Still undecided about how I'll follow things, and for how long. The agony of choice!
If Witcher 3 came out earlier, I'd just play that for ages and occasionally flick back onto the TV in between playing cards and severing heads.
Mr. Herdson's quite right. This election's as hard to call as the start of the 2012 F1 season (when the first seven races had seven different winners).
TV for election show of your choice, computer for various websites, and iPad for PB (the place to be during national events)?
Of course, I am assuming you are talking about how you are going to follow the election coverage.....
so, Scottish twilight. In German. Presumably there's more to it that that, or some cultural/political/historical reference I'm not getting?
well technically if you want it in German it should be Schottendämmerung - twilight of the Scots. ie they vote National Sociialist and the whole place collapses.
There will be a lot of unemployed SLAB MPs shortly. No doubt many are fairly useless lobby fodder, but there must be a fair number who are reasonably talented and not wanting to give up politics.
Surely the obvious outlet is to become MSP's next year?
This would have two effects: some degree of opposition to SNP hegemony; and secondly to make Scottish politics even more inward looking.
Interesting times!
The quality of SLAB MPs and the sort of institutional arrogance that allowed such placemen to become candidates is not the least of the problems they are facing at this election. SLAB have tested the donkey with the rosette theory to destruction. Very few would add much to the generally embarrassing level of debate in the Scottish Parliament.
Whatever you think of them, people such as Alexander, Curran and Murphy would surely make Labour a stronger, more forceful presence in Holyrood. Like it or not, Labour's big beasts in Scotland need to face up to the fact that's where their futures lie.
so, Scottish twilight. In German. Presumably there's more to it that that, or some cultural/political/historical reference I'm not getting?
Wagner's Gotterdammerung (the final opera in his Ring cycle) = twilight of the Gods.
However, it's taken a more general meaning to be the end of any era whereby the previously powerful are overcome, particularly by the efforts of the heroic everyman.
The inference being that the Scottish political 'gods' i.e. the Labour machine is about to witness its own descent into night. One could argue the literality of the metaphor as after the twilight and the night is a new dawn whereas in both settings, the assumption is that it's permanent. Furthermore, the gods lose their power both through their own actions of selfishness and quarrelling, and through human love rendering the gods redundant. There are enough parallels to make antifrank's creation perfect.
I do think/hope that this chart could prove to be one of the most significant of the election and well done to Sunil for collating it. It shows a consistent and increasing swing to the Tories in the phone polls indicative of a lead by polling day of maybe 4%. This is being masked by Yougov in particular which is showing a swing back to Labour and dragging the average back to flat.
I don't think anyone can be completely confident about who is right and who is wrong in this polling but one delivers one of David's surprises and one delivers another. In court cases that are not clear cut one of the tests is which side would you rather be on? I think in this case I would rather be on the side of the phones.
If this was 2005, with Yougov the only Internet pollster, polling two or three times a week, we'd be expecting a Conservative plurality. Over the past week, Labour have led in eight, and the Conservatives have led in eight. But, five Labour leads have been with Yougov.
Currently, the Conservatives lead with six pollsters, Labour with three, and the Conservative leads are bigger.
@PaulGoodmanCH: If the Tories win more seats but Labour gains office, over half of party members think Cameron should remain leader http://t.co/Wmlme8uV2Y
The most astonishing result would be a Labour majority. The second most astonishing a Labour plurality. The most likely result is a comfortable Tory plurality. A Tory majority would be mildly surprising. In short, the campaign has changed very little.
100/1 available on Betfair for a Labour majority.
Taking out a few notes and using them to light a fire would be a better use of money than placing a bet on a Labour majority!
My final forecast range: Tories - 285-305 Labour - 245-265 LibDems - 20-30 SNP - 55-59
I can't see the Tories over 290. Labour towards the top of your range, and despite all evidence to the contrary I think SNP will get about 50. I suspect the Shy anti vote to coalesce in a few seats. The prediction I made for the comp a couple of weeks ago I'd still be happy with if I hadn't underestimated SNP a bit at the expense of Lab. That was 285/280. 285/270 looks more likely now.
The thing that strikes me as odd about Yougov is the consistency of their polls - surely they should have thrown up one outlier by now?
Chan e of seeing no outliers can be calculated as 0.95 to the power of N where N is the number of days. Over a 20 day run there is a better than 1 in 3 Chance of seeing no outliers. Over 30 days it is still 1 in 5 of seeing no outliers.
But an outlier is one beyond the MoE, which is usually quoted as 3%. Even if methodology has reduced that number a bit, we're barely seeing any variation more than one point either side of the mode. Indeed, since Easter, there's only been one poll to put the Tories outside 34±1, none to have put Labour outside 35±1, none to have put the Lib Dems outside 8±1, none to have put UKIP outside 13±1 and none to have put the Greens outside 5±1.
That is more than consistent.
Once you start weighting to known (not recalled) prior opinions as well as demographics I think the statistical MoE might actually be more like 1-1.5%.
There have been 24 YouGovs since Easter, each reporting five party figures. Of those 120 scores, only one has been outside a two-point range for the relevant party. I accept that they're related contingencies but even so, if the MoE was 1%, you'd still be expecting six or so outside (perhaps more as a high for one party is likely to result in a low for another).
And that's before considering that opinion itself might not have been that static over the course of an election campaign.
so, Scottish twilight. In German. Presumably there's more to it that that, or some cultural/political/historical reference I'm not getting?
well technically if you want it in German it should be Schottendämmerung - twilight of the Scots. ie they vote National Sociialist and the whole place collapses.
So, Labour are facing a wipe out event in Scotland. Therefore they keep as their UK election organiser Douglas Alexander. Alexander is facing losing his own seat in Scotland. Utter madness, if EdM cannot see from the end of last year that this was very very stupid, his premiership will be worse than Brown's.
There will be a lot of unemployed SLAB MPs shortly. No doubt many are fairly useless lobby fodder, but there must be a fair number who are reasonably talented and not wanting to give up politics.
Surely the obvious outlet is to become MSP's next year?
This would have two effects: some degree of opposition to SNP hegemony; and secondly to make Scottish politics even more inward looking.
Interesting times!
The quality of SLAB MPs and the sort of institutional arrogance that allowed such placemen to become candidates is not the least of the problems they are facing at this election. SLAB have tested the donkey with the rosette theory to destruction. Very few would add much to the generally embarrassing level of debate in the Scottish Parliament.
Whatever you think of them, people such as Alexander, Curran and Murphy would surely make Labour a stronger, more forceful presence in Holyrood. Like it or not, Labour's big beasts in Scotland need to face up to the fact that's where their futures lie.
so, Scottish twilight. In German. Presumably there's more to it that that, or some cultural/political/historical reference I'm not getting?
well technically if you want it in German it should be Schottendämmerung - twilight of the Scots. ie they vote National Sociialist and the whole place collapses.
There will be a lot of unemployed SLAB MPs shortly. No doubt many are fairly useless lobby fodder, but there must be a fair number who are reasonably talented and not wanting to give up politics.
Surely the obvious outlet is to become MSP's next year?
This would have two effects: some degree of opposition to SNP hegemony; and secondly to make Scottish politics even more inward looking.
Interesting times!
The quality of SLAB MPs and the sort of institutional arrogance that allowed such placemen to become candidates is not the least of the problems they are facing at this election. SLAB have tested the donkey with the rosette theory to destruction. Very few would add much to the generally embarrassing level of debate in the Scottish Parliament.
Whatever you think of them, people such as Alexander, Curran and Murphy would surely make Labour a stronger, more forceful presence in Holyrood. Like it or not, Labour's big beasts in Scotland need to face up to the fact that's where their futures lie.
I honestly don't think that Alexander and Curran add anything. The most interesting SLAB MPs for me are Tom Harris and Mark Lazarowicz who, apart from Murphy, may be the only ones to get some sort of personal vote.
Murphy will face a serious dilemma if he hangs on. Does he stand for the Scottish Parliament and the role of First Minister or does he hang on in Westminster? If Labour have 5 Scottish MPs could they really risk a by election?
This shows another worrying consequence of the SNP tidal wave. We have got used to a Tory party with minimal Scottish input for nearly 20 years now but Scots have played a very full role in both Labour and the Lib Dems. That is about to change.
There will be a lot of unemployed SLAB MPs shortly. No doubt many are fairly useless lobby fodder, but there must be a fair number who are reasonably talented and not wanting to give up politics.
Surely the obvious outlet is to become MSP's next year?
This would have two effects: some degree of opposition to SNP hegemony; and secondly to make Scottish politics even more inward looking.
Interesting times!
The quality of SLAB MPs and the sort of institutional arrogance that allowed such placemen to become candidates is not the least of the problems they are facing at this election. SLAB have tested the donkey with the rosette theory to destruction. Very few would add much to the generally embarrassing level of debate in the Scottish Parliament.
Whatever you think of them, people such as Alexander, Curran and Murphy would surely make Labour a stronger, more forceful presence in Holyrood. Like it or not, Labour's big beasts in Scotland need to face up to the fact that's where their futures lie.
SO, we want rid of lying cheating toerags
so that's why you're sending Salmond to Westmisnter.
There will be a lot of unemployed SLAB MPs shortly. No doubt many are fairly useless lobby fodder, but there must be a fair number who are reasonably talented and not wanting to give up politics.
Surely the obvious outlet is to become MSP's next year?
This would have two effects: some degree of opposition to SNP hegemony; and secondly to make Scottish politics even more inward looking.
Interesting times!
The quality of SLAB MPs and the sort of institutional arrogance that allowed such placemen to become candidates is not the least of the problems they are facing at this election. SLAB have tested the donkey with the rosette theory to destruction. Very few would add much to the generally embarrassing level of debate in the Scottish Parliament.
Whatever you think of them, people such as Alexander, Curran and Murphy would surely make Labour a stronger, more forceful presence in Holyrood. Like it or not, Labour's big beasts in Scotland need to face up to the fact that's where their futures lie.
SO, we want rid of lying cheating toerags
so that's why you're sending Salmond to Westmisnter.
so, Scottish twilight. In German. Presumably there's more to it that that, or some cultural/political/historical reference I'm not getting?
well technically if you want it in German it should be Schottendämmerung - twilight of the Scots. ie they vote National Sociialist and the whole place collapses.
The thing that strikes me as odd about Yougov is the consistency of their polls - surely they should have thrown up one outlier by now?
Chan e of seeing no outliers can be calculated as 0.95 to the power of N where N is the number of days. Over a 20 day run there is a better than 1 in 3 Chance of seeing no outliers. Over 30 days it is still 1 in 5 of seeing no outliers.
But an outlier is one beyond the MoE, which is usually quoted as 3%. Even if methodology has reduced that number a bit, we're barely seeing any variation more than one point either side of the mode. Indeed, since Easter, there's only been one poll to put the Tories outside 34±1, none to have put Labour outside 35±1, none to have put the Lib Dems outside 8±1, none to have put UKIP outside 13±1 and none to have put the Greens outside 5±1.
That is more than consistent.
Once you start weighting to known (not recalled) prior opinions as well as demographics I think the statistical MoE might actually be more like 1-1.5%.
There have been 24 YouGovs since Easter, each reporting five party figures. Of those 120 scores, only one has been outside a two-point range for the relevant party. I accept that they're related contingencies but even so, if the MoE was 1%, you'd still be expecting six or so outside (perhaps more as a high for one party is likely to result in a low for another).
And that's before considering that opinion itself might not have been that static over the course of an election campaign.
I quite agree; I think YouGov have got this wrong. But simply testing their outcomes against the mathematical distribution you'd expect if the true position had remained 34.5%-33.5% (i.e. some 37-31's etc.) isn't the way to go about proving it.
The mathematical MOE of weighted polling is lower than that given by statistics (that's why they weight). The methodological MOE is substantial and obviously the pollsters don't like to talk about that. So the mathematical 3% figure is very useful for them!
so, Scottish twilight. In German. Presumably there's more to it that that, or some cultural/political/historical reference I'm not getting?
well technically if you want it in German it should be Schottendämmerung - twilight of the Scots. ie they vote National Sociialist and the whole place collapses.
seems fair.
Alan, more like SchottenSonnenaufgang
Neologisms need not be HochDeutsch! The meaning is clear; though twilight for SLAB (and SLD) rather than Scots.
There will be a lot of unemployed SLAB MPs shortly. No doubt many are fairly useless lobby fodder, but there must be a fair number who are reasonably talented and not wanting to give up politics.
Surely the obvious outlet is to become MSP's next year?
This would have two effects: some degree of opposition to SNP hegemony; and secondly to make Scottish politics even more inward looking.
Interesting times!
However , Lamont closed the lists last year and said that sitting MSP's could not be ousted for carpet baggers , she knew what was coming.
Interesting. Can they still run in constituencies? Or will they have to earn a living like the rest of us before trying to get back in next time as per Nick P?
There will be a lot of unemployed SLAB MPs shortly. No doubt many are fairly useless lobby fodder, but there must be a fair number who are reasonably talented and not wanting to give up politics.
Surely the obvious outlet is to become MSP's next year?
This would have two effects: some degree of opposition to SNP hegemony; and secondly to make Scottish politics even more inward looking.
Interesting times!
The quality of SLAB MPs and the sort of institutional arrogance that allowed such placemen to become candidates is not the least of the problems they are facing at this election. SLAB have tested the donkey with the rosette theory to destruction. Very few would add much to the generally embarrassing level of debate in the Scottish Parliament.
Whatever you think of them, people such as Alexander, Curran and Murphy would surely make Labour a stronger, more forceful presence in Holyrood. Like it or not, Labour's big beasts in Scotland need to face up to the fact that's where their futures lie.
I honestly don't think that Alexander and Curran add anything. The most interesting SLAB MPs for me are Tom Harris and Mark Lazarowicz who, apart from Murphy, may be the only ones to get some sort of personal vote.
Murphy will face a serious dilemma if he hangs on. Does he stand for the Scottish Parliament and the role of First Minister or does he hang on in Westminster? If Labour have 5 Scottish MPs could they really risk a by election?
This shows another worrying consequence of the SNP tidal wave. We have got used to a Tory party with minimal Scottish input for nearly 20 years now but Scots have played a very full role in both Labour and the Lib Dems. That is about to change.
Well a chunk of that is the Tories own fault. They've spent too long ignoring Scotland and not doing enough to rebuild support. Maybe as the jigsaw pieces are thrown into the air this year, they'll get some common sense and start rebuilding a party behind Ruth Davidson. Starting with tackling the 30 years of cheap Slab demonisation of anyone of the right.
There will be a lot of unemployed SLAB MPs shortly. No doubt many are fairly useless lobby fodder, but there must be a fair number who are reasonably talented and not wanting to give up politics.
Surely the obvious outlet is to become MSP's next year?
This would have two effects: some degree of opposition to SNP hegemony; and secondly to make Scottish politics even more inward looking.
Interesting times!
The quality of SLAB MPs and the sort of institutional arrogance that allowed such placemen to become candidates is not the least of the problems they are facing at this election. SLAB have tested the donkey with the rosette theory to destruction. Very few would add much to the generally embarrassing level of debate in the Scottish Parliament.
Whatever you think of them, people such as Alexander, Curran and Murphy would surely make Labour a stronger, more forceful presence in Holyrood. Like it or not, Labour's big beasts in Scotland need to face up to the fact that's where their futures lie.
I honestly don't think that Alexander and Curran add anything. The most interesting SLAB MPs for me are Tom Harris and Mark Lazarowicz who, apart from Murphy, may be the only ones to get some sort of personal vote.
Murphy will face a serious dilemma if he hangs on. Does he stand for the Scottish Parliament and the role of First Minister or does he hang on in Westminster? If Labour have 5 Scottish MPs could they really risk a by election?
This shows another worrying consequence of the SNP tidal wave. We have got used to a Tory party with minimal Scottish input for nearly 20 years now but Scots have played a very full role in both Labour and the Lib Dems. That is about to change.
David, Harris is a real donkey and just a trougher of the worst order, useless as an MP. Lazarowicz is the invisible man , has anybody ever heard from or of him. These guys typify SLAB MP's. Add them to the sleazy snake oil seller Alexander and fishwife halfwit Curran and you see SLAB in all its crapness.
There will be a lot of unemployed SLAB MPs shortly. No doubt many are fairly useless lobby fodder, but there must be a fair number who are reasonably talented and not wanting to give up politics.
Surely the obvious outlet is to become MSP's next year?
This would have two effects: some degree of opposition to SNP hegemony; and secondly to make Scottish politics even more inward looking.
Interesting times!
The quality of SLAB MPs and the sort of institutional arrogance that allowed such placemen to become candidates is not the least of the problems they are facing at this election. SLAB have tested the donkey with the rosette theory to destruction. Very few would add much to the generally embarrassing level of debate in the Scottish Parliament.
Whatever you think of them, people such as Alexander, Curran and Murphy would surely make Labour a stronger, more forceful presence in Holyrood. Like it or not, Labour's big beasts in Scotland need to face up to the fact that's where their futures lie.
I honestly don't think that Alexander and Curran add anything. The most interesting SLAB MPs for me are Tom Harris and Mark Lazarowicz who, apart from Murphy, may be the only ones to get some sort of personal vote.
Murphy will face a serious dilemma if he hangs on. Does he stand for the Scottish Parliament and the role of First Minister or does he hang on in Westminster? If Labour have 5 Scottish MPs could they really risk a by election?
This shows another worrying consequence of the SNP tidal wave. We have got used to a Tory party with minimal Scottish input for nearly 20 years now but Scots have played a very full role in both Labour and the Lib Dems. That is about to change.
Following my last response to you, it surely does no harm to the Conservatives for the narrative to be that this is neck and neck.
The issue is whether the internet panels are full of more politically aware people who are more likely than average to be committed. But they tracked the Labour slump just fine until January. If the phone pollsters prove correct I think we will have to consider the infiltration & manipulation hypothesis.
Possibly.
I feel that there is perhaps a natural skew that comes in with age, working patterns and lifestyle with internet polls.
I still regularly encounter people in the 65+ age group who have no access, nor interest, in the internet. Many have no great confidence in using it even if they do. They all have telephones.
A certain type of lifestyle and pattern/type of work is also likely to make someone more able/probable to respond. People with time on their hands.
I realise that weighting is supposed to correct these things, but I'm not sure that it adequately does.
The most astonishing result would be a Labour majority. The second most astonishing a Labour plurality. The most likely result is a comfortable Tory plurality. A Tory majority would be mildly surprising. In short, the campaign has changed very little.
A Tory majority would be unexpected.
If the polls tell us anything it's that Labour are up and the Tories are down wrt to 2010.
In 2010, with 37% and an 8 pt lead the Tories didn't win a majority. In 1992, they barely scraped a majority with 42% of the vote.
I think Labour's vote % will go up and the Tories will get more or less what they got in 2010. But Labour needs around 38-40 gains in E&W just to stand still. That is a very tough ask, as a lot of Red LDs will "come home" in existing Labour seats. I also fancy we'll see a fair bit of Tory tactical voting for incumbent LD MPs where they are up against a Labour challenger. I expect Labour will win fewer than 10 seats against the LDs. I doubt UKIP will take any Labour seats, but it would not surprise me if they did.
I can't make up my mind, but am generally pessimistic. This feels like a classic Tory election. I can see three scenarios from most likely to least
(1) Everything has been overhyped. The SLab/LD collapse is limited. 40 seats change hand in England. Things basically carry on as they were with a much reduced Coalition majority.
(2) Labour do enough to get the Tories out. Anti-Tory tactical voting pattern dominates, boosting Labour (unwinding the Clegg effect of 2010). Labour/LD win where they challenge Tories.
(3) Canadian style tipping point reached, total SLab/LD collapse. Tory small majority based on hoovering up all LD seats and limiting losses to Labour through better turnout (a la 1992)
YouGov's incredibly stable outcome is actually what we should expect if opinion hasn't changed. Statistical MOE on opinion polls isn't actually 3% (because of weighting) and they are now weighting to prior opinion rather than just demography which will increase stability still further [by design]. Look up edmundintokyo's posts yesterday for more on this.
The issue is whether the internet panels are full of more politically aware people who are more likely than average to be committed. But they tracked the Labour slump just fine until January. If the phone pollsters prove correct I think we will have to consider the infiltration & manipulation hypothesis.
MD..Quite right, but it is a top number..The LDs may drop a little and so could the Cons..Lab might just stay the same..SNP..dunno,,,the Hype is very loud and they may fall short on that number..old habits die hard, especially in Scotland..and they did vote NO in the Ref.Fun to watch tho..
so, Scottish twilight. In German. Presumably there's more to it that that, or some cultural/political/historical reference I'm not getting?
well technically if you want it in German it should be Schottendämmerung - twilight of the Scots. ie they vote National Sociialist and the whole place collapses.
seems fair.
Alan, more like SchottenSonnenaufgang
Neologisms need not be HochDeutsch! The meaning is clear; though twilight for SLAB (and SLD) rather than Scots.
There will be a lot of unemployed SLAB MPs shortly. No doubt many are fairly useless lobby fodder, but there must be a fair number who are reasonably talented and not wanting to give up politics.
Surely the obvious outlet is to become MSP's next year?
This would have two effects: some degree of opposition to SNP hegemony; and secondly to make Scottish politics even more inward looking.
Interesting times!
However , Lamont closed the lists last year and said that sitting MSP's could not be ousted for carpet baggers , she knew what was coming.
Interesting. Can they still run in constituencies? Or will they have to earn a living like the rest of us before trying to get back in next time as per Nick P?
Fox, supposedly and existing MSP or list MSP etc could not be removed, unless they stepped down , to make way for carpetbaggers. Whether Murphy will change that , who knows. Interesting that Murphy has said he will do 5 years if he is returned to Westminster and also be FM as well, I think he has lost it or just accepts if he is lucky he will be back in London.
Not easy indulging in this tactical voting stuff is it? Given that the models and pollsters are indicating a 99% probability of the SNP taking Dundee West comfortably I think now I will stick with what I believe. If there had been a hint it was going to be close I would have voted Labour but there isn't.
The issue is whether the internet panels are full of more politically aware people who are more likely than average to be committed. But they tracked the Labour slump just fine until January. If the phone pollsters prove correct I think we will have to consider the infiltration & manipulation hypothesis.
Possibly.
I feel that there is perhaps a natural skew that comes in with age, working patterns and lifestyle with internet polls.
I still regularly encounter people in the 65+ age group who have no access, nor interest, in the internet. Many have no great confidence in using it even if they do. They all have telephones.
A certain type of lifestyle and pattern/type of work is also likely to make someone more able/probable to respond. People with time on their hands.
I realise that weighting is supposed to correct these things, but I'm not sure that it adequately does.
It is quite possible that weighting makes it worse. If older people are less likely to use the internet then those who do are probably more atypical, and even more so if weighted by socioeconomic factors.
So silver surfers who are purple tinged may well get significantly upweighted even beyond their numbers.
The thing that strikes me as odd about Yougov is the consistency of their polls - surely they should have thrown up one outlier by now?
Not really, the way they now weight to something highly correlated with current VI, namely Jan/Feb VI, means that their normal MoE is less than the 3% or whatever you' might have expected from their sample size, and relatedly the probability of them randomly getter numbers more than 3% out is less than 5%.
So about one in twenty.
We've had 28 YouGovs to date......
Not 5% (one in twenty), less than 5%. Probably quite a lot less than 5%.
There will be a lot of unemployed SLAB MPs shortly. No doubt many are fairly useless lobby fodder, but there must be a fair number who are reasonably talented and not wanting to give up politics.
Surely the obvious outlet is to become MSP's next year?
This would have two effects: some degree of opposition to SNP hegemony; and secondly to make Scottish politics even more inward looking.
Interesting times!
The quality of SLAB MPs and the sort of institutional arrogance that allowed such placemen to become candidates is not the least of the problems they are facing at this election. SLAB have tested the donkey with the rosette theory to destruction. Very few would add much to the generally embarrassing level of debate in the Scottish Parliament.
Whatever you think of them, people such as Alexander, Curran and Murphy would surely make Labour a stronger, more forceful presence in Holyrood. Like it or not, Labour's big beasts in Scotland need to face up to the fact that's where their futures lie.
I honestly don't think that Alexander and Curran add anything. The most interesting SLAB MPs for me are Tom Harris and Mark Lazarowicz who, apart from Murphy, may be the only ones to get some sort of personal vote.
Murphy will face a serious dilemma if he hangs on. Does he stand for the Scottish Parliament and the role of First Minister or does he hang on in Westminster? If Labour have 5 Scottish MPs could they really risk a by election?
This shows another worrying consequence of the SNP tidal wave. We have got used to a Tory party with minimal Scottish input for nearly 20 years now but Scots have played a very full role in both Labour and the Lib Dems. That is about to change.
Following my last response to you, it surely does no harm to the Conservatives for the narrative to be that this is neck and neck.
Maybe. I just wonder what it would have taken for Labour to become completely demoralised to the point more people would have wondered if voting Labour was sensible (it isn't). Yougov have one way or another kept the wheels on the bus to the bitter end.
Malcolm - while you're around, any thoughts on the 'p.s.' bit in the leader? If the SNP do score as well as the polls report, what would for you be the one definitive image of the night?
The thing that strikes me as odd about Yougov is the consistency of their polls - surely they should have thrown up one outlier by now?
Not really, the way they now weight to something highly correlated with current VI, namely Jan/Feb VI, means that their normal MoE is less than the 3% or whatever you' might have expected from their sample size, and relatedly the probability of them randomly getter numbers more than 3% out is less than 5%.
So about one in twenty.
We've had 28 YouGovs to date......
Not 5% (one in twenty), less than 5%. Probably quite a lot less than 5%.
I do think/hope that this chart could prove to be one of the most significant of the election and well done to Sunil for collating it. It shows a consistent and increasing swing to the Tories in the phone polls indicative of a lead by polling day of maybe 4%. This is being masked by Yougov in particular which is showing a swing back to Labour and dragging the average back to flat.
I don't think anyone can be completely confident about who is right and who is wrong in this polling but one delivers one of David's surprises and one delivers another. In court cases that are not clear cut one of the tests is which side would you rather be on? I think in this case I would rather be on the side of the phones.
Two of the phone pollsters, ICM and Mori, do not prompt for UKIP. They also produce the lowest UKIP numbers. That seems unlikely to be a coincidence.
Not easy indulging in this tactical voting stuff is it? Given that the models and pollsters are indicating a 99% probability of the SNP taking Dundee West comfortably I think now I will stick with what I believe. If there had been a hint it was going to be close I would have voted Labour but there isn't.
I think Ashcroft's constituency poll may end up being responsible for David Mundell losing in D,C&T.
Not easy indulging in this tactical voting stuff is it? Given that the models and pollsters are indicating a 99% probability of the SNP taking Dundee West comfortably I think now I will stick with what I believe. If there had been a hint it was going to be close I would have voted Labour but there isn't.
Tactical voting for a party I did not support is not something that I could stomach, though if two parties were equally apealling then I could be swayed.
I live in a safe seat so can vote as I please. The useless incumbent will be re elected.
Malcolm - while you're around, any thoughts on the 'p.s.' bit in the leader? If the SNP do score as well as the polls report, what would for you be the one definitive image of the night?
I'm not sure which would be more poignant - Jim Murphy 'out' or 'last man standing'.....
so, Scottish twilight. In German. Presumably there's more to it that that, or some cultural/political/historical reference I'm not getting?
Wagner's Gotterdammerung (the final opera in his Ring cycle) = twilight of the Gods.
However, it's taken a more general meaning to be the end of any era whereby the previously powerful are overcome, particularly by the efforts of the heroic everyman.
The inference being that the Scottish political 'gods' i.e. the Labour machine is about to witness its own descent into night. One could argue the literality of the metaphor as after the twilight and the night is a new dawn whereas in both settings, the assumption is that it's permanent. Furthermore, the gods lose their power both through their own actions of selfishness and quarrelling, and through human love rendering the gods redundant. There are enough parallels to make antifrank's creation perfect.
Malcolm - while you're around, any thoughts on the 'p.s.' bit in the leader? If the SNP do score as well as the polls report, what would for you be the one definitive image of the night?
It would be the clean out of the self serving tribe that SLAB is. They have been like leeches feasting on Scotland for ages, patronising money grabbing no hopers. Anybody would be better than SLAB. Hopefully be a new start.
I do think/hope that this chart could prove to be one of the most significant of the election and well done to Sunil for collating it. It shows a consistent and increasing swing to the Tories in the phone polls indicative of a lead by polling day of maybe 4%. This is being masked by Yougov in particular which is showing a swing back to Labour and dragging the average back to flat.
I don't think anyone can be completely confident about who is right and who is wrong in this polling but one delivers one of David's surprises and one delivers another. In court cases that are not clear cut one of the tests is which side would you rather be on? I think in this case I would rather be on the side of the phones.
Two of the phone pollsters, ICM and Mori, do not prompt for UKIP. They also produce the lowest UKIP numbers. That seems unlikely to be a coincidence.
ICM's figure of 7% for UKIP was implausibly low. But, the usual range of 10-13% seems realistic to me. I know enough Con/UKIP floating voters to know that fear of a Labour/SNP government will push some of them back to the Conservatives.
Malcolm - while you're around, any thoughts on the 'p.s.' bit in the leader? If the SNP do score as well as the polls report, what would for you be the one definitive image of the night?
I'm not sure which would be more poignant - Jim Murphy 'out' or 'last man standing'.....
Definitely "OUT" he is one of the worst of them , just behind Alexander and Curran.
Not easy indulging in this tactical voting stuff is it? Given that the models and pollsters are indicating a 99% probability of the SNP taking Dundee West comfortably I think now I will stick with what I believe. If there had been a hint it was going to be close I would have voted Labour but there isn't.
I think Ashcroft's constituency poll may end up being responsible for David Mundell losing in D,C&T.
I think he will hang on but it may be the Tories have a better chance next door in Berwickshire.
I do think/hope that this chart could prove to be one of the most significant of the election and well done to Sunil for collating it. It shows a consistent and increasing swing to the Tories in the phone polls indicative of a lead by polling day of maybe 4%. This is being masked by Yougov in particular which is showing a swing back to Labour and dragging the average back to flat.
I don't think anyone can be completely confident about who is right and who is wrong in this polling but one delivers one of David's surprises and one delivers another. In court cases that are not clear cut one of the tests is which side would you rather be on? I think in this case I would rather be on the side of the phones.
Two of the phone pollsters, ICM and Mori, do not prompt for UKIP. They also produce the lowest UKIP numbers. That seems unlikely to be a coincidence.
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the penulimate ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 28th April Projection) :
Con 306 (+1) .. Lab 247 (+1) .. LibDem 28 (-2) .. SNP 42 (NC) .. PC 3 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :
Bury North - Con Hold Pudsey - Likely Con Hold Broxtowe - Likely Lab Gain Warwickshire North - Likely Con Hold from TCTC Cambridge - LibDem Hold Ipswich - Con Hold Watford - TCTC Croydon Central - Con Hold Enfield North - Likely Lab Gain Cornwall North - TCTC Great Yarmouth - Con Hold Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain
Changes From 28 Apr - Warwickshire North moves from TCTC to Likely Con Gain
TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes Gain/Hold - Over 2500 .......................................................................................
ARSE is sponsored by Auchentennach Fine Pies (Est 1745)
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division JNN - Jacobite News Network ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain
Cons Incumbency..as in Dont Rock the Boat.. LDs..Loss of faith..Tuition fees etc.. Lab Hamstrung by EDS SNP.Nationalist fervour..often dissipates at the ballot Box SLAB Hamstrung by the EDs UKUP..Woolly..and has an image problem Greens..Total fruitcakes.
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the penulimate ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 28th April Projection) :
Con 306 (+1) .. Lab 247 (+1) .. LibDem 28 (-2) .. SNP 42 (NC) .. PC 3 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Would you permit us a peek at your breakdown of the 17 non-SNP Scottish MP's?
A frequent poster in the YouGov comments section revealed he ran six YouGov response accounts-3 nominal Con 3 nominal Lab. He is committed left. How many more such people respondon a very frequent basis?
I do think/hope that this chart could prove to be one of the most significant of the election and well done to Sunil for collating it. It shows a consistent and increasing swing to the Tories in the phone polls indicative of a lead by polling day of maybe 4%. This is being masked by Yougov in particular which is showing a swing back to Labour and dragging the average back to flat.
I don't think anyone can be completely confident about who is right and who is wrong in this polling but one delivers one of David's surprises and one delivers another. In court cases that are not clear cut one of the tests is which side would you rather be on? I think in this case I would rather be on the side of the phones.
Two of the phone pollsters, ICM and Mori, do not prompt for UKIP. They also produce the lowest UKIP numbers. That seems unlikely to be a coincidence.
ICM's figure of 7% for UKIP was implausibly low. But, the usual range of 10-13% seems realistic to me. I know enough Con/UKIP floating voters to know that fear of a Labour/SNP government will push some of them back to the Conservatives.
I do think/hope that this chart could prove to be one of the most significant of the election and well done to Sunil for collating it. It shows a consistent and increasing swing to the Tories in the phone polls indicative of a lead by polling day of maybe 4%. This is being masked by Yougov in particular which is showing a swing back to Labour and dragging the average back to flat.
I don't think anyone can be completely confident about who is right and who is wrong in this polling but one delivers one of David's surprises and one delivers another. In court cases that are not clear cut one of the tests is which side would you rather be on? I think in this case I would rather be on the side of the phones.
Two of the phone pollsters, ICM and Mori, do not prompt for UKIP. They also produce the lowest UKIP numbers. That seems unlikely to be a coincidence.
Nick Sparrow (ex ICM) wrote on here that not including UKIP in the prompt is basic bad practice. So it seems more likely to produce wrong results than not.
"The established conventions for question design in market research would be to ask for a spontaneous response, i.e without mentioning any possible choices, or prompt with all the main alternatives.
By this yardstick it becomes difficult to justify continuing to omit mention of UKIP at least, and arguably other smaller parties as well, as they appear to add up to a choice for almost one in five of those who would vote in a new election."
A frequent poster in the YouGov comments section revealed he ran six YouGov response accounts-3 nominal Con 3 nominal Lab. He is committed left. How many more such people respondon a very frequent basis?
Welcome mitchi. Now that is interesting. A certain éminence grise on here used to pretend to YouGov that he was a Sun reader, of course.
Not easy indulging in this tactical voting stuff is it? Given that the models and pollsters are indicating a 99% probability of the SNP taking Dundee West comfortably I think now I will stick with what I believe. If there had been a hint it was going to be close I would have voted Labour but there isn't.
It isn't.
Seems the Lib Dems have spent most of the week doing things to annoy us Tories
It is good to see that you have the courage of your convictions Jack and don't indulge in any of that cowardly convergence but for me you have the Tories way too high (30 seats) the Lib Dems too high, Labour and the SNP too low.
I do think/hope that this chart could prove to be one of the most significant of the election and well done to Sunil for collating it. It shows a consistent and increasing swing to the Tories in the phone polls indicative of a lead by polling day of maybe 4%. This is being masked by Yougov in particular which is showing a swing back to Labour and dragging the average back to flat.
I don't think anyone can be completely confident about who is right and who is wrong in this polling but one delivers one of David's surprises and one delivers another. In court cases that are not clear cut one of the tests is which side would you rather be on? I think in this case I would rather be on the side of the phones.
Two of the phone pollsters, ICM and Mori, do not prompt for UKIP. They also produce the lowest UKIP numbers. That seems unlikely to be a coincidence.
ICM's figure of 7% for UKIP was implausibly low. But, the usual range of 10-13% seems realistic to me. I know enough Con/UKIP floating voters to know that fear of a Labour/SNP government will push some of them back to the Conservatives.
How sound is your Tory candidate in Luton South?
I know very little about her. The Conservatives aren't making an effort here.
A frequent poster in the YouGov comments section revealed he ran six YouGov response accounts-3 nominal Con 3 nominal Lab. He is committed left. How many more such people respondon a very frequent basis?
Welcome mitchi. Now that is interesting. A certain éminence grise on here used to pretend to YouGov that he was a Sun reader, of course.
Perhaps this explains why YouGov has repeatedly asked me the make, type, age and provenance of my car over the last couple of months.
Comments
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Götterdämmerung
I'm the only pber ever to put Götterdämmerung in to a thread header
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/02/28/are-we-entering-the-twilight-of-the-leadership-of-dave/
Of course, I am assuming you are talking about how you are going to follow the election coverage.....
seems fair.
However, it's taken a more general meaning to be the end of any era whereby the previously powerful are overcome, particularly by the efforts of the heroic everyman.
The inference being that the Scottish political 'gods' i.e. the Labour machine is about to witness its own descent into night. One could argue the literality of the metaphor as after the twilight and the night is a new dawn whereas in both settings, the assumption is that it's permanent. Furthermore, the gods lose their power both through their own actions of selfishness and quarrelling, and through human love rendering the gods redundant. There are enough parallels to make antifrank's creation perfect.
Prince Albert has a nice ring to it.
Currently, the Conservatives lead with six pollsters, Labour with three, and the Conservative leads are bigger.
@PaulGoodmanCH: If the Tories win more seats but Labour gains office, over half of party members think Cameron should remain leader http://t.co/Wmlme8uV2Y
Edit - Durr, just got the "joke".
As long as they aren't disabled pensioners I suppose.
Me meeting Prince Albert of Monaco would end in a diplomatic incident and possibly a war.
: a collapse (as of a society or regime) marked by catastrophic violence and disorder; broadly : downfall
And that's before considering that opinion itself might not have been that static over the course of an election campaign.
How did this thread get three different 'ring' strands so early?
My record of voting Tory in every general election that I could vote in remains unbroken
@patrickwintour: Nick Clegg in Times reopens apparently closed door to a coaliton with Labour, if dependent on SNP. http://t.co/lBaAgP9YR3
So you're more like Imperial Japan than Germany ?
McBanzai :-)
Murphy will face a serious dilemma if he hangs on. Does he stand for the Scottish Parliament and the role of First Minister or does he hang on in Westminster? If Labour have 5 Scottish MPs could they really risk a by election?
This shows another worrying consequence of the SNP tidal wave. We have got used to a Tory party with minimal Scottish input for nearly 20 years now but Scots have played a very full role in both Labour and the Lib Dems. That is about to change.
Con 310
Lab 265
LD 32
SNP 47
Even Kay Burley couldn't waffle on for that long .... could she ?? ....
The mathematical MOE of weighted polling is lower than that given by statistics (that's why they weight). The methodological MOE is substantial and obviously the pollsters don't like to talk about that. So the mathematical 3% figure is very useful for them!
I think, broadly, that's a credible forecast.
NB in June 2016
I feel that there is perhaps a natural skew that comes in with age, working patterns and lifestyle with internet polls.
I still regularly encounter people in the 65+ age group who have no access, nor interest, in the internet. Many have no great confidence in using it even if they do. They all have telephones.
A certain type of lifestyle and pattern/type of work is also likely to make someone more able/probable to respond. People with time on their hands.
I realise that weighting is supposed to correct these things, but I'm not sure that it adequately does.
(1) Everything has been overhyped. The SLab/LD collapse is limited. 40 seats change hand in England. Things basically carry on as they were with a much reduced Coalition majority.
(2) Labour do enough to get the Tories out. Anti-Tory tactical voting pattern dominates, boosting Labour (unwinding the Clegg effect of 2010). Labour/LD win where they challenge Tories.
(3) Canadian style tipping point reached, total SLab/LD collapse. Tory small majority based on hoovering up all LD seats and limiting losses to Labour through better turnout (a la 1992)
Interesting that Murphy has said he will do 5 years if he is returned to Westminster and also be FM as well, I think he has lost it or just accepts if he is lucky he will be back in London.
15 minutes 15 seconds
So silver surfers who are purple tinged may well get significantly upweighted even beyond their numbers.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-32561052
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9350
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9281
I live in a safe seat so can vote as I please. The useless incumbent will be re elected.
Surely loyalist like David L and TSE on the one nation side of the party will be repulsed by a KIPPER lite party
PS , shed load to pick from mind you
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the penulimate ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 28th April Projection) :
Con 306 (+1) .. Lab 247 (+1) .. LibDem 28 (-2) .. SNP 42 (NC) .. PC 3 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 20 seats short of a majority
Turnout Projection .. 67.5% (NC)
......................................................................................
"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :
Bury North - Con Hold
Pudsey - Likely Con Hold
Broxtowe - Likely Lab Gain
Warwickshire North - Likely Con Hold from TCTC
Cambridge - LibDem Hold
Ipswich - Con Hold
Watford - TCTC
Croydon Central - Con Hold
Enfield North - Likely Lab Gain
Cornwall North - TCTC
Great Yarmouth - Con Hold
Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold
Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain
Changes From 28 Apr - Warwickshire North moves from TCTC to Likely Con Gain
TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes
Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes
Gain/Hold - Over 2500
.......................................................................................
ARSE is sponsored by Auchentennach Fine Pies (Est 1745)
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain
LDs..Loss of faith..Tuition fees etc..
Lab Hamstrung by EDS
SNP.Nationalist fervour..often dissipates at the ballot Box
SLAB Hamstrung by the EDs
UKUP..Woolly..and has an image problem
Greens..Total fruitcakes.
"The established conventions for question design in market research would be to ask for a spontaneous response, i.e without mentioning any possible choices, or prompt with all the main alternatives.
By this yardstick it becomes difficult to justify continuing to omit mention of UKIP at least, and arguably other smaller parties as well, as they appear to add up to a choice for almost one in five of those who would vote in a new election."
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/08/07/take-polls-with-large-pinch-of-salt-do-not-consume-in-excess/
You're an established, informed and amusing poster but you're making yourself look very stupid.
Seems the Lib Dems have spent most of the week doing things to annoy us Tories
But I hope you are right.
I have Con at 304.