"Why has such a consensus developed? Much of it is surely due to the monotony of the YouGov and Populus poll results, the most frequent pollsters and also the most stable in output. The result is that that each additional poll reinforces confidence that they must be right and hence gives an impression of where the election’s heading. In a similar vein, if everyone interprets those polls in the same way then ‘most likely’ tends towards the apparently inevitable simply by reaffirmation.
What you are really saying David is that the polls are distorting the true picture and leading the comentariat, especially where the new MINOR parties are concerned. Which is what I have been saying for months.
Of course I understand why you fear Salmond so much - taking the SNP from no-where to dominating Scottish politics in a remarkable career. In this campaign he has soaked up all of the Tory anti-Scottish flac while Nicola gets on with winning the election. He meets the Tory demonisation with a cheerful shrug and gets on with the task in hand. He might just become the only recorded exception to the Powell rule that all political careers end in failure!
He who laughs last laughs longest and come Thursday it is Salmond who will be laughing at his detractors on this site - assuming he knows they exist!
Pulpstar - The ukip factor will I believe be dilute the Tory majority from many die-hard tory voters (there is a consensus of opinion that Turner isn't healthy enough to serve the Island (stroke victim who appears incoherent at the moment)) and that the Liberal candidate will gain a significant number of votes to leapfrog Turner. One other factor is the shambles of Turners team make up, as he's had a lot of fighting from within and several campaign managers...
The most curious thing about this election is that the tories appear to be wildly popular in blue yellow battlegrounds, and yet on thin ice in blue red battlegrounds.
On the Isle of Wight, there is a very strong anti-Andrew Turner (Con) thing going on, me thinks that there is every chance for a LIb Gain here. :-(
Lib ?!
I've got it down as a possible island independent or UKIP gain - but the LIBERALS ?!
Surely not.
One to not touch with a 50 foot barge poll betting wise.
Parts of the IoW look and feel very UKIPpy.
I was over there at Easter visiting an uncle. I think Con hold but the IoW independent will put up a good showing. I thought he was worth a couple of quid. Well known on the island and campaigning well.
Morning Dave, will still not make any difference to SNP whatsoever. Another royal sprog to be paid for i snot such a great event. After Lizzie they will fade to obscurity.
Out of curiosity Malcolm - and this is a genuine question that I have always wanted to know the answer to - why did Salmond propose keeping the Queen in the event of a Yes vote? I always thought an independent Scotland would automatically be a republic, which has clearly always been a popular option there. Yet he didn't propose it.
ydoethur, whilst true that there are many who are not inclined to the Royal family in general , the Queen is very popular and I think it would not go down well whilst she is around. Not so sure how people would see it after she is gone but would not be even an option to suggest it till then.
Yes or no to the monarchy is the least of Scotland's problems. The future 3 Kings are assured which is more than you can say for any future Scottish president. But leaving a popular paying its way monarchy to the English is fine by me. I can just see the tourists to see the official home of President Salmond.
The most curious thing about this election is that the tories appear to be wildly popular in blue yellow battlegrounds, and yet on thin ice in blue red battlegrounds.
Most peculiar. Can't get my 'ead round that.
Be careful, the 'ead might explode. Its that sort of election.
I'd like to place a wager on this constituency, just to compensate me if the worst does happen - any suggestions who to go to. Thanks for the MD. Since being employed (rather than self-employed) time has been at a premium, so have just been a lurker in the past half decade.
There will be a lot of unemployed SLAB MPs shortly. No doubt many are fairly useless lobby fodder, but there must be a fair number who are reasonably talented and not wanting to give up politics.
Surely the obvious outlet is to become MSP's next year?
This would have two effects: some degree of opposition to SNP hegemony; and secondly to make Scottish politics even more inward looking.
Interesting times!
In 2011, Labour got only 26% of the List vote. The PR portion gives the chance to vote Green, SSP, Solidarity to people who vote Labour on the FPTP seat. It is also very likely that SLAB will lose every single FPTP Constituency Seat they hold (they currently have 15).
Consider this. Labour have imploded and their List vote, at this point, can be predicted to be between 10% and 20% in each region. This means in 5 of the Regions they can only hope for 2 seats and in the other 3 regions 1 seat. The prediction for SLAB at Holyrood 2016 should be 13 seats.
Finally consider this.
There will be : -
30 or so former MPs 20 or so unsuccessful Westminster Candidates 15 FPTP MSPs 22 List MSPs 10 or so senior councillors expecting elevation 10 or so senior party hacks expecting a shot
That's ONE HUNDRED AND SEVEN greedy, ambitious, determined Labour Party careerists all scrambling over a position at the top of each list or second place in 5 of the lists.
Imagine the level of infighting, backstabbing, smearing and all the other underhand tactics you can imagine with 107 cat's in a sack all fighting for their very existence. Then imagine how that will look to anyone else.
Some people think that Holyrood's list system can save Scottish Labour. Think about all these details and ask yourself, are you sure?
Suppose Miliband does become PM. Suppose Scottish Labour does then indulge in a massive bout of infighting both over blame and over places on the lists. What odds would you set on the Tories becoming the official opposition after 2016? Is a split along the lines of SNP 45 / Con 17 / Lab 16 / Grn 11 / LD 6 / Oth 5 that far out of the question?
On current polling for Holyrood SNP are likely to get over 70 seats. Hopefully as we get closer somebody will develop a seat calculator by region, best one I've come across is:
Suffice to say based on current polling the 3 "mainstream parties" pain is going to continue as the SNP sweeps across the constituency seats. They will then be caught in a pincer movement for regional seats by the SNP, the Greens and UKIP. Theoretically the Greens could come 2nd, due to the workings of the AMS system designed to keep the SNP out of power.
So he did. As I recall, I wasn't the only one who thought at the time, ooh, that ambiguity's tempting fate ... but we have to wait and see.
It's definitely one for a new edition of the Matthew Parris 'Read My Lips/Mission Accomplished' book. Assuming, that is, that they lose all their Scottish seats, which at the moment would definitely appear to be the value bet in the election.
Wouldn't it be funny, in a strange way, if the Liberal Democrats held Orkney and therefore had more seats in Scotland than Labour?
Another Murphyism would be that one about being astonished at finding how easy it was to outwith the SNP, as Wings has been enjoying raking up on Twitter to add to your collection.
And just been reading this in the Scotsman (he's talking about the current campaigning, I think, but the article isn't explicit):
“Is this the hardest thing I’ve ever done?” he says. “Of course not. Growing up in a housing scheme a couple of miles from here was harder than this. Living in a caravan with my mum and dad, that’s harder. Moving to South Africa during apartheid and trying to dodge [national service in] the South African army, and living in a house full of ANC supporters, that’s harder. Moving back home by myself and being out of work, and knocking on people’s doors, and asking for permission to wash people’s cars for 50 pence a time – all of that is harder. This isn’t even in my top ten.”
He is such a richard, when you see his lips moving you just think lies lies lies
Rejoice all, rejoice all- the royal baby is due. DC must have been fist pumping big time this morrow "yes, yes." I almost heard him here in Italy.
I wonder what they will call her? Victory.
The Sun's May 8th headlines- "it woz the royal prog wot wunnit"
I'd have thought given the Tory position is the one that needs to improve, rather than Labour's, he would want as many days possible to attempt positive Tory stories in an effort to change things, which will be harder with more royal coverage.
I do not see a royal baby changing anything. Its another PB meme that generates a life of its own.
Of course I understand why you fear Salmond so much - taking the SNP from no-where to dominating Scottish politics in a remarkable career. In this campaign he has soaked up all of the Tory anti-Scottish flac while Nicola gets on with winning the election. He meets the Tory demonisation with a cheerful shrug and gets on with the task in hand. He might just become the only recorded exception to the Powell rule that all political careers end in failure!
He who laughs last laughs longest and come Thursday it is Salmond who will be laughing at his detractors on this site - assuming he knows they exist!
Good luck to you Salmond and Scotland. Its clear that the best way for England to vote when faced with posts like yours is - Tory. Only screaming idiots would of course vote UKIP and deliver the entire nation to Sturgeon and Miliband.
Are all surprises in favour of the Conservatives? I’m thinking of 1970 and 1992 when we won despite the polling evidence leading up to the election. 1945 went admittedly the other way but I think expectations would have been very different if opinion polls had been operating. Have Labour ever pulled off a surprise result?
William Hill have just done me for 66/1 - happy to take a tenner punt on the Libs... They have Ukip at 5/1 and Ind at 12/1 and with turner 1/9. The IoW has always been Libs or Tory.
Shame for Labour that the Royal baby will take the air war out of the game till tuesday. We have been consistently beating the Tories at it for a while now.
Suppose Miliband does become PM. Suppose Scottish Labour does then indulge in a massive bout of infighting both over blame and over places on the lists. What odds would you set on the Tories becoming the official opposition after 2016? Is a split along the lines of SNP 45 / Con 17 / Lab 16 / Grn 11 / LD 6 / Oth 5 that far out of the question?
I'd say that it is very likely that Ruth Davidson will be leader of the opposition after 2016. 16 seats would be a relatively high mark for Labour if the infighting kicks off as it must after May 7th.
The only question is whether UKIP can do anything or the SSP/Solidarity manage anything. The socialists are still badly split, hate each other so no chance of reconcilliation. Solidarity is basically a Tommy vanity project but Colin Fox has too much animosity to try and solidify the position. Neither will reach out a hand.
Coburn is killing any hope for UKIP and with luck the won't make the threshold in any region so the Tories don't have much to fear from them. I don't think Farage and Evans care enough about Scotland to replace Coburn with a less "colourful" character.
On seats I'd expect SNP 72, Con 25, Labour 15, Lib 4, Green 12, SSP 1
I'd like to place a wager on this constituency, just to compensate me if the worst does happen - any suggestions who to go to. Thanks for the MD. Since being employed (rather than self-employed) time has been at a premium, so have just been a lurker in the past half decade.
For some reason I can hardly even seem to log in to PB from my iPad. The only time I can actually recall it working was the night of the IndyRef.
I can read it on the iPad (just about) but can't log in or comment, and the page layout is inpredictably/variously OK (why?) or a complete mess (why?): type-size can be either OK or ridiculously small and unsizeable, LH sidebar usually overlaying comments, pitch of comments column irremediably wider than the window.
Just about tolerable but for full use of the site, it's back to the desktop Mac. Election night is going to give me a lot of exercise.
I have the same issue. It works on the Chrome app but not the default Safari.
I've found similar problems at times. Black message boxes on Chrome saying indecipherable things.
Pulpstar - The ukip factor will I believe be dilute the Tory majority from many die-hard tory voters (there is a consensus of opinion that Turner isn't healthy enough to serve the Island (stroke victim who appears incoherent at the moment)) and that the Liberal candidate will gain a significant number of votes to leapfrog Turner. One other factor is the shambles of Turners team make up, as he's had a lot of fighting from within and several campaign managers...
Shame for Labour that the Royal baby will take the air war out of the game till tuesday. We have been consistently beating the Tories at it for a while now.
Labour are planning today to be out income equality and the cost of living (which worries many voters). None of it will get coverage, now.
Looking at the swings in Peterborough and Norwich North and the better performance of UKIP in the East,I wonder whether this is the most likely area for Labour gains after the North West.
Seats up for grabs: Bedford,Watford,Stevenage,Peterborough,Norwich South,Norwich North,Cambridge,Waveney,Ipswich,Thurrock,South Basildon and East Thurrock,Harlow,Great Yarmouth.
Pulpstar - The ukip factor will I believe be dilute the Tory majority from many die-hard tory voters (there is a consensus of opinion that Turner isn't healthy enough to serve the Island (stroke victim who appears incoherent at the moment)) and that the Liberal candidate will gain a significant number of votes to leapfrog Turner. One other factor is the shambles of Turners team make up, as he's had a lot of fighting from within and several campaign managers...
What sort of profile does Ian Stevens have?
He has been a prominent councillor for years and is a caulkhead (island born). Turner is a bit of a dead loss and is opposed to a fixed link to the mainland. This is a big issue on the Island, but one with increasing support.
William Hill have just done me for 66/1 - happy to take a tenner punt on the Libs... They have Ukip at 5/1 and Ind at 12/1 and with turner 1/9. The IoW has always been Libs or Tory.
Bet 365 has Stephens at 25/1. I still think Turner likely to win, but not by much.
Rejoice all, rejoice all- the royal baby is due. DC must have been fist pumping big time this morrow "yes, yes." I almost heard him here in Italy.
I wonder what they will call her? Victory.
The Sun's May 8th headlines- "it woz the royal prog wot wunnit"
I'd have thought given the Tory position is the one that needs to improve, rather than Labour's, he would want as many days possible to attempt positive Tory stories in an effort to change things, which will be harder with more royal coverage.
I do not see a royal baby changing anything. Its another PB meme that generates a life of its own.
The DayLate Record will have a team ready to cull twitter for all the anti-monarchy tweets from Independence supporters then arbitrarily apply them as "SNP" just as the press did with the demonstrators from Scottish Resistance at Ed Miliband's Glasgow mirage yesterday.
Pulpstar - The ukip factor will I believe be dilute the Tory majority from many die-hard tory voters (there is a consensus of opinion that Turner isn't healthy enough to serve the Island (stroke victim who appears incoherent at the moment)) and that the Liberal candidate will gain a significant number of votes to leapfrog Turner. One other factor is the shambles of Turners team make up, as he's had a lot of fighting from within and several campaign managers...
I made a list of UKIP possibles a couple if years ago based in 2010 data and IOW came up... W the shenanigans around the Tory candidate I backed it at 11/2
I saw a Labour sign in the village yesterday. It is the ONLY Labour sign here. Labour gets over half the vote here, the parliamentary seat is in the CON 40:40 targets.
Pulpstar - The ukip factor will I believe be dilute the Tory majority from many die-hard tory voters (there is a consensus of opinion that Turner isn't healthy enough to serve the Island (stroke victim who appears incoherent at the moment)) and that the Liberal candidate will gain a significant number of votes to leapfrog Turner. One other factor is the shambles of Turners team make up, as he's had a lot of fighting from within and several campaign managers...
Typical BBC election bias - they claim the Duchess of Cambridge has gone into the early stages of labour. They have a big red banner across their web page as well.
Looking at the swings in Peterborough and Norwich North and the better performance of UKIP in the East,I wonder whether this is the most likely area for Labour gains after the North West.
Seats up for grabs: Bedford,Watford,Stevenage,Peterborough,Norwich South,Norwich North,Cambridge,Waveney,Ipswich,Thurrock,South Basildon and East Thurrock,Harlow,Great Yarmouth.
Bedford and Norwich South, yes. Waveney, probably. Ipswich, Peterborough, Norwich North, Stevenage, TCTC. Cambridge, Watford, South Basildon, Harlow, Great Yarmouth, no. Thurrock, close but probably UKIP.
I saw a Labour sign in the village yesterday. It is the ONLY Labour sign here. Labour gets over half the vote here, the parliamentary seat is in the CON 40:40 targets.
Mr. Flightpath, new Conservative attack line: Labour = prolonged period of terrible pain, at the ending of which there is great relief and joy for all concerned
I saw a Labour sign in the village yesterday. It is the ONLY Labour sign here. Labour gets over half the vote here, the parliamentary seat is in the CON 40:40 targets.
And the inference is...???
No enthusiasm for labour???
Yep.
MUCH more poster activity detected in ethnically mixed areas of Sheffield.
Pulpstar - The ukip factor will I believe be dilute the Tory majority from many die-hard tory voters (there is a consensus of opinion that Turner isn't healthy enough to serve the Island (stroke victim who appears incoherent at the moment)) and that the Liberal candidate will gain a significant number of votes to leapfrog Turner. One other factor is the shambles of Turners team make up, as he's had a lot of fighting from within and several campaign managers...
What sort of profile does Ian Stevens have?
Is Mr Wight a real Tory or is this a spoof?
It's generally considered bad form to accuse first-time posters of trolling.
Pulpstar - The ukip factor will I believe be dilute the Tory majority from many die-hard tory voters (there is a consensus of opinion that Turner isn't healthy enough to serve the Island (stroke victim who appears incoherent at the moment)) and that the Liberal candidate will gain a significant number of votes to leapfrog Turner. One other factor is the shambles of Turners team make up, as he's had a lot of fighting from within and several campaign managers...
The SLAB infighting is well underway with Ian Davidson sticking the knife into Jim Murphy. Again the tactical voting by Tories is being hailed as a potential lifeline for Jim, what this shows is that SLAB and their MSM supporters have completely lost the plot as to why their in such a mess in Scotland:
A Scottish Labour spokesman said: "There have never been more resources spent and a more professional campaign in Scotland. There are full time organisers in every one of our key seats and the level of traditional and digital campaigning has never been so high."
Boasting about their MSM backed failed campaign says it all I guess !!
Shame for Labour that the Royal baby will take the air war out of the game till tuesday. We have been consistently beating the Tories at it for a while now.
Labour are planning today to be out income equality and the cost of living (which worries many voters). None of it will get coverage, now.
That's possibly no bad thing for Labour, income equality tends to be taking money from people like me and giving it to people who are actually better off, but seen as more deserving.
O/T , but I see BES are saying Labour lead the Conservatives 47/23 among ethnic minority voters, compared to 68/16 in 2010. That could help Gavin Barwell, Angie Bray, and Bob Blackman.
''MUCH more poster activity detected in ethnically mixed areas of Sheffield.''
This is the foundation of my ailing hope (and bet) for a tory led coalition a la ARSE. The labour vote will be a no-show. Some are lying, some won't bother, some aren;t even registered, some don't like ed.
And when yougov says 34, the score is, in fact, closer to 24.
I base this on the evidence of every election we've had since 2014. Labour seems to be doing pretty well on numbers, until on the eve there's some sort of brainfart, and the labour vote number is suddenly well below what we;ve been led to believe.
Typical BBC election bias - they claim the Duchess of Cambridge has gone into the early stages of labour. They have a big red banner across their web page as well.
'Early stages of labour' - attending a Fabian Society meeting?
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the penulimate ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 28th April Projection) :
Con 306 (+1) .. Lab 247 (+1) .. LibDem 28 (-2) .. SNP 42 (NC) .. PC 3 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :
Bury North - Con Hold Pudsey - Likely Con Hold Broxtowe - Likely Lab Gain Warwickshire North - Likely Con Hold from TCTC Cambridge - LibDem Hold Ipswich - Con Hold Watford - TCTC Croydon Central - Con Hold Enfield North - Likely Lab Gain Cornwall North - TCTC Great Yarmouth - Con Hold Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain
Changes From 28 Apr - Warwickshire North moves from TCTC to Likely Con Gain
TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes Gain/Hold - Over 2500 .......................................................................................
ARSE is sponsored by Auchentennach Fine Pies (Est 1745)
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division JNN - Jacobite News Network ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain
Jack's ARSE = I Won't Back Down.... I'm Gonna Stand My Ground....
Shame for Labour that the Royal baby will take the air war out of the game till tuesday. We have been consistently beating the Tories at it for a while now.
Labour are planning today to be out income equality and the cost of living (which worries many voters). None of it will get coverage, now.
That's possibly no bad thing for Labour, income equality tends to be taking money from people like me and giving it to people who are actually better off, but seen as more deserving.
Oh come on, John, how many could be more deserving than you?
Btw, ground troops locally are reporting a Tory retreat from Hampstead. Those who bet on the millionaires tax making a difference should get their chestnuts out of the fire quick.
Better half's mum reckons he is a "tool". She's a Green-Red switcher. Will still vote for him... I think... but couldn't believe he ruled out doing a deal with the SNP.
Labour's SNP line has not just hurt Labour's right flank and seen UKIP-Con switchers, it has given those on Labour's Green-left flank in England pause for thought too.
Pulpstar - The ukip factor will I believe be dilute the Tory majority from many die-hard tory voters (there is a consensus of opinion that Turner isn't healthy enough to serve the Island (stroke victim who appears incoherent at the moment)) and that the Liberal candidate will gain a significant number of votes to leapfrog Turner. One other factor is the shambles of Turners team make up, as he's had a lot of fighting from within and several campaign managers...
What sort of profile does Ian Stevens have?
Is Mr Wight a real Tory or is this a spoof?
He knows what he's talking about.
Mr Wight is cool, but the IOW is notoriously difficult to predict.
Typical BBC election bias - they claim the Duchess of Cambridge has gone into the early stages of labour. They have a big red banner across their web page as well.
But the Leeds Question Time audience was a Tory/BBC stitch-up. "Undecided"s were members of the Tory party. The woman who employs 76 people later gave George Osborne a thumbs up !
The Eastern region has been swinging away from Labour relative to the rest of the country since the 1950s. If that pattern continues they might struggle to win seats like Waveney, Ipswich, Stevenage, Norwich North, Bedford.
The former Chair of the Royal College of GP`s has resigned from NHS England to campaign for Labour worried `as the NHS is in a danger zone`.
Really? Clare Gerada...she openly admitted she is a member of the Labour Party months ago and got caught with her hands in the cookie jar organizing a stitch up letter on behalf of Labour only a few weeks ago.
O/T , but I see BES are saying Labour lead the Conservatives 47/23 among ethnic minority voters, compared to 68/16 in 2010. That could help Gavin Barwell, Angie Bray, and Bob Blackman.
Those numbers look like drivel:
2010 Con+Lab = 84 2015 Con+Lab = 70
So where have the other 14% gone to ? Obviously not the LibDems so unless we see a massive swing to Respect, Greens and/or UKIP it doesn't add up.
1. The Never Knowingly Udersold award goes to Sunil's Elbow 2. The Squeaky Bum award goes to Bob Sykes 3. The Best Supporting Squeaky Bum goes to Casino 4. The Dan Hodges award goes to Chestnut 5. The Sid and Doris award goes to Doddy 6, The Asbergers award (for the 8th consecutive year) goes to SeanT 7. The Robbie Burns language award goes to Malc 8. The Green/Shapps Sock Puppet award goes to Mitchi and Trublue 9. The Del Boy betting award goes to Pulpstar 10.The Royal Baby Red Face award goes to Rod Crosby (currently being withheld in case of a miracle)
And finally the Lifetime Achievement Award (in association with Samaritans) for keeping the Blue Flag Flying goes To 103 year old JackW!!
Sky News Newsdesk @SkyNewsBreak 8s8 seconds ago The Duchess of Cambridge has given birth to a girl weighing 8lbs 3oz #RoyalBaby
Spyn, you are a terrible spoiler.
I've been recording it in the hope I could watch it through the nite without knowing the outcome. Now I know the result, it takes all the fun out of it. :-(
Burnham and Bennett trying to whip up support in Bristol West this morning.
Burnham should just say that if hospitals in Bristol were to fail (again), he would not be in favour of an inquiry in case the trust's reputation got hurt.
Whereas he's fully in favour of Liverpudliuans getting an inquiry.
The Eastern region has been swinging away from Labour relative to the rest of the country since the 1950s. If that pattern continues they might struggle to win seats like Waveney, Ipswich, Stevenage, Norwich North, Bedford.
But mostly this is for known and already-realised reasons connected to East Anglia's disproportionate share of agricultural labourers which has vanished.
Malcolm - while you're around, any thoughts on the 'p.s.' bit in the leader? If the SNP do score as well as the polls report, what would for you be the one definitive image of the night?
For me, having lived most of my life in the city, it would be Establishment Edinburgh falling en masse to the SNP
Shame for Labour that the Royal baby will take the air war out of the game till tuesday. We have been consistently beating the Tories at it for a while now.
Labour are planning today to be out income equality and the cost of living (which worries many voters). None of it will get coverage, now.
That's possibly no bad thing for Labour, income equality tends to be taking money from people like me and giving it to people who are actually better off, but seen as more deserving.
Oh come on, John, how many could be more deserving than you?
Btw, ground troops locally are reporting a Tory retreat from Hampstead. Those who bet on the millionaires tax making a difference should get their chestnuts out of the fire quick.
Tulip will bloom on May 7th.
Finchley will be a closer result than Hampstead.
Those Conservative activists need to direct their activities about two miles northward.
They'll find no shortage of 'millionaires mansions' on Bishops Avenue.
O/T , but I see BES are saying Labour lead the Conservatives 47/23 among ethnic minority voters, compared to 68/16 in 2010. That could help Gavin Barwell, Angie Bray, and Bob Blackman.
Why would ethnic minorities have swung away from Labour so sharply?
The Eastern region has been swinging away from Labour relative to the rest of the country since the 1950s. If that pattern continues they might struggle to win seats like Waveney, Ipswich, Stevenage, Norwich North, Bedford.
But mostly this is for known and already-realised reasons connected to East Anglia's disproportionate share of agricultural labourers which has vanished.
That was quite a lot of Liberal votes lost as well.
The big picture is that even a good Labour performance means six gains.
The Eastern region has been swinging away from Labour relative to the rest of the country since the 1950s. If that pattern continues they might struggle to win seats like Waveney, Ipswich, Stevenage, Norwich North, Bedford.
Perhaps you should show a bit more attention to the Ashcroft polls:
It has Labour with massive leads in Bedford,Ipswich,Norwich South,Waveney,leads in Stevenage,Peterborough,Norwich North and narrowing the gap in Great Yarmouth and Thurrock from last year and a 3 way battle in Watford.
JJ Burnham and Liverpool have yet to come to terms with the fact that all those killed were not crushed to death by anyone else other than fellow Liverpudlians..the guilt is heavy and they cannot really deal with it.
Burnham and Bennett trying to whip up support in Bristol West this morning.
Burnham should just say that if hospitals in Bristol were to fail (again), he would not be in favour of an inquiry in case the trust's reputation got hurt.
Whereas he's fully in favour of Liverpudliuans getting an inquiry.
Shame for Labour that the Royal baby will take the air war out of the game till tuesday. We have been consistently beating the Tories at it for a while now.
Labour are planning today to be out income equality and the cost of living (which worries many voters). None of it will get coverage, now.
That's possibly no bad thing for Labour, income equality tends to be taking money from people like me and giving it to people who are actually better off, but seen as more deserving.
Oh come on, John, how many could be more deserving than you?
Btw, ground troops locally are reporting a Tory retreat from Hampstead. Those who bet on the millionaires tax making a difference should get their chestnuts out of the fire quick.
Tulip will bloom on May 7th.
Finchley will be a closer result than Hampstead.
Those Conservative activists need to direct their activities about two miles northward.
They'll find no shortage of 'millionaires mansions' on Bishops Avenue.
They might not find many voters in them though.
Lol! Agreed, Richard. You put it very well.
The mental image of somebody trying to canvass in Bishops Ave is hilarious. I swear some of those houses have machine gun turrets to discourage casual callers.
1. The Never Knowingly Udersold award goes to Sunil's Elbow 2. The Squeaky Bum award goes to Bob Sykes 3. The Best Supporting Squeaky Bum goes to Casino 4. The Dan Hodges award goes to Chestnut 5. The Sid and Doris award goes to Doddy 6, The Asbergers award (for the 8th consecutive year) goes to SeanT 7. The Robbie Burns language award goes to Malc 8. The Green/Shapps Sock Puppet award goes to Mitchi and Trublue 9. The Del Boy betting award goes to Pulpstar 10.The Royal Baby Red Face award goes to Rod Crosby (currently being withheld in case of a miracle)
And finally the Lifetime Achievement Award (in association with Samaritans) for keeping the Blue Flag Flying goes To 103 year old JackW!!
Arf what have I done to earn the "Del Boy" award ?
O/T , but I see BES are saying Labour lead the Conservatives 47/23 among ethnic minority voters, compared to 68/16 in 2010. That could help Gavin Barwell, Angie Bray, and Bob Blackman.
Why would ethnic minorities have swung away from Labour so sharply?
Wouldn't it just reflect a natural process of assimilation?
As the years pass, you'd expect the profile to match increasingly that of the host population. Seems a perfectly normal (even encouraging) process to me.
The Eastern region has been swinging away from Labour relative to the rest of the country since the 1950s. If that pattern continues they might struggle to win seats like Waveney, Ipswich, Stevenage, Norwich North, Bedford.
Perhaps you should show a bit more attention to the Ashcroft polls:
It has Labour with massive leads in Bedford,Ipswich,Norwich South,Waveney,leads in Stevenage,Peterborough,Norwich North and narrowing the gap in Great Yarmouth and Thurrock from last year and a 3 way battle in Watford.
1. The Never Knowingly Udersold award goes to Sunil's Elbow 2. The Squeaky Bum award goes to Bob Sykes 3. The Best Supporting Squeaky Bum goes to Casino 4. The Dan Hodges award goes to Chestnut 5. The Sid and Doris award goes to Doddy 6, The Asbergers award (for the 8th consecutive year) goes to SeanT 7. The Robbie Burns language award goes to Malc 8. The Green/Shapps Sock Puppet award goes to Mitchi and Trublue 9. The Del Boy betting award goes to Pulpstar 10.The Royal Baby Red Face award goes to Rod Crosby (currently being withheld in case of a miracle)
And finally the Lifetime Achievement Award (in association with Samaritans) for keeping the Blue Flag Flying goes To 103 year old JackW!!
Arf what have I done to earn the "Del Boy" award ?
Beacause if the SNP do the biz, this time next week you'll be a millionaire. :-)
The Eastern region has been swinging away from Labour relative to the rest of the country since the 1950s. If that pattern continues they might struggle to win seats like Waveney, Ipswich, Stevenage, Norwich North, Bedford.
But mostly this is for known and already-realised reasons connected to East Anglia's disproportionate share of agricultural labourers which has vanished.
That was quite a lot of Liberal votes lost as well.
The big picture is that even a good Labour performance means six gains.
Hmm... Norwich North/South, Yarmouth. Waveney, Ipswich. Cambridge, Peterborough. Bedford. Stevenage, Harlow, Thurrock, South Basildon and East Thurrock. The reason these won't all happen in 2015 is because Labour aren't going to have a good performance! But they were all, theoretically, achievable if Labour had done better. (Oops - I forgot Watford!)
The Eastern region has been swinging away from Labour relative to the rest of the country since the 1950s. If that pattern continues they might struggle to win seats like Waveney, Ipswich, Stevenage, Norwich North, Bedford.
Perhaps you should show a bit more attention to the Ashcroft polls:
It has Labour with massive leads in Bedford,Ipswich,Norwich South,Waveney,leads in Stevenage,Peterborough,Norwich North and narrowing the gap in Great Yarmouth and Thurrock from last year and a 3 way battle in Watford.
Waveney hasn't bee polled since July!
Ashcroft stops polling seats if he believes the leads are too large to be overturned.
JJ Burnham and Liverpool have yet to come to terms with the fact that all those killed were not crushed to death by anyone else other than fellow Liverpudlians..the guilt is heavy and they cannot really deal with it.
Wrong IMHO, possibly to the point of trolling.
The families of those who died at Hillsborough should learn the truth of what happened. It looks as though this inquiry might finally get to something resembling the truth.
But the fact that that **** Burnham can be fully in favour of that inquiry, but think that the families of Stafford do not deserve the truth, shows that he is unsuitable to be anywhere near the health brief.
How many people would he be willing to see die, or be in unnecessary pain, before a trust's reputation can be sullied?
1. The Never Knowingly Udersold award goes to Sunil's Elbow 2. The Squeaky Bum award goes to Bob Sykes 3. The Best Supporting Squeaky Bum goes to Casino 4. The Dan Hodges award goes to Chestnut 5. The Sid and Doris award goes to Doddy 6, The Asbergers award (for the 8th consecutive year) goes to SeanT 7. The Robbie Burns language award goes to Malc 8. The Green/Shapps Sock Puppet award goes to Mitchi and Trublue 9. The Del Boy betting award goes to Pulpstar 10.The Royal Baby Red Face award goes to Rod Crosby (currently being withheld in case of a miracle)
And finally the Lifetime Achievement Award (in association with Samaritans) for keeping the Blue Flag Flying goes To 103 year old JackW!!
Arf what have I done to earn the "Del Boy" award ?
Beacause if the SNP do the biz, this time next week you'll be a millionaire. :-)
Shame for Labour that the Royal baby will take the air war out of the game till tuesday. We have been consistently beating the Tories at it for a while now.
Labour are planning today to be out income equality and the cost of living (which worries many voters). None of it will get coverage, now.
That's possibly no bad thing for Labour, income equality tends to be taking money from people like me and giving it to people who are actually better off, but seen as more deserving.
Oh come on, John, how many could be more deserving than you?
Btw, ground troops locally are reporting a Tory retreat from Hampstead. Those who bet on the millionaires tax making a difference should get their chestnuts out of the fire quick.
Tulip will bloom on May 7th.
Finchley will be a closer result than Hampstead.
Those Conservative activists need to direct their activities about two miles northward.
They'll find no shortage of 'millionaires mansions' on Bishops Avenue.
They might not find many voters in them though.
Lol! Agreed, Richard. You put it very well.
The mental image of somebody trying to canvass in Bishops Ave is hilarious. I swear some of those houses have machine gun turrets to discourage casual callers.
Once, many years ago, what was then S. Rhodesia declared it’s independence under a white minority government. The late Jeremy Thorpe suggested bombing the insurgents, as they were seen by most people, although not the Tory Right.
Shortly afterwards, canvassing one of the blues areas of the town where I lived on behalf of the Liberals I was several times "shown off" the premises for supporting “that bomber”!
Burnham and Bennett trying to whip up support in Bristol West this morning.
Burnham should just say that if hospitals in Bristol were to fail (again), he would not be in favour of an inquiry in case the trust's reputation got hurt.
Whereas he's fully in favour of Liverpudliuans getting an inquiry.
Comments
What you are really saying David is that the polls are distorting the true picture and leading the comentariat, especially where the new MINOR parties are concerned. Which is what I have been saying for months.
Of course I understand why you fear Salmond so much - taking the SNP from no-where to dominating Scottish politics in a remarkable career. In this campaign he has soaked up all of the Tory anti-Scottish flac while Nicola gets on with winning the election. He meets the Tory demonisation with a cheerful shrug and gets on with the task in hand. He might just become the only recorded exception to the Powell rule that all political careers end in failure!
He who laughs last laughs longest and come Thursday it is Salmond who will be laughing at his detractors on this site - assuming he knows they exist!
Not that I'd bet on him keeping his seat at current odds. That market looks like a tar pit.
Most peculiar. Can't get my 'ead round that.
Kettering 1-8 Corals.
On current polling for Holyrood SNP are likely to get over 70 seats. Hopefully as we get closer somebody will develop a seat calculator by region, best one I've come across is:
http://www.scotlandvotes.com/holyrood
Suffice to say based on current polling the 3 "mainstream parties" pain is going to continue as the SNP sweeps across the constituency seats. They will then be caught in a pincer movement for regional seats by the SNP, the Greens and UKIP. Theoretically the Greens could come 2nd, due to the workings of the AMS system designed to keep the SNP out of power.
Its clear that the best way for England to vote when faced with posts like yours is - Tory. Only screaming idiots would of course vote UKIP and deliver the entire nation to Sturgeon and Miliband.
The former Chair of the Royal College of GP`s has resigned from NHS England to campaign for Labour worried `as the NHS is in a danger zone`.
Could be on for a strong 4 th and scuppering any last remaining Labour hopes. Red knocker upper last night looked particularly dispirited
The only question is whether UKIP can do anything or the SSP/Solidarity manage anything. The socialists are still badly split, hate each other so no chance of reconcilliation. Solidarity is basically a Tommy vanity project but Colin Fox has too much animosity to try and solidify the position. Neither will reach out a hand.
Coburn is killing any hope for UKIP and with luck the won't make the threshold in any region so the Tories don't have much to fear from them. I don't think Farage and Evans care enough about Scotland to replace Coburn with a less "colourful" character.
On seats I'd expect SNP 72, Con 25, Labour 15, Lib 4, Green 12, SSP 1
https://yournextmp.com/person/5766/ian-stephens
Sam Freedman argues that this could be a real danger with pressure from UKIP pushing the conservatives into a reluctant new expansion.'
http://www.consider-ed.org.uk/education-electon-could-grammars-be-on-the-way-back/
Seats up for grabs:
Bedford,Watford,Stevenage,Peterborough,Norwich South,Norwich North,Cambridge,Waveney,Ipswich,Thurrock,South Basildon and East Thurrock,Harlow,Great Yarmouth.
Working on the week by week version this morning!
A big mea culpa for not doing this earlier, but better late than never!
Just to confirm, because Election Day's coming up, divided 26th April to 6th May into two ELBOWs, one from 26th to 30th, and then 1st May to 6th May.
And the inference is...???
No enthusiasm for labour???
IF Scobie was to win Ed is PM with a 100 + majority.
Labour = prolonged period of terrible pain, at the ending of which there is great relief and joy for all concerned
MUCH more poster activity detected in ethnically mixed areas of Sheffield.
Good question.
The rerun of the 1970 meme yet again.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/scottish-politics/jim-murphy-might-be-saved-by-tactical-voting-tories-poll-analysis-suggest.124938548
The best quote in this article is:
A Scottish Labour spokesman said: "There have never been more resources spent and a more professional campaign in Scotland. There are full time organisers in every one of our key seats and the level of traditional and digital campaigning has never been so high."
Boasting about their MSM backed failed campaign says it all I guess !!
This is the foundation of my ailing hope (and bet) for a tory led coalition a la ARSE. The labour vote will be a no-show. Some are lying, some won't bother, some aren;t even registered, some don't like ed.
And when yougov says 34, the score is, in fact, closer to 24.
I base this on the evidence of every election we've had since 2014. Labour seems to be doing pretty well on numbers, until on the eve there's some sort of brainfart, and the labour vote number is suddenly well below what we;ve been led to believe.
Btw, ground troops locally are reporting a Tory retreat from Hampstead. Those who bet on the millionaires tax making a difference should get their chestnuts out of the fire quick.
Tulip will bloom on May 7th.
Labour's SNP line has not just hurt Labour's right flank and seen UKIP-Con switchers, it has given those on Labour's Green-left flank in England pause for thought too.
What would be interesting is some regional polling in England?
They said: "We are now concentrating on 10 to 12 seats.
Heard from Lib Dems:
We plan to keep up to 35 seats.
The situation must be well dire for both of them even past the public knowledge.
These public estimates are always high side.
2010 Con+Lab = 84
2015 Con+Lab = 70
So where have the other 14% gone to ? Obviously not the LibDems so unless we see a massive swing to Respect, Greens and/or UKIP it doesn't add up.
The Duchess of Cambridge has given birth to a girl weighing 8lbs 3oz #RoyalBaby
1. The Never Knowingly Udersold award goes to Sunil's Elbow
2. The Squeaky Bum award goes to Bob Sykes
3. The Best Supporting Squeaky Bum goes to Casino
4. The Dan Hodges award goes to Chestnut
5. The Sid and Doris award goes to Doddy
6, The Asbergers award (for the 8th consecutive year) goes to SeanT
7. The Robbie Burns language award goes to Malc
8. The Green/Shapps Sock Puppet award goes to Mitchi and Trublue
9. The Del Boy betting award goes to Pulpstar
10.The Royal Baby Red Face award goes to Rod Crosby (currently being withheld in case of a miracle)
And finally the Lifetime Achievement Award (in association with Samaritans) for keeping the Blue Flag Flying goes To 103 year old JackW!!
I've been recording it in the hope I could watch it through the nite without knowing the outcome. Now I know the result, it takes all the fun out of it. :-(
Whereas he's fully in favour of Liverpudliuans getting an inquiry.
Scum.
Those Conservative activists need to direct their activities about two miles northward.
They'll find no shortage of 'millionaires mansions' on Bishops Avenue.
They might not find many voters in them though.
The big picture is that even a good Labour performance means six gains.
It has Labour with massive leads in Bedford,Ipswich,Norwich South,Waveney,leads in Stevenage,Peterborough,Norwich North and narrowing the gap in Great Yarmouth and Thurrock from last year and a 3 way battle in Watford.
is that a bandwagon to jump on?
The mental image of somebody trying to canvass in Bishops Ave is hilarious. I swear some of those houses have machine gun turrets to discourage casual callers.
As the years pass, you'd expect the profile to match increasingly that of the host population. Seems a perfectly normal (even encouraging) process to me.
The families of those who died at Hillsborough should learn the truth of what happened. It looks as though this inquiry might finally get to something resembling the truth.
But the fact that that **** Burnham can be fully in favour of that inquiry, but think that the families of Stafford do not deserve the truth, shows that he is unsuitable to be anywhere near the health brief.
How many people would he be willing to see die, or be in unnecessary pain, before a trust's reputation can be sullied?
Shortly afterwards, canvassing one of the blues areas of the town where I lived on behalf of the Liberals I was several times "shown off" the premises for supporting “that bomber”!
And yes, it was “bomber”!