I'm entirely neutral on the result. I'd marginally prefer a continuation of the SQ to a Labour coalition, but not by enough to get excercised about. That's not a softening of my view (very dim) of Labour and their treachery to the WC, it's more an indictment of the failed austerity/recovery of the blue team and their removal from the real world we have all lived in for five years. And I increasingly believe wealth taxes and taxes on corporations and the highest paid have to go up sharply.
    So, I'll be able to enjoy results night come what may without being all squiffy about what happens. Lucky me.

    So I guess that's a vote for the Tories or LibDems depending on your constituency then? Although it's a bit difficult if you don't want a particularly party to win but would prefer some sort of combination.

    I'm in Broadland. Safe Tory hold .
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,313
    Dixie said:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CD7w0Y3UkAE5UTW.jpg

    Could this be a candidate for the unexplained £12bn welfare cuts.

    There are lots of benefits that needs tidying up. Pension tax relief at high end is just ridiculous - should be 20% all round. Child benefit for more than 3 kids stupid too. £10 winter allowance for Christmas must cost £20 to manage. Roll it up into pension.
    I think the Christmas bonus and winter fuel allowance are paid as benefits not part of the pension, so difficult to easily do until male and female pension ages have finally been aligned. As most people pay their bills monthly now it might be better to pay the WFA in 6 monthly instalments over the winter rather than one lump sum - by adding it to the pension.

  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    edited May 2015
    Floater said:

    Here in Colchester had ANOTHER Lib Dem leaflet dressed up as a free newspaper.

    Getting ever more hysterical it seems too.

    The headline is " What have the tories got against Colchester"

    Answer appears to be roadworks and they turn off the lights overnight - like ooh, everywhere else in Essex.

    According to the Lib Dems the conservatives wanted to charge people 10 a month to use certain roads - but Norman Baker stopped them.

    According to our Lib dem friends they will make Labour borrow 70Bn less (a year or over 5 years?) - - good luck with that with the SNP around.

    Likewise they will ensure the tories cut 50bn less........ That Mansion tax will have to go some!

    We are warned about "Blukip" (conservative / UKIP / DUP coalition).

    Finally they berate the Labour candidate for campaigning in Norwich rather than here.

    Surely they cant be scared of losing Colchester?

    Here in West Worthing , not exactly a marginal seat , we get leaflets dressed up as free newspapers from Conservative , Lib Dem and Greens . They often contain hysterical comments about what will happen if you vote for one of the other parties . Does that mean that the Conservatives are worried about losing Worthing ? Sorry , No !!!!!
  • Flightpath1Flightpath1 Posts: 207

    Nigel Farage on learning of the royal birth of a girl at 8lbs 3ozs sent his congratulations to the royal couple and observed it is nice to 'revert to imperial measurements'.

    Which imperial measurements was he referring to? The original system as adhered to by the USA or the revised system adopted by us in 1824?
    Was the weight troy, avoirdupois or apothecaries' ?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2015
    Dixie said:

    Libs in London telling me Hughes, Davey, Cable, Featherstone (?) safe. Tom Brake and Paul Bairstow is hard to judge. I can't see how they can hold on

    If they're saying Featherstone is safe but Burstow might not be it's probably best to discount it.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,313

    I've never failed to vote in council or general elections and will not do so in future. I guess the choice I'm making is to state, by vote, that neither option is viable and we need new thinking.

    I quite often decide whom to vote for by fairly narrow margins, especially in local elections. It's often the least worst candidate rather than the best. And rather like you, in retrospect I probably feel, despite voting Tory, the coalition was probably a better result than a Tory overall majority in 2010.

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,569


    Attlee did not expect to win in 1945. At least, not by such a margin. Someone’s diary records that on the morning when all, the results were declared ..... there was a delay in counting the postal, servicemen’s, votes ...... the subject wasn’t even discussed at breakfast in the Attlee household.

    But Attlee was famously phlegmatic. I love the story of his exchange with a radio reporter on election eve:

    Eager reporter: "Mr Attllee, do you have one final message to add to the British people as they prepare to vote?"
    Attlee: "No."

    Imagine an Attlee Twitter account!


    Once, many years ago, what was then S. Rhodesia declared it’s independence under a white minority government. The late Jeremy Thorpe suggested bombing the insurgents, as they were seen by most people, although not the Tory Right.

    Shortly afterwards, canvassing one of the blues areas of the town where I lived on behalf of the Liberals I was several times "shown off" the premises for supporting “that bomber”!

    And yes, it was “bomber”!

    I was at my (international) school when it happened, and at the next "public affairs quiz", a question was, "Who is the Prime Minister of Rhodesia?". Correct answer was "Harold Wilson", since nobody had recognised Smith.

  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,313

    Nigel Farage on learning of the royal birth of a girl at 8lbs 3ozs sent his congratulations to the royal couple and observed it is nice to 'revert to imperial measurements'.

    Which imperial measurements was he referring to? The original system as adhered to by the USA or the revised system adopted by us in 1824?
    Was the weight troy, avoirdupois or apothecaries' ?
    The USA doesn't use "the original system", it uses one of a number of systems previously in use. We just happened to agree slightly different standards. I tend to think ours is marginally the more rationaL A gallon is a six inch cube and a gallon of water weighs ten pounds.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I'm not a republican, but the one thing I can't stand is experts who keep telling us how progressive the monarchy is because they've changed the rules on male/female succession.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,516

    Dair said:

    FFS why has BBC1 been switched to news. When will the BBC learn that they now have a rolling news channel for anyone interested in new benefits scroungers.

    On such a thought, I remember when Nicholas Witchell was a journalist rather than a sycophant. Do you think he chose the job or it was some sort of punishment?

    I remember when Nicholas Witchell was a journalist rather than a sycophant

    from a bloke who dry humps Alex Salmond's leg daily on here, that's quite funny.
    I'm not sure why rolling news might be necessary. She's had a baby, it's a girl. The next newsworthy thing is that we'll be told a name. And then they will leave hospital. I see absolutely no value in reporting between those occurrences.

    There is not much value in it but if you have a 24 hour rolling channel what do you fill it up with?
    The usual. A news bulletin on the hour, a shorter one on the quarters, a sports bulletin and a couple of weather forecasts, pieces on about a dozen news stories, maybe a special interest report at xx:46. If I turn on BBC News at a random time I want to catch most of the news in 10-15 minutes, not Nicholas Witchell talking inanely from outside a hospital in Kensington. They should only go to rolling news when something fairly continuous is happening and/or we are likely to keep on finding out new stuff every few minutes.

    But the baby is the news it's a one off. You can have Miliband, Cameron, Clegg and their cohorts spouting bollocks any day of the week.

    And currently in what has to be one of the most dismal election campaigns in living memory, the princess beats the politicians hands down.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    Betting Post:

    1550 Punch Pass The Time 125-1 (VC)

    1900 Hex Solway Prince 25-1
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417

    @JohnRentoul: Poll alert: we have a ComRes phone poll in @IndyOnSunday tomorrow – questions here http://t.co/a9wR62Qkfi

    I thought Indy on Sunday polls are online?
    They are but they all know phone polls are da best.
    Poster count on brief foray into Totley today

    Des Walker 1
    Lib Dems 2
    Coppard 1
This discussion has been closed.